2012 NFL Season Previews

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Buccaneers

Offense

In 2010, the Buccaneers were a 10 win team that didn’t deserve to win 10 games. They only played 6 games against teams who finished .500 or better and only beat one of them, beating the Saints week 17 when the Saints were resting their starters in the 2nd half. They beat up on bad teams, going 9-1 against sub .500 teams. Their Pythagorean Expectation, meanwhile, was just 8.66 wins, 1.34 games fewer than their actual total. They also only turned the ball over 19 times, which historically is unsustainable.

There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. Of those 36 teams, only two either had the same amount or fewer the next year. Those two teams were both the Colts. The Colts also were the only team to have 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times so they look like an outlier. That’s makes sense since they had one of the most consistent quarterbacks of the decade. If you take out Indianapolis’ 5 times, the increase in turnovers jumps to 10.97 and decrease in wins jumps to 3.19.

In 2011, they predictably declining, winning just 4 games. They played 11 teams who finished .500 or better and went just 2-9 in those games. They were actually 4-2 at one point and led the division after beating the Saints, but they finished the season losing 10 straight games. Their turnover total also regressed more than could be expected, as they turned the ball over a league leading 40 times. Fortunately for them, like teams with low turnover totals, teams with high turnover totals normally regress back to the mean in the following season.

The 42 teams who have had 35 or more turnovers since 2002 have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 averaged by the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers the year before. If that doesn’t prove that turnovers are unpredictable on a yearly basis, I don’t know what does. Those 42 teams have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and won 1.61 more games. It’s not as significant of a difference in wins as it is with teams with fewer than 20 turnovers, but it’s still notable.

Meanwhile, they also had a -16 turnover differential. Teams with turnover differentials of -15 or worse since 2002 have had a differential 19.3 points better in their next season and won 2.58 more games. Further proving that takeaways and turnovers vary on a yearly basis is the fact that the teams with differentials higher than +15 and teams with differential lower than -15 have almost the same differential in their next season, a difference of .7.

As they were a 10 win team that didn’t deserve to win 10 games in 2010, last year, they were a 4 win team that deserved to win more than 4 games. In actuality, they’re somewhere in between a 4 win and a 10 win team. They should be improved this season, over last season. They were very aggressive this offseason, signing 3 free agents to big time deals (Eric Wright, Carl Nicks, and Vincent Jackson) and moving up to select 3 guys in the first 2 rounds who could start for them.

They also got rid of lame duck Head Coach Raheem Morris. Morris was a terrible disciplinarian and this team was out of control last season. Their players had terrible work ethic and they were incredibly undisciplined on the field. For example, LeGarrette Blount was often late to practice, so they got him a personal driver. Once he stopped using the personal driver, he once again was frequently late for practice. He also really struggled to learn the playbook and made no effort to improve as a pass catcher or pass protector.

Mike Williams, meanwhile, would fall asleep in team meetings, partied too much, and put in very little effort to stay in shape. On the field, they missed more tackles than any team since the stat started being kept, leading to them ranking dead last in yards per play allowed. Greg Schiano is the new Head Coach and will attempt to change the culture of the team. It can’t get worse.

Quarterback

No single player’s statistics better sum up what happened in the last 2 years for the Buccaneers than quarterback Josh Freeman. In 2010, he completed 61.4% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA, and 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. However, last year, while he completion percentage improved slightly, he averaged just 6.5 YPA, and threw 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions. His interception rate went from incredibly low (1.3%) to incredibly high (4.0%) and he became much more conservative and threw deep much less often. In 474 attempts in 2010, he threw deep 72 times (15.2%), as opposed to 36 times on 551 throws last season (6.5%).

The former, his interception rate, should regress back down to the norm. I already went into how turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis in the intro. He won’t throw an interception on 4% of his throws this season, though he won’t through one on 1.3% either. He’ll be somewhere in the middle. As for the latter, his unwillingness to throw deep, I don’t know what’s up with that.

An improved supporting cast, however, should help with that. In fact, they’ll help him in general. Advanced statistics show that Freeman was actually better than his stats would have shown last year. In terms of accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes), he ranked 10th out of 35, out of all quarterbacks who played 50% of their snaps, by being accurate on 73.6% of attempts.

His adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) was 22nd out of 35 eligible quarterbacks with an 80.55 rating, good for a solid 6 point increase over his regular QB rating. For reference, his regular QB rating ranked 27th. He won’t be as good as he was in 2010, but he won’t be as bad as in 2011.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Freeman will be helped out with several upgrades in each level of his offensive supporting cast. In the receiving corps, the Buccaneers signed Vincent Jackson. They definitely overpaid him, giving him 5 years, 55 million, especially since he’s already 29 and will soon begin to decline. Wide receivers are major wild cards when switching teams, especially when they switch teams from one with a superior quarterback to one with an inferior quarterback. Jackson may also become complacent now that he’s finally been paid. This is a guy who has trying to get paid for years, holding out most of the 2010 season and even contemplating holding up the lockout to ensure he could be paid.

That being said, he’ll be definitely an upgrade in the starting lineup over Arrelious Benn and he’s still in the prime of his career, albeit the tail end of it. Last season, he caught 60 passes for 1106 yards and 9 touchdowns. No receiver was hit deeper per catch last year, averaging 14.8 yards per catch in the air. Some of that is Philip Rivers, but some of that is also Jackson’s ability as a deep threat, which will help Josh Freeman.

Jackson’s presence will also make life easier for Mike Williams and it could also motivate Williams to get his act together. Remember, this guy caught 65 passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns as a mere rookie in 2010. A new coaching staff will also help Williams as Williams just did whatever he wanted to do under the lack of discipline that existed under the old regime. Greg Schiano could help straighten him out.

Of course, if Williams continues to struggle, he could be pushed for his starting job. The player who could take it is Preston Parker, who caught 40 passes for 554 yards and 3 touchdowns last year as the slot receiver. He’s a talented player who Josh Freeman raved about this offseason. He should be fully capable of being a starter if the Buccaneers replace Williams with him.

Parker will be involved more in the offense regardless of whether or not he starts as the Buccaneers have gotten rid of tight end Kellen Winslow. With Winslow, who got 114 targets last year (4th in the regular season at his position), gone, Parker will get more targets over the middle. This could make the Buccaneers’ offense more efficient as 9 of Freeman’s interceptions were on passes to Winslow, tied for most in the league to a single player at any position. Winslow’s QB rating when thrown to was the worst in the league, 58.1, though some of that is Freeman’s fault. On top of that, Winslow was near of the bottom of his position with just 3.4 YAC per catch.

Winslow was also a terrible run blocker. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Luke Stocker, a 2011 4th round pick. Stocker isn’t much of a receiver, but he’s a great run blocker and Parker’s abilities will help cancel out the loss of Winslow as a pass catcher, in addition to making them more efficient. The Buccaneers also signed Dallas Clark to be the “move” tight end, but, at age 33, he doesn’t have much left in the tank. He caught just 34 passes for 352 yards and 2 touchdowns last year and he’s missed 15 games over the last 2 seasons.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Freeman will also be able to get more receiving production from his running backs this season. LeGarrette Blount is an awful pass catcher and has put in minimal effort to get any better, so the Buccaneers traded back up into the end of the 1st round to grab Doug Martin, who is a great pass catcher and pass blocker. He’ll also be a key part of what’s going to be a more run heavy offense this year, which will make life easier for Freeman. Last year, they passed on 63.0% of their plays, one of the highest rates in the league. In 2010, that number was 53.4% and their offense seems to be better off when they run more.

Martin will play almost all of the passing downs and could get a large percentage of the snaps on running downs, though I wouldn’t surprise me at all if Blount continued to get the majority of the snaps on running downs. Blount isn’t much of a pass catcher, but he’s still a fairly good runner, averaging 4.6 YPC in his career.

Martin’s presence could also motivate Blount to get his act together. In 2010, he averaged 5.0 YPC, as opposed to 4.2 YPC last season. The new coaching staff will also help. Plus, you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), and Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter.

Those guys all had career years, or close to career years in the season after their team used a high pick on a running back. Between Martin and Blount, the Buccaneers will run the ball well this season and they’ll run the ball often. Both of those things will make life easier for Freeman, as will Martin’s abilities as a pass catcher.

Grade: B+

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Offensive Line

The Buccaneers’ offensive line was also a problem in 2011. They ranked 22nd in pass blocking efficiency and 18th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus. Josh Freeman was pressured on 33.6% of his snaps, 14th out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. However, he showed very good pocket presence, only taking a sack of 14.2% of his pressured snaps, 5th best in the league. He also ranked 9th with a 62.9% accuracy percentage under pressure, though he did throw 2 touchdowns to 7 interceptions under pressure.

As the Buccaneers upgraded two wide receiver spots by bringing in Vincent Jackson, and two running back spots by bringing in Doug Martin, they also upgraded two offensive line spots by bringing in Carl Nicks. Nicks will start at left guard and move Jeremy Zuttah to center. Zuttah hasn’t played center in the NFL much before, but he’s a solid player who should be an upgrade over Jeff Faine, who was awful, ranking 30th out of 35 centers on ProFootballFocus last year.

At left guard last year, Zuttah played alright, with an average 0.7 rating on ProFootballFocus. He run and pass blocked well, but committed 9 penalties. Penalties were an issue everywhere for the Buccaneers as they committed the 4th most penalties in the league, 123. While Zuttah will be an upgrade at center over Faine, Carl Nicks will be an upgrade at left guard over Zuttah.

Nicks comes over from the Saints and is one of the league’s premier guards. He’s been a top-3 guard on ProFootballFocus for the last 3 years, the only one at his position who can say that. In fact, Nick Mangold, Trent Cole, and Justin Smith are the only ones at ANY position who can say that. Last season, he ranked 2nd with a 28.4 rating.

Opposite him is an almost equally paid player, Davin Joseph, but he’s not nearly as good. Joseph ranked 54th at his position last year, which is actually a lot better than the 72nd he ranked the year before. For some reason, the Buccaneers gave him 7 years, 53 million after his horrid 2010 season. He’s a decent pass protector, but a terrible run blocker and, at best, he’s a below average starter at right guard.

At tackle, things aren’t much better. Left tackle Donald Penn is a solid player, whose 5.4 rating ranked 17th at his position last season. He’s a better run blocker than pass protector, however, and allowed 9 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures, while allowing 7 penalties. Opposite him, Jeremy Trueblood only allowed 4 sacks and 5 quarterback hits, but a league leading 50 quarterback pressures. He didn’t run block well either and was penalized 7 times. He ranked 66th at his position among 73 players.

Thanks to some offseason moves, the Buccaneers now have 3 average or better starters on their offensive line and have upgraded two positions. The right side of the line isn’t very good, but overall, this is a decent group. With an upgraded receiving corps and running back group, and a greater emphasis on the run, things will be easier for Josh Freeman, who should have a more efficient year. They should have much fewer turnovers, which should help them improve on an offense that was 27th in the league with 17.9 points per game. In 2010, they ranked 20th with 21.3 points per game. They’ll be closer to that in 2012.

Grade: B

Defense

While the offense won’t be much of a problem, the defense will be. Last year, they led the league in yards per play allowed and points per game allowed, allowing 30.9 points per game. If they turn the ball over less and run more, their defense will be on the field less, which will help. A full season from Gerald McCoy at defensive tackle will help, as will a coaching staff is going to bring much needed discipline to a defense that led the league in missed tackles, setting an all-time record. Still, 2010’s 9th ranked defense, which allowed 19.9 points per game, seems well out of reach.

Defensive Line

I’ve mentioned Gerald McCoy. If he can stay healthy, it will be a huge boost to the Buccaneers’ defense. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers.

However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season. As a mere rookie, he ranked 18th at his position on ProFootballFocus in 2010 and last year, in an injured shortened year, he finished with an above average 5.5 rating. In his absence, players like Roy Miller and Frank Olam had to play way too much. Both were awful, especially Miller, who ranked 84th out of 89 defensive tackles.

Another player who played very poorly was Brian Price. Price ranked one spot better than Miller, ranking 83th out of 89 defensive tackles. Price was a 2nd round pick in 2010, but he’s struggled through a variety of things in 2 years in the NFL. He’s battled weight issues and injury problems and was ejected by Head Coach Raheem Morris after a penalty last year.

He’s also had off the field distractions, most recently with his sister’s death in a car accident, after which Price had to be hospitalized for grief and exhaustion. Price lost two brothers earlier in his life as well. Football is clearly not the first thing on his mind and you can’t really blame him. Price was traded this offseason after starting a fight with Mark Barron in practice, a smart move that will help Schiano set a more disciplinary tone in the locker room.

He won’t really be missed. He didn’t play well last year and the Buccaneers signed Amobi Okoye, who will start in Price’s absence. Okoye was a bust in Houston, but played pretty well in a situatioaln role in Chicago last year. Gary Gibson, ProFootballFocus’ 16th ranked defensive tackle last year, will also provide depth so they definitely have adequate depth this time around, should something happen to one of the starters. And if nothing happens to McCoy, that would definitely be for the best.

Outside, the Buccaneers don’t have as much depth. 2011 2nd round pick Da’Quan Bowers has torn his Achilles and is expected to miss the entire season. Michael Bennett, one of the league’s most underrated players, will play a bigger role in the absence of Bowers, who was actually only 3rd on the team at his position in snaps played. However, behind Bennett and the opposite end, Adrian Clayborn, the Buccaneers don’t have another depth defensive end. Jayme Mitchell was signed this offseason, but he was absolutely awful in Cleveland last year, ranking dead last at his position.

Fortunately, both Bennett and Clayborn are very good players. Bennett ranked 8th at his position, 3rd against the run, in what was a breakout 3rd season for him. He’s very good as a run stuffer, but provided surprising production as a pass rusher as well, with 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 336 pass rush snaps, good for a 11.3% pass rush rate. We’ll have to see how he handles a transition to an every down role, but he has a bright future.

Clayborn, meanwhile, had a strong year after being selected 20th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. Clayborn struggled against the run, but he had 8 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures on 434 pass rush snaps, good for a 11.5% pass rush rate. He could be even better in his 2nd season in the league. He will have to improve against the run though. Still, the Buccaneers actually have a pretty good defensive line. It’s the back 7 that’s a complete mess.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Their linebackers will be better in 2012 than in 2011, but only by default. Mason Foster, Geno Hayes, and Quincy Black had ratings of -20.6, -12.0, and -20.9 respectively. Foster ranked dead last among middle linebackers, while Hayes and Black ranked 37th and 42th respectively among 42 3-4 outside linebackers.

Hayes has been replaced, but by a mere 2nd round rookie. Lavonte David will probably be an upgrade, but it’s unfair to expect much from him right away. Foster, meanwhile, was just a 3rd round rookie last year, so he could bounce back, but it’s hardly a sure thing. 3rd round picks only turn into starters about 30% of the time so it’s possible he’ll just never turn it around. He was truly awful last season.

Black was truly awful as well and he’ll return as a starter, by virtue of the ridiculous 5 year, 29 million dollar deal he was given after the 2010 season. He could be pushed by Dekoda Watson, their top reserve who has played pretty well in limited snaps in 2 years in the league, especially when you compare him to their other linebackers. He deserves a starting job, but he won’t get one because of Black’s salary. I suppose he could push Foster as well, as could Adam Hayward, who struggled in limited action last season.

Grade: C

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Secondary

Aqib Talib is a good player, but everyone else in their secondary is terrible. On top of that, Talib could be suspended, even though his assault with a deadly weapon case was thrown out. Talib allowed 28 completions on 51 attempts (54.9%) for 479 yards (9.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties. He obviously needs to avoid allowing the big play so often. A lot of his tendency to giving up the big play can be tied to the fact that he allowed 6.2 YAC per catch last season, worst in the league. He was better in 2010, allowing 35 completions for 59 yards (59.3%) for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties.

Aside from him though, everyone else is terrible. Ronde Barber was the opposite starter last year. He turned 37 this offseason and it shows. His play on the field was terrible last season. Only one cornerback had a rating lower than his -20.3 rating. He’ll move to free safety this season, but could still play nickel cornerback on passing downs. The reason for this is because incumbent nickel cornerback EJ Biggers is terrible. He actually ranked 94th out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus, only a little bit better than Barber. Barber won’t be much of an upgrade on him on the slot and probably won’t play very well at free safety either. If Barber moves to the slot in sub packages, Cody Grimm or Ahmad Black would play safety. Both of them are very inexperienced. As you can see, things are very bleak in the secondary.

The reason Barber has the freedom to move to the slot or to safety is because the Buccaneers signed Eric Wright this offseason. Apparently having two bottom 6 cornerbacks wasn’t enough for the Buccaneers so they signed Wright, who ranked 93rd out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus. You tell me how this deserves a 5 year, 38 million dollar deal, in what was one of the offseason’s most head scratching moves. Wright made things worse by getting arrested for DUI, though the charges were dropped so he’s very unlikely to draw a suspension.

The last starter in the secondary is Mark Barron, the 7th overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft. Barron is a good player, but was not worth a top-10 pick. He was reached for out of need and out of lack of depth at the safety position in the draft. He should be solid as a rookie, but expecting an Eric Berry type rookie year from him based solely on his draft position is ridiculous because he’s not as good as Berry.

The Buccaneers will once again struggle to stop opponent’s passing attacks and they should struggle once again the stop opponent’s offenses overall. They have a solid defensive line, especially if Gerald McCoy can stay healthy and they probably won’t miss quite as many tackles as last season. On top of that, they’ll have a little bit of an easier schedule and commit fewer turnovers and run more offensively, which means their defense won’t be on the field as much. However, their back 7, while upgraded slightly over last year’s absolutely miserable bunch, is still really bad.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Greg Schiano was a surprise hire for the Head Coaching job and he was reportedly pretty far down on their list, but they were actually rejected by several coaches higher up on the list than him. However, he’ll be an obvious upgrade, even if only by default, over Morris, who completely lost the team last season. He’s a disciplinarian who will run more, two things this team needs. He also did a very solid job at Rutgers, coaching there for 11 years, posting a 68-67 record with a program that is hardly a national powerhouse, and he commanded the respect of his players. His only NFL experience is as a defensive backs coach in Chicago in 1998. We’ll see how he does in the NFL as a Head Coach, but I’m optimistic.

Grade: C+

Overall

This team will be improved over last season, in fact, quite noticeably. They added a lot of offensive talent this offseason. They got rid of Raheem Morris, who completely lost the players. They won’t turn the ball over as much, according to history. They won’t be the 10 win team they were in 2010, when they didn’t deserve to win 10 games, and I can’t put them in the playoffs in the tougher NFC and in arguably the toughest division in football,  because they are 3-14 in the last 2 years against teams with a .500 or better record. However, they could definitely approach .500.

In the division, I think New Orleans, Atlanta, and Carolina are all better than them, but two of those teams, New Orleans and Atlanta, are pretty poor on the road. They beat both of them last season. They should go 2-4 or so in the division. Outside the division, they host Washington, Kansas City, San Diego, Philadelphia, and St. Louis. I have 4 of those teams in the playoffs, but they’re at home, so Tampa Bay should still go 2-3. On the road, they go to New York to play the Giants, Dallas, Minnesota, Oakland, and Denver. Minnesota and Oakland are easy games and the other 3 aren’t that tough, so there should be 2 wins in there as well. They play 6 teams who I think will finish worse than .500. 6 or 7 wins seems about right.

Projection: 7-9 4th in NFC South

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Carolina Panthers 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Panthers

Offense

Think the Panthers made the right selection with the 1st overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft? After scoring 12.3 points per game in 2010, fewest in the league by 4.6 points per game, the Panthers scored 25.4 points per game last year, which was tied for 5th most in the NFL. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton set the record for, among other things, rookie passing yards in a game (twice, in consecutive weeks), rookie passing yards in a season, and rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. Not bad for someone widely considered a project.

Newton also contributed in a big way on the ground and opened things up for running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, helping lead the Panthers to a league leading 5.4 YPC. He resurrected Steve Smith from the dead, as the 32-year-old caught 79 passes for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, after just 46 catches for 554 yards and 2 touchdowns the year before. He also made a pedestrian offensive line look better than they were by taking a sack on just 16.8% of pressured snaps. If he can avoid a sophomore slump, the Panthers should have one of the league’s best offenses again this season.

Quarterback

A closer look at Newton’s stats shows that his production was worse in the 2nd half of the season than in the 1st. In the 1st half of the season, he completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, as opposed to 59.1% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in the 2nd half of the season. That could be a sign of an upcoming sophomore slump. He also didn’t surpass 200 yards in any of his last 3 games. Overall, Newton completed 60.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions.

One area of Newton’s game that didn’t decline in the 2nd half was his rushing ability. In the first half of the season, he rushed for 319 yards and 7 touchdowns and, in the 2nd half, he rushed for 387 yards and 7 touchdowns. Newton led all quarterbacks in carries with 126, 38th in the league overall. However, he’ll probably run a little bit less this season, just to improve his longevity.

Newton also rushed for 14 touchdowns last season, the most of any quarterback ever. That’s not going to be replicable this season. The all-time leader in career rushing touchdowns for a quarterback is Steve Young with 43 and he maxed out at 7 in a season. Williams and Stewart, who combined for just 11 touchdowns last year, should get more touchdowns, as could Newton in terms of passing touchdowns, provided he doesn’t go into a sophomore slump.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

As I’ve mentioned, Newton’s rushing abilities open things up for Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams on the ground, because the defense’s front 7 is forced to focus on Newton’s ability to take off and run. This is much the same way Tim Tebow opened things up for Willis McGahee, Michael Vick for LeSean McCoy, and Vince Young for Chris Johnson (once upon a time). Newton’s own rushing abilities (706 yards and 14 touchdowns) also add to the Panthers’ prowess on the ground. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that they have two very talented backs who could start on at least half the teams in the league.

Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last year, allowing the Panthers to lead the league in that category. Their fantasy upside and statistical production is limited by the presence of the other and Newton stealing some carries, but Stewart rushed for 761 yards and 4 touchdowns on 142 carries, while Williams rushed for 836 yards and 7 touchdowns on 155 carries.

With Newton, Stewart, and Williams essentially splitting carries, it limits their individual statistical upside, but makes each more efficient and their ground game more deadly overall. Newton will score fewer touchdowns and probably run less overall, so Stewart and Williams could see a slight improvement in statistical production this year, particularly in terms of touchdowns, which is worth noting for fantasy leagues.

Stewart is also one of the team’s best pass catchers with 47 catches for 413 yards last year. In addition, the Panthers signed Mike Tolbert as added insurance at running back and to serve as a pass catching fullback on passing downs. The 245 pound Tolbert has a fullback’s build and caught 54 passes for 433 yards in San Diego last year.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

It’s a good thing that the Panthers have good pass catching backs because they are pretty thin at wide receiver. Steve Smith had an improbable career resurgence at age 32 last year, catching 79 passes for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, exceeding his previous year’s totals by 33 catches, 840 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Getting rid of the noodle armed Jimmy Clausen as his quarterback and getting a quarterback who could actually hit him deep definitely helped, but now, at age 33, it’s fair to question how much longer he can keep this going. Even elite receivers aren’t elite much past age 33 or 34.

Of the 11 receivers who have played in the last decade and finished in the top-20 in receiving, 9 had a 1000 yard season at age 33 or older, 8 had a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older 6 had a 1000 yard season at age 35 or older, 2 had a 1000 yard season at age 36 or older, and only Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season after age 37.

The average age of a final 1000 yard season is 34.5. In 21 total combined seasons after their last 1000 yard season, they combined for 1003 catches (47.8 per season) for 12476 yards (594.1 per season) and 70 touchdowns (3.3 per season). Of the 11, 9 played at age 34 or older, 8 played at age 36 or older, 6 played at age 37 or older, 2 played at age 38 or older, and only Jerry Rice played after age 38. The average age of a final season is 36.5.

The point, even great receivers don’t play well into their mid 30s. Even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. And as far as top 20 receivers go, Steve Smith is probably below average.

Smith will probably retire as a top-20 receiver all time, but, currently 1626 yards shy of 20th place Michael Irvin and 3104 yards shy of 10th place Torry Holt, it’s unrealistic to expect him to finish his career too far into that group. He’ll probably finish in the mid to late teens, in terms of receiving yards rank all-time. Smith’s abilities could fall off a cliff at any point in the next 3 seasons and his inevitable decline is likely to begin this season.

Unfortunately for the Panthers, they don’t have much behind him. Brandon LaFell, a 2010 3rd round pick, will start opposite Smith. The 3rd year is normally the breakout year for receivers, but I wouldn’t expect too much from LaFell. He’s a pretty marginal talent. There’s a reason he fell to the 3rd round and he hasn’t done much in 2 seasons to prove he didn’t deserve to go as low as the 3rd round. Last year was the better of his 2 seasons, as he caught 36 balls for 613 yards and 3 touchdowns and he has totaled just 74 catches for 1081 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 seasons in the NFL so far.

