2012 Breakout Players

Denver Broncos Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Eric Decker

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Broncos

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Denver Broncos, that player is wide receiver Eric Decker.

Eric Decker was the Broncos’ leading receiver last year, but with just 44 catches for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns. That’s because the Broncos ranked last in the NFL in passing attempts with 429 and 2nd to last in the NFL in passing yards with 2434 yards. With Peyton Manning coming in, that’s obviously going to change. But which receivers are going to be the biggest beneficiaries of Manning’s presence?

Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are the starters so obviously they’ll be bigger beneficiaries than the non-starters, but which of those two will be the biggest beneficiaries? A lot of people think it will be Demaryius Thomas. Thomas is a freak athlete who ran in the 4.3s at 6-3 230 in 2010, leading to him getting drafted by the Broncos’ in the 1st round that year and he caught 35 passes for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs, in 2011.

However, Decker caught 20 passes for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 4 games of the season in 2011 with Kyle Orton. He obviously didn’t have the same kind of chemistry with Tim Tebow that Demaryius Thomas did, but Decker has proven that he can have chemistry with traditional drop back quarterbacks, something Thomas hasn’t. He’s also showing much better chemistry with Peyton Manning in Training Camp, which makes sense.

Manning actually asked the Colts to draft Decker in the 3rd round in 2010, but the Broncos got to him a few picks before the Colts could. He’s not the physical freak that Thomas is, but Manning has always preferred sure handed possession receivers with good route running ability over pure athletes and that certainly won’t change now that he’s older and has decreased arm strength. Peter King even suggested that, if he stays healthy all year, Decker could be among the league leaders in receptions, after witnessing the two in Broncos’ Training Camp.

Neither of these receivers are that proven overall, with Decker having 50 catches for 718 yards and 9 touchdowns in his career and Thomas having 54 catches for 834 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, if I’m going to pick one to have a breakout year, I’m going to pick that one that has at least some proven success with a drop back quarterback and the one that fits to a tee everything that Manning looks for in a receiver, so much so that Manning actually wanted his old team to draft him 2 years ago. If Austin Collie, a similar receiver, can catch 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in 9 games in 2010 with Manning, Decker can have at least a 1000 yard season in 2012, assuming he stays healthy, and maybe challenge for the Pro Bowl.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote).http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Brice McCain

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Texans

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Houston Texans, that player is cornerback Brice McCain.

The Texans lost a big and underrated part of their defense this offseason, losing #2 cornerback Jason Allen. Allen replaced Kareem Jackson, a 2010 1st round pick, in the starting lineup midseason in 2011 and played very well, allowing 39 completions on 77 attempts (50.6%) for 457 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties.

Jackson sucked as a rookie as a starter in 2010, allowing 57 completions on 86 attempts (66.3%) for 924 yards (10.7 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 4 penalties. He wasn’t much better in 2011, in a reduced role, allowing 38 completions on 62 attempts (61.3%) for 646 yards (10.4 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 5 penalties.

With Allen gone, Jackson will be forced back into the starting lineup. Unless he turns things around, he’ll really struggle. Fortunately, the Texans may have the answer waiting in the wings, Brice McCain, a 2009 6th round pick. McCain had a very strong season in a limited role last year. He was 8th at his position in terms of his rating in coverage on ProFootballFocus, despite playing just 482 snaps, and 2nd at his position in QB rating allowed, among eligible cornerbacks (25% of team’s snaps). He allowed 24 completions on 51 attempts (47.1%) for 251 yards (4.9 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 deflections, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 3 penalties.

He’ll start the season as the nickel cornerback, but so did Jason Allen last season. Jackson will be on a short leash and, if he continues to struggle and McCain continues to play well, McCain could steal his job midseason and, if he does that, he might not look back. It’s certainly a projection to say that he will be an elite cornerback, but he’s got the potential to be an above average starting cornerback and solidify the cornerback position in Houston opposite Johnathan Joseph.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Justin Houston

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Chiefs

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Kansas City Chiefs, that player is outside linebacker Justin Houston.

The Chiefs have one of the best pass rushers in the league, Tamba Hali, but he’s the only good pass rusher they’ve had for the past few years. Hali turned in another strong season in 2011, ranking 4th on ProFootballFocus among rush linebackers and producing 12 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures on 459 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 13.7%. However, the Chiefs only had 29 sacks.

In 2010, he had 19 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 68 quarterback pressures on 583 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.9%. The Chiefs did manage 46 sacks, including playoffs, but nickel rusher Wallace Gilberry with 7 was the only other player on the team with more than 3. In 2009, he had 9 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 449 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 12.9%, but only Gilberry with 6 had more than 2 and the Chiefs managed 26 as a team. They haven’t had another good pass rusher in years in the starting lineup.

