2012 NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

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Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

This is Andy Dalton’s 22nd career start. Assuming Baltimore makes the playoffs and Washington, Jacksonville, and Cleveland don’t, that means that Dalton is 12-0 in his career against non-playoff teams and 0-9 against playoff teams, making the Bengals the definition of average. This week, he plays the Dolphins, who sit at 1-3 and who probably won’t make the playoffs, but they’re hardly a pushover.

They got blown out week 1, but that was Ryan Tannehill’s first career start and it was in Houston and Houston is probably the best team in the league. Since then, they’ve blown out Oakland and lost in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins as underdogs. By the way, they’re just the 7th team since 1989 to lose back to back overtime games (4-2 ATS in their next contest). Last year, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of about 8 wins and won 6, because of a strong defense. They have a strong defense once again this year and that has propelled them to actually rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 10th in yards per play differential, which is actually worse than Miami, despite arguably the easier schedule. It’s important to know that the Bengals are finally getting healthy. Carlos Dunlap returned 2 weeks ago to reinvigorate a pass rush that now ranks 4th in pass rush efficiency (the Dolphins do rank 3rd, by the way). Their strong pass rush has helped take some of the pressure off a banged up secondary which used Adam Jones, Terence Newman, and Chris Crocker as its top 3 cornerbacks last week.

Luckily their pass rush abused Blaine Gabbert, who did his thing and stunk up the joint against a very banged up secondary. Tannehill might not have done the same thing, so it’s good that Leon Hall, Nate Clements, and Dre Kirkpatrick are expected back this week (Jason Allen isn’t). It’s worth noting that Hall, still less than 11 months removed from Achilles surgery, did not look like his old self before missing the last 2 games with injuries to that same leg, which is hardly a good sign. Still, this 22nd ranked pass defense should see improvements in the future and this isn’t the same unit that Brandon Weeden torched week 2. They do, however, really struggle against the run, ranking dead last, so Reggie Bush should have a good game, which will make life easier for Tannehill.

Despite Cincinnati’s improving health, there is some line value here. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 0.2 and an old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points in either direction for home field advantage, so this line should be -1.5 in favor of Cincinnati. Of course, that doesn’t take into account Cincinnati’s improving injury situation, but it also doesn’t take into account their cupcake schedule. Despite some line value, the public is still pounding Cincinnati. The common perception is that Miami isn’t very good and Cincinnati should beat them easily. In spite of that, the line is dropping, and pretty significantly (down from -5.5 to -3.5 since it opened), so this has all the makings of a trap line.

Miami also has two powerful trends on their side. They’re dogs before being favorites (they host St. Louis next week). Dogs tend to be extra focused with an easy game on the horizon, going 74-44 ATS in this situation since 2011, including 19-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Miami is also in their 2nd straight as a road dog off a loss, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2008. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is just 5-13 ATS as favorites of 3+ since 2007. You might think that would have changed over the last year plus with this team playing so well against bad teams, but actually, they’re just 2-1 ATS in this situation, so it’s hard to say. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because Miami probably isn’t a playoff team and Andy Dalton never loses to those teams. However, as long as I have field goal protection, it’s a small play on Miami to cover and not win.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 7 CIN 18

Final pick: The sharps love Cincinnati this week. Miami feels like the right side, but there’s absolutely no line value here and this is the type of game Cincinnati normally wins. I’m going down to 1 unit. One injury note, Miami will be without #2 cornerback Richard Marshall and Dre Kirkpatrick will not make his debut for Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

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Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

Obviously, I can’t do this write up without talking about Chuck Pagano. You’ve probably heard the news, but if you haven’t, Pagano, an 11 year NFL assistant who got his first Head Coaching job this offseason as Head Coach of the Colts, was unfortunately diagnosed with a treatable form of leukemia  earlier this week, a few days before he celebrated his 52nd birthday on October 2nd. He has left the team in order to undergo treatment, including chemotherapy, and will hopefully make a speedy recovery. In his absence, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will be interim Head Coach. This is obviously a very unfortunately situation and one that will impact this team.

