Year: 2025

Los Angeles Rams 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Quarterback

The Rams were at something of a crossroads at the quarterback position this off-season. With 2 years and 58 million left on his contract, none of which was guaranteed, Rams quarterback Matt Stafford wanted a contract adjustment and was willing to entertain a trade if he didn’t get what he wanted. Stafford reportedly had offers from the Giants and Raiders for significant pay raises and, while neither of those teams gave Stafford the comfortability and winning potential that the Rams did, they did give Stafford intriguing alternatives to consider. 

With Stafford set to go into his age 37, the Rams were hesitant to make significant long-term commitments to Stafford, but didn’t have a good alternative. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is one of the better and more accomplished backups in the league, with a career 97.6 QB rating in 64 starts, but he is also getting up there in age, heading into his age 34 season, and would have given the Rams a lower ceiling as a team, while being significantly more injury prone, as compared to Stafford. They could have gone with Garoppolo as a cheaper bridge option to a quarterback they would draft, but the draft was weak at the quarterback position this year, making this an inopportune time to need to draft a young quarterback.

In the end, the Rams probably did the best they could with the situation. They kept Stafford by giving him a raise over the next two years, without having to match the reported 50+ million per year the Giants and Raiders were willing to pay Stafford and without making any commitments to Stafford beyond his age 38 season in 2026, upping his total salary over the next two season from 58 million to 84 million and mostly guaranteeing it all. 

In the draft, the Rams traded out of the first round and got an extra first round pick in 2026 for doing so, giving them a pair of first round picks in a much better quarterback draft next off-season. The plan may be to draft Stafford’s successor next year, with Stafford having one year left on his contract, or potentially even to trade Stafford next otf-season if needed and go with a combination of Garoppolo and a rookie in 2025 instead.

For now Stafford remains as the starter with Garoppolo as the backup. Stafford completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions last season, while receiving a 74.7 PFF grade, 21st among quarterbacks. However, that was actually his worst PFF grade in a healthy season since 2015, so it’s possible he is starting to decline and could decline further in 2025. I wouldn’t expect him to totally fall off in 2025, but his best days may be behind him at this point. Still, with Stafford and Garoppolo, this is a better quarterback room than a lot of other teams have. 

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One concern with Stafford, in addition to his age, is that his cap hit will be 17.00% of the cap in 2025 and is projected to be 15.72% of the cap in 2026. Those would be the 2nd and 4th highest cap hit percentages of any quarterback to win the Super Bowl in the salary cap era, as having a high cap hit makes it significantly harder to fill out the rest of your roster with enough talent for a team to go all the way. At this stage of his career, Stafford probably needs a great roster around him to compete at the highest level. Fortunately, the Rams have done a great job finding talent through the draft in recent years, allowing them to keep the cost of the rest of this roster down, while still remaining competitive. 

What makes the Rams’ strong drafting in recent years even more impressive is the fact that they’ve had just one first round pick and four top-50 picks in their past nine drafts, as a result of trades down and aggressive trades for veterans, many of whom are no longer on the roster. One of their many draft steals outside of the top-50 and arguably the best of the bunch is Puka Nacua, who has developed into one of the best wide receivers in the league, despite only being drafted in the 5th round in 2023. 

Nacua finished his rookie season as PFF’s 10th ranked wide receiver with a 87.9 PFF grade and had a 105/1486/6 slash line with 2.59 yards per route run. In 2024, his PFF grade went up to 92.8, 1st in the league among wide receivers, and his yards per route run went up to 3.56, first in the league among wide receivers by a wide margin, with the second ranked AJ Brown averaging 2.99 yards per route run. Nacua’s overall production fell to 79/990/3 in 2024, but that was because he missed six games with injury. His per 17 game numbers were 122/1530/5, which would have exceeded his rookie year numbers. Still only in his age 24 season, Nacua has the potential to lead the league in receiving in 2025 if he can stay healthy for the whole season.

The Rams also might have upgraded opposite Nacua as well. Cooper Kupp was once one of the best wide receivers in the league, but age and injury had slowed him in recent years, leading to him having just a 67/710/6 slash line with 1.99 yards per route run in 12 games last season, which led to the Rams releasing him ahead of a 20 million non-guaranteed salary for his age 32 season in 2025 and then giving that money to Davante Adams, who signed on a 2-year, 44 million dollar deal.

Adams is actually older than Kupp, going into his age 33 season, so he comes with some risk, but he doesn’t have Kupp’s injury history, missing just three games in the past four seasons, and he was the better of the two receivers last season, finishing with a 85/1063/8 slash line in 14 games and averaging 2.04 yards per route run. It’s reasonable to expect some decline from him in 2025, but the Rams don’t need him to be a #1 receiver and, as far as #2 receivers go, he should be an above average one, barring a massive decline. 

The Rams will probably have an upgrade at the #3 receiver spot as well. They didn’t add anyone, but they let go of DeMarcus Robinson, which should be addition by subtraction, as he averaged just 0.99 yards per route run last season and will be replaced primarily by Tutu Atwell, who averaged 2.19 yards per route run in a limited role last season. Atwell probably won’t carry that efficiency into a larger role and he only has a 1.60 yards per route run average in his career, but the 2021 2nd round pick has always had talent and is only going into his age 26 season, so it shouldn’t be hard for him to be more efficient than Robinson. The Rams also have Jordan Whittington, who was even more efficient (2.50 yards per route run), albeit in an even smaller role last season as a 6th round rookie. He probably will have a significantly smaller role than Atwell this season, but he figures to rotate in from time to time and has a lot of upside as far as #4 receivers go.

The tight end position was not a big part of this offense last season, as they targeted tight ends on just 15.3% of targets, 5th fewest in the league, as opposed to the wide receiver position, which received a league leading 74.5% of targets. That will likely remain the case again in 2025, though that has more to do with their talent at wide receiver than their lack of talent at the tight end position. Colby Parkinson struggled with 0.98 yards per route run last season as their primary tight end and he only has a career 1.13 yards per route run average, but he was only starting because Tyler Higbee missed most of the season with injury, limited to three games.

Higbee, who has a career 1.36 yards per route run average, including 1.89 yards per route run in very limited action last season, should be healthier this season. Higbee’s age is a concern, going into his age 32 season, but the Rams used their 2nd round pick on Terrance Ferguson to compensate for Higbee’s aging. The Rams rarely use two tight end sets, but Higbee and Ferguson figure to both see action, potentially splitting the starters’ snaps. With Higbee back and Ferguson being added, Parkinson could easily be relegated to the #3 tight end spot, which would mean he would play very little. With Puka Nacua likely to be healthier, Davante Adams likely being an upgrade over Cooper Kupp, DeMarcus Robinson’s absence being addition by subtraction, the addition of Terrance Ferguson, and a likely healthier season from Tyler Higbee, there is a good chance this receiving corps is significantly better in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Grade: A

Running Backs

Another late round steal the Rams have found in recent years is running back Kyren Williams, a 2022 5th round pick who has been their feature back for the past two seasons, totaling 228 carries in just 12 games in 2023 and then 316 carries (3rd in the NFL) in 16 games last season. Williams was a lot more effective in 2023 though. In 2023 he had a 5.02 yards per carry average, a 3.34 yards per carry average after contact, a 59.6% carry success rate, a 22.4% missed tackle rate, and a 80.3 PFF grade, but in 2024 he had a 4.11 yards per carry average, a 2.72 yards per carry average after contact, a 50.9% carry success rate, a 15.8% missed tackle rate, and a 69.0 PFF grade. 

In 2025, the Rams may try to lessen his workload in hopes of getting Williams back to a higher level of efficiency. They drafted Blake Corum in the 3rd round of last year’s draft to potentially take some of the load off Williams, but he had an underwhelming rookie season, averaging just 3.59 yards per carry across 58 carries with 2.40 yards per carry after contact, a 43.1% carry success rate, and a long run of 12 yards. Corum could be better in his second season in the league though and, if he’s not, the Rams added Jarquez Hunter in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them added insurance. Both Corum and/or Hunter could cut into Williams’ workload this season to give him more of a breather, which could help him be more efficient. 

Corum and/or Hunter could also cut into Williams’ passing down role, as he’s also played a significant role in passing situations over the past two seasons, but has averaged just 0.58 yards per route run and 4.41 yards per target. Corum averaged 1.81 yards per route run as a rookie, but he only had 7 catches and ran 32 routes, so it’s a very small sample size. Hunter, meanwhile, had 68 catches in his collegiate career, a decent, but unspectacular number. This backfield has potential if they can figure out roles and get Williams back close to his 2023 form, but this group also has some downside if none of their backups develop and Williams doesn’t bounce back.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Rams also got a steal when they signed Alaric Jackson as an undrafted free agent in 2021. In four seasons in the league, he has finished with PFF grades of 70.2, 64.1, 66.2, and 78.3 in four seasons in the league, while making 29 starts in the past two seasons. Jackson is no longer on his rookie deal, but the Rams got a steal when they re-signed him to a 3-year, 56.3 million dollar deal ahead of free agency this off-season, when he almost definitely would have exceeded the 4-year, 82 million dollar deal that the lesser Dan Moore got if he had hit free agency. Jackson might not quite repeat his career best 2024 campaign in 2025, but he’s been a solid player throughout his career and is still in his prime in his age 27 season. 

Right guard Kevin Dotson was originally added via trade, but he too was a steal, as the Rams got him for a swap of late round picks and he has received PFF grades of 85.2 and 81.3 in two seasons with the Rams, while making 30 starts. That performance hasn’t come completely out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 66.2, 64.5, and 65.4 in three seasons with the Steelers before joining the Rams, but he has obviously taken his game to another level since being traded. He was kept as a free agent last off-season on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal that will be a steal if he continues performing at the same level. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect that to happen for at least one more season.

One mistake the Rams made on the offensive line was signing Jonah Jackson to a 3-year, 52.5 million dollar deal last off-season. Jackson missed significant time with injury in 2024, then got moved to center upon his return, and subsequently benched, playing just four games in total. However, the Rams were able to trade him and get out of the rest of his contract, so even that mistake didn’t hurt them very much. Steve Avila, a 2023 2nd round pick who was originally supposed to move from guard to center to accommodate Jackson, never actually saw any regular season action at center and had a 67.1 PFF grade in 10 starts at guard (7 games missed due to injury) last season, after a 61.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at guard as a rookie. Now going into his third season in the league, Avila looks likely to remain at guard long-term and could have his best season yet in 2025 if he can stay healthy.

With Avila sticking at guard, the Rams needed to find an upgrade at center after 2024 6th round pick Beaux Limmer had a 57.6 PFF grade in 14 starts last season. They did that by reuniting with Coleman Shelton, who spent 2019-2023 with the Rams. Shelton only finished above 60 on PFF in one of those seasons, but it was his final season in 2023 (64.5), when he made a then career high 17 starts and he repeated that season again in 2024 with the Bears, when he had a 66.4 PFF grade across 17 starts, earning a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal to return to the Rams. Shelton doesn’t have a high upside and is going into his age 30 season, but he could remain a decent starter and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Limmer, who will now be a reserve.

Rob Havenstein rounds out the offensive line at right tackle, entering his 11th season with the Rams at that spot. Havenstein has made 141 starts in 10 seasons, while finishing above 70 on PFF in eight of those seasons, including five straight, but he is heading into his age 33 season and could decline in 2024, perhaps significantly. The Rams’ depth is also a concern, with Limmer as the top reserve center, Justin Dedich as their top reserve guard and David Quessenberry as their top reserve tackle. Dedich is a 2024 undrafted free agent who had a 56.6 PFF grade across three starts as a rookie, while Quessenberry has 30 career starts, including 17 in 2021 when he had a 80.7 PFF grade, but he fell to a 58.4 PFF grade across 110 snaps last season and now is in his age 35 season. This is a talented offensive line overall, but it’s not without concerns.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Rams have had just one first round pick in the past nine drafts, as a result of trades for veterans and trades down for more picks. The Rams made that one first round pick count though, taking Jared Verse with the 19th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Verse finished his rookie year with a 86.2 PFF grade, 9th among edge defenders, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 16 hits, and a 15.9% pressure rate, en route to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. It’s possible he’s not quite as efficient pressuring the quarterback again in 2025 because development isn’t always linear, but his sack total should go up and his ceiling is sky high. It’s likely he will develop into one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come, while contending for Defensive Player of the Year awards, even if he does happen to take a step back in year two.

The rest of this edge defender position is a concern though. A 2023 3rd round pick, Byron Young had a decent rookie season with a 63.5 PFF grade across 967 snaps, but took a step back in his second season in the league with a 59.9 PFF grade across 844 snaps. He could bounce back in 2025 and could even have his best season yet in his third season in the league, but he is an underwhelming starter, especially given how many snaps the Rams have had him play over the past two seasons.

Young will likely continue playing a heavy snap count, as the Rams don’t have much in the way of depth. Michael Hoecht, their top reserve a year ago, is no longer with the team. He only had a 61.3 PFF grade, but he was the only other Rams edge defender to play more than 100 snaps and he was replaced by a third round pick in Josaiah Stewart, who has more potential long-term, but could struggle in the short-term, especially if he has to play around the same snap count as Hoecht did last season (639 snaps). Other reserve options include Brennan Jackson, a 2024 5th round pick who played 47 snaps as a rookie, and Nick Hampton, a 2023 5th round pick who has played 78 snaps in two seasons in the league. Jared Verse significantly elevates the overall grade of this group, but the rest of this group is a concern.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Rams also have a pair of promising young interior defenders, 2023 3rd round pick Kobie Turner and 2024 2nd round pick Braden FIske. Turner finished last season with 8 sacks, 3 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate, while Fiske finished with 8.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate. Fiske struggled against the run, but Turner played well in that aspect as well and finished with a 74.9 PFF grade overall, 18th best among interior defenders. Turner also had an impressive rookie season in 2023, ranking 9th among interior defenders with a 83.8 PFF grade, while totaling 9 sacks, 8 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Turner could easily develop into one of the best interior defenders in the league for years to come, while Fiske could join him if he can improve as a run defender.

The Rams also added to this group this off-season by signing Poona Ford to a 3-year, 27.6 million dollar deal. Ford has finished above 70 on PFF five times in seven seasons in the league, with three seasons over 80, including a 85.1 PFF grade across 604 snaps last season. Ford is at his best against the run, but has also added 11.5 sacks, 29 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate in 101 career games, including 3 sacks, 7 hits, and a 6.4% pressure rate last season. He is now heading into his age 30 season, but even if he declines somewhat, he should still remain an above average player. He’s essentially replacing Bobby Brown, who was a solid run defender and had a 63.2 PFF grade overall last season, but he only had a 1.4% pressure rate. Ford figures to rotate heavily with Turner and Fiske and adds even more talent to what was already a strong position group.

With Turner, Fiske, and Ford as their top-3 options, the Rams don’t have much need for depth at the interior defender position, but injuries could strike and force their deeper reserves into more significant roles. Desjuan Johnson is a 2023 7th round pick who has played 222 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, Tyler Davis is a 2024 6th round pick who was mediocre with a 51.7 PFF grade across 298 snaps as a rookie, while Ty Robinson is a 5th round rookie. They aren’t great options, but this is still a talented group overall because of their top-3.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Another potential steal the Rams found is Omar Speights, who went undrafted last year, but became a starter in week 8 after Troy Reeder got hurt and he proved to be an immediate upgrade, finishing his rookie season with a 66.8 PFF grade across 419 snaps, as opposed to a 57.9 PFF grade across 372 snaps for Reeder. Speights is still unproven and his rookie season could prove to be a fluke, but he has the potential to be a decent every down starter long-term. Reeder returns and will at least compete for a starting job in 2025, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league, on an average of just 339 snaps per season, and he was only in the starting lineup out of desperation last season, so he’s not guaranteed to get his starting job back and, if he did, he would likely continue struggling, perhaps even more so, now in his age 31 season.

The Rams lost free agent Christian Rozeboom, who led this position with 828 snaps played last season, but he struggled with a 59.0 PFF grade. To replace him, the Rams signed Nate Landman, who figures to compete for a starting job and who would likely be an upgrade. The 2022 undrafted free agent has finished with PFF grades of 72.0 and 65.7 over the past two seasons respectively, over snap counts of 809 and 543 respectively. He is at his best against the run, with PFF grades of 85.4 and 73.9, while finishing below 60 in coverage in both seasons. At the very least, he should play a situational role as a run stopper, but he might end up in a bigger role than that, giving the alternatives. The Rams also used a 5th round pick on Chris Paul, but he figures to be a liability if forced into a significant role as a rookie. This is an underwhelming position group overall, but the Rams at least have some intriguing options. 

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Rams’ secondary remains essentially the same as last season, when they were a decent, but unspectacular group. Cobie Durant was their highest rated cornerback, although largely by default, as he had just a 63.7 PFF grade across 15 starts. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Durant showed potential as a rookie with a 73.3 PFF grade across 281 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that into a larger role in his second season in the league, with a 56.9 PFF grade across 642 snaps, before taking a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024. In 2025, he could continue being decent, but he could also potentially regress.

Darious Williams was the Rams’ other outside cornerback last season and he was mediocre with a 60.0 PFF grade across 11 starts. He’s had a solid career, with six straight seasons of 60 or better on PFF, including three seasons above 70, but last season was the worst of those six seasons and now he’s heading into his age 32 season, so he could continue declining. He did have a 79.5 PFF grade as recently as 2023, so he may have some bounce back potential, but his best days are almost definitely behind him.

In sub packages, safety Quentin Lake would most frequently move to the slot and between the two positions Lake led this secondary with 1,070 snaps played last season. The 2022 6th round pick flashed talent in his first two seasons in the league, with PFF grades of 71.7 and 71.2 across snap counts of 63 and 451 respectively, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role in 2024, finishing with a decent but underwhelming 62.9 PFF grade in 2024. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season, so he could have some untapped potential, but most likely his 2025 season will be similar to his 2024 season.

Kamren Curl was the other starting safety. He was solid with a 66.2 PFF grade, which was actually the lowest single season grade of his 5-year career. The 2020 7th round pick has finished in the 60s on PFF in four of five seasons in the league and maxed out at 82.9 in 2022, though that will likely prove to be a fluke. He’s still relatively young in his age 26 season and he should have another solid season, with the potential for more.

When Lake moves to the slot in sub packages, Kamren Kitchens comes in to take his spot at safety. The 2024 3rd round pick had a solid rookie season in a part-time role, finishing with a PFF grade of 67.7 across 514 snaps. He has the potential to take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025 and, if injuries knock out either of their starters, Kitchens seems prepared to step in and start for an extended period of time if needed. The Rams also have another second year safety, Jaylen McCollough. He had a 62.0 PFF grade across 336 snaps last season, which isn’t bad, but he didn’t play as well as Kitchens and he went undrafted, while Kitchens went in the 3rd round, so McCollough will almost definitely remain behind Kitchens on the depth chart.

At cornerback, the Rams have veteran Ahkello Witherspoon as a depth option, as well as 2022 6th round pick Derion Kendrick, who is coming back from a torn ACL that cost him all of 2024. Witherspoon has finished above 60 on PFF in six of eight seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70, while starting 62 of 90 games played over that stretch. He’s now going into his age 30 season and only had a 61.7 PFF grade across 493 snaps last season, but, as far as reserve options go, he’s a pretty good one. Kendrick, meanwhile, played snap counts of 483 and 857 in 2022 and 2023 before missing last season with injury, but he struggled with PFF grades of 43.7 and 59.8 respectively and now he’s coming off of a major injury, which hurts his projection further. He should be buried on the depth chart and only play in case of emergencies. This is likely to remain a decent, but unspectacular secondary in 2025.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Rams used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker in Joshua Karty. He finished his rookie year slightly below average, costing his team 2.80 points compared to an average kicker. He made 85.3% of his field goals, but had a relatively low level of difficulty on his kicks, attempting just 13 kicks of 40+ yards last season, missing 3 of them, while missing twice from inside 40. He still has a high upside though and could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Rams finished last season with a 10-7 record, despite having the 10th most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league, including the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury on offense. They should be healthier this season and their schedule looks likely to be easier, but they ranked just 16th in first down rate differential and 22nd in yards per play differential last season, which is more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. The Rams were a lot better down the stretch once they got fully healthy, but it is unrealistic to expect any team to be fully healthy for a whole season. Additionally, there is the issue of quarterback Matt Stafford’s age, now in his age 37 season, which is around when a lot of quarterbacks suffer significant declines. If that happened, that would obviously have a significant negative effect on this team. The Rams also have by far the toughest schedule of any team in their division.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in NFC West

Tennessee Titans 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Quarterback

The Titans made the playoffs in three straight seasons from 2019-2021, including an AFC Championship appearance, but they fell apart pretty quickly, finishing the 2022 season 7-10 and the 2023 season 6-11. After the 2023 season, the Titans decided to go in a new direction. They fired old school, defensive minded Head Coach Mike Vrabel, who was their coach for all three of their playoff appearances, and replaced him with a young offensive mind in Brian Callahan, hoping he would help develop 2023 2nd round pick Will Levis, who was set to be the full-time starter in his second season in the league in 2024. At the same time, the Titans moved on from long-time feature back Derrick Henry, opting for a younger, speedier back in Tony Pollard, and they spent big in free agency to add a #1 receiver in Calvin Ridley.

The results were not what the Titans were hoping for, as they fell even further to 3-14. Levis failed to develop in his second season in the league and was benched on multiple occasions for veteran backup Mason Rudolph, who wasn’t much better. The big issue for the Titans in recent years has been drafting. They haven’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2019, which coincidentally was the start of their 3-year playoff run. Since 2020, they haven’t drafted a single player in the first round who has proven to be worth the pick yet, taking several busts in the process. Former head coach Mike Vrabel did the best he could to get the most out of a roster devoid of talent in his final years with the team, but new head coach Brian Callahan could not do the same, resulting in last year’s terrible season.

The good news after a terrible season like that is you get a high draft pick, in the Titans’ case #1 overall, but this was one of the weaker drafts at the top in recent memory, so the timing of that #1 overall pick could have been better. Without a clear option at #1 overall, the Titans were faced with a choice atop the draft. They could have stayed put and taken the best non-quarterback in the draft, likely either edge defender Abdul Carter or wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, giving Will Levis another chance with hopefully a better team around him, with veteran insurance at quarterback being brought in just in case. They could have traded down with a team desperate for a quarterback, picking up a bunch of draft picks to build around Levis or whoever their long-term quarterback eventually ended up being. 

Ultimately, the Titans opted to stay put and take quarterback Cam Ward, starting over at the quarterback position with a prospect that has a high upside and that was definitely the top quarterback in the class, but that would not have been as highly ranked in some other recent quarterback classes. The Titans did not add a veteran quarterback this off-season, meaning their only other alternative to starting Ward week 1 is to continue starting Levis until Ward is ready, which seems unlikely, given that Levis has a QB rating of just 82.7 in 21 career starts. 

Ward has the traits to be a franchise quarterback long-term, but will definitely have some growing pains as a rookie, especially given the state of the roster around him, which is slightly improved compared to a year ago, but probably isn’t significantly improved. With Ward as the starter and Levis as the backup, this is likely to be one of the weaker quarterback rooms in the league this season, but they at least have upside at the position, if Ward proves to be ahead of schedule in his development.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Titans haven’t drafted a player in the first round who has proven to be worth that pick since 2019. While some of those players have been complete busts, the jury is still out on a few as well. This year’s first round pick, Cam Ward, is an obvious one that the jury is still out on, but additionally the jury is still out on their 2023 and 2024 first round picks. Needing to rebuild their offensive line, the Titans selected Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick in 2023 and then they selected JC Latham with the 7th overall pick in 2024.

Skoronski has made 31 starts at left guard over the past two seasons, but has been about a replacement level starter, with PFF grades of 61.6 and 60.3. Ideally, you’d want more than that out of a player selected 11th overall, especially one who plays guard, which tends to be a relatively easy position to find replacement level starters at, but Skoronski has the upside to take a big step forward in 2025, still only in his age 24 season. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, but it’s at least a strong possibility and this offensive line would benefit significantly if that happened.

Latham, meanwhile, was also a replacement level starter as a rookie, with a 61.8 PFF grade in 17 starts at left tackle. Latham also has the upside to take a big step forward in 2025, especially since he will be moving to an easier position at right tackle. At left tackle, the Titans have one of the two big free agent signings they made on the offensive line, former Steeler Dan Moore, who signed on a 4-year, 82 million dollar deal. Moore looks like an overpay, however, as the 2021 4th round pick was about a replacement level left tackle through his four seasons in Pittsburgh, finishing with PFF grades of 57.8, 62.4, 51.8, and 67.2 across a total of 66 starts. Now in his age 27 season, Moore likely is who he is at this stage of his career and is unlikely to get significantly better.

At right guard, the Titans signed Kevin Zeitler, who only got a 1-year, 9 million dollar deal, but who has a chance to be a more impactful signing than Moore in 2025. A 13-year veteran, Zeitler has consistently been one of the best guards in the league throughout his career, finishing above 65 on PFF in every season, including eleven seasons above 70, and four seasons above 80, most recently a 86.5 PFF grade across 16 starts in 2024. Zeitler is now going into his age 35 season, so he could drop off significantly in 2025, compared to his 2024 campaign which was the 2nd highest ranked of his career, but there is a good chance he remains at least an above average starter.

