Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)

These two teams met in the first round of the post-season last year and the Bills covered fairly easily as 8-point favorites, winning 31-7. This time around, the Broncos are favored by 1.5. What has changed since then? Well for one, this game is in Denver rather than Buffalo, which matters somewhat, but not nearly enough for a 9.5-point line movement. It would also seem the Broncos are better this year than last year, going from 10-7 to 14-3, while the Bills are worse, going from 13-4 to 12-5. However, that might not be as true as it seems.

The Bills have fallen from a +157 point differential in 2024 to a +116 point differential this season, but, overall, their team is very similar to a year ago. Of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Broncos, at least 15 and up to 18 of 22 are expected to play in this game, depending on the final injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, actually had a better point differential last season (+114) compared to this season (+90), as the biggest reason for their improved record this season is that they went from 1-6 in one-score games to 9-2. Meanwhile, of their top-11 players in terms of snaps played on either side of the ball in last year’s game against the Bills, 16 of 22 are expected to play in this game.

Two of the six who won’t play for the Broncos this season that played last year are center Luke Wattenburg and safety Brandon Jones, who both got hurt down the stretch this season and could prove to be big absences in this game. Meanwhile, the Bills are relatively healthy. Tight end Dalton Kincaid missed 5 games this season, right tackle Spencer Brown missed 3, interior defender Daquan Jones missed 5, and fellow interior defender Ed Oliver missed 15, but only Oliver is at risk of missing this game. At the very least, I like betting on the money line this week, as the Bills should be favored in this game, but I may end up betting on the spread as well, depending on the final injury report.

Buffalo Bills 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +1.5

Confidence: Low