Earlier this week, I was torn on how it would impact them. They could have come out totally unprepared and get blown out or they could have come out and had the game of their lives in his honor. However, now I really am leaning towards the latter. They’re coming off a bye, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, plus the loss of Pagano as Head Coach is not as important as say losing Sean Payton. Pagano has been Head Coach of this team for 3 games and Arians calls the plays anyway. I think it’s much more likely this will have a positive effect on this team than a negative one, at least this week.

Speaking of that bye week, it couldn’t have come at a better time for the Colts. The Colts, one of my preseason underrated teams, really looked underwhelming before the bye, getting blown out by Chicago, barely beating Minnesota (although Minnesota has looked good, so maybe that is an impressive win), and then losing at home to Jacksonville in an absolutely abysmal defensive effort.

Injuries were a huge part of that, especially defensively, with cornerback Vontae Davis, rush linebacker Dwight Freeney, and middle linebacker Pat Angerer all being out before the bye. On a defense that lacked talent to begin with, that really hurt and the bye seems to have given them much needed rest. Freeney and Angerer are expected back, while Davis looks questionable after sitting out practice on Wednesday. With that trio back, or even just two-thids, they should be able to put up somewhat of a fight defensively and on the offensive side of the ball, don’t forget about Andrew Luck, who was looked like the real deal this year.

In spite of all of their injuries, the Colts rank just 24th in yards per play differential, which isn’t horrendous. That’s only .5 yards per play worse than the Packers, who seem to be out of sync this year. When their defensive effort is good, their offense is off and vice versa. An old gambling formula says divide the differential by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field to get the “real line”. That formula says this line should be -.5 in favor of the Packers, so we have a full 7 points of line value with the Colts. In spite of that, there’s a big public lean on the Colts and I love to bet against the public, especially on big leans.

Keep in mind, that “real line” is before you consider that the Colts are getting healthier. You can argue that the Packers are better than their yards per play differential would suggest, but either way, you’re going to find there’s some line value with the Colts. Green Bay would have to be a whole 1 yard per play better than where they’re at now for this line to be valid and that would tie them for 2nd with Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Dallas, and that’s before injury situation consideration. On top of that, home dogs of 7+ are 98-78 ATS since 2002. As long as I get touchdown protection, this is a significant bet on the Colts.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)

Sharps lean: GB 10 IND 5

Final update: Dropping a unit. The sharps don’t seem to like Indianapolis at all and Angerer and Davis will both miss this one and Dwight Freeney will be limited. Greg Jennings is out for Green Bay though.

Green Bay Packers 31 Indianapolis Colts 27

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-105) 2 units

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

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Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

I ranked the Ravens ranked 3rd in my Power Rankings and called them the 2nd best team in the AFC behind Houston because of the head-to-head win over New England and their superior yards per play differential over New England. I think that New England and Baltimore are both going to finish around 12-4 and with Houston likely to win the AFC, that would leave those two tied for the 2nd seed with the tiebreaker going to Baltimore, by virtue of the head-to-head win, making a likely rematch in the AFC divisional round one in which Baltimore would more likely to win

All that being said, this team really needs to kick their inconsistency habit. I came away from their win over Cleveland very unimpressed and disappointed that this team played down to the level of their opponent once again. They’ll have to prove they can avoid doing that this week. Last year, they were just 2-6 ATS outside of the division against non-playoff teams and their one win was in St. Louis after they had been embarrassed the week before in Tennessee. And at home against Arizona, even a loss the week before in Jacksonville wasn’t enough to embarrass them into avoiding a near loss to the Cardinals. They were even worse on the road, not just going 1-4 ATS, but actually 1-4 SU. Losing in Kansas City this week is definitely possible because they lost in similar situations in Jacksonville, Tennessee, Seattle, and San Diego last year.

