2012 NFL Off-Season

Cleveland Browns Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Greg Little

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Browns

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Cleveland Browns, that player is wide receiver Greg Little.

Coming out of North Carolina last season, Greg Little was seen as an incredibly talented and athletic, but incredibly raw receiver. He had all the physical tools, but he missed the entirety of his final season at North Carolina with a suspension and his career highs at North Carolina were 62 catches for 724 yards and 5 touchdowns and his career stats in college were 86 catches for 969 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, the Browns took a chance on Little in the 2nd round in 2011 anyway, because of his immense upside.

Even though Little was the type of receiver who needed a year or two to develop, he was forced to be the #1 receiver right away, out of sheer necessity, because of how bad the Browns’ receiving corps was. He was actually tied for 17th in the NFL with 113 targets, but had fewer catches, yards, and touchdowns than every single other player in the top-17 in targets, managing just 61 catches for 706 yards and 2 touchdowns. He ranked 77th in the league in QB rating when thrown to as quarterbacks completed just 54.0% of their passes to him for 6.2 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.

Some of that was the inept play of the Browns’ quarterbacks, as Browns’ quarterbacks combined to complete just 56.1% of their passes for 5.8 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. However, some of that was just Little being incredibly raw. Little dropped 14 passes, tied for 2nd in the NFL. No other receiver in the league had less than 121 targets and more than 9 drops. His drop rate, predictably, was worst in the NFL. Meanwhile, his 4.1 YAC per catch ranked in the bottom half of the league, 69th out of 115. For these, and other reasons, he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ worst pass catching wide receiver.

However, as Little heads in his 2nd season, he will be much more experienced and much less raw. The offseason reviews of him have been very favorable. ESPN Cleveland said he “dedicated the offseason to reshaping his body in an effort to add quickness,” as evidenced by the 11 pounds he lost, while Browns beat writer Mary Kay Cabot came away saying that he was capable of “maybe even a Pro Bowl-type of year” this year, after seeing him throughout the offseason.

The other problem for him last season, the quarterback, has been, if not fixed, then definitely upgraded as the Browns’ used the 22nd overall selection on Brandon Weeden. He still has no competition for balls as all the Browns did to upgrade the wide receiver position this offseason was using a 4th round pick on Travis Benjamin and a 2nd round pick in the supplemental draft on Josh Gordon, two very raw receivers. If Weeden can be even a league average starter, Little could have his 1st 1000 yard season in 2012.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Indianapolis Colts Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Austin Collie

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Colts

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Indianapolis Colts, that player is wide receiver Austin Collie.

Austin Collie was one of my favorite breakout candidates and fantasy sleepers heading into 2011. In 2010, he caught 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in only 9 games because of injuries. Injuries also knocked him out of several games, so he didn’t play 9 full games. In fact, Collie managed just 286 routes run in 2010 because of injuries and yet still had good production. Collie ranked 9th in the NFL in yards per route run with 2.27. Teammate Reggie Wayne, meanwhile, ranked 20th with 1.97 yards per route run.

Collie also led the league in QB rating when thrown to as Peyton Manning had a whopping 143.4 QB rating when throwing to Collie, completing 58 of 70 passes (82.9%) for 649 yards (9.3 YPA), and 8 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. The Colts had 679 passing attempts in 2010. Had Collie run that many routes and maintained his rates, he would have had 138 catches for 1541 yards and 19 touchdowns.

Now, obviously, those numbers are pretty impossible. No one does that. Not even teammate Reggie Wayne, who caught 111 passes for 1355 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010. The Colts probably wouldn’t pass quite as much as they did in 2010 and eventually defenses would catch on to Collie and start giving him some extra attention. However, Collie appeared healthy going in 2011 and looked poised to win the starting job full time from Pierre Garcon and, at the very least, he would have been a heavily relied on slot receiver. Something like 85 catches for 1000 yards and 9 scores was totally reasonable a projection for him with upside.

However, then Peyton Manning got hurt. Manning wasn’t there in Training Camp and Collie didn’t have the same chemistry with any of the replacements that he had with Manning, who likes a particular type of receiver that Collie’s skill set fit to a tee. Collie lost his starting job to Pierre Garcon and had to play just on the slot. When Manning didn’t come back all season, Collie, all of a sudden, was the #3 receiver on a terrible passing team and his numbers suggested that, as he caught just 54 passes for 514 yards and a touchdown on 98 targets.

