Author: stevenlourie

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2022 NFL Picks, 2022 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears, NFL Picks

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

The Bears traded a future first round pick to move up in the 2021 NFL Draft to select Justin Fields as their quarterback of the future. Fields is now going into his second season in the league, which is typically when teams like to load up their roster around a promising young quarterback to try to surround him with as much talent as possible, taking advantage of his cheap rookie contract. However, instead of building up a roster that ranked 18th in overall efficiency last season, the Bears took the opposite approach, stripping this roster of expensive veterans, most notably Khalil Mack, and saving a significant amount of cap space for 2023 and beyond, currently a league leading 104 million under next year’s cap. 

The teardown also didn’t net them a net first round pick, which they already lacked, having traded it to move up for Fields the previous year. The result is a roster that is one of the worst in the league, despite a promising young quarterback under center. To open the season, the Bears will host a 49ers team that is talented enough to make the playoffs, but I’m not sure the 49ers are healthy enough right now to cover this 7-point spread, even against a team like the Bears.

Already having lost a pair of offensive line starters this off-season in Laken Tomlinson and Alex Mack, the 49ers will also be without Daniel Brunskill in this matchup, while their secondary will be without top cornerback Jason Verrett and top safety Jimmie Ward. Meanwhile, their top offensive player George Kittle seems to be on the wrong side of questionable after not practicing all week and would likely not be the same if he did play, while unproven quarterback Trey Lance is coming back from a finger injury and making just his 3rd career start, having yet to show he’s not a downgrade on Jimmy Garoppolo. I have the 49ers calculated as 5-point favorites, so we’re getting some line value with the Bears, although not enough to be confident betting them.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: Low

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

The Packers were likely to see their win total regress regardless in 2022, needing to go 6-3 in games decided by 8 points or fewer to go 13-4 last season, finishing with just a +79 point differential (10th in the NFL) and a 11th ranked overall efficiency. A high winning percentage in close games is tough to sustain long-term, with even Aaron Rodgers winning just 56.6% of the games he has played in his career which have been decided by 8 points or fewer. However, on top of that, the Packers will be dealing with the loss of Davante Adams on offense, while Rodgers is now going into his age 39 season and would have been unlikely to repeat two of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame career even if Adams didn’t leave.

The Packers will get top cornerback Jaire Alexander back from injury, but offensive tackles David Bakhtari and Elgton Jenkins remain questionable to return from torn ACLs and may not be 100% even if they do play and they also have players like De’Vondre Campbell, Preston Smith, and Rasul Douglas who could struggle to repeat by far the best season of their careers. They should still be the favorites to win the NFC North, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Vikings seriously challenge for the division crown, depending on injuries. 

The Vikings have finished just 7-9 and 8-9 over the past two seasons, but missing key personnel on defense has been a big part of the problem, particularly Danielle Hunter, Michael Pierce, Anthony Barr, and Cameron Dantzler. Hunter and Dantzler could easily be healthier in 2022 though, while Pierce and Barr have been replaced by comparable talents and healthier players in Harrison Phillips and Jordan Hicks, with edge defender Za’Darius Smith also being added in free agency, a potentially huge addition if he too can stay healthy. Meanwhile, their offense figures to be better in 2022 with better coaching getting more out of all their talent.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting quite enough line value with the Vikings as mere 1.5-point home underdogs for them to be worth betting against the spread, but it’s worth noting that Aaron Rodgers’ career QB rating drops off about 10 points on the road as opposed to at home, a significantly bigger gap than the average quarterback, and the Vikings should be considered slight favorites in this one, so there’s some value taking the Vikings for a small bet on the money line at +105. The Vikings are also the pick against the spread for pick ‘em purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +1.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

The Titans finished last season at 12-5, with the AFC’s best record and #1 seed by virtue of tiebreakers, but they ranked just 19th in team efficiency, benefiting from a 6-2 record in one-score games and a +4 return touchdown margin, two things that would be tough to maintain long-term. They especially struggled without AJ Brown last season, which is a problem because they traded him this off-season and, while they have Robert Woods and Treylon Burks to replace him, they still figure to miss Brown significantly. 

On top of that, they lost a pair of starting offensive linemen and, while Derrick Henry will probably be healthier this season, he figures to not be nearly as productive as he’s been in the past, given his age, workload, and the declining talent and blocking around him on this offense. They’ll also be without top edge defender Harold Landry, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. If the Titans had just brought back last year’s exact team, they would be unlikely to match last year’s 12 wins, given that they benefited from things statistically they won’t be able to rely on going forward, but the Titans are also noticeably less talented on paper than a year ago, so they could easily be worse in efficiency this season than the 19th ranked finished they had last season, which would make them significantly below average.

