2012 NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

Almost every year, we have one team go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Right now, every playoff team from last year has at least 4 wins. That means one of two things. We’re not going to have a team like that this year (only happened 1 other time in the last decade) or either Detroit, New Orleans, or Cincinnati is about to go 1-6 in their next 7 games.

I’m sticking with the latter for now and I think the Bengals are going to be that team. The Bengals still do not impress me, ranking just 20th in rate of sustaining drives differential, with an even yards per play differential. They’ll probably only be favored in 2 of their remaining 7 games, so it’s possible. That would mean that the Bengals will have to get upset by either the Chiefs or the Raiders in the next 2 weeks.

Can they lose here to the Chiefs? As weird as it may sound, they can. Neither of these teams is really in a good spot. The Bengals beat the Giants as home dogs last week, which opens up 3 trends. One, road teams are 7-15 ATS off a win over the defending champs since 2002. Two, away favorites are 74-97 ATS after being home dogs since 1989. Three, teams are 55-71 ATS off of a win as home dogs since 2008. Meanwhile, road favorites off of 3+ straight home games are 23-41 ATS since 1989.

For the Chiefs, home dogs before being home dogs are 29-42 ATS since 2008. They host the Broncos next week. Home dogs are 6-16 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points) as double digit road dogs. Meanwhile, excluding road dogs, teams are 18-45 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-13 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. However, teams are just 5-5 ATS off a Monday Night game in this spot since 1989. That trend is much more relevant with a team coming off a Sunday game.

Neither team is in a good spot, but we are getting line value with the Chiefs. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Kansas City -2.5 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Cincinnati -3, both of which are less than this line of Cincinnati -3.5. The Chiefs, as bad as they’ve been this year, can be competitive if they can avoid losing the turnover battle like they did last week. If they can do that again this week, they can definitely win and turnovers are inconsistent enough for that to happen. On top of all that, the public is pounding Cincinnati and the public always loses in the long run.

The Bengals aren’t good enough to be road dogs really anywhere as the calculations of real line show. Besides, since 2007, the Bengals are just 10-22 ATS as favorites. Since Marvin Lewis took over in 2003, the Bengals are just 11-24 ATS as favorites of more than 3. The Chiefs are in one good spot as a 1-win team off a loss as dogs by a touchdown or less. Teams are 65-43 ATS in that spot since 2002. I think the Chiefs have a chance to win here (and keep open the possibility that the Bengals go 5-11) and I like the money line of +165. I also don’t trust the Bengals in this spot and as favorites, especially as road favorites, so it’s a small play on the spread.

Public lean: Cincinnati (80% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 12 KC 3

Final update: No change.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Raiders, Saints

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last in both of those metrics. The Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t much better, but they rank 24th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They rank better in both of those statistics than the Saints and somehow they’re still home dogs.

Using those statistics to compute real line, we get that Oakland should be 3.5 point favorites using the yards per play differential method and 4.5 points favorites using the rate of sustaining drives differential method. Instead, Oakland is +5.5. That’s 9 or 10 points of line value, which is an absolutely ridiculous amount to get at this point in the season.

Besides, New Orleans has never been good on the road as favorites outside of their division, even when they were good. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 3-7 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. In his last 13 games as road favorites of 4 or more, Brees is just 4-9 ATS. Their struggles outside of their dome are well documented. Since the start of the 2008 season, Brees completes 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA and 119 touchdowns to 43 interceptions indoors, as opposed to 66.5% completion, 7.5 YPA, and 53 touchdowns to 30 interceptions outside.

Speaking of New Orleans being road favorites, teams are 75-97 ATS as road favorites after being home dogs since 1989. The Saints were home dogs against the Falcons last week. Meanwhile, teams are 68-104 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs since 1989. The Saints go home and will be dogs against San Francisco next week. Furthermore, teams are 12-28 ATS as non-conference favorites off a divisional upset win before being dogs. Teams are 16-5 ATS after ending a perfect season during week 9 or later, but I still think overall the Saints are in a bad spot this week, in addition to being overrated and a poor team on the road, outside of the division, and outside of their dome.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a great spot. It may not seem like it after their 35 point loss in Baltimore last week, but that’s exactly why they’re in a good spot. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams coming off a blowout like that tend to be overlooked, undervalued, embarrassed and playing for respect.

