New York Giants Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Linval Joseph

August 19, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Giants

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New York Giants, that player is defensive tackle Linval Joseph.

The Giants have one of the best defensive lines in the league. They ranked 3^rd in the league with 48 sacks last season and their defensive line play was a key part of their Super Bowl run. When you think of their defensive line, the obvious names come to mind: Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, etc. You probably don’t think about Linval Joseph, but if he keeps it up, you will.

Joseph was a 2010 2^nd round pick and, in his first season as a starter in 2011, Joseph played very well. After playing just 63 snaps as a rookie, Joseph played 611 in 2011 in the regular season. On 304 pass rush snaps, he had 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, a rate of 6.6%. If you include his postseason production, he was even more impressive as he had 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 389 pass rush snaps, a rate of 8.0%.

His improvement as the season went on is a large part of why I think he can have a breakout year in 2010, his 3^rd year in the league. In his last 6 games, he had 3 quarterback hits and 12 quarterback pressures on 133 pass rush snaps, a rate of 11.3%. Joseph was also unlucky to manage just 2 sacks last season. His 6.4 pass productivity rate was tied for 5^th in the league. If he does that in 2012, which is definitely possible if he continues his down the stretch performance, he should have somewhere between 4-6 sacks.

Joseph also gets it down against the run, ranking 5^th in the league in run stop percentage with 25 run stops on 286 run stopping snaps, a rate of 8.7%. If you include playoffs, he ranked only slightly lower, 9^th, with a rate of 8.3%. The big 328 pounder’s specialty has obviously always been the run, but if he continues to improve as a pass rusher, he would be the complete package and could break out as one of the better defensive tackles in the league.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Philadelphia Eagles Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Brandon Graham

August 19, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Eagles

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Philadelphia Eagles, that player is defensive end Brandon Graham.

When the Eagles traded up to 13 in the 2010 NFL Draft to grab Brandon Graham, they thought they were getting a safe, reliable pass rusher who could be a solid starter for them and would likely not bust. Now, two years later, they have a player who has played just 538 snaps in 2 seasons and who is best known for being the guy the Eagles took instead of Jason Pierre-Paul, the high upside, risky prospect who the Giants drafted 2 spots later and turned into a Pro Bowler.

Graham has been a bust thus far in his career, but largely for reasons out of his control. Graham suffered a nasty knee injury late in 2010, which required microfracture surgery and cost him the rest of that seasons and limited him to just 58 snaps in 2011. Before the injury, however, Graham had a bright future. With 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 273 pass rush snaps in 2010, Graham had a very impressive 13.2 pass rush rate as part of the Eagles defensive end rotation. Despite his limited playing time, Graham actually ranked 20^th on ProFootballFocus among 4-3 defensive ends as pass rushers in 2010. Among eligible players, his 10.8 pass rush efficiency rate was 13^th that season.

2011 was basically a completely lost year for him. He barely played due to injury and when he did play, he wasn’t effective because he was out of shape and he had lost his starting job to Jason Babin, who the Eagles signed in the 2011 offseason, after Graham’s injury. The Eagles used a 2^nd round pick on Vinny Curry in the 2012 NFL Draft, but have not given up on Graham, according to a report by the Philadelphia Inquirer. Graham seems to have used the Curry selection as motivation as he has shed weight and is now back to the 265 pounds he was at during 2010 and before the draft.

Graham won’t beat out either of the starters, Jason Babin and Trent Cole, for a starting job. Those two combined for 29 sacks last year and they’re not going anywhere any time soon. However, the Eagles love rotation on the defensive line. Even last year, as good as Babin and Cole played, they combined for just 1360 snaps played and reserves played a combined 624 snaps at defensive end. There’s a reason they spent a 2^nd round pick on Vinny Curry. That’s how much they value defensive end depth.

Graham definitely has the ability to beat out Curry for the top reserve job and if he does that and stays healthy and in shape, he could see a good amount of playing time and become one of the better rotational ends in the NFL. He may have only had 3 sacks in 2010, but he played well enough to have 5 or 6 sacks. He was just unlucky. He could do that or even better this season. The Eagles already had 50 sacks last season, tied for the league lead. With Fletcher Cox coming in and Graham having the potential for a breakout year, the Eagles should match or even exceed that number in 2012.

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Washington Redskins Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Perry Riley

August 18, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Commanders

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Washington Redskins, that player is middle linebacker Perry Riley.

Midway through last season, the Redskins made a switch at middle linebacker next to London Fletcher, substituting the then inexperienced Perry Riley, a 2010 4^th round pick, for the struggling Rocky McIntosh and then may have discovered their long term successor for London Fletcher, who is heading into his age 37 season. McIntosh, through 8 games, had just 42 solo tackles, 10 assists, 7 missed tackles, and 20 stops.