The Titans are favored here by 5.5 points, which might seem like a lot of points for a team that I just described as below average, but the Giants might be one of the few teams that deserves to be underdogs of this many points in Tennessee, especially with the Giants missing their top two edge defenders Azeez Ojulari and Kayvon Thibodeaux with injury. We’re still getting a tiny bit of line value with the Giants according to my calculated line, but not nearly enough to take them with any confidence. This is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Tennessee Titans 22 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +5.5

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

The Texans won just four games last season and they were even worse than that suggests as their only win in which they won the first down rate battle was their week one home victory over a Jaguars team that finished with an even worse record at 3-14. In their other victory over the Jaguars, Texans lost the first down rate battle by 8.02%, only winning the game because they overperformed on third down (10/18 vs. 3/14), which is not as predictive as early downs. In their upset wins over the Chargers and Titans, the Texans won the turnover battle by 3 and 5 respectively, but lost the first down rate battle by 2.86% and 9.47% respectively. 

Meanwhile, most of the Texans’ losses were not close, coming by an average of 17.2 points per game, leading to the Texans ranking dead last in overall efficiency, over five points worse than the next closest team, with their defense and offense both ranking dead last in efficiency. They might not have had the worst record in the league last season, but they’re still probably starting from a lower base point than any team in the league. They should be better by default this season, but I would be surprised if they weren’t among the worst teams in the league this season and they’re likely to continue getting blown out by most above average opponents.

It’s unclear if the Colts are an above average opponent though. They finished last season ranked 12th in overall efficiency and upgraded their quarterback situation going from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan, but they also lost a pair of offensive line starters and will start the season without their top linebacker Shaq Leonard, one of the best players in the league at his position. We’re still getting a little bit of line value with the Colts, calculated as 7.5-point favorites, but not nearly enough for them to be worth betting with any confidence. This is a pick for pick ‘em purposes only.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Houston Texans 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: None

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)

The Chargers are one of my top contenders for the Super Bowl, bringing back every key player from an offense that ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency last season and drastically improving a defense that ranked just 24th in defensive efficiency a year ago by adding cornerback JC Jackson and edge defender Khalil Mack, both among the best players in the league at their respective positions and huge upgrades on the players they are replacing.

The Raiders made some splashy additions as well, adding edge defender Chandler Jones and wide receiver Davante Adams, but they also lost top cornerback Casey Hayward and they’re starting from a lower base point, having a -65 point differential to +15 for the Chargers last season, only sneaking ahead of the Chargers for a playoff spot when they won their final four games by a combined 12 points and went 4-0 on the season in overtime games.

That being said, I am not going to be betting on the Chargers this week, for a few reasons. For one, JC Jackson is out with injury, so the Chargers’ new look defense won’t be at full strength. Even still, I have the Chargers six points better than the Raiders in my roster rankings, but they will essentially be playing a road game in their home stadium in this game, with the vast majority of fans in attendance likely to be Raiders fans. They’re also in a potential look ahead spot with a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Chiefs on deck, with favorites covering at just a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football historically.

This line is also higher than some might realize, with the Chargers favored by 3.5 points and 1 in 4 games decided by three points or fewer. For this reason, favorites of 3.5 points cover at a lower rate than any other favorites, 46.8%, as odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, with bettors not realizing how high the line actually is. I’m still taking the Chargers for pick ‘em purposes because they’re a significantly better team even without JC Jackson, but I would need this line to drop down to three for the Chargers to be worth betting.

Los Angeles Chargers 26 Las Vegas Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3.5

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

The Lions have a good chance to take a big step forward on offense this season, but the biggest reason for that is that their offensive line should be healthier than a year ago, when their top two offensive linemen Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow both missed most of the season, and, unfortunately offensive line injuries remain a concern for the Lions in week 1, with right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai and his backup Tommy Kraemer both out and center Frank Ragnow considered a gametime decision and unlikely to be 100% even if he plays, after barely practicing all week. 

The Lions are likely to be one of the worst defenses in the league again this season, so if their offense can’t be effective, it will be hard for them to be competitive and, particularly if Ragnow can’t play, the Lions’ chances of being effective on offense take a big hit with their offensive line at less than full strength. Making matters worse, they’re facing an Eagles team that could be one of the better teams in the league this season, getting better on both sides of the ball this off-season, after finishing 9th in overall efficiency and making the post-season in 2021. 