At center, the Titans have Lloyd Cushenberry, who was a big signing last off-season, coming over from the Broncos on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal. Cushenberry had an impressive final season in Denver, finishing with a 73.2 PFF grade, but he was a one-year wonder, receiving grades of 40.5, 64.2, and 56.2 in his first three seasons in the league prior to his 2023 breakout season. In his first season in Tennessee in 2024, Cushenberry disappointed with a 55.4 PFF grade and then went down for the season after eight games with a torn achilles. Now going into 2025, it could take some time for Cushenberry to return to full health and, even if he does return to full health close to immediately, there is no guarantee he will bounce back to his 2023 form, which could prove to be a fluke, now having finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league.

Even with two new starters being added this off-season, the Titans still have questionable depth on the offensive line. Of the ten players who made starts on the offensive line last season, only four remain, with three of them being starters. The fourth is backup center Corey Levin, who had a 55.5 PFF grade across 133 snaps last season and has overall made just five starts in eight seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF just once. Other reserve options include 5th round rookie offensive tackle Jackson Slater, as well as free agent additions Brenden Jaimes, Blake Hance, and Oli Udoh, all of whom are underwhelming reserve options.

James, a 2021 5th round pick, has played just 274 snaps in four seasons in the league, while finishing below 60 on PFF in three of those seasons. Oli Udoh has made 19 starts in six seasons in the league, with 16 of them coming in 2021, when he had a 54.4 PFF grade. Blake Hance, meanwhile, has made just ten starts in six seasons in the league, with eight of them coming in 2021, when he had a 56.7 PFF grade. This offensive line should be better than last season by default, but most of their starters could be replacement level starters, while their depth options are underwhelming as well.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Calvin Ridley was a big addition for the Titans last off-season. He had a solid first season in Tennessee, finishing with a 64/1017/4 slash line and 1.86 yards per route run, though he might not have quite been good enough to justify a contract that made him the 15th highest paid wide receiver in the league. The bigger problem was the rest of the Titans’ receiving corps though, as they didn’t have a single pass catcher aside from Ridley surpass 500 yards receiving.

This off-season, they overhauled their wide receiver room, losing every wide receiver except Ridley who had more than 100 yards receiving last season, but they aren’t necessarily better this season, as their replacements are an underwhelming bunch consisting of veteran additions Van Jefferson and Tyler Lockett and a pair of 4th round rookies in Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. Tyler Lockett is by far the most accomplished of the bunch, averaging 1.69 yards per route run and a 66/859/6 slash line in 10 seasons in the league, but that fell to a 1.10 yards per route run average and a 49/600/2 slash line in 2024 and now he heads into his age 33 season. His best days are almost definitely behind him and he is likely to continue struggling in 2025. Van Jefferson, meanwhile, has just a career average of 1.06 yards per route run, including 0.64 yards per route run over the past two seasons. The two rookies are also unlikely to contribute in any sort of significant positive way in year one. 

The Titans still have Treylon Burks, who has been a bust since being selected in the first round in 2022, with 53 total catches and 1.17 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, including 4 catches and 0.43 yards per route run last season. He was buried on the depth chart last season, even in a weak position group and, even in another weak position group this season, that could easily remain the case. He’s only going into his age 25 season and could have some theoretical upside, but he is running out of time to display that upside.

Calvin Ridley will obviously remain the #1 option. Last season was his third 1000+ yard season of his past five seasons, with the exceptions being an injury plagued 2021 season and a 2022 season lost to suspension, and he has a solid career average of 1.84 yards per route run. The problem is he’s now going into his age 31 season and could start to decline in 2025, which would be a big blow to an already concerning wide receiver group. He should remain their #1 wide receiver by default by a wide margin and could benefit from Cam Ward being added, but he might not be as effective as he was last season.

With the Titans’ issues at wide receiver last season, it’s unsurprising that the Titans relied heavily on tight ends in the passing game last season, ranking 11th in the NFL with 25.6% of their targets going to tight ends, a number that could go up in 2025, with the Titans’ wide receiver group now arguably worse than a year ago. The Titans used three different tight ends for significant roles in the passing game, with Chig Okonkwo, Josh Whyle, and Nick Vannett receiving 70, 37, and 20 targets respectively and averaging 1.25 yards per route run, 1.42 yards per route run, and 1.39 yards per route run respectively.

Vannett is no longer with the team, replaced by 4th round rookie Gunnar Helm, who could have a similar role in year one as Vannett, with the upside for more. Okonkwo was the top tight end last season and, while he had the lowest yards per route run average, the 2022 4th round pick has averaged 1.52 yards per route run in three seasons in the league and could see his 2025 average be closer to his career average than his 2024 average. Josh Whyle, a 2023 5th round pick, should remain the #2 tight end. He has averaged 1.47 yards per route run in two seasons in the league and should have a similar season in 2025. A decent tight end room helps somewhat, but the Titans’ lack of depth at the wide receiver position figures to be a big problem in 2025.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Tony Pollard was the Titans’ lead back last season with 260 carries. He only averaged 4.15 yards per carry, after averaging 3.99 yards per carry on 252 carries in his final season in Dallas in 2023, but Pollard did average 5.13 yards per carry across his first four seasons in the league from 2019-2022. Pollard only averaged 128 carries per season in those four seasons though, with a maximum of 193 carries. He benefited from being on a better Dallas offense in those seasons than the offense he is on in Tennessee, but it’s also very likely that Pollard would benefit from a smaller workload.

The Titans have mentioned giving him that smaller workload, which could be achieved if multiple things happen. For one, the Titans will need backup Tyjae Spears to stay healthy, as he averaged 7.0 carries per game in the 12 games he played last season, but missed five games, leading to Pollard averaging 22.0 carries per game in his absence, as opposed to 13.6 when both were healthy. The Titans could also get a third back involved in a bigger role, most likely 6th round rookie Kalel Mullings, a bigger back at 6-2 226, as opposed to the 6-0 215 Pollard and the 5-11 195 Spears. Mullings might not be ready for a big role in year one, but he at least has upside.

Mullings is not much of a pass catcher, with eight catches in his entire collegiate career, so both Spears and Pollard will remain involved in the passing game, perhaps even more so, given the state of the Titans’ receiving corps. Pollard had 57 targets to Spears’ 35 last season, but that is largely because Pollard played 16 games, to 12 for Spears. Spears was more efficient on his targets, taking them for 1.34 yards per route run and a 30/224/1 slash line, as opposed to 0.79 yards per route run and a 41/238/0 slash line for Pollard. Pollard does have a 1.12 yards per route run average for his career, but Spears has averaged 1.30 yards per route run in two seasons since going in the 3rd round in 2023, so he is the better pass catching option. If he can stay healthier, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Spears outproduce Pollard as a pass catcher. This is a decent, but unspectacular backfield overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Titans’ offense was a mess last season, their defense was actually decent, ranking 8th in yards per play allowed and 12th in first down rate allowed. The strength of the defense was the interior defender position, where all of their top-3 interior defenders finished with PFF grades above 70, with Jeffery Simmons receiving a 80.0 PFF grade across 806 snaps (10th among interior defenders on PFF), T’Vondre Sweat receiving a 76.1 PFF grade across 699 snaps (15th among interior defenders on PFF), and Sebastian Joseph-Day receiving a 70.2 PFF grade across 483 snaps (25th among interior defenders on PFF).

For Simmons, the dominant season was not surprising, as he has now finished above 80 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league. He’s been a bit inconsistent, receiving grades of 70.4, 71.9, and 68.4 respectively in his other three seasons, but even at his worst he is still an above average starter, and he is still very much in his prime in his age 28 season. An above average run defender and pass rusher, Simmons is one of the best all-around interior defenders in the league. 

Sweat could have another impressive season in 2025 as well, as he was only a 2nd round rookie last season and has a very high upside long-term. Sebastian Joseph-Day is the one with the highest possibility to regress, as the veteran interior defender has only finished above 70 on PFF twice in seven seasons in the league and now is going into his age 30 season. The flip side of that is he has only finished below 60 once in those seven seasons, so, barring a significant decline, he should remain at least a solid rotational player, but the odds are against him repeating last season’s performance.

With those three leading the way, there wasn’t much need for anyone else to play a significant role at the interior defender position, with James Lynch (243 snaps) and Keondre Coburn (125 snaps) being the only other two interior defenders to see snaps for the Titans in 2024, receiving PFF grades of 60.1 and 45.1 respectively. Both return for 2025 and could continue being deep reserves, though the Titans did add veteran journeyman Carlos Watkins as competition.

Watkins has been mostly decent in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in five of eight seasons in the league, albeit on an average of 271 snaps per season. He won’t need to play more snaps than that for the Titans in 2025, but he is now going into his age 32 season, so his age is becoming a concern. Lynch, meanwhile, has played just 882 snaps in five seasons in the league since being a 2020 a 4th round pick, while Coburn has played just 232 snaps in two seasons in the league since being a 2023 6th round pick. Given the talent at the top of the Titans’ interior defender depth, their lack of deep reserves isn’t a huge concern.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Titans did lose their top edge defender, Harold Landry, this off-season, after he received a 70.5 PFF grade across 878 snaps last season, the 5th most snaps played by any edge defender in the league last season. Landry was an underwhelming pass rusher, totaling 9 sacks, but only 6 hits and a 7.1% pressure rate, but he excelled as a run defender, ranking 6th among edge defenders on PFF in run defense grade. 

Landry will be replaced by free agent addition Dre’Mont Jones, who is kind of an opposite player, finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all six seasons in the league, but finishing below 60 in run defense grade in four of those six seasons. He only had 4 sacks last season, but added 10 hits and a 12.0% pressure rate. He’s a downgrade from Landry overall though, as he finished with just a 54.3 PFF grade overall last season, his third season below 60 overall in the past four seasons.

Jones will start opposite Arden Key, who was pretty good with a 69.7 PFF grade across 734 snaps last season, receiving grades above 60 for both his run defense and his pass rush. Key has now received PFF grades over 60 in four straight seasons, primarily playing well as a pass rusher, with 23.5 sacks, 40 hits, and a 10.8% pressure rate in 67 games over that stretch, but also developing into a capable run defender as well. Still in his late prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Key in 2025.

With Landry and Key both playing heavy snap counts last season, the Titans didn’t have much need for depth at the edge defender good, which is good because their top-2 reserves in terms of snaps played, Jaylen Harrell (286 snaps) and Ali Gaye (177 snaps), struggled mightily with PFF grades of 38.9 and 38.3 respectively, while combining for just a 4.0% pressure rate. With Landry gone and Dre’Mont Jones unlikely to play the same snap count as Landry did, the Titans needed to improve their edge defender depth and they sought to improve in that area this off-season by signing veteran Lorenzo Carter and using a second round pick on Oluwafemi Oladejo.

Oladejo could be a useful rotational player even as a rookie, while Carter is an underwhelming veteran, but should be an upgrade by default. In seven seasons in the league, Carter finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, but he fell to a 43.0 PFF grade across 410 snaps last season and now is going into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, even if he isn’t quite as bad in 2025 as he was in 2024. Swapping out Landry for Jones is a downgrade, but the Titans at least have better edge defender depth this season than last, albeit by default. 

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The position the Titans lost the most at this off-season was linebacker, as all five linebackers who played at least 200 snaps for them last season are no longer with the team. In their absence, the Titans’ only notable addition was Cody Barton, who is a decent, but unspectacular option. Barton has been a starter for the past three seasons, with snap counts of 894, 844, and 1,053 and he has mostly been decent, with PFF grades of 63.6, 53.9, and 66.1 respectively. The bigger problem is the other linebacker spot. 

Cedric Gray is probably the favorite to start there, but the 2024 4th round pick struggled with a 36.8 PFF grade across 48 snaps as a rookie. The Titans other options include 2024 7th round pick James Williams, who had a 51.9 PFF grade across 111 snaps as a rookie, Otis Reese, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has played just 178 career snaps on defense, Amari Burney, a 2023 6th round pick who has played just 190 career snaps on defense, Curtis Jacobs, a 2024 undrafted free agent who had a 39.8 PFF grade across 23 snaps as a rookie, and 2023 undrafted free agent Anfernee Orji, who had a 55.2 PFF grade in the first 147 snaps of his career last season. Whoever starts at the other linebacker spot figures to be a liability. With Cody Barton as the only competent linebacker on the roster, this is a concerning position group.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Titans looked like they had a good cornerback trio going into last season, but Chidobe Awuzie missed 9 games due to injury, L’Jarius Sneed missed 12 games, and while Roger McCreary only missed two, he had a down year compared to 2023. Going into 2025, Awuzie is no longer on the team, but Sneed should be healthier, while McCreary has bounce back potential. Sneed was added in a sign and trade last off-season at the price of a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal and a third round pick and, prior to last year’s lost season due to injury, he had PFF grades of 76.1 and 71.1 in his last two healthy seasons in 2022 and 2023 (33 starts). Still only in his age 28 season, Sneed has a good chance to bounce back in 2025 if he’s healthy, though that is not a guarantee, given the severity of his injury.

McCreary, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and seemed to break out in 2023 with a 71.3 PFF grade, after a 62.6 PFF grade as a rookie, but he then regressed back to a 61.3 PFF grade in 2024. Still, he’s only in his age 25 season and has always had a high upside, so he has a good chance to bounce back. With all of the issues the Titans had at cornerback last season, it was actually 5th round rookie Jarvis Brownlee who led this group in snaps with 911 and he is likely the favorite for the #3 cornerback job in 2025, with Awuzie no longer on the team, but Brownlee did struggle with a 59.4 PFF grade last season and isn’t a guarantee to take a step forward this season, in his second season in the league.

Brownlee’s primary competition for the #3 cornerback job is Darrell Baker, a 2022 undrafted free agent who had a 65.5 PFF grade across 626 snaps last season, after receiving a 52.9 PFF grade across 469 snaps in the first action of his career in 2023. He might be a better option, but he’s still very unproven. The Titans also have veteran journeyman Amani Oruwariye, who hasn’t finished above 60 on PFF since 2019 and who played just 286 snaps last season, as well as 6th round rookie Marcus Harris, who is unlikely to be ready to play a significant role as a rookie.

At safety, the Titans started last season with a solid duo of Amani Hooker and Quandre Diggs, who finished with PFF grades of 65.1 and 73.2 respectively, but Diggs missed the final nine games of the season and was replaced by Daryl Worley, who was an obvious downgrade. This season, Hooker remains, but Diggs and Worley are gone and Xavier Woods was added to start next to Hooker. Woods finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first seven seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70 and a career best 80.3 PFF grade as recently as 2023, but he fell to a career worst 57.0 PFF grade in 2024. Woods may have some bounce back potential, but he’s now going into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and, if he bounces back, it won’t be all the way back to his 2023 form.

Hooker, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league and he’s still in his prime in his age 27 season, though he has missed 20 games with injury over the past four seasons. If he misses more time this season, or if Woods misses time, the Titans would likely turn to either Mike Brown, a 2022 undrafted free agent who had a 69.2 PFF grade across 384 snaps last season, after a 60.3 PFF grade across 113 snaps in the first action of his career in 2023, or they could turn to 3rd round rookie Kevin Winston. Brown is a solid backup, but could struggle if forced into significant action as a starter, while Winston has potential, but probably is too raw to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. The Titans’ secondary should be better due to the return of L’Jarius Sneed from injury, but this group still has some concerns. 

Grade: B

Kicker

The Titans had Nick Folk as their kicker last season and he ranked second in the NFL with 10.48 points above average, but they opted not to bring him back, ahead of his age 41 season in 2025. Instead, the Titans signed veteran journeyman Joey Slye, who figures to be a big downgrade. The 6-year veteran has finished below average in four of six seasons in the league, costing his teams a total of 18.27 points below average in his career. He will likely continue to struggle in 2025.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Titans added quarterback Cam Ward with the #1 overall pick in the draft and made some off-season additions, but Ward is very raw as far as #1 overall pick quarterbacks go, they had some significant off-season losses, particularly on defense, and this roster is still underwhelming overall. They might not be quite as bad as they were a year ago, especially since they have one of the easiest schedules in the league, but they figure to remain one the worst teams in the league.

Update: The Titans have by far the easiest schedule in the division and Cam Ward has looked ahead of schedule in training camp and the pre-season. After some reanalysis on how much of an immediate impact rookies at different positions make, I give the Titans a slight edge in a wide open division.

Prediction: 7-10, 1st in AFC South

Las Vegas Raiders 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Raiders

Quarterback

The Raiders have been one of the least successful franchises in the league over the past couple decades, with just two winning seasons out of the last 22 and no playoff victories over that time span. This off-season, the Raiders tried an aggressive win now approach, perhaps in an attempt for some relevance, even though they were not close to being in contention, finishing the 2024 season with a 4-13 record, while ranking 25th in yards per play differential and 23rd in first down rate differential. 

The Raiders first started by hiring Pete Carroll as their head coach, opting to go with the experienced, proven, but soon-to-be-74-year-old Carroll rather than a young, up and coming coach who could be around for the long haul. Perhaps motivated by Carroll not wanting to wait around through a slower build, the Raiders then traded a third round pick for Geno Smith, Carroll’s former quarterback with the Seahawks, who was one of the best quarterbacks available this off-season, but is heading into his age 35 season and needed a 2-year, 75 million dollar extension to be kept past this season. The Raiders then used their first round pick, 6th overall, on running back Ashton Jeanty, who has the talent to make the most immediate impact of any rookie this year, but plays a position with a significantly shorter career span than most, making his selection another short-term, win now move.

Smith obviously elevates the Raiders’ floor at the quarterback position, completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 35 interceptions in 49 starts over the past three seasons, as opposed to the 64.6% completion, 6.48 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions that Raiders quarterback combined to throw for last season, but, given his age, he will likely decline in the next few years and, even if he doesn’t, he isn’t the type of quarterback who can lead a team on a deep playoff run without a really talented roster around him, a talented roster that gets a lot more difficult to build when you have a quarterback making as much annually as Smith does. The only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers and Smith’s cap hit is projected to be above that 11% cutoff in two of the next three seasons.

Smith will be backed up by Aidan O’Connell, who was probably the most successful of the three quarterbacks who started for the Raiders last season, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 6.63 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 7 starts. A 4th round pick in 2023, O’Connell also made 10 starts as a rookie and completed 62.1% of his passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He likely will never develop into a starting caliber quarterback, but he could prove to be a useful backup long-term. The Raiders also added long-term competition for him by taking Cam Miller in the 6th round, but he is likely going to be the third quarterback in his first season in the league. This Raiders’ quarterback room is better than a year ago, but it’s still probably about average.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Raiders used their 6th overall pick on running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is one of the best running back prospects of the past decade and plays a position that frequently comes into the NFL and makes a big impact right away. The downside is he plays a position that is usually pretty easy to find, either through cheap free agent signings or mid-round draft picks, and he plays a position with a high injury risk and a short long-term career span, but the Raiders liked Jeanty’s ability to impact this offense immediately so much that they were willing to overlook the downsides of taking a running back early.

Jeanty does fill a massive position of need for the Raiders, as they ranked 31st in carries, 32nd in rushing yards, and 32nd in yards per carry last season. They added Raheem Mostert earlier in the off-season, but he’s going into his age 33 season and is a backup at this stage of his career. Mostert had averaged 5.21 yards per carry in his previous six seasons prior to last season, but that came on just 111 carries per season, with 34 games missed due to injury over that stretch, and last season his yards per carry average fell all the way to 3.27 across 85 carries, so he is likely nearing the end of his line.

Mostert will compete with top holdover Sincere McCormick for the #2 running back job. McCormick went undrafted in 2022 and never had a carry until week 12 of last season, but he showed some potential in a very limited sample size with a 4.69 YPC average across 39 carries. Whoever wins the backup job will likely only see a few carries here and there with Jeanty as the clear lead back and, if Jeanty misses time with injury, any of the backups would probably be part of a timeshare in his absence.

The Raiders also still have Zamir White, who started the season as the lead back last season, but struggled mightily with a 2.82 YPC average and a league worst 26.2% carry success rate last season, leading to him being benched down the stretch and only finishing with 65 carries. The 2022 4th round pick showed some promise with 4.31 YPC across 121 carries in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, but he couldn’t translate that into a larger role. He may find himself as part of a committee if Jeanty misses time, but he is probably behind both McCormick and Mostert on the depth chart as of this writing. The Raiders also have 2024 6th round pick Dylan Laube, but he didn’t play a snap as a rookie, even with the Raiders’ lack of other good options, which isn’t a good sign for him long-term.

One concern with this backfield is the lack of a clear passing down back. Jeanty wasn’t used in the passing game much at the collegiate level and, given how much of a workload he figures to get on early downs, having another back come in for him in obvious passing situations to give him a rest makes sense, but Mostert has a career 0.90 yards per route run average, White has a career 0.81 yards per route run average, and, while McCormick has a career 1.16 yards per route run average, that is across just 25 routes. Mostert will probably get the first crack at the passing down role due to experience, but Jeanty will probably stay on the field for a fair share of passing downs as well and the Raiders may opt to just not use running backs heavily in the passing game. Ashton Jeanty significantly upgrades this backfield, but their lack of depth behind him, particularly pass catching depth, is a bit of a concern.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Despite the Raiders’ issues at quarterback last season, they did have a pair of 1000+ yard receivers, one of just two teams in the league with a pair of 1000+ yard receivers. That was in large part due to the lack of depth the Raiders had in terms of pass catchers, as tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers accounted for 47.6% of the team’s targets. The rest of the Raiders ‘ receiving corps isn’t significantly improved this season, so Bowers and Meyers should continue having huge target shares, this time with an improved passer under center.

Last season was Meyers first 1000+ year season of his 6-year career (87/1027/4), but his 1.76 yards per route run average was in line with his career 1.72 yards per route run average and he’s had some solid seasons in the past, finishing with between 729 and 866 receiving yards in each of the four seasons prior to last season. Given his projected high target share and his improved quarterback situation, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Meyers set a new career high in receiving yardage this season. 

Bowers, meanwhile, was the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and entered the league as one of the best receiving tight end prospects in recent memory, which he backed up as a rookie with a 112/1194/5 slash line and 2.02 yards per route run. Another year more experienced, with an upgrade under center, and again projected for a huge target share, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bowers exceed last season’s numbers either.

The Raiders did attempt to improve their receiving corps by using 2nd, 4th, and 6th round picks on wide receivers Jack Bech, Dont’e Thornton, and Tommy Mellott, though it is unclear if any of them will be able to contribute in a significant positive way as a rookie. Bech has the best chance to do so, given that he was drafted the highest, and will almost definitely be a starter, but he will be a distant third in the target pecking order at best. The Raiders also added Collin Johnson this off-season, but he has just 31 catches in 38 career games with a career 1.20 yards per route run average.

Tre Tucker was third on the team with 81 targets last season, but he managed just a 47/539/3 slash line with 0.84 yards per route run. The 2023 3rd round pick showed some promise in a limited role as a rookie with 1.48 yards per route run, but couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He may still have some untapped upside, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the rookie Bech ended up out-producing him in 2025, making Bech the nominal #2 receiver.

Backup tight end Michael Mayer will probably continue having at least somewhat of a role, after receiving 32 targets last season, but he only turned that into a 21/156/0 slash line, with 0.67 yards per route run. Mayer was a 2023 2nd round pick who showed some promise as a rookie, with a 1.11 yards per route run average, so he could be better in 2025, but he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot yet and might never do so. The Raiders have a pair of talented pass catchers, but this is a very top heavy position group.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Raiders’ offensive line mostly stays the same as last season, when they were a decent unit, ranking 14th in pass block grade and 20th in run block grade on PFF. The one major change is their primary starting center, Andre James, is no longer with the team, but he missed 6 starts last season and was their worst regular starter with a 55.6 PFF grade, so he won’t be missed. Jackson Powers-Johnson, who moved from guard to center when James was out last season, will be the full-time center this season, which is a better spot for him because that was his collegiate position. Powers-Johnson, a 2024 2nd round pick, had a decent rookie year with a 63.9 PFF grade in 14 starts and, now back at his natural position, he has a good chance to take a step forward in his second season in the league, potentially a big step forward.

When Powers-Johnson moved to center last season, Jordan Meredith took his place at guard. Meredith went undrafted in 2020 and only played 134 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, but he played surprisingly very well for the Raiders last season in eight starts, with a 80.8 PFF grade. It came in a small sample size and there is a good chance he regresses and cannot translate that to a season-long role, but he also still has a good chance to be at least a capable starter at worst.

Dylan Parham remains as the other guard. A 2022 3rd round pick, Parham also had a surprisingly good season in 2024, with a 74.3 PFF grade in 15 starts, after PFF grades of 61.9 and 60.4 in his first two seasons in the league (14 starts). His 2024 season wasn’t nearly as surprising as Meredith’s though, as he was a relatively high draft pick who saw significant action in his first two seasons in the league, so he has a better chance of continuing to play at the same level in 2025 than Meredith does.

At tackle, Kolton Miller and DJ Glaze remain as the starters on the left and right sides respectively. Miller was the Raiders’ best offensive lineman last season and has been for several years. The 2018 1st round pick took a couple years to develop, but he has received PFF grades of 70 or higher in five straight seasons, with four straight seasons over 80, including a 80.6 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2024. Miller is now heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but he’s starting from such a big base point that, even if he declines somewhat in 2025, he would still likely remain an at least an above average starting option. Glaze, meanwhile, was a 2024 3rd round pick who had a decent 66.1 PFF grade in 14 starts as a rookie and could take a step forward in his second season in the league.

To improve their depth, the Raiders used a pair of third round picks on offensive linemen, taking Charles Grant and Caleb Rogers. Grant will compete for the swing tackle job with Thayer Munford, a 2022 7th round pick who had made 18 starts in three seasons in the league, with mixed results, as he’s had PFF grades of 63.2, 74.1, and 45.9. Rogers, meanwhile, will probably be the primary backup center, as the Raiders don’t have another player aside from the starter Jackson Powers-Johnson who has ever played a snap at center in the NFL. 