Kansas City, meanwhile, looked horrendous last week, turning the ball over 6 times en route to a -5 day in turnovers. As a result of this, the odds makers have been able to move the spread 2.5 points (it was -4 last week) and the public is STILL pounding Baltimore, with a very heavy lean. I love betting against the public, especially on heavy leans. What the public doesn’t understand is how inconsistent turnovers are. Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5 have a turnover differential of an average of +0.0 in their following game since 2002. That’s essentially true for every turnover differential bracket you can think of. Kansas City is very underrated and undervalued coming off that loss. Their yards per play differential is actually just -0.2, which isn’t terrible.

Speaking of yards per play differential, an old gambling formula says to take the difference, divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field. By that logic, this formula should be -5. It’s not a huge difference at all, but you can argue that should be even lower. The reason Baltimore’s yards per play differential is so good is because Joe Flacco has been very good. You can argue though that he’s not actually an improved quarterback over the rest of his career. The jury is still out.

One thing that’s definitely different for the Ravens this year is their defense and that’s not a good thing. Their defensive yards per play allowed is very pedestrian and a 22nd ranked pass defense has a lot to do with it. The biggest reason for this is that they aren’t getting much of a pass rush as they rank 24th in pass rush productivity. They clearly miss Terrell Suggs.

Matt Cassel and company should be able to move the ball this week, so long as they don’t implode with turnovers again and if Baltimore plays down to the level of the competition yet again, Kansas City could definitely win. The only reasons this isn’t my stand alone pick of the week are that perhaps narrowing beating the Browns last week delivered a wakeup call to them and they won’t play down to the level of the competition. Also, the Ravens are extra rested after a Thursday Night game. Teams off of those games are 111-89 ATS on Sundays since 1989. I wish I had touchdown protection. Still, it’s a significant play and a co-pick of the week.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Update: One cool trend, dogs before being favorites are 72-42 ATS since 2011, including 19-8 ATS off a loss as a dog.

Sharps lean: BAL 13 KC 7

Final update: The sharps don’t like Kansas City, but this is one instance I’m not afraid to disagree with the sharps. This is the exact type of game Baltimore has trouble with and the public is pounding Baltimore because of how bad Kansas City was last week, even though their only issue was turnovers.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +235

Pick against spread: Kansas City +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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Cleveland Browns (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2)

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Cleveland Browns (0-4) at New York Giants (2-2)

In my weekly Power Rankings, I had the Browns in last for the 3rd straight week, but I didn’t feel comfortable about. Yes, the Browns are one of two remaining 0-4 teams and compared to the other one, New Orleans, they’re much less likely to turn things around. They’re the only 0-4 team that isn’t really a surprise. Everyone predicted they’d be bad, as they had been for years, and that’s been the case.

However, I really didn’t feel like they’ve been awful. They have lost a single game by more than 10 points and they’ve had a fairly tough schedule, playing Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and then Baltimore. Jacksonville has a win, but I don’t feel like they’ve looked good in any of their games, even their win, and their 2nd year quarterback appears to be much more of a bust than the Browns’ 1st year quarterback Brandon Weeden, who has improved as this season has gone on.

The Browns, meanwhile, rank just 23rd in the league in yards per play differential, which is not horrendous at all. If I were to compare then to Minnesota, Miami, Indianapolis, and St. Louis, all of whom started last year 0-4, I think they’re closer to Miami, who eventually finished 6-10, than the other three, who all got top-3 picks in the NFL draft.

So yes, the Browns are bad, but I they’re not awful and I feel like they’re underrated. Also, given that they have only lost 1 game by more than a touchdown and none by more than 10, I like that we’re getting 9 points with them this week. They’re 2-1-1 ATS this year and should be able to keep this one close again and improve to 3-1-1. On trend that works in Cleveland’s favor, teams in their 2nd straight road game as dogs off a loss are 59-38 ATS since 2008.

I also like that the public is betting the Giants, yet the spread is still falling. Also, even though the spread is falling, there is line value here. Going back to the Browns’ 23rd ranked yards per play differential, they have a differential .4 yards worse than the Giants. An old gambling formula tells says to divide that by .15 and add 3 for home field either way. By that logic, this line should be -5.5 in favor of the Giants, so we get 3 points of line value, which is significant. They’re also rested coming off 10 days rest, a situation teams are 111-89 ATS in since 1989.

