Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Both of these teams finished the regular season significantly worse than their record would suggest in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate differential and yards per play differential, both of which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record. The Texans finished 14th at +0.58, while the Steelers finished 22nd at -1.65. Both teams benefited significantly from the turnover margin, with the Texans ranking 2nd at +17 and the Steelers ranking 4th at +12, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. On average, teams that finish the regular season with a turnover margin of +10 or better have an even turnover margin in the post-season and, as a result, cover the spread at just a 46.7% rate, including 45.2% as favorites.

However, it seems to be only the Steelers that are viewed as not as good as their record by the public, as the Texans are favored by 3.5 points in Pittsburgh. With only about two points between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency, we are getting great value with the Steelers at that number. The Steelers are also historically a great bet as home underdogs in the Mike Tomlin era, going 20-9-4 ATS and 18-15 straight up, outperforming the spread on average by 3.7 points, more than the gap between these two teams in schedule adjusted efficiency. I think there is a good chance the Steelers pull the straight up upset at home and, even if they don’t, I like getting 3.5 points to play with, with about a quarter of games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Houston Texans 17 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh +3.5

Confidence: High