Tennessee Titans 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 14, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Titans

Offense

Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans were always one of the most conservative offenses in the league. However, that’s no longer the case. Head Coach Mike Munchak, along with offensive coordinator Chris Palmer, has instituted a more wide open, pass heavy offense. Only Detroit and Tampa Bay ran less than the Titans did last year as the Titans ran 376 times, 208 times fewer than the 584 times they passed. Only Detroit and Tampa Bay had a bigger disparity.

The Titans used another 1^st round pick on a wide receiver in the 2012 NFL Draft in Kendall Wright, despite having two talented, young wide receivers, Nate Washington and Kenny Britt, on the team. Britt has limitless potential, but the 2009 1^st round pick will have to stay healthy, while Washington caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns in Britt’s absence last year. He’s only heading into his age 29 season. The Titans also have another talented young receiver, tight end Jared Cook. The 2009 2^nd round pick also has limitless potential and ended last season on fire.

Quarterback

The major question for the Titans is quarterback. It’s not just about whether or not their quarterbacks can lead this team, but also which quarterback it will be. Matt Hasselbeck led this team to 9-7 last season, but he’s heading into his age 37 season and Jake Locker, the 8^th overall pick in 2011, played very well in place of Hasselbeck when he was hurt last year, completing 51.5% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

It’s really tough to predict what’s going to happen for this team this year because we don’t know who the quarterback is. Jake Locker could take over this team, but the raw former 8^th overall pick could struggle through the growing pains of being a young quarterback and the rest of the team could struggle with him. He could also get benched for the veteran Hasselbeck after winning the starting job, which could disrupt team chemsitry. Likewise, Hasselbeck could start the season and get replaced with Locker after struggling and the same thing could happen. The absolute worse situation would be if the team has to change quarterbacks twice or more. Teams don’t often make the playoffs after benching their quarterback.

At the same time, the Titans could start Hasselbeck again and the veteran could game manage this team to another solid year. Or Locker could start, show his potential, and guide a talented supporting cast to 10 or 11 wins, a playoff spot and maybe an AFC South title. This team could be anything from 5-11 or 6-10 to 10-6 or 11-5.

The Titans sound like they share my concerns about Locker and the growing pains of him being a young quarterback. Though they will have an open competition in Training Camp, Hasselbeck sounds like the favorite right now given reports from reporters who know the team, as well as comments made by members of the organization themselves, including that the winner of the quarterback battle would be based on more than just stats and that they’ll take the schedule into account. Hasselbeck’s veteran leadership is something more than just stats and their early schedule (New England, San Diego, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Pittsburgh) would be very unfriendly for a young, inexperienced quarterback.

The Titans feel they have a team that can compete for a playoff spot this year and rightfully so. Last year, they were 9-7 and the only team in the NFL to have a record better than .500 and miss the playoffs. They have a veteran quarterback who should still be capable of game managing this team and, in win now mode, it makes sense to go with him rather than a boom or bust quarterback like Locker, at least until Hasselbeck slips up. He could slip up this year because of his age, but more likely, we won’t see Locker much until 2013, which could be exactly what he needs as he was seen as very raw coming out of Washington last year. Hasselbeck completed 61.6% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA and 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, very respectable numbers.

Grade: B-

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Hasselbeck has the ability to post even better numbers this year because of the improved offensive supporting cast he will likely have. This is a very talented team. That’s why they would be better off with a capable veteran rather than a boom or bust 2^nd year quarterback. Kenny Britt should be back. Kendall Wright is added to the mix. And Jared Cook could have a break out year.

Let’s start with Britt. Britt has limitless talent, catching 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 14 full games, extrapolated to 64 catches for 1310 yards and 14 touchdowns over a full 16 game slate and he’s done that despite inconsistent and less than stellar quarterback play (Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Kerry Collins, Matt Hasselbeck). However, he missed 13 and ½ games last year with a torn ACL and needed further surgery on that knee this offseason.

The surgery was minor and he’ll be back for week 1 most likely, but additional surgery is never a good sign. Defensive end Derrick Morgan had the same surgery last offseason after tearing his ACL in 2010. The 2010 16^th overall pick managed just 3 sacks in 14 games last year. It’s a concern. The good news is that Britt is not yet 24 until September and he truly does have limitless upside and he should be out there week 1.

The Titans brought in some insurance in the 1^st round this year, using the 20^th overall pick on Kendall Wright. If Britt is healthy, Wright will still contribute heavily in the growing amount of 3-wide receiver sets the Titans use. Rookie wide receivers normally take a year or two to adjust to the speed of the NFL and to learn a much more complex playbook, but Wright should still be a dynamic weapon out of the slot.

Jared Cook, meanwhile, was a 2009 2^nd round pick. With a 4.50 40 at 6-5 246 in 2009, he ran the fastest 40 yard dash time for a tight end since Vernon Davis. Last year was by far his best year with 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns, but if the way he closed out the season is any indication, 21 catches for 335 yards and a score in their final 3 games, he could be due for a breakout year in 2012.

Nate Washington, meanwhile, returns off a season in which he caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns. It’s reasonable to expect those numbers to go down with more competition for balls this year. His 118 targets last year were tied for 15^th in the league, one spot ahead of Mike Wallace and tied with Percy Harvin. However, he still was able to step up and be the #1 receiver last year. The issue was their depth behind him. Guys like Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins had to step up and both were very inconsistent. With Britt returning and Wright coming in, to go with Washington, that shouldn’t be an issue this year.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

One other issue last year was Chris Johnson. Just 2 seasons removed from setting the league’s yards from scrimmage record in 2009, Johnson really struggled last year. Part of it was his interior blocking (which I’ll get into later), but part of it was just that he was totally out of shape after an extended hold out that ended just a few days before the season. He didn’t participate in Training Camp with a new coaching staff coming in and he didn’t stay in shape enough on his own.

The good news is that he got better as the season went on. After rushing for a pathetic 366 yards and 1 touchdown on 121 carries (3.0 YPC) in the team’s first 8 games, he rushed for 681 yards and 3 touchdowns on 141 carries (4.8 YPC) the rest of the way. Over 16 games, that’s 1362 yards and 6 scores on 282 carries. That’s not too shabby and that 4.8 YPC is right on par with his career average. Johnson has been working tirelessly this offseason to get into tip top shape. Rather than working out on his own in Orlando and skipping voluntary team workouts, which he normally does, Johnson was at most of, if not all of the team’s voluntary activities this offseason. Still only 27 in September, he should be his vintage self this season. That will help open things up for the passing game and also give whoever the quarterback is another dangerous weapon as a receiver out of the backfield.

Grade: A-

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Offensive Line

I’ve already mentioned their poor interior blocking last year. That should be slightly upgraded this season, but the two main culprits return. Titans’ running backs averaged 2.5 YPC and 2.4 YPC running behind the left guard and center respectively, while center Eugene Amano ranked 2^nd worst among centers on ProFootballFocus as a run blocker. Amano and left guard LeRoy Harris are back, while right guard Jake Scott, who actually played pretty well, is not, but they did bring in Steve Hutchinson from Minnesota to take his spot.

Hutchinson is heading into his age 35 season, but interior offensive linemen do age pretty well. He was ProFootballFocus’ 8^th rated guard last season with a 12.8 rating (though actually one spot below where Jake Scott was rated). He was solid as a run blocker and allowed just 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 9 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties.

While they struggled to run block, the Titans’ offensive line was actually very good in pass protection, which is more important because this is a passing league and the Titans have become a pass first team. They were ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd rated pass blocking offensive line and allowed just 24 sacks, tied for 2^nd fewest with New Orleans, remarkable given how much they pass.

Even Amano and Harris were good pass protectors. Harris allowed just 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures, while being penalized 5 times. He rated 12^th at his position as a pass protector on ProFootballFocus. Meanwhile, Amano graded out above average as a pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties.

It wasn’t enough for him to rank any better than 31^st overall out of 34 centers, though, so he’s still a weak link. The Titans have given opportunities to guys like Fernando Velasco, Kevin Matthews, and William Vlachos, but I doubt any of those guys would play well if they had to. Vlachos is a mere undrafted rookie, while the other two have little to no NFL experience. One good thing the Titans did is get rid of Ahmard Hall, their terrible full back. Out of 26 fullbacks on ProFootballFocus, he was 23rd. Replacement Quinn Johnson is inexperienced, but should be an upgrade and help Johnson pick up yards on the ground.

Outside on the offensive line, things are better. Michael Roos and David Stewart are among the top bookend tackles in the league and a big part of the reason why they were so good in pass protection. They ranked 13^th and 4^th respectively among offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus. Roos is very well rounded, performing well as a run blocker, as well as a pass protector. He allowed just 1 sack, 9 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties.

Stewart, meanwhile, is much better in pass protection than as a run blocker. He was below average as a run blocker, but 3^rd at his position in pass protection. He allowed 4 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures, while committing just 2 penalties. This duo has been together for years and should have another strong season in 2012.

The Titans, overall, have a very strong offensive supporting cast. They have dynamic receivers, an elite running back who is back in shape, and while their offensive line struggles to open holes on the ground, they are one of the best in the league in pass protection, which is more important as they are now a pass heavy team in a pass first team. The biggest issue is quarterback, but there’s definitely upside there. They have the potential to exceed the 21^st ranked scoring offense they had in 2011, with 20.3 points per game, but inconsistencies at quarterback would stifle their offense.

Grade: B

Defense

As a conservative offense was the staple of a Jeff Fisher team, so was a strong defensive line and pass rush. That too was non-existent last year in their first year without Fisher as they managed just 28 sacks, 2^nd worst in the league behind Tampa Bay’s 23. In an effort to change that, they brought in Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland and a breakout season from 2010 16^th overall pick Derrick Morgan, who appears to finally be healthy, would help as well.

Still, in spite of a poor pass rush, the Titans actually ranked 4^th against the pass with 6.4 YPA allowed and were the league’s #8 scoring defense with 19.8 points per game allowed. However, #1 cornerback Cortland Finnegan left as a free agent and while they have solid depth at the position, they’ll need an improved pass rush if they hope to be as good defensively as they were last year. Another staple of a Jeff Fisher team, strong against the run, was not the case last year either as they ranked 24^th in the league with YPC allowed. They’re obviously hoping that changes next season.

Defensive Line

While they had a good defense last year, the defensive line was a real problem for the Titans. They’re the primary reason why they ranked 31^st in the league in sacks and 24^th in the league against the run. Jeff Fisher is rolling in his grave (if, you know, he were actually dead). To fix their pass rush, they brought in Kamerion Wimbley from Oakland and a breakout season from 2010 16^th overall pick Derrick Morgan, who appears to finally be healthy, would help as well.

Wimbley has had an interesting career. A 2006 1^st round pick, he had an amazing rookie year in Cleveland as a 3-4 rush linebacker with 11 sacks, but managed just 15.5 sacks over the next 3 seasons and was shipped to Oakland for a 3^rd round pick heading into his contract year. In Oakland, he played 4-3 outside linebacker, but was used in such a way that he was still allowed to primarily rush the passer. He was essentially a 4-3 rush linebacker, blitzing a lot, and lining up at defensive end on passing downs. He earned himself a giant contract last offseason, but for financial reasons, the Raiders had to cut him just 1 year into it and now he’s in Tennessee.

He had an amazing year last year. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker with a 24.4 rating and managed 6 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 478 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 13.0%. However, he’s never been an every down defensive lineman in his career and at 245 pounds, I have questions about how he’ll fit in that role, how he’ll stop the run and even how he’ll rush the passer in base packages where he’ll line up with less distance between him and the offensive lineman, as opposed to blitzing or rushing the passer as a 3-4 outside linebacker or being a 4-3 defensive end in sub packages.

Opposite him, the Titans will start Derrick Morgan. Morgan barely played as a rookie in 2010 and then struggled mightily last season with 3 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures on 378 pass rush snaps (7.4%), though he played the run pretty well. The main reason for his struggles is that he was still not 100% off of a torn ACL suffered in 2010. Heading into 2012, he’s shed the knee brace and could be due for a breakout year. If he struggles, however (still possible), the Titans could replace him after the season.

Furthermore, they have little to no depth behind the starters should either one struggle. Dave Ball returns after struggling mightily last season. On 404 pass rush snaps, he managed 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits and 17 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 5.9%. He’ll see fewer snaps this season, which is for the best. Overall, the Titans should get better pass rush production out of their defensive ends than they did in 2011, when the three guys rotating in their defensive end rotation, Morgan, Ball, and Jason Jones, all rated 56^th or worse among 4-3 defensive ends as pass rushers on ProFootballFocus, out of just 62 4-3 ends.

Things are better at defensive tackle. They also used a 3 man rotation there last year, with Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, and Sen’Derrick Marks. Casey was a strong run stuffer and a solid pass rusher who rated 12^th at his position on ProFootballFocus, while Klug led the team in sacks with 6, to go with 5 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 358 pass rush snaps (7.0%). The exciting thing for the Titans is that both were mere rookies last year, 3^rd and 5^th round picks respectively. Marks was the one weak link in that rotation. Out of 89 players, Marks ranked 81^st at his position. He could be pushed by 2012 3^rd round pick Mike Martin.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

As Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug were 3^rd and 5^th round picks in the 2011 NFL Draft, the Titans have two 2011 NFL draft picks starting at linebacker. If Jake Locker can ever break out as a legitimate starting quarterback, their 2011 NFL Draft class will be seen in hindsight as an incredibly strong one. 2^nd round pick Akeem Ayers and 4^th round pick Colin McCarthy will start at linebacker. Both graded out above average last year.

The 3^rd linebacker spot is a weakness. Will Witherspoon was pretty good against the run last year, but struggled in coverage. Heading into his age 32 season, he’s not getting any better. 2^nd round rookie Zach Brown could sub in for him on passing downs and eventually succeed Witherspoon as a starter. Owed 3.5 million in a contract year, there’s an outside chance that Witherspoon will be cut if Brown outplays him in Training Camp, but more likely, he’ll remain with the team and Brown will take over in 2013.

Grade: B

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Secondary

The Titans lost Cortland Finnegan in free agency, but they have enough depth at cornerback that his loss won’t be a huge deal. New #1 cornerback Jason McCourty, ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked cornerback in 2011, allowed 71 completions on 117 attempts (60.7%) for 802 yards (6.9 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and only committing 2 penalties.

Opposite him, Alterraun Verner will be moving into the starting lineup. Verner played very well on the slot last year, but moving outside could potentially cause him to struggle. He was ProFootballFocus’ 14^th ranked cornerback last year (giving them 3 of ProFootballFocus’ top 14 cornerbacks last year). He allowed 37 completions on 66 attempts (56.1%) for 334 yards (5.1 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 7 passes and not committing a single penalty.

He’ll still play on the slot at times as he’ll move there in 3-cornerback sets. They have 3 cornerbacks competing to be the 3^rd cornerback. Whoever wins will line up outside in 3-cornerback sets. Jason Mouton, a 2009 3^rd round pick, is coming off of a torn Achilles, while Coty Sensabaugh is a rookie 4^th round pick.

The favorite, however, is currently Tommie Campbell. Campbell was a 7^th round pick last year, but could prove to be a steal. An incredibly athletic player, Campbell spent two years at Pittsburgh before getting kicked off the team for academic issues. He then spent 2 years as a janitor at the Pittsburgh Airport before enrolling at California University of Pennsylvania, a Division-II school. He caught the eye of the Titans at the Division-II All-Star game, where he ran an incredible 4.31 40 at 6-3 205. If he proves to be a valuable part of this team in 2012, their 2011 NFL Draft class will look even better than it already does.

While the Titans lost Cortland Finnegan, they did keep one of their free agent defensive backs, Michael Griffin. Griffin was franchise tagged and resigned for 35 million over 5 years with 15 million guaranteed. Michael Griffin was the 19th overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, but he doesn’t always play like it. For example, in 2008 and 2011, he graded out above average on ProFootballFocus, ranking 13th among all safeties last year. However, in 2009 he was absolutely awful, getting torched in coverage, allowing 34 completions on 49 attempts (69.4%) for 741 yards (15.1 YPA!!!), 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, 5 deflections and one penalty, as he ranked 87th at the position out of 88 eligible. He was also pretty middle of the pack in 2010.

Next to him, Jordan Babineaux is pretty mediocre. He had a -7.4 rating on ProFootballFocus last year. He was resigned this offseason for 2 years, 5 million, but that was most likely out of desperation as they didn’t have an internal replacement, and there were little to no safeties available either in free agency or through the draft. 6th round pick Markelle Martin, who fell for injury reasons, could eventually succeed him.

The Titans have done a very good job of drafting defensively over the past few years. A whopping 7 of their 11 defensive starters were drafted in the 2009-2011 drafts (Derrick Morgan, Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, Colin McCarthy, Akeem Ayers, Alterraun Verner, and Jason McCourty). That doesn’t include Sen’Derrick Marks and Tommie Campbell, situational players who were drafted in one of those 3 drafts and Zach Brown, Mike Martin, and Coty Sensabaugh, rookies from the 2012 NFL Draft who could have impacts this year.

On top of that, they also have Kamerion Wimbley (free agency this offseason) and Michael Griffin (2007 1^st round pick), who are among their best defensive players. Finnegan may be gone, but they have enough defensive talent to make up for that and they should have an improved pass rush this season. They may not quite be as good as the 8^th ranked scoring defense they were last year, but they’ll still be a strong defense.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

Mike Munchak only has one year of Head Coaching experience and was a peculiar hiring last offseason as he was never a coordinator in the NFL, but he did a solid job in his first year, going 9-7 with a team that was 6-10 the previous year. He was also a finalist for the Penn State Head Coaching job, still a prestigious position, but was not hired because he would not leave the Titans before the season in the middle of a playoff race.

Grade: B

Overall

The Titans have a good supporting cast. They have a strong and young defense filled with guys that the team has drafted themselves. They add Kendall Wright and return Kenny Britt and turn their receiving corps from thin to explosive and they could get a breakout year from tight end Jared Cook. They should also get another strong year from Chris Johnson, even though he’s running behind an offensive line that doesn’t run block well. Speaking of their offensive line, while it doesn’t run block well, they pass block incredibly well, very important for a team that is now pass heavy and in a pass first league. If they can get good quarterback play, they can definitely make the playoffs.

The quarterback play is what’s a big question mark. Not only do we not know who is going to start, we don’t know how well they’ll play or if they’ll have to switch quarterbacks mid season. Jake Locker could break out as a franchise quarterback, but he could also show why everyone thought he was so raw coming out of Washington. Matt Hasselbeck could game manage this team to a solid year, or he could show his age, 37. He’s the safer option, but Locker is pretty boom or bust and a very unknown commodity. They could also switch quarterbacks mid season multiple times, which could stifle a talented supporting cast and disrupt team chemistry.

As I said earlier, I could see this team winning anywhere from 5 or 6 games to 10 or 11. For their projection, I’m essentially going to be conservative and pick in the middle. This also makes sense because it sounds like the Titans will be conservative and start Hasselbeck over Locker so long as he continues to produce and win games. I expect them to be in the playoff race until the end of the season, but to fall just short.

One thing working against them is their schedule. I already mentioned their tough early season schedule. Whoever starts at quarterback could struggle in their first 6-8 games or so and get benched and teams who bench their quarterback midseason rarely make the playoffs (Denver last year is an obvious exception).

They have a pretty easy division schedule with 4 games against Indianapolis and Jacksonville, but Indianapolis is improved. Meanwhile, Houston blew them out in the one game where Schaub played and almost beat them in the one game he didn’t. They could have a 3-3 divisional record. Outside of the division, they host New England, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago, and the Jets. New England and Pittsburgh will be very tough wins, even at home, while I expect Chicago to have a really good year and Detroit is no slouch either. The Jets are the weakest of the bunch, but they won’t roll over either. Expect 2-3 or so.

They also go to San Diego, Minnesota, Miami, Buffalo, and Green Bay. They luckily get San Diego early in the year, which is a break and Minnesota and Miami aren’t tough teams, but Buffalo will be a good team this year and that Green Bay game looks pretty unwinnable. Given that 7 or 8 games, right in the middle of my high/low projections, seems about right.

Update: For more on why I’m moving the Titans up, click here. For the short version, I feel the same way about the Titans and Jake Locker that I did about Matt Stafford and the Lions at this point last season.

Projection: 11-5 2^nd in AFC South

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Houston Texans 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 14, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Offense

The Texans broke out in 2011, won the AFC South with 10 wins, and made the playoffs for the 1^st time in their franchise’s still short history. What’s even more impressive is the fact that they did this despite their quarterback and their #1 (and only good) wide receiver only playing in the same game together 4 times, thanks to injuries. When Matt Schaub went down, this team was 7-3 and a contender for the AFC’s #1 seed. A 4^th ranked scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and a 2^nd ranked rushing offense (2448 yards) carried this team to the AFC semis and if they can get their once strong passing game going again this year, they could be incredibly dangerous.

At the same time, the Texans lost a lot this offseason and might not be able to compensate. Mario Williams is the obvious name because he signed for almost 100 million dollars in Houston, but he missed 11 games last year and the Texans still allowed the 4^th fewest points and had the 6^th most sacks (44). Youngsters Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin stepped up big time in his absence and first round pick Whitney Mercilus, who I think was the best pass rusher of the 2012 NFL Draft class, will also be in the mix this season.

The more important losses will be Jason Allen, an important, versatile defensive back, Joel Dreessen, a talented 2^nd string tight end who played a lot as the Texans used many two-tight end sets, DeMeco Ryans, a starting middle linebacker, as well as Mike Briesel and Eric Winston, their starting right guard and starting right tackle respectively on what was an incredibly strong offensive line. They’ll try to replace those guys in various ways that I’ll get into, but they’ll miss those 5. Still, in arguably the weakest division in the NFL, the Texans have a clear path to their 2^nd straight division title and playoff appearance.

Quarterback

One other concern that Texans fans should have is their quarterback, Matt Schaub. That may sound weird as a few years ago Schaub was one of the league’s leaders in yards on a non-playoff team that couldn’t stop anyone, but even the Texans have concerns about Schaub. That’s why they haven’t given him a long term extension as he heads into a contract year. If he plays well, they’ll happily franchise tag him and work out a long term extension with him next offseason, but there are concerns.

The first is that he’s 31 and has NEVER PLAYED IN THE PLAYOFFS. That hasn’t always been his fault, but he’s had some less than stellar performance in big games and close games and you have to question his leadership, even if only a little, and wonder if he’s not Tony Romo with a better PR team. He’s also been very injury prone, which is part of why he’s never played in a playoff game (had he been healthy last year, he would have). That’s their other concern. Schaub has missed at least 5 games in 3 of the last 5 seasons. TJ Yates is a decent backup, but if the Texans want to have any chance of winning the Super Bowl, Schaub has to stay healthy. My money is still on Schaub staying mostly healthy and playing in at least one playoff game this season, but the concerns are there.

It’s interesting how Schaub’s role with the team has changed from 2009-2010 to now as the team’s style of play has changed. In 2009 and 2010, Schaub threw for 4770 yards and 4370 yards respectively for a 9 win and a 6 win team respectively. Last year, however, he was on pace for 3966 yards for a team that was 7-3 when he went down. The Texans’ 546 carries were tied for most with Denver, a team whose starting quarterback ranked 39^th in the league in carries himself.

Schaub has always been a talented quarterback who has completed 64.3% of his career passes for 7.9 YPA, 98 touchdowns, and 58 interceptions in his career. He’s fully capable of staying healthy for 16 games and leading a very strong supporting cast to 12 wins. He just needs to actually do it. As strange as it may sound for a 31 year old quarterback, Schaub may be more potential than substance. He has the potential to be an elite quarterback, but you can’t put him there if he’s never played in a playoff game.

Grade: B

Running Backs

I’ve already mentioned how much the Texans love to run and how good at it they are. Last year, they ran 546 times and passed just 467 times. Only Denver had a bigger disparity and only Denver and San Francisco joined them in running more often than they passed (Miami had an exactly equally split). This wasn’t just when Matt Schaub went down. In 10 games with Schaub, they passed 292 times and ran 357 times, as opposed to 230 passes and 254 runs in the 8 games without Schaub (including playoffs).