Behind him on the depth chart, the Panthers have David Gettis. Gettis showed some promise as a 6th round rookie in 2010, with 37 catches for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he missed all of last season with a torn ACL and he isn’t fully healthy yet. He could be pushed for the #3 receiver job by Louis Murphy, if he misses too much of Training Camp. Murphy, recently acquired from the Raiders, has 90 catches for 1371 yards and 6 touchdowns in 3 career seasons, but he has his own injury problems, missing 7 games in the last 2 seasons, including 5 last year. Joe Adams, meanwhile, is a 4th round pick rookie who will have most of, if not all of his impact purely on special teams this year.

They’ve got some alright players on the depth chart behind Smith, but they don’t have another impact player should Smith slip up and they don’t even have another above average starter. To combat this, the Panthers plan to use many two-tight end sets, like they did last year. I also already mentioned that their backs can produce some in the passing game.

Tight end Greg Olsen is a solid pass catcher, who caught 45 passes for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. He could see an increase in those numbers with Jeremy Shockey gone. In Shockey’s absence, Gary Barnidge, who the Panthers are very high on, will be the #2 tight end. He’s incredibly unproven and missed all of last season with a broken ankle. The Panthers have not ruled out bringing back Shockey, who caught 37 passes for 455 yards and 4 touchdowns last year, though heading into his age 32 season, his best days are behind him. None of their tight ends are very good blockers either. Ben Hartsock was their blocking specialist last year and should remain that, but he barely plays.

After Smith, the Panthers don’t really have an impact receiver, so it will be very bad if his abilities fell off a cliff and it will also hurt them if his abilities predictably decline slightly. They’ll use a lot of two-tight end sets and pass to the backs to compensate, but, even there, they don’t have another impact receiver. Besides, Cam Newton’s arm strength is best utilized in a downfield offense and an offense that relies heavily on tight ends and running backs in the passing game is not a downfield one. For this reason, along with his 2nd half decline last year, I predict a slight sophomore slump from Newton and the rest of this offense.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

One aspect that Cam Newton also helped was the Panthers’ offensive line, as you can expect out of a mobile quarterback. Newton showed great pocket presence, taking just 35 sacks on the season, despite being pressured on 34.4% of his snaps, 6th highest in the league among quarterbacks who played 50% or more of their team’s snaps. He only took a sack on 16.8% of his pressured snaps, 15th out of 24 eligible quarterbacks. The Panthers’ offensive line ranked 20th in the league in pass blocking efficiency, though, as you could expect, they ranked 4th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus.

Left tackle Jordan Gross turned in another fine season, ranking 10th at his position on ProFootballFocus. He was a solid pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties and run blocking very well. Heading into his age 32 season, however, his best years are behind him. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Panthers used a high pick on an offensive tackle in the 2013 NFL Draft and moved Gross to right tackle, in his age 33 season in 2013.

Another reason they could use a pick on an offensive tackle in 2013 is because their right tackle position sucks. Any early pick could spend a year or two at right tackle, before moving to left tackle in 2014 or 2015. Jeff Otah was once a solid starting right tackle. However, he missed every game except 4 in the last 2 seasons and, according Panthers’ beat writers, the organization thought he was “soft” and questioned his commitment to football. The Panthers sent him to the Jets for a conditional late round pick this offseason.

That may prove to be a mistake because Otah, still only 26, could get his act together in New York and be a solid starting right tackle once more. Meanwhile, in his absence over the last two years, the Panthers have gotten very poor play from the right tackle position, so they shouldn’t have given up on Otah so soon. Gary Williams, now no longer with the team, was awful at the spot in 2010 and Byron Bell was even worse last season.

Bell made 12 starts and allowed 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures, while committing 12 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. He ranked 62th among 73 offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus last year and was even worse, 68th, as a run blocker. He’s expected to be the starter at right tackle again this season, though Bruce Campbell, who the team acquired from Oakland, could challenge him in camp. He probably won’t win though. The highly athletic 2010 4th round pick has played just 19 snaps in 2 seasons and has not yet begun to remotely reasonable a competent offensive lineman.

Things are better on the interior of the offensive line. Geoff Hangartner played pretty well at right guard last year. He was better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, but decent in both aspects, and only committed 2 penalties. He allowed 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures and his 1.2 rating on ProFootballFocus was pretty average.

Next to him, center Ryan Kalil is one of the best centers in the league. He’s been a top-8 center on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Nick Mangold and Chris Myers can also say. Last year, he ranked 8th with an 8.2 rating, run blocking and pass protecting well. He allowed 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures, and committed just 4 penalties.

Left guard could be a problem. 2nd round rookie Amini Silatolu will compete with veteran Mike Pollak for the starting job. Pollak has been a pretty mediocre offensive lineman for the Colts over the past couple years. Silatolu, meanwhile, is unproven. However, while they don’t have a great offensive line, Cam Newton makes them look better than they are as pass protectors and they’re great as run blockers, helping what was the league’s top run offense last year. They should be near the top in that category again this season.

My one concern with their offense is a sophomore slump from Cam Newton. Newton won’t be helped by a thin receiving corps, headlined by an aging Steve Smith. I’m not saying Newton will suck or anything, but he led a top-5 offense last year in terms of scoring. I don’t know if that will happen again this season.

Grade: B

Defense

If the Panthers are going to take the next step as a team, they’ll have to play better defensively. The Panthers surrendered more points per game than they allowed last year, ranking 27th overall in points per game allowed, with 26.8 points per game allowed. This is nothing new for them. In 2010, they ranked 26th overall in points per game allowed, allowing 25.5 per. They used their 9th overall pick on linebacker Luke Kuechly and get two other linebackers, Jon Beason and Thomas Davis, back from injury, but they should still struggle to get pressure on the opposing quarterback and to cover opponent’s receivers. That will really hurt their ability to be even a decent defense.

There were some rumblings this offseason that they would switch from the 4-3 they ran last season, to the 3-4 that Head Coach Ron Rivera has his background in. However, they will not be doing so. Ron Rivera is a smart coach who knows his personnel would not fit a 3-4 defense well, so he adapts and will make due once again with a 4-3.

The Panthers have three talented and high paid linebackers in Luke Kuechly, James Anderson, and Jon Beason, and one experienced (and highly paid) backup in Thomas Davis. However, none of those players could play 3-4 outside linebacker because they aren’t good pass rushers. They would all have to play 3-4 middle linebacker, which would create a huge logjam and leave one talented and highly paid linebacker without a starting job and leave Davis without a role at all.

On top of that, their top pass rusher, Charles Johnson, also a very highly paid player, would not fit a 3-4 well at all at 6-2 275. They don’t really have another proven pass rusher so switching to a scheme that their only good pass rusher wouldn’t fit wouldn’t make any sense. Greg Hardy, the opposite defensive end, would fit better as a five technique than a rush linebacker at 6-4 300, while defensive tackles Ron Edwards and Sione Fua would be fits as nose tackles, leaving Terrell McClain to be the other five technique.

However, this would leave the Panthers without another player to play opposite Charles Johnson at outside linebacker. Either nickel rusher Antawn Applewhite, inexperienced players Eric Norwood and Thomas Keiser, or 4th round rookie Frank Alexander would have to be the other rush linebacker. Alexander is the most talented pass rusher of that group, but he, like Johnson, is not a good fit for a 3-4 at 6-4 271. It’s a good thing this won’t be happening, at least not in 2012.

Defensive Line

I’ve already mentioned Charles Johnson extensively. He’s their best pass rusher. He wasn’t quite as good last season as his breakout year in 2010, when he ranked 2nd at his position on ProFootballFocus, and you can argue that he’s slightly overpaid at 6 years, 76 million. However, he did play very well again last season, ranking 17th at his position, rushing the passer well and stopping the run pretty well as well. On 433 pass rush snaps, he had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, good for a 11.1% pass rush rate.

Opposite him, Greg Hardy only managed 4 sacks, but that’s not the whole story. He also had 8 quarterback hits and 33 quarterback pressures, giving him a solid 8.9% pass rush rate on 503 pass rush snaps. He also led his position with 8 batted passes, for what it’s worth. With better luck, he could turn some of those hits and pressures into sacks and post a pretty decent total. However, Hardy has, with his coaching staff’s blessing, bulked up from 280 to 300 this offseason, which will hurt him as a pass rusher, though it’ll help him as a run stuffer and allow him to move inside and play defensive tackle on passing downs.

He’ll be needed at defensive tackle because that’s a position of weakness. A pair of 3rd round rookies, Sione Fua and Terrell McClain, started there in 2011 and both played very poorly, ranking 75th and 84th respectively out of 88 defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus. The Panthers didn’t use the 9th overall pick on Fletcher Cox because they believe those two can bounce back, but it’s no sure thing. After all, they weren’t that highly regarded coming out of school. 3rd rounders only turn into starters about 30% of the time.

Along with Hardy seeing some snaps at defensive tackle, the Chiefs will also have Ron Edwards back from a torn triceps injury that cost him his entire 2011 season. He’s 33 though so I don’t know what he has left, but he should be an upgrade over last year’s top reserve, Andre Neblett, who played very poorly, even in limited action.

With Hardy possibly moving to defensive tackle in sub packages, either Frank Alexander or Antawn Applewhite will come in as the nickel rusher, though I suppose Eric Norwood and Thomas Keiser will also be in the running for nickel duties. Two of the aforementioned four defensive ends should see pretty significant action as rotational ends this season.

Alexander is only a 4th round rookie, but the other three did play last year. Unfortunately, they only combined for 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 376 pass rush snaps, good for a 8.7% pass rush rate, not very good for situational rushers. The Panthers could really struggle to get pressure in sub packages, as well as possibly in base packages. They also are very thin at defensive tackle.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

As I’ve mentioned, the Panthers linebacking corps is the strength of their defense. Unfortunately, this is the least important of the 3 levels of defense. They’ll be a solid team against the run, thanks to their improved linebacking corps, but a poor defensive line will hurt in that aspect and this is a passing league, so run stuffing isn’t as important. Still, it’s worth noting that this is a strong group.

Jon Beason will return from an Achilles injury that cost him his entire 2011 season. He was an above average starter before his injury, but it’s possible that he could not be his old self in his first year back from a major injury, especially early in the season. At one outside linebacker spot next to him, 2012 9th overall pick Luke Kuechly will start. Kuechly is one of the best collegiate linebackers of the decade. He can play all 3 downs and looks like the favorite to be defensive rookie of the year right now.

The 3rd linebacker is James Anderson, a solid starter who was better in 2010 than in 2011. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, but last year, he was just average with a -2.4 rating. It’s unclear which of these three will leave the field in sub packages, but my money would be on Beason, at least early in the season. Focusing on being a two down run stuffer would be the best use of his abilities and allow him to ease his way back into action. Kuechly would then move inside to his collegiate position, middle linebacker, in sub packages.

Thomas Davis, meanwhile, could contribute some as a reserve in a situational or rotational role, but he’s had 3 ACL tears and players rarely, if ever, recover from that. He hasn’t played a game since 2009, when he only played in 7. None of his 4.25 million is guaranteed this season, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were a final cut, especially since they don’t really need him. 4.25 million dollars is a lot of money for a reserve linebacker. He could restructure, I suppose.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

Like their pass rush and defensive line, the Panthers’ secondary is a major weakness. As you can expect from a team with a poor pass rush and a weak secondary, the Panthers sucked in coverage last year, allowing a league worst 8.4 YPA. I don’t see that getting much better this season and their whole defense will struggle as a result.

#1 cornerback Chris Gamble actually played pretty well, allowing just 27 completions on 60 attempts (45.0%) for 338 yards (5.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and only committing 2 penalties. Among cornerbacks who played 50% of their team’s snaps, his 53.3 QB rating allowed was only behind Darrelle Revis and Asante Samuel.

However, the now 29 year old has never done anything like that in his career prior to last season, so it might not be replicable and even if it is, his abilities are not as impactful as they could be because opposing quarterbacks can easily pick on the opposite cornerback. That’s exactly what they did in 2011 as only 3 cornerbacks were thrown against on a lower percentage of their coverage snaps (12.1%). He only allowed a completion on 5.5% of his coverage snaps, only behind Nnamdi Asomugha.

Last year, those opposite cornerbacks were Donald Butler and Captain Munnerlyn. Munnerlyn began the year as the starter, with Butler in the slot, but the two swapped jobs towards the end of the season. Both were terrible. Munnerlyn allowed 45 completions on 61 attempts (73.8%) for 607 yards (10.0 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while deflecting 4 passes and committing 8 penalties.

Butler, meanwhile, allowed 34 completions on 53 attempts (64.2%) for 469 yards (8.8 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing a penalty. Both allowed QB ratings among the 7 worst among cornerbacks who played 25% or more of their team’s snaps, as Munnerlyn allowed a 126.9 QB rating (3rd worst) and Butler allowed a 117.6 rating (7th worst).

Both will compete for the starting job this season with 5th round rookie Josh Norman and 2011 4th round pick Brandon Hogan, who played just 57 snaps last season and admits he’s still not 100% after tearing his ACL in December of 2010. I don’t think any of those guys will be a competent starter and the fact that a 5th round rookie could legitimate start for them tells you all you need to know.

Things aren’t much better at safety. Sherrod Martin and Charles Godfrey will start again. They ranked 54th and 75th respectively out of 84 safeties on ProFootballFocus last year and Godfrey ranked 77th in coverage. Martin was better in coverage, but still not great and really struggled as a run stopper. The Ravens signed Haruki Nakamura from the Ravens to potentially platoon with Martin and come in on clear running downs, but he won’t help their pass defense, which figures to once again be one of the worst in the NFL.

They’ll stop the run fine thanks to a strong linebacking corps, but in a passing league, their inability to stop anyone through the air will keep their defense towards the bottom of the league in terms of points per game allowed. They didn’t really do anything to fix their defensive line or secondary this offseason. All they did was use a 4th round pick on Frank Alexander, a 5th round pick on Josh Norman, and sign the mediocre Haruki Nakamura.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

He’s only got one year of experience, but Ron Rivera turned things around in a hurry in Carolina, going 6-10 last season and positioning them to be a contender in the near future and possibly a perennial contender once they get there. Cam Newton obviously helps and deserves a ton of the credit, but Rivera was part of the draft team that decided to select him (though I bet even he’d admit he didn’t think he’d be THIS good THIS fast). Before being a Head Coach, Rivera was a highly regarded defensive coordinator. Without him this season, San Diego fell from 10th to 23rd in opponent’s scoring and from 1st to 16th in opponent’s yardage this season. There’s a lot to like with him, even if it is still early.

Grade: B

Overall

Offensively, I don’t think the Panthers will be as good as they were last season. They won’t be bad, but they won’t be a top-5 scoring offense again. Cam Newton could have a bit of a sophomore slump and his thin receiving corps, headlined by an aging player in Steve Smith, won’t help him avoid that. Defensively, meanwhile, they’ll once again struggle to stop opponent’s passing attacks, a very bad thing in a pass heavy league. Overall, I actually think the Panthers will play worse this season than they did last season.

The good news, however, is that they actually played better than their 6-10 record would have suggested last year. They had a Pythagorean Expectation of 7.48 and that’s normally a more accurate predictor of future success than pure win loss record. Newton and company were 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that, history suggests, evens out in the long run. This isn’t to say they’ll be a good team in close games this year (the gambler’s fallacy), but it’s more accurate to predict them to be average in close games than bad, especially now that Newton isn’t a rookie anymore.

The Panthers do still face a brutal schedule. They play in a very tough division with New Orleans, Atlanta, and a Tampa Bay team that should bounce back. They swept the season series with Tampa Bay last year, but didn’t get a single win against New Orleans or Atlanta. I expect them to get at least one win against New Orleans or Atlanta this year, but they won’t necessarily sweep Tampa Bay. I have them at 2-4 in the division.

Outside the division, they host the Giants, Seattle, Dallas, Denver, and Oakland. Seattle and Oakland should be pretty easy games and they could win one of the other three at home so 3-2 is reasonable here. However, they also have to go to Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Diego. That’s 4 teams I have in the playoffs, including a San Diego team that is almost unbeatable in December at home. Anything from 6 to 8 wins would not surprise me at all, but I think they’re still a year away from being a playoff team, especially in the tougher of the two conferences, the NFC, and in a tough division.

Projection: 7-9 3rd in AFC South

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Atlanta Falcons 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Falcons

Offense

The Falcons have made the playoffs in each of the last 2 seasons, but have not won a single playoff game. Matt Ryan, in fact, has not won a playoff game in his career, despite making the playoffs in 3 out of his 4 seasons in the NFL. For what it’s worth, I think too much is being made of Ryan’s inability to win a playoff game. Peyton Manning started 0-3 in his career in the playoffs and Ryan got unlucky enough to run into the eventual Super Bowl Champion in his first playoff game in his last 2 playoff appearances.

Still, the Falcons are changing things up this offseason and going with a fundamental change on offense that really started in last year’s draft. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is gone and his conservative run first/short pass offense is gone with him. Instead, the Falcons have brought in Dirk Koetter, previously the offensive coordinator in Jacksonville.

Koetter is planning on opening things up more. Julio Jones, who the Falcons drafted after pulling off a blockbuster trade during the 2011 NFL Draft, will become more of the focal point of the offense, while an aging Roddy White will become less so, according to numerous statements from several coaches and White himself.

When the Falcons drafted Jones, it signaled the beginning of a switch in offensive philosophies. Jones was both the kind of deep threat they hadn’t had before and also represented the kind of aggressive focus on the wide receiver position that they hadn’t had before either, as they gave up two 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick, and two 4th round picks for the 6th overall pick, which they used on Jones.

The Falcons also plan on running less and passing more this year. Matt Ryan has averaged just 522 passing attempts per 16 games in his 4 year career thus far, while the Falcons have ranked in the top-11 in rushing attempts in each of the last 4 years. They won’t just be running less overall. Michael Turner, an aging player, will see a smaller percentage of the carries overall, signaling a switch from a one-back system to a multi-back system. Jacquizz Rodgers, a 5th round pick also from the aforementioned 2011 NFL Draft, will see more carries and give the offense a speed/pass catching back that it previously lacked.

The 2012 Atlanta Falcons’ offense will look foreign to many people who have followed the Falcons for years. They will take more shots downfield, pass more and run less, use multiple backs, run more screens to the backs, and run more outside the tackles than ever before. This switch could give them the offense they need to compete with the Packers, the Saints, and the Patriots of the world and lead to Matt Ryan having an Eli Manning type breakout year, with perfect timing too with the Saints dealing with off the field stuff. However, it could also have unintended negative consequences.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan has been very solid in his first 4 seasons, going 42-20, completing 60.9% of his passes for an average of 7.0 YPA and 95 touchdowns to 46 attempts. He’s never won a playoff game, but, as I’ve already mentioned, he’s run into some bad luck and he’s led the Falcons to the playoffs in each of the three seasons in which he played 16 games. Last season, he completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. His adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) was 4th in the league at 92.45, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.

He had his skeptics coming out of Boston College in 2008 because he doesn’t have great arm strength, but he’s proven to be well worth the 3rd overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. He’s run Mike Mularkey’s conservative offense very well and Mularkey did a great job of scheming to highlight Ryan’s strengths and mask his weaknesses.

However, now Mularkey is gone. Ryan will be counted on to throw downfield more often in Dirk Koetter’s offense and pass more overall and I don’t know that he’s the right quarterback for Koetter’s offense (or if Koetter is the right offensive coordinator for Matt Ryan’s skill set). Last season, including playoffs, Ryan completed just 16 of 63 passes that went 20+ yards or more through the air and was accurate (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) on just 30.2% of those passes (2nd worst to Blaine Gabbert).

That wasn’t such a huge deal under Mularkey because only 10.4% of Ryan’s attempts went longer than 20 yards in the air last year, 24th out of 30 eligible quarterbacks, but that won’t be the case this year. Ryan’s struggles with the deep ball weren’t limited to last season. In 2010, he was accurate on 35.3% of those passes, good for 30th out of 37 eligible quarterbacks and those passes constituted just 8.5% of his attempts, good for 33rd in the league. In 2009, he was accurate on 30.0% of those passes, good for 29th out of 35 and those passes constituted just 8.9% of his attempts, 30th in the league.

In his career, he’s completed just 69 of 216 attempts that went 20+ yards in the attempt, good for a career completion percentage of 31.9%. For comparison, he’s 1163 of 1806 (64.4%) on passes that go shorter than 20 yards in the air. He may throw for a career high in yards this season (his previous career high is 4177) because he’ll have more attempts and take more shots, but his completion percentage could be below 60% for just the 2nd time in his 5 year career and he could definitely exceed his career high 14 interceptions.

The Falcons have been very good at limiting turnovers in the last 4 years, turning the ball over 21 times in 2008, 25 times in 2009, 17 times in 2010, and 21 times last year. That number could be closer to 30 this year and either cancel out the good done by the added explosion in their offense and have a negative overall affect on a Falcons’ offense that ranked 10th in scoring in 2008, 13th in 2009, 5th in 2010, and 7th last year.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Of course, a larger offense lean on Julio Jones over Roddy White might make the Falcons offense more efficient. Julio Jones is an absolute beast. Despite dealing with leg injuries last season and despite being a rookie coming off of a lockout, Jones managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games.

With the exception of him and AJ Green, 1st round pick wide receivers have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns since 2005. His 959 yards were 3rd among 24 receivers taken in the 1st round since 2005 behind only Green and Dwayne Bowe. And he did that in 13 games, coming off a lockout, and despite dealing with injuries. Including playoffs, he had 31 catches for 525 yards and 6 touchdowns and in his last 6 games last season. He looks due for a huge breakout season. Even Jerry Rice thinks so. He’s like AJ Green with a better quarterback.

Roddy White, meanwhile, just ripped off his 5th straight season of 80+ catches and 1200+ yards by catching 100 passes for 1296 yards and 8 touchdowns. On the surface, that looks very impressive. However, a closer look shows that he was not nearly as good last year as he had been in the past and that was his mostly just a volume receiver. Including playoffs, White caught 105 passes, but he did so on 186 targets (2nd behind Wes Welker, who went all the way to the Super Bowl), meaning he caught just 56.5% of his targets. Including playoffs, he also dropped a league leading 17 passes. He had the 4th highest drop rate in the NFL. Heading into his age 31 season, White is on the decline.

In theory, an offensive switch from White to Jones as the focal point makes their offense more efficient. On White’s 186 targets, he had 1348 yards, good for 7.2 YPA, actually on the lower end of the league. Jones, meanwhile, had 1023 receiving yards on 99 attempts, good for 10.3 YPA, on the higher end of the league. Jones also had 7.5 YAC per catch, 3rd in the league, while White’s 3.4 YAC per catch was 84th. When throwing to Jones, Ryan had a QB rating of 115.0, while he had a QB rating of 78.0 throwing to White. Whether this will cancel out Ryan’s inability to complete deep passes remains to be seen, however.

Harry Douglas, meanwhile, will line up in the slot. He’s a decent player, but he’ll once again have trouble getting targets behind Jones and White. He got a mere 62 targets last year, including playoffs, and turned them into a solid 40 catches for 505 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Tony Gonzalez will be the tight end. Gonzalez had a very good year last year with 84 catches for 919 yards and 7 touchdowns, including playoffs.

However, heading into his age 36 season, he’s one of the league’s oldest players and it’s unrealistic that he can continue this much longer. This year is expected to be his last in the NFL and the Falcons don’t really have another tight end that can step up if Gonzalez struggles. He’s also a terrible run blocker, ranking 3rd worst on ProFootballFocus at his position in that aspect. The Falcons do have Michael Palmer to specialize in that, but he’s not a good pass catcher.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The other major fundamental change for the Falcons on offense is, of course, that they will run on a smaller percentage of their plays and that Michael Turner will receive a smaller percentage of the carries, according to numerous statements made by the coaching staff and by Turners himself. Turner, who was reportedly almost cut this offseason, is now 30 years old and has had 300+ carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons, which take their toll, especially for a running back who had 954 yards after contact, including playoffs, most in the league.

He was terrible down the stretch last year, averaging 3.6 YPC or less in 6 of his last 7 games, including playoffs. The one exception was a game against Tampa Bay, who might as well have not had a defense last season. This is nothing new as he averaged 3.8 YPC in the 2nd half in 2010, after 4.5 YPC in the 1st half of the season. He also fits like a square peg in a round hole in their new offense, which will feature more outside runs and screen passes to the running backs. Turner is purely a between the tackles power runner, especially at this point in his career, and he’s caught a combined 40 passes in the last 4 seasons.

Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers will see more snaps this season, especially Rodgers. Snelling is a solid pass catcher, but Rodgers has the explosiveness they want in a back and, while Snelling is a veteran heading into his age 29 season, Rodgers is a 2011 5th round pick that the coaching staff loves and views as a huge part of their offense going forward into the future. He could be a breakout player for the Falcons this year offensively.

Grade: B

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Offensive Line

In 2010, the Falcons’ offensive line was a major strength. In 2011, that was not so much the case. They weren’t bad, but they ranked 10th on ProFootballFocus in pass blocking efficiency and 19th as run blockers. Matt Ryan was only sacked 26 times because he only took a sack on 15.2% of his pressured snaps, good for 8th best in the NFL among eligible quarterbacks. Those 26 sacks were the 6th lowest number in the NFL. Even the Giants’ ferocious pass rush only got to Ryan twice in the Falcons’ playoff loss to the Giants.