Now, onto the Giants. They’re in a very tough spot this week. They’re coming off a loss to the Eagles as dogs and looking forward to a trip to San Francisco, where they will certainly be dogs. This is a classic breather game for them against the “lowly” Browns. Teams in that situation are 52-78 ATS since 2008. They’re also incredibly banged up. Kenny Phillips is expected to miss this game, which will hurt a pass defense that already ranks dead last in the league in YPA. An improving Brandon Weeden should be able to move the ball on them, just like everyone else has.

Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden are also expected to miss, though that’s not as big because Eli has proven he can put up big numbers in spite of banged up receiving corps. On top of that, two starting offensive lineman might not play. Eli is one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks when under pressure, but like any quarterback, his completion percentage does drop under pressure. Finally, this team is just 22-30 ATS at home since 2006 and 40-18 ATS on the road. I love exploiting these road/home disparities. Banged up and in a breather game situation, the Giants could find themselves in a game very similar to their week 2 game, needing a comeback to beat an inferior opponent.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharp lean: CLE 8 NYG 2

Final Update: The LV Hilton sharps seem very afraid to bet this game for some reason, but when do they, they pick Cleveland. No one likes the Giants this week. I feel pretty confident about this one.

New York Giants 31 Cleveland Browns 27

Pick against spread: Cleveland +9 (-110) 4 units

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Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

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Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

I was going to call the Cardinals the worst 4-0 team ever, but then I remembered the 2009 Broncos. The 2009 Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8, proving their start was a fluke. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.

So many things point to this being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranks tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential. They’ve won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.

This team is 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that.

Eventually, this team will even out at around .500. I started riding the correction with this team last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week (actually I nailed all 3) and I’m going to continue that going forward. Last week I mentioned a trend that teams are 7-12 ATS as a favorite after winning 3 straight as dogs. Well, how do those teams do the following week? Those teams are 5-14 ATS the following week, 2-6 ATS as favorites. It’s a big dynamic switch and it doesn’t affect them just once.

The Cardinals struggled with that last week and should continue to struggle with it this week. One other thing they struggled with last week was defensive line play without Darnell Dockett. He’s expected to be out this week too. Defense is their calling card so his absence is predictably huge. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential. The Cardinals lost that battle 6.5 to 4.2 to the lowly Dolphins at home last week and only won because they were able to recover all 6 fumbles that hit the ground. Recovering fumbles on the ground is much more luck than skill.

Now onto the Rams, they’re not great, but they beat a similar team last week, the Seattle Seahawks. I nailed that one too, another one of my co-picks of the week. The Seahawks are known for being a much worse road team than home team, but the NFC West is more or less like this as a whole, especially in the division. Since 2007, home teams are 37-23 ATS in NFC West divisional games. Even the 2011 49ers, who were the best single team this division has seen in that time period, went 1-2 on the road last year, losing in Arizona, winning but failing to cover as large favorites in St. Louis, and then barely coming away with a 2 point win in Seattle (the line was -1.5). St. Louis is a good home team anyway, going 5-3 at home in 2010, the last time they were a respectable team (which I think they are again). This year, they’re 2-0 at home, winning twice as home dogs.

The Cardinals are at a disadvantage traveling on a short week too. Thursday Home teams are 66-48 ATS since 1989. Now, they are 20-23 ATS as dogs and I fell into this trap with Carolina 2 weeks ago (although Carolina eventually became a small favorite with line movement). Veteran, experienced teams, who are normally favored, do seem to have the edge in this game and that edge cancels out the short travel week. However, it’s tough to call the Cardinals that since they have one of the younger rosters in the NFL. St. Louis has the advantage on a short week here, especially with Arizona coming off an overtime game. Teams coming off an overtime game are predictably exhausted the next week, so it’s tough to be 100% for a Thursday Night game. Teams are 3-13 ATS in this situation since 1989, 1-10 ATS on the road.