I think they’ll definitely be the latter of those 2 things. That speaks for itself. I think the Saints will also overlook this lowly non-conference opponent sandwiched in between games against Atlanta and San Francisco, two of the premier teams in their conference (after that they go to Atlanta and the Giants and then host Tampa Bay). Road favorites are 20-39 ATS before being dogs in 3 straight. I also think the Raiders are undervalued as this line has moved from -3 to -5.5 in the last week, giving us even more line value.

The only thing I’m worried about other than that 16-5 trend that I mentioned earlier is that the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year, but the Raiders don’t have to win to cover here. Plus, on top of all the things I’ve already mentioned, the public is pounding the Saints. The public always loses money in the long run. I like them to cover the 5.5 for a big play.

Public lean: New Orleans (90% range)

Sharps lean: NO 14 OAK 10

Final update: No change.

Oakland Raiders 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Oakland Raiders +5.5 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)

The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against the Titans in Tennessee to being -3 in Jacksonville and +7 at home for Green Bay. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, including 5-1 since Chuck Pagano left the team for treatment. They’ve won 4 straight and their only loss since Pagano’s announcement was in New York against the Jets, when they were understandably flat right after their first emotional ChuckStrong victory.

They are once again underrated this week as 9 point dogs in New England. For reference, the Bills were -12 in New England last week and covered. That says Colts are just 3 points better than the Bills at most because the Patriots didn’t even cover last week. Huh? Using the yards per play differential method, the Patriots should just be 3 point favorites and even using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, the Patriots should just be 8 point favorites, even though the Patriots rank 2nd in that statistic.

The Colts shouldn’t be getting this many points against anyone, even though the Patriots do have Aqib Talib making his debut this week. The Colts also return Robert Mathis from injury this week. Mathis, their top pass rusher, has been pretty much out since week 4 (he played very sparingly week 9). They’ve been playing really well ever since they returned several starters defensively (Cory Redding, Dwight Freeney, Pat Angerer). Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers are out, but their defense is still healthier than it’s been in recent weeks and Darius Butler’s strong performance at cornerback is helping cancel out the loss of Davis and Powers.

Besides, the Patriots tend to struggle when laying this many points at home. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is pretty incredible considering they’ve been a covering machine in general in the past 2 ½ years. In all other situations, they are a whopping 21-8 ATS. They’ve already failed to cover in all 3 of these instances this season, barely beating the Jets and Bills and losing to the Cardinals, 3 teams that are all significantly worse than the Colts. This game reminds me a lot of when the Giants came to New England as 9 point dogs week 9 last year and won.

The Colts are also in a trio of good spots. First, they’re well rested coming off a Thursday Night Game. On Sunday, teams are 115-95 ATS off a Thursday Night game. Second, they’re dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-11 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. Next week, they host the lowly Bills. Third, the Patriots play the Jets on Thanksgiving next Thursday. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites (which the Patriots will be).

The Colts should be able to keep this one close and even if they don’t, there’s some backdoor potential with the Colts because of how bad the Patriots’ pass defense is, even with Talib. If the Colts are down 10-14 driving for a backdoor cover late this week, I’d rather have them than the Patriots, especially as bad as the Patriots’ pass defense is in the 4th quarter. I also don’t want to bet against this ChuckStrong momentum.

Sharps lean: NE 9 IND 5

Final update: No change.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

New England Patriots 31 Indianapolis Colts 27

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +9 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington (3-6)

This line has shifted 2 points since last week because of Michael Vick’s injury (-1.5 last week to -3.5 this week), which makes no sense because Michael Vick sucks. Nick Foles went 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in relief of Vick last week. He didn’t look as good as those numbers, but he was facing a solid defense and didn’t get any first team reps all season.

This week, he gets a full week of reps with the first team and to face the Redskins’ 27th ranked pass defense. He should be able to have a strong game against them, something I don’t know if Vick could have done. Vick only led the Eagles to 13 points against the Saints’ last ranked pass defense so I don’t understand this line shifting 2 points because of Vick getting hurt.

We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles now that the line has shifted. The Eagles rank 18th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Redskins rank 20th in yards per play differential and 15th in rate of sustaining drives differential. These two teams are about even. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says that Washington should be -2.5 at home (3 points for home field), while the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be -3.

