2012 NFL Off-Season

Chicago Bears extend RB Matt Forte

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Bears, Offseason Moves 2012

Forte’s 4 year, 32 million dollar deal, with 18 million guaranteed, is less than the deals signed by Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, and DeAngelo Williams in terms of maximum and guaranteed money. Chris Johnson, who signed last offseason, signed to make 55.26 million over 6 years with 30 million guaranteed, once the extension was added to his existing 2 years. Foster got a 5 year, 43.5 million dollar deal this offseason, with 20.75 million guaranteed. LeSean McCoy added on a 5 year deal his remaining year, assuring him 45.615 million over 6 years with 20.765 million guaranteed. Williams got a head scratching 5 year, 43 million dollar deal, with 21 million guaranteed.

This all makes sense because other than the overpaid DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte is slightly worse than all of those backs. This deal is a little bit more on par with the 4 year, 31 million dollar deal, with 17 million guaranteed, signed by Marshawn Lynch this offseason. I don’t like paying running backs big money because I think you can get 80-90% of the production of 10-20% of the price, but this isn’t a bad deal or anything.

Grade: B

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Oakland Raiders extend S Tyvon Branch

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Raiders

The Raiders resigned franchise player Tyvon Branch today and did so at a rate cheaper than guys like Eric Weedle, Michael Griffin, and teammate Michael Huff have signed for in the last calendar year. All 3 of those guys got between 4-5 years at a rate of between 7-8 million per year, between 32-40 million maximum money, and between 15-19 million guaranteed money. Branch, meanwhile, got 4 years, 26.6 million, though with a whopping 17.1 million guaranteed.

Branch is a talented player who ranked only behind Troy Polamalu on ProFootballFocus against the run and he’s improving in coverage. The Raiders needed to get a deal done to free up some cap space, but credit them for getting it done without having to get desperate and giving Branch a new deal he didn’t deserve. My one issue is just how much of this contract is guaranteed.

Grade: B

New Orleans Saints extend QB Drew Brees

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Saints

What the hell took so long? I almost want to give this less than an A because it should have been done either last year or much earlier this offseason. It is a major hit to team morale when it takes the franchise quarterback this long to get paid. It makes the rest of the locker room question whether their front office has their best interests in mind and for a Saints team already taking morale and chemistry hits after BountyGate, that’s a very bad thing.

However, it would have been impossible for the Saints to overpay Drew Brees. There really isn’t a value on a franchise quarterback like him. There’s a reason that when a guy like Peyton Manning hits the open market, half the league is in on him even though he’s 36, missed all of last season, and is coming off of 4 neck surgeries. The Titans even offered him a contract worth 25 million dollars per year. Think of what Brees could have gotten on the open market.

The Saints now have their leader locked down for 5 years at a total of 100 million with 60 million guaranteed. They’ll have him there in Training Camp, which means this team should once again be considered the favorites in a division they won by 3 games last year, and they’ll remain contenders for years to come. Quarterbacks have a much longer shelf life than most positions so Brees should be able to, barring major injury, play at a high level through his age 37 season, the final year of his contract in 2016.

Grade: A

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Cleveland Browns use a 2nd round pick in supplemental draft on Josh Gordon

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Browns, Offseason Moves 2012

Anytime you can use a 2nd round pick on a player who hasn’t played football in 2 years, you have to do it. I don’t understand the infatuation with Gordon. He has off the field issues. He hasn’t played organized football for almost 2 years (which is the bigger issue). He only had one year of production at Baylor in 2010. Sure, he had nice tape and production for a mere 19 year old true sophomore (42 catches for 714 yards and 7 touchdowns), but that was two years ago.

If he had stayed out of trouble and had two more good years at Baylor, he probably would be a 1st round pick in 2013, but he didn’t and he’s still worth a 2nd? Given that the Browns figure to be one of the weaker teams in the NFL again next season, this pick will probably cost them a top-40 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Gordon was probably worth more in the 4th round range and a 2 round reach is a pretty major one.