Having a strong defense will allow them to this again. Arian Foster, barring injury, should be among the league leaders in carries for the 3^rd straight year (1^st in 2010 and 6^th in 2011, despite missing 3 games with injury), while Ben Tate will be one of the most often used backups in the league. He’ll obviously be a valuable handcuff in fantasy football if Foster gets hurt. Both are incredibly talented and good fits for their blocking scheme.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Speaking of their blocking scheme, one thing that could hold the Texans back from running as well as they did last year is the fact that they lost two starting offensive linemen. They were backed up against the cap and had to let right guard Mike Brisiel and right tackle Eric Winston go. Both were talented players, but the Texans believe in their blocking scheme and believe they can coach up unheralded players and make them into starters, as they have done in the past. On their strong line in 2011, only one player was drafted before the 3^rd round.

Being plugged into their offensive line is right guard Antoine Caldwell and right tackle Rashad Butler. Neither has much experience nor do they have much success, but the Texans believe they can coach them up. If either slips up, 3^rd round rookie Brandon Brooks could be plugged in at either spot, while Derek Newton could be plugged in at right tackle, where the 2011 7^th round pick is more natural than Brooks.

Luckily, the Texans did not lose 3 offensive linemen this offseason. At one point, it looked like center Chris Myers was also a goner. However, the Texans were able to bring him back, which is great news because, with a 32.6 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ highest rated center in 2011 by a pretty wide margin. He was solid as a pass protector, allowing 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures, but where he’s especially great is as a run blocker. No offensive lineman at any position graded out within 7 points of Myers as a run blocker on ProFootballFocus last year. He’s heading into his age 31 season, but I see no reason why he’ll slip up.

The only offensive lineman of the bunch who was selected before the 3^rd round is left tackle Duane Brown, who was a 1^st round pick in 2008, which makes sense since this is the most important position on the offensive line. Brown has lived up to his draft range. He was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th rated offensive tackle last season. He was the only starting offensive tackle in the league not to surrender a single sack, though he did allow 4 quarterback hits and 23 quarterback pressures and graded out slightly below average as a run blocker. He only committed 4 penalties as well.

The one returning weak link on the offensive line is left guard Wade Smith. I bet the Texans are wishing that it was him that left this offseason rather than Brisiel or Winston. Because they had two offensive lineman to replace, they couldn’t replace Smith even if they wanted to. He had a -20.5 rating last year, good for 70^th at his position out of 76. He was alright as a pass protector, allowing 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures, but he was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated run blocker at his position. Very strangely, he was 4^th rated overall at his position in 2010. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like that. Maybe he’ll bounce back.

Grade: B+

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

As Matt Schaub is known for being injury prone, so is his top wide receiver. Since 2007, he’s missed at least 3 games in 3 of 5 seasons and 19 games overall. He played a career low 7 games last year and now all of a sudden he’s in his age 31 season. He’s incredibly talented when healthy with 706 catches for 9656 yards and 52 touchdowns in his career and he’s had 100+ catches in his last 3 full 16 game seasons, but the Texans made it a priority of their offseason to add more talent in their receiver corps around him, as well as potential future successors as the team’s #1 receiver as even elite wide receivers like Johnson aren’t elite much past age 33 or 34.

The Texans used 3^rd and 4^th round picks on receivers, selecting DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin. They also have 2011 undrafted free agent Lester Jean, who has drawn rave reviews this offseason and could be due for a breakout year. I haven’t heard more good things about any player who has never had an impact in the NFL whatsoever than I have about Jean, for what that’s worth.

Of course, all 3 of those guys are currently behind veteran Kevin Walter on the depth chart, though that might not be the case week 1 or mid season as one or more of the aforementioned young guys could leap him on the depth chart at some point. Given what I’ve heard about Martin and Posey, I think it’s more likely that Jean will be the one to leap him. Martin and Posey are very raw and have been underwhelming in offseason practices. They’ll have impacts in 2013 and beyond if they ever do.

Walter, meanwhile, is the definition of mediocre. He’s tall and is a big target in the red zone, but he’s never been able to establish himself as a productive receiver and he caught just 39 passes for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns last year despite Andre Johnson’s frequent absences. Heading into his age 31 season, he’s not getting any better. When Johnson was out last year, the Texans really struggled to find another capable wide receiver. They have some upside guys, but none are sure things to be any better than what they had last year. Andre Johnson will need to remain healthy and remain his usual 80+/1200+/7+ touchdown self.

The one thing the Texans do have going for them is tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels too has had some injury issues in the past, missing 13 games from 2009-2010, but he played in 15 games last year and had 54 catches for 677 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Texans love to use a lot of two-tight end sets, no surprise given how much they like to run.

Joel Dreessen was their #2 tight end last year and he’s gone. An excellent and underrated overall tight end, he’ll be missed. Including playoffs, he played 817 snaps and was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th rated tight end last year so they’ll need someone to replace him. The Texans believe 2010 4^th round Garrett Graham is capable of doing so and will give him the job, but he’s incredibly inexperienced so I have my doubts. Overall, while they’ve lost players, things should be better offensively in 2012 than in 2011, when they still somehow managed to rank 10^th in the league with 23.8 points per game. This is, of course, barring major injuries to Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.

Grade: B

Defense

After ranking a putrid 29^th in the league with 26.7 points per game allowed in 2010, the Texans improved all the way to 4^th in the league with 17.4 points per game allowed. Adding Wade Phillips as the defensive coordinator made a huge difference, but you can’t forget the addition of guys like Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning through free agency, JJ Watt and Brooks Reed through the draft, and DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin returning from injury. As good of a defensive coordinator as Phillips is, there wouldn’t have been much he could have done if they still had the lack of talent they had in 2010. Even with the loss of Mario Williams this offseason, they should still be a very strong defense this year.

Defensive Line

As good as their defense is, no one on the squad had a rating on ProFootballFocus higher than JJ Watt, who had a 33.2 rating and ranked 4^th at his position. He was equally great against the run as he was as a pass rusher, with 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures (including playoffs), good for a 9.3% rate on 557 pass rush snaps. He also had a pick six in their playoff victory over the Bengals. Oh, and did I mention he was a rookie? He has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler.

Opposite him, the Texans got a surprise year from Antonio Smith. Smith, a career journeyman and mediocre starter, actually ranked 7^th at his position with a 12.1 rating last year. He was the definition of “good pass rusher/bad run stuffer,” ranking 2^nd at his position behind only Justin Smith as a pass rusher, but ranking dead last as a run stuffer. He had 8 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures on 544 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.8%, very strong for his position. His 11 penalties need to be cleaned up, however.

Sometimes, on clear running downs, the Texans rotate in Tim Jamison, a solid run stuffer who is a strong backup at all 3 defensive line positions in the Texans’ 3-4. At nose tackle, the Texans rotate in two mediocre players primarily, Shaun Cody and Earl Mitchell. That position may be their biggest weakness on defense, but they use a lot of base packages so the nose tackle position isn’t that important in their scheme. They also used a 4^th round pick on Jared Crick, who figures to see some snaps as a situational player as a rookie.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

While JJ Watt and Antonio Smith are great pass rushers, they’re not the only reason why the Texans managed 44 sacks last year, despite missing Mario Williams for every game except 5. Brooks Reed, a 2011 2^nd round pick, and Connor Barwin, a 2009 2^nd round pick, both got great pressure on the quarterback last season, with Reed doing so as a rookie and Barwin doing so in his 1^st year off of a major injury and despite having minimal previous experience in the NFL.

Barwin managed 12 sacks, 19 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 598 pass rush snaps, good for a 9.9% rate, while Reed had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 471 pass rush snaps, good for a 8.9% rate. The Texans drafted Whitney Mercilus in the 1^st round to rotate with these guys and he should have an immediate impact as a situation pass rusher. I thought he was the best pass rusher in this draft class and that he could have an Aldon Smith esque rookie season with enough playing time.

As weird as it may sound, the Texans won’t really miss Mario Williams, who they played very well without last season. Reed, meanwhile, may see some snaps at middle linebacker, another position where he could be a fit. He’s stronger against the run than he is as a pass rusher and can hold his own in coverage.

Reed may be needed at middle linebacker because the Texans traded away DeMeco Ryans. Ryans, a former Pro Bowler, played pretty well last year, but was never as good of a fit in a 3-4 as he was in a 4-3 and with the team pressed up against the cap, they sold him to the Eagles for cap relief, a 4^th round pick, and a swap of 3^rd round picks.

In his absence, the Texans are expected to platoon Bradie James and Darryl Sharpton. James has experience in Phillips’ scheme from Dallas and Phillips thinks the world of him and may even make him their defensive signal caller when he’s on the field, but he was only a mediocre situational player in Dallas last year and he’s heading into his age 31 season so it’s an obvious downgrade. Sharpton, meanwhile, was a 4^th round pick in 2010. Al Sharpton’s nephew, Darryl is inexperienced, but expected to see some snaps at middle linebacker this year. And, as I’ve mentioned, we could see Reed here some as well.

Whoever plays at that middle linebacker spot will be playing next to one of the best in the business, Brian Cushing. Cushing made a seamless transition from 4-3 outside linebacker to 3-4 inside linebacker last year, earning himself a 24.8 rating on ProFootballFocus, good for 4^th at his position. Cushing is very strong in all 3 facets of the game, covering well, stopping the run well, and even contributing as a blitzer. No middle linebacker was sent on a blitz more often last year than Cushing, who blitzed 225 times and picked up 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures, good for a very impressive 15.6% rate.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

In the secondary, Johnathan Joseph was as advertised, after signing a 48.75 million dollar deal over 5 years to go from the Bengals to the Texans last offseason. He was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked cornerback last year, struggling some against the run, but ranking 4^th in coverage. Joseph allowed 51 completions on 91 attempts (56.0%) for 602 yards (6.6 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and only committing 2 penalties. Among eligible cornerbacks (75% of team’s snaps), he was 2^nd in QB rating allowed.

Opposite him, however, could be a problem. Jason Allen is gone. He really stabilized things, playing slot cornerback, outside cornerback, and even some safety. He allowed 39 completions on 77 attempts (50.6%) for 457 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties.

With him gone, Kareem Jackson is going to be expected to step up. The 2010 1^st round pick is bordering on bust. He’s been terrible in coverage in each of his first 2 years in the league. Last year, he allowed 38 completions on 62 attempts (61.3%) for 646 yards (10.4 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 5 penalties. He was good against the run, 5^th at his position in fact, but he ranked 84^th at his position, out of 98, in coverage and had a -5.0 overall rating. He’ll need to step up in his 3^rd year and be a solid full time starter, otherwise he could find himself replaced after the season. If he slips up, Brice McCain could step into the starting lineup. Luckily for them, McCain looks like a budding star.

McCain was 8^th at his position in terms of his rating in coverage, despite playing just 482 snaps, and 2^nd at his position in QB rating allowed, among eligible cornerbacks (25% of team’s snaps). He allowed 24 completions on 51 attempts (47.1%) for 251 yards (4.9 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 deflections, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 3 penalties. The 2009 6^th round pick appears to have a bright future. The Texans also have 2011 2^nd round pick Brandon Harris in the mix, but he barely played as a rookie, playing 28 snaps, and he’s behind McCain on the depth chart right now.

At safety, the Texans also have another nice offseason addition from the 2011 offseason, Danieal Manning. Manning is a solid safety who is better in coverage than against the run. Next to him, however, Glover Quin really struggled last year. With a -8.3 rating, he was their worst starter last year and he somehow played more snaps than anyone on the team. Unless 2011 5^th round pick Shiloh Keo, who also only played 28 snaps as a rookie, can step up, the Texans don’t appear to have a replacement handy. This may be a position they focus on in the 2013 NFL Draft. Overall defensively, they have a very strong bunch and could easily be a top-5 scoring defense again.

Grade: B

Head Coach

After making the playoffs last year, Gary Kubiak went from a man perennially on the list of guys talked about as candidates to get fired to a guy who was a Coach of the Year candidate. Hiring Wade Phillips definitely helped and the calls for his job were legitimate as the team annually missed the playoffs, but he’s got the talent now to win 10+ games for at least the next few years and if he does that, he’ll have plenty of job security.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Texans have lost a lot, but they’re so talented that they can make up for it. They were 7-3 when Schaub went down last year and 10-3 at one point before dropping their final 3. They made it to the AFC Semis with a backup quarterback. Even when Schaub was healthy, his #1 receiver was not. They run the ball incredibly well and play strong defense, but also can air it out when necessary, so long as Schaub and Johnson are healthy.

When Schaub went down, they had 273 points scored and 166 points allowed, meaning they were averaging 27.3 points per game and allowing 16.6 and that’s over 10 games, a good sample size. That’s insane. That would have made them the 5^th ranked offense and the 3^rd ranked defense (tied with Baltimore), easily the only team in the league in the top-5 in both categories.

If you extrapolate those averages over 16 games, that’s 437 points for and 267 points against, which would have been the 4^th highest differential in the NFL behind Green Bay, New Orleans, and New England. That would have given them a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.20 wins, which would have been 2^nd behind only San Francisco’s 12.30. Speaking of Pythagorean Expectation, they were the only team in the league to win 10+ games and not exceed their Pythagorean Expectation. Their Pythagorean Expectation was 10.86 wins, good for 7^th in the NFL.

My only tiny concern with them is that they regress, that their miss the players they lost more than expected, that the Schaub/Kubiak duo reverts to old habits of losing, or that Schaub and/or Johnson get hurt. However, my money is on Schaub having a strong year, winning 12 games, quarterbacking one of the most complete teams in the NFL heading into the playoffs, getting franchise tagged and getting an extension on par with the Eli Mannings or the Ben Roethlisbergers or the Philip Rivers of the world in the offseason.

Schedule wise, things actually look pretty easy. The AFC is the significantly weaker conference and they may play in the weakest division in the league aside from them. They went 4-2 in the division last year, 3-0 before the Schaub injury and could easily go 5-1 or so this year. Outside of the division, they play host to Miami, Green Bay, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. 3 of those games are incredibly easy and I think they can give both Green Bay and Baltimore runs for their money in Houston. 4-1 in those games seems right, putting them at 9-2 in the 11 games I’ve mentioned so far.

Their other 5 games send them to Denver, New York to play the Jets, Chicago, Detroit, and New England. That New England game is going to be very tough as the Patriots almost never lose at home, but they’re better than the other 4 teams so they should be able to get at least the 3-2 needed to round their record out at 12-4.

Projection: 12-4 1^st in AFC South

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Cleveland Browns 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 14, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Browns

Offense

Poor Browns. The franchise has not made the playoffs since 2002 and in the 9 seasons since, they’ve lost double digit games in 8 of 9 seasons, 11+ in 7 of 9 seasons, and finished in last place in 7 of 9 seasons. Last season was no different as a popular sleeper team heading into the season finished 4-12. Coming off a promising rookie year, Colt McCoy regressed, in large part due to the lack of supporting cast he had. Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis got hurt and struggled when on the field, leaving them with zero offensive playmakers. They finished 4-12.

Things didn’t get much better in the offseason as the Browns failed to sign any major free agents, failed to trade up for Robert Griffin, and missed out on Kendall Wright, who they were targeting at pick 22. The Browns were forced to settle for Brandon Weeden, a soon to be 29 year old quarterback, who the Browns were planning on targeting either late in the 1^st after trading up or with their 2^nd round pick.

Offensively, the Browns were the worst team in the league, in my opinion. Both Kansas City (13.3) and St. Louis (12.1) did score fewer points than them, but the Browns were a close 3^rd with 13.6 points per game. However, the Browns did this despite nailing 7 field goals of 50+ yards and turning the ball over a mere 19 times. Turnovers are pretty unpredictable on a yearly basis. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games.

That difference could be even more pronounced for the Browns this year. Colt McCoy was a very physically limited quarterback, but he rarely turned the ball over. In 685 career throws, he threw just 20 interceptions, a rate of 2.9%. Of course, he threw the same amount of touchdowns, an incredibly low rate, but their turnovers will go up this season. Weeden, as opposed to McCoy, has all the physical tools, but can be very erratic with the football.

Still, Weeden is an upgrade at quarterback overall and the Browns also upgraded the running back position with Trent Richardson. Those additions will cancel out the increase in turnovers, but anyone expecting them to be greatly improved over the 13.6 points per game they scored last year doesn’t understand that that figure was not a completely accurate representation of how bad they were offensively last year. They’re upgraded, sure, but they still have tons of problems.

Quarterback

The Browns currently have two notable quarterbacks on their roster, Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden. McCoy was the starting quarterback for their terrible offense last year and Weeden is the 1^st round pick brought in to replace him. Weeden turns 29 this season so the Browns want to get him on the field as quickly as possible. He’s fully expected to be their week 1 quarterback and the Browns are very publicly shopping McCoy on the cheap.

McCoy was awful last year, but had no help. He’s still young and cheap and has more experience than most quarterbacks his age, so, at the price of a late rounder, he’ll be a tempting option for teams who are not satisfied with their backup quarterback. He’s an above average backup and will get traded at some point in Training Camp. If not, the Browns will probably cut him as he’s still popular in the locker room and they don’t want Weeden looking over his back shoulder should he struggle as a rookie.

And I do think Weeden will struggle. Recent seasons by quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and others have told us the contrary, but quarterbacks don’t normally have strong rookie seasons. Weeden may be 29 in October (older than Aaron Rodgers), but he’s not quite as NFL ready as some of the rookies in recent years have been.

He comes out of a spread offense and will have to learn how to play in Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense. He also can be overconfident in his arm and struggles under pressure. Finally, he comes out of a conference that has not produced successful quarterbacks over the past decade (only 3 non-rookie NFL starters are from the Big 12: Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Blaine Gabbert, who have played in a combined 0 playoff games). He’ll lead this team on more scoring drives than Colt McCoy did, but also turn the ball over a lot and I don’t see a successful rookie year in his future, especially with a poor offensive supporting cast.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Bengals have a lot of recent high draft picks in their receiving corps, but they’re all raw at best. Their top 4 receivers, in some order, will be Greg Little, a 2011 2^nd round pick, Mohamed Massaquoi, a 2009 2^nd round pick, Travis Benjamin, a 2012 4^th round pick, and Josh Gordon, a 2^nd round pick in the 2012 supplemental draft. Massaquoi showed a lot of promise as a rookie, leading the team with 34 catches for 624 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, he’s managed just 67 catches for 867 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2 seasons since. It’s time to stop expecting a breakout season that doesn’t seem to be coming.

Massaquoi will still start, sadly. He’ll start opposite Greg Little. Little was their leading receiver with 61 catches for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns last year, but he was 2^nd in the league in drops with 14 and managed a pathetic 6.3 yards per target. Only one wide receiver graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus. However, he was very raw last season as a 2^nd round rookie who didn’t play at all in 2010 and who never had big time production in college. He should be better in 2012 and the buzz around him this offseason has been positive with some even suggesting he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player this year with an upgrade at quarterback. He’s certainly got that kind of upside, but he could still be very raw.

The other two receivers I mentioned are both rookies. Travis Benjamin was a 4^th round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He’s fast and a deadly returner, but there’s a reason he was available in the 4^th round. He’s incredibly raw as a receiver. He’ll sadly line up in the slot. Josh Gordon, meanwhile, recently was a 2^nd round pick in the supplemental draft. He’s got more upside and talent than Benjamin, but he’s also been out of football for almost 2 years and hasn’t had the benefit of OTAs and minicamps that other receivers have had.

Rookie wide receivers almost always take a year or so to adjust to the speed of the NFL, but Gordon could really struggle with that as a rookie, as well as with the playbook. If he ever has an impact, it’ll be in 2013 and beyond. I expect him to be their 4^th receiver this season, but after Little, the next 3 guys could conceivably line up in any order on the depth chart.

The Browns also have a good number of tight ends that they’ll use. Ben Watson had a strong year in 2010 with 68 catches for 763 yards and 3 touchdowns, but in 2011, he caught just 37 passes for 410 yards and 2 touchdowns. Heading into his age 32 season, his best years are behind him. Evan Moore has never been a starter, but you can definitely argue that he’s deserved more playing time than he’s gotten over the past few years. Over the past 3 years, Moore actually ranks 10^th in yards per route run. He’s not much of a blocker, but he deserves more playing time than an aged Watson. He figures to be underutilized again this season. 2011 4^th round pick Jordan Cameron, an athletic but raw player, also figures to be in the mix, as does veteran Alex Smith. They caught 6 and 14 balls last year respectively.

Grade: C

Running Backs

One thing the Browns should be able to do pretty well is run the football. The Browns traded up to get Trent Richardson in the 2012 NFL Draft. Rookie running backs don’t have a recent history of success as 1^st round backs have averaged just 165 carries in their rookie year since 2007. However, Richardson is probably more talented than any of those backs, with the exception of Adrian Peterson. A true 3 down back, Richardson doesn’t have a single flaw and only injuries can stop him from being a Pro Bowl caliber back at some point in his career. Along with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and David DeCastro, Richardson is one of the few players who I think will be among the top-10 at their position as a rookie.

One concern for the Browns has to be their depth. There is some concern with injuries with Richardson because of his position and because rookie running backs do seem to have trouble adjusting from a 12 or 13 game schedule to a 16 game schedule. Their #2 back is Brandon Jackson, a veteran who is good as a pass protector and pass catcher, but heading into his age 27 season, Jackson has a career 3.8 YPC on 347 carries. Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty will compete to be the #3 back. Neither of those guys had much success when counted on last season.

Grade: B+

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Offensive Line

Like every other group on their offense, their offensive line was also a problem last season. I think they did more to fix their offensive line problems than they did to fix their quarterback or wide receiver problems, but not nearly as much as they did to fix their running backs problems. The new addition is 2^nd round rookie Mitchell Schwartz, who is expected to start at right tackle.

Schwartz was a bit of a peculiar selection ahead of players such as Jonathan Martin and Cordy Glenn, but he’s a good player who should be a solid starter at right tackle. He’s a rookie, however, so it’s unreasonable to expect a lot of him right away. He should still be an upgrade over Tony Pashos, the incumbent who is currently still available as a free agent as of this writing. Pashos allowed 7 sacks, but was actually a pretty solid pass protector, allowing just 15 pressures and no quarterback hits. He was penalized 6 times. His biggest weakness was as a run blocker. As a rookie, Schwartz should be the exact opposite type of player.

Solid as pass blockers and poor as run blockers was a theme upfront for the Browns. The 39 sacks they allowed last year wasn’t too bad, good for 19^th out of 32 teams, but they struggled to open things up on the ground. They were ProFootballFocus’ 11^th ranked pass blocking team and 20^th ranked run blocking team. The biggest problem was their guards.

With Eric Steinbach missing the whole season with a back injury, the Browns were forced to start Shawn Lauvao and Jason Pinkston at guard. Lauvao, a 2010 3^rd round pick, has never done well as a starter. Last year, he allowed 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures, committed 11 penalties and struggled as a run blocker. He had a -8.5 rating on ProFootballFocus. Pinkston, a 5^th round rookie last year, was even worse, with a -19.5 rating, ranked 69^th among 76 guard on ProFootballFocus. He allowed 1 sack, 10 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures, committed 4 penalties and was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst rated run blocking guard.

Steinbach has not been brought back after his back injury and is still available on the open market. He may have to retire. The Browns didn’t bring in any upgrades. It’s possible 5^th round rookie Ryan Miller could have to step into the lineup, but that wouldn’t be a good thing. Pinkston and Lauvao are still young and could improve, but it’s still a position of major weakness.

Sandwiched between those two guards is center Alex Mack. Mack is one of two bright spots on the Browns’ offensive line. He was ProFootballFocus’ 9^th rated center last year with a 7.3 rating. Joe Thomas is the other bright spot. Thomas is one of the league’s premier offensive tackles and has been since being the 3^rd overall pick in 2007, but last year was actually a bit of a down year for him.

He was ProFootballFocus’ 10^th ranked offensive tackle, which is pretty good for a down year, but it was a down year nonetheless. In 2010, he ranked 8^th and in 2009 he ranked 2^nd. He’s been ProFootballFocus’ highest rated pass blocking offensive tackle over the past 3 years. Last year, he was their 1^st ranked pass blocking offensive tackle, allowing just 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, but 9 penalties hurt his rating, as did his play as a run blocker. He’s been better as a run blocker in the past though.

Overall, it’s a pretty mixed bag upfront for the Browns. Joe Thomas and Alex Mack are among the best at their respective positions, while both of their guards struggled last year, and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is an unknown commodity. Overall, they figure to be better in pass protection than as run blockers again. The bad news is, overall, the Browns still really like talent offensively unless Weeden can have a strong rookie year, which I don’t expect.

