Indianapolis Colts 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 24, 2025July 29, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Quarterbacks

The Colts went 8-9 in 2024 but could have been a lot better than that if they had competent quarterback play, as they had an above average roster overall but had the second worst QB rating in the league at 75.8. The other three teams who ranked in the bottom-4 in team QB rating finished with the three worst records in the league, but the Colts managed to be in contention for a playoff spot late into the season because of the strength of the rest of this roster. It’s not a stretch to say that the Colts entered this off-season a quarterback away from being at least a playoff team in the AFC.

The Colts could have gone after Sam Darnold, by far the top available quarterback in free agency this off-season, but doing so would have meant giving up on Anthony Richardson, who they selected 4th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft just two years ago. There is definitely an argument to be made for the Colts doing that, as Richardson was always a very risky pick that high in the draft and has shown nothing in two years in the league to suggest he was worth that pick.

Richardson missed most of his rookie season with injury and was not particularly good when on the field in 4 starts. He was impressive on the ground with 5.44 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries, but he completed just 59.5% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while finishing the season with a 52.2 PFF grade. In 2024, he was arguably worse as a passer, completing 47.7% of his passes for an average of 6.87 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while averaging 5.80 YPC and rushing for 6 touchdowns on 86 carries in 11 starts, missing more time due to injury and then briefly getting benched upon his return. Richardson still has upside, but the rest of the Colts’ roster is ready to contend right now and it seems unlikely that Richardson is ready to quarterback a contending team in 2025.

The Colts did add a quarterback this off-season, but it was ex-Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who is a very underwhelming alternative. The Colts did still give him 14 million on a one-year deal, most of which is guaranteed, so there is a good chance he starts games for them this season unless Richardson improves significantly, but the addition of Jones is probably more about trying to give Richardson a wake-up call and some competition rather than trying to replace him.

In six seasons in the league, Jones has made 69 starts, but has just a 84.3 QB rating, worst among quarterbacks with at least 1,200 pass attempts over that time period. He is a solid runner, averaging 5.46 YPC with 15 touchdowns on 399 carries in his career, and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Richardson, but he also might not be an upgrade over Joe Flacco, who isn’t mobile, but had a 90.5 QB rating across 248 pass attempts last season. It’s unlikely the Colts will even get average quarterback play out of either of their quarterback options, so this team is unlikely to make the playoffs, even with a roster that looks likely to be above average overall.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

If there is one area the Colts could be worse this season than last season, it is their offensive line, which lost a pair of week one starters from last season in right guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly. Fries and Kelly had PFF grades of 86.9 and 67.0 respectively last season, but they were limited to 5 starts and 10 starts respectively by injuries and the Colts had replacements that played pretty well in their absence, so those losses might not be as big of a deal as they seem.

Kelly will be replaced by Tanor Bortolini, a 2024 4th round pick who played 351 snaps as a rookie, mostly at center, where he started 5 games. He had a decent 65.1 PFF grade and, while he is a projection to a season-long role, he looks like he could be at least a capable starter long-term. Fries, meanwhile, will be replaced by Matt Goncalves, a 2024 3rd round pick who mostly saw action at tackle last season, but who had a solid 65.9 PFF grade across 566 snaps. He’s changing positions and, like Bortolini, he is a projection to a season-long role, but he also could at least be a capable starter.

The Colts are also hoping to get healthier years out of tackles Braden Smith and Bernhard Raimann, who were limited to 12 games and 14 games respectively last season. Smith also fell to a career worst 65.7 PFF grade, after finishing above 70 in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to last season, including three seasons over 80, with his most recent being a career best 83.3 in 2023. Smith is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, so he has a good chance to bounce back at least somewhat and, while durability has been a concern for him in recent years, as he’s missed at least five games in three of the past four seasons, it’s definitely possible he plays more games than he did last year as well.

Raimann is coming off of a career best year, with a 85.1 PFF grade, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick has been above average since his rookie year and has gotten better in every season in the league, with PFF grades of 73.3 and 82.7 in his first two seasons in the league. Raimann was an old rookie and is already in his age 28 season, but he should remain a high level starter in 2025, even if he might not repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

Left guard Quenton Nelson also played at a high level in 2024, finishing with a 81.3 PFF grade, while making all 17 starts. It wasn’t anything new for Nelson, as he has finished above 80 on PFF in three of seven seasons in the league, but he also has been inconsistent in his career, especially in recent years, with PFF grades of 69.1, 68.4, and 70.8 in 2021, 2022, and 2023, prior to last season’s dominant campaign. Nelson is still in his prime in his age 29 season, but his history of inconsistency means he could regress significantly from a year ago, though that’s not a guarantee.

The big concern on this offensive line is depth. The Colts had good depth a year ago, with Bortolini and Goncalves ready to slide into starting roles when called upon, but they will begin the season in the starting lineup this season and, without them as reserves, their reserve options are now questionable. Dalton Tucker made seven starts at right guard last season when Will Fries was out, but he struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade. He’s a 2024 undrafted free agent who would likely continue to struggle in 2025 if forced back into a starting role, but he’s probably their top reserve option at guard.

Danny Pinter, a 2020 5th round pick, is their top reserve at center and he’s been decent when called upon in five seasons in the league since going in the 5th round in 2020, but he’s only made nine starts in those five seasons, so he’s pretty unproven. At tackle, their top reserve options are likely Blake Freeland, who had a 44.2 PFF grade across 701 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2023, before playing just 23 mediocre snaps last season, and 4th round rookie Jalen Travis. It’s highly unlikely all five of the Colts’ offensive line starters stay healthy all season in 2025, so at some point their depth will be tested, which is a big concern. This is an above average starting five, but their lack of depth hurts their overall grade upfront.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Colts’ passing game struggled last season due to their quarterback play, but they got great play from their wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been their #1 receiver for four seasons, leading the team in targets in all of those seasons, while averaging a 91/992/4 slash line per season and 1.77 yards per route run. Last year was actually a down year for him, as he had a 69/808/3 slash line and 1.68 yards per route run. There were a few reasons for that. Obviously, poor quarterback play had something to do with it. Pittman also played most of the season through a back injury that only cost him one game but that likely limited his effectiveness.

On top of that, Pittman had a smaller target share than he was used to (111 targets, as opposed to 142 on average in his previous three seasons), as a result of other wide receivers emerging around him. That looks likely to continue being the case in 2025. Josh Downs, a 2023 2nd round pick, seems like he has emerged as the long-term #1 wide receiver. He had fewer targets than Pittman in 2024 (107), but only because he missed three games with injury. He was the more efficient of the two receivers, averaging a team leading 2.20 yards per route run, which led to a 72/803/5 slash line, after a 1.60 yards per route run average and a 68/771/2 slash line as a rookie. Now going into his third season in the league and his age 24 season, Downs looks likely to at least be an above average wide receiver for years to come and has the upside to get even better.

Another recent second round pick, Alec Pierce, had a mini breakout season in 2024, with a 1.82 yards per route run average, after averaging 1.02 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league combined. Pierce did that despite only getting 69 targets, which he took for a 37/824/7 slash line. Pierce is a bit of a one-dimensional deep threat, but he will continue having a role in this offense going forward, especially if the gunslinging Anthony Richardson winds up as the quarterback. The Colts also have 2024 2nd round pick Adonai Mitchell waiting in the wings as the #4 receiver. He had a decent rookie season, with 1.51 yards per route run and he still has further upside, so he is a great option as far as #4 receivers go.

The big weakness of this receiving corps last season was the tight end position, as no tight end had more than 31 targets, 14 catches, 182 yards, or 1.00 yards per route run. The Colts upgraded the tight end position in a big way though, using the 14th overall pick on Tyler Warren. Warren was one of the top prospects in the draft overall, but fell to the Colts because tight ends have a relatively low position value and because this draft class had another elite tight end prospect in Colston Loveland. He should be a big boost for this receiving corps right away.

Kylen Granson was the Colts’ de facto #1 receiving tight end last season with a 14/182/0 slash line and he wasn’t retained this off-season, but he won’t be needed with Warren being added and the Colts do still have Mo Alie-Cox and Drew Ogletree, who, while they aren’t good receivers, are good blockers and will still be useful in that role behind Warren. Alie-Cox has an average of 1.24 yards per route run for his career, but it has fallen to 0.86 over the past three seasons leading to PFF grades of 48.2, 60.8, 64.5 and now he is heading into his age 32 season.

Meanwhile, Ogletree, a 6th round pick in 2022, has only averaged 1.05 yards per route run in his career, but has PFF grades of 66.2 and 69.1 over the past two seasons due primarily to his run blocking. At this stage of his career, he is probably the better option. Both will probably see roles, but Ogletree makes more sense as the #2 behind Warren. The addition of Warren as a big upgrade at the primary receiving tight end position in a receiving corps that already had a lot of talent at the wide receiver position makes this an impressive receiving corps overall.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Colts finished last season 8th in yards per carry, 7th in carries, and 8th in rushing yards last season. A lot of that had to do with Anthony Richardson, who not only had a 5.80 YPC on 86 carries, but additionally his presence in the backfield made life much easier for running backs because opposing defenses had to worry about the quarterback taking off and running himself. In fact, in 10 games in which Richardson played the majority of the team’s quarterback snaps, the Colts averaged 4.96 YPC across 308 carries per game, as opposed to 4.28 YPC across 188 carries per game in their other 7 games.

Lead back Jonathan Taylor averaged 4.72 YPC on 303 carries, ranking 4th in the league with 1,431 rushing yards as a result. For Taylor, it was his third 1000+ yard season in five seasons in the league, but his first since he rushed for 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on 232 carries (5.04 YPC) as a rookie in 2020 and 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on 332 carries (5.45 YPC) in his second season in the league in 2021. In his third and fourth seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, he combined for just 1,602 yards and 11 touchdowns on 361 carries (4.44 YPC), while missing 13 total games due to injury.

Taylor seemed to bounce back in 2024, but he benefited significantly from playing alongside Richardson in the backfield, and with a great offensive line in front of him (4th in PFF run blocking grade). His 2.68 yards per carry after contact was the worst of his career, after averaging 3.33 yards per carry after contact across his first four seasons in the league combined, while his 11.9% missed tackle rate was also a career low, after an average of 19.2% in his first four seasons in the league combined. Taylor also still missed another three games with injury, so he didn’t exactly shed his injury prone label last season. He still has a good chance to be a highly productive lead back in this offense, but he’s not as good as his overall numbers suggested last season, and he’ll probably miss more time due to injury this season.

Depth was an issue for the Colts at running back last season, as top reserve Trey Sermon only averaged 2.84 yards per carry on 56 carries. He wasn’t retained this off-season and was replaced by Khalil Herbert, who will probably be an upgrade, but maybe by default. Herbert averaged 4.87 yards per carry, including 3.20 yards per carry after contact, in his first three seasons in the league with the Bears, who selected him in the 6th round in 2021, but he fell out of the Bears running back rotation last season and was traded to the Bengals mid-season, where he still had trouble getting on the field, finishing last season with just 36 carries and just a 3.61 yards per carry average. He has bounce back potential in 2025 and is unlikely to have to play a big role other than in games when Taylor is absent, so he’s not a bad fit for his role.

The Colts also have Tyler Goodson as their third string running back for the second straight year. The 2022 undrafted free agent has averaged 5.33 yards per carry on 45 carries in his career. He’s unlikely to have a big role even if Jonathan Taylor misses significant time with injury. Taylor will likely remain the primary back on passing downs as well, but he only has a career 0.91 yards per route run average, including 0.50 last season, when he finished the season with just a 18/136/1 slash line. Herbert, however, has an even worse 0.68 yards per route run in his career, so he’s not a better option, while Goodson has only averaged 0.91 yards per route run in limited action. The Colts’ backfield isn’t as good as their production looked last season, but this isn’t a bad backfield either and they have a good chance to be highly productive again.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The Colts’ defense was the strength of this team last season, as they ranked 20th in yards per play allowed and 8th in first down rate allowed. They made some changes this off-season, but they weren’t necessarily bad ones and all of their best players from a year ago remain, as all seven players who played more than 500 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 70 remain on the team. The strength of this defense was the interior defender position, where DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart ranked first and second on the team in PFF grade among players with more than 500 snaps, finishing at 81.9 and 76.0 respectively on snap counts of 579 and 690.

Both are accomplished players, as DeForest Buckner has finished above 70 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league, including five seasons over 80, while Stewart has finished above 60 in each of the past six seasons, including three seasons over 70 in the past four seasons. The problem is they are going into their age 31 and age 32 seasons and could start to decline this season. They could remain at least solid starters even if they do decline, particularly Buckner, who is one year younger and starting from a higher base point, but if both decline noticeably, it will hurt this defense significantly.

The other problem is the Colts don’t have good depth behind them. This was the case last season as well, when Raekwon Davis (349 snaps), Taven Bryan (340 snaps), and Adetomiwa Adebawore (137 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 37.1, 58.2, and 57.9 respectively as the top reserves. Davis and Bryan are gone, replaced by free agent additions Neville Gallimore and Eric Johnson, as well as 6th round rookie Tim Smith, none of whom are an upgrade.

Gallimore will probably be their top reserve. He was a 3rd round pick in 2020, but he has averaged just 307 snaps per season in his career, while finishing below 60 on PFF in all five seasons. Johnson is returning to the Colts, who selected him in the 5th round in 2022 originally, but he has played just 570 snaps in three seasons in the league since, while finishing with PFF grades of 47.4, 30.5, and 54.2 respectively. Adebawore will also likely remain in the mix for a role, despite struggling across a total of just 269 snaps played in two seasons in the league since being selected in the 4th round in 2023. Even the late round rookie Tim Smith could be in the mix for a reserve role, which says more about the Colts’ depth at this position than it does about Smith. Buckner and Stewart could remain a great starting duo, but their ages are a concern and the Colts’ lack of depth behind them is a concern as well.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

At the edge defender position, the Colts were led by first round rookie Laiatu Latu, who had a 71.5 PFF grade across 618 snaps. Now going into his second season in the league, Latu has the potential to be even better in 2025. He figures to continue starting opposite Kwity Paye, another former first round pick, who has PFF grades of 69.6, 69.6, 74.3, and 66.8 in four seasons in the league across an average of 638 snaps per season. Now going into his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Dayo Odeyingbo was also above average last season with a 66.1 PFF grade across 746 snaps, but he left as a free agent this off-season. However, the Colts do get back Samson Ebukam after he missed all of last season due to injury. Ebukam has finished above 60 on PFF in all but one of his seven healthy seasons in the league, including a career best 84.4 PFF grade across 703 snaps in his most recent season in 2023. It seems unlikely he’ll repeat his career best season two years later, with a major injury in between, and he’s also now going into his age 30 season, but he has a good chance to be an effective rotational player.

The Colts also added JT Tuimoloau in the second round of this year’s draft to give themselves some added depth at the edge defender position and he will compete with veteran Tyquan Lewis, who played 355 snaps last season, for a role. Lewis has finished above 60 on PFF in four of the past five seasons, including a 65.0 PFF grade last season, but he’s only played 336 snaps per season in his career and he now heads into his age 30 season. The Colts don’t have any clear star players at the edge defender position, but they look solid overall at this spot.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Colts also lost starting linebacker EJ Speed this off-season, but he was below average with a 56.4 PFF grade across 1,011 snaps last season and the Colts have a promising replacement for him in Jaylon Carlies, a 2024 5th round pick who flashed a lot of potential with a 70.0 PFF grade across 242 snaps as a rookie. He’s still a projection to a larger role, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Speed and he gives them a higher upside at the position than his predecessor. Carlies will start next to Zaire Franklin, who had a 60.4 PFF grade across 1,157 snaps last season, in line with the 57.0 PFF grade across 1,136 snaps he had in 2022 and the 60.9 PFF grade across 1,090 snaps he had in 2023. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The concern with this group in the absence of Speed is their lack of depth, without any good replacements added for Carlies’ old reserve role. Joe Bachie was added in free agency and Hunter Wohler was added in the draft, but Bachie is a career special teamer who has played 238 snaps on defense in five seasons in the league, while Wohler is just a 7th round rookie. Segun Olubi remains, but he has played just nondescript 136 snaps since going undrafted in 2022. Cameron McGrone also remains, but he has played just 9 snaps since getting drafted in the 5th round in 2021. One of those players would have to play a significant role if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart. This is an underwhelming linebacking corps overall, but that isn’t much different than last season.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The Colts had a solid trio at cornerbacks last season with Kenny Moore, Jaylon Jones, and Samuel Womack receiving PFF grades of and 70.8, 67.4, and 71.4 across snap counts of 1,013, 1,146, and 673 respectively. There are reasons why all three might not be quite as good again in 2025 though. For Moore, the issue is his age, as he has finished above 60 on PFF in seven of eight seasons in the league, including five seasons above 70, but now heads into his age 31 season.

Moore could remain at least a solid starter unless he declines significantly, but he’s likely to be worse in 2025 than 2024. For Womack and Jones, the issue is they are one-year wonders, as Womack is a 2022 5th round pick who had played just 216 snaps in his career prior to last season, while Jones is a 2023 7th round pick who struggled with a 56.8 PFF grade across 788 snaps as a rookie before last season. Both could continue being solid players in 2025, but they could also regress.

Fortunately, the Colts did add Charvarius Ward in free agency on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal. Ward struggled in 2024 with a 56.2 PFF grade across 694 snaps, but he was dealing with serious issues in his personal life that almost definitely affected his play. Prior to 2024, Ward had been one of the best cornerbacks in the league, finishing with PFF grades of 83.2 and 82.6 in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, Ward has obvious bounce back potential in 2025. He figures to be locked into a starting job outside based on his salary, leaving the other three to compete for roles. The Colts also used a third round pick on Justin Walley, but he would likely need multiple injuries ahead of him on the depth chart to see a significant role in year one.

In addition to Chavarius Ward, the Colts also signed Cam Bynum in free agency, replacing free agent departure Justin Blackmon, who had a 69.3 PFF grade across 987 snaps last season. Bynum signed for 4 years, 60 million, but, even though Blackmon remains unsigned as of this writing, going from Bynum to Blackmon was basically a lateral move, as Bynum has PFF grades of 58.2, 73.2, and 63.0 in three seasons as a starter. He’s not a bad starting option, but was likely overpaid.

Bynum will start next to Nick Cross, who remains as the other starter. Cross had a solid 70.3 PFF grade in his first full season as a starter in 2024, but that didn’t come out of nowhere, as the 2022 3rd round pick flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade across 292 snaps in 2023. He’s still only a one-year starter and is relatively unproven as a result, but he is also still only in his age 24 season, so he has the upside to get even better if he can take a step forward in his fourth season in the league.

Rodney Thomas will likely remain the Colts’ top reserve safety. He only played 98 snaps in that role last season because both of their starting safeties stayed healthy, but he could easily end up being called upon more this season. A 7th round pick in 2022, Thomas was a starter earlier in his career, playing snap totals of 720 and 962 in his first two seasons in the league, but he struggled with a 54.3 PFF grade and a 58.2 PFF grade respectively, so he is better off as a reserve. Overall, this looks like an above average secondary.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Colts’ primary kicker last season was Matt Gay, who was slightly below average with 0.68 points below average. Gay started every game except one, when undrafted rookie Spencer Shrader filled in as an injury replacement. Shrader went on to play for the Chiefs and Chargers last season as well and actually made every kick, going 5/5 on field goals and 9/9 on extra points in four games, accumulating 2.11 points above average. This off-season, the Colts opted to bring back Shrader and release Gay. The Colts also added undrafted free agent Maddux Trujillo to compete with Shrader, but Shrader seems likely to be the favorite for the job in 2025. He’s still pretty unproven, but showed a lot of potential last season and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade over Matt Gay.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Colts once again have an above average roster, but will likely once again be limited by their quarterback play, which looks likely to be among the worst in the league again. If either of their quarterback options, Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, can exceed expectations and be even a capable starter in 2025, this team would likely make the post-season, but the odds are against that happening.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in AFC South

Chicago Bears 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 24, 2025July 29, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Quarterback

Two years ago, the Bears got the #1 pick, coming off of a 3-14 season and were faced with a choice. The Bears could have used the #1 pick on a new quarterback, which would have meant trading away Justin Fields, who they had traded a pair of first round picks to select 11th overall just two years prior and who didn’t seem like he had gotten a fair shot with a good roster yet, or they could have traded away the #1 pick for a huge return. The Bears opted for the latter, getting back a package that included a pair of first round picks, a pair of second round picks, and talented wide receiver DJ Moore from the Carolina Panthers, who then used the pick to select Bryce Young.

A year after that trade, going into the 2024 off-season, the Bears seemed like they had obviously made the correct choice. Justin Fields didn’t pan out, leading to the Bears still only going 7-10 in 2023, and Fields was eventually traded to the Steelers for a conditional late round pick, but Bryce Young fared even worse in his first season in Carolina, leading to the Panthers finishing just 2-15, the worst record in the league, which meant that the 2024 first round pick the Panthers gave the Bears in their trade the year before was #1 overall, giving the Bears the opportunity to select Caleb Williams, who looked like one of the best quarterback prospects of the last decade.

Williams also seemed to be stepping into a much better situation than most quarterbacks who are selected #1. The Bears’ record the previous year wasn’t good, but it was better than most teams who select #1 and, armed with multiple high draft picks from the Panthers and a significant amount of cap space due to their cheap, young core, the Bears had been aggressive in both the 2023 and 2024 off-seasons building out the rest of this roster. If Caleb Williams could be as good as advertised, the Bears seemed to have a clear path to contending quickly and for years to come.

Instead, the Bears actually took a step back in 2024, finishing with a 5-12 record. There are numerous reasons for the Bears’ disappointing season, but quarterback Caleb Williams has to be at the top of the list. Williams’ overall numbers don’t look that bad, as he completed 62.5% of his passes for an average of 6.30 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions (87.8 QB rating), while rushing for 6.04 YPC on 81 carries, but Williams also took 68 sacks on a team that had the most sacks allowed in the league.

Normally, a lot of the blame for all of those sacks would fall on the offensive line, but the Bears’ offensive line actually ranked 9th in pass blocking grade on PFF. The bigger problem was Williams held the ball for too long and showed a lack of pocket presence. Williams had the 6th highest time in the pocket in the NFL at 3.04 seconds, but only ranked 18th in quarterback pressure rate at 35.3, so even though he held the ball for a long time, he wasn’t pressured at a high rate. He ranked 3rd in the NFL in sack rate on pressured snaps at 27.8% and led the NFL with 17 unnecessary sacks taken. Overall, despite decent passing numbers, Williams received just a 67.6 PFF grade, good for 32nd among 44 eligible quarterbacks. Making matters worse, Bryce Young made significant strides in his second season in Carolina, while the other quarterback who would have been in consideration for the #1 pick in 2023, CJ Stroud, led the Texans to their second straight division title and won a playoff game for the second season in a row.

Of course, it’s tough to know how much of Williams’ struggles last season was his fault or the fault of poor coaching. Going into last season, the Bears’ coaching staff seemed like their biggest weakness and it proved to be a big downfall. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was fired mid-season and replaced with Thomas Brown. A few weeks after that, head coach Matt Eberflus was fired and Brown became interim head coach, in addition to their offensive coordinator and play caller, a massive responsibility for a coach who entered last season as a passing game coordinator with just one year of previous offensive coordinator experience.

Fortunately, the Bears made a big splash this off-season, hiring former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their new head coach. Not only was Johnson the most sought after head coaching candidate of the last couple head coaching cycles, but he is also a very quarterback friendly head coach who has the potential to do great things for Williams’ development. Johnson isn’t guaranteed success, like many great coordinators before him who have failed as first time head coaches, and Williams needs to put in the work to develop as well, but I don’t think Williams could have asked for a better coaching staff situation going into a pivotal second season in the league and there is a great chance that he and this Bears offense take a huge step forward this season, after ranking 32nd in yards per play and 31st in first down rate last season.

Williams will be backed up by either Tyson Bagent, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has been their backup for the past two seasons, or Case Keenum, a journeyman veteran they signed this off-season to compete with Bagent for the backup role. Both look like underwhelming options. Bagent has exceeded expectations by being a backup in his first two years in the league after going undrafted, but he looked like one of the worst backup options in the league when on the field, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions (71.9 QB rating), which is why they brought in Keenum to potentially give them an alternative this off-season.

Keenum has had some great years as a backup and even as a starter in the NFL, making 66 starts in 13 seasons in the league and posting a 84.6 QB rating, but his QB rating is just 57.6 over the past three seasons and now he heads into his age 37 season, so he looks like he’s at the end of the line. If Bagent can hold off Keenum for the backup job, that will say negative more about Keenum than it will positive about Bagent and the same is true if Keenum comes in and takes the job. The Bears will obviously need Williams to stay healthy again all season, given the state of their backup quarterback situation, but if Williams does stay healthy again, he and this offense have enormous potential, given Williams’ talent and the new coaching staff he has.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Bears’ offensive line wasn’t really the problem last season, but they did overhaul this group. The results of that overhaul could be a mixed bag, but one move that almost definitely helps this offense is signing center Drew Dalman, one of the best centers in the league, to replace Coleman Shelton, who was decent but unspectacular last season with a 66.4 PFF grade in 17 starts. Dalman has finished with PFF grades of 65.9, 82.3, and 78.8 over the past three seasons and is still very much in his prime, going into his age 27 season. He’s only a decent pass protector, but he is an incredible run blocker who should give the Bears’ ground game a big boost this season.

The Bears also made changes at both guard spots. They didn’t have bad guard play last season, as Teven Jenkins and Matt Pryor had PFF grades of 75.4 and 69.9 in 14 starts and 15 starts respectively as the primary starters, but the Bears didn’t necessarily downgrade the position either. At left guard, Jenkins wasn’t retained as a free agent because he has consistently had durability issues and he was replaced via trade for Joe Thuney who is highly accomplished, finishing above 70 on PFF in eight straight seasons, including a 79.9 PFF grade in 2024, and also highly durable, missing just two starts in nine seasons in the league. The one problem with Thuney is he is now heading into his age 33 season. However, he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and unless he declines significantly this season, he should remain an above average starter.

Pryor, meanwhile, will be replaced by Jonah Jackson, who also came over in a trade, reuniting with his former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. Jackson spent his first four seasons in Detroit from 2020-2023, making 57 starts. After struggling as a rookie with a 57.0 PFF grade, he seemed to turn a corner in his second and third seasons in the league with PFF grades of 69.3 and 66.1, before regressing to 59.7 in his contract year.

Jackson still got a 3-year, 51 million dollar deal from the Rams last off-season, but he lasted two games at guard before getting hurt, then moved to center upon his return, struggled mightily in one start out of position, and then played well back at guard in a meaningless week 18 game, finishing the 2024 season with a 67.5 PFF grade over across just 266 snaps. Now going into 2025, it’s tough to know what to make of Jackson, now two years removed from his last full season as a starter in which he was above average, but he’s still theoretically in his prime in his age 28 season and should have bounce back potential, even if that’s far from a guarantee.

At tackle, the Bears return the same starters as a year ago. Right tackle Darnell Wright was probably their best offensive lineman last season. Selected 10th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft after their trade down with the Panthers, Wright had a decent 62.4 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie before breaking out with a 79.3 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2024. Wright is technically a one-year wonder and could regress somewhat in 2025, but he also has a massive ceiling and, still only going into his age 24 season, his best years could still be ahead of him. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he took another step forward in 2025.

Left tackle Braxton Jones played pretty well, with a 77.4 PFF grade. He was only a 5th round pick in 2022, but has proven to be a steal, with PFF grades of 75.4 and 68.8 in his first two seasons in the league before continuing to play well last season. The one concern with him is he has missed 11 games over the past two seasons, but I wouldn’t necessarily call him an injury prone player. The Bears also added extra insurance this off-season with second round pick Ozzy Trapilo, who could potentially be viewed as the long-term starter if Jones isn’t retained as a free agent next off-season.

The Bears also used a high draft pick on a potential long-term starter at tackle in last year’s draft, taking Kiran Amegadjie in the third round. Amegadjie struggled as a rookie with a 40.3 PFF grade across 126 snaps and his long-term outlook doesn’t look as good as it did a year ago, which is probably why Trapilo was added as well, but he could still develop into a long-term starter. With Trapilo being drafted, the Bears may view Amegadjie as a guard long-term more than a tackle. If he sees action as an injury replacement in 2025, it is more likely to be inside than outside. The Bears likely have above average starters at least four of five offensive line spots, with right guard being the exception, and some recent high draft picks as reserves, so this offensive line looks like it should be a strength this season.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Bears’ running game was also underwhelming last season, ranking just 4.02 in YPC at 27th, even with Caleb Williams having success on the ground. Lead back D’Andre Swift averaged just 3.80 YPC across 253 carries. Their running game should get a boost from Drew Dalman being added on the offensive line, but many expected the Bears to use a high draft pick to address their running back group, potentially even moving up in the first round to take Ashton Jeanty, the top running back prospect in the draft class, because Ben Johnson’s offense relied heavily on the running game in Detroit, led by a talented duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.

The Bears couldn’t get Jeanty, but they did have opportunities to upgrade their backfield and opted not to, only using a 7th round pick on Kyle Monangai, an effective collegiate back who probably lacks the athleticism to be effective at the NFL level. That leaves Swift as the clear lead back again. A second round pick in 2020, Swift averaged 4.62 YPC in his first three seasons in the league, but was limited to 364 carries in 40 games due to injuries. In 2023, Swift was traded to Philadelphia and had 229 carries in 16 games, taking them for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns (4.58 YPC), giving him an impressive 4.60 YPC over 593 carries in his four seasons in the league, but only 2.53 of that came after contact, benefitting significantly from great blocking both in Detroit and Philadelphia.

In his first season in Chicago, that average after contact was similar at 2.46, but he had far less room to work with. Swift should benefit from the Bears’ run blocking and offense in general being better in 2025, but he’s an underwhelming lead back in general who is reliant on talent around him. He is at least a capable pass catcher though, finishing last season with a 42/386/0 slash line and 1.09 yards per route run, which are actually down from his career averages of a 55/419/2 slash line per 17 games and 1.27 yards per route run.