We’re also getting good line value with the Rams. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential several times (even worse last week), they’re at -0.7, which is the same as the Rams. An old gambling formula says to take the difference between two teams’ yards per play differentials and add 3 either way for homefield advantage. That suggests the Rams should be -3 here, not +1.5. In spite of that, the public loves Arizona this week. I love fading the public as often as I can. The odds makers are rich for a reason. The public always loses so they’re never a bad group to disagree with.

Given everything, this is one of my biggest plays of the week. Arizona is a very overrated team, especially likely without Darnell Dockett. They’re in a tough spot coming off an overtime game and then having to travel for a short week and play a team that just played a home game and didn’t have to go anywhere. NFC West divisional games tend to see the home team cover anyway. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time. I’m also putting 1 unit on the under. Neither of these teams are offensive teams anyway and the under is 68-50 on Thursdays since 1989.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 10 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Over/under: Under 39 1 unit

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Week 4 NFL Picks Results

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Week 4 Results

ATS: 10-5 +25 units/+2260

SU: 11-4

Upset Picks: 3-3 -75

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: +$2285

Public Results ATS*: 7-8 +4 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 32-28-3 +18 units/+1055

SU: 36-27

Upset Picks: 12-14 +$0

Over/Under: 2-0 +200

Total: +1255

Survivor: 2-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL)

Public Results ATS*: 27-35-1 -22 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

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Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (3-0)

In my power rankings this week, I poked holes in pretty much every other team in the league. I can’t do that with the Texans. They are without a flaw. Winning in Denver in the high altitude against a talented team and a no huddle offense is damn impressive and 3 games into the season, this is the Super Bowl favorite and the most complete team in the league.

The only two quasi-holes you can poke in this team are these. Can they stay healthy? And can Matt Schaub win it all on his first career trip to the postseason? Neither of those things are going to be factors this week. It’s not the playoffs yet and the only injury they have is depth receiver Lestar Jean, who is out after having knee surgery. All of the key players are still healthy.

As for the Titans, last week, they looked much more like the Titan team I put in the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Jake Locker looked much more comfortable with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt at full strength, going 29 of 42 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, although part of that might be Detroit’s crappy secondary. The Titans do rank 18th in yards per play differential, but I’m not putting them back in the playoffs or anything yet.

Chris Johnson is still hilariously bad, even against the type of poor run defense he would have gashed last season, and the young defense is still missing Cortland Finnegan and Colin McCarthy. The latter is expected back from injury sometime soon, but he won’t play in this one. Also possibly not playing in this one is Kenny Britt, who hasn’t practiced all week with an ankle problem. That obviously hurts Locker as he faces the toughest defense he’s played yet.

The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -9 in favor of the Texans. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. We’re getting 3 points of line value with the Titans and that doesn’t even take into account that Tennessee looked much better last week. This line was also -10 a week ago when the Titans looked like one of the worst teams in the league. I don’t know why it would shift 2 points in the other direction now that the Titans look passable, even though Houston’s win was impressive.

That being said, the Titans are in a tough situation this week. Dogs coming off a close (1-3 points) win as home dogs are 19-31 ATS since 2002. Teams tend not to be focused after a close, emotional upset win at home, which makes sense. Also Britt’s possible and likely absence does hurt them a lot. It’s one of the reasons, I believe, that they looked so much better last week, along with the return of Nate Washington to full strength.

I’m really torn on this one. There’s a reason I saved it for last. Houston is the best team in the league, but as we saw with the 49ers last week, teams that get anointed as the best team in the league by the media tend to fall flat the next week. That happened with the Patriots after week 1 too. The Titans are also coming off their best performance yet and are healthier than they’ve been all season, even with Britt possibly out. We also get line value with the Titans and the chance to fade the public.

However, Tennessee is in a tough spot and Britt’s absence does matter a lot with Locker facing almost definitely the toughest defense he’s ever faced as a starter. Also, while they looked much better last week, they still only managed to win by 3 and their defense once again looked really bad. And let’s not forget, in their first 2 games, they weren’t competitive at all.