Rogers could also play guard, but at guard he would have to compete with another off-season addition, veteran Alex Cappa. Cappa signed a 2-year, 11.02 million dollar deal and has made 96 starts over the past six seasons, so he would probably start at guard ahead of Rogers if need be, but Cappa fell to a 50.5 PFF grade across 17 starts last season, after five straight seasons above 60 on PFF prior to last season, so there is a good reason he had to settle for being a backup this off-season. This is a solid offensive line overall.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Raiders were actually pretty solid on defense last season, ranking 14th in yards per play allowed and 7th in first down rate allowed, but they didn’t bring back 6 of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last season and, as a result, could struggle to repeat last season’s performance. If there is one reason to be optimistic about this defense it’s the fact that they should be healthier, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury on defense of any team in the league last season.

The edge defender position was probably hardest hit. Malcolm Koonce, expected to be a starter, missed the entire season, while fellow starter and top edge defender Maxx Crosby missed five games and seemed to be limited even when on the field. Koonce, a 2021 3rd round pick, had a mini breakout season in 2023 with a 81.3 PFF grade across 501 snaps, playing the run well and especially excelling as a pass rusher with 8 sacks, 10 hits, and a 15.1% pressure rate. He’s a complete one-year wonder, only playing 116 snaps in his first two seasons in the league before his breakout 2023 campaign, and, now coming off of a significant injury complicates his projection further, but he’s still young in his age 27 season and, even if he can’t repeat his 2023 campaign in 2025, he still has a good chance to be an above average player.

Crosby, meanwhile, is one of the best and most durable edge defenders in the league when healthy. In five seasons in the league prior to last season, Crosby never missed a game, while ranking 5th, 4th, 1st, and 1st in among edge defenders in snaps played in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively and ranking 2nd, 4th, and 4th among edge defenders in PFF grade in 2021, 2022, and 2023, exceeding 90 on PFF in all three seasons and totaling 35 sacks, 61 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 51 games over that stretch. In 2024, he still played a high snap count for the amount of games he played (766), but he fell to a 74.3 PFF grade, with 7.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate. Still in his age 28 season, Crosby has obvious bounce back potential in 2025 if he can stay healthy, which his history suggests he can.

With Koonce missing the season and Crosby missing time as well, 2023 7th overall pick Tyree Wilson stepped up, with a 66.7 PFF grade across 524 snaps, while totaling 4.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate. That might not seem like much, especially given how highly Wilson was drafted, but Wilson struggled mightily with a 47.1 PFF grade across 493 snaps as a rookie, so last season was a big step forward for him. He has always had a huge upside and has likely permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a solid rotational player, with the upside for more. He will likely split snaps with Koonce, while Crosby continues rarely coming off the field. 

Charles Snowden (405 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (508 snaps) also had decent seasons as rotational players last season, with PFF grades of 60.5 and 63.0 respectively. Chaisson is no longer with the team, but Snowden remains. He is a 2021 undrafted free agent who only played 6 defensive snaps in his career prior to last season, but he should be a decent deep reserve at the very least, which is all the Raiders should need him for as long as they stay relatively healthy at this position this season. At full strength, this looks like one of the best edge defender groups in the NFL.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The Raiders should also get a healthier season out of Christian Wilkins, who was limited to just 246 snaps in 5 games by injury. In his absence, none of the Raiders’ other interior defenders finished above 60 on PFF. Wilkins is now going into his age 30 season and recovery reportedly has not gone as smoothly as the Raiders would have liked, but he still has a chance to return in time for the 2025 season and, even if he’s not quite at his best, he should be a welcome re-addition. A first round pick in 2019, Wilkins has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league and has finished above 70 in four straight seasons, including a 74.8 PFF grade before going down last season. 

Adam Butler and Jonah Laulu are the Raiders’ top returning interior defenders in terms of snaps played, with 856 and 474 respectively, and both should continue having roles in 2025. Butler was a decent pass rusher last season, with 5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 6.0% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run. That’s largely in line with how he’s played throughout his eight seasons in the league, as he has 27 sacks, 24 hits, and a 6.8% pressure rate in 114 career games, but has only finished above 60 against the run once. Now going into his age 31 season, Butler’s best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily decline from an already pretty low base point.

Laulu, meanwhile, is a 2024 7th round pick who didn’t prove he shouldn’t have fallen that far in the draft as a rookie. He will likely continue struggling in 2025. The Raiders also added veteran Leki Fotu through free agency and used 4th and 6th round picks on Tonka Hemingway and JJ Pegues, but all of them are underwhelming options. Hemingway and Pegues were not highly drafted prospects, while Fotu has finished below 50 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, on an average of just 299 snaps per season. Outside of Christian Wilkins, who is turning 30 and coming off of a major injury, the Raiders are very thin at the interior defender position.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Raiders’ top-2 linebackers from a year ago, Robert Spillane (1,093 snaps) and Divine Deablo (689 snaps) are no longer with the team, and their replacements, Devin White, Elandon Roberts, and Jaylon Smith, are very underwhelming. White was the 5th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and played 973 snaps per season in the first five seasons of his career in Tampa Bay, but he finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons and, after leaving Tampa Bay, he had a hard time finding another team willing to give him significant playing time, as he played just 176 snaps in 2024, while spending time with the Eagles and Texans, and he once again finished below 60 on PFF.

Roberts has been a solid run defender in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in six of nine seasons in the league and finishing above 70 in three of nine seasons, including back-to-back seasons in 2023 and 2024, but he has only played 469 snaps per season in his career, with a maximum of 676, he has only finished above 60 in pass defense just once, and now he’s going into his age 31 season. He could remain a solid situational linebacker, but that’s not a guarantee and he’s highly unlikely to be anything more than a situational player.

Smith played at a high level early in his career, but injuries detailed his career. He has just one season above 60 since 2019, while spending time with six different teams over that stretch, and he has played just 25 snaps over the past two seasons, with no snaps played in 2024. Now going into his age 31 season, Smith is highly unlikely to bounce back. The Raiders also have Tommy Eichenberg, a 2024 5th round rookie who struggled mightily on 78 snaps as a rookie, and 7th round rookie Cody Lindenberg, who would likely if he was forced into a significant role as a rookie. This is a very underwhelming linebacking corps.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Raiders also lost significant players in the secondary this off-season. At cornerback, Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs are gone, replaced by Eric Stokes, a mediocre veteran option, and Darien Porter, a third round rookie. Stokes and Porter will compete for roles with mediocre holdovers Jakorian Bennett, Darnay Holmes, and Decamarion Richardson. Stokes was a first round pick in 2021 and had a solid rookie season, with a 66.3 PFF grade across 934 snaps, but injuries limited him to 587 snaps in 12 games in his next two seasons and, while he played all 17 games last year and had a decent 61.3 PFF grade, he wasn’t a full-time player, only playing 587 snaps. Stokes is still only in his age 26 season and still has theoretical upside, but he’s an underwhelming starting option.

Despite that, Stokes is actually probably the Raiders’ best cornerback. Porter has long-term potential, but might be too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. Decamarion Richardson had a 45.6 PFF grade across 559 snaps as a 4th round rookie last season and, while he could be better in his second season in the league, he has a long way to go to be even an average starter. Jakorian Bennett was a 4th round pick in 2023 and has PFF grades of 42.4 and 58.6 across snap counts of 361 and 459 in two seasons in the league. Darnay Holmes was a 2020 4th round pick and has finished above 60 just once in five seasons in the league, while only playing 421 snaps over the past two seasons combined. This is arguably the worst cornerback group in the NFL.

Things are only marginally better at safety. Trevon Moehrig, who had a 67.5 PFF grade across 1,099 snaps last season, is no longer with the team and, while his replacement Jeremy Chinn had a similar season last season with a 69.0 PFF grade across 1,020 snaps, he has been significantly less consistent in his career than Moehrig, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league. Meanwhile, Isaiah Pola-Mao will remain the other starting safety, even though he struggled with a 54.2 PFF grade across 952 snaps last season, due to the lack of another option. A 2022 undrafted free agent, Pola-Mao only played 211 snaps in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season and is unlikely to be any better in 2025 than he was in 2024.

Other safety options include Thomas Harper, a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 191 snaps as a rookie, Chris Smith, a 2023 5th round pick who has played just 33 snaps in two seasons in the league, and Lonnie Johnson, a veteran going into his age 30 season who has played just 301 snaps total in the last three seasons. Overall, this looks like one of the worst secondaries in the league, with very little redeeming qualities.

Grade: C

Kicker

Daniel Carlson has been one of the better kickers in the league in recent years. He finished slightly below average by 0.62 points last season, but that came after a four straight year stretch of being above average, accumulating 25.41 points above average over that stretch. Carlson is now heading into his age 30 season, but kickers are often effective into their 30s, so I wouldn’t say he is on the decline. He could easily bounce back from his worst season in years.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Raiders’ offense should be significantly improved by adding Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty, but their defense lost a lot this off-season and looks like a below average unit. The Raiders also play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, with each of the other three teams making the post-season last season and looking likely to at least contend for the post-season in 2025, so, even if the Raiders do take a big step forward this season, they are still probably the worst team in their division.

Update: After some reanalysis on how much of an immediate impact rookies at different positions make, I have moved my win total for the Raiders up.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC West

Denver Broncos 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Broncos

Quarterback

Going into 2024, the Broncos looked like they could be one of the worst teams in the league. A failed trade for Russell Wilson cost them a pair of first and a pair of second round picks and, even though he wasn’t even on the roster anymore, Wilson was on the Broncos’ cap for 53 million in 2024. The Broncos also traded away a first and second round pick to get head coach Sean Payton, who didn’t seem to move the needle in his first season with the team in 2023. On top of that, the Broncos used another first round pick to draft Wilson’s replacement, Bo Nix, in the 2024 NFL Draft. With all of those resources spent on the quarterback and head coach, there wasn’t a lot left over for the rest of this roster.

However, head coach Sean Payton and his defensive coordinator Vance Joseph got the most out of this roster in 2024, including quarterback Bo Nix, who exceeded expectations as a rookie. The result is the Broncos made a surprise playoff appearance at 10-7 and, while they were blown out by the Bills in that playoff appearance, this team was clearly ahead of schedule. With their cap clearing out somewhat this off-season, the Broncos had some money to spend to fill out some holes on this roster.

There are some reasons to be concerned the Broncos might not be able to make it back to the post-season in 2025, even with the additions they made this off-season. For one, they figure to have more injuries, after having the 6th fewest adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league last season. Their injury situation was even better than that suggests, as their top-4 players on offense and on defense in terms of PFF grade last season missed a combined two games, so what few injuries they had did not significantly impact their best players. The Broncos are also starting from a lower base point than their record suggests, ranking 12th in yards per play differential and 15th in first down rate differential, which is even worse if you take out their week 18 win over the Chiefs’ backups, in which the Broncos won the first down rate battle by 14.71% and the yards per play battle by 2.97. 

Beyond the Broncos’ off-season additions, if there is a reason to expect the Broncos to make it back to the post-season, despite the aforementioned things working against them, it is continued development from Bo Nix. Not only did Nix complete 66.3% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions as a rookie, ranking 19th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 76.4 grade, but he completed 69.7% of his passes for an average of 7.37 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in his final 10 regular season starts, while receiving a PFF grade of 84.6 over that stretch, 11th among quarterbacks. He could easily continue developing and be better overall in his second season in the league in 2025.

Nix will continue being backed up by veteran journeyman Jarrett Stidham, who has made just four starts in six seasons in the league, with a 78.3 QB rating in his career. Even as far as backup options, Stidham is an underwhelming one, so the Broncos would be in trouble if Nix missed more than a couple games this season. Fortunately, he doesn’t have a significant history of injury issues. As long as that continues in 2025, there is a good chance this season is better than last season for him.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the big free agent additions for the Jaguars this off-season was tight end Evan Engram. Engram has averaged 1.42 yards per route run in his career and averaged 1.51 yards per route run last season, but he missed 8 games due to injury, which limited him to a 47/365/1 slash line, and now he is going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline in 2025. However, it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over what the Broncos had at tight end last season, when none of their tight ends surpassed 200 yards receiving and the tight end position overall accounted for just 13.1% of the team’s targets, 2nd fewest of any team in the league. The tight end position was a big part of Sean Payton’s offense when he was with the Saints, so I would expect Engram to have a high usage in 2025, even if he’s not quite at his best.

All three of the tight ends who played significant snaps for the Broncos last season, Adam Trautman (572 snaps), Nate Adkins (419 snaps), and Lucas Krull (301 snaps) remain on the roster, but they will obviously play a smaller role in 2025, if they play any role at all. None of them will play a big role in the passing game, with Trautman, Adkins, and Krull averaging 0.97, 0.87, and 0.70 yards per route run in their careers respectively, but Trautman and Adkins were primarily involved as blockers last season and could continue seeing roles in that aspect. 

The Broncos only had one wide receiver with more than 502 receiving yards last season, but that wasn’t because they didn’t have good wide receivers. Instead, it was because only one of their wide receivers played an every down role, with four others rotating snaps. Courtland Sutton was their top receiver, turning 135 targets into a 81/1081/8 slash line with 1.84 yards per route run. In his career, he has a 1.66 yards per route run average and has exceeded 700 yards receiving in every healthy season of his career. Last season was only the second 1000+ yard season of his career, but it was also the first season of his career in which he had a decent quarterback. The bigger problem is he is now heading into his age 30 season and could start declining soon. He’ll likely remain an above average receiver for at least one more season, but he might not be quite as good as he was a year ago.

Of the four wide receivers who rotated snaps last season, two of them were significantly better than the other two, as Marvin Mims (297 snaps) and Devaughn Vele (448 snaps) averaged 2.57 and 1.51 yards per route run respectively, while Lil’Jordan Humphrey (545 snaps) and Troy Franklin (386 snaps) averaged 1.01 and 0.99 yards per route run respectively. In 2025, Humphrey is gone, but he was replaced by third round rookie Pat Bryant, so the Broncos could continue rotating wide receivers heavily, but they might be better off making Mims and Vele their primary #2 and #3 receiver and leaving Bryant and Franklin as reserves, even if Franklin is a 2024 4th round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league.

Vele is also a second year receiver, only being selected in the 7th round last season, but he well exceeded his draft slot as a rookie. He’s still pretty inexperienced and might not be able to translate last season’s promising season into a larger role, but he should at least be given a chance to. Mims, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2023 and hasn’t played more than a situational role yet, but he also averaged 1.54 yards per route run as a rookie before taking a step forward in his second season in the league in 2024. 

Mims probably wouldn’t be as efficient in a bigger role in 2025 as he was in a smaller role in 2024, but he could still be an above average #2 wide receiver even if he’s not quite as efficient. Massively talented and still only in his age 23 season, he has obvious breakout potential if he plays an expanded role this season. The Broncos may continue rotating these young wide receivers, but they would probably be better off not doing that. This receiving corps has a lot of upside, but it’s worth noting that their top wide receiver and top tight end are both on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running backs were a big part of the Broncos’ passing game last season, as they ranked 5th in the NFL with 21.4% of their targets going to running backs. I would expect that number to come down this season, in part because the Broncos’ receiving corps should be better, but also in part because Javonte Williams, their top passing down back last season with 1.22 yards per route run, is no longer with the team. Williams has been replaced by 2nd round rookie RJ Harvey, who has some pass catching upside and who should be an upgrade as a runner over Williams, who averaged just 3.69 YPC on 139 carries as the lead back last season, but I wouldn’t expect Harvey to be quite as productive in the passing game as Williams was.

Even as a second round rookie, Harvey has a clear path to a big role in this backfield. Their other running back options are Audric Estime, a 2024 5th round pick who averaged 4.08 YPC on 76 carries with just 0.68 yards per route run as a rookie, and Jaleel McLaughlin, who has averaged 4.79 YPC in two seasons in the league, but only across 189 total carries and, at 5-7 187, it’s unlikely he’s capable of handling a significantly bigger workload than that. McLaughlin will likely remain involved as a change of pace back, but he’s not a candidate for a significant workload and the same is probably true of Estime, who was underwhelming overall as a rookie. Unless Harvey breaks out as a talented feature back right away, this is an underwhelming backfield.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Broncos’ offensive line was the strength of their offense last season, ranking 1st in pass blocking grade and 11th in run blocking grade on PFF. The good news is they return all five starters from a year ago. The bad news is two of their starters are on the wrong side of 30 and could decline in 2025, perhaps significantly, as left tackle Garett Bolles is in his age 33 season and right tackle Mike McGlinchey is in his age 31 season. They had PFF grades of 78.8 and 74.0 last season, but it’s pretty unlikely that both are as good again in 2025 as they were in 2024, given their ages.

Bolles has finished above 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league (116 starts), so he’s starting from a pretty high base point and would likely remain a solid starter at the very least even if he declines, but any significant decline from him would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line. McGlinchey hasn’t been quite as good in his career, but he’s finished above 65 on PFF in all seven seasons in the league (98 starts), including four seasons above 70. He’s a couple years younger than Bolles, so he’s less likely to decline and, even if he does, he could remain a solid starter, but, like with Bolles, any significant decline from him would have a noticeable effect on this offensive line.

This offensive line should still be pretty good though. Right guard Quinn Meinerz was their best offensive lineman last season and, still in his prime in his age 27 season, he should continue dominating in 2025. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Meinerz has finished above 65 on PFF in all four seasons in the league and has developed into one of the best guards in the league over the past two seasons, ranking 3rd and 2nd respectively among guards on PFF with PFF grades of 83.7 and 88.2 respectively, while making all 34 starts. He should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Center Luke Wattenberg and left guard Ben Powers were their weakest starters last season, with PFF grades of 63.3 and 63.9 respectively. Wattenberg was a 5th round pick in 2022 and only played 129 mediocre snaps in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season, so he’s a one-year wonder in terms of even being a decent starter and could regress somewhat in 2025. Powers, on the other hand, is at least more proven, making 63 starts over the past four seasons and finishing above 60 on PFF in all four seasons, but he’s maxed out with a 66.3 PFF grade, so he hasn’t shown much upside. Already in his age 29 season, Powers is who he is at this stage of his career and will likely have a similar season again in 2025.

The Broncos’ depth last season also played pretty well when needed, as backup center/guard Alex Forsyth had a 65.2 PFF grade in four starts and backup tackles Matt Peart and Alex Palczewski had PFF grades of 67.4 and 63.4 in two starts and three starts respectively. Forsyth and Palczewski were 7th round picks and undrafted free agents in 2023 and didn’t play a snap as a rookie, so they’re both very unproven, but they did at least flash some upside last season. 

Peart is the most experienced of the bunch, making nine starts in five seasons in the league since going in the 3rd round in 2020, and he’s been decent, if inconsistent, with PFF grades above 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league. They might not be as good again in 2025 if forced into significant action, but they’re not bad depth. This offensive line is likely to not be quite as good as it was last year, but this is still a well above average group.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Broncos’ defense was the strength of this team last season, ranking 3rd in yards per play allowed and 6th in first down rate allowed, as opposed to the offense ranking 20th in yards per play and 22nd in first down rate. One very impressive aspect of this defense was their pass rush, which led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than any other team. Starting edge defenders Jonathan Cooper and Nik Bonitto both had double digit sacks, with totals of 10.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 13.0% pressure rate and 13.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate respectively, while receiving PFF grades of 71.8 and 77.5 respectively. 

For both players, it was a career best year, especially for Bonitto, who had PFF grades of just 52.4 and 64.0 on snap counts of just 357 and 524 respectively in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. Bonitto was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and has always had upside, so it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner, but he also could regress a little bit in 2025, though I wouldn’t expect him to regress all the way back to his 2022-2023 form. Cooper, meanwhile, is a 2021 7th round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league, though he only combined for 13 sacks, 17 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 47 games in his first three seasons in the league, so last season was definitely his best season in that aspect. Like Bonitto, he could regress a little, but he also could have permanently turned a corner.

Jonah Elliss (436 snaps) and Dondrea Tillman (243 snaps) were their top reserves last season and had different results. Elliss had 5 sacks in a part-time role, but only added one quarterback hit and a 8.3% pressure rate, while Tillman also had 5 sacks, but added 3 hits, and a 13.7% pressure rate. Both were rookies, but Elliss went in the 3rd round, while Tillman went undrafted, so Elliss may still have the higher upside long-term and could continue playing a bigger role than Tillman. Elliss could take a step forward in his second season in the league, while Tillman has yet to show enough that we can ignore that the whole league passed on him in the draft just a year ago. The Broncos also added Que Robinson in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give themselves some more depth, but he would likely need at least one, if not multiple significant injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to play a significant role in year one. This is a talented position group overall. 

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Broncos also got a great pass rush from the interior. John Franklin-Myers and Zach Allen, their top-2 interior defenders, had their issues against the run, but as pass rushers they had 7 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate and 8.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate respectively. For both players, it was a career best year, but both have been good pass rushers in the past as well, as Allen combined for 10.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 30 games from 2022-2023, while Franklin-Myers combined for 17.5 sacks, 43 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 65 games from 2020-2023. Both are still on the right side of 30, in their age 28 and age 29 seasons respectively so, while they might not quite repeat the best season of their career again in 2025, both should remain high level pass rushers.

Malcolm Roach (489 snaps) also was a useful pass rusher as a reserve, with 2.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate. That was out of character for him though, as he finished above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade and in overall grade in three of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, on an average of just 258 snaps per season, while managing just a 5.3% pressure rate across those four seasons. It’s very possible the 2020 undrafted free agent proves last season to be a little bit of a fluke, but he’s not a bad reserve option to have. 

With Franklin-Myers, Allen, and Roach all being better pass rushers than run defenders, DJ Jones (465 snaps) was probably the Broncos’ best interior defender against the run last season and he added a 6.7% pressure rate as well, leading to a decent overall PFF grade of 64.1. Jones has mostly been a solid rotational player in recent years, exceeding 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons on an average of 478 snaps per season, but he’s now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon. 

The Broncos also have Jordan Jackson, but he struggled mightily with a 40.5 PFF grade across 310 snaps last season in the first action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. The Broncos return all five of their top interior defenders from a year ago, but with Roach being a one-year wonder, Jones going into his age 30 season, and Jackson struggling, the Broncos felt they needed more depth and added Sai’Vion Jones in the 3rd round of the draft and he has a good chance to earn a reserve role in year one. This is a deep and talented position group.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Broncos’ top-2 linebackers in terms of snaps played last season were Cody Barton (1,053 snaps) and Justin Strnad (676 snaps). Barton (66.1 PFF grade) left as a free agent, while Strnad (55.5 PFF grade) struggled last season, but the Broncos do get Alex Singleton back after a torn ACL cost him all but 190 snaps in three games last season and they added Dre Greenlaw in free agency on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal. They figure to be the starters this season.

Both Singleton and Greenlaw are coming off injury plagued seasons though, as Greenlaw was also limited to 34 snaps by a torn achilles last season. Greenlaw has finished above 65 on PFF in four straight seasons, with two seasons over 80, but he’s also missed 33 games due to injury over that stretch. Still only in his age 28 season, he has a lot of potential if he’s healthy, but that’s not a guarantee. Singleton, meanwhile, doesn’t have the same injury history as Greenlaw, but he’s going into his age 32 season and doesn’t quite have the same upside as Greenlaw either, though he has finished above 60 on PFF with a maximum PFF grade of 79.1 in 2022. He could have another solid season as an every down player, but that’s not a guarantee.

Strnad remains as a reserve, but he’s never had any success. The 2020 5th round pick played just 5 snaps between 2022-2023, after struggling mightily with a 32.0 PFF grade across 314 snaps in the first action of his career in 2021, so last season was actually the best season of his career, even though he struggled. He could face competition for the top reserve role from Drew Sanders, who was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but has yet to live up to the billing, struggling across just 278 snaps in two seasons in the league. Sanders could still have some untapped upside, but that’s not a guarantee. The Broncos’ lack of depth at linebacker is a concern, given that the starters are coming off of lost seasons due to injury, but this group does have upside if the starters stay healthy and play at close to their best.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Broncos got great seasons from a pair of defensive backs, cornerback Pat Surtain and safety Brandon Jones, who finished with PFF grades of 85.6 and 86.7 respectively, while making 16 starts each. For Surtain, this performance was not surprising, as the 2021 9th overall pick also had a 86.8 PFF grade in 2022, though he has been a bit inconsistent, with PFF grades of 66.1 and 69.0 in 2021 and 2023 respectively. Despite that inconsistency, Surtain has as high of an upside as any cornerback in the league, still only going into his age 25 season.

For Jones, last season’s dominant performance came out of nowhere, as he had never played more than 644 snaps in a season prior to last season, with a career best PFF grade of 76.8 in 2023, across just 464 snaps, and three seasons below 70 out of four seasons in the league. Jones is still in his prime in his age 27 season, but there is a good chance last season proves to be a fluke. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he remained at least an above average starter, even if he’s not quite as good as he was last season.

The rest of this secondary was not nearly as good last season, as #2 and #3 cornerbacks Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian finished with PFF grades of 61.2 and 59.9 respectively across snap counts of 836 and 870 respectively, while their other starting safety, PJ Locke, had a 57.5 PFF grade across 1,000 snaps. To improve the rest of this group, the Broncos signed safety Talanoa Hufanga to a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal and used their first round pick on cornerback Jahdae Barron. 

