2012 NFL Picks

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Saints

Washington Redskins (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Welcome to the NFL Robert Griffin. For your first test, you have to go to the Superdome and play Drew Brees and the Saints where they didn’t lose all of last season (9-0 SU and ATS!!!). The Saints have obviously been hurt this offseason by BountyGate and possibly, to a lesser extent, by Drew Brees’ extended contract negotiations, which caused him to miss valuable pre-Training Camp practice time and possibly hurt locker room morale. However, the BountyGate losses they suffered are not huge. Jonathan Vilma was one of the worst middle linebackers in the league last year and looked pretty washed up. Free agent additions David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton will more than make up for his loss and will turn linebacker, a position of weakness for the Saints in 2011, into a strength. They also added Brodrick Bunkley, the league’s top run stuffing defensive tackle last season.

The bigger loss will be Will Smith at defensive end. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate. New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. Even with Smith missing 4 games with suspension, they should be a more efficient pass rushing team this season and they should be able to get some pressure against a Washington offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year and didn’t look any better in the preseason.

The Saints’ biggest loss was Head Coach Sean Payton, but they still have Drew Brees and, for what’s it worth, the Saints 1st team offense didn’t seem to miss a beat in the preseason. If anyone can come out the other side of the offseason they just had and still compete, it’s the Saints. Drew Brees is like an assistant head coach and they’re not changing things up much so they should still be more than fine offensively. They’re an incredibly talented team, possibly even more so than last year, and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick had it not been for the off the field issues they had in the offseason. I think they’re a bit underrated right now. They’re just -7  here. For reference, the Falcons were -7 coming into New Orleans week 16 last year. They finished 10-6. The Lions, same record, were -10 in the playoffs in New Orleans.

The Redskins are also underrated right now, but I don’t think they deserve to be just +7. Robert Griffin doesn’t have a great offensive line, but he’s got plenty of offensive weapons in the receiving corps and Mike Shanahan teams have always been able to run the ball, no matter who is starting at running back. Griffin’s rushing ability will also help open things up for whichever back starts this game. Defensively, the secondary is a problem, but they have a much underrated front 7 with two great pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, one of the best middle linebackers of all time in London Fletcher, a budding young linebacker in Perry Riley, and two solid defensive linemen in Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen. They won 5 games last year despite awful quarterback play. They should be a solid .500 team this year. Griffin’s presence will make a huge difference, just like Cam Newton did with the Panthers last year (Griffin’s got the superior supporting cast).

However, it may take Griffin a little bit to become acclimated to the NFL. One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. Griffin didn’t face particularly tough defenses in the Big 12, nor did he have to run a very tough offense and, while I don’t have too many concerns about his long term success, he might struggle out of the gate, especially in New Orleans against a Saints team that might be awfully pissed off after the offseason. Besides, I’m not betting against the Saints in New Orleans.

Update: Player suspensions in the bounty scandal overturned. Even if the players returning don’t have a positive effect on the game for the Saints, it’s a huge morale boost for the team. I’m adding an extra unit.

New Orleans Saints 34 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans Saints -7 (-115) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The Browns’ Brandon Weeden is 28 years old, but he’ll still have to make the transition from collegiate level defenses to NFL level defenses. The Eagles’ stout defense is going to be far tougher than anything he ever faced in the Big 12.

Weeden also has several major flaws, which is a big part of the reason why he wasn’t a top-10 pick. He tends to take unnecessary risks with the football and can get flustered when the pocket collapses. These are hardly rare attributes for rookie quarterbacks to have, but the issue with Weeden is, unlike most rookie quarterbacks, he doesn’t have 2-3 years to work through those flaws. If he were 22 or 23, sure he would have gone in the top-10, probably even a little bit ahead of Tannehill, but he’s 28, 29 this season. He’s actually older than Aaron Rodgers.

That’s why he fell to 22 to the Browns, where he wasn’t even the Browns’ 1st choice. They wanted Trent Richardson, Kendall Wright, and then Brandon Weeden, taking Weeden in the early 2nd round or late 1st after trading up, but when Wright went 20 to the Titans surprisingly, they just took Weeden. That tells me that the Browns didn’t see him as a polished prospect either. He won’t look like a polished prospect this year and especially not in his first game and against such tough competition.

Weeden has obviously physical advantages over incumbent Colt McCoy, but one of the things McCoy was really good at was avoiding turnovers. The Browns had just 19 turnovers last year. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. It’s not hard to see how the Browns will turn the ball over more this season and that will limit how much the newcomers will improve things. They’ll be better than the 30th ranked offense they were last year, but not a lot better and they will probably really struggle early in the year as Weeden gets adjusted to the NFL and fellow 1st rounder Trent Richardson gets healthy.