Roschon Johnson will also likely remain the #2 back. His yards per carry average was even worse than Swift’s at 2.73 on 55 carries, but that was because he was almost exclusively used as a short yardage option and he actually had success in that role, with a 56.4% carry success rate. He also rushed for 6 touchdowns, the same amount as Swift, despite a much smaller carry total. Johnson also had a decent 4.35 yards per carry average on 81 carries as a 4th round rookie in 2023 when he was used in an expanded role.

Without a significant addition being made to this backfield this off-season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Johnson get a bigger role beyond just short yardage and cut into D’Andre Swift’s carry total this season. Johnson also showed himself to be a decent pass catcher as a rookie with a 1.10 yards per route run average, though that did fall to 0.76 in 2024. Overall, the Bears have an underwhelming backfield, but they should benefit from better run blocking on the offensive line and likely a better offense around them in general.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Bears didn’t use any high draft picks on their backfield, but they did add to their receiving corps, adding tight end Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick and using one of their two second round picks on wide receiver Luther Burden. They are the latest in a long line of pass catchers the Bears have recently used significant assets on. DJ Moore was acquired in the trade with Carolina where they gave away the first overall pick and the Bears reportedly asked for Moore in lieu of adding another first round pick in the deal. Between that and the 4-year, 110 million dollar deal they gave him last off-season, the Bears have a lot of resources committed to Moore, but he is worth it.

Moore led the team with a 98/966/6 slash line last season and that actually constituted a down year for him. His receiving yardage was the third lowest of his 7-year career, while his 1.44 yards per route run average was the worst in his career. He exceeded 1,100 receiving yards in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023, with a yards per route run average over two yards per route run in 2019, 2020, and 2023, and he posted career highs across the board with a 96/1364/8 slash line and 2.31 yards per route run in 2023. In total, he has averaged 1.91 yards per route run in his career, while averaging a 83/1123/5 slash line per 17 games and missing just two games total. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, the former first round pick will almost definitely bounce back with a new coaching staff and likely better quarterback play in 2025.

Rome Odunze, the 9th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, will be the #2 receiver. He had a disappointing season last year as well, managing just a 54/734/3 slash line on 1.18 yards per route run, but he also could be a lot better in 2025, as he still has a lot of talent. With Moore and Odunze likely locked into their roles, that leaves Burden to compete with veteran free agent addition Olamide Zaccheus for the #3 receiver job. Burden had first round talent and could prove to be a steal, while Zaccheus had a solid 45/506/3 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run average last season in a part-time role with the Commanders.

Zaccheus only has averaged 1.28 yards per route run in his career and had a career best year in his sixth season in the league last season, so Burden should beat him out, but both could have roles. It wouldn’t be hard for either to be an upgrade on the departed Keenan Allen, who commanded 121 targets last season but was very inefficient on them, finishing with just a 70/744/7 slash line. His vacated targets will likely be split amongst Burden, Zaccheus, and Loveland, with Odunze also likely seeing a larger target share.

Loveland will likely be the starting tight end, but the Bears still have Cole Kmet, an experienced tight end on a 4-year, 50 million dollar deal, so he should still have a role and will probably prevent Loveland from having a big target share as a rookie. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Kmet had a career year in 2023 with a 73/719/6 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run, but like most of this offense he had a disappointing 2024 and fell to a 47/474/4 slash line and 0.91 yards per route run, marking the lowest yards per route run average of his career and the lowest receiving total since his rookie season.

Only going into his age 26 season, Kmet had obvious bounce back potential in 2025 before Loveland was drafted and he should still see a significant increase in efficiency this season, but his overall playing time and production upside are going to be significantly reduced by the addition of Loveland. He’s as good as any #2 tight end in the league though and should still have somewhat of a role. Overall, this looks like a deep and talented receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

It wasn’t just the Bears’ offense that was disappointing in 2024, as the defense underperformed expectations as well. In 2023, the Bears finished the season ranked 18th in yards per play allowed and 10th in first down rate allowed and were even better down the stretch after adding Montez Sweat in a deadline trade, but in 2024 they fell to 30th yards in per play allowed and 19th in first down rate allowed. Montez Sweat himself was a disappointment as well.

After finishing the 2023 season with 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate, including 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate in 9 games with the Bears, Sweat had just 5.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 16 games in 2024, while falling to a 65.6 PFF grade across 616 snaps, the lowest PFF grade since his rookie season in 2019. Sweat is still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, and had PFF grades of 79.7, 75.6, 86.4, and 74.8 in his four previous seasons prior to last season, so he has a good chance to bounce in 2025.

Sweat bouncing back is much needed because the rest of this position group has a lot of problems. DeMarcus Walker was underwhelming with a 64.7 PFF grade across 738 snaps last season and wasn’t retained this off-season, but his replacement Dayo Odeyingbo is not really an upgrade, despite being added on a 3-year, 48 million dollar deal. Odeyingbo was a second round pick in 2021, but has not lived up to the billing, finishing with PFF grades of 61.4, 62.6, 56.9, and 66.1 across an average of 515 snaps per season, while totaling 16.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 8.7% pressure rate in 61 games.

Last season was the best of Odeyingbo’s career, as his career high PFF grade came across a career high 746 snaps and he’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he may have further untapped potential, but the Bears are betting on his potential more than anything and could easily disappoint and be an overpay. Making matters even worse, the Bears desperately lack depth behind Sweat and Odeyingbo. Darrell Taylor (374 snaps), Austin Booker (283 snaps), and Jacob Martin (222 snaps) were the Bears’ top reserves last season. Martin and Taylor had pressure rates of 13.5% and 13.8% in limited roles, but neither was retained this off-season, leaving only Booker, who had a 6.5% pressure rate.

Booker is a 2024 5th round pick and could be better in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and he’ll almost definitely be counted on for a big role, as the Bears didn’t add any other reserve options this off-season, leaving Daniel Hardy, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 72 career snaps, and Dominique Robinson, a 2022 5th round pick with a career 4.8% pressure rate, as their other best reserve options. Even if Sweat bounces back and Odeyingbo continues developing, both of which are not guaranteed, this position group will still have significant concerns.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

The Bears did at least make significant additions at the interior defender position this off-season, signing Grady Jarrett to a 3-year, 42.75 million dollar deal and using a second round pick on Shemar Turner. Both have some upside, but both also have significant downside, for opposite reasons. While Turner is a rookie, and a particularly raw one at that, Jarrett is going into his age 32 season and his 11th season in the league. Jarrett already had a down year last season, falling to a 62.1 PFF grade across 744 snaps, after exceeding 70 on PFF in each of his previous seven seasons, and he could easily decline further again in 2025. Even if he doesn’t, it’s very likely his best days are behind him at this stage of his career.

Even with Jarrett and Turner being added, Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings will still have significant roles as well. Dexter, a 2023 2nd round pick, had a mini breakout season last year with a 70.3 PFF grade across 616 snaps, after receiving a 50.9 PFF grade across 433 snaps as a rookie. Dexter played well both against the run and as a pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 15 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate. He’s technically a one-year wonder and could regress somewhat in 2025, but he also could have permanently turned a corner and he could even develop further and have an even better season, still only in his age 24 season.

Andrew Billings wasn’t quite as good, but he still had a decent 62.5 PFF grade, his 5th straight healthy season above 60 on PFF, with his career best PFF grade of 76.4 coming in 2022 on 478 snaps. He did miss nine games due to injury and was limited to 297 snaps as a result, which is somewhat of a concern, as he also missed all but 72 snaps between 2020 and 2021 due to injury. Billings is also going into his age 30 season, so his age is becoming a concern as well. He could be a solid rotational player who stays healthy, but there is some concern that won’t happen.

Chris Williams (367 snaps), Byron Cowart (335 snaps), and Zacch Pickens (228 snaps) all saw somewhat significant snaps for the Bears at the interior defender position last season and all struggled with PFF grades of 45.5, 58.9, and 45.5 respectively. However, Cowart is no longer on the team and, with Jarrett and Turner being added, Pickens and Williams will play deep reserve roles this season at most, if they even make the final roster.

Pickens at least may have some untapped upside, as he was a 3rd round pick in 2023, but he has shown nothing across 492 career snaps to suggest he was deserving of that pick, while Williams is a 2020 undrafted free agent who had only played 107 career snaps prior to last season and who is highly unlikely to ever develop into even a decent rotational player. The Bears’ interior defender position group is much better for Jarrett and Turner being added and Pickens and Williams not needing to play significant roles this season as a result, but this is still only a solid position group.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Bears made a big investment in their linebacking corps two off-seasons ago when they added Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards on deals worth 72 million over 4 years and 19.5 million over 3 years respectively. Edmunds was the higher paid of the two by far, but Edwards has been the better player, earning an extension worth 20 million over 2 years this off-season. Edwards finished with a 79.6 PFF grade across 1,042 snaps in his first season in Chicago, which shouldn’t have been a surprise, as he had PFF grades of 76.3 and 84.8 across snap counts of 684 and 1,040 respectively in his final two seasons in Philadelphia before signing with the Bears in free agency.

Edwards had a down year last year with only a 60.7 PFF grade across 1,054 snaps though, part of why the Bears’ defense disappointed, but he is still only going into his age 29 season and could easily bounce back in a big way in 2025. Edmunds, meanwhile, has had PFF grades of 56.6 and 59.2 over the past two seasons respectively, across snap counts of 876 and 1,055. He did have a 79.0 PFF grade across 760 snaps in his final season in Buffalo in 2022, but that was by far the best season of his 7-year career and has proven to be a fluke. He’s still only in his age 27 season and could bounce back a little bit in 2025, but it’s unlikely he will ever live up to his 2022 season and the big contract the Bears gave him as a result of that season.

The Bears used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Ruben Hyppolite and he could replace Edmunds as the starter if they decide to move on from him after the guaranteed money on his contract is finished next off-season, but in the meantime he will replace former backup Jack Sanborn, who had a decent 63.1 PFF grade across 235 snaps last season, before signing with the Cowboys this off-season. Other reserve options include Noah Sewell, who has flashed some potential in two seasons in the league since being a 2023 5th round pick, albeit on just 32 snaps, and Amen Ogbongbemiga, a career special teamer and former undrafted free agent who has played just 146 career snaps in four seasons in the league. It won’t take much for Hyppolite to be the top reserve even as a rookie in an overall solid, but unspectacular position group.

Grade: B

Secondary

The strength of the Bears’ defense last season was their secondary, particularly their cornerback group, which was led by Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, who finished 10th and 12th respectively among cornerbacks with PFF grades of 76.2 and 76.0 respectively. For Johnson, this type of performance was expected and, in fact, it actually was a significant decline from 2023, when he led all cornerbacks with a 90.1 PFF grade, though that was the only season of his 5-year career in which he had played at that level, so that is likely somewhat of a fluke. Still, Johnson is one of the most talented cornerbacks in the league and is very much in his prime in his age 26 season, so I would expect him to continue playing at a high level, even if he doesn’t reach his 2023 peak again.

For Gordon, his performance last season was somewhat of a surprise. The 2022 2nd round pick has always had the upside, but he had PFF grades of 49.8 and 65.6 in his first two seasons in the league, so 2024 was a significant improvement for him. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will continue playing at that level or better, now going into his age 26 season, but he could also regress a little bit. He’s also only a slot cornerback, which limited him to 48.3 snaps per game last season, but, at his best, he’s one of the best pure slot cornerbacks in the league.

With Gordon playing in the slot, Tyrique Stevenson was the primary outside cornerback opposite Johnson last season, but he struggled with a 58.9 PFF grade across 810 snaps. Stevenson is a 2023 2nd round pick who has upside, but between last season and a 60.2 PFF grade across 830 snaps as a rookie, he hasn’t shown that upside yet. Stevenson also started ceding snaps down the stretch last season to Terrell Smith, who outplayed him significantly with a 78.5 PFF grade, albeit on just 207 snaps. Smith was just a 5th round pick in 2023, but he also showed potential with a 69.6 PFF grade across 377 snaps as a rookie and could ultimately be a better long-term option than Stevenson. Stevenson is probably the favorite for the #2 cornerback job in 2025, but he could be on a short leash and, at the very least, Smith is a good #4 cornerback option.

At safety, the Bears were led by Kevin Byard, who had a 72.8 PFF grade while making all 17 starts. That is nothing new for Byard, who has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of the past eight seasons, including three seasons over 80, while making all but 1 start during that time period. Byard is now heading into his age 32 season and could start declining soon, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, he has been remarkably durable throughout his career, and even if he does decline, he should remain a solid starter at the very least.

JaQuan Brisker began last season as the other starting safety and played decently with a 65.3 PFF grade across 5 starts, but then he suffered a season ending injury. Fortunately, the Bears actually didn’t experience any drop off without him, even though two different players made starts in his absence, with his original replacement Elijah Hicks also suffering a season ending injury after 356 snaps in 8 games and being replaced by Jonathan Owens, who played 429 snaps. In Brisker’s absence, Hicks and Owens received PFF grades of 71.8 and 66.5 respectively, so they were actually slight upgrades.

Brisker returns to the starting lineup in 2025 and will hopefully be healthier. The 2022 2nd round pick has played similarly to last season throughout his 3-year career, with PFF grades of 67.0 and 66.7 in 2022 and 2023, across 30 total starts. He’s still pretty young, going into his age 26 season, and could still have further untapped potential, but even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable starter. He will continue being backed up by Hicks and Owens.

Owens had a 61.9 PFF grade across 774 snaps in 2023 with the Packers, though he also struggled with a 48.3 PFF grade across 970 snaps in 2022 with the Texans and he now heads into his age 30 season, but he’s still a good reserve option. Meanwhile, Hicks is a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 46.2 PFF grade across the first significant action of his career in 2023, when he played 487 snaps, but he isn’t a bad reserve option either. This looks likely to remain an above average secondary again in 2025.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Cairo Santos was an above average kicker last season, accumulating 2.84 points above average. That actually was a down year for him, as he has totaled 19.46 points above average over the past five seasons combined, good for 5th most among kickers during that span. Santos is going into his age 34 season in 2025, and last year could have been the beginning of a decline, but kickers can remain effective into their mid-30s, so there is a good chance he remains an above average kicker this season.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Bears disappointed last year, drastically underperforming their talent level, in large part due to their poor coaching staff. Going into 2025, that coaching staff seems likely to be significantly improved, led by new Head Coach Ben Johnson, a highly accomplished coordinator and one of the most sought after head coaching hires of the past few off-seasons, as well as new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, whose past success as a coordinator has earned him two head coaching opportunities in his career. However, Johnson is still a first time head coach who isn’t guaranteed to be a success, the Bears were statistically even worse than their record last season, and they have one of the toughest schedules in the league, so it seems unlikely they will be a playoff team.

Prediction: 4-13, 4th in NFC North

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 23, 2025September 2, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers

Quarterback

The Buccaneers made the post-season for the fifth straight season in 2024, the longest active streak in the NFC, but how they’ve done it hasn’t always been the same. The streak started in 2020 when the Buccaneers signed Tom Brady, who immediately elevated a team with a great supporting cast that was a quarterback away from contention and, as a result, the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers then spent aggressively to keep their team together in 2021 and 2022, borrowing future cap space to do so, but, while they made the playoffs in both seasons, they fell from 13 wins in 2021 to 8 wins in 2022, making the post-season only because of how weak the rest of the division was.

Following that disappointing 2022 season, Tom Brady retired and the Buccaneers were faced with a difficult decision. They needed to part ways with some players to get under the cap either way and could have opted to completely blow it up and start from scratch. Instead, the Buccaneers opted not to completely rebuild and kept as much of their core as they could. They then took a flier on free agent quarterback Baker Mayfield, a former #1 pick who had some successful seasons with the Browns earlier in his career, but who came cheap because he was two years removed from his last successful season and had most recently struggled mightily in a season that saw him make starts for both the Panthers and Rams in 2022.

Mayfield’s addition turned out to be a great decision as he bounced back with 64.3% completion, 7.14 YPA, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, a QB rating of 94.6, much more in line with the 93.7 QB rating he had in 2018 and the 95.9 QB rating he had in 2020 than the 83.1 QB rating he had in 2021 or the 79.0 QB rating he had in 2022. The result was the Buccaneers winning 9 games, the division, and even another playoff game. However, the Buccaneers struggled in terms of both yards per play differential at -0.33 and first down rate differential at -2.75%, which are much more predictive year-to-year than win/loss record. Their offense ranked 23rd in first down rate and 14th in yards per play, while their defense ranked 21st in first down rate allowed and 22th in yards per play allowed.

Between that and Baker Mayfield’s history of inconsistency, it seemed likely the Buccaneers would have fewer wins in 2024 than they did in 2023. Instead, their offense improved to a new level, ranking 3rd in first down rate and 4th in yards per play, in large part due to quarterback Baker Mayfield having a career best year, completing 71.4% of his passes for 7.89 YPA, 41 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 106.8. The Buccaneers’ win total of 10 wasn’t a significant improvement and the Buccaneers actually lost their first playoff game this time around, but they succeeded in a way that tends to be much more sustainable long-term, finishing the season 3rd in first down rate differential at +4.33% and 5th in yards per play differential at +0.75, both of which are much better than their record suggested.

It is fair to wonder how much of the improvement of Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ offense was because of offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen came to Tampa Bay in a tough spot, replacing Dave Canales, whose previous success turning around Mayfield’s career in 2023 landed him the Carolina Panthers’ head coach job in 2024, but Coen’s offense proved to be even more effective than Canales’ offense. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, Coen also parlayed his one season as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator into a head coach job, leaving for the Jaguars, with former Coen assistant Josh Grizzard being elevated to his first NFL offensive coordinator job to replace him. It’s very possible Grizzard doesn’t have anywhere near the same level of success Coen had last season, which would be a big blow to this team.

Mayfield will again be backed up by Kyle Trask, who was originally drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 NFL Draft to potentially replace Brady long-term, before losing a competition for the starting job to Mayfield. In four seasons as the backup, Trask has only gotten to attempt 11 passes, so he’s an unknown commodity, but the Buccaneers like him enough to keep him as the backup for a fifth straight season, preventing him from leaving as a free agent with a 1-year, 2.7875 million dollar deal this off-season. It’s tough to know what to make of him, but needless to say the Buccaneers are hoping that Mayfield can stay healthy all season long again in 2025.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

It wasn’t just improved play by Baker Mayfield and the passing game that led to the Buccaneers’ offense being more effective this season, as they also improved significantly on the ground, going a 3.44 yards per carry average in 2023, dead last in the NFL, to a 5.25 yards per carry average in 2024, 3rd in the NFL. Part of that was due to improved offensive line play, which I will get into later, but the Buccaneers also got a huge year from rookie running back Bucky Irving, who was one of the best running backs in the league, despite only being a 4th round pick.

Irving rushed for 1,122 yards and 8 touchdowns on 207 carries, ranking 4th among eligible running backs in yards per carry at 5.42, 1st in yards per carry after contact at 4.03, 4th in PFF grade at 90.6, 2nd in elusive rating at 122.1, and 6th in carry success rate at 55.1. He was also an effective receiver too, ranking 6th among running backs with 1.63 yards per route run, taking 52 targets for a 47/392/0 slash line, despite playing only a part-time role in passing situations. Irving might not be quite as good again in 2025, especially with the coordinator change, but he looks likely to be one of the best running backs in the league for years to come.

Backup running back Rachaad White also had a solid season with a 4.26 yards per carry average and a 50.7% carry success rate on 144 carries, a significant upgrade from when he averaged 3.64 yards per carry and had a 40.8% carry success rate on 272 carries as the lead back in 2023. He saw his role gradually decline as the season went on, with White receiving 70 carries to Irving’s 67 in the first eight games they played together, as opposed to a 126-74 split in favor of Irving in the final eight games of the season. I would expect a similar split to those final eight games in 2025. White has struggled as the lead back before, but is a solid backup option.

White is also likely to continue having a role in the passing game, which he has always had some success in, with a career 1.22 yards per route run average in three seasons in the league. Sean Tucker likely remains as the #3 back, after averaging 6.16 YPC on 50 carries last season. He went undrafted in 2023 and only has 65 carries in two seasons in the league, but he has a career 5.09 YPC average. He will likely remain in the same role and rotate in if either of the two backs ahead of him on the depth chart miss time. With an impressive lead back in Bucky Irving and good depth behind him, this is an impressive backfield.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Buccaneers’ offensive line was also significantly improved in 2024, going from 10th in PFF pass blocking grade and 29th in PFF run blocking grade in 2023 to 2nd in pass blocking grade and 15th in run blocking grade in 2024. The biggest reason for this was the emergence of right guard Cody Mauch, a 2023 2nd round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie with a 44.7 PFF grade across 17 starts, but who then improved drastically in year two, finishing with a 75.4 PFF grade across 17 starts. Mauch is still technically a one-year wonder and could regress in 2025, but even if he does, he’s highly unlikely to regress back to his rookie year form and he also just as easily could continue being an above average starting guard, or even improve further.

Aside from Mauch’s massive improvement, the rest of this line was actually largely the same in 2024 as 2023. Center Graham Barton and left guard Ben Bredeson were new starters, but both were actually below average, with PFF grades of 55.8 and 56.2 respectively. Barton was a first round pick in 2024 and could easily be a lot better in his second season in the league in 2025, while Bredeson has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020, while making 42 starts total, and will likely continue struggling in 2025.

Tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke also remain in 2025 and both had similar seasons in 2024 as they had in 2023. Wirfs had an 82.8 PFF grade, his fifth straight season with a PFF grade in the 80s since entering the league as the 13th overall pick in 2020. Wirfs started his career at right tackle and has seamlessly made the transition to the blind side over the past two seasons. Only going into his age 26 season, I would expect Wirfs to play at a similar level for years to come and could even have further untapped upside. Goedeke, meanwhile, has had PFF grades of 72.5 and 73.7 over the past two seasons, after struggling as a 2nd round rookie in 2022 with a 43.7 PFF grade. He should continue being an above average starter in 2025.

Depth is a concern on this offensive line. The Buccaneers’ starting offensive line was pretty healthy last season, missing just five games combined between the five of them, which is not guaranteed to continue. Justin Skule (361 snaps) and Robert Hainsey (94 snaps) played well as the top reserves last season with PFF grades of 69.2 and 73.3 respectively, but both left this off-season and weren’t really replaced. The most notable off-season addition the Buccaneers made on the offensive line was Charlie Heck, who is likely to be the swing tackle, even though he has finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2020 (23 starts).

On the interior, the Buccaneers are hoping Sua Opeta can be their top reserve, after he missed all of last season with injury. A 2019 undrafted free agent, Opeta has only finished above 60 on PFF once in his career and coming off of a major injury hurts his projection even more. The Buccaneers have an above average starting offensive line, but they could have significant problems if they can’t stay as healthy as they did a year ago, given their lack of depth.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

If there is one reason this offense could survive the loss of offensive coordinator Liam Coen without declining significantly, it’s a receiving corps that should be significantly improved. Chris Godwin is set to return from a broken ankle that cost him all but 10 games last season. Godwin is an accomplished receiver who has finished above 70 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, including six seasons over 80, while surpassing 1000 yards receiving four times and averaging 1.97 yards per route run for his career. As good as he’s been in his career, he was actually on his way to a career year best last season, as his 2.36 yards per route run average was a career high and the 121/1399/12 slash line he was on pace for would have also set new career highs across the board.

There is some concern about whether or not Godwin will be quite as good again in 2025, coming off of a major injury, but he’s still in his relative prime in his age 29 season and, even if he isn’t quite as good, he should remain an above average receiver and having him healthy for significantly more games will be a boost to this offense. In Godwin’s absence last season, Jalen McMillan was the de facto #2 receiver and the 3rd round rookie was underwhelming overall, with a PFF grade of 61.0 and a yards per route run average of 1.18, but he seemed to turn a corner late in the season, with a 24/316/7 slash line and 1.90 yards per route run in his final five seasons of the regular season. Now going into his second season in the league, it’s very possible he will continue being an efficient player, though his role will be smaller.

McMillan’s role being smaller is in part due to Godwin returning, but it’s also due to the Buccaneers using their first round pick in this year’s draft on Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka will have to earn a role in a deep receiving corps, but his addition does give them some insurance in case Godwin can’t return to form or in case McMillan doesn’t continue developing. Egbuka also gives the Buccaneers a potential long-term replacement for Mike Evans, who has been the Buccaneers #1 receiver for years, exceeding 1000 yards receiving and a 70 PFF grade in all eleven seasons in the league since being selected 7th overall in 2014, with a career 2.08 yards per route run average and seven seasons above 80 on PFF, but who is now going into his age 32 season and will start to decline soon.

Evans hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, finishing last season with a 74/1004/11 slash line in just 14 games, while averaging 2.41 yards per route run and receiving an 89.0 PFF grade, but age 31 to age 32 the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability and a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. It’s very possible Evans sees at least some decline this season, but the addition of Egbuka, the return of Godwin, and the potential continued development of McMillan should more than make up for that in a wide receiver group that looks likely to be significantly better in 2025 than 2024.

With the issues the Buccaneers had at wide receiver last season, tight end Cade Otton took on a bigger role, finishing second on the team with 87 targets, up from target totals of 65 and 67 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023, but he wasn’t particularly efficient, finishing the season with a 59/600/4 slash line, 1.30 yards per route run, and a 63.4 PFF grade. That was still better than 2022 and 2023, when the 2022 4th round pick had yard per route run averages of 0.84 and 0.80 and PFF grades of 56.6 and 52.1, but Otton doesn’t seem like he has a particularly high upside and will likely max out as a decent starting tight end. I would expect a significantly smaller role in the offense from him this season, given how much better the Buccaneers’ wide receivers should be.

Otton will continue being backed up by Payne Durham, who was an above average blocker last season, but averaged just 0.78 yards per route run. The 2023 5th round pick has a career 0.87 yards per route run average and is a one-year wonder in terms of blocking at the level he blocked at in 2024, but he could remain a solid blocking tight end. He won’t be needed for much of a pass catching role in a group with a significantly better wide receiver group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

While the Buccaneers’ offense took a big step forward in 2024, their defense wasn’t much better, ranking 15th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed. Their best player was probably edge defender Yaya Diaby, who had a mini breakout year in his second season in the league, with a 76.7 PFF grade that was best among Buccaneers defenders across 785 snaps. Also a solid run defender, Diaby especially played well as a pass rusher, only totaling 4.5 sacks, but adding 14 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate. A 2023 3rd round pick, Diaby showed potential with a 64.2 PFF grade across 515 snaps as a rookie, before taking a big step forward last season. He should remain an above average starter going forward, with the upside to potentially get even better.

The rest of this edge defender group was underwhelming last season though. Anthony Nelson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka were second and third among Buccaneers edge defenders with 573 snaps and 539 snaps played respectively and both struggled with PFF grades of 55.9 and 52.0 respectively. Tyron-Shoyinka wasn’t retained this off-season, while Nelson is likely to have a smaller role this season, with the Buccaneers adding veteran Haason Reddick in free agency, using a 4th round pick on David Walker, and likely giving a bigger role to 2024 second round pick Chris Braswell, who showed some promise with a 61.0 PFF grade across 328 snaps as a rookie. Nelson also has bounce back potential in a smaller role, as he had finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, on an average of 375 snaps, and is still only going into his age 28 season in 2025.

Reddick is likely to start opposite Diaby. Reddick had a weird 2024 season, holding out for the first seven games of the season in search of a new contract and then struggling with a 53.5 PFF grade across 392 snaps once he returned. However, he had PFF grades of 72.8, 67.9, 81.1, and 75.2 on snap counts of 874, 852, 816, and 861 in his previous four seasons, excelling as a pass rusher with 50.5 sacks, 46 hits, and a 12.7% pressure rate in 66 games, so he has bounce back potential with his new team in what should be a normal season for him. The one concern is he is going into his age 31 season, but even if he is not quite as good as he was from 2020-2023, he should still be an upgrade for the Buccaneers on the edge. This could be a solid position group overall.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

Things remain largely the same at the interior defender position in 2025 as they were in 2024, with their top-4 in terms of snaps played, Vita Vea (705 snaps), Calijah Kancey (541 snaps), Logan Hall (538 snaps), Greg Gaines (395 snaps) all returning for 2025. Vea was by far the best of the bunch, finishing last season with a 75.7 PFF grade, playing well as a run defender and as a pass rusher, with 7 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate. This was nothing new for Vea, who has finished above 70 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, mostly playing well against the run and adding 30.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 95 career games. Vea could start to decline soon, going into his age 30 season, but even if he isn’t quite at his best in 2025, he should still remain an above average starter.

Calijah Kancey was also an effective pass rusher, with 7.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 10.4% pressure rate, but he struggled mightily against the run. This is similar to how the 2023 1st round pick played as a rookie, when he had 4 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.9% pressure rate, but again struggled mightily as a run defender. Kancey is still only going into his age 24 season and has time to get better as a run defender and, at the very least, he should remain an above average interior pass rusher in 2025 and beyond.

Logan Hall is also a recent high draft pick, selected in the second round in 2022, but he hasn’t shown himself to be worth that pick, either as a run defender or a pass rusher, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league. He could still have theoretical upside, only going into his age 25 season, but there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025 than he has been in his first three seasons in the league. Gaines also struggled last season, finishing with a 50.5 PFF grade. It was his third straight season below 60 on PFF and, while he did begin his career with three straight seasons above 60, it seems unlikely that he will bounce back to that level at this point, even if he isn’t totally over the hill yet in his age 29 season.