Grade: B-

Defense

The Browns’ defense is the only reason why the Browns won any games last season. They ranked 5^th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5^th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21^st against the run with 4.4 YPC. However, they were just 2 points per game away from being 13^th in terms of scoring and .2 YPA away from being 13^th in terms of pass defense. Their ranks are a bit misleading in those two categories as they were on top of big chunks of teams with similar numbers.

They also only managed 32 sacks, with only one player managing more than 6 sacks. Furthermore, an in depth look at their defense (which I’ll get into) shows a lack of talent relative to where they ranked last year. The good news is that they did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

Defensive Line

Their most talented defensive lineman is defensive end Jabaal Sheard, who was their only pass rusher with more than 6 sacks last season. Sheard, a mere 2^nd round rookie, had 9 sacks, as well as 4 quarterback hits and 42 quarterback pressures. On 494 pass rushes, that was good for a rate of 11.3%. He has a bright future. Ahytba Rubin was 2^nd on the team in sacks with 6. The defensive tackle also had 5 quarterback hits and 17 quarterback pressures on 486 pass rushes, good for a rate of 5.8%. He was also good against the run and finished with an 8.9 rating on ProFootballFocus.

The other two spots on the defensive line are weaknesses. Phil Taylor, who was alright as a 1^st round rookie last year, had a bright future going into his 2^nd season this year, but the defensive tackle tore his pectoral in the offseason and could miss the entire season. Even if he’s good to go late in the season, the Browns won’t bring him back and risk further injury if they’re out of the playoff race, which I expect them to be.

In his absence, the Browns have 3 players competing for the starting spot. All 3 of Scott Paxson, Billy Winn, and John Hughes could see significant snaps at the position. Paxson is a veteran run stuffer, who doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, while Hughes and Winn are 3^rd and 6^th round rookies respectively. Hughes was a major reach in the 3^rd round. No one expected him to go that high, not even Hughes himself. He didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft because he didn’t expect to go anywhere above the 4^th round. Winn, on the other hand, was a steal in the 6^th round. He was actually a consensus higher rated player than Hughes was before the draft.

The 4^th defensive lineman last year was Jayme Mitchell, but he was awful. With a -15.3 rating, only one defensive end graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus and he was the worst pass rusher by more than 6 points. On 376 pass rushes, he had 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback sacks, good for a pathetic rate of 4.0%.

He’s gone, but the Browns replaced him with an equally pathetic pass rusher. Frostee Rucker, previously of the Bengals, managed 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 215 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 5.1%. That somehow made him deserving of a 20.5 million dollar deal over 5 years. He’s a solid run stopper, who ranked 12^th on ProFootballFocus last year in that facet, but that hardly makes him worth that kind of money, especially since he was just a situational player last year. He’ll play some defensive tackle on passing downs.

On passing downs, Juqua Parker will come in after signing a 3 million dollar deal coming over from Philadelphia. Parker was a good situational pass rusher last year, but he played only 262 snaps last year. On 146 pass rush snaps, he had 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 13.7%, but added snaps could cause him to struggle more in Cleveland this year. He’s also 34. For those keeping score, they’ll be paying Frostee Rucker and Juqua Parker 7 million combined this year. For that kind of money, they could have actually signed a good defensive end, provided one actually wanted to come to Cleveland.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Browns resigned one of, if not their best defensive player, D’Qwell Jackson, this offseason. However, they really overpaid for him. Middle linebackers were greeted with a cold market this offseason with guys like David Hawthrone signing for 19 million over 5 years, Curtis Lofton signing for 27.5 million over 5 years, and Stephen Tulloch signing for 25.5 million over 5 years. The Browns locked up Jackson before free agency for a whopping 42.5 million over 5 years, which looks ridiculous now.

Nonetheless, the Browns do have a great player signed. When healthy, Jackson is one of the league’s best middle linebackers. Last year, he played in all 16 games and rated 8^th at his position on ProFootballFocus with an 18.4 rating. The problem is he’s injury prone. Before last year, he missed 26 games in the previous 2 seasons. He’s had some injuries this offseason too, so it’s a situation Browns fans should worry about.

The Browns are already missing one linebacker. Scott Fujita has been suspended for the first 3 games of the season for his role in BountyGate. Fujita signed from the Saints last offseason and there was no way for them to know he would eventually be suspended so this is just bad luck on the Browns’ part (what else is new). Fujita is a decent player, but also heading into his age 33 season. In his absence, Kaluka Maiava is expected to start. Maiava did that last year when Fujita missed time with injury and he was solid.

Rounding out the linebacking corps is Chris Gocong, who is pretty bad. He was originally signed to play in the Browns’ 3-4, but when they switched to a 4-3 last year, he was not a fit and struggled equally against the run and in coverage. He could be pushed by Maiava or 4^th round rookie James-Michael Johnson in the middle of the season.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

The Browns’ secondary is headlined by 3^rd year player Joe Haden. Haden has been a shutdown cornerback ever since the Browns inserted him into the starting lineup late in 2010, after using the 7^th overall pick on him in the 2010 NFL Draft. He was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked cornerback in coverage, a big part of why the Browns were so good against the pass last year, and he also played the run well as well.

Last season, he allowed 42 completions on 85 attempts (49.4%) for 657 yards (7.7 YPA) and 3 touchdowns. He didn’t have an interception, but it’s not like he didn’t have chances as he was tied for the league lead with 17 pass deflections. I’ve already mentioned that the Browns figure to have more takeaways in 2012, based on history. Haden turning a few of those deflections into interceptions is an obvious way that can happen. His one weakness was that he was penalized 9 times, but he’s a great overall cornerback. He’s never made a Pro Bowl, but he’ll be a perennial Pro Bowler once people realize how good he is and he might not even be at his best yet, which is scary. He’s not even 24 until next April.

Opposite him, Sheldon Brown also played very well. Brown allowed just 35 completions on 76 attempts (46.1%) for 485 yards (6.4 YPA), 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, with 8 deflections and 4 penalties. He did struggle against the run, however, but among eligible cornerbacks (60% of team’s snaps) last year, he had the 6^th lowest QB rating against, even lower than Haden’s (interceptions really help bring the rating down, which is why Haden’s wasn’t that low). The issue with Brown, however, is that he’s going into his age 33 season. There was speculation that he could be cut or moved to safety this offseason. It seems like he’ll start the year as their #2 cornerback, but he could decline sharply at any time.

If that happens, the Browns wouldn’t have a lot of options. Dimitri Patterson played well on the slot last year and was rewarded with a 3 year, 16.05 million dollar deal this offseason, but he really struggled in 2010 with the Eagles as a starter, ranking 99^th among 100 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus that year. I wouldn’t expect him to play well if he has to start. Meanwhile, their dime back will either be 2011 6^th round pick Buster Skrine, who played 124 snaps last year, or Trevin Wade, a rookie 7^th round pick. I wouldn’t expect either of them to be able to step in and play well in the starting lineup either. They have to hope Brown holds up another year and then they can focus on the position in the 2013 draft or in free agency.

At safety, the Browns lost one starter this offseason as Mike Adams signed with the Broncos. Replacing him will be either Usama Young, who played well in relief of an injured TJ Ward last season, or Eric Hagg, an inexperienced 2011 7^th round pick. Ward, meanwhile, is back, for now at least. The 2010 2^nd round pick has had a history of injuries dating back to his days at the University of Oregon. When healthy, he’s an above average safety who is better against the run than in coverage.

As you can see, the talent isn’t really there defensively as much as their ranks from 2011 would suggest. They have one very talented player in each level of the defense in Jabaal Sheard, D’Qwell Jackson, and Joe Haden, but other than it, it’s pretty hit or miss. Also, while they ranked highly in key categories last year, they were also very close to ranking middle of the pack in those same categories. They should force more turnovers than last year, but they’re not an elite defense. Their defense will win them some games, but the offense will have to perform if they’re even going to be average overall as a team.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Pat Shurmur has only one year of Head Coaching experience, going 4-12 last year, but Team President Mike Holmgren, who also happens to be a Super Bowl winning former Head Coach, is a big fan of him. Holmgren brought him in personally and gave Shurmur a vote of confidence this offseason. Also, when Shurmur didn’t want Colt McCoy any more, the Browns brought in Brandon Weeden, even though Holmgren was a fan of McCoy, who he selected in the 3^rd round in 2010. I don’t know if that makes him a good coach, but he could have 2 years or so of job security even if they continue to be a last place team.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Browns have been one of the league’s worst teams over the past 10 years and things don’t look like they’ll turn around this season. They were awful offensively last year and the mere 13.6 points per game they averaged last season don’t even illustrate just how poor they were on that side of the ball. Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson are upgrades and they have some upside in their receiver corps, but overall their offense looks devoid of talent once again. If Brandon Weeden can have a strong rookie year, that will make a huge difference as quarterback is the most important position on the field, but I’m not a fan.

Defensively, they are better, if only by default. They should be able to win some games because of their defense once again, but they weren’t really as good as the 5^th place rank of their scoring defense would suggest as they were actually closer to 13^th place than 4^th in terms of points per game allowed. The same thing is true with their 5^th ranked passing defense. A closer look at their defensive talent shows an average defense at best.

They could be better than they were last year, but they could also be worse. In terms of talent, they are one of the worst teams in the league so anything from 2-6 wins is possible after a 4 win season last year. I have them at 3-13, because that’s just how it worked out. Their schedule is pretty tough and they play in a tough division.

Last year, they went 0-6 in their division. I think Cincinnati and Baltimore will be worse so 1 or 2 wins are possible, but they should struggle with their divisional competition once again. Outside of the division, they play host to Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Diego, Kansas City, and Washington. I have 4 of those teams making the playoffs and even Kansas City could give them a game. 1-4 is definitely possible in those 5 games. They also go to New York to play the Giants, to Indianapolis, to Dallas, to Oakland, and to Denver. They could win one or two of those games, but I think every one of those teams is better than them (except maybe Oakland) and those games are all on the road.

Projection: 3-13 4^th in NFC North

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Cincinnati Bengals 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 13, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Offense

The Bengals shocked everyone in 2011, going from 4 wins to 9 and securing the AFC’s 6^th and final playoff spot. Every year since 2003, at least one team has improved from 5 or fewer wins and made the playoffs and last year that was the Bengals. Andy Dalton not only beat the odds as a rookie quarterback, but also as a 2^nd round pick quarterback, the history of which has not been strong in the NFL. The Bengals also topped off their surprise season by trading Carson Palmer, who they weren’t even using, to the Raiders for a 1^st and 2^nd round pick.

However, things are not all good. The Bengals, while they made the playoffs, did not beat a single playoff team, going 0-8 (including playoffs) in 8 games against playoff teams and 9-0 against non-playoff teams. They also finished 3-6 in their final 9 games after a 6-2 start and Andy Dalton completed just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA and 8 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in their final 9 games, as opposed to 61.5% for an average of 6.6 YPA and 12 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in their first 8 games. Finally, teams that go from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs often regress the next season, averaging 2.8 fewer wins than their playoff season.

Quarterback

I got into Andy Dalton 1^st/2^nd half splits in the intro. A big part of the reason for his struggles late in the season was because the Bengals’ schedule got tougher. They had to face Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Houston 6 times in a 9 game stretch, while their toughest 2 games in the first half of the season where Denver and San Francisco. Sure enough, Dalton’s splits against playoff and non-playoff teams were not pretty.

Against non-playoff teams, Dalton completed 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. However, against playoff teams, he completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Good teams knew how to make him struggle so it’s no surprise he was 0-8 in those 8 games.

Heading into his 2^nd season in the NFL, many expect him to take the next step as a quarterback, but I expect him to do the opposite. Colt McCoy was a similar quarterback who had a similar rookie year. Both played well in the 1^st half or so of their rookie year, but struggled down the stretch. McCoy started 2-3 in his first 5 games, despite playing Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England, Jacksonville and the Jets, and only lost one game by more than a touchdown. He completed 63.8% of his passes for 7.7 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. However, in his final 3 games, he completed 56.8% of his passes for 6.3 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, losing all 3, including 3 by double digits.

The Browns still were a popular sleeper coming into 2011, before McCoy showed his true colors, completing 57.2% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He has since been benched for 1^st round rookie Brandon Weeden. Like McCoy, Dalton is physically limited, but accurate and intelligent.

Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden did a masterful job of masking his flaws and taking advantage of his strengths with a great offensive game plan during the first half of the season, but the problem with that is that defenses eventually catch on and figure out how to scheme against you. It’s the same reason why Kyle Orton went 6-0 in his first 6 starts in Denver with Josh McDaniels and 5-22 in his next 27.

Many people, including some who know the game a lot better than me, have cast doubts on Dalton’s ability to be a franchise quarterback long term. The Bengals have run a good PR campaign in response to accusations that people within the organization had doubts about Dalton’s upside, but what do you expect them to do? Count me in the non-believer group when it comes to Dalton. Quarterbacks fall to the 2^nd round for a reason and there’s a reason why the list of quarterbacks drafted in the 2^nd round in the past decade or so to have long term success starts and ends with Drew Brees.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

The Bengals have run a one back system for 3 years with Cedric Benson. Benson, however, is easily the worst back to finish in the top-10 in carries for 3 straight years (Maurice Jones Drew, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson). On 895 carries, he rushed for 3429 yards (3.8 YPC), scored just 20 times, and caught just 60 passes. Illustrating how little the league thinks of Benson, he is currently still unsigned as of this writing. I know he’s old, but if he were anywhere near talented enough to deserve to be in the company he was carries wise, he’d have a contract right now, easily, even at his age.

Benson has been replaced by a two back system, but I don’t know if things are any better. The two backs in the system, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott, both averaged less than 4 yards per carry last season. BJGE (3.7 YPC) is coming over from New England. As a Patriots fan, I watched about 16 or 17 of the Patriots’ 19 games last season (including playoffs) and I can’t tell you how many times I saw BJGE run for 3 yards through a hole. Among eligible backs on ProFootballFocus, the Lawfirm was 61th out of 67 in yards after contact per carry with 2.0.

Belichick loved him because he doesn’t fumble (0 fumbles in 510 career carries) and New England’s passing offense was so good that all they needed him to do was run through holes and not fumble, but that’s not the case in Cincinnati. They’ll need their running game to open things up for the passing game because I expect Dalton to continue to struggle and BJGE is not that kind of back, especially now that he’ll no longer be facing spread out boxes fearing the pass like he was as a Patriot.

He scored 24 times in New England over the past 2 seasons, but 18 of those were in goal-to-go situations. He won’t get nearly as many of those types of touchdowns on a more stagnant offense in Cincinnati. He also offers nothing as a pass catcher, catching 21 passes in 2 seasons with the Patriots, despite having one of the best in the business throwing passes.

His partner in the running back tandem is Bernard Scott (3.4 YPC). Scott has a little bit more speed, while BJGE has a little bit more power, but Scott has never been an effective back in the NFL. There’s a reason he’s only managed 247 carries in 3 seasons as the #2 back to Cedric Benson, who we’ve already established is not very good. He’s also only caught 29 passes. Unless they get some sort of breakout year from 6^th round rookie Dan Herron, the Bengals figure to have the least running back talent of any team in the league.

Grade: C-

Offensive Line

I specify that they figure to have the least running back talent, rather than saying they’ll be the league’s worst running team, because of their offensive line. They don’t have the talent to take advantage of it, but they actually have one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league. In fact, they are one of the best offensive lines in the league in general, as they allowed just 25 sacks last year, good for 4^th fewest in the NFL. That obviously helped Andy Dalton.

Their offensive line figures to be even better this year as they upgraded their only weakness, guard. Left guard was manned by Nate Livings, who graded out well below average on ProFootballFocus with a -13.4 rating. He somehow got a good contract from the Cowboys, but he didn’t deserve it. Opposite him at right guard, Bobbie Williams played alright, but missed a lot of time with injury. The soon to be 36 year old was not brought back. In his absence, Mike McGlynn was awful.

Replacing Livings and Williams/McGlynn are Travelle Wharton and Kevin Zeitler. Wharton struggled some in pass protection with the Panthers last year, allowing 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, but made up for it by being a strong run blocker and by only getting penalized once. He finished last season with a -2.6 rating overall and he’s been better in the past. Heading into his age 31 season, he’s still a solid starter.

Zeitler, meanwhile, was the 27^th overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft. While I thought it was incredibly stupid for the Bengals to trade down from 21 to 27 and pass on a once in a decade prospect in David DeCastro, letting him get to division rival Pittsburgh nonetheless, Zeitler is still a very good football player. The Bengals had him rated higher than DeCastro. I disagree, but he should still be a very solid pro for at least 10 years. With Zeitler and Wharton coming in, that should be enough to take the Bengals from a solid run blocking team to one of the best in the league. Sandwiched between Zeitler and Wharton is Kyle Cook, a solid center, whose strength is run blocking.

Rounding out the offensive line are tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith. Whitworth wasn’t quite his usual self last year, ranking 7^th among offensive tackles with a 13.1 rating, but most of that can be blamed on his struggles as a run blocker. In pass protection, he was as pristine as ever, allowing just 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, 16 quarterback pressures, and committing 8 penalties. He ranked 2^nd on ProFootballFocus as a pass blocker, very typical for him as he’s ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked offensive tackle in pass blocking efficiency over the past 3 years, behind only Joe Thomas and Jake Long. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ top overall offensive tackle and he was much better as a run blocker then. The fact that this guy has never made a Pro Bowl exemplifies what’s wrong with Pro Bowl voting.

Meanwhile, Andre Smith was looking like a bust after struggling with injury and weight problems in his first 2 years in the NFL, after going 6^th overall in the 2009 NFL Draft, but he played well in 2011 at right tackle. Smith managed a solid -1.7 rating and allowed just 3 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 17 quarterback pressures, and committed 8 penalties. He too struggled a little as a run blocker. However, overall, the Bengals have a strong offensive line that deserves more recognition. They figure to run and pass block very well this season. If only they had more quarterback and running back talent to take advantage of it.

Grade: A-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One other talent on the offense that is not fully being taken advantage of is AJ Green. Despite being a mere rookie off of a lockout shortened offseason, Green had an amazing year in 2011, catching 65 passes for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns. He definitely makes Dalton look better than he is. However, if Dalton regresses this season, which I expect him to, it’ll hurt Green’s ability to take the next step as a receiver, at least statistically. His upside is off the charts if they can ever get him a legitimate franchise quarterback. One thing he can clean up is his 10 penalties, but I think you can chalk that up to him being a rookie.

Opposite him, Jerome Simpson is gone, but it’s not like the Bengals don’t have plenty of other options. Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, 3^rd and 5^th round picks in the 2012 NFL Draft respectively, were brought in and the organization is also high on Armon Binns, a 2011 undrafted rookie. Brandon Tate, a mediocre talent, will also be in the mix, but I think the job will go to Sanu.

Sanu was a steal in the 3^rd round and is a perfect fit for the Bengals. Sanu is very limited in the things he can do on the football field, but he’s very good at a few things. He has 4.6 speed and only had 4 receptions of 20+ yards at his time at Rutgers, but he caught 210 passes total in just 3 years despite playing with 3 different freshman quarterbacks. He’s excellent at getting open underneath and is the definition of a possession receiver. He’ll compliment AJ Green well like TJ Houshmanzadeh complimented Chad Ochocinco.

One concern in the receiving corps is the health of Jordan Shipley. Shipley had a strong rookie year in 2010 with 52 catches for 600 yards and 3 scores out of the slot, but missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL, which he admits is still stiff. He was plagued by injuries at Texas in college, which is the reason why he was a 6^th year senior when he eventually came to the Bengals as a 3^rd round pick. He’s already entering his age 27 season. He could start the season on the PUP, in which case the Bengals would likely move Sanu to the slot in 3-wide receiver sets and play someone like Binns or Jones or Tate outside as the 3^rd receiver.

At tight end, the Bengals have Jermaine Gresham. Gresham is an incredibly talented player and was a 1^st round pick in 2010, but he hasn’t lived up to his talent. He hasn’t exceeded 56 catches for 596 yards and 6 touchdowns in either of his 2 seasons, though he somehow made the Pro Bowl last year (Jermaine Gresham Pro Bowler, Andrew Whitworth not, yeah, fuck you Pro Bowl). He could break out in any year, but he’s hurt by his quarterback’s limitations, as is AJ Green and the rest of what’s actually a very good receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Defense

The Bengals had a top-10 defense in 2011, but like the rest of the team, they struggled in the 2^nd half of the season. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games. Part of that was the tougher schedule, but they also really missed Leon Hall. Hall tore his Achilles in November, week 10 against the Steelers. He’s expected to begin the season on the PUP, which means he’ll miss at least 6 games and he might not be himself the entire season. They have a great pass rush (45 sacks in 2011), but a leaky secondary is definitely a problem.

Defensive Line

Their defensive line was obviously a big part of the reason why they had 45 sacks last season. They didn’t have anyone with more than 7.5 sacks in the regular season, but that’s because they use so much rotation on the defensive line. Only two of their defensive lineman played more than 700 snaps last season, playoffs included. They were defensive tackle Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson.

Atkins played incredibly well and has established himself as one of the league’s premier defensive tackles. No one at his position did better than his 34.9 rating on ProFootballFocus, as he managed 9 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 490 pass rush snaps (10.8%), while playing the run well. Starting next to him at defensive tackle is Domata Peko. Peko isn’t nearly as good of a pass rusher with 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures (3.7%), but he also plays the run well. He’s taken off the field on passing downs, so his struggles as a pass rusher don’t matter that much.

Last year, it was Jonathan Fanene, who also played some end, playing defensive tackle on passing downs. He was a decent pass rusher with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures on 332 pass rush snaps (8.7%), but he’s now with the Patriots. To replace him, the Bengals used a 2^nd round pick on Devon Still. Pat Sims and 3^rd round pick Brandon Thompson could also be in the mix, but Atkins, Peko, and Still will get the bulk of the snaps at the position.

At defensive end, the Bengals also lost someone as a free agent as Frostee Rucker took a ridiculous 5 year, 20.5 million dollar contract in Cleveland, even though he’s only a situational run stopper. He’s a good run stopper, who ranked 12^th at his position in that facet, but managed a laughable 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 215 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 5.1%, pathetic for a defensive end.

With him gone, Carlos Dunlap is expected to see more of the field. Given how well Dunlap has done as a situational player, that could be a good thing. Playing only 448 snaps total, Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures. On 302 pass rush snaps, he had a pass rush rate of 15.6%. However, playing more would mean playing more snaps against the run, which is not a strength of his game. Plus, dating back to his days at Florida, he was always better as a situational player than as a starter, which is why a pass rusher as talented as him fell to the 2^nd round in 2010. If Dunlap struggles with more playing time, the Bengals could use Devon Still at defensive end some on non-passing downs. Still played there some in OTAs and minicamp.

The other two members of their defensive end rotation are Michael Johnson and Robert Geathers. Both graded out below average on ProFootballFocus with ratings of -6.5 and -7.5 respectively. Johnson had 7 sacks, but just 6 quarterback hits and 15 quarterback pressures, good for a 6.5% rate on 433 pass rush snaps. Meanwhile, Geathers had 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hits on 274 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 7.3%.

This basically shows a theme. The Bengals had a good amount of sacks last year, but the amount of quarterback hits and quarterback pressures they had, 68 and 142 respectively, was pretty average. Given that, they could have significantly fewer sacks in 2012 as some of their sacks turn to pressures or hits. There’s a reason why they only graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 12^th ranked pass rushing team last year, despite the 5^th most sacks in the league. And if Carlos Dunlap struggles as he’s counted on to play more, that would be a big hit to their pass rush. Against the run, meanwhile, they ranked a solid 8^th with 3.9 YPC allowed. This is a solid bunch on the line for the Bengals, but not an elite one.

Grade: B

Linebackers

While they use a lot of rotation on the defensive line, that’s not so much the case in their linebacking corps. Rey Maualuga and Thomas Howard are every down players when healthy, Maualuga missed 3 games last year, while Brandon Johnson comes in for Manny Lawson in base packages. Howard and Lawson were afterthoughts in free agency in the 2011 offseason, but both played very well. Howard had a decent 2.4 rating, while Lawson, a much better fit in a 4-3 than he was in a 3-4 in San Francisco, had a 10.7 rating, good for 9^th at his position, thanks to his strong play against the run. That’s all they really need him to do. Johnson, meanwhile, is a solid nickel linebacker.