The biggest difference from the 2010 Falcons to the 2011 Falcons was the loss of Harvey Dahl. Dahl, a talented right guard, jumped ship and signed with the Rams last offseason and the Falcons struggled to replace him. Garrett Reynolds got the first crack at the starting job, but struggled mightily. His -13.8 rating finished 59th among 76 guards on ProFootballFocus. Joe Hawley then took over. His -5.2 rating was better, but still not great.

It was certainly better than the -9.4 rating that Hawley posted in 4 starts at center early in the season, which was the 56th worst rating out of 65 players who played a snap at center last year. Hawley started at center in place of an injured Todd McClure for those first 4 games. McClure actually played really well once he returned as his 10.5 rating ranked 6th at his position. He’s heading into his age 35 season though, so I don’t know how much longer he can keep this up, though interior offensive linemen do have a pretty long shelf life.

Three players, McClure, Hawley, and rookie Peter Konz will compete for 2 spots at center and right guard. Konz, a steal in the 2nd round, deserves to be the week 1 starter at guard over Hawley, who struggled last year and McClure should remain the center until his play actually declines, leaving Hawley as a utility interior offensive lineman. However, it’s a pretty open competition right now and both Hawley and Konz have the ability to play both guard and center, while McClure is primarily a center.

The opposite guard is left guard Justin Blalock. Blalock has always been great in pass protection, but last year his run blocking abilities took a steep decline. In fact, he ranked 68th at his position out of 76 on ProFootballFocus in that aspect. Maybe he can bounce back in 2012. In 2010, he ranked 11th at guard overall and was an equally good pass protector and run blocker.

The worst offender on the Falcons’ offensive line both in 2010 and 2011 has been left tackle Sam Baker. The 2008 1st round pick has been a bust to this point in his career. In 2010, he ranked 71st out of 76 at his position with a -26.7 rating. He allowed 10 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures, while committing 8 penalties and graded out as the 2nd worst run blocker at his position. In 2011, he dealt with injuries and only made 6 starts, but still managed to allow 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 17 quarterback pressures, while committing 2 penalties and struggling some as a run blocker.

In his absence, Will Svitek was the left tackle, but he wasn’t much better. He graded out well below average with a -9.6 rating, struggled as a run blocker and pass protector, and allowed 3 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures in part time duty, while committing 5 penalties. He was the lesser of two evils at left tackle for the Falcons last season, but he was still not very good. With this in mind, the Falcons used a 3rd round pick on Lamar Holmes, but he’s just a raw rookie. The trio will compete for the starting job in Training Camp in a competition that will have no winners.

Opposite him, however, right tackle Tyson Clabo is the Falcons’ best offensive lineman. His 12.6 rating ranked 8th at his position last year and he allowed just 4 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, while committing 8 penalties, run blocking well and not missing a snap. The Falcons could move him to left tackle and then play either Baker, Svitek, or Holmes at right tackle, but they’re hesitant to do that because he’s so comfortable at right tackle, which is definitely a valid concern.

The Falcons offensive line should be fine in 2012. It might not be as good as it was in 2010, but it’ll be better than in 2011 most likely, especially if Peter Konz, a 2nd round steal, can have an impact as a rookie. The bigger question is if they have the right personnel to run the new offense they’re going to, specifically quarterback Matt Ryan. They could turn the ball over more often than any Matt Ryan led team ever before thanks to the departure of offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. They’ve always been a good offensive team doing what they had been doing and it might be a case of “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it.”

Grade: B+

Defense

Defense is what’s broken for the Falcons, if anything. They ranked 18th in the league with 21.9 points per game allowed last year. Credit the Falcons for trying to fix it. On one hand, they brought in Mike Nolan to be their defensive coordinator and, while he’s a terrible Head Coach, he’s always been a good defensive coordinator who has made things better defensively everywhere he’s gone. They also brought in Asante Samuel to shore up a hole at cornerback.

On the other hand, Curtis Lofton, one of their top defenders, is gone, signing with hated division rival New Orleans this offseason. Their top pass rusher, John Abraham, is now 34 and any decline from him would weaken what is already a poor pass rush and has been for years (151 sacks combined in the last 5 seasons, including 33 last season). On top of that, they don’t have the personnel for a 3-4 defense, which Mike Nolan normally runs. Nolan will not be running that style of defense this year, a smart move, but he’s always had his most success with a 3-4, so you have to wonder how he’ll do with a 4-3.

Defensive Line

I already mentioned how poor the Falcons’ pass rush is and has been for years. Last year, they managed just 33 sacks (35 including playoffs). John Abraham was a one man show last year, with 11 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 394 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.0%, one of the best in the league. With a 37.8 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked defensive end, and their 2nd ranked pass rushing defensive end. He is, however, 34, so it’s fair to question how much longer he can do this. Even last year, they had to rotate him out of the game often to keep him fresh. No one else on the team had more than 4 sacks. They’ll need someone else to step up.

One candidate to do so is Ray Edwards. Edwards was given a fairly significant contract last offseason, but struggled in his first season away from Minnesota, where he had the benefit of lining up opposite Jared Allen. You’d think being able to line up opposite Abraham, the active leader in sacks, would help him continue his strong play, but it didn’t. He run stuffed well, but had just 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 438 pass rush snaps, good for a pretty mediocre 8.0% rate.

The Falcons love to rotate their defensive linemen so Kroy Biermann and Lawrence Sidbury also saw significant snaps at defensive end. Biermann struggled mightily in all aspects of the game, struggling against the run and managing just 3 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 345 pass rush snaps (for some reason, only 49 fewer than Abraham), good for a rate of 7.8%. Sidbury, meanwhile, was better in more limited action with 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures on 129 pass rush snaps (13.2%).

The Falcons love rotation on the defensive line, but if you only have one good pass rusher, all rotation does is take your only pass rusher off the field too often. With Abraham aging, they’ll probably have to continue to do that to keep him fresh and he could easily decline anyway, especially considering how good he was last year. That’s a tough rate to match regardless of your age.

They need another pass rusher to step up like Edwards, Biermann, Sidbury, or even 5th round rookie Jonathan Massaquoi or 2011 7th round pick Cliff Matthews. The Falcons haven’t spent a high pick on a defensive end since drafting eventual bust Jamaal Anderson 8th overall in 2007. However, true to their quantity over quality form, they have used a 4th round pick or lower on an end in 4 of the last 5 drafts (Biermann, 5th round in 2008, Sidbury, 4th round in 2009, Matthews 7th round in 2011, Massaquoi 5th round in 2012.)

The Falcons also love rotation at defensive tackle with 4 players getting between 369 and 669 snaps there last season. Those 4 players were, in order of snaps played, Corey Peters, Jonathan Babineaux, Vance Walker, and Peria Jerry. That figures to be the case again in 2012. Babineaux was once again the best of the bunch in 2012, ranking 13th at his position with a 14.3 rate. He was good as a run stuffer and pass rusher and had 1 sack, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 367 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 7.6%, very good for his position.

Vance Walker and Corey Peters were both pretty average, with ratings of -0.3 and 1.0 respectively, but Peria Jerry was awful. He originally began the season as the starter, but lost his starting job to Peters and barely played down the stretch. He should once again play the least of the 4 this season, even though the coaching staff expressed their loyalty to the 2009 1st round pick. He’s been a bust thus far in his career, thanks to injuries and I don’t see it turning around. Last season, he struggled as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher and his -9.3 rating ranked 80th out of 89 defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Falcons lost one of their best defensive players, linebacker Curtis Lofton, this offseason and, even worse, he left to sign with the Saints. He played very well for them for years, including last year when he ranked 17th overall at his position with a 12.3 rating and 11th against the run. He wasn’t great in coverage, but he got the job done in that aspect and played all 3 downs.

Fortunately, the Falcons still have Sean Weatherspoon, who actually played better than Lofton did last season. Weatherspoon’s superior 20.4 rating ranked 5th among outside linebackers. He too stuffed the run well, but he also added something as a blitzer with 4 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures on 89 pass rush snaps (20.2%). He wasn’t much in coverage either, but he’s a very good player and the 2010 1st round pick could make his first Pro Bowl in 2012, his 3rd season in the league, once he starts getting recognition.

Weatherspoon will start next to either Akeem Dent or Lofa Tatupu. Those two are competing for Lofton’s old job at middle linebacker. Dent is a 2011 3rd round pick, who played just 12 snaps last year, while Tatupu is a 3-time Pro-Bowler (2005, 2006, 2007), who has had his career derailed by injuries. He was out of the league completely last year. The Falcons appeared to have the intention of playing Tatupu as a run stuffer and rotating in Dent in sub packages, but a pectoral injury suffered by Tatupu in the late offseason may have ruined those plans. Even though he’s only heading into his age 30 season, I don’t trust him to stay healthy.

The 3rd linebacker will be Stephen Nicholas, a mediocre player who missed most of last season with injuries. Nicholas will only need to be a two down run stuffer as he’ll come out when the Falcons go to base packages and only use 2 linebackers, so he should be okay in that role. However, they don’t have any depth behind him. In fact, depth is a major issue in the Falcons’ linebacking corps, with Nicholas and Tatupu coming off injuries and Dent being unproven. Weatherspoon saves the group from being atrocious, but this is not a good bunch.

Grade: C+

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Secondary

The Falcons’ secondary is their strongest bunch. They ranked just 17th with 7.2 YPA allowed last year, but that was mostly because they had no pass rush, starter Dunta Robinson struggled, and they had no depth. The Falcons brought in Asante Samuel this offseason, so that will solve at least one of those problems, as Samuel takes Robinson’s old starting spot and moves him to the slot, where he might be able to provide solid depth.

Samuel played very well last season in Philadelphia. He allowed 29 completions on 61 attempts (47.5%) for 296 yards (4.9 YPA), 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. His 52.4 QB rating allowed was 3rd at his position among eligible players (50% of their team’s snaps). I know Philadelphia was trying to cut payroll, but the fact that he was able to be had for a 7th round pick this past April was highway robbery.

Samuel will start opposite Brent Grimes, who ranked 7th among eligible players in QB rating allowed last year. He allowed 25 completions on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 12 passes and only committing 1 penalty. On paper, this duo would appear incredibly deadly and dominant as both allowed completion percentages in the 40s, but injury and age are issues. Grimes has been an injury prone player to this point in his career, part of the reason why the Falcons only franchised him and did not sign him long term this offseason. Samuel, meanwhile, is heading into his age 31 season and would actually be 32 in early January.

Dunta Robinson, meanwhile, was terrible last year. His -11.6 rating ranked 90th out of 98 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus and he was even worse, 96th, if we’re talking pure coverage rating. He has not been nearly worth the ridiculous 6 year, 57 million dollar deal the Falcons gave him 2 years ago. Moving him to the slot might help, but it might not.

At the very least, he’ll probably be better depth than Dominique Franks and Kelvin Hayden were last year. Franks had to step into the lineup when Grimes was hurt and allowed 19 completions on 28 attempts (67.9%) for 364 yards (13.0 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing a penalty. Hayden, who played primarily on the slot, allowed 21 completions on 28 attempts (75.0%) for 239 yards (8.5 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing 2 penalties. Hayden is gone, while Franks will compete with Chris Owens, who also struggled in limited action last year, for the 4th cornerback job. The cornerback position will be a strength of the Falcons’ the season.

At safety, the Falcons have William Moore and Thomas DeCoud. Moore played well last season with a 5.7 rating that ranked 10th at his position, but he missed significant time with injury and, in his absence, James Sanders played poorly. Sanders is gone, but the Falcons signed mediocre veteran Chris Hope from the Titans just in case. DeCoud, meanwhile, is an average player who plays the run well, but struggles in coverage.

Overall, while the Falcons clearly tried to fix their defense by bringing in Mike Nolan and Asante Samuel, they will still be an average defense next year. They lost Curtis Lofton, which left their linebacking corps weak and thin, and they probably will once again not have a good pass rush. Mike Nolan could help, but he’s not working with a 3-4, his area of expertise, so he might not help much. They allowed 21.9 points per game last year, 18th in the league, and ranked 17th against the pass, allowing 7.2 YPA, and 15th against the run, allowing 4.2 YPC. This year, they could be a little better against the pass and overall, but this is still an average unit.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

He’s got the league’s most nondescript name and he might be the league’s most nondescript coach, but Mike Smith is actually a solid Head Coach. He took over a 4-12 team and has gone 43-21 in the 4 years since, though 0-3 in the playoffs. Mike Mularkey definitely helped and I don’t know about Dirk Koetter’s new offense, but Mike Nolan is a good defensive coordinator, so he’ll help, even if he can’t run a 3-4.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Falcons’ offensive switch could go either way. It could make them a much more explosive offense, with Julio Jones becoming more of a focal point, or it could cause them to struggle and turn the ball over more, hurting their offense overall, as Matt Ryan does not appear to be a good fit for the system. I lean towards the latter for two reasons.

The first one is Dirk Koetter. They aren’t only switching schemes, but they’re switching schemes from Mike Mularkey, an accomplished offensive mind, to Koetter, who has spent the last 5 years in Jacksonville, who is not exactly known for their offensive prowess. In his 5 seasons, the Jaguars ranked 6th (25.7 points per game in 2007), 24th (18.9 points per game in 2008), 24th (18.1 points per game in 2009), 18th (22.1 points per game in 2010), and tied for 28th (15.2 points per game in 2011).

The other reason is that the Falcons have lost their offensive identity. For years, they were the strong conservative offense that would control the ball, run the football down your throat behind an excellent offensive line, pass well when they needed to, and play solid defense. Now what are they? There’s not one thing that this team is great at. You need an identity to win in the NFL.

If this team were in the AFC, I would have them winning 10 or 11 games and making the playoffs, but the NFC is a much tougher conference and the Falcons play in a very tough division. In fact, they’re division is so tough that I could see every team except New Orleans cancelling each other out and finishing around .500 and out of the playoffs in a tough conference. They’ll be a playoff contender, but I don’t have them in it (though they were one of the toughest “outs” I had when putting together my previews).

I have them going 3-3 or so in their division, as they face New Orleans, Carolina, and Tampa Bay twice. Outside of the division, they host Denver, Oakland, Dallas, Arizona, and the Giants. They’re a good home team and that’s not that tough of a schedule so they could go 4-1 or so in those 5 games, but they’re not a good road team and they have to travel to Kansas City, San Diego, Washington, Philadelphia, and Detroit. The first two won’t be hard, especially since San Diego sucks early in the season, but the other 3 are tougher games. I’d say 8 or 9 wins is what it works out to be for them. They’ll be just on the outside of the playoffs and though I have them at 8-8, I wouldn’t be surprised if they went 11-5, but I’d be shocked if they 5-11. This is just kind of how it worked out for them.

Update: I had doubts about Matt Ryan in this new scheme, but I don’t anymore after watching him complete 75.0% of his passes for an average of 9.2 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception this preseason. He’s got an incredible offensive supporting cast and I feel he’s about the make the leap into elite quarterback territory.

Projection: 11-5 2nd in NFC South

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New Orleans Saints 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Saints

Offense

The Saints’ offseason went about as badly as any offseason where you don’t lose major players could go. First there was BountyGate, which caused the Saints to lose their top pass rusher, Will Smith, for 4 games, their starting middle linebacker, Jonathan Vilma, for the season, and Head Coach Sean Peyton for the season. It also is a major distraction for the players and a major disruptor of team chemistry. On top of all that, it cost them a 2nd round pick in the 2012 and 2013 NFL Drafts. Already missing their 1st round pick this year, they didn’t have a draft pick until the 3rd round, which hurt their ability to reload.

The other major problem was Drew Brees’ holdout. Brees is signed long term now, but it took them until right before the franchise player deadline. That was another distraction and major disruptor of team chemistry. When your franchise quarterback has to put in that much effort and that much time to get paid fairly, it starts to make the other players question if their front office has their best interests in mind. Brees also missed all of OTAs and minicamp, which will also hurt team chemistry.

Brees is signed now and won’t miss any of Training Camp, which will definitely help, and while they’ve lost other pieces this offseason, they still have the most important one, the quarterback. Even without Sean Payton, this team will be able to score tons of points as long as they have Brees. The Saints offense averaged 476.1 yards and scored more than 40 points six times in the 10 games Pete Carmichael Jr. called the plays last season, when Payton was in the booth with an injury. And I’m sure Payton will find some way to bend or break the rules to put his stamp on this team in some way.

Quarterback

Last season, Brees completed 71.2% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 46 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 110.6. Including playoffs, Brees completed 70.9% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 53 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. The Saints’ offense scored 34.2 points per game (4th highest all-time in a 16 game season) and won 13 games despite an average defense that ranked 13th in the league with 21.2 points per game allowed. 9 times out of 10, that wins you the MVP. However, Aaron Rodgers set the single season record for QB rating last year, averaged a higher YPA and a better TD:INT ratio, and led the Packers to 35.0 points per game (2nd highest all-time in a 16 game season).

There are some areas in which Brees was actually better than Rodgers last season. He had better pocket presence, taking a sack on only 13.9% of pressured snaps, as opposed to 22.9% for Rodgers (all stats including playoffs). Only Michael Vick and Eli Manning took a sack less often when pressured. He also had an accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) of 68.6% under pressure, as opposed to 63.2% for Aaron Rodgers. Only Eli Manning was accurate on a higher percentage of his pressured throws.

Brees also ranked 3rd in deep accuracy (20+ yards or more) with a 53.5% accuracy percentage, 2nd in overall accuracy percentage with a 79.0% accuracy percentage, 2nd in yards in the air (total yards – YAC + yards lost on drops), and 2nd in adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch). ProFootballFocus graded him out as their best quarterback last year and his 70.7 overall rating led all players at any position. 2nd place Justin Smith had a rating of 59.9, a pretty big difference.

The only hole you can poke in Brees is that he gets to play 8 home games in a dome and he’s not as good outside as he is inside. In domes, Brees completed 72.7% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA and 37 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, as opposed to 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions outside, including playoffs. There’s a reason why the Saints went 5-4 on the road and 9-0 at home.

Over the last two seasons, the Saints are 11-7 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 3.7 points per game. At home, they are 14-3 and outscore their opponents by an average of 13.4 points per game. They’ve been 9.7 points per game better at home than on the road. The Saints would have their best chance of winning the Super Bowl again if they get the #1 seed and home field advantage, like they did when they won it the last time. Luckily for them, if they make the Super Bowl, they’ll have the ultimate home field advantage because the Superdome hosts the Super Bowl this season. They will try to be the first team to play the Super Bowl in their home stadium in NFL history.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Brees has no shortage of talented receivers to throw to either, though he does make them all look better than they are. The Saints like to use 4 different wide receivers, giving Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, and Lance Moore all significant snaps last season. Colston was targeted 124 times on 598 pass plays (including playoffs), once every 4.8 pass plays, one of the best rates in the league.

He hauled in 96 of those passes (77.4%) for 1394 yards and 9 touchdowns, but didn’t do much after the catch as his 3.2 yards after catch per catch ranked 4th worst among players who averaged 14.0+ yards per catch, behind Miami’s Brian Hartline, Chad Ochocinco, formerly of the New England Patriots, and Robert Meachem, Colston’s former teammate in New Orleans. He also only broke 3 tackles all year. Colston lines up in a bunch of different places, ranked 2nd in QB rating when thrown to (134.3), and 6th in yards per route run (2.45), but is largely a product of the system. There’s a reason he resigned with the Saints quickly this offseason, seemingly at a discount. One thing he does have is reliable hands, dropping just 3 passes last season, good for the 4th best drop rate in the league.

Robert Meachem was the starter opposite Colston last year. He’s gone, but he’s pretty mediocre. On 532 pass plays last year, he was targeted 72 times, just once every 7.4 pass plays. He only hauled in 65.3% of those targets (47) and while his high YPC (15.9) led to 748 yards, his aforementioned low YAC per catch was just 3.1, largely because he broke just 2 tackles all season. He scored 7 times.

He’s being replaced in the starting lineup by Devery Henderson, an equally mediocre player. Henderson saw 561 passing snaps last year (which shows how much the Saints like to rotate receivers and use 3 and 4 wide receiver sets), but was targeted just 58 times, good for one every 9.7 passing plays. He hauled in just 38 of those targets (65.5%) for 616 yards and 3 touchdowns.

With Meachem gone, Lance Moore will see more of the field. Moore is a more efficient player who lines up primarily on the slot. On 336 pass plays, he was targeted 72 times, once every 4.7 passing plays. He hauled in 52 of those passes (72.2%) for 627 yards and 8 touchdowns. He’s a nice sure handed possession receiver. The 4th receiver will either be the inexperienced Adrian Arrington or 4th round rookie Nick Toon. Toon was a steal in the 4th round and deserves to win the 4th receiver job. If he does, he’ll see plenty of the field. He should eventually be a starter for them.

The Saints also get plenty of pass receiving production from tight end Jimmy Graham and running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Graham played 651 passing snaps and was targeted 164 times (once every 4.0 plays) for 111 receptions (67.7%) for 1468 yards and 14 touchdowns. He led the team in all of those categories. Brees throwing to his tight ends often is nothing new. In 2010, David Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, and a then raw rookie Jimmy Graham combined for 108 catches for 1046 yards and 9 touchdowns. Graham essentially just consolidated all of those targets and used his superior athleticism to do the rest. He’s not much of a blocker, but he should have yet another strong season as a pass catcher in 2012. David Thomas, a better blocker, handles most of those duties.

Darren Sproles is listed as a running back, but he’s essentially a wide receiver. He ran 450 pass routes, as opposed to only 101 carries. He was targeted 130 times, once every 3.5 pass plays. He caught 105 passes (80.8%) for 877 yards and 8 touchdowns. He led all running backs in targets by 22, in receptions by 24, and in receiving touchdowns by 5.

Sproles wasn’t their only running back who contributed in the passing game. Pierre Thomas saw 238 passing plays and was targeted 62 times on those for a rate of once every 3.8 pass plays and caught 57 passes (91.9%) for 485 yards and a touchdown. Brees loves passing to running backs and tight ends. He’s got plenty of targets and knows how to get the most out of them. There’s a reason he was 3rd in the league in yards in the air before drops per attempt (yards – yards after catch + yards lost in drops/pass attempts) with 4.7, only behind Eli Manning (4.8) and Aaron Rodgers (5.0).

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Sproles and Thomas also some saw carries as running backs, but the Saints don’t run nearly as much as they pass. In the regular season, they passed 662 times, as opposed to 431 runs. In the postseason, they passed 106 times to 50 runs. Sproles carried the ball 87 times for 603 yards and 2 touchdowns (6.9 YPC), while Thomas rushed for 562 yards and 5 touchdowns on 110 carries (5.1 YPC). Because of those two, the Saints were actually able to rush 4.9 YPC, good for 4th in the league. Sproles and Thomas have career averages of 5.2 and 4.8 YPC respectively and are undoubtedly helped by the Saints’ passing game and offensive line, so they could replicate that in 2012.

The one guy they need to get going is Mark Ingram. Ingram was a 1st round pick of the Saints in 2011, after they traded a 2nd round pick in 2011 and a 1st round pick in 2012 to grab him 28th overall. The former Heisman winner struggled mightily as a rookie with injuries and rushed for just 474 yards and 5 touchdowns on 122 carries (3.9 YPC) in 10 games. He also only caught 11 passes for 46 yards, but he’s never been much of a pass catcher. Ingram had another knee surgery this offseason so things still look pretty bleak for him. He’s their best between the tackles and short yardage runner, so if they can get him going, it will be very good for their offense, especially around the goal line.

Grade: B

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Offensive Line

The Saints also have a very strong offensive line that ranked 8th on ProFootballFocus in pass blocking efficiency and 5th as run blockers. Brees is a very good quarterback under pressure, but they did a very good job making sure he was protected as he ranked 18th out of 22 eligible quarterbacks (50% of their team’s snaps) as he was pressured on just 25.9% of his team’s snaps.

Left tackle Jermon Bushrod is the weak point. Bushrod only allowed 3 sacks, but that was mostly Brees’ doing as Bushrod also allowed 11 quarterback hits and 42 quarterback pressures. He was a decent run blocker and penalized 6 times. He’s in a contract year and might not be brought back. Inexperienced 2010 2nd round pick Charles Brown could challenge for his job at some point this season.

Opposite Bushrod, Zach Strief played much better. The right tackle was in just his first season as a starter and graded out well as both a run blocker and a pass protector. With a 15.2 rating, he ranked 2nd at his position behind only Jason Peters. He allowed 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures, numbers that don’t look great, but remember how much they passed. He was also only penalized twice and run blocked well, helping pave the way for the Saints surprisingly strong ground game in 2011.

Also helping that was a strong interior offensive line. Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans are among the league’s best guards, while center Brian La Puente did a very good job in his first season as a starter. Nicks is gone, but the Saints signed Ben Grubbs from the Ravens. He’s not the elite player than Nicks is, but he’ll definitely get the job done. In 2011, he ranked 20th at his position and in 2010 he ranked 10th. Evans, meanwhile, is overpaid, but still a solid starter. He ranked 11th at his position in 2011 with a 7.6 rating, while center Brian La Puente ranked 14th among centers with a 4.5 rating.