The one small change to this group from a year ago is that William Gholston wasn’t retained, after having a solid season in a very limited role last season, with a 65.6 PFF grade across 201 snaps. He will likely be replaced by 5th round pick Elijah Roberts, who is likely to struggle, even in a limited role. This position group has some problems, but Vita Vea is a great all-around defensive tackle, while Calijah Kancey is a great pass rusher, so there are also some things to like about this group.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The longest tenured Buccaneer, by far, is Lavonte David, who has been with the team since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2012. In his 13 seasons in the league, David has finished above 60 on PFF in every season of his career, above 70 in nine seasons, and above 80 in five seasons. He wasn’t at his best last season, with a 68.7 PFF grade across 1,077 snaps, and he’s now heading into his age 35 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him, so he could drop off even more significantly in 2025, but there is still a chance he holds off father time for another year and remains at least a solid starter.

The other starting linebacker spot is much more of a question. Last season, the Buccaneers started the season with SirVocea Dennis and KJ Britt splitting snaps there. Dennis played decently, with a 67.3 PFF grade, but he went down for the season with injury after just 105 snaps in four games, while Britt struggled with a 44.6 PFF grade across 613 snaps. Britt took over the every down role after Dennis got hurt, but he struggled so much that he started ceding snaps down the stretch to JJ Russell, who was an upgrade in a limited role, with a 67.0 PFF grade across 249 snaps.

Britt and Russell weren’t retained this off-season and, now healthy, the Buccaneers look likely to give Dennis the first crack at the starting job. The 2023 5th round pick has upside, also having a 66.3 PFF grade as a rookie before last year’s solid performance prior to his injury, but he’s extremely unproven and a projection to a larger role, playing just 206 snaps total in two seasons in the league. Even if he earns a role this season, it might not be an every down role.

To compete with him, the Buccaneers added veteran Anthony Walker in free agency. Walker has started 83 of 99 games played in eight seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in six of those seasons, but he fell to a 48.0 PFF grade across 516 snaps in 2024 and now he heads into his age 30 season. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 33 games in eight seasons in the league, with at least three games missed in five of those eight seasons. He could still have another solid season as a starter or rotational player left in him, but his age, recent struggles, and injury history are a concern. With Walker’s issues, Dennis’ lack of experience, and Lavonte David’s age, there are a lot of concerns with this linebacking corps, but there is at least upside.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The biggest weakness of this secondary last season was the safety position. Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead began the season as the starters and finished with PFF grades of 56.8 and 58.0 respectively. Both also missed significant time with injury, limited to 528 snaps in 9 games and 731 snaps in 12 games respectively. In their absences, the primary replacement was Christian Izien, who also struggled, with a 57.6 PFF grade across 697 snaps.

The good news is the Buccaneers should get better play at least one safety spot this season, with Antoine Winfield having a lot of bounce back potential. Prior to last season’s down year, Winfield had received PFF grades of 86.1, 77.8, and 91.5 in the three previous seasons and he is still very much in his prime in his age 27 season. Last year’s struggles likely stemmed from not being totally healthy for most of the season, even when on the field. Assuming his injuries are behind him, Winfield’s upside is still as high as any safety in the league this season.

The other safety spot is much more of a question. Whitehead wasn’t retained this off-season, which isn’t a huge deal because he struggled last season, but the Buccaneers didn’t do anything to replace him. Christian Izien is a candidate for the other starting safety role. He had a decent rookie season in 2023, with a 66.8 PFF grade across 718 snaps, before struggling last season, but that came as a slot cornerback and he was originally an undrafted free agent, so it’s not a guarantee he ever develops into a consistent starter anywhere. Kaevon Merriweather might be another option, but he was also a 2023 undrafted free agent and he has mostly been nondescript across 419 snaps in two seasons in the league, though he did have a 65.7 PFF grade in a limited role (260 snaps) last season.

Maybe the Buccaneers’ best option would be to move slot cornerback Tykee Smith to safety, where he played in college, as the Buccaneers have a lot more depth at cornerback than at safety. Smith played pretty well on the slot last season as a third round rookie though, with a 70.2 PFF grade across 632 snaps, so the Buccaneers might be hesitant to move him off that spot and it’s possible he isn’t as good at safety as he was on the slot. Zyon McCollum and Jamel Dean were both above average as the other two cornerbacks last season though, with PFF grades of 69.5 and 75.1 respectively, and the Buccaneers then added cornerbacks in the second and third round of this year’s draft in Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish, so they do have a surplus at that position.

Dean is the veteran of the bunch, selected in the 3rd round in 2019. He has never finished worse than 68.3 on PFF for a season, with five seasons above 70 out of six seasons in the league, but durability has been a consistent issue for him, as he’s missed at least two games in every season, with a maximum snap count of 884 snaps in a season, while missing 18 games total in six seasons in the league. McCollum, meanwhile, is a 2022 5th round pick who is a one-year wonder, having a solid season last season after PFF grades of 46.3 and 52.1 on snap counts of 278 and 784 in his first two seasons in the league respectively.

McCollum could continue being a solid cornerback, but he could also regress somewhat. Overall, this secondary looks likely to be better than a year ago, with Winfield likely to bounce back in a big way and a couple relatively high draft picks being added, but the Buccaneers still need to figure out the other safety spot and they have a couple young defensive backs who exceeded expectations last season who may not continue playing at the same level in 2025.

Grade: B

Kickers

Kicker Chase McLaughlin’s career got off to a slow start, as he attempted kicks for six different teams in his first three seasons in the league, finishing below average in all three seasons, but he has finished above average in each of the past three seasons and has especially been good over the past two seasons. His 17.04 points above average in 2023 and 2024 combined are the 4th most in the league over that span, while his 9.64 points above average in 2024 ranked 3rd. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best kickers in the league in 2025.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Buccaneers’ offense might not be as good in 2025 without offensive coordinator Liam Coen, but they are starting from a high enough base point as a team, ranking 5th in yards per play differential and 3rd in first down rate differential in 2024, that they should still be an above average team, even if their offense regresses. They still look like the best team in the NFC South, they have an easy schedule, and, while they probably aren’t a true contender for the Super Bowl, they are still one of the top few teams in the NFC.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC South

Houston Texans 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 17, 2025September 4, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Quarterback

In 2023, the Texans had a surprise 10-7 season, won their division, and then won a wild card playoff game, led by impressive rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, as well as other talented young players who had breakout seasons. Last off-season, the Texans were aggressive in trying to maximize the rest of their roster while Stroud and others were on cheap rookie contracts and made numerous veteran additions, most notably wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who they acquired in a trade with the Bills. Many expected them to take another step forward in 2024 as a result and potentially even contend for a Super Bowl.

The Texans’ 2024 season wasn’t bad, but it was disappointing given their pre-season expectations, as their 2024 season essentially went the same way as 2023 did, a 10-7 record, a division title, and a wild card playoff win. Making matters even worse, the Texans were not even as good as their 10-7 record suggested in the regular season, finishing the year with a negative first down rate differential at -0.38% and only finishing slightly positive in yards per play differential at +0.03.

Their offense was the most disappointing as they went from 12th in yards per play and 17th in first down rate in 2023 to 19th in yards per play and 29th in first down rate in 2024. CJ Stroud fell from a 63.9% completion, 8.23 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions (100.8 QB rating) to 63.2% completion, 7.01 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (87.0 QB rating). It wasn’t all his fault as his PFF grade actually only fell from 83.0 to 78.9, but it was a relatively disappointing year from him, given how good he was as a rookie.

I will get into the other reasons this offense struggled last season later and will address whether I expect those issues to continue in 2025, but Stroud’s disappointing second season in the league wasn’t totally unexpected, given that impressive rookies often take a step back in their second season in the league, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he bounced back or even had his best season yet in his third season in the league in 2025, still only turning 24 in October. The future is still very bright for Stroud, who has the potential to be among the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Stroud will continue being backed up by Davis Mills. A 3rd round pick in 2021, Mills made 25 starts in his first two seasons in the league before Stroud was added, but completed just 63.6% of his passes for an average of 6.62 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 25 interceptions, while going just 5-19-1. Mills’ lack of supporting cast can be blamed somewhat for his struggles in those two seasons and it’s possible he has gotten better since then, but across 75 pass attempts since becoming the backup, Mills has completed 50.7% of his passes for an average of 5.13 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He showed enough for the Texans to keep him on a 1-year, 5 million dollar extension, but he’s an underwhelming backup option and the Texans would obviously be in trouble if Stroud missed significant time and Mills had to start in his absence.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Part of the reason why the Texans’ offense disappointed last season was injuries to their receiving corps. In 2023, the Texans had a pair of talented young wide receivers who had breakout years in Nico Collins and Tank Dell and then they added veteran Stefon Diggs to the mix to give them arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. However, Collins missed five games, Diggs suffered a torn ACL that ended his season after 8 games, while Dell was not 100% to start the season recovering from a broken leg suffered late in 2023 and then, right around when he started to look like himself, he suffered a multi-ligament tear in his knee in week 16 that could cost him all of 2025.

With Diggs signing with the Patriots this off-season and Dell’s 2025 in jeopardy, wide receiver was a big need for the Texans this off-season and they addressed it by trading for veteran Christian Kirk and then using second and third round picks on Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Nico Collins remains as the #1 receiver. The 2021 3rd round pick showed promise early in his career, with a yards per route run average of 1.24 as a rookie and 1.68 in his second season in the league, despite shaky quarterback play, and then he broke out in his third season in 2023 when Stroud arrived, finishing the season with a 80/1297/8 slash line in 15 games on just 109 targets, while averaging 3.10 yards per route run and posting a 91.0 PFF grade.

In 2024, his PFF grade was even better at 91.6 and he had a 68/1006/7 slash line with 2.87 yards per route run on just 99 targets in 12 games. Over 17 games, that extrapolates to a 96/1425/10 slash line and that’s despite possibly not being 100% after returning from injury. Through his first five games of the season before getting hurt, Collins had a 32/567/3 slash line, which extrapolates to a 109/1928/10 slash line over 17 games. Injuries have always been an issue for him as he’s missed at least two games in all four seasons in the league, with 17 total games missed, but he’s among the best receivers in the league when healthy and, still only going into his age 26 season, his upside is massive in 2025 if he can avoid injury.

Christian Kirk should be a solid #2 option. He has missed 14 games over the past two seasons combined but averaged 2.07 yards per route run in 2023 and 1.72 yards per route run in 2024. Over the past four seasons combined, he has averaged 1.85 yards per route run with an average slash line of 77/1025/5 per 17 games and he’s still relatively young, only in his age 29 season. He probably won’t have as big of a target share in Houston as he had over the past four seasons, but his quarterback situation should be better and he won’t face many double teams with Nico Collins taking coverage away from him. Injuries are his biggest concern, but he comes with plenty of upside if he can stay healthy.

Kirk as the #2 receiver leaves the rookies Higgins and Noel to compete with holdover John Metchie for the #3 receiver job. Metchie is a former high draft pick himself, going in the second round in 2022, but he missed his whole rookie season while recovering from cancer and hasn’t developed in two years since, averaging just 1.00 yards per route run in a part-time role. He’s still only in his age 25 season and could still have upside, but the rookie Higgins will probably end up as the #3 receiver sooner rather than later and Metchie could end up as low as 5th on the depth chart behind Noel.

Tight end Dalton Schultz also had a down year in 2024 as well, going from a 59/635/5 slash line with 1.47 yards per route run in 2023 to a 53/532/2 slash line with 1.04 yards per route run last season. Schultz also averaged 1.47 yards per route run in 2021 and 1.38 yards per route run in 2022 and he’s still relatively young, going into his age 29 season, so it’s very possible 2024 proves to be a fluke and he bounces back in 2025. Even at his best, he’s not an elite tight end, but he is a solid one and a bounce back from him would help this offense at least somewhat.

Schultz will be backed up by either Cade Stover or Brevin Jordan. Stover, a 2024 4th round pick, was mediocre as a rookie with 0.92 yards per route run and a 51.9 PFF grade, but he could be better in his second season in the league. Jordan, meanwhile, was impressive as the #2 tight end in 2023, with 1.59 yards per route run and a 68.7 PFF grade, but he missed most of last season with injury. Jordan, a 2021 5th round pick, is still only going into his age 25 season, but he has just a 1.02 yards per route run average aside from 2023 and coming back from a significant injury complicates matters, so it’s far from a guarantee that he will return to his 2023 form in 2025. He’s still probably the favorite for the #2 tight end job, but it’s very possible both tight ends see roles behind Schultz. Overall, this receiving corps looks likely to be better than a year ago, when injuries significantly affected it.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The other reason this offense disappointed in 2024 was the struggles of their offensive line. The Texans overhauled their offensive line this off-season, adding numerous starting options, but they also traded away left tackle Laremy Tunsil in the process and he was their best offensive lineman last season with a 76.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. The Texans felt they wouldn’t be able to afford him long-term given all of the Texans’ other young players who will need big pay raises in the next couple off-seasons and wanted to get something for him while they could, ahead of his age 31 season. However, none of the other offensive linemen the Texans brought in this off-season have Tunsil’s upside and, as a result, this offensive line could potentially be even worse in 2025 than it was in 2024.

Tunsil’s likely replacement is Cam Robinson, who the Texans signed to a 1-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Robinson has made 101 starts in eight seasons in the league, all at left tackle, so he comes with plenty of experience, but he also has never finished with a PFF grade higher than 67.2. The flip side of that is he has finished above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons, so he at least gives the Texans a floor at the left tackle position, but he doesn’t give them much upside, especially since he is now heading into his age 30 season.

At right tackle, the Texans have several options. Tytus Howard started 12 games there last season, but he can also play guard, where he started 4 games down the stretch last season and where he has made 25 of his 77 career starts in six seasons in the league. If he moves to guard, the Texans could start 2024 2nd round pick Blake Fisher, rookie 2nd round pick Aireontae Ersery, or veteran free agent addition Trent Brown at right tackle.

Fisher was mediocre across 337 snaps (5 starts) as a rookie, with a 50.4 PFF grade, but could take a step forward in his second season in the league. Ersery enters the league pretty raw, but also has upside and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be a capable starter in year one. Brown has finished above 60 on PFF in all ten seasons in the league, including three seasons over 70, but he’s also missed 61 games in his career, including 20 over the past two seasons, and he’s now heading into his age 32 season so, even if he starts at the beginning of the season, the chances he gets hurt or gets benched due to age related decline are significant.

Howard figures to be a starter somewhere, whether right tackle or one of the guard spots. He’s been inconsistent in six years in the league, finishing below 60 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but he did have a career best year in 2024, with a 70.5 PFF grade. He’s unlikely to repeat the best year of his career again in 2025, given his inconsistent past, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him remain at least a capable starter. Guard makes more sense for him than right tackle because the Texans have fewer options there, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play right tackle or even for him to see starts at both.

Aside from Howard, the Texans options at guard are free agent acquisition Laken Tomlinson, trade acquisition Ed Ingram, and holdover Juice Scruggs, who made 8 starts at center last season, but started his final 5 games at guard. Tomlinson is a veteran who has made 155 starts in 10 seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in seven of those seasons, but he’s now going into his age 33 season and the 62.1 PFF grade he had last season was his best of the past three seasons. That’s probably the best case scenario for him at this point in his career and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him struggle.

Ingram was a second round pick by the Vikings in 2022, but he hasn’t developed, with PFF grades of 57.1, 59.5, and 54.0 in three seasons in the league (41 starts), which is why he was available so inexpensively via trade this off-season. He may still have some untapped potential, but he is running out of time to make good on that potential. Scruggs is also a former 2nd round pick, selected in 2023. He struggled in seven starts at guard as a rookie with a 51.5 PFF grade, but was better last season with a 63.6 PFF grade and could remain at least a capable starter. Overall, the Texans’ guard options are underwhelming, but it’s not like they got great guard play last season either.

If Scruggs doesn’t end up with a starting job at guard, he could compete at center. His primary competition at center would be Jarrett Patterson, who has been decent with PFF grades of 60.4 and 61.0 across 16 total starts in two seasons in the league, despite only being a 6th round pick in 2023. The Texans have options on the offensive line, but overall it seems like they have much more quantity than quality and, as a result, this is likely to remain a below average offensive line again this season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with Stefon Diggs, the other key veteran addition the Texans made on offense last season was running back Joe Mixon. Unlike Diggs, Mixon remains on the roster and will remain the starter in 2025. Mixon wasn’t necessarily a disappointment in his first season in Houston, but he wasn’t a difference maker either. He handled the load, with 245 carries in 14 games and he had 11 rushing touchdowns, but his 4.15 yards per carry average was unspectacular. He also slowed down significantly down the stretch, averaging 4.83 yards per carry on 126 carries in his first 6 games, as opposed to 3.42 yards per carry on 119 carries in his final 8 games.

Mixon has rushed for 7,428 yards and 60 touchdowns on 1,816 carries in his career (4.09 YPC), while averaging a 49/375/2 slash line per 17 games through the game, but he is now heading into his age 29 season with 2,135 career touches, which is a common time for running backs to start declining significantly. With Mixon getting up there in age, the Texans used a 4th round pick on Woody Marks to potentially replace him long-term. Marks is likely to begin his career as the third string running back though, as the Texans already have a capable backup in Dameon Pierce.

Pierce has seen his carry total decline from 220 to 145 to 40 in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2022, but he has a solid 4.07 yards per carry average in his career, with 3.28 yards per carry coming after contact. He also showed himself capable of being a lead back as a rookie in 2022, when he averaged 4.27 yards per carry on 220 carries with 3.28 yards per carry after contact. He’s pretty useless in passing situations, with 0.76 yards per route run averaged for his career, but he’s a good backup to have on early downs. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see his carry total increase this season if the Texans want to rest Mixon more frequently to keep him fresher as he ages. This isn’t a bad backfield, but none of the Texans’ running backs are game changers.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Texans’ offense was disappointing in 2024, their defense actually played well and was by far the strength of this team. In 2023, they ranked 13th in yards per play allowed and 16th in first down rate allowed and in 2024, they jumped to 4th in yards per play allowed and 3rd in first down rate allowed. A big reason for that success was free agent acquisition Danielle Hunter, who had a 82.7 PFF grade across 766 snaps in the first year of a 2-year, 49 million dollar deal.

That was nothing new for Hunter, who has finished above 70 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, dating back to 2016, including finishes above 80 in four of the past five seasons. In total, he has 93.5 sacks, 65 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 122 games since 2016, including 12 sacks, 13 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate last season, and he’s a high level run defender as well. Hunter is going into his age 31 season in 2025, so he could start to decline, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2025, he will likely remain at least an above average starter.

Hunter makes up a dominant edge defender duo with Will Anderson, the 3rd overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, who had an impressive rookie season, winning Defensive Rookie of the Year on the strength of 7 sacks, 14 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate, and a 81.8 PFF grade across 629 snaps and then he was even better in his second season in the league in 2024, finishing with a 85.1 PFF grade across 561 snaps and totaling 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate. Still only going into his age 24 season in 2025, Anderson may not have reached his peak yet and looks like to be one of the best edge defenders in the league for years to come. He could play at a Defensive Player of the Year caliber level this season.

With a duo like Hunter and Anderson leading the way, the Texans don’t have much need for depth, but they have at least one good option. Derek Barnett is not much of a pass rusher, with a career 9.8% pressure rate and just a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but he’s an above average run defender who can be useful in a situational role. He’s finished above 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all but one of his eight seasons in the league, including four seasons above 70 and run defense grades of 80.1 and 72.6 over the past two seasons respectively. He played 390 snaps last season and I would expect a similar role from him in 2025.

Denico Autry has been a useful player for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in 9 of 11 seasons in the league, while averaging 566 snaps per season, but he fell to a 56.0 PFF grade across just 314 snaps last season and now heads into his age 35 season, so he might not even be a useful depth player at this point in his career. He’ll compete for a reserve role with 2023 4th round pick Dylan Horton, who has played 387 nondescript snaps in his career, but could have upside, and free agent acquisition Darrell Taylor, a 2020 2nd round pick who has never finished above 60 on PFF in overall grade for a season, but who has at least been useful as a situational pass rusher, with a career 10.7% pressure rate, including a 13.8% pressure rate last season. Overall, this is a great edge defender group, led by Anderson and Hunter.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

The weak spot on this defense was the interior defender position, where the Texans didn’t have a single player finish with higher than a 60 grade on PFF. All four of the Texans top interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season all return and could play similar roles. Tim Settle led this position group with 625 snaps played in 17 games and finished with a 57.6 PFF grade. He was an effective pass rusher, with 5 sacks, 4 hits, and a 9.4% pressure rate, but struggled mightily with a 42.6 run defense grade. This has largely been the case for him throughout his 7-year career, as he has finished above 60 in run defense grade just once, but has a decent 7.7% pressure rate for his career.

Now in his age 28 season, Settle likely is who he is at this stage of his career and should remain an effective pass rusher who struggles against the run this season. Mario Edwards ranked second with 466 snaps played in 13 games and he is a similar player to Settle. He has a 8.5% pressure rate for his career, including a 8.1% pressure rate last season, but has finished below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in four of the past six seasons. Now going into his age 31 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if his pass rush declined as well.

Folorunso Fatukasi was the worst of the bunch with a 33.7 PFF grade across 308 snaps in 11 games. He’s had better years in the past, finishing above 60 on PFF in four of the previous five seasons prior to last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as bad in 2025 as he was in 2024, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days are probably behind him at this point and he could easily continue being a liability. Kurt Hinish could also remain in the mix for snaps, despite finishing with PFF grades of 49.5, 40.0, and 56.2 on snap counts of 435, 465, and 231 in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2022.

The Texans did add Sheldon Rankins to the mix this off-season, but it’s unclear how much that will help. Rankins is returning to Houston, where he played in 2023 and if the Texans get the 2023 version of him, that will be a big boost, as he struggled against the run, but was a dominant pass rusher with 6 sacks, 4 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. However, Rankins had a 55.3 PFF grade and was limited to 287 snaps in seven games with the Bengals last season due to an illness. Availability has consistently been an issue for him, as he has missed 32 games in nine seasons in the league, with at least four games missed in four of those seasons. Now heads into his age 31 season, so his best days could be behind him, but there is a scenario in which he is a useful player for them at a position of need in 2025. Overall, this is still an underwhelming position group.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

Another big addition the Texans made to their defense last off-season was linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. He was limited to 573 snaps in 11 games, primarily by a suspension for repeated personal fouls, but he had a 70.9 PFF grade when he did play. Al-Shaair has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons, but last season was his career best PFF grade, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he regressed at least a little bit this season, but the flip side of that is he is likely to be available for more games and play more snaps this season.

Al-Shaair started next to Henry To’oTo’o, who improved significantly from 2023 to 2024. A 2023 5th round pick, To’oTo’o struggled during his rookie season with a 42.7 PFF grade across 435 snaps, but he improved to about a league average starter in 2024, with a 60.9 PFF grade across 830 snaps. It’s possible he could regress in 2025, but it’s also possible he has permanently turned the corner and will remain at least a capable starter, potentially with the upside to get even better in his third season in the league.

The Texans actually didn’t miss Al-Shaair that much when he was out last season because reserves Neville Hewitt and Jake Hansen finished the season with PFF grades of 70.2 and 78.2 respectively across snap counts of 342 and 135 respectively. Hewitt wasn’t brought back this off-season, but Hansen remains. He has only played 383 snaps in three seasons in the league and went undrafted in 2022, but he’s shown a lot of promise in limited action, with PFF grades of 69.1, 74.8, and 78.2 across his three seasons in the league.

The Texans also added EJ Speed in free agency this off-season to further bolster their depth and they have 2022 3rd round pick Christian Harris set to return from an injury plagued 2024 season in which he played just 172 snaps in three games. Speed has played 56.2 snaps per game while starting 26 of 31 games played over the past two seasons and has generally been a marginal starter, with PFF grades of 65.0 and 56.4 respectively. Now in Houston, it’s unlikely he will remain an every down player, but he should still be a useful situational run stuffer, having received run defense grades of 82.8, 78.8, and 71.5 from PFF over the past three seasons respectively, and if To’oTo’o regresses, Speed would likely be the Texans’ first option to replace him as an every down player.

Harris, meanwhile, was a decent starter in 2023 with a 60.1 PFF grade across 755 snaps, but he also had a 28.3 PFF grade across 711 snaps as a rookie in 2022 and had a 40.0 PFF grade across 172 snaps last season, so he is probably not returning to a starting role in a linebacking corps that is even deeper that it was last season. Overall, this is not a spectacular group, but they have plenty of depth and options and could be an above average group overall.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Texans also got better cornerback play in 2024 than they did in 2023, due to impressive play from second round pick Kamari Lassister and a breakout year by slot cornerback Jalen Pitre, who converted from safety. Lassister had a 70.0 PFF grade across 799 snaps in 14 games, while Pitre had a 73.9 PFF grade across 660 snaps, after the 2022 2nd round pick had middling grades of 57.1 and 61.6 on snap counts of 1,088 and 904 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Lassister will likely remain an above average starter in 2025 and has the upside to be even better, while Pitre has some regression potential, but could have permanently turned a corner and could remain an above average player in his second season at his new position.

Derek Stingley will remain the top cornerback. He didn’t have quite as good of a season in 2023 as he did in 2024, falling from a 81.8 PFF grade to a 73.9 PFF grade, but he played all 17 games, as opposed to 11 in 2023. Still only going into his age 24 season, Stingley, the third overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, looks likely to be one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come. The one concern with him is injuries as, even though he played in all 17 games last season, he missed 14 in his first two seasons combined and had durability issues as a prospect coming out of college.

The Texans bolstered their cornerback depth this off-season by using a third round pick on Jaylin Smith and signing veteran Ronald Darby. Darby has finished above 60 on PFF in nine of ten seasons in the league, including five seasons above 70, while starting 107 of 118 games he has played, but he’s also missed 46 games in those ten seasons, with four or more games missed in six seasons, and now he’s heading into his age 31 season. He’s good depth to have, but he might not be reliable if forced to start for an extended period of time.

At safety, the Texans lost Eric Murray, who played 857 snaps last season, but he only had a 61.7 PFF grade and the Texans almost definitely upgraded on him by trading for CJ Gardner-Johnson. Gardner-Johnson had a 76.0 PFF grade across 907 snaps last season and, while that was a career best, he’s not a one-year wonder, finishing above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three seasons above 70. Durability has been his biggest issue, as he has missed 26 games across those six seasons, but, as long as he is healthy, he should be an above average starter, still only in his age 28 season.

Gardner-Johnson will likely start next to Calen Bullock. Bullock struggled with a 52.3 PFF grade across 977 snaps last season, but the 2024 3rd round pick could be better in his second season in the league. The alternative is Jimmie Ward, who is extremely proven, with PFF grades above 70 in five of the past six seasons, including a 76.1 PFF grade in 2024, but he is now going into his age 34 season and could decline significantly in 2025. He’s also been very injury prone throughout his career, missing 54 games in 11 seasons in the league, including 7 last season, when he was limited to just 461 snaps played. He’ll probably be a reserve this season, but he’s at least versatile, capable of playing safety and slot cornerback, he is likely to at least have a situational sub package role, and he could still have another solid year left in the tank in a reduced role. This is a solid secondary overall.

Grade: B+

Kickers

Ka’imi Fairbairn was a slightly below average kicker last season, with 1.48 points below average. He was above average on field goals of 50+, making 13 of 17, and on field goals of 40-49, making 6 of 7, but he also missed three extra points and three kicks from inside 40 yards. Overall, he’s been a slightly above average kicker in his career, accumulating 9.09 points above average in eight seasons in the league. I would expect him to be somewhere around average again in 2025, still in the prime of his career in his age 31 season.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Texans’ offense disappointed last season due to regression from quarterback CJ Stroud, injuries to their receiving corps, and poor play on the offensive line. Their receiving corps should be better this year, but their offensive line looks likely to be worse and their running game could easily be worse as well. This is still the best team in the AFC South by default, but they have a tough schedule and I wouldn’t consider them true contenders in the AFC.

Update: After some re-analysis of the other teams in the AFC South, the division is way more wide open than I originally thought and, while the Texans are still the best team, it is not by a wide margin and they have by far the toughest schedules in the division.

Prediction: 6-11, 4th in AFC South

Dallas Cowboys 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 13, 2025September 2, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Quarterback

In 2024, the Cowboys fell to a 7-10 record, after going 12-5 the previous season. At first glance, it’s easy to blame injuries to key players as the culprit. In some order, the Cowboys’ most important players are quarterback Dak Prescott, top wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, top edge defender Micah Parsons, and top cornerback Da’Ron Bland. Bland got hurt before the season started and didn’t make his debut until week 12 as a result. Parsons got hurt in week 4 and missed 4 games, not returning until week 10. By the time Parsons and Bland returned, Prescott had suffered a season-ending injury in week 9 that cost him the final 9 games of the season. Lamb played most of the season, only missing two games, but he was limited by injury for much of the year and had a down year by his standards as a result.

If all four are healthy all season in 2025, this will be a different team, but it’s also unrealistic to expect any four players to all remain injury free for a full season. The Cowboys should get more out of those four in total in 2025 than they did in 2024, but the Cowboys have a pretty top-heavy roster as a result of recent poor drafting and a lack of money spent in free agency, so a lack of depth when injuries knock out any of their top players is a significant concern.

The Cowboys do rank 11th in average annual value of their roster, which correlates heavily with winning percentage, but 17.9% of their average annual value is quarterback Dak Prescott, whose 60 million dollar annual salary makes him the highest paid quarterback in the league by 5 million annually. Prescott’s cap hit is 50.518 million for the 2025 season, about 18.1% of the total cap, and the only quarterbacks who have won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era (since 1994) with a cap hit that was more than 11% of the salary cap are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers.

Prescott is an important part of this team, but he isn’t an elite level quarterback, completing 66.8% of his passes for an average of 7.56 YPA, 213 touchdowns, and 98 interceptions in nine seasons in the league, good for a QB rating of 98.1 that ranks 11th in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts over the past nine seasons, one spot behind Kirk Cousins. With Prescott making as much as he does, it’s very hard for the Cowboys to surround him with enough talent for the team to compete at the highest level. Prescott is now heading into his age 32 season, so he likely is what he is at this stage of his career and could even start declining soon. His athleticism has already declined noticeably, as he went from averaging 5.07 YPC on 259 carries in his first five seasons in the league to 3.88 YPC on 161 carries over the past four seasons and another significant leg injury won’t help matters.