Weeden also won’t have a lot of help. Because they were unable to get Wright, their receiving corps remains very thin. Greg Little could have a breakout year if everything goes right, but Little was one of the worst in the league last year in yards per targets (partially McCoy’s fault) and after him, everything is an even bigger question mark. Mohamed Massaquoi, a mediocre receiver, will start opposite him while their depth behind the two starters are two rookies, Travis Benjamin, a raw 4th rounder, and Josh Gordon, a 2nd round pick in the Supplemental draft who hasn’t played in a game that counts in almost 2 calendar years. Tight end Ben Watson, meanwhile, is a declining player. The Browns add two other rookies to their offense, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and running back Trent Richardson, but the former was just a 2nd rounder so he might not be that great early on and the latter is less than a month removed from his 2nd knee surgery of the offseason so, even if he plays, it won’t be a full workload and he won’t be his normal self. This is a very young and inexperienced offense playing a great defense.

The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football. Joe Thomas is an excellent left tackle for the Browns, but they’ll give him a tough test and they should be able to exploit the holes the Browns have at other spots on the line. Aside from Thomas, only center Alex Mack is a solid starter on this offensive line, assuming Schwartz predictably struggles out of the gate as a rookie. Weeden will be under pressure all night and, as I mentioned, that’s something he has trouble with.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better.

It’s for that and several other reasons why I think the Eagles will be very good this year. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis. They Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. This year, they may be even more talented. They would have been in my underrated group in my season preview if they weren’t such a popular “sleeper” pick that there’s basically no line value with them anymore. They’re -9 here on the road with juice and were one of just 8 teams to have an over/under set at 10 or more wins.

The Browns defense has no chance of stopping the Eagles’ offense. They ranked 5th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21st against the run with 4.4 YPC. They did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

However, they have been ravaged by injuries this offseason, losing Phil Taylor, Chris Gocong, and James-Michael Johnson, while Scott Fujita will miss this game with suspension, meaning they’ll be without 3 of their top 4 linebackers, forcing undrafted rookie LJ Fort to start at linebacker. Taylor’s absence will force 3rd round rookie John Hughes to start at defensive tackle. Hughes was a major reach in the 3rd round. He didn’t even think he had a chance to go before the 4th round and didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft (rounds 4-7). The good news is that it looks like Joe Haden will not be suspended for this one, but the Eagles can just easily pick on opposite cornerback Sheldon Brown, who is heading into his age 33 season. The Browns have one good defensive back (Haden), one good linebacker (D’Qwell Jackson), and one good defensive lineman (Jabaal Sheard) and that’s about it. That won’t be nearly enough to stop the Eagles, who averaged 24.8 points per game last year, despite those 38 turnovers.

The Eagles finished last season on an impressive 4-0 run and turned into the team that no one wanted to have to face in the playoffs, outscoring teams 125-46 over that stretch. Of course, they didn’t have very tough competition during that stretch (@Miami, vs. NY Jets, @ Dallas, vs. Washington), but they don’t have tough competition here either and should be able to blow out the Browns in Weeden’s debut. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because I hate betting on road favorite of more than a touchdown (they tend to only cover about 40% of the time historically). It should be an easy blowout though.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against spread: Philadelphia Eagles -9 (-115) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I have the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency. If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. However, I’m just not that comfortable betting on the Chargers here. They’re incredibly banged up offensively. They’ll be without top running back Ryan Matthews, leaving decrepit running back Ronnie Brown to start, in his age 31 season, after averaging 3.2 YPC last year.

They’re also without Vincent Brown, their best receiver in Training Camp before his injury, leaving Philip Rivers with the overpaid Robert Meachem, who has a career high 45 catches despite playing 4 years with Drew Brees, and Malcom Floyd, an inconsistent receiver in his age 31 season who has caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games, missing 9 games over the past 2 years. Antonio Gates will be his favorite target, unless the 32 year old, who has also missed 9 games over the past 2 years, gets hurt.

Finally, they’ll be without left tackle Jared Gaither, leaving undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the blindside on a line already with major weaknesses at left guard and right tackle. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback who should bounce back from a down year last year (he had 14 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in his final 8 games, a sign of a turnaround) and he’s done well with limited help in the past before, but this might just be asking too much of him.

There’s also the issue of the Chargers’ early season struggles, especially on the road. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 2-9 ATS on the road during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era. The Raiders crowd will be amped up getting a Monday Night Football home game, a rarity for a franchise that has had a rough past decade or so (9 straight years without the playoffs).

All that being said, I’m taking the Chargers. I’m just not particularly confident about it. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. That’s not particularly impressive, but all the Chargers need to do is win here as small underdogs and I think they should be able to do that against an opponent who, like their early opponents last year, isn’t very good. Rather than putting 1 unit on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting 2 on the money line because 1 point games are rare. It’s not worth the extra -15 juice to get the +1.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24 (+105) 2 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

For those of you who followed me in the offseason, you’ll know that I did a lot of work to identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams to get ahead of the odds makers, bet them until they caught up or the teams proved him wrong, and make some money. Unfortunately, I got kind of screwed over week 1 or two of my overrated teams and two of my underrated teams are playing each other.