Sean Payton is gone, but the Saints offense should be fine without him. Drew Brees is as good as it gets at quarterback and he’s got plenty of talented receiving options around him, as well as a surprisingly strong running game and a strong offensive line. Even with Payton gone, the system isn’t changing much and they did fine with him not calling plays when he was hurt last year. They also have a lot of continuity, which will help combat Payton’s loss, and Payton will still likely find some way to put his mark on this team, even though he’s technically suspended. They should be at least a top 5 offense and score over 30 points per game again this season.

Grade: B+

Defense

Sean Payton’s loss on defense won’t be felt much as he’s not a defensive coach. The Saints did well by bringing in Steve Spagnuolo as defensive coordinator. Spagnuolo was an excellent defensive coordinator with the Giants before taking a Head Coaching job in St. Louis, where he didn’t have much of a chance. Even there, he did great work with their defensive line and pass rush.

That’s a good thing because that’s where the Saints need the most help. The Saints had 33 sacks last year, which is a low total, but it’s even more pathetic when you realize that the Saints did that despite blitzing often. In fact, their team leader in sacks was their strong safety. Including playoffs, only 18 of their 38 sacks came from the defensive line. ProFootballFocus ranked them as the league’s worst pass rushing team. Even worse, their leader in sacks on the defensive line, Will Smith with 7, is suspended for the first 4 games of the season and heading into his age 31 season anyway. He’s not getting any better.

The other suspended defensive player is Jonathan Vilma. He won’t be missed as much. He ranked 52th among middle linebackers with a -18.4 rating last year and was equally bad in coverage and against the run. Now 30, his best days are behind him and he may have played his last game in a Saints uniform. He’s been suspended for the entirety of the 2012 season and the Saints wasted no time replacing him, signing Curtis Lofton, a much better player, from the Falcons. In fact, the Saints brought in 3 new starting linebackers and upgraded a major weakness of their defense.

On top of all this, the Saints should have more takeaways this year. They had just 16 last year, which hurt their defense. In spite of that, they still were a solid 13th in points per game allowed with 21.2 points per game allowed. Since 2002, 38 teams have managed 20 or fewer takeaways. The following season, they have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games. A poor pass rush will hurt them in this area, but they should still be an improved team in this aspect. In 2010, they had 25 takeaways and in 2009, they had 39.

Defensive Line

In Will Smith’s absence, Turk McBride and Junior Galette will rotate at defensive end. McBride is a mediocre and inexperienced player, while Galette did a solid job as a nickel rusher last year, but struggles against the run. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 10.0%. Will Smith, meanwhile, had 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, good for an average at best 7.6% pass rush rate.

The Saints really need Cameron Jordan to get it going at left end. Jordan, the 24th overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft, stuffed the run well, ranking 6th at his position in that aspect, but he struggled to get any pass rush with 1 sack, 6 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures on 365 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 6.8%. Martez Wilson, a 2011 3rd round pick as a linebacker, has converted to defensive end and will see some snaps there this season as an undersized nickel rusher.

The Saints didn’t get much pass rush from the interior of their defensive line either. Sedrick Ellis has always been a strong player against the run, but he doesn’t always get much pass rush. Last year, he managed just 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures on 527 pass rush snaps, good for a poor 4.2% rating. Rather than adding a pass rushing interior defensive lineman this offseason, the Saints gave Brodrick Bunkley a 5 year, 25 million dollar deal and used a 3rd round pick on Akiem Hicks. Both Bunkley and Hicks are better run stuffers than pass rushers, so those moves didn’t make much sense. Bunkley ranked 3rd at his position with a rating of 26.8 with the Broncos last year, and first against the run, but managed just 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback pressures on 213 pass rush snaps (3.3%).

Steve Spagnuolo is great at getting the most out of his defensive lines, but he doesn’t have much to work with. Their best pass rusher is aging and suspended for 4 games and neither of his replacements look like every down ends. The best case scenario is that Smith plays well in 12 games, doesn’t show his age, and Cameron Jordan breaks out as an inside/outside pass rusher, while Galette continues to play well in a nickel role, but even then they won’t be a great pass rushing team. Also, with Gregg Williams gone, they’ll blitz less, which was one of the only reasons they got any pressure last year. They could be one of the worst teams in the league in terms of sacks.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Saints didn’t stuff the run well last year either, allowing 5.0 YPC. However, the addition of Brodrick Bunkley will help, as will their overhaul at linebacker. Not expecting Jonathan Vilma, a declining player anyway, to contribute in 2012, the Saints signed Curtis Lofton from the Falcons to play middle linebacker, stealing one of their biggest rival’s best defensive players in the process. With a 12.3 rate, he ranked 17th at his position last year. He’s best against the run, but not terrible in coverage and played all 3 downs for the Falcons last year.

The Saints also signed David Hawthorne this offseason, who ranked 19th among middle linebackers with an 8.9 rate. He’ll move outside and be a major upgrade over JoLonn Dunbar. Dunbar struggled both outside and inside last year at linebacker, ranking 39th among 42 outside linebackers and 49th among 53 middle linebackers. Overall, he had a pathetic -26.3 rating.

Their other linebacker, Scott Shanle, wasn’t much better. Shanle only sucked at one position, but his -15.5 rating ranked 40th among 42 outside linebackers. The Saints signed Chris Chamberlain to compete with him for the starting job. Chamberlain is only a two down run stuffer, but that’s all they need him to be and he was solid in that role in St. Louis last year under Steve Spagnuolo. With likely 3 new starting linebackers, the Saints have turned a group that was once a major weakness into a strength. That will definitely help them against the run, the specialty of all 3 new linebackers.

Grade: B+

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Secondary

The Saints’ secondary played well last year as they allowed just 7.1 YPA, 14th in the league, despite struggling to get to the quarterback and often blitzing members of their back 7 in order to generate any pressure. #1 cornerback Jabari Greer allowed 74 completions on 137 attempts (54.0%) for 857 yards (6.3 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 17 passes and not committing a single penalty. His 17 deflections were good for most in the league, tied with Joe Haden. If a few of those turn into interceptions in 2012, that will help them improve their takeaway total, as history suggests they will. He got his hands on plenty of balls last season.

Opposite him, 2010 1st round pick Patrick Robinson played pretty well as a starter, allowing 49 completions on 86 attempts (57.0%) for 575 yards (6.7 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 11 passes and committing 3 penalties. Slot cornerback Tracy Porter is gone, but he played really badly, allowing 62 completions on 87 attempts (71.3%) for 752 yards (8.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 4 penalties. The organization believes that 2011 3rd round pick Johnny Patrick is ready to step up and take the job.

At safety, Roman Harper led the team in sacks with 9. He also had 5 quarterback hits and 7 quarterback pressures on 153 blitzes, good for an impressive 13.7% rate. He struggled in coverage though and ranked 83th out of 84 safeties with a -17.8 rating overall. He allowed 33 completions on 64 attempts (51.6%) for 437 yards (6.8 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 9 penalties.

Opposite him, Malcolm Jenkins also struggled in coverage and had a -8.7 rating, but the 2009 1st round pick has been better in the past. He allowed 26 completions on 49 attempts (53.1%) for 555 yards (11.3 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. He allowed the 4th most YAC of any safety in the league and missed 13 tackles. Between the two, they didn’t manage a single interception. Both allowed completion percentages in the 50s, but their coverage rating was hurt by their lack of interceptions. I don’t expect that to happen this year. They’re not bad players.

The Saints’ weakest group on defense, by far, is their defensive line, but they’re well coached there as Steve Spagnuolo is their defensive coordinator and that’s his specialty. They overhauled their linebacking corps and turned that into a strength and, in the secondary, they start 4 players who all allowed completion percentages in the 50s, despite the fact that they couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. Based on history, they should have more takeaways this year. That and their play against the run were their two weaknesses last year, but that should not be the case this season. They had the league’s 13th ranked scoring defense last year. They should be around there this year and may even break into the top 10, like they were in 2010 (7th with 19.2 points per game allowed).

Grade: B+

Head Coach

Their Head Coach situation is complicated. Sean Payton is suspended for the year. Interim Head Coach Joe Vitt is suspended for the first 6 games of the season. Pete Carmichael Jr. is expected to be the Head Coach for the first 6 games of the season. He did a great job of calling the plays last year and he’s a great offensive mind who should keep things the same on offense even without Payton. However, the Saints will essentially have two different Head Coaches this year and neither of them have been the Head Coach before. Steve Spagnuolo is their only assistant with Head Coaching experience, but he’ll continue to coordinate the defense, which he should do a good job of. Still, if anything derails this team, it will be the coaching staff.

Grade: C

Overall

Under normal circumstances, this team might be my Super Bowl pick. They have one of the best offenses in the league and they have the talent defensively to be a top-10 scoring defense. They led the league in points differential last year with +208 and won 13 games. Last year, they might have been the league’s most well rounded team and, as bad as they are on the road, they almost beat the Packers in Lambeau week 1.

Over the last 3 years, they’re tied with the Patriots for most wins with a combined 37. Including playoffs, they lead the league with a combined 41 wins (Green Bay is at 40 and New England is at 39). This year, I think they’re an even more talented bunch, especially defensively with the addition of 4 new starters and a great new defensive coordinator. They’re the only elite offense that I actually trust to also be able to stop anyone.

But these aren’t normal circumstances. Drew Brees’ semi-holdout set them back in their offseason training and hurt team chemistry and morale, while BountyGate destroyed their coaching staff and gave them a major off the field distraction. Brees is back and will be under center this year, so this is still the favorite in a tough NFC South that really could be anyone’s (except maybe Tampa Bay, but even they’ll be improved). However, I think they’ll be a worse team wins wise in 2012 than they were in 2011.

Perhaps in 2013, once all of the off the field stuff has blown over, they can win the top seed in the NFC again and play 2 home games in the Superdome en route to the Super Bowl. As for this year, they’ll probably be the NFC’s #3 or #4 seed and have to play a road playoff game, which I don’t trust them to win, even though all of the off the field stuff could have blown over by then. Drew Brees has never won a road playoff game in his career (read that again, because that’s baffling). Neither has the Saints organization. They’ve lost in San Francisco and Seattle in each of the last 2 seasons on the road in the playoffs.

In the division, they have to face Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Carolina a combined 6 times. They have a tough schedule, but I think they’ll win all 3 of those home games and at least one on the road. I have them at 4-2 in the division. Outside of the division, they host Washington, Kansas City, early season San Diego, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. Except for the Philadelphia game, those could all be very easy games, even San Francisco, who beat them in Candlestick last year. The 49ers are not as good on the road and will find playing in the Superdome very tough, especially since I think they’re overrated. Their non-divisional road games are in Green Bay, Denver, Oakland, New York to play the Giants, and Dallas. With the exception of Oakland, those are all losable games for them and given their road struggles in the past, they could go 2-3 in those 5. That would put them at 11-5.

Projection: 11-5 1st in NFC South

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Minnesota Vikings 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Vikings

Offense

It’s crazy to think that the Vikings were in the NFC Championship game in 2009. 2010 was a lost year because they had a suddenly decrepit Brett Favre at quarterback and they won just 6 games. They started over in the 2011 NFL Draft, using the 12th pick in surprising fashion on Christian Ponder, widely considered a 2nd round pick. They also traded for Donovan McNabb, in hopes that his 2010 season was an aberration. It was not and McNabb was cut midseason, which forced Ponder to have to start before he was ready and the team finished at 3-13.

Adding insult to injury, their top offensive player, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL in a meaningless week 16 win over the Redskins. That win also dropped them out of the Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin sweepstakes. Both of 2011’s two win teams did very well for themselves in the draft. Indianapolis picked up Andrew Luck and St. Louis flipped Robert Griffin to the Redskins and picked up 1st round picks in the 2013 and 2014 NFL drafts. The Vikings, because they won week 16, were stuck at #3 and were forced to “settle” for Matt Kalil after trading down a spot with the Browns (picking up a 4th rounder in the process).

Things aren’t all bleak for the Vikings, however. Kalil will be a major upgrade at left tackle from the word go and will allow the team to more accurately evaluate Christian Ponder, who simply couldn’t have been properly evaluated with the lack of offensive supporting talent he had in 2011. If they hadn’t been able to do so, it would have set the organization back another year. They need to know if they have something with Ponder.

Quarterback

Speaking of Ponder, he didn’t play all that well last season. He completed 54.3% of his passes for 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. However, he was a mere rookie on a team with a terrible supporting cast and he didn’t look like a completely lost cause. He also picked up 219 yards on the ground. He led an offense that scored 21.3 points per game, good for a not terrible 19th in the league. In the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league.

He spent this offseason adding 20 pounds bulk to his frame, in an attempt to fix his two biggest weaknesses, arm strength and durability. He’ll have a full season under center and a better supporting cast. The team had a Pythagorean Expectation of 5.5 wins last year, significantly greater than their actual win total, so they should be a better team this year, especially since they are more talented overall. However, unless Ponder can break out as a legitimate top-12 quarterback, this team will have a tough time making the playoffs, especially in such a tough division.

Grade: C+

Running Back

The 22.9 points per game that Ponder led this offense to in 9 games was undoubtedly aided by Adrian Peterson. Peterson had yet another outstanding season, rushing for 970 yards and 12 touchdowns on 208 carries (4.7 YPC). In his 5 year career, he’s rushed for 6752 yards and 64 touchdowns on 1406 carries (4.8 YPC). However, he tore his ACL week 16 last year.

Peterson, who has no injury history in the NFL (missed 3 games from 2007-2010) is doing remarkably in his recovery and could be ready to go for week 1. He may even be able to participate in some of Training Camp. This wouldn’t be a completely unprecedented comeback from this injury as Wes Welker returned in 8 months to be ready week 1 for the 2010 season after getting hurt in January of 2010. Peterson was injured in December of 2011, so this recovery would actually be a little longer. And if anyone can do it, it’s Peterson.

However, Welker struggled in the 2010 season, catching just 86 passes for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns, by far his worst totals (aside from the touchdowns) in 5 years with the Patriots. It’s fair to think Peterson won’t be 100% either, even if he can make it back for week 1. The Vikings clearly agree as they plan to use Toby Gerhart extensively early in the season until Peterson can get his legs back under him and may even make Gerhart the early season starter.

They would be smart to do so because they probably won’t contend either way. They don’t want Peterson to suffer any further injury that could threaten his availability in 2013 and beyond. Gerhart is fully capable of being the starter. He’s clearly not Peterson, but the 2010 2nd round pick has rushed for 853 yards and 2 touchdowns on 190 carries (4.5 YPC) in 2 seasons. At the very least, he should split carries with Peterson early in the season. Peterson could have his worst season as a pro in 2012 (though that wouldn’t be saying much).

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The biggest upgrade the Vikings got this offseason was on the offensive line and it was much needed. The Vikings surrendered 49 sacks last year, tied for 5th most in the NFL. Ponder was pressured on 34.5% of his throws, 12th most in the NFL out of 36 eligible quarterbacks (25% of their team’s snaps). McNabb was even higher on that list, pressured on 41.1% of his throws, 2nd highest in the league behind only Tim Tebow.

It’s important that they protect Ponder, especially in his early years. They don’t want him to turn into David Carr and besides, it’s not like he’s been the most durable quarterback in his collegiate and professional career. Ponder also struggled under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of just 50.8% under pressure (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes), 4th worst in the league. That should improve in his 2nd year in the league, but he needs a strong offensive line in front of him.

Left tackle is the most important position on the offensive line and the Vikings were terrible at that spot last year. Bryant McKinnie, once a solid left tackle, showed up at 380 pounds out of the lockout and was promptly cut. Lacking a true replacement for him, they had to sign Charlie Johnson, who was fresh off of struggling mightily at left tackle in Indianapolis, protecting Peyton Manning, argubly the easiest quarterbacks in the league to protect.

In 2010, he allowed 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures. Unsurprisingly, he struggled protecting the blindside of Christian Ponder, who does not have Peyton Manning’s freakish ability to get rid of the ball in time to avoid sacks. Last season, Johnson had a -12.6 rating on ProFootballFocus and allowed 8 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties.

Drafting Matt Kalil was absolutely the right move, though they were reportedly considering Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon at that spot. Ponder needs to be protected to succeed and they can’t accurately evaluate him without getting him better protected. And why use the 12th overall pick on a player if you aren’t willing to do everything that is necessary to put yourself in a position to accurately evaluate him?

Kalil should be a solid left tackle from the word go in the NFL and Charlie Johnson will move to left guard. Johnson should be better off there than at left tackle. He’ll replace the departed Steve Hutchinson. Hutchinson was still an effective starter last year, but was cut because of his age and salary. Johnson will still be a downgrade.

The Vikings also let right guard Anthony Herrera go, but he won’t be nearly as missed. He was a poor starter who graded out with a -9.8 rating on ProFootballFocus last year. To replace him, the Vikings signed Geoff Schwartz. Schwartz missed all of last season with a hip injury, but he played very well in 2010 primarily at right guard, but also some at right tackle. He finished with a very impressive 12.3 rating. Still only heading into his age 26 season, he still has upside.

Schwartz will compete with Joe Berger for the right guard job. Berger made 7 starts last year, 1 at center, 4 at right guard, and 2 at left guard and graded out well with an 8.7 rating. He was a solid pass protector and a very good run blocker. Schwartz will likely win that starting job, leaving Berger as a utility offensive lineman on the interior again. Berger could push Charlie Johnson for the starting job at left guard if Johnson struggles at his new position. Berger played well enough last year to deserve a full time starting job in what’s now his age 30 season.

The Vikings may have not been a very good pass blocking team, but ProFootballFocus graded them out as the league’s top run blocking offensive line. The play of the departed Steve Hutchinson had something to do with that, but the play of either Schwartz or Berger will help make up for the loss, as will Johnson moving to a new position and Kalil coming in.

The play of center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt also had a lot to do with that. Sullivan was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked center both in terms of overall rating and run blocking. His overall rating was 22.5. He was also decent as a pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures, while committing only 1 penalty. Loadholt, meanwhile, struggled as a pass protector, but was ProFootballFocus’ top rated run blocking offensive tackle. He did allow 9 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 10 penalties. Like the Vikings offensive line as a whole, he run blocked well and did not pass protect well. The addition of Matt Kalil, however, will help with the latter.

Grade: B-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Another area the Vikings needed to upgrade this offseason was their receiving corps. Last year, only Percy Harvin was a reliable receiver for them. The Vikings made this a priority as well, but did not do as much as they did on the offensive line. The Vikings did sign Jerome Simpson. Simpson played well with 50 catches for 725 yards and 4 touchdowns as the Bengals’ #2 receiver last year. He’ll start opposite Percy Harvin, but he’ll have to serve a 3 game suspension first for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

Speaking of Harvin, he’s an incredibly talented player who could be due for a breakout year. In his last 11 games last year, he had 69 catches for 784 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 100 catches for 1140 yards and 9 touchdowns if extrapolated over 16 games. A healthy Christian Ponder behind an improved offensive line is clearly a very good thing for Harvin.

Harvin also figures to get more playing time. He made a stink about his playing time last month and rightfully so as the 623 snaps he played last year were 2nd on the team behind the mediocre Devin Aromashodu and 57th in the league at his position (and that’s not counting playoffs, which Harvin didn’t make). He’ll see more snaps this year after putting up a stink and he remains his team’s best receiver by far.

On 402 passing plays, Harvin was targeted 118 times, good for once every 3.41 passing plays, the best rate in the league. He caught 87 passes for 975 yards and 6 touchdowns on those 118 targets. If he sees the field as much as he deserves to this season, he could have a huge year. 100+ catches for 1200+ yards is not an outrageous prediction for him. He also rushed for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns on 52 attempts last year, an added bonus with him.

Fantasy football players should take note that he was the 8th rated fantasy receiver last year and that he’s currently going off the board 19th among wide receiver. I think 8th is his floor this year with a now 2nd year quarterback behind a better offensive line and as he gets more playing time. I have him as a top-5 fantasy football wide receiver heading into the season.

But enough about Harvin and on to the rest of the Vikings receivers. Mediocre veterans Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashodu will compete to start in Simpson’s absence, as will 2011 7th round pick Stephen Burton, who the organization is high on. They also have a pair of 4th round receivers from Arkansas, Greg Childs, and Jarius Wright. Neither of those guys are going to be cut, obviously. Harvin won’t be cut and neither will Jerome Simpson.

That leaves Aromashodu, Jenkins, and Burton to not only compete for a temporary starting job, but also for either 1 or 2 roster spots (probably two, at least to start the season). Jenkins and Aromashodu are squarely on the roster bubble, especially if the younger, cheaper Burton continues to upstage them in practice. Whoever starts in Simpson’s absence will play outside in 3-wide receiver sets when he returns, as Percy Harvin will move into the slot. Whoever is the runner up in that competition will serve that role in Simpson’s absence, or, on the off chance that he’s not the on the roster, that will leave Greg Childs to be the #3 receiver early in the year.

At tight end, the Vikings have a 2nd year tight end in Kyle Rudolph waiting to break out. Rudolph saw significantly fewer snaps than veteran starter Visanthe Shiancoe last season, but played much better than him. The 2011 2nd round pick could have a great year. He blocks well and pass catches well. The Vikings needed a #2 tight end behind him with Shiancoe leaving, but rather than resigning Shiancoe for cheap or another tight end for cheap, the Vikings spent 25 million dollars over 5 years on John Carlson.

That might have been the most head scratching move any team made this offseason. Not only did the Vikings not need a 5 million dollar per year #2 tight end, but Carlson missed all of last season with injury and was not even worth 5 million per year before his injury. Carlson caught just 31 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown in 2010 and it’s not like he’s a good blocker or anything. There’s a reason the Seahawks signed Zach Miller to start instead of him last offseason, even before he got hurt. The Vikings plan to use a lot of two-tight end sets to combat their lack of proven depth at receiver, but Carlson will not be worth his salary.

Ponder should be a decent starting quarterback this year in his first full season as a starter. He has a better supporting cast than last year, thanks to some additions on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. Adrian Peterson is not 100%, but he should still be able to form a solid tandem with Toby Gerhart and they run behind an excellent run blocking offense. They could actually have a decent offense. They ranked 19th in scoring last year and 16th with Ponder under center. They could creep up into the top-15.

Grade: C+

Defense

However, defense is the problem area. They ranked 31st in the league in opponent’s scoring, allowing 28.1 points per game. They ranked 30th against the pass with 8.1 YPA, despite a league leading 50 sacks (tied with Philadelphia). Their once proud defense is less than a shadow of its former self and unless that changes or the offense somehow becomes elite, I can’t see this team being relevant in 2012.

Defensive Line

I mentioned the Vikings’ 50 sacks last year. That was the result of strong defensive line play. I can’t imagine how bad their pass defense would have been without it. Their strong defensive line play contributed to their 6th ranked run defense, though unfortunately this is a passing league so that’s not as important.

The main reason they ranked 1st in the league in sacks was the 24 sacks that Jared Allen had, one shy of an NFL record. Allen had 24 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 594 pass rush snaps, good for a pass rush rate of 11.1%. That’s certainly not bad, but that’s not nearly as good as the 24 sacks would suggest. In fact, that number suggests that Allen got pretty lucky to get the 24 sacks he had, as you can imagine anyone would have to be to get that high of a sacks total.

Allen has been the one of the league’s best pass rushers since his rookie year in 2004, with 105 sacks in 8 years and even he’d never exceeded 15.5 sacks before last season. He also was only ProFootballFocus’ 8th rated defensive end as a pass rusher last year, thanks to his 8th ranked pass rush efficiency rating (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(pressures)/pass rush snaps). That number of 24 doesn’t seem replicable at all. He’ll have a great year, don’t get me wrong. But he could have 10 fewer sacks than he did last year and still have a great year. It would, however, be a big hit to the Vikings’ sacks total.

Allen also plays the run well and ranked 5th at his position on ProFootballFocus with a 35.1 rating. He was also one of just 4 players at his position to grade out with a rating above 10 as a pass rusher and run stuffer (Trent Cole, Terrell Suggs, Jason Pierre Paul). He also led his position in regular season snaps played with 1044, 70 more than the next closest player. In fact, even counting playoffs, only Jason Pierre Paul, who went to the Super Bowl, played more snaps than him. He doesn’t take plays off and he plays incredibly well.

Opposite him, Brian Robison also played well. He was ProFootballFocus’ 20th ranked 4-3 defensive end with a rating of 13.0, on the strength of 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 533 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.1%. The 1st year starter was undoubtedly helped by having Jared Allen opposite him, just like the guy who he replaced, Ray Edwards, was. Edwards sucked as a pass rusher in his first season away from Minnesota.

On the inside of their defensive line, the Vikings have yet another stud, defensive tackle Kevin Williams. Williams is also helped by Jared Allen’s presence, but he’s played at a Pro Bowl caliber level before and after Allen, ever since the Vikings took him 9th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. He played equally well as a run stuffer and a pass protector last year and had a 17.8 rating overall, good for 8th at his position. He’s heading into his age 32 season, but is showing no signs of slowing down.