He ended up ranking 85th out of 95 eligible receivers in QB rating when thrown to, 55.3, as Colts’ quarterbacks completed just 54 of 98 passes (55.1%) for 5.2 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions. He also ranked 77th in yards per route run, 1.17. The only positive of the 2011 season for Collie was that he managed to play all 16 games, proving his injury prone 2010 season was just a fluke. He’s played all 16 games in 2 of his 3 seasons in the NFL and the 2010 4th round pick doesn’t have a history of injuries dating back to his time in college at Brigham Young University.

They say fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Well, I’m willing to endure the shame on me, if fooled again, and I’m predicting a breakout year from Austin Collie again. Obviously, Peyton Manning is gone, but Andrew Luck is obviously an upgrade over the crap they had at quarterback last season and he’s a very similar style quarterback to Manning. He’s always preferred sure handed possession receivers who are strong route runners and that’s what Collie is. He’s showed good chemistry with Collie in the Preseason, as he was his leading target and receiver in their first Preseason game (3 catches for 45 yards on 5 targets), and in Training Camp.

And, while Peyton Manning is gone, so is Pierre Garcon, so the starting job is essentially all his. The only players “competing” with him for his starting job are two rookies, 3rd round pick TY Hilton and 6th round pick LaVon Brazill, and Donnie Avery, an injury prone player with 3 catches in the last 2 seasons. Avery was making a push for his job before a recent hip injury, so it looks like the starting job is all Collie’s. He’s also earned lots of praise from his coaching staff and members of the local media. The Anderson Herald Bulletin reported that he was getting a legitimate chance to be an every down receiver, a report seconded by ESPN.com and by the Colts’ coaching staff.

As a starting receiver, Collie could definitely lead the team in receiving. He doesn’t have much to contend with. I already detailed the receivers below him on the wide receiver depth chart. Meanwhile, at tight end, the Colts have two rookies, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. They’ll have an impact, but they’re just rookie tight ends so they’ll probably just be their 3rd and 4th leading receivers, at best.

The opposite starting receiver is Reggie Wayne. Wayne has had an amazing career and even had a strong year last year, all things considered, catching 75 passes for 960 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, he’s heading into his age 34 season, which is right around when receivers’ abilities fall off a cliff.

11 of the top-20 all-time in receivers yards have played in the last decade (when passing and receiving totals have exploded). Of the 11, 9 had a 1000 yard season at age 33 or older, 8 had a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older, 6 had a 1000 yard season at age 35 or older, 2 had a 1000 yard season at age 36 or older, and only Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season after age 37. The average age of a final 1000 yard season is 34.5.

In 21 total combined seasons after their last 1000 yard season, they combined for 1003 catches (47.8 per season) for 12476 yards (594.1 per season) and 70 touchdowns (3.3 per season). Of the 11, 9 played at age 34 or older, 8 played at age 36 or older, 6 played at age 37 or older, 2 played at age 38 or older, and only Jerry Rice played after age 38. The average age of a final season is 36.5

The point, even great receivers don’t play well into their mid 30s. Even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne is heading into his age 34 season and ranks 22nd all-time with 11,708 yards, which means he’ll probably finish his career right in the middle of that top-20 group (10th all-time is Torry Holt, who had 13,328 yards, about 1620 more than Wayne).

If history holds, Wayne will see a steep drop off in production in either 2012 or 2013 and be out of the league by 2014 or 2015. Collie would seem to be the obvious beneficiary if Wayne’s decline comes this season and even if it doesn’t, Collie should still have a strong year and finish as the team’s 2nd leading receiver. He could also lead the team in receiving and have his first 1000 yard season in 2012, his 4th year in the league.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Houston Texans extend OT Duane Brown

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Texans

After years of being an average left tackle, 2008 1st round pick Duane Brown finally showed why the Texans used that 1st round pick on him last year, making all 18 of the Texans’ starts en route to an eventual loss to the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional round. Brown, impressively, was the only offensive tackle in the league to make more than 6 starts and not allow a single sack and Brown did it in 18 starts.

