2012 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the Steelers). I think he’s a better quarterback than Byron Leftwich. He’s also a better fit for Todd Haley’s quick throw, timing based offense.

He certainly should have come into the game when Byron Leftwich got hurt. Leftwich’s injury made him even more limited as a quarterback and as a result they lost. Batch probably would have been able to convert that 7-0 lead into a victory given how their defense was playing. Either way, the Steelers are definitely in better hands with Charlie Batch under center this week.

Even with Leftwich playing hurt, the Steelers almost knocked off the Ravens, only losing by 3. They outgained them by over 100 yards, but lost the turnover battle 2-0 and allowed a special teams touchdown. Even with the mere 3 point loss, the Steelers improved to 10-4 ATS without Ben Roethlisberger since he took over as the starter in week 3 of 2004.

This week, the Steelers get another familiar foe, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are in a really bad spot this week after coming so close, but losing to the Cowboys in overtime last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. They’ll be exhausted this week for a still tough Steeler team. Since the divisions realigned in 2002, the Browns have won 2 games against the Steelers (out of 21) and have only once been favored or dogs of 1 (they didn’t cover).

Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers should be able to improve to 20-2 against the Browns as the Browns aren’t a noticeably improved team this year as opposed to the past decade and the Steelers always still play tough without Roethlisberger. Besides, Brandon Weeden will probably be a sitting duck this week against Dick LeBeau’s complex defensive scheme. Dick LeBeau is 17-1 all time against rookie starting quarterbacks, including a blowout victory this season over Robert Griffin III. Weeden is no RGIII.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Steelers is because this is a sandwich game for them. Teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs and before being dogs since 2008. The Steelers lost against Baltimore last week, now are favorites, and then go to Baltimore next week. When all 3 games are divisional, teams are 0-3 ATS in that time period (it doesn’t happen very often) and if we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, the trend is 13-22 ATS.

The logic behind that is that the Steelers have just played a tough game, lost, and now have another tough game next week. They might overlook the lowly Browns and see this as an easy win to get themselves back on the right track before a tough game and get caught off guard. That being said, they are only 1 point favorites and it’s unlikely they overlook the Browns given that they are still playing without their starting quarterback. Besides, Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss, including 5-3 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs, since taking over in 2007. It’s 3 units on the Steelers and it would have been 4 or 5 if they were dogs and they weren’t publicly backed (as I’ve mentioned, the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and are due for a big week).

Public lean: Pittsburgh (70% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 6 CLE 5

Final update: No change.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints

San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith got hurt, he was also impressive going 11 of 17 for 117 yards, leading the 49ers back from down to tie the game. He’s apparently done enough to impress Jim Harbaugh as it appears he has “Wally Pipped” Smith and will be the starter from here on out.

With Kaepernick in, the 49ers have become a lot of people’s Super Bowl favorite. Alex Smith did a decent job, but there was always a feeling that he was a limiting factor on a team that was loaded with talent elsewhere. I don’t disagree. Smith was the limiting factor on this team. They have the defense, the running game, the offensive line. They rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential.

Kaepernick makes the run even more dangerous because teams have to respect the deep ball now and because they also have to respect Kaepernick’s own running ability. They have an incredibly complex playbook, but Kaepernick allows them to use more of it with his athletic gifts and it didn’t appear he had any issues with the mental part of it either, which was formerly Alex Smith’s biggest advantage.

I’m just not 100% sold on Kaepernick yet. He’s yet to face a team that’s known he was coming. The Rams probably didn’t do a whole lot of preparing for Kaepernick before their game against the 49ers because they didn’t know Smith would get hurt. The Bears might have done more preparation, but remember, Alex Smith wasn’t ruled out until Monday. There was actually a general sense that Smith would start until he was ruled out. The odds makers even posted a line on Saturday Night assuming Smith would start and then had to lower it Monday when they found out Kaepernick was going to start.