This is also the exact type of game Andy Reid thrives in. He’s best when being doubted (the public is all over Washington), when he’s a road dog, when he’s coming off a losing streak, and in the latter part of the season. Since the Eagles hired him way back in 1999, he’s 8-5 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak and 4-1 ATS on a 4+ game losing streak (last week was the first time he failed to cover in this situation). I didn’t like them last week because of Vick, but now with Foles, they might actually be better off and they’re certainly going to be more undervalued and more likely to be overlooked.

Also last week, the Eagles were home dogs and Andy Reid is about .500 as home dogs in his career. However, as road dogs, he’s 37-20 ATS, including 16-8 ATS in the division. He’s also 65-42 ATS after week 10, including 22-10 ATS as road dogs after week 10. Another spot that the Eagles weren’t in last week, they’re now dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 23-11 ATS as divisional dogs before being non-divisional favorites (they host Carolina next week). Besides, Andy Reid needs this game to keep his job. If Foles impresses down the stretch, the Eagles will keep him around to develop the quarterback he drafted, his specialty.

Meanwhile, the Redskins are divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to Dallas next week. Teams are 14-47 ATS in this spot since 2002, an incredibly powerful trend. That game is also just 4 days after this one, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites. I also like that the Redskins are pretty heavily bet by the public. Not only does it mean no one believes in the Eagles (when they play best), the public always loses money in the long run. It’s a big play on Nick Foles and the Eagles.

Public lean: Washington (70% range)

Sharps lean: PHI 8 WAS 2

Final update: No change.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3.5 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at St. Louis Rams: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jets, Rams

New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I really like the Jets this week. The Jets are one of two teams I have not picked to cover once this year, along with the Bengals. Yes, their fans hate me. It may seem weird that this is the week I’m going with the Jets because they seem to be at their lowest point, given all that’s happened in the last week.

However, the Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? With the team now at 3-6, with all their locker room dirty laundry being aired to the media over the past week, coming off a two straight losses of 21 or more, the Jets are now at their lowest point.

Speaking off 2 straight losses of 21 or more, teams are 35-16 ATS since 2002 coming off back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, embarrassing, and playing for pride in that spot. The Jets are definitely embarrassed and playing for pride. They’re also undervalued and likely to be overlooked. This line has shifted from St. Louis -2 to -3.5 and the 3-5 Rams are now favorites of more than a field goal.

This is an unfamiliar situation for the Rams. How unfamiliar? Well, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. Teams are 46-67 ATS as favorites of more than 3 after being dogs in 4 straight. This is also just the 8th time they’ve been favored since the start of the 2009 season. Since 2002, they are just 24-38 ATS as favorites.

Meanwhile, since 1989, home favorites are 97-162 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight. The Rams probably won’t be in this unfamiliar situation again until at least 4 weeks from now when they host Minnesota, if at all the rest of the season. 2 of their next 3 are on the road and their only home game is against San Francisco, when they almost definitely won’t be favored. Meanwhile, they’re simply not good enough to be road favorites anywhere, even in Buffalo week 14.

All of these trends are basically saying that bad teams don’t do well as favorites. Well, this one also says that. Since 2008, teams are 57-81 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. For good teams, a game like this would represent a breather game, a chance to get an “easy” win after a loss to a tough opponent before facing another tough opponent. For bad teams, it represents a game they probably shouldn’t be favored in. Over that time period, when the game they’re favored in is non-divisional and the other two are divisional (@ San Francisco, vs. NY Jets, @ Arizona), teams are 6-11 ATS. If we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, that trend becomes 23-39 ATS.

I know the Rams didn’t actually lose in San Francisco last week, but it doesn’t seem to matter. Dogs before and after being favorites are 83-118 ATS regardless of the outcome of the first game (26-37 ATS off a win). That tie does make things a little tougher, but not that tough. Teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie and regardless of the outcome of last week’s game, the Rams would be in a bad spot this week.