Riley, however, in their next 8 games, had 42 solo tackles, 16 assists, 7 missed tackles, and 34 stops. If he played all 16 games and maintained his rates, he would have had 84 solo tackles, 32 assists, and 68 stops, which would have ranked 16^th, 1^st, and 2^nd at his position. His 14 missed tackles would have been 3^rd worst at his position, but you can still see the kind of production he would have had if he had started all 16 games.

He ranked 5^th at his position with a run stop rate of 12.6%, with 26 run stops on 206 run snaps. He needs to become a more efficient tackler, as he ranked 39^th out of 51 eligible middle linebackers in tackling efficiency (missed tackles per tackle), but on run stops, he actually ranked 24^th. He mostly struggled with tackling on coverage snaps, missing 4 tackles, as opposed to just 18 total tackles (12 solo, 6 assists).

Coverage, in general, was a bit of a struggle for him. He allowed 29 completions on 36 attempts (80.6%) for 269 yards (7.5 YPA) and a touchdown. His poor tackling in coverage undoubtedly contributed to this as 197 of his yards allowed were after the catch. For reference, that ranked 24^th among eligible middle linebacker, while his total yardage allowed ranked 29^th. If he can shore up that part of his game, it will go a long way towards making him a true 3 down linebacker. Heading into his first full year as a starter, he could easily emerge as one of the better middle linebackers in the league, especially against the run.

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San Francisco 49ers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Mike Iupati

August 18, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, 49ers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the San Francisco 49ers, that player is guard Mike Iupati.

It was tough to find a breakout player for the 49ers because basically their entire starting defense broke out last season, which basically eliminated a whole side of the ball for me to choose from. However, they do have one budding Pro Bowler on their offensive line, left guard Mike Iupati. Iupati was the 17^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, the highest drafted interior offensive lineman since the Seahawks took Steve Hutchinson in the same spot in 2010.

Iupati played very well in his 2^nd season in the league, ranking 11^th on ProFootballFocus with a 9.6 rating, playing every snap except 4. He was equally good as a run blocker and pass protector and allowed just 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures, while committing just 4 penalties. However, he was even better in his final 11 games, as his rating was 13.6 over those 11 games. If you include the 49ers’ two playoff games, his rating was 14.4 over 13 games, which would have ranked 7^th at his position last year.

Heading into his 3^rd season in the league, he has the upside to become a top-5 guard and make his 1^st Pro Bowl, which was obviously the hope when the 49ers used such a high pick on him and his massive upside in 2010. He was a bit raw coming from small school Idaho, but he seems to be finally coming into his own and ready to take his place among the best interior offensive linemen in the league.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Gerald McCoy

August 18, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Buccaneers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that player is defensive tackle Gerald McCoy.

Gerald McCoy was the 3^rd overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft and he’s played very well when healthy. However, he’s been oft injured in his first 2 years in the league, playing just 19 of 32 possible games. When he’s healthy, the Buccaneers are 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game and when he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game.

That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers than they did in 2010. However, he’s a huge part of their defense and will be a big boost to them and their reigning worst defense in the league (30.9 points per game) if he can play 16 games this season.

McCoy played 695 snaps as a rookie in 2010, ranking as ProFootballFocus’ 18^th ranked defensive tackle and his rating in 2011, on just 228 snaps, would have ranked 29^th last year, despite his limited playing time. In his career, he has played 923 snaps. He’s had 5 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures on 523 pass rush snaps, a very impressive 7.8% rate for his position. He has a career pass rush productivity rate of 6.5, which would have ranked 6^th at his position last season.

He’s also had 25 solo tackles, 7 assists, and 21 stops, while missing just 3 tackles. His 15 run snap stops on 352 run snaps is good for a run stop rate of 4.3%, which would have ranked 38^th last year, out of 44 defensive tackles. However, he was getting better against the run in 2011 before he got hurt with 6 run snap stops and 80 run stops, a rate of 7.5%, which would have ranked 14^th last year, had he been eligible.

If he plays, let’s say, 800 snaps next season, and maintains his career rates, he would have 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 23 quarterback pressures, 22 solo tackles, 6 assists, and 18 stops. Those would have ranked 12^th, 5^th, 7^th, 29^th, 34^th, and 32^nd, at his position, while playing the 8^th most snaps. Heading into his 3^rd year in the league, he’s obviously got the ability to get better, especially against the run, which is the weaker part of his game. He was better in 2011 than he was in 2010, especially against the run, before his injury.

While, he’s better as a pass rusher than a run stuffer, if he plays all or most of next season, he could easily break out as one of the best defensive tackles in the league and make his 1^st Pro Bowl. There’s a reason that he, along with Ndamukong Suh, was the first defensive tackle drafted in the top-3 since Gerard Warren in 2001. He’s very talented.