Also, keep in mind the pretty terrible history that supplemental draft players have in the NFL (none have had any positive impact since Jared Gaither in 2007). There’s a reason the Browns were the only team to offer up their 2nd round pick for Gordon. No team is as receiver needy as they are (except maybe the Dolphins). This was a desperation pick that won’t work out and even if it does, it won’t for 2 years or so.

Grade: D

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Tennessee Titans resign S Michael Griffin

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012

Michael Griffin was the 19th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, but he didn’t always play like it. For example, in 2008 and 2011, he graded out above average on ProFootballFocus, ranking 13th among all safeties last year. However, in 2009 he was absolutely awful, getting torched in coverage, allowing 34 completions on 49 attempts (69.4%) for 741 yards (15.1 YPA!!!), 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, 5 deflections and one penalty, as he ranked 87th at the position out of 88 eligible. He was also pretty middle of the pack in 2010.

The Titans gave him a 35 million dollar deal over 5 years with 15 million dollars guaranteed so they obviously think those days are behind him and that he’ll continue to be an above average player. If that’s the case, this looks like a pretty solid deal. He’s getting less money per year and guaranteed than did Eric Weddle and Michael Huff last offseason and his contract will likely be matched by fellow franchise players Dashon Goldson and Tyvon Branch this offseason. If you rank Griffin’s play last season in a group of 5 that includes those 4 players just mentioned, he’d grade out 2nd behind only Weddle. He’ll just need to be consistent.

Grade: B

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Miami Dolphins sign Chad Ochocinco

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012

This is just a one year signing for minimal money, but I don’t like it. The Dolphins aren’t going to compete this year either way so all Ochocinco is going to do is take reps away from all of their young receivers, who need experience and a chance to prove what they can do for 2013 and beyond. I know the Dolphins have a rookie quarterback in Ryan Tannehill and they need to do everything to make sure he can succeed right away, but I don’t think Ochocinco has anything left. Wide receivers tend to fall off a cliff around age 33-34 and Ochocinco is currently 34 and had an awful year last year with the Patriots.

Besides, this move will hurt him long term because their young receivers won’t get a chance to prove themselves and that’s what’s more important. Tannehill might not even start this season as the starter. They drafted him with 2013 and beyond in mind, yet they made this move with 2012 and nothing else in mind. I don’t get it. Did they make this move to steal secrets about New England’s playbook from Ochocinco? Because he doesn’t even know it.

Besides, I don’t think the Dolphins did this to give their young quarterback every chance to succeed. If they wanted to do that they would have kept Brandon Marshall or used something higher than a 6th round pick on a receiver. They did it because they’re desperate for attention because no one goes to their games. That’s why they agreed to go on Hard Knocks, which no one wanted to do, and now it’s also why they signed Chad Ochocinco, who no one else wanted.

They would be terrible this year either way because they’re in rebuilding mode, but the last thing they need is distractions, a front office who makes moves for non-football reasons, and to be the laughing stock of the league, which is what they’ve become. On top of all this, Ochocinco might not even make the final roster, in which case they just flushed some money down the drain. Sadly that might be the ideal scenario for the Dolphins now.

Grade: D

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New England Patriots extend TE Rob Gronkowski

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012

As unprecedented as it is for a player to get a new contract after 2 years in the league with 2 years left on his rookie deal, I can’t think of anyone more deserving than Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski has caught 132 passes for 1873 yards and 27 touchdowns in his first 2 years in the league, including 90 for 1327 yards and 17 touchdowns last year, and is also the league’s best blocking tight end.

He’s truly on every down tight end who never comes out of the game in any circumstance. He led all tight ends with 1120 snaps played last year, 39 more than any other tight end. For reference, only 5 tight ends played 1000+ snaps and only 11 even played 900+ snaps. He’s still only 23 and he’s well deserving of this 54 million dollar deal over 6 years, the most for a tight end all time.