This game features the former. The Bears were 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game in 2010 and last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down. Brandon Marshall comes in to bolster their receiving corps and Mike Martz leaves as offensive coordinator, which is addition by subtraction because they never fit his scheme. Their offensive line is still a mess, but the Giants won the Super Bowl last year with the league’s worst offensive line in pass blocking efficiency. Jay Cutler has proven in the right scheme (not Martz’ where he had to drop back 7 steps on every play), that he can be very tough to sack (in his final year in Denver, he was sacked on 6.0% of pressured snaps, the lowest percent for any quarterback in the last 4 years). The defense will be solid as always, even with their linebackers aging, with strong defensive line and secondary play.

Meanwhile, the Colts have an over/under of 5.5 coming into the season. When an over/under win total is 6 or lower, the over hits about 2 of 3 three times. I wish I liked more of the lower over/under totals this year for prop bets, but I do like the Colts. Andrew Luck doesn’t have much of a supporting cast, but he should prove to be a franchise quarterback from the word go and with an easy schedule, they should be able to at least match the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Besides, since the start of a 16 game season, teams that regress 8 wins win on average 5.0 more the following season. Obviously losing Peyton Manning hurts, but Andrew Luck and maybe a few breakout players will make them better than people think.

So who am I going with? Well, it’s not an easy decision, but I’m going with the Bears, simply because this is Andrew Luck’s 1st NFL start and he gets an awfully tough test. I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams.

Luck is no ordinary rookie quarterback, but the Bears defense is no ordinary defense. The linebackers get all the hype, but their defensive line is very strong led by Julius Peppers and underrated defensive tackle Henry Melton and they have a very underrated secondary, led by cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Even if Urlacher isn’t his usual self, they should be able to hold Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense in check. Remember, Luck doesn’t have a lot of help. He should make the receiving corps and offensive line look better than they are, just like he did in college, but they don’t run the ball well. On the defensive side of the ball, there’s not much he can do and a suddenly explosive Bears offense should be able to move the ball well against it, even with guys like Vontae Davis, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis. I’m taking the home team for a small bet.

Chicago Bears 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -9.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I identified Buffalo as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They were 5-2 last year before injuries struck and averaging 30.1 points per game. Then Fitzpatrick, who was 155 of 229 (67.7%) for 1739 yards (7.6 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions through 7 games, broke some ribs which hampered his ability to play for the rest of the season, as he finished by completing 198 of 340 (58.2%) for 2093 yards (6.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, leading the offense to 18.1 points per game.

They also lost key members of their offensive line to injury shortly after that, which is important because up until that point, they were the league’s best offensive line, allowing just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games. Fitzpatrick has proven he can make throws and move the chains when he has time, but he threw 8 interceptions to 2 touchdowns under pressure last year and his under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 53.3%, 3rd worst in the NFL. Eric Wood is back, but Demetress Bell is not, instead being replaced by 2nd round rookie Cordy Glenn. If he can hold up, Fitzpatrick should have a solid year. And I haven’t even mentioned Fred Jackson, who looked like an MVP candidate through 10 games before getting hurt.

Now, Fitzpatrick is obviously not a proven commodity. There’s a chance his 7 game stretch last year was just a fluke, but he probably isn’t as bad as he was in their final 9 games either and as long as he is solid, the Bills should be able to field a competitive team. They have two great running backs in Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, a great offensive line, and a much improved defense. Only 2 teams had fewer than the 29 sacks they had last year and 9 of those 29 sacks came in one game against Washington’s terrible offensive line. No one had more than 6 sacks and only 3 players had more than 3 sacks.

Now they add Mario Williams, one of the best pass rushers in the league, Mark Anderson, who had had 15 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 420 pass rush snaps last season, an incredible 13.6% rate. They also return Kyle Williams, ProFootballFocus’ #1 defensive tackle in 2010, to a line that already had Marcell Dareus, the 2nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He should be even better in his 2nd year in the league and all of a sudden, the Bills have one of the best defensive lines in the league and a very solid defense.

That defense should continue to stifle a Jets offense that scored just 1 touchdown all preseason and that was with their 3rd team offense against a 3rd team defense (the guy who caught it was a final cut). You can argue that Tebow’s performance was a fluke and that he’ll be better in real games in a system he fits better, but you can’t argue that Sanchez’ was and he’s still the starting quarterback. Sanchez was a very overrated quarterback over the first 2 years of his career and was exposed last season. He’s completed 55.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA and 55 touchdowns to 51 interceptions in his career and actually has a worse career QB rating than Tebow, who has the lower completion percentage, but the higher YPA and better TD/INT rate.

He might even be worse this season for two reasons. The former is his confidence. He was reportedly rattled and “floored” when the Jets traded for Tebow, according to receiver Santonio Holmes. That’s not what you want to see. The latter reason is his receiving corps. I know they were bad last season, but they look even worse this season. Santonio Holmes can’t stay healthy and 2nd round rookie Stephen Hill is incredibly raw. If there’s one area where the Bills’ defense is susceptible, it’s at cornerback with a rookie and a 2nd year player starting, but the Jets don’t have the receiving talent at all to take advantage.