I already mentioned the sandwich/breather game trend, but here are some more. Teams are 45-66 ATS off a win as double digit dogs, 23-36 ATS off a win as divisional double digit dogs. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-15 ATS since 1989. Home favorites are 10-24 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-17 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

If the Rams had won last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. If the Rams had lost last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. And having tied in overtime last week, well they’re still in a bad spot, albeit one with a really small sample size. After playing 75 minutes and taking the 49ers to the brink, the Rams are probably not going to focused for the lowly Jets this week, especially with another divisional road game next on the schedule.

The Jets are also in one more good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 80-47 ATS in this spot since 2008. Finally, the Rams are a pretty strong public lean and the public always loses in the long run. There are a few reasons why this isn’t a 5-unit co-pick of the week along with Pittsburgh. For one, the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. Two, we’re actually getting line value with the Rams as the yards per play differential method says they should be 6.5 point favorites and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says they should be 4 point favorites and that’s not taking into account that the Rams now have Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold healthy, two things that really helped against San Francisco. They’re now 5-1 ATS with Amendola this year and 0-3 ATS without him.

Three, there’s always a chance the Jets are looking forward to a Thanksgiving game with the Patriots immediately after this one, but they simply can’t afford to lose another game if they want to maintain any hope of making the playoffs and I can’t imagine them looking past the Rams having been embarrassed in their last 2 games. They’re playing for pride and always do well at their lowest point, while the Rams are in an unfamiliar spot as favorites could easily overlook this lowly non-conference opponent off a grueling game against San Francisco with another divisional matchup on schedule next. It’s a 4-unit pick.

Public lean: NY Jets (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 17 NYJ 3

Final update: Sharps do have this at -3, but that probably isn’t the reason why there’s a huge sharps lean on the Rams. I’m going to disagree with them though.

New York Jets 20 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3.5 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, as is often the case with the public on heavy leans, I think they’re going to be wrong. There is a simple answer to that question: they’ll beat them the same way they normally beat teams without Ben Roethlisberger.

Since he took over as starter full time during week 3 of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger has missed 13 games. The Steelers are 8-5 in those 13 games, a winning percentage of 62%. When he does play, they have a winning percentage of 70%. It’s a difference, but not a huge difference and that’s just at first glance. If we exclude overtime losses, the Steelers are 8-2 in games without Ben Roethlisberger as they’ve lost 3 of those 5 games in overtime. Going off that, none of those 5 losses has come by more than 6 points, including 3 losses that would have still covered this 3.5 point spread.

It’s true that they have lost 4 times to the Ravens without Ben Roethlisberger (why does he always miss these games?!), but by a combined 15 points, including 3 games decided by just a field goal. In the Joe Flacco era, both of the Ravens’ games against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers have been decided by 3 points, two final scores that would equal a Pittsburgh cover if they were to happen this week and these aren’t the same Ravens as they have been in the past (more on that later).

Overall without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. This year’s defense might not be quite the same as their defenses have been in the past. After all, they’ve had a top-3 scoring defense in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They are missing Troy Polamalu. However, that being said, they rank 7th in opponent’s scoring and 1st in opponent’s yardage, so it’s not like their defense is playing badly. In fact, they’re playing very well. Besides, in the two seasons they did not have a top-3 defense, they still covered in both instances without Ben Roethlisberger.

It’s not just defense that’s winning them these games without Roethlisberger. The whole team seems to play better. They’re a prideful bunch and never roll over easy without Roethlisberger. Mike Tomlin (under whom they are 6-2 ATS without Roethlisberger) will have them playing for pride with everyone doubting them against a Ravens team that did beat them twice last year. They’ll definitely want revenge for those losses, in addition to wanting to shut up the critics.

Given all that, it’s ridiculous that the Steelers are +3.5 here at home. A week ago, this line was -5.5. Roethlisberger is good, but he’s certainly not worth 9 points. And even if Roethlisberger hadn’t gotten hurt and this line had stayed -5.5, I would have picked the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -7 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -4.5 and if you average those, you do get slightly higher than -5.5. Obviously, those two formulas don’t do a ton of good in a game where one team is missing a Pro-Bowl quarterback, but at the same time, this line should not have moved 9 full points.

The reason Pittsburgh deserved to be around -5.5 or -6 with Roethlisberger is that the Ravens are overrated. Before last week, this team had not won a single game by 10 or more since week 1 and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, 2 weeks ago at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. Before last week, this team hadn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 27th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 17th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows. Because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well.

