Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3)

The Patriots enter this game with significant edges in first down rate differential (+3.36% vs. +1.93%) and yards per play differential (+1.10 vs. +0.48) compared to the Texans, which are both much more predictive than win/loss records. The Texans have faced a much tougher schedule, but, even when schedule is taken into account, the Patriots have about a 3-point edge in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is based on first down rate and yards per play differential. 

A big reason for that is schedule adjusted efficiency weights offensive performance higher than defensive performance, because offensive performance tends to be more consistent week-to-week. The Texans have a big edge on defense, about 5.5 points, but the Patriots have an even bigger edge on offense, about 7 points, and that tends to be more predictive of future winning. On top of that, the Texans have the biggest injury in this game, as their top wide receiver Nico Collins is expected to be out due to concussion, while the Patriots are close to fully healthy. Given all of that, this line is a little short, favoring the Patriots at home by only 3 points. My calculated line is Houston -5.5. There isn’t quite enough line value here for the Patriots to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 21 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: New England -3

Confidence: Low