Sacks don’t tell the whole story, but Brown also only allowed 4 quarterback hits and 23 quarterback pressures in 18 games and ranked 8th at his position in pass blocking efficiency and 3rd at his position overall on ProFootballFocus. And it’s not like he was protecting quarterbacks who had a knack for getting the ball out quick and avoiding sacks. He started the season protecting one of those, Matt Schaub, but Schaub got hurt and Texans’ quarterbacks overall took a sack on 33 of their 167 pressured snaps, good for a very middle of the pack 19.8%. There’s no doubt that Brown was an elite blindside protector last season.

In an ideal world, the Texans would have made able to make him prove it again. However, the Texans are not in that ideal situation because they need the franchise tag for Matt Schaub, who they are rightfully making prove he can stay healthy. The Texans wouldn’t have had the luxury to franchise Brown if he has another elite season in 2012 and would risk losing an incredibly valuable player on the open market. Left tackle is arguably the 2nd most valuable position in football and, for that reason, you almost never see a franchise left tackle available on the open market. It’s almost as rare as seeing a franchise quarterback on the open market.

Besides, Brown’s extension seems to reflect that he hasn’t been a perennially elite player yet. It’s not like they gave him a contract similar to the perennially elite Joe Thomas (8 years, 92 million, with 44 million guaranteed). Brown’s extension is for 6 years, 53.4 million with 22.08 million guaranteed and tacked on to a 2.082 million dollar salary for the 2012 season. That’s totally reasonable, especially when you considered that a significantly inferior offensive tackle, Ryan Clady, recently turned down 5 years, 50 million from the Broncos. Clady has allowed 20 sacks, 18 quarterback hits, and 120 quarterback pressures in the last 4 seasons, while struggling as a run blocker, and was ProFootballFocus’ 62nd ranked offensive tackle out of 73 last season.

Clady, Brown, Jake Long, and Branden Albert were all part of a strong 2008 NFL Draft left tackle class, all of whom have their rookie contracts expiring this season. Brown was the first to sign an extension and may end up being the most inexpensive of the bunch, especially if Albert continues his strong play from 2011. Long and Clady will both almost definitely get bigger contracts than Brown, especially since Clady will have the benefit of Peyton Manning making him look good this season. Brown is not quite as perennially proven as Long, but he outplayed all 3 of those players last season and he’s definitelyworth more than both Clady and Albert.

With Brown under contract, the Texans will now turn their focus to Connor Barwin as they try to lock up what might be the most talented free agent class of any team in the league. Schaub will not get an extension before the season as the team is rightfully trying to make him prove he can stay healthy. If he can do that, he should be able to lead this team to a very successful season and would be well worth the very expensive quarterback franchise tag (16.1 million in 2012) and the top-5 quarterback contract that will follow.

Grade: A

St. Louis Rams Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Robert Quinn

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Rams

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the St. Louis Rams, that player is defensive end Robert Quinn.

Robert Quinn was the 14th overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft by the Rams and widely considered a steal. The Rams must have thought so too as they drafted him, even though defensive end wasn’t a primary need. Because it wasn’t a primary need, Quinn only played a rotational role as a rookie, but he played very well. He had 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures on 341 pass rush snaps, a rate of 10.6%, which is very solid. With starter James Hall gone this offseason, Quinn is expected to become a starter and basically an every down end in his 2nd year in the league.

Quinn could definitely approach the 515 pass rush snaps had by Chris Long, the only every down end the Rams had last season. If he maintains last year’s rates, he would have 9 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 31 quarterback pressures if he plays that many pass rush snaps this season. He could also easily surpass last year’s rate, with his immense talent, going into his 2nd year in the league.

He drew rave reviews for his performance this offseason and new Head Coach Jeff Fisher is known for getting the most out of defensive lineman, particularly as pass rushers. He could definitely have a double digit sack season, giving the Rams two double digit pass rushers. He did struggle against the run last season, but he could also be improved in that aspect this season.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Green Bay Packers Potential Breakout Player of 2012: DJ Smith

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Packers

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Green Bay Packers, that player is middle linebacker DJ Smith.