That could change this year. The Chiefs used a 3rd round pick on Justin Houston in the 2011 NFL Draft and he could prove to be a steal. Houston has 1st round talent and was frequently projected there before news of his failed Combine drug test surfaced. Houston appears to have put that behind him. He worked his way into the starting lineup last season and had 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 207 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.6%.

He played every snap except one from week 11 on and had most of his production in those 7 games, with 6 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures on 151 pass rush snaps, a rate of 12.6%. It’s no coincidence that the Chiefs had 20 of their 29 sacks in those 7 games. As a full time starter in 2012, he could definitely have double digit sacks and his presence in the lineup as a 2nd pass rush threat will make this a much better pass rush.

He’s also great against the run, ranking 5th at his position on ProFootballFocus against the run. He had 45 solo tackles, 32 stops, 2 assists, and 2 missed tackles. In his final 7 games, he had 24 solo tackles, 21 stops, 1 assist, and 1 missed tackle on 227 run stopping snaps. He’s a legitimate every down linebacker who can do something very well on each type of down.

The one issue with Houston is that the Chiefs love dropping the opposite rush linebacker into coverage. When Mike Vrabel was the starter, that made sense because he could cover as well as he could pass rush, but Justin Houston is terrible in coverage and a great pass rusher. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 3-4 outside linebacker in coverage as he surrendered 18 completions on 23 attempts (78.3%) and allowed 274 yards (11.9 YPA).

They have to find some way that he doesn’t have to drop into coverage as much as he did last year, when he dropped on 163 snaps, as opposed to 207 pass rushes. I trust the Chiefs to do that though and that will go a long way towards him getting double digit sacks and breaking out as one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Torrey Smith

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Ravens

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Baltimore Ravens, that player is wide receiver Torrey Smith.

Torrey Smith was excellent as a rookie, catching 50 balls for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns and he was even better in his last 7 games, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns. Keep in mind he played all of last season with a double sports hernia.

This is incredibly impressive for a rookie. Discounting Julio Jones and AJ Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007. And Smith did all that as a 2nd round rookie, dealing with a sports hernia all year, coming off a lockout, and functioning as his team’s secondary receiver (90 targets to Anquan Boldin’s 102).

Now that he’s a year older and Anquan Boldin is a year older on the wrong side of 30, Smith should continue to improve as a receiver and establish himself as Baltimore’s clear #1 receiver. We could even see a Mike Wallace/Hines Ward type situation here. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns. Smith should have his first 1000 yard season and with upside to make his 1st Pro Bowl.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Atlanta Falcons Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Julio Jones

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Falcons

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Atlanta Falcons, that player is wide receiver Julio Jones.

I didn’t want to do Julio Jones for the Falcons because everyone is projecting a breakout year for him, but I’ve been on the Julio Jones hype train all offseason, so he’s the pick here. Just know that I thought he’d be great before everyone else did, even if it makes me a football hipster for saying that (which probably means I’ll have to hate myself because I hate hipsters).

As a rookie in a lockout shortened season, Jones still managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games, despite battling hamstring problems all year. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those numbers alone would be enough to count as a breakout season for him, but I’m not done.

I don’t think people understand just how impressive what Jones did as a rookie last year in 13 games was. Discounting Jones and AJ Green (another insanely talented receiver and another outlier), since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007.

And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. Rookie receivers aren’t supposed to be able to do what Jones did last season, especially not in just 13 games as his team’s secondary target (two reasons why I think his rookie year was more impressive than Green, who only had 11 more catches, 88 more yards, and actually 2 fewer touchdowns, despite 20 more targets).

He’s coming off his first full offseason, fully healthy, which he wasn’t last season, his team will be passing more overall this season, and he’ll become the focal point of the offense with Roddy White aging opposite him and a new downfield offense being implemented. Last year, he managed just 7.0 targets per game, as opposed to 10.9 for Roddy White. If that number jumps to 8.5 for him this season, and he plays 16 games and maintains last year’s rates, he’d have 80 catches for 1433 yards and 12 touchdowns and that’s just 1.5 more targets per game, completely reasonable.

Including playoffs, he was targeted 8.5 times per game over his last 6 games last season and he caught 31 passes for 525 yards and 6 touchdowns, while extrapolates to 83 catches for 1400 yards and 16 touchdowns over 16 games. Now you can argue that he probably won’t maintain his same rates, especially not his 17.8 YPC rate, and that he might not play 16 games.

However, Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are totally reasonable for him. This guy caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in a QUARTER in his 1st preseason game. He’s an incredibly talented receiver and when the season is over, he won’t have just made his 1st Pro Bowl, he’ll get his name mentioned with Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald as the top-3 receivers in the league, pushing out an aging Andre Johnson (only slightly). What the Falcons gave up to trade up for him in the 2011 NFL Draft was not too much to pay for this kid.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Minnesota Vikings Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Erin Henderson

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Vikings

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Minnesota Vikings, that player is outside linebacker Erin Henderson.

Erin Henderson was only a two down run stuffing linebacker last year and came off the field in sub packages when they used only two linebackers, meaning he was not asked to cover much. Henderson, however, did an amazing job against the run. Despite limited playing time, he ranked 4th at his position with a 21.8 rating on ProFootballFocus, including 3rd against the run.

Playing only 590 snaps last season, he ranked 15th at his position with 58 solo tackles and 13th with 38 stops (solo tackles that constitute an offensive failure) and he only missed 5 tackles. Playing 267 run snaps, he led his position with a run stop rate of 11.6% (31 stops on 267 run snaps, his other 7 stops were on coverage snaps) and he ranked 4th at his position in tackling efficiency (missed tackles per attempted tackle) with 5 missed tackles on 74 attempted tackles (58 solo, 11 assists, 5 missed).

He’ll be counted on in more of a 3 down role this year with his brother EJ Henderson gone. His EJ played 895 total snaps last year, 369 of which were run defense snaps and 464 of which were coverage snaps. If Erin does that this season, and maintains his 2011 rate, he’d have 59 solo tackles, 43 stops, 12 assists, and 4 missed tackles on run snaps and 24 solo tackles, 11 stops, and 3 assists and 3 missed tackles on coverage snaps, giving him 83 solo tackles, 54 stops, 15 assists, and 7 missed tackles overall. If he had done that last year, he would have ranked 8th, tied for 4th, and tied for 8th solo tackles, stops, and assists respectively at his position.

Coverage is the one question for him though. He wasn’t bad in coverage last year, grading out at above average in coverage last season; he just doesn’t have a lot of experience in it, as he spent his only year as a starter as just a two-down run stuffer. However, for what experience he did have in coverage last year, he actually graded out 5th at his position on ProFootballFocus in coverage. He allowed 22 completions on 29 attempts (75.9%), but only for 167 yards (5.8 YPA) and he ranked 6th allowing just 0.71 yards per coverage snap. If he can adjust to playing an every down workload, he should be one of the best all around linebackers in the game in 2012 and, if recognized, he should push for the Pro-Bowl.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Jacksonville Jaguars Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Derek Cox

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Jaguars

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Jacksonville Jaguars, that player is cornerback Derek Cox.

Derek Cox is the X-factor in the Jaguars’ secondary. He’ll be the #1 cornerback. Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010. As a rookie in 2009, he was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated cornerback and in 2010, he wasn’t much better, ranking 95th out of 100 eligible cornerbacks. He was a big part of what was one of the worst secondaries in the league, as the Jaguars allowed 7.6 YPA, 27th in the league, in 2009, and 8.3 YPA, worst in the league, in 2010.

However, 1st and 2nd year struggles aren’t totally damning for NFL players, especially ones coming from same school backgrounds, like Cox, who went to Williams & Mary. He was awesome to start the season last year, playing essentially 5 ½ games. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Sean Lissemore

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cowboys

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Dallas Cowboys, that player is defensive end Sean Lissemore.

At defensive end, the Cowboys used a rotation of 4 different players at 2 spots in 2012. Those 4 players were Jason Hatcher, Kenyon Coleman, Marcus Spears, and Sean Lissemore. With the exception of Lissemore, none of those guys were very good and none played more than 428 snaps. The Cowboys drafted Tyrone Coleman in the 3rd round so he should see snaps at the position this year, but they’ve said they’ll be giving Lissemore a bigger role this year, possibly even making him a starter. The veteran Coleman (33) likely will be cut.

Lissemore, as I’ve already mentioned, was their best player at the position last year in his 2nd season after going in the 7th round in 2010 out of school small William & Mary. He had a 13.8 rating on just 283 snaps on ProFootballFocus. He wasn’t much of a pass rusher, but he had 18 solo tackles, 8 assists and 16 stops on just 119 run defense snaps, while missing only 2 tackles. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd rated 3-4 defensive end against the run, behind Ray McDonald and Glenn Dorsey. He played all over the line, both end spots and nose tackle, and will have a bigger role this season. We’ll see if the added playing time will help or hurt him, but he’s a potential breakout star.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Isaac Redman

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Steelers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, that player is running back Isaac Redman.

