1. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

Jimmy Graham caught 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. He probably will have less this season as Brees can’t possibly be as good as last year, and also because of the situation at Head Coach. However, I still like him over Rob Gronkowski because his team didn’t add a ton of receiving options through free agency.

Projection: 88 catches 1180 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (184 pts standard/272 pts PPR)

2. Rob Gronkowski (New England)

Gronkowski should also lose some production to Brandon Lloyd and I like Jimmy Graham more than him in fantasy, but he’ll still have a fantastic season. He caught 90 passes for 1327 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. That’s insane.

Projection: 75 catches 1100 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (176 pts standard/251 pts PPR)

3. Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/20/12: Brown is probably done for the year. I’ve gone into detail on Floyd’s and Meachem’s short comings. Eddie Royal, the slot receiver, is also injury prone and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008. Gates was their #1 receiver in 2010, the last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson, catching 50 passes for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games before getting hurt, on pace for a ridiculous 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s having a great offseason and is finally healthy and while he’s 32 and might miss a couple games with injuries, he’ll probably be the Chargers’ leading per game receiver when healthy.

I struggle with Antonio Gates. On one hand, he’s had 114 catches for 1560 yards and 17 touchdowns in 23 games over the past 2 years despite never being fully healthy and he’s now healthier than he’s been in the last 2 years. That’s 79 catches for 1085 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. He also caught 50 balls for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in a mere 10 games in 2010 with Vincent Jackson holding out and Rivers could look to him early and often, especially in the red zone, with Jackson gone.

On the other hand, he’s 32 in June and his days of playing all 16 games are behind him. Basically, what you’re getting with Antonio Gates is elite tight end production for around 14 games. Is that worth a 3^rd or 4^th round pick? In a deep tight end year where you can find a marginal replacement for him on waivers for any games he misses, I say yes.

Projection: 67 catches 1040 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/231 pts PPR)

4. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

Is this the year Jermichael Finley finally puts it all together? He’s definitely flashed at times, including 21 catches for 301 yards and a score in 4 games in 2010, and a strong end to the 2009 season. However, he’s very inconsistent. All that being said, if he just cuts his drops in half (12 to 6) he’ll have a major improvement on 2011, when he caught 55 passes for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns (not too shabby). There’s definitely plenty of upside here.

Projection: 63 catches 880 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (136 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

5. Vernon Davis (San Francisco)

In Davis’ last 5 games, including playoffs, he had 28 catches for 536 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s insane. Remember, he had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 and 56 catches for 914 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010, before totaling just 67 catches for 792 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. He’s still San Francisco’s #1 receiver. Buy low while you still can.

Projection: 74 catches 920 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (134 pts standard/208 pts PPR)

6. Aaron Hernandez (New England)

8/7/12: My previous projections for Hernandez, who is reportedly dominating in Training Camp, were too low. He’ll take a statistical hit with Lloyd coming in too, but not a huge one. Remember, he’s never played a full 16 game season either, playing 14 a piece in his first 2 seasons, so if he does that, he could have a career high in yardage. He’s also being used as a fullback and could get you yardage on the ground. He had 45 yards on 5 carries last year in the regular season and then rushed for 61 yards on 5 carries in the playoffs against the Broncos. He could surpass 100 yards rushing.

This might seem a little low for Hernandez. However, the Patriots added a ton of wide receivers this offseason. They ran more two-tight end sets in passing situations than any team in the league last year. With guys like Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney coming in, that number should go down. Whereas Gronkowski’s production will be hurt because he’ll have more competition for balls, Hernandez figures to actually see the field less.

Projection: 65 catches 800 receiving yards 7 total touchdowns 100 rushing yards (132 pts standard/197 pts PPR)

7. Fred Davis (Washington)

Davis is very underrated. He had 59 catches for 796 yards and 3 touchdowns in 12 games last year, good for 79 catches for 1061 yards and 4 touchdowns over 16 games. He also has an upgrade at quarterback, though he does have much better receiving talent around him. Still, he’s an underrated tight end who should score more this year on a better offense. The biggest concern is he’s a failed drug test away from a season long suspension, but I wouldn’t worry too much.

Projection: 72 catches 950 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (125 pts standard/197 pts PPR)

8. Jason Witten (Dallas)

8/31/12: Jason Witten will reportedly be a game time decision for week 1 as he tries to come back from a lacerated spleen suffered a couple of weeks ago. This is much better news than his original prognosis, which was doubtful for week 1. At the very least, this news should mean that he’ll be in the starting lineup week 2.

An incredibly consistent producer, Witten has between 64 catches for 754 yards and 96 catches for 1145 yards in every season since 2004 and is averaging 5.16 catches for 59.07 yards and 0.31 touchdowns per game in that time period. Over 15 games, that’s 77 catches for 886 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s not a bad year at all. You can safely draft him as your TE1 in fantasy. Even if he misses one game, tight end is a deep enough position that you can pick someone up off waivers for just one game and get decent production.

8/20/12: Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Unfortunately, the timetable for his return is very murky with this type of injury. He’ll have to remain idle for about a week and hope it heals and that he’ll avoid surgery. Reports says that’s the most likely scenario, but even if that scenario, he’d be questionable for week 1. Witten is incredibly tough and hasn’t missed a game since 2003, but I’m still cutting his original projected numbers to estimate that he plays 14 games instead of 16.

Jason Witten is as consistent as they come. He hasn’t missed a game since 2003 and he’s had between 79 and 96 catches and 942 yards and 1145 yards in each of the last 5 years. Believe it or not, he’s still only 30.

Projection: 77 catches 900 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (120 pts standard/197 pts PPR)

9. Greg Olsen (Chicago)

8/27/12: The Panthers coaching staff talked up Greg Olsen. Jeremy Shockey is gone and Cam Newton loves throwing to his tight ends. He targeted Olsen and Shockey a combined 152 times last season and could target them even more this season with Steve Smith aging on the outside. Mike Tolbert and Gary Barnridge will take some of those targets, but Olsen could see up to 100 targets this year and have a very solid year. He could also be Newton’s primary target around the goal line as Olsen and Shockey combined for 9 touchdowns last year. Newton also figures to throw more around the goal line this year because his 14 rushing touchdowns is going to be unrepeatable.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Projection: 55 catches 700 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/167 pts PPR)

10. Jared Cook (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

Jared Cook quietly emerged as one of the better tight ends in the league last year with 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns and if his last 3 games were any indication (21 catches for 335 yards and 1 touchdown), he could be even better this year, especially if the Titans upgrade their quarterback situation from Hasselbeck to Locker.

Projection: 54 catches 820 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/166 pts PPR)

11. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Pettigrew was actually the Lions’ 2^nd most targeted receiver last year and he turned that into 83 catches for 777 yards and 5 touchdowns. He could see a slight dip in production this year with the emergence of Titus Young and the addition of Ryan Broyles, but he’s still a solid TE1.

Projection: 72 catches 730 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/175 pts PPR)

12. Dustin Keller (NY Jets)

8/21/12: Dustin Keller had a breakout season last year, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, leading a miserable receiving corps. I thought his production would go down this season because the receiving corps around him would be improved, but it doesn’t look like it. Keller should once again lead this miserable bunch in receiving. If you miss out on one of the top tight ends, Keller is a nice fall back option in the mid rounds.

Keller had a career high 65 catches for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns last year, but with Holmes bouncing back and Stephen Hill coming in, I expect those numbers to dip, especially if Tebow, who rarely threw to tight ends, takes over as the starter at some point.

Projection: 60 catches 760 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (106 pts standard/166 pts PPR)

13. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez inexplicably had an amazing season at the age of 35 last season with 80 catches for 875 yards and 7 touchdowns despite looking done the year before. However, there’s only downside with him now. He’s 36 and less than 2 years removed from 70 catches for 656 yards and 6 touchdowns. I’d stay away.

Projection: 65 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/168 pts PPR)

14. Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

8/20/12: Fleener hasn’t quite been as big of a part of the offense in the Preseason as anticipated. Wide receiver Austin Collie has been Luck’s favorite target.

I like Fleener to have an immediate impact. Andrew Luck loves throwing to his tight ends and the Colts should use plenty of two-tight ends sets to get Dwayne Allen and Fleener involved, though Fleener is the better receiver and more useful player for fantasy purposes. Luck has familiarity with Fleener and should target him early and often, particularly in the red zone. As I’ve said before, this Colts receiving corps still leaves a lot to be desired and Fleener might finish the season 2^nd on the team in receiving. There’s some potential for him to have a Rob Gronkowski esque rookie season.

Projection: 42 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/145 pts PPR)

15. TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh)

8/7/12: Heath Miller is going to be a bigger part of Todd Haley’s offense, especially if Mike Wallace misses time. He’s a nice high end TE2.