The Bills should win the battle upfront defensively with their great defensive line, in addition to winning the battle in the secondary. Sanchez is really bad under pressure. He took a sack on 23.8% of pressured snaps last year, 4th worst in the league, and his under pressure accuracy percentage of 49.0% was dead last in the league. The Jets actually have a decent offensive line, except right tackle Austin Howard, but Sanchez makes them look worse than they are. The Bills’ defensive line will also to that to them.

The Jets best chance of winning this game is if they can establish the run. The Bills shouldn’t be nearly as susceptible to the run as they were last year, when they ranked 27th in YPC, because of their improved defensive line and generally strong front 7. Besides, it’s not like the Jets have the running back talent to effectively run a conservative, run heavy offense, at least not until Tebow becomes the starting quarterback, functions as a much needed 2nd running back, and opens things up on the ground for Shonn Greene the way he did for Willis McGahee last year.

The Jets have a very good defense that should be able to keep the Bills’ offense in check, but I like the Bills to make enough plays come out victorious here. The Jets don’t have the kind of pass rush to beat Buffalo’s great offensive line and a healthy Fitzpatrick should be able to move the chains with consistency, aided by a good running game. Besides, I’m basically going to be betting on my underrated teams blindly until the spreads catch up or the teams prove me wrong. This spread is not accurate saying these two teams are evenly matched (granted, with juice).

Buffalo Bills 17 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3 (-135) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

When I looked at the week 1 games a few months ago, this one stood out to me. There was a reason. I bet the Falcons as road favorites in Chicago week 1 last year and got burned as the Falcons proved that their struggles on the road were more important than their talent edge and lost pretty easily. Obviously, I had that game in mind and I was nervous to bet the Falcons in a similar situation this year week 1, especially in Kansas City, a pretty tough place to play.

The Chiefs aren’t a great team, but they can definitely win some games and pull some upsets if you let them play their game. They have a strong defense which should be even better this season with the emergence of Justin Houston, a budding star at linebacker. The Chiefs have been starved for another pass rushing option after Tamba Hali for years and Houston worked his way into the starting lineup last season and had 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 207 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.6%. It’s no coincidence that they had 20 of their 27 sacks in the 7 games Houston started. His emergence should be able to make up for the dropdown from Brandon Carr to Stanford Routt at cornerback.

On the offensive side of the ball, they don’t have a very good quarterback, but they can run the ball with the best of them with Jamaal Charles coming back and Peyton Hillis coming in at running back behind an improved run blocking offensive line with Eric Winston coming in. They plan to have a very conservative offense and rely on their running game and defense to make Matt Cassel’s life easy. They made the playoffs with this formula in 2010, winning the division with a record of 10-6 and though I didn’t predict it (I don’t think Matt Cassel can keep up the 1.6% interception rate he had in 2010, considering his career rate is 2.9%, excluding 2010), it can definitely happen again in 2012.

However, they’re going to have a very tough time playing good defense and stopping an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. The Chiefs are missing Tamba Hali with suspension, which pretty much defeats the emergence of Houston and they could be without Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers. Those are their top 3 defensive players. Without their top pass rusher and possibly without their top cornerback and top middle linebacker, they’re going to have a tough time stopping the Falcons, even at home in Kansas City. I don’t think this line fully takes that into account as it’s only moved 2 points from 2-3 months ago to now.

That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like. Besides, in 2010, when the Chiefs made the playoffs, they didn’t do well against good competition like the Falcons almost certainly are. They went just 2-5 against teams that were .500 or better, including playoffs, and 8-2 against teams that were sub .500. One of their two wins came against the early season Chargers week 1, in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards and their 3 scores came on a long touchdown run, a pick six, and a punt return touchdown. The Chargers avenged that defeat with a 31-0 victory later in the season. The other came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were starting 3rd string quarterback Todd Bauman. Their 5 losses, meanwhile, came by a combined 88 points. I think they could see another big loss to a tough team this week.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (+100) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I didn’t have the Vikings listed as one of my underrated teams in the league, but maybe I should have. They had incredibly bad luck during their 3-13 season last year, going 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had the point differential of a team that should have won 5 or 6 games. A full season of Christian Ponder (who didn’t take over until a few weeks into the season and then got hurt) will also help. In the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league last season. He should be improved in his 2nd year in the league and also gets a new left tackle, Matt Kalil, which will really help him.

The Jaguars also have a 2nd year quarterback in Blaine Gabbert, but he looked like much more of a lost cause last year. He might have looked alright during stretches in the preseason, but that’s the preseason so it doesn’t mean a whole lot. If I had to pick one of these two 2nd year quarterbacks to improve this season, it’d be Ponder. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson won’t help Gabbert as much as people seem to think. Blackmon is a mere rookie and rookie receivers tend to struggle, even 1st rounders.