Maualuga, meanwhile, had a down year in his 3^rd year in the league after being an above average linebacker in his first 2 seasons. He had a -6.3 rating after ratings of 6.7 and 9.1 in his first 2 years in the league after going in the 2^nd round in 2009. You can attribute that to injuries that cost him 3 games and limited him in several others. Maualuga had surgery on his bad ankle after the year and should be able to bounce back in 2012. He’s not much in coverage at 260 pounds, but he’s a big thumping run stuffer.

Grade: B

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Secondary

The secondary is the biggest problem defensively for the Bengals, especially if their pass rush regresses some in 2012. Leon Hall is, as of this writing, 8 months removed from a torn Achilles. He’s expected to start the season on the PUP, which means he’ll miss at least 6 games. Even when he’s eligible to return in mid-October, that will only be 11 months since his injury and this injury normally takes a year or more to recover from, especially fully. When he plays this year, he probably won’t be his old self.

In his absence, the Bengals are expected to start Dre Kirkpatrick opposite Nate Clements. Kirkpatrick is a talented player and was worthy of the 17^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, but rookie cornerbacks tend to take a year or two to adjust to the speed of the NFL. Even Patrick Peterson was terrible in coverage last year. Clements, meanwhile, is heading into his age 33 season so his best days are obviously behind him. He was solid last year with a -0.2 rating, but he’s no sure thing going forward.

Free agent acquisition Jason Allen could push him for that starting job. Allen played very well in a variety of different roles for the Texans last year, including outside cornerback, slot cornerback, and some safety. He allowed 39 completions on 77 attempts (50.6%) for 457 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 5 deflections and 2 penalties. He’ll play a significant role this season somewhere, probably on the slot, where he’s best.

At safety, the Bengals have gotten rid of Chris Crocker. He wasn’t very good, but they didn’t replace him. The Bengals are counting on Taylor Mays to start in his absence. Mays was a 2^nd round pick in 2010 by the San Francisco 49ers, but when Jim Harbaugh came in, he traded him for an insignificant pick in a future year and he played just 68 snaps for the Bengals last year. He’s an ideal fit for the Bengals’ system under Mike Zimmer as he has some similarities to Roy Williams, who Zimmer had a ton of success with both in Dallas and some in Cincinnati. If he can work out anywhere, it’s in Cincinnati, but he’s certainly no sure thing. 5^th round rookie George Iloka and 2011 5^th round pick Robert Sands would be next in line should he fail.

Next to whoever starts at strong safety, the Bengals have Reggie Nelson. Nelson was a bust in Jacksonville, but got things together in Cincinnati and was rewarded with a 4 year, 18 million dollar deal. He’s an average safety, who had a -3.1 rating last year and he’s better in coverage than against the run. Overall though, things are average at best in the secondary. Unless Leon Hall can somehow find his old form and do so for more than 8 games or so, they don’t have a single player in the secondary you can describe as anything other than average. Kirkpatrick is a rookie, Mays is inexperienced and had an underwhelming career thus far, while Nate Clements is on his last legs. A secondary headlined by Jason Allen and Reggie Nelson is nothing to be proud of.

Their leaky secondary is only one of the reasons I don’t think the Bengals will matched their 9^th ranked scoring defense from 2011. Their pass rush is overrated if you look purely at sacks and the 23.8 points per game they allowed in their final 9 games would have ranked 22^nd last season. I know they played a tougher schedule in their final 9 games, but, while Baltimore and Pittsburgh are great teams, they’re hardly offensive power houses, while Houston was starting a rookie quarterback. They really missed Leon Hall.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Believe it or not, Marvin Lewis is actually the 3^rd longest tenured Head Coach in the NFL after Andy Reid and Bill Belichick. Despite his 69-74 record and 0-3 record in playoff games, he’s seemingly had 9 lives as a Head Coach, surviving every time his name comes up as someone who could be fired. The Bengals have been very loyal to him. I don’t know if that necessarily makes him a bad coach. He hasn’t exactly had great talent, but he hasn’t been a great one either. If the Bengals regress this year, expect Lewis’ name to be mentioned as someone who could be fired again and this time he might not survive.

Grade: B-

Overall

I’ve gone over the reasons why I think this team will regress this season. I’m not an Andy Dalton believer. They didn’t beat a playoff team all last year. They struggled down the stretch. They’ll miss Leon Hall being at 100%. Also, teams that go from 5 wins to the playoffs win, on average, 2.8 fewer games the following season. This makes sense as teams that do that often do it because so many things go right for them, including the schedule, in the year they make the playoffs. Except for the Hall injury, which will continue to hurt them this year, they had very minimal injuries last season.

Also, the fact that they didn’t beat a single playoff team last year is very troubling. It shows that they really aren’t that caliber of a team. It remains me of the Buccaneers, who did the same thing in 2010, going 9-1 in games against worse than .500 teams and 1-5 in their other 6, with that one win coming against New Orleans week 17 when they weren’t really trying. The Buccaneers almost went from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs in 2010 (they won 10 games and barely missed) and then this year they did the complete opposite, going 4-12 and pushing their record against .500 or better teams to 3-14 over a two year span. The Bengals are a young team just like the Buccaneers.

Schedule wise, they once again have 4 tough divisional games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh and two easier ones against Cleveland. 2-4 seems reasonable again. They may win one of those 4 against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but they’re equally as likely to drop one to Cleveland. Outside of the division, they host Miami, Denver, the Giants, the Raiders, and the Cowboys. Miami and Oakland should be easier, but Denver, the Giants, and the Cowboys will all be tough games, even at home.

They also have trips to Washington and Philadelphia, both of whom will be improved, San Diego late in the season (almost never loses at home late in the season), Kansas City, and Jacksonville. They should win one or more of those games, but there’s definitely the potential schedule wise, for this team win 5 or 6 games, especially if they struggle to pass, in addition to struggling to run, and struggling some defensively.

Just like one team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs every year, one team does the opposite every year and the Bengals are my pick to do so this year. The Bengals did the exact same thing the last time they made the playoffs. They went from 5 wins or less in 2008, to the playoffs in 2009, then back to 5 wins or less in 2010, before making the playoffs in 2011. Bengals fans should prepare themselves to go back down on this roller coaster.

Projection: 4-12 3^rd in NFC North

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Arizona Cardinals 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Offense

It seems like forever ago that the Cardinals were in the Super Bowl, but it was really just February of 2009. It’s amazing what a difference Kurt Warner made. Since he retired after the 2009 season, their yearly sacks allowed have nearly doubled and their passing production has plummeted. Derek Anderson and Max Hall got the first crack at replacing the future Hall of Famer in 2010, but both struggled en route to a 5-11 finish.

In the 2011 offseason, they spent a fortune to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Philadelphia Eagles, but he missed 8 games with injuries last season and backup John Skelton arguably outplayed him. Now heading into 2012, Skelton and Kolb will battle for the starting job in a competition that may have no winner. The silver lining for the Cardinals is a talented young defense that played very well down the stretch en route to a 7-2 record in their last 9 games.

Quarterback

As I said, Skelton and Kolb will battle for the starting job in a competition that may have no winner. The Cardinals are hoping that one quarterback who can definitively start all 16 games, if healthy, command the locker room, and lead their offense will emerge, but they may be disappointed. The pair will also compete well into the Preseason possibly, which could create a divided locker room, which is never a good thing. As the old saying goes, a team with two quarterbacks has none.

Record wise, Skelton appeared to be the better quarterback. Skelton went 6-2, while Kolb went 2-6. However, Skelton was more lucky than good in that his 8 games came right at the same time the defense was stepping up. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. The Cardinals went 7-2 in their final 9 games and Skelton started 8 of them. In Kolb’s only start in that time period, he won. So the two quarterbacks are much more even than their records would suggest.

Statistically speaking, Kolb was the superior quarterback. Kolb completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton did rush for 128 yards as opposed to 65 and took just 23 sacks as opposed to 30 for Kolb.

It will be a close competition in camp. Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt says he’ll pick the best man for the job, but admits that he hopes that quarterback is Kevin Kolb because of how much the team invested in him. I would guess that the week 1 starter will be Kolb, even if he’s not necessarily the superior quarterback in camp and the preseason, for that reason.

The Cardinals better hope he’s the answer. They can’t afford to have him struggle, get hurt, or get benched because, as I already said, a team with two quarterbacks has none. Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason for reasons other than injury rarely make the playoffs. The Broncos did it last year, but at 8-8 and the locker room was behind Tebow for the most part even when Orton was out there. Other than that, I can’t remember the last time that happened.

Grade: C

Offensive line

Whoever the quarterback is, they’ll have to get him time to throw and keep him upright. A bad quarterback behind a bad offensive line is a recipe for disaster. A bad offensive line is exactly what they had last year and the year before. In fact, since Kurt Warner retired, this offensive line seen their sacks allowed vastly increased. Last year, they allowed 54 sacks and the year before they allowed 50.

Their problems start outside at tackle. Left tackle Levi Brown has never lived up to being the 5^th overall pick of the 2007 NFL Draft (two picks before Adrian Peterson). He was actually cut this offseason, but immediately resigned to a more team friendly deal. He’ll make 9 million this season, but has no money guaranteed beyond this year so he can be cut if he continues to struggle, which history suggests will happen. Last season, he allowed 11 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties. He graded out above average as a run blocker on ProFootballFocus, but his -22.2 pass blocking rating was 2^nd worst at his position.

Opposite him, the Cardinals used two different players, Brandon Keith and Jeremy Bridges. That duo essentially split snaps on the season and combined to allow 12 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures, with 5 penalties. Bridges is currently penciled in as the starter, but they’ll be hoping that 4^th round pick rookie Bobby Massie can take over at some point, possibly even week 1. He is a mere 4^th round rookie, however, even if he was regarded as a steal at that point.

Inside, things get better. Right guard Adam Snyder was signed from San Francisco to a significant contract, even though he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst ranked guard with a -24.4. However, center Lyle Sendlein did grade out above average with a 3.6. He’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, however, and the 18 pressures allowed by him were 2^nd worst at his position (with 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit). The last thing either of their quarterbacks need is pressure right up the middle in his face.

Daryn Colledge played alright in his 1^st year after being exiled from Green Bay, but did grade out below average overall with a -3.8. Like Sendlein, he’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker. Those two continue Arizona’s trend of being unable to pass protect, which I don’t see getting much better, even if John Skelton, who took fewer sacks, ends up starting.

They used 4^th and 5th round picks on the position getting Senio Kelemete and Massie and unless either of those two can step up, win a starting job and play well, they will be one of the worst pass blocking offensive lines in the league. Kelemete is a guard who could end up starting if Snyder continues to struggle or has to move to right tackle. Kelemete can also play right tackle, as can Massie. The good news is that ProFootballFocus graded them as the 6^th best run blocking squad in the league.

Grade: C

Running backs

Their strong run blocking offensive line will help their running backs. At running back, they have two talented former high draft picks, but both are also often injured. Ryan Williams was their 2^nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but he has yet to play a snap in the NFL thanks to a nasty knee injury that cost him all of last year. The early prognosis on the injury was that he could miss until 2013, but he’s back and practicing now. It’s fair to question how explosive he’ll be. He also suffered a major injury in college at Virginia Tech, injuring his hamstring, which caused him to miss 4 games in 2010 and be limited in many others as he rushed for just 477 yards on 110 carries.

They’ll need him to be explosive in 2012 because, though Chris Wells played well, they were really lacking in depth at the position. Behind Wells, they had just Alfonso Smith, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Chester Taylor, a big part of the reason why they just carried the ball 389 times on the season, 4^th fewest in the league. A strong running game will take the pressure off the quarterback and play more to the strengths of the offensive line, which would help neutralize their two offensive weaknesses.

The problem, while Wells rushed for 1049 yards and 10 touchdowns on 245 carries, he had never been fully healthy in his career before last year and this offseason he had another knee surgery. It was said to be a minor procedure, but he has still yet to practice with the team as of this writing and admits he doesn’t know when he’ll be able to. Either the initial prognosis was wrong or the Cardinals are trying to be tight lipped and keep the severity of the injury a secret.

Grade: B

Receivers

The receivers are Arizona’s best group offensively. Larry Fitzgerald really needs no explanation. The amount he’s been able to produce in his career despite generally poor quarterback play is amazing. Last year, he caught 80 passes for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns. If he had Calvin Johnson’s quarterbacking, he might be able to produce statistically like Calvin Johnson did last year.

This year, he could be even more dangerous because defenses won’t be able to use as much bracket coverage on him as they did last year for the 1^st time since they traded Anquan Boldin. At Fitzgerald’s urging, the Cardinals drafted Michael Floyd with the 13^th overall pick to play opposite him. Floyd will only be a rookie and rookie receivers tend to struggle (don’t see Jones, Julio and Green, AJ), but he’ll still be an upgrade over the Early Doucet/Andre Roberts duo that started there last year and Floyd should start the season as a starter. Doucet and Roberts, meanwhile, will provide depth, where they fit much better. All of a sudden, the Cardinals have a very deep receiving corps.

The Cardinals have never used the tight end position much in the passing game, but this year could be different. The coaching staff has talked up their tight ends extensively this offseason and even Larry Fitzgerald called them the team’s most impressing group offensively. Even if that’s not necessarily true, they do have a good group at tight end. 2011 3^rd round pick Rob Housler has been talked up by the coaching staff and should start the season as the team’s #1 tight end in a more tight end focused offense. He has all the athletic tools with 4.4 speed at 6-5 248 so he could have a good year, but he’ll be limited by his quarterback and the options around him. He’s also not much of a blocker.

The Cardinals do have two talented blocking tight ends in veterans Todd Heap and Jeff King. They’ll likely duke it out for the right to come in on 2-tight end sets, which it sounds like they’ll be using more of this season. They don’t offer much in the passing game, however. They played most of the team’s snaps at tight end last year, but combined for just 51 catches for 554 yards and 4 touchdowns. At age 32 and 29 respectively, they won’t get better this season.

As talented as their receiving corps is, they will be underutilized unless they can get some sort of stability at quarterback. I don’t expect that Kevin Kolb or John Skelton will be able to do that. They would be able to mask their deficiencies in the passing game and play better to the strength of their offensive line if they could run more, but given the question injuries they have at running back, I don’t see that happening. Besides, Ken Whisenhunt has never been a run heavy Head Coach. I think they’ll struggle offensively once again this season.

Grade: A-

Defense

As I’ve mentioned before, the reason for their strong finish to last season was the play of their defense. In their first 7 games, they allowed 26.1 points per game, as opposed to 18.3 points per game allowed in their final 9 games. Young players like Daryl Washington, Patrick Peterson, Sam Acho, and O’Brien Schofield stepped up big time late last season, to compliment studs already in place on their defense like Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell, and Adrian Wilson.

Defensive line

The defensive line is easily the most talented group on the defense and arguably the most talented bunch on the team. Divisional rival San Francisco has a hell of a bookend pair at defensive end on their 3 man line, but the Cardinals’ duo isn’t too shabby either. Whereas Justin Smith and Ray McDonald ranked 1^st and 3^rd respectively at the position on ProFootballFocus, Campbell and Dockett ranked 2^nd and 8^th respectively.

They were also the only two 3-4 defensive ends in the league to play over 1000 snaps, a testament to their incredible stamina. Both are still relatively young, but proven and also have been incredibly durable in their careers. Not like they needed a ton of it, but they do have solid depth at the position. The veteran Vonnie Holliday only played 159 snaps, but finished with a 6.6 rating. He’s 37 in December, however, so he’s no sure thing going forward.

The one thing stopping this defensive line from going from great to elite is the nose tackle position. The Cardinals thought they filled the void there when they drafted Dan Williams in the 1^st round in 2010, but he’s struggled with weight and durability issues in his 1^st two years in the league. He graded out positively last year, but only played 244 snaps, which wasn’t even the most on his own team at the position.

6^th round rookie David Carter ended up being a hidden gem of their 2011 draft class. He led the team in snaps played at the position with 249 and graded out with a solid 2.0 rating, which is impressive considering where he was drafted in the previous spring. He split time with Nick Eason, who was awful. Eason, who also played defensive end for them, graded out with a -13.7 rating across the two positions despite only playing 257 snaps total.

If Williams can get it going, Carter can be solid depth across all 3 positions, which will make this defensive line one of the best in the league. If he can’t, however, they’ll be in some trouble up the middle because at 300 pounds, Carter is too small to be a true nose tackle and Eason will have to play more than they should be comfortable with. In his 3^rd year in the league, Williams has everything to prove because they could spend an early draft pick on the position again in 2013 if Williams doesn’t show any signs of life.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Cardinals have a trio of young players who all played very well last season, especially late. Daryl Washington and O’Brien Schofield were 2^nd and 4^th round picks respectively in the 2010 NFL Draft, while Acho went in the 4^th last year. Daryl Washington graded out 10^th at his position with a 17.6 rating. He was above average in all areas of the game, playing solid in coverage and even chipping in 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures on 141 pass rushes (21.3%).

His weakest area was the run, which makes sense since he’s played his career in the low 230s, high 220s, but he made an effort to get in the 240s this offseason to add more power. This could allow him to take the next step as a football player, but, while he says he’s moving just as well, there’s always a risk with weight gains like that.

Acho and Schofield actually graded out negatively on ProFootballFocus, with a -3.7 and -6.2 respectively. However, that’s mostly due to their struggles against the run and there’s no denying that their defense was better once they were inserted into the starting lineup. Both are good pass rushers, with Acho recording 6 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures on 211 pass rushes (8.5%) and Schofield recording 5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures on 181 pass rushes (7.7%). Both will be starters this year and their defense was better with them as starters last year. They could both post strong seasons.

The veteran Clark Haggans, meanwhile, actually led the position in snaps played with 885 before losing his starting job late in the season. He was resigned on a one year deal, but at 35, he’s nothing more than a backup or maybe rotational player, which is the way it should be. He had 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures on 339 pass rushes (10.3%) and ended up with a -6.4 rating, 2^nd worst at the position. Good pass rush production from the outside linebacker position, as well as strong play from their defensive line, contributed big time to the 42 sacks they had last year, among the best in the league. They could approach that number again this season.

The weak link of the starting 4 at linebacker is Paris Lenon, who plays inside next to Washington. I’ve been calling him a mediocre veteran who needs to be replaced on several teams for seemingly 5 years now. He’s heading into his age 35 season, but he keeps on starting. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst middle linebacker in the league with a -15.8 rating last year.

The Cardinals are hoping either Stewart Bradley or Quan Sturdivant can challenge him for the starting job. However, Bradley was a bust of their free agency class last offseason as he failed to shake the injuries that plagued him in Philadelphia, while Sturdivant was just a 6^th round pick last year. It seems unlikely that either of them can emerge as a solid starter so this probably will be a spot they’ll have to address next offseason, likely through the draft. Still, all in all, this is a solid linebacking group and part of a good front 7.

Grade: B

Secondary

The secondary was probably the Cardinals’ weakest group last year defensively. Yes, they did rank tied for 10^th against the pass last year with 6.9 YPA, but strong play from the front 7 had a lot to do with that. All of their cornerbacks graded out negatively against the pass, including rookie Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson.

Peterson made the Pro Bowl on the strength of 4 special teams touchdowns, but his -12.6 rating was actually 8^th worst at his position. He allowed 67 completions on 113 attempts (59.7%), 869 yards (7.7 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 8 deflections, and 10 penalties. However, rookie cornerbacks do tend to struggle. Now in his 2^nd year, I expect him to have a breakout year. He’s too talented not to.

Opposite him, the Cardinals are essentially having a four way battle for the #2 cornerback job. Richard Marshall, who was 2^nd on the team in snaps played at the position last year with 849, left for Miami this offseason, but AJ Jefferson, who was 3^rd on the team with 817, is still around. He’ll compete with Greg Toler, a former starter who missed all of last season with an ACL injury, William Gay, a free agent acquisition from Pittsburgh, and 3^rd round rookie Jamell Fleming for the right to start opposite Peterson.

Those 4 cornerbacks will line up 2-5 on the depth chart in some order, most likely. They have plenty of depth there, but I don’t know if there’s a solid starter in that bunch. Jefferson graded out with a -3.1 rating last season, while Toler graded out with a -2.8 as a starter in 2010 and that was before a major knee injury. Meanwhile, Fleming was just a 3^rd round pick in April.

Gay played solid in Pittsburgh last year with a 0.0 rating exactly and he’s familiar with the scheme as defensive coordinator Ray Horton used to be a defensive backs coach in Pittsburgh under defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, so there are a lot of similarities. However, the Cardinals used a similar logic with Bryant McFadden a couple offseasons ago and he turned out to be a free agent bust once he no longer had Pittsburgh’s awesome front 7 in front of him. Jefferson is currently penciled in as the starter as he’s technically an incumbent, with Gay in the slot, but things are wide open after Peterson at cornerback.

Adrian Wilson, their starting strong safety, is easily their most talented defensive back. His 16.1 rating was 2^nd highest at his position and he was actually ranked as the league’s top run stuffing and pass defending safety, though his grade was knocked down overall for 6 penalties. Opposite him, Kerry Rhodes is a marginal starter, but he missed 9 games because of foot and ankle problems. Rashad Johnson played pretty poorly in his absence, so the Cardinals signed veteran James Sanders as insurance this offseason. However, Sanders’ -6.9 rating last year was worse than Johnson’s -2.4 in a similar amount of snaps.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

It’s a mixed bag with Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Yes, he made the Super Bowl just over 3 years ago, but he has yet to post a winning record in the 2 seasons since Kurt Warner retired and he failed massively thus far with the Kevin Kolb experiment. He has a 39-39 record in his career with the Arizona Cardinals and another losing season could put him on the hot seat.

Grade: B

Overall

Given the way they finished last year, you might think I’ll be picking the Cardinals to improve on their 8-8 record from last year. However, I won’t for two main reasons. One is obviously the quarterback position. I don’t think there’s a legitimate starting quarterback on the roster and that they’ll switch quarterbacks at least once, which could create a divided locker room. As I said earlier, it’s only special, rare circumstances when a team makes the playoffs after switching quarterbacks midseason for reasons other than injuries.

The 2^nd reason is that they weren’t actually as good as their 8-8 record suggested last year. They finished with a -36 points differential, which suggests that they actually played as well as a 6-10 team last year. They went 4-0 in overtime games last year. If that record had been 2-2 last year, this would have been a 6-10 team. They finished 8-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and didn’t win once more by than 7 points. They likely won’t have as much luck as last year.

Seattle, who finished 7-9 behind them, actually scored more points and allowed fewer points last year. Seattle also allowed fewer rushing yards and passing yards, while rushing for more yards last year. Only Arizona’s passing yards were higher last year and Seattle upgraded the quarterback position this year and can’t possibly have worse health on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. In fact, I think the only groups where Arizona has the advantage over Seattle is at wide receiver and on the defensive line. Seattle’s quarterbacks, running backs, offensive line, secondary, and Head Coach are all better, while the linebackers are essentially a wash.

Fortunately for the Cardinals, they do have an easy divisional schedule. They’ll win at least one against St. Louis and should win at least one other game in the division. Outside of the division, they host Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Detroit, and Chicago. They face 3 teams that could easily make the playoffs and another one in Buffalo that could surprise. Miami is the only sure thing in that bunch so they could end up with a 2-3 record in those 5 games. They go to New England, Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, and the Jets. New England, Green Bay, and Atlanta are almost sure losses, while the Jets will be very, very tough. 4 or 5 wins seems like where they’ll end up this season. It’s where they could have easily ended up last year without a true quarterback controversy.

Update: Subtracting a win from their total. John Skelton and Kevin Kolb have both looked even worse than expected this preseason, while their offensive line has actually managed to get worse with the loss of Levi Brown at left tackle.

Projection: 3-13 4th in NFC West

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St. Louis Rams 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Offense

After 3 abysmal seasons from 2007-2009, in which they went 6-42, the Rams went 7-9 in 2010 under rookie quarterback Sam Bradford and came up one game short of making the playoffs. Heading into 2011, expectations were high. However, last year ended up being more of the same old for the Rams as they finished 2-14. Injuries thinned an already poor receiving corps, while the offensive line gave up more sacks than any offensive line in the league thanks to a combination of injuries and generally poor play.

Sam Bradford regressed statistically, completing 191 of 358 (53.4%) for 2164 yards (6.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions after completing 354 of 590 (60.0%) for 3512 yards (6.0 YPA), 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 2010. He suffered a high ankle sprain week 6 and was never the same. He also grew very skittish in the pocket under so much pressure and on top of that, his receivers played terrible. A midseason addition of Brandon Lloyd helped, but by that point Bradford was already injured so it was too late.

