Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)

The Bears finished the regular season with a better record than the Packers, but the Packers were statistically the better team this season, finishing with a yards per play differential of +0.60 and a first down rate differential of +1.92%, as opposed to -0.30 and -1.12% for the Bears, which are both much more predictive than win/loss record. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Packers finished about 4.2 points better than the Bears and ranked 7th, as opposed to 19th for the Bears.

The one statistic in which the Bears had a huge edge was turnover margin, with the Bears leading the league at +22, and the Packers ranking 13th at +1, but turnover margin tends to be very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis. Teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +15 or better, on average, actually have a slight negative turnover margin in the regular season. Despite the Bears huge edge in turnover margin, the Packers actually had the better point differential this season (+31 vs. +26) and these two teams could have finished with opposite records, with the Bears going 7-4 in one-score games and the Packers going 4-5-1.

One thing in the Bears’ favor is they did get better as the season went on. On offense, second year quarterback Caleb Williams improved as the year went on while four rookies, wide receiver Luther Burden, tight end Colston Loveland, running back Kyle Monangai, and left tackle Ozzy Trapilo, got more playing time as the season went on and the offense improved as a result. Meanwhile, their defense is now healthier than it was for most of the season, with cornerback Jaylon Johnson (10 games missed), cornerback Kyler Gordon (14 games missed), linebacker TJ Edwards (7 games missed), and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (4 games missed) all healthy for this game. On the other hand, the Packers got worse as the season went on, particularly due to the loss of tight end Tucker Kraft, edge defender Micah Parsons, and interior defender Devonte Wyatt for the season with injuries.

That being said, these two teams did face each other late in the season and the Packers were an onside kick recovery away from winning both games. Micah Parsons did play in the first game, but he didn’t play in the second game and neither did talented safety Evan Williams or stud right tackle Zach Tom, while Jordan Love left with a concussion in the first half. All three players will play in this game, so the Packers will be healthier in this game and they were in a game in which they easily could have won in Chicago a few weeks ago. The Bears do get wide receiver Rome Odunze and cornerback Kyler Gordon back, who didn’t play in the last matchup between these two teams, but those players don’t make as much of a difference as the players the Packers get back. 

Overall, the gap between these two teams in my roster rankings is not as high as it is in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, but I still give the Packers a 3.5-point edge and, even on the road, I think the Packers are more likely to win than not. Unfortunately, the odds makers don’t really seem to disagree because they have made this an even line, so, while I still like the Packers for pick ‘em purposes, there isn’t nearly enough here for them to be worth betting.

Update: Zach Tom is surprisingly out for the Packers and, despite that, this line has shifted to favoring Green Bay by two points. I am flipping this pick, still for a no confidence pick.

Green Bay Packers 24 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against the spread: Chicago +2

Confidence: None