The Saints, this week, know he’s coming. Jim Harbaugh did his best to keep it a secret that Kaepernick was his guy, but in this 24/7 news cycle world, that’s almost impossible. The Saints have been preparing for a Kaepernick-lead team all or most of the week and now have a game and a half of NFL game tape of him. They won’t take him lightly, which the Bears and Rams might have, after seeing what he did to a tough Bears defense. This is also Kaepernick’s first road game and playing in New Orleans is no picnic, even if they’ve had better years.

Finally, I just don’t like to overreact to one game too much. The 49ers were 6th in my Power Rankings a week ago, which seemed very reasonable, making them a fringe contender. Kaepernick was great, but it was just one game. I’m not ready to make them a Super Bowl favorite after 1 week, though I acknowledge they could potentially be very dangerous and the first team I’m really, really sold on if Kaepernick keeps it up and continues to play at a high level.

Even though I don’t like to overreact to one game and I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, I still like the 49ers this week and there are 4 reasons why what I mentioned early doesn’t really matter. First, the Saints’ defense is atrocious. Kaepernick might not be as good as he looked on Monday Night, but that probably wouldn’t even matter. No team allows more yards per play than they do and only the Titans allow a higher rate of sustaining drives (what percentage of sets of downs you convert for another 1st or a score).

Because of this, we’re getting good line value with the 49ers, which is the 2nd reason I like the 49ers. The yards per play differential method of computing real line gives us a real line of San Francisco -8.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of San Francisco -6. This line is at just -1, which is actually down from -2.5, where it was a week ago. As good as the 49ers looked on Monday Night, this line has still shifted in favor of New Orleans in the past week, because they blew out crappy Oakland.

Even with the line movement, the public is still on New Orleans, which is the third reason I like the 49ers. The odds makers have had a rough 3 weeks and are due for a big week. Betting on a publicly backed team this week is risky this week, especially a publicly backed dog. Public dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run.

The 49ers may be a bit overrated based off of one game of Kaepernick right now, but the Saints are incredibly overrated and overvalued by the public. The Saints are very, very good in the red zone converting for a touchdown 71% of the time, best in the league and even defensively they aren’t terrible in the red zone (53%, 17th in the league), so that takes away some of the line value, since neither method really puts much emphasis on red zone efficiency. However, it’s not like the 49ers are a bad red zone team, converting 59% of the time, 9th in the league, and allowing their opponents to convert 53% of the time, 16th in the league. We are major getting line value with the 49ers any way you look at it.

The 4th reason is that they’re in a very strong spot coming off a Monday Night Football blowout. Excluding teams coming off a bye, teams are 27-11 ATS since 2002 after a Monday Night Football win by 21 more and the 49ers won by 25. I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, but the 49ers have serious line value on their side, a powerful trend on their side, and they are a favorite not backed by the public. I would have taken them even if it were Smith starting this one, though maybe for fewer units. Still, for that reason, I’m going to take them for a significant play even in New Orleans, where Drew Brees is 5-1 ATS as a dog.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

Sharps lean: NO 10 SF 3

Final update: Sharps do like New Orleans, but I disagree. That 27-11 ATS trend is pretty powerful and the Saints are overrated right now.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -1 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Colts

Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland, 3.5 point road dogs against the Titans, home dogs for Miami, 3.5 road favorites for Jacksonville, and then as a 6-3 team they were 9 point dogs in New England last week.

They’ve had some games in there where they didn’t cover, but given how well they’ve played, those lines look pretty ridiculous and not just in hindsight. The only time in there I didn’t bet on them was as 3.5 point road favorites in Jacksonville (what seemed like a reasonable line) and they have covered 6 out of 9 lines, including 4 straight (all wins) before running into red hot New England last week.

This week, they continue to be underrated as they are just 3 point home favorites for the Bills, which suggests that these two teams are equal (3 points for home field advantage). I just don’t think that’s true. Yes, they were blown out last week, but before that they were a hot young team and the blowout loss could be a good sign for them this year. Teams are 37-19 ATS since 2002 off a loss of 35 or more as dogs. Those teams tend to be angry, overlooked, and undervalued.

There really hasn’t been much of a line movement despite that huge loss, for some reason, as it’s gone from -4 to -3 (though 3 is a very, very key number), but they’re still undervalued. The fact remains that they were undervalued a week ago as well. It’s ridiculous that this line was -4 a week ago. As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Colts. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -2.5. When you average those out, you get a line significantly higher than this -3.