Chicago Bears Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Henry Melton

August 18, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Bears

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Chicago Bears, that player is defensive tackle Henry Melton.

Henry Melton played very well in a rotational role last season, playing 639 snaps, primarily pass rush snaps (437), and recording 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures, good for a very impressive 8.9% rate. At his position, he ranked 3^rd in sacks, 2^nd in quarterback hits, and 7^th in quarterback pressures, despite ranking 13^th in pass rush snaps. His pass rush productivity rate was 4^th in the league. He also ranked 17^th overall on ProFootballFocus at his position, despite playing only the 23^rd most snaps.

Heading into 2012, the 2009 4^th round pick is expected to get a larger role in his 4^th year in the league, with key rotational players Amobi Okoye and Anthony Adams gone. Those two combined to play 910 snaps last year. 2011 2^nd round rookie Stephen Paea will help take some of those vacated snaps, but Melton will almost definitely get more snaps this season, particularly on run downs, where he was also above average last season with a run stop percentage of 8.0%, which would have ranked 13^th in the league had he had enough run snaps played to qualify. Already the team leader in snaps played among defensive tackles in 2011, Melton could play 700-800 snaps in 2012 and find himself making his first Pro-Bowl.

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Arizona Cardinals Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Rob Housler

August 18, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cardinals

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Arizona Cardinals, that player is tight end Rob Housler.

For years and years, the Cardinals have been known as a team that doesn’t use the tight end position very much. In fact, not since Freddie Jones’ final season in 2004, excluding last season, have the Cardinals had a tight end have more than 270 receiving yards in a season. When the Cardinals used a 3^rd round pick on Rob Housler in the 2011 NFL Draft, it signaled the start in a shift in offensive mentality, not coincidentally at the same time that the league as a whole is passing to the tight end more often.

Housler was the 69^th overall pick, the earliest they had drafted a tight end since they used the 64^th overall pick on Johnny McWilliams in 1996. Since then, the only other tight end that had drafted in the first 4 rounds was Leonard Pope, in the 3^rd round, 72^nd overall, in 2006, and he was largely drafted for his blocking prowess. For years, tight ends in Arizona’s offense were only big blockers. Housler was the exact opposite of that type of player. At 6-5 248, he’s not much of a blocker at all, but he possesses 4.4 speed and the kind of hands that allowed him to catch 71 passes for 1148 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 2 collegiate seasons at Florida International.

While Housler didn’t have much of an impact as a rookie, the offensive mentality shift could still be felt. Tight ends were thrown to 93 times, or on 17.1% of the Cardinals’ passing attempts. For reference, the Cardinals threw to tight ends a total of 110 times from 2008-2010 COMBINED, or on 6.2% of their passing attempts. Todd Heap was their first tight end since Freddie Jones in 2004 to have more than 270 receiving yards in a season, catching 24 passes for 283 yards and a touchdown, while #2 tight end Jeff King was not far behind, catching 27 passes for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns.

All in all, Cardinals’ tight ends caught 65 passes for 712 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. That’s not a lot, but compared to what their tight ends normally did, that was a ton of production. The switch in offensive mentality was there. The talent just wasn’t, as Todd Heap is washed up now heading into his age 32 season, while Jeff King is a mediocre player whose 27 catches last year were actually the 2^nd highest total in his 6 year career. Housler, meanwhile, was a mere 3^rd round rookie and barely saw the field, catching just 12 passes for 133 yards. However, heading into his 2^nd year in the league, Housler is talented enough to be the player who makes the most of the Cardinals’ switch in offensive mentality.

Reports from the Arizona Republic have said that Housler has received a “ton of work” in offseason practices and that he “will be given every chance to chance to become a breakout player.” They also reported that it’s “clear” that the Cardinals will be using the tight end more in the offensive game plan this season and that the Cardinals are “excited” about Housler’s ability.

Larry Fitzgerald was quoted as saying “to be honest with you, I think the tight ends are probably our strongest position on the field right now.” Even if that’s not quite true, it’s still very good to hear. Meanwhile, SI’s Peter King notes that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt “loves” Housler and believes he could finish the season as the Cardinals’ leading receiver. Housler’s potential is hurt by the Cardinals’ quarterback situation, but no Cardinals’ receiver had more than 689 yards last season so it’s not ridiculous that Housler could finish 2012 as their 2^nd leading receiver. He’ll probably finish the season with somewhere between 500-700 receiving yards and be a TE2 with upside in fantasy leagues.

New Orleans Saints Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Patrick Robinson

August 18, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Saints

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New Orleans Saints, that player is cornerback Patrick Robinson.

Patrick Robinson was a 1^st round pick of the New Orleans Saints in 2010 and he played very well limited action last season, essentially playing every 3-cornerback set and splitting time as the #2 cornerback in 2-cornerbacks sets with Tracy Porter last season. Robinson played 756 snaps as opposed to Porter’s 706, but now that Porter is gone, he’s a full time starter and could approach the 1016 snaps played by #1 cornerback Jabari Greer last year.