GM Ted Thompson and the Green Bay Packers are widely considered one of the best drafting teams in the NFL. Never was this more apparent than on their 2010 Super Bowl run, when they won the Super Bowl despite 16 players going on IR. Guys kept getting hurt, but, because they draft so well, especially late in drafts, they had great depth and were able to plug in guys to not just fill the holes, but to play well enough for the team to make it all the way to the Super Bowl. 19 of their 22 offensive and defensive starters that year were either drafted by the Packers or signed as undrafted free agents.

One key injury was to middle linebacker Nick Barnett. Barnett, a homegrown player of the Packers, who they drafted in the 1st round in 2003, was going into his 8th year as a starter for the Packers. He had exceeded 100 tackles in 6 of his previous 7 seasons, 120 tackles 4 times, and 130 tackles 3 times.  However, he only played 4 games in 2010 because he went on IR with a season ending wrist injury.

In his place, the Packers plugged in Desmond Bishop, a 6th round pick in the 2007 NFL Draft. Bishop was a largely unknown player who had tallied just 55 tackles in 3 seasons before 2010. However, he proved to be a star, filling in for Barnett, and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked middle linebacker that year, en route to a Packers’ Super Bowl victory. Barnett played so well that it became an easy decision for the Packers to cut Barnett, an aging player, in the 2011 offseason, making Barnett the long term starter. In 2011, he wasn’t quite as good, but ranking 14th at his position on ProFootballFocus isn’t too shabby.

However, Bishop recently suffered a ruptured hamstring in a Packers’ preseason game and will get surgery and likely miss the entire season. Can they plug in another player and still get above average play from the position? If DJ Smith, a 2011 6th round pick, continues to play like he did in limited action last season, they can.

Making 4 starts in place of injured starters and playing just 267 snaps total, Smith had 26 solo tackles, 10 stops, 8 assists, and only missed 2 tackles. Further breaking it down, he had 15 solo tackles, 7 assists, and 8 stops (while not missing a single tackle) on 97 run stopping snaps, rates of 15.5%, 7.2%, and 8.2%. For comparison, Bishop had 56 solo tackles, 14 assists, and 28 stops on 258 run stopping snaps, rates of 21.7%, 5.4%, and 10.9%.

Bishop was better, but Smith wasn’t bad and, remember, last year was Smith’s rookie year. Extrapolate his play in 4 starts to 16 starts and he would have had 60 solo tackles, 28 assists, and 32 stops, which would have ranked tied for 7th, tied for 1st, and tied for 17th at his position last year. If you extrapolate his total tackle stats (on pass and run plays), he would have had 104 solo tackles, 32 assists, and 40 stops last year, while only missing 8 tackles. That would have ranked him 7th, tied for 1st, and tied for 24th, and tied for 27th at his position last season.

He was above average in 4 starts last season as a mere 6th round rookie and, even before Bishop’s injury, his strong play this offseason had him in the running for some passing down snaps, in place of AJ Hawk, who would become a two-down linebacker. With Bishop hurt, his coaching staff has full trust and support of him as what they call a “100% player.” He could definitely prove himself to be a more than adequate replacement and keep his job long term in 2013, which would likely lead to the marginal and overpaid Hawk being cut. The Packers appear to have uncovered another diamond in the rough with the 2011 6th rounder out of Appalachian State.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Cincinnati Bengals Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Carlos Dunlap

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Bengals

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Cincinnati Bengals, that player is defensive end Carlos Dunlap.

Carlos Dunlap had a very good rookie year with 10 sacks as a rotational player and when he had just 5 sacks in 2011 in a larger role, it was seen by some as a disappointment. This made sense. After all, Dunlap made noise as a sophomore at the University of Florida with 13.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks as a situational player in 2008, leading to everyone calling him a potential top-10 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. When he didn’t take that next step as a player when he became an every down player in 2009, managing just 11 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks with more snaps, his stock fell and he ended up going in the 2nd round.

However, upon closer examination, that’s not what happened with Dunlap in Cincinnati from 2010 to 2011. In 2010, he did have 10 sacks on just 216 pass rush snaps, but only 3 quarterback hits and 11 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 11.1%. In 2011, he had have just 5 sacks on 291 pass rush snaps, but he also had 13 quarterback hits and 29 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 16.2%. Playing the run well as well, something he improved on from his rookie year, Dunlap actually graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in the regular season, despite his still limited role.

