2012 NFL Picks

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Rams

St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

The Buccaneers got destroyed in New Orleans last week, losing 41-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions as huge home dogs last week after that 52-0 loss in Arizona the week before.

However, I only like doing this when the team is a dog. Here as a favorite, it’s a different dynamic for the Buccaneers. They’re supposed to bounce back and win. They’re not going to be overlooked and they certainly aren’t undervalued, especially as publicly backed favorites and anyone who reads these picks frequently knows I love to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run.

The Buccaneers certainly may be embarrassed (though you’d think they would have been embarrassed last week after losing at home to the lowly Eagles, but that didn’t work out), but it’s not enough for me to take them solely for that reason. Since 2002, dogs are 63-33 ATS off a 31+ loss, while favorites are just 15-13 ATS.

Given that, I actually like the Rams this week. They also lost last week, though not in as embarrassing a fashion. However, as a result, this line didn’t move in either direction despite the Buccaneers’ huge loss. I’m not too worried by the Rams’ loss. They are now 0-2 ATS this year as favorites, but they remain a pristine 9-3 ATS as dogs, as they are here.

At first glance, we are getting line value with the Buccaneers. They rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.02, while the Rams rank 26th at -0.43. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Tampa Bay should be 7 point favorites. However, the Buccaneers rank 21st in regular and weighted DVOA, while the Rams rank 19th and 18th respectively, which pretty much defeats all that line value.

The Buccaneers are also likely to overlook them with a big divisional matchup up next. Teams are 59-93 ATS before being touchdown divisional dogs since 2008 and the Buccaneers go to Atlanta next week. The Rams have an equally big game next week in Seattle, but they’re less likely to overlook the Buccaneers as dogs.

Favorites are 13-29 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown divisional dogs, while dogs are 45-64 ATS. Going back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 37-63 ATS as favorites and 91-127 ATS as dogs. Neither one is good, but I prefer the dog, especially as good as the Rams have been as dogs this season. The Buccaneers also tend to be very streaky and right now they are definitely streaking in the wrong direction. It’s also possible they might have just quit as they did late last season, though that’s unlikely under disciplinarian 1st year Head Coach Greg Schiano. It’s not a significant play though.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 8 TB 4

Final thoughts: No change.

St. Louis Rams 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-110) 2 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

Apparently the roof is falling in Pittsburgh. They’ve gone from favored by 4.5 to favored by 3 (passing two key numbers) and the public is still on Cincinnati. Why? Because they lost in overtime in Dallas in a game that was meaningless for them because they still control their own destiny? Because they lost another game as non-divisional road favorites (5-16 ATS under Mike Tomlin, which has generally been an overall successful tenure)?

While they’ve generally struggled outside of the division as road favorites, they always seem to win these divisional games. They’re 52-33 ATS in the division since 2000, including 19-7 ATS against these Bengals. Speaking of these Bengals, they’ve had a lot of issues against playoff caliber opponents. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and he’s just 2-4 against playoff contending teams this season. In all other games over the past 2 seasons, he’s 15-2.

In those 14 games, Dalton is a combined 291 of 498 (58.4%) for 3217 yards (6.5 YPA), 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. In the other 17 games, he’s 331 of 532 (62.2%) for 3751 yards (6.5 YPA), 28 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. He’s never beaten the Ravens and Steelers and he’s been terrible in those 6 games, going 108 of 208 (51.9%) for 1236 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s never even covered in those 6 games.

We are getting line value with the Bengals, as they rank 7th in net points per drive at 0.49, while the Steelers rank 13th at 0.10. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cincinnati should actually be favored by 2. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Bengals rank 12th in regular and 7th in weighted, while the Steelers rank 17th in regular and 15th in weighted.

However, it’s worth noting that the Steelers are probably healthier now than they’ve been all year, even with Ike Taylor out. LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Ben Roethlisberger are all healthy at the time same for the first time all season. That was the case last week, but they just didn’t seem to care about that game nearly as much as Dallas. This week, I’m expecting one of their best performances of the year.