That being said, it’s not going to be a big play on Indianapolis because they’re actually in a really bad spot, blowout loss last week aside. Since 2008, teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs before being dogs, the so called sandwich game trend. The Colts obviously lost as dogs last week and now they’re favorites before going to Detroit, where they will be dogs, next week. For what it’s worth, teams coming off a blowout loss of 35 or more are 1-2 ATS in that time period, 10-15 ATS off a loss by 21 or more.

Meanwhile, the Bills are dogs before being favorites as they host the Jaguars next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 years. When you combine that trend and the sandwich game trend, you get that teams are 111-56 ATS as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs since 2008, including 34-13 ATS when all 3 games (the current game, your next game, and your opponent’s next game) all are non-divisional. The Bills are also rested off a Thursday game. Teams are 116-96 ATS on a Sunday coming off a Thursday game.

This game simply means different things to these two teams. For the Bills, this is a potential statement game with no distractions on the horizon. For the Colts, this is a chance to get an “easy” win to get things right before facing a tough opponent again next week. The fact that the Colts are coming off a blowout loss might make it less likely they overlook these Bills (not to mention all the ChuckStrong stuff) and they are definitely undervalued by this line, but it’s only a play small on the Colts, especially with the public all over them. The odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and seem due for a big week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (70% range)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 IND 7

Final update: No change.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 2 units

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs

Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS as divisional home dogs after being non-divisional home dogs. When you go back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, that trend is just 28-27 ATS.

Meanwhile, fading touchdown road dogs is generally a good idea, which makes sense. It’s really hard, no matter who you are, of winning by a touchdown or more on the road. Touchdown plus road favorites are 80-99 ATS since 2002, but only 31-33 ATS in the division. You’d think it would be stronger in the division because it’s tough to go into a divisional opponent and blow them out because they know you so well, making up for some of the talent gap, but that’s not the case. In fact, since 1989, double digit road favorites in the division are 25-27 ATS.

We are getting some line value with the Chiefs. The yards per play differential method (which the Broncos lead) gives us a real line of Denver -12.5, but the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Denver -4, which averages out to be noticeably less than the -10.5 this line really is. At the same time, this line has made a major shift in the last week as it was at -7 a week ago and still the public is pounding the Broncos, noteworthy because the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and need to make money back, which they always do eventually. Bad teams in a divisional matchup always seem to do well in the 2nd half of the season anyway as dogs with 1 win or fewer are 64-35 ATS as divisional dogs after week 9 since 1989.

That being said, I can’t take the Chiefs here. The Broncos have all the momentum, which eats away at the Chiefs’ line value, maybe entirely and the Chiefs have decided to go back to Brady Quinn at quarterback, who is absolutely horrible, worse than Matt Cassel’s. Cassel’s issue was turnovers, but when he avoids them, he’s serviceable. Quinn rarely turns the ball over and has still never been serviceable. In his career, he completes 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA and 10 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. I hate laying this many points on the road, but the Broncos should be the right side. The Broncos are also my survivor pick, as much as I hate taking road teams in survivor. I would be stunned if the Broncos lost this one and for some reason I still haven’t used them.

Public lean: Denver (80% range)

Sharps lean: KC 5 DEN 1

Final update: This is tied for the least picked game of the week in LV Hilton. That’s no surprise. No one wants to lay double digits on the road, but no one wants to take the Chiefs either. I feel the same way.

Denver Broncos 31 Kansas City Chiefs 9 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL)

Pick against spread: Denver -10.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: Week 12 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6)

As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional matchups and 44-15 ATS overall, so it’s not like it’s not a huge factor in this game.

Whenever, I use that trend, I always check to make sure the team does deserve to be road favorites. Betting road favorites off a bye is great, but if you’re betting on a team that doesn’t deserve to be road favorites, it’s not so good. In order to do this, I use the two methods of computing line value. The rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Seattle -2 and the yards per play differential method says this line should be Seattle -1.5. We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins +3, especially considering this line shifted 3 whole points in the past week just because Miami lost as dogs by 5 in Buffalo, but we do have confirmation that the Seahawks are deserving road favorites, so that powerful trend can be used, at least in usual cases.