Discounting Jones and Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007.

That just proves how special Julio Jones’ and AJ Green’s rookie years were, but I don’t see that happening for Blackmon. It’s too improbable. Jones and Green also had the luxury of facing SEC defenses in college, the closest thing you’ll get to NFL caliber defenses in college, while Blackmon shredded the Big 12, which isn’t nearly as close. Robinson meanwhile, really struggled this offseason and preseason, which makes sense since at this time last year he was a final cut of the Chargers. He was the prototypical one year wonder signing and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he didn’t do anything of note this year.

Any improvement Gabbert and the passing game makes will be nullified by a decline in their running game. Maurice Jones-Drew accounted for 47.7% of the team’s yards from scrimmage last season, the most since OJ Simpson was not only a free man, but still playing football. Simpson set the record in 1974. However, the combination of his holdout and his high level of usage over the past 3 years suggests, at least, a slightly down year from MJD this year and he could definitely do his best 2011 Chris Johnson impression. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll barely play in this one as he works his way back. Rashad Jennings is a nice back, but he won’t be able to replace everything MJD did for them last year in this game.

The Vikings are also missing a stud running back as Adrian Peterson looks like he’ll be a game time decision roughly 9 months roughly from a torn ACL. Even if he does play, it’ll be as a backup to Toby Gerhart. Gerhart, like Jennings, is a nice back, but he’s not Adrian Peterson. The positive thing for the Vikings is that AP isn’t as much of their offense as MJD was for the Jaguars last year. The Vikings figure to be an improved team this year, while the Jaguars could be even worse.

In the last 6 seasons (2006-2011), only one team, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn and the 2009 Cleveland Browns, had fewer yards than the Jaguars did last year (2076). Even the Jimmy Clausen led Panthers in 2010 had more yards. Gabbert was that bad. In a passing league, that is not a recipe for winning games. Since 2006, 21 teams have averaged 6.0 YPA or worse. Of those 21 teams, 19 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 3.9 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. In order for the Jaguars to have averaged 6.1 YPA last year, on 469 attempts, they would have had to throw for 2861 yards, 682 more than they actually did. They may improve this year, but I don’t think they’ll improve that much.

And yet, this line essentially says these two are even (3 points is standard for home field advantage), which I don’t think is true. I also don’t like this matchup for the Jaguars. The Vikings’ back 7 is pretty bad in coverage, which is why they ranked 30th against the pass, allowing 8.1 YPA last year, despite 50 sacks. However, Blaine Gabbert really struggles with pressure in his face and the Vikings can pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the league.

Gabbert ranked 2nd worst in the NFL with a 52.9% accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns) and worst in the NFL taking a sack on 26.1% of his pressured drop backs. Unless he is a dramatically different quarterback in the face of pressure from last year to this year, he doesn’t figure to be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s poor back 7 in coverage. The Vikings 6th ranked run defense from 2011 should be able to stop Jennings and the Jaguars will have trouble moving the football. Ponder, meanwhile, won’t against a Jacksonville defense missing top cornerback Derek Cox and top linebacker Daryl Smith with injury.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Minnesota -4 (-105) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Broncos, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Hey Peyton Manning, welcome back to the NFL. Here on your left we have Mr. Woodley and on your right we have Mr. Harrison and what’s that hairy thing in the distance, why it’s Troy Polamalu. In all seriousness, Peyton Manning could not have asked for a tougher week 1 test. The Steelers were the league’s best scoring defense last year (14.2 points per game) and they did that despite a league low 15 turnovers. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

They also had several key injuries on defense last year. Both outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley missed time, which forced Jason Worilds to step into the starting lineup and Lawrence Timmons to move from inside linebacker to outside linebacker. Worilds did fine, though he certainly wasn’t as good as Woodley or Harrison would have been, but Timmons was awful. Clearly not a natural pass rusher, he had just 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback pressure on 114 pass rush snaps in 4 starts, a pathetic 2.6% rate.

Timmons was ProFootballFocus’ highest rated middle linebacker in 2010, so him being inside for all 16 games will definitely help their defense. The only real losses they had defensively were to marginal starting cornerback William Gay, washed up middle linebacker James Farrior, and injured defensive lineman Aaron Smith. If you can believe it, the Steelers’ defense might actually be better this season than last and even if it isn’t, they look poised for their SEVENTH top-3 scoring defense since 2004.

Things aren’t quite as good on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers hopes for an improved offensive line took a huge blow when rookie David DeCastro tore his MCL and when fellow rookie Mike Adams struggled in the preseason and lost his starting job to incumbent Max Starks. Willie Colon represents an upgrade at left guard as long as he’s healthy (the former right tackle has played in 1 game in the last 2 seasons), but other than that, this is the same offensive line that surrendered 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures to the Broncos in the playoffs last year. Doom and Gloom will give them trouble. The good news is that Ben Roethlisberger isn’t dealing with the lower leg problems he was dealing with last year, which will allow him to evade more sacks and probably help him improve upon a 22 for 40 for 289 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception performance.