I was going to just take the points and fade the public because of how well underdogs are doing this year (29-18 ATS) and how poorly the public is doing this year. Road dogs of 10+ and home dogs of 7+ are a combined 4-2 ATS this year. However, those two losses were both against the Texans, who really look like the real deal, unlike San Francisco and New England when they were anointed. The Texans have also covered in another bad situation this year, as road favorites (6-13 ATS this year) and against no slouch of a team, playing the Broncos in Denver. I’m not betting against them.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): TEN 5 HOU 5

Final Update: Sharps are also torn as I am and as afraid of this game as I am. The fact that so few sharps are picking Tennessee (sharps tend to love dogs and big dogs especially) makes me feel a little bit more confident in Houston, who is probably the best team in the league, but if I did 0 unit picks, this would be one of them.

Houston Texans 31 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Houston -12 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 4 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

Looks like the Chargers aren’t over their early season woes. They beat two crappy teams in week 1 and 2, but much like last year, they got destroyed once they played a real opponent. Last year they started 4-1, beating crappy teams, most of them by small margins, but lost 6 straight once the schedule got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-8 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era and they’re just 3-9 ATS on the road during that time period.

This week, they are road favorites in Kansas City. Road favorites are just 6-13 ATS this year and 7-12 straight up, but I think that might be a fluke and that it probably had something to do with the replacement refs. If the replacement refs were still being used, I think Kansas City would have a big trend on this side, but they aren’t.

The Chargers were road favorites in Oakland week 1 and won, proving to be an exception to what was the rule in the first 3 weeks of the season, but they barely did it despite Oakland losing their long snapper and messing up 3 separate punts, which the Chargers managed to turn into just 9 points. The Chiefs are a comparable team to the Raiders, maybe a little better. The Chiefs are also in a good situation coming off a close road win. Dogs coming off a close win as road dogs are 19-12 ATS since 2002.

This would be a strong lean if we still had replacement refs, but I like the Chiefs this week. The Chargers are not to be trusted in September, especially on the road and especially as favorites. It just wouldn’t an NFL season if people weren’t calling for Norv Turner’s job at the end of September and given what happened last week, they would almost definitely be doing so if the Chargers lost year in Kansas City. The Chiefs seem to have gotten their act together after a rough start to the season, much like they did last year, and this game should resemble the Chiefs’ close win over the Chargers in Kansas City last year.

On top of that, the public is betting San Diego pretty heavily and I like to fade the public when I can. One note, rather than putting 2 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’ll put all 3 on the money line. 1 point games happen about 2% of the time and it’s not worth the extra 10 cents for protection against something that has a 1% chance of hurting me.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): KC 12 SD 8

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +100 3 units

Pick against spread: Kansas City +1 (-110) 0 units

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Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Commanders

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

The Buccaneers are one of the few teams I’ve had as underrated before the season that’s actually become overrated 3 weeks into it. The Buccaneers have hung tough, on the scoreboard, with the Giants and Cowboys and beat the Panthers, but they’re not playing that well. They rank dead last in the league in yards per play differential, with a -2.0. No other team has one worse than -1.0. They’ve had a tough schedule, but they’ve looked completely inept on both sides of the ball. They’re winning the turnover battle (+4), but you can’t rely on that going forward. They’ve also lost starting defensive end Adrian Clayborn for the season.

Speaking of yards per play differential, the Redskins are that team with the -1.0, ranking 31st only ahead of Tampa Bay. Robert Griffin is the real deal, but whatever little help he had to begin with is getting hurt. Brian Orakpo’s and Adam Carriker’s absence on defense has led to them getting torched defensively by the Rams and the Bengals in the last two games and Trent Williams’ and Pierre Garcon’s injuries have left Griffin running for his life and without his top receiver.

Orakpo and Carriker are done for the year and both Williams and Garcon are expected to miss this week. However, the good news for the Redskins is that the Buccaneers pass defense is atrocious. They were the league’s 31st ranked pass defense last year and they rank 29th this year. Offseason additions of Eric Wright and Mark Barron haven’t really helped, and injuries have destroyed their pass rush.