The black sheep of the Vikings’ strong defensive line is Letroy Guion. Guion is a decent run stuffer, but offers very little pass rush and graded out negatively on ProFootballFocus. He rotates with Fred Evans and Remi Ayodele, similar players, at the position. Ayodele is not back with the team in 2012 after signing with the Saints.

The Vikings are hoping Christian Ballard, a 2011 4th round pick who is moving from end back to his collegiate position of tackle, can break out and not only play well in some snaps as a situational pass rusher, but maybe even emerge as a starter. He’s a talented player who could have gone in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft had it not been for a positive marijuana test at The Combine. As Ballard moves from end to tackle, Everson Griffen, a solid situational player, will see more snaps at end as a backup. He can also play some linebacker.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

Speaking of linebacker, the Vikings have a trio that run stuff well, but do not cover well. Chad Greenway is the leader of the bunch. The highly paid linebacker ranked 9th among 4-3 outside linebackers against the run, but graded out negatively overall because he ranked dead last at his position in coverage. He allowed 67 completions on 86 attempts (77.9%) for 717 yards (8.3 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions, good for a QB rating allowed of 120.8, worst out of 29 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers (50% of their team’s snaps).

Departed middle linebacker EJ Henderson was a very similar player. He ranked 3rd among middle linebackers against the run, but dead last in coverage. He allowed 38 completions on 46 attempts (82.6%) for 372 yards (8.1 YPA),  2 touchdowns, and no interceptions, good for a QB rating allowed of 114.9, 5th at his position among eligible players (60% of their team’s snaps). The aged linebacker is gone, but Jasper Brinkley, his replacement, is a very similar player. The only difference is that the 2009 5th round pick is incredibly inexperienced, playing just 264 career snaps. He also missed all of last year with groin and hip problems.

The 3rd linebacker is EJ Henderson’s younger brother Erin Henderson. Erin was only a two down run stuffing linebacker last year and came off the field in sub packages when they used only two linebackers, but he ironically had the best coverage rating of the bunch, though that’s not saying much and he was not asked to cover much. Henderson, however, did an amazing job against the run. Despite limited playing time, he ranked 4th at his position with a 21.8 rating, including 3rd against the run. He’ll be counted on in more of a 3 down role this year as it’s expected to be Brinkley who leaves in field in sub packages. If he can break out as a true 3 down linebacker, it will be a big boost to the Vikings’ defense. He might just be a two down stuffer like everyone else though.

The fact that none of their linebackers can cover is incredibly bad because the Vikings run a cover 2 scheme which relies on their linebackers covering a lot. Their linebackers’ poor play in coverage last year was almost as much at fault for their 30th ranked pass defense as their actual secondary was, though that secondary was not very good either.

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Secondary

I’ll get to the cornerbacks in a minute, but I’d like to start with the safeties. A cover 2 scheme like the Vikings run relies on not only good coverage linebackers, but also good coverage safeties. The Vikings didn’t have either of those last season. At free safety, Jamarca Sanford was absolutely awful, ranking 82th among 84 safeties with a -17.7 rating and dead last in coverage. He surrendered 20 completions on 31 attempts (64.5%) for 344 yards (11.1 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. That was good for a 114.8 QB rating allowed, good for 4th worst among eligible safeties (60% of their team’s snaps).

Sanford has been rightfully benched in favor of Harrison Smith, who the Vikings traded back up into the 1st round to grab. He’s just a rookie so it’s tough to count on him for much, but he’ll be better than Sanford. At strong safety, Mistral Raymond and Husain Abdullah split time last year, but neither played well. Adbullah even had a worse QB rating allowed than Sanford (133.6). He’s gone, so 5th round rookie RJ Blanton will compete with Raymond for the starting job. Blanton could sadly win that job, despite the fact that he is a 5th round rookie.

At cornerback, things are a little better, but not much. Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook both return and will start. Both are solid players, but Winfield is heading into his age 35 season and has struggled with injuries of late. Cook, meanwhile, missed a lot of time last year with a team issued suspension for off the field issues. The 2010 2nd round pick played alright last year and definitely has upside, but he’s still unproven, having played just 498 snaps in his 2 year career. 3rd round rookie Josh Robinson is expected to be the nickel cornerback as Cedric Griffin, who actually did a decent job, is gone. That’s 3 rookies who could play significant roles in the secondary for the Vikings.

With 3 rookies possibly playing a significant role in the secondary, and minimal talent elsewhere, unless Winfield, coming off a broken collarbone, somehow plays 16 games at an elite level at age 35, the Vikings will struggle to stop the pass next season. It doesn’t help that none of their linebackers can cover either, something that’s a requirement in their scheme. They’ll rush the passer pretty well (though they won’t have 50 sacks again unless Jared Allen goes for 24 again) and they stop the run well, but if they can’t stop anyone through the air, in spite of a great pass rush, this will once again be one of the worst defenses in the league. They allowed a brutal 34 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in the air last year and allowed a QB rating of 107.6. For reference, only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees recorded QB ratings higher than that last year.

Grade: C

Head Coach

Leslie Frazier got the interim coach tag removed after finishing 3-3 with a previously 3-7 team in 2011. However, he responded with just a 3-13 season in his first year as Head Coach. It’s possible his strong finish to the 2010 season was just a fluke and/or the result of the team firing Brad Childress, who the players weren’t responding to any more, rather than anything Frazier did. He’s still inexperienced, but another bad year in 2012 could lead to his name coming up in the annual “coaches who could get fired” rumblings on sports talk shows and websites around the country. A decent year in 2012 should buy him another year though, but if he can’t make the playoffs in 2013, he will probably be gone.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Vikings will be better than the 3 win team they were in 2011. Even their Pythagorean Expectation said they should have won 5.5 games last year, but a 2-10 record in games decided by 7 or fewer did them in. That stuff tends to even out so if they get in 12 games decided by 7 or fewer in 2012, it’s reasonable to expect them to go 6-6, which would put them at 6 wins overall, right around their Pythagorean Expectation from last year. They’re also a little bit more talented as they get guys back in the secondary and they add talent on offense at wide receiver and on the offensive line.

However, unless Christian Ponder breaks out and establishes himself as a top-12 quarterback, this team doesn’t have a chance to be a playoff team this year. They’re not going to have Adrian Peterson at full strength. Their receiving corps is still on the thin side and their offensive line is just average. Meanwhile, their defense can’t stop anyone. They couldn’t last year, despite recovering 15 fumbles, tied for most in the league. That type of thing is as much luck as it is skill and may even be more luck than skill. On top of all this, they have a brutal schedule. A breakout year from Christian Ponder would definitely help, but I don’t see one coming.

Speaking of that schedule, they went 0-6 in the division last year. Given that they might have the toughest divisional competition in the league, that could happen again. A 0-6 divisional record would leave them needing to go 6-4 outside of the division to even win 6 games. At best, they’ll win a game or two in the division.

Outside of the division, they host Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tennessee, Arizona, and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville and Arizona are definitely winnable games and the other 3 aren’t hard. They could win 2 or 3 of these games. They also go to Indianapolis, Washington, Seattle, St. Louis, and Houston. Houston and Washington are tough teams, while Seattle is a tough place to play, and St. Louis and Indianapolis will both be improved this year. At best, I think this is a 6 win team.

Update: No real reason why I’m adding the extra win, but when I made updates elsewhere, I was left needing to assign an extra win somewhere and the Vikings were right on the 5/6 borderline.

Projection: 6-10 4th in NFC North

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Detroit Lions 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Lions

Offense

It’s amazing that just a few years ago this team didn’t win a single game. They were completely devoid of talent and in just a few short years, Jim Schwartz and Martin Mayhew have reversed years of terrible decisions by the Matt Millen regime. In 2008 they didn’t win a game and in 2009 they won just 2. However, in 2010, they won 6, including their last 4 and last year they won 10 and made the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

Can the Lions take the next step in 2012 and become a legitimate Super Bowl contender? Some would say yes, but doing so would require the team to improve its win total for the 4th straight year, something that hasn’t happened in the NFL in over a decade. This team also finished the year just 5-7, including playoffs, after starting the year 5-0. Even in their 5-0 start, they needed two massive comebacks and they needed another one to beat Carolina later in the season. In fact, they needed 4 comebacks of 13+ points last year, an NFL record.

Defense was a major issue as they allowed 24.2 points per game, 23rd in the league and worse that the much scrutinized defenses of the Packers and Patriots. The 29.6 points per game they scored on offense, 4th in the league, helped bail them out, but they can’t keep counting on their offense to execute huge comebacks after the defense puts them in a hole early. They are also a very young and undisciplined team on and off the field, leading the league in penalties and personal fouls last season, while having 7 players arrested this offseason.

Quarterback

One thing that’s certainly not a problem for the Lions is their passing offense and that’s a very good thing in today’s NFL. Matt Stafford was the quietest of the three quarterbacks to surpass 5000 yards last year, but he did indeed do so, answering questions about his health and his ability that existed before the season. Heading into 2011, Stafford had missed 19 games in his first 2 NFL seasons and had completed just 54.5% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, and 19 touchdowns to 21 interceptions.

However, last year, he played all 16 games and completed 63.5% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA and 41 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. His passing stats are inflated some by the fact that his 663 passing attempts led the NFL, but he’s still clearly a franchise quarterback. The one thing Stafford will have to avoid in 2012 is injuries. I know he made it through last season unscathed, but he does have an injury history and while backup Shaun Hill is a decent quarterback, their passing offense is too important to their team for them to lose Stafford for an extended period of time.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Matt Stafford certainly has no shortage of weapons to throw to. While Stafford answered questions about his health and ability in 2011, Calvin Johnson answered a different question: what happens when he has a health and able quarterback under center? Johnson’s answer: 96 catches for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. He simply has no holes in his game. He’s the type of wide receiver you create in Madden when you want to cheat. Speaking of Madden, Johnson is on the cover this year, which normally spells doom. However, I wouldn’t be too worried.

Megatron isn’t their only receiver, but he certainly makes life a lot easier for the other receivers. 2011 2nd round rookie Titus Young will compete for the #2 receiver job with Nate Burleson. Young is fully expected to win that job over Burleson. Young is an athletic receiver waiting to break out, while Burleson is just a marginal player at this stage in his career.

Titus Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns as a mere rookie last year, despite 84 targets. Burleson caught 73 passes for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns on 110 targets. If Young had Burleson’s 110 targets last year, he would have caught 63 passes for 795 yards and 8 touchdowns if you extrapolate his numbers.

Heading into his 2nd season in the league, he could surpass even those numbers and maybe even approach 1000 yards. Burleson, meanwhile, will be a solid slot receiver even in his age 31 season. It’s not impossible that Burleson will be pushed for even that job by 2012 2nd round pick Ryan Broyles later in the season, once Broyles is fully healthy again. Burleson likely won’t be with the team in 2013 and the Lions will go into 2013 with 3 young and very talented wide receivers and be able to air it out with the best of them.

Stafford also has two tight ends to throw to. Brandon Pettigrew caught 83 passes for 777 yards and 5 touchdowns last year and Tony Scheffler caught 26 passes for 347 yards and 6 touchdowns as the “move tight end.” Stafford has plenty of options in the receiving game and the Lions pass more than any team in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

One of the reasons that the Lions led the league by passing on 65.2% of their offensive snaps (not counting sacks) last year was simply that they couldn’t run. Injuries took their toll at the running back position and the Lions basically didn’t even try to establish a successful running game. Jahvid Best led the way with 84 carries and 4 different players had between 58 and 84 carries.

The Lions received their 1st blow in the offseason when 2011 2nd round pick Mikel Leshoure tore his Achilles, leaving him out for the season. Concussions ended Jahvid Best’s season 6 games into it, after he began to look like a true feature back early in the season, rushing for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns on 84 carries, while catching 27 passes for 287 yards and another score. Kevin Smith took over from there, but even he struggled with injuries and the Lions were left giving key carries to Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams down the stretch.

It’s no coincidence the Lions were 5-1 when Best was looking like a feature back, but can they run well enough this season to have that kind of well rounded offense all year? The Lions either think so or don’t care because they didn’t draft a running back. Mikel Leshoure will miss the first 2 games of the season with a suspension, but he’ll be the lead back when he returns. Best will be utilized in a Darren Sproles type role, in order to keep him healthy and best utilize his speed and pass catching abilities. Smith will provide extra depth. If Leshoure, who doesn’t have an injury history prior to last year, can be a true feature back and Best can stay healthy, the Lions’ offense could be even better in 2012, but those are big ifs.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

Of course, if Matt Stafford is injured, the Lions have no chance of improving their offense in 2012. I’ve mentioned Stafford’s injury history in the past. The offensive line will have an important job keeping him from hitting the turf. They did their job in 2011. Though they permitted 36 sacks, they did so even though they led the league in passing attempts. ProFootballFocus ranked them 4th in pass blocking efficiency, while Stafford was only pressured on 24.2% of his throws, less than every eligible quarterback (50% of their team’s snaps) other than two (Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Hasselbeck). They were pretty bad as run blockers, however, another reason that I don’t expect the Lions to have a good running game in 2012.

Jeff Backus is still their left tackle. He allowed 7 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures last year, which sounds bad, but think about how often they passed. He wasn’t a bad run blocker either and he graded out very middle of the pack with a -2.1 rating on ProFootballFocus. However, he’s heading into his age 35 season so I don’t know how much longer he can do this.

With that in mind, the Lions used the 23rd overall pick on Riley Reiff. Reiff will play the right side in 2012 and compete with Gosder Cherilus there. However, Cherilus is a free agent this offseason and Backus might not be brought back in 2013 at age 36 at a salary of 2.75 million, so Reiff will get plenty of opportunity in 2013 and beyond. In 2012, he could beat out Cherilus. Cherilus allowed 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, which actually isn’t too bad considering how much they passed. However, he’s below average as a run blocker. It’ll be an interesting battle to watch in camp.

On the interior, both guards Rob Sims and Stephen Peterman graded out above average with ratings of 6.5 and 3.0 respectively. Neither run blocked well, but they ranked 7th and 14th respectively at their position as pass protectors. Sims allowed 1 sack, 9 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures, while Peterson allowed 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures.

Sandwiched between them is Dominic Raiola, another solid pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 10 quarterback pressures. However, he ranked 31st at his position out of 35 as a run blocker. Like Backus, he’s no spring chicken as he heads into his age 34 season. The one issue for the Lions upfront is depth. Reiff can step in at either tackle position and they probably wouldn’t miss a beat, but all 5 starters missed a combined 2 starts last year and aside from the 5 starters, their backups got to play just 173 snaps. If a player or two gets hurt, it could have a noticeable effect on the Lions’ line.

However, if everyone stays healthy again, there’s no reason why the Lions can’t continue to protect Matt Stafford well. It would help if they could run a little bit more and throw a little bit less, but their offensive line doesn’t run block well and they have a bunch of unproven and/or injury prone players at running back. Stafford has plenty of receivers to throw to so the Lions should have a top-5 offense again, but I don’t think they’re quite on the level that Green Bay or New England is or New Orleans was last year (a lot of unknowns with that team this year).

Grade: B

Defense

But offense was not the problem with this team last year. Their defense is the reason why they had to mount 4 comebacks from down 13 or more to win. Until they get things fixed on that side of the ball, they won’t be serious Super Bowl contenders. They ranked 23rd in the league in scoring defense last year, worse than even Green Bay or New England.

Defensive Line

One thing the Lions have going for them is a great pass rush. They ranked 10th in the league in sacks with 41 last year, after 44 the year before. They have a lot of depth on the defensive line and rotate guys often. Ndamukong Suh is the biggest name and one of their leaders in snaps played in 2011 with 839. He did that despite missing 2 games with suspension after stomping on a Packers offensive lineman.

Suh will have to control himself. He was also penalized 8 times, on top of that 2 game suspension. In 2010, he had 10 penalties. Another thing he’ll have to work on is his play against the run. That’s an issue for the Lions’ defensive line as a whole as they ranked 24th against the run with 4.5 YPC. He is a good pass rusher, however, with 5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 520 pass rush snaps, for a solid 7.3% rate.

Suh will start opposite Nick Fairley, the 13th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Fairley didn’t play much in 2011 thanks to injuries, but he had a 7.4 rate on 274 snaps last year on ProFootballFocus. The upside is definitely there. The issue is he’ll likely begin the season with a 2-3 game suspension thanks to his offseason antics.

Corey Williams will start in his absence as he did last year. Williams was pretty mediocre as a starter last year. He’s a solid run stuffer, but committed 8 penalties and didn’t contribute much as a pass rusher. On 451 pass rush snaps, he had 3 sacks, 3 quarterback pressures, and 19 quarterback hits, good for a rate of 5.5%. Sammie Lee Hill is a similar player. Once Fairley is back, Williams and Hill will be rotational players behind two talented starters, which is better for the Lions’ defensive line.

Outside at end, the Lions also will rotate 4 players, Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Lawrence Jackson, and Willie Young. Avril and Vanden Bosch played the bulk of the snaps last year. Avril will continue to do that again this year. Avril has yet to sign his franchise tender and is planning to skip at least the early part of Training Camp. He won’t miss any games, but he could struggle some if he fails to stay in shape on his own, like Chris Johnson and Darrelle Revis in the last 2 years. At his best, Avril is a great pass rusher and a poor run stuffer. Last year he had 12 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures last year, good for a sack/pressure/hit on 11.5% of all pass rush snaps. He was penalized 12 times.

Vanden Bosch, meanwhile, should see fewer snaps this season. There are a few reasons for that. The main one is that he struggled last year. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd worst graded 4-3 defensive end with a -10.5 rating. The second reason is his age, as he heads into his age 34. The third reason is how well backups Willie Young and Lawrence Jackson played last year. On 410 combined pass rush snaps, they had 8 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures, good for a 12.2% pass rush rate. They also held up against the run and had a 12.4 rating and an 11.6 rating respectively. It’s always risky to give guys more playing time, because they might not play as well, but the Lions have to give it a try.

Vanden Bosch had 8 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 495 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 8.7%. He struggled against the run as well. Only 2 players at his position did worse in that area. The Lions have a talented pass rushing defensive line, but they don’t stop the run well and they’re often penalized. They should be better this year, however, with Fairley, Jackson, and Young getting more playing time.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Lions also have a solid bunch at linebacker. Stephen Tulloch is one of the league’s best middle linebackers with a 17.8 rating, good for 9th in the league. He’s equally good in coverage and against the run. They resigned him long term this offseason, but he has been dealing with leg problems this offseason, so that’s something to monitor in Training Camp and the Preseason.

On the outside, they have Justin Durant and DeAndre Levy. Durant is an alright two down run stuffer who comes off the field on passing downs and 2-linebacker sets. He struggles in coverage, but stops the run well enough to grade out above average with a 3.3 rating. Levy, meanwhile, stays on the field most of the time, but struggled last year. He was better in 2010 as a middle linebacker, but his -8.1 rating was 34th out of 42 4-3 outside linebackers last year after the position change. He’s a free agent after the season and should leave to go somewhere where he can play the middle.

Grade: B

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Secondary

The secondary is the Lions’ worst group on their roster and the biggest reason why they struggled to stop anyone last year. Their pass rush can make them look alright, but if the Lions are serious about winning the Super Bowl, they’ll have to do better than Chris Houston and Aaron Berry at cornerback. With that in mind, they used a 3rd and a 5th round pick on the position, taking Dwight Bentley and Chris Greenwood, but they won’t have any impact until 2013, if ever.

Chris Houston is a good player, who allowed 46 completions on 87 attempts (52.9%) for 593 yards (6.8 YPA), 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties. However, Aaron Berry has never been a starter in the NFL. He played alright on the slot last year, but he’s definitely unproven. Meanwhile, Jacob Lacey will play on the slot, unless he can beat out Berry for the starting job, which is unlikely. Lacey struggled as a starter for the Colts last year.

At safety, Louis Delmas is solid in coverage, but really struggled against the run last year, ranking 3rd worst at his position against the run. His overall -8.5 rating ranked him 66th out of 84 players. Next to him, Amari Spievey is even worse, with a -16.1 rating, good for 81th at his position. He struggled both in coverage and against the run.

The Lions ranked 23th in scoring defense last year with 24.2 points per game allowed. In 2010, they ranked 19th with 23.1 points per game allowed. They don’t have a lot of talent in the secondary and they can’t stop the run. They rush the passer well, which helps their pass defense look better than they are, but this isn’t a very good defense. I don’t expect them to be much better this season. Nick Fairley, Lawrence Jackson, and Willie Young will play more, which should help, but this team suffered very few injuries last year, so that could hurt them in 2012. They also didn’t use a draft pick on defense until the 3rd round and none of their rookies will have much impact in 2012, based on where they are located on the depth chart right now.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Jim Schwartz deserves some blame for the Lions’ immaturity on and off the field, but he also deserves a ton of credit for the Lions’ turn around. He took over a winless team in 2009 and has won 18 games in the last 3 years and got them to the playoffs with a record of 10-6 last year. He’s definitely a solid coach, but if the Lions struggle this year, his job could be on the line because of how often the Lions are penalized and how much they struggle with discipline off the field.

Grade: B

Overall

The Lions have improved their win total in each of the last 3 years. I don’t expect them to do so this year because they would mean they’d have done it in each of the last 4 years, which hasn’t happened with any team in at least a decade. To improve your win total that much, you need to have a lot of things go right.

So what will go wrong for the Lions this year? It could be a number of things. Maybe Matt Stafford will miss a few games with injuries. Maybe their penalties will do them in. Maybe their defense won’t improve and they won’t be able to come back from 13 point deficits 4 times. Maybe all of their offseason distractions will be too much for them. Maybe they will continue the play that caused them to go 5-7 after a 5-0 start last year, including playoffs. Maybe a tougher schedule will do them in (they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record in 2011, going 0-6 in those games, including playoffs). Maybe the Madden Curse will strike down Calvin Johnson (only half kidding).

Speaking of that schedule, they have to face Chicago and Green Bay 4 times, obviously. I think both of those teams are better than them, so while they could sweep Minnesota, I have them going 3-3 in the division at best (last year, they were 3-3). Outside of the division, they host St. Louis, Seattle, Houston, Indianapolis, and Atlanta. St. Louis, Seattle, and Indianapolis are all winnable games, but Houston and Atlanta will be tougher, especially after the latter beat them at home last year. They also have trips to San Francisco, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and Arizona.

They play 6 teams who had winning records in 2011 and 8 teams I project to have winning records in 2012. They didn’t beat a single team with a winning record last year and their only win against a playoff team came against the 8-8 Broncos. I could definitely see them winning 7 or 8 games, given all of the things that could go wrong.

Projection: 7-9 3rd in NFC North

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Chicago Bears 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Bears

Offense

The Bears were off to a 7-3 start last year, one year after going 11-5 and making it to the NFC Championship game. In my opinion, the Bears’ 7-3 start last year was more impressive. Their 11-5 2010 record was not fully indicative of how they played. They had a Pythagorean Expectation of just 9.4 wins and that was in spite of the fact that their 11 wins were against a 6-10 Detroit team when Calvin Johnson’s game winning touchdown was overturned, against the 6-10 Cowboys, against the Packers when the Packers committed 19 penalties, against the 2-14 Panthers, against a then winless Bills team in a game where both teams scored 3 touchdowns and no field goals, twice against the 6-10 Vikings, against the Dolphins and their 3rd string quarterback, against the Asante Samuel-less Eagles, against the 6-10 Lions again, and against the Jets. In the playoffs, they beat the sub .500 Seahawks. They only beat 3 .500+ teams and all 3 of those games were at home.

Last year, however, they averaged 26.8 points per game in their first 10 and allowed just 20.7 per. Over 16 games, that’s 429 points for and 331 points against, good for a Pythagorean Expectation of 10.4 wins, which would have been 9th in the NFL. However, then they lost Jay Cutler for the season and Matt Forte went down for the season the following week. They went 1-5 the rest of the way to finish 8-8 and were starting their 3rd string quarterback and 3rd quarterback running back late in the season.

However, the Bears definitely have hope going in the 2012 season. Cutler and Forte are both back, with the later now signed long term. Brandon Marshall was brought in, giving Jay Cutler the first legitimate receiving option he’s had since being traded to Chicago from Denver. Cutler and Marshall combined for 206 catches for 2590 yards and 13 touchdowns from 2007-2008 in Denver and the Broncos even brought in Cutler’s former quarterback coach, Jeremy Bates, who Cutler worked with in Denver. Mike Martz is gone, a good thing because the Bears never had the offensive line talent to make his scheme work. The Bears’ offense could have a strong year this year to compliment a defense that allowed just 21.3 points per game last year (14th).

Quarterbacks

The biggest difference between the 2010 Bears and the 2011 Bears was Jay Cutler. A brief glance at Cutler’s stats wouldn’t show anything special, as he completed 58.0% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, and 13 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. However, he was very efficient and made the most of a terrible offensive line. Despite being pressured on 38.6% of passing plays, 6th most among eligible quarterbacks (25% of their team’s snaps), Cutler was only sacked on 17.3% of his pressured snaps, good for 14th out of 36 eligible quarterbacks. Meanwhile, his 66.0% accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) under pressure was 4th.