Miller is a solid, but unspectacular tight end, but he should surpass the mere 2 touchdowns he had last year for reasons I listed under Antonio Brown’s write up. Still, it’s hard to recommend Miller as a TE1.

Projection: 57 catches 700 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard/157 pts PPR)

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1. Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

7/26/12 No news to report here, but my projections were a little high for Calvin Johnson. It’s unlikely that anyone, even Johnson, can repeat what Johnson did last year, especially since his team is unlikely to pass 666 times again, has other weapons, and his quarterback has only once made it through a 16 game slate. Johnson has also had his own injury history, only playing all 16 games once before last year. He’s still my #1 receiver, but don’t buy TOO high with him expecting him to catch 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns again.

Calvin Johnson was insane last season in his first full season with an actual quarterback, catching 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. He might not quite match those numbers this season, but with Stafford throwing him the ball, he remains the #1 fantasy receiver by a good margin, barring the curse of John Madden striking him down.

Projection: 87 catches 1450 receiving yards 13 receiving touchdowns (223 pts standard/310 pts PPR)

2. Julio Jones (Atlanta)

8/13/12: I don’t like to overreact to preseason games, but Julio Jones is insane. He caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in his 1st preseason game in only one quarter of play. I had him “conservatively” ranked as my #5 wide receiver, but it appears that was even too low for him. Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are not out of reach for him.

As a rookie in a lockout shortened season, Jones still managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games, despite battling hamstring problems all year. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his last 5 games, when he finally looked healthy, he had 24 catches for 461 yards and 6 touchdowns. With a full offseason, Jones looks poised for a breakout season now that’s healthy.

Projection: 76 catches 1280 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (200 pts standard/276 pts PPR)

3. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

Larry Fitzgerald had 80 catches for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns last year with terrible quarterback play. I can’t guarantee his quarterback play will be any better, but Michael Floyd drawing away the bracket coverage opposite him will help him.

Projection: 83 catches 1440 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (198 pts standard/281 pts PPR)

4. Greg Jennings (Green Bay)

Greg Jennings managed 67 catches for 949 yards and 9 touchdowns last year in 13 games, good for 82 catches for 1168 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he stays healthy for 16 games this year, something he had done in the 3 previous years, he should not only match those numbers, but surpass them. His 14.2 YPC last year was way lower than average and if he does catch a career high 82 balls this year, definitely a possibility the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, he should have a career high in yards as well.

Projection: 82 catches 1310 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (197 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

5. Percy Harvin (Minnesota)

Percy Harvin could have a career best season in 2012 with improved quarterback play, a better offensive line to protect the quarterback, and still very little competition for targets from other receivers. He’s a really underrated right now. He rushed for 345 yards and 2 scores last year, which helped make him the #8 fantasy receiver. He could easily improve on that this season, but he goes in the 4th or 5th round (19th receiver) on average because people ignore his rushing ability.

Projection: 100 catches 1170 receiving yards 45 carries 250 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns (196 pts standard/296 pts PPR)

6. Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

8/28/12: Brown also gets a stock up with Wallace coming back. The Steelers will probably use Wallace primarily as a deep decoy for the first 4-8 games of the season until he gets the playbook mastered, which sets up a perfect situation for Brown, who has been there all offseason and was the team’s leading receiver, by far, in the 2^nd half of the season. Wallace had about 1200 yards last year and Brown had about 1100. Expect Brown to be closer to 1300 and Wallace to be closer to 1000 this year.

7/27/12: If Wallace is traded or holds out into the season, Brown immediately becomes the #1 receiver. Even Wallace isn’t traded, Brown could still be the #1 receiver because he’ll have better mastery of Todd Haley’s new offense and because he won’t run the risk of getting out of shape. He’s heading into his 3^rd year, normally a big breakout year for receivers. He should have career highs across the board.

7/26/12: With Mike Wallace trending down, Antonio Brown is trending up. Brown will be the #1 receiver in Wallace’s absence at Training Camp and that could lead to him become a more relied on receiver by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, especially since he figures to have better mastery of their new offensive system.

Antonio Brown had his breakout year last year, giving Pittsburgh two 1000 yard receivers. They could very well have two 1000 yard receivers again this year. Brown will be more valuable in fantasy leagues this year than last because I think his mere 2 touchdowns from last year were a fluke. The combo of Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Jerricho Cotchery/Mewelde Moore/David Johnson/Weslye Saunders vultured 9 touchdowns last year. That won’t happen this year.

Projection: 78 catches 1270 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (175 pts standard/253 pts PPR)

7. Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

In 13 games with Greg Jennings healthy last year, Nelson had 51 catches for 957 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 63 catches for 1178 yards and 12 touchdowns, but that’s assuming you think he can keep up 18.6 YPC. For someone with a career 15.1 YPC even with last year factored in, that seems a little crazy.

The stats didn’t show it last year, but Jennings is Rodgers’ favorite target, not Nelson. In the 13 games they played together, Jennings was targeted 96 times, Nelson 58 times. Their receiving stats should reflect that this season barring injuries. That being said, Nelson is still talented enough to go over 1000 yards with Rodgers throwing him the ball.

Projection: 63 catches 1030 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (175 pts standard/238 pts PPR)

8. Marques Colston (New Orleans)      

He gets a rep for being injury prone, but he’s only had less than 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns once in his 6 year career so there’s minimal downside for him. He remains the top wide receiver on one of the best passing offenses in the league. In 14 games last year, he had 80 catches for 1143 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games. He’s only played 16 games twice, but there’s potential for improvement on last year’s numbers.

Projection: 83 catches 1190 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (173 pts standard/256 pts PPR)

9. Dez Bryant (Dallas)

8/20/12: Austin is battling hamstring problems still and Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Bryant, who is having a strong offseason on the field, could be due for a huge season in his 3^rd year in the league, typically a breakout year for receivers. He’s the clear #1 option in one of the best passing attacks in the league.

Dez Bryant caught 63 balls for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games last year. He’s now in his 3^rd year, a frequent breakout year for receivers, and should have his best year yet, especially if he plays 16 games for the first time in his career.

Projection: 72 catches 1100 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (170 pts standard/242 pts PPR)

10. Andre Johnson (Houston)

I’m torn on Andre Johnson. On one hand, he had 86 catches for 1216 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2010 in just 13 games after back-to-back 100 catch 1500 yard seasons in 2008 and 2009. He didn’t do much last year thanks to injuries, but he should be fully healthy this year. On the other hand, he’s turns 31 in July and the Texans don’t pass as much as they used to and he’s had a history of injury problems. We should see slightly less than peak production for Johnson this year and there’s some downside.

Projection: 80 catches 1200 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (168 pts standard/248 pts PPR)

11. Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

8/7/12: I moved Nicks down a little bit when he got hurt, but he’s practicing already and looks fine. He won’t miss any time, so I moved him back up.

5/27/12: Nicks could be in a race to play week 1 with a broken foot. I won’t knock him down too much, but it’s worth noting.

I’ll take Hakeem Nicks over Victor Cruz. Nicks has a proven history of success as he has 79 catches for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1192 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He’s also bigger so he should have more touchdowns than Cruz, who had more touchdowns between the two last season. Hicks was also significantly better in the playoffs, 28/444/4, than Cruz, 21/269/1.

Projection: 80 catches 1070 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (167 pts standard/247 pts PPR)

12. Eric Decker (Denver)

8/7/12: Eric Decker and Peyton Manning reportedly have great chemistry in Denver, much better than him and Demaryius Thomas. This makes a lot of sense because Peyton Manning loves crisp route runners with reliable hands, rather than pure athletic freaks like Thomas. With Peyton Manning likely to show diminished arm strength this season at age 36 after 4 neck surgeries and a year out of football, Decker should lead the team in receiving and Peter King’s prediction that Decker will rank among the league leaders in receiving doesn’t sound too crazy.

Everyone assumes Demaryius Thomas will lead the Broncos in receiving, but why? Just because he had 25 catches for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 5 games last year? Well Eric Decker had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 4 games last year and that was with Brandon Lloyd opposite him.

Just because Thomas had great chemistry with Tim Tebow doesn’t mean he will have great chemistry with Peyton Manning. Thomas is still a very unproven player and Decker has shown better chemistry with more traditional pocket passers. It’s also worth noting that Peyton Manning specifically requested the Colts draft Eric Decker in the 3^rd round in 2010, but the Broncos got him first. We know he thinks highly of him.

Manning has made lemonade out of apples before with his receivers. If Austin Collie can catch 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in 9 games on a more crowded receiving corps in 2010 with Manning, Decker can have a 1000 yard season. I think he’ll lead this team in receiving and exceed his draft range.

