Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)

The big knock against the Patriots is their weak schedule and it’s a fair point, as they have faced one of the weakest schedules in NFL history, including just three games against teams with a winning record. However, the Patriots dominated their weak schedule, finishing 2nd in yards per play differential (+1.02), 3rd in first down rate differential (+3.44%), and 3rd in point differential (+170). Even when their schedule is taken into account, the Patriots finished 4th in overall efficiency at +4.77, about 4 points above their opponents this week, the Los Angeles Chargers.

With this line favoring the Patriots by 3.5, you would think the Patriots’ 4-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency would mean the Patriots should be the right side at home, but the Chargers have a couple trends working in their favor. For one, the Chargers have next to no homefield advantage and, as a result, are 42-34 ATS on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2017. On top of that, quarterbacks who are home favorites in the first playoff start of their career, like New England’s Drake Maye, are just 6-16 ATS since 2002. That’s not enough for the Chargers to be bettable, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes at +3.5.

New England Patriots 27 Los Angeles Chargers 24

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +3.5

Confidence: Low