Whereas in 2010 he was lucky to get 10 sacks, in 2011, he was unlucky to get just 5. If you combine what he did in his first 2 years in the league, he had 15 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 507 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 14.0%. That just gives you an idea of the kind of production he could if given every down snaps, provided he can maintain the same rates.

Headed into his 3rd year in the league, Dunlap is expected to get yet another increase in playing time as the Bengals lost Jonathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker, who combined for a total of 907 total snaps in the regular season last year, in free agency. They didn’t really do anything to replace them, aside from signing the disappointing Jamaal Anderson and possibly moving 2nd round pick rookie Devon Still to end.

For that reason, Dunlap should get more playing time, possibly a lot more. He probably won’t be quite an every down end. The Bengals love rotation on the defensive line and haven’t had anyone be an every down end in a while. However, he should get enough snaps to prove himself as one of the best pass rushers in the league, which he has been so far in his career in a limited role. The one concern is that he disappoints like he did in 2009 at Florida, but he’s got way too much talent not to be considered a breakout candidate.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Oakland Raiders Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Denarius Moore

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Raiders

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Oakland Raiders, that player is wide receiver Denarius Moore.

Denarius Moore is an incredibly athletic wide receiver with 4.3 speed at 6-0 190, but he really didn’t do anything for the first 3 and a half years of his collegiate career at Tennessee. From 2007-2009, he caught 65 passes for 1023 yards and 9 touchdowns combined and then through the first 7 games of 2010, he caught just 18 passes for 257 passes and 4 touchdowns. However, through the final 6 games of that season, he caught 29 passes for 724 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Raiders took a chance on him, based on his athleticism and his performance in the 2nd half of 2010, hoping the light had turned on for good, and used a 5th round selection in the 2011 NFL Draft on him.

They had to have been pleased with the results. As a rookie, Moore caught 33 passes for 618 yards and 5 touchdowns in just 13 games and he has nailed down a starting job heading into 2012. His performance was very impressive for a rookie. Discounting Julio Jones and AJ Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007. And Moore did all that as a 5th round rookie, coming off a lockout.

In his 2nd year in the league, he should be even more improved. Moore has drawn rave reviews about his offseason and, if they are true and translate to the field, he’ll have a great season. ESPN.com’s Bill Williamson, who specializes on the AFC West, said that he expects Moore to be the best receiver in the AFC West in 3 years and Steve Corkran of the Contra Costa Times, a very reliable source on the Raiders, said that Moore would be the Raiders #1 receiver in 2012. Meanwhile, NFL Films guru Greg Cosell compared him to Mike Wallace. Wallace had a similar rookie season, catching 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns in 16 games and then caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns in his 2nd year in the league in 2010.

Moore also got a lot of praise from quarterback Carson Palmer who said that Moore was capable of becoming a more “complete player” in his 2nd year in the league and that he is “going to be a star” in the NFL. He also said that he was someone he “could not be more excited about” in 2012. It’s very interesting that Palmer would say this because Moore was Palmer’s favorite receiver after he came in last year.

In 6 games with Palmer, Moore caught 19 passes for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 51 catches for 1083 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. He could have a 1000 yard year in 2012, which would make him a breakout player. The only thing standing in his way are injuries as he missed 3 games last season and is currently dealing with a hamstring problem. However, if he’s healthy and plays all or most of the season, he should have a breakout year.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Detroit Lions Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Titus Young

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Lions

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Detroit Lions, that player is wide receiver Titus Young.

Young was a 2nd round pick in 2011 and had an immediate impact as a rookie, catching 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns. In his 2nd year in the league, he’s fully expected to win the starting job opposite Calvin Johnson in Detroit’s explosive offense. The starter last season was Nate Burleson, who had 110 targets. If Young had gotten that many targets last season, he’d have had 66 catches for 832 yards and 8 touchdowns. Even though Detroit might not pass quite as many times as they did last season (a league leading 666 times), Titus Young could still exceed even those numbers.

He’s no longer a rookie. Rookie receivers tend to struggle. Discounting Julio Jones and AJ Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007. And Young did all that as a 2nd round rookie, coming off a lockout.