Meanwhile, defensively, an insane amount of injuries at the cornerback position, with a whopping 10 players at the position finishing the year on IR, killed what was once a decent defense. The Rams played a lot of track meets and simply couldn’t keep up. Now in 2012, the Rams have a new Head Coach, an experienced and successful one, Jeff Fisher, but expectations still vary as it’s very tough to know what to expect from this team. The good news, the Rams have 2 1^st round picks in each of the next 2 seasons thanks to a pre-draft trade with the Washington Redskins, where they moved down from 6 to 2, allowing Washington to take Robert Griffin. If Bradford continues to struggle, however, and Griffin turns out to be what everyone thinks he’ll be, the Rams may end up regretting that move.

Quarterback

When evaluating Sam Bradford, I think you essentially have to throw out last year, which is unfortunate because that means the Rams don’t have nearly enough to accurate evaluate his potential in the NFL yet. However, it would be unfair to evaluate a quarterback based on a season in which he missed a lot of time, played hurt, and injuries thinned an already awful supporting cast.

Bradford was the #1 pick in 2010 and carried a talentless team to 7-9 and the brink of the playoffs that season as a mere rookie, setting the rookie record for pass attempts and completions. He’s their guy and rightfully so. I believe he’s fully capable of succeeding as long as the Rams get him the help he needs. If not, he runs the risk of turning into Alex Smith, who needed a miracle (named Jim Harbaugh) to finally get his career sorted out. Bradford is already on his 3^rd offensive coordinator in as many seasons.

Grade: B

Offensive line

The Rams allowed 34 sacks in their 7 win season in 2010 and 55 in their 2 win season last year. What was the difference? Well, the tackle play was the biggest problem. Both Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold finished the season on IR and neither was that good even when healthy, especially not Saffold, who allowed 11 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, 17 quarterback pressures and committed 10 penalties in just 8 ½ games. Smith, meanwhile, allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 11 quarterback pressures, and committed 4 penalties in 5 ½ games, while grading out below average as a run blocker.

In their absence, Adam Goldberg led the position in snaps played, playing both the left and right side and allowing 6 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures in 637 snaps played, while grading out below average as a run blocker. Saffold was a much better player in 2010 as a rookie, so it’s possible he could have been hurt even when he played and that he’ll bounce back this year. Smith is also young and played hurt, though he’s never really been that good. Given that, I’m not shocked that the Rams didn’t draft a tackle and move one of those two to left guard, but that might have been a good idea. Not only would it have given them more certainty on the outside, it would have upgraded the left guard position mightily.

Last season, Jacob Bell played awful at left guard. He didn’t make it through the full season, but allowed 4 sacks, 3 quarterback pressures, 12 penalties, while ranking well below average as a run blocker. His -15.8 rating on ProFootballFocus was 68^th at the position out of 77. In his absence late last season, the Rams moved center Jason Brown to guard. Brown wasn’t much better there than he was at center, grading out with a -15.8 overall, which was actually the worst of any Rams’ offensive lineman. With Brown at guard, Tony Wragge played center. Wragge made 9 starts at guard and center and graded out with a -10.8 overall. He finished the year 28^th among 35 centers, worse than Brown was at the position.

Bell and Brown are both gone now, as is Wragge. Wragge signed as a reserve in Baltimore, while Bell briefly signed in Cincinnati before retiring. Brown, meanwhile, is still available on the open market after the Rams cut him in the middle of a large free agent contract which he signed in 2009. The Rams signed Scott Wells to replace him in the middle and are obviously hoping he doesn’t have the same fate as Brown. Wells graded out 4^th among centers with the Packers last year, with a 17.9 rating. He should be an above average player and a key part of their offensive line this season.

The Rams signed Harvey Dahl to a similar contract last offseason and he was their only offensive lineman to grade out positively, playing every snap but one for the Rams, beginning the season at right guard and finishing at right tackle. He finished with a 0.5 rating at guard and a 2.7 rating at right tackle. He’ll play right guard this season and is their surest player upfront.

The other guard position is a different story. Bell left, which might be addition by subtraction, but they don’t have anyone proven to start there. In fact, they are holding an open competition for the job between up to 4 players, none of whom have any significant experience in the NFL. Bryan Mattison is the most experienced of the bunch as he made 4 starts at right guard last season, but he had never played in the NFL before that and finished with a -10.8 rating. 5^th round rookie Rokevious Watkins is also in the mix, which shows how thin they are at the position, as are Tim Barnes and Rob Turner, who have never played a snap in the NFL. You’d have a hard time finding a team with less talent at any single position than the Rams do at left guard.

Overall though, there’s some upside on the offensive line for the Rams, with the addition of Scott Wells and possible bounce back years for Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith. The line was better in 2010, allowing just 34 sacks. With the addition of Scott Wells this offseason, to go next to Harvey Dahl, an offseason addition after the 2010 season, the Rams already figure to be better on the offensive line, but tackles Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold could bounce back from injury plagued and injury shortened 2011 seasons. If one of them does that, that’s 3 offensive line spots locked down strong.

Grade: B-

Wide receivers

The Rams’ receivers are their worst group. How bad is it? The Rams leading returning receivers are Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander and they may start 2 rookies at the position, a 2^nd round pick in Brian Quick and a 4^th round pick in Chris Givens. Danny Amendola will line up in the slot. That much we now, but that’s about it. That will be a welcome sight for Bradford. Amendola, Bradford’s leading target in 2010, barely played in 2011 with a torn triceps. They’ll need him to bounce back because there’s uncertainty all around him.

Quick and Givens are in the mix for the starting jobs, as are Gibson and Alexander. They also have Austin Pettis and Greg Salas, 3^rd and 4^th round picks in 2011 who barely played last year. Finally, they have a reclamation project, Steve Smith, who has struggled mightily with injuries over the last 2 years since his 100 catch year with the Giants in 2009. There’s a lot of mediocre for the Rams and some guys in competition for the starting job might actually end up losing a roster spot because there’s 8 guys for 6 spots. Quick has received a lot of praise this offseason from the coaching staff and might be the #1 option, but he’s just a raw 2^nd round rookie.

One player to watch for is tight end Lance Kendricks. Kendricks was a 2^nd round pick in 2011 and came into the year with high expectations after a strong camp and preseason. However, a combination of inconsistency at quarterback and his own struggles led to a very poor year for him. He caught just 28 passes for 352 yards, didn’t score, and somehow managed to drop 9 passes despite only being targeted 53 times. However, he was just a rookie and could have a bounce back year this year. He’s plenty talented and having a reliable tight end would help Bradford out a lot.

The receiving corps is a major problem still, but they have a lot of guys with potential (Brian Quick, Greg Sales, Austin Pettis, Chris Givens) so if one of them can step up, as well as possibly 2^nd year tight end Lance Kendricks, with the return of Danny Amendola, they won’t be terrible. They have the best quarterback in the division in my opinion and his offensive supporting cast won’t be as bleak this year.

Grade: C

Running Backs

Things are better on the ground, as has always been the case in recent years for the Rams. Steven Jackson is one of the great running backs of his era, with 9093 rushing yards in his career, currently 32^nd all time and another couple solid years would put him in the top-20 all time (Ricky Watters is 20^th with 10643 yards). However, he hasn’t made the playoffs since his rookie year and he has wasted his talent on mediocre Rams team after mediocre Rams team, all while never making a peep and complaining. It’s insane that a back as talented as him could only have topped 8 touchdowns once in his career, but what can you do when your team is never around the goal line.

As talented as he is, the arrow is trending down for Jackson right now. He turns 29 this offseason and has 2138 career carries. He’s right at the point where you start to worry that his abilities are going to fall off a cliff. History suggests that he might be another year or two away, but he’s definitely no sure thing this year. The Rams don’t seem to think so either as they used a 2^nd round pick on a running back named Isaiah Pead to be his potential successor.

As long as Jackson is still running well, Pead will just be a change of pace back and someone to keep Jackson fresh, but, as I said, he might not run well this season. Pead, however, was a reach in the 2^nd round. He’s not well rounded enough to be a feature back. He’s better off being a 3^rd down/change of pace back who also contributes as a return man. If Jackson gets hurt or something and Pead has to carry the load, they could really struggle on the ground, in addition to in the air. However, while things aren’t as good looking at running back as they once were for the Rams, they should still be able to run alright.

Grade: B

Defense

Things are better offensively than defensively. Yes, they allowed 25.4 points per game last year, good for 26^th in the league, but at least it wasn’t last like their offense. They also suffered countless injuries at cornerback and should be much better there this season with guys returning, as well as the offseason acquisition of Cortland Finnegan. That being said, you don’t have the league’s worst points differential (-214) unless you suck on both sides of the ball so things aren’t too great defensively for the Rams.

Defensive line

The defensive line is the Rams’ most talented group, which makes sense because this is a Jeff Fisher coached team and he always loves to have a stacked bunch up front. Chris Long is below average as a run stopper, but he actually leads the league in quarterback pressures over the past 2 years with 115. He graded out with a 16.8, last year, 14^th at his position, but his 30.5 rating as a pass rusher was 4^th at his position. Unfortunately, his -10.5 rating against the run was last.

Opposite him, the Rams will start Robert Quinn, the 14^th overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. Quinn was solid in a situational role last year and will move into the starting lineup now that James Hall is gone. Quinn managed 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures in 341 pass rush snaps last year (10.6%) and some, including ESPN Draft Guru Mel Kiper, expect him to have a 10 sack season this year. That’s definitely possible given his talents and what he showed last year, but he’ll have to improve against the run as his -7.3 rating against the run was 4^th worst at his position.

With Quinn moving into the starting lineup, free agent acquisition William Hayes will play Quinn’s old role. Hayes is coming over from Tennessee and struggled last year with a new Head Coach and defensive coordinator, with a -6.7 rating, but posted a 9.5 rating in 2010 under Jeff Fisher. He’s an excellent fit for their wide 9 scheme and managed 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 326 pass rush snaps in 2010 (9.2%). The Rams managed 39 sacks last year despite always playing from behind and despite having cornerbacks that couldn’t cover. That number could easily go into the 40s this year.

However, the Rams are putting in place a wide 9 scheme, which is fundamentally weak against the run. Long and Quinn are weak against the run to begin with so it’ll be up to the defensive tackles and linebackers to help them stuff the run. The Rams allowed 4.8 YPC last year, 28^th in the league and a good pass rush is only useful when playing with a lead, which they won’t have a lot of this season.

The Rams cut both starters at defensive tackle from last year. Both Justin Bannan and Fred Robbins actually graded out well above average as run stuffers, but combined for 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 427 combined pass rush snaps (3.7%). They were 36 and 34 respectively anyway and though they were starters, they were essentially just situational players as the Rams used a lot of rotation on the defensive line.

They figure to do a lot of the same this year. With Robbins and Bannan going out, Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers are coming in as starters. Langford has spent his entire career in a 3-4 as a defensive end in Miami, but he’s an above average player who had a 1.7 rating last year , a 14.4 rating in 2010, a 15.7 rating in 2009, and a 7.6 rating in 2008 and he figures to be a good fit in a wide 9 4-3 scheme as a defensive tackle. Brockers, meanwhile, was the 14^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He’s still very raw as a pass rusher, but he is strong against the run.

Their top reserves, who will rotate in, are Dorrell Scott, one of their top reserves last season, and Trevor Laws who had a decent year as a rotational player in Philadelphia’s wide 9 scheme last year. Overall, the Rams’ defensive line should have a solid year, especially in rushing the passer. With added talent in the secondary and what should be a slightly improved offense, as well as the addition of Jeff Fisher and Kendall Langford, they should have a sacks total in the mid 40s after 39 last year. However, they should rank among the worst teams in the league against the run again.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Poor linebacker play was also a big part of their poor play against the run last season and it doesn’t look like it’ll be any better this year. Middle linebacker James Laurinaitis is a very good player who has graded out with a 1.7, a 14.2, and a 5.6 in his first 3 seasons in the NFL. He’s totaled 376 tackles in 3 years and has held up very well in coverage. What’s even more impressive is the fact that he’s done this with no help around him at linebacker.

This year will be no different. Chris Chamberlain and Bobby Poppinga are both gone and have been replaced with more mediocre players. Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Rocky McIntosh, and Mario Haggan will all compete for the 2 outside spots. Haggan was a solid backup in Denver last year with some starting experience, but he’s never been anything better than mediocre and he’s now 32. Dunbar, meanwhile, played both inside and outside for the Saints last year and posted a -26.3 rating overall in 807 snaps.

McIntosh might be the most promising of the bunch. He was benched by the Redskins last year, but he was never a good fit for their 3-4 defense. He was a solid starter for them in a 4-3 before they switched to a 3-4 in 2010. He’s still only 29, 30 in November, so he could be an alright starter for them this season. The other two are not nearly as promising.

Meanwhile, they have little depth at middle linebacker so if anything happens to James Laurinaitis, this is easily the worst linebacking corps in the NFL. Their top reserve at middle linebacker is 7^th round rookie Aaron Brown, though I suppose they could use the loser of the outside linebacker competition as their middle linebacker if Laurinaitis goes down.

Grade: C+

Defensive Backs

The Rams had a whopping 10 cornerbacks go on IR last season, but still managed to rank 19^th against the pass with 7.4 YPA. Their strong defensive line had a lot to do with that though, as their cornerbacks didn’t play well. Depth was an issue going into the season behind starters Ron Bartell and Bradley Fletcher. Bartell and Fletcher barely played, with Bartell going down week 1 and Fletcher going down week 4.

Their leaders in snaps played at the position were Justin King, Josh Gordy, and Al Harris. King was absolutely awful as his -22.6 rating ranked dead last among cornerbacks. He allowed 43 completions on 68 attempts (63.2%), 571 yards (8.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, 2 deflections and 6 penalties. Gordy and Harris were slightly better, with Harris actually grading out above average, but he retired this offseason, while Gordy, who posted a -8.9 rating from last season, figures to be no higher than 4^th on the depth chart this year.

This is because the Rams made improving their secondary a focus of their offseason. They signed Cortland Finnegan from the Titans, who rated 3^rd at his position on ProFootballFocus with a 15.8 rating. Fletcher has also returned from injury and will compete to start opposite Finnegan. Fletcher graded out above average with a 1.7 rating in 2010, but is coming off a torn ACL. He’ll compete with Janoris Jenkins, a talented player who only fell to the 2^nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft for character reasons. However, he’s still only a rookie so he could struggle if forced to start. Gordy could provide depth, if he beats out 3^rd round rookie Trumaine Johnson for the #4 cornerback job. Johnson can also play safety, where he might be needed more.

Free safety Quintin Mikell is a solid player who was one of the bright spots on their defense last year after being signed from Philadelphia as a free agent. He graded out with a -2.8, which is well below the 18.1 rating he had in Philadelphia in 2010. Still, he was much better than strong safety Darian Stewart. Stewart’s -15.5 rating was 3^rd worst at his position last year in his 1^st year as a starter. He was actually alright in coverage, but missed 20 tackles, 3^rd most in the league regardless of position. Considering he only had 65 solo tackles, he essentially whiffed on 25% of his tackle attempts. He’ll could be pushed by 3^rd round rookie Trumaine Johnson, who can play cornerback, in addition to safety.

Things aren’t nearly as bleak in the secondary this year as it was last year, with additions and the return of guys from injury. On top of that, they’ve always had a good pass rush and this year should be no different with Chris Long opposite Robert Quinn and William Hayes, who played well under Jeff Fisher in 2010.

They also add Kendall Langford at defensive tackle, to give them more pass rush there. They got next to no pass rush from that spot in 2011. Michael Brockers is raw as a pass rusher, but can stop the run from day 1. One of their safety spots and their two outside linebacker spots are still weaknesses, but this is not a bad defense at all.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Jeff Fisher was out of the league last year after being fired by the Tennessee Titans, but he remains a solid Head Coach. He held out for the right opportunity and was a hot commodity on the open market this offseason, deciding on St. Louis over Miami. He finished with a 142-120 record over 16+ seasons in Tennessee and was the longest tenured Head Coach in the league when he was finally fired. In his 16 full seasons, he’s finished at .500 or above 11 times. He made the playoffs 6 times, finishing 5-6 with one trip to the Super Bowl in 1999.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Rams looked poised for a breakout in 2011 after winning 7 games and nearly the division in 2010, but like so many teams who jump 6+ games in a season, they regressed in 2011. They faced a tough schedule and on top of that had a perfect storm of injuries, most notably in the defensive backfield and on the offensive line.

Young, talented quarterback Sam Bradford struggled behind a poor offensive line and also got hurt himself, predictably, but the line was better in 2010, allowing just 34 sacks. With the addition of Scott Wells this offseason, to go next to Harvey Dahl, an offseason addition after the 2010 season, the Rams already figure to be better on the offensive line, but tackles Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold could bounce back from injury plagued and injury shortened 2011 seasons. If one of them does that, that’s 3 offensive line spots locked down strong.

In the defensive backfield, they return Bradley Fletcher, add one of the league’s top cornerbacks in Cortland Finnegan, and also bring in Janoris Jenkins, a talented player who fell to the 2^nd round for character reasons. They’ve always had a good pass rush and this year should be no different with Chris Long opposite Robert Quinn and William Hayes, who played well under Jeff Fisher in 2010.

Offensively, the receiving corps is a major problem still, but they have a lot of guys with potential so if one of them can step up, as well as possibly 2^nd year tight end Lance Kendricks, with the return of Danny Amendola, that won’t be terrible. They have the best quarterback in the division in my opinion and his offensive supporting cast won’t be as bleak this year. They’ll also be able to run the ball with the duo of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead. I expect them to have their break out year this year, with a more talented bunch, an easier schedule, lower expectations, better health, and a new Head Coach.

They play in an easier division and could win 3 or 4 games in it. Outside of the division, they host the Redskins, Packers, Patriots, Jets, and Vikings. They could beat the Vikings and Jets pretty easily and while Washington figures to be good this year, the Rams were a good home team in 2010 so they could win that one too. On the road outside of the division, they go to Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay. It’s not the toughest overall schedule at all. They can be competitive. With the exception of 2009, every year since 2003 has seen one team have a 7 game swing in either direction. The Rams are my pick to be that team this year.

Projection: 9-7 1st in NFC West

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Offense

In a league full of parity, the Steelers are one of the few teams that have managed to remain good every season. Since drafting Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have won at least 8 games in all 8 seasons, at least 10 games in 6 seasons and at least 12 games in 4 seasons, including a 12-4 record last year. Since 2004, they have an 89-39 record, 2^nd to only the Patriots over that time period.

And it’s not all about Ben Roethlisberger. Sure, Roethlisberger is one of the game’s elite quarterbacks, but the Steelers have had one of the three best defenses, in terms of points per game allowed, 6 times since 2004. Not so coincidentally, those were the same 6 seasons they had 10+ wins. Last year was no different as they had the league’s best scoring defense (14.2 points per game) and the league’s best yardage defense (4348 yards). Even more amazing is that they did this despite a mere 15 takeaways, actually fewest in the league. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

The Steelers have a reputation for being old, but they do have a lot of young talent thanks to consistently strong drafting over the past few years. Yes, veterans like Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Brett Keisel, etc, are over the hill in football years, but they also have talented young players like Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons. Last year’s draft looks equally strong. On paper, it appears they got 2 starting offensive linemen in David DeCastro and Mike Adams in the first two rounds and 3^rd and 4^th round picks Sean Spence and Alameda Ta’amu could have immediate impacts defensively as rookies.

The two offensive linemen were significant because Ben Roethlisberger has taken 314 sacks in his 8 year career, despite being very mobile and having strong pocket awareness. With DeCastro and Adams adding to an already improving offensive line with 2011 2^nd round pick Marcus Gilbert and 2010 1^st round pick Maurkice Pouncey, Big Ben might have the most talented offensive line he’s ever had in front of him. With what should be yet another strong defensive group, the Steelers look poised to have another great season in a weak AFC.

Quarterback

Only 6 current NFL quarterbacks have won Super Bowls as starters: Tom Brady (3), Eli Manning (2), Ben Roethlisberger (2), Peyton Manning (1), Drew Brees (1), and Aaron Rodgers (1). Not so coincidentally those might be the top 6 quarterbacks in the NFL, in any order. However, Roethlisberger is often mentioned close to the bottom of that 6 because of how good Pittsburgh’s defense has always been. Nonetheless, he is one of the game’s best quarterbacks.

He ranks 4^th all-time in regular season winning percentage, .709 (80-33), behind only Tom Brady, Roger Staubach, and Joe Montana. He also has a 10-4 postseason record. At only 30 years of age, he ranks 4^th among active quarterbacks in regular season wins behind only Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees (assuming you don’t count Kerry Collins and Donovan McNabb as active). He has completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA and 165 touchdowns to 100 interceptions. Possibly most impressive is how he’s been able to do this despite poor offensive line play in front of him.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

I’ve already mentioned the additions of David DeCastro and Mike Adams through the draft. They’ll likely start at right guard and left tackle respectively. DeCastro is arguably the top interior line prospect of the last decade. He fell to the Steelers at 24 because he doesn’t play a position with high positional value, but he should be one of the best players at his position from the word go and remain as such for the next decade.

Meanwhile, Adams has elite talent (he was the #2 offensive tackle of his recruiting class between Tyron Smith and Matt Kalil, two top-10 picks), but fell to the Steelers in the 2^nd round for character reasons. He was a disappointment in his time at Ohio State, was oft suspended, and failed a drug test at The Combine, where he reportedly didn’t interview well. The Steelers rarely draft guys with character issues so maybe they know something we don’t.

Adams will start opposite Marcus Gilbert, whether that be at left tackle or right tackle. He is currently penciled in as the left tackle because that’s his natural spot and Gilbert played well at right tackle. Gilbert is the more experienced one so they may swap sides in Training Camp if the Steelers feel it necessary.

Gilbert was a 2^nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and played alright in 14 starts at right tackle last year. He allowed 8 sacks and was below average on ProFootballFocus as a run blocker, but he graded out above average as a pass blocker. This is because the mere 2 quarterback hits and 11 quarterback pressures he allowed are a more accurate representation of how he protected Ben Roethlisberger. He also committed 6 penalties. He had a moderate -4.2 rating overall and could be better in his 2^nd season.

If either one of those players struggle, the Steelers may call up Max Starks. Starks is an experienced player who knows the system. He started 12 games for them at left tackle last year after the Steelers signed him in October. He was previously unsigned because of weight and durability questions, but he played pretty well. He had a -2.2 rating with 5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures allowed. He was penalized 5 times. He’s once again unsigned because he tore his ACL in January, but the Steelers are monitoring his progress closely and may view him as an insurance option.

Another insurance option could be Willie Colon. Colon has experience at right tackle, but will play left guard this season. With a 25.1 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd best offensive tackle in 2009. However, he has only played 1 game over the last 2 seasons thanks to various injuries. If he gets hurt again, the Steelers will turn to Ramon Foster. Foster actually led the team in snaps played on the offensive line with 1005 snaps played and had an average 0.6 rating. He’s not a bad insurance option.

Meanwhile, center Maurkice Pouncey is an overrated player who has made Pro Bowls in each of his 1^st two seasons in the league. That being said, he’s still a solid starter who has posted solid ratings (-4.2 and -1.2 respectively) in 2010 and 2011. With the additions of DeCastro and Adams, and the return of Colon, the Steelers should be much improved up front. They are only returning 2 offensive linemen from a miserable offensive line in 2011 and those two, Pouncey and Gilbert, are young players who upside who played pretty well last year.

Bums like Chris Kemoeatu (-14.1), Doug Legursky (-11.5), Jonathan Scott (-18.3), and Trai Essex (-11.9) are either not on the team anymore or buried on the depth chart. This could easily be the best offensive line they’ve ever had in front of Roethlisberger. For a quarterback who is sacked and injured as often as Roethlisberger, that has to be music to his ears. Unlike in previous years, he might be able to make it through the season without getting hurt, missing time or being limited, and he should have more time in the pocket, should he choose to use it.

Grade: B

Running Backs

An improved offensive line will also help their running game. Yes, the Steelers have lost Rashard Mendenhall to a torn ACL, but they may have an even better running back waiting in the wings in Isaac Redman. Mendenhall is an overrated player so his torn ACL may be a blessing in disguise for them. Mendenhall has a career 4.1 YPC, while Redman has an average of 4.5 YPC.