Already missing Da’Quan Bowers likely for the season, the Buccaneers lost Adrian Clayborn for the year last week. Michael Bennett and Gerald McCoy can get the quarterback on that defensive line, but that’s it. Taking Clayborn’s place this week will be Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, a career journeyman who has never done anything of note. Even though Griffin’s offensive line is horrendous, he should still be able to buy himself enough time with his mobility to get the ball to his receivers. Even without Garcon, this group of receivers should have an advantage against Tampa Bay’s defensive backs. Like they have in every game, the Redskins, who rank 1st in the league in scoring, should light up the scoreboard this week.

However, like they have in every game, the Redskins will struggle to play defense. They rank 30th in the league, allowing 33.7 points per game, .7 more than they score, and dead last in opponent’s yards per play, despite playing Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford in the last 2 weeks. Fortunately, the Buccaneers rank dead last in yards per play so they don’t have the personnel to take advantage of this easy matchup.

At the end of the day, the Buccaneers are terrible on both sides of the ball, while the Redskins struggle defensively, but can score points because Robert Griffin is incredibly talented, even with lack of help. I’ve gone into detail about these two teams’ yards per play differentials. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 1 yard per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -3.5 in favor of the Redskins. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. 6 points of line value is nothing to sneeze at. I hate taking publicly backed dogs, especially when there are no applicable trends, but it’s a small play on the Redskins in this one.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): TB 11 WAS 3

Final update: Only game I really disagree with the sharps on (I side with the sharps on 12 of 15 this week, which makes me feel really confident). I don’t think much of Tampa Bay and at least Washington has a quarterback. I’ll go against the sharps here.

Washington Redskins 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Washington +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys

Chicago Bears (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys ended last season by getting destroyed defensively by, among others, the New York Giants. They lost 4 of their last 5 to blow the division and finish at 8-8, while they watched the Giants go on to eventually hoist the Super Bowl trophy. Given that, it’s no surprise that they spent as many resources as they did on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. It really seems to have paid off as they rank 1st in the league in yards per play allowed. Guys like Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne are playing really well, while several youngsters have stepped up.

Though they’ve faced the Seahawks and Buccaneers in 2 of their 3 games, they also did a solid job defensively on the Giants in the opener, holding them to 5.0 yards per play and 17 points. What’s even more impressive is that they’re doing this without Jay Ratliff, one of their best defensive players. He’s not expected to be able to go in this one either, but they might not need him much if they keep playing like they have.

While their defense has been excellent, their offense has been surprisingly middle of the pack. They’re normally one of the better offensive teams in the league and if they can get it together offensively and the defense continues to play well, they’re going to be a scary team. The biggest reason for their offensive issues is how many penalties they’ve committed. They lead the league with 22 offensive penalties. What’s even more concerning is that these penalties are mostly simple procedural penalties. I’d say they should be able to turn it around, but this isn’t a new issue for them. They were the 5th most penalized team in the league last year. Still, I don’t expect it to be THIS bad all year for them so there’s some room for improvement offensively and even with their offensive issues, they rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank right in the middle of the pack with an even yards per play differential. Their defense is also very good, as it normally is, but the offense is really sputtering. They had a huge performance week 1 against the lowly Colts, but they’ve struggled in the last two weeks against the Packers and the Rams. This was a top-5 offense last year before injuries struck so they should improve things eventually. They do have talent offensively; they’re just not playing up to it. Facing a tough defense this week though, this might not be the week to turn things around, especially with Matt Forte questionable.

I’ve gone into detail about these two teams’ yards per play differentials. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 1.3 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -11.5 in favor of the Cowboys. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. 8 points of line value is nothing to sneeze at. On top of that, the Bears are a public underdog and as much as I love the fade the public, I love to fade public underdogs even more.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CHI 7 DAL 3

Update: Sharps are not only afraid to bet this game, but they pick Chicago when they do. Anthony Spencer is expected to be out for the Cowboys, while Matt Forte is expected to play for the Bears. I’m dropping a unit.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against spread: Dallas -3.5 (+100) 1 unit

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