He did all of this despite a terrible receiving corps led in catches and snaps played by Roy Williams, who, as of this writing, is still without a job. He did it behind a terrible offensive line that allowed 49 sacks and managed to take just 23 sacks in 10 games, while the other quarterbacks took 26 sacks in 6 games. He also did it in a system under Mike Martz that this team just did not have the offensive line talent for. With an improved receiving corps and Martz gone, Cutler could have his best season in Chicago this year. And if Cutler were to get injured again this year, they wouldn’t be nearly as screwed as new backup Jason Campbell is a veteran, proven starter and one of the league’s best backups.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Of course, Cutler did have a lot of help from Matt Forte, who was on pace for his best season as a starter before getting hurt. Through 8 games, Matt Forte had 1241 yards from scrimmage, on pace for 2482 yards, which would have been the 2nd highest total in NFL history behind Chris Johnson’s 2009 season. He finished last year with 997 yards and 3 touchdowns on 203 carries (4.9 YPC) with 52 catches for 490 yards. He was ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked running back last year, despite getting hurt, and broke the 5th most tackles in the NFL, breaking 39.

The 4 ½ games he missed last season with a knee injury were the first games he’s missed in his career, even though the Bears reportedly were hesitant to give him a long term deal because of his “injury history,” before eventually caving in and paying him. He’s still only heading into his age 27 season with 1014 career carries and coming off a career season in terms of YPC and catches per game so he should have another strong season in 2012.

The Bears signed Michael Bush this offseason and, while there was a lot of controversy being made about his signing since he was the starter in Oakland last year in place of an injured Darren McFadden, he was only signed to be a pure backup and insurance in case Forte didn’t sign and held out. He’s a talented backup though and will be good for the Bears around the goal line.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Cutler’s receiving corps didn’t give him a lot of help last year, but that will be different this year. Roy Williams led the team in snaps played and catches (with 37) and he is still unemployed as of this writing. The Bears brought in Brandon Marshall from Miami. Marshall is a legitimate #1 receiver, who has caught at least 80 passes and had over 1000 receiving yards in each of the last 5 seasons, including the last two in Miami with poor quarterback play. He had his best two seasons in from 2007-2008 with Jay Cutler, catching 206 passes for 2590 yards and 13 touchdowns combined. Cutler also had his best two years in that time, completing 681 of 1083 (62.9%) for 8023 yards (7.4 YPA), 45 touchdowns, and 32 interceptions.

Marshall wasn’t the only addition to the Bears’ receiving corps as the Bears used a 2nd round pick on Alshon Jeffery. Jeffery will compete with Earl Bennett and Devin Hester for positioning on the depth chart. Bennett struggled last year thanks to injuries, but he caught 100 passes for 1278 yards and 5 touchdowns from 2009-2010. He’s a solid slot receiver.

Hester, meanwhile, should start the year as the 4th receiver. There have been reports that Hester will be the starter this year, but other reports have said he’ll be a depth receiver only. I lean with the latter because the Bears have unsuccessfully been trying to convert him into a starting receiver for years, before eventually realizing he’s more valuable to them if he focuses solely on being a return man. That would leave Jeffery to start opposite Brandon Marshall.

At tight end, the Bears have Kellen Davis and 4th round rookie Evan Rodriguez. Davis only caught 18 passes for 206 yards and 5 touchdowns last year in his first year as a starter, but tight ends never produce in Mike Martz’ offense. He does have upside and, at the very least, he’s a good blocker and end zone threat at 6-7 267. Rodriguez, meanwhile, is a 4th round rookie who will compliment him well as a “move” tight end.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

Cutler’s offensive line is another group that didn’t help him out. He was pressured on 38.6% of his passes, 6th most in the NFL, and though he only took 23 sacks in 10 games, his backups were sacked 26 times in 6 games. The offensive line is not a talented bunch, but Mike Martz’ scheme always made them look worse than they were by putting too much pressure on them to block for an extended period of time.

Left tackle J’Marcus Webb was the worst offender again. A 2010 7th round pick, offensive line coach Mike Tice loves him, but he hasn’t played well. Last year, he surrendered 12 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures, while committing 14 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. With a -26.2 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 62nd ranked offensive tackle out of 73. He’ll have competition for the starting job from Chris Williams, who played left guard last year. Williams was originally drafted in the 1st round in 2008 to be the left tackle, but he’s played everywhere on the line except center since being drafted and has struggled to find a home. He might be the better option, if only by default.

If Williams does not win the left tackle job, he could move back to guard where, relative to the rest of the offensive line, he actually played alright last year. In 9 games before a season ending wrist injury, he graded out with a -9.7 rating, best among the 5 offensive linemen who played the most snaps for the Bears last year. Allowing 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures, he was better as a pass protector than a run blocker. He deserves a starting job somewhere on this line in 2012.

Also competing for the two guard spots are Lance Louis, Chris Spencer, Edwin Williams, and Chilo Rachal. The Bears have a lot of guys competing for spots up front in order to make sure they’re starting the best 5 and I think it’s for the best that they’re doing that. Louis and Spencer really struggled last year as starters, with a -35.6 rating and a -12.4 rating respectively. Louis spent most of last year as the right tackle in place of an injured Gabe Carimi, while Spencer was the starting right guard. Louis ranked 70th out of 73 tackles, while Spencer ranked 55th out of 76 guards.

Edwin Williams, meanwhile, was their best offensive lineman with a 0.5 rating last year, playing primarily at left guard in place of an injured Chris Williams. He has versatility and can play at both guard and center. He deserves a starting job, but might not end up getting one. Rachal, meanwhile, was once a 2nd round pick and a solid starter in San Francisco, but weight issues cost him his job.

He spent this offseason getting back into shape and could be a steal for the Bears at guard this season. He’s now down to 310 pounds, after once weighing 340. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked guard in 2010 and he’s only heading into his age 26 season. Rachal and Edwin Williams deserve to start at guard, with Chris Williams starting at left tackle, but it might not happen like that.

The only two starting spots set in stone are center and right tackle where Roberto Garza and Gabe Carimi respectively will start. Garza was awful last year in his first season at center, with a -19.7 rating, good for 2nd worst among all centers. He was solid in pass protection with 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, while committing 3 penalties, but he was an awful run blocker. Carimi, meanwhile, barely played, playing 100 snaps thanks to injury, but he was a 1st round pick in 2011 and played well when he did play. He should be their best offensive lineman in 2012.

The Bears’ offensive line won’t be as bad as it’s been in the last couple of years because Mike Martz is gone and because they will be holding a lot of open competition to make sure they have their 5 best linemen out there. Jay Cutler is a quarterback who has great pocket presence so he’ll be fine behind a mediocre line. Cutler will also having an improved receiving corps. With Cutler and Forte healthy, the Bears could be a top-10 offense. Believe it or not, the 26.7 points per game they scored in their first 10 games last year before Cutler went down would have ranked 5th in the league last year over a whole season. That total also would have ranked 5th in 2010.

Grade: C

Defense

The Bears have had a great defense for years. Last year, they weren’t quite up to their standards, ranking 14th with 21.3 points per game allowed and the 20.7 points per game allowed in their first 10 games would have only ranked 11th. However, they still have plenty of talent and ranked in the top-10 against both the pass and the run, ranking 7th against the pass with 6.8 YPA allowed and 10th against the pass with 4.0 YPC allowed. They could have a top-10 defense again in 2012, which would be a great compliment to a top-10 offense.

Defensive Line

One of the reasons their defense is so good is because of Julius Peppers. Peppers is one of the league’s most well rounded defensive ends, playing the run and rushing the passer equally well. With a 29.3 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 6th ranked 4-3 defensive end last year and, though he’s heading into his age 32 season, he should be able to be an elite defensive end once again. With 12 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 53 quarterback pressures on 562 pass rush snaps, he had a 12.5% pass rush rate.

Opposite him, the veteran Israel Idonije will continue to start in base packages. Idonije had a solid year in 2010, but struggled last year and, heading into his age 32 season, he’s not getting any better. He’s solid against the run, but doesn’t offer much of a pass rush, with 5 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures on 594 pass rush snaps, good for a pass rush rate of 7.6%. The Bears drafted Shea McClellin in the 1st round of the 2012 NFL Draft. He’ll play immediately in sub packages and push Idonije inside on passing downs. That will help their pass rush. Opposite Peppers, the athletic McClellin should be able to get a good amount of pressure on the quarterback.

Idonije will play on passing downs inside with Henry Melton, another strong pass rusher. Melton is only average against the run, but managed 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 437 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 8.9%, very good for his position. With Amobi Okoye and Anthony Adams gone, Melton could see an increase in snaps in their defensive tackle rotation, but that would mean playing the run more.

The veteran Matt Toeaina, a decent run stuffer, will also be in that rotation and play primarily on running downs, as will Stephen Paea, a 2011 2nd round pick who could be due for a breakout year. He’s also a strong run stuffer, but might be able to offer something as a pass rusher as well. He played alright in limited action last year.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Bears have their two mainstays, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. The long time duo is getting up there in age as they are entering their age 34 and 32 seasons respectively, but both continue to get it done and I expect that to continue in 2012. Both players never come off the field as they played 1116 and 1102 snaps respectively last year. No other Bears’ front 7 player played more than 944. They are well rounded players who stop the run and cover very well. Briggs ranked 14th among 4-3 outside linebackers with a 8.1 rating and played more regular season snaps than any other player at his position. You can’t quite say the same thing about Urlacher, who ranked 4th at his position in total snaps played in the regular season, but his 16.3 rating ranked 12th at his position.

The 3rd linebacker is Nick Roach, a solid 2 down run stuffer. That’s all they really need him to be because Urlacher and Briggs play every snap in 2-linebacker sets in sub packages because of their coverage abilities. Roach played just 534 snaps last year and their depth linebackers combined for just 4. They don’t need much from him.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

They’re not often talked about, but the Bears have one of the league’s top cornerback duos. #1 cornerback Charles Tillman allowed 67 completions on 115 attempts (58.3%) for 850 yards (7.4 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 4 penalties. Opposite him, Tim Jennings allowed 63 completions on 110 attempts (57.3%) for 700 yards (6.4 YPA), no touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 4 penalties. He was one of only two eligible cornerbacks (60% of their team’s snaps) to not allow a touchdown. He ranked 16th at his position on ProFootballFocus, while Tillman ranked 12th. They’re the backbone of a tough Bears pass defense.

The Bears also have no shortage of depth at cornerback, bringing in Kelvin Hayden and Jonathan Wilhite through free agency and drafting Isaiah Frey and Greg McCoy. Hayden, a natural fit for their scheme, will compete with Dre Moore, who did an alright job last year, for the #3 cornerback job. The other guys won’t be much of a factor unless injuries strike and they will have to cut a couple. Frey and McCoy have practice squad eligibility, so it’ll probably be them. Both were just late round picks.

At safety, Brandon Meriweather is gone, but he was benched midseason last year and pretty bad before being benched so he won’t be missed. The Bears drafted Brandon Hardin in the 3rd round to take his place and now have a trio of 3rd round picks from the 2010, 2011, and 2012 NFL drafts with Major Wright and Chris Conte as well. Wright and Conte are expected to be the starters, while Hardin will be the top reserve. Neither of those two starters have played all that well so far in their careers, so Hardin could provide competition for one or the other before the season is over. Meanwhile, Craig Steltz actually played the best of any of their safeties in ProFootballFocus’ eyes last year with a 4.9 rating, playing 419 snaps as primarily an injury replacement.

The Bears have some age defensively, but they still have plenty of talent. They have two of the best and most well rounded linebackers in the league, who fit their scheme perfectly and never come off the field. They have a talented cornerback duo and should exceed the 33 sacks they had last season. They could easily have a top-10 defense next season in terms of scoring, just like they were top-10 against the run and against the pass last year. If they have a top-10 offense as well, that will make them one of the most well rounded teams in the league and bring them back to being a contender in the NFC.

Coaching

Lovie Smith might not be the best coach in the NFL, but he’s one of the longest tenured, coaching since 2004 and he has a 71-57 record, 3 division titles, and a Super Bowl appearance. He has a great coaching staff and his teams always play defense well. As long as the team remains in playoff contention, he deserves to be the Head Coach for at least a few more years.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Bears are just a season removed from a NFC Championship appearance. They may have been lucky to get there, playing an easy schedule, exceeding their Pythagorean Expectation by more than a game, getting a 1st round bye despite 11 wins, and facing sub .500 Seattle in the 1st round. However, I think they played better last year than in 2010 before injuries derailed everything and they made positive changes to their offense this offseason, adding Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, while firing Mike Martz.

The Bears were part of the “5 down” last season, referring to the fact that 5 teams that previously made the playoffs miss the playoffs every season. Fortunately, the opposite is true and 39.6% of the “5 down” teams rebound to make the playoffs the following season, which is up from the 37.5% of all teams who make the playoffs every season. They have one of the most well balanced teams in the league and could rank in the top-10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Barring major injuries, they’ll be in contention in the NFC once more.

The Bears are not quite on the Packers’ level and the fact that they’ve lost to them in their last 4 matchups backs up that statement. However, they could steal one of those games this season. They should also at least split with the Lions and could sweep the Vikings for the 3rd straight season. They could go 4-2 in the division and 3-3 seems like a worst case scenario.

Outside the division, they host Indianapolis, St. Louis, Carolina, Houston, and Seattle. With the exception of the Houston game, those are all very winnable games. I would be pretty surprised if they lost more than 1 of those games. They also go to Dallas, Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Francisco, and Arizona. That’s not a very tough slate either, especially since I think the 49ers are overrated. They have a tough in division schedule, but benefit from getting to play the AFC North and NFC West, while facing Dallas and Carolina in their other conference games. 11-5 or 12-4 definitely seems plausible.

Projection: 12-4 2nd in NFC North

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Green Bay Packers 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Packers

Offense

Normally teams who win the Super Bowl have a bit of a hangover the following season. Apparently no one told the Packers who promptly ripped off 13 straight wins to start the 2011 season. Aaron Rodgers took the next step as a quarterback, winning his first MVP and setting the league’s single season record for QB rating with a 122.5 rating. Added to the 6 straight they won en route to the Super Bowl in 2010, the Packers were on a 19 game winning streak and looked primed to, at the very least, become the first reigning Super Bowl Champion to win a playoff game since the 2004 Patriots.

However, the Packers went into Kansas City week 15 and lost to the sub .500 Chiefs. The 5 point loss ended their bid for a perfect season and was their first regular season loss of more than 4 points since week 10 of 2009. A few weeks later, after a 1st round bye, the Packers were upset at home by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants and failed to win a single playoff game.

Still, the Packers have a lot going for them. They return almost their entire core from last season’s 15-1 team, including Aaron Rodgers, who is still in the prime of his career, heading into his age 29 season. They spent three picks in the first 2 rounds on defensive players who I think can have an immediate impact for a defense which ranked 19th in the league with 22.4 points per game allowed. And this time around, they won’t have the pressure of defending their Super Bowl title. In their last 23 games (including playoffs), they’re still a remarkable 21-2.

Quarterbacks

While the Packers’ record over the past 23 games is remarkable, Rodgers’ numbers over his last 27 might be even more remarkable. Rodgers has completed 606 of 886 (68.4%) for 7912 yards (8.9 YPA), 72 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 1136 yards and 12 touchdowns in 4 years. The only hole you can poke in him is how well his backup, Matt Flynn, played, but you can poke similar holes in Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Brady’s Patriots went 11-5 without him in 2008 and Brees didn’t become an elite quarterback until he came to New Orleans, got in their system, and started playing half of his games in a dome. Meanwhile, Eli Manning was not elite until last season.

Rodgers was the quarterback of the league’s top scoring offense (35.0), set a new QB rating record (122.5), and was the quarterback of the league’s best regular season team (and the team with the league’s highest winning percentage, including playoffs), despite the fact that his defense ranked just 19th in the league in scoring defense.

Even in their playoff loss to the Giants (their first loss in the regular season or postseason by more than 6 points since week 10 of 2009), Rodgers played well, but was let down by 8 drops from his wide receivers. Rodgers completed 26 of 46 for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. If his receivers drop 1 or 2 balls rather than 8, that line looks very good and that’s a completely different ball game (his defense also gave up 37 points).

He was equally good at leading explosive drives downfield as he was at taking care of the ball, ranking first in YPA (9.3), 2nd in touchdowns (45, one behind Drew Brees, who played 16 games to Rodgers’ 15), 1st in interceptions (6), and 2nd in completion percentage (68.3%). His career QB rating of 104.1 is a record for quarterbacks with as many career attempts as him, as is his 3.47 TD:INT ratio, and his career 8.2 YPA is tied for highest in the Super Bowl era. Meanwhile, his 65.4% completion percentage is 4th all-time.

Even advanced statistics love him. No quarterback had a higher accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) than his 80.6% and no quarterback had a higher deep accuracy percentage (20+ yards) than Rodgers’ 60.7%. His adjusted QB rating of 108.77 (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) was 10 points higher than anyone else in the league. He was fully deserving of the league’s MVP last year and he is currently the best quarterback in the league. The only issue is if he gets hurt. Backup Graham Harrell is a former undrafted free agent who has never attempted a pass in the NFL. The Packers may trade for Colt McCoy, which would give them a young, experienced, and above average backup.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Packers have never been much of a running team, but it’s worth noting they don’t have a lot of proven guys at the position. The Packers let Ryan Grant go and have given James Starks the lead back job. Starks is a talented back, but he’s had injury problems dating back to his days at the University of Buffalo. He missed his entire senior season there, which is why he fell to the 6th round of the 2010 NFL Draft. He also missed most of his rookie season with injuries and was on and off the injury report last year. He’s flashed talent in his career, but he’s still got only 162 career carries in 2 seasons.

Backup Alex Green only has 3 carries in his career. Green was a higher rated prospect than Starks and went in the 3rd round of the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s definitely got talent, as evidenced by the 8.2 yards per carry he averaged in his final season at the University of Hawaii, but he missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL and only maxed out at 146 carries in a season dating back to his college days.

The 3rd back is Brandon Saine. Saine has all the measurables and ran a 40 in the 4.4s at 6-0 220, but went undrafted in the 2011 NFL Draft because he had just 70 carries in his senior season at Ohio State and maxed out at just 146 carries. He carried the ball 18 times for 69 yards last year. Undrafted rookie running back Marc Tyler could also make the roster, but he has a history of injury problems and only maxed out at 171 carries in a season at USC. He also lost his starting job down the stretch last season and ran his 40 in the 4.7s at 5-11 219 so he lacks explosiveness. If things look bleak in Training Camp with the young guys, the Packers could call up Ryan Grant, who led the team in carries with 134 last year, or even Cedric Benson, both of whom are still free agents because of their age.

The good news for the Packers is that their passing game and offensive line are good enough for them to at least be a decent running team because their backs will often be facing spread out boxes and be supported by a strong offensive line. They’ll have plenty of holes to run in and all they need to do is be a solid compliment to their passing game. They ranked 26th in the league with 395 carries last year, 27th in total yards, and 26th in yards per carry. And they managed 15 wins and 35.0 points per game. And, if one of their young backs breaks out, that’s even better. Ryan Grant was a former undrafted free agent and he did pretty well for a few years as the Packers’ lead back.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

I’ve mentioned the offensive line already, the Packers have a solid bunch upfront that pass and run blocks equally well. Yes, they gave up 41 sacks last year (though Flynn took 5 of them), good for 11th most in the league. However, Rodgers is actually a quarterback who takes a few more sacks than he needs to, at least last year, an Achilles heel in his game. Rodgers was 6th worst among eligible quarterbacks last year, taking a sack on 22.6% of the plays in which he is pressured. Some of this has to do with how much Rodgers likes to run around in the pocket, as well with how much the Packers throw deep downfield.

Meanwhile, their offensive line graded out 10th in pass blocking efficiency on ProFootballFocus and Rodgers was only 17th among 24 eligible quarterbacks in terms of percentage of snaps he was pressured. The Packers offensive line only allowed him to be pressured on 27.4% of plays and Rodgers ranked 6th in accuracy percentage under pressure with 63.2%. The Packers have above average starters in 4 of 5 spots on their offense line.

The one player who struggles is left tackle Marshall Newhouse. Newhouse was actually ProFootballFocus’ worst rated offensive tackle last season with a -41.8 rating. Including playoffs, he allowed 9 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties and struggling mightily as a run blocker.

Newhouse, a 2010 5th round pick, was not supposed to be out there as he only stepped in because Chad Clifton got hurt and rookie Derek Sherrod wasn’t ready. Clifton has since been cut and may retire. 2011 1st round pick Sherrod is supposed to be the long term starter, but he might not play at all this year with a broken leg. At the very least, he’ll start the year on the PUP. If he can come back healthy and Newhouse continues to struggle, he could challenge him for the job. More likely, Sherrod will get his chance in 2013.

The Packers also mulled moving right tackle Bryan Bulaga from the right side to the left side, but decided against it because Bulaga plays so well on the right side. This is a smart idea because Bulaga, a 2010 1st round pick, ranked 5th among offensive tackles with a 14.5 rating last year. He was equally good as a run blocker and pass protector and allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties.

The interior of the Packers’ offensive line is their real strong point. Right guard Josh Sitton broke out in 2010 and has been a top-5 guard on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 2 years, including a #1 ranking in 2010. Last year, he ranked 5th with a 16.9 rating. He’s better as a pass protector than a run blocker, but above average in both areas. Last year, he surrendered 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures, with 7 penalties.

Until last year, left guard was a weak spot, but TJ Ward broke out last year as Sitton had the year before, ranking 19th at his position with a 4.3 rating. He struggled as a run blocker, but ranked 6th at his position as a pass protector. He allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 9 quarterback pressures. As long as he doesn’t regress, the Packers are fine at that position.

Between them, the Packers lost Scott Wells, which will hurt for continuity’s sake, but they should be able to replace the 4th ranked center’s play on the field. The Packers signed a cheaper alternative in Jeff Saturday, ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked center with a 14.2 rating. Saturday has been an elite center for seemingly forever. Though he’s now 37, Saturday is showing no signs of slowing down and plays a position that players can play effectively into their mid and late 30s. An equally good run blocker, Saturday allowed 2 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 9 quarterback pressures with the Colts last year, while committing only 3 penalties. The Packers’ strong interior line will really help an unproven bunch at running back and the Packers’ offensive line on the whole will once again do an adequate job giving Rodgers time to do his thing.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Also helping out Rodgers is a strong receiving corps. They let him down with 8 drops in their playoff loss to the Giants, but they’ve been very good for him otherwise. There’s a reason Matt Flynn was able to play so well in Rodgers’ absence last year. Donald Driver is now 37 and buried on the depth chart, but the next generation could end up being just as good. Driver has 735 catches for 10060 yards and 59 touchdowns in 13 seasons, but Greg Jennings has 389 catches for 6171 yards and 49 touchdowns in 6 seasons.

Jennings only missed a 4th straight 1000 yard year last year by 51 yards and would have almost definitely surpassed that had he not missed the final 3 games with injury, the first games with injury he’s missed since 2007 (coincidentally, the last time before last year that he didn’t have 1000 yards). In his absence, Jordy Nelson stepped up big time, catching 68 passes for 1263 yards and 15 touchdowns.

When throwing to Nelson last year, Rodgers averaged 13.6 YPA and threw 15 touchdowns to 1 interception. He also hit Nelson for 12.3 per catch on the fly, meaning before any yards after catch. Among players with 100 targets, only Vincent Jackson was hit deeper. His 22.1% touchdown rate is unsustainable even on this offense, as is an 18.6 YPC for a guy whose career average is 15.1 YPC, but Jennings’ 14.2 YPC last year was down from his career average of 15.9 YPC. Should both stay healthy, they could easily have 1000+ yards a piece.

Behind them on the depth chart, James Jones is penciled as the #3 receiver. He’s a reliable player who caught 38 passes for 635 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, but he’ll face competition from the more explosive Randall Cobb in Training Camp. Cobb, a 2011 2nd round pick, caught 25 passes for 375 yards and a score last year and is having a strong offseason. If Cobb outplays Jones in Training Camp, Jones, who is owed 2.5 million this year, could be traded. Driver, meanwhile, will be behind both of those guys on the depth chart, but he’s a locker room presence and totally fine with a limited role.

The X-factor is tight end Jermichael Finley. Finley has incredible talent and athleticism, but it’s always been one thing or another with him. In a 14 game stretch from 2009-2010, he caught 71 passes for 915 yards and 6 touchdowns, but he missed most of 2010 with injuries and last season he led all tight ends in drops with 12. Also, on a team that completed 68.1% of its passes last year, Finley caught just 60.4% of the passes targeted at him. For reference, Jordy Nelson caught 73.8% and Greg Jennings caught 69.8%. He’s also a poor blocker.

However, for as bad as all that sounds, Finley still finished last year with 55 catches for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns. The upside is still there and it’s possible injuries may have still been to blame for his play last year. But if they can get him going, it’ll be crazy. It’ll be just one more explosive weapon that Rodgers has to throw to and it’s not like he needs a whole lot. While they don’t have a lot of talent at running back, the Packers have so much talent where it matters that it seems possible they could lead the league in scoring again. At the very least, they’ll have a top-5 offense and average 30+ points per game, barring major injuries.