With Mendenhall out last year for most of week 17 and all of their playoff loss to the Broncos, Redman had 92 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and 121 yards on 17 carries. Those 121 yards would have been the 2^nd most yards Mendenhall had all season and the 7.1 YPC he averaged in that game would have been Mendenhall’s highest total since week 3 of the 2010 season. On top of that, the 213 combined yards rushing he had in those 2 games would have been the most productive back-to-back two game stretch since weeks 3-4 of 2010 for Mendenhall.

Redman is also the more well rounded back. Despite less playing time, he matched the 18 catches that Mendenhall had in 2011. He also was more trusted by the coaching staff to pass protect, despite his backup status, with 94 pass protection snaps to 42 for Mendenhall. As you can expect, ProFootballFocus did grade him as the superior pass protector.

They also graded him as the superior runner and player overall (playoffs included), despite his backup status and the fact that he played fewer snaps. This makes sense as Redman averaged 3.3 yards after contact as opposed to 2.5 for Mendenhall, averaged 4.7 YPC to 4.1 YPC, and broke 25 tackles on 127 carries (19.7%) as opposed to 30 broken tackles on 228 carries (13.2%) for Mendenhall.

The Steelers were already starting to take notice of Redman’s talent last year, giving him 91 carries to Mendenhall’s 220 even before week 17. Redman also played 318 snaps to Mendenhall’s 457, as he played more as a blocker and receiver out of the backfield (which goes back to my point that Redman is more well rounded).

Mendenhall is expected to miss at least the first 6 games of the season as he’s expected to start the season on the PUP, but Redman is the more talented back and might not give Mendenhall, a free agent after the season, his starting job back even when Mendenhall returns from injury. There’s serious fantasy upside with Redman and major upside for the Steelers’ running game with a more talented back behind a better offensive line. Depth is the one major issue as they currently only have Jonathan Dwyer, John Clay, and Chris Rainey behind Redman, three unproven players. However, when Mendenhall returns, he’ll provide adequate depth.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Steelers also have a lot of talent at wide receiver and, unlike at running back, that is currently obvious to anyone who knows anything about football. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown both had 1000 yard seasons last year and both are still young, a testament to how well the Steelers have drafted in the past few years. Contrary to popular belief, they have plenty of young talent.

Wallace, a 2009 3^rd round pick, caught 72 passes for 1193 yards and 8 touchdowns last year, his 2^nd straight 1000 yard season. He’s definitely a proven player, but the one concern with him is that he holds out deep into Training Camp and gets out of shape. He has yet to sign his restricted free agent tender as of this writing and doesn’t appear to have any plans to do so.

Brown, meanwhile, caught 69 passes for 1108 yards and 2 touchdowns last year. The 2010 6^th round pick remains a one year wonder, but my only concern with him is the mere 2 touchdowns he had last year. That number should increase in 2012 as the combo of Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Jerricho Cotchery/Mewelde Moore/David Johnson/Weslye Saunders won’t vulture 9 touchdowns again.

The Steelers also possess solid depth behind the starters. Hines Ward is gone, but he was a shadow of his former self last year before retiring this offseason. Many predicted Emmanuel Sanders to have the kind of breakout year that Brown did in 2011, before Brown had an amazing Preseason. Sanders was a 3^rd round pick the same year Brown was a 6^th round pick, 2010, and he is a talented player who has had issues with injuries. If he can stay healthy, he could have a career high across the board as the Steelers’ primary slot receiver. His current career highs are 28 catches for 376 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2010. He also caught 22 passes for 288 yards and 2 scores last year.

Behind their 3 young receivers is the veteran Jerricho Cotchery. Cotchery caught 82 passes for 1130 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2007 for the Jets and was a starter as recently as 2009. He’s only 30 and caught 16 passes for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns in a situational role last year. He seems fine with a limited role, despite his past success, and is one of the better #4 receivers in the league.

The Steelers also have a solid pass catching tight end in Heath Miller. Miller is never mentioned among the best at his position, but he’s certainly one of the most consistent. He’s caught at least 42 passes for 512 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of the last 5 years, maxing out with 76 catches for 789 yards and 6 scores in 2009. He’s also one of the league’s best blockers and can play on every down. In fact, only Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jason Witten played more snaps than Miller did in the regular season last year, with 1032 and his all around game got him ranked 5^th among tight ends on ProFootballFocus with a 13.0 rating, behind Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, and Aaron Hernandez.

New offensive coordinator Todd Haley likes to use a lot of two tight end sets so he brought over his boy toy Leonard Pope from Kansas City. Haley and Pope worked together in Arizona and Kansas City before Pittsburgh so they’re obviously very comfortable with each other. Pope is a solid blocker who doesn’t offer much as a receiver.

Still, overall, the Steelers have an elite quarterback throwing to an incredibly talented group of receivers and working behind arguably the best offensive line of his career. Isaac Redman has breakout star written all over him behind an improved run blocking offensive line so the Steelers look to have one of the best and most well balanced offenses in the league. They averaged a mere 20.3 points per game last year, 21^st in the league, but if you don’t include the 4 games that Roethlisberger was out or limited with an ankle injury, they averaged 22.3 points per game, which would have ranked 17^th. They should be improved on even that this year and could be a top-15 or even top-10 offense. They certainly have the talent. That will be an excellent compliment for their amazing defense. They look poised to improve on the +98 points differential they had in 2012, good for 7^th in the league.

Grade: A-

Defense

As I’ve already mentioned, the Steelers have ranked in the top 3 in fewest points allowed 6 times in the past 8 years. That’s insane. Dick LeBeau and company really know how to field an awesome defense. After ranking 1^st in the league last year in both points and yards, they look poised to have a 7^th in 9 years in 2012, especially since they accomplished that last year despite the fewest turnovers in the league and despite several key injuries (I’ll get into those later).

Defensive Line

Casey Hampton is a key injury, but he wasn’t what I was referring to. Hampton got hurt late in the season, tearing his ACL in their playoff loss to the Steelers. He looks poised to start the year on the PUP and miss at least 6 games. He’s a solid player, but his absence isn’t enough for me not to consider them a top-3 defense. He only played 450 snaps last year as the soon to be 35 year old is really just a situational run stopper at this point in his career. He had a 4.5 rating last year.

Top backup Steve McClendon, who actually had a higher rating in less playing time (7.8), will split time with 4^th round rookie Alameda Ta’amu. Ta’amu is more of a true nose tackle like Hampton at 350 pounds, while the 280 pound McClendon is a situational player. They should be able to hold down the fort just fine. They’re probably the future at the position as well.

Outside at defensive end in their 3-4, the Steelers used a rotation of 3 guys in 2011, with Aaron Smith missing most of the year with injuries. Those players were Ziggy Hood, Brett Keisel, and Cameron Heyward. Smith was cut this offseason, but they won’t miss him much. Injuries limited him to just 175 snaps in 2012. Keisel was easily the best of the bunch in 2011. In fact, he was one of the best in all of the league with a 26.8 rating, good for 5^th in the league.

That’s why Keisel was retained heading into his age 34 season and not part of a veteran purge. Still, as he’s an aging veteran, Keisel should see less playing time in 2012, in favor of more playing time for 2011 1^st round pick Cameron Heyward. Heyward was pretty nondescript in limited playing time in 2011, but he has plenty of upside. The 3^rd member of the group was Ziggy Hood. Hood played the most out of the 3 with 879 snaps, but that might not be the case in 2012 if he continues to play like he did in 2011.

Hood, a 2009 1^st round pick, was the worst in the league at his position with a -21.4 rating. He was especially bad as a pass rusher, managing just 1 sack, 4 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures on 522 pass rush snaps, for a pathetic 2.9% rate. However, Hood spent the offseason getting into shape, losing 18 pounds of fat, gaining 20 pounds of muscle and dropping his body fat from 24% to 18%. That could translate to him having a breakout season. At the same time, it wouldn’t shock me if he also ceded some playing time to Heyward. With Keisel unlikely to remain with the team after the season, this is a make or break team for Hood because the Steelers could use another early pick on a defensive end in the 2013 draft and make Hood a rotational player if he doesn’t prove himself heading into his 5^th NFL season.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The linebacking corps were where the major injuries were last season. Normally, they have an elite group there, but last year that was not the case. James Harrison missed 5 games with injury, LaMarr Woodley missed 6 entire games and most of another, and James Farrior missed 2 games. With their two starting rush linebackers missing large parts of the season, stud middle linebacker Lawrence Timmons had to play out of position outside and that threw him off. With Timmons playing a lot outside and Farrior missing time, Larry Foote had to play more than they would have liked, playing 437 snaps at middle linebacker. Top reserve Jason Worilds also had to play more than they would have liked.

Timmons was the NFL’s best middle linebacker in 2010 according to ProFootballFocus, with a 31.6 rating, but struggled in 2011 with a -4.2 rating overall. That was largely because of a -9.4 rating as a pass rusher. He really struggled to get to the quarterback from the outside. As a middle linebacker, he actually had a 3.8 rating when he did play there. He should continue to be one of the best middle linebackers in the league in 2012 and beyond.

LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison are also normally among the best at their positions. In 2011, they ranked 2^nd and 5^th respectively with a 41.8 rating and a 29.8 rating respectively. Both were slowed by injuries, but still played pretty well with a 27.8 rating and a 10.2 rating respectively. Woodley should bounce back in 2011, but the concern with Harrison is that he’s 34. He’s an amazing football player and athlete so I’ll believe he’ll continue to beat the odds and age until he proves he can’t.

Their top reserve at this position is Jason Worilds. The 2010 2^nd round pick played a lot in the absence of Woodley and Harrison and played well. He had 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 208 pass rush snaps (14.4%). If Harrison starts to decline, he could see an increase in snaps. They should feel confident in him.

Their 4^th starting linebacker is Larry Foote. Foote will start in place of James Farrior, a 37 year old veteran cut by the Steelers this offseason. Farrior was a shell of his former self last year anyway with a -6.5 rating. Foote wasn’t much better though. The 32 year old had a -6.0 rating last year and the veteran probably won’t be any better this season. 3^rd round rookie Sean Spence could come in on passing downs for Foote and maybe even a bigger role as the season goes on if Foote struggles. Still, with Woodley, Harrison, and Timmons, this is one of the league’s best linebacking corps.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

The Steelers’ had the league’s best pass defense last year, both in terms of yards (2751) and YPA (5.6). They, of course, did this in spite of minimal takeaways, but also in spite of an uncharacteristic 35 sacks. They should have more this season and could rank near the top against the pass again, in spite of what the 300 yards they allowed to Tim Tebow in the playoffs would suggest (their only 300 yard game allowed all season).

Ike Taylor was awful in that playoff loss to Denver, surrendering 204 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts and 4 completions. He was also penalized twice in that game. However, he was much better in the regular season. He had the league’s 3^rd best QB rating allowed among cornerbacks who played 75% of their team’s snaps, a 54.8 rating. He allowed just 40 completions on 96 attempts (41.7%) for 455 yards (4.7 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The only problem was his 9 penalties.

Troy Polamalu was ProFootballFocus’ #1 safety in 2011 with a 19.2 rating. He really is the key to their defense. They’re noticeably worse when he’s not out there. Next to him is Ryan Clark. Clark is another fine safety and he was missed in their loss to Denver as he had to sit out because of a blood disorder that makes it unsafe for him to play at high altitudes. The only issue with these two players is age as they are heading into their age 31 and 33 seasons respectively. However, Polamalu is still young enough that it wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect another excellent season from him and that’s really the key.

The 4^th member of their starting defensive backs is still yet to be determined, that being their #2 cornerback opposite Taylor. 3 players, Keenan Lewis, Curtis Brown, and Cortez Allen are competing for that spot with William Gay signing in Arizona. Gay was a decent player, but not irreplaceable. Lewis, a 2009 3^rd round pick, is currently the favorite and he’s reportedly having a strong offseason. Brown and Allen were 3^rd and 4^th round picks respectively in the 2011 NFL Draft and are not as experienced as Lewis, who was their #3 cornerback last year. He played 404 snaps last year and was alright so he could be a solid starter next year, especially with an improved front 7. Brown and Allen will be left as depth cornerbacks and I think you can do a lot worse than those two.

All in all, I think the Steelers are poised to have another top-3 scoring defense. They had the league’s best scoring defense last year and it’s scary to think how much better they could have been had they gotten just a few more than the 15 takeaways they had last year and if they had everyone was healthy. Their defense could resemble that this year. Takeaways and giveaways are fairly unpredictable on a yearly basis and the last 38 teams with fewer than 20 had 7.53 more takeaways the next season (and won 1.41 more games).

Given how talented this defense is, I wouldn’t be surprised if they exceeded even that and got around 30 takeaways. They had 35 in 2010. Their age is overstated. Yes, they lost veterans like James Farrior, Aaron Smith, and William Gay, but none of them had much of a positive impact last year. Yes, Casey Hampton could miss time with injury, but the same thing goes for him. Yes, Brett Keisel and James Harrison are getting up there in age, but they’re also coming off amazing seasons so they should be able to keep it up. Yes, Polamalu and Clark are over the hill in football years, but they’re not that old yet, especially not Polamalu, the more important one. They have plenty of young talent and plenty of talent overall defensively.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

It’s possible to be a lifelong Steelers fan 40 years or younger and not know what’s it’s like to have their team’s Head Coach on the hot seat. Chuck Noll coached successfully from 1969 to 1991, going 193-148 and winning 4 Super Bowls and when he retired, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Kansas City by the name of Bill Cowher. Cowher coached from 1992 to 2006, going 149-90 and winning a Super Bowl and when he retired in 2006, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Minnesota by the name of Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has gone 55-25 since and won the organization’s 6^th Super Bowl title (most all time).

It’s tough to compare anyone to Cowher and Noll, but Tomlin can be mentioned in the same sentence with those two in a favorable way. He’s one of the league’s premier Head Coaches and possibly the most exciting part for Steelers fans is that he only just turned 40. It could be another decade plus before the Steelers have to worry about the Head Coaching position. On top of that, they also have one of the league’s best coordinators in Dick LeBeau, who coordinates the defense. The 74 year old has been there since 2004 and has 2 Super Bowl rings in that time.

Grade: A

Overall

The Steelers keep cranking out good draft after good draft and even though they have some aging players, they have plenty of talented young players to make up for it. Offensively, they have an elite quarterback throwing to a great group of receivers, playing behind arguably the best offensive line of his career and a budding star at running back set to run behind an improved run blocking offensive line. Defensively, they are coming off a season in which they led the league in fewest points per game allowed, despite a mere 15 takeaways and injuries to key players.

They are one of the league’s most consistent franchises and still a model to young teams around the league. They have six 10+ win seasons in 8 years and four 12+ win seasons in that same time period. In a weak AFC, they seem poised to have another very strong season. Baltimore took some hits this offseason so while the Steelers didn’t win the division last year, the 12 wins they had last year should win the division this year and should be replicable.

Both Baltimore and Cincinnati could be inferior this season and Cleveland still isn’t very good so they could have another 4-2 or better record in the division. 5-1 is also a possibility. Outside the division, they host the Jets, Eagles, Redskins, Chiefs, and Chargers. The Eagles could be tough, but they should go 4-1 in those games since they’re all at home. They then go to Denver, Oakland, Tennessee, the Giants, and Dallas. That seems like about 4-1 or so. They’re better than all of those teams on paper I think, but you never know what can happen, especially when you go on the road. 12-4 seems right.

Update: Moving Pittsburgh down just a game. David DeCastro probably won’t play this season after tearing his MCL and left tackle Mike Adams has really struggled this preseason. Isaac Redman is also hurt and Rashard Mendenhall still will miss at least 3-4 games. Mike Wallace held out throughout most of the offseason and on the defensive side of the ball, Jason Worilds, James Harrison, and Brett Kiesel are all dealing with injuries. I still like them, but I’m moving them down.

Projection: 11-5 1^st in AFC North

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Baltimore Ravens 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Ravens

Offense

Joe Flacco and the Ravens finally got over the hump last year. Flacco beat Ben Roethlisberger head-to-head twice, something he had never done once in his career prior. The Ravens won the division with a record of 12-4 and outlasted the Steelers in the playoffs. However, a missed chip shot field goal by kicker Billy Cundiff cost the Ravens a chance at sending the AFC Championship matchup with the Patriots to overtime. The Patriots have gotten the AFC’s top seed in back-to-back seasons and made the Super Bowl out of the AFC last year. Having gotten over the hump that was the Steelers, the Ravens now have another hump to get over.

For as good as their 12-4 record was last year, the Ravens really lacked consistency and really played poorly at times. Joe Flacco actually had arguably the worst season of his career, as his 57.6% completion percentage and 6.7 YPA were career lows and his 20-12 TD:INT ratio was his worst since his rookie year in 2008. His 80.9 QB rating was also his worst since 2008.

As a team, meanwhile, the Ravens lost by double digits to an average Tennessee team, lost to a terrible Jacksonville team, needed a big comeback to beat a then terrible Cardinals team in Baltimore, and lost to non-playoff teams in San Diego and Seattle. As impressive as their 7-1 record against playoff teams (including playoffs) was, the Ravens really seemed to play down to the level of their competition and followed up strong showings with terrible ones. And while they had a pristine 9-0 record at home (including playoffs), they went just 4-5 on the road.

Quarterback

Heading into his 5^th season, Flacco is really facing a make or break year. Yes, he got over the Pittsburgh hump last year, but he wasn’t that impressive in doing it and statistically he was pretty average all year. He’s always been a winner, but he’s always had a lot of help. This offseason he proclaimed himself the best quarterback in the NFL and demanded top-5 quarterback money from the Ravens in contract talks, which they pretty much laughed at.

With a weakened supporting cast, particularly on defense due to age and injury, Flacco will have more pressure on him than ever before. If he can thrive in the face of it, he’ll get himself a large contract this offseason and be considered one of the game’s elites. If not, he’ll be lucky to get Alex Smith money as he’ll remain just an average quarterback and a game manager who can’t do it without a strong supporting cast.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Ray Rice is arguably the best running back in the game with Adrian Peterson’s future still up in the air after a torn ACL. Last year, the Ravens let touchdown vulture Willis McGahee go and Rice officially became an every down back and he had an amazing season, rushing for 1364 yards and 12 touchdowns on 291 carries and catching another 76 balls for 704 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The only issue with Rice is that he has yet to sign his franchise tender. He reportedly wants to be paid like Adrian Peterson, which I’m not even sure Adrian Peterson deserves. Rice lacks any real leverage as he can’t sign a long term deal after July 16^th, but if he holds out deep into Training Camp he risks becoming out of shape like Chris Johnson was last year. It’s certainly a situation to monitor, but I’m not too worried.

Hopefully offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will remember to give Rice the ball this year. After a pathetically coached loss to the Seahawks, in which star running back Rice carried the ball a mere 5 times, Rice complained to the coaching staff and received 20+ carries in 8 of the team’s final 9 games, including playoffs. He rushed 195 times for 932 yards (4.8 YPC) and 6 touchdowns, while catching 35 passes for 265 yards and another score. Over 16 games, that’s 1657 yards and 11 touchdowns on 347 carries with 62 catches for 471 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Behind Rice, the Ravens have two running backs competing for the #2 job. Bernard Pierce was a 3^rd round pick of the Ravens this past April, which suggested that he’d be the primary backup. However, he reportedly hasn’t been impressive in practice thus far while Anthony Allen, a 2011 7^th round pick, has been. Allen carried the ball 3 times last year. Whoever wins that job will be a pure backup to Rice like Ricky Williams was last year. He’ll spell Rice for a few carries per game and take over if Rice gets hurt, which rarely happens. In 3 years as a lead back, Rice has never missed a game.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers

It’s good that Joe Flacco has Ray Rice to lean on in the passing game because he doesn’t have a lot of receiving talent. That’s part of the reason why I say he’ll have to carry this team this year. All of Flacco’s receivers are either unproven and inexperienced or washed up. Torrey Smith is a receiver of the 1^st variety. The speedster had a strong rookie year last year with 50 catches for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns after being a 2nd round pick in 2011, despite playing the entire season with a hernia injury. In his last 7 games he was even better, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns.

There’s definitely 1000 yard potential for Smith, but potential is a key word. The 2^nd year receiver has never been a #1 receiver yet and may not live up to his potential. At the same time, there’s definitely good upside with him (think Mike Wallace’s 2^nd season with the Steelers) so he’s a name to know, especially in the mid rounds of fantasy football drafts.

If Torrey Smith has the potential to have a 2010 Mike Wallace type season then Anquan Boldin has the potential to have a 2010 Hines Ward type season. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Boldin caught 57 passes for 887 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, but he’s 32 in October and has declined noticeably every season since 2008 (when he was 28). That’s definitely not uncommon for receivers. In Boldin’s last 5 games in 2011, he caught 14 balls for 236 yards and a score, good for 45 catches for 762 yards and 3 touchdowns over 16 games.

The Ravens lacked any proven depth behind the starters so they signed veteran Jacoby Jones. Jones was surprisingly signed to a 6.5 million dollar deal over 2 years despite being released by the Texans at a salary of 3 million just a week or so prior. Jones always had great promise in Houston, but never lived up to it. His career highs are 51 catches, 562 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He could never beat out the mediocre Kevin Walter for a starting job and never produced in what was a strong passing offense. He’ll be the #3 receiver, but not a very good one. He was only signed because after him on the depth chart, the other receivers have a combined 4 career catches.

At tight end, the Ravens have a pair of 3^rd year players. They drafted Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds respectively in 2010, trying to do a similar thing to what New England did with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the same draft, but it hasn’t worked out nearly as well. They combined for 94 catches, 933 yards, and 8 touchdowns last year. Those would be great numbers if they were one player, but they played a combined 1539 snaps. Dickson ranked 8^th at his position with 968 snaps. They just use a lot of two-tight end sets, but never very effectively. Neither tight end is a good blocker either.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

Last year, the Ravens’ offensive line only gave up 33 sacks, after allowing 40 sacks the year before. However, they were stabilized by Bryant McKinnie at left tackle, a player who is no sure thing going forward because of his age (33 in September) and his much publicized battle with weight issues. If McKinnie can’t play at a high level, Michael Oher would have to play on the left side, where he’s never played well as a pro (despite being the star of the “Blindside” novel). That would leave the unproven Jah Reid, a 2011 3^rd round pick, to start at right tackle.

The Ravens also lost Ben Grubbs, one of the league’s best guards, in free agency. Grubbs was ProFootballFocus’ 12^th rated guard last year, with a 7.3 rating. He allowed 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 6 quarterback pressures, and committed 2 penalties, while also grading out above average as a run blocker. In 2010, Grubbs was even better ranking 9^th. 2010 was his last full season as he missed some time with injuries in 2011. Nonetheless, he’ll be missed.

To replace him, the Ravens used a 2^nd round pick on Kelechi Osemele. Osemele will likely wait in the wings in his first year as a pro as Bobbie Williams is currently the favorite to start in Grubbs’ old spot, left guard. Williams was unsigned into June because he was coming off a leg injury and because he turns 36 in September. However, the Ravens signed him to a 2 year deal and made him their starter. He played alright last year before getting hurt, with a 1.9 rating in 9 games, but you have to question if he can be effective into the future.

I’ve already mentioned Bryant McKinnie, he surprisingly played pretty well last year, despite being cut after the lockout by the Vikings for weight related concerns. McKinnie allowed 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties. He had a -7.6 rating because he sucked as a run blocker, but he was still a solid pass protector. Because of weight and age issues, that could very well not be the case this season.

Opposite him, the Ravens have Michael Oher. I mentioned that Oher has never played well on the blindside in his NFL career. Well, last year he didn’t even play well on the right side. He allowed 10 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, 43 quarterback pressures and committed 10 penalties, while also struggling some as a run blocker. He managed a -18.4 rating. Oher was much better as a rookie in 2009, after being a 1^st round pick. He had an 11.8 rating as he played primarily at right tackle. In 2010, he was disastrous on the left side with a -18.9 rating. Though he was expected to bounce back in 2011 back at right tackle, he did not. He could bounce back this year, but it’s fair to question if he’ll ever live up to the hype that his strong rookie year created.

At center and right guard are the Ravens’ two most entrenched offensive linemen. Marshal Yanda is one of the best guards in the league. In fact, the reason they didn’t have the money to resign Grubbs was because they gave Yanda a well deserved contract the year before. That appears to have been the right move. Yanda was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked guard with a 25.3 rating. He allowed just 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures in 18 games, with just 3 penalties and a strong rating as a run blocker. He can also play right tackle, but they’re best off using their best offensive lineman at his best position.