However, this is not a usual case. Because these are the Seahawks, there is one other layer we have to look at. The Seahawks suck on the road. No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past several years than the Seahawks, who are 32-14 ATS at home and 16-30 ATS on the road since 2007. In past picks, I’ve even mentioned that because the Seattle outscore opponents by an average of 4 points per game at home and get outscored by 8 points per game on the road, lines in their games should use 6 points for home field advantage, rather than 3, which would no longer make the Seahawks deserve road favorites.

On top of that, the Dolphins are rested as well, coming off a Thursday Night game. Teams are 116-96 ATS off a Thursday Night game on a Sunday since 1989. This game is also a 1 PM start on the East Coast, normally a bad situation for West Coast teams. The Seahawks are an especially bad 4-15 ATS on the East Coast at 1 PM. Since 2007, they aren’t awful as road favorites, going 4-5 ATS, but if you go back to just 2005, that becomes 6-11 ATS.

The last time they were road favorites off a bye, they failed to cover and in the division too, one of the three ATS losses in that situation since 2002. Further damning the Seahawks, they are even worse on the road off a bye, 2-6 ATS since 2002, and not off another road game, 11-22 ATS. The Dolphins are in a bad spot too though as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional home dogs, a situation teams are 11-22 ATS in since 2002. They could be caught looking forward to New England next week.

Overall, there’s a ton going on here. The Seahawks are deserving road favorites off a bye by traditional methods, but they’re a terrible road team, especially at 1 PM ET on the East Coast and the Dolphins are pretty rested as well and have a little bit of line value even before you factor in the Seahawks road troubles. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also in a bad spot and could be caught looking forward to New England next week, though if the 4-6 Dolphins have any playoff ambitions, they pretty much need to win here, so maybe they won’t overlook them.

The public is also heavy on Seattle and because the odds makers need to make money back off a rough 3 week stretch, I’m going to make that the tiebreaker and take Miami, but it would be a zero unit pick if I did them and low in confidence pools. I wish we were getting 3.5 though. This one feels like it will be a push. Actually, if there were some way I could get 5:1 odds this game would be decided by exactly 3 points, I’d probably take that.

Public lean: Seattle (80% range)

Sharps lean: SEA 8 MIA 6

Final update: No change.

Seattle Seahawks 19 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-110) 1 unit

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 12 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves to be favorites, but here the Titans do. Using the yards per play differential method computing of line value, the Titans should be 1.5 point favorites and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method says the Titans should be 1 point favorites. We’re getting a bit of line value with the Jaguars, but not enough to combat that trend.

The Titans aren’t a very good team at 4-6, with a -91 points differential. Only Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City have a points differential worse than them. However, even sub .500 teams are 9-4 ATS as road favorites since 2002. And the Jaguars are so bad that the Titans do deserve to be road favorites. They are -1.1 in yards per play differential. No one else is worse than -0.9. They are -15.2% in rate of sustaining drives differential. No one else is worse than -9.5%. The Titans are the -9.5% team, and they are coming off a fluky win (teams that score 28 or more points as dogs despite 300 or fewer yards go 43-64 ATS in their next game) but they still deserve to be road favorites. The Jaguars don’t deserve to be favorites against anyone.

Chad Henne is now the Jaguars’ starting quarterback. He looked great against Houston, certainly better Blaine Gabbert ever was, going 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s notorious for being inconsistent. This is still the same quarterback that got benched for Matt Moore in Miami and who completed 9 of 20 for 71 yards against Oakland’s terrible secondary, blowing a big lead, a few weeks ago. I’m not worried too much about him as an “X-factor” or anything like that.

The Jaguars are also in a terrible spot coming off that near win against the Texans last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. It’s going to be very, very tough for this crappy 1-9 team to get up after losing the biggest game of their season against a huge division rival and the best team in the NFL record wise. Furthermore, teams are 5-15 ATS since 2002 off a divisional overtime loss as dogs.