Projection: 90 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/254 pts PPR)

13. Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

Johnson has 82 catches for 1073 yards and 10 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1004 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He should be able to surpass 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns again and could have a career high season if Ryan Fitzpatrick plays as well as he did last season before the rib injury. The Bills still don’t have very many other talented options besides Johnson unless 3^rd round rookie TJ Graham can make huge strides in his first season as a pro.

Projection: 80 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/244 pts PPR)

14. Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

8/27/12: Torrey Smith exploded for 8 catches for 103 yards in the Ravens’ 3^rd preseason game in not even 3 full quarters worth of action. He might be even more likely to have a Mike Wallace type breakout year than I originally imagined.

Torrey Smith was excellent as a rookie, catching 50 balls for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns and he was even better in his last 7 games, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns. Keep in mind he played all of last season with a double sports hernia. Now that he’s a year older and Anquan Boldin is a year older on the wrong side of 30, Smith should continue to improve as a receiver and establish himself as Baltimore’s clear #1 receiver.

We could even see a Mike Wallace/Hines Ward type situation here. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2^nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns. There’s definitely upside to be had with the speedy Smith in the mid rounds.

Projection: 70 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/234 pts PPR)

15. Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

From 2007-2008 in Denver with Jay Cutler, Marshall had 102 catches for 1325 yards and 7 touchdowns and 104 catches for 1265 yards and 6 touchdowns. From 2010-2011 in Miami with crap at quarterback, Marshall had 86 catches for 1014 yards and 3 touchdowns and 81 catches for 1214 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now that he won’t face league discipline after an alleged off the field incident, he’s a player with good upside and minimal downside.

Projection: 95 catches 1200 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (162 pts standard/257 pts PPR)

16. Brandon Lloyd (New England)

8/7/12: Brandon Lloyd is reportedly dominating in Patriots Training Camp. He’s their best deep threat since Randy Moss gave a shit and he is obviously very comfortable in Josh McDaniels’ system. Remember, this guy led the league in receiving two years ago. He won’t do that because the Patriots just have too many options, but he could easily go for over 1000 yards receiving.

Before McDaniels was fired as Head Coach in Denver in 2010, Lloyd caught 60 passes for 1153 yards and 9 touchdowns in 12 games with Kyle Orton as his quarterback. In 2011, he was traded to St. Louis, where McDaniels was the offensive coordinator. He caught 51 passes for 683 yards and 5 touchdowns in 11 games with an injured Sam Bradford, AJ Feeley, and Kellen Clemens at quarterback. In the last 2 years, he has 111 catches for 1836 yards and 14 touchdowns in 23 games with McDaniels.

Over 16 games, that’s 77 catches for 1277 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Kyle Orton, AJ Feeley, Kellen Clemens, and an injured Sam Bradford throwing him the football. Now he has Tom Brady throwing him the football. However, he’s also got a ton of competition for balls around him. Welker and Gronkowski should both go over 1000 yards again, so I’d be surprised if Lloyd did so as well. 3 1000 yard receivers on one team is unheard of, even for the Patriots. He’ll still have a good season.

Projection: 65 catches 1000 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (154 pts standard/219 pts PPR)

17. Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)

Maclin was on his way to a career high season last year before getting hurt and still managed 63 catches for 859 yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games. Over 16 games, that’s 78 catches for 1057 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now fully healthy (something he wasn’t last year even when he played) on what should be an overall improved Philadelphia offense, he could match or exceed those numbers this season.

Projection: 79 catches 1090 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (149 pts standard/228 pts PPR)

18. Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/31/12: I’ve maintained all along that Britt has the ability to be a top-10 wide receiver with Jake Locker throwing him the football. He has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Now he’s only getting suspended 1 game and should be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by week 2. He might not become a top-10 receiver this year with the uncertainty about the knee and the one game he’ll miss, but he definitely has the upside and he’s worth the risk as a WR2/flex type in the early mid rounds.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: Adam Schefter reports that Britt will likely receive only a short suspension, somewhere between 1-3 games. He’s also made an incredible recovery from 2 knee surgeries and is impressing in work on the side and could be activated from the PUP any day now. I originally projected him to play 12 games, now I’m changing his projections to 14 games. Remember, in his last 14 full games, he’s caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s got incredible upside in the mid rounds still.

7/26/12: There are three numbers that are important for Britt. The first is 12, meaning 12 touchdowns over his last 14 games, to go with 56 catches and 1146 yards, despite generally mediocre quarterbacking (Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Matt Hasselbeck). The 2^nd number is 8, however, meaning 8 arrests in the last 3 years since entering the league. He’ll almost definitely be suspended after his last one, for DUI. He would have been suspended last season, but Roger Goodell agreed not to suspend guys for what they did during the lockout. He won’t be so lucky this time around.

The 3^rd number is 3, meaning 3 knee surgeries in the last 10 months. I’m cutting his originally projected numbers by 25%. He might not miss 4 games, but he could and even if he doesn’t, he’ll be far from 100%. Let him be someone else’s problem, unless you can get him late, in which case he’s a sleeper with nice upside. His current ADP in the 7^th round is far too rich, however.

In the last 2 seasons, Britt has played 13 entire games. In those 14 games, he has 56 catches for 1046 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 64 catches for 1195 yards and 14 touchdowns. And he did that with Kerry Collins, Vince Young and just 2 games of Matt Hasselbeck. There’s serious sleeper value with him in the mid rounds, even all of the receiving options the Titans have. He just needs to stay on the field for 16 games. He had another knee surgery this offseason, but it doesn’t sound serious.

Projection: 60 catches 960 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (144 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

19. Roddy White (Atlanta)

8/13/12: Any positive for Jones has to be a negative for White, who is heading into his age 31 season and will be a smaller part of the offense last year. Leading the league in targets last year, White is almost purely a volume receiver at this point in his career and he should see a much smaller volume of targets go his way as long as Julio is playing like this.

Julio Jones’ gain will be Roddy White’s loss this season. White is 31 in November and coming off a season in which he led the league in drops. He also led the league in targets, a number that should go down this season with Julio Jones’ emergence. He’ll have to be more efficient to match his numbers from 2011 and I don’t think he will be.

Projection: 84 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/226 pts PPR)

20. Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Garcon was overpaid in free agency, but he did have 70 catches for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns last season with Curtis Painter throwing him the ball. I don’t know if he’s capable of producing at a high level without Reggie Wayne opposite him, but he should have his first 1000 yard season with Robert Griffin throwing him the ball.

Projection: 70 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/212 pts PPR)

21. Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

I’d be wary of buying high on Cruz. He did nothing before his breakout year last year and his 18.7 YPC is going to be hard to maintain. Nicks and Cruz had equal amounts of targets last year, Nicks with 133 and Cruz with 131. If that happens again this year, they’ll probably have more similar stats. I also like Nicks to have the edge in touchdowns.

Projection: 64 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/206 pts PPR)

22. AJ Green (Cincinnati)

With Andy Dalton having the sophomore slump I’m predicting for him, Green’s production will obviously dip a bit. He’s still too talented not to be a fantasy starter, however. He could still see his touchdowns increase next season. The 7 he had in 2011 seems awfully low for someone as talented as Green, however much Dalton does like targeting tight end Jermaine Gresham in the red zone.

Projection: 62 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

23. Steve Smith (Carolina)

Steve Smith had a major bounce back year in 2011 with 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he’s now 33. Even Hall of Fame receivers tend to start declining majorly around 33-35 so he’s definitely a risk early in drafts, as good of chemistry as he has with Cam Newton.

Projection: 65 catches 1040 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (140 pts standard/205 pts PPR)

24. Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)

8/27/12: Mike Wallace is expected to report sometime this week, possibly even tomorrow. He’s still a strong candidate for a down year after an extended holdout because he could be out of top football shape and because he missed a whole offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in. The Steelers have another receiver, Antonio Brown, who is just as talented, if not more so, who has been there all offseason. He’ll be the Steelers’ primary target at least for the first half of the season, benefiting from Wallace drawing the attention away from him. He could be their primary target all season. Plus, remember, Brown had 677 yards to Wallace’s 393.

7/27/12: Mike Wallace will either play out the season under his one year tender or be traded. Regardless of whether or not he gets traded, Wallace’s fantasy value could take a major hit this season. If he reports, it’ll likely be after a long holdout, which could led to him getting out of shape and will cost him valuable time learning the playbook, while other receivers like Brown and Sanders are gaining greater mastery of Todd Haley’s new system. He could also hold out into the season.

If he gets traded, he’ll be traded to a team likely with an inferior quarterback and receivers have a poor track record when switching teams, especially this close to the season. It takes time to learn a playbook and get adjusted to a quarterback. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues, especially at his current ADP in the early 4th round.