Even in last week’s blowout win over the Ravens, they got outgained. They rank just 8th in yards per play differential and 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now and would have deserved to be dogs of 6 or so in Pittsburgh with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers’ side. They certainly don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in Pittsburgh with the Steelers missing Roethlisberger. For reference, they were -3.5 in Cleveland two weeks ago and had trouble covering the spread. You can’t tell me the Steelers are equal to the Browns now.

Aside from that, the Steelers are in a good spot, part of why I would have taken them even had Roethlisberger not gotten hurt and had the line stayed put. Teams are 10-3 ATS after a home overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 32-24 ATS off a home win of 3 or fewer as double digit dogs. Almost losing as big favorites tends to serve as just as good of a wakeup call as actually losing. Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss and 25-18 ATS off a game in which the Steelers failed to cover. He’s also 5-3 ATS in divisional revenge games and, as I mentioned, the Ravens beat the Steelers twice last year.

In addition to all of those trends, two kick in now that Pittsburgh is a dog. Dogs before being favorites are 92-52 ATS since 2011. The Steelers go to Cleveland next week. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin is 3-1 ATS as dogs against the Ravens.  I really like the Steelers this week. At the very worst, they should be able to keep this within a field goal again so getting the 3.5 is key. I have a feeling the Steelers pull out the straight up win, however. Everyone is doubting them and they’re traditionally good even without Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, the Ravens are overrated.

Public lean: Baltimore (90% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 17 BAL 6

Final update: Glad to see that the sharps agree with my pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) 5 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6)

Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but the public is pounding the home favorite. Buffalo is not only infrequently favored, but they’re also incredibly infrequently publicly backed as favorites.

So what went wrong for the Dolphins? Well, first they lost in Indianapolis to the Colts by 3. That’s not embarrassing at all. The Colts stand at 6-3 and even hanging within a field goal of them in Indianapolis is pretty impressive. However, last week, the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans in embarrassing fashion, 37-3. That’s shifted this line from Miami being road favorites to Buffalo being favored.

However, that loss wasn’t as embarrassing as it looked. They got killed in the turnover battle 4-0, setting up Tennessee in great field position, giving them the ability to score 37 points despite just 9 completions and fewer than 300 yards of offense. That being said, this line does hold up to the test of the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential metrics. The former says this line should be Buffalo -1.5 and the latter says this line should be Buffalo -1, which is right around where this line actually is.

What last week’s fluky loss does do is put Miami in a great spot to cover this week. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams tend to be embarrassed and undervalued in this spot and the Dolphins are at least one of those things. They may also be undervalued. Teams are 21-11 ATS since 1989 coming off a game in which they allowed 32 or more points and fewer than 10 completions. This makes sense as those tend to be fluky losses. They may also be dogs before being favorites as they host Seattle (a notoriously bad road team) next week. Teams are 92-52 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons.

Buffalo is also in a bunch of bad spots, starting with the classic sandwich game spot. Teams are 57-82 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs and before being dogs. This works for one of two reasons depending on the type of team favored. For good teams, the sandwich game gives them an opportunity for an “easy” win to get on the right page after a tough loss before playing another tough team. They tend to overlook their opponents. For bad teams, well they shouldn’t be favored. Buffalo is clearly one of the latter teams.

They’re also in a bad spot after coming so close to knocking off divisional rival New England as huge dogs last week. Favorites are 22-30 ATS off a loss as divisional double digit dogs since 1989 and divisional favorites after a loss as divisional dogs are 96-112 ATS since 1989. Neither of those trends is particularly strong, but if you combine them, you get that teams are 5-12 ATS as divisional favorites off a loss as double digit divisional dogs. Meanwhile, favorites on Thursday Nights are 0-4 ATS off a divisional loss as dogs.