The Titans should be able to win this one pretty easily so it’s a significant play on the road favorite. That 22-3 ATS trend is hard to ignore, especially in conjunction with an 18-46 ATS trend and a 5-15 ATS trend. I also really like that this isn’t a huge public lean on Tennessee because the odds makers do need to make back some money after a rough 3 week stretch. I just wish we had field goal protection.

Public lean: Tennessee (60% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 20 JAX 4

Final update: This is the biggest sharps lean of the week and I’m glad it’s on one of my 4-unit co-picks of the week. The LV Hilton spread is Tennessee -3 and if I had that, I’d put 5 units on it and make it a true pick of the week, but I have it at -3.5, so it’s 4.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: Week 12 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4)

What’s wrong with the Giants? That’s what everyone is asking. Well, they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the last 8 games of the season, including these last 2 losses. Eli Manning has been the main problem of late and not just in the 2 losses. Dating back to their two close wins over Washington and Dallas, Manning is 80 of 139 for 869 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games.

Manning reportedly had a case of tired arm, which does explain why he’s struggled by his standards, but tired arm isn’t some rare thing. It’s something guys often have to deal with over the course of the season. The Giants have had a bye, but I can’t say for sure that Manning will completely turn things around and the same for the Giants as a whole, given the Giants’ history in the 2nd half in the Coughlin/Manning era.

I’ve mentioned the huge disparity in records, but Eli’s play generally drops off in the 2nd half. In the 1st half of the season, he completes 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions. In the 2nd half, he completes 57.2% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 86 touchdowns, and 79 interceptions. I don’t think the bye is going to solve their problems. They especially struggle as home favorites after week 8, going 10-20 ATS since 2004.

The Packers, meanwhile, are incredibly banged up. They’re missing 3 of their starting linebackers, Nick Perry, Desmond Bishop, and Clay Matthews. Matthews is the most important injury because he’s their only consistent pass rusher. DJ Smith, who was filling in for Bishop in the middle, is also hurt. Stud starting safety Charles Woodson is also out, as is #1 receiver Greg Jennings and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

In spite of all this, they are on a 5 game winning streak. I do think they’re a little overrated. They rank just 8th in rate of sustaining drives differential and 15th in yards per play differential, but the Giants are a little overrated too and the Packers thrive in this situation, as dogs. Aaron Rodgers is 11-5 ATS in his career getting points, which makes sense. Besides, they are dogs before being favorites as they host the Vikings next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The line is exactly where it should be. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value says this line should be Giants -3.5, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Giants -1.5, which averages out exactly where the line is, -2.5. However, the Packers have the momentum and the Giants don’t. They always struggle in the 2nd half of the season and I love getting Rodgers as a dog. It’s a significant play on the Packers. It would be 4 units if the public wasn’t pounding Green Bay as a public dog.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: GB 12 NYG 11

Final update: No change.

Green Bay Packers 31 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Green Bay +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems to be the public sentiment this week as the public is pounding Baltimore as small road favorites, but I’ll tell you why San Diego is a smart bet this week.

The first reason is pretty simple and it’s just that the public loves Baltimore. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it’s smart to bet against public leans, especially heavy public leans. If you were to do that over the course of a season, you’d probably win money every year (the only way you wouldn’t would be the juice).This week, I think, it’s especially smart to do so because the odds makers haven’t had a good 3 weeks. They should be due for a big week.

It goes deeper than that too. This is right around the point every season when the Chargers start playing incredibly well. In his career, Philip Rivers is 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they’re still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover last week in Denver. As underdogs, as they are here, Rivers is 12-4 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-0 ATS as home dogs. It’s rare that the Chargers have been home dogs in the Philip Rivers era, this is only the 5th time, but they are 3-1 ATS in the first 4 instances, including a late season (week 15) blowout win over these Ravens last year (34-14). More on that game later. The Chargers are also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites (they host Cincinnati next week). Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. As good as they are at home (16 straight wins), they generally struggle as road favorites, going 1-5 ATS as non-divisional home favorites in the last 2 seasons. Last year, they lost to 4 non-playoff teams on the road, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, and these Chargers, in a game that was situation wise very similar to this one. I put a big play on the 6-7 Chargers against the 10-3 Ravens last year and I’m going to do it again this year. This year, they barely beat the lowly Chiefs in Kansas City. They also generally struggle on the West Coast (2-10 ATS in franchise history).