The 2nd offensive issue has to do with Mike Wallace’s holdout. Wallace missed most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in which is never a good thing. Even if he didn’t get out of shape like Chris Johnson did last year, missing all that practice time will hurt him. Luckily, Antonio Brown was here all offseason and Wallace is still fast enough to be a pretty damn effective deep decoy, freeing Brown up to work one-on-one with a defensive back, which is a tough cover for the defender. Remember, Brown had 677 receiving yards to Wallace’s 393 in their last 8 games last year.

The final offensive issue is at running back. Rashard Mendenhall may or may not play just over 8 months removed from a torn ACL, but if he does play, he won’t be effective. Maybe Adrian Peterson can come back from a torn ACL that quickly and be fine, but Mendenhall won’t be his normal self. They’d be smart to hold him out of this one, especially since they themselves first predicted he’d miss the first 6 weeks of the season and then the first 3. Isaac Redman was supposed to be his replacement, but he’s dealing with groin and hip problems that made him look pretty slow in the preseason. He’ll probably get the start, but Jonathan Dwyer, who is finally in shape and had a great preseason, might be their best option on early downs, even though he only has 22 career carries.

The Steelers should be still able to put points on the board because Denver’s defense isn’t very good. People like to say this is an 8 win team adding a future Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s true on the surface, but when you look deeper, this team played as well as a 5 or 6 win team last year, when you look at their point differential and their Pythagorean Expectation. They won a lot of close games and whether you believe that was luck or some kind of divine Tebow magic, it probably won’t happen again this year. They had the league’s 24th ranked scoring defense and 25th ranked scoring offense.

The pass rush for the Broncos is strong with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, but if Ben Roethlisberger can evade the pass rush like he normally does, he should be able to shred up a pretty poor back 7. Champ Bailey is the only above average back 7 player (not counting Miller because he rarely drops into coverage) and he’s heading into his age 34 season so he’s no sure thing anymore. Peyton Manning will make the offense better, but there won’t be a ton he can do about the defense. The Broncos ranked 18th in points per play allowed last year, so even if they’re on the field less with the offense moving better, they’ll still surrender yards and points.

There’s also the question of how much better Peyton Manning will make the offense. He’ll definitely be an upgrade over Tim Tebow. Even the biggest Tebow fan has to admit that. However, there are a lot of reasons to believe he won’t be his normal self, especially early in the season. He’s 36 years old. His neck has been operated on 4 times in the last 2 years. He hasn’t played NFL football that counts in almost 2 years. He is going to be forced to adjust to a new city, a new team, new teammates, and a completely new playbook for the first time in his career.

He no longer will be able to play half of his games in a dome, but rather he’ll have to play half of his games at high elevations. In 2008, when he missed Training Camp and the Preseason, he completed just 62.2% of his passes, averaged 6.8 YPA, and threw 12 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in his first 8 games, as his team went 4-4.

He was also beginning to noticeably decline in 2010, with his lowest QB rating since 2002 (91.9), his lowest completion percentage since 2007 (66.3%), for his YPA since his rookie year in 1998 (6.9), his worst TD:INT ratio since 2002 (33:17), and his worst win-loss record since 2001 (10-6). He displayed weaker arm strength, both noticeably, and as evidenced by his 6.9 YPA and his 36.8% accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) on balls that go 20+ yards through the air, 26th out of 37 eligible quarterbacks. For reference, that statistic stood at 42.4% in 2009 and 43.6% in 2010. And that was 4 neck surgeries and 2 years ago with a much more familiar supporting cast.

He’s also not working with the best supporting cast. They were the league’s best running team last year, but that will change without Tim Tebow. Willis McGahee is now heading into his age 31 season and could be getting close to being done, especially without Tebow opening things up on the ground for him, and they don’t have a true #2 back.

Receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas have plenty of promise, but they’re also inexperienced. He should be able to get the most out of them, especially Decker, but it’s not like he’s throwing to Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark or even Pierre Garcon. At best, Decker is comparable to Austin Collie (his #3 receiver in 2010) and he’ll probably lead this team in receiving. There’s also the issue of their 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency. Peyton Manning will make them look better than they are as they go from protecting the blindside of the quarterback who holds the ball the longest to the one with one of the quickest releases. However, it’s still not a great offensive line.

I really think the Broncos are being overrated, especially early in the season, because it’s “Peyton Manning joining a 8 win team,” when in reality, this wasn’t exactly an 8 win team and Peyton Manning won’t exactly be Peyton Manning, especially early. Meanwhile, the Steelers figure to be one of the best teams in the league again this year and provide a very tough test defensively for Peyton Manning. Manning’s early schedule is brutal (vs. Pittsburgh, @ Atlanta, vs. Houston, vs. Oakland, @ New England) and I look forward to betting against him often early in the year, as I will here, taking the Steelers in a minor “upset.” I also like getting Ben Roethlisberger as an underdog, as he’s 15-10 ATS in that situation in his career. Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting 4 on the money line because 1 point games are rare. It’s not worth the extra -20 juice to get the +1.5.