Prescott has also become increasingly injury prone, missing at least five games due to injury in three of the past five seasons, with 25 games total missed during that stretch. The Cowboys have previously had a solid backup in Cooper Rush to fall back on and he completed 60.7% of his passes for an average of 6.37 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions (83.8 QB rating) in 14 starts across his Cowboys career (9-5 record), but he signed with the Ravens this off-season and was replaced via trade with Joe Milton.

Milton has a higher upside than Rush and he showed that upside in his one start with the Patriots last season, completing 22 of 29 for 241 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions, but that came in a meaningless game against a Bills team that already had their playoff seed locked in and that played backups as a result, so that game isn’t enough for Milton to prove he should have gone higher than the 2024 6th round pick he was a year ago. At the very least, he gives the Cowboys a much lower floor than Rush would have if he has to step in for Prescott in case of injury.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Cowboys actually had a better record without Prescott (4-5) than with him last season (3-5), not because they were actually a better team without him, but because their defense was healthy, Cooper Rush played decently, and their running game was significantly better once they gave the feature back job to Rico Dowdle, who rushed for 833 yards and 2 touchdowns on 176 carries (4.73 YPC) in the Cowboys’ final 10 games, after rushing for 246 yards and no touchdowns on 59 carries (4.17 YPC) prior to that.

We already know that Rush is gone and that their defense isn’t guaranteed to be as healthy in 2025 as they were down the stretch last season, but the Cowboys also opted not to retain Dowdle this off-season and, in his absence, they have one of the worst running back rooms in the NFL. The Cowboys’ completely revamped their running back room this off-season, not bringing any running back who had more than 17 carries last season and adding underwhelming veterans Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders in addition to fifth round pick Jaydon Blue and seventh round pick Phil Mafah.

Williams, a 2021 2nd round pick, showed promise early in his career, averaging 4.43 YPC across 250 carries in the first 21 games of his career, but he tore his ACL midway through his second season in the league and hasn’t looked the same since, averaging just 3.62 YPC across 356 carries in 33 games since returning. Williams is still young, in his age 25 season, so he could still have some potential and, at the very least, he should be a useful pass catcher out of the backfield, with 158 catches in 54 career games and a career 1.23 yards per route run average, but he’s still an underwhelming option overall.

Sanders is also a former second round pick, drafted in 2019. He had an impressive start to his career with the Eagles, rushing for 3,708 yards and 20 touchdowns on 739 carries (5.02 YPC) in his first four seasons in the league, but he couldn’t replicate his success on a much worse offense in Carolina over the past two seasons, averaging 3.46 YPC on 184 carries. Sanders may fare better now with the Cowboys, but he’s going on three years removed from his last productive season and, while the Cowboys’ offensive situation might be better than Carolina’s, it’s not on the same level as Philadelphia’s was when Sanders was at his best. Unlike Williams, he is not a useful pass catcher, with a career 0.88 yards per route run average. Williams will likely be the nominal lead back to start the season, with Sanders as the backup and the rookies having potential to earn roles, even as relatively late picks, in an overall underwhelming position group.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, Ceedee Lamb had a down year by his standards last season due to injuries that he played through. He still had a 101/1194/6 slash line with 2.27 yards per route run on 152 targets in 15 games, but that was a far cry from 2023, when he had a 135/1749/12 slash line and 2.78 yards per route run on 181 targets. Lamb is still only going into his age 26 season and has surpassed two yards per route run and 1,100 total receiving yards in four straight seasons, so, assuming he is healthier, he has as much potential as any receiver in the league going into 2025.

The Cowboys also added George Pickens via trade this off-season, their biggest off-season addition by far and a much needed #2 receiver opposite Lamb. Pickens, a 2022 2nd round pick who is only heading into his age 24 season, has posted slash lines of 52/801/4 on 84 targets, 63/1140/5 on 106 targets, and 59/900/3 on 103 targets in three seasons in the league, with a career 1.83 yards per route run average, despite inconsistent quarterback play. His best attribute is his deep ball ability, as he has caught 42 of 81 targets 20+ yards downfield in his career, turning them into 1,379 yards and 6 touchdowns, compared to just 3 interceptions. He might not have a high volume role in Dallas’ offense opposite Lamb, but he gives this offense another dimension downfield and will help free up space for Lamb underneath.

Pickens will be a huge upgrade over Jalen Tolbert, who finished second on the team with a 49/610/7 slash line last season on 79 targets and was pretty inefficient, with a below average 1.10 yards per route run. Tolbert will likely be the Cowboys’ #3 wide receiver this season and will almost definitely have a much smaller target total. Tolbert was a third round pick in 2022 and, only going into his age 26 season, he may have some untapped potential, but he has only averaged 1.03 yards per route run in his career and there is no guarantee he is any better in 2025 than he was in 2024. Even as a #3 receiver, he is an underwhelming option, but the Cowboys don’t have a better one and having him as the #3 is a lot better than having him as the #2.

Behind their top-3, the Cowboys’ top reserves are likely to be KaVontae Turpin and Jonathan Mingo. Turpin has a career 1.78 yards per route run average, including 2.06 in 2024, but he is a 5-9 153 pound 2022 undrafted free agent who is best as a situational player, which is all he will be in 2025. Jonathan Mingo, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2023 by the Panthers and was acquired by the Cowboys for a fourth round pick at last year’s deadline when they thought they were buying low, but he continued showing nothing in his new home and has averaged just 0.72 yards per route run across his two seasons in the league. He may theoretically still have some untapped upside, but it’s also very possible the Cowboys wasted a mid-round draft pick trying to turn his career around. He might be closer to being left off the final roster in 2025 than cracking the Cowboys’ top-3 wide receivers.

Given the state of the Cowboys wide receiver group last season, tight end Jake Ferguson was second on the team with 86 targets last season and he too was underwhelming, finishing with just a 59/494/0 slash line and 1.27 yards per route run. The 2022 4th round pick will likely see a smaller target share this season and could have some bounce back potential as well. He flashed some promise in a limited role as a rookie, with a 19/174/2 slash line on 22 targets and 1.66 yards per route run, and seemed to break out as the starter in his second season in the league in 2024, turning 102 targets into a 71/761/5 slash line and 1.46 yards per route run, before he took a big step backwards last season, with could have had something to do with an injury he suffered early in the season and played through.

Behind Ferguson, the Cowboys have 2023 2nd round pick Luke Schoonmaker, who took on a bigger role in the passing game in 2024 with Ferguson struggling, going from 369 snaps to 411 snaps, a 8/65/2 slash line to a 27/241/1 slash line, and a 0.62 yards per route run average to a 1.35 yards per route run average. Schoonmaker was originally drafted to be a future starter before Ferguson broke out and, barring Ferguson missing significant time, he will likely remain a only a solid #2 tight end for at least another season, rather than a true 1b to Ferguson’s 1a. With Lamb and Ferguson likely bouncing back from injury plagued down seasons in 2024 and George Pickens being added, the Cowboys’ receiving corps has a clear path to being a lot better in 2025.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

One of the Cowboys’ best players for years has been right guard Zack Martin, but the likely future Hall of Famer opted to retire this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 35 season. Martin was not nearly what he used to be last season, with just a 65.6 PFF grade in 10 starts, but he could still be missed. The Cowboys used their first round pick to replace him, taking Alabama’s Tyler Booker, who appears to be a massive reach as the 12th overall pick.

Booker had by far the lowest relative athletic score of any player drafted in the first two rounds and was not a particularly dominant college player either, ranking 126th among guards on PFF in 2024 and 28th in 2023. Between his lack of athleticism and lack of elite tape, Booker only earned a second round grade from PFF and he’s unlikely to be a significant upgrade on Martin as a rookie, even with Martin not anywhere near his best last season.

Booker is the second straight first round pick the Cowboys have used on their offensive line, taking left tackle Tyler Guyton in last year’s draft and Guyton’s career has not gotten off to a good start, as he finished his rookie year with a terrible 49.4 PFF grade, in large part due to his 18 penalties, tied for second most in the NFL. He has the upside to be a lot better in his second season in the league, but he has a long way to go to even be an average starting left tackle and he could easily continue struggling.

The Cowboys also used a first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on an offensive lineman, Tyler Smith, and at least that pick has worked out. Smith has finished with PFF grades of 71.4, 72.9, and 75.0 in three seasons in the league, while making 47 total starts, with 29 coming at left guard and 18 coming at left tackle. The Cowboys prefer him at left guard, where he has been slightly better in his career, but his ability to move out to left tackle in a pinch is an added bonus.

Center Cooper Beebe is not a former first round pick, but he is also a young, recent draft pick, selected in the third round in 2024. Beebe started all but one game as a rookie and, while he wasn’t spectacular, he held his own, with a PFF grade of 65.4. Now going into his second season in the league, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward and, at the very least, he should continue being at least a capable starter.

Right tackle Terence Steele is the veteran of the bunch, going into his sixth season in the league. Steele wasn’t drafted in 2020, but has still made 74 starts in five seasons in the league. He’s been inconsistent, finishing in the 50s on PFF twice (2020, 2023), in the 60s twice (2021, and 2024), with a career best 73.9 PFF grade coming in 2022. It’s tough to know what to expect from him in 2025, but he has generally averaged out as a solid starter and, still going into his age 28 season, he’s still in the prime of his career, so there is at least a good chance he’ll be a solid starter.

The Cowboys’ top reserves last season were Brock Hoffman and TJ Bass, who had PFF grades of 66.3 and 63.0 respectively across 515 snaps and 315 snaps respectively, primarily at guard, with Hoffman showing the ability to also play center if needed. Hoffman and Bass are recent undrafted free agents, 2022 and 2023 respectively, and last season was the first time either had finished above 60 on PFF in their careers, so they could struggle if forced into significant action, but they’re not bad reserve options. The Cowboys also added 2021 undrafted free agent Robert Jones in free agency and he has mostly been a marginal starter in 29 starts over the past three seasons. He will also provide depth on the interior and might be a better option than Hoffman or Bass because of his added experience.

At tackle, the top reserve option is likely Asim Richards, a 2023 5th round pick who has played 221 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league. He’s an underwhelming option, but he is probably the best they have unless 6th round rookie Ajani Cornelius can exceed expectations in his first season in the league. Overall, this looks like an underwhelming offensive line, but they at least have some young players with potential, the majority of whom are recent high draft picks.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Cowboys were without top edge defender Micah Parsons for four games last season, which was a big absence. A capable, but unspectacular run stopper who dominates as a pass rusher, Parsons has totaled 52.5 sacks, 64 hits, and a 19.0% pressure rate in 63 career games, including 12.5 sacks, 13 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate in just 13 games last season, leading to him receiving overall PFF grades of 89.8, 91.6, 92.7, and 90.0 in four seasons in the league, despite his middling play against the run.

Parsons is still only in his age 26 season, so he should remain one of the top defensive players in the league for years to come and seems likely to win a Defensive Player of the Year Award at some point, having finished in the top-3 in DPOY voting in all three healthy seasons in the league. Having him healthy for all or most of the season would be a boost for this defense and it seems likely that will happen, as he had only missed one game in his career prior to last season.

The rest of the edge defender group is much more of a question mark. For the first three seasons of his career, Parsons had the talented DeMarcus Lawrence opposite him, but he missed all but four games last season, leaving an uninspiring group behind in his absence, and then he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season. The Cowboys also didn’t retain free agent Chauncey Golston, hybrid edge defender/interior defender who played 790 snaps last season and was decent with a 65.3 PFF grade, nor did they retain Carl Lawson, a pure edge player who had a mediocre 59.7 PFF grade across 402 snaps.

To replace them, the Cowboys signed veteran Dante Fowler, used a second round pick on Boston College’s Donovan Ezeiruaku, and are hoping to get more out of 2022 2nd round pick Sam Williams, who missed all of last season with injury, and 2024 2nd round pick Marshawn Kneeland, who was limited to 255 snaps in 11 games by injury and struggled with a 50.8 PFF grade as a rookie last season. Williams probably has the most upside of the bunch if he is past his injury, as he flashed potential with PFF grades of 70.9 and 68.5 on snap counts of 274 and 306 in his first two seasons in the league before missing last season, totaling 8.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.6% pressure rate despite a very limited role, though his recent injury history and his relative lack of experience are still concerns.

Ezeiruaku and Kneeland also have upside, but haven’t proven anything at the NFL level yet, with Ezeiruaku being a rookie and Kneeland being a second player who struggled in an injury plagued rookie season. The veteran Fowler has had some success in his career, with 37.5 sacks, 31 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate in 95 games over the past seven seasons combined, but he has been inconsistent and he now heads into his age 31 season, so it is hard to depend on him to play at an above average level.

Fowler did have 10.5 sacks last season with the Commanders, but his peripheral pass rush numbers weren’t as good, as he had just 4 hits and a 12.9% pressure rate, and he struggled against the run, leading to just a 62.1 PFF grade overall across 563 snaps. Getting a healthier season out of Parsons will be a boost for this defense and Parsons elevates the overall grade of this position group significantly by himself, but the rest of the group lacks any clear above average players.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Cowboys made the smart decision this off-season to keep one of their best defensive players Osa Odighizuwa on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal, making him only the 16th highest paid interior defender in the league and notably paying him significantly less than the less-proven Milton Williams (4-year, 104 million) got from the Patriots as a free agent this off-season. Odighizuwa almost definitely would have surpassed Williams’ contract had he been allowed to hit the open market, so the Cowboys got a relatively bargain by locking up Odighizuwa ahead of free agency.

Odighizuwa consistently struggles against the run, finishing below 60 on PFF in run grade in three of four seasons in the league, including a 50.8 run defense grade last season, but he has also exceeded 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all four seasons, including three straight seasons above 70. In total, he has accumulated 13.5 sacks, 39 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 67 career games, including 11.5 sacks, 32 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 51 games over the past three seasons and 4.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate in 17 games last season.

Odighizuwa’s run struggles have led to him finishing above 70 in overall grade just once in four seasons in the league, with a 81.4 overall PFF grade in 2023 in his one season above 60 against the run, but he’s still a valuable player because of his effectiveness as a pass rusher and, only in his age 27 season, having missed just one game due to injury in his career, I would expect him to remain a high level interior pass rusher for at least a few more years.

Unfortunately, the Cowboys also lack depth at the interior defender position, even more than they do on the edge. The Cowboys used a first round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Mazi Smith, but he has been a massive disappointment, finishing with PFF grades of 49.8 and 34.8 across snap counts of 304 and 524 over his first two seasons in the league. He still has upside, only going into his age 24 season, but he would have to take a big step forward to even be an average starting caliber player in 2025, which is far from a guarantee.

Smith is likely locked into a starting role though, because the alternatives are mediocre veteran Solomon Thomas, 2024 7th round pick Justin Rogers, who didn’t play a snap as a rookie, and a pair of 7th round picks from this year’s draft Jay Toia and Tommy Akingbesote. Thomas will likely replace Chauncey Golston as a situational pass rusher, but he is a big downgrade, finishing below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, struggling mightily against the run, but not excelling as a pass rusher either, with 18.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 7.2% pressure rate in 115 career games.

Now going into his age 30 season, Thomas is unlikely to be better in 2025 and could be even worse if he starts to decline due to his age. The Cowboys interior defender group is similar to their edge defender group in that they have one top player who plays at a much higher level than the rest of the bunch, but that top player Odighizuwa is not nearly as good as Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ other interior defender options are also significantly worse than the Cowboys’ other edge defender options.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Cowboys’ top linebacker last season was Eric Kendricks, who had a 75.2 PFF grade across 918 snaps, but Kendricks was heading into his age 33 season in 2025 and the Cowboys opted not to retain him this off-season. Instead, he will be replaced by trade acquisition Kenneth Murray, who figures to be a clear downgrade. Murray was a first round pick in 2020 and has played 765 snaps per season in his career, but he has consistently struggled, with PFF grades below 60 in all five seasons, including a 45.9 PFF grade across 815 snaps in 2024. Murray is already in his age 27 season, so he probably is who he is at this stage of his career and it’s unlikely he will suddenly show why he was a first round pick, now in his sixth season in the league.

The Cowboys’ second best linebacker last season was DeMarvion Overshown, who had a 61.1 PFF grade across 708 snaps in 13 games, before a brutal season ending knee injury. Overshown, a 2023 3rd round pick, also missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury and now his 2025 season seems in doubt after his latest injury. He could still return mid-season, but that’s far from a guarantee and he might not be the same player immediately upon his return. In Overshown’s absence, the Cowboys will probably start Marist Liufau, a 2024 3rd round pick who started as a rookie in Overshown’s absence down the stretch last season, struggling with a 49.4 PFF grade across 520 snaps.

Liufau could be better in his second season in the league, but has a long way to go to even be an average starter. If the Cowboys choose to bench Liufau, their other options are Damone Clark, Jack Sanborn, and Shemar James. A 2022 5th round pick, Clark started in 2023 and did a decent job, with a 61.8 PFF grade across 782 snaps, while also playing pretty well in limited roles in 2022 and 2024, with PFF grades of 65.5 and 68.2 respectively on snap counts of 398 and 163 respectively, so he would probably do a better job than Liufau, but the Cowboys seemed hesitant to use Clark last season, even after Overshown got hurt, so Liufau is probably the favorite over him for the starting job.

Jack Sanborn, meanwhile, is a 2022 undrafted free agent who has been decent as a reserve in his career, but has only played 977 snaps total in three seasons in the league, while Shemar James is just a fifth round rookie. The Cowboys don’t have bad depth options at least, but their likely starting linebacker duo of Kenneth Murray and Marist Liufau is very underwhelming and, even if DeMarvion Overshown is able to play next season, he might not be 100% upon his return.

Grade: C

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Cowboys should get a healthier year out of cornerback Daron Bland, who missed all but the final seven games of last season due to an injury he suffered before the season started. Bland was one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2023, with a 90.4 PFF grade and, even if he’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at that level, the 2022 5th round pick also had a 71.9 PFF grade across 597 snaps in a part-time role as a rookie and a 70.1 PFF grade across 436 snaps after returning from injury last season, so he comes with a pretty high floor, in addition to having a huge ceiling if he can regain his 2023 form. Only in his age 26 season, he is one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

Unfortunately, the rest of this cornerback depth chart is a big problem. Jourdan Lewis had a 71.7 PFF grade across 871 snaps last season, but was not retained in free agency. Trevon Diggs struggled with a 56.6 PFF grade across 683 snaps last season and now his 2025 season is in question due to knee surgery. Diggs led the NFL with 17 interceptions from 2020-2022, the first three seasons of his career, but he also gave up a lot of big plays and only had PFF grades of 62.7, 59.6, and 66.9 as a result, and then he missed almost all of 2023 with a knee injury before struggled in 2024 and reaggravating his knee down the stretch. Even if he can play some or all of the 2025 season, I don’t expect a big year out of him.

In the absence of Lewis and potentially Diggs, the Cowboys’ other cornerbacks options are holdovers Caelen Carson, Israel Mukuamu, Josh Butler, and Andrew Booth, who all struggled mightily in limited roles last season and who would almost definitely struggle in a bigger role in 2025, as well as third round rookie Shavon Revel and former first round pick bust Kaiir Elam, who the Cowboys took a flier on via trade with the Bills this off-season.

Carson was a 5th round pick in 2024 and struggled mightily with a 39.7 PFF grade across 252 snaps as a rookie. Mukuamu is a 2021 6th round pick who has played just 452 snaps in four seasons in the league, including a career high 201 last season, when he had a 48.5 PFF grade. Butler is a 2023 undrafted free agent who had a 49.9 PFF grade in the first 160 snaps of his career last season. Andrew Booth was a second round pick by the Vikings in 2024, but has been limited to 374 snaps in three seasons due to a combination of injury and poor performance and last season he had a 35.6 PFF grade across 116 snaps.

Revel is probably the best option of the bunch, as he could have been a first round pick if he didn’t tear his ACL during his final collegiate season, but between the knee injury he is returning from and the fact that he’s a rookie, he is a shaky option for the Cowboys in 2025. Elam had his moments last season with a 70.2 PFF grade across 305 snaps, but he has largely been unable to crack the Bills depth chart in three seasons in the league, despite being a high draft pick, playing 939 snaps in total in three seasons in the league, and he struggled in both 2022 and 2023, with PFF grades of 56.7 and 58.8, before showing some signs of life in 2024. Only in his age 24 season, he was a worthwhile flier for the Cowboys to take this off-season, but it’s hard to depend on him as a starter in 2025.

Fortunately, the Cowboys do have a better situation at safety. Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker both made all 17 starts last season and had decent PFF grades at 62.2 and 65.3 respectively. That was actually a down year for both players. For Wilson, it was the lowest grade of the 2019 6th round pick’s 6-year career. In 2020, 2022, and 2023, which were the other seasons in his career in which he made 10 or more starts, he finished with PFF grades of 72.0, 71.3, and 66.2 respectively. Wilson is now going into his age 30 season, so his best days could be behind him, but he has a good chance to at least remain a capable starter and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he bounced back somewhat from last year’s down season, as he isn’t totally over the hill yet.

For Hooker, last season was his lowest graded season that wasn’t significantly affected by injury. Hooker was very injury prone early in his career, as the 2017 1st round pick missed 28 games in his first four seasons, but he has only missed four over the past four seasons and he had PFF grades of 70.4, 76.2 and 77.4 in 2021, 2022 and 2023, before struggling by his standards in 2024. Hooker is still only in his age 29 season, so he has a better chance to bounce back than Wilson, though his injury history is at least worth noting, even if it hasn’t really been an issue for him lately.

The Cowboys also have some promising reserve options at safety. Juanyeh Thomas, a 2022 undrafted free agent, flashed a lot of potential with a 81.1 PFF grade across 192 snaps in 2023, before falling to a 56.1 PFF grade and only playing 93 snaps last season. He’s very inexperienced and is a former undrafted free agent, but there may still be some upside there. Markquese Bell is also a 2022 undrafted free agent. He was weirdly converted from an impressive coverage linebacker in 2023, when he had a 76.8 PFF grade across 701 snaps, to an underwhelming, lightly used reserve safety in 2024, when he had a 51.6 PFF grade across 34 snaps. Linebacker is probably still his best position, but the Cowboys seem committed to keeping him at safety and it’s possible he has some upside there too. The Cowboys may use three safeties together more frequently in 2025 than they did in 2024 to try to mask their lack of depth at cornerback.

Grade: B

Kickers

The Cowboys at least have one of the best kickers in the league, as Brandon Aubrey has finished 5th and 9th among kickers with 8.82 points above average and 7.06 points above average in two seasons in the league. Only four kickers have more points above average over the past two seasons combined. He was an old rookie and is already in his age 30 season, but kickers usually age pretty well and he figures to continue being one of the best kickers in the league for years to come.

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Cowboys should get more out of their four most important players this season, Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, Micah Parsons, and Daron Bland, who all had their 2024 seasons significantly impacted by injury. The Cowboys also added George Pickens in a trade with the Cowboys to give their offense a big boost. Based on that, you might be expecting the Cowboys to take a big step forward in 2025 and be a playoff team again. That is a possibility, but it doesn’t seem likely for a couple reasons.

For one, the Cowboys were even worse than their 7-10 record suggested last season, ranking 28th in both yards per play differential and first down rate differential, so they are starting from a lower base point than most realize. Additionally, it’s unlikely that all four of the Cowboys most important players all stay healthy all season this year and this is a top heavy roster that significantly lacks depth at several positions. This isn’t a bad roster, but I think when all is said and done, there will be at least seven teams better than them in the NFC and they will be left on the outside looking in at a playoff spot as a result.

Update: The Cowboys’ already slim playoff chances have further taken a hit from the surprise Micah Parsons trade.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in NFC East

Minnesota Vikings 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 13, 2025September 4, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Quarterback

The Vikings were the NFL’s surprise team last season. In 2023, the Vikings went just 7-10 and then in the following off-season they lost quarterback Kirk Cousins to free agency and then the quarterback they drafted to replace him, JJ McCarthy, suffered a season-ending injury before the season even began. It didn’t seem like the Vikings were about to have the season they had, but they went on to finish 14-3, led by quarterback Sam Darnold, a journeyman and former bust of a 2018 3rd overall pick, who finally showed why he was taken so high with a breakout campaign in his seventh season in the league. In terms of yards per play differential, the Vikings ranked 9th at +0.31 and in first down rate differential they ranked 6th at +2.72%.

In some ways, the Vikings’ surprise 2024 season shouldn’t have been that surprising. The Vikings did not have an impressive record in 2023, but they were better than their record suggested, as they finished positive in both first down rate differential (+1.06%) and yards per play differential (+0.35). That was despite Kirk Cousins tearing his achilles and missing the final nine games of the season. The Vikings had a sneaky good roster around the quarterback and, when Sam Darnold had his breakout year, it was the catalyst this team needed to be among the best teams in the league in 2024.

Unfortunately, the Vikings’ season last year ended with a disappointing first round exit in the post-season, when Sam Darnold got exposed against a Rams team that was one of the hottest in the league down the stretch and came the closest of any team in the post-season to beating the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles. With Darnold hitting free agency this off-season, the Vikings opted not to retain him, letting him sign with the Seahawks on a 3-year, 100.5 million dollar deal, deciding instead to stay the course with JJ McCarthy as their long-term franchise quarterback.

The Vikings then used the money they saved by not paying Darnold to be aggressive upgrading the rest of their roster in free agency, which likely was also the original plan when the Vikings opted to draft McCarthy, as having a quarterback on a cheap rookie deal gives a team the flexibility needed to build up the rest of their roster. In terms of average annual value of their roster, which correlates heavily with winning percentage, the Vikings rank 7th, despite having a cheap quarterback on a rookie deal.

Many think the Vikings will take a step back in 2025, as their over/under is only set at 8.5 wins. The Vikings do have a very tough schedule, but the rest of their roster is significantly better than it was last season, going from a good supporting cast to among the best in the NFL, and it’s very possible that Darnold’s success last will prove to largely be the result of the scheme and supporting talent around him that he had last season, which now will benefit the young McCarthy instead. McCarthy obviously gives them a lower floor than what Darnold gave them last season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play similarly well and he probably possesses a higher upside than Darnold does as well.

For the Vikings part, they seem very confident in their young quarterback and his recovery from injury. The Vikings could have opted to either keep Darnold for at least another year or add veteran competition for McCarthy like Aaron Rodgers or at least add a high end backup like Joe Flacco, but instead the biggest quarterback addition they made this off-season was sending a draft pick swap to the Seattle for Sam Howell, a 2022 5th round pick who has a career 77.5 QB rating in 18 career starts. Time will tell if the Vikings made the right decision not adding a better quarterback this off-season, but McCarthy at the very least gives the Vikings a high upside at the quarterback position, while allowing the Vikings to focus their cap space elsewhere in free agency this off-season.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The area the Vikings spent the most resources on this off-season was their offensive line, particularly the interior of their offensive line, which proved to be a significant issue in the Vikings’ playoff loss to the Rams last season. Four players made starts for the Vikings on the interior of their offensive line last season, center Garrett Bradbury, who had a 62.1 PFF grade in 17 starts, left guard Blake Brandel, who had a 55.2 PFF grade in 17 starts, and right guards Ed Ingram and Dalton Risner, who had PFF grades of 54.0 and 67.0 in nine starts and eight starts respectively.

Of those four, only Brandel remains on the roster for 2025 and he will be a backup after all of the Vikings’ off-season additions on the interior of their offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries were added on contracts worth 18 million over 2 years and 87.72 million over 5 years respectively and then the Vikings further added to the interior of their offensive line in the draft, using their first round pick on Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson, who figures to start at left guard. Jackson has the potential to be a solid starter as a rookie and an above average starter long-term.

Ryan Kelly has consistently pretty been an above average center throughout his career, making 121 starts in nine seasons since being a first round pick in 2016, finishing above 60 on PFF in all but one season, with four seasons above 70, including a career best 77.2 PFF grade as recently as 2023. Kelly is going into his age 32 season though, so his best days are probably behind him and, in fact, he did decline to a 67.0 PFF grade in 2024. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him further decline in 2025, but even if he does, there is a good chance he remains at least a capable starter and a likely upgrade over Garrett Bradbury, who was only a marginal starter last season.

Will Fries, on the other hand, is not nearly as experienced, but he’s a lot younger and has a lot higher upside. A 7th round pick in 2021, Fries received PFF grades of 58.4 and 61.2 in his first two seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023 respectively (26 combined starts), but seemed to be on his way to a breakout season in 2024, with a 86.9 PFF grade through five games, before suffering a season ending leg injury. It’s a small sample size for a player who was mediocre at best across a larger sample size the previous two seasons and it’s possible he won’t be the same right away after injury anyway, so Fries comes with a lot of risk, but the upside is obviously there if he can get past his injury and play even close to as well in 2025 as he did at the start of 2024. It also wouldn’t be hard for Fries to be an upgrade over what the Vikings had at guard last season, even if he’s not at his best.

The Vikings could also get better play at tackle in 2025 if left tackle Christian Darrisaw is able to return to form after a season ending torn ACL he suffered seven games into the 2024 season. Darrisaw had a 81.4 PFF grade last season before going down and had PFF grades of 90.3 and 82.4 in 2022 and 2023 as well, so he’s one of the best left tackles in the league when healthy, and he’s only in his age 26 season, so he should be very much in the prime of his career. The Vikings traded for Cam Robinson to replace him mid-season, but he only had a 60.5 PFF grade in 10 starts, so he was an obvious downgrade.

When Darrisaw is healthy, he forms a dominant tackle duo with right tackle Brian O’Neill, who has PFF grades of 78.0, 73.4, 82.7, 74.5, and 80.8 over the past five seasons, while missing just four games due to injury over that stretch. He is going into his age 30 season in 2025, so he could start declining soon, but even if his decline starts in 2025, he will almost definitely remain an above average right tackle and his upside is among the best right tackles in the league.

