San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

The 49ers were statistically the better of these two teams in the regular season. While the Eagles had the edge in yards per play differential, ranking 10th at +0.29 while the 49ers ranked 18th at -0.11, the 49ers had a bigger edge in first down rate differential, ranking 8th at +1.78%, as opposed to 17th at +0.20% for the Eagles, and first down rate differential is more predictive than yards per play differential. 

The Eagles were a much better defensive team, ranking 7th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, as opposed to 27th for the 49ers, but the 49ers were a much better offensive team, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, as opposed to 22nd for the Eagles, and offensive efficiency tends to be much more predictive than defensive efficiency. In terms of overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which weights offensive efficiency higher than defensive efficiency, the 49ers have a 3.7-point edge, suggesting this line should favor the visiting 49ers by about 1.5.

Unfortunately, my roster rankings tell a different story, primarily because these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise heading into the post-season. The Eagles’ offense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of right tackle Lane Johnson from a 7-game absence and the Eagles’ defense should be better now than it was overall on the season due to the return of interior defender Jalen Carter from a 6-game absence and the mid-season trade addition of edge defender Jaelan Phillips. On the other hand, the 49ers offense looks likely to be without left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, while their defense, which has already been without its two best players, edge defender Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner, since weeks 3 and 6 respectively, now is expected to be without their next two best linebackers Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune.

That being said, I am still picking the 49ers in this game with the Eagles being 4.5-point favorites because the Eagles have played a lot of close games. Their only multi-score wins this season have come against the Giants, Raiders, and Commanders, who were three of the worst teams in the league. In six matchups with playoff qualifiers, they won by more than 4.5 twice and one of those involved a last second return of a blocked field goal to push the margin of victory from 1 to 7. So in six tries, the Eagles would have had a legitimate cover of a 4.5-point spread just once against playoff caliber teams. Even with the current injury situations of these two teams taken into account, my calculated line is just Philadelphia -2.5. I am not betting on the 49ers for now, but if we get good news on some of the 49ers’ currently questionable players and/or this line moves up when players are ruled out, I could end up betting on the 49ers.

Update: Trent Williams returned to practice today, giving him at least a chance to play this week. Despite that, this line has moved to up +6. I am going to lock in a bet on the 49ers at that number.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +6

Confidence: Medium