San Francisco 49ers 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 9, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Offense

We all know what happened with the 49ers last year. After a near decade of mediocrity, across several different unsuccessful Head Coaches, the 49ers shocked the league in their 1^st year under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh going 13-3 ended up 2 special teams gaffes away from the Super Bowl. The defense was one of, if not the best in the league, ranking tied for 10^th against the pass, tied for 1^st against the run, and 2^nd in total scoring, only .1 points behind league leading Pittsburgh.

Quarterback

However, the big story in San Francisco was a breakout year for Alex Smith. Smith was incredibly mediocre throughout his 6 years in San Francisco. He never lived up to his billing as the #1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, but he was just good enough to keep his job almost every year as the quarterback of a mediocre football club. He went through seemingly a different offensive coordinator every year and had minimal offensive help and he looked like damaged goods.

That all changed when Harbaugh came in. Harbaugh believed in Alex Smith as a starter and catered the offense around his strengths. Smith was hardly an elite quarterback, but he did just enough to win a lot of games for this team. The most important stat for him was 5: 5 interceptions, easily the best in the league.

The 49ers spent this offseason building around Smith, trying to get him more weapons offensively. They brought in two running backs, LaMichael James, a 2^nd round pick, and Brandon Jacobs, a veteran short yardage back, as well as 3 wide receivers, AJ Jenkins, a 1^st round pick, Mario Manningham, a former starter of the New York Giants, and Randy Moss, a reclamation project heading into his age 35 season. While that could make this a more explosive passing offense, it’s also reasonable to think that the offense will be less efficient.

The 49ers had the fewest turnovers in the league last year with 10, including 5 interceptions by Smith. In fact, that was tied for the fewest turnovers ever in a single season. It’s unrealistic to think they can match that number. Since 2002, 36 teams have had 20 or fewer turnovers in a season. In the next season, those teams had an average of 9.64 more turnovers and thus won an average of 2.69 fewer games.

Of those 36 teams, only one had fewer turnovers the next season and only one had the same number of turnovers the next season. Those teams were both the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts achieved 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times over that time period so they would seem to be an outlier, and the only one. Of those 36 teams, only 4 won more games the next season. 3 of them: you guessed it. The Indianapolis Colts. The 49ers don’t have nearly that established of a quarterback. Every year since 2003, at least one team that had a 1^st round bye misses the playoffs the next season. The 49ers are clearly a candidate to do that this year.

Grade: B-

Running backs

As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers brought in two new running backs this offseason, Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James. The 49ers were already one of the better running teams in the league so I don’t know how much this helps, but it at least makes them more versatile offensively. Brandon Jacobs is the short yardage back they lacked last season and while Kendall Hunter has good speed and is a good pass catcher, LaMichael James is better in both of those aspects than him, though he is very one dimensional.

Frank Gore is heading into his age 29 season and while Jim Harbaugh insists that their moves at running back this offseason are not an indictment on Frank Gore’s abilities, I would be very surprised if he didn’t see fewer carries than he normally does. Kendall Hunter, a 4^th round pick in 2011, is a talented back and potential successor to Gore’s lead back role. He’s their 2^nd most talented back, in my opinion, ahead of the unproven LaMichael James.

James is a big name, but he was also a reach in the 2^nd round. He’s undersized and already has a lot of carries and injuries carrying over from his collegiate days at Oregon. He was a fantastic college player, but his game relies too much on defensive missed assignments in run support and that doesn’t happen often enough in the NFL for him to be that successful. Just look at how good collegiate defenses like LSU, Auburn, and Stanford (the full strength 2010 version) held him in check.

The 49ers obviously drafted him with Darren Sproles, who had a big game against them last season, in mind, but Sproles is a one of a kind player and the 49ers will be very disappointed if they think James will be as good. Brandon Jacobs, meanwhile, is going to be 30 and doesn’t have much left, but the 49ers probably only need him in short yardage situations and at 265 pounds, he still has the size and power to do that effectively.

Grade: B+

Wide receivers/Tight ends

In addition to the two running backs they brought in this offseason, the 49ers also brought in 3 wide receivers, as I already mentioned. This was a focus of their offseason and rightfully so. Kyle Williams is the easy scapegoat for their NFC Championship game loss to the New York Giants, but their receivers’ inability to get open likely cost them at least the 10 points Williams did and unlike Williams, they were all playing a position they naturally play. Tight end Vernon Davis had a huge game, but only Michael Crabtree (1 catch for 3 yards) had any statistical production from the wide receiver spot.

Crabtree, drafted 10^th overall in 2009 to be their #1 wide receiver, has yet to emerge as such yet. His poor performance in the NFC Championship game is one example, as is the fact that he’s never gone over 1000 yards in a season. The 49ers did not bring in a legitimate #1 wide receiver this offseason, but they got some guys they think will help.

Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkins, and Randy Moss will help, but probably not as much as they think. Manningham is a marginal talent who Eli Manning made look a lot better than he is. AJ Jenkins is reportedly having an awful camp and may open the season 5^th on their depth chart behind, in some order, Crabtree, Moss, Manningham, and Kyle Williams (a better receiver than return man). A surprise 1^st round pick, Jenkins has not made them look shrewd yet. Moss, meanwhile, is making them look shrewd as he reportedly is dominating in practice. However, at age 35 in August, after being out of the league last year and essentially having a lost year in 2010 with 3 teams, I’m in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode with Moss.

With what can still be categorized as an average at best wide receiver group, the 49ers will need a strong effort from tight end Vernon Davis. If the way he ended last season is any indication, they’ll get that. In Davis’ last 5 games, including playoffs, he had 28 catches for 536 yards and 5 touchdowns. He admits he didn’t know the playbook fully early in the season, but once he did, he really caught fire.

Last year overall was a down year statistically for him with 67 catches for 792 yards and 6 touchdowns, but remember, he had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 and 56 catches for 914 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010. In his 2^nd year in the offense, he could surpass 900 yards or even 1000 yards again. I’d say he’s the 3^rd most talented tight end in the league behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham when you consider what he can do as both a receiver and a blocker, but he doesn’t always play like it.

The 49ers also use a lot of 2-tight end sets with Delanie Walker, an underrated part of this offense. With an improved Vernon Davis and additions at wide receiver and running back, the 49ers’ offense should be slightly more explosive this season, but the decrease in efficiency that comes with an increase in turnovers should counteract that and then some.

Grade: C+

Offensive line

Alex Smith’s breakout year last year is even more amazing when you consider that this offensive line played pretty poorly. Smith was actually the most sacked quarterback in the league last year. Several teams allowed more sacks than the 49ers’ 44, but, as you can expect, most of the other team’s quarterbacks got injured so Smith actually led the league in sacks taken.

The biggest problem, at least in pass protection, is right tackle Anthony Davis. Davis has allowed 21 sacks in his first 2 years in the league combined and probably would not be starting anymore if he wasn’t the 11^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. If he struggles again this year, even that won’t be enough to save his job and he would likely either be cut or resigned at a reduced salary in either a backup role or at another position. Jim Harbaugh has shown no loyalty to disappointments drafted by Mike Singletary, sending Taylor Mays to the Cincinnati Bengals for a pack of peanuts last offseason.

There was some speculation that Davis could even be moved to another position this offseason, namely right guard. This is because the 49ers lost starting right guard Adam Snyder in free agency. Snyder wasn’t very good anyway. He finished the 2011 regular season with a -24.4 rating on ProFootballFocus, good for 3^rd worst at his position, struggling in both pass protection (2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures) and run blocking. He also committed 4 penalties.

Adam Boone, a 2009 undrafted free agent who went undrafted for character reasons, rather than lack of talent, is penciled in as the starting right guard, though he’ll face competition from 4^th round rookie Joe Looney and 2011 5^th round pick Daniel Kilgore, who has also seen snaps at center this offseason. Boone is unproven and a natural offensive tackle, but he probably won’t be worse than Snyder was last year so this could end up being addition by subtraction for the 49ers, though it’s still hardly a position of strength.

The left side of the offensive line is better. Joe Staley is the definition of average at left tackle. He didn’t deserve to go to the Pro Bowl last year, but he shouldn’t be benched or anything. He graded out with a -1.7 on ProFootballFocus and ranked slightly above average in run blocking and slightly below average in pass protection, allowing 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, 21 quarterback pressures, and committing 6 penalties.

Next to him is left guard Mike Iupati. Iupati hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as the 17^th overall pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, but he was regarded as raw coming out and he hasn’t played poorly or anything. His +9.6 rating was good for 11^th among guards on ProFootballFocus last season. Now in his 3^rd year in the league, he could easily end up a Pro Bowler.

He’ll play next to Jonathan Goodwin, a decent, but declining talent who turns 34 in December. He could have a decline this season that would offset Iupati’s improvement, but interior linemen do age well, so he could have yet another solid season. He scored a -3.4 on ProFootballFocus last year. If he struggles, he’ll be pushed by 2011 5^th round pick Daniel Kilgore, a converted guard who the organization is fairly high on. As a group, they’ll probably rank towards the bottom of the league in sacks allowed last season, though they could improve on last season. Fortunately, they ranked 7^th on ProFootballFocus as a unit in run blocking, which should continue this season.

Grade: B-

Defense

As much as a lack of turnovers was the story offensively, a large amount of forced turnovers were the story defensively. And as is the case with giveaways, takeaways can fluctuate on a yearly basis even if a team’s talent level hasn’t actually changed. Since 2002, 35 teams have had 35 or more takeaways in a season (the 49ers had 38 last year). On average, those teams have had 10.58 fewer takeaways the next year and won 2.00 fewer games, with only 6 surpassing their win total from the year before.

That’s not the only reason I expect the 49ers to be worse defensively this year. Yes, they return 11 starters, assuming