7/26/12: Mike Wallace’s holdout could get ugly. Right now, the Steelers won’t agree to negotiate with him until he reports to camp, but he won’t report to camp until they pay him. I don’t expect him to miss any games, at least not at the moment, but an extended holdout could hurt him on the field this season. He risks getting out of shape and more importantly he also misses valuable practice with in new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s system. Let him be someone else’s problem unless he falls to the point where he’s too good to pass on.

Wallace has had 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns and 1193 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last 2 years. He’ll be better if Big Ben can stay healthy for 16 games, but that never happens. Still, he’s a top-10 fantasy receiver once again.

Projection: 62 catches 1010 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (137 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

25. Wes Welker (New England)

8/7/12: Brandon Lloyd should have a strong year, which will eat at the aging Welker’s targets. He doesn’t average a lot of YPC or score a lot of touchdowns. He’s mostly a volume receiver, who ranked 2^nd in the league in targets this season, and he should see a smaller volume of targets this season. Tom Brady is good, but he’s not good enough for Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez ALL to have their normal levels of production at the same time.

Welker had a career year last year, but wasn’t quite as good down the stretch. After surpassing 100 yards 4 times in his first 5 games, he only had 4 more 100 yard games, including the playoffs, and after scoring 5 times in his first 4 games, he scored just 5 times the rest of the way, including playoffs. He’s getting older and he has a ton of competition for receptions, so it’s likely he regresses to his 2007-2009 self, which is still very good, but not elite in fantasy.

Projection: 100 catches 1040 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (134 pts standard/234 pts PPR)

26. Titus Young (Detroit)

7/26/12: Titus Young is fully expected to win the starting job opposite Calvin Johnson. Titus Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns as a mere rookie last year, despite 84 targets. Incumbent starter, Nate Burleson, caught 73 passes for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns on 110 targets. If Young had Burleson’s 110 targets last year, he would have caught 63 passes for 795 yards and 8 touchdowns if you extrapolate his numbers. In his 2^nd year in the league, he should exceed even those numbers, even if his team does pass less than the ridiculous 666 times they passed last year.

Projection: 66 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

27. Miles Austin (Dallas)

8/20/12: Miles Austin has missed all of the Preseason with hamstring problems. He should be fine for week 1, but hamstring problems tend to linger and he missed 6 games and caught just 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns last year because of hamstring problems. He’s got upside, but let him be someone else’s problem.

He’s an injury risk after only playing in 10 games last year, in which he caught 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, before last year in his previous 17 games with Tony Romo, Austin has 109 catches for 1725 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 103 catches for 1624 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s clearly the #2 receiver to Dez Bryant now, but there’s definitely buy low value with him.

Projection: 63 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

28. Darrius Heyward Bey (Oakland)

Darrius Heyward Bey proved he was more than fast last season, catching 64 passes for 975 yards and 4 touchdowns. His production was about the same with and without Carson Palmer so he should match those numbers this year.

Projection: 66 catches 960 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (132 pts standard/198 pts PPR)

29. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

8/7/12: I don’t know why Dwayne Bowe is holding out. He can’t be signed to a long term deal anyway. All he’s doing is hurting himself because other guys are impressing in his absence and other guys will have a better grasp of the offense with a new coaching staff in. Jonathan Baldwin has been a stud in his absence and will almost definitely eat into his production this season. All he’s doing is costing himself money on his next contract. He could also end up getting out of shape. He probably won’t miss any regular games, but let him be someone else’s problem this season.

Over the past 2 years, Dwayne Bowe has had 72 catches for 1162 yards and 81 catches for 1159 yards on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. However, I expect those numbers to dip a bit in 2012. The Chiefs have more options with Jonathan Baldwin going into his 2^nd year and Tony Moeaki coming back from injury and they figure to run a ton, maybe even more than in 2010. He is, however, the only Kansas City receiver with any fantasy value on a conservative offense with a mediocre quarterback. He should have more than the 5 touchdowns he had last year, but less than the obviously fluky 15 he had in 2010. Aside from 2010, his career high is 7 and after that it’s 5.

Projection: 65 catches 950 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

30. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

Jackson had 47 catches for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns in 14 games in 2010 and 58 catches for 961 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games last season. A lot of his “struggles” last year can be attributed to him not having a long term contract, which he has now so he should have somewhat of a bounce back season this year, even if his “down season” last year wasn’t even that bad statistically. You do have to consider with Jackson that hasn’t played a full 16 game season since his rookie year.

Projection: 59 catches 1010 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/190 pts PPR)

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1. Arian Foster (Houston)

In a weak year for running backs, Arian Foster is the only one I really, really love and I’m taking him #1 in a heartbeat. Yes, the Texans have Ben Tate, but they also run more than almost any team in the league. In the 12 games he was healthy last year, Foster had 268 carries for 1191 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 357 carries for 1588 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Matt Schaub will be back this year, but they won’t run any less. In the 6 games Foster and Schaub played in healthy last year, Foster carried the ball 161 times, which is 368 times over 16 games. He probably won’t have quite that many next season, but he should approach the 327 carries he had in 2010. A full season of Schaub should push his touchdown total closer to the 18 he had in 2010 than the 12 he had in 2011. He lost 2 starting offensive linemen, so he should be a little down from the 4.7 YPC he’s averaged in his career, but the Texans are so good at producing starting offensive linemen in their scheme that it might not matter that much.

Projection: 320 carries 1440 rushing yards 16 total touchdowns 60 catches 600 receiving yards (300 pts standard/360 pts PPR)

2. Ray Rice (Baltimore)

7/1/12: When the Ravens used a 3rd round pick on Bernard Pierce, I thought it would be so that Pierce (27 touchdowns in 11 games last year) could play Willis McGahee’s old role as a short yardage back and vulture touchdowns. However, Pierce is reportedly not impressing in practice and has yet to even leap Anthony Allen on the depth chart. It sounds like whoever Rice’s backup is will be a pure backup this year, so you can feel free to take Rice early in the 1st round in fantasy leagues unless he holds out long into Training Camp. Franchise tagged players can’t sign long term deals after July 16th so there wouldn’t be much point in him doing so however.

Ray Rice went from a good fantasy back to a great one last year when touchdown vulture Willis McGahee signed in Denver. This year, he should make the opposite transition. The Ravens spent a 3^rd round pick on Bernard Pierce, who scored 27 touchdowns in 11 games last year at Temple. He’ll vulture touchdowns away just like McGahee did. Rice also might not see the 307 carries he had in 2010 or the 291 carries he had in 2011 because they did spent a 3^rd round pick on a backup. Pierce is more talented than Willis McGahee or Ricky Williams.

His 4.7 YPC from 2011 should also decrease with Ben Grubbs leaving town, as well as the potential that Rice holds out into Training Camp. We all saw how that affected Chris Johnson last year. He should still be a good fantasy back, especially in PPR leagues, but he’ll be limited by his touchdown totals. The 5 guys ahead of him on the running back list, as well as some below him on this list, should score more frequently than him.

Projection: 290 carries 1310 rushing yards 13 total touchdowns 70 catches 620 receiving yards (271 pts standard/341 pts PPR)

3. LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

Andy Reid openly admitted he overused McCoy last season as the 208 pound speedster had a career high 321 touches. He shouldn’t have as many this year, but there is some talk that Reid was smokescreening by saying he’d cut McCoy’s touches. With YPCs of 5.2 and 4.8 over the past two years, he should still have a bunch of rushing yards either way.

He won’t score 20 times again, even without a decrease in touches. I don’t expect Michael Vick to rush for just 1 touchdown again, which will take a few touchdowns away from McCoy, who managed just 9 in 2010. Still, with his pass catching ability, his high YPC, and the explosive offense he plays on, he is once again a top-3 fantasy back.

Projection: 260 carries 1300 rushing yards 15 total touchdowns 60 catches 450 receiving yards (265 pts standard/325 pts PPR)

4. Chris Johnson (Tennessee)

Unlike last year, Chris Johnson won’t be more focused on getting paid this offseason than staying in shape. It took him until the 2^nd half of the season last year to even remotely resemble CJ2K, but in his last 8 games, he carried the ball 141 times for 681 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 282 carries for 1362 yards and 6 touchdowns. He could be even better this season, especially with the addition of Steve Hutchinson at upfront.

He’ll probably also get more carries. The Titans don’t have another back capable of challenging him and they should run more than the 376 times they ran last year, 30^th in the league. His touchdowns should also increase. The 22/8 passing/rushing touchdown ratio the Titans had last year should prove to be an outlier. Finally, if Jake Locker is under center, his rushing ability and ability to throw stretch the defense with his arm will take the defense’s focus off of Johnson. Johnson had his best years when Vince Young, who could do the same sorts of things, was under center.