With Cam Robinson not being retained as a free agent, the Vikings would turn to free agent acquisition Justin Skule if either of their tackles missed time with injury. Skule, a 2019 6th round pick, has only made 17 starts in six seasons in the league, but he has generally been at least solid in the three seasons in which he has made starts in his career, with a 62.3 PFF grade in eight starts in 2019, a 45.4 PFF grade in 4 starts in 2020, and a 69.2 PFF grade in 5 starts last season, though he would obviously be a big downgrade if forced to start for an extended period of time. Blake Brandel, meanwhile, will be the primary reserve on the interior and he has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in the league since being selected in the 6th round in 2020, so he’s a very underwhelming reserve option. Depth is a concern, but the Vikings have the potential to have one of the best starting five offensive lines in the league next season.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The strength of the Vikings’ offense last season was their receiving corps, led by Justin Jefferson, who is one of the top wide receivers in the league. Jefferson finished last season with a 103/1533/10 slash line, a 87.2 PFF grade, and 2.50 yards per route run, which actually constituted a down year for him, as he had finished above 90 in PFF in each of his first four seasons in the league prior to last season, while exceeding his 2.50 yards per route run average in all four seasons. In total, Jefferson has averaged a 109/1641/9 slash line per 17 games in his career, while missing just seven games total in five seasons in the league. Jefferson is still only going into his age 26 season and his floor and his ceiling are both as high as any wide receiver in the league.

Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ #2 receiver, is not on the same level, but he’s a high-end #2 wide receiver. The 2023 1st round pick had a 70/911/10 slash line with 1.50 yards per route run and a 68.6 PFF grade as a rookie and a 63/875/9 slash line with 1.74 yards per route run and a 73.2 PFF grade last season. In the seven games in his career he has played without Justin Jefferson opposite him, he has 35 catches for 437 yards and 4 touchdowns, which extrapolates to a 85/1061/7 slash line over 17 games. He’s also only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to get even better.

The Vikings also have a great receiving tight end in TJ Hockenson. Hockenson only made his debut in week 9 and played in just 10 games last season, as a result of a torn ACL that he suffered late in the 2023 season, and he probably wasn’t quite at 100%. He still finished with a 41/455/0 slash line and 1.52 yards per route run in that limited action, which extrapolates to a 70/774/0 slash line over 17 games. Hockenson will likely be back to full strength in 2025, only in his age 28 season, another year removed from the injury, and, in his last two seasons before the injury, Hockenson had slash lines of 86/914/6 and 95/960/5 on yards per route run averages of 1.60 and 1.89 respectively. He figures to be among the best receiving tight ends in the league in 2025.

With Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson as their top receiving options, the Vikings don’t need much else from the rest of their receiving corps, but their depth isn’t bad either. Backup tight end Josh Oliver did a decent job in Hockenson’s absence last season, finishing the season with a 1.39 yards per route run average, after averaging 1.50 yards per route run in 2023. Oliver, a 2019 3rd round pick, has always been a great blocker, but he has also developed into a decent receiving option over the past two seasons and, as a result, he has PFF grades of 75.1 and 75.7 on snap counts of 467 and 553 over those two seasons respectively. He won’t be needed for a big role as long as Hockenson is healthy, but he is a high end #2 tight end who can fill in decently as the starter if needed.

Jalen Nailor was underwhelming as the #3 receiver last season, averaging 1.07 yards per route run with a 28/414/6 slash line, but his career average of 1.32 yards per route run in three seasons since being selected in the 6th round in 2022 isn’t bad and the Vikings added competition for him this off-season, using a third round pick on Maryland’s Tai Felton and taking a flier on former 2021 2nd round pick Rondale Moore, who had yards per route run averages of 1.64 and 1.47 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, before falling to 0.73 in 2023 and then missing all of 2024 with injury. He’s not the most reliable option, but, still only going into his age 25 season, he was a worthwhile flier for the Vikings to take this off-season. Led by one of the best receiving trios in the league, the Vikings’ receiving corps is the strength of an overall talented roster.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Vikings also had a strong running game last season, with their top-2 running backs Aaron Jones and Cam Akers averaging 4.46 YPC and 4.64 YPC respectively across 255 carries and 64 carries respectively, despite underwhelming play on the interior of the Vikings’ offensive line. Akers wasn’t brought back this off-season, while Jones is heading into his age 31 season with 1,755 career touches, which makes him a strong candidate to drop off significantly, but the Vikings replaced Cam Akers with Jordan Mason, who figures to be an upgrade and who figures to be capable of taken more of the load away from Aaron Jones, who could remain effective even as he ages if he plays a lesser role.

In total, Aaron Jones has rushed for 7,078 yards and 50 touchdowns on 1432 carries (4.94 YPC) in eight seasons in the league. He’s also a very useful pass catcher, with an average 48/370/3 slash line per 17 games and 1.25 yards per route run averaged for his career. He will remain the Vikings’ primary passing down back because Jordan Mason has never shown any potential in that aspect, averaging just 0.56 yards per route run in his career.

Mason went undrafted in 2022, but he has rushed for 1,253 yards and 7 touchdowns on 236 carries in his career (5.31 YPC), with 153 carries, 789 yards (5.16 YPC), and 3 touchdowns coming last season in 12 games, including six starts when he replaced the injured Christian McCaffrey as the lead back in San Francisco. His skill set also compliments Jones’ skill set well, as he is a bigger, more physical back at 5-11 223, while Jones is a smaller, speedier back at 5-9 208. I expect him to be a 1b to Jones’ 1a, with both running backs rotating heavily.

If either Jones or Mason miss time with injury, the other would likely take on a feature back role, with third string running back Ty Chandler mixing in for a few touches here and there. Chandler began last season as the #2 back, but only averaged 3.25 YPC on 56 carries, leading to the Vikings acquiring Cam Akers mid-season to play ahead of him. Chandler, a 2022 5th round pick, has averaged just 4.04 YPC on 164 carries in three seasons in the league, while averaging 1.07 yards per route run as a receiver. He’s not a bad #3 running back, but the Vikings will almost definitely try to avoid using him in a significant role, even if one of their top-2 backs are injured. Led by a talented duo of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason, this is a solid backfield.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Along with their offensive line, the interior defender position is another spot where the Vikings spent significant money this off-season. This was much needed because all four of the Vikings’ top-4 interior defenders in terms of snaps played last season finished with PFF grades below 60. Harrison Phillips (672 snaps), Jonathan Bullard (571 snaps), Jerry Tillery (467 snaps), and Jihad Ward (467 snaps) finished with PFF grades of 58.8, 56.1, 51.6, and 51.5 respectively.

To try to upgrade this position group in a big way, the Vikings handed out contracts worth 51 million over 3 years and 30 million over 2 years respectively to Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Both Allen and Hargrave have had some big years, but both are on the wrong side of 30, going into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively, and both are coming off injury plagued 2024 seasons, limited to 300 snaps in eight games and 104 snaps in three games respectively.

Allen had mostly been durable throughout his career prior to last season, missing just three total games in the previous six seasons combined, despite averaging 49.5 snaps per game, so it seems unlikely he will miss significant time with injury again in 2025. However, Allen also had a down year in 2024 even when on the field, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade as a pass rusher and averaging just a 8.9% pressure rate, which are not bad, but those are disappointing numbers for him, as he had surpassed 75 in PFF pass rush grade in each of the previous four seasons, while totaling 24 sacks, 50 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate in 65 games.

Allen has also never been a good run defender and his run defense has gotten even worse in the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 37.9 and 41.3 against the run in 2023 and 2024 respectively, so the Vikings will need Allen to bounce back as a pass rusher to compensate for his lack of run defense. He’s not totally over the hill though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he did bounce back at least somewhat if he can stay healthy. Hargrave is also a much better pass rusher than run defender, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in each of the past five seasons, while totaling 45.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate in 130 career games, including 35 sacks, 29 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate in 83 games over the past six seasons.

Hargrave still had a 12.7% pressure rate in very limited action last season before getting hurt and he had only missed four total games due to injury in eight seasons in the league prior to last season, so he’s not an injury prone player, but now being another year older and coming off of a significant injury, it’s fair to wonder if he will decline in 2025. Both Allen and Hargrave come with risks, but it wouldn’t be hard for them to be better than the players they are replacing in Minnesota.

Of the Vikings’ top-4 interior defenders last season, only Harrison Phillips returns and he was probably the best of them by default. He also has had better years in the past and, only in his age 29 season, he has some bounce back potential. He’s a better run defender than Allen or Hargrave, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense in three straight seasons prior to last season, including a pair of seasons over 70, but he only has a 5.6% pressure rate in his career, which fell to 4.2% last season. He’s an underwhelming overall option, but he at least has bounce back potential as a run defender and the Vikings won’t be relying on him as their top interior defender anymore.

The Vikings’ best interior defender last season was probably Jalen Redmond, who had a 77.2 PFF grade, especially excelling against the run, but he only played 208 snaps. Redmond is a 2023 undrafted free agent who had never played a snap prior to last season, so he’s very unproven, but he showed a lot of potential last season and 155 of those 208 snaps came in his final seven games of the season, so he earned himself a consistent role as a situational run stopper down the stretch last season and he should carry that into 2025.

Other reserve options for the Vikings including 5th round rookie Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, 2024 7th round pick Levi Drake Rodriguez, who played just 7 snaps as a rookie, and veteran journeyman Jonathan Harris, who has finished above 60 on PFF just once in six seasons in the league and who only played 133 snaps for the Panthers last season, when he had just a 49.0 PFF grade. None of them are likely to have a significant role unless there are significant injuries ahead of them on the depth chart. This interior defender group still has concerns, but overall this looks like a better group than last year, perhaps a much better group if everyone can stay healthy and play at their best.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Vikings’ edge defenders were the strength of their defense last season. Starters Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel finished the season with PFF grades of 80.8 and 70.8 across snap counts of 916 and 920 respectively. Both especially excelled as a pass rusher, with Greenard totaling 12 sacks, 9 hits, and a 15.0% pressure rate and Van Ginkel totaling 11.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate. Both have similar stories, starting out as high level rotational players, breaking out in an every down role in 2023, and then signing with the Vikings last off-season and continuing their high level play in 2024.

Greenard only played 963 total snaps in the first three seasons of his career after being a 2020 3rd round pick, in part due to missing a combined 16 games due to injury, but he showed his promise with a 82.9 PFF grade across 414 snaps in 2021 and then broke out in 2023 with a 78.2 PFF grade across 632 snaps, while totaling 12.5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 11.9% pressure rate. The Vikings signed him to a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal last off-season, making him only the 14th highest paid edge defender in the league in average annual salary, and he proved to be a steal when he had another dominant season as an every down player in 2024. Greenard is still only going into his age 28 season and he seems to have put his injury issues behind him, missing just two games over the past two seasons, so he should continue playing at a high level in 2025.

Van Ginkel, meanwhile, was a 5th round pick in 2019 and played fewer than 500 snaps in three of his first four seasons in the league, but he had a 79.3 PFF grade on 479 snaps in 2020 and a 74.8 PFF grade on 333 snaps in 2022, before breaking out with a 91.1 PFF grade across 727 snaps in 2023, while totaling 6 sacks, 15 hits, and a 16.5% pressure rate. The Vikings got him for only 20 million over 2 years last off-season, which proved to be an even bigger steal than Greenard, and he deservedly got a raise this off-season, when the Vikings added another 1 year and 23 million onto his deal ahead of what would have been his contract year in 2025. Van Ginkel’s age is a minor concern, heading into his age 30 season, but even if he regresses a little bit, he should remain at least an above average every down starter.

The Vikings lost Patrick Jones in free agency and he did have 7 sacks last season in a part-time role, but his peripheral pass rush stats of 4 hits and a 7.6% pressure rate were not nearly as good as his sack total and he finished with only a 55.8 PFF grade across 459 snaps, so he won’t be missed much, especially since the VIkings have 2024 1st round pick Dallas Turner waiting in the wings and ready to play a significant role behind Greenard and Van Ginkel.

Turner got off to a slow start in 2024, with just a 6.3% pressure rate in his first six games, when he played just 85 snaps, but his pressure rate improved to 9.4% from that point on and his playing time increased alongside his improving play, as he played 217 snaps in his last 10 games. Turner figures to have an even bigger role this season and has all the talent to have a second year breakout year. Even if he doesn’t have a big breakout, he figures to be a high end rotational reserve, at the very least.

With Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Turner set to all play heavy snaps, the Vikings don’t have much need for depth outside of their top-3, but they would if any of their top-3 missed time with injury and they don’t really have a good fourth option. Bo Richter and Gabriel Murphy are 2024 undrafted free agents who played 30 nondescript snaps and 35 nondescript snaps respectively as rookies and they are really the only other options the Vikings have on the roster. Still, given how talented the Vikings’ top-3 are, their lack of depth beyond them is only a minor concern.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Vikings also got a great free agent value last off-season with Blake Cashman, who was signed to a 3-year, 22.5 million dollar deal. Cashman, a 2019 5th round pick, played just 609 snaps in his first four seasons in the league, largely due to injuries that cost him 36 games total in those four seasons, and he was never more than a middling player when he was on the field, so it came as a shock when he had a 83.7 PFF grade in 2023 and it was fair to wonder if he would continue that level of play, especially since he again missed another three games due to injury that season.

Cashman wasn’t quite as good in 2024, but he still had an above average 71.6 PFF grade, while playing a career high 894 snaps. Still only going into his age 29 season, with back-to-back above average seasons under his belt, it seems likely Cashman will remain an above average starter in 2025, though it’s worth noting that even with his career high in snaps last season, he still missed three games, so he remains an injury prone player who is likely to miss time again at some point this season.

Cashman will start next to Ivan Pace, who also had a surprisingly good season in 2023, when he had a 77.1 PFF grade across 704 snaps despite being an undrafted rookie. Pace wasn’t quite as good in 2024, but he still had a decent 64.6 PFF grade, though he was limited to 412 snaps in 11 games. Pace should play more in 2025, not just because he probably won’t miss as much time with injury, but because the Vikings don’t have the safety depth they had last season and probably won’t use three safeties at the same time in sub packages as much as they did last season, which I will talk more about later. Pace showed he was capable of playing close to an every down role in 2023, so he should be able to handle the higher snap count. He and Cashman should at least be a solid linebacker duo.

The Vikings also upgraded their linebacker depth this off-season. Kamu Grugier-Hill was the Vikings third linebacker last season and he was terrible, finishing with a 36.4 PFF grade across 182 snaps and barely seeing action even when Cashman or Pace missed time with injury. The Vikings didn’t bring him back this off-season and instead replaced him with veteran Eric Wilson. A 9-year veteran, Wilson struggled in the one season in his career in which he played an every down role, finishing with a 53.5 PFF grade across 1,034 snaps in 2020, but he finished with grades in the 60s in each of his next three highest snap totals in his career, with a 62.7 PFF grade across 336 snaps in 2018, a 67.6 PFF grade across 380 snaps in 2019, and a 65.8 PFF grade across 556 snaps last season. Wilson is heading into his age 31 season, but barring a massive dropoff, he’s a good insurance option to have. The Vikings additionally added another linebacker Kobe King in the 6th round of the draft to give themselves additional depth. With a solid starting duo and capable depth, the Vikings have an above average linebacker group.

Grade: B+

Secondary

As I mentioned, the Vikings aren’t as deep at safety this season. Last season, Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, and Josh Metellus all essentially played every down roles last season, with one of them, most typically Metellus, essentially serving either as the slot cornerback or as a linebacker, depending on the situation. Those three finished the season with snap counts of 1,009, 1,028, and 990 respectively and all three were solid, with PFF grades of 66.2, 63.0, and 67.6 respectively.

This off-season, Bynum signed with the Colts without being replaced. Making matters worse, Harrison Smith is going into his age 36 season and is clearly on the decline. He has seen his PFF grade decline in four straight seasons and his PFF grade last season was the second worst of his 13-year career, which has featured nine seasons above 70 on PFF and five seasons above 80. Smith could easily continue declining in 2025 and it wouldn’t surprise to see him be a liability.

Metellus could remain a solid starter, but versatility is a big part of his value and his game could suffer if the Vikings’ lack of safety depth gives him fewer opportunities to play other positions this season. Metellus was only a 6th round pick in 2020, but he has far exceeded his draft position. He first flashed potential in his third season in the league in 2022, when he had a 85.1 PFF grade across 259 snaps, after playing just 70 snaps combined in his first two seasons in the league. He hasn’t quite been that good in an every down role over the past two seasons, but he had a 69.2 PFF grade across 1,063 snaps in 2023, before having a similar season again in 2024. Still only in his age 27 season, he could have another similar season again in 2024, but his role will probably be different and that could hurt his effectiveness.

Theo Jackson was the Vikings’ fourth safety last season and he will probably see at least a situational role this season. The 2022 6th round pick has only played 221 snaps in three seasons in the league, including just 78 last season, but he has shown potential, with PFF grades of 85.0, 67.6, and 79.2. He’s a projection to a larger role and is unlikely to see anywhere near as big of a role as Camryn Bynum had last season, but he’s not a bad third safety option and he clearly has upside.

The Vikings also lost a pair of cornerbacks this off-season, not bringing back Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin, who had PFF grades of 63.9 and 64.3 respectively, across snap counts of 860 and 572 respectively. They should be in decent shape to replace them though. To replace one of them, Mekhi Blackmon is likely to take over as a starter. The 2023 3rd round pick flashed potential with a 71.8 PFF grade across 434 snaps as a rookie and was set to be a starter last season until he suffered a season-ending injury before the season even started. Blackmon is still unproven and coming back from a major injury complicates his development, but he has plenty of upside and could easily prove to be at least a solid starter.

The Vikings also signed Isaiah Rodgers, who has shown a lot of potential in part time roles in his career, finishing with a 70.7 PFF grade across 525 snaps in 2021, a 82.1 PFF grade across 434 snaps in 2022, and a 76.0 PFF grade across 329 snaps last season, with a 2023 season lost to suspension in between. He’s a projection to a larger role, but even if he isn’t quite as good in a larger role as he was in a part-time role, he could still easily be an above average player.

The Vikings did bring back top cornerback Byron Murphy, re-signing him on a 3-year, 54 million dollar deal, after he had a 72.8 PFF grade last season. Murphy had never had a season that good before and it came in his sixth season in the league, after finishing below 60 on PFF in three of his first five seasons in the league, so it’s possible last season could prove to be a fluke, but he’s also still only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible last season could prove to be a lasting breakout season for the 2019 2nd round pick.

For depth, the Vikings signed veteran Tavierre Thomas, Jeff Okudah, and Ambry Thomas this off-season. Thomas only played 46 snaps last season, but in his three previous seasons he had PFF grades of 77.6, 70.0, and 72.2 on snap counts of 639, 409, and 352 respectively, primarily as a slot cornerback, and he should be able to fill in as a solid slot specialist if needed. Okudah was once the third overall pick in the draft and is still only going into his age 26 season, but he’s finished below 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, while missing 40 games due to injury and averaging just 394 snaps per season. He was a worthwhile flier for the Vikings to take, but I wouldn’t expect much from him.

Ambry Thomas was a 3rd round pick in 2021 and had a 71.5 PFF grade across 482 snaps in 2023, but that is his only season above 60 on PFF in his career and he’s played just 375 snaps in his other three seasons in the league combined, with none of them coming last season, when he missed the entire season due to injury. Overall, I would say those three reserves are better depth than most teams have and that all three have upside, but there is also a reason they are reserves and were available cheaply this off-season. The Vikings had some off-season losses in the secondary this off-season, but this still looks like at least a decent group overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Vikings used a sixth round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker Will Reichard and he had about a league average first season in the league, accounting for just 0.30 points above average, making 24 of 30 field goals, including 8 of 11 from 50+, while also making all 38 of his extra points. Going into his second season in the league in 2025, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Reichard take a step forward and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect him to at least be a league average kicker once again.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Vikings didn’t bring back quarterback Sam Darnold this off-season, but they took advantage of having JJ McCarthy on a cheap rookie deal and were aggressive in spending money to build up the rest of this roster even further, particularly addressing needs on the interior of their offensive and defensive lines, as well as at running back. The result is a Vikings team that has one of the best rosters in the league outside of the quarterback position.

The quarterback position is the big mystery, with McCarthy coming off of a major injury and having never thrown a pass in the NFL, but he came into the league with a lot of upside and he has a great situation around him, between his supporting cast and the Vikings’ coaching staff. It’s very possible that Darnold’s success last season will prove to largely be the result of the situation he was in and that JJ McCarthy can also have success. That may be a big if, but if that is the case, the Vikings should be considered one of the favorites for the Super Bowl, given the overall talent on this roster. Even if McCarthy isn’t quite as good as Darnold, the Vikings should still compete for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 10-7, 3rd in NFC North

Seattle Seahawks 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 13, 2025July 29, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks

Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Seahawks made a franchise changing decision to trade quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. Wilson had been the Seahawks starting quarterback for ten seasons, made the Pro Bowl in all but one of those seasons, and led back-to-back Super Bowl appearances, including a victory in Super Bowl 48. However, the Seahawks didn’t make a conference championship in any of Wilson’s final seven seasons in Seattle and, after their first losing season in the Wilson era in 2021, with Wilson on the wrong side of 30, the Seahawks felt it was the right time to move on from him, with the team stuck in limbo and the Broncos willing to pay a steep price for acquire him, giving the Seahawks a package of two first round picks, two second round picks, and three players in return. The Seahawks looked like they were entering a full rebuild, but something unexpected happened.

While Wilson struggled in Denver, proving the Seahawks moved on from him at the right time, Wilson’s former backup Geno Smith broke out. Smith was originally not even seen as the favorite to start in 2022, with many expecting it would be young developmental quarterback Drew Lock, who was acquired in the Russell Wilson trade, and then likely a quarterback from the 2023 NFL Draft if Lock couldn’t prove himself. Instead Smith made 49 starts over the next three seasons, completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.41 YPA, 71 touchdowns, and 35 interceptions, while leading the Seahawks to a 27-22 record in those games. It was kind of a best of both worlds situation for the Seahawks, as they remained competitive in the short-term, while building for the long-term, with seven picks combined in the first two rounds of the 2022 and 2023 NFL Drafts.

However, none of those picks were a long-term quarterback of the future and, with Geno Smith heading into his age 35 season and the final year of his contract in 2025, the Seahawks were again at a crossroads. Smith had proven he could be a capable quarterback, but he never won a playoff game and it seemed unlikely he would be the quarterback that could get them back to the Super Bowl. On top of that, he was expecting a significant raise on his new extension, one that would carry him into his late 30s. Further working against Smith getting that extension from the Seahawks was the fact that they had moved on from long-time coach and one of Smith’s biggest supporters Pete Carroll last off-season and replaced him with a much younger coach in Mike Macdonald.

Macdonald kept Smith for 2024, but this off-season the Seahawks decided to hit the reset button again at the quarterback position and sent Smith to his old coach Pete Carroll, now in Las Vegas, for a third round pick. The Seahawks then took the money they could have given to Smith on an extension and gave it to free agent quarterback Sam Darnold, who came to town on a 3-year, 100.5 million dollar deal. Darnold was once a bust as the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, spending his first seven seasons in the league with four different teams, but, like Geno Smith, he seemed to be a late bloomer when he broke out with that fourth team, the Minnesota Vikings, last season, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average of 7.92 YPA, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions (102.5 QB rating).

Darnold is still only going into his age 28 season and, if he continues playing like he did last season, the Seahawks will have replaced Smith with a younger, better quarterback, while getting a relatively high draft pick in the process. However, there are reasons for concern that Darnold may not replicate his 2024 season in his new home. For one, Darnold is still a one-year wonder who, prior to last season, completed 59.7% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 63 touchdowns, and 56 interceptions in 56 career starts (78.3 QB rating).

Much of Darnold’s previous struggles can be blamed on him being in some bad situations, particularly in New York and Carolina, where he made all but one of those 56 starts, but if the situation gets the blame for those struggles, it should also get some of the credit for Darnold’s breakout last season, as Darnold had a great coaching staff and supporting cast on his side in Minnesota. Now in Seattle, the situation probably won’t be as bad as it was in New York or Carolina, but it also probably won’t be nearly as good as it was in Minnesota and, as a result, Darnold could regress somewhat.

The Seahawks also don’t seem totally sold on Darnold either, hedging their bet by using the third round pick they received from the Raiders on Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. Milroe enters the league very raw and might spend his rookie season as the third string quarterback, with the now veteran Drew Lock (78.8 career QB rating in 28 starts) being brought back this off-season after one-year with the Giants, but Milroe is a great athlete with a strong arm who could develop into a starter long-term and Darnold’s contract only guarantees him 37.5 million, making it easy for the Seahawks to move on at any point after this season if he doesn’t live up to his big price tag. Darnold definitely elevates the ceiling of this quarterback room, compared to Geno Smith, but he also lowers the floor significantly.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

Trading away Geno Smith and replacing him with Sam Darnold was not the only franchise changing trade the Seahawks made this off-season, as they opted not to extend talented receiver DK Metcalf ahead of the final year of his contract this off-season and instead traded him to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a second round pick, giving themselves another additional premium draft pick. Metcalf had another solid season for the Seahawks in 2024, with a 66/992/5 slash line on 108 targets, a 74.3 PFF grade (33rd among wide receivers), and 1.81 yards per route run (38th among wide receivers), but he wanted upwards of 30 million annually on his next contract and the Seahawks have another talented receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who will need a long-term extension soon as well.

The Seahawks could have afforded to keep both, but they fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb for being too pass heavy last season (7th in pass attempts, 29th in rush attempts last season) and replaced him with Klint Kubiak, who prefers a more balanced attack, and paying top dollar to two wide receivers did not line up with their new offensive philosophy. The Seahawks instead signed veteran Cooper Kupp to a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal and picked up an extra high draft pick in the process, allowing them to focus money and draft capital on other parts of the roster.

A few years ago, signing Kupp would have been a huge boost to any offense, as Kupp won the receiving triple crown with the Rams in 2021, totaling a 145/1947/16 slash line, averaging 3.12 yards per route run (1st among wide receivers), and receiving a 92.3 PFF grade (2nd among wide receivers). Kupp was on his way to a similar season in 2022, averaging 2.40 yards per route run (8th among wide receivers) and posting a 86.3 PFF grade (7th among wide receivers), but his season lasted just nine games due to injury.

In 2023 and 2024, Kupp was solid, but did not reach the heights he reached in 2021 and 2022, with yards per route run averages of 1.86 and 1.99 respectively and PFF grades of 72.4 and 71.2 respectively, while again missing more time with injury, limited to 12 games each of those two seasons. Perhaps most concerningly, Kupp seemed to be phased out of the offense down the stretch last season, with just a 10/143/0 slash line in his final five games, including two post-season games, and he now heads into his age 32 season.

Kupp is already clearly on the decline, but age 31 to age 32 is the biggest single season drop off in terms of elite production probability. Overall, a 32-year-old wide receiver is about half as likely to top 1000 yards receiving in a season as a 30-year-old wide receiver and about a third as likely as a 28-year-old wide receiver, a steep drop off in a 4-year span. Kupp’s recent injury history doesn’t help matters. The Seahawks are obviously not getting the best of Cooper Kupp and there is a good chance he drops off further and/or misses significant time with injury, so he figures to be a clear downgrade from the much younger, healthier Metcalf.

The Seahawks also moved on from Tyler Lockett, who was a solid #3 receiver last season with a 49/600/2 slash line, but who was going into his age 33 season owed 17 million, making him an easy cap casualty this off-season. The Seahawks don’t have a great option to replace him though. They signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and he figures to be the favorite for the #3 receiver job. He has been decent, but unspectacular throughout his 7-year career, averaging a slash line of 29/509/3 per season with 1.25 yards per route run and now he heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are likely behind him.

As far as #3 receivers go, Lockett was pretty good last season, so Valdes-Scantling figures to be a downgrade. Behind Valdes-Scantling, the Seahawks have Jake Bobo, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has averaged just 1.01 yards per route run in limited action thus far in his career, as well as 5th and 7th round rookies Tory Horton and Ricky White, neither of whom are likely to make a significant impact in year one, leaving Valdes-Scantling as the likely #3 receiver, largely by default.

With the rest of the wide receiver room looking underwhelming, Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be the clear #1 receiver. A first round pick in 2023, Smith-Njigba had a decent rookie year with a 63/628/4 slash line on 93 targets and 1.32 yards per route run and then he took a big step forward in a bigger role in 2024 with a 100/1130/6 slash line on 137 targets and 1.81 yards per route run. Smith Njigba will face more double teams with Metcalf gone and Darnold could prove to be a downgrade under center, so he might not be as efficient as he was a year ago, and, with this offense likely to run the ball more, he might not even see that many more targets, but he also has the talent to take another step forward in his third season in the league, which could help him beat those double teams and help him get to balls that may be less accurate than they were last season.

The Seahawks will also likely lean on their tight ends more this season than they did in 2024. Noah Fant led Seahawks tight ends with a 48/500/1 slash line and 64 targets, but was overall underwhelming. That has largely been the case for him since he arrived in Seattle in the Russell Wilson trade. Fant was a first round pick by the Broncos in 2019 and showed some promise early in his career, but he hasn’t lived up to that promise since arriving in Seattle, averaging just a 43/467/2 slash line and 1.32 yards per route run in three seasons with the Seahawks.

Now going into his age 28 season, it is very likely Fant is who he is at this stage of his career, which, in addition to the Seahawks lack of wide receiver depth, is why the Seahawks opted to add a higher upside tight end option early in the draft, taking Miami’s Elijah Arroyo in the second round. Arroyo may spend his rookie season behind Fant on the depth chart, but the Seahawks figure to use two tight end sets somewhat frequently to offset their lack of depth at wide receiver and, with Fant set to hit free agency next off-season, Arroyo looks like the future starter at tight end for the Seahawks.

