Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

The Steelers are 8-2, while the Browns are 2-8, so it might be surprising that the Steelers are only favored by 3.5 points in this game, even on the road. Most people seem to be surprised by the line, which is why about 87% of people are on the Steelers this week. This line seems to be a trap though, for several reasons. For one, 3.5 is a common trap line and, as a result, +3.5 covers the spread at a 52.0% rate, higher than any other single number. That’s because the average bettor doesn’t realize it’s actually a pretty high line. 

About 1 in 4 games are decided by three points or fewer, with 1 in 6 being decided by exactly three, while 4 and 5 are much less common outcomes, with only about 1 in 10 games being decided by either four or five points. In fact, in terms of real probability, the line 3.5 is actually closer to 6 than 3. If this line was 5.5, I suspect a lot more people would be on the Browns, but the odds makers made it 3.5 because they want a lot of bets on the Steelers, which normally means the smart play is to go the other way and specifically in this case I believe it is.

The Steelers’ record is impressive, but they’re actually negative in both yards per play differential (-0.30) and first down rate differential (-0.64%), which are much more predictive than win/loss record. Their offense in particular has struggled, averaging just 4.96 yards per play and a 27.92% first down rate, both well below the league averages of 5.42 and 30.77%. The biggest reason for the Steelers’ success this season is a +11 turnover margin, second best in the NFL, but turnover margins tend to have very little week-to-week correlation. 

The Steelers also historically have had a lot more success as underdogs or small favorites in the Mike Tomlin era than have had as bigger favorites, especially on the road. While they are 82-52 ATS as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since Tomlin’s first season in 2007, they are just 22-36 ATS as road favorites of a field goal or more over that stretch. That makes sense, as the Steelers traditionally are a conservative, defense led team that thrives off being overlooked, but that also struggles to win big when they’re expected to.

The Steelers especially struggle as big road favorites after a win, as their record as road favorites of a field goal or more falls to 10-25 ATS when the Steelers are coming off of a win, which they are after a close upset victory over the Ravens last week. That close victory also opens up another trend that works against the Steelers, as teams are just 25-46 ATS as road favorites after a win by 3 points or fewer as underdogs. After such a big win last week, it could be hard for the Steelers to bring their best effort for a 2-8 opponent, especially on a short week. Meanwhile, the Browns could be viewing this as their Super Bowl, similarly to how they upset the Ravens a few weeks back in a similar spot.

We’re not getting a ton of line value with the Browns, who have plenty of issues, hence their 2-8 record, but, their offense has been noticeably better since Jameis Winston became their quarterback and, given the Steelers’ issues on offense, my calculated line is Pittsburgh -3, which, as I mentioned, is more line value than it seems. That line value combined with the trends that go against the Steelers make the Browns bettable and, at the very least, they’re a good contrarian pick in pick ‘em leagues. I wouldn’t go crazy with this bet, but the Browns look like the right side for a variety of reasons.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 17

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5

Confidence: Medium