2012 NFL Picks

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

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Tampa Bay is one of my underrated teams. In case you haven’t been following throughout the offseason, what I attempted to do this year was identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams going into the season and then bet them pretty much blindly for the first few weeks of the season until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. I think the Buccaneers are somewhere in between the 10 win team they were in 2010 and the 4 win team they were in 2011.

In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are a little bit overrated right now. I agree they’ll improve their 6 wins from last season (especially since their Pythagorean Expectation was about 7.5 wins last season), but I don’t think they’re quite a playoff team yet. Cam Newton could have a bit of a sophomore slump. He won’t be bad or anything, but this was the league’s #5 scoring offense that year. He can regress while still leading a good offense, just not the elite one they had last year. It’ll be up to the defense to compensate and I don’t think they can. The addition of rookie Luke Kuechly and the return of Jon Beason from injury in their linebacking corps will help, but they’re still weak on the defensive line and in the secondary, which are more important.

The Panthers will probably be about a 7 or 8 win team this year. I think they’re a year away. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, figure to be right in that same area, between the 4 they won last year and the 10 they won in 2010. These teams are pretty evenly matched, with Carolina having the better offense and Tampa Bay having the better defense. For that reason, this line should be Tampa Bay -3 because it’s in Tampa Bay, but it’s the opposite, Carolina -3. There’s a lot of line value with Tampa Bay, an underrated team, and I like them to win a close game between evenly matched teams at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick (+115)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3 (-130) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, 49ers, Packers

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)

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Anyone who has been following the website during the offseason knows I’m not particularly optimistic about the 2012 49ers. I have them as my team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs (there’s one every season) and my team that sees a win decrease of 6+ games (also one every season). They had 10 turnovers last year, an NFL record. Unfortunately, turnovers and takeaways are fairly inconsistent on a yearly basis. Teams that have fewer than 20 turnovers win, on average, 2.69 fewer games the next season. Those teams average 26.3 turnovers per year the following year. Meanwhile, teams that have 35 or more turnovers average 28.3 turnovers the following year.

The same is true for takeaways. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers and 2 fewer wins in their next season. The 49ers forced 38, for a turnover differential of +28, best in the league over the past decade. Teams with differential of +15 or higher have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Teams with differentials of +15 or higher have a differential of, on average, +2.1 the following season. Teams with differentials of -15 or lower have a differential of +1.4 the following season. Teams with 20 takeaways or less average 25.8 takeaways the following season, while teams with 35 or more average 27.5 the following season.

Meanwhile, the 49ers also improved 7 games last year and teams that do that win, on average, 4.5 fewer games the next season. Along the same lines, since 2003, of the 16 teams who have gone from out of the playoffs to a 1st round bye (like the 49ers did last year), 7 did the opposite thing the following season, and those teams won an average of 3.2 fewer games the following season. The 49ers also had tremendous luck with injuries last year, only losing Patrick Willis for 3 games. Defensively, they had 9 or 10 of 11 starters have career years. If guys get hurt at a more normal rate this year and say 5 of 10 guys regress slightly, it’ll be noticeable on the field and in the win total.

On top of that, I’ve followed the NFL long enough to know that teams without legitimate franchise quarterbacks don’t have staying power. You can have a good season or even a great season one year when everything else goes right, but you’ll never have the consistent success of the teams with elite quarterbacks. The 49ers are either a one year wonder or a team that’s going to take a step back this year. I lean towards the latter because I really respect Jim Harbaugh and Trent Baalke but they have to do something about the quarterback position eventually and, either way, they’ll regress this season.

The Packers also had more than 35 takeaways, fewer than 20 turnovers, and a turnover differential of higher than +15. Here’s why it won’t affect them as much. Defensively, they may have fewer turnovers, but they added 3 talented rookie defensive players in the first 2 rounds of the draft, and could get potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams, key players on a Packers defense that allowed the 2nd fewest points in the league in 2010, when they went to the Super Bowl.

Offensively, they have an elite franchise quarterback. Teams with elite franchise quarterbacks tend to be more immune from big shifts in turnover numbers. Peyton Manning and the Colts had 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times, while Tom Brady and the Patriots had 20 or fewer 3 times. Of those 8 combined times, 5 times the team had 20 or fewer turnovers the following season. Of the 3 times that didn’t happen, one is yet to be determined, because the Patriots did it last year, one was the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady for the season week 1, and the other was the 2008 Colts, who had a mere 21. Aaron Rodgers may throw more turnovers than the mere 6 he threw last year, but if he does, it’ll probably be something along the lines of the 11 he threw in 2010 or the 13 Tom Brady threw last year after throwing just 4 in 2010. The 49ers don’t have that luxury at quarterback.