Teams do tend to struggle off a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-47 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 11-24 ATS as home favorites. However, at the end of the day, I’d have to see Andy Dalton beat a quality opponent in a big game to believe it. The Steelers are underrated and the Bengals are a public dog, and I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run, especially public dogs. Besides, at the end of the day, I trust Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to win an important game much more than I trust the Bengals and as long as I’m getting field goal protection, it’s a significant play.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 17 PIT 10

Final thoughts: Even though it’s not a heavy lean, it’s worth noting it’s at -4 in the Supercontest. I like Pittsburgh a lot at -3. I’ll believe Andy Dalton can beat a quality team in a big game when I see it.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3 (-110) 3 units

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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)

The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and that’s it. They got blown out in Chicago, New York, New England and last week, to a lesser extent, in Houston. Meanwhile, they have just 1 win by more than a touchdown, winning by 17 in Jacksonville. They’ve played close games with the likes of Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Cleveland.

As a result, they rank much worse in net points per drive than their record would suggest and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which takes the Colts’ cupcake schedule into account. They rank 24th in net points per game at -0.32. In DVOA, they are 28th and 26th in weighted DVOA. The Chiefs rank dead last in everything and have a net points per drive of -0.97, but we’re still getting line value with them. If you take the difference between their net points per drive and the Colts’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 to the Chiefs’ side for home field, you get that this line should be Indianapolis -4.5, before even taking into account that the Colts are even worse in DVOA than net points per drive.

This makes sense. This line is -7 and as bad as the Chiefs are, the Colts have only beaten one team by more than a touchdown on that was on Thursday Night, when weird things tend to happen. Recently, the spread has really caught up to the Colts. After starting out 6-3 ATS, they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games, including a big loss in New England and near losses to the Lions and the Titans. The Colts’ two only covers in that stretch were that comeback win against the Lions and a home game against the Bills, which they won by 7 on a return touchdown.

Besides, this is an obvious sandwich situation for the Colts. They just lost to the Texans and have to play them again next week. They’re also basically locked into the 5 seed in the AFC. Why would they get up for the crappy Chiefs? Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs again. They’ll see this as an easy breather game. Teams are 23-39 ATS in that spot in a non-divisional game in between two divisional games. Going off that, teams are 27-47 ATS as road favorites of 3 or more before being home dogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 5-13 ATS in a non-divisional game before being a divisional game.

Ugh, when I was watching the Chiefs not manage a single first down in the first half against the league’s worst defense last week, I decided not to pick them for a significant play to cover another game the rest of the way. Brady Quinn is just too terrible, especially missing Dwayne Bowe, his only good receiver. However, when this line moved from +6 to +7, I talked myself into taking them for a significant play.

This is just not a good spot at all for an overrated Colts team and the public is still all over them (I love fading heavy public leans). And besides, whenever I make teams unbettable and refuse to pick them for a significant play even in a great situation, they seem to cover the following week. Anyone can cover on any given Sunday in the NFL (that’s the whole point of the spread). Brady Quinn is 2-0 ATS in his last two home games and the Chiefs are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games. The Colts, however, are my survivor pick this week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (90% range)

Sharps lean: IND 13 KC 5

Final thoughts: Worth noting this is at +6.5 in LV Hilton. I wouldn’t make it a significant play at +6.5, but getting the full touchdown is too good to pass on. We also have reverse line movement as this has moved from +7 to +6, which is good to see because it means sharps in general are on the Chiefs, but I’m not budging from 3 units at +7. I need the full touchdown and I don’t want to put anything more on the Chiefs. This is the one 3+ unit pick I’m nervous about.

Indianapolis Colts 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7 (-110) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints

New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However, after two straight wins, they are at 8-6 and in control of their own destiny, which means that once again, they’ll have a chance to choke this December, starting with this game against the Saints.

I’m only half kidding when I say this. The Cowboys are not good as front runners. That’s why they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites and why they always choke late in December. Here, they are home favorites and of course it’s also December. Tony Romo is 12-20 ATS in week 14 or later in his career, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites. They were able pull off two upsets to get themselves back into the playoff race, but now that they’re home favorites and something is actually expected of them as they control their own destiny for a playoff spot 2 weeks later, they probably won’t get it done.