Besides, if you think about it, what’s their motivation here? They have a 2 game lead on the division after their win over Pittsburgh last week and next week they play the Steelers again. If they beat the Steelers next week, they’ll have at least a 2 game lead on the division and the tiebreaker even if they lose this game. This game means nothing. Teams, for whatever reason, tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, going a ridiculous 18-40 ATS since 2002 (no other team has a trend like that). The Ravens are 3-6 ATS after beating them in that time period. They probably won’t get up for this game and will underachieve against a Chargers team that always gets hot at this time and who beat them in this exact situation last year.

The Ravens are overrated anyway. They’re only +61 in points differential and most of that came from two wins against Cincinnati and crappy Oakland. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they haven’t had a particularly tough schedule. They could have easily lost to Pittsburgh last week if Charlie Batch had stepped in for Leftwich when he got clearly hurt. They are just 9th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

They allow more yards per game than they gain. Against Pittsburgh, they were outgained by over 100 yards and even against Oakland, a huge win, they got outgained. They’re doing really well with turnovers. Only New England (+20) has a better turnover differential than their +12, but that’s not sustainable and their wins have been close enough that it’s definitely something to worry about. They’re also only 4-6 ATS against the spread.

As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Chargers. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be San Diego -3 and using the yards per play differential method, this should be a pick em. Neither one says that the Ravens should be road favorites here and I agree, trends aside. With trends factored in, the Chargers seem like the clear choice, especially with the public heavy on Baltimore in a week where the odds makers need to make their money back. We might even see another 34-14 type game.

It’s a big play on the Chargers. I’m not worried at all that they’ve quit on Norv Turner. As bad of a Head Coach as he is, they have never fully quit on him and just given up on a season. Philip Rivers is a huge supporter of his Head Coach and this bunch will play hard to save his job, like they always do late in the season. They’re not getting run out of the building. The last game they played where they didn’t keep it even close was week 3. They’re still playing hard.

Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Baltimore (80% range)

Sharps lean: SD 14 BAL 4

Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lines up with one of my picks of the week, a very good sign.

San Diego Chargers 27 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule out them losing out. The Lions at 4-6 are the favorite this year and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this year (only happened once in the last decade).  However, looking at the Bengals’ remaining schedule, they’re only definitely going to be favored in one more game, this one at home for Oakland. At Philadelphia and home for Dallas are other options, but if they lost this week, they could conceivably, but improbably, lose out.

Will they lose at home this week to the Raiders? I won’t say it’s impossible. Teams are 36-16 ATS off back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, and the Raiders have lost 55-20 and 38-17 in their last two games. Teams tend to be embarrassed, playing for pride, undervalued, and overlooked by their opponent in this spot. That trend is actually a perfect 4-0 ATS and SU this year and has led to such upsets as Tennessee over Detroit, Tennessee over Pittsburgh, Buffalo over Arizona, and last week’s NY Jets over St. Louis. This line has shifted 2.5 points in the last week (from -5.5 to -8), so the Raiders are definitely undervalued. In spite of this, the public is still on the Bengals, important since the odds makers desperately need to make money back after a bad 3 week stretch, though it’s not a huge lean.

The Raiders are also dogs before being favorites. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. They host the crappy Browns next week, so they’ll be completely focused for the Bengals this week in a pride game. I can’t say the Bengals will be completely focused for them, however. The Raiders certainly don’t scare anyone right now and the Bengals have to go to San Diego next week, where they will almost definitely be underdogs. Teams are 111-56 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will be dogs the following week, including 34-13 ATS when all three games (the current game, their next game, and their opponent’s next game) are all non-divisional. This game simply means different things to these two teams.