Projection: 300 carries 1320 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 45 catches 350 receiving yards (233 pts standard/278 pts PPR)

5. Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

8/13/12: Mathews has broken his collarbone and will miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his week 1 and week 2 status in doubt, dampening the outlook for a player who looked poised to have a breakout year. He still remains a 1st round pick in fantasy circles, though, and he may be undervalued, going now in the late 2nd on average. Before the injury, he was going off the board 7th overall.

Yes, he will miss a game or two, but you had to figure he would when making projections for him. When in the lineup, he could easily lead all backs in fantasy points per game as the Chargers’ “everything” back. If he can play 14 or 15 games and not sustain another injury, he could still finish the year as a top-5 back. There’s no guarantees he won’t get hurt again, especially with his history, but collarbone injuries are not lingering injuries. Unfortunately, there’s not a good handcuff for him as Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and LeRon McClain, 3 mediocre backs, will split carries if he misses any time, making all 3 fantasy irrelevant.

I love Ryan Mathews this year. Allow me to explain. He’ll be the clear lead back for the first time in his career. The Chargers don’t have a good #2 back like they had what Matt Tolbert over the past 2 years, as well as Darren Sproles in 2010. Mathews will only have fullback Le’Ron McClain and Curtis Brinkley, who has 32 career carries, to compete with for carries.

In his 3rd year, the former 12th overall pick should rank among the league leaders in carries for the first time as long as he stays healthy. The Chargers have talked him up all offseason and said that he’s ready to be a feature back, which Norv Turner’s offenses normally have. For a back with a career 4.7 YPC, that could put him among the league leaders in rushing yards. He also plays on an explosive offense, which should be even better this year as Philip Rivers bounces back from one of his worst career seasons.

Mathews has never gone over 7 touchdowns in a season, but Mike Tolbert had 21 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. And, again, he’s gone. Finally, Mathews is a threat in the passing game. Last year, he caught 50 passes for 455 yards, numbers that should be up as Rivers’ bounces back and Mathews sees more of the field. Between Mathews and Tolbert, Chargers running backs caught 104 passes last year. Rivers loves throwing to his backs.

Projection: 260 carries 1170 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 52 catches 440 receiving yards (227 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

6. Matt Forte (Chicago)

7/26/12: Forte has signed and will not hold out. He was on pace for a career high 2145 yards from scrimmage before getting hurt last year through 11 games and through 8, he was actually on pace for the 2^nd most yards from scrimmage of all times. Michael Bush will steal some goal line carries, but when has he not had a back stealing goal line carries from him? Other than that, Bush will be a pure backup who will be lucky to get 1 carry for each of Forte’s 2. He’s a sneaky good value in the end of the 1^st, beginning of the 2^nd round in a year where good running backs are tough to find.

Like Ray Rice, there’s the threat of Forte holding out into Training Camp and becoming rusty. The Bears have also added Michael Bush through free agency so Forte should go back down to the 238 carries or so he had in 2010, rather than the 271 he was on pace for last season. Still, Forte is a top-10 back coming off of injury.

Projection: 250 carries 1150 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 60 catches 540 receiving yards (223 pts standard/283 pts PPR)

7. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

7/26/12: I’m moving Hillis down with the news that the Chiefs will try to have their backs touch the ball combined 500 times, but I’m actually moving Charles up because he’s been cleared for the start of Training Camp and should get the majority of the touches. There will be a 60-40 split or so and Charles, who has averaged 6.1 YPC in his career, could get a career high in touches. There’s major upside with him in the 2^nd round, provided he stays healthy and plays close to 100% of his 2010 self.

There’s buy low potential here with Jamaal Charles.  The Chiefs are going to try to replicate their 2010 offense so there will be plenty of carries to go around for both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they should split them evenly like Charles and Thomas Jones did in 2010. Charles has a career 6.1 YPC and figures to be able to make the most of those carries. Peyton Hills will get the goal line carries, but Charles should still have a solid year.

Projection: 250 carries 1250 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 40 catches 320 receiving yards (205 pts standard/245 pts PPR)

8. Shonn Greene (NY Jets)

7/1/12: Greene has he has been led to believe by the coaching staff that he will exceed the career high 253 carries he had last year. They don’t seem confident in backup Joe McKnight with LaDainian Tomlinson gone and they want to get back to running the football more. Greene isn’t very talented, but he’ll get you volume yardage as he could be one of the league leaders in carries if he stays healthy. Tebow will also help him the way he helped Willis McGahee last year.

The Jets didn’t add another back until the 6th round this year, even though they lost LaDainian Tomlinson, who was their #2 back. Some take this as a sign that they believe in Greene’s ability to take the next step as a back, but I take it as more of a sign of confidence for Joe McKnight than anything. Remember, this team had a lot of interest in moving up for Trent Richardson, which would have made Greene the #2 back. Greene should have similar production to last year, maybe a little better if Tebow takes over as the starting quarterback and forces front 7s to focus on his ability to run the ball as well. Just ask Willis McGahee how valuable that is. Tebow would probably vulture some touchdowns though, but Mark Sanchez could too. He scored 6 times last year on the ground.

Projection: 270 carries 1220 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (192 pts standard/222 pts PPR)

9. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle)

8/27/12: Wilson under center will be a good thing for Lynch. The Seahawks will become even more conservative and run more, while Wilson’s rushing ability will open things up on the ground for Lynch. I still don’t like Lynch to match his 2011 production because he’s an injury prone, one hit wonder, known for slacking off and probably will now that he’s gotten paid, but I’m moving him up.

8/13/12:  It sounds like Lynch won’t be suspended, at least in 2012, as Roger Goodell wants to wait until the result of his DUI case before assigning any penalty. That likely means that any suspension would take place in 2013, if ever. I still don’t like him this year, as a one year wonder, behind a poor offensive line, after getting a new contract, but I’m bumping him back up to my original projection for him.

7/26/12: Lynch was arrested again. He’s already been suspended for 3 games in the past so I expect some sort of 2-4 game suspension again for him. He also runs behind a poor offensive line (which is why he averaged just 4.2 YPC last year) and he was pretty mediocre in 2009-2010. Let him be someone else’s problem.

Lynch is another back I’m staying away from. He’s only managed more than 202 carries once in the last 3 years and that was last year. He’s been an underachiever most of his career and I expect that to be the case next year now that he’s gotten a new contract. He’s also often injured because of his running style.

Projection: 250 carries 1100 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 20 catches 170 receiving yards (187 pts standard/207 pts PPR)

10. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

9/2/12: MJD finally reported. Rashad Jennings will get the week 1 start regardless and could get the bulk of the carries for the first 2 weeks or so of the season as MJD gets back into football shape and learns the offense. There are also way too many similarities to the Chris Johnson holdout last year for me to be comfortable projecting MJD’s usual level of production until the 2^nd half of the season (Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC through the first 8 games last year and 4.8 through the final 8). MJD is also a candidate to get hurt lose carries some more carries than he originally would have is Jennings impresses in his tryout as starter. I’m moving him up, but he’s hardly a sure thing fantasy running back.

8/27/12: Maurice Jones-Drew has yet to report and says he’d “welcome a trade,” though he also said he’d prefer to stay in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have announced that Rashad Jennings will start week 1 regardless as MJD will take some time to get back into top football shape and because he missed an entire offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in.

This is a smart move by the Jaguars because this situation is eerily similar to Chris Johnson’s situation last year and Johnson averaged 3.0 yards per carry for the first half of the season before looking like his old self and averaging 4.8 per in the 2^nd half of the season. Don’t expect MJD’s production to resemble his normal levels of production until around midseason and he’s also an obvious injury risk if he’s out of shape. Remember, he’s had a lot of usage over the past 3 years (1084 touches). Those types of guys are injury risks to begin with.

7/1/12: Maurice Jones Drew might be the most serious holdout this year. The Jaguars are refusing to even talk contract right now with him and he should miss at least the start of Training Camp unless something drastically changes. This reminds me a lot of Chris Johnson’s holdout last year and Johnson was out of shape as a result of it. MJD is also coming off leading the league in carries, which means he could be more worn down this season, and he’s on a terrible offense that isn’t in the red zone much and frequently faces 8 man fronts. He’s incredibly talented, but I’d let someone else take him in the 1^st round.

Maurice Jones Drew led the league in carries last year. History suggests that this means he’ll have a down year this year. At the same time, he’s so talented, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had yet another fantastic season. He probably won’t have the 343 carries he had last year, especially with his top backup Rashad Jennings coming back from injury. His YPC and touchdown potential are also stagnated by the offense he plays on. Nonetheless, he should be one of the top fantasy backs this year.