Speaking of that win last week, they might be a little overconfident off of it. Teams are 13-29 ATS since 1989 as home favorites off a home win of 1-6 points as dogs. It’s always important to remember where teams were the week before and not overreact to one game. The Cowboys certainly didn’t play great against the Steelers, who are now 5-16 ATS as non-divisional road favorites under Mike Tomlin (including losses in Oakland and Tennessee this year). The Steelers also probably weren’t taking that game that seriously as they still control their own destiny for a playoff spot with a loss. Plus, here’s an interesting trend, teams are 20-41 ATS off a win against the Steelers since 2002.

The Cowboys might also have one eye on next week. I know the Cowboys have to beat both the Saints and the Redskins, so they won’t completely overlook the Saints here, but which game do you think they’ll be more focused for, a home game against a 6-8 team or a road rematch against a divisional rival who dominated them at home a few weeks ago? For the Saints, this is their Super Bowl, a chance to play spoiler. All they have left is a home game against the Panthers. There’s a trend for that. Dogs before being favorites are 108-67 ATS since 2011, including 118-61 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Besides, as the Saints showed last week with their blowout win over the Buccaneers, they’re not to be overlooked. In fact, numbers say the Saints are a better team than the Cowboys. The Saints rank 12th in net points per drive at 0.14, while the Cowboys rank 18th at -0.06, while this line says these two teams are equal, because 2.5 points is standard for home field, not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles.

If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that this should be a pick em, again not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles. DVOA backs this up as the Saints rank 15th in DVOA and 14th in weighted DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 16th and 17th respectively. We’re getting points with the better team in the better situation. It’s a big play on the Saints.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Sharps lean: NO 19 DAL 15

Final thoughts: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)

The Bills got blown out last week, losing 50-17 “at home” in Toronto to the Seahawks. As a result, they rank 28th in points per drive at -0.58. The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank 17th at -0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Miami should be favored here by 8.5, rather than the 4.5 they actually are.

However, DVOA refutes this. I like to use DVOA to determine whether or not that net points per drive based figure is valid because it takes into account strength of schedule and things like that. Miami ranks 18th, while Buffalo ranks 22nd, which is a much smaller gap. That gap is even smaller still in weighted DVOA, which weights more recent games more heavily, as Buffalo ranks 22nd and Miami ranks 20th.

This is because, huge loss last week aside, the Bills have been playing some decent football lately compared to the Dolphins. Last week’s loss was actually their first of 12+ since week 5. Since then, they won in Arizona, lost by 1 at home to Tennessee, lost by 12 in Houston, lost by 6 in New England, beat Miami, lost by 7 in Indianapolis, beat Jacksonville, and then lost by 3 to a decent St. Louis team, before last week’s blowout loss.

Blowout losses week 1, week 4, and 5, plus last week’s really damage their net points per drive, but 3 of them were a while ago and I think last week’s blowout loss can be blamed on the fact that they don’t seem to get up for Toronto games. I was worried about the game being in Toronto when I picked the Bills last week (+6) and made it a smaller play for that reason. In hindsight, I should have laid off it completely, but it didn’t appear to be a true neutral site because it’s so close to Buffalo. Plus, Buffalo’s mediocre 1-2 record there didn’t alarm me because this is a generally a mediocre team anyway.

However, after that blowout loss and the subsequent comments by Bills center Eric Wood, I think I’ll lay off the Bills in Toronto in the future if they ever play there again. Wood called the game a “joke,” said that “nobody wants to play there” and hopes they “don’t renew it.” Wood stood by those comments later in the week, saying “It kind of ticked me off. The way I look at it was, last week we were still in the hunt, and we’ve got a team traveling from the West Coast and we make them real comfortable. They get on a plane to play in Toronto, in a dome, without much crowd noise. You provide comfort that shouldn’t happen when you travel to Buffalo. You should have a cold, uncomfortable feeling when people come in. That’s our advantage. We go up in that dome and we let them feel really comfortable.”

Given that, I don’t put a ton of stock into that game and even still, the difference between these two teams’ weighted DVOA is negligible so that 8.5 point figure seems to be invalid. We’re not getting any line value with either side. However, Buffalo is in the much better spot this week. Teams tend to bounce back well off of a blowout losses like that. Teams are 63-33 ATS since 2002 off a 31+ point loss. Just look at Arizona last week after Seattle blew them out. Buffalo is more talented than them.

Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think that will be the case this week. They’re certainly undervalued as the line has shifted from -3.5 to -4.5 in the past week (more significant than you think because 4 is a key number) and still the public is on Miami. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run.

That’s not the only good spot the Bills are in, however. The Dolphins have a much bigger game next week in New England, while the Bills close out with a home contest against the New York McElroys. The Dolphins won’t be as focused as the Bills, especially with the Bills coming off that awful loss. Since 2000, the Dolphins are 16-26 ATS before playing their archrival the New England Patriots. Furthermore, since 2002, divisional home favorites are a ridiculous 15-48 ATS before being divisional dogs.

Going off that, teams are 43-85 ATS since 2002 before being double digit divisional dogs, including 7-21 ATS as favorites and 1-7 ATS as divisional home favorites before being double digit divisional dogs. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 9-18 ATS. On top of that, because the Bills will be favorites next week, they are dogs before being favorites, a spot teams are 108-67 ATS in since 2011, including 118-61 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Combining the last few trends, divisional home favorites are 4-27 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road dogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Look at Indianapolis’ near loss to the Colts a couple weeks back. They were in this exact same spot and barely beat the lowly Titans. If the Titans can almost beat the Colts, the Bills can definitely beat the Dolphins here.

One last note, the Dolphins have not been a good front running team over the last decade. I know they’ve had several coaching staffs and quarterbacks, but one thing always seems to remain the same, they struggle at home, especially as favorites and do well on the road, especially as dogs. Since 2004, they are 23-46 ATS at home, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites. This year, while they’ve covered 3 out of the 4 times as home dogs, they are just 1-2 ATS as home favorites. It might be different with a new coaching staff and quarterback, though there’s no evidence either way yet, but it’s worth noting and it’s not the biggest reason why I love the Bills this week. There are plenty of reasons and this is my pick of the week, as long as we’re getting 4 or more points with the Bills.

Public lean: Miami (60% range)

Sharps lean: BUF 12 MIA 2

Final thoughts: Sharps are all over the place this week, but it’s good to see that one of their few heavy leans is on the Bills, my pick of the week.

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Buffalo +4.5 (-110) 5 units

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Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, Commanders

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely than not that Robert Griffin plays. Normally, when a quarterback is a game time decision, he plays.

It’s only when a quarterback is ruled out in the week prior that he doesn’t play and this is such a huge game for the Redskins if they want to make the playoffs, I can’t see him sitting out. The fact that lines are already starting to trickle in is a good sign, especially since Washington is favored by 1 (they were favored by 2.5 a week ago). That suggests that the odds makers are fairly sure Griffin will play.

I’m going to make this pick as if I’m fairly sure Griffin will play, for that reason. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are just -13 in points differential and they rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.03. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. These teams are basically equal and if you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cleveland should be favored by those 2.5 points.

However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA. Washington ranks 10th in DVOA, which takes things into account things like strength of schedule, and 11th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th in regular and 20th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland is also in a bad spot as home dogs off a win as home favorites, a situation teams are 52-72 ATS in since 1989, the only trend that is relevant in this one.

Furthermore, I just don’t want to bet against Griffin right now and I don’t think the Browns are ready to win straight up against a team like the Redskins yet. They’ve hung with some good teams, but they need to win straight up to cover here. It’s only a small play because of the uncertainty of Griffin and it would rank near the bottom in any confidence pools, but the Redskins are the pick.

Public lean: ?

Final update: Griffin was surprisingly ruled out today and Kirk Cousins will start tomorrow. This line is now Cleveland -2. I like betting on good teams starting backup quarterbacks as they tend to give 110% to compensate and opponents tend to overlook them. Remember the Steelers beating the Ravens with Charlie Batch?

The Browns also have bigger things to worry about as they have trips to Denver and Pittsburgh next on the agenda. Favorites are 35-72 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown dogs and 7-20 ATS before being touchdown dogs in two straight. Teams are also 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Redskins go to Philadelphia next week, when they should have Griffin back. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008.