The Seahawks also have AJ Barner, a 2024 4th round pick who showed some promise as a rookie, playing 502 snaps in total, but he was more of a blocker than a pass catcher (260 blocking snaps, 242 routes run) and seems likely to enter 2025 as the third tight end on the depth chart. He could still have some upside going forward and his 1.13 yards per route run wasn’t bad for a rookie, but he is unlikely to have a big role in this passing game this season, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. Overall, this remade Seahawks receiving corps will almost definitely be worse than it was a year ago and is not the same caliber of receiving corps as Sam Darnold had in Minnesota.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

The Seahawks’ strategy of changing quarterbacks, downgrading their receiving corps, saving money, and accumulating extra draft picks made some sense if they had used the extra resources to significantly address what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season (26th in pass blocking grade, 24th in run blocking grade on PFF), but the Seahawks didn’t really do that. They didn’t sign a single starting caliber offensive lineman in free agency and mostly rolled their cap savings into next off-season, as they rank just 28th in average annual value of their roster, a metric heavily correlated to winning percentage. The Seahawks did use their first round pick on North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel, a talented guard prospect, but they really needed to use multiple early draft picks on the offensive line, given the state their offensive line was in going into the draft, and they didn’t.

Zabel looks like a future above average starter, but he is just a rookie and it’s possible he is not even an upgrade on departed veteran Laken Tomlinson, who had a decent, but unspectacular 62.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at left guard last season. Center Olusegun Oluwatimi was decent in 8 starts last season with a 64.2 PFF grade, but it might be wishful thinking to expect the 2023 5th round pick to take a step forward in his third season in the league and he might not even be able to translate his decent play in a limited role last season into a season-long role. Connor Williams, who had a 62.9 PFF grade in 9 starts at center last season, is retired, so if Oluwatimi struggles or misses any time with injury, the Seahawks are left with Jalen Sundell, a 2024 undrafted free agent who played 53 snaps as a rookie, as the alternative.

Right guard saw three different players make starts in 2024, Anthony Bradford (10 starts), Sataoa Laumea (6 starts), and Christian Haynes (1 start) and all three struggled mightily with PFF grades of 48.3, 37.9, and 48.5. All three are relatively young, selected in the 4th round in 2023, the 6th round in 2024, and the 3rd round in 2024 respectively, but any of the three would have to take a big step forward to even be a decent starter in 2025 and that seems unlikely. Sixth round rookie Bryce Cabeldue could also be in the mix for the starting right guard job at some point this season, but that says more about the state of the position than anything positive about Cabeldue, who would almost definitely struggle in a significant rookie year role.

Bradford, who also struggled with a 51.7 PFF grade in 11 starts as a rookie in 2023 before continuing to struggle last season, is probably the favorite for the starting right guard job and seems likely to continue struggling. Along with the potential of the rookie Zabel, probably the biggest reason to be optimistic this offensive line can be at least somewhat better this year than a year ago is the potential for better health from right tackle Abraham Lucas, who missed 10 games last season, leaving Stone Forysthe and Mike Jerrell, who finished with PFF grades of 43.1 and 46.4 respectively, to start in his absence.

Lucas also missed 11 games in 2023 and has had PFF grades of just 53.1 and 61.9 over the past two seasons respectively, so the potential for him to struggle and/or miss significant time with injury is there, but the 2022 3rd round pick did have a solid 68.5 PFF grade in 16 starts as a rookie, so the upside is at least there as well. If Lucas misses more time, the Seahawks would likely turn to either Jerrell, a 2024 6th round pick, or veteran Josh Jones, a career backup who has made 24 starts in five seasons in the league, while finishing below 50 on PFF in four of those five seasons. Both would likely struggle if forced into significant action.

The saving grace of this offensive line is left tackle Charles Cross, the 9th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, who has developed into one of the better left tackles in the league. Cross has started 48 games in three seasons in the league, has seen his PFF grade improve from 63.7 to 67.6 to 82.5 last season, and is still only going into his age 25 season, so he has a good chance to continue playing at the level he played at last season, or potentially even a higher level, for years to come.

However, the flip side of that is the Seahawks’ offensive line was horrendous last season even with Cross having a big year, so if he happens to regress even somewhat or, even worse, to miss some time with injury, the Seahawks would be in big trouble upfront. Overall, this offensive line looks likely to be a big problem, especially a concern since Sam Darnold had the third longest time to throw in the league last season and broke out in large part because of that, finishing second in the NFL only behind Lamar Jackson with 25 passing touchdowns on dropbacks of longer than 2.5 seconds.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Seahawks are planning on running more this season, after ranking just 29th in rushing attempts last season. The Seahawks did finish with a middle of the pack 4.25 yards per carry, 17th in the NFL, but that gets a lot worse when you see their top-2 backs, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, averaged just 3.75 yards per carry and 4.21 yards per carry respectively. The offensive line was primarily to blame though, as Walker and Charbonnet finished 3rd and 17th respectively among running backs on PFF in rushing grade and averaged 3.05 yards per carry after contact and 3.35 yards per carry after contact respectively, good for 23rd and 10th respectively among eligible running backs. In terms of elusive rating, which also factors in missed tackles, both were even better, ranking 3rd and 12th at 113.5 and 81.3 respectively.

A second round pick in 2022, Walker has a YPC average of 4.21 on 600 career carries, with 3.04 yards per carry after contact, and a 89.2 elusive rating, while Charbonnet, selected in the second round in 2023, has a career 4.24 YPC average on 243 carries, with 3.18 yards per carry after contact and a 64.9 elusive rating. Walker and Charbonnet saw similar amounts of carries last season, with 153 and 135 respectively, but that is only because Walker missed essentially six games with injury, with Charbonnet having 91 carries in those 6 games and just 44 in his other 11 games. In games where both played, Walker averaged 13.9 carries to just 4.0 for Charbonnet. Walker also missed two games in each of his first two seasons in the league, but, unless he misses significant time like he did last season, I would expect Walker and Charbonnet to have a similar carry split as 2023, when Walker had 219 carries to Charbonnet’s 108, even with Walker missing two games.

Both Walker and Charbonnet were active in the passing game last season, with Walker finishing with a 46/299/1 slash line and 1.33 yards per route run on 53 targets and Charbonnet finishing with a 42/340/1 slash line and 1.08 yards per route run on 52 targets. Like with carries, I expect Walker to have a bigger split of the running back targets this season, as long as he can stay healthy and, with less wide receiver talent than a year ago, it’s possible running backs will be a bigger part of the passing game, so Walker has the potential for a pretty big receiving year out of the backfield, while Charbonnet should also have a decent amount of pass game opportunities.

Walker also averaged 1.30 yards per route run in 2023 and, while Charbonnet only averaged 0.76 yards per route run as a rookie in 2023, he was productive in the passing game in college, so it’s not a surprise he took a step forward in that aspect in 2024. I should also note that Charbonnet had an excellent season as a pass blocker last season, allowing just 7 pressures on 100 pass block snaps, the same amount of allowed pressures as Walker, who only pass blocked 44 times.

Kenny McIntosh, a 2023 7th round pick, seems likely to be the third back again. He had an impressive 5.55 YPC average last season, but, even with Walker missing significant time, he only finished with 31 carries on the season, which were the first carries of his career. I don’t expect that to change much this season, so, even on an offense that figures to run the ball more this season, McIntosh is an afterthought. If either Walker or Charbonnet miss significant time, the other back figures to handle the vast majority of the work, with McIntosh seeing just a few carries here and there when Walker or Charbonnet need a breather. Overall, this is a deep backfield, with two running backs capable of carrying the load and making guys miss, but they might not have the production to match their talent if the offensive line doesn’t improve significantly.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Seahawks made one significant signing on defense this off-season, giving ex-Cowboys edge defender DeMarcus Lawrence a 3-year, 32.5 million dollar deal to replace Dre’Mont Jones, who was a cap casualty ahead of 16.51 million non-guaranteed in 2025. Jones was a bust of a free agent signing two off-season ago and it wouldn’t be hard for Lawrence to be an upgrade, after Jones finished with just a 54.3 PFF grade across 617 snaps last season, but Lawrence definitely comes with a lot of risk.

Prior to last season, Lawrence had consistently been one of the best edge defenders in the league for several years, finishing above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2017-2023, including six seasons above 80 and three seasons above 90. He primarily excelled as a run defender, but also was a productive pass rusher as well, totaling 49.5 sacks, 61 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate in 105 games across that stretch.

However, Lawrence was limited to 167 snaps in four games by injury last season and played poorly in limited action when on the field, with just a 56.8 PFF grade. It’s possible Lawrence could bounce back in a significant way if he is healthier in 2025, but Lawrence is also going into his age 33 season, so his best days are likely behind him. It seems likely Lawrence has at least some solid play left in the tank and the contract the Seahawks got him on is very reasonable all things considered, but he comes with a lot of risk, in addition to a lot of potential reward. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be better than Jones though, assuming he doesn’t suffer another major injury.

The Seahawks are also hoping for a healthier season out of fellow edge defender Uchenna Nwosu. Nwosu has been a solid edge defender throughout his 7-year career, finishing with PFF grades in the 60s and 70s in every season, but he was limited to just 190 snaps in 6 games last season, after playing just 283 snaps in 6 games the prior season. Nwosu had a 72.6 PFF grade across 952 snaps in 2022, totaling 9.5 sacks, 17 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate as a pass rusher, and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, so he has a good chance to be an impact player if he can stay healthy, but he also comes with a lot of risk, given how much time he has missed over the past two seasons.

If Lawrence and Nwosu stay healthy and have solid seasons, the Seahawks should have a solid trio of edge defenders. Those might be big ifs, but Boye Mafe, their top returning edge defender is much less of a question mark. A second round pick in 2022, Mafe has gotten better in every season in the league, going from a 64.6 PFF grade as a rookie to a 73.9 PFF grade in his second season in 2023 to a 75.2 PFF grade last season and he should remain at least a solid starter in 2025. Also a solid run defender, Mafe has compiled 15 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher in 31 games over the past two seasons.

If any of the Seahawks’ top-3 edge defenders miss time with injury, the Seahawks will push Derick Hall into a bigger role, similar to last season when he played 673 snaps. A 2023 second round pick, Hall struggled as a rookie with a 44.4 PFF grade across 308 snaps. He continued to struggle against the run in his second season in the league, but he took a big step forward as a pass rusher, with 8 sacks, 13 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate, so Hall should at least have a role as a situational pass rusher, even if everyone is healthy, and he may have further untapped upside as a run defender, still only going into his third season in the league. The Seahawks probably don’t have any elite edge defenders, but this is a deep position group that has the potential to be very effective if everyone stays healthy.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Seahawks didn’t make any significant additions at the interior defender position but they didn’t necessarily need to make any. Leonard Williams is arguably the best player on their entire defense and was well worth the second round pick and 3-year, 64.5 million dollar extension the Seahawks gave up to acquire him in the middle of the 2023 season, especially since the Seahawks have accumulated so much extra draft capital in recent years.

Williams flourished in his first full season in Seattle, posting a career high 87.1 PFF grade across 750 snaps, playing the run well and adding 11 sacks, 15 hits, and a 11.6% pressure rate, but that wasn’t totally out of the ordinary for him, as he has exceeded a 70 grade on PFF in all ten seasons in the league, while averaging 823 snaps per season and accumulating 54.5 sacks, 155 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate in 158 games, with just 6 games missed. He is now going into his age 31 season, so it’s unlikely he is able to quite repeat the best season of his career at his age, but he also hasn’t shown any signs of decline, he’s been remarkably durable throughout his career, and even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago he should still remain a well above average every down starter.

Fellow veteran Jarran Reed played the second most snaps at the position last season and had a pretty solid season himself, posting a 70.8 PFF grade across 679 snaps and particularly excelling as a pass rusher, with 4.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, but, like Williams, that was a career best year, and he is even older, now going into his age 33 season. Reed has always been a solid pass rusher throughout his career, with 38.5 sacks, 77 hits, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 139 career games, but he has also pretty consistently struggled against the run, which is why he never had a 70+ overall grade from PFF until his ninth season in the league in 2024. He will likely regress in 2024 and could drop off completely, given his age.

Luckily, the Seahawks do have a 2024 first round pick Byron Murphy who is likely ready to take a step forward in his second season in the league. Murphy was mediocre as a rookie, with a 57.8 PFF grade across 457 snaps, but he definitely has the potential to give the Seahawks a lot more this season, even if that’s not a guarantee. I would expect him to take over a starting role next to Williams, with Reed being more of a situational pass rusher this season.

Depth outside of the Seahawks’ top-3 interior defenders is a question mark. Jonathan Hankins played 389 snaps last season, but was terrible with a 35.9 PFF grade. Hankins was a solid player in his prime, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in four straight seasons, including three seasons below 50, and, now heading into his age 33 season, it is unlikely he gets any better. He may still have to play a significant reserve role though, as the Seahawks’ alternatives are sparingly used holdovers Mike Morris and Quinton Bohanna, as well as 5th round rookie Rylie Mills.

Morris, a 2023 5th round pick, has played just 96 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, while Bohanna has struggled across 605 snaps in four seasons in the league with four teams since going undrafted in 2021, including just 6 snaps for the Seahawks last season. Depth might not be a big concern because Leonard Williams almost never comes off the field, but if any of their top-3 interior defenders miss time with injury, the Seahawks would be forced to play someone in a significant role who would almost definitely struggle in that role. The Seahawks’ interior defender group is talented, but top heavy.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Seahawks’ linebacking corps remains pretty much the same as it was to end last season, but their linebacking corps underwent some big chances during the season last year. They started with veterans Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dobson as their top-2 linebackers, with 4th round rookie Tyrice Knight as their top reserve, but then they traded Baker mid-season along with a draft pick swap for fellow veteran and pending free agent Ernest Jones, who they kept on a 3-year, 28.5 million dollar extension. The Seahawks then released Dobson mid-season and replaced him in the starting lineup with Knight, who played 426 snaps in eight games from week 11 on, after playing just 124 snaps to that point in the season.

Knight played pretty well for a rookie, not only receiving a solid 65.4 PFF grade overall, but receiving run defense and pass coverage grades above 60, showing himself to be a well-rounded player capable of playing every down. Knight should remain a capable every down player in 2025, possibly with the potential to be even better, though it’s fair to question how high the upside of the former fourth round pick is. Jones, on the other hand, actually was underwhelming with a 59.4 PFF grade across 667 snaps in 10 games after being acquired, excelling against the run, but struggling mightily in coverage.

However, receiving a grade under 60 isn’t the norm for Jones, who had a 62.5 PFF grade in six games with the Titans before being traded and now has finished above 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons, including a career best 82.1 PFF grade in 2023. Still only in his age 26 season, Jones should remain at least a capable every down player with the upside for more if he can find his 2023 form. He’s always been a better run defender than coverage linebacker, with PFF grades against the run of 78.8, 90.0, and 73.6 over the past three seasons, but, at his best, he is also solid in coverage.

Knight and Jones are a solid starting duo, but their depth behind them is questionable. Drake Thomas, a 2023 undrafted free agent who has struggled across just 42 career defensive snaps, is probably their top reserve, with all of their other options being former undrafted free agents who have never played a defensive snap in the NFL and who might not make the final roster, Josh Ross, Michael Dowell, and Patrick O’Connell. If Jones or Knight miss significant time with injury, the Seahawks could be in some trouble.

Grade: B-

Secondary

To mask some of their lack of depth at linebacker, the Seahawks may use three safeties together frequently in sub packages. With five picks scheduled for the first three rounds, the Seahawks packaged a second round pick and a third round pick to move up to the top of the second round to take safety Nick Emmanwori, a projected first round pick and a player who is capable of lining up in multiple spots, including linebacker. Emmanwori probably won’t start for the Seahawks as a rookie, but he could still have a significant role and he provides insurance for starting safety Coby Bryant, a surprise breakout candidate last season who could regress this season and also a free agent next off-season.

Bryant, a 2022 4th round pick, struggled mightily in his first two seasons in the league, primarily at cornerback, with a 58.9 PFF grade across 757 snaps as a rookie and a 34.0 PFF grade across 147 snaps in his second season in the league, before breaking out with a 72.8 PFF grade across 785 snaps in 2024, primarily at safety. It’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter at his new position, but there is also some potential for regression.

Bryant will start opposite Julian Love, who is one of the Seahawks’ better defensive players. A 4th round pick in 2019, Love was inconsistent early in his career, but he has developed into an above average starter over the past three seasons, while getting better in every season, going from a 70.0 PFF grade in 2022 to a 72.8 PFF grade in 2023 to a career best 81.2 PFF grade in 2024. Love might not be quite as good again in 2025, but he is still only in his age 27 season and should remain at least an above average starter even if he regresses a little bit.

Along with the talented Love, the Seahawks also have a pair of talented cornerbacks, Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen. Witherspoon was the 5th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and has gotten off to a great start to his career, with a 84.1 PFF grade across 883 snaps as a rookie and a 76.1 PFF grade across 1,103 snaps last season. Still only going into his age 25 season, Witherspoon should continue playing at a high level and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had his best season yet in 2025. Woolen, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 71.6, 67.1, and 67.9 in three seasons in the league (46 starts) since being drafted in the 5th round in 2022. Only in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The Seahawks have questionable depth behind Witherspoon and Woolen though, another reason why the Seahawks could frequently use three safeties together in sub packages. Josh Jobe will probably nominally be their third cornerback, despite struggling with a 51.0 PFF grade across 443 snaps last season, after struggling with a 40.8 PFF grade across 240. snaps in the first significant action of his career in 2023. Even as the nominal third cornerback, he could see fewer snaps than Emmanwori. Jobe’s biggest competition for the third cornerback job is Nehemiah Prichett, a 2024 5th round pick who struggled mightily with a 29.5 PFF grade across 151 snaps as a rookie.

Jobe is probably better than Prichett by default and this is an area of concern if either Woolen or Witherspoon suffer a significant injury. The Seahawks’ secondary is led by a trio of talented players in Devon Witherspoon, Tariq Woolen, and Julian Love and they have Coby Bryant, who could continue being a solid starter in his second season at his new position, and Nick Emmanwori, a second round pick who easily could have gone in the first, but depth is somewhat of a concern for the Seahawks in the secondary, especially if any of their top players misses significant time with injury.

Grade: A-

Kicker

Jason Myers is expected to be the Seahawks’ kicker for the 8th straight season. The 10-year veteran has been highly inconsistent throughout his career, alternating seasons of above and below average points above replacement metrics throughout his career, and has averaged out to be a slightly above average kicker with just 10.95 points above average total in 10 seasons in the league. His best season came in 2020, when he missed just four kicks all season, all of which were extra points, and totaled 13.64 points above average, but he followed that up with a career worst season in 2021, when he went just 17 of 23 on field goals, missed another 3 extra points, and had 7.30 points below average. Last season was a solid one for him, with 4.54 points above average, but based on his history, it is far from a guarantee that he can replicate that in 2025.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Seahawks were a solid team last season, winning 10 games and finishing slightly above average in first down rate differential (+0.96%) and yards per play differential (+0.17). Their defense should remain a solid unit, but their offense has a lot of question marks after downgrading their receiving corps and replacing Geno Smith with Sam Darnold. Darnold raises the ceiling at the quarterback position, but also significantly lowers their floor and he enters a situation that is significantly worse than the one he had in Minnesota, particularly on the offensive line, but also in terms of his coaching staff and receiving corps. This team has a wide range of potential outcomes, but ultimately it is more likely they win fewer games than more games, as compared with a year ago.

Prediction: 8-9, 4th in NFC West

Arizona Cardinals 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 12, 2025September 4, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Quarterback

When Jonathan Gannon took over as the Cardinals’ head coach following the 2022 season, the Cardinals were arguably in the worst situation in the NFL. The Cardinals had the oldest roster in the NFL in 2022 and ranked 8th in roster average annual salary, which tends to correlate heavily with winning percentage, but they went just 4-13. Going into 2023, the Cardinals were in need of a major teardown and rebuild and, one of their few young bright spots, quarterback Kyler Murray, was set to miss the first half of the season after tearing his ACL late in 2022.

With their average age going all the way down to 31st in the NFL and their roster average annual value also falling to 27th, the Cardinals’ 2023 season started about as expected, as they lost eight of their first nine games, but they improved significantly when Murray returned, surprisingly going 3-5 down the stretch and showing promise going into the future. The Cardinals had two first round picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, but didn’t do much in free agency, leaving them with a roster average annual value that still ranked just 28th, so expectations were still not high going into 2024.

However, the Cardinals managed to exceed expectations for the second straight season, with Jonathan Gannon constantly getting the most out of his players again. They fell short of the post-season at 8-9, but were better than that suggests in terms of first down rate differential at +1.13% and yards per play differential at +0.31, led by an offense that ranked 7th in both first down rate and yards per play. Now going into 2025, the Cardinals were aggressive this off-season, particularly when it came to making much needed upgrades to their defense and, as a result, they now rank 10th in roster average annual value and look like they could be a playoff team, especially if Gannon continues to coach at a high level.

Murray was a big part of the Cardinals’ offensive success last season, completing 68.8% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while averaging 7.33 YPC with 5 touchdowns on 78 carries. Overall, he ranked 12th among quarterbacks with a 82.1 PFF grade. That’s largely in line with how he has played throughout his career, completing 67.1% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 115 touchdowns, and 57 interceptions, while averaging 6.00 YPC on 31 touchdowns on 503 carries, with a PFF grade above 80 in three of six seasons in the league. He’s also not really injury prone, only missing four games in his career aside from the time missed with a torn ACL, which he seems to be fully recovered from. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

The Cardinals also improved the backup quarterback situation this off-season in case Murray does happen to miss time, signing Jacoby Brissett, who has started 53 games in nine seasons in the league, completing 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.47 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. The Cardinals would be in trouble if he had to start for an extended period of time, but you could say the same thing about most teams if their starting quarterback got hurt and, all things considered, having Brissett as your backup is better than most teams’ quarterback situations. If he needs to make a couple spot starts, it won’t be the end of the Cardinals’ playoff chances.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

One of the key players who has broken out in the past couple years to accelerate the Cardinals’ rebuild is tight end Trey McBride. A second round pick in 2022, McBride didn’t do much as a rookie, with a 29/265/1 slash line and 0.84 yards per route run, and he was off to a similarly slow start to the 2023 season, but he suddenly broke out down the stretch when Murray got healthy, as McBride had a 55/538/2 slash line in the final eight games of the season with Murray under center, which extrapolates to 117/1143/4 over 17 games.

McBride then continued that into 2024, finishing with a 111/1146/2 slash line in 16 games. In terms of yards per route run, McBride ranked 3rd among tight ends in 2024 with 2.14 and his 86.8 PFF grade ranked 2nd among tight ends. The Cardinals extended him on a 4-year, 76 million dollar deal this off-season that makes him the second highest paid tight end in the league, but I think he is still underpaid as the tight end position is underpaid overall. Think about it this way, McBride’s receiving yardage last season would have been 10th among wide receivers, but his average annual salary would rank just 21st among wide receivers and he isn’t just a good receiver, as he also holds his own as a blocker as well.

One thing that could take this offense to the next level would be a breakout season from Marvin Harrison, who they selected 4th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft because of his massive upside. Harrison wasn’t bad as a rookie, but he wasn’t quite as good as expected, with a 62/885/8 slash line on 116 targets with a 1.63 yards per route run average. However, he still has a massive upside and I would be surprised if he didn’t at least take somewhat of a step forward in 2025, with a strong possibility that he takes a big step forward.

Michael Wilson remains the primary wide receiver opposite Harrison, which makes him a distant third in the pecking order. Wilson was a third round pick in 2023 and showed some promise as a rookie, with a 38/565/3 slash line and 1.36 yards per route run on just 58 targets, but he took a step back in a bigger role in 2024, seeing his targets increase to 71, but still producing around the same level, with a 47/548/4 slash line, and seeing his yards per route run average drop to 1.09. Wilson is still only in his age 25 season and could bounce back to his rookie year efficiency or possibly even have his most efficient year yet in his third season in the league in 2025, but he won’t be a big part of this offense unless McBride or Harrison suffer a significant injury.

Greg Dortch was the third wide receiver last season and he was underwhelming with a 37/342/3 slash line and a 1.18 yards per route run average, which is in line with the 6-year veteran’s career average of 1.22 yards per route run, but he is likely to remain in that role for another season, without a better option being added this off-season. His primary competition for the job will be veteran Zay Jones, who once was a solid receiver, with a 47/546/1 slash line and 1.38 yards per route run in 2021 and a 82/823/5 slash line and 1.44 yards per route run in 2022, but he has seen his yards per route run average drop to 1.05 in 2023 and 0.50 in 2024 and now he heads into his age 30 season, so his best days are likely behind him. He figures to remain the #4 wide receiver at best for another season.

Behind McBride at tight end, Tip Reiman (451 snaps) and Elijah Higgins (412 snaps) saw roles last season. Both were decent blockers, but Higgins was by far the better of the two as a receiver, with 1.01 yards per route run, as opposed to 0.34 for Reiman, leading to Higgins finishing with a 61.9 PFF grade overall, as opposed to 49.3 for Reiman. Reiman might be the favorite for the #2 tight end job this season though, as he was only rookie last season and, as a former third round pick, he has the higher upside of the two options. Higgins, a 2023 6th round pick who also had a 63.6 PFF grade on 191 snaps as a rookie, will probably continue seeing a situational role either way, but Reiman will likely play more snaps than he does. This is a top heavy receiving corps, led by Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison, but this group could be better than a year ago, if Harrison takes a step forward and/or if Michael Wilson bounces back from an underwhelming second season in the league.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

Another young player who has accelerated the Cardinals’ rebuild is Paris Johnson. The 6th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Johnson had a nondescript rookie year with a 60.1 PFF grade in 17 starts at right tackle, before breaking out at left tackle in 2024, with a 80.8 PFF grade in 14 starts. Johnson is technically a one-year wonder, but he entered the league with a huge upside, so there is a good chance he has permanently turned a corner and will remain an elite left tackle going forward and it’s also possible he still has further untapped upside, still only going into his age 24 season. I expect another strong season from him.

The rest of this offensive line is basically the same as a year ago, when they ranked 4th on PFF in pass block grade and 13th in run block grade. Left guard Evan Brown and center Hjalte Froholdt started all 17 games last season and will remain at those spots in 2025. Brown was decent, but unspectacular with a 65.9 PFF grade and I expect more of the same from him. Brown is going into his age 29 season and has mostly been a capable starter over the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 66.8, 64.8, and 55.5 in the three seasons prior to last, while making 57 total starts over that 4-year period.

For Froholdt, his 76.1 PFF grade in 2024 was a career best by a pretty wide margin. A 2019 4th round pick, Froholdt was a late bloomer, playing just 61 snaps in three and a half seasons before taking over a starting role until midway through his fourth season in the league, when he finished with a 61.4 PFF grade in 6 starts with the Browns. The Cardinals took a chance on him as a free agent and it has paid off, as he continued that decent play into his first full season as a starter in 2023, when he had a 64.1 PFF grade in 17 starts, before taking a big step forward in 2024. It’s very possible Froholdt won’t replicate the best year of his career again in 2025, but he should at least be a reliable starting center, with the upside to continue being an above average starter if he has permanently turned a corner.

Unlike at left guard and center, the Cardinals had significant injury issues at right guard and right tackle last season, where expected starters Will Hernandez and Jonah Williams played well with PFF grades of 69.3 and 70.7 respectively, but were limited to just 5 starts and 6 starts respectively by injury. Hernandez was replaced by career backup Trystan Colon, who played pretty well with a 71.0 PFF grade across 386 snaps, but was still benched down the stretch for third round rookie Isaiah Adams, who was mediocre with a 58.4 PFF grade across 462 snaps.

Hernandez and Colon were not retained this off-season, so Adams will remain the starter, despite his underwhelming performance down the stretch. He could take a step forward in his second season in the league, but that is not a guarantee and the Cardinals are taking a risk by not having a good alternative on the roster, with their top reserve guard likely being Royce Newman, a 2021 4th round pick who made 24 starts for the Packers from 2021-2023, but who finished below 60 on PFF in all three of those seasons, before getting waived last off-season and spending 2024 in Tampa, where he played just three snaps.

At right tackle, Williams was replaced by the seemingly ageless Kelvin Beachum, who performed decently with a 64.1 PFF grade in 12 starts. A 13-year veteran, Beachum has never finished below 60 on PFF for a season and, while his days as a full-time starter are likely over, heading into his age 36 season, Beachum is still good depth behind Williams, who the Cardinals are hoping to get a healthier season out of.

Williams has missed at least six games with injury in three of six seasons in the league, but he has generally played well when healthy, finishing above 60 on PFF in all but one season, with three seasons above 70. Still only in his age 28 season, the former first round pick of the Bengals has obvious upside if healthy, but it is probably a good thing the Cardinals have a solid insurance option behind him in Kelvin Beachum, given Williams’ injury history. The Cardinals’ offensive line is middling overall outside of left tackle Paris Johnson, but Paris Johnson significantly elevates the overall grade of the group by himself.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Cardinals’ running game was the most effective part of their offense last season, ranking second in the NFL with 5.29 YPC. Kyler Murray was a big part of the reason for the Cardinals’ success on the ground, not only averaging 7.33 YPC himself, but also freeing up space for running backs with his dual threat ability, but featured running back James Conner also had a great season, rushing for 1,094 yards and 8 touchdowns on 236 carries (4.64 YPC), while receiving a 90.4 grade on PFF, 5th best among running backs.

Conner is going into his age 30 season in 2025 with 1,642 career touches, so he’s right around where running backs start to drop off significantly, but he also has arguably had the best two seasons of his career in his last two seasons, exceeding 1000 yards rushing in both seasons for the only two times in his career, while averaging 4.81 YPC on a combined 444 carries, as opposed to 4.18 YPC in his first six seasons in the league. Conner also had a 47/414/1 slash line and 1.54 yards per route run last season and has a 1.19 yards per route run average for his career. I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good again in 2025, given his age, but he still has a good chance to remain at least a solid lead back.