The Steelers have lost Rashard Mendenhall to a torn ACL, but they may have an even better running back waiting in the wings in Isaac Redman. Mendenhall is an overrated player so his torn ACL may be a blessing in disguise for them. Mendenhall has a career 4.1 YPC, while Redman has an average of 4.5 YPC.

With Mendenhall out last year for most of week 17 and all of their playoff loss to the Broncos, Redman had 92 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and 121 yards on 17 carries. Those 121 yards would have been the 2nd most yards Mendenhall had all season and the 7.1 YPC he averaged in that game would have been Mendenhall’s highest total since week 3 of the 2010 season. On top of that, the 213 combined yards rushing he had in those 2 games would have been the most productive back-to-back two game stretch since weeks 3-4 of 2010 for Mendenhall.

Redman is also the more well rounded back. Despite less playing time, he matched the 18 catches that Mendenhall had in 2011. He also was more trusted by the coaching staff to pass protect, despite his backup status, with 94 pass protection snaps to 42 for Mendenhall. As you can expect, ProFootballFocus did grade him as the superior pass protector.

They also graded him as the superior runner and player overall (playoffs included), despite his backup status and the fact that he played fewer snaps. This makes sense as Redman averaged 3.3 yards after contact as opposed to 2.5 for Mendenhall, averaged 4.7 YPC to 4.1 YPC, and broke 25 tackles on 127 carries (19.7%) as opposed to 30 broken tackles on 228 carries (13.2%) for Mendenhall.

The Steelers were already starting to take notice of Redman’s talent last year, giving him 91 carries to Mendenhall’s 220 even before week 17. Redman also played 318 snaps to Mendenhall’s 457, as he played more as a blocker and receiver out of the backfield (which goes back to my point that Redman is more well rounded).

Mendenhall is expected to miss at least the first 6 games of the season as he’s expected to start the season on the PUP, but Redman is the more talented back and might not give Mendenhall, a free agent after the season, his starting job back even when Mendenhall returns from injury. There’s serious fantasy upside with Redman and major upside for the Steelers’ running game with a more talented back behind a better offensive line.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Stevan Ridley

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Patriots

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New England Patriots, that player is running back Stevan Ridley.

Not since Corey Dillon was in his prime, 2004, have the Patriots had an explosive lead back. In 2004, Dillon rushed for 1635 yards and 12 touchdowns on 345 carries. However, after that they had a washed up Dillon, who rushed for just 1545 yards over the next 2 seasons on 408 carries. He did have 25 touchdowns over those two seasons, but mostly just because he was around the goal line so much.

After that, 2006 1st round pick Laurence Maroney ranged from everything from serviceable to god awful in 2 seasons as a starter, 2007 and 2009. Maroney was out of the league after 5 seasons, 4 in New England, and one in Denver, where he averaged 2.1 yards per carry. He rushed for just 2504 yards and 21 touchdowns on 618 carries in his career and was oft injured. He missed most of the 2008 season, forcing a 31 year old Sammy Morris to carry the load, as he rushed for 727 yards and 7 touchdowns on 156 carries.

In 2010 and 2011, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the lead back. He was the perfect running back for the Patriots because he never fumbled and could run through holes. With how good the passing game and offensive line are, all the Patriots needed him to do was not fumble (0 fumbles in 557 career carries) and run through holes opened up by the offensive line against spread out fronts who are fearing the pass. However, he was not explosive at all and didn’t do anything after contact. In his career, including playoffs, BJGE had 1305 yards after contact on 557 carries, just 2.3 yards per carry after contact.

It’s not entirely coincidental that the last time the Patriots won the Super Bowl was 2004, the last time they had an explosive lead back. Enter Stevan Ridley, a 2011 3rd round pick. Ridley averaged 5.1 yards per carry including playoffs last season, with 3.1 yards after contact, rushing for 462 yards on 91 carries total. He was good enough in limited action for the Patriots to let BJGE go and make him the lead back and he’s been impressing in Training Camp.

He doesn’t pass catch well, as he had just 17 catches in his collegiate career and 5 last year. For this reason, he won’t see a lot of obvious passing downs as Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead will handle those duties. He did fumble last season, something BJGE has never done, fumbling twice and losing one, but he only fumbled 3 times in college so he’s pretty sure handed when it comes to protecting the football.

If he can avoid fumbles this season, he should be able to get the majority of BJGE’s vacated workload (410 carries over the last 2 seasons). The Patriots’ passing game and offensive line are both good enough to make any back look serviceable. If Ridley lives up to his potential, imagine how good he can be in the Patriots’ offense.

By the way, if you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]