It’d be a bigger play, but I feel like the 4.5 point line movement from last week (the Redskins were -2.5) is not enough to compensate for Griffin’s loss, especially considering the Browns looked pretty impressive last week, blowing out the Chiefs. Griffin might be the league’s most valuable player outside of Brady and Manning this year and the Redskins supporting cast isn’t very good. It’d be a big play at +4 or more, but not at +2. The Redskins should be the right side though.

Final update II: Now at +4, I like the Redskins a lot more.

Washington Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-110) 3 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by double digits. As a result, they are 11th in net points per drive at 0.25. They are also 14th in DVOA and 15th in weighted DVOA.

The Saints, meanwhile, rank 19th in net points per drive at -0.13. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to New Orleans’ side for home field, you get that the Buccaneers should be 1.5 point favorites here. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Saints rank 22nd, as well as 21st in weighted.

The Buccaneers may have lost last week, but they were in a really bad spot. They were in a sandwich game in between an emotional loss to the Broncos and this big divisional matchup. However, this week, the Saints are the one in that spot. Last week, they lost as dogs in New York against the Giants and next week, they have to go to Dallas, where they will be dogs. In between, they have this game, in which they are favored. Teams are 59-85 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Teams are 15-18 ATS in this spot as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is why I didn’t take the Eagles last week. I thought even if the Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles, they could still cover on pure talent. However, the Saints are favorites of less than a touchdown here this week and teams are 44-67 ATS in that spot. They might not overlook the Buccaneers, though, because it’s a divisional game sandwiched in between two non-divisional games. Teams are 12-17 ATS in that spot since 2008, 22-26 ATS since 2002, which isn’t much of a trend.

However, that trend does feed into one another. Teams are 32-55 ATS as favorites off back-to-back-to-back losses as dogs before being dogs since 1989. This is an extreme sandwich situation. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites, as they host the Rams next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs are 116-59 ATS since 2008. It’s also worth noting that teams are 30-17 ATS as dogs off a close (1-3 points) loss as touchdown favorites. The Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles last week in preparation for this game and they’ll be extra focused this week.

This would be a bigger play if this wasn’t a divisional matchup and if the Saints weren’t so good at home. They are 12-3 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, but only 3-3 ATS there this year without Sean Payton. I think we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, though I’m definitely glad to be getting more than a field goal.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-110) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Chicago Bears  (8-5)

I’ve called the Packers overrated before. This was because they were really banged up with injuries and as a result, they weren’t really playing as well as people thought they are. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, has also missed time. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who has sucked in the last two weeks in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews has also missed time, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and leaving them with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Charles Woodson has also missed time.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out for the year and Woodson has also missed time. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 healthy and playing near his 2010 level this year. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.8 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #11 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +7. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 7 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and the Lions twice. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins.

The Packers rank just 12th in net points per drive at 0.17, as a result. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 9th at 0.40. If you take the difference between those two figures, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that line should be Chicago -5. That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as the Bears rank 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Packers rank 5th and 7th respectively. Nothing in there says the Bears should be 3 point home dogs.

We’re getting significant line value with the Bears, especially since this line has moved significantly in the past week. This line was Chicago -1 last week and now it’s at Green Bay -3. In spite of this, the public is all over the Packers and I love fading the public, especially on heavy public leans and especially on heavy public leans after big line movements. Chicago being home dogs has put them in a good spot trends wise. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Going off that, home dogs are 55-32 ATS before being road favorites since 2002. The Bears go to Arizona next week.

The reason this line shifted 4 points in the past week is because the Bears lost in Minnesota. People assume that was because of the Bears’ injuries (more on those later) and that they can’t possibly compete with the Packers this week because of that. Well, I’m not so shocked the Bears lost in Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-1 there, including a win over the 49ers. Besides, the Bears’ defense wasn’t why they lost. Their defense really only gave up one good scoring drive. The other two touchdowns the Vikings scored were either on a pick six or directly off a long touchdown return. Their offense was why they lost, not their defense. Their offense has generally been solid this season, so I see that as a bit of a fluke.

All this being said, these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise. Clay Matthews is expected to return for the Packers, as is TJ Lang. Jordy Nelson and Charles Woodson are still out, so they’re not 100% yet, but I’ve said they could be very dangerous if they can be healthy and Matthews’ return is huge, even if he’ll be limited in his snap count. He’s really their only good pass rusher and I wouldn’t have given them much chance to take advantage of the Bears’ weak offensive line without him.