With Conner getting up there in age, the Cardinals used a third round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Trey Benson with the intention of having him give Conner more regular rest in the short-term and potentially taking over for him as the starter in the long-term. Benson was decent as a rookie, averaging 4.62YPC, but he didn’t have much of a role, managing just 63 carries in 13 games. Now in his second season in the league with Conner being another year older, I would expect Benson’s role to grow and he has the talent to do well in that expanded role.

Emari Demercado was their primary backup in passing situations last season and he could remain in that role, even if Benson has an expanded role. Demercado, a 2023 undrafted free agent, averaged 1.11 yards per route run last season after only averaging 0.73 yards per route run as a rookie. Demercado also averaged 9.29 yards per carry last season, but it came on just 24 carries, mostly against defenses that were expecting the run. Conner will remain the lead back and Benson will have a big role as the backup, but Demercado could remain involved in a situational role as well.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While the Cardinals’ offense is almost identical to last season, when they were a well above average unit, their defense looks much different than a year ago, a good thing, as the Cardinals finished 23rd in yards per play allowed and 29th first down rate allowed. Their biggest single addition on defense this off-season probably edge defender Josh Sweat, who they signed to a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal. Sweat has finished above 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in five straight seasons, totaling 39 sacks, 47 hits, and a 11.5% pressure rate in 79 games over that stretch, while also mostly playing solid run defense. Still only going into his age 28 season, he should continue playing at that level into 2025. He was a great value and should be a big upgrade for the Cardinals on the edge.

The Cardinals also used a third round pick on Oregon’s Jordan Burch and are getting 2023 second round pick BJ Olujari back from a torn ACL that cost him all of last season, after he flashed potential with a 64.8 PFF grade across 409 snaps and a 12.4% pressure rate as a rookie. Sweat, Burch, and Olujari are being added to a position group that attempted to deal with their lack of talent last season by using a heavy rotation, with seven players playing at least 150 snaps, but only one of them playing more than 300 snaps.

That one player is Zaven Collins, who should continue having a role, even in a more talented position group. A first round pick in 2021, Collins began his career as an inside linebacker, but has been better off since switching to the edge over the past two seasons, finishing with a 72.1 PFF grade across 637 snaps in 2023 and a 72.0 PFF grade across 600 snaps in 2024, totaling 8.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 34 games, while particularly playing well against the run, including a 85.4 run defense grade in 2024 that was 4th best in the league among edge defender. Still only in his age 26 season, Collins should continue playing at a similar level in 2025 and should still have a role, particularly in base packages as a run stuffer.

The Cardinals should also get more out of Baron Browning than they did a year ago, as the only reason he just played 232 snaps for the Cardinals last season is because they traded for him mid-season and he played just eight games as a result. Browning isn’t much of a run defender, but he has 11.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.2% pressure rate in 37 games while averaging 464 snaps per season over the past three seasons and will continue having a rotational role, after being kept on a 2-year, 15 million dollar deal this off-season. Xavier Thomas, a 2024 5th round pick, is the only other holdover remaining on the roster from a year ago, but he struggled mightily with a 39.4 PFF grade across 208 snaps and could ultimately find himself on the outside looking in for a final roster spot in what is a much deeper position group this season.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Cardinals also made several additions at the interior defender position, much needed because their top-3 interior defenders in terms of snap count last season were LJ Collier (588 snaps), Dante Stills (532 snaps), and Roy Lopez (464 snaps), who finished with PFF grades of 49.2, 57.0, and 54.9 respectively. In free agency, the Cardinals added Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell on contracts of 2 years, 29 million and 1 year, 5.5 million respectively.

Tomlinson is going into his age 31 season and is coming off back-to-back down seasons, with PFF grades of 63.3 and 67.4 on snap counts of 617 and 609, after finishing above 70 on PFF in each of his first six seasons in the league prior to that. Given his age, it’s likely his best years are behind him, but he could still remain a solid starting interior defender for at least another season. His run defense is primarily what has declined, but he has still totaled 6 sacks, 22 hits, and a 10.2% pressure rate in 32 games over the past two seasons, which is actually an improvement over the 19 sacks, 46 hits, and 7.5% pressure rate he has in 125 career games.

Campbell is even older, going into his age 39 season, making him the oldest defensive player in the league by three years, but he is seemingly ageless, posting a 82.3 PFF grade across 616 snaps in 2024 that was his best single-season grade since 2019. In total, Campbell has finished above 70 on PFF in fourteen straight seasons, including nine seasons over 80 and four seasons over 90. Over that stretch, he has totaled 97.5 sacks, 166 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate in 213 games, while also playing the run well and averaging 49.0 snaps per game. At his age, a significant drop off is very possible, but he could also remain at least a useful starter for another season. By signing with the Cardinals this off-season, Campbell returns to the team who drafted him in the second round in 2008 and with whom he spent the first nine seasons of his career.

With Tomlinson and Campbell both on the wrong side of 30, the Cardinals used their first round pick this year on a younger option, taking Walter Nolen 16th overall. He has a huge upside and could also make an immediate impact in a rotational role. He’s also the second straight interior defender the Cardinals have drafted in the first round, as they used their other first round pick in 2024 on Darius Robinson. Robinson missed most of his rookie season with injury, limited to 184 snaps in six games, and he struggled mightily even when on the field, with a 48.4 PFF grade, but he still has a high upside and could be a lot better in his second season in the league if he is healthier. He also figures to rotate heavily with Tomlinson, Campbell, and Nolen.

The Cardinals are also getting back Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols after they missed most of last season with injury, limited to 100 snaps in 3 games and 173 snaps in 6 games respectively, after being signed to deals worth 3 years, 31.165 million and 3 years, 21 million in free agency last off-season. In a much deeper and more talented position group this season, Jones and Nichols are unlikely to see significant roles and both were overpaid as free agents anyway. Jones has finished below 60 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, including four seasons under 50, while Nichols has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons. The Cardinals are much better off for not needing them to play significant roles this season.

LJ Collier and Dante Stills also remain on the roster as of this writing, but both may be long shots to make the final roster, given all of the Cardinals’ additions at this position this off-season. Collier is a bust as a 2019 first round pick, finishing below 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league. Stills, meanwhile, is a 2023 6th round pick who has finished with PFF grades of 59.3 and 57.0 over the past two seasons. Collier and Stills led this position group in snaps last season, but with Tomlinson, Campbell, and Nolen all being added and Robinson, Jones, and Nichols all expected to be healthier, the Cardinals don’t have much need for them any more. This is a much improved position group.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Cardinals also signed Akeem Davis-Gaither in free agency, bringing the linebacker in on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal, but he is not as impactful as the Cardinals’ other off-season additions. A 2020 4th round pick, Davis-Gaither only played 847 underwhelming snaps in the first four seasons of his career, before playing a bigger role in 2024, when he played 535 snaps, but he didn’t perform any better, finishing with a 59.0 PFF grade. Davis-Gaither is replacing Kyzir White, who had a 48.8 PFF grade across 1,015 snaps last season, so it won’t be hard for Davis-Gaither to be an upgrade, but he is still an underwhelming option.

Davis-Gaither will start next to Mack Wilson, who was decent with a 63.8 PFF grade across 760 snaps last season. That was the first season of his 6-year career in which he played more than 400 snaps and finished above 60 on PFF, but he also had a 81.5 PFF grade across 305 snaps in 2023 and, only in his age 27 season, it’s possible he’s permanently turned a corner and will remain a solid starter going forward. Even if that is the case, however, Davis-Gaither and Wilson are an underwhelming linebacker duo and the Cardinals’ depth behind them isn’t great either, with 2023 5th round pick Owen Rappoe, who has played 245 nondescript snaps in two seasons in the league, and 4th round rookie Cody Simon as their top reserve options.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Cardinals also used a second round pick on Michigan cornerback Will Johnson. Johnson was arguably the best cornerback in the draft and could have been a top-10 pick, but concerns about the durability of his knee long-term dropped him into the middle of the second round. If he can stay healthy, he could prove to be a massive steal for the Cardinals. For now, it sounds like he will be healthy enough for the Cardinals off-season program and will compete for a role in what is a very young cornerback group overall.

The Cardinals’ top cornerback and probably the only one locked into a role is slot cornerback Garrett Williams, a 2023 3rd round pick who broke out last season with a 82.0 PFF grade across 778 snaps, after posting an underwhelming 56.7 PFF grade across 360 snaps as a rookie. Williams is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season and might not be quite as good again in 2025 as he was in 2024, but even if he regressed somewhat, he should still remain an above average slot cornerback and he has the potential to be one of the best slot cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

In addition to taking Will Johnson in the second round of this year’s draft and Garrett Williams in the third round of the 2023 draft, the Cardinals used second and third round picks on Max Melton and Elijah Jones in the 2024 draft. Melton was mediocre with a 55.5 PFF grade across 565 snaps as a rookie, while Jones missed his entire rookie season with injury, but both could provide more value in their second season in the league and should compete for roles.

The Cardinals also have Starling Thomas, who, while he went undrafted in the 2023 draft, is also a young cornerback who will compete for a role. After struggling mightily with a 46.1 PFF grade across 473 snaps as a rookie, he was serviceable with a 60.9 PFF grade across 817 snaps last season. The Cardinals are probably hoping one of their higher upside, higher drafted cornerbacks can step up and take over a bigger role from Thomas, but Thomas isn’t a bad option to have either.

The veteran of this cornerback group is Sean Murphy-Bunting, a 2019 second round pick of the Buccaneers who is heading into the second year of a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal he signed with the Cardinals last off-season. Murphy-Bunting struggled with a 56.5 PFF grade across 725 snaps in his first season in Arizona and, while he has had some better years, he has also finished below 60 on PFF in four of six seasons in the league and there is a good chance he remains mediocre in 2025. His 8 million dollar salary is guaranteed, ensuring his roster spot, but he is not guaranteed to continue having a significant role in a young cornerback group that has other options.

Unlike at cornerback, the Cardinals have a veteran duo at safety, where Jalen Thompson and Budda Baker are heading into their 7th straight season as the Cardinals safety duo, but both are still under 30 and are unlikely to regress in 2025. Thompson has played 84 games in six seasons in the league, starting 72 of them, including all 47 games he has played in the past three seasons. He’s never been a spectacular player, but he has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, with his career best coming in 2023, when he finished with a 71.3 grade. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025.

Baker, meanwhile, has started 112 of the 122 games he has played since being selected in the second round in the 2017 NFL Draft, including all 92 he has played in over the past six seasons. Like Thompson, he has also exceeded 60 on PFF in every season in the league and he’s shown a higher upside than Thompson, exceeding 70 on PFF in five of those eight seasons, including a career best 77.8 grade in 2024. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being an above average starting safety, even if he might not repeat his career best 2024 campaign.

If either Thompson or Baker miss time with injury, the Cardinals could still be in good hands because 2024 4th round pick Dadrion Taylor-Demerson showed a lot of potential in a reserve role as a rookie, with a 75.5 PFF grade across 258 snaps. He might not be able to keep up that level of play as an every down starter if needed, but he’s still young with upside and he’s a better third safety option than most teams have. The Cardinals’ secondary has a good chance to be better than a year ago, given how many young cornerback options they have that could potentially give them more than they gave them a year ago.

Grade: B+

Kicker

The Cardinals began last season with Matt Prater as their kicker and he excelled, making all six of his field goals and all ten of his extra points in four games, but then he got hurt and was replaced by Chad Ryland. Ryland, a 4th round pick by the Patriots in 2023, was a disaster as a rookie in New England, making just 64.0% of his field goals and finishing the season with a league worst 15.46 points below average, leading to his release from New England after just one season.

However, he was a lot better in Arizona last season, making 87.5% of his field goals and accumulating 1.81 points above average. With Prater a free agent going into his age 41 season this off-season, the Cardinals opted not to bring him back and instead are going with the younger Ryland going forward. He’s still pretty unproven and it’s possible he could regress in 2025, but he also came into the league with a lot of potential and has a good chance to continue being a solid kicker for the Cardinals going forward.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Cardinals ranked 7th in both yards per play and first down rate last season and bring back every offensive player who played at least 400 snaps for them last season. Their defense was a problem, as they ranked 23rd in yards per play allowed and 29th first down rate allowed, but they should be significantly healthier on defense, after having the fourth most adjusted games lost to injury on defense last season, and they made several key off-season additions as well, most notably edge defenders Josh Sweat, interior defenders Dalvin Tomlinson and Walter Nolen, and cornerback Will Johnson. If their offense can remain a top-10 unit and their defense can improve to even being a middling unit, the potential is there for this to be a playoff team in 2025, especially since they have a weak schedule.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in NFC West

Cleveland Browns 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 12, 2025July 29, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, Browns

Quarterback

Three off-seasons ago, the Browns made a franchise changing move. After years of building their roster after an aggressive rebuilding process, the Browns felt they were a quarterback away from being legitimate contenders and traded three first round picks to Houston for Deshaun Watson, who they promptly gave a new fully guaranteed 5-year, 20 million dollar contract. It was a risky move and not just because of the price they paid to acquire him. Watson came with serious off-the-field accusations and a pending lengthy suspension, even after he had already sat out the entire 2021 season as his legal situation played out.

However, the one thing that didn’t seem to be a concern was his football ability. Watson was in the prime of his career and had career numbers of 67.8% completion, 8.32 YPA, 104 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions, along with 5.46 YPC and 17 touchdowns on the ground, including a career best year the last time he was on the field in 2020, when he completed 70.2% of his passes for an average of 8.87 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while rushing for 4.93 YPC and 3 touchdowns on 90 carries, leading to him ranking 2nd overall among quarterbacks on PFF with a 92.4 grade.

Watson missed the first eleven games of the 2022 season with his suspension and then was underwhelming upon his return, completing 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.48 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. It was easy to chalk Watson’s underwhelming performance up to being rusty after missing a total of 28 games and adapting to a new scheme, but Watson continued to struggle in 2023, completing 61.4% of his passes for an average of 6.52 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 6 starts, before going down for the season with a shoulder injury. Upon his return in 2024, Watson was even worse, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 5.31 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in 7 starts, before going down for the season with a torn achilles.

The reasons for Watson’s sudden regression in the middle of his career are not totally clear, but it probably has something to do with a combination of injuries, being a poor scheme fit, and being out of action for so long between the 2021 and 2022 seasons. Watson does have two years left on his contract, worth a combined 92 million guaranteed, but after his latest injury, the Browns are seemingly ready to give up on him and, even if they aren’t, it’s very possible he’s not healthy enough to play at all in 2025. Making matters worse, the quarterback they jettisoned when they acquired Watson, Baker Mayfield, has since broken out in Tampa Bay, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.52 YPA, 69 touchdowns, and 26 interceptions over the past two seasons.

Probably the most frustrating thing about Watson’s struggles for the Browns is the fact that they were right that they were a quarterback away from being legitimate contenders. As poorly as Watson played in 2022 and 2023, the Browns were 8-4 in games he started and, even without him, the Browns made the post-season in 2023 despite starting five different quarterbacks because of the strength of the rest of this roster. However, with their roster getting older and with three missing first round picks as a result of the Watson trade, the rest of this team has declined significantly in 2024 and, still without a competent quarterback, the Browns finished last season 3-14.

This off-season, the Browns opted not to address the quarterback in a significant way, recognizing that this was a bad quarterback draft class and recognizing that their roster would need a multi-year rebuild either way. The Browns used their 2nd overall pick to trade down to the 5th overall pick and accumulated much needed extra draft picks in the process, including the Jaguars’ first round pick in what is projected to be a much better quarterback class next year. In the meantime, the Browns took fliers on former first round bust pick Kenny Pickett, 40-year-old Joe Flacco, and third and fifth round rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, in hopes that one of them can give them respectable quarterback play. Ultimately, that seems unlikely and that might be for the best, as losing as many games as possible would help the Browns secure a high pick in next year’s draft.

Flacco went 4-1 for the Browns in 2023, but he was two years younger then and had about a league average 90.2 QB rating, mostly winning games because of a strong supporting cast that is no longer what it once was. Pickett was the 20th overall pick by the Steelers in 2022, but he was always a reach in a terrible quarterback draft and has shown nothing in three years in the league that suggests he should have been taken there, completing just 62.6% of his passes for an average of 6.31 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions in 25 starts with the Steelers and Eagles. Gabriel and Sanders have some upside, but ultimately the odds of finding even a solid starting quarterback outside of the top-50 picks of a draft are very slim, particularly when you consider that this was overall a bad quarterback draft class. It’s very likely that at least two or three of these options make starts for the Browns in 2025 and it’s also very likely that they all struggle.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

The Browns still have four of their five primary starting offensive linemen from their 2023 playoff team, but four of their five offensive line starters are on the wrong side of 30 and, overall, this group is not as good as it was two years ago. Center Ethan Pocic is the youngest of the over 30 offensive linemen, only going into his age 30 season this season. He’s been a solid starter for the past five seasons, finishing in the 60s and 70s on PFF in all five seasons, including a 71.4 PFF grade in 2023 and a 63.6 PFF grade in 2024. Given his age, he could remain a solid starter for another couple seasons, but it’s also possible he declines a little bit.

Right guard Wyatt Teller is going into his age 31 season. At his best, he was one of the top guards in the league, with PFF grades of 92.7 and 84.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, but he also maintained above average grades into 2022 and 2023, when he received grades of 70.3 and 72.9, before falling to 62.6 in 2024. It’s likely at this point in his career that he is on the decline and it’s very possible he’ll never be as good as he was in 2022-2023 again, let alone 2020-2021, but he probably will remain at least a capable starter.

Left guard Joel Bitonio is the oldest of the bunch, going into his age 34 season, and reportedly contemplated retirement this off-season. The 11-year veteran was consistently one of the best guards in the league in his prime, with eight seasons above 70 on PFF and four seasons above 80, but he has finished with grades of 68.0 and 63.9 over the past two seasons and it’s likely that is the best we can expect him from at this point in his career. It’s also possible he declines even further and struggles.

The Browns did sign Teven Jenkins to a 1-year, 3.05 million dollar deal in free agency to give themselves some insurance at guard. Jenkins, a 2021 2nd round pick, has performed at a pretty high level over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 80.7, 72.6, and 75.4, but he has durability concerns, missing 23 of a possible 68 games in his career, with a maximum of 14 starts in a season, which is likely why he didn’t have a strong free agent market. As far as reserve guards go, he is one of the best in the league, as he arguably is good enough to start for a number of teams around the league. The Browns also have 2024 3rd round pick Zak ZInter, who struggled mightily with a 43.9 PFF grade across 233 snaps as a rookie, but who still has upside and could provide good depth at both guard and center.

At right tackle, Jack Conklin is going into his age 31 season. He actually missed most of the 2023 season with an injury he suffered week 1, which carried into 2024, when he missed the first four games of the season. Having him healthy in 2025 would be one thing the Browns have in 2025 that they didn’t have in 2023, but it’s also unlikely the Browns go the full season without any offensive line injuries, so they won’t necessarily be healthier upfront in 2025 than they were in 2023, especially when you consider that injuries have cost Conklin at least five games in four of the past seven seasons, with 41 total games missed in those seven seasons. Conklin also saw his PFF grade fall to a career worst 66.2 in 2024 and, while he could bounce back a little bit in 2025, another year removed from injury, but it’s also very likely that his best days are behind him, given his age.

When Conklin was out in 2023, his primary replacement was Dawand Jones, who did a decent job with a 64.8 PFF grade in 9 starts, despite being just a 4th round rookie, before suffering his own season-ending injury. With left tackle Jedrick Wills, who had PFF grades of 54.0 and 52.9 in 2023 and 2024 respectively, no longer with the team, Jones is expected to take over as the starting left tackle in 2025, but his long-term trajectory doesn’t look as good now as it did after his solid rookie season, as he regressed significantly to a 46.4 PFF grade in 8 starts in 2024, before his season was ended by another significant injury.

Coming off of a terrible season and back-to-back major injuries, Jones is a shaky starting option going into 2025. The only other option the Browns have though is veteran free agent addition Cornelius Lucas, who has been a solid swing tackle for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in eight straight seasons, but who has also never made more than 12 starts in a season in his career and now is heading into his age 34 season. With a questionable situation at left tackle and the Browns’ other four expected starting offensive linemen on the wrong side of 30, the Browns’ offensive line has a lot of concerns, though at least they have above average depth if needed.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

In 2023, the Browns’ receiving corps was led by Amari Cooper, who had a great year, posting a 80.3 PFF grade, with a 72/1250/5 slash line and 2.31 yards per route run on just 128 targets, despite an inconsistent quarterback situation. Cooper declined significantly in 2024 though, not coincidentally his age 30 season, when he had just a 63.0 PFF grade with a 24/250/2 slash line and 1.46 yards per route run on 53 targets in 6 games, before being traded to the Bills mid-season.

Fortunately, the Browns had Jerry Jeudy, who they acquired last off-season, to step up in his absence, but, while he did have an impressive 90/1229/4 slash line, he was far less efficient than Cooper was in 2023, totaling those numbers on 145 targets, averaging 1.72 yards per route run, and finishing with a 73.5 PFF grade as a result. In fact, Jeudy’s yards per route run average was lower than the average he had in his first four seasons in the league in Denver (1.83), when he averaged just a 53/763/3 slash line per season. Jeudy should still be productive in 2025, but that’s because he remains by far the top wide receiver option in an underwhelming position group.

After Jeudy on the depth chart, Cedric Tillman and Diontae Johnson are expected to be the Browns’ top wide receivers. Tillman, a 2023 3rd round pick, struggled mightily as a rookie with 0.63 yards per route run, before taking a step forward in his second season in the league, with 1.22 yards per route run. He could take another step forward in his third season in the league, but that’s far from a guarantee and, overall, he seems likely to be an underwhelming #2 wide receiver option.

Diontae Johnson is much more proven, with an average of 1.70 yards per route run in his career and was primarily available on just a minimum one-year dollar deal in free agency this off-season because of issues he has had with coaching staffs in the past, especially last season, when he spent times on three different rosters, after spending the first five seasons of his career in Pittsburgh. As a result, he finished last season with a career worst 33/375/3 slash line. Johnson is only in his age 29 season and still averaged a decent 1.52 yards per route run last season, so if he can be coachable, he could be a solid receiving option, especially compared to Elijah Moore (0.91 yards per route run), who he is essentially replacing, but he comes with a lot of risk.

Behind their top-3 wide receivers, the Browns are very limited on options, as the other wide receivers on their roster are return man DeAndre Carter, who is heading into his age 32 season, with a career 1.11 yards per route run average, David Bell, a 2022 3rd round pick who hasn’t developed, averaging 0.92 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, Jamari Thrash, a 2024 5th round pick who averaged just 0.24 yards per route run as a rookie, and Michael Woods, a 2022 6th round pick with a career 0.38 yards per route run average. All four are bottom of the roster wide receiver talents, but if any of their top-3 receivers miss significant time with injury, one of them will be forced into a significant role, which is very likely, given how common injuries are.

With the issues the Browns have at wide receiver, expect them to lean heavily on tight end David Njoku, who had 123 targets in 2023 and 97 targets in just 11 games in 2014. Njoku was better in 2023 than 2024, with a 81/882/6 slash line and 1.70 yards per route run, as opposed to 64/505/5 and 1.33 yards per route run in 2024, but he is only in his age 29 season, so he could bounce back in 2025 if he’s healthy. The Browns added Harold Fannin in the third round of the draft, but I think that was more for depth purposes in the short-term and that he won’t cut heavily into Njoku’s workload. Fannin will replace Jordan Akins, a veteran who was decent in an expanded role last season with Njoku missing time, finishing the season with a 40/390/2 slash line and 1.24 yards per route run on 58 targets. Overall, this is an underwhelming receiving corps, with Njoku likely functioning as the #2 receiver.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

The Browns’ running game was a problem last season, as they ranked 29th in the NFL in carries, 29th in rushing yards, and 23rd in yards per carry at 4.11. Leading rusher Jerome Ford averaged 5.43 YPC on 104 carries, but 45.1% of his rushing yards came on 7 carries of 15+ yards and he averaged just 3.20 YPC on his other 97 carries. Ford was also the Browns’ leading rusher in 2023, when he averaged 3.99 YPC on 204 carries, with 32.7% of his yards coming on 8 carries of 15+ yards and a 2.79 YPC on his other 196 carries.

In order to improve this running game, the Browns did not retain Nick Chubb, who averaged just 3.25 YPC on 102 carries last season, after missing most of 2023 with a significant knee injury, and they replaced him with second and fourth round picks Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson. Judkins, a physical inside runner, is likely to be their lead back in 2024, while the smaller, speedier Sampson can provide a change of pace. Ford will likely remain involved, particularly in passing situations, where he has slash lines of 44/319/5 and 37/225/0 on target totals of 63 and 43 over the past two seasons respectively. This still looks like an underwhelming backfield, but they have significant upside with a pair of talented rookies coming in.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Browns’ defense was the biggest reason for their success in 2023, as they ranked 1st in the NFL in first down rate allowed and 4th in yards per play allowed. In 2024, they were still pretty good, but fell to 2nd in first down rate allowed and 23rd yards per play allowed. That wasn’t that surprising. Not only does defensive performance tend to be much less consistent year-to-year than offensive performance, but they also had several key players from 2023 who were getting up there in age. Going into 2025, the Browns have lost several key players from their dominant 2023 defense, while others have declined or are likely to decline due to age.

At the beginning of this off-season, the Browns thought they might be losing their most important player on defense, Myles Garrett, who initially demanded a trade, before opting to come back after the Browns gave him a 4-year, 160 million dollar extension that reset the edge defender market at the time. Garrett was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2023, receiving a 94.0 PFF grade on 805 snaps, excelling against the run, while also totaling 14 sacks, 15 hits, and a 17.2% pressure rate, and he wasn’t much worse in 2024, when he had a 92.3 PFF grade on 822 snaps, 14 sacks, 13 hits, and a 17.4% pressure rate. In total, Garrett has finished above 80 on PFF in all eight seasons in the league, since being #1 overall in 2017, including four straight seasons above 90. He’s now going into his age 30 season, so he could start declining soon, but even if he declines somewhat in 2025, it’s hard to imagine him not being one of the best edge defenders in the league.

In 2023, Garrett lined up opposite Za’Darius Smith, who also played at a high level with a 82.6 PFF grade across 580 snaps and a 15.5% pressure rate, while Ogbo Okoronkwo had a 65.7 PFF grade across 443 snaps and a 12.0% pressure rate as the primary reserve. In 2024, Smith got off to a solid start, with a 73.6 PFF grade across 324 snaps and a 13.2% pressure rate through 9 games, but he wasn’t quite as good as he was in 2023 and then he was traded to the Lions for draft compensation, with the Browns’ season going nowhere. Meanwhile, Okoronkwo dropped all the way to a 45.3 PFF grade, struggling against the run and as a pass rusher (8.7% pressure rate). Okoronkwo had finished above 60 on PFF in each of his first five seasons in the league prior to last season, so he has some bounce back potential, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so it’s also possible his best days are behind him and that he will continue to struggle.

Isaiah McGuire, a 2023 4th round pick, was a bright spot for the Browns last season. He struggled with a 46.9 PFF grade across 93 snaps as a rookie, but in 2024 he excelled as a run stopper (86.1 PFF grade against the run, 3rd best among edge defenders), while also adding 2.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in a part-time role. He finished last season with 469 snaps played, 297 of which came in 8 games after Smith was traded, and he figures to continue having an expanded role in 2024. It’s possible he’s not quite as good in 2025 in that expanded role as he was in 2024, but he seems to have a bright future, especially as a run stopper.

The Browns will get Alex Wright back from injury this season, after he was limited to 103 snaps in four games last season. Wright wasn’t bad last season before going down, with a 60.2 PFF grade, but that was a limited sample size and he struggled with PFF grades of 38.4 and 54.8 on snap counts of 543 and 385 in his first two seasons in the league in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Wright was a third round pick in 2022, so he has potential and it’s possible he has permanently turned a corner and will remain a decent rotational player upon his return in 2025, but he also could regress back to struggling.

The Browns also took a flier on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka this off-season and will give the 2021 first round pick a chance to earn a rotational role. Tryon-Shoyinka has largely been a bust to this point in his career, playing 630 snaps per season, but maxing out with a 67.1 PFF grade in 2022 and finishing below 60 on PFF in two of four seasons in the league, including a 52.0 PFF grade across 539 snaps in 2024. In total, he has just 15 sacks, 22 hits, and a 9.6% pressure rate in 66 career games, including 2 sacks, 1 hit, and a 8.0% pressure rate in 15 games in 2024. Still only in his age 26 season, he may still have some untapped potential, but he’s running out of time to make good on that potential. The Browns still have the dominant Myles Garrett and Isaiah McGuire has potential, but the rest of this edge defender group is underwhelming and, overall, this group looks noticeably worse than it was in 2023.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

In 2024, the Browns were led in snaps at the interior defender position by Dalvin Tomlinson (609 snaps) and Shelby Harris (527 snaps), who also led the Browns in snaps at the interior defender position in 2023. Both had solid seasons in 2024, with PFF grades of 67.4 and 66.7 respectively, but are on the wrong side of 30, so Tomlinson wasn’t retained in free agency, while Harris is expected to play a smaller role, now in his age 34 season. An 11-year veteran, Harris has never finished below 60 on PFF in any season, with seven seasons over 70, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could continue declining in 2025.

To make up for the loss of Tomlinson and Harris likely moving into a smaller role, the Browns used the 5th overall pick on Mason Graham, signed veteran Maliek Collins to a 2-year, 20 million dollar deal, and will likely get more out of 2024 2nd round pick Michael Hall, who was limited to 232 snaps in 8 games as a rookie due to injury and suspension. Graham is NFL ready, in addition to having a huge upside, while Hall showed a lot of potential in a limited role as a rookie, with a 67.7 PFF grade.

Collins, meanwhile, is also getting up there in age, heading into his age 30 season. A 9-year veteran, Collins has consistently been a good interior rusher throughout his career, finishing above 60 on PFF as a pass rusher in all but one season, while totaling 30.5 sacks, 60 hits, and a 8.5% pressure rate in 136 career games, but he has also consistently struggled as a run defender, finishing below 60 on PFF in seven of nine seasons in the league. I would expect more of the same from Collins in 2025, with potentially some decline overall due to his age.

