New England Patriots (17-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in Super Bowl LX

The Seahawks are the better of these two teams, but I don’t think the gap between these two teams is big enough to justify a 4.5-point spread, with about 30% of games decided by 4 points or fewer. The Seahawks rank 1st in the NFL in yards per play at +1.17 and 1st in first down rate differential at +5.43%, but the Patriots aren’t far behind, ranking 2nd in yards per play at +1.03 and 3rd in first down rate differential at +3.01%. The Seahawks have faced a significantly tougher schedule and have better special teams, but, even when those are factored in, the Seahawks are only about 4 points ahead of the Patriots in schedule adjusted efficiency.

My roster rankings have these two teams even closer than that, with about a 3-point gap between these two teams, as a result of the Patriots being in a slightly better injury situation. Both teams have had key players miss time and return this season, but the Patriots have had slightly more. For the Patriots, the key players who have missed time and returned are starting wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (3 games missed), lead running back Rhomandre Stevenson (3 games missed), starting wide receiver Mack Collins (4 games missed), starting left tackle Will Campbell (4 games missed), starting left guard Jared Wilson (4 games missed), top cornerback Christian Gonzalez (3 games missed), top linebacker Robert Spillane (4 games missed), top defensive tackle Milton Williams (5 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Anfernee Jennings (3 games missed) and Kryisis Tonga (4 games missed).

Meanwhile, for the Seahawks, their shorter list includes starting left tackle Charles Cross (3 games missed), starting center Jalen Sundell (4 games missed), top cornerback Devon Witherspoon (5 games missed), top safety Julian Love (9 games missed), slot cornerback Nick Emmanwori (3 games missed), and rotational defensive linemen Derick Hall (3 games missed), and Jarren Reed (4 games missed). The Patriots are also the healthier team going into this game, essentially at full strength, while the Seahawks continue to be without rotational running back Zach Charbonnet for the 3rd straight game. 

History is also not on the side of the Seahawks covering this spread. Since 2000, favorites of more than a field goal are just 2-11 ATS and 6-7 straight up in the Super Bowl. That alone isn’t a reason to bet the Patriots, but it backs up the rest of my analysis that suggests this line is a little too high. The Super Bowl is the most bet game of the season and the sportsbooks know they can boost the spread a little bit more than they otherwise would and casual bettors will still take the favorite, as they are in this game, with about 75% of the money on the Seahawks. I like the Patriots for a small wager.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New England Patriots 20

Pick against the spread: New England +4.5

Confidence: Medium