One thing that could be a bad sign for the Packers is that they had fewer than 20 turnovers last year. Turnovers are tough to predict on a yearly basis and very inconsistent. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. In fact, teams that have 20 or fewer turnovers average just 2 turnovers less per season the next season than do teams that averaged 35 or more turnovers in their next season.

However, if there’s any team I trust to repeat those numbers and break the trend, it’s Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Peyton Manning and the Colts are the one exception over the last 10 years, making the list 5 times. Rodgers is that good. Besides, 2.69 fewer wins would still mean 12 or 13 wins for the Packers. Not too shabby. Even if they don’t score 35 points per game again, they’ll still score plenty.

Grade: A

Defense

The offense is not going to be a problem for the Packers. The defense could be. They may have won 15 games last year, but they did rank 19th in scoring defense. That’s not a sustainable model going forward and it’s very tough to count on the offense to score 35 points per game again, even with all of their talent. Only the 2007 New England Patriots have ever surpassed that number. They’ll have to play better defensively this year.

Another thing that is not sustainable is their takeaways and turnover margin. As they are offensively, turnovers are very inconsistent on a yearly basis and not always related to talent. The difference between average takeaways by teams who had previously had 35 or more and by teams who had previously had 20 or less is minimal. Teams with 35 or more had 27.5 in their next season and teams with 20 or fewer had 25.8 in their next season.

I’ll repeat it, it’s very tough to predict turnover totals on a yearly basis. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers and 2 fewer wins in their next season. While I give them the benefit of the doubt offensively, I don’t defensively. On top of that, teams with differential of +15 have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Green Bay’s +24 differential definitely counts.

So did they do enough to improve their defense in the offseason? Rookies Jerel Worthy, Casey Hayward, and Nick Perry will all have impacts this season, but they’re just rookies. The good news is that the Packers actually ranked 2nd in scoring defense in 2010 with 15.0 points per game allowed and they still have a lot of the same players. They have talent. They just didn’t play like it last year. And defensive coordinator Dom Capers is one of the best in the business.

Defensive Line

Perhaps the biggest example of a player playing well in 2010 and not in 2011 is nose tackle BJ Raji. After ranking 10th at his position on ProFootballFocus in 2010 with a 15.8 rating, Raji graded out 2nd to last among defensive tackles in 2011 with a -20.2 rating. He was his position’s worst player against the run and no one was within 5 points of him. He didn’t rush the passer well either with 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 19 quarterback pressures on 579 pass rush snaps (4.0%). In 2010, he had 8 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 643 pass rush snaps (7.9%). The 2009 1st round pick is only heading into his age 26 season so there’s definitely bounce back potential for him.

One player gone from their Super Bowl team is Cullen Jenkins and the Packers really missed his pass rush ability. Their top 3 players at defensive end last year, Ryan Pickett, Jarius Wynn, and CJ Wilson, all were horrible as pass rushers. They all ranked in the bottom 6 at their position as pass rushers. The trio combined for 3 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on a combined 824 pass rush snaps, good for a combined rate of 2.8%.

Add in the combined 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures that Raji, Howard Green, and Mike Neal had on a combined 812 pass rush snaps and you get a defensive line that had a pass rushing rate of 3.4%. That’s awful. No wonder they only had 29 sacks, good for fewest among playoff teams and tied for 3rd worst in the league.

Those guys were solid against the run as a group, especially Ryan Pickett, but they were awful pass rushers. Pickett is a very strong player against the run. He just doesn’t get any pass rush. That was fine in 2010 when Raji was rushing the quarterback well and Cullen Jenkins was there, but not last year. The Packers will be hoping that Jerel Worthy can at least be Cullen Jenkins lite in a situational role and that Raji can bounce back. That will allow the one-dimensional Pickett to be more of an asset than a liability.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Packers have their best defensive player. Clay Matthews only had 6 sacks last year, but graded out above average against the run and in coverage and a deeper look at his pass rushing stats suggest he had a very good season in that aspect last year. He may have only had 6 sacks, but he had 22 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures on 502 pass rushes, good for a very impressive 14.1% rate that suggests he was just unlucky in 2011. In fact, in his amazing 2011 season, his pass rush rate was “only” 13.3%. He never regressed. People have just been looking at the wrong statistics. He ranked 5th among rush linebackers last year with a 30.0 rating.

What’s been most impressive about Matthews’ play is that he’s been doing this despite constant double and triple teams, especially last year. The Packers’ defensive line obviously isn’t going to draw much attention from Matthews on passing plays and the opposite rush linebacker has never done that either. Last year, that opposite rush linebacker was Erik Walden.

Walden wasn’t a terrible pass rusher with 3 sacks, 14 quarterback hits, and 22 quarterback pressures on 426 pass rush snaps, good for a solid 9.1% rate. However, he didn’t draw any attention away from the defense and played well primarily because he saw so little attention from the defense. He was also terrible against the run, last at his position by 8 points and his -20.5 overall rating ranked dead last among rush linebackers.

The Packers used a 1st round pick on Nick Perry to replace Walden. Perry is a much more talented pass rusher than Walden. He’ll draw more attention away from Matthews and could become a very deadly player opposite Matthews, who will draw a lot of attention regardless. The Packers have never had another good pass rusher opposite Matthews and are hoping the Matthews/Perry duo can become like the Brian Orakpo/Ryan Kerrigans and James Harrison/LaMarr Woodleys of the 3-4 defense world.

Between them, the Packers will start Desmond Bishop and AJ Hawk at middle linebacker. Bishop broke out in 2010 in place of an injured Nick Barnett and continued his strong play in 2011 with Barnett getting exiled to Buffalo. Bishop ranked 14th among middle linebackers with a 14.5 rating. He struggled some in coverage, but played very well against the run and even added value as an above average blitzer up the middle, with 5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures on 150 pass rush snaps (15.3%).

Hawk, meanwhile, has been a disappointment since the Packers selected him 5th overall in 2006. He was given a pretty big contract last offseason, but did not live up to it. He graded out below average with a -3.0 rating. He got too large of a signing bonus (8 million) last offseason to lose his starting job just yet, but he’ll be pushed by 2011 6th round pick DJ Smith, who is having a great offseason. Smith should see an increase in the 267 snaps he had last year, during which he played very well. The coaching staff is high on him and may have unearned another gem. He could start in 2013 and beyond.

Grade: B+

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Secondary

The Packers pass defense was 7th in the league in 2010, thanks to the deadly duo of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams at cornerback. However, that number fell to 27th in 2011. The weakened pass rush had something to do with it, but Tramon Williams regressed thanks to an injury he played through and Charles Woodson finally started to show his age.

Williams was amazing in 2010. He ranked 5th at his position with a 15.7 rating and his 43.8 QB rating allowed ranked 1st at his position among eligible players (75% of his team’s snaps). In fact, no one was within 17 points of him in that statistic. He allowed 56 catches on 123 attempts (45.5%) for 690 yards (5.6 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions (including playoffs), while deflecting 15 passes and committing just 4 penalties.

However, a right shoulder nerve injury he suffered in the 2011 opener really limited him and made him unable to press cover effectively. Williams says he couldn’t even lift a 30-35 pound dumbbell over his head with his right arm last season. He was a much more middle of the pack cornerback last year, allowing 68 completions on 116 attempts (58.6%) for 1159 yards (9.9 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 3 penalties. Williams has been working all offseason to strengthen up the surrounding muscles and now says he can lift up to 90-100 pounds over his head. Along with BJ Raji, Williams is a bounce back candidate and that would be a huge lift for the Packers’ defense.

Opposite him, Charles Woodson is heading into his age 36 season. Though he led the league in interceptions last year, he really started to show his age and was frequently burned. He allowed 53 completions on 84 attempts (61.1%) for 611 yards (7.3 YPA), 4 touchdowns and those league leading 7 interceptions. He also deflected 7 passes and committed 9 penalties.

In 2012, Woodson could play more safety. If 2nd round rookie Casey Hayward can prove himself a worthy starter in Training Camp, Woodson could be one of their starting safeties. If not, Woodson will still almost definitely play there in sub packages, which would allow the Packers to get as many playmakers into the defensive backfield as possible on passing downs. Sam Shields, a solid nickel cornerback, will also come in on passing downs with Williams, Woodson, and Hayward.

The reason Woodson could have to move to safety is because Nick Collins, who used to be their starting safety, was cut thanks to a nasty neck injury that may prevent him from ever playing again. Collins was a talented player who the Packers really missed last season. In his absence, Charlie Peprah was awful with a -10.0 rating, good for 70th at his position out of 84 eligible. He was equally bad in pass coverage and against the run. He’ll definitely see fewer snaps this year and could be pushed for a starting job by a 2011 undrafted free agent that the Packers like, MD Jennings, and by Hayward, through him moving Woodson full time to safety. The Packers do have the other safety position locked down as Morgan Burnett is a solid starter.

If the rookies can have impacts right away and Tramon Williams and BJ Raji can bounce back, the Packers could have a solid defense this year to compliment their awesome offense, something they’ll need to go deep into the playoffs. If not, they could be even worse than last year as the 38 turnovers they forced last year probably aren’t sustainable. Given that their offense probably won’t quite average the 2nd most points per game in NFL history again, that could lead to a noticeable decline for the Packers in the win total. I lean with the former just because of how good the Packers are at discovering talent and how well coached defensively they are by defensive coordinator Dom Capers.

Grade: B

Head Coach

He’s not mentioned with the game’s elite coaches, but he should be. Mike McCarthy has a 63-33 career record and a Super Bowl ring and has been the architect and what’s become the league’s premier passing offense. A lot of people like to give departed offensive coordinator Joe Philbin a lot of the credit, but he didn’t even call the plays. McCarthy is one of the best offensive minds in the game.

Grade: A-

Overall

The Packers probably won’t go 15-1 again and they probably won’t score 35.0 points per game again. Those two things are too hard to sustain. However, they have the chance to be a lot better on defense and if they can do that, it’ll go a long ways towards getting this team back to the Super Bowl. Remember, this team is still 21-2 in their last 23 total games, 17-1 in their last 18 regular season games and Aaron Rodgers’ numbers are off the charts since the middle of the 2010 season. They also haven’t lost a regular season game by more than 5 since the middle of the 2009 season.

Since the start of the 2009 season, this team has scored 1409 points and allowed 896, good for a differential of +513 points. Only New England has a higher differential (+518) in that time period. With an average of 470 points for and 299 points against in the past 3 years, they have a Pythagorean Expectation of an average of 11.9 wins per season over the past 3 years, which leads the league. Only New Orleans and New England (37) have more actual wins than the 36 that the Packers have in the last 3 seasons. I’m taking their consistency to have another strong regular season and go deep into the playoffs.

They have a rough schedule, especially in the division, as both the Bears and Lions are formidable opponents, but they could still go 5-1 in the division. Outside of the division, they host San Francisco, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Arizona, and Tennessee. San Francisco and New Orleans were the 2nd and 3rd seeds in the NFC last year, but I think San Francisco is overrated and New Orleans is not nearly as fearsome away from the Superdome and the other 3 games are going to be pretty easy at home. Over the 11 games mentioned, 10-1 or 9-2 seems likely.

Rounding things out, they go to Seattle, Indianapolis, Houston, St. Louis, and New York to play the Giants. Seattle is always a tough place to play, Houston is a good team, while the Giants always play them tough, and Indianapolis and St. Louis should be improved. However, a record of 13-3 is not too crazy for this team. With San Francisco likely regressing this year and New Orleans having all kinds of off the field issues, the Packers should be the NFC’s #1 seed again unless the Giants channel their 2008 selves (minus Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the foot) or another unexpected team has a huge year.

Projection: 13-3 1st in NFC North

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Jacksonville Jaguars 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Jaguars

Offense

Believe it or not, if the Jaguars had beaten the Colts week 15 in 2010, they would have won the division and made the playoffs. They didn’t and they lost their final 2 games and finished the season 8-8 outside of the playoffs. Last offseason, they decided to rebuild and gave up their 2nd round pick to move up 6 spots from 16 to 10 to select Blaine Gabbert, despite having solid game manager David Garrard on the roster.

The veteran Garrard was cut in the preseason for financial reasons as they didn’t want to pay a non-franchise quarterback 8 million per year. Instead, a cheaper veteran, Luke McCown, started the season, but he sucked and lasted just 2 games. Gabbert was thrust into the starting role far before he was ready and he was absolutely awful, completing just 50.8% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.

It didn’t help that he had no supporting cast. His leading receivers were tight end Marcedes Lewis (39/460/0), wide receiver Mike Thomas (44/415/1), and running back Maurice Jones Drew (43/374/3). After that, no one else on the team managed more than 367 yards or 29 catches. Gabbert was also sacked 40 times, behind an offensive line that surrendered 44 total, good for 7th most in the NFL. David Garrard always made the most of a poor supporting cast and rather than bulking up their supporting cast with a 1st and 2nd round pick, they used both of those on Blaine Gabbert and jettisoned Garrard.

The Jaguars made a focus of this offseason bulking up their offensive supporting cast. They traded up to the 5th overall pick to grab the draft class’ top wide receiver, Justin Blackmon, and also gave Laurent Robinson a massive deal, paying him 32.5 million over 5 years. They also return a starting offensive lineman, former 2nd round pick Eben Britton, from injury, and, of course, Maurice Jones Drew is still one of the best in the business.

Quarterback

However, none of that will matter if Gabbert is a lost cause. It sounds weird to call a quarterback a lost cause after one year, but I never understood Gabbert’s rise to the top-10 in the 2011 NFL Draft in the first place. This is a guy who averaged 6.7 YPA and threw 16 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in his final year at Missouri in a conference that doesn’t play any defense.

His “intangibles” were why he rose, in spite of his production, but he certainly didn’t look like a leader with strong intangibles last year as he struggled mightily with pocket presence for a team that won 5 games. Gabbert even has some doubters within the organization as several people support newly signed backup Chad Henne over him.

GM Gene Smith obviously supports him because he drafted him, but even he at the very least signed off on the addition of Henne. If the Jaguars struggle this year, Smith could be gone, as could Gabbert (remember, since 1st round picks make significantly less money now, they have less job security). In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked if Gabbert were benched for Henne midseason this year.

Henne, a 2008 2nd round pick, has completed 60.7% for his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions in 4 seasons in the NFL. He was 0-4 for the Dolphins last year before getting hurt. Matt Moore went 6-6 with them down the stretch. Matt Moore. Henne may be an upgrade over Gabbert, but all that does is reinforce the fact that Gabbert sucks.

No team in the league had fewer passing yards (2179) or a lower YPA (5.4) than the Jaguars last year, while only St. Louis threw for fewer touchdowns (12) and only Denver completed a lower percentage of their passes (51.2%). No team in the league had a lower passer rating (62.2). In fact, no team was even within 6 points of their passer rating. The only team within 250 yards of their passing yards total was Denver, who ran a glorified triple option, and aside from them, no other team had less than 2870 yards, 691 more than Jacksonville had.

In the last 6 seasons (2006-2011), only one team, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn and the 2009 Cleveland Browns, had fewer yards than the Jaguars did last year (2076). Even the Jimmy Clausen led Panthers in 2010 had more yards. Gabbert was that bad. In a passing league, that is not a recipe for winning games. Since 2006, 21 teams have averaged 6.0 YPA or worse. Of those 21 teams, 19 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 3.9 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. In order for the Jaguars to have averaged 6.1 YPA last year, on 469 attempts, they would have had to throw for 2861 yards, 682 more than they actually did. They may improve this year, but I don’t think they’ll improve that much.

Grade: D

Running Backs

The biggest reason the Jaguars exceeded that 3.9 wins average last year is that they had the league’s leading rusher. Maurice Jones Drew was amazing. Despite concerns over the health of his knee in the offseason, MJD led the league in carries by a whopping 42 and rushed for 1606 yards, 266 more than any other back in the league. He was also the team’s 3rd leading receiver and somehow managed to score 11 times. He did all of this despite getting no help from the passing game and consistently facing stacked boxes.

However, history shows that he might not be able to do that again. Since 1988, only 4 of 23 running backs who led the league in carry surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. 2 of those backs were Emmitt Smith and one was a 22 year old Edgerrin James in his 2nd year in the league. The other was a 27 year old Clinton Portis, so it’s not impossible to do it several years into your career without being Emmitt Smith, but the numbers are against him. Portis also went on to break down the very next year (124/494/1) and was out of the league before his 30th birthday. MJD is 27, by the way.

Since 1988, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 368.8 carries per season, rushed for 1621.0 yards, and scored 14.6 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 273.8 carries per season, rushed for 1091.7 yards, and scored 9.2 touchdowns. This is for two reasons. For one, it’s almost impossible to keep up that kind of production on a yearly basis and that doesn’t just apply to running backs. What does apply to only running backs is how much they tire out. All of those carries puts a lot of tread on their tires in a short period of time. We’re talking about guys who are lucky if they have 8 year careers. This is especially true for someone like Maurice Jones-Drew, who got 952 of his yards after contact, most in the league.

On top of that, he’s not helping matters by holding out. MJD skipped mandatory minicamp and could skip some of Training Camp in protest of his contract. Right now, the Jaguars’ stance is that they won’t even talk contract with MJD, who has two years left on his deal. This is starting to look an awful lot like the Chris Johnson scenario last year. Johnson worried more about money than his performance, held out until right before the season, missed all of Training Camp and the Preseason with a new coaching staff coming in, didn’t stay in shape on his own and became complacent once he was actually paid, rushing for 1047 yards and 4 touchdowns on 262 carries.

If Maurice Jones-Drew regresses, the Jaguars will need Rashad Jennings to take some of the slack off of him. Jennings, a 2009 6th round pick, missed all of last season with a knee injury after the team put him on IR once his PUP eligibility ran out after week 6. Jennings was medically cleared a week later and didn’t need surgery, which might sound like a good thing, but it’s kind of pathetic that his coaching staff put him on IR, rather than activating him even though he was only going to miss another week. They clearly didn’t think very highly on him. He only has 123 career carries.

Needless to say, the Jaguars are in big, big trouble offensively unless MJD can replicate what he did last year, which seems very unlikely. Between rushing and receiving yards, he had 47.7% of his teams yards, a number that makes you think it’s 1985 again. By the way, the 4149 yards the Jaguars had last season were the fewest in the NFL by 392 yards.

Grade: A-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Jaguars made their receiving corps a focus of their offseason, but how much did they really upgrade things? I mean obviously, by default, Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon are upgrades over Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard, Jason Hill, Chastin West, and Cecil Shorts (sadly their leaders, in order, of snaps played at wide receiver last year). However, Blackmon is just a rookie and rookie receivers normally take a year to adjust to the speed of the NFL and learn the playbook. Julio Jones and AJ Green were obviously exceptions last season, but both played in Pro Style offenses, unlike Blackmon, and both played in the SEC, which is the closest thing you’ll get to NFL defenses at the collegiate level.

Blackmon will probably fall into the large group of rookie receivers who struggle. Discounting Jones and Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007. That just proves how special Julio Jones’ and AJ Green’s rookie years were, but I don’t see that happening for Blackmon. It’s too improbable.

Laurent Robinson, on the other hand, was a classic case of the Jaguars buying high. Robinson was cut by the Rams and Chargers last offseason and picked up by the Cowboys. With the Cowboys, he caught 54 passes for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns. Great numbers, but his career highs before that were 37 catches, 437 yards, and 2 touchdowns. In a 4 year career, he had 89 catches for 1000 yards and 4 touchdowns before last year. Receivers changing teams have a dubious history to begin with. Robinson’s one year wonder status makes him even more likely to become a free agency bust.

Meanwhile, Mike Thomas will line up in the slot. Thomas caught 44 passes for 408 yards last year and averaged 4.7 yards per target, worst in the league among eligible wide receivers (50% of their teams snaps), though that may have just been Blaine Gabbert. For what it’s worth, Thomas’ best position would appear to be the slot. He did catch 66 passes for 820 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2010 with a capable quarterback, which he currently lacks.

Tight end Marcedes Lewis led the team in receiving with 39 catches for 460 yards, but that’s not saying much and he didn’t even score. The Jaguars signed Lewis to a 35 million dollar deal over 5 years last offseason after the former 1st round pick caught 58 passes for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010. However, in 4 years prior, he had never exceeded 41 catches, 518 yards, or 2 touchdowns and was always seen as a disappointment. The Jaguars seem to like this buying high thing.

Grade: C+

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Offensive Line

Gabbert was sacked 40 times last year and the Jaguars allowed 44 sacks on the season, 7th most in the NFL. However, you can blame a lot of that on Gabbert’s terrible pocket presence. The Jaguars’ offensive line only surrendered 25 quarterback hits and 111 quarterback pressures on the year. Gabbert just took too many sacks he shouldn’t have.

He was actually only the 12th most pressured quarterback in the league last year among 24 eligible quarterbacks (50% of their team’s drop backs), pressured on 32.2% of the Jaguars snaps. Only Matt Moore took a sack on a higher percentage of pressured snaps than Gabbert, taking one on 26.1% of pressured snaps. Gabbert was 20th in completion percentage under pressure and 23rd in accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns).

In accuracy percentage in general, he was dead last (62.2%, for comparison’s sake, Aaron Rodgers’ was 80.6%). If we go down to quarterbacks who took 25% or more of their team’s drop backs, only Tim Tebow was less accurate in general, and no quarterback was less accurate on deep throws (27.8%). There’s a reason he had ProFootballFocus’ worst rating of any player at any position, -49.9. No quarterback was even within 22 points of him.

Oh, wait, this section was supposed to be about the offensive line, wasn’t it? Alright, well the Jaguars have a decent offensive line, they just have a dud quarterback that makes them look worse than they are. They’ll also be getting Eben Britton back from injury. Britton missed most of last season with injuries, but when healthy, he’s a solid right tackle.

That’s a good thing because he’ll replace an offensive lineman who actually does suck. Guy Whimper (what kind of name is that for an offensive lineman?) allowed a league leading 14 sacks playing primarily on the right side and it wasn’t just Gabbert’s fault. He also allowed 7 quarterback hits and 27 quarterback pressures and rated with a -13.5 on ProFootballFocus. He was alright as a run blocker and only committed 3 penalties, but ranked 67th among 76 offensive linemen as a pass blocker. Should he be healthy, Britton will be a major upgrade.

Another player who actually sucked last year on the offensive line for the Jaguars was left guard Will Rackley. Rackley was rated worst at his position with a -35.7 rating. He allowed 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, committed 8 penalties, and sucked as a run blocker. The Jaguars didn’t replace him, but he was just a 3rd round rookie so he could bounce back.

The rest of the offensive line is really solid though. The 8th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, Eugene Monroe, allowed 9 sacks, but that was mostly Gabbert’s fault as he also only allowed 4 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures. He was only penalized 5 times and run blocked well so he finished 7th among offensive tackles with a 12.1 rating. He’s really come into his own.

Center Brad Meester has been in his own for a while. Heading into his age 35 season, he’s still getting it done, ranking 11th at his position with a 6.9 rating, performing above average as both a run blocker and a pass protector. His age is a bit of a concern, as is the fact that the Jaguars don’t appear to have a replacement should his abilities fall off a cliff, but interior offensive line normally age pretty well. John Estes, a 2010 undrafted free agent, is their primary backup so this could be a position they address this offseason as Meester will be a free agent. They could also move Rackley to center and look for a new guard or move Rackley to center and Britton to guard and look for a new right tackle.

Rounding out the offensive line is Uche Nwanari. Nwanari is best known for bashing Tim Tebow before the 2010 NFL Draft when it was rumored that the Jaguars could be interested in him. He’s still a solid player though. This is not a bad offensive line. It just looks that way because of who is playing under center and, unless he can make some sort of major leap forward, this figures to be a disastrous offense once again in 2012, especially if MJD slips up even a little, which seems very likely.

Grade: B

Defense

Along with Maurice Jones Drew, the Jaguars’ defense was part of the reason why they exceeded the 3.9 wins per season average of teams who averaged 6.0 or fewer YPA. Their scoring defense ranked 11th with 20.6 points per game. Their passing defense ranked 13th with 6.9 YPA. And their rushing defense ranked 5th with 3.8 YPC. The Jaguars did that in spite of some injuries, but they hardly have an elite defense and if they struggle mightily to move the ball through the air offensively again, their solid defense will be wasted on a 5 win or fewer team (just like 19 of the last 21 teams who averaged 6.0 YPA or worse).

Defensive Line

One area the Jaguars made a focus of their offseason was their pass rush. Over the past 3 years, the Jaguars had managed a combined 71 sacks, maxing out at 31 sacks last year, tied for 27th in the NFL. The Jaguars used a 2nd round pick on Andre Branch and would have used their 1st round pick on Melvin Ingram had they been unable to move up for Justin Blackmon. Branch will compete with inexperienced 2010 5th round pick Austen Lane for the starting job, a competition he may win. At the very least, Branch is a much better pass rusher than Lane and will see significant snaps on passing downs.

Whoever starts there will play opposite Jeremy Mincey, who broke out last season. Mincey, an unknown heading into the season, ranked 12th among 4-3 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus last season with a 21.3 rating. He played the run well and rushed the passer well. On 551 pass rush snaps, he managed 8 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 38 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 10.3%. He was rewarded with a 4 year, 27.2 million dollar deal, though this wasn’t really a buying high move for the Jaguars because he was only guaranteed 9 million.