Hufanga will take over at safety next to Jones. The 2021 5th round pick had a 68.8 PFF grade across 1,029 snaps in 2022 and seemed to be on his way to an even better season in 2023, when he had a 70.5 PFF grade, but his season was cut short (577 snaps in 10 games) by a torn ACL and he was not the same upon his return in 2024, when he was limited to just 308 snaps in seven games and had just a 57.8 PFF grade. Now another year removed from the injury and still only going into his age 26 season, Hufanga has obvious bounce back potential if he’s healthy. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be a significant upgrade over Locke, who is now the primary reserve, a role he was much more comfortable in prior to last season, when he averaged just 137 snaps per season in his first five seasons in the league.

Barron, meanwhile, will compete for a starting job right away at cornerback and will likely beat out either Moss or McMillan. Moss was a 2023 3rd round pick, but he only played 25 nondescript snaps as a rookie before being underwhelming as a starter in 2024. He still could have untapped upside, going into his age 25 season and his third season in the league, but he shouldn’t be guaranteed a starting job. McMillan, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2022, played just 68 snaps as a rookie, and seemed to breakout with a 68.4 PFF grade across 669 snaps in 2023, before regressing in 2024. Barron will likely be an upgrade over whoever he replaces in the starting lineup. Surtain and Jones might not be quite as good as they were last season, but the additions of Hufanga and Barron should offset any regression from them.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Will Lutz ranked 8th among kickers with 7.51 points above average last season, but he’s been inconsistent in the past, including three straight seasons prior to last season when he finished below average, costing his teams 14.95 points across the three seasons. Lutz is now going into his age 31 season, which isn’t over the hill for a kicker, but he’s not guaranteed to be anywhere near as good in 2025 as he was in 2024, given his history of inconsistency.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Broncos were not as good as their final record suggested last season, with a yards per play differential of +0.30 and a first down rate differential of +0.52%, and they were one of the healthiest teams in the league, with the 6th fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league, which is not guaranteed to happen again. However, they got better as last season went on, as rookie quarterback Bo Nix developed, which could continue into this season, and they made a few significant additions this off-season like Evan Engram, Dee Greenlaw, and Talanoa Hufanga, without having any losses that were as significant. All in all, the Broncos at least have a good chance to make it back to the post-season, though I don’t think they are quite good enough to be true Super Bowl contenders.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West

Atlanta Falcons 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Quarterback

The Falcons finished 7-10 in 2023, but looked like they had a good chance to take a big step forward in 2024. The Falcons’ record was not impressive the season before, but they had an above average supporting cast, with their weak link being the quarterback position, which led the Falcons to a 27th ranked team QB rating at 80.5. The Falcons then overhauled the quarterback position last off-season, not only giving a big 4-year, 180 million dollar contract to a proven veteran free agent in Kirk Cousins, but also using the 8th overall pick on Michael Penix, to give them a pair of seemingly good options going into 2024. However, the Falcons only won one more game in 2024 and missed the post-season again.

The biggest reason for that was the decline of their defense, which I will get more into later. After ranking 7th in yards per play allowed and 8th in first down rate allowed in 2023, the Falcons fell to 19th and 23rd respectively in those two metrics in 2024. Their offense actually took a big step forward, going from 16th in yards per play and 19th in first down rate in 2023 to 8th and 11th respectively in those two metrics in 2024. However, quarterback play was not the biggest reason for their offensive success.

Kirk Cousins did not play as well as expected, failing to bounce back to form as a 36-year-old quarterback who was coming off of an achilles repair. Cousins completed 66.9% of his passes for an average of 7.74 YPA, but had 16 interceptions to 18 touchdowns and was probably given too long of a leash. Penix eventually took over for Cousins for the final three games of the season, but the Falcons were on the outside looking in at a playoff spot at that point in the season and Penix wasn’t really any better, completing 58.1% of his passes for an average of 7.38 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Penix was always going to be the Falcons’ future at quarterback and, though Kirk Cousins remains on the roster, Penix is the undisputed starter going into 2025. It’s tough to know what to expect from Penix given his limited NFL playing time, but he showed a lot of potential coming into the league and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in his second season in the league. Cousins, meanwhile, only remains on the roster because his 27.5 million dollar salary for 2025 was guaranteed either way and he could still find his way out of Atlanta via trade if the Falcons can find a team desperate enough to eat a big chunk of Cousins’ salary or give the Falcons a significant draft pick in return for the Falcons eating his salary.

The Falcons shouldn’t just give Cousins away though, as he could easily prove to be useful as a backup, considering how inexperienced Penix is and his history of injuries from his collegiate days. Cousins is now going into his age 37 season, but he’s also another year removed from his injury and he was a consistently above average quarterback before the injury, finishing above 75 on PFF in six straight seasons prior to 2025. His best days are probably behind him, but he’s one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and could find his way back into the starting lineup if Penix struggles or gets hurt. Chances are one of the two Falcons’ quarterbacks has a better year in 2025 than they did in 2024, but this is still a questionable position group when you compare it to many other teams around the league.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The biggest reason the Falcons had some offensive success last season was their running game, led by feature back Bijan Robinson, who rushed for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns across 304 carries (4.79 YPC), averaging 3.03 yards per carry after contact, ranking 1st in the NFL among running backs with a 60.2% carry success rate, and breaking tackles at a 23.0% rate. Robinson also had a 61/431/1 slash line as a receiver with 1.11 yards per route run average, which, combined with his rushing prowess, led to Robinson ranking 2nd among running backs on PFF with a 92.8 overall grade, only behind Derrick Henry. 

Robinson entered the league with a lot of upside as the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and he showed that potential as a rookie, with 4.53 YPC on 214 carries, 3.10 YPC after contact, a 24.2% broken tackle rate, a 43.5% carry success rate, a 58/487/4 slash line, and 1.16 yards per route run, before taking a big step forward in his second season in the league. Still only going into his age 23 season, Robinson looks likely to be one of the best feature backs in the NFL for years to come, even when you consider how injury prone running backs tend to be and how short their careers tend to be.

The Falcons also have a great backup running back in Tyler Allgeier. In three seasons in the league, he has averaged 4.43 yards per carry, 3.37 yards per carry after contact, a 23.8% missed tackle rate, a 52.3% carry success rate, and 1.11 yards per route run, with 4.70 yards per carry, 3.61 yards per carry after contact, a 27.0% missed tackle rate, a 58.4% carry success rate, and 0.95 yards per route run in 2024. The Falcons are a run heavy team so, even with Robinson ahead of him on the depth chart and playing in all 17 games last season, Allgeier still got 137 carries last season. I expect a similar role for him in 2025 and for him to continue being effective as arguably the best backup running back in the NFL. 

With Robinson and Allgeier topping the depth chart, the Falcons don’t have much need for a third running back. That role will likely fall to Jase McClellan again, a 2024 6th round pick who averaged just 2.46 yards per carry as a rookie, but who fortunately only got 13 carries all season. Even if one of Robinson or Allgeier misses significant time with injury, the other would likely get the vast majority of the snaps, leaving McClellan as a sparingly used backup.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

The Falcons’ offensive line was also a strength last season, but there are reasons not to expect them to be quite as good in 2024. For one, center Drew Dalman, who had a 78.8 PFF grade last season, is no longer with the team and was replaced by career backup Ryan Neuzil, a 2021 undrafted free agent who had PFF grades of 55.3 and 58.5 across snap counts of 203 and 578 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, the only two seasons of his career in which he played significant action. He will almost definitely be a liability and a huge downgrade from Dalman in 2025.

On top of that, left tackle Jake Matthews is now going into his age 33 season and could decline. Matthews hasn’t shown any decline yet, finishing last season with a 79.8 PFF grade, his 10th straight season over 70 on PFF, and he’s been remarkably durable throughout his career, missing just one game ever, back in his rookie season in 2014, but if he declines even somewhat in 2025, it will have a noticeable effect on an offensive line that will already be missing center Drew Dalman. Right tackle Kaleb McGary is also going to be on the wrong side of 30 in 2025, though he fortunately is three years younger than Matthews. Over the past three seasons, McGary has PFF grades of 86.6, 75.5, and 73.8 respectively.

The rest of this offensive line should continue playing at the same level in 2025 at least. Lindstrom, a 2019 1st round pick, has developed into arguably the best guard in the league, with PFF grades of 77.1, 83.7, 95.0, 87.6, and 93.5 over the past five seasons respectively, while missing just one game due to injury over that stretch. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect another dominant season from him in 2025. He will start opposite Matthew Bergeron, a 2022 3rd round pick who had a 59.1 grade in 17 starts as a rookie and then took a step forward with a 70.9 grade in 17 starts in his second season in the league in 2024. He’s technically a one-year wonder, but has a good chance of at least remaining a solid starter, with the upside for more, now in his third season in the league.

The Falcons’ offensive line stayed mostly healthy last season, with just nine starts missed total, eight of them by Drew Dalman, who is no longer with the team and was replaced by his backup Ryan Nuezil. Aside from Nuezil, the only Falcons reserve to make a start last season was swing tackle Storm Norton, who made one start at right tackle and finished the season with a 61.9 PFF grade across 128 snaps. He’s been a decent swing tackle in his career, making 22 starts over the past five seasons, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, but he’s now going into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline. If forced into an extended starting role, he could easily struggle.

The rest of the Falcons’ reserve options aren’t any better. The Falcons didn’t add any centers of note this off-season, leaving Jovaughn Gwyn, a 2023 7th round pick who has never played an offensive snap in his career, as the likely backup center. At guard, their best option is likely Elijah Wilkinson, who made 45 starts in the six seasons prior to only playing one snap as a reserve last season. He had some decent years in that stretch, but was also very inconsistent and now heads into his age 30 season. The Falcons still have a strong starting offensive line, but they didn’t replace Drew Dalman, both of their starting tackles are on the wrong side of 30, and their depth is suspect.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The Falcons got good play out of their top-2 wide receivers as well. Drake London led the team with a 100/1271/9 slash line and 2.32 yards per route run. London had never surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in his career prior to last season, but the former 8th overall pick showed potential with yards per route run averages of 2.07 and 1.87 in his first two seasons in the league and went into his third season in the league in 2024 with an upgrade at quarterback, so a breakout statistical year wasn’t really a surprise. He should have another similar season in 2025, if not even better, still only going into his age 24 season.

Darnell Mooney having a solid year as the #2 receiver was a little bit more of a surprise. Mooney had only averaged 1.35 yards per route run and a 53/648/3 slash line per season in four seasons in Chicago, where the 2020 5th round pick started his career before signing in Atlanta last off-season. In his first season in Atlanta, he finished with a 64/992/5 slash line and a career high 1.88 yards per route run average, benefitting significantly from being on a better passing offense in Atlanta than in Chicago. It’s possible he is just as good in 2025, only in his age 28 season, but it’s also possible he could decline a little bit after a career best yards per route run average last season.

Third receiver Ray-Ray McCloud also had a career best year in 2024, finishing with a 62/686/1 slash line, after totaling just 768 receiving yards in six seasons in the league prior to 2024. That was mostly just due to getting more opportunity in Atlanta than he ever had before, due to the Falcons’ lack of wide receiver depth. His 1.25 yards per route run average in 2024 was mediocre and only a slight increase over his career 1.08 yards per route run average. McCloud is still relatively young in his age 29 season, but even if he repeats last year’s career best year, he is still an underwhelming #3 receiver. The Falcons don’t have a better option though, with the alternatives being 2024 6th round pick Casey Washington, who only played 9 snaps as a rookie, and KhaDarel Hodge, a career backup heading into his age 30 season with a maximum of 14 catches in a season in his career and a career 1.27 yards per route run average.

The disappointment of this receiving corps last season was tight end Kyle Pitts. Pitts has been a disappointment since his rookie season, when the 2021 4th overall pick looked like a future star with a 68/1026/1 slash line, a 2.02 yards per route run average, and a 80.3 PFF grade. Since then, he has seen his yards per route run average drop to 1.69, 1.43, and 1.33 over the past three seasons respectively, while his PFF grade has dropped to 73.3, 68.1, and 59.6, as he seemingly gets worse every season, even with last year being the best passing offense has has ever played on. Pitts is still only going into his age 25 season, so it’s possible he starts to turn it around in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Pitts is at least locked into the primary receiving tight end role, without the Falcons having another good option, though that doesn’t guarantee he will have a big role in the passing game, even with the Falcons’ lack of depth at wide receiver. Pitts will likely again be backed up by Charlie Woerner, who has a career 0.54 yards per route run average, but is at least a decent blocker. This receiving corps overall looks identical to last year, when they were a talented, but top heavy group.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

If the Falcons can get even slightly better quarterback play this season, their offense has a lot of potential, given the amount of talent they have around the quarterback, but whether or not this team can make the post-season in 2025 is largely dependent on whether or not their defense improves after struggling last season. To try to improve on this side of the ball, the Falcons aggressively addressed a need at edge defender, where only one player finished with a pressure rate higher than 10% last season.

The Falcons used their own first round pick on Georgia’s Jalon Walker and then traded another future first round pick to move back up into the first round to select Tennessee’s James Pearce, giving them a raw, but high upside duo. The Falcons also added veteran Leonard Floyd, although he is not as good as his 8.5 sack total last season would suggest, as he finished with a 53.5 PFF grade across 604 snaps. Floyd started his season with seven straight seasons above 60 on PFF, but he has fallen below 60 in back-to-back seasons now and will be in his age 33 season in 2025, so he is likely to continue struggling.

Arnold Ebiketie was their best edge defender last season and will continue playing a role, after a 68.2 PFF grade across 543 snaps and a 11.6% pressure rate last season. A 2022 2nd round pick, Ebiketie also had PFF grades of 64.5 and 61.4 across snap counts of 516 and 385 respectively in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, while totaling a 11.7% pressure rate in those two seasons combined. Ebiketie is now in his age 26 season and should remain at least a solid rotational player.

The Falcons also have a pair of recent third round picks as options, 2022 3rd rounder DeAngelo Malone and 2024 3rd rounder Bralen Trice, but Malone has struggled across just 312 career snaps in three seasons in the league, while Trice missed his entire rookie season with injury and is an unproven player coming off of a serious injury. This edge defender group is likely better than last season’s by default, but they would need one or both of their first round edge defenders to be ahead of schedule in their development for this to be more than a decent group in 2025.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Falcons got better play at the interior defender position last season than at the edge defender position, but the problem was their top-2 players David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett were going into their age 33 and age 32 seasons respectively in 2025. The Falcons let go of Jarrett this off-season, after a 62.1 PFF grade across 744 snaps last season, while Onyemata returns after a 66.2 PFF grade across 567 snaps last season. Onyemata has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of the past eight seasons, including five seasons above 70, but his best seasons are probably behind him at this point and he could decline further in 2025. Most notably, Onyemata had just a 61.3 PFF grade as a pass rusher with just a 6.1% pressure rate last season, both the lowest since his rookie season in 2016.

To try to replace Jarrett, the Falcons signed Morgan Fox in free agency, but he’s also getting up there in age, heading into his age 31 season, and he’s not nearly as accomplished as Jarrett or Onyemata. He’s been an above average pass rusher throughout his career, with 27.5 sacks, 26 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 120 career games, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in eight straight seasons and saw his pressure rate decline to 7.6% in 2025. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued declining in 2025 and, like Onyemata, his best days are probably behind him at this point.

The best option the Falcons have to replace Jarrett is probably Ruke Orhorhoro, a 2024 2nd round pick who was drafted with this situation in mind. Orhorhoro was limited to 147 snaps in 8 games as a rookie due to injury and was underwhelming when on the field as well, with just a 56.2 PFF grade, but he still has a high upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he took a big step forward in his second season in the league, especially if he is healthier. That’s not a guarantee, but Orhorhoro still profiles as a future starter long-term.

The Falcons also have Zach Harrison, Ta’Quon Graham, and Kentavius Street, who played snap counts of 272, 193, and 280 last season and were solid with PFF grades of 67.2, 63.9, and 61.5 respectively. It’s very possible some or all of them will see higher snap counts in 2025. Harrison seems like the most promising of them, as he is a 2023 3rd round pick who also showed promise with a 63.0 PFF grade across 343 snaps as a rookie. Graham, a 2021 5th round pick, has been about a league average rotational player over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 68.5 and 59.1 on snap counts of 471 and 364 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, before being limited to 10 games by injury last season. He might not have a bigger snap count on a per game basis in 2025, but his total snap count should be higher just based on the fact that he is likely to play more games. 

Kentavius Street, meanwhile, is the least promising of the three reserve options, as last season was his first season in seven seasons in the league in which he finished above 60 on PFF. The Falcons lost Grady Jarrett this off-season, David Onyemata is another year older, and their only free agent addition Morgan Fox is also on the wrong side of 30, but the Falcons do at least have a pair of promising young interior defenders in Ruke Orhorhoro and Zach Harrison who could take a step forward in bigger roles in 2025.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Falcons had a solid linebacking corps last season, led by Kaden Elliss, who had a 71.1 PFF grade across 1,097 snaps, particularly excelling as a blitzer, with a team leading 12 quarterback hits and a 27.6% pressure rate on 156 blitzes. That’s nothing new for Elliss, who had PFF grades of 81.5 and 75.4 on snap counts of 632 and 1,082 respectively in 2022 and 2023, while achieving pressure rates of 19.4% and 25.7% respectively on 103 blitzes and 101 blitzes respectively. Elliss is now in his age 30 season, so he could start declining this season, but he’s more likely than not to remain at least a solid starter.

At the other linebacker spot, Nate Landman and Troy Andersen split snaps last season. Landman was the better of the two with a 65.7 PFF grade, especially excelling as a run defender, but he wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by Divine Deablo, who will compete for playing time with Andersen. Deablo is likely to be a downgrade from Landman, as he was about a replacement level linebacker throughout his first four seasons in the league with the Raiders, with PFF grades of 63.2, 58.4, 60.7, and 56.8 across snap counts of 297, 463, 771, and 689 respectively. 

Deablo might still be a better option than Andersen though, as Andersen has PFF grades of 40.2, 50.6, and 60.4 in three seasons in the league. He’s also missed 25 of 34 games over the past two seasons combined. Now going into his age 26 season, he is running out of time to make good on the upside he entered the league with, but he did at least have a career best year in 2024, albeit across just 287 snaps in seven games. The Falcons also have JD Betrand, but the 2024 5th round pick struggled mightily with a 49.8 PFF grade across 157 snaps as a rookie. The Falcons have one good linebacker, but the rest of this group is questionable and they will likely miss free agent departure Nate Landman.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Falcons’ best defensive player last season was safety Jessie Bates, who had a 80.2 PFF grade across 1,095 snaps. That season didn’t come out of nowhere, as he also had PFF grades of 79.9, 90.1, 76.8, and 90.6 respectively in 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 respectively, but he has been a bit inconsistent in his career, with PFF grades of 61.2 and 56.1 in 2019 and 2021 respectively. The good news is he’s now coming off three straight strong seasons, so he’s in the most consistently dominant stretch of his career, and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, so he could easily have another dominant season in 2025. He’s also been very durable in his career, missing just three games in seven seasons in the league.

Justin Simmons wasn’t nearly as good at the other safety spot last season, with a 59.9 PFF grade across 1,017 snaps, but he wasn’t retained this off-season. In his absence, the Falcons added Jordan Fuller to replace him. Fuller was a solid starter early in his career with the Rams, with PFF grades of 63.6, 74.3, and 66.7 in 2020, 2021, and 2023 respectively, with a lost year due to injury in between, but he fell to a 53.8 PFF grade across 574 snaps last season. He’s still only in his age 27 season though, so he could easily bounce back in 2025. If he continues struggling, the Falcons best alternatives are 3rd round rookie Xavier Watts and 2023 7th round pick DeMarcco Hellams, who showed some potential with a 65.2 PFF grade across 370 snaps as a rookie, before missing all of 2024 with injury.

At cornerback, the Falcons bring back their top-4 players from a year ago. AJ Terrell has been their #1 cornerback for years. A first round pick in 2020, Terrell has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (78 starts), including two seasons over 70, maxing out at 82.6 in 2021 and posting a 68.5 PFF grade in 2024. Still in his prime in his age 27 season, he should continue playing at a similar level in 2025.

Dee Alford and Mike Hughes finished second and third among Falcons cornerbacks in snaps played last season with 724 and 720. Alford, a 2022 undrafted free agent, had PFF grades of 64.8 and 70.0 across snap counts of 246 and 571 in his first two seasons in the league, but he was not as good across a career high in snaps last season, finishing with a 58.2 PFF grade. He was actually starting to cede snaps down the stretch to 2023 4th round pick Clark Phillips, who was impressive with a 76.5 PFF grade across 409 snaps. Phillips is still unproven, finishing his rookie season with a 59.0 PFF grade across 414 snaps, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he continued developing into a solid starter.

If Phillips can’t beat out Alford for a starting job, he could beat out Hughes. Hughes had a 71.9 PFF grade last season, but he has been pretty inconsistent throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in four of seven seasons in the league. Hughes was a first round pick in 2018, but he hasn’t developed into a consistent starter and is now in his age 28 season, so he is probably who he is at this stage of his career. It seems more likely that he will regress than repeat last season’s impressive performance. Alford, Phillips, and Hughes will compete for two starting roles, with fourth round rookie Billy Bowman playing a deep reserve role behind them. The Falcons’ secondary is the strength of their defense.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo used to be one of the best kickers in the league, accumulating positive points above average in four straight seasons from 2019-2022, totaling 24.58 points above average over that stretch, but he fell to 0.03 points below average in 2023 and then even further to 8.32 points below average in 2024. Koo is now going into his age 31 season, which isn’t totally over the hill for a kicker, but it makes it less likely he will bounce back to his prime form after back-to-back down seasons. I would expect him to be better than he was in his career worst 2024 season though.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Falcons were slightly better than their final record of 8-9 last season, posting slightly above average marks in yards per play differential (+0.29) and yards per play differential (+0.19%). In 2025, they could get better quarterback play and their defense could be slightly better, so they should be in contention for a playoff spot, but they should have more injuries than a year ago (4th most adjusted games lost to injury) and I am not sure if they are one of the top-7 teams in the NFC.

Update: The loss of right tackle Kaleb McGary for the season due to injury is a blow to the Falcons’ already slim playoff chances.

Prediction: 8-9, 2nd in NFC South

Carolina Panthers 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Panthers

Quarterback

Last off-season, the Panthers were coming off of a 2023 season in which they had the worst record in the league at 2-15 and didn’t even get their own #1 overall pick, which was part of the trade package they used to move up with the Bears to get the #1 overall pick in 2023, which they used on Bryce Young. Young was the biggest part of the problem in 2023, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 5.46 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, finishing with a 56.4 PFF grade (40th among 45 eligible quarterbacks), and leading an offense that ranked 29th in first down rate and 32nd in yards per play. 

Going into 2024, the Panthers made significant upgrades on offense around Young, particularly on the offensive line, but their defense looked likely to be worse after losing Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu. At the start of the season, the Panthers’ offense didn’t look any better, while their defense declined significantly, which was exacerbated by the loss of defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season to injury in week 1. Playing poorly on both sides of the ball, the Panthers lost their first two games of the season by a combined 60 points.

Needing to make a change somewhere, the Panthers opted to bench Bryce Young after just 18 career starts, replacing him with veteran journeyman backup Andy Dalton. That decision improved things on their offense right away. The Panthers won their next game against the Raiders and, while that was the only game the Panthers won out of five with Dalton under center, Dalton looked like a clear upgrade over Bryce Young, completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions and finishing with a 68.1 PFF grade.

Dalton then suffered an injury, opening the door for Young to get his starting job back and some time on the bench proved to be exactly what he needed. Young started the rest of the way, completing 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 10 starts after taking back the starting job. In terms of PFF grade, Young ranked 13th among quarterbacks in the NFL over that stretch at 83.2. The Panthers finished the season just 5-12, but their defense was a much bigger part of the problem than the offense, as they ranked 24th in both first down rate and yards per play, while ranking dead last in first down rate allowed and yards per play allowed. 

There is still some concern for Young developing into a franchise quarterback long-term, but he has done more than enough to keep his starting job into 2025 and his long-term projection is a lot better now than it was a year ago. He will continue being backed up by Andy Dalton, who is one of the most accomplished backup quarterbacks in the league, completing 62.6% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 253 touchdowns, and 150 interceptions in 168 career starts. However, he’s now heading into his age 38 season and hasn’t been a regular starter for a team since 2019, so he is definitely nearing the end of the line. The Panthers will obviously be hoping Dalton stays on the bench all season with Bryce Young continuing to develop into the quarterback the Panthers expected him to be when they used the #1 overall pick on him.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Panthers opted to use their first round pick, 8th overall, on a wide receiver to help Bryce Young, Tetairoa McMillan. It was a surprising pick because the Panthers seemed to have much bigger needs on defense and McMillan didn’t seem like the best available player either, as he was the top option by default in a weak wide receiver class and probably should have been selected somewhere in the 15-20 range. He does have the upside to develop into a #1 receiver long-term, but he’s an underwhelming option compared to the other wide receivers taken in the top-10 in recent years: JaMarr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Drake London, Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. 

This is the second straight year the Panthers have used a high draft pick on a wide receiver, as they traded up to take Xavier Legette at the end of the first round, 32nd overall, in 2024. Legette was underwhelming as a rookie with a 49/497/4 slash line and 1.19 yards per route run, but he has the upside to be a lot better in his second year in the league, though that’s obviously not a guarantee. Legette actually was outplayed by an undrafted rookie Jalen Coker, who was behind Legette in terms of overall production at 32/478/2, but who was far more efficient, averaging 1.72 yards per route run and totaling almost the same amount of receiving yardage on much fewer targets, 84 to 46. Legette may still have more upside than him long-term and this is a deeper wide receiver room with McMillan being added, but Coker still has a chance to earn a role in 2025.

