Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

The Jaguars started the season 4-1, but they had a league leading +10 turnover margin in those games, which is very unpredictive on a week-to-week basis, so their hot start looked like a fluke. Sure enough, the Jaguars saw their turnover luck stop and had a +0 turnover margin in their next four games, in which they went 1-3, with their only win coming by one point in overtime to the Raiders, making their early season hot start look like the fluke that their early turnover luck suggested it was. However, the Jaguars then won their final eight games of the season from that point on and, more importantly, they did that despite only a +3 turnover margin in those games.

The reasons for the Jaguars second half turnaround are complex, but there are some obvious culprits. For one, they got linebacker Devin Lloyd and tight end Brenton Strange back from injury. Strange missed five games in the middle of the season, including all four games in their mid-season 1-3 stretch. In fact, the Jaguars are 11-1 in games in which Strange plays this season. Likewise, Lloyd missed two of the four games during the Jaguars’ mid-season 1-3 stretch and the Jaguars are 12-3 when he plays this season.

The Jaguars also discovered hidden gems on their roster down the stretch. On defense, safety Antonio Johnson, who finished with a 87.4 PFF grade, played 583 snaps in the Jaguars’ final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 77 snaps in the first six games of the season. Jarrian Jones finished as the Jaguars’ best graded cornerback on PFF with a 78.4 PFF grade and he played 440 snaps in the Jaguars’ final ten games, as opposed to 77 in their first seven games. 

On offense, Cole Van Lanen was the Jaguars’ highest graded offensive lineman on PFF with a 79.3 grade and he started the final eleven games of the season, after playing just 25 snaps in the first six games of the season. Parker Washington was the Jaguars’ leading receiver and highest graded wide receiver in terms of PFF grade at 79.9 and he played 490 snaps in the final eleven games of the season, as opposed to 182 in the first six games. Additionally, the Jaguars traded for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers at the trade deadline and proceeded to go 8-1 after acquiring him. Between Johnson, Jones, Van Lanen, Washington, Meyers, Strange, and Lloyd, seven of the Jaguars’ most important players in the second half of the season all either missed time with injury, weren’t on the roster, or were reserves in the first half of the season.

On top of all of this, the Jaguars whole roster just seemed to play better down the stretch in the first year of a new, young, but talented coaching staff. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence exemplifies this, going from a 79.8 QB rating and a 68.8 PFF grade in the first eleven games of the season to a 110.7 QB rating and a 94.0 PFF grade in the final six games of the season. Lawrence benefitted from an improved supporting cast, but he also elevated his own level of play significantly down the stretch. The Jaguars finished the regular season ranked just 11th in schedule adjusted efficiency at 2.23 points above average, but because their roster got better down the stretch in so many ways, I have them 5.63 points above average in my roster rankings.

The Jaguars’ opponents this week, the Buffalo Bills, finished the regular season 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency at +5.52, possessing significant edges over the Jaguars in first down rate differential (+2.84% vs. +1.61%) and yards per play differential (+0.67 vs. +0.26), which tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record, but my roster rankings have these two teams close to even and that’s taking into account that the Bills come into the post-season healthier than they have been in recent weeks. This line is even, but, with these two teams about equal and the Jaguars at home, the Jaguars should be favored at least slightly, with my calculated line at Jacksonville -2. There isn’t enough here for the Jaguars to be bettable, but I like them to win straight up for pick ‘em purposes.

Jacksonville Jaguars 26 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville PK

Confidence: None