Yes, the Packers may regress a little bit, but you can regress 2 or 3 games when you win 15 games and still be fine. Teams that improve 5 games in a season regress about 2.4 games the following season. The Packers don’t have every warning flag going off saying “Major regression!!! Major regression!!!” like the 49ers. They’ll be a 12 or 13 win team, which is what they’re averaged over the last 3 years (12.0) and compete for another Super Bowl. They’re a much better team than the 49ers, but this line (-5) doesn’t suggest it. What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. I identified San Francisco as an overrated team and will be betting against them pretty heavily until they stop being overrated or prove me wrong.

Even if the 49ers prove everything I wrote above wrong, I still like the Packers in this situation. If these two teams faced off last year, when everything was going right for the 49ers, I would have picked the Packers to win and cover against this line. San Francisco barely beat New Orleans at home. Green Bay is a superior and similar style team compared to New Orleans and this game is in Green Bay. As good as the 49ers’ defense is, the Saints still hung 32 points on them in San Francisco.

In fact, you look at how they did against elite quarterbacks in general (not counting Ben Roethlisberger because he was hurt), they allowed 316 and 311 yards to Eli Manning, 462 yards to Drew Brees, and, if you want to count them, 293 yards to Matt Stafford and 345 yards to Tony Romo (that game went into overtime, but Romo also missed time in the game with bruised ribs, so that evens it out). The 49ers have an amazing run defense, but their pass defense can be thrown on. They ranked a solid, but not elite 10th against the pass last year, allowing 6.9 YPA and that was with all 4 starting defensive backs having career years.

Aaron Rodgers and company will be able to move the ball. They won’t be able to run, but that’s not a big part of their offense anyway. I expect the Packers to score in the 30s here and, now on the road, I don’t expect Alex Smith and company to keep up. He could easily throw a couple picks if they get down early and get a head start on that increase in turnovers. Besides, it’s not smart to bet against the Packers. They were 11-6 ATS last year (including 7-2 ATS at home), which goes right along with their 35-19 ATS record from the last 3 seasons. The 49ers were 12-4-2 ATS, but that’s because they were so underrated for the first half of the season. After ripping off a 9-0-1 ATS stretch to start the season, they finished just 3-4-1 ATS. It’s one thing to have a strong ATS record when sneaking up on people like the 49ers did last year. It’s another thing to do it as defending Super Bowl champs. The Packers won’t sneak up on anyone this year either, but they’ll still be a covering machine. This is one of my favorite picks of the week.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -5 (-110) 4 units

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)

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I might be the biggest Giants doubter left out there. I believe that this is not an elite team, but a very good team that can get hot and play like an elite team for stretches. They did that down the stretch last season, but I think this season, we’re going to see them play like they normally play, pretty well, but not good enough to be considered among the elite teams in the league. That being said, this line is absolutely ridiculous. The Giants are -3.5 at home against the Cowboys, who they beat twice in 4 weeks last season, hanging 68 points on them, while allowing just 48. This line suggests that Cowboys are just a half point better than the Giants (add 3 for home field advantage).

Part of that is just that the Cowboys are being very overrated right now, once again. They’re a frequently overrated team because of their name and their status as America’s team, but they never seem to meet expectations and I think this season will be another instance of that. Their interior offensive line still sucks. In fact, it might be worse with Nate Livings, one of the worst interior offensive lineman in the league last year, coming in at left guard and at right guard, it will be Mackenzy Bernadeau, a career backup and former 7th round pick randomly given a starter’s salary and starting job in Dallas this offseason. Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland are gone and, as strange as it might sound, they might miss those two. Phil Costa, one of the worst centers in the league last year, returns, unfortunately.

They also lack depth in the receiving corps and at running back. The former is more important in this game because Jason Witten is unlikely to play. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are likely to play, after both dealt with injuries in the preseason, but it’s very concerning that the latter’s injury was a hamstring problem. Those things tend to linger and affect your ability to play at your normal level of play even if you do play. Austin missed 6 games with hamstring problems last year and was limited to just 43 catches for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns in 10 games last year, well off his career averages. Behind Bryant, Austin, and Witten, their backup receivers have a combined 37 career catches. John Phillips, who has 22 of those, will get the start in Witten’s likely absence, which is a major downgrade, both as a pass catcher and as a run blocker. Jason Witten is frequently one of the best run blocking tight ends in the league.