The veteran of the group is Adam Thielen. Thielen led the team with a 103/1014/4 slash line 2023 and, while that dropped to 48/615/5 in 2024, that was primarily because he missed 7 games due to injury and, overall, his yards per route run average actually increased significantly from 2023 to 2024, going from 1.59 to 2.06. However, Thielen is now heading into his age 35 season, so it remains to be seen how much longer he can continue being a useful receiver, let alone a #1 option. With McMillan being added and Legette and Coker going into their second seasons in the league, I would expect Thielen to play a much smaller role in 2025 than he has over the past two seasons.

The Panthers have four good wide receiver options, so they don’t have much need for depth behind them, but they also have veteran David Moore and 6th round rookie Jimmy Horn. Moore has a decent 1.32 yards per route run average in eight seasons in the league, but that fell to 1.04 in 2024 and now he’s heading into his age 30 season, so he is definitely best as a deep reserve. Horn, meanwhile, is unlikely to contribute in any sort of positive way as a rookie.

The Panthers aren’t nearly as good at tight end. Ja’Tavion Sanders led Panthers tight ends in snaps played last season (531 snaps), but he only had a 33/342/1 slash line with 1.09 yards per route run, while finishing with a 52.5 PFF grade. He was only a 4th round rookie last year and he could be better in his second season in the league, but that’s not necessarily a guarantee. Tommy Tremble also played a role last season with 518 snaps, but he wasn’t any better, with a 23/234/2 slash line, 0.89 yards per route run, and a 54.4 PFF grade. That’s largely in line with how Tremble has played in four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2021, as he has a career 0.76 yards per route run average, while finishing below 60 on PFF in all four seasons. 

The Panthers did use a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Mitchell Evans, who has the opportunity to earn a role in a thin position group, but he’s unlikely to make a positive impact as a rookie and, overall, it’s likely their tight end group remains a liability in 2025. The Panthers have a deep wide receiver group with a high upside to somewhat offset their issues at tight end, but their tight end situation does hurt their overall grade in the receiving corps and, as much upside as their wide receivers have, there is also some downside as well, as it is a combination of inexperienced young players and an aging Adam Thielen.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Along with Bryce Young’s improvement, the biggest reason for the Panthers’ offensive improvement last season was their offensive line, which went from 27th in pass blocking grade and 28th in run blocking grade on PFF in 2023 to 16th in pass blocking grade and 8th in run blocking grade in 2024. The biggest difference was the addition of a pair of talented guards in free agency, Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, who finished the season with PFF grades of 75.5 and 67.7 respectively, after being signed to contracts of 4 years, 53 million and 5 years, 100 million respectively.

For Lewis, last season was a career best, but it was his 3rd season in five years in the league above 70, so it didn’t come out of nowhere. The 2020 3rd round pick has been inconsistent in his career though, finishing below 60 on PFF in his other two seasons, including a 59.6 PFF grade as recently as 2023. Lewis could remain an above average starter in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee. For Hunt, last year was actually a down year, as he had PFF grades of 73.7 and 77.1 in 2022 and 2023. He’s also been a bit inconsistent in his career, but he’s never finished below 65 on PFF in all five seasons in the league (71 starts), since being selected in the 2nd round in 2020. He comes with a relatively low floor and could easily have a bounce back season in 2025.

The Panthers’ starting tackles in 2024 were the same as 2023, with Ikem Ekwonu at left tackle and Taylor Moton at right tackle. Ekwonu had a career best year in 2024, with a 71.7 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 65.3 and 67.4 in 2022 and 2023 and has always had a huge upside, as the 6th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Still only in his age 25 season, Ekwonu should remain an above average starter in 2025 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued developing and had a career best year. 

Moton, meanwhile, had a 77.2 PFF grade in 2024 that was very in line with how he’s played throughout his career, as he’s never finished below 69.3 on PFF in eight years in his league. Moton missed three games with injury last season, but those were the first three games he’s ever missed in his career. Moton is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start declining this season, but, unless he declines significantly, he’s likely to remain at least a solid starter and it’s very possible he doesn’t decline at all, as he hasn’t shown any signs of doing so yet.

Center is the one uncertain position for the Panthers on this offensive line. The Panthers are probably hoping Austin Corbett can win the job, stay healthy, and play well, but that’s not a guarantee. At his best, Corbett had PFF grades of 70.9, 68.8, and 69.1 in 2020, 2021, and 2022, but he has played just nine games due to injury over the past two seasons since then. Corbett’s past success has also mostly been at guard, as the five starts he made at center last season were his first five starts at the position in his career. Corbett had a 62.2 PFF grade last season, but that’s a limited sample size and now Corbett is going into his age 30 season and coming off of another significant injury. He could stay healthy and continue being a capable starting center in 2025, but that’s not a guarantee.

Corbett will face competition for the starting center job from Cade Mays and Brady Christensen, who had some success at center in Corbett’s absence last season. Mays had a 66.1 PFF grade across eight starts at center, while Christensen had a 63.6 PFF grade in six starts, four at center and two at tackle. Mays, a 6th round pick in 2022, was not as good in five starts at guard in 2023 (58.3 PFF grade) and barely played as a rookie (51 snaps), but he showed potential in his new position at center in 2024, albeit in a small sample size. At the very least, he should be a solid reserve option in 2025, if Corbett manages to win the starting job. 

Christensen, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick who started 24 games in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, 4 at left tackle, 1 at right tackle, 1 at right guard, and 18 at left guard, and he received PFF grades of 61.6, 57.3, and 56.7 across those three seasons. He would probably be best as a versatile reserve who can play any of the five positions upfront if needed, but he’s also probably in the mix to start at center if he outplays Corbett and Mays. 

In addition to Mays and Christensen, the Panthers have other good reserve options. Swing tackle Yosh Nijman has made 25 starts at tackle over the past four seasons, while receiving PFF grades of 63.2, 63.1, 61.7, and 57.9 respectively. Reserve guard Chandler Zavala, a 2023 4th round pick, struggled with a 26.2 PFF grade across 374 snaps as a rookie, but took a big step forward in 2024 with a 71.2 PFF grade across 198 snaps. This was an above average overall offensive line last season and should remain one again this season.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Panthers also had a good running game last season, ranking 10th in the NFL with 4.58 yards per carry, led by feature back Chuba Hubbard, who rushed for 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns on 250 carries (4.78 YPC). Hubbard benefitted from good run blocking, but he also played at a high level as well, averaging 3.46 yards per carry after contact and breaking tackles at a 19.6% rate, leading to him receiving the 9th highest run grade among running backs on PFF. All of that was a big leap forward for Hubbard, who averaged 3.92 yards per carry across 505 carries with 2.76 yards per carry after contact and a 16.0% missed tackle rate in three seasons in the league prior to last season, after being selected in the 4th round in 2021. 

It’s possible Hubbard isn’t quite as good again in 2025, but I would still expect him to at least be an above average feature back. The Panthers also hedged against Hubbard’s potential regression by signing Rico Dowdle in free agency and using a 4th round pick on Trevor Etienne, giving them more options than last season, when backup running back Miles Sanders only averaged 3.73 yards per carry on 55 carries. Dowdle went undrafted in 2020, but showed some potential with 4.06 yards per carry, 2.91 yards per carry after contact, and a 47.2% carry success rate across 89 carries in 2023 and then broke out with 4.59 yards per carry, 3.28 yards per carry after contact, and a 53.6% carry success rate across 235 carries in 2024. 

Dowdle will be the #2 back in Carolina behind Hubbard, who signed a 4-year, 33.2 million dollar extension during last season, but Dowdle also got a decent chunk of change with a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal in free agency this off-season, so he figures to be heavily involved as a backup for a Panthers team that seems to want to rely on their running game and wants a one-two punch at the position. Dowdle could also be the primary passing down back, as he has a decent 1.00 yards per route run average for his career, as opposed to 0.82 for Hubbard. Etienne will be the third back, but he could be good insurance in case either of their top-2 backs get hurt and he also has potential as a receiver, so he also could be involved as a passing down back. This is a talented backfield overall.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Panthers had one of the worst defenses in the league last season. Their offense looks like it is going to be at least decent in 2025, but if this team is going to legitimately contend for a playoff spot, they will need to take a big step forward on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers didn’t make any off-season additions that look likely to move the needle in a significant way, but they do at least get back interior defender Derrick Brown after he was limited to just one game by injury last season, which should be a huge boost to this unit.

In the previous two seasons before missing most of last season, Brown finished with PFF grades of 84.4 and 90.1 across snap counts of 870 and 938 respectively, showing the potential that made him the 7th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He only managed 3 sacks, but he added 22 hits and a 7.9% pressure rate in 34 games in those two seasons, while dominating as a run defender, with PFF grades of 80.6 and 90.0 against the run, good for 3rd and 2nd among interior defenders in those two seasons. Still only going into his age 27 season, with only one game missed in four seasons in the league prior to last season, Brown has a great chance to bounce back at least to close to his 2022 and 2023 form.

In Brown’s absence last season, A’Shawn Robinson (761 snaps), LaBryan Ray (626 snaps), and Shy Tuttle (610 snaps) all played significant roles and all three struggled mightily, with PFF grades of 54.6, 33.0, and 42.7 respectively. All three remain on the roster, but the Panthers did make a pair of additions at the interior defender position in free agency and, while they are not true impact players, they should still be a significant upgrade at the interior defender position for the Panthers.

Tershawn Wharton was the big addition, coming over from the Chiefs on a 3-year, 45.05 million dollar deal. Wharton has been an effective pass rusher throughout his career, with 13.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 7.1% pressure rate in 72 career games since going undrafted in 2020, including 6.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 7.3% pressure rate last season, but he has consistently struggled against the run, finishing below 60 in run defense grade on PFF in all five seasons. He’s also only played 447 snaps per season in his career, primarily as a situational pass rusher. Given the size of his contract, the Panthers may be expecting more than that out of him in 2025. He should remain an effective pass rusher, but he will be a big liability to this team if he has to play an expanded role in run defense situations.

Bobby Brown was also added on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and he’s kind of the opposite of Wharton. He has finished above 60 in run defense grade on PFF in all four seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, but he has only managed a 3.1% pressure rate with just half a sack and 1 hit in his career. He’s also played an even more limited snap count than Wharton in his career, maxing out at 472 snaps per game in a season, while averaging 243 snaps per season across his four seasons in the league. Like Wharton, he will likely play an expanded role in Carolina, but he’s unlikely to make much of an impact in passing situations.

Of the three holdovers who struggled last season, A’Shawn Robinson is the most likely to play a significant role in 2024. Not only was he the best of the bunch by default last season, but he is the most accomplished of the bunch in his career, finishing above 60 in PFF in five of nine seasons in the league, on an average of 34.5 snaps per game and 483 snaps per season. However, two of his four seasons below 60 have come in back-to-back seasons and now he heads into his age 30 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Even in a reserve role, he could struggle.

Shy Tuttle has also had some success in his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in his first four seasons in the league, but he has finished below 60 in back-to-back seasons as well, especially struggling last season, and now he too is going into his age 30 season. LaBryan Ray, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who has never had any success, also struggling with a 54.6 PFF grade across 356 snaps in the first action of his career in 2023 before being even worse in 2024. He may not even make the final roster, with the Panthers also adding Cam Jackson in the 5th round of the draft to give them more depth. With Derrick Brown returning from injury and Tershawn Wharton and Bobby Brown being upgrades by default, this position group looks significantly better than last season, when they were one of the worst interior defender groups in the league.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Panthers also added edge defender Patrick Jones on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal and used second and third round picks on Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen to overhaul their edge defender group, but in the process they released Jadeveon Clowney to save 8 million non-guaranteed ahead of in his age 32 season in 2025 and he was arguably their best defensive player last season, with a 70.8 PFF grade across 650 snaps that was the highest PFF grade by any player on this defense who played significant snaps last season. As a pass rusher, Clowney had 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate and he was also a solid run defender.

It’s unlikely any of the Panthers’ edge defender additions will be as good as Clowney was last season. Scourton and Umanmielen have upside, but are just rookies, while Patrick Jones has finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2021, while totaling just 12 sacks, 14 hits, and a 7.7% pressure rate in 57 career games. The Panthers also should get a healthier season out of DJ Wonnum, who missed nine games last season, but he’s an underwhelming player as well, with PFF grades below 60 in four of five seasons in the league and 27 sacks, 25 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate in 70 career games. DJ Johnson could also be in the mix for a role, but the 2023 3rd round pick has received PFF grades of 50.4 and 54.2 across snap counts of 231 and 392 in two seasons in the league. This looks like a very underwhelming position group after the release of Clowney.

Grade: C

Linebackers

Things aren’t much better at the linebacker position for the Panthers. The Panthers signed Josey Jewell to a 3-year, 18.75 million dollar deal last off-season to replace talented free agent departure Frankie Luvu, but he was a disappointment, finishing with a 56.5 PFF grade across 796 snaps in 12 games. That was the first season of his 7-year career where he finished below 60, so he could bounce back in 2025, but he also is going into his age 31 season, so it’s very possible his best days are behind him and that he will continue struggling.

The rest of this linebacking corps isn’t any better. Trevin Wallace finished second among the Panthers’ linebackers with 582 snaps played last season, but the 2024 3rd round pick struggled as a rookie with a 56.0 PFF grade. He could be better in his second season in the league, but that’s not a guarantee. The Panthers signed Christian Rozeboom to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal in free agency and he will compete for a role, but the 2020 undrafted free agent has struggled in the two seasons in his career in which he has played significant snaps, with PFF grades of 49.0 and 59.0 across snap counts of 552 and 828 in 2023 and 2024 respectively. This is likely to be a below average linebacking corps again in 2025.

Grade: C

Secondary

The best free agent addition the Panthers made on defense this off-season is safety Tre’Von Moehrig. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Moehrig has started 64 of the 66 games he has played in that time and he has mostly been an above average starter, with PFF grades of 72.5, 54.1, 70.2, and 67.5 in four seasons in the league. Still only in his age 26 season, Moehrig should continue playing at a similar level and could potentially even have further untapped upside.

The rest of the Panthers’ safeties are a concern though. Four Panthers safeties played more than 300 snaps last season and three of them struggled, with Xavier Woods (1,216 snaps), Jordan Fuller (574 snaps), and Nick Scott (324 snaps) finishing with PFF grades of 57.0, 53.8, and 52.6. The only Panthers safety who finished above 60 on PFF last season was Demani Richardson, but he still had an underwhelming 60.1 PFF grade and he is a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 403 snaps, so he’s no guarantee to develop into even a capable starter long-term. 

Richardson may end up as a starter in 2025 though due to the lack of a better option. Nick Scott remains on the team, while Woods and Fuller are gone, but Scott has received PFF grades of 47.5, 54.2, 44.0, and 52.6 across an average of 573 snaps per season over the past four seasons and now heads into his age 30 season. The Panthers did use a fourth round pick on Lathan Ransom, but, even if he manages to become a starter as a rookie, it’s unlikely he would play well. 

Things are better at cornerback for the Panthers, though largely by default. Jaycee Horn was decent with a 65.4 PFF grade across 1,034 snaps last season and that was actually a career worst grade for him in four seasons since going 8th overall in 2021, as he finished with PFF grades of 67.8, 71.4, and 84.1 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively, though it also was the first time he stayed relatively healthy, missing just two games after missing 28 total in his first three seasons in the league. Horn is still only going into his age 25 season, so he may have further untapped upside and could eventually put it all together across a healthy season, but he has yet to do that.

Horn will continue starting opposite Mike Jackson, who had a 67.2 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2024. It was the best full season as a starter of his career, but he also had a 60.2 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2022 and flashed a lot of potential with a 77.0 PFF grade across 474 snaps in 2023. Still only in his age 28 season, he should remain a solid starter again in 2025. However, the Panthers’ depth behind Horn and Jackson is very questionable.

The only other cornerback who played more than 100 snaps for the Panthers at cornerback last season who is still on the roster is Chau Smith-Wade, a 2024 5th round pick who struggled with a 51.6 PFF grade across 301 snaps. He is probably the favorite for the #3 cornerback job, with the Panthers making no significant cornerback additions this off-season. Their other best option is Akayleb Evans, a 2022 4th round pick who only played 29 snaps last season, after struggling with a 54.9 PFF grade across 855 snaps in the only significant action of his career in 2023. The rest of the cornerback depth chart consists of former undrafted free agents with little to no NFL experience. The Panthers’ secondary isn’t quite as bad as some other units on this defense, but this is still a unit of concern.

Grade: B-

Kicker

The Panthers’ kicking game was also an issue in 2024, as Eddy Pineiro finished with 2.98 points below average. The Panthers moved on from Pineiro this off-season, replacing him with journeyman Matthew Wright and undrafted rookie Ryan Fitzgerald. Wright is the favorite for the job. He has kicked for six teams in six seasons in the league and has actually accumulated 3.02 points above average over that stretch, with 2.82 points of that coming last season. It remains to be seen if he can be above average for a full season, but he at least has upside.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Panthers’ offense improved significantly down the stretch last season, with Bryce Young seeming to turn a corner in his development, and there is a good chance that continues into 2025. Their defense should be better by default, in large part due to the fact that they figure to be healthier, after having the third most adjusted games lost to injury on defense of any team in the league last season, including the absence of their best player Derrick Brown for all but one game. However, their defense still lacks talent in a significant way, which makes it highly unlikely this team will be able to compete for a playoff spot unless their offense can take things to a completely different level in Bryce Young’s third season in the league. It’s possible, but it seems much more likely that other teams will end up in the post-season in the NFC.

Prediction: 3-14, 3rd in NFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Quarterback

In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars got the #1 pick following a 1-15 season and it seemed like a good year to get that pick, as it gave them the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence, who was viewed as one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory. So far, however, the results have not been what the Jaguars expected. Lawrence struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, as the Jaguars finished with the worst record in the NFL for the second straight year, this time at 3-14. 

Lawrence didn’t have a lot of help from the rest of this roster and the Jaguars had a completely overmatched coaching staff, led by Urban Meyer, who didn’t even make it through his first season in the NFL, so it was easy to give Lawrence a mulligan for that terrible performance. In his second season in the league, Lawrence took a big step forward and showed why he was such a highly regarded prospect, completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while leading the Jaguars to 9 wins, a division title, and a playoff victory. He was especially good down the stretch, completing 69.7% of his passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his final 9 games.

In his third season in the league, Lawrence continued his strong play from the second half of 2022, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in the first 12 games of the season. In total, Lawrence had a 21-game stretch across 2022 and 2023 where he completed 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while leading the Jaguars to a 15-6 record in the regular season. However, Lawrence suffered an injury down the stretch in 2023 and was not nearly the same while trying to play through it, leading to him losing his final 4 starts as the Jaguars fell completely out of the playoff race.

Still, there was reason for optimism going into 2024, given how well Lawrence had played over the course of more than a full season prior to his injury late in 2023. The Jaguars especially seemed optimistic about his 2024 campaign, wanting to get ahead of a potential career best year by giving him an extension prior to the season, rather than waiting for his value to go up. Lawrence still cost the Jaguars a 5-year, 275 million dollar deal, which makes him tied for the second highest paid quarterback in the league as of this writing, but it was reasonable to assume that if Lawrence bounced back from his injury that the cost of that extension after the season would be even higher.

However, Lawrence did not bounce back in 2024, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. The Jaguars’ defense also struggled mightily, leading to the Jaguars going just 2-8 in games started by Lawrence and just 4-13 overall. Injuries again affected his season, costing him seven games, but he was underwhelming even when on the field. Now going into his fifth season in the league, it’s still tough to know what to make of Lawrence. He is still only going into his age 26 season and has shown a pretty high ceiling, but he has also been inconsistent, injury prone, and, overall, his body of work through four seasons in the league has not been in line with a #1 overall pick who was given a huge extension after just three seasons in the league.

The Jaguars don’t have a reasonable opportunity to get out of Lawrence’s extension until after the 2028 season and, in fact, his extension is still a full year away from even starting, so they are tied to him for the foreseeable future. His cap hit as a percentage of the overall cap will stay below 10% for the next two seasons, but it is projected to be at 10.36% in 2027 and 12.65% in 2028, which means it will become increasingly difficult for the Jaguars to surround Lawrence with talent over the next few seasons. In fact, the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, so the Jaguars will need Lawrence to elevate his game to a consistently high level for his contract to be worth it long-term.

To try to get the most out of Lawrence, the Jaguars fired head coach Doug Pederson this off-season after three seasons with the team and replaced him with former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen is credited with getting a career best year out of another inconsistent former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield last season, but Coen is still inexperienced overall, with one year of offensive play calling at the NFL level, and there have been plenty of offensive coordinators who have struggled to translate that success into a head coaching role. Coen hired Grant Udinski as his offensive coordinator and he comes from a successful coaching staff in Minnesota, but he too is inexperienced, with this being his first offensive coordinator job in the NFL. There is plenty of potential here with Lawrence under this new coaching staff, but it remains to be seen if they can make good on that potential.

Lawrence will be backed up by Nick Mullens, who comes with Udinski from Minnesota. In 20 career starts in eight seasons in the league, Mullens has completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.99 YPA, which are both impressive numbers for backup quarterback, but he is also erratic with the ball, throwing 31 interceptions to 34 touchdowns, which is why he has never been looked at as a starting option, despite his ability to consistently pick up big gains through the air. Still, he’s overall a solid backup option. The Jaguars will just be hoping that Lawrence doesn’t suffer a significant injury for the third year in a row, causing them to have to turn to their backup again. 

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Jaguars ended up with the 5th pick last season as a result of their terrible season, but that wasn’t high enough for the Jaguars to get the player they coveted at the top of the draft, as they traded away a package of picks, including the 5th pick, their second rounder this year, and their first rounder next year, to the Browns for the #2 pick, where they selected Colorado’s Travis Hunter. It’s a risky move, in large part because the Jaguars are not guaranteed to be good this year and could be giving the Browns a relatively high pick again next year, but the Jaguars view Hunter as a generational talent worth giving away multiple high picks for.

Hunter is certainly a unique prospect, showing the ability to play every down at a high level on both sides of the ball in college, at wide receiver and cornerback, and his ability to play on both sides of the ball is likely a large part of the reason why the Jaguars felt comfortable giving up so much for him, as they could view him as essentially multiple players. However, whether he is capable of doing what he did at the collegiate level at the NFL level remains to be seen. 

It will be a lot of work mentally to learn two positions at a high level in the NFL and physically it significantly increases his chances of injury long-term to have roles on both sides of the ball. Ultimately, it seems likely he will focus primarily on one side of the ball long-term, with a much smaller role on the other side of the ball, but he might not be good enough at either position to justify the Jaguars giving up that much draft capital to select him if he isn’t playing both sides of the ball at an effective level.

Given where the Jaguars need him the most, it seems likely Hunter will primarily be a wide receiver this season, with a smaller role as a cornerback on defense. The Jaguars overhauled their receiving corps this off-season, letting go of veterans Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, who were effective last season with yards per route run averages of 1.72 and 1.51 respectively, but who were limited to 8 games and 9 games respectively due to injury, as well as letting go of Gabe Davis, who struggled mightily with 0.95 yards per route run across 10 games.

Hunter will be part of replacing Kirk and Davis at wide receiver and the Jaguars also added Dyami Brown on a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal in free agency. Brown was a third round pick in 2021, but he has totaled just 59 catches for 784 yards and 4 touchdowns in his career, with just a 1.10 yards per route run average. He had an impressive run in the post-season for the Commanders last year, averaging 2.44 yards per route run over a 3-game span, and the Jaguars are hoping he has permanently turned a corner, still only going into his age 26 season, but that’s a very small sample size and Brown benefited significantly from having Jayden Daniels at quarterback. 

It seems unlikely Brown will develop into anything more than a decent #3 receiver in on his one-year deal with the Jaguars. The Jaguars also still have Parker Washington, who took on a big role down the stretch last season when Kirk and Davis were out, but he only averaged a 1.02 yards per route run average, which is actually up from the 0.75 yards per route run that the 2023 6th round pick averaged as a rookie, so he’s a very underwhelming option as well.

The constant in this wide receiver group is Brian Thomas, a 2024 first round pick who had a huge rookie season, with a 87/1282/10 slash line and 2.45 yards per route run. Thomas benefited from a high target total (133) and target share (25.5%) on a team with little in the way of other options, but he also faced frequent double teams as a result. This season could be a similar situation, given the state of the rest of this wide receiver group, with the difference being that Thomas is now another year more experienced and could get better quarterback play on a better offense if Trevor Lawrence stays healthy and plays up to his potential in this new offense.

To replace Evan Engram at tight end, they are giving a bigger role to Brenton Strange, who fared well as the primary tight end last season when Engram was out, finishing the season with a 40/411/2 slash line and 1.49 yards per route run, including a 29/275/2 slash line in eight games without Engram. Strange was a 2nd round pick in 2023, so he’s always had the upside to develop into an above average starting tight end, but he struggled mightily as a rookie with a 0.41 yards per route run average, and is still relatively inexperienced and unproven as a starting tight end, so, while he comes with a lot of upside, he also comes with a lot of downside.