I like Miami for a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 413 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 413 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time. I also like the under, as usual, on Thursday Night. The under is 71-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)

Miami Dolphins 23 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Miami +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Week 10 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 Results

ATS: 7-7 +5 units/+$370

SU: 8-5-1

Upset Picks: 1-1 +20

Over/Under: 1-1 -10

Total: +$380

Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 73-68-5 +19 units/+$255

SU: 93-52-1

Upset Picks: 26-24 +$2160

Over/Under: 6-4-1 +160

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +2675

Survivor: 8-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Public Results ATS*: 70-74-2 -2 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation through 8 games, the first time a team has done that since 1929 and that team folded after the season. Actually, they were also the first team to do that through 7 games since 1929 as well. However, they aren’t the worst team in the NFL. They don’t rank dead last in either rate of sustaining drives differential or yards per play differential (that distinction belongs to Jacksonville). They rank 24th and 31st respectively in those two statistics and that’s including sometime that the inferior Brady Quinn spent at quarterback.

The reason that those two important statistics say they’re slightly better than their record is their turnover differential. Through just 8 games, they are -20 in turnovers. Even if they tied the NFL single season record of -30 (record is -28 since merger), their turnover differential would be -10 in their final 8 games, two times better than it was in their first eight games. Besides, turnover differentials tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis, as you can see here. Turnovers aside, they’re not completely horrific.

We are getting line value with them even if you don’t take into account that Brady Quinn spent some time at quarterback. Cassel is the better quarterback and, at the very least, his interception rate will go back to his career average. If you average out those two real line calculations, you get -12 and this line is -12.5. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss, coming off a loss in San Diego this week. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot. Meanwhile, as well as the Steelers are playing, they’re still not a team built to blow people out and cover a 12 point spread like this without Troy Polamlau, with whom they allow about a touchdown less per game than without over the past few years.

We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean with Kansas City. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

That being said, it’s only a one unit play. Kansas City is too horrible to put more than that on them. They seem to have a knack for being blown out and it’s not just this season. Dating back to 2010, they’ve lost 14 games by 16 or more games, out of 23 total losses. Even from 2010-2011, a stretch in which they went 17-16, they still lost 9 or more by a blowout score. That could happen again here, but I do like the dog. The Steelers are also my survivor pick.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: KC 5 PIT 1

Final update: Sharps lean is exactly what I expected. People don’t like Pittsburgh, but no one really wants to take Kansas City either.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +12.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Panthers

Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6)

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They should coast to a great record and at least the #3 seed in the AFC.

That being said, this game won’t be a walk in the park for them. The Panthers are an underrated bunch right now. Despite their record (2-6), they have only 1 loss by more than a touchdown and that was on Thursday Night Football against the Giants. I don’t put too much stock into what happens on Thursday Nights because it’s so tough to prepare to play a team on 3 days rest, so I don’t really hold that against Carolina too much, especially since that was week 3 and they’ve been competitive every week since.

Even weighting that loss to the Giants equal to the rest of their games, we are still getting line value with the Panthers. Using the yards per play differential method, we get Denver -1 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, we get Denver -5. If we average those out, we get Denver -3, which is 1.5 points lower than where this spread currently is. Also remember, while Denver has played a very tough schedule thus far, Carolina comes from by far the tougher of the two conferences. The AFC is just 13-23 against the NFC this year.

Carolina is also in a good spot as home dogs off a win as road dogs; they won as road dogs in Washington last weekend. Teams are 27-19 ATS in this spot since 2008 and if we go all the way back to 1989, that trend becomes 122-82 ATS. Meanwhile, they are probably dogs before being favorites. The early line for their game against Tampa Bay next week is Carolina -1.5, though that could change. Teams are 89-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, though that trend does shrink to 65-47 ATS since 2008 when the current game is non-divisional and their next game is divisional. Carolina could overlook non-conference Denver for Tampa Bay, I guess, but Denver is much more likely to overlook “crappy” non-conference Carolina.

Denver is also in a good spot as road favorites off a win as road favorites. Teams, in general, tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game. It’s most powerful when dealing with road dogs off a road loss, but road favorites off a win as road favorites is a trend too and Denver won as road favorites in Cincinnati last week. Teams are 48-29 ATS since 2002 in that spot. However, Denver is a massive public lean, the biggest of the week.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I think I’d be crazy to bet on Denver this week, given the circumstances, especially with some trends in Carolina’s favor. If there’s a sharps lean on this game, I might consider boosting it to a 3 unit significant play and make a play on the money line too.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 16 CAR 8

Final update: Didn’t see that coming. I’m not boosting this to 3 units, but I’m not dropping any units either. Denver is the biggest public lean of the week.

Denver Broncos 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +4.5 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]