The Cowboys lack of depth at running back is notable because starter DeMarco Murray has injury issues dating back to his days at the University of Oklahoma. His primary backup is Felix Jones, but he’s never proven he can handle the load when given a chance to start and he’ll probably get hurt before Murray, given his history. The Cowboys added two new cornerbacks, Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr, after getting torched by the Giants last season, but only the latter will have much of a positive impact in this game. Rookie cornerbacks like Claiborne tend to take a year or so to get up to NFL speed. Even Patrick Peterson really struggled in coverage last year. Claiborne probably won’t have a very good 1st game in the NFL, which is notable because the Giants have two great receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. They won’t be able to contain both. The safety position and defensive line, especially with Jay Ratliff hurt, are also weaknesses and they still lack a complimentary pass rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware, so defense is still a problem and the Giants should be able to move the ball pretty easily.

The Giants are dealing with their own injuries at left tackle and cornerback, but it’s not a huge issue because they dealt with injuries there last year and still won the Super Bowl. The latter is not much of a concern at all. Yes, with William Beatty expected out, Sean Locklear is going to have his hands full with DeMarcus Ware, but Eli Manning, like his brother is one of the best in the league at throwing under pressure and avoiding sacks. Eli Manning’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 70.3% last season, which led the league. Meanwhile, his sack percentage (sacks per pressured drop back) was 12.4%, only behind Michael Vick. It’s because of this that he was able to win the Super Bowl despite having the worst offensive line in the league in terms of pass blocking efficiency. For example, Eli Manning was under pressure from DeMarcus Ware 12 times in 2 games last year with David Diehl starting in place of an injured Beatty, but only took 2 sacks. Eli will neutralize Ware again.

The injury at cornerback is slightly more concerning. Yes, Terrell Thomas missed all of last season with injury and Prince Amukamara, who is expected to miss this game with injury, didn’t have much of an impact as a rookie. Aaron Ross is gone, meaning Michael Coe will step into the starting lineup. Ross wasn’t great, so it’s not a major downgrade from what the Giants threw at the Cowboys last season, but up until the playoffs, the Giants didn’t really do a good job of stopping anyone. They allowed 25.0 points per game, including 24 per to the Cowboys in their two meetings and that was after they had their trio of defensive ends mostly healthy (Umenyiora did miss the first game). The Cowboys will be able to move the ball pretty well.

This is going to be a shootout, but the question is, can the Cowboys beat up with the Giants? I don’t think so. The Cowboys’ offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Giants pass rush and unlike Manning, Romo isn’t quite as bulletproof under pressure. His under pressure accuracy was 64.6% last year, pretty good, but not as good as Manning. His also took a sack on 20.5% of pressured snaps, 7th worst in the NFL. The Giants will get to him for a few sacks and stall a few drives and keep him pressured really for most of the evening. Both teams will be able to run the ball pretty well with good talent at running back. The Giants had the worse run defense last year, 4.5 YPC, and are now missing Chris Canty for the year, a talented starter for them last year at defensive tackle. The Cowboys allowed 4.1 YPC, but they’re also missing top defensive tackle Jay Ratliff have the worse interior offensive line so they won’t be able to fully take advantage of the Giants’ struggles against the run. Both teams will run pretty well, but neither team will distinguish itself from the other on the ground.

When it comes down to it, I like Eli Manning to outplay Tony Romo in this one once again. It’ll be a high scoring affair, but I think the Giants have the better team and they always seem to have the Cowboys’ number, beating them in 5 of their last 6 matchups. They also play much better football in the 1st half of the season, going 47-17 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Through week 9, they’re 40-25 ATS under Coughlin.

The Giants also have the situational edge as they’re playing in a “stand alone” week 1 game as defending Super Bowl Champs. Since the NFL started the traditional of having defending Super Bowl champions play in a week 1 “stand alone” game at home in 2002 (first on Monday Night Football, then Thursday Night Football, and this year on Wednesday Night Football because of some stupid political crap), the defending champ is 10-0 and covers 7 out of 10 times. Teams are normally very emotional and amped up after the pregame celebration and that translates to the field in a positive manner. I don’t think the Giants will break tradition here and I am fairly certain they will win and cover.

Prediction: New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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