The Jaguars signed Johnny Mundt and Hunter Long in free agency, but they only signed deals worth 5.5 million over 2 years and 5 million over 2 years respectively and are only backup options behind Strange. Mundt is an 8-year veteran, but barely played in his first five seasons in the league (10 total catches) and has finished below 60 on PFF in two of the past three seasons, while averaging 1.00 yards per route run over that stretch. Mundt is also now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him, to the extent he ever had best days.

Long, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick who hasn’t really developed. He played more snaps last season than he had in his first three seasons in the league combined, but that was still a snap count of just 279, after 239 combined in his first three seasons, and he has just a 0.52 yards per route run average in his career. Both are underwhelming backup options. This receiving corps has talent, led by #1 receiver Brian Thomas and the upside of rookie Travis Hunter, but this is a top heavy group that could be underwhelming overall again. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Jaguars also overhauled their offensive line this off-season. Center Mitch Morse retired ahead of what would have been his age 33 season, while right guard Brandon Scherff wasn’t retained ahead of his age 34 season. In their place, the Jaguars signed Robert Hainsey to replace Morse at center and Patrick Mekari to replace Scherff at right guard. Hainsey was signed to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and Mekari was signed to a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal, but it’s not a guarantee they will be a significant upgrade, even though Morse and Scherff had PFF grades of just 57.9 and 64.7 respectively. 

Hainsey, a 2021 3rd round pick, made 34 starts with the Buccaneers from 2022-2023, but he was underwhelming, with PFF grades of 66.7 and 52.8, and subsequently was replaced by a first round pick in Graham Barton last off-season. Hainsey showed some potential as a reserve last season, with a 73.3 PFF grade across 94 snaps, but that is no guarantee that his second stint as a starter goes better than his first stint. Mekari, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, while making 53 starts, but he had his worst season last season with a 60.4 PFF grade, which coincided with a career high in starts at 17, after previously never making more than 12 starts in a season. Mekari has been at his best as a versatile super sub in the past and it’s unclear if he can be more than marginal as a full-time starter.

The rest of this offensive line is the same as it ended last season, but the Jaguars did make a big change at left tackle mid-season last year, trading away Cam Robinson so that Walker Little could take over for him. Little was a second round pick in 2021, but he had only made 17 career starts prior to week 7 of last season. Little had shown potential in limited action though, with PFF grades of 68.5, 61.1, and 58.8 in his first three seasons in the league, and then he broke out with a career best 72.8 PFF grade last season after becoming the full-time starter. By trading Robinson in the final year of his contract and extending Little on a 3-year, 40.5 million dollar deal, the Jaguars essentially chose the younger, less experienced Walker over Robinson and it appears they made the right decision. He’s still relatively inexperienced, but he could easily remain an above average starter, still only going into his age 26 season.

Ezra Cleveland and Anton Harrison remain at left guard and right tackle respectively. Cleveland, a 2020 2nd round pick, has made 69 starts in five seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons, maxing out at 73.5 in 2022 and finishing at 64.9 last season. He should remain at least a capable starter again in 2025. Harrison, meanwhile, was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled as a rookie with a 53.0 PFF grade across 17 starts, before taking a step forward with a 64.2 PFF grade across 16 starts. Still only going into his age 23 season, Harrison could have his best season yet in 2025.

The Jaguars’ starting five offensive line isn’t bad, but it isn’t particularly good either and their depth is a concern as well. Chuma Edoga was added in free agency to be the swing tackle and he’s been mostly mediocre through 23 starts in six seasons in the league. On the interior, the Jaguars used a 3rd round pick on guard Wyatt Milum and they have center Luke Fortner, a 2022 3rd round pick who made all 34 starts in his first two seasons in the league, but struggled mightily with PFF grades of 49.6 and 44.3 respectively, leading to him being replaced by Mitch Morse last off-season. Overall, this is an underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

At running back, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby split carries pretty evenly last season, with carry totals of 150 and 168 respectively. That was a big change from 2022 and 2023, when Etienne was the Jaguars’ clear lead back. It looked like that would remain the case in 2024, but Etienne declined in efficiency for the second year in a row, while Bigsby had a mini breakout year in his second season in the league, after struggling with a 2.64 YPC average on 50 carries as a 3rd round rookie in 2023.

Etienne, a 2021 first round pick, missed his whole rookie year with injury, but returned to rush for 1,125 yards and 5 touchdowns on 220 carries in 2022, averaging 5.11 YPC, with 3.10 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 50.9%, and a missed tackle rate of 26.0%. In 2023, he fell to 3.78 YPC on 267 carries, with 2.87 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 43.1%, and a missed tackle rate of 24.0% and then in 2024, he fell to 3.72 YPC, with 2.48 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 45.3%, and a missed tackle rate of 11.3%. Bigsby, meanwhile, improved to a 4.56 YPC average last season, with 3.74 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 49.4%, and a missed tackle rate of 27.4%.

The Jaguars seemed unsatisfied with their backfield options this off-season and may have taken the draft class’ top running back, Ashton Jeanty, at 5 if they had been unable to move up to take Travis Hunter. Instead, the Jaguars waited until the 4th round, when they took Bhayshul Tuten, who could have an immediate role as part of a three headed backfield. Etienne is probably locked into the primary passing down role, averaging a 44/349/0 slash line with 1.07 yards per route run over the past three seasons, while Bigsby has averaged just 0.36 yards per route run in his career, but Tuten does have some upside as a receiver as well and could play his way into some snaps on passing downs. Overall, this is an underwhelming backfield, but the Jaguars do have some options.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Jaguars’ defense was a big problem last season. Overall, they ranked 31st in yards per play allowed and 30th in first down rate allowed. They did have one obvious strength though, their edge defender duo of Josh Allen and Travon Walker combined for 18.5 of the teams’ 34 sacks (5th worst in the NFL). Walker led the team with 10.5 sacks, but Allen was the better of the two, as he added 9 hits and a 12.9% pressure rate to his 8 sacks, while also playing at a high level against the run, leading to a dominant 82.7 PFF grade. 

That was nothing new for Allen, who had PFF grades of 78.5, 82.9, and 89.5 in his previous three seasons, while combining for 40 sacks, 54 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 66 games over the past four seasons. Still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. Walker, meanwhile, only added 5 hits and a 10.1% pressure rate to his 10.5 sacks, finishing only slightly above average on PFF with a 68.2 grade. That was a career best PFF grade for Walker, who had grades of 60.3 and 53.9 in his first two seasons in the league, but the former #1 overall pick is still only going into his age 25 season and could have more untapped upside. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have another career best year in 2025.

Behind Allen and Walker, the Jaguars had Arik Armstead, a hybrid player who split snaps between the edge and the interior. Armstead had a 68.7 PFF grade across 569 snaps, with 2 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate, which isn’t bad, but it is a decline from most of his career, as he has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of ten seasons in the league, while totaling 35.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 133 career games. Armstead is now heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue declining in 2025. 

Behind Allen, Walker, and Armstead, the Jaguars’ options are limited. Yasir Abdullah had a 56.6 PFF grade across 170 snaps last season, after posting a 30.7 PFF grade across 45 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2023. Myles Cole, a 2024 7th round pick, had a 34.0 PFF grade across 135 snaps as a rookie. The Jaguars added veteran Emmanuel Ogbah in free agency this off-season, but he is going into his age 32 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons, after being a solid player in his prime. This is a talented edge defender group, but it is a bit of a top heavy position group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a big position of weakness last season, as only one of the Jaguars’ top five interior defenders in terms of snaps played finished above 60 on PFF. That one player, Jeremiah Ledbetter, who had a 63.0 PFF grade across 441 snaps, is no longer with the team and the Jaguars didn’t make any significant additions to this group this off-season, but there is at least some room for optimism at this position because the Jaguars have some young players with upside.

Probably the highest upside player of the group is Maason Smith, who only had a 43.7 PFF grade across 384 snaps last season, but the 2024 2nd round pick could easily take a big step forward in his second season in the league, though obviously that’s far from a guarantee and, even if he does, he has a long way to go towards being a solid starter. The Jaguars also took Jordan Jefferson in the 4th round of the 2024 NFL Draft and he showed some promise as a rookie with a 62.7 PFF grade, albeit on just 151 snaps. Tyler Lacy, a 2023 4th round pick, is also in the mix for a role, but he has PFF grades of 58.2 and 45.2 across snap counts of 145 and 340 respectively in his first two seasons in the league.

Veteran Davon Hamilton will also likely continue playing a role. He may have some upside, as he had a 74.9 PFF grade across 610 snaps in 2022 and is still only in his age 28 season, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in his other four seasons in the league, so it’s very possible that 2022 was a fluke and that he will continue struggling. Overall, this looks like a very underwhelming position group, but it at least has some upside.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Jaguars did get some good play out of the linebacker position last season, led by a talented duo of Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun. Lloyd is a 2022 1st round pick who has posted PFF grades of 78.1 and 76.7 over the past two seasons respectively on snap counts of 966 and 884 respectively, after struggling with a 48.3 PFF grade across 925 snaps as a rookie. Lloyd is likely to continue being an above average every down linebacker going forward, seemingly having permanently turned a corner. Oluokun, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 69.6, 75.2, and 68.5 across snap counts of 1,145, 1,110, and 815 over the past three seasons respectively since joining the Jaguars. He is now going into his age 30 season and could start declining soon, but there is a good chance he remains at least a solid starter for another season.

Depth is a bit of a concern behind the Jaguars’ top-2 linebackers though, which could be an issue if either Lloyd or Oluokon miss time with injury. Chad Muma was a third round pick in 2022 and has PFF grades of 54.9, 38.1, and 57.4 across 692 total snaps played in three seasons in the league. Ventrell Miller is a 2023 4th round pick who struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade across 482 snaps in the first action of his career last season. The Jaguars also added 4th and 6th round picks through this year’s draft, taking Jack Kiser and Jalen McLeod respectively. All of the options are likely to struggle if forced into a significant role by injuries in 2025, but the Jaguars will have a good linebacker duo if both options stay healthy.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Safety was a position of weakness for the Jaguars last season, as Andre Cisco (979 snaps), Darnell Savage (764 snaps), and Antonio Johnson (685 snaps) all played significant snap totals, but all struggled, with PFF grades of 58.8, 46.2, and 50.1 respectively. Cisco wasn’t retained this off-season, but the Jaguars didn’t do much to replace him, only signing Eric Murray in free agency and using a third round pick on Caleb Ransaw. They will compete with holdovers Antonio Johnson and Darnell Savage for starting jobs.

Murray had a decent 61.7 PFF grade across 857 snaps last season, but that was the first season in which he played more than 400 snaps and had a PFF grade higher than 60 since 2018, which was the only other time he has done that in nine seasons in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, it seems unlikely he will do that two years in a row, so he’s likely to be a liability if he ends up winning a starting job. 

Savage is a former first round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in three of his six seasons in the league and he is only in his age 28 season, but those three seasons below 60 have come in the past four seasons, so it seems likely he will remain a liability if he wins the starting job again in 2025. Johnson, meanwhile, is a 2023 5th round pick who flashed potential with a 73.8 PFF grade across 172 snaps as a rookie, but who couldn’t translate that into a much larger role last season. Regardless of which two safeties end up as the starters, safety is likely to remain a position of liability in 2025.

The Jaguars weren’t as bad at cornerback last season, but they still spent to add ex-Cowboys cornerback Jourdan Lewis on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal that likely locks him into a starting role. Lewis had a 71.7 PFF grade across 871 snaps last season, but that was a higher season-long grade than any season in the five seasons prior, a stretch in which he finished below 60 three times. Lewis is now going into his age 30 season, so it seems unlikely he will be able to repeat last season’s performance.

Tyson Campbell and Jarrian Jones are likely locked into starting roles as well. Campbell looked like he was on his way to being one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come after a 2022 campaign in which the 2021 2nd round pick finished with a 82.1 PFF grade, following a 62.7 PFF grade across 864 snaps as a rookie. However, he has fallen to PFF grades of 61.5 and 62.9 respectively over the past two seasons. 

Campbell is still only going into his age 25 season though, so he still has plenty of upside and it’s likely that injuries have been part of the reason for his disappointing play over the past two seasons, as he has missed 11 games over those two seasons combined, while being limited in numerous others. He’s still a complete one-year wonder in terms of being the player he was in 2022, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if 2025 was at least the second best season of his career.

Jarrion Jones, meanwhile, is a 2024 3rd round pick who had an impressive rookie season in the slot, with a 69.0 PFF grade across 699 snaps. He should continue being a solid slot cornerback, with the upside to continue getting better. The Jaguars also still have Montaric Brown, who was decent with a 62.2 PFF grade across 855 snaps, but who will likely be a reserve this season with Jourdan Lewis being added. Brown is also a one-year wonder, as the 2022 7th round had PFF grades of 37.3 and 51.3 on snap counts of 63 and 475 respectively in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Travis Hunter will also have a role as a reserve as well. The Jaguars are much better at cornerback than safety, but have an underwhelming secondary overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Jaguars used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker in Cam Little and it proved to be a smart move, as he went 27 of 29 on field goals, including 13 of 15 on kicks of 40+ yards, as well as 27 of 27 on extra points. In terms of points above average, Little ranked 6th in the NFL with 8.54. It is only one year, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he ended up being one of the best kickers in the league for years to come. 

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Jaguars roster isn’t significantly improved compared to a year ago. They made some additions in free agency, but none of them look likely to move the needle. They are hoping that their rookie class and improved coaching on both sides of the ball can help them improve, which is likely true, but the Jaguars finished last season 27th in yards per play differential and 31st in first down rate differential, so they have a long way to go to even be an average team and it looks unlikely that will happen in 2025.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC South

New England Patriots 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Patriots

Quarterback

The Patriots were once the standard of consistent excellence in the NFL, winning their division 17 times in a 20-year span from 2000-2019, with nine Super Bowl appearances, six Super Bowl victories, and the league’s best record during that stretch by a wide margin. However, things have quickly fallen apart since Tom Brady left during the 2020 off-season. The Patriots have made the post-season once in five years without him, with no division titles, no post-season victories, and a record of 33-51 over those five seasons. They have been especially bad over the past two seasons, bottoming out with a combined 8-26 record.

Brady’s departure obviously is a big part of why they have struggled in recent years, but their poor drafting in recent years has been a big problem as well and that dates back to even before Brady left. The last time this team drafted a player who made an All-Pro on either offense or defense was back in the 2016 NFL Draft, when they took Joe Thuney. The result is a roster that has been one of the worst in the league over the past two seasons.

Because they haven’t drafted well, the Patriots haven’t had players worth giving big second contracts to. The result of that is the Patriots entered this off-season with the most cap space in the league. The Patriots spent aggressively this off-season, but spending in free agency often means overpaying players that other teams didn’t want to keep, while the good teams build through the draft and use their cap space to keep their talent. That was largely the case for the Patriots this off-season.

That being said, there are some reasons to be optimistic for the Patriots. For one, while many of their off-season additions were overpays, they do make this team better. On top of that, the Patriots added an experienced head coach in Mike Vrabel, who consistently got the most out of his talent in Tennessee. Vrabel brings with him an experienced offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels, whose success as an offensive coordinator in his career has led to him getting two head coaching opportunities. 

Probably the biggest reason to be optimistic about this team’s future is their talented young quarterback. As bad as the Patriots have drafted in recent years, they seem like they hit on the #3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, when they selected Drake Maye. Maye’s numbers weren’t impressive as a rookie, as he completed 66.6% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, with 7.80 YPC and 2 touchdowns on 54 carries, but his supporting cast was a big part of the reason for his underwhelming production, as Maye himself finished with a solid PFF grade of 70.1. Now going into his second season in the league, with a better supporting cast and an improved coaching staff, Maye could easily take a big step forward, both in terms of his own level of play and particularly in terms of his level of production.

The Patriots actually drafted two quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft, taking Joe Milton with a 6th round pick. He made a start in a meaningless week 18 game against the Bills’ backups last season and impressed, completing 22 of 29 for 241 yards and a touchdown. That could have been the start of Milton developing into a good backup for Drake Maye, but Milton reportedly felt he should have been the starter long-term instead and the Patriots were forced to deal him to the Cowboys for a swap of late round picks this off-season and will instead have a veteran in Joshua Dobbs behind Maye on the depth chart.

Dobbs is a mediocre backup option, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 5.98 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions across 549 career pass attempts and 15 starts in eight seasons in the league, with just 3 of those starts being wins. He also doesn’t have much upside, going into his age 30 season, and would be a big downgrade from Maye if forced to make significant starts. Still, this quarterback room is going in the right direction with Drake Maye looking like a potential future franchise quarterback, something he could take another step forward towards becoming in his second season in the league in 2025.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

One of the biggest off-season additions the Patriots made was signing wide receiver Stefon Diggs to a 3-year, 63.5 million dollar deal. Diggs has been one of the most accomplished wide receivers in the league over his 10 seasons in the league, surpassing 1000 yards receiving in every season from 2018-2023, while averaging 2.09 yards per route run for his career. He seemed like he was on his way to another 1000+ yard season in 2024, when he had a 47/496/3 slash line and 1.84 yards per route run through eight games, but he then tore his ACL and missed the rest of the season.

Not Diggs is not only coming off of a significant injury, but he’s also going into his age 32 season. Age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability, as a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. It seems likely Diggs’ best days are behind him, but even at significantly less than his peak, he would still be a boost for a receiving corps that was arguably the worst in the NFL last season. He figures to be the de facto #1 wide receiver, even with his age and injury concerns.

The rest of this wide receiver group is unsettled. Demario Douglas is probably the favorite to be the #2 wide receiver. The 2023 6th round pick has been their top wide receiver by default over the past two seasons, averaging a 58/591/2 slash line and 1.53 yards per route run through two seasons in the league. Douglas is still only going into his age 25 season and may have further untapped upside, but he’s still pretty underwhelming as a #2 receiver.

Also in the mix for roles are third round rookie Kyle Williams, veteran journeyman free agent signing Mack Hollins, veteran holdover Kendrick Bourne, 2023 6th round pick Kayshon Boutte, and 2024 2nd round pick JaLynn Polk. Williams has upside, but might be too raw to contribute in a significant way as a rookie. Hollins has averaged just 1.07 yards per route run in eight seasons in the league, including just 0.92 yards per route run last season, and now heads into his age 32 season. Bourne averaged 1.76 yards per route run across his first three seasons with the Patriots, but suffered a torn ACL midway through his third season in 2023 and was not the same upon his return in 2024, averaging just 1.06 yards per route run. 

Bourne could be better in 2025, another year removed from his injury, but that’s not a guarantee, especially since he’s also getting up there in age, now heading into his age 30 season. Boutte was second on the team among wide receivers in receiving with a 43/589/3 slash line last season, but was part of the problem, with just 1.26 yards per route run, in the first significant action of his career. Polk has still upside, but struggled mightily with 0.35 yards per route run as a rookie. It’s possible that several of these wide receivers will play situational/rotational roles as the Patriots try to make the most of a wide receiver group that has some options, but is underwhelming overall.

The strength of this receiving corps last season was the tight end spot, where Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper finished with slash lines of 66/674/2 and 45/476/3 respectively on averages of 1.39 yards per route run and 1.65 yards per route run respectively. Henry’s performance last season was largely in line with his career average of 1.47 yards per route run, while Hooper also has a decent 1.37 yards per route run average for his career. 

The problem is both are now heading into their age 31 season and could start to decline. They’ll probably still be heavily involved in the offense, given the Patriots’ issues at wide receiver, but they might not be as efficient or effective as a year ago. The Patriots don’t have any promising young tight end options behind them on the depth chart, with 2024 7th round pick Jaheim Bell, who played just 84 mediocre snaps as a rookie, likely to be the #3 tight end. This receiving corps is better by default than last season, but is still an unsettled group that has a lot of concerns.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As bad as the Patriots’ receiving corps was last season, their offensive line was arguably even worse, finishing 31st on PFF in pass blocking grade and 32nd in run blocking grade. A ridiculous twelve different offensive linemen made starts for the Patriots last season and only one of them finished above 60 on PFF. Fortunately, the Patriots made some additions to this offensive line this off-season that should be upgrades, even if some are likely to be upgrades by default.

The biggest addition they made was using the 4th overall pick on LSU left tackle Will Campbell. Campbell isn’t as good as most left tackle prospects selected in the top-5 and may ultimately have to move to right tackle or guard long-term, but he should still be an immediate upgrade at left tackle and is likely to be an above average starter somewhere on this offensive line long-term. Additionally, the Patriots signed veterans Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury in free agency and used a third round pick on Jared Wilson.

Moses will start at right tackle, where he has made 157 starts over the past ten seasons, with just six games missed due to injury over that stretch. Moses has also finished above 60 on PFF in all ten of those seasons, including six seasons over 70. However, Moses now heads into his age 34 season and his 63.3 PFF grade in 2024 was the lowest across that stretch. Additionally, all six of the games he has missed with injury over that stretch have come in the past two seasons. 

Moses’ best days are almost definitely behind him at this point and he could continue declining and/or miss more time with injury. However, he will still be a welcome addition, given how bad the Patriots were at right tackle last season. Moses will be backed up by Caedan Wallace, who was one of those right tackles who struggled last season, with a 44.1 PFF grade across 129 snaps as a rookie, but he was a 2024 3rd round pick and still has upside long-term.

Bradbury, meanwhile, will start at center. The 2019 1st round pick has never lived up to where he was drafted. He has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons (72 starts), but he has maxed out at a 70.2 PFF grade, so he’s no more than a solid starter at best, especially now going into his age 30 season. Like Moses, he should still be a welcome addition. Jared Wilson is also primarily a center, but his best path to playing time as a rookie is probably at left guard, where Cole Strange is currently penciled in as the starter.

Strange is a former first round pick, selected 29th overall in 2022, but he was a reach when he was selected there and hasn’t shown anything in three seasons in the league to suggest that wasn’t the case. Strange did take a step forward between year one and year two, going from a 54.6 PFF grade to a 64.6 PFF grade, but then he suffered a brutal knee injury late in his second season that kept him out for most of his third season in 2024 and when he returned he only had a 48.6 PFF grade across 117 snaps. Another year removed from his injury, Strange could bounce back to his 2022 form, but that’s not a guarantee and, even if he does, it’s unlikely he ever proves himself to have been worth a first round pick.

At right guard, Mike Onwenu is the only holdover who didn’t struggle last season, with a 65.2 PFF grade in 17 starts. That was actually a down year for him, as the 2020 6th round pick received PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, and 71.5 across a total of 56 starts in his first four seasons in the league, prior to last season. Still only in his age 28 season, Onwenu has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. With Onwenu likely to bounce back, the additions of Campbell, Moses, Bradbury, and Wilson, and Cole Strange potentially bouncing back as well, this offensive line looks a lot better than a year ago, but this is still only an average unit at best.

Grade: B

Running Backs

The running back position wasn’t a position of weakness last season. Lead back Rhamondre Stevenson only averaged 3.87 yards per carry across 207 carries, but that was largely because he struggled to find running room on an overall poor offense. In three seasons in the league prior to last season, Stevenson averaged 4.54 yards per carry across 499 carries and, only in his age 27 season, he should bounce back on a better offense in 2025. However, the Patriots still used a high draft pick on another running back, TreVeyon Henderson, who they selected in the second round. Henderson might not take Stevenson’s lead back job as a rookie, but he figures to at least the second part of a one-two punch at running back, using his speed and athleticism to complement the size of the 6-0 227 Stevenson.

Stevenson’s addition likely means the end of Antonio Gibson having a significant role on this offense. He was actually great in limited action last season, significantly exceeding Stevenson’s average with a 4.48 YPC on 120 carries, while ranking 2nd among running backs with 3.91 yards per carry after contact and 1st among running backs with a 131.2 elusive rating. That was out of line with his career averages though, as he averaged 4.11 yards per carry, 2.76 yards per carry after contact, and maxed out at an elusive rating of 86.9 in his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. He would likely need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see any sort of significant role on this offense, but he’s great insurance as far as #3 backs go.

Gibson was also the Patriots’ best receiving back last season, averaging 1.26 yards per route run and taking 29 targets for a 23/206/0 slash line, as opposed to 0.62 yards per route run and a 33/168/1 slash line on 41 targets for Stevenson, but pass catching was a strength of Henderson’s game at the collegiate level and he is likely to take a big chunk of Gibson’s playing time on passing downs as well. Stevenson could also bounce back a little bit as a receiver, as his career average of 1.01 yards per route run significantly exceeds his 2024 average. This is a solid backfield overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Patriots weren’t as bad on defense as they were on offense last season, but they still made some big additions on this side of the ball this off-season. The biggest addition was interior defender Milton Williams, who they signed to a 4-year, 104 million dollar deal, making him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league. Williams has had solid PFF grades of 72.6, 69.7, and 70.1 over the past three seasons, playing the run pretty well and adding 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate, but he only has snap counts of 396, 494, and 500 over those three seasons, so he is a projection to the larger role the Patriots are almost definitely counting on him to play. Milton was a third round pick in 2021 and is still only going into his age 26 season, so he could easily have the upside to become an above average every down interior defender, but that’s not a guarantee and the Patriots are betting a lot of money to find out.

Williams will start next to Christian Barmore, who also has a lot of upside. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Barmore had PFF grades of 63.5 and 68.6 across snap counts of 598 and 327 in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 83.8 PFF grade across 750 snaps in 2023. Barmore was a high level pass rusher even in his first two seasons, combining for 12.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 44 games across the three seasons, and his run defense caught up with that in his third season. 

However, Barmore missed most of last season recovering from a serious illness and, while he is expected to return to full strength in 2025, that is not necessarily a guarantee. Even if he does return to full strength, he’s still a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023. Only in his age 26 season, he could be one of the better interior defenders in the league for years to come if he can return to form, but he comes with some downside as well.