Besides, the Bengals tend to disappoint as favorites. Since 2007, they are 6-14 ATS as home favorites. Even in the last two years, when young Andy Dalton has had a ton of success against non-playoff teams (9-0 last year against non-playoff teams, 4-2 this year against teams currently outside of the playoffs), they are just 2-4 ATS as home favorites. In total in the Marvin Lewis era (going back to 2003), they are 14-25 ATS as home favorites, including just 3-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

We’re also getting some line value with the Bengals. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says this line should be Cincinnati -5.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Cincinnati -7, both of which are lower than this -8 line. 8 points seems like too many points even if the Raiders didn’t have a significant trends advantage.

The Raiders should cover this spread and there’s a decent chance they could even win this game. This would be a bigger play on the Raiders if it wasn’t for 3 things. First, the Raiders have burned me twice in the last 2 weeks, though I never really let this scare me off, any team can cover at any time and the Raiders are undervalued and possibly very embarrassed. I say possibly because there’s a chance they may have quit on their Head Coach, which is the 2nd reason, but they have a 1st year Head Coach so it’s unlikely they’ve already quit. Third, and most significantly, the Raiders have to travel as a West Coast team to the Eastern time zone for a 1 PM start. Teams tend to struggle in this spot. The Raiders are just 7-14 ATS in this situation since 2002. It’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: OAK 9 CIN 2

Final update: All 3 of my co-picks of the week line up with heavy sharps lean. I always have my best weeks when that happens.

Oakland Raiders 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +330

Pick against spread: Oakland +8 (-110) 4 units

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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Texans

Houston Texans (9-1) at Detroit Lions (5-5)

Every year the Lions have a Thanksgiving home game and every year they struggle. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 Thanksgiving home games. Even last year when they were good and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they didn’t play well on Thanksgiving, losing 27-15 against the Green Bay Packers. Most of these losses haven’t even been close: 20-12 in 2002, 41-9 in 2004 (2003 was the year they won), 27-7 in 2005, 27-10 in 2006, 37-26 in 2007, 47-10 in 2008, 34-12 in 2009, 45-24 in 2010, and then of course the game last year.

However, this year they are in a good spot on Thanksgiving. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 15-4 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites (the Lions host the Colts next week), though when you go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 21-15 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. Still, it’s a good spot for the Lions.

We’re also getting some line value with the Lions. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of calculating line value (which Houston leads the league in), says this line should be Houston -4.5, but the yards per play differential method says that Detroit should actually be favored by 2.5 points. Average those out and you get that this line should be around Houston -1. This line was closer to that earlier this week, but heavy action on the Texans has driven it all the way up to Houston -3.5. Given that the odds makers have lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks and they’re bound to make it up, it’s not a smart idea to take heavy public leans this week, though I guess it’s good to see the line moving in the correct direction. There’s no opposite line movement here.

The Texans are in a good spot too though. Teams are 10-3 ATS off an overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. It seems that almost suffering a major upset has the same impact as actually suffering a major upset (teams do really well after suffering a major upset as well). It’s a big wakeup call and I expect the Texans to be 100% this week. Remember the Patriots after their overtime win against the Jets (45-7) and even the 49ers last week after their tie with the Rams? The Texans are that caliber of a team. The Lions, meanwhile, are just 7-12 ATS since 2001 after playing the Packers, which is something that could have an impact on this game.

There’s a lot of conflicting stuff going on in this one and it would be a zero unit pick if I did them, but gun to my head, I’d take Houston in this one, though it’d be low in any confidence pools. The reason is that, almost every year one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Detroit is at 4-6 right now, while the rest of last year’s playoff teams are all 5-5 or better.

I’m probably going to bet against all 3 of last year’s playoff teams with 5 wins or fewer this week, especially Detroit because they look like the favorite to do so (their remaining schedule is brutal: vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, @ Arizona, vs. Atlanta, and vs. Chicago). With a 3.5 point spread, it’s conceivable the Lions could cover and not win (about 25% of the time when 3.5 point dogs lose, they still cover), which is why I would have preferred this line at -2, where it was earlier this week, but I don’t think Detroit wins this one, especially considering their history on Thanksgiving. It’s a very small play on Houston. I also like the under as the under is 72-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Houston Texans 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 50.5 (-110) 1 unit

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