The 2021 Eagles particularly played well against below average teams like the Lions, going 9-2 against non playoff qualifiers, with their wins coming by an average of 16.4 points per game, including a 44-6 victory in Detroit. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll blow the Lions out again, but my calculated line has the Eagles favored by seven and if Ragnow is ruled out, that would shoot even higher. This line is currently at -4.5 and I’m not sure if there’s enough line value for the Eagles to be bettable if Ragnow plays, but, depending on his status and where this line ends up, this could easily end up being a bet and the Eagles are the pick for pick ‘em purposes regardless.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

The Cardinals are one of my top picks to regress this season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

Making matters worse, the Cardinals will be even further short-handed this week, missing top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins due to suspension and his replacement Rondale Moore due to injury, as well as injured starting cornerback Trayvon Mullen, while starting tight end Zach Ertz, top interior defender JJ Watt, starting cornerback Byron Murphy, and starting left guard Justin Pugh all legitimately questionable for this team. On top of that, the Cardinals are facing a Chiefs team that should be among the best in the league again. 

The Chiefs losing top wide receiver Tyreek Hill this off-season got a lot of attention, but they did a good job reloading at the position, giving them a much deeper group than a year ago, even if it lacks a true #1 receiver, while their defense figures to be much better than their 29th ranked finish in defensive efficiency a year ago. Most of their defensive struggles were concentrated early last season when they had significant injury problems and, once they turned it around defensively, the Chiefs went on to win 11 of their final 13 games, with their only two losses coming against the AFC winning Bengals. 

I expect the Chiefs to continue being one of the best teams in the league even without Hill and have them calculated as 10-point favorites in Arizona against a Cardinals team that was likely to be below average this season even before all of their recent injuries. This line has moved up to Kansas City -6 due to the Cardinals’ injury situation, but it hasn’t moved high enough and we’re still getting enough line value with the Chiefs for them to be worth betting. The only thing preventing this from being a bigger play is that the Chiefs have to play again four days after this game in a huge divisional matchup against the Chargers on Thursday Night Football and could overlook this game a little bit as a result, with favorites covering at just a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football historically. 

That might not matter as much in week 1 though, especially since Andy Reid coached teams typically do well with extra time to plan, going 36-22-1 ATS in that spot all time, which might cancel out the other trend. Depending on who ultimately is ruled out for the Cardinals and where this line ends up, I may consider increasing this bet even with the Chiefs potentially in an unfavorable situation. It’s worth locking in a bet at -6 even before knowing the final injury report because the Chiefs should cover either way and this line is likely to rise before gametime.

Update: Watt is expected to be out for the Cardinals, which is their most important absence, but this line is still at 6 in some places, so I want to lock in a bigger bet.

Kansas City Chiefs 38 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: High

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

The Patriots are my top pick this week, for a number of reasons. For one, they are underdogs of 3.5 points, which is the line that covers most often, about 53.2% of the time historically. That’s not a coincidence. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is, which seems to be the case here, with the majority of the public money coming in on the favored Dolphins.

It’s understandable why the public likes the Dolphins, as the Dolphins beat the Patriots twice last season and got better this off-season, while the Patriots got worse, but that’s based on some misconceptions. While the Dolphins did win both head-to-head matchups last season, the Patriots were actually the better team overall, finishing a game ahead of the Dolphins in the standings. Historically, teams fare pretty well in a rematch with a divisional opponent who had a worse overall record the previous season but who won both head-to-head matchups, winning the third matchup more often than not (51.5%) and covering at a 54.3% rate. 

It’s true the Dolphins got better this off-season while the Patriots got worse, but, despite the result of their two head-to-head matchups last season, the Dolphins are trying to close a gap between these two teams this off-season, rather than trying to pull ahead further. That gap is also bigger than their records suggest, with the Patriots ranking 3rd in overall efficiency last season, while the Dolphins ranked 25th, despite facing an easier schedule.

There has been a lot of concern around the Patriots’ offense this off-season, with the departure of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, but I think that concern is overblown, putting too much stock into practice reports and the pre-season, and the Patriots have the talent on offense to be better than a year ago, with Mac Jones in his second season and a better receiving corps, even after ranking an impressive 7th in offensive efficiency a year ago. The Patriots are likely to be worse on defense without top cornerback JC Jackson, who signed with the Chargers this off-season, but they’re starting from a pretty high base point, ranking 5th in defensive efficiency a year ago.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, should be better on offense, with Tua Tagovailoa going into his third season, with Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson being added to his receiving corps, Chase Edmonds being added to his backfield, and Terron Armstead and Connor Williams being added to his offensive line, but they’re starting from a pretty low base point, ranking 26th in offensive efficiency last season and if Tagovailoa doesn’t take a big step forward, the Dolphins are likely to be a middling offense at best. 