At defensive tackle, the Jaguars will start 2010 1st round pick Tyson Alualu. Alualu was regarded as a reach at 10th overall in 2010 and he hasn’t done anything to shake that label since. He was absolutely awful last year. With a -17.7 rating, he ranked 87th at his position out of 89 and he was equally terrible as a pass rusher and a run stuffer. On 511 pass rush snaps, he had 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 4.5%. He was better as a pass rusher in 2010, but he’s always been bad against the run. That’s why so many people didn’t think he was worth a top-10 pick. He’s one dimensional at best. At worst, he’s terrible. One more year like last year and the Jaguars may have to think about replacing him.

For this year, however, they don’t have much to replace him with. Another 2010 pick, 3rd round pick D’Anthony Smith, has been a disappointment, but for different reasons. Smith hasn’t even played a snap in the NFL, missing all of 2010 with a torn Achilles and all of 2011 with a torn ligament in his two. He might not even make the roster this year.

Terrance Knighton is supposed to start opposite Tyson Alualu. The big 317 pounder isn’t much of a pass rusher, but he’s an above average run stuffer who, at the very least, can be a situational player. This is, of course, assuming he’s healthy. Knighton injured his eye in a bar fight this offseason and hasn’t been able to do much football related. He’s on pace to be able to play week 1, but it’s still a concern to note. He’s also dealt with weight and durability issues in the past. CJ Mosley is another player who played significant snaps at defensive tackle last year. He too is a solid run stuffer, but offers no pass rush. After not managing much pass rush from the interior of their defensive line last year, I don’t expect them to get much from it this year again.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The linebackers are the Jaguars’ best defensive group. They have two of the best linebackers in the league in Daryl Smith and Paul Posluszny. With a 27.6 rating, Smith ranked only below Daryl Smith among 4-3 outside linebackers last year, while Posluszny ranked 6th among middle linebackers with a 21.0 rating. Both are well rounded players who are above average in all 3 facets of the game, stopping the run, dropping into coverage, and even rushing the passer as a blitzer.

The 3rd linebacker will either be Clint Session or Russell Allen. Session is overpaid thanks to a ridiculous 29 million dollar deal over 5 years he got last offseason and because of this, he’s expected to win the starting job. He’s a decent player, but Russell Allen actually outplayed him last year when Session was out of the lineup, which was most of the year. Session suffered 3 separate concussions last year, a major concern going forward. One more could end his career.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

The secondary is where the Jaguars had major injury issues. Their top three cornerbacks, Derek Cox, Rashean Mathis, and William Middleton, all finished last season on IR and none of them played more than 542 snaps. Because of all of their injuries, Drew Coleman, Ashton Youbouty, and Kevin Rutland all had to play more than 268 snaps and only Coleman played well. Coleman is now gone.

To add to their depth, the Jaguars signed Aaron Ross. Ross is a 2007 1st round pick, but a bit of a disappointment. He’s always struggled when he’s been counted on to start even though he’s always had the Giants’ strong pass rush in front of him. Ross will compete with Rashean Mathis for the #2 cornerback job. As disappointing as Ross is, he deserves to win the job. Mathis hasn’t been good for at least 2 or 3 years and now he’s heading into his age 32 season and coming off a torn ACL.

William Middleton will line up on the slot again now that he’s healthy. He’s one of the league’s top slot cornerbacks and ranked tied for 9th among all cornerbacks last year on ProFootballFocus. He allowed 19 completions on 30 attempts (63.3%) for 164 yards (5.5), 1 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. He was arguably the top pure slot cornerback in the league last year. He doesn’t have a history of injury problems before last year and he didn’t miss that many games (4) last year. He’s also only heading into his age 26 season.

Derek Cox, meanwhile, is the X-factor. He’ll start opposite either Ross or Mathis and be the #1 cornerback. Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs.

At safety, the Jaguars had additional injuries. Free safety Dwight Lowery also finished the year on IR, missing his team’s final 4 games. When healthy, he was an average safety who is better in coverage than against the run. He was resigned this offseason on a 4 year, 13.6 million dollar deal, which seems a little excessive, but whatever. Opposite him is the Jaguars’ only starting defensive back who made it through the season, Dawan Landry. He was overpaid last offseason with a 5 year, 27.5 million dollar deal because he sucks in coverage, but he’s strong against the run and a decent starter.

Obviously better health in the secondary would help as the Jaguars were using a secondary filled with guys like Drew Coleman, Kevin Rutland, Ashton Youbouty, and Akwasi Owusu-Ansah down the stretch last year, but the guys they’re starting when they’re at full strength are hardly an elite bunch. Derek Cox playing like he did in limited action last year for the entirety of this season would really help, but that’s a major if. They have some talented guys, but this is not nearly a good enough defense to make up for their awful offense.

Grade: B

Head Coach

The Jaguars hired Mike Mularkey as Head Coach this offseason. Mularkey has two years of NFL Head Coaching experience, going 14-18 with the Bills from 2004-2005, actually pretty impressive for the Bills. The last time the Bills had a winning record, he was the Coach, going 9-7 in 2004. He wasn’t fired in Buffalo, but resigned after a disagreement with management. He spent the last 4 years as the Falcons offensive coordinator after spending the previous 2 in Miami. He was with the Falcons as they developed a young quarterback in Matt Ryan. There were certainly more head scratching hirings this offseason.

Grade: B-

Overall

Unless the Jaguars get at least mediocre play from the quarterback position, they will be a doormat. Blaine Gabbert looks as close to a lost cause as a player one year removed from being the 10th overall pick can be. Teams that average less than 6.0 YPA have won, on average, 3.9 wins per season and scored 14.8 points per game since 2006. None have won more than 7 games and 19 of the 21 have won 5 or fewer. If they throw as many times as they did last year (not that many), Gabbert will have to throw for 682 more yards than the Jaguars did as a team last year just to get to 6.1 YPA.

Gabbert also makes their offensive line look significantly worse than they actually are and almost every quarterback measure shows he’s one of, if not the worst quarterback in the NFL, including ProFootballFocus, who grades him out at -49.9, the worst rating of any player last season. On top of that, they probably won’t get quite what they got last year from Maurice Jones Drew and their new receivers’ impact appears to be overrated right now. Defensively, they are not a powerhouse, even with better health this year, and will struggle to help a team, whose offense figures to score around 14 points per game, win games.

They figure to be one of the worst teams in the league. They were last year and though they won 5 games last year, not horrendous, they might not be as fortunate this year. I think they’ll win 6 games max and I would not be shocked if they won 2-3 games. They’re now the worst team in the division so while they went 3-3 in the division last year, I doubt they’ll do that again. Indianapolis is not a door mat anymore and they barely beat the Titans. If they go 1-5 or so in the division and 2-8 outside again, that’s 3-13.

Outside the division, they host Cincinnati, New England, Detroit, NY Jets, and Chicago, all superior teams. I wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t win any of those games, even though they are at home. Cincinnati is their best chance to win one. They also go to Minnesota, Oakland, Green Bay, Buffalo, and Miami. Minnesota and Oakland are on their level, but those games are on the road and the other 3 games will be tough for them as those are superior teams and they’ll be on the road. They’ll win a couple of those games in surprise fashion, but I expect a very bad season for them. I have them at 2-14. Someone has to be that bad.

Projection: 2-14 4th in AFC South

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Indianapolis Colts 2012 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Colts

Offense

What a difference Peyton Manning makes. After winning 10+ games for 9 straight seasons (the longest active streak in the NFL at the time) and 12+ games in 7 of their last 8 seasons, the Colts won a mere 2 games last year and at one point sat at 0-13. Andrew Luck will undoubtedly help, but he’s just a rookie quarterback and quarterback was hardly their only problem last year.

This team has not drafted well for years and it shows. They haven’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2006. I went through and made a list of the top 5 and top 10 players at each position in the league (to be published at a later date). The only team in the league without a single one: the Indianapolis Colts. This offseason they lost several mainstays, including Dallas Clark, Gary Brackett, Pierre Garcon, and Jeff Saturday (who makes the list, by the way, now with the Green Bay Packers.

Their best players (Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis) are all over 30. For what it’s worth, I think they drafted well in 2012, but this is a complete rebuild and it will take several strong drafts for them to be respectable again. Andrew Luck living up to his expectations would definitely help (and for what it’s worth, I think he’ll be a fantastic player), but this team has a long way to go.

Quarterback

According to many, Andrew Luck was the top quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning or even John Elway. In my opinion, I think he was the top quarterback prospect since Eli Manning, but he’ll still be a very good quarterback prospect. I think he’ll have a very similar career to Eli Manning. He won’t quite have Peyton’s success, but he’ll still be a very good quarterback and he’ll do it playing in the shadow of Peyton Manning like Eli did.

He’ll take a few years to reach his potential and he’ll have to wait for the team to surround him with more talent before he can even think of winning any Super Bowls. He could break Cam Newton’s rookie passing yards record set just last year (their defense is very good so he’ll have to throw a lot). He won’t be as good of a runner as Newton, but he has some mobility, and he should be a little bit more efficient than Newton, who did throw 17 interceptions.

Grade: B

Running Backs

At running back, Joseph Addai is gone. Addai is actually the last Pro Bowler the Colts drafted (along with Antoine Bethea in 2006). However, Addai is already heading into his age 29 season and he had really struggled since his 2007 Pro Bowl season. He had only exceeded 544 yards once and 3.8 YPC once since. He’s also missed 17 games over those 4 seasons. He won’t really be missed.

In his absence, the Colts have given another 1st rounder, Donald Brown, a 2009 1st round pick, the lead back job. Brown averaged 4.8 YPC last year, but if you take away one 80 yard run, he averaged just 4.2 YPC, which is also his career average. A career disappointment, Brown has carried the ball just 341 times in his first 3 seasons in the NFL. The regime that drafted him is gone and the new one doesn’t seem to have much faith in him. They have no shortage of other options behind him so, while he will start the season as the starter, he might not end the season as the starter.

One of the other options the Colts have is 5th round rookie Vick Ballard. Ballard is the only one of their three running backs drafted by the current regime and he fits their new power blocking scheme the best. Given that the other two backs aren’t very good, he could be a real sleeper this season. The other option is Delone Carter, a 4th round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. He averaged just 3.7 YPC on 101 carries last season and the regime that drafted him is gone.

Last year, the Colts had 3 backs get significant, yet inconsistent carries in the backfield. Joseph Addai, Delone Carter, and Donald Brown all had more than 100 carries. That could be the case once again this season with Brown, Carter, and the rookie Vick Ballard. Maybe one of them will break out and be able to carry the load well, but it looks like the Colts will just have a mediocre trio.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

None of their running backs will be running behind a good offensive line either. Their poor offensive line will also hurt Andrew Luck. The Colts brought in 3 new starters on the offensive line as they attempt to transition from a zone blocking to a power blocking scheme, so continuity will not be there. And two of those starters, Winston Justice and Mike McGlynn, were backups last season. Justice, who is expected to start at right tackle, struggled mightily as the starting right tackle in Philadelphia in 2010 and appropriately played just 84 snaps last year.

McGlynn, meanwhile, started some down the stretch for the Bengals last year in the absence of the injured Bobbie Williams. He finished with a rating of -9.0 on ProFootballFocus on 423 snaps. The Colts could start 2011 2nd round pick Ben Ijalana, who missed most of last season with injury, at right tackle and start Joe Reitz, an inexperienced player who was mediocre in limited action last year, at left guard.

However, it looks like Ijalana will be the starter at left guard. He’s got upside, but he’s unproven. He played 37 snaps last year. Jeff Linkenbach is another option at right tackle, but he played terribly last season, primarily at right tackle. With a -28.3 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 65th ranked offensive tackle last year, out of 73. He allowed 9 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties. Only 2 offensive tackles rated worse than him as a run blocker.

Samson Satele is the 3rd new starter. He started in Oakland last year and played pretty well. He was ProFootballFocus’ 18th rated center last year. He’s a better run blocker than he is a pass protector and he’ll fit the new regime’s power blocking scheme. He allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 11 quarterback pressures. His only issue was that he was penalized 8 times. He was also arrested this offseason, but the Colts don’t seem to care as they signed him 4 days afterwards.

The only projected starter on the offensive line who started for the Colts last season is left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Castonzo, the 22nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, made 12 starts at left tackle and allowed 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures. He was alright last year and he has some upside. Still, the fact that the Colts only return one starter from their offensive line from last year and that only two of their starting offensive linemen started anywhere last year is very troubling.

Grade: C+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Colts lost a lot of veterans this offseason, but one they returned, rather surprisingly, is Reggie Wayne, who clearly wanted to stay in Indianapolis and help guide Andrew Luck. Wayne hasn’t missed a game since 2001 and has caught 862 passes for 11708 yards and 73 touchdowns in 11 seasons, all with the Colts, since being taken in the 1st round in 2001. He even caught 75 passes for 960 yards and 4 touchdowns last year despite terrible quarterback play. Last year was the first time he didn’t exceed 1000 yards since 2003.

Not only did he surprisingly return to the rebuilding Colts, he may have taken a pay cut to return as the Colts got him for the very reasonable rate of 17.5 million over the next 3 seasons. A team trying to woo Peyton Manning (who was still unsigned at the time) may have paid him more than that. The one concern with Wayne is that he’s heading into his age 34 season and even elite wide receivers don’t stay elite much past 34. It’s likely he’s had his last 1000 yard season, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he had one in 2012 based on the pure volume of targets he’ll get. He doesn’t have a lot of competition for targets.

Opposite him, the Colts will start Austin Collie with Pierre Garcon gone. Collie is a mediocre talent that Peyton Manning made look better than he was and he belongs in the slot, if anywhere. Last year, he managed just 54 catches for 514 yards and 1 touchdown. Those numbers should go up with a better quarterback this year, provided he keeps his starting job for the whole season (which he might do by default), but it should be noted than the 5.6 yards per target he averaged last year was one of the lowest averages in the league.

Behind those two, the Colts have two speedsters, Donnie Avery and TY Hilton. Avery caught 100 passes for 1263 yards and 8 touchdowns from 2008-2009 with St. Louis, but he has caught 3 passes in the two years since thanks to injuries. He said he ran a 4.26 40 this offseason, but that sounds like bullshit. More likely, he’s just a former one trick pony (speed) who has lost a lot of speed and explosiveness thanks to injuries.

Hilton, meanwhile, was their 3rd round pick. He’ll be one to watch because their new offensive coordinator is Bruce Arians, who is coming over from the Steelers. Arians has had success in recent years with similar speedsters in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, who were both also drafted in the 3rd round or later. I’d be willing to be that Arians is at least a part of the reason why Hilton was selected. Still, as a rookie, he probably won’t have much of an impact, but he could beat out Avery for the slot receiver job mid season if Avery struggles or gets hurt again.

One thing Andrew Luck has to be happy about is that the Colts brought in Coby Fleener in the 2nd round. Fleener was Luck’s favorite target at Stanford and given their lack of talent at wide receiver, Luck should target the tight end early and often, especially around the end zone. He could have an Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski esque rookie year as a receiver.

He’s not much of a blocker, but the Colts used a 3rd round pick on Dwayne Allen, more of an on the line tight end, which will free Fleener up to be the “move” tight end. They figure to use a lot of two-tight end sets given their lack of talent at receiver. Luck is very comfortable throwing out of two-tight end sets, as anyone who watched Stanford over the last 3 years can tell you, so I liked that they used their 1st two picks after Luck on this draft class’ top-two tight ends and two players who complement each other well. Other than that though, Luck doesn’t have a lot to be happy about in his receiver corps or his offensive supporting cast in general.

Grade: B-

Defense

The Colts’ offense was not their only trouble side of the ball in 2011. In painful symmetry, the Colts ranked both 28th in points scored and 28th in fewest points allowed, scoring 15.2 points per game and allowing 26.9 points per game. That’s what happens when you don’t draft well for years. Even if you were good to begin with, eventually the talent you do have ages and you’re left rebuilding from the ground floor.

The Colts are switching to a new defensive scheme under new Head Coach Chuck Pagano, who will be bringing over his 3-4 philosophies from Baltimore. Baltimore almost used a hybrid scheme last year as they used a lot of sub packages, but the Colts are now a 3-4 base. They are undergoing a complete defensive makeover and adopting a completely new defensive philosophy.

For years, they’ve used a cover 2 scheme based on speed and athleticism and now they’re switching to a 3-4 scheme based on power, strength, and physicality. It’s going to take at least a year or two for them to get the personnel to run a respectable 3-4 defense. Not only that, their two best defense players, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are over 30, declining, and learning a new position for the first time in their careers.

Defensive Line

In order to help with the transition, Chuck Pagano brought over one of his guys from Baltimore, defensive end Cory Redding. Redding knows the system, but he’s not just a veteran with experience in the system. He had a very good year last year with the Ravens. Redding is primarily a run stuffer, but he graded out above average as both a run stuffer and a pass rusher for the Ravens last year in a rotational role, with a 14.5 rating on ProFootballFocus on 511 snaps (including playoffs). He could see a bigger role in Indianapolis this year, because they have less depth.

He’ll start next to Drake Nevis, a 2011 3rd round pick who played pretty well in limited snaps last year as a rookie. Fili Moala, who was just horrible last year as a starting defensive tackle in a 4-3 with a -17.5 rating (86th out of 89 on ProFootballFocus), will provide some rotational depth, as will 5th round rookie Josh Chapman, and Brandon McKinney, another player Pagano brought over with him from Baltimore.

Chapman and McKinney could also see some snaps at nose tackle, but Antonio Johnson will start there. At 305 pounds, Johnson is hardly a true nose tackle and struggled last year as a 4-3 defensive tackle with a -9.2 rating. Especially troubling is the fact that he struggled the most against the run and, as a nose tackle, he’ll primarily have to stop the run.

Luckily, Pagano’s system uses a lot of sub packages so nose tackle isn’t that important of a position, but it’s definitely possible that Josh Chapman takes over as the starter by the end of the season. He was regarded as a 2nd or 3rd round prospect, before falling to the 5th for medical reasons. At the same time, the Colts could have to make nose tackle a priority on their offseason needs list next offseason.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

As I mentioned, the Colts’ two best defensive players are Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but the duo, once the envy of the NFL, is heading into their age 32 and 31 seasons respectively. Freeney is in the final year of his contract and the Colts tried to trade him this offseason, to no avail, while Mathis was given a head scratching 36 million over 4 years this offseason, in spite of his age.

Not only are they playing in a completely new scheme, they’re also declining players. They didn’t play badly or anything last year, but they weren’t their normal All-Pro selves. Freeney managed 8 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures on 435 pass rush snaps (11.3%), while Mathis managed 10 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures on 432 pass rush snaps (11.1%). They ranked 11th and 13th respectively among 4-3 defensive ends in terms of rushing the passer, which isn’t bad, but they’re not as good as they once were and, at their age, they probably won’t get any better.

They also don’t play the run well, especially not Freeney, who ranked 59th among 62 players at his position against the run. They won’t need to be that great against the run now that they’re linebackers, but they’ve also never been linebackers before. On paper, the switch would appear to be good for them, but games aren’t played on paper. It’s possible that one or both will become uncomfortable playing in a new spot on the field and being asked to do different things. It’s certainly happened before.

Behind them for depth, the Colts have Jerry Hughes, a 2010 1st round pick who has barely played in 2 seasons. They don’t have much confidence in him and he appears to be on the verge of being a bust. Even Bill Polian, the man who drafted him, admitted a year later that he shouldn’t have drafted him. That’s a very bad sign for his career. He won’t see much action this year, barring injury, and could be cut next offseason.

Between those rush linebackers, the Colts will start Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner. Angerer is one of the few (only?) talented young players the Colts have defensively. The 2010 2nd round pick had 148 tackles last year, good for 4th in the NFL. That number is a little skewed because he had so little talent around him so he was often cleaning up everyone else’s mess, but he’s still a solid player. He’s not a Pro Bowler, but a solid starter.

Conner, meanwhile, was absolutely awful last year, ranking 38th out of 42 4-3 outside linebackers on ProFootballFocus last year with a -12.5 rating. He was, however, alright against the run and that’s going to be more important at his new position so maybe he’ll emerge as a solid starter. At the same time, I wouldn’t be surprised if he were benched for one of two inexperienced middle linebackers, AJ Edds and Mario Harvey. The Colts could make the middle linebacker position a priority of their offseason next offseason.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The Colts were an awful team against the pass last year, ranking 26th with 7.8 YPA allowed. Starter Jacob Lacey is gone. He wasn’t very good, allowing 50 completions on 68 attempts (73.5%) for 509 yards (7.5 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 5 penalties, though he was good against the run.

However, his replacement in the starting lineup is Kevin Thomas, a 2010 3rd round pick who might be even worse. He really struggled last year in limited action, playing primarily on the slot, allowing 26 completions on 38 attempts (68.4%) for 404 yards (10.6 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 1 penalty. Out of eligible cornerbacks (25% of more of their team’s snaps), Thomas ranked 2nd worst in QB rating allowed, allowing a rating of 129.7.

Thomas will start opposite Jerraud Powers, who is a little better. He allowed 41 completions on 59 attempts (69.5%) for 508 yards (8.6 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and not getting penalized once. He’s an okay player, but the 2009 3rd round pick is hardly a #1 cornerback capable of covering opponent’s #1 receivers. On top of that, they have no proven depth at the position as Cassius Vaughn and Terrence Johnson will compete for the slot cornerback job.

At safety, the Colts have the last Pro Bowler they’ve drafted who is still on the roster, Antoine Bethea, a 2006 6th round pick. Bethea hasn’t made the Pro Bowl since 2009, but he’s still a solid player who had a 1.3 rating last year on ProFootballFocus. He’ll start opposite Tom Zbikowski, who Pagano brought over from Baltimore. Zbikowski has been alright as an injury fill-in over the past couple years in Baltimore, but this is his 1st chance to be a full time starter. He could struggle. If he does, Joe Lefeged, who was mediocre in limited action at safety last year, could take over. The two could also platoon with Lefeged coming in on sub packages as he’s better in coverage.

As is the case on the rest of the defense, the Colts do not have a lot of talent in their secondary. As they had other needs, the Colts did not spend a draft pick on their defense until the 5th round (Josh Chapman) and they only brought in one 2011 starter through free agency (Cory Redding). Meanwhile, they’re switching schemes and defensive philosophies completely and their two best players are over 30, declining, and changing positions.

They were the 28th ranked scoring defense last year and something similar could happen again this year. It will take a couple years for them to assemble the pieces of a respectable defense. Their problems last year were not just that Peyton Manning was hurt. They might have missed the playoffs even with him. They haven’t drafted well in years and it’s really showing now, especially defensively.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Tough to grade a Head Coach who has never been a Head Coach before and not just in the NFL, but on any level. Pagano is coming over from Baltimore where he was the defensive coordinator last year and before that he was their secondary coach for 3 years (he’s also been a secondary coach in Oakland and Cleveland, as well as numerous places in the collegiate level). Getting someone from Baltimore’s defense seems like a good idea, but so many good coordinators fizzle as Head Coaches so it’s tough to get excited about him just yet, especially since he only has 3 years of defensive coordinator experience (Baltimore, UNLV, and University of North Carolina).

Grade: C+

Overall

The Colts may have the least non-quarterback talent in the NFL and this is directly rated to the fact that they haven’t drafted well in 5+ years. Andrew Luck looks like he’s going to be the real deal and I like what the new regime did with their draft this year, getting Luck offensive weapons to help his developmental.

However, they don’t have a single player in the top-10 at his position and their best players (Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis) are all over 30 and two are playing a new position this season. The one draft steal they’ve gotten in recent years (Pierre Garcon) is gone. They might not have even made the playoffs with Peyton Manning last year. They barely made it the year before, having to win their last 4 after a 6-6 start. Had they lost to Jacksonville late in 2010, they would have missed the playoffs.

That being said, quarterback is the most important position in the NFL and it’s amazing how much having a good quarterback can mask other problems. Luck should be able to be a top-15 quarterback from the word go. Cam Newton didn’t step into a team with a lot of talent either last season and he won 6 games. Luck could easily do that this year, so while it’s definitely necessary to have low expectations for this team for at least this year and probably the next couple years, they won’t be a doormat. They’ll win some games.

They don’t have that tough of a division. They even went 2-4 in it last year. I think Jacksonville is definitely worse than them and that they can beat Tennessee once like they did last year. They could win 2 or 3 divisional games. Outside of the division, they host Minnesota, Green Bay, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo. There’s 3 very winnable games in there at home. In the 11 games I’ve listed so far, they could go 5-6. The problem is that the rest of their schedule sends them to Chicago, New York to play the Jets, New England, Detroit, and Kansas City. Even if they aren’t very good, their schedule is set up for them to win 6 or 7 games. It’s easier than the surprisingly tough schedule Cam Newton faced as a rookie.

Update: Adding an extra game to their win total. Andrew Luck looked great this preseason and Vontae Davis will help their defense. They might have 5 or 6 win talent because of how bad their supporting cast it, but they have a cupcake schedule.

Projection: 8-8 3rd in AFC South

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