The Bears, meanwhile, are missing not just Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings, but they will also be without Henry Melton in this one. They didn’t seem to miss Urlacher and Jennings against Minnesota, but the Packers are a much better offense and Melton’s absence will also be huge. It’s also worth noting that the Bears have had a lot of issues beating teams of the Packers’ caliber this year. They are 1-5 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 4, including 1-5 SU. In other situations, they are 5-1-1 ATS and 7-0 SU.

At the end of the day, I think the Bears are the right side, but I’m not that confident in it. However, I love fading heavy public leans, especially after a big line shift for no real reason. Besides, every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. In order for that to happen, either the Seahawks or Bears have to win out and the Packers and 49ers have to lose once. This is the game the Packers are most likely to lose and like Seahawks/49ers next week, it will kill birds with one stone, if that is to happen once again. It’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

Public lean: Green Bay (80% range)

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3 (-110) 2 units

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Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4)

Before losing to the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight home wins, dating back to 2010. Given that, it’s kind of weird to see them as home dogs here. It’s also kind of funny to see how far this team has fallen in the last two weeks thanks to two losses. I had been saying they weren’t as good as their record all season, but the way the public has soured on this team in just 2 weeks is a little bit of an overreaction.

It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people have called them overrated so many times that we’ve forgotten they’re not a bad team. This line was Denver -1.5 a week ago and two weeks ago, they probably would have been favored. In spite of this, the public is pounding the Broncos. I love fading the public because the public always loses money in the long run.

Good teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Ravens are no exception. In fact, on the rare occasions they’ve lost two in a row in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, they’ve almost always covered in the following game. That’s happened just 4 times since the start of the 2008 season and they’ve covered in the following game at a record of 3-1 ATS. It’s obviously a very small sample size, but it’s important to note that this team has only twice lost 3 in a row since 2008 and never since weeks 4-6 of the 2009 season.

They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites as they are expected to be favored when the Giants come to town next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 17-6 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. That being said, when we go back to 2002 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 52-47 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites, which isn’t significant at all. There’s also a decent chance that, depending on what happens this week, they will actually be home dogs next week for a good Giants team. The early lines have them as favorites, but that might not hold up. While home dogs tend to cover before being home favorites, they are just 31-46 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again.

That’s kind of a theme for this game, uncertainty. I don’t really have a strong feel for this game as a result. The Ravens did win 16 in a row at home at one point, but they weren’t exactly blowing teams out and they weren’t exactly playing a tough schedule. This is demonstrated by the fact that the Ravens were just 7-8-1 ATS in those 16 games and they never once were home dogs like they are here.

They’re also in a very bad spot here off of a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-46 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 8-14 ATS as home dogs, as the Ravens are here. We are getting a tiny bit of line value with the Broncos, as the real line based off net points per drive is Denver -1, which holds up to DVOA. However, that’s pretty insignificant. I don’t have a real feel for this game, but gun to my head, the Broncos should be the right side, as long as the line doesn’t go above 3. If we get more than a field goal with the Ravens, I might have to take them. That’s how close this is. Put this last in any confidence pools.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans

Indianapolis Colts (9-4) at Houston Texans (11-2)

The Texans were calling last week’s game in New England their biggest game in franchise history and rightfully so. This is a very young franchise that has played just 2 playoff games in its history and going to New England as an 11-1 #1 seed in week 14 on Monday Night Football is almost as big as it gets. The Texans got destroyed, losing 42-14, which had to be demoralizing. Teams tend to struggle off a Monday Night Football blowout anyway. It’s just not enough time to regroup. Teams are 23-38 ATS since 2002 off a Monday Night Football of 17+, including 2-11 ATS in a divisional game off a road loss.

Meanwhile, for the Colts, this is their biggest game of the Andrew Luck era. The Texans are still the class of the AFC South and still are tied for the league’s best record at 11-2. Because of the Texans’ loss last week, the Colts now control their own destiny for the AFC South. Granted, to do that, they’d have to beat the Texans twice in three games, which seems very improbable, but don’t try to tell them that. This is a gigantic game for them. They’ll be extra focused as they don’t have anything to worry about next week, with only a trip to Kansas City on the schedule.