Projection: 250 carries 1080 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 300 receiving yards (186 pts standard/223 pts PPR)

11. Ahmad Bradshaw (NY Giants)

The Giants spent a first round pick on a back this year, which shows they’re committed to getting back to the run in 2012. David Wilson is more talented than Brandon Jacobs, but he won’t steal all the goal line carries. Wilson is also only just a rookie, which, if you look at what rookie first round pick backs have done in history, suggests he won’t have a huge impact, at least as a rookie.

Bradshaw is still the guy at least this year. And you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter. All 5 of those guys had arguably the best season of their careers in the season immediately after their team drafted a back early.

Projections: 230 carries 1010 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 38 catches 300 receiving yards (185 pts standard/223 pts PPR)

12. Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

8/27/12: Doug Martin has not only won the 3^rd down job, but he’ll probably get the bulk of the 1^st and 2^nd down work too. Blount is still a valuable handcuff because of the history of rookie running backs in the NFL (1^stround backs have averaged 165 carries per year as rookies since 2007) and because the Buccaneers will run a lot, but Martin is moving up.

Doug Martin will be the lead back over LeGarrette Blount, but rookie running backs haven’t had a ton of success in the past and Blount, however useless he is on 3^rd down, is still a great runner on 1^st and 2^nd down and could see a fairly even split with Martin in Martin’s rookie season on downs 1 and 2, especially if Blount shows up in shape this season. He wasn’t last year, but a new coaching staff and a new back to compete with could very well change that.

Projection: 240 carries 1060 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches 300 receiving yards (184 pts standard/219 pts PPR)

13. Darren McFadden (Oakland)

8/27/12: I’m still down on McFadden, but I’m moving him up because he’s looked really good this preseason. He’s not worth a 1^st round pick though. He’s way too injury prone. He’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 227 carries and has only once gone over 113 carries in 4 seasons. He’s their everything back, but he’s almost a sure bet to miss 3-4+ games, at least.

Darren McFadden has only once gone over 113 carries in 4 seasons. There’s upside here, but there’s also downside. He’s a talented back who averages 4.8 YPC over his career and he’ll have no competition for the lead back job if he’s healthy, I just don’t trust him to be healthy.

Projection: 200 carries 960 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 41 catches 350 receiving yards (179 pts standard/220 pts PPR)

14. Steven Jackson (St. Louis)

8/31/12: Isaiah Pead has failed to lock down the #2 back job behind Steven Jackson. He will split the role with follow rookie Daryl Richardson. This is good and bad news for Jackson’s fantasy stock. The good news is that there’s no immediate threat to his workload and he should see the type of carries he’s used to so long as he’s healthy and running well. The bad news is that there’s no obvious handcuff should he get hurt so you’re taking a big risk with Jackson that he doesn’t get hurt or decline. History suggests he might have one more good year in him so he’s worth that risk in a weak running back class outside of the top-10 backs.

Like Michael Turner, Jackson will be getting a reduced workload this season, but Jackson’s reduced workload is more well known after the Rams spent a 2^nd round pick on a running back, Isaiah Pead. Pead will be able to do what Cadillac Williams and Jerious Norwood couldn’t last season, reduce Jackson’s workload. He’s also 29 in July and has 2138 career carries and stagnated fantasy wise by the offense he’s on. He’s only scored 10+ touchdowns once in his 8 year career.

Projection: 240 carries 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 40 catches 330 receiving yards (176 pts standard/216 pts PPR)

15. DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray is a very talented back and he should be the lead back because they only have the injury prone and disappointing Felix Jones behind him. There was even some talk that Jones would be traded or cut this offseason. However, Murray got hurt down the stretch last year, something that happened to him often at Oklahoma in college. It’s tough to project him among the league leaders in carries for that reason. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys have only rushed for an average of 10 touchdowns per season in the last 3 years, including just 5 last year.

Projection: 240 carries 1080 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 35 catches 250 receiving yards (175 pts standard/210 pts PPR)

16. Fred Jackson (Buffalo)

There was a time when Fred Jackson was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2011. In 9 games when he was healthy, he had 163 carries for 917 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 290 carries for 1630 yards and 11 touchdowns over 16 games. However, CJ Spiller was really good down the stretch for the Bills and they did use the 9^th overall pick on him 2 years ago.

Jackson is 31, though he has only 817 carries in his career because he spent years working his way up out of Division-III Coe College. They also just gave him an extension, but I still think we’ll see closer to a 2-1 split between Jackson and Spiller rather than the Jackson dominated split we saw early last year. I also don’t see him averaging 5.5 YPC again. He should still get the goal line carries and he catches the ball a good amount as well.

Projection: 200 carries 920 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches 350 receiving yards (175 pts standard/210 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

17. Frank Gore (San Francisco)

Jim Harbaugh said their selection of LaMichael James wasn’t an indictment on Gore’s ability, but I don’t think there’s any way the addition of James, as well as Brandon Jacobs, doesn’t cut into Gore’s carries as he heads into his age 29 season. He probably has another 2 good years as the lead back, but he won’t see the 282 carries he had last year, even if he does stay healthy for 16 games for just the 3^rd time in his 8 year career.

Projection: 220 carries 1010 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 35 catches 280 receiving yards (171 pts standard/206 pts PPR)

18. Trent Richardson (Cleveland)

8/27/12: Trent Richardson is expected to be back for week 1, so I’m moving him up slightly, but I’m still down on him because he’s a rookie on a poor offense and coming off an offseason in which he had 2 knee surgeries. He’ll be overdrafted.

8/13/12: Poor Browns. They just can’t catch a break. Trent Richardson will have to undergo surgery on his left knee. That surgery is just a scope so it’s as minor as it comes, but this is the 2nd time that knee has been operated on this year, so it’s not what you want to see from the player you just spent the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft on.

The Browns expect Richardson to be back for the opener, but that’s not certain and it’s definitely possible he’ll miss a couple games at some point this season with lingering knee pain. The Browns could also scale back his workload early in September. As talented as Richardson is, rookie running backs have had trouble adjusting to a 16-game NFL season in recent years as 1st round pick running backs have averaged just have just averaged 165 carries as rookies since 2007. It’s important to keep fantasy projections for him conservative as a rookie.

Richardson will be the feature back in Cleveland, but I’d be wary of drafting him too early. These are the 1^stround rookie running backs since 2007 and how many carries they had as rookies, as well as their yards per carry. Mark Ingram- 122 (3.9), CJ Spiller- 74 (3.8), Ryan Mathews- 158 (4.3), Jahvid Best- 171 (3.2), Knowshon Moreno- 247 (3.8), Donald Brown- 78 (3.6), Chris Wells- 176 (4.5), Darren McFadden- 113 (4.4), Jonathan Stewart- 184 (4.5), Felix Jones- 30 (8.9), Rashard Mendenhall- 19 (3.1), Chris Johnson- 251 (4.9), Adrian Peterson- 238 (5.6), Marshawn Lynch- 280 (4.0). Richardson is better than most, if not all of those backs, but I’d still temper my expectations because he could hit a rookie wall in his first 16 game season. He also doesn’t play on a very good offense, so his YPC and touchdown potential isn’t great.

Projection: 230 carries 980 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 32 catches 260 receiving yards (166 pts standard/198 pts PPR)

19. Michael Turner (Atlanta)

There was some talk about the Falcons cutting or trading Turner, who turned 30 this offseason. Instead, they’ll just be reducing his workload, which Mike Smith himself said. The coaching staff is really high on Jacquizz Rodgers, who figures to see more of the field in his 2^nd year. Meanwhile, Turner is on the wrong side of 30 and has 300+ carries in 3 of his last 4 seasons. I’ll let someone else overdraft him.

Projection: 200 carries 900 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 12 catches 100 receiving yards (160 pts standard/172 pts PPR)

20. Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put his original projections back.

8/27/12: Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle. It’s not a huge deal and he probably won’t miss more than a week or two, but he’s currently in a race to start week 1, so I’m moving him down slightly.

Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 150 carries 750 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 310 receiving yards (154 pts standard/191 pts PPR)

21. Willis McGahee (Denver)

8/20/12: McGahee’s top backup, Ronnie Hillman, has been dealing with hamstring problems all Preseason. Those things can linger, so it becomes less likely that Hillman overtakes McGahee, especially since Head Coach John Fox doesn’t like rookies. McGahee is still heading into his age 31 season, but he’s reportedly the clear lead back and he should get a bunch of carries and a bunch of goal line carries on an explosive offense.

There’s nothing but downside with McGahee this year after a surprise bounce back year last year. Remember, he’s a season removed from averaging 3.8 YPC as Ray Rice’s backup in Baltimore behind a better offensive line. Now he’s 31 in October. He’s getting drafted too early and Hillman is getting drafted too late as he has real sleeper value.