Meanwhile, center Matt Birk is almost equally as good. He rated 12^th among centers with a 5.1 rating, allowing 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 9 quarterback pressures, with 4 penalties and a solid rating as a run blocker. The NFL’s Man of the Year in 2010 turns 36 in July, but centers can be pretty effective into their mid to late 30s. The Ravens used a 4^th round pick on a potential successor in Gino Gradkowski. They hopefully won’t have to use him much this year. The Ravens need another strong season from Birk because, aside from Yanda, things are pretty questionable around him. They’ll probably look more like the 2010 version of this offensive line than the 2011 version in terms of level of play.

With a below average receiving corps and a below average offensive line, the pressure will be on Flacco to lead this offense, even with Ray Rice to lean on. They averaged 23.6 points per game last year, good for 12^th in the league, but their passing offense was a mere 22^nd with 6.7 YPA. It’s a passing league and with what should be an inferior defense, the Ravens will have to pass more to keep up with their opponents. That pressure will fall on Joe Flacco, a below average receiving corps, and a below average offensive line. If they can’t at least match the 12^th ranked offense they had last year, they’ll have a lot of trouble competing with an improved Steelers team in the AFC North.

Grade: B-

Defense

With a pretty average offense, the defense was what really carried this team to 12 wins and a +112 points differential. They ranked 3^rd in the league in fewest points allowed, behind only Pittsburgh and San Francisco. However, things may not be as good this year. Terrell Suggs, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, is likely out for the season after tearing his Achilles. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are entering their age 37 and 34 seasons respectively. They also lost key members of their front 7 in free agency, including Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding.

Defensive Line

The Ravens use a lot of rotation up front because they essentially use a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defensive scheme. On their 3 man defensive line, Terrence Cody is the nose tackle. The massive 2010 2^nd round pick is solid against the run, but offers absolutely nothing as a pass rusher. On 230 pass rush snaps, he didn’t sack or hit the quarterback once and only provided 4 pressures for a pathetic 1.7% rate.

On one side of Cody is Haloti Ngata. With Suggs out and Lewis and Reed aging, Ngata might be the new face of their defense. He had a 19.8 rating last year in what was actually a down year for him. He had a 27.8 rating the year before. He’s 340 pounds and plays the run like it, but he’s also got great movement skills for someone of his size. On 528 pass rush snaps, he had 5 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures (5.7%).

The opposite defensive end was Cory Redding last year. Redding was a great run stuffer who graded out with a 14.2 rating overall. In his absence, Arthur Jones and Pernell McPhee should see more playing time at the position. Jones is an unproven 2010 5^th round pick, while McPhee played very well in limited action last year. Playing primarily as a nickel defensive tackle in a 4-3, McPhee only played 389 snaps, but rushed the passer on 325 of them, managing 7 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures (10.5%). His high pass rush rate, especially for his position, earned him a 19.4 rating overall. Becoming more of an every down lineman might have a negative effect on his game, but it could also be what springs him to the next level as a football player.

Along with McPhee on their 4 man line in a 4-3 is Haloti Ngata, who rarely leaves the field, as well as Paul Kruger and probably Courtney Upshaw. Kruger also played well in limited action last year, with 7 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures on 258 pass rush snaps (11.2%). Like McPhee, he should have more of an every down role this season in place of missing front 7 players and, like McPhee, that could either have a negative effect or spring him to the next level as a football player.

Upshaw, meanwhile, is a 2^nd round rookie who figures to play Terrell Suggs’ old role in a 4-3. Upshaw is a talented player and was a steal atop the 2^nd round, but he’ll be playing probably more than they’re comfortable with. They’ll likely be hoping guys like Sergio Kindle and Arthur Jones can step up. Jones, as I’ve mentioned, is an unproven 2010 5^th round pick, while Kindle was a 2^nd round pick in 2010. Kindle has barely played in 2 seasons after suffering a nasty head injury off the field shortly after being drafted. He’s in a make or break season and the Ravens may once again not get anything from him.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Like on the defensive line, the Ravens do use quite a bit of rotation in their linebacking corps. Ray Lewis is obviously an every down mainstay. He had a 25.1 rating last year and while he’s 37 now, he should still be a fine player. Jameel McClain is a great two-down run stuffer who plays both inside and out depending on the scheme. He’s pretty bad in coverage though, but managed a 4.6 rating overall.

With Jarret Johnson gone, the Ravens will need either Brendon Ayanbadejo or Dannell Ellerbe to step up. Those were their top two reserves last year in terms of snaps played. Ayanbadejo is a solid 3^rd down linebacker who can blitz and cover, while Ellerbe is a 2009 undrafted free agent who has played limited snaps so far in his career.

In a 3-4, Courtney Upshaw and Paul Kruger should get the bulk of the snaps on the edge because those are their two best pass rushers with Suggs out. Ayanbadejo could also be in the mix here as he has some edge rush ability. This is another area where Kindle could also help out, if they can ever get anything out of him. Lewis and McClain will line up inside.

With Cory Redding and Jarret Johnson gone, as well as one of their top reserves Brandon McKinney, and Suggs out, the Ravens are thin in the front 7 this year. They have rotational players who should be able to step up into full time roles, but they’re still unproven (Upshaw, Kruger, McPhee) and they also need guys like Jones, Ayanbadejo, and possibly Kindle to step up in rotational roles. On top of all this, Ray Lewis is now 37.

They had 48 sacks last year, good for 3^rd most in the league, but without Suggs that number is bound to go down. Upshaw, Kruger, and McPhee, however are good pass rushers so they could still have a solid total. However, they ranked tied for 1^st in the league with 3.5 YPC allowed and with key run stuffers like Redding and Johnson gone and Lewis aging, they should be farther down on that list this year. Neither Kruger nor McPhee are good against the run.

Grade: B

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Secondary

Guys like Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs get most of the hype on Baltimore’s defense, but Lardarius Webb might be their best defensive player, at least last year. Webb, easily one of the league’s most underrated players, had a 20.1 rating according to ProFootballFocus, 2^nd only to Darrelle Revis among cornerbacks and his 19.0 coverage rating led all players at all positions (Revis was better than him against the run).

Including playoffs, he was the only cornerback to play more than 75% of his teams snaps and not allow a touchdown. He also had 8 interceptions. Given that, it’s no surprise that he led all cornerbacks who played 75% of their team’s snaps in QB rating allowed with a QB rating allowed of 42.0, more than 20 points lower than the man in 2^nd place (Johnathan Joseph: 64.4). He allowed 56 completions on 102 attempts (54.9%) for 656 yards (6.4 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He also deflected 12 passes and committed 5 penalties.

He signed a big time extension this offseason as a restricted free agent, but before that there was some speculation that a team like New England could surrender their 1^st round pick and sign him to an offer sheet. The Ravens have to be glad to have him back. In 2010, when he was hurt they really missed him and he was a big part of their 3^rd ranked pass defense in 2011 (6.4 YPA). Barring further injury, the 26 year old (27 in November) should remain one of the league’s best shutdown cornerbacks for several years and prove to be well worth his 6 year, 52.74 million dollar contract.

Opposite him, the Ravens started Cary Williams last year. Williams was an inexperienced 2008 7^th round pick prior to last year, but he started all 16 games and had a decent -1.2 rating. Still, he could be upgraded so the Ravens are hoping that 2011 1^st round pick Jimmy Smith can step up and take the job. Smith actually outplayed Williams last year with a 6.7 rating on 337 snaps and he definitely has more upside than the marginal Williams. Williams, meanwhile, would then line up in the slot as the team’s #3 cornerback.

At safety, everyone knows Ed Reed. Reed mentioned this offseason that he was not 100% committed for this season, which would be his 11^th. He also did not report to mandatory minicamp, but the team doesn’t seem too concerned about his availability for this season. Their biggest concern with him is that he’s 34 in September, has some recent injury history, and is a free agent after the season. Reed’s 12.0 rating in 2011 was good for 5^th at his position and he should have another solid year in 2012, in spite of his age.

Next to him, the Ravens have Bernard Pollard. Pollard has had an interesting career journey. Not only has he injured three separate Patriot players, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Rob Gronkowski, but he’s also been very inconsistent. The Patriot Killer, has always been a solid safety against the run, but had a career best season in coverage last year in his first season in Baltimore, allowing just 30 completions on 49 attempts (61.2%) for 379 yards (7.7 YPA), 1 touchdown, a pick, 9 deflections, and 3 penalties, good for a 1.4 rating.

It’s unclear if he can continue to be that good. Pollard was once a promising young safety in Kansas City after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2006, but lasted just 3 years before being cut in training camp in 2009. He then caught on in Houston in 2009, where he was so good the Texans tendered him at the highest possible level as a restricted free agent in the next offseason, but a year later, he was unwanted once more, as Houston non-tendered him. He was then forced to settle for just 2.7 million over 2 years from Baltimore. However, he played well enough last season to get a 12.3 million dollar extension over 3 years.

He was undoubtedly helped though by the supporting cast. The talent is still there in the back 4, maybe even more so with Jimmy Smith possibly coming into his own, but their front 7 is weaker. Because of this, they probably won’t be a top-3 pass defense again. They also won’t match their 48 sacks and 1^st ranked run defense. Because of this, more pressure will fall on the offense.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

His brother won Coach of the Year last year, but John Harbaugh is no slouch himself. Taking over a previously 5-11 team following the 2007 season, Harbaugh and his quarterback Joe Flacco have combined for a 44-20 record, including 11+ wins in 3 of 4 seasons and including back-to-back 12-4 seasons. They’ve been to the AFC Championship game twice, coming up short both times. Like his quarterback, Harbaugh will probably need a ring to be considered an elite Head Coach, but he’s up there. Fun fact: Harbaugh is the first coach in NFL history to make the playoffs in his first 4 seasons as Head Coach.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Ravens took a lot of hits this offseason with the losses of Cory Redding and Jarret Johnson in free agency and Terrell Suggs to injury. They also have some aging players defensively. More pressure will fall on quarterback Joe Flacco than ever before as he has been backed by a top-3 defense in each of his first 4 seasons as a pro. I don’t think Flacco will respond positively, especially since he has a subpar offensive line and receiving corps.

Baltimore actually has a tough division. They sent 3 teams to the playoffs last year. Baltimore went 6-0 in the division last year, but that’s tough to replicate. Teams almost never go 6-0 in the division twice in a row. In fact, since 2002, 11 teams have gone 6-0 in the division. Only 2 of them increased their overall win total the next year. Those 11 teams won on average 3.00 fewer games the next season. Because of familiarity, divisional records are more inconsistent on a yearly basis than non-divisional records.

Expect them to go 4-2 or so in the division. Outside of the division, they host New England, Dallas, Oakland, Denver and the Giants. Oakland will be an easy game, especially at home, but New England will be very tough. The other three will be winnable, but also losable. They are a good home team so they could go 4-1, but 3-2 is also a possibility. In their other 5 games, they go to Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Diego, Houston, and Washington. All 5 of those teams could make the playoffs and the Ravens were not a good road team last year. They could easily go 8-8 next year with that schedule.

Projection: 8-8 2^nd in AFC North

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Dallas Cowboys 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Offense

It’s always one thing or another with these Cowboys. They started 7-4, but finished at 8-8 and out of the playoffs after dropping two games to the Giants in 4 weeks, losing the 1^st one when Miles Austin lost a wide open touchdown in the sun and failed to catch it. In that game, they blew a 12 point lead to lose by 3, 37-34. In addition to 2 losses to the Giants, the Cowboys also dropped winnable games in Arizona and at home to Philadelphia, two non-playoff teams. In fact, you could argue that their struggles started 2 weeks prior against Washington, as they needed overtime to beat the last place Redskins. The next week, they only won by one against the lowly Dolphins, which was of course followed by their 1-4 slide.

Last year, I don’t really think you could blame Tony Romo. Yes, it’s easy to pin their week 1 loss to the Jets and their week 4 loss to the Lions on him for late turnovers, but they wouldn’t have even been in those games had it not been for him. Romo led the offense to 24 and 30 points respectively in those 2 losses and led the offense to 23.1 points per game on the season, 15^th in the league. A leaky defense, which ranked 16^th with 21.7 points per game allowed was more of a problem, particularly their 24^th ranked pass defense. Their defense was especially bad late in games.

Romo had a very strong season, ranking 4^th in the league in QB rating in what was dubbed the year of the quarterback. He completed 346 of 552 (66.3%) for 4184 yards (8.0 YPA), 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He did this despite struggles around him offensively and a nagging rib injury that bothered him early in the season. He was sacked 36 times behind a young offensive line that allowed 39 sacks total. He had a series of injuries to his running backs that left Sammy Morris seeing significant carries on their stretch run. Injuries at receiver left them young and inexperienced there as well until Laurent Robinson inexplicably stepped up.

Romo once again has a young supporting cast, but at age 32, all of the pressure is on him to lead this team to the Promised Land. Even owner Jerry Jones says their Super Bowl window is closing, perhaps in an effort to motivate his aging quarterback. In a loaded NFC and a stacked NFC East, he may find that very tough to do.

Quarterback

He gets a lot of heat for never getting it done on a big stage with high expectations, but any calls for Romo to be benched or traded are absurd. He’s not an elite quarterback on the level of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or either of the Mannings, but he’s still a top-10 quarterback or so. He’s always had a 60% or higher completion rate and a YPA above 7.5. In 3 full seasons as a starter, he’s surpassed 4000 yard and 25 touchdowns each time and he was on pace for both of those numbers in injury shortened years in 2008 and 2010.

He has a career completion percentage of 64.5, a career YPA of 8.1, and 149 touchdowns to 72 interceptions. You can do a lot worse than him. I think he could win a Super Bowl with the right pieces around him. I’m just not convinced he has them right now coming off an 8-8 season, which ironically is actually the worst record a Romo quarterback team has ever had. He’s not too bad.

Grade: B+

Running back

At running back, Romo has good supporting talent, but durability is the major question. DeMarco Murray will be the lead back. He took over for an injured Felix Jones and kept the job after Jones returned last year, up until an injury of his own, an ankle injury, ended his year. Murray averaged 5.5 YPC on 164 carries for 897 yards last year as a 3^rd round rookie, but you do have to note that 253 of those yards, on 25 carries, came against a Rams team that surrendered separate 200 yard performances to both Murray and Chris Wells and was generally awful against the run.

Murray is a talented back, but he’s had issues with durability throughout his career, including his days at Oklahoma. There’s a reason he was available in the 3^rd round last year. He might not make it through the season again this year. Behind him, the Cowboys have Felix Jones. Jones has talent, but has never lived up to being taken in the 1^st round in 2008. He’s incredibly inconsistent and injury prone. The Cowboys actually tried to trade him heading into his contract year for a mid round pick on draft day, to no avail. If he has to carry the load in Murray’s absence, the Cowboys could be in trouble. Their #3 back is Phillip Tanner, who has 22 career carries. The 2011 undrafted free agent may see an increased workload this season.

Grade: B

Wide receiver

Similar to running back, they have a lot of talent at wide receiver, but durability is a question. Miles Austin missed 6 games with injury and was limited in several others last year, catching just 43 passes for 549 yards and 7 touchdowns after back-to-back 1000 yard years. Dez Bryant, meanwhile, only missed one game, but admitted after the season that a lingering quadriceps injury limited him for most of the season. He also admitted his conditioning wasn’t great. He is having what’s being called a productive offseason, for what it’s worth, so the 2010 1^st round pick could finally unleash his talent in 2012, after 63 catches for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns last year.

With injuries to the starters last year, the Cowboys needed a 3^rd receiver to step up. Early in the season, the Cowboys relied on Kevin Ogletree to do so, but his frequent brain farts on the field lost him the job. Laurent Robinson, previously a career journeyman, took the opportunity and ran with it, catching 54 passes for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns. He took a large contract in Jacksonville this offseason though and the Cowboys didn’t replace him, which means it’ll probably to be left to Kevin Ogletree to be the 3^rd receiver this year unless 2011 6^th round pick Dwayne Harris or 2012 5^th round pick Danny Coale can beat him out. Durability and depth are problems at a position that is otherwise talented.

Luckily for Romo, he will once again have Jason Witten to lean on at tight end. The 6-6 265 pounder is as consistent as can be. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003. Since 2004, he’s had at least 64 catches for 754 yards in every season, maxing out with 96 catches for 1145 yards in 2007. Last year he had 79 catches for 942 yards and 5 touchdowns and more of the same can be expected from his this season. He’s also always been a good blocker.

The Cowboys like to use a lot of two-tight end sets. It’s for this reason that they used a 2008 2^nd round pick on Martellus Bennett, despite already having Witten. Bennett never quite lived up to being drafted there, but he was consistently one of the league’s best run blockers. He left this offseason for divisional rival New York and the Cowboys didn’t really do much to replace him. They promoted John Phillips, an unproven 2009 6^th round pick, and drafted James Hanna in the 6^th round of this past NFL Draft, but I don’t think either can be the blocker that Bennett was.

Grade: B+

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Offensive line

While they have talent at running back and wide receiver, just questions about durability, on the offensive line the problem is more with the talent itself. Things are fine at offensive tackle with Doug Free and Tyron Smith. Free and Smith will be switching sides this season, with Smith going to the left side and Free going to the right side. On paper, that looks like a productive move because Smith is significantly more athletic, while Free’s lack of athleticism won’t be as much of a problem on the right side and his gritty toughness will be allowed to shine. However, switching positions is always a risk, especially for someone like Tyron Smith who was a right tackle dating back to his USC days opposite Matt Kalil.

While Smith is significantly more athletic than Free and more suited to deal with speed rushers, that doesn’t mean he’s not a physical blocker who can help the run game. He was ProFootballFocus’ 4^th rated offensive tackle last year with a 13.7 rating and graded out equally well in pass protection and run blocking. He allowed 8 sacks, but sacks are an overrated statistic. He only allowed 1 quarterback hit and 21 quarterback hits, numbers that provide more insight into how he helped keep Romo protected. He was also penalized 7 times.

Free, meanwhile, really struggled on the left side, part of why he’s moving to the right side. He allowed 10 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, 34 quarterback pressures, and committed 10 penalties as his -11.9 rating was 53th among 76 offensive tackles. He was above average as a run blocker, however, and in 2010, he was much better with a 17.4 rating overall. The switch is risky because Smith is playing an entirely new position and because Free was once a very good left tackle, but it may pay off.

On the interior of the offensive line, that’s where things are really bleak. Starters Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland really struggled at guard last year and that’s why neither were brought back. Both, not surprising, are still available on the open market. I don’t know that the guys the Cowboys replaced them with are any better. They signed Nate Livings from Cincinnati, but he graded out with a -10.5 rating last year.

They also signed Mackenzy Bernadeau from Carolina, who is someone I’ll even acknowledge I had never heard of before they signed him. He was a backup in Carolina after being a 2008 7^th round pick. For some reason, the Cowboys signed him to a fairly significant contract with intentions of him being a starter, but he had offseason hip surgery which ruined his timetable to become the starter. David Arkin and Ronald Leary will also compete for the starting job opposite Livings. Arkin was their 4^th round pick in 2011, while Leary went undrafted this past April. The Cowboys reportedly had a 3^rd round grade on him, but the fact that an undrafted free agent could start for this team week 1 shows how pathetic the interior of their offensive line is.

At center, Phil Costa will be given another chance. He was ProFootballFocus’ 30^th rated center out of 35 with a -9.7 rating and I don’t think that even takes into account that he led the league in botched snaps. He allowed 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 15 quarterback pressures, and committed 2 penalties, while struggling as a run blocker. He’ll need to get things together or he could be challenged by Bill Nagy, a 2011 7^th round pick who was actually their week 1 starter at left guard last year (not quite as bad as an undrafted free agent, but still).

Nagy had a -9.0 rating in 4 starts at guard so he might not be any better than Costa. I’m baffled that they didn’t draft a single offensive lineman in the 2012 NFL Draft given their struggles upfront. Tony Romo can’t be pleased about that. Still, they have the most important position figured out, the quarterback, and they could have better luck with injuries at running back and wide receiver. This is still a strong group and not the problem area. Defense is where their bigger issues were.

Grade: C+

Defense

The Cowboys’ worst group last year was their defensive backs. Credit them for paying a lot of focus to that area in the offseason. They added Morris Claiborne, the draft’s best cornerback, and Brandon Carr, free agency’s best cornerback. However, they added those two at the expense of addressing other needs, like the offensive line, the defensive line, and depth at the offensive skill positions.

Defensive line

As the offensive line is the Cowboys’ worst group offensively, the defensive line is the Cowboys’ worst group defensively. They use a lot of rotation on the line with a lot of different players to mask the fact that they don’t have a lot of talent. Nose tackle Jay Ratliff is easily the most talented of the bunch and he graded out 7^th among nose tackles/defensive tackles with an 18.6 rating. Despite being undersized at 305 pounds or so, he was equally good against the run as he was as a pass rusher. Josh Brent, more of a true nose tackle, provides solid depth behind him.

At defensive end, the Cowboys used a rotation of 4 different players at 2 spots. Those 4 players were Jason Hatcher, Kenyon Coleman, Marcus Spears, and Sean Lissemore. With the exception of Lissemore (I’ll get to him later), none of those guys were very good and none played more than 428 snaps. The Cowboys drafted Tyrone Coleman in the 3^rd round so he should see snaps at the position this year and they’ve said they’ll be giving Lissemore a bigger role this year, which has led many to suggest that the veteran Coleman (33), could be cut. I agree with that suggestion.

Lissemore, as I’ve already mentioned, was their best player at the position last year. He had a 13.8 rating on just 283 snaps. He wasn’t much of a pass rusher, but he had 18 solo tackles, 8 assists and 16 stops on just 119 run defense snaps, while missing only 2 tackles. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd rated 3-4 defensive end against the run, behind Ray McDonald and Glenn Dorsey. He played all over the line, both end spots and nose tackle, and will have a bigger role this season. We’ll see if the added playing time will help or hurt him, but he’s a potential breakout star, with the key word being potential.

He, Jason Hatcher, and Marcus Spears should get the bulk of the snaps this year at the position, with the rookie Crawford being worked in gradually. Spears was the worst of the bunch with a -3.6 rating. He has never lived up to being a 1^st round pick (in 2005) and I’m baffled that the Cowboys gave him an expensive, long term extension after the 2010 season. All in all, this is not a position of strength. Yes, they spent a 3^rd round pick on the position, but they were also linked to players like Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe at 14 before they moved up and for good reason.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Things are better at linebacker. When mentioning their linebackers, you have to first mention DeMarcus Ware. Ware leads the NFL with 99.5 sacks over the last 7 years after being the 11^th overall pick in 2005 NFL Draft. He’s already 29^th on the all-time sacks list and looks like a future Hall of Famer even though he’s only heading into his age 30 season. Last season was no different, as he had 20 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 44 quarterback pressures on 476 pass rush snaps (15.1%). Somehow those 20 sacks didn’t lead the league, but it’s still an incredibly impressive number.

He’s a pretty one dimensional player who doesn’t excel against the run or in coverage, but when you rush the passer as well as him, it doesn’t really matter. He had a 32.6 rating overall, 3^rd at his position, but his 35.6 pass rush rating not only paced his position, but was best in the league. 11 penalties is the only major flaw in his 2011 season.

Opposite him, Anthony Spencer has never managed more than 6 sacks in a season despite defenses regularly focusing on Ware opposite him. The former 1^st round pick hasn’t really lived up to his draft range, but last year he was actually pretty good. His 6 sacks don’t tell the whole story as he had 9 quarterback hits and 35 quarterback pressures and a 10.4 rating that was 10^th at his position.

He was surprisingly given the franchise tag this offseason, normally reserved for the elites of a position, but it does mean he’ll be back this season. He signed that tender almost immediately, knowing that 8.856 million was almost definitely too much for a player that can’t be described as anything better than above average. Victor Butler, meanwhile, provides solid depth and the Cowboys used a 4^th round pick on Kyle Wilber, a player who can play inside and out and who has experience in a 3-4 from Wake Forest. Either one of those two could be Spencer’s long term successor.