Daniel Ekuale and Davon Godchaux were the Patriots’ top-2 interior defenders last season in terms of snaps played at 723 and 680 respectively, but they were a mediocre duo, with PFF grades of 60.3 and 51.6 respectively, and neither was retained this off-season. Jeremiah Pharms is their leader in terms of snaps played among returning interior defenders and he will likely still have a reserve role, but the 2022 undrafted free agent struggled with a 58.1 PFF grade across 457 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2024 and he will likely continue struggling in 2025.

The Patriots also added Khyiris Tonga in free agency and used a 4th round pick on Joshua Farmer to give them additional depth at the interior defender position. Tonga has mostly been solid in his career, with PFF grades of 52.1, 77.9, 67.7, and 60.0 in four seasons since being selected in the 7th round in 2021, but he has only played snap counts of 217, 276, 188, and 229 in those four seasons, so he would be best as a deep reserve and would be a projection to a larger role if forced into one. Farmer, meanwhile, has upside, but is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one. This should be a solid position group overall, led by Christian Barmore, who is returning from a lost season, and Milton Williams, who was added in free agency.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Patriots also added Harold Landry and K’Lavon Chaisson in free agency, on deals worth 43.5 million over 3 years and 3 million over 1 year respectively. They will replace Deatrich Wise, who left this off-season after receiving a mediocre 59.7 PFF grade across 409 snaps last season, and they will take some of the burden off of Keion White and Anfernee Jennings, who were likely overstretched last season with snap counts of 830 and 831 respectively.

White will probably be the best of the bunch. A 2023 2nd round pick, White was decent as a rookie with a 64.2 PFF grade across 522 snaps before taking a step forward in year two with a 68.5 PFF grade, holding up against the run and totaling 5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. He could be even better in his third season in the league in 2024, especially if a reduced snap count makes him more efficient. Jennings, meanwhile, is best as a situational run stopper, with PFF grades of 71.4, 78.0, 85.9, and 73.0 against the run in four seasons in the league, but only a career 8.4% pressure rate, including just 2.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate in 2024.

Landry is also a better run defender than pass rusher, totaling 50.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 9.8% pressure rate in 98 career games, while surpassing 60 on PFF in run defense grade in every season except his rookie season in 2018, including a 82.2 run defense grade last season (6th among edge defenders), which offset the 9 sacks, 6 hits, and 7.1% pressure rate he had as a pass rusher. I would expect him to be a similar player again in 2025, above average as a run defender and below average as a pass rusher. He rejoins former head coach Mike Vrabel, who he was with in Tennessee for the first six seasons of his career from 2018-2023.

Chaisson, meanwhile, is a bust as a 2020 1st round pick, finishing below average on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, on an average of just 336 snaps per season, but he seemed to take a step forward in his fifth season in the league, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade across 508 snaps. It’s possible last season proves to be a fluke and, even if it wasn’t, it’s not exactly a great season, but he’s always had talent and is still only in his age 26 season, so it’s very possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a decent rotational player. This is a decent, if unspectacular edge defender group.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Patriots also added Robert Spillane and Jack Gibbens to a linebacking corps that also returns their top-2 linebackers in terms of snaps played from last season, Jahlani Tavai (916 snaps) and Christian Elliss (514 snaps). Spillane signed for 33 million over 3 years, while Gibbens signed for just 1.3 million over 1 year. Spillane is likely locked into a starting role by virtue of his salary. Spillane has been one of the best run stopping linebackers in the league over the past three seasons, with PFF run defense grades of 77.3, 89.0, and 87.3 respectively, but he has also consistently struggled in coverage, with PFF coverage grades of 39.5, 59.0, and 48.8 respectively. Now in his age 30 season, he is who he is at this stage of his career and could start to decline in 2025. He might not play quite every down, coming off the field in some passing situations in a deep linebacking corps, but I expect him to play significant snaps as a starter.

Tavai had PFF grades of 73.5 and 86.6 across snap counts of 570 and 838 in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but he fell to a 54.7 PFF grade across 916 snaps in 2024. That’s largely in line with how Tavai played before joining the Patriots, when he had PFF grades of 61.6 and 32.1 on snap counts of 597 and 624 in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Tavai was a second round pick in 2019 and has always had upside, but it’s very possible he will never be the same linebacker he was under former head coach Bill Belichick. Tavai is still relatively young in his age 29 season and could have some bounce back potential, but he also could continue struggling.

Elliss actually played pretty well last season, with a 72.6 PFF grade across 514 snaps as a part-time player. That kind of came out of nowhere, as the 2021 undrafted free agent had only played 150 nondescript snaps in three seasons in the league prior to last season, so he could regress in 2025, but he could still earn a role at least as a coverage linebacker and has a good chance to be useful in that role. 

Gibbens, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent signing from Mike Vrabel’s Titans. He had a decent 60.0 PFF grade across 214 snaps as a rookie, seemed to break out as a solid situational run stopper in 2023, with a 71.2 PFF grade across 628 snaps, and he seemed to be on his way to an even better season in 2024, when he had a 83.2 PFF grade across 234 snaps, but he suffered a season ending injury and wasn’t retained as a restricted free agent. Now in New England, he should at least be good depth, but could also earn a role as an early down linebacker. This isn’t a spectacular unit, but the Patriots have options in a deep group overall.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Patriots’ secondary was the strength of their defense last season and should remain a strength in 2025. Christian Gonzalez, who the Patriots selected 17th overall in 2023, has been the best draft pick the Patriots have had in years. He flashed a lot of talent with a 80.8 PFF grade across 209 snaps in an injury shortened rookie season and translated that to a season-long role in 2024, when he ranked 12th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 76.0 grade. Still only going into his age 23 season, there is no reason to expect Gonzalez won’t develop into one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

The Patriots gave Carlton Davis a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal to hopefully upgrade the other cornerback spot, with Jonathan Jones leaving this off-season after a 60.7 PFF grade across 712 snaps. Davis finished last season with a 74.5 PFF grade and, while that was the best season of his career and he has been inconsistent throughout his career, he has also finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of his seven seasons in the league, since being selected in the 2nd round in 2018. He’s still relatively young in his age 29 season and should at least be a solid starter. The one concern with him is injuries, as he has missed at least two games due to injury in every season in the league, with 27 games missed total. 

Slot cornerback Marcus Jones remains. He’s a solid option when healthy, with PFF grades of 67.6, 64.2, and 70.2 in three seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2022, but he’s missed at least two games in every season in the league, with 20 games missed total. The 586 snaps he played last season were a career high. If he can stay healthy, he should remain a solid slot option, still only in his age 27 season, but it seems likely he will miss more time with injury at some point this season.

Cornerback depth is an issue, especially given how injury prone some of the starters are. The top reserve options are 2023 7th round pick Alex Austin, who has been decent but unspectacular with PFF grades of 62.0 and 61.1 across snap counts of 216 and 234 in two seasons in the league, Marcellas Dial, a 2024 6th round pick who played 61 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and 4th round rookie Craig Woodson. One of those three would be forced into a significant role if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart and they could easily struggle in that significant role.

At safety, Jabrill Peppers leads the way and is one of the better safeties in the league when on the field. He was limited to 372 snaps in six games due to off-the-field problems last season, but he still had a 82.3 PFF grade, after posting a 87.3 PFF grade across 955 snaps in 2023 and a 75.0 PFF grade across 398 snaps in a situational role in 2022. Peppers is now heading into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but even if he declines somewhat, the Patriots’ defense will still benefit from likely having him on the field for significantly more games in 2025 than he played in 2024.

Peppers will likely start next to Kyle Dugger, who has been a solid starter for most of his career, but who struggled mightily in a down year last season, finishing with a 44.3 PFF grade across 759 snaps. Prior to last season, the 2020 2nd round pick had finished above 60 in all four seasons in the league, including PFF grades of 71.8 and 78.4 respectively in 2021 and 2022 respectively. Still only going into his age 29 season, Dugger has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. One concern for him is durability, as he has missed at least two games in four of five seasons in the league, with 10 total games missed in his career.

Luckily, the Patriots do have better depth at safety than at cornerback. Marte Mapu is a 2023 3rd round pick who took a step forward in year two, with a 63.4 PFF grade across 487 snaps, after a 50.0 PFF grade across 204 snaps as a rookie. Dell Pettus is a 2024 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 73.9 PFF grade across 341 snaps as a rookie last season. Jaylinn Hawkins, their top reserve last season, had a PFF grade of 60.1 across 613 snaps, but that was the first season above 60 on PFF for him in five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Mapu or Pettus took over the top reserve role this season, as both are higher upside options than Hawkins. Overall, this is a well above average secondary, led by top cornerback Christian Gonzalez and top safety Jabrill Peppers.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Joey Slye was the Patriots’ kicker last season and he was below average, costing the Patriots about 5.42 points below average. In total, he made just 78.8% of his field goals last season. The Patriots let him go this off-season and replaced him with 6th round pick Andres Borregales, who was one of the most effective collegiate kickers throughout his career, surpassing 80% in field goal percentage in all four seasons, including an 18 of 19 final season in which he hit 7 of 8 from 40+ with a long of 56. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Slye right away and he has the upside to be an above average kicker for years to come.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Patriots overpaid many of their free agent additions this off-season, but between their free agent additions, what looks like a strong draft class, their new coaching staff, and quarterback Drake Maye going into his second season in the league, it’s not hard to see how this team could take a big step forward, after finishing just 4-13 last season. Perhaps the biggest thing working in their favor this season is that they have one of the weakest schedules in the league. That could be enough to propel a decent team to sneak into the post-season in the AFC.

Update: The surprise release of Jabrill Peppers and the uncertainty injury situation of cornerback Christian Gonzalez hurts this team’s playoff chances.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC East

New York Jets 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Jets

Quarterback

The Jets thought they were about to become Super Bowl contenders when they traded for Aaron Rodgers two off-seasons ago, hoping to pair the talented veteran quarterback with a defense that was already one of the best in the league. However, that didn’t go according to plan. Rodgers lasted four snaps into his first season in New York, going down for the season with a torn achilles, and a league worst quarterback situation in his absence wasted a dominant defensive performance, as the Jets finished just 7-10, despite ranking 1st in yards per play allowed and 2nd in first down rate allowed.

Rodgers returned in 2024, but the offense still wasn’t as good as expected, finishing 21st in yards per play and 17th in first down rate, while the defense was even more disappointing, still ranking 2nd in yards per play allowed, but plummeting to 22nd in first down rate allowed. That was partially due to the Jets’ defense losing some key players between 2023 and 2024, but the bigger issue is the Jets fired defensive minded head coach Robert Saleh after a disappointing 2-3 start and, without him, the defense totally collapsed, leading to the team finishing 5-12 overall, including 3-9 after firing Saleh.

The Jets went all in on trying to compete over the past two seasons and, after disappointing in both seasons, opted to go into a full rebuild this off-season, going from 7th in average age and 9th in average annual value of their roster in 2024 to 28th in average age and 24th in average annual value of their roster in 2025. Rodgers and several other expensive aging veterans were either released or not retained as free agents and new defensive minded head coach Aaron Glenn will attempt to resurrect what is left of a once dominant defensive unit.

With this year’s quarterback class being a below average one, the Jets opted to address the quarterback position in free agency, signing Justin Fields to a 2-year, 40 million dollar deal with 30 million guaranteed. Fields was the 11th overall pick in the draft just four years ago, has had his moments, and is still only going into his age 26 season, so he was a worthwhile flier for the Jets, but it seems unlikely that this will be the situation that finally gets the most out of him, given all of the other issues the Jets have. He will probably be a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers who, while he wasn’t as good as he had been in the past and while this team disappointed overall, still had a solid 77.8 PFF grade in 2024.

In four seasons in the league, Fields has made 44 starts and has completed 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.95 YPA, 45 touchdowns, and 31 interceptions as a passer, while excelling on the ground with 6.00 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 418 carries. In terms of PFF grade, he has been at 64.2, 70.2, 74.6, and 71.5 over those four seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2025, but he was probably the best option the Jets could have hoped for this off-season. He at least has some upside and, in the likely scenario he doesn’t make good on that upside, the Jets would be better positioned to be selecting high in a much better quarterback draft in 2026.

Fields will be backed up by Tyrod Taylor, who has made 58 starts in his career, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 6.99 YPA, 68 touchdowns, and 29 interceptions, while rushing for 5.60 YPC and 19 touchdowns on 407 carries. However, he is now in his age 36 season and is only a backup at this stage of his career, albeit an above average backup. If Fields struggles as expected, there is a good chance he gets benched for Taylor at some point this season, but Taylor wouldn’t necessarily be an upgrade and he doesn’t nearly have the upside Fields has.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

In addition to released Rodgers’ ahead of a 37.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary, they also got rid of his long-time #1 receiver Davante Adams, ahead of a 36.25 million dollar non-guaranteed salary. Adams was acquired mid-season from the Raiders last year and proceeded to be Rodgers’ best receiver the rest of the way, with a 67/854/7 slash line in just 11 games, averaging a team leading 2.16 yards per route run. The Jets did keep another favorite target of Rodgers’ this off-season, Aaron Lazard, but only after he agreed to slash the remaining non-guaranteed 22 million over 2 years left on his contract down to a 1-year, 2.5 million dollar deal.

Garrett Wilson was the Jets #1 receiver before Adams was added and, even after taking a backseat to Adams for most of last season, he still finished last season with a 101/1104/7 slash line and a 1.69 yards per route run average. Overall, the 2022 1st round pick has exceeded 1000 yards receiving in all three seasons in the league, with an average slash line of 93/1083/5 and a yards per route run average of 1.69, despite inconsistent at best quarterback play. His quarterback play probably won’t be better this season, but he comes with a high floor and, still only in his age 25 season, he also comes with additional upside.

Even though he had to take a big pay cut to stay on the roster, Allen Lazard still figures to have a significant passing game role by default, given the Jets’ other options. Lazard has made a living off of having chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, but, even though he has played with Rodgers for most of his career, he still only has a 1.31 yards per route run average for his career, including 1.26 last season. Now going into his age 30 season, without his favorite quarterback, he figures to be even more inefficient. 

The Jets’ don’t have a better #2 option though, as the rest of the depth chart consists of veteran journeyman free agent addition Josh Reynolds, who has averaged 1.21 yards per route run in eight seasons in the league and now heads into his age 30 season, fellow veteran journeyman free agent addition Tyler Johnson, who has averaged 1.06 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, 4th round rookie Arian Smith, who is unlikely to make a significant positive impact in year one, and 2024 3rd round pick Malachi Coley, who averaged just 0.34 yards per route run as a rookie. Reynolds is probably the favorite for the #3 receiver job by default, in a very thin position group.

Given their issues at wide receiver, the Jets might focus more of their passing game on the tight end position this off-season. However, the Jets top tight end is second round rookie Mason Taylor, who has a big upside, but could be an inefficient target in a big role in year one. His only competition for the top tight end job is 2022 3rd round pick Jeremy Ruckert, who has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, while averaging 0.83 yards per route run, and free agent addition Stone Smartt, who has never played more than 307 snaps in a season in three years in the league, while averaging just 1.17 yards per route run in a situational role. Taylor will likely have to be a big part of this passing game whether he is ready for that or not. Outside of talented #1 receiver Garrett Wilson, this offense severely lacks reliable pass catchers.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Jets also let go of their two tackles from a year ago, Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who had PFF grades of 73.7 and 63.3, but were heading into their age 35 and age 34 seasons respectively. To replace them, the Jets will promote swing tackle Olu Fashanu, a 2024 1st round pick who had a 61.2 PFF grade across 7 starts as a rookie, and they drafted Armand Membou in the first round of this year’s draft to give them a long-term bookend. Both are inexperienced and raw, but both have huge upsides and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were at least a solid duo in 2025. Fashanu figures to start at left tackle, while Membou stays at his collegiate position of right tackle.

The rest of the Jets’ offensive line remains the same as last year, which is a good thing, as this was actually a solid unit, ranking 17th in pass block grade and 12th in run block grade on PFF. Right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker is also a former first round pick, selected 14th overall in 2021. Last year he had a career best 77.7 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 66.8, 71.8, and 71.7 in his first three seasons in the league. The problem is he missed 20 games due to injury over those three seasons, before making 15 starts in 2024. He’s always had a lot of talent and could play at a similar level in 2025 as he did in 2024, but he remains a higher than average injury risk.

Center Joe Tippmann is also a recent high draft pick, selected in the 2nd round in 2023. He had a decent rookie year with a 61.0 PFF grade across 14 starts, before taking a step forward with a 73.4 PFF grade across 17 starts in 2024. He’s technically still a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but he could easily continue playing at an above average level and may have further untapped upside, still only in his age 24 season.

The biggest surprise on this offensive line last season was left guard John Simpson, who had a 77.3 PFF grade in 17 starts, after finishing below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season. It’s possible the former 2020 4th round pick has permanently turned a corner and will remain an above average starter, but he also could easily regress and prove last season to be a fluke. 

Max Mitchell will likely be the swing tackle. The 2022 4th round pick has received PFF grades of 55.5, 49.3, and 65.1 in three seasons in the league, across 14 starts. He did take a step forward in his third season in the league last season and he’s not a bad backup, but he could still struggle if forced into a significant role. On the interior, the Jets have 2020 6th round pick Jake Hanson, who has been mediocre in seven career starts, and free agent addition Josh Myers, a 2021 2nd round pick who has made 56 starts in four seasons in the league, but who has mostly been mediocre, with PFF grades of 58.3, 60.4, 55.8, and 55.7. The Jets have a promising tackle duo of back-to-back first round picks and they have three players coming off great seasons on the interior, though all three of them had career best years and they might not repeat those seasons again in 2025. Still, this looks like an above average offensive line.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Jets’ running game wasn’t bad last season, ranking 16th in the NFL with 4.30 yards per carry, but lead back Breece Hall was a bit of a disappointment. A 2nd round pick in 2022, Hall averaged 4.81 YPC on 303 carries with 1.82 yards per route run across his first two seasons in the league, despite a torn ACL that ended his rookie season and affected him into his second season. Going into 2024, another year removed from the injury, many were expecting a breakout year for Hall, but he only averaged 4.19 YPC on 209 carries with 1.26 yards per route run.

Not only was Hall not as effective as expected, but he ceded more carries to 4th round rookie backup Braelon Allen than expected. Allen only averaged 3.63 yards per carry on his 92 carries, but he had a higher carry success rate than Hall, 51.1% vs. 46.4%, with his biggest issue being that he only had one carry longer than 15 yards (20) all season. I would expect a similar split between the two backs in 2025, but both could benefit from playing next to a quarterback like Justin Fields who can take off and run with the ball himself, which takes some of the defense’s focus off of the running back. Hall also has some bounce back potential from a down year in 2024 and he could have a big year as a pass catcher, given the Jets’ lack of options in the receiving game.

In addition to drafting Allen in last year’s draft, Jets also used a 5th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on another running back in Isaiah Davis. He averaged 5.80 YPC on 30 carries as the #3 running back last season and figures to have the same role in 2025. He probably won’t see much action, but would take over as the backup if Allen got hurt and, if Hall got hurt, Davis could see a bigger role as part of a committee with Allen. This is a solid backfield overall, even if Breece Hall didn’t have the breakout year many expected last season.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The area where the Jets declined the most on defense last season was probably the edge defender position. In 2023, the Jets had a very deep group on the edge, with Jermaine Johnson, John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Huff, Michael Clemons, and Will McDonald finishing with PFF grades of 83.0, 70.4, 79.7, 65.9, and 71.6 across snap counts of 748, 626, 481, 368, and 183 respectively. Going into 2024, the Jets let go of Huff and Franklin-Myers and replaced them with Haason Reddick, while hoping for more out of 2023 1st round pick Will McDonald in his second season in the league. 

However, Reddick ended up holding out for the first seven games of the season in search of a new contract and then struggled upon his return, with a 53.5 PFF grade across 392 snaps. Meanwhile, Jermaine Johnson was limited to 82 snaps in two games by a torn achilles. The result was Will McDonald and Michael Clemons being forced into much larger roles than the year before and struggling, with PFF grades of 756 and 624 respectively across snap counts of 59.4 and 50.6 respectively.

McDonald was an above average pass rusher, with 10.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate, but struggled mightily in run defense. Now going into his third season in the league, McDonald still has the upside to be better in 2025, especially if he can play a smaller role, one more focused on rushing the passer in obvious passing situations. Clemons, meanwhile, is a 2022 4th round pick who flashed potential in his first two seasons in the league, also having a 78.7 PFF grade across 311 snaps as a rookie, in addition to his solid 2023 season. He could have a bounce back year if he is allowed to play a smaller role.

Haason Reddick is gone, but Johnson’s return could make a huge impact if he can return to form, as he not only dominated in 2023, but he is a 2022 1st round pick who also flashed potential with a 71.7 PFF grade across 312 snaps as a rookie. Johnson might not play quite as well in 2025 as he did in 2023, in his first season back from injury, but he should still be an above average player. The Jets also used a 5th round pick on Tyler Baron and have 2024 undrafted free agent Eric Watts, who had a decent 66.1 grade across 231 snaps as a rookie. They will compete for a deep reserve role. This position group is not nearly as deep as it once was and both McDonald and Clemons will probably have to play bigger roles than they should, but the re-addition of Jermaine Johnson should be a big boost.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Jets’ interior defenders also disappointed last season. The personnel was largely the same as 2023, but top interior defender Quinnen Williams fell to a 69.6 PFF grade, after receiving PFF grades of 90.1 and 90.6 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The 3rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Williams was inconsistent early in his career, finishing with PFF grades of 67.4, 81.4, and 64.4 in his first three seasons in the league, but it seemed like he had permanently turned a corner after back-to-back dominant seasons in 2022 and 2023. Williams is still only going into his age 28 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential, but that is not a guarantee, given his history of inconsistency and given that he had his best years under Robert Saleh, who is no longer with the team.

The Jets will need Williams to return to form because the rest of this position group is a significant issue. Javon Kinlaw and Solomon Thomas, who struggled with PFF grades of 53.4 and 45.6 across snap counts of 695 and 458 last season, are no longer with the team, but the players the Jets added to replace them aren’t necessarily upgrades. Derrick Nnadi, signed from the Chiefs, has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons on an average of just 290 snaps per season, including a career worst 35.8 PFF grade across a career low 221 snaps in 2024. 

Byron Cowart, signed from the Bears, has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in his career in which he has played significant snaps, including a 58.9 PFF grade across 335 snaps in 2024. Jay Tufele, signed from the Bengals, has never finished above 60 on PFF in four seasons in the league, while playing an average of just 132 snaps per season, including a career worst 44.4 PFF grade across a career high 242 snaps in 2024. The Jets do have Leonard Taylor, who showed some potential with a 62.7 PFF grade across 261 snaps last season, but that’s a small sample size for a 2024 undrafted free agent and it still wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a solid rotational player. Outside of Quinnen Williams, who is coming off of a down year, this position group has a lot of problems. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Jets’ linebackers were also disappointing in 2024. In 2023, CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams were one of the best linebacker duos in the league, with PFF grades of 82.9 and 81.1 respectively, but in 2024 Mosley was limited to 110 snaps in four games by injury, while Williams fell to a 68.0 PFF grade. Fortunately, the Jets did have Jamien Sherwood step up. A 2021 5th round pick who had only played 357 snaps in his first three seasons prior to last season, Sherwood ended up playing 1,063 snaps as the replacement for Mosley and finished the season with a 73.8 PFF grade. He’s still a one-year wonder, but that season didn’t come out of nowhere, as he had PFF grades of 79.1 and 76.1 in 2022 and 2023 respectively as well, albeit on snap counts of 25 and 193 respectively. He might prove to be unable to repeat last season’s career best year, but he also could remain an above average every down starter.

Williams, meanwhile, is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2023, so he’s no guarantee to bounce back in 2025. Prior to his back-to-back above average seasons, Williams finished below 60 on PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league, after being selected in the 3rd round in 2019. Williams is unlikely to reach his 2023 heights again, but he’s also even more unlikely to regress back to his pre-2023 form. Another season similar to 2024 seems like the most likely outcome for him in 2025.

With Mosley not being retained this off-season, the Jets needed to replenish depth at the linebacker position and attempted to do so by signing Jamin Davis. A 2021 1st round pick, Davis had some decent seasons in Washington early in his career, with PFF grades of 62.9 and 67.6 respectively on snap counts of 833 and 742 respectively in 2022 and 2023 respectively, but he fell to a 51.1 PFF grade across just 107 snaps in 2024, a season he began with Washington and ended with Minnesota, after Washington cut him mid-season. 

Only going into his age 27 season, Davis is not a bad depth option, but the Jets will obviously be hoping he doesn’t have to see significant action in 2025. Aside from Davis, their other depth options are 2023 6th round pick Zaire Barnes, who hasn’t played a defensive snap in two seasons in the league, and 5th round rookie Francisco Mauigoa. Williams and Sherwood are a solid starting duo and Davis isn’t bad depth, but this position group is unlikely to be as good as they were in 2023, when they were one of the best in the NFL.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Cornerback Sauce Gardner also had a disappointing season in 2024, falling from PFF grades of 87.9 and 88.6 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023 respectively to a 70.2 PFF grade in 2024. The 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Gardner has obvious bounce back potential in 2025, still only in his age 25 season, but there is a chance he never quite is the same as he was in 2022 and 2023, without his old head coach Robert Saleh.