Update: James Harrison will surprisingly miss this game. This doesn’t change my pick though. The Steelers still have a loaded defense and Jason Worilds played pretty well in his absence last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +110 (4 units)

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-110) 0 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Lions, Rams

St. Louis Rams (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

For those if you who didn’t follow me in the offseason, I did a lot of work in an effort to find the 5 most underrated and 5 most overrated teams going into the season. The idea is simple. Every year, 5 teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before make the playoffs, including one team with 5 or fewer wins the previous year and roughly 25% of teams who won 6 or fewer games the previous year. Likewise, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins. One team goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs and vice versa. In fact, on average, a team’s record changes by 3 wins in either direction each season. I termed this change “points of parity.” 1.8 teams change by 7+ points of parity, 4.4 teams have 6+ points of parity, 7 have 5+ points of parity, 11.3 have 4+ points of parity, 15.5 have 3+, etc. For more on this in a 7 part series, click here.

What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. Unfortunately, I got screwed over, at least for the first week of the season. Two of my underrated teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) are playing each other this week, as are two of my overrated teams (Baltimore and Cincinnati).

This game I lucked out with as it has one of my underrated teams facing one of my overrated teams. If you’ve been following me this offseason, you know why I think the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated, but I’ll repeat myself here for anyone who hasn’t been following. For Detroit, in order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

For St. Louis, they improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The fact that this line is so low, -7.5, solidifies my belief that the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated.  I believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 80% of the money is on Detroit, yet the line has dropped from -9 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7.5. They really want us to bet Detroit. The odds makers seem to agree that St. Louis is underrated and Detroit is overrated and that these two teams are more evenly matched than you’d think and they’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

I’m not saying St. Louis is better than Detroit. I have St. Louis winning 9 games with an easier schedule and Detroit winning 7 with a harder schedule, but it could easily be the other way around if the schedules were switched. Still, there’s a lot of line value and I think at the end of the year, we’re going to look back at this line and wonder why it wasn’t Detroit -3 (which, because Detroit is at home, would suggest they’re evenly matched).

Detroit obviously has the better passing game, but that’s about it. As good as Detroit’s defensive line is, St. Louis’ defensive line is comparable with 2nd year player Robert Quinn, who excelled in a situational role last year, stepping into the starting lineup opposite Chris Long, one of the game’s best pass rushers. Inside, they have Kendall Langford, a solid starter and free agent acquisition, and 1st round rookie Michael Brockers, though the latter is out for this game with a high ankle sprain.

As bad as St. Louis’ offensive line was last year, they should be better this year. They get Rodger Saffold back from injury on the left side and add Scott Wells at center, leaving left guard and right tackle as the only two holes. It’s not great, but it’s not as bad as it seems and the new quick throw offense that the Rams are putting in, similar to the one Bradford played well in as a rookie, will make life easier for Bradford and the offensive line. Their offensive line is comparable to Detroit’s decent offensive line, which has an aging Jeff Backus at left tackle, a mediocre Gosder Cherilus at right tackle, and an interior offensive line that struggles to open up holes on the ground.

Whatever huge advantage Detroit has at quarterback and wide receiver is nullified by St. Louis obvious advantages on the ground and in the secondary. The Rams secondary was ravaged by injuries last year, but adds Cortland Finnegan, one of the league’s top cornerbacks, through free agency, as well as two promising rookies in Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, and returns former starter Bradley Fletcher back from injury. Detroit’s secondary was torched all throughout last year and will continue to be torched this season, especially now that starter Eric Wright is gone and replaced with either 3rd round rookie Bill Bentley, or veteran Drayton Florence, cut by the Broncos earlier this week. Also likely gone for this game are safety Louis Delmas and cornerback Chris Houston with injury, leaving them without a capable starter in the secondary.

On the ground, Detroit is without Jahvid Best (injury) and Mikel Leshoure (suspension), leaving Kevin Smith, a mediocre runner who has a career 3.9 YPC, to start against an improved Rams run defense, even without Michael Brockers. Steven Jackson, meanwhile, remains the workhorse for the Rams until he gets hurt and he should have a huge game against a Detroit run defense that ranked 30th, allowing 5.0 YPC last season. That, along with the defense holding the Lions’ offense in check, will make life easier for Sam Bradford as he tries to move the ball against a very poor secondary, which he should be able to do, even without much talent at wide receiver. The running game will also force the defensive line to respect the run and will help the offensive line pass block a talented Detroit pass rush.

The Rams are my pick of the week. For one, I picked Detroit as one of my overrated teams before the season and St. Louis as one of my underrated teams before the season. Two, I love doing the opposite of what the odds makers want, which is clearly to bet Detroit in this one. Three, I feel these teams are evenly matched and therefore there’s a lot of line value, even at -7.5 in Detroit. I’m taking St. Louis to win and cover, though I’m much more confident about the latter than the former.