Projection: 200 carries 820 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 20 catches 130 receiving yards (149 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

22. Stevan Ridley (New England)

8/7/12: Of the Patriots two 2^nd year backs, Stevan Ridley has been the most impressive. He looks poised to take over almost the entirety of BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ old work load (410 carries in the last 2 seasons), leaving Vereen as most a change of pace back. He’s much more explosive than BJGE too and could have double digit touchdowns on this explosive offense.

7/26/12: Joseph Addai was cut. Move Ridley up slightly.

It’s always tough to know what Belichick is going to do with his backs. As it stands, it sounds like Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will fairly evenly split the early down carries and Woodhead will stay in his very specific role as a pass catching/3^rd down back. Ridley and BenJarvus Green Ellis combined for 268 carries last year. Ridley and Vereen should split those carries this year with Ridley probably being the lead back. Ridley has the most value in fantasy leagues because he’ll probably be the lead back and the goal line back. Bill Belichick is known to be a very frustrating coach for Fantasy Football owners, however.

Projection: 180 carries 850 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 14 catches 100 receiving yards (149 pts standard/163 pts PPR)

23. Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

7/1/12: The good news is that Peterson will probably be back for week 1. The bad news is that he may be Toby Gerhart’s backup when that happens, in an effort to ease him back in. I wouldn’t take him in the first 2 rounds, despite his upside, and if I did take him, I would make sure to grab Gerhart as a handcuff.

Adrian Peterson tore his ACL late last season, but he’s making a remarkable recovery and could play week 1. He put himself at 50/50 for Training Camp and it’s definitely a situation to monitor because of how good Peterson is when healthy. It wouldn’t be unheard of for Peterson to be back week 1. Wes Welker did the same in 2010 with a shorter recovery period. However, even if he plays all 16 games, I expect a career worst season for Peterson, as was the case with Welker in 2010. The Vikings won’t want to overwork him and will give some carries to Toby Gerhart, a former 2^nd round pick. He could also average a career low YPC.

Projection: 200 carries 840 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 21 catches 160 receiving yards (148 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

24. Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

I have Darren Sproles rated lower than most places. The reason behind this is that he gets so few carries, he needs to average a very high YPC and catch a ton of passes to be fantasy relevant. He did that last year, averaging 6.9 YPC and catching 86 passes for 710 yards last season. However, those were both clear career highs and probably not replicable. Also, 7 of his 9 touchdowns were receiving last year. 7 receiving touchdowns for a running back is also unheard of. I don’t see that as replicable either. He should still come close to all 3 of those numbers in an explosive offense and a role he fits in perfectly.

Projection: 80 carries 450 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 70 catches 600 receiving yards (147 pts standard/217 pts PPR)

25. Peyton Hillis (Kansas City)

7/26/12: The Chiefs reportedly want running backs Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles to touch the ball a combined 500 times next season, less than I originally projected (going off the 539 times that Charles and Jones touched the ball combined in 2010). However, they’ll still run a ton so Hillis is a decent RB3, who pass catches and will get the goal line carries. He’s also got a lot of upside since Charles is coming off a torn ACL.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combined for 475 carries in 2010. Hillis and Charles could approach that this season running behind a much improved offensive line. Remember, Hillis is less than 2 years removed from rushing for 1177 yards and 11 touchdowns on 270 carries on a stagnant Cleveland offense in 2010. He may not be as talented as Charles, but he catches passes and will get all the goal line carries. An inferior Jones scored 6 times in 2010. Hillis could get in double figures in 2012.

Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (147 pts standard/177 pts PPR)

26. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put Williams’ original projections back as well.

8/27/12: With Stewart getting hurt, even a minor injury, Williams gets the opportunity to be a pure feature back on one of the best running games in the league for a week or two. I’m moving him up slightly.

Copy and paste: Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 160 carries 800 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (144 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

27. Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

8/7/12: Mark Ingram is healthy and the Saints reportedly want him to have 200 touches or more this season. He was on pace for 213 as a rookie in 10 games, missing 6 with injury. There’s definitely upside with him potentially having a breakout year in 2012. He’ll also get the goal line carries, which there figure to be plenty of in New Orleans.

I’m not expecting the breakout season for Mark Ingram that many are. For one, he just had another knee surgery. He’s not the most durable player. Two, the Saints have 2 other talented backs, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, to take carries from him. Finally, no Saints’ running back has surpassed 176 carries since 2006. Sean Payton loves to use multiple backs and he has multiple talented backs once again this season. I know Payton isn’t the coach, but their two interim coaches are both former Payton assistants. The offensive philosophy will likely be the same. Besides, I’m sure Sean Payton will find some way to bend the rules or break them without getting caught and have some influence on this team.

Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 25 catches 170 receiving yards (142 pts standard/167 pts PPR)

28. Donald Brown (Indianapolis)

With Joseph Addai gone, Donald Brown looks like the clear lead back in Indianapolis. However, the former 1^st round pick has had a very inconsistent career. Both Delone Carter and Vick Ballard could challenge for his job at some point this season if he struggles. There is some upside here with Brown in an improved Indianapolis offense.

Projection: 180 carries 770 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 20 catches 180 receiving yards (137 pts standard/157 pts PPR)

29. LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay)

Everyone is assuming that the selection of Doug Martin by the Buccaneers will be doom for LeGarrette Blount in Tampa Bay. However, you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter.

Tampa Bay is still planning on running the ball a ton this year and rookie running backs tend to disappoint so Blount should still get a good amount of carries. He’ll actually be motivated this year with a new coaching staff and a 1^st round running back to compete with. However useless he is on passing downs, he’s still a good runner when he wants to be and he could get the goal line carries. There’s some buy low upside with him given where he is being drafted.

Projection: 180 carries 810 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 8 catches 60 receiving yards (129 pts standard/137 pts PPR)

30. Cedric Benson (Green Bay)

8/27/12: Cedric Benson is reportedly really impressing the Packers, to the point where James Starks might not even make the roster, in favor of a less injury prone, albeit less talented option like Brandon Saine. Benson will be the clear lead back on an explosive offense, albeit one that doesn’t run much, while Alex Green will serve solely as a change of pace back.

8/13/12: The Packers have signed Cedric Benson. He’ll get the opportunity to run behind a great offensive line and he’ll have plenty of room to run with the Packers’ passing game spreading things out. Heading into his age 30 season, he’s got little to no explosion, but he can run through holes and he should get the bulk of the Packers’ early down work as he was signed in response to James Starks’ disappointing Training Camp, preseason, and his recent turf toe injury. He’s also shown surprisingly durability with 956 touches over the past 3 seasons, 5^th in the league over that time period behind only Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and Steven Jackson. On top of all that, he’ll get the goal line work on one of the league’s most explosive offenses. He’s the Packers’ running back to own.

Projection: 160 carries 720 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 20 catches 140 receiving yards (128 pts standard/148 pts PPR)

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1. Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In his last 27 games, including the playoffs, Rodgers has thrown for 72 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 7912 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 43 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 4689 yards. He’s also rushed for 1136 yards and 12 touchdowns in 4 years. Yeah, he’s the top fantasy quarterback. Your biggest concern with him if he’s your fantasy quarterback is that the Packers have such a good season that he doesn’t have to play weeks 16-17.

Projection: 4580 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (375 pts standard, 455 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

2. Tom Brady (New England)

8/7/12: I’m moving Brady’s production up a little with Brandon Lloyd dominating in camp. Tom Brady was 346 for 470 (73.6%) for 4420 yards (9.4 YPA), 39 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions when throwing to Welker, Gronkowski, and Hernandez. Throwing to everyone else, he was 131 of 216 (60.6%), 1719 yards (8.0 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions (the rest were throw aways and other non-targets). Brandon Lloyd will undoubtedly help, as will the presence of Josh McDaniels.

Tom Brady threw for 5235 yards last year on the strength of 611 passing attempts, but he’s only twice gone over 580 attempts in a season and the Patriots should have a better defense next year. I also think his 8.5 YPA from last year is unsustainable as he’s only gone over 8 twice in his career. The other time he did that was 2007, when Josh McDaniels was his offensive coordinator.

McDaniels is back, but Brady is also aging, turning 35 in August. He had noticeably diminished arm strength in 2011 and completed just 16 passes that went further than 20 yards in the air. He has a strong receiving corps, but I like Brees and Stafford a little bit more because of how much their offenses pass. They won’t have to average more than 8 YPA to approach 5000 yards.

Projection: 4730 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (332 pts standard/408 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

3. Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Drew Brees was insane last season with 5476 yards, 46 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He won’t be that good again for 3 reasons. One, no one does that. Two, he lost one of his starting receivers, Robert Meachem. Three, he lost his Head Coach. He should see his YPA go down, as well as his TD:INT ratio, but the Saints have thrown the ball 1315 times in the last 2 years so Brees has a chance to get 5000 yards again. They didn’t make an outside hire for interim head coach so the offensive philosophy will remain the same.