In his 2nd year in the league, he should be much improved, especially if reports about his strong offseason are accurate and translate to the regular season. MLive’s Anwar Richardson, one of the most reliable sources on the Lions, called Young “almost impossible to stop during practices” and “amazing” and said that “nobody can defend” him, while Head Coach Jim Schwartz said that he was outstanding. He’ll see mostly single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson, and with his natural abilities in Detroit’s explosive offense, he could push for a 1000 yard year in his 2nd year in the league, which would definitely make him a breakout player.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Denver Broncos Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Eric Decker

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Broncos

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Denver Broncos, that player is wide receiver Eric Decker.

Eric Decker was the Broncos’ leading receiver last year, but with just 44 catches for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns. That’s because the Broncos ranked last in the NFL in passing attempts with 429 and 2nd to last in the NFL in passing yards with 2434 yards. With Peyton Manning coming in, that’s obviously going to change. But which receivers are going to be the biggest beneficiaries of Manning’s presence?

Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are the starters so obviously they’ll be bigger beneficiaries than the non-starters, but which of those two will be the biggest beneficiaries? A lot of people think it will be Demaryius Thomas. Thomas is a freak athlete who ran in the 4.3s at 6-3 230 in 2010, leading to him getting drafted by the Broncos’ in the 1st round that year and he caught 35 passes for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns in his final 7 games, including playoffs, in 2011.

However, Decker caught 20 passes for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 4 games of the season in 2011 with Kyle Orton. He obviously didn’t have the same kind of chemistry with Tim Tebow that Demaryius Thomas did, but Decker has proven that he can have chemistry with traditional drop back quarterbacks, something Thomas hasn’t. He’s also showing much better chemistry with Peyton Manning in Training Camp, which makes sense.

Manning actually asked the Colts to draft Decker in the 3rd round in 2010, but the Broncos got to him a few picks before the Colts could. He’s not the physical freak that Thomas is, but Manning has always preferred sure handed possession receivers with good route running ability over pure athletes and that certainly won’t change now that he’s older and has decreased arm strength. Peter King even suggested that, if he stays healthy all year, Decker could be among the league leaders in receptions, after witnessing the two in Broncos’ Training Camp.

Neither of these receivers are that proven overall, with Decker having 50 catches for 718 yards and 9 touchdowns in his career and Thomas having 54 catches for 834 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, if I’m going to pick one to have a breakout year, I’m going to pick that one that has at least some proven success with a drop back quarterback and the one that fits to a tee everything that Manning looks for in a receiver, so much so that Manning actually wanted his old team to draft him 2 years ago. If Austin Collie, a similar receiver, can catch 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in 9 games in 2010 with Manning, Decker can have at least a 1000 yard season in 2012, assuming he stays healthy, and maybe challenge for the Pro Bowl.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote).http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Houston Texans Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Brice McCain

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Texans

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Houston Texans, that player is cornerback Brice McCain.

The Texans lost a big and underrated part of their defense this offseason, losing #2 cornerback Jason Allen. Allen replaced Kareem Jackson, a 2010 1st round pick, in the starting lineup midseason in 2011 and played very well, allowing 39 completions on 77 attempts (50.6%) for 457 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties.

Jackson sucked as a rookie as a starter in 2010, allowing 57 completions on 86 attempts (66.3%) for 924 yards (10.7 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 4 penalties. He wasn’t much better in 2011, in a reduced role, allowing 38 completions on 62 attempts (61.3%) for 646 yards (10.4 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 5 penalties.

With Allen gone, Jackson will be forced back into the starting lineup. Unless he turns things around, he’ll really struggle. Fortunately, the Texans may have the answer waiting in the wings, Brice McCain, a 2009 6th round pick. McCain had a very strong season in a limited role last year. He was 8th at his position in terms of his rating in coverage on ProFootballFocus, despite playing just 482 snaps, and 2nd at his position in QB rating allowed, among eligible cornerbacks (25% of team’s snaps). He allowed 24 completions on 51 attempts (47.1%) for 251 yards (4.9 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 deflections, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 3 penalties.

He’ll start the season as the nickel cornerback, but so did Jason Allen last season. Jackson will be on a short leash and, if he continues to struggle and McCain continues to play well, McCain could steal his job midseason and, if he does that, he might not look back. It’s certainly a projection to say that he will be an elite cornerback, but he’s got the potential to be an above average starting cornerback and solidify the cornerback position in Houston opposite Johnathan Joseph.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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