St. Louis Rams 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+290)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +7.5 (-120) 5 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams, with Wilson doing so here for the Seahawks. The one major difference between Wilson and the 4 other guys on that list is that he was not a 1st round pick. The history of non-1st round picks starting week 1 since 1994 is not pretty. There have been only 4 to do so before Wilson. They all listed below.

Chris Weinke 2001- 4th round pick, 54.3%, 5.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns to 19 interceptions

Quincy Carter 2001- 2nd round pick, 51.1%, 6.1 YPA, and 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions

Kyle Orton 2005- 4th round pick, 51.6%, 5.1 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

Andy Dalton 2011- 2nd round pick, 58.1%, 6.6 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

There’s a reason why non-1st round pick quarterbacks start so infrequently as rookies. This makes a lot of sense. Rookie quarterbacks in general struggle more than the rest of the league and non-1st round picks don’t exactly have a history of success in the NFL, especially recently. Wilson will be one of just 9 non-1st round pick starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season.

NFL drafting is generally a crapshoot. However, the one thing NFL teams seem to be pretty foolproof at doing is not letting starting quarterbacks fall out of the 1st round of the draft. Obviously, not all 1st round pick quarterbacks work out, but it’s almost impossible to find a starting quarterback after the 1st round. If you possess the baseline tools to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, you’re going to go in the 1st round, even if your accuracy or footwork or mechanics needs a lot of work. Almost always, if a quarterback falls out of the 1st round, it’s because there’s something majorly wrong with him, something preventing him from being a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Could Russell Wilson follow in Andy Dalton’s footsteps and buck the trend? I wouldn’t rule it out, but I’m not going to predict it. Wilson had a strong preseason, which is how he won this job, completing 63.5% of passes for 8.5 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 1 interception. However, only one of his games came against a 1st team defense and the preseason is generally meaningless because both offenses and defenses are using such vanilla schemes. Expecting Wilson to defy history because of how he fared in a few preseason games is ridiculous.

That being said, Wilson is better than John Skelton, Arizona’s quarterback. John Skelton had an awful preseason, completing 56.0% of his passes for an average of 5.2 YPA and 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions. This is more meaningful than Wilson’s numbers because it’s basically what we’ve seen from Skelton in his career. In his career, he’s completed 52.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions (in case you were wondering, Skelton was a 4th round pick). He led the Cardinals to a 6-2 record in 8 games last year, but largely because his defense allowed 19.0 points per game in those 8. Skelton led the Cardinals to 1.29 points per drive last season, which would have ranked 28th in the league last year. He’s not the answer at quarterback for the Cardinals (neither is Kevin Kolb), but he probably won’t have that much worse of a season than Wilson.

Skelton is also working with the far better receiving corps, while Wilson has a slight edge on the offensive line (though neither is very good). The Seahawks will have the edge on the ground if Marshawn Lynch can play, but if he can’t (he’s currently suffering from back spasms), then, all of a sudden, Arizona’s duo of Chris Wells and Ryan Williams, running behind an actually decent run blocking offensive line (for as awful as their pass protection is, Arizona was actually ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked run blocking offensive line last year), gets the edge over Robert Turbin and Leon Washington for the Seahawks. Defensively, things are pretty evenly matched. Seattle had the edge last season, allowing just 19.7 points per game to Arizona’s 21.8, but Arizona allowed 18.3 points per game in their final 9 games last year, as their young defense finally came into its own. Seattle also lost David Hawthorne this offseason and had several players have career years last year, something that might not happen again.

These teams are actually pretty evenly matched. I think Seattle is the better team, but it’s going to be a close, low scoring game either way in Russell Wilson’s debut (remember how much rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle and those were mostly 1st rounders). This line should be something like -2 or -3, in favor of Arizona, the home team, (3 points is for home field advantage). Instead, it’s the opposite, -3 in favor of the road team. Seattle is a notoriously bad road team, going 11-31 SU and 14-27 ATS on the road since 2007. In fact, NFC West divisional games are typically won by the home team. This makes sense as the NFC West typically features evenly matched teams that are better at home than on the road. NFC West teams are 87-81 SU at home over the past 5 seasons and 47-117 SU on the road. Over that time period, NFC West teams are 23-35 ATS on the road in the division.

I’m taking Arizona here and it’s one of my favorite plays of the week. I think Seattle, as a team, is being overrated right now because of Russell Wilson’s strong preseason, when, in reality, history says he’ll struggle this season and I expect that to be especially true early in the season. We’re getting a lot of line value here. I don’t like Seattle, a bad road team, as road favorites against a fairly evenly matched team (especially, potentially with the Seahakws minus Lynch) in a division when divisional matchups tend to be won by the home team (both SU and ATS).

Arizona Cardinals 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick (+125)

Pick against spread: Arizona +3 (-120) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]