The Browns also have Sam Kamara and Jowan Briggs, who showed some potential in limited roles last season, with PFF grades of 65.7 and 72.2 respectively on snap counts of 273 and 133 respectively. Kamara is a 2021 undrafted free agent who only played 194 snaps in his first three seasons in the league, prior to last season, while Briggs was a 2024 7th round pick, so neither of them have a high upside and both could struggle if forced into a larger role, but they should still compete for rotational roles, even if they are likely to need an injury ahead of them on the depth chart to see significant playing time. This isn’t a bad position group, but it is not a particularly good one either.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Outside of Myles Garrett, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah might have been the Browns’ most important defensive player in 2023. A 2021 2nd round pick, Owusu-Koramoah had a 75.3 PFF grade in 2023 and was having an even better season in 2024 with a 80.6 PFF grade, but he suffered a scary neck injury last season that ended his season after 460 snaps in 8 games and that already has him out for all of 2025, making it likely that his career is in doubt. Needless to say, his absence in 2025 and potentially beyond are a huge blow to this defense.

Fellow linebackers Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush also had good seasons in 2024, with PFF grades of 77.4 and 79.2 respectively across snap counts of 602 and 497. For Hicks, it was his fifth season over 70 on PFF in ten seasons in the league, including back-to-back in 2023 and 2024. Hicks is going into his age 33 season though and reserve option Mohamed Diaboute struggled with a 52.5 PFF grade across 581 snaps last season, which mostly came after Owusu-Koramoah got hurt, so the Browns prioritized re-signing Bush in free agency and then used a second round pick on Carson Schwesinger.

Bush also comes with some concerns, in part because he was arrested this off-season, but also because he is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, with his previous career high single-season grade on PFF being 62.9. Bush is a former 2019 1st round pick who is still only going into his age 27 season, so it’s possible he could have permanently turned a corner and will remain at least a solid starting option, but that’s not a guarantee. WIth Owusu-Koramoah out for the season, Hicks going into his age 33 season, Bush being a one-year wonder with off-the-field concerns, and Schwesinger being a rookie, this is a shaky linebacker group, but there is at least some upside here if everything goes right.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Browns’ secondary didn’t change much between 2023 and 2024 personnel wise, but all of their key players had a worse season in 2024 than they did in 2023. That’s despite the fact that many of their key defensive backs were not on the wrong side of 30. The most noticeable decline was probably cornerbacks Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome. Neither were spectacular in 2023, with PFF grades of 65.8 and 69.6 respectively across snap counts of 856 and 770 respectively, but both struggled in 2024, falling to PFF grades of 47.9 and 52.2 respectively across snap counts of 827 and 571.

Both are still only going into their age 25 season and 2024 is the outlier when you look at their careers, as Emerson is a 2022 3rd round pick who also had a 72.5 PFF grade across 783 snaps as a rookie, while Newsome is a 2021 1st round pick who has finished with PFF grades above 68 in each of the first three seasons in the league prior to last season, so both have significant bounce back potential in 2024, but they overall don’t look as promising long-term as they did a year ago, given how badly they played last season. If Emerson and/or Newsome continue to struggle, the Browns won’t have much choice but to continue playing them in significant roles as their top alternative is Cameron Mitchell, a 2023 5th round pick who has struggled with PFF grades of 58.1 and 52.9 across snap counts of 277 and 371 in his first two seasons in the league respectively.

Denzel Ward remains as the Browns’ top cornerback. His dropoff from 2023 to 2024 was negligible, going from a 69.6 PFF grade across 617 snaps in 2023 to a 68.4 PFF grade across 757 snaps in 2024. Last season was actually the second worst single-season grade of his 7-year career, as he’s mostly been an above average cornerback since entering the league as the 4th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Ward is still only going into his age 28 season and should remain an above average starter in 2025, but durability has consistently been a problem for him and will likely remain one going forward. Ward has never had a major injury, playing in at least 12 games in every season in the league, but he has also missed at least one game in every season, 21 games total in seven seasons, while maxing out at 855 snaps played in a season.

At safety, the Browns also got negligible declines from Juan Thornhill, who had a 67.3 PFF grade across 602 snaps in 2023 and a 65.5 PFF grade across 401 snaps in 2024, and Rodney McLeod, who had a 54.1 PFF grade across 280 snaps in 2023 and a 50.9 PFF grade across 565 snaps in 2024. With Thornhill and McLeod heading into their age 30 and age 35 seasons respectively, the Browns did not retain either and instead will give Ronnie Hickman a full-time starting job. Hickman also regressed from 2023 to 2024, but he showed a lot of potential in both seasons, with a 86.5 PFF grade across 308 snaps in 2023 and a 77.2 PFF grade across 463 snaps in 2024. Hickman went undrafted in 2023 and his impressive play over the past two seasons might not translate into an every down role, so he does come with some risk, but he also has a lot of upside.

If Hickman can’t translate to a larger role, the Browns’ best alternative is veteran Damontae Kazee, who they signed in free agency. Kazee has been a solid situational player/starter for most of his career, starting 62 of 92 games he played in from 2017-2023 and averaging 45.0 snaps played per game, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all seven seasons. However, he fell to a 58.8 PFF grade across just 290 snaps last season and now heads into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he would likely struggle if forced back into a starting role.

Grant Delpit will remain as the other starting safety. He fell from a 70.0 PFF grade across 738 snaps in 2023 to a 65.2 PFF grade across 978 snaps in 2024. His 2023 season was the best season of his career thus far, but he’s also had a PFF grade above 60 in each of the past four seasons and, still only in his age 27 season, he should remain at least a capable starter in 2025, even if he doesn’t reach the heights he reached in 2023. The Browns have a solid secondary if everything goes right, but there is also downside here as well.

Grade: B

Kickers

The Browns’ kicker situation was a big part of the problem last season, as kicker Dustin Hopkins ranked dead last in the NFL with 14.8 points below average, probably costing the Browns at least one win, if not more. The Browns didn’t bring in any meaningful competition for him this off-season, with the only other option on their roster being 2024 undrafted free agent Andre Szmyt, who didn’t attempt a kick as a rookie. Instead, the Browns are hoping for a bounce back season from Hopkins. Hopkins did have three straight above average seasons prior to last season, accumulating 10.3 points above average over those three seasons, including 7.4 points above average in 2023, 6th best in the NFL. However, he is now heading into his age 35 season, so his best days may be behind him and, even if he bounces back somewhat in 2025, he could still struggle and be below average.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Browns figure to be one of the worst teams in the league again this season. Their quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league and they lack high level young talent throughout their roster, in large part due to not having a first round pick for three straight seasons from 2022-2024. The Browns look like they are in the early stages of a teardown before a rebuild and might have been better off more aggressively tearing down this roster in an attempt to free up more cap space for 2026 and get to the building part of their rebuild sooner. As of right now, the Browns still have a roster that has the 5th highest average age in the NFL and they have just 14.75 million in cap space for 2026, 25th in the NFL. By not going through a full teardown, they will probably win a couple more games than they otherwise would have, but it seems highly unlikely this team will compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.

Prediction: 2-15, 4th in AFC North

San Francisco 49ers 2025 NFL Season Preview

May 12, 2025July 29, 2025 stevenlourie 2025 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Quarterback

The 49ers were probably the most disappointing team in the league last season, going from a 12-win season and a Super Bowl appearance in 2023 to being seen as one of the early favorites in 2024 to finishing with a 6-11 record and in last place in their division. This off-season, the 49ers lost among the most key players of any team in the league, without replacing most of them. Despite that, I still like the 49ers’ chances for a bounce back season, for several reasons.

For one, the 49ers were statistically much better than their record suggested last season, as they finished the season 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more predictive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record. The 49ers did that despite having the most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league last season, by a wide margin. In fact, there was a bigger gap between the 49ers and the second most injury plagued team in the league last season than there was between the second most injury plagued team and the 12th most injury plagued team.

The 49ers lost a lot this off-season, but many of the players they lost either missed significant time and/or had down years in 2024. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw missed all but 34 snaps due to injury last season. Interior defender Javon Hargrave was limited to 104 snaps in 3 games. Safety Talanoa Hufanga struggled with a 57.8 PFF grade in 304 snaps across 7 games after returning from injury. Cornerback Charvarius Ward missed five games and was not himself when on the field while dealing with tragedy in his personal life, finishing the season with just a 56.2 PFF grade. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel only missed two games, but was limited due to injury in numerous games, resulting in a career low 1.60 yards per route run average and a career low 70.9 PFF grade.

When the 49ers were at their best in 2023, they were led by nine players between their offense and defense who played at least 700 snaps and finished with a PFF grade above 80: quarterback Brock Purdy, running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams, edge defender Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, and cornerback Charvarius Ward. In 2024, Purdy missed two games and did not seem to be himself when he returned, McCaffrey was not himself across 167 snaps in four games, Samuel and Ward missed time and were not themselves when on the field, as mentioned, Williams missed seven games, Aiyuk missed ten games, Kittle missed two games, Bosa missed three games, and Warner did not miss a game, but played through a broken bone in his leg for most of the season.

Samuel and Ward are gone, Kittle and Williams are on the wrong side of 30 and could decline this season, and Aiyuk and McCaffrey still have significant injury concerns, but overall I would expect much more in 2025 out of those core players from the 49ers’ 2023 team than the 49ers got from them in 2024. The 49ers also drafted well in the 2024 NFL Draft, with second round pick cornerback Renaldo Green (69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps), third round pick guard Dominick Puni (80.5 PFF grade across 1,078 snaps), and fourth round pick safety Malik Mustapha (63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps) all showing a lot of promise as rookies, not to mention first round wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who could take a step forward in year two. With those players added to the mix and healthier seasons from their core players from 2023, the 49ers still have a team that could compete in the NFC in 2025, assuming they don’t have the historically bad injury luck they had last season.

The biggest reason the 49ers had to let so many players leave this off-season was the fact that they owe quarterback Brocky Purdy a huge raise from his rookie deal. Purdy got a lot of criticism for the 49ers’ struggles last season and his TD/INT ratio noticeably declined from 31/11 to 20/12 between 2023 and 2024, but yards per attempt is much more predictive year-to-year than TD/INT ratio and he still ranked 3rd in yards per attempt (8.49), despite not having as good of a supporting cast as he had in years past and despite playing through injury in his final five starts of the season.

Overall, Purdy finished the season with a PFF grade of 82.4 in 2024, 11th among quarterbacks, after posting a 88.4 PFF grade, 4th among quarterbacks, in his first full season as a starter in 2023. He has proven he can produce at a high level even without an elite supporting cast and that he can post MVP level production with an elite supporting cast, so he deserves a top quarterback contract, at least more than most of the quarterbacks who have gotten them recently, including Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and possibly Jared Goff.

Purdy will be backed up this season by free agent signing Mac Jones. Jones is a bust as a former first round pick, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 6.75 YPA, 54 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions in 49 starts in four seasons in the league since being selected 15th overall in 2021, but he’s a solid backup, he came relatively cheaply (2-year, 8.41 million), and he is a good fit for the 49ers’ scheme. At the very least, he should be an upgrade over Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs, who combined for 63.6% completion, 7.27 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the absence of Purdy last season. The 49ers would likely still be in trouble if Purdy suffered a serious injury and Jones had to play for a significant period of time, but that’s true of almost every team and Jones is above average as far as backup options go.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The 49ers’ running backs were probably their position group that was hardest hit by injuries last season. Not only did Christian McCaffrey miss most of the season and disappoint in limited action when on the field, but top backup Elijah Mitchell missed all of the season and expected third string Jordan Mason, who surprised as the lead back in the absence of McCaffrey and Mitchell with 5.17 YPC on 153 carries, also missed five games, leaving the 49ers down to their 4th or even 5th string running back at times.

Mitchell and Mason were not brought back this off-season, but 2024 4th round pick Isaac Guerendo flashed potential as a rookie last season, with 5.00 YPC on 84 carries and 1.42 yards per route run as a receiver, and the 49ers also added Oregon’s Jordan James in the 5th round of this year’s draft, so their depth situation isn’t bad. Of course, if Christian McCaffrey does end up missing more time this time, it would be a huge blow to this offense even if their depth at the position isn’t bad.

At his best, McCaffrey is the best all-purpose running back in the league, averaging 256 carries for 1,271 rushing yards (4.96 YPC) and 11 rushing touchdowns with an average 94/794/6 slash line and 1.69 yards per route run in his last four healthy seasons in 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023, but he has also been limited to 3 games, 7 games, and 4 games in 2020, 2021, and 2024 respectively, so the injury risk is obvious. Making matters worse, McCaffrey is now heading into his age 29 season with 1,871 career touches, which is a relatively advanced age with a relatively high career usage for a running back, which, not only could increase his injury risk, but could prevent him from being at his top form even when on the field. Ultimately, I would expect a lot more out of McCaffrey in 2025 than 2024, even if he’s not at his best, but the injury and age risk is obvious as well.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

With Deebo Samuel having a down year and Brandon Aiyuk missing all but seven games last season, Jauan Jennings surprisingly stepped up and had a career year with a 77/975/6 slash line and 2.26 yards per route run (14th among eligible wide receivers), after combining for just 78 catches, 963 yards, and 7 touchdowns across his first four seasons in the league from 2020-2023, when he averaged just 1.23 yards per route run. Jennings is a one-year wonder and might not be as efficient as he was a year ago, but Samuel is gone and Aiyuk could be out until mid-season as he recovers from a multi-ligament tear in his knee, so Aiyuk could see even more playing time than a year ago, when he ranked just 48th among wide receivers in routes run.

Ricky Pearsall, their first round pick in 2024, also figures to have a big role this season. He had an underwhelming rookie year with a 31/400/3 slash line on 1.31 yards per route run, but he has a valid excuse, missing the first six games of the season after an off-season gunshot wound, which likely led to him not being 100% all season even when he did play. Now in his second season in the league, he has the upside to take a big step forward. Jennings will probably lead 49ers wide receivers in production, but Pearsall probably has the highest upside of any of their options, aside from Aiyuk, who obviously has a serious injury concern.

When Aiyuk is not on the field, veteran free agent addition DeMarcus Robinson will likely be the 49ers’ #3 receiver behind Jennings and Pearsall. He’s an underwhelming option though, as the 505 receiving yards he had last season was the highest total of his 9-year career, a career in which he has averaged just 0.96 yards per route run, and now he is heading into his age 31 season, so he almost definitely is what he is at this point of his career and easily could regress and be even less effective than he has been throughout his career. He could face competition for his role from 2024 4th round pick Jacob Cowing, who played 106 nondescript snaps as a rookie, and 4th round rookie Jordan Watkins, but Robinson will likely be ahead of Cowing and Watkins on the depth chart and, even if he isn’t, it’s unlikely Cowing or Watkins would be any better.

Obviously the big question mark in this receiving corps is Aiyuk. In his last full season in 2023, Aiyuk was one of the best receivers in the league, totaling a 75/1342/7 slash line on just 105 targets, averaging 3.01 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers, and posting a 92.3 PFF grade, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. However, in addition to dealing with a significant injury, he is also a one-year wonder in terms of performing at that level, averaging just 1.78 yards per route run, with a career high of 1.91 yards per route run in his other four seasons in the league. Even in 2024 before his injury, he had just a 25/374/0 slash line and 1.74 yards per route run in seven games. Aiyuk’s return from injury could still be a big boost for this offense, but I wouldn’t expect him to be anywhere near his 2023 form.

Tight end George Kittle will remain a big part of the offense. His age is becoming a concern, now going into his age 32 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, recording the second highest receiving yardage total of his career last season with a 78/1106/8 slash line on just 94 targets, and, even if he does decline a little bit, he will likely remain one of the best tight ends in the league because he is declining from such a high base point. In addition to averaging 2.48 yards per route run and a 86/1191/7 slash line per 17 games over the past seven seasons, he is also an elite run blocker, leading to him receiving PFF grades of 89.7, 95.0, 84.9, 90.9, 82.0, 87.6, and 92.1 over those seven seasons.

Eric Saubert was the #2 tight end last season, but he wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season and instead was replaced with Luke Farrell on a 3-year, 15.75 million dollar deal. Saubert had a 51.2 PFF grade across 377 snaps last season, so it won’t be hard for Jarrell to be better, but he was still likely overpaid as a free agent. Jarrell is a capable blocker, which is primarily what his role will be in San Francisco, but he has only averaged 0.96 yards per route run with 36 catches in 66 career games, so he won’t be much more of a factor in the passing game than Saubert was. This is still a talented receiving corps, even with Deebo Samuel gone, Brandon Aiyuk likely to miss the start of the season, and George Kittle getting older, but they are not the elite unit they were in 2023.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Getting left tackle Trent Williams back from injury will also be a big boost for this offense, though with him coming off of a significant injury and going into his age 37 season, it is fair to question if he will be the same player. Williams has exceeded a 75 grade on PFF in every season since 2011 though, with 10 seasons over 80, including an 85.6 PFF grade last season before his injury, so, even if he isn’t quite the same, the future Hall of Famer should still remain at least an above average left tackle, barring a massive decline.

Left guard Aaron Banks left as a free agent this off-season, one of the few players the 49ers lost this off-season who was actually healthy last season, but he was a middling starter with a 65.4 PFF grade in 13 starts, so it’s not as if he’s irreplaceable. In his place, the 49ers will likely start Ben Bartch. Bartch has only started 22 games in five seasons in the league, with a career high of 11 starts back in 2021, but he has mostly been decent when called upon, finishing above 60 on PFF in every season except his rookie season, and he flashed a lot of potential in limited action last season, with a 74.8 PFF grade across 65 snaps.

Bartch is still a projection to a season-long starting role, but the 49ers have a history of getting the most out of their offensive lineman, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he proved to be a capable starter. His primary competition for the job is Spencer Burford, a 2022 4th round pick who struggled with PFF grades of 49.6 and 50.4 across 29 starts in his first two seasons in the league, before posting a 57.6 PFF grade across 113 snaps as a reserve in 2024. Bartch should beat him out for Aaron Banks’ old job unless something strange happens.

Center is also somewhat of a concerning position for the 49ers. Jake Brendel remains as the starter, after making all possible 51 starts over the past three seasons, but he has been middling at best in those three seasons, with PFF grades of 64.9, 63.9, and 65.0, and now he heads into his age 33 season and could decline, which would likely push him down into below average starter territory. If Brendel struggles, the 49ers’ other option is Matt Hennessy, a 2020 3rd round pick who excelled as a run blocker with a 88.1 PFF run blocking grade in 17 starts in 2021, but he also struggled mightily in pass protection with a 50.5 PFF pass blocking grade that season and, aside from that season, he has only ever played 398 snaps and started 5 games in his other four seasons in the league.

Fortunately, the 49ers found a steal in the third round of last year’s draft in Dominick Puni, who started all 17 games for the 49ers at right guard last season and was PFF’s 8th highest ranked guard with a 80.5 grade. Even if Puni isn’t quite as good again in 2025, he should remain at least an above average starter and he has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best guards in the league. He’ll continue starting next to right tackle Colton McKivitz, who wasn’t quite as good last season as Puni was at right guard, but who still had a solid season, with a 72.2 PFF grade in 17 starts.

A 2020 5th round pick, McKivitz played sparingly in his first three seasons in the league, but had a solid 65.1 PFF grade while also making all 17 starts in his first season as a starter in 2023, before taking another step forward in 2024. Now with two solid seasons as a starter under his belt, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025, still only his age 29 season. McKivitz and Trent Williams will likely be backed up by swing tackle DJ Humphries. Humphries finished above 60 on PFF in nine straight seasons from 2015-2023, but he missed 49 games due to injury over that stretch, played just 92 snaps last season primarily as a reserve, and now he is going into his age 32 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He’s probably still a good swing tackle option though. The 49ers have some question marks at left guard and center, but this should still remain at least a solid offensive line, especially if left tackle Trent Williams stays healthy and continues to avoid declining for another season, despite his age.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The 49ers didn’t have quite as many injuries on defense as they did on offense, but they did have some key players miss significant time. Stud defensive end Nick Bosa missed three games and he was sorely missed in those three games, as he had a 91.0 PFF grade across 693 snaps, excelling both as a run defender and a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 16 hits, and a 16.4% pressure rate, while none of the 49ers’ other edge defenders finished with a PFF grade above 60 on the season.

Bosa’s dominant play in 2025 when healthy was no surprise, as he has consistently been one of the best defensive players in the league since being the second overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, finishing above 80 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, including three straight seasons over 90. In total, he has 62.5 sacks, 108 hits, and a 16.2% pressure rate in 82 career games. Still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Bosa again in 2025 and, aside from last season and a 2020 campaign ended by a torn ACL, he has played at least 16 games in every season in the league, so I wouldn’t necessarily classify him as injury prone.

The rest of the 49ers’ edge defender group could be better this season too, after adding Georgie’s Mykel Williams in the first round of the draft. Williams is raw, particularly as a pass rusher, but he should still be able to be an upgrade as a rookie and he has a huge upside long-term. He figures to replace veteran Leonard Floyd as the starter opposite Bosa and, while Floyd had 8.5 sacks last season, that was mostly because of Bosa facing double teams and causing disruption opposite him, as Floyd finished the season with a 53.5 PFF grade across 604 snaps, so it wouldn’t be hard for Williams to be better overall than Floyd was last season.

The rest of this edge defender group consists of holdovers who struggled a year ago, most notably Sam Okuayinonu, who had a 54.1 PFF grade across 451 snaps, Yetur Gross-Matos, who had a 51.5 PFF grade across 367 snaps, and Robert Beal, who had a 55.3 PFF grade across 149 snaps. Okuayinonu is a 2022 undrafted free agent who had played just 105 mediocre snaps in his career prior to last season, so he’s unlikely to ever develop into even a useful rotational player.

Gross-Matos was a second round pick in 2020 by the Panthers, but has finished below 60 on PFF in three of five seasons in the league and, now going into his age 27 season, is running out of time to deliver on his upside. Beal was a fifth round pick in 2023 and has shown very little across 188 career snaps. The 49ers are likely to get a healthier season out of Nick Bosa and the addition of Mykel Williams should make the rest of this edge defender group better in 2025 by default, but there are still significant depth concerns at this position.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The 49ers also used significant draft capital on the interior defender position this year, taking Alfred Collins in the second round and CJ West in the fourth round, but this is still an underwhelming position group. Even though they were drafted two rounds apart, Collins and West are similar prospects, earning third round grades from PFF, excelling against the run in their final collegiate season, ranking 5th and 9th in run defense grade on PFF, but also possessing limited athleticism and pass rush upside.

One or both of Collins and West figure to play a significant role in an unsettled position group this season. Javon Hargrave missed all but 104 snaps in three games last season, so his departure this off-season won’t hurt this team much, nor will the loss of Maliek Collins, who had a 57.9 PFF grade across 715 snaps, but the rest of this position group still consists of a mostly mediocre group of holdovers, including Jordan Elliott (440 snaps), Evan Anderson (267 snaps), Kalia Davis (259 snaps), and Kevin Givens (185 snaps).

Elliott struggled with a 47.6 PFF grade last season, which is nothing new for him, as the 5-year veteran has finished below 60 on PFF in every season in the league, including four straight seasons below 50. Davis was also terrible last season with a 47.3 PFF grade, in the first significant action of the 2022 6th round pick’s career. Anderson wasn’t terrible last season with a 60.8 PFF grade, but it came in very limited action and he was an undrafted free agent in 2024, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he never developed into even a consistently capable rotational player. Givens, meanwhile, is a 6-year veteran who has averaged 261 snaps per season in his career, while never finishing above 60 on PFF for a season, including three seasons below 50 and a 49.6 PFF grade in 2024. With rookies set to play a big role amidst a mediocre group of holdovers, the interior defender position figures to be a big position of weakness for the 49ers again in 2025.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

As I mentioned earlier, linebacker Fred Warner played most of last season through a broken bone in his leg, which makes it even more impressive that he had a 89.2 PFF grade across 997 snaps, while not missing a game. For Warner, it was his fourth season over 80 on PFF in the past five seasons, including a career best 90.2 PFF grade in 2023. In seven seasons in the league, he has missed just one game, while averaging 60.9 snaps per game in an every down role. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect another dominant season from him in 2025, perhaps even better than a year ago if he’s healthier.

Dee Winters figures to be the 49ers other starting linebacker next to Warner. Winters showed some potential last season with a 66.4 PFF grade across 398 snaps last season, after he took over the starting role down the stretch last season from veteran De’Vondre Campbell, who had a mediocre 58.3 PFF grade across 719 snaps and was not retained this off-season. Winters could continue being a solid starter into 2025, but he was only a 6th round pick in 2023 and struggled across 61 rookie season snaps before showing potential last season, so he’s still very unproven.

The 49ers also don’t have a good alternative if Winters cannot continue playing at the level he played at down the stretch last season. The rest of the 49ers’ linebacker depth chart consists of Luke Gifford, a career special teamer who has played 288 mediocre snaps on defense in six seasons in the league, 2024 7th round pick Tatum Bethune, who played just 52 snaps as a rookie, and some former undrafted free agents who have never played a snap. Warner is one of the best and more durable linebackers in the league and Winters at least has potential, but depth is a big concern at this position, particularly if Winters is unable to make good on his upside.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned earlier that the 49ers did not retain Chavarius Ward this off-season, after he had a 56.2 PFF grade across 694 snaps last season. The 49ers also did not bring back Isaac Yiadom, who was also mediocre with a 59.5 PFF grade across 488 snaps. In their absence, the 49ers will be expecting more out of 2024 2nd round pick Renaldo Green, who flashed potential with a 69.2 PFF grade across 675 snaps as a rookie and who should be able to translate that into a slightly larger role in 2025, now as a full-time starter opposite fellow holdover Deommodore Lenoir, who had a 67.3 PFF grade across 922 snaps in 15 games last season.

A fifth round pick in 2021, Lenoir took a couple years to develop, struggling with a 57.1 PFF grade across 238 snaps as a rookie and continuing to struggle in a bigger role in his second season in the league with a 55.9 PFF grade across 887 snaps, before breaking out as a starter with a 72.5 PFF grade across 981 snaps in his third season in the league in 2023, which he then carried into 2024. He should remain a solid starter this season, still only in his age 26 season.

Green and Lenoir should be a solid starting duo, but the third cornerback role is a bit of a question mark. Free agent addition Tre Brown is probably the favorite for the job and the 2021 fourth round pick wasn’t bad in a similar role with a 62.8 PFF grade across 603 snaps in 2023, but he has played just 566 snaps in his other three seasons in the league combined, so he’s not the most proven option. His biggest competition for the job will be third round rookie Upton Stout, who played at a high level at a small school at Western Kentucky, but who lacks elite athleticism to make up for his lack of size and, as a result, could struggle to translate his game to the NFL. The 49ers also have Darrell Luter, a 2023 5th round pick who has played just 67 snaps in his career, and Tre Avery, a 2022 undrafted free agent who has played just 651 snaps over the past three seasons with the Titans and who was not tendered as a restricted free agent this off-season.

The 49ers also didn’t retain Talanoa Hufanga this off-season and he also didn’t contribute in much of a positive way last season, in an injury plagued season in which he had a mediocre 57.8 PFF grade across just 308 snaps in seven games. Malik Mustapha, a 2024 4th round pick, had already taken his starting job even before Hufanga wasn’t re-signed and had a 63.9 PFF grade across 755 snaps as a rookie, so he looks like a solid starter long-term, though in the short-term he is questionable for the start of the season as he recovers from a torn ACL. If he misses time or isn’t the same right away when he returns, the 49ers would likely turn to free agent acquisition Jason Pinnock.

Pinnock has made 32 starts over the past two seasons, but has been inconsistent, with a 67.8 PFF grade in 2023, but a 54.5 PFF grade in 2024. He’s not a bad reserve option and spot starter, but the 49ers are definitely hoping Mustapha can return sooner rather than later. The 49ers also signed Richie Grant this off-season, a 2021 2nd round pick who started 32 games for the Falcons between the 2022 and 2023 season, but who was also inconsistent, with a 64.9 PFF grade in 2022 and a 51.5 PFF grade in 2023, before being benched and playing just 165 snaps in 2024. Like Pinnock, Grant is an option to start in Mustapha’s absence, but would be best as a reserve.

Ji’Ayir Brown is locked into one of the starting safety jobs. A 2023 3rd round pick, Brown flashed a lot of potential in limited action as a rookie with a 77.9 PFF grade across 396 snaps and, while he couldn’t quite translate that into a larger role in 2024, he still wasn’t bad with a 64.8 PFF grade across 886 snaps and, now in his third season in the league, he has the upside to take a step forward. He should at least be a capable starter, with the upside to develop into an above average starter. This isn’t a great secondary, but, even with some off-season losses, they aren’t really any worse in the secondary than they were a year ago.

Grade: B-

Kicker

The 49ers used a third round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on kicker Jake Moody, but he has been a huge disappointment thus far, costing the 49ers 3.71 points below average as a rookie and then plummeting to 12.2 points below average in 2024, third worst in the NFL. The 49ers did not bring in another kicker this off-season, so they are giving Moody another chance and he could be better than a year ago, but he also figures to be on a pretty short leash and could be replaced with a free agent mid-season if he struggles.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The 49ers won just six games last season, but they were much better than their record suggested, ranking 2nd in yards per play differential and 5th in first down rate differential, which are both much more productive year-to-year than a team’s win-loss record, and they did that despite being by far the most injury plagued team in the league. The 49ers seemingly lost a lot in free agency this off-season, but the majority of the players they lost this off-season either missed significant chunks of last season or did not play at a high level. Most of the core from the team who made the Super Bowl two seasons ago is still there and, while this team isn’t as good overall as they were two years ago, they’re still much more talented than you would think if you just looked at their record last season and the off-season they had. They also go from having arguably the toughest schedule in the league last season to arguably the easiest this season. They should win among the most games in the NFC this season.

Prediction: 15-2, 1st in NFC West

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