Despite his limited playing time, Robinson graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 19^th rated cornerback last year, in large part because he ranked 8th among eligible cornerbacks with a 59.3 QB rating allowed. He allowed 42 completions on 76 attempts (55.3%) for 523 yards (6.9 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and committing 2 penalties.

He also did this with a terrible pass rush in front of him, which ProFootballFocus rated by far the worst in the league. They managed 33 sacks last year, but that was despite blitzing more than any team in the league. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers and getting pressure without blitzing, which should make life easier for the defensive backs. Heading into his 3^rd year in the league, Robinson has the potential to break out as one of the top cornerbacks in the league.

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Seattle Seahawks Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Matt Flynn

August 16, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Seahawks

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Seattle Seahawks, that player is quarterback Matt Flynn.

Matt Flynn was the latest in a line of backup quarterbacks to get a starting job and starting salary based on limited action backing up a proven and experienced starter. He joins a group that includes Matt Hasselbeck, AJ Feeley, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, and Kevin Kolb, among others, over the past decade. Aside from Hasselbeck and Schaub, no one from that group has really had any success, especially not lately, and Flynn, who the Seahawks signed to “compete” to be their starter (although the competition was essentially a formality, that’s just how the Seahawks operate), got a 3 year 19.5 million dollar contract with 10 million guaranteed off of just 2 starts this offseason, the least of anyone in that group, aside from Hasselbeck.

However, like Hasselbeck, Flynn is going from Green Bay, where he played well in limited action behind an elite quarterback, to Seattle, which has Green Bay ties. Seattle traded for Hasselbeck in 2001, giving up a 3^rd round pick and a swap of 1^st round picks for him and a 7^th round pick. Hasselbeck had been selected 3 years earlier by the Packers and Mike Holmgren in the 6^th round and he spent 3 years backing up Brett Favre, obviously never seeing a start, and completing 13 of 29 for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns in mop up duties.

Holmgren, then with Seattle, needed a starting quarterback and traded for Hasselbeck, hoping what he had seen of him in practice and limited action on the field in the regular season and Preseason, would translate to the field as a full time starter. It was a big leap of faith, but it worked out as Hasselbeck made 3 Pro-Bowls, a Super Bowl, and took the Seahawks to the playoffs 6 times in 10 seasons. The Seahawks and GM John Schneider, who was with the Packers in 2008 as Director of Football Operations in 2008, when they drafted Matt Flynn in the 7^th round, are making a similar leap of faith this offseason.

Flynn only has 2 career starts, but they were both very good starts. In 2010, he started against New England and completed 24 of 37 for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception and in 2011, he started against Detroit and completed 31 of 44 for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns to 1 interception, setting a Green Bay record for passing yards in a game, more than Bart Starr, Brett Favre, or Aaron Rodgers. In his career, he completed 82 of 132 for 1015 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He’s definitely got the upside to become one of the top-15 quarterbacks in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Derrick Morgan

August 16, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Titans

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Tennessee Titans, that player is defensive end Derrick Morgan.

Derrick Morgan was a 1^st round pick of the Titans in 2010, going 16^th overall. He barely played as a rookie, playing just 114 snaps, before tearing his ACL week 4. For what it’s worth, he played well in very limited action, managing 2 sacks and 7 quarterback pressures on 64 pass rush snaps, a 14.1% rate, and he also played the run well.

In 2011, he struggled mightily last season with 3 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures on 378 pass rush snaps (7.4%), though he played the run pretty well. He was not fully back from that torn ACL, as he had to have another minor operation on the knee before the season and he played the whole season with a knee brace.

Heading into 2012, he’s shed the knee brace and is having a strong offseason. His Head Coach, Mike Munchak, said this about him, “I think he has that potential. We are excited about him. I feel like last year he was our fifth rookie starter. I think he has a year behind him with his injury, and we are expecting big things out of him.”

I really liked him coming out of Georgia Tech in 2010, where he had 55 tackles, 18.5 for loss, and 12.5 sacks in 2009 and I think he’s still got potential going into admittedly a make or break season for him. He’s got little to no competition for the starting job and, unless he’s damaged goods with that knee, he could have a breakout year in 2012.

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2012 NFL Off-Season

New York Giants Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Linval Joseph

Philadelphia Eagles Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Brandon Graham

Washington Redskins Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Perry Riley

San Francisco 49ers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Mike Iupati

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Gerald McCoy

Chicago Bears Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Henry Melton

Arizona Cardinals Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Rob Housler

New Orleans Saints Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Patrick Robinson

Seattle Seahawks Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Matt Flynn

Tennessee Titans Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Derrick Morgan