The Colts have the major trends advantage. I already mentioned the teams off a MNF blowout one, but there are more. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons. Going of that, double digits dogs, like the Colts are here, are 46-29 ATS since 2002 before being favorites, including 14-7 ATS as divisional double digit dogs before being non-divisional favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 39-16 ATS. Also since 1989, teams are 16-7 ATS as double digit dogs before being away favorites, which the Colts will be in Kansas City next week.

All that being said, I still feel the Colts are overrated. Of their 9 wins, only 1 has come by more than a touchdown. Meanwhile, 3 of their 4 losses have come by 20 or more. As a result, they have a -37 points differential that is significantly worse than their 9-4 record. For reference, the 5-8 Dolphins are at -36. They’ve also played a joke schedule. They are playing a last place schedule in the weaker of the two conferences. They play in arguably the worst division in football and they have yet to play Houston, the only other competent team in their division, thanks to a scheduling quirk. They have had to face the tough NFC North, but also the crappy AFC East, which is probably the 2nd worst division in the NFL, so that kind of balances out.

As a result of this, they rank 22nd in net points per drive at -0.30 and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which take things like schedule into account. They rank 28th and 26th respectively in those two statistics. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 6th in net points per drive at 0.55. In DVOA, they are also worse than they are in net points per drive. After all, they haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule either. They rank 8th in both.

We can safely say that any real line computed from net points per drive will hold up to DVOA. If we take the difference between these two teams’ net points per drives and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team) and add 2.5 points for home field advantage, we get a real line of Houston -12. That means we have line value with the Texans, before even taking into account that Houston has had the slightly tougher schedule, playing a 1st place schedule, instead of a last place schedule.

In spite of this, the public is still on the Colts, which makes them a public underdog. I love fading the public every chance I get, but I especially love fading them when they back a dog. The public always loses money in the long run. Despite the fact that the Colts are publicly backed, this line, which looks weird if you only consider records, is getting even bigger. It opened around 8 or 8.5 and now it’s at 10. That’s reverse line action and is normally the sign of a trap line. Trap lines are much more common when the public is on a favorite, but in theory it can happen when the public is on a dog.

I think the odds makers have known the Colts are overrated for a long time. They’re not stupid. They know all the net points per drive stuff and all this stuff I mention. That’s why they were +9.5 in New England, where they got blown out as public dogs. That’s why they opened -3 for the Bills at home and then dropped down to -2.5 even though the public was all over the Colts. They easily could have lost that game if not for a special teams touchdown and even a 7 point home win over the Bills is nothing to brag about.

The following week, we had a similar situation to the one here, with the Colts being a public dog and the line moving in the opposite direction as they opened as 5 point dogs against a 4-win Detroit team, but ended up being 7 point dogs when the lines closed, in spite of all the public action on the Colts. And they were down 12 in that game to the crappy Lions, before mounting an improbable comeback. Last week, they opened as 5.5 home favorites against the crappy Titans. That went down to 4.5 before the end of the week even though the Colts were the most heavily backed public team of the week and the Colts did not cover, beating the crappy Titans by just 4 and even trailing by multiple scores early in the game.

All the trends say the Colts are the right side, but I just can’t take them. They’ve only beaten one good team all season, the Packers in that ChuckStrong game early in the season and that was at home. They’ve gotten blown out by the only two good teams they’ve faced on the road, losing by 20 in Chicago and 35 in New England.

They really struggle on the road in general, with only 3 road wins against the crappy Jaguars, the crappy Lions, after a huge comeback, and the crappy Titans, in overtime by 6. Meanwhile, they’ve lost by 20 in Chicago, 35 in New England, even the freaking Jets blew them out by 26. I really don’t think they can hang with the Texans on the road. Even with all the trends in their favor, this looks like a blowout waiting to happen and the odds makers actions support that. They’re certainly expecting a blowout and they’re not a bad group of people to have agree with you. I can’t put a big play on the Texans, but they should be the right side.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

Houston Texans 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against spread: Houston -10 (-110) 2 units

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