While Gardner should be better this season, this cornerback group probably won’t be because they lost their other outside cornerback, DJ Reed, in free agency and he stepped up while Gardner was struggling by his standards to lead all Jets cornerbacks with a 70.7 PFF grade. In his place, the Jets signed veteran Brandon Stephens and used a third round pick on Azareye’h Thomas. Stephens will probably get the first crack at the starting job, but he’s an underwhelming option. He had a 69.2 PFF grade across 1,078 snaps in 2023, but the 2021 3rd round pick has finished below 60 on PFF in his other three seasons in the league, including a 55.8 PFF grade in 2024.

Slot cornerback Michael Carter also had a down year in 2024. After receiving PFF grades of 73.5 and 80.4 across snap counts of 732 and 671 respectively in 2022 and 2023, Carter fell to a 50.7 PFF grade last season and only played 285 snaps in 13 games because he ceded snaps down the stretch to Isaiah Oliver. Carter is still only in his age 26 season, so he could bounce back in 2025, but he could also be another player who won’t be the same without Robert Saleh. He also isn’t guaranteed to get his starting job back, as Oliver remains on the roster as competition. 

Oliver, who also played some safety last season, finished the 2024 season with a 65.1 PFF grade across 576 snaps. That was his fourth season straight above 60 on PFF, but he has only averaged 397 snaps per season over that stretch and he has never had a season in seven seasons in the league in which he had a PFF grade higher than 60 and a snap count higher than 600 in the same season. He might be best as a versatile reserve, rather than a starting slot cornerback, but he could still beat out Carter if Carter can’t bounce back.

Including Oliver, the Jets had five players make starts at safety last season. Aside from Oliver, who is likely to primarily be a cornerback this season, only one other safety, Tony Adams, remains as Ashtyn Davis (71.1 PFF grade across 260 snaps), Jalen Mills (63.4 PFF grade across 457 snaps), and Chuck Clark (50.8 PFF grade across 709 snaps) were not retained this off-season. Adams, who had a 66.4 PFF grade across 764 snaps last season, after a 68.0 PFF grade across 879 snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2023, is likely locked into one of the starting safety jobs in 2025.

At the other safety spot, the Jets will start free agent addition Andre Cisco. Cisco had a down year in 2024, finishing with a 58.8 PFF grade across 979 snaps, but he had PFF grades of 67.9, 67.1, and 68.9 across snap counts of 247, 992, and 848 over the first three seasons of his career prior to last season and the 2021 3rd round pick is still only going into his age 25 season, so he has obvious bounce back potential. He and Adams will likely be a decent, but unspectacular safety duo.

Aside from the hybrid Oliver, the Jets depth options at safety are limited. The Jets used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Malachi Moore, but he would almost definitely struggle if forced into a starting role as a rookie by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Jaylin Simpson, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2024, but didn’t play a snap as a rookie and also would likely struggle if forced into a starting role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. The Jets are likely to get a bounce back season from #1 cornerback Sauce Gardner, but they lost DJ Reed this off-season and, aside from Gardner, their secondary is underwhelming overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Jets cycled through five different kickers who attempted kicks for them in 2024. Only one of those kickers remains on the roster, Anders Carlson, and he is likely the favorite for the job, with his top competition being undrafted rookie Caden Davis. Carlson was a 6th round pick by the Packers in 2023, but only lasted one season there because he was the second worst kicker in the league statistically, costing the Packers 11.92 points below average. Last season, Carlson played for both the 49ers and Jets and was better, only 0.63 points below average, and he could continue getting better going forward, but he is still an underwhelming primary option.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Jets are starting a rebuild, after unsuccessfully going all in during the brief Aaron Rodgers era. The result is a young roster with some very underwhelming position groups and noticeable needs. The Jets might not quite be one of the worst teams in the league this season and they have a weak schedule, but they seem very unlikely to contend for a playoff spot.

Update: The Jets upgraded their kicker position in a big way with the addition of Nick Folk, but the loss of Alijah Vera-Tucker for the season is a big blow to this team’s offense.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC East

Washington Commanders 2025 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Quarterback

The Commanders were the NFL’s surprise team last season, going all the way from a 4-13 season in 2023 to a 12-5 season in 2024, as well as an NFC Championship appearance. The biggest reason for their improvement was quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was selected #2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and went on to have arguably the best rookie season ever by a quarterback, completing 69.0% of his passes for an average of 7.43 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while rushing for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns on 148 carries (6.02 YPC). Going into this off-season the Commanders had a lot of cap space to spend to fill out the rest of their roster, with their quarterback on a cheap rookie deal that is the best value of any active contract in the NFL right now.

Given how well their season went last season and that they spent money to get better this off-season, many are expecting the Commanders to be even better this season, but there are reasons why that might not happen. For one, the Commanders were not as good as their record in the regular season last year, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31 respectively, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Even in the Commanders’ two playoff wins, they lost the first down rate and yards per play battle both times. Including their blowout loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship game, the Commanders were actually -1.71 in yards per play differential and -10.07% in first down rate differential in the post-season.

The Commanders also had one of the weakest schedules in the league last season, while their schedule this season is expected to be one of the toughest in the league. On top of that, for all of the money the Commanders spent this off-season, it’s unclear how much better they actually are. They also might not get quite as good of a season out of Jayden Daniels, as quarterbacks who have a great rookie season don’t always repeat that the following season, even if they ultimately end up being a great quarterback long-term. 

Of the other four rookie quarterbacks who posted a 100+ quarterback rating, only one did that again the next season and, on average, those four quarterbacks saw their QB rating fall by 12.8 points the following season. We most recently saw this with CJ Stroud, who had a phenomenal rookie year and then saw his QB rating fall by 13.8 points in his second season in the league. If we expand out to the eleven quarterbacks with a 90+ quarterback rating as a rookie, the results are a little better, but more than half of them saw their quarterback rating fall in their second season, with the average QB rating of the bunch being 4.7 points lower in their second season than their first season and only two of eleven quarterbacks exceeding a 100 QB rating. Daniels should still be very good in 2025, but he might not be quite as good.

Daniels is actually backed up by one of those other eleven quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota, whose career got off to a good start with backup 90+ QB ratings in his first two seasons in the league, but he never panned out as a long-term starter and has been a backup for four of the past five seasons. In total, Mariota has completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.49 YPA, 97 touchdowns, and 55 interceptions, while rushing for 5.75 YPC and 18 touchdowns on 375 carries in 74 career starts in 10 seasons in the league. Now in his age 32 season, Mariota is who he is at this stage of his career, but, as far as backups go, he is one of the better ones in the league. He stepped in well last season when needed, completing 34 of 44 for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns, and could do the same again in 2025 for a short period of time. This is one of the best quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

One of the Commanders’ biggest additions this off-season was 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel. The Commanders only gave up a 5th round pick for him, but they took on his full 17.5 million dollar salary for 2025. The Commanders’ second leading wide receiver had just 506 receiving yards last season and Deebo Samuel has a career 2.16 yards per route run average, so the Commanders had a need and Samuel has the upside. However, Samuel saw that yards per route run average fall to a career low 1.60 in 2024, which is actually less than the 1.69 yards per route run that de facto #2 receiver Olamide Zaccheus averaged last season, albeit in a part-time role.

It’s possible Samuel could bounce back in 2025, still only in his age 29 season, but he’s picked up a lot of injuries in his career, missing time in all six seasons in the league, while missing 19 games total over that stretch, so it’s possible he is starting to decline faster than most receivers. There is a good chance he is still a boost to this offense, but he might not be quite as good as expected and they may miss the departed Olamide Zaccheus more than expected.

Terry McLaurin remains as the #1 receiver. He finished with a 82/1096/13 slash line and 1.98 yards per route run last season, his fifth straight 1000+ season and his sixth season over 900 in as many seasons in the league. He’s never been an elite wide receiver, maxing out with 1,191 receiving yards in 2022, but he has a solid 1.87 yards per route run average in his career. Unfortunately, he is now going into his age 30 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he started declining, but he will probably remain an above average wide receiver even if he isn’t quite as good as he usually is.

Noah Brown will likely be the #3 receiver. He only had a 35/453/1 slash line last season, but he was limited to 11 games due to injury and had an impressive 1.63 yards per route run average. Brown has never exceeded 600 receiving yards in a season in his career, but he has averaged 1.47 yards per route run over the past seven seasons, including 1.94 yards per route run in 2023, so he has been a pretty efficient pass catcher even if he’s never had the playing time or target share to put up big overall numbers. His numbers may be limited again as the #3 receiver, but he’s not a bad #3 option.

For depth options, the Commanders have 2024 3rd round pick Luke McCaffrey, who struggled with a 0.68 yards per route run average as a rookie, but could take a step forward in 2025. The Commanders also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Jaylin Lane, though it’s unlikely he is NFL ready enough to contribute in a positive way in his first season in the league. The Commanders also brought Michael Gallup out of retirement and, while he is still only in his age 29 season and has a decent 1.38 yards per route run average in his career, that fell to 1.04 in his final two seasons prior to being out of the league in 2024 and it’s hard to imagine him being significantly better after a year off. These aren’t bad depth options, but the Commanders will obviously be hoping they don’t have significant injuries to one or multiple of their top-3 wide receivers.

The Commanders also got a decent year out of tight end Zach Ertz, who turned back the clock to finish with a 66/654/7 slash line and 1.30 yards per route run, both his best since 2021, as he averaged 297 yards per season and 1.06 yards per route run across 2022-2023. Ertz is now heading into his age 35 season and could easily go back to struggling in 2025, though there is at least a chance that doesn’t happen and he has another decent season, despite his age.

If Ertz declines, perhaps the Commanders will get more out of Ben Sinnott, a 2024 2nd round pick who was overmatched with a 0.26 yards per route run average as a rookie, but who could take at least somewhat of a step forward in his second season in the league, even if he still is underwhelming. The Commanders also have John Bates, a blocking specialist who has averaged 0.88 yards per route run in his career, but is at least useful as a blocker. This receiving corps replaces Olamide Zaccheus with Deebo Samuel, but that isn’t as much of an upgrade as it seems and both Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz are on the wrong side of 30 and could be worse in 2025 than they were in 2024 as a result. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Another big addition the Commanders made this off-season was left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who they acquired in a trade with the Texans. Tunsil cost the Commanders a package of picks that included a 3rd rounder this year and a 2nd rounder next year and they will take on the remaining 42.7 million dollars he is owed for the next two seasons. Tunsil has been a consistently above average left tackle in recent years, finishing above 70 on PFF in six healthy straight seasons, maxing out with a 80.0 PFF grade in 2022. Durability has been a concern for him though, as he’s missed time in seven of nine seasons in the league, with 23 games missed total. He’s also heading into his age 31 season and could start to decline this season.

Even with the age and injury concerns though, Tunsil should still be an upgrade at left tackle for the Commanders, after Brandon Coleman was their primary starter there last season, receiving a 63.9 PFF grade across 787 snaps. Coleman was only a 3rd round rookie and could get better going forward, but if he is going to be a primary starter somewhere this season it is going to be at right tackle, rather than left. Even starting at right tackle might not be in the cards for Coleman, as the Commanders still have incumbent right tackle Andrew Wylie and additionally used their first round pick on an offensive tackle in Josh Conerly.

Coleman’s best path to a starting job would be if Conerly were to move to guard as a rookie. At guard, he would compete with incumbent Nick Allegretti on the left side. Allegretti wasn’t bad last season with a 61.7 PFF grade, but there is definitely room to upgrade. A 2019 7th round pick, Allegretti has only made 30 starts in six seasons in the league and probably doesn’t have the upside to be any better than he was last season. Wylie could also be a candidate at guard, but he finished at 59.3 in PFF grade last season, after finishing in the 60s in five of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so the Commanders have better options than him across the offensive line and he is likely to just be a versatile reserve this season.

Right guard Sam Cosmi is locked into a starting role. He was arguably their best offensive lineman last season with a 68.8 PFF grade and that was actually a down year for him, as the 2021 2nd round pick started his career with PFF grades of 74.9, 71.6, and 80.6, before his career worst 2024 season. Cosmi is still only going into his age 26 season, so he would have bounce back potential under normal circumstances, but he tore his ACL in the second round of the playoffs of last season and, as a result, could miss the start of the season and/or not be at his best when he returns.

Center Tyler Biadasz is also locked into his job. A 2020 4th round pick, Biadasz has made 64 starts over the past four seasons and has consistently received decent grades from PFF, finishing at 64.8, 61.7, 68.6, and 69.0 respectively over those four seasons. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. He will likely be backed up by free agent addition Nate Herbig, who missed all of last season with injury, but who had previously received PFF grades of 71.2, 68.7, 58.0, and 67.6 from 2020-2023, when he made 30 starts as a spot starter. He’s primarily been a guard in his career, but can also play center. With Laremy Tunsil and Josh Conerly being added, this is a much improved offensive line and it is a deep offensive line, with two players who started last season now in reserve roles, along with free agent addition Nate Herbig, who is also an above average reserve.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Things stay the same for the Commanders in the backfield this season. Brian Robinson will remain their lead back, after leading the team in carries in each of his first three seasons in the league since being selected in the 3rd round in 2022. He’s an unspectacular lead back, but he’s not a bad option either, rushing for 2,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 570 carries (4.09 YPC) in his career, with 2.89 yards per carry after contact, 17.2% missed tackle rate, and a 49.8% carry success rate. Last season was mostly in line with those career numbers, as he had 799 yards and 8 touchdowns on 187 carries (4.27 YPC) in his career, with 3.07 yards per carry after contact, 15.5% missed tackle rate, and a 48.7% carry success rate. I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Robinson is a solid pass catcher too, with a career 1.20 yards per route run average, but he only had a 20/159/0 slash line last season and won’t play a big passing game role again this season because the Commanders have a great passing down specialist behind him on the depth chart in Austin Ekeler, who has been one of the best receiving backs of his era, averaging 1.83 yards per route run in his career and 1.69 yards per route run last season. Ekeler was also a great lead back in his prime, peaking with a combined 410 carries for 1,826 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2021-2022, but he’s now going into his age 30 season, so his days of being a lead back are behind him at this point. He still averaged 4.77 yards per carry last season in a change of pace role though. He could decline further in 2025, given his age, but having a reduced role should help him age better long-term. 

The Commanders also have good depth at the running back position. Chris Rodriguez, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged 4.94 YPC on 35 carries last season and has a 4.88 YPC average on 86 carries in two seasons in the league, while Jeremy McNichols, a veteran journeyman also had an impressive 4.75 YPC average on 55 carries last season, though his career average is only 4.31, he has just 145 carries in eight seasons in the league, primarily playing special teams, and he’s now heading into his age 30 season, so Rodriguez is definitely the better of the two options going forward. The Commanders also used a 7th round pick on Jacory Croskey-Merritt to give themselves additional depth, though he could have a hard time cracking a deep running back group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

While the Commanders’ offense should at least be somewhat better this season, due to the additions of Deebo Samuel and Laremy Tunsil, their defense was the bigger problem last season, ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed and it’s unlikely they are significantly better this season. They did make a big move to sign Javon Kinlaw in free agency, giving him a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal, but that is likely a big overpay.

Kinlaw was a first round pick by the 49ers in 2020 and has broken out as a solid interior pass rusher over the past two seasons, combining for 8 sacks, 7 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate, while playing all 34 games, after struggling through injuries for the first three seasons of his career (26 total games missed) but he has continued to struggle against the run in those two seasons, finishing with run defense grades of 31.3 and 50.8 respectively on PFF. As a result, he has finished below 60 on PFF in both seasons at 49.6 and 53.4, making it five straight seasons below 60 to begin his career. Now in his age 28 season, Kinlaw likely is who he is at this stage of his career. He will likely remain an above average pass rusher in 2025, but his run defense will probably prevent him from being worth what the Commanders paid him.

Kinlaw will rotate heavily with Daron Payne and Jer’Zhan Newton, who led this position group with 741 snaps and 515 snaps played respectively last season. Both struggled, with PFF grades of 53.7 and 51.6 respectively, but both could be better in 2025, as Payne finished with PFF grades in the 60s in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season and is still only in his age 28 season, while Newton is a 2024 2nd round pick who could take a step forward in his second season in the league in 2025.

The Commanders also added Eddie Goldman to compete for a deep reserve role. Goldman was a consistently above average starter in his prime with the Bears, finishing above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league from 2015-2019, including four seasons above 70, and a career best 87.3 PFF grade in 2018, but he sat out the 2020 season, struggled mightily upon his return in 2021, with a 39.8 PFF grade across 336 snaps, then sat out another two seasons before struggling again in 2024, when he had a 49.3 PFF grade across 330 snaps. 

Now in his age 31 season, Goldman’s best days are long behind him and he is likely to continue struggling in 2025, even in a deep reserve role. His primary competition for that role is likely Sheldon Day, who had a 58.2 PFF grade across 272 snaps last season and has finished with PFF grades in the 50s or 60s in all nine seasons in the league, on an average of 202 snaps per season. He could have a similar season again in 2025 as a deep reserve, though it’s worth noting he is now in his age 31 season and could decline to the point where he is a significant liability. This is an underwhelming overall position group, though they could be better than last season by default if Daron Payne bounces back and Jer’Zhan Newton takes a step forward in his second season in the league.

Grade: C+

Edge Defenders

The Commanders’ edge defender group, on the other hand, is likely to be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024. Dante Fowler, their team leader in sacks with 10.5, wasn’t retained this off-season and, though he struggled against the run and finished with just a 62.1 PFF grade across 563 snaps overall, he will still be missed, especially since his replacements are Deatrich Wise and Jacob Martin. Wise was a solid player in his prime, exceeding 60 on PFF in four straight seasons from 2019-2022, but he has fallen to PFF grades of 54.3 and 59.7 over the past two seasons and now heads into his age 31 season, so he is likely to continue struggling. 

Jacob Martin, meanwhile, is a career journeyman who has been decent in his career, but who has only averaged 314 snaps played per season and now is also on the wrong side of 30, going into his age 30 season. Martin figures to be a reserve, while Wise has a good chance to be a de facto starter, given the Commanders’ other options. Dorance Armstrong was the Commanders’ best overall edge defender last season, finishing with a 68.9 PFF grade across 635 snaps, while totaling 5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate as a pass rusher, after finishing with a 70.1 PFF grade across 446 snaps, while totaling 7.5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 28 season and coming off of four straight seasons above 60 on PFF, Armstrong should continue being a solid starter in 2025, but he’s pretty underwhelming as far as top edge defenders go.

The Commanders’ other option is Clelin Ferrell, but he is an underwhelming option. Ferrell was the 4th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but has not nearly lived up to the billing, finishing above 60 on PFF in two of six seasons, including a 58.5 PFF grade across 369 snaps last season, while maxing out at a 76.1 PFF grade in 2020 and averaging just 450 snaps per season. He’s a decent rotational player at his best, but nothing more. He rounds out a very underwhelming edge defender rotation.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Commanders’ linebackers were the strength of their defense last season, led by every down linebacker Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu. Wagner was one of the best linebackers in the entire league, finishing 2nd among linebackers on PFF with a 89.9 PFF grade across 1,071 snaps. That was nothing new for Wagner, who now has eight seasons above 80 in thirteen seasons in the league, with eleven seasons above 70 and no seasons below 69 in what is likely to be a Hall of Fame career when all is said and done. The problem is Wagner is now heading into his age 35 season and, while he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he declined in a significant way this season, which would hurt this defense significantly.

Fortunately, Frankie Luvu could be better in 2025 than 2024. He wasn’t bad last season, with a 67.5 PFF grade across 1,058 snaps, but that was a drop off from his first two seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023, when he had PFF grades of 74.8 and 80.0 respectively across snap counts of 941 and 989 respectively. Still on the right side of 30 in his age 29 season, Luvu has obvious bounce back potential in 2025, which would be a boost for this defense, even if he doesn’t quite match his career best 2023 campaign.

Depth is a big issue for the Commanders at linebacker though. Their options include Nick Bellore, a career special teamer who has played just 866 total defensive snaps in 14 seasons in the league, and who now enters his age 36 season, Jordan Magee, a 2024 5th round pick who only played 16 snaps as a rookie, Dominique Hampton, also a 2024 5th round pick, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and 6th round rookie Kain Medrano. The Commanders will have to hope neither of their starters misses significant time with injury, given their options behind them on the depth chart, which hurts their overall grade at this position at least somewhat.

Grade: A-

Secondary

The Commanders should get better play out of their cornerbacks this season. Last season, their top-3 cornerbacks were Mike Sainristil (978 snaps), Benjamin St-Juste (836 snaps), and 

Noah Igbinoghene (819 snaps) and they finished with PFF grades of 66.1, 47.4, and 49.3 respectively. This season, they should get more out of Marshon Lattimore, who was acquired at the trade deadline last year, but only played two regular season games due to injury, and they added veteran Jonathan Jones in free agency.

Lattimore and Jones should be upgrades over St-Juste and Igbinoghene, but perhaps largely by default. Lattimore comes with upside, finishing above 70 on PFF in four of eight seasons in the league, including a 70.0 PFF grade last season, but he’s been inconsistent in his career and he’s been very injury prone in recent years, missing 25 games over the past three seasons combined. Lattimore is still relatively young in his age 29 season and he has a high upside, but he comes with injury and consistency concerns. 

Jones, meanwhile, has also had some success in his career, finishing above 70 on PFF three times in nine seasons in the league, but he’s also been injury prone of late, missing 15 games in the past four seasons, and he’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of a 2024 season in which he finished with just a 60.7 PFF grade across 712 snaps, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. Sainristil remains as a starter. Not only was he their only capable cornerback last season, but he was only a second round rookie and could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Overall, this looks like a solid trio of cornerbacks, especially when compared to last season, but at least two of them have significant injury histories and one is on the wrong side of 30. 

Depth could prove to be important, so the Commanders used a second round pick on Trey Amos. Amos probably won’t begin the season as a starter, but could easily find himself with a significant role at some point, either due to injury ahead of him on the depth chart or due to Jones struggling. Igbinoghene also remains as a reserve option, but he should remain buried on the depth chart if possible. He was a first round pick by the Dolphins in 2020, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league and only got on the field for a total of 627 snaps in his first four seasons in the league before being forced into a significant role in a weak position group last season.

Things are not as good at safety, probably even worse than they were a year ago. Jeremy Chinn was a solid starter with a 69.0 PFF grade across 1,020 snaps, but he wasn’t brought back this off-season. Instead, the Commanders replaced him with Will Harris, whose 61.5 PFF grade last season was simultaneously significantly worse than Chinn, but also the second best season-long grade of his 6-year career. Now in his age 30 season, he’s likely to regress and be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary.

Quan Martin remains as the other starter, but he was mediocre with a 59.2 PFF grade across 942 snaps last season. He is a 2023 2nd round pick and he did flash potential as a rookie with a 65.4 PFF grade across 365 snaps, but he couldn’t translate that to a larger role. He still may have further untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to develop into a consistently solid starter. He too could be a liability in the Commanders’ secondary this season. 

The Commanders do have some reserve options at safety, but it’s unclear if any of them would be better than the starters. Percy Butler was the primary reserve last season with 399 snaps, but he finished with a 43.9 PFF grade. He did have a 62.7 PFF grade across 835 snaps (13 starts) in 2023, but the 2022 4th round pick has finished below 50 in his other two seasons in the league. Darrick Forest has finished with PFF grades in the 60s in all four seasons in the league since being selected in the 5th round in 2021, including a snap count of 849 in 2022, but that snap count fell to 328 in 2023 and just 74 in 2024. Jeremy Reeves has had his moments, but ultimately has played just 725 snaps in seven seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2018. The Commanders’ cornerback group should be significantly better this season, even if largely by default, but their safety room looks likely to be even worse, with both projected starters likely to be liabilities.

Grade: B-

Kicker

Austin Seibert was the Commanders kicker to start last season and he was having a solid year with 2.16 points above average through nine games, but he got hurt and missed the rest of the season. The Commanders then cycled through Greg Joseph (-2.92 points below average) and Cade York (-7.43 points below average) before finding Zane Gonzalez, who was decent down the stretch and through their playoff run, accumulating 0.77 points above average. 

This season, the Commanders brought none of those kickers back, opting for veteran free agent addition Matt Gay. Gay had a great 3-year stretch from 2020-2022 where he accumulated 20.65 points above average, but he fell to 3.67 points below average in 2023 and 0.68 points below average in 2024 and now heads into his age 31 season. He’s not totally over the hill for a kicker and could bounce back somewhat in 2025, but, now two years removed from his last above average season, it seems pretty unlikely he will find his old form again in 2025.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Commanders won 12 games and made the NFC Championship game last season, but they are starting from a lower base point than that suggests, ranking 7th in first down rate differential at +2.08% and 11th in yards per play differential at +0.31, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss records. That was despite a relatively easy schedule, a schedule that gets a lot harder in 2024. Even in the post-season, the Commanders lost the first down rate and yards per play battle in all three games, finishing the post-season with a -1.71 yards per play differential and a -10.07% first down rate differential.

The Commanders’ offense should be even better this season unless Jayden Daniels has a significant sophomore slump, as the Commanders added wide receiver Deebo Samuel and left tackle Laremy Tunsil this off-season to a unit that ranked 10th in yards per play and 8th first down rate. However, their defense looks likely to remain one of the worst in the league, after ranking 26th in yards per play allowed and 29th in first down rate allowed. The Commanders should still be in the mix for a playoff spot and they have an easier schedule than the Eagles, who are unlikely to be as good as they were a year ago, but I wouldn’t consider the Commanders an elite team.

Prediction: 10-7, 2nd in NFC East