In between those two, the Cowboys have 3 middle linebackers who will rotate. Sean Lee is essentially an every down middle linebacker. He played 868 snaps last year and had a 13.9 rating, good for 14^th at his position. He should have the same role this season. Bruce Carter and Dan Connor will split snaps next to him. Connor was an offseason acquisition from Carolina, a solid player who played well in the absence of some injured players last year. He deserved a bigger role somewhere and the Cowboys gave him it. He had a 4.9 rating last year. Carter, meanwhile, will come in on passing downs. The 2011 2^nd round pick barely played as a rookie thanks to injury, playing 41 snaps, but he’s a talented player who might have gone in the 1^st round had it not been for his torn ACL.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

As I’ve said before, the Cowboys’ biggest weakness last year was their secondary. The Cowboys ranked 24^th against the pass with 7.6 YPA, despite 42 sacks, a good number. Their worst defensive back was Terence Newman, whose -9.1 rating was as a result of a -11.2 rating in coverage. Newman was promptly cut this offseason, heading into his age 34 season.

To replace him, the Cowboys signed Brandon Carr to a 5 year, 50.1 million dollar contract. Carr, along with Cortland Finnegan and the franchise tagged Brent Grimes, was one of the top defensive backs in a strong defensive back free agent class. Carr had a very good season last year, allowing just 39 completions on 79 attempts (49.4%) for 511 yards (6.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 7 deflections and 5 penalties in Kansas City. Among cornerbacks who played 75% or more of their teams snaps, he ranked 5^th with a 61.7 QB rating allowed. The one concern is that he was always the #2 cornerback with Brandon Flowers and never had to cover the opponent’s top receiver. He’ll also be switching sides of the field this year.

The Cowboys weren’t done upgrading the cornerback position as they traded up to the 6^th pick to grab Morris Claiborne, the consensus top cornerback prospect of the draft class. This move sent Mike Jenkins to the bench. Jenkins was a 1^st round pick in 2008 and a Pro Bowler in 2009, but he has disappointed over the past two years. He was better in 2011 than 2010, but an upgrade still could have been had, especially as he heads into a contract year. Jenkins is a talented player, but he has inconsistent play because of an inconsistent motor. Claiborne, meanwhile, could struggle as a rookie in coverage. Rookie cornerbacks tend to (even Patrick Peterson did last year), but he has a bright future.

Jenkins was not happy about being moved to the bench and demanded a trade. Though they’ve received interest from at least 4 teams, including the Colts and Lions, the Cowboys are saying publicly that they will be keeping Jenkins. Some still speculate that they are saying this to drive up the asking price and/or to make sure that Claiborne is 100% healthy off of wrist surgery before moving him and that he could be dealt in Training Camp.

If kept, Jenkins will compete with Orlando Scandrick to be the #3 cornerback and play the slot. Scandrick is seen as the favorite as the Cowboys, for whatever reason, love Scandrick in that spot. They signed him to a 27 million dollar contract over 5 years last year. He rewarded them with a -5.6 rating and a 100.2 QB rating allowed and he’s never been much better in the past. Still, GM/Owner Jerry Jones is insisting they don’t regret the extension, a sign that Scandrick is the favorite over Jenkins.

That would leave Jenkins as the 4^th cornerback, which, obviously, he wouldn’t like. There was a report that the Cowboys would use more 4 cornerback sets with their 4 cornerbacks, in order to make up for their lack of depth at safety (more on that later). In this plan, Orlando Scandrick would have lined up at free safety on passing downs and Jenkins would play the slot. Scandrick has refused the move to safety, but perhaps they could try the same setup with Jenkins at free safety. At the same time, it wouldn’t shock me if Jenkins was traded. Other teams in the league view him as a starter and they should be able to get a mid round pick, good value for a disgruntled depth cornerback who is in a walk year.

I mentioned their lack of depth at safety, in addition to Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe, they were also linked to Mark Barron at 14 before they moved up. They didn’t take a safety until the 4^th round when they reached for Matt Johnson, who is not expected to do anything more than special teams as a rookie.

They have one good safety, Gerald Sensabaugh, a solid player who they gave an extension towards the end of last season. However, opposite him, Brodney Pool will compete with Barry Church for the starting job. Pool signed as a free agent from Jets. He’s a decent player when healthy, but he rarely is healthy and injuries may have sapped his abilities. Church, meanwhile, is a reserve who impressed in limited action last year. The organization is high on the 2010 undrafted free agent out of Toledo. Still, this is a position of weakness and they may be better off converting a cornerback for passing downs.

Grade: B

Head Coach

The Cowboys had been grooming Jason Garrett as a Head Coach for years and there was a lot of buzz about him, so much so that he got several offers to be the Head Coach elsewhere before deciding to remain the coach in waiting in Dallas. Garrett impressed in his 1^st year, finishing 5-3 with a previously 1-7 team despite the loss of Tony Romo at quarterback. However, last year, he fell short of expectations in 2011 with an 8-8 record and a botched late timeout that caused him to ice his own kicker in an eventual loss to Arizona. There were even calls for his job, which were a bit premature. He’s definitely better than Wade Phillips. Still, it’s tough to see what all the fuss was about with him before he became a coach.

Grade: B-

Overall

Overall, this is a solid team. They could be improved on both sides of the football with better health offensively and additions to their secondary, their worst group in 2011. However, they’re still not without holes as their defensive line is average at best, their interior offensive line might be the worst in the league, and they lack depth at offensive skill positions. They put all of their eggs in one basket in the draft with Morris Claiborne and given that rookie cornerbacks tend to struggle, that might not pan out at least this season.

If they were in the AFC, I would have a hard time keeping them out of the playoffs, but they’re in the NFC with 10 or 11 teams that are all above average on paper. It’s going to be very tough for them to sneak into the playoffs. They’re a contender, but they’re also in a stacked division, which they probably won’t win and I think there’s at least 2 wild card teams that are better than them. It’s always one thing or another with this team and I think that they’ll disappoint once again this year and miss the playoffs, even if only barely like last year.

In the division, they’ll probably go 2-4 or 3-3 or so. Outside of the division, they host Tampa Bay, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. Cleveland and Tampa Bay could be pretty easy, but Chicago is tougher and Pittsburgh and New Orleans will be even tougher still. 2-3 or 3-2 in those 5 games is definitely possible. They also go to Seattle, Baltimore, Carolina, Atlanta, and Cincinnati. Carolina and Cincinnati are winnable games, but Seattle and Atlanta are both tough places to win and Baltimore is another tough team. 2-3 or 3-2 in those games is also possible, so average everything out and give them a 5-5 out of division record and let’s say a 2-4 in division record, that’s 7-9, which seems about right.

Update: No real reason why I’m adding the extra win, but when I made updates elsewhere, I was left needing to assign an extra win somewhere and the Cowboys were right on the 7/8 borderline.

Projection: 8-8 4^th in NFC East

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Washington Redskins 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Offense

Remember when Mike Shanahan won 2 Super Bowls? Good times. The Redskins hired him thinking they were getting a future Hall of Fame Head Coach who would bring them out of mediocrity and into the playoffs. That hasn’t happened. In 2 seasons, Shanahan has gone 11-21. In his 1^st year in 2010, he traded for Donovan McNabb, who didn’t even finish the year before being benched. In his 2^nd year, last year, he tried to coach up two mediocre quarterbacks, Rex Grossman and John Beck and neither of those guys panned out.

Heading into his 3^rd season as Head Coach, Mike Shanahan had to be feeling his seat getting hot. In response to that, the Redskins made one of the boldest draft day trades ever, giving up their 1^st round pick in 2013, their 1^st round pick in 2014, and their 2^nd round pick in 2012 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2 to draft Robert Griffin out of Baylor.

They certainly gave up a lot to get him. In fact, it was the 1^st draft day trade involving a team giving up three 1^st rounders in NFL history. However, they could be getting a legitimate franchise quarterback and at a team friendly salary. How many 1^st rounders would you give up for Cam Newton at his current salary? 3? 4? Is there even a price he could be had for? Griffin is more mature as a thrower than Newton was at this time last year and could end up being the better quarterback. If that happens, the Redskins could be picking in the 20s in 2013 and 2014 so it won’t matter so much that they don’t have picks. And if he flops…well Mike Shanahan would have been fired anyway. Some sportsbooks, like the ones that can be found at this sportsbook review, were even giving odds that Shanahan would be fired after last season. He had to do something.

The Redskins haven’t had a legitimate franchise quarterback in forever. They haven’t won more than 10 games since 1991. That’s why they felt like they had to shoot for the stars and I think they’ll be rewarded with Griffin. This team managed 5 wins last year despite terrible quarterback play. They have a solid defense, added some more pieces this offseason, and now they have their quarterback. Robert Griffin is definitely stepping into a better situation than Andrew Luck or Cam Newton. It reminds me more like what Andy Dalton stepped into last year or Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan in 2008, etc. Those 3 guys all made the playoffs as rookies.

Could the same thing happen for Griffin this year? I think it could. One team has gone from 5 or fewer wins one year to the playoffs the next every season since 2003. The teams that would qualify in 2012: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Jacksonville. I think Washington has the best chance of that bunch. They had 35 turnovers last year and since 2002, 42 teams have had 35+ turnovers. Those teams had an average of 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and won 1.61 more games. Griffin could definitely be the next in that line of rookie quarterbacks making the playoffs.

Quarterbacks

I’ve already mentioned Griffin at length. They essentially made him their starting quarterback before they even drafted him. He’ll be out there week 1 as the Redskins travel to New Orleans (rough welcome). He was the Heisman winner last year and arguably had a better season last year than #1 pick Andrew Luck ever had (Luck had 2 very good years, did it with less supporting talent, and ran more of the offense, which is why he went #1 overall). On top of that, he’s a perfect fit for Mike Shanahan’s system. His ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally is Elway-esque (not saying he’s that good). He’ll do just fine as a rookie.

Grade: B

Running backs

As anyone who reads my fantasy football stuff knows, I have no clue what Mike Shanahan is planning on doing with his running backs. He changes his mind with backs so much. Last year, Tim Hightower started out the year as the lead back, lost his job to Ryan Torain, got hurt, Torain took over, then he lost his job to Roy Helu, who briefly lost his job to Ryan Torain, before getting it back, getting hurt, losing his job to Evan Royster, who then split carries with Helu in the finale once he returned.

Earlier this offseason, it looked like it would be Helu and Royster getting some sort of split of the carries with Torain and Hightower unsigned. However, then they signed Hightower and there are varying reporting saying everything from Hightower will be the lead back week 1 to Hightower might not be healthy by Training Camp. On top of all this, they used a 6^th round pick on Alfred Morris, who Shanahan says is a perfect fit for his system. He might have just been a 6^th round pick, but Helu and Royster were 4^th and 6^th round picks in 2011 and they had impacts as a rookie.

Helu and Royster would both seem to be more talented running backs than Hightower. Helu rushed for 640 yards and 2 touchdowns on 151 carries (4.2 YPC) and caught 49 passes, while Royster rushed for 328 yards on 56 carries (5.9 YPC) and caught 9 passes. Helu was also the 4^th best pass blocking back in the league, according to ProFootballFocus, last season. Hightower, meanwhile, rushed for 321 yards and a touchdown on 84 carries (3.8 YPC) and 10 catches. However, Shanahan seems to have a thing for Hightower for whatever reason.

I expect all 4 backs and maybe even a back I haven’t mentioned to get some action this season for the Redskins and it’ll be unpredictable. All this means it’ll be a nightmare for fantasy football players, but Mike Shanahan teams always run the ball fairly well overall. Robert Griffin’s rushing abilities will help the running game for two reasons. Obviously, he’ll add yards, but he’ll also open things up for the backs the way Michael Vick does for LeSean McCoy, Vince Young did for Chris Johnson, and Tim Tebow did for Willis McGahee.

Grade: B-

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Wide Receivers

The Redskins made two offseason additions at wide receiver, with the most prominent one being Pierre Garcon. They gave Garcon #1 wide receiver money, giving him 42.5 million over 5 years, even though he was always the #2 or #3 receiver in Indianapolis. He’s also never gone over 1000 yards, though the 70 catches for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns he managed last year with Curtis Painter/Dan Orlovsky were impressive. If he had a legitimate quarterback, he could have easily had 80+ catches for 1100+ yards last year and he’s only 26 in August. That being said, receivers have a poor history when changing teams so I have some doubts that he’ll live up to his contract.

Josh Morgan was the other wide receiver addition. He didn’t get nearly as much money as Garcon and is not nearly as big of a name. He’s a decent player, but I got the feeling he was overrated for being underrated this offseason. The Redskins gave him 12 million over 2 years, but his former team, the 49ers, replaced him with Mario Manningham, a more proven player who came cheaper. Morgan has never had more than 44 catches for 698 yards and 3 touchdowns in a season, but he did play on a conservative offense in San Francisco. He’s also coming off a broken leg that cost him most of last season. He might not even be a starter in Washington so that signing was head scratching.

With Garcon and Morgan coming in, many wondered if Santana Moss would be cut. Moss has been one of the Redskins’ best players for the past decade or so, since his arrival following the 2004 season. However, he’s 33 and coming off his worst season since 2002 and missed several games with injuries. Instead, the Redskins cut Jabar Gaffney, their leading receiver from last year, who happened to be 2 years younger, which looked like a head scratching move at the time.

However, Moss responded very well to being kept on the roster. He lost 15 pounds and has been wowing in practice. He’s not even 2 years removed from 93 catches for 1115 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010 with poor quarterback play so he might still be able to contribute even at 33. 33 isn’t quite a death sentence for receivers and Moss has had a very underrated career in spite of consistently terrible quarterback play. At the very least, he’ll be their slot receiver, but reports say that he could still be a starter and might even end up being their #1 receiver since Garcon is so unproven. If Moss could find his old form, that would help Garcon a lot because, as I’ve already mentioned, he’s always been a secondary receiver.

I think that’s a little optimistic, but I do expect Moss to be a starter and their #2 wide receiver. In 3-wide receiver sets, he’ll move into the slot, where he’s a dangerous player. Morgan and Leonard Hankerson would then be left to compete for the #3 receiver job. The winner of that competition would play opposite Garcon with Moss in the slot when they go 3 wide. Both of those players are also in the mix for the starting job, but I think Moss will get it.

Hankerson was their 3^rd round pick last year and I thought they got a steal with him there. He started to prove me right, catching 8 passes for 106 yards against Miami in his 1^st start, but he got hurt and didn’t play again. Barring any lingering problems from his hip surgery, he should be their #3 receiver and could impress in limited action in that role because of his great athleticism.

It’s not all about the wide receivers in Washington. Fred Davis is one of the league’s most underrated players and one of the league’s best tight ends. He caught 59 passes for 796 yards and 3 touchdowns last year in just 12 games despite terrible quarterback play. He did miss 4 games with a suspension after failing a drug test and he would miss the entire season if he fails another one, but if that doesn’t happen, he could approach 1000 yards this year. Griffin definitely has some players to throw to. With the additions of Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon and the returns of Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson, as well as likely a full season from Fred Davis, this should be a much improved receiving corps.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Mike Shanahan always had great offensive lines in Denver, but that hasn’t been the case in Washington. They allowed 41 sacks last year and graded out as the 3^rd worst run blocking offensive line on ProFootballFocus. Their most talented offensive lineman is Trent Williams, the 4^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Williams struggled as a rookie in 2010, but last year allowed just 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures in 9 games. He was penalized 8 times, but he graded out above average in run and pass blocking and had a 3.8 overall rating on ProFootballFocus. He did miss 3 games with injury and another 4 with suspension after failing a drug test. Like Davis, he’ll need to avoid another suspension because that would be for a year.

Other than that, things are pretty bleak for the Redskins up front, but having Williams out there for a full season will make things better. Their other offensive tackle is Jammal Brown. Brown was once an elite left tackle in New Orleans, but hasn’t been the same since hip surgery. He really struggled last year, allowing 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. He finished with a -18.5 rating.

He might never be the same again and the Redskins didn’t add a good backup behind him so they’ll get below average play from that position this year. Their primary backup there is Willie Smith. Smith started 4 games when Williams was suspended last year. He was absolutely awful, finishing with a -13.0 rating, allowing 3 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures.

Another player who missed a lot of time with injury last year was Kory Lichtensteiger. Lichtensteiger was their 2^nd best offensive lineman with a 2.7 rating last year, but missed 12 games with a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus. However, he is expected to return for Training Camp and start at left guard, which will be a welcome addition as his replacement, Maurice Hurt, graded out with a -12.5 rating.

Their other guard is Chris Chester. He played every snap in 2011, though the Redskins may have wished he hadn’t. Chester was actually above average in pass protection, but he was the league’s worst run blocking guard and his overall -17.2 rating was 70^th among 77 players at the position. If Lichtensteiger can’t bounce back from injury or Chester continues to struggle, 2012 3^rd round pick Josh LeRibeus could see some action, but guard is still hardly a position of strength.

Their center will once again be Will Montgomery, the other Washington offensive lineman to play every snap. He wasn’t too bad, at least not relatively, with a -6.4 rating. That number is skewed a little bit. He actually graded out with a 3.4 rating as a center, but a -9.8 rating in 3 games at left guard sunk his rating. If he’s allowed to play center full time this year, he should be a solid starter. For that reason, as well as the return of Kory Lichtensteiger and Trent Williams, and the addition of Josh LeRibeus as depth, the Redskins should be better upfront this season, but they’re still not great. Overall though, with the addition of Robert Griffin, a better receiving corps and a better offensive line, they should be a much improved offense.

Grade: C+

Defense

Defense was part of the problem for the Redskins last year as they ranked 18^th against the run, 21^st against the pass, and 21^st in points per game allowed with 22.1. They weren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they were offensively, but they weren’t great. However, they have a lot of talent, especially in the front 7, and they should be an improved bunch this season because they have a lot of young players.

Defensive Line

The Redskins had a lot of hope for their defensive line heading into 2011. They added two talented free agents, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield, and 2^nd round rookie Jarvis Jenkins, who was having a very strong Training Camp. However, Jenkins tore his ACL before week 1 and had to be replaced with the mediocre Adam Carriker in the starting lineup. Carriker is a decent pass rusher, but was horrible against the run. He was the worst run stuffing 3-4 defensive end on ProFootballFocus, which contributed to his overall -9.5 rating, 30^th at his position out of 32. Jenkins is once again having a strong offseason and he should be able to be the starter, putting Carriker in a situational role, where he’s better suited.

Bowen and Cofield weren’t as bad as Carriker, but they did disappoint a little bit and both graded out below average. Bowen had a -1.9 rating and Cofield had a -5.7 rating. Both have been very good players in the past as they had a 16.0 rating and a 17.2 rating respectively in 2010 so one or both could have bounce back years. Next to Jarvis Jenkins, with Adam Carriker serving a situational role with another solid situational player Chris Nield, that’s a pretty good defensive line.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

While the defensive line could be good, the linebackers might be even better. In fact, I think this is a very underrated group. They were a big part of the reason why they had 41 sacks last year, an impressive number. Ryan Kerrigan had an excellent rookie season with 9 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 451 pass rush snaps (12.6%). He wasn’t as good in coverage or against the run, but he was very good at what they needed him to do most. He played opposite Brian Orakpo, who had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures on 390 pass rush snaps (15.1%). He’s more proven than Kerrigan, who is going into only his 2^nd season, but the two combine for a very tough to stop pass rushing duo.

Things are also bright on the inside of their linebacking corps. London Fletcher has been one of the best linebackers of the decade and deserves to get his name mentioned with both Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher. He graded out with a 19.9 rating last year and was above average in all aspects of the game, run defense, pass rush, and pass coverage. He’s 37 now, but he’s beaten the odds countless times before.

Next to him is Perry Riley, a 2010 4^th round pick who played very well down the stretch. In 8 starts, he posted a 4.9 rating and was a major upgrade over Rocky McIntosh, who had a -8.8 rating in the first 8 games. McIntosh never was comfortable in Washington’s 3-4 and a full season of Riley next to Fletcher will make this defense better overall.

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Secondary

This is where things get bleaker defensively for the Redskins. DeAngelo Hall is one of the most overrated and overpaid players in the league. He has a 6 year, 55 million dollar contract likely because he has a lot of interceptions, but he struggles in coverage and gets torched far too often. He’s not a #1 cornerback and would be better off as a #2 cornerback so he wouldn’t have to cover opposing #1 wide receivers. Last season, he allowed 63 of 94 (67.0%) for 858 yards (9.1 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 10 deflections, and 4 penalties. His -8.5 coverage rating was 95^th out of 109 at his position.

Opposite him, Josh Wilson is a solid #2 cornerback. He had a -0.3 rating, which is almost as average as you can be. That wasn’t nearly as good as the 13.0 rating he had in 2010, 5^th at his position, when he was with Baltimore, but that season was a bit of a fluke. He’s a solid, but unspectacular cornerback. The Redskins signed Cedric Griffin to be their nickel back this season. He’s a decent nickel back and he’ll be a major upgrade over Kevin Barnes, who really struggled in that role last season. He ranked 98^th among 109 at his position and allowed 27 completions on 43 attempts (62.8%) for 350 yards (8.1 YPA), 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 1 deflection, and 2 penalties. It’s pretty pathetic that he was that bad as just a 3^rd cornerback and Griffin will be a major upgrade over him.

At safety, things are actually worse. They have a bunch of castoffs atop their depth chart. Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson were both met with a very unwelcoming free agency market. Meriweather was cut by the Patriots and benched by the Bears last season, while Jackson was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th worst safety with a -14.7 rating, the reason why the Buccaneers cut him this offseason. No one missed more tackles than Jackson did last year, 24. They’re expected to be the starters.

Madieu Williams will challenge them for the starting job. He barely played last year as a backup in San Francisco and was horrific the last time he was a starter in the league, with a -13.4 rating in 2010. Only one player was worse than that during that season. Reed Doughty could also be in the mix. He’s their most proven returning player at the position, but he too was awful last year with a -14.2 rating, 7^th worst at the position. DeJon Gomes could also be in the mix, but he barely played last year as he was just a 5^th round rookie. He’s unproven, but I guess that’s better than terrible, which everyone ahead of him on the depth chart is.

Overall, things are pretty bleak in the secondary for the Redskins, but they have some talent and good defenses do start upfront. The Redskins have an above average front 7 and a strong pass rush which should help make their pass defense at least passable. All in all, I think this is a solid defense and with an above average offense, they should definitely be able to compete for a playoff spot in 2012.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Shanahan’s reputation has taken a hit over the past 2 seasons, but he does have a 154-108 career record, which is pretty impressive. Some will say that he only has 2 Super Bowl rings because of John Elway, but remember Elway didn’t win a ring before him. Shanahan has also had success with several different quarterbacks. It wasn’t just Elway. He had success with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler.

Yes, he has an 11-21 record in the last 2 years, but he had a decrepit Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and John Beck as his quarterbacks. You can blame him for choosing those guys as his quarterbacks, but he never had much of a choice as the incumbent when he entered was Jason Campbell, who isn’t much better than any of those guys. This offseason, he made a bold move I really liked to secure a franchise quarterback, Robert Griffin. The Griffin/Shanahan duo should have success in the future and make people forget about the McNabb/Grossman/Beck days.

Grade: B+

Overall

One team has gone from 5 or fewer wins one year to the playoffs the next every season since 2003. The teams that would qualify in 2012: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Jacksonville. I think Washington has the best chance of that bunch. They should have an above average offense and a solid defense, which definitely puts them right in the race for a playoff spot even in a tight NFC and I’m going to give them the 6^th and final playoff spot.

They play in a tough division, but they should still be able to tough out 3-3 or 4-2. Outside of the division, they host Cincinnati, Atlanta, Minnesota, Carolina, and Baltimore. Minnesota is going to be a pretty easy game for them and I think they can go at least 2-2 in the other 4 games at home. Atlanta is not a good road team and I think Cincinnati and Baltimore will both disappoint this year. Carolina still has struggles defensively and could have another sub .500 year this year so 3-2 or 4-1 in non-divisional home games is possible.

That puts them at 7-4 across those 11 games. Their final 5 games, their non-divisional road games, send them to New Orleans, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. New Orleans and Pittsburgh should be tough ones, but the other 3 are all going to be pretty easy, so 10-6 or 11-5 is definitely in reach. That’s what it will take to win a wild card spot in the NFC. That will also qualify them to be this year’s super sleeper, a team that wins 6+ more games than the year before. There’s one every year.

Update: Robert Griffin’s offensive line has been so horrific this preseason and admittedly I may have been a little bit too high on them, especially in a crowded NFC. I like Griffin and their receivers and their defensive front 7, but their secondary and offensive line are way too glaring of holes to have in a passing league like this.

Projection: 8-8 3rd in NFC East

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