The Dolphins had a solid defense last season, ranking 11th in defensive efficiency, and they return all of their key players from a year ago, but they could still be worse, losing defensive minded head coach Brian Flores and likely to have more injuries than a year ago, when they had the fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense. The injury bug has already damaged this group in a significant way this season, knocking starting cornerback Byron Jones out for the start of the season, a big absence in this game.

Flores is also a former Patriots assistant which may have given the Dolphins the edge in their matchups with the Patriots last season, despite being overall a significantly worse team. The Dolphins are now coached by former 49ers assistant Mike McDaniel, who is coaching his first career game against Bill Belichick and doing so with a young (age 24) quarterback, two situations in which Belichick’s defenses have thrived throughout his tenure in New England. The Patriots have a good chance to pull this straight up upset, even on the road, and, if they lose, this should still be a close game, so I love getting the full 3.5. This is my Pick of the Week.

New England Patriots 23 Miami Dolphins 21 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: New England +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

The Steelers have made the post-season in back-to-back years with records of 12-4 and 9-7-1 respectively, but, in order to do that, they’ve needed to go 7-2 and 8-2-1 in one score games in the two seasons respectively, which is highly unlikely to continue into 2022. The Steelers’ defense will probably be better than the 20th ranked unit they were in terms of efficiency last season, but they’re unlikely to be as good as their 3rd ranked finish in efficiency in 2020, while their offense figures to continue to struggle like they have the past two seasons, when they have ranked 28th and 30th in offensive efficiency. 

The Bengals, meanwhile, ranked just 17th in overall efficiency in the regular season last year and needed to win the turnover battle to win three close post-season games, which is not sustainable long-term, but they are significantly improved on the offensive line this off-season, which was a huge weakness for them last season, holding back what should have been an elite offensive unit, given their skill position talent and their quarterback play. Despite their offensive line improvements and the Steelers offensive struggles, the Bengals are just 6.5-point home favorites over the Steelers.

Including playoffs, 10 of the Steelers’ 13 losses over the past two seasons would have covered this 6.5-point spread and the Bengals are the caliber of team that should be able to give them another 7+ point loss, as they did in 14-point and 31-point victories last season. My calculated line actually has the Bengals favored in this one by 12.5 points, so we’re getting quite a bit of line value with them as just 6.5-point home favorites. This is one of my favorite plays of the week, as I don’t expect this to be a close game.

Cincinnati Bengals 30 Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: High

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Baltimore is one of my top Super Bowl sleepers, a year after missing the playoffs at 8-9 in an injury riddled 2021 season, following a 24-8 stretch from 2019-2020, but their chances of going all the way are going to depend largely on health, with as many key players coming off significant injuries as any team in the league. The Ravens have time to get healthy and make a run later in the season, but they enter the season in pretty rough shape injury wise and, as a result, I think they are overvalued as 7-point road favorites in New York against the Jets.

Stud left tackle Ronnie Stanley is doubtful after missing most of last season with an ankle injury. Running back Gus Edwards and edge defender Tyus Bowser will miss at least the first few games of the season recovering from a torn ACL and a torn achilles respectively, both of which occurred last season. Rookies David Ojabo (2nd round) and Travis Jones (3rd round) are also out to start the season, while starting cornerback Marcus Peters and their other top running back JK Dobbins are both legitimately questionable, both returning from ACL tears that cost them the entirety of 2021.

Despite all of the Ravens injury problems, I don’t think there is quite enough here for the Jets to be worth betting. My calculated line has them as 5.5-point home underdogs, which isn’t significant enough line value compared to this 7-point line. Part of that is because the Jets have injury problems of their own, with quarterback Zach Wilson being replaced by veteran backup Joe Flacco to start the season, who might not be a downgrade, but who also is a very underwhelming starting option at this point of his career, while rookie 4th round pick Max Mitchell will be forced into a starting role in week 1, with Mekhi Becton out for the season and free agent replacement Duane Brown now hurt as well. The Jets are still my pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I wouldn’t bet on them.

Baltimore Ravens 24 New York Jets 19

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Low