Projection: 4930 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (325 pts standard/401 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

4. Matt Stafford (Detroit)

7/26/12: Like with Megatron, nothing new to report here, but my projections were a little high here. He’s unlikely to have 663 passing attempts again and he’s only once played all 16 games. He’s still a one year wonder not quite on the level of Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. He’s still a nice value if you can get him in the 3^rd round though.

I like Matt Stafford’s chances to approach 5000 yards again as well. No team passes the ball more than the Lions. They passed 663 times last year and 633 times in 2010 without Stafford. He has a ton of weapons in Calvin Johnson, Titus Young, Nate Burleson, Ryan Broyles, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler. He might not throw for 41 touchdowns again, but he still deserves to be a high pick in fantasy circles.

Projection: 4720 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdown (305 pts standard/375 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

5. Cam Newton (Carolina)

7/26/12: One of the things I realized while writing my season preview for the Panthers is that a predictable decrease in rushing touchdowns for Newton would led to not only Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams rushing for more touchdowns, but also Newton throwing for more touchdowns, even if he does have a predictable sophomore slump.

Cam Newton could be overdrafted based on what he did last year. He’s still a strong QB1, but I think there’s a good distance between him and the 4 quarterbacks above him on this list. Anyone who expects him to rush for 14 touchdowns again doesn’t understand football. The all time leader in CAREER rushing touchdowns by a quarterback is Steve Young, who had 43. Young never had more than 7 in any single season. That number is a fluke if I’ve ever seen one. He’ll probably run less overall to preserve his health long term. He could also see his passing numbers decrease slightly with Steve Smith aging and the possibility of a sophomore slump.

Projection: 3920 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 600 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns (298 pts standard/342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

6. Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

8/27/12: I was worried about how Matt Ryan would do in the Falcons’ new offense because it didn’t seem to fit his skill set. I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Ryan has completed 45 of 60 (75.0%) for 549 yards (9.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Only Russell Wilson has a higher QB rating than him. He’s got plenty of upside in the Falcons’ new explosive offense and plenty of weapons around him. He looks ready for a career year.

7/26/12: Again, nothing new to report here, but when I was doing Atlanta’s season preview, I got a better feel for the type of season we can expect from Ryan this year. He’ll be asked to throw downfield for often and throw more often overall, which should lead to a career high in yards, but also to a career high in interceptions and a career low in completion percentage. Ryan is one of the least accurate deep throwers in the NFL over his career, completing just 31.9% of his passes that go 20+ yards in the air in his career, including 25% last year. This is opposed to 64.4% on the rest of his throws.

Matt Ryan is nothing, but consistent. And boring. But, you can call it consistent. In 2010, he had 3705 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. In 2011, 4177 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He should have a similar season this year, only slightly better as I’m projecting a breakout season from Julio Jones.

Projection: 4430 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdowns (291 pts standard/353 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

7. Tony Romo (Dallas)

He takes a lot of heat in real life, but Romo is a great fantasy quarterback, possibly underrated, in fact. With the exception of 2010 when he played just 6 games, he’s averaged 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and he’s gone over 4100 yards in his last three 16 game seasons.

Projection: 4320 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (280 pts standard/338 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

8. Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Philip Rivers inexplicably regressed last season and had one of his worst seasons as a starter and certainly an inferior season to his past 3. I like his chances to bounce back, but at the same time, he’s also lost Vincent Jackson, his top receiver. Then again, he did fine without Jackson in 2010 when he was holding out so he should be fine.

It says a lot that Rivers can still deservingly go to the Pro Bowl in 2011, even though he had such a disappointing season that people wondered all year whether or not he was hurt. In his last 6 games in 2011, he had 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 1601 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 4269 yards. He should be fine. I conservatively averaged his numbers from his last 2 seasons to get my projections.

Projection: 4670 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (275 pts standard/333 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

9. Robert Griffin (Washington)

Cam Newton’s rookie season has fantasy players very excited about Robert Griffin and rightfully so. Griffin won’t rush for the 14 touchdowns Newton rushed for because, well no one does that. As I said under Cam Newton’s write up, the all-time leader in quarterback rushing touchdowns is Steve Young with 43. In his career. And he never had more than 7 in a single season.

He might not rush for as many yards either, but he’s a more refined passer at this stage of his career than Newton was so he could have better passing numbers, especially in Mike Shanahan’s passer friendly offense. They passed 591 times in 2011 with Rexohn Grossbeck. At the very least, I think Griffin will threw fewer interceptions than Newton’s 17. Griffin is a solid low-end QB1 at worst with good upside.

Projection: 3800 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 440 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns (272 pts standard/312 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

10. Jake Locker (Tennessee)

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here. For the short version, I feel the same away about the Titans and Jake Locker that I felt about Matt Stafford and the Lions last year. You have to be conservative, but even if you are, Locker makes a lot of sense as a low end QB1. That team has drafted so well in the past 4-5 years and looks ready to pop.

8/20/12: The Titans have named Jake Locker starting quarterback. Locker averaged 8.2 YPA and had 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions last season, but he also only completed 51.5% of his passes. He has accuracy issues dating back to his days at Washington and if his last Preseason start is any indication (4-11 for 21 yards), those aren’t past him. He has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (270 pts standard/320 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

11. Peyton Manning (Denver)

I’m projecting a down season for Peyton Manning for several reasons. For one, he’s going to a new team, in a new division, with a new system, and new players, new coaches, new surroundings, everything new. The continuity is gone for Peyton Manning, which is never a good thing. Two, he’s got inferior players around him, at least in comparison to the 2000s Colts or even the 2010 Colts, which had two receivers, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, who almost had 1000 yard seasons last year with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky.

Three, he was out of football all last year. In 2010, he struggled by his standards for half a season after just missing training camp. Four, he’s coming off of 4 neck surgeries in 2 years. Enough said. Five, he’s 36 and a declining player. He was a declining player even in 2010 and that was 3 neck surgeries and almost 2 years ago. His arm strength wasn’t what it used to be and I can’t imagine it’s any better now. I expect him to have a season worse than 2010, when he had 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 touchdowns, particularly because he won’t throw the ball 679 times, which he did in 2010.

Projection: 4370 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (264 pts standard/322 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

12. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

Like Robert Griffin, Andrew Luck should be a solid QB1 with upside as a rookie. I expect him to have better passing numbers than either Newton or Griffin, but he won’t match either of their rushing numbers, which is why Griffin has the advantage over Luck in fantasy, at least for this year.

Projection: 4000 passing yards, 23 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 240 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (260 pts standard/306 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

13. Eli Manning (NY Giants)

This might seem a little low for the Super Bowl MVP, but Eli has never been an elite fantasy quarterback. The Giants will probably pass less this year after they added a first round running back in David Wilson to compliment Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, I don’t expect Manning to maintain a completely uncharacteristic 8.4 YPA from last season. Before that, his career high was 7.9 and he’s only twice gone over 7.4. In fact, I don’t expect Eli to even approach the near 5000 yards he had last year. Before last year, his career high was 4021 yards. Expect a regression towards the norm for ELIte.

Projection: 4160 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (253 pts standard/311 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

14. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo)

There’s upside to be had here. In 7 games before going down with a rib injury last year, Fitzpatrick threw for 1739 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. After 7 games, Fitzpatrick really struggled, but that rib injury, as well as injuries to offensive players like Demetress Bell, Eric Wood, and Fred Jackson, were probably largely to blame. Over 16 games, that’s 3975 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.

Of course, he had never done anything like that in his career before then and it’s possible he gets hurt again, so there is downside for the league’s leader in interceptions last year. I basically averaged those projected stats with his actual stats from last year to get my projection for him. I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as my starter, but if I couldn’t grab an elite quarterback to be my starter and had to settle for a middle of the run starter, Fitzpatrick would probably be my choice as a high upside backup if available.

Projection: 3900 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 220 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (252 pts standard/304 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

15. Matt Schaub (Houston)

There was a time when Schaub was an elite fantasy quarterback, but the Texans have become more of a run heavy team with Arian Foster and Ben Tate over these past few years. In fact, in 10 games last year, Schaub threw the ball 292 times, which translates to 467 times over 16 games. They should pass a bit more than that this year, but if they don’t, and Schaub can’t maintain his career high 8.5 YPA from last year, he could throw for less than 4000 yards. He also only had 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 10 games last year, meaning 25 and 10 over 16 games. And then, of course, he’s missed at least 5 games in 3 of 5 years as a starter. He’s pretty low on the fantasy totem pole this year. This might even be a little high.

Projection:  4120 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 30 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (247 pts standard/297 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

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