In fact, the way tight ends are changing the game now, this deal could look like a bargain in 2-3 years time when it no longer becomes “taboo” for tight ends to demand to be paid like wide receivers. That’s why it makes so much sense that the Patriots locked him up now, rather than in a year or two. If Gronkowski were a receiver, someone with his production last year at his age probably would have commanded at least 10-12+ million dollars per year. Hell, Vincent Jackson is 6 years older and has never come close to what Gronkowski did last year and he still got 55.5 million over 5 years. And that’s just factoring in what Gronkowski does as a receiver, before even factoring in his blocking ability.

Grade: A

Buffalo Bills Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Kelvin Sheppard

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Bills

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Buffalo Bills, that player is middle linebacker Kelvin Sheppard.

Kelvin Sheppard was a 3rd round pick of the Buffalo Bills out of LSU in the 2011 NFL Draft. Sheppard exceeded expectations as a 3rd round rookie last season, managing 70 tackles (46 solo, 24 assisted) and ranking 19th among all middle linebackers on ProFootballFocus against the run, despite only playing 442 snaps.

Sheppard was even better in his final 9 games, where he had 59 of his 70 tackles, despite still only playing in 369 of his team’s 592 snaps over that period. Perhaps most impressive, Sheppard only missed 1 tackle, fewest among eligible middle linebackers.

As he heads into his 2nd season in the league, he has a strong chance for a breakout year. He played most of his rookie year in the 250-255 range, which he even admits was overweight. Sheppard weighed in at 244 at The Combine in 2011 and has worked hard this offseason to get himself down to 240 pounds, where he is now.

This will not only improve his overall play, but allow him to be an every down linebacker in the Bills’ new 4-3 scheme and stay on the field on passing downs and in base packages. Coverage was a major issue for the overweight Sheppard as a rookie as he ranked 38th among 50 eligible middle linebackers in coverage, allowing 17 catches on 19 attempts for 178 yards and a touchdown, with only one deflection.

If Sheppard can nail down an every down role and play upwards of 800-900 snaps, he could easily have 100-120 tackles in 2012 and if he plays even alright in coverage, he’ll have established himself as one of the best young linebackers in the league.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign TE Dallas Clark

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012

After trading Kellen Winslow for a 7th round pick to the Seahawks, the Buccaneers signed Dallas Clark to play the role they thought Kellen Winslow was too expensive to play. They will be using Clark as solely a pass catcher behind new starter Luke Stocker, a 2011 4th round pick. However, they will be paying Clark 2.7 million this season. Winslow would have only made 3.3 million. Is Kellen Winslow only .6 million dollars better than Dallas Clark? Apparently the Buccaneers think so.

Winslow is one of the toughest players in the league, hasn’t missed a game in 3 years, and has been one of the league’s most productive tight ends over that time period. Clark looked done last season and couldn’t find a taker until mid-May. I don’t get this sequence of moves at all by the Buccaneers’ new regime.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade Kellen Winslow to Seattle Seahawks

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012

Trade for Tampa Bay: Winslow was still a productive player for the Buccaneers as a pass catcher last year, catching 75 passes for 763 yards and 2 touchdowns, despite poor quarterback play. He led the team in catches and was 2nd in receptions. He has bad knees, but he’s still only 28, 29 in July, and he is so tough that he hasn’t missed a game in the last 3 years. He has played through the pain and done it well, with 77, 66, and 75 catches in his last 3 years.

He’s not much of a blocker, however, and the new regime wants to run the ball more. They like 2011 4th round pick Luke Stocker a lot and see him as an every down tight end who is a much better blocker. They really only wanted to use Winslow in limited snaps as a pure pass catcher only and his salary cost them too much to do that so they signed Dallas Clark to play in that very specialized role. Given that, this move makes some sense, but they still sold him way too cheap after announces to the whole league he was available. He was worth way more than a 7th rounder.

Grade: C

Trade for Seattle: Seattle is buying low on Winslow and filling a need at the same time. Zach Miller was a major disappointment in the first year of his deal last year. Winslow is insurance in case that continues and will allow the Seahawks to use more 2-tight end sets, a smart idea given all of the questions they have at receiver. Winslow should still be a productive player for them at 3.3 million and will prove to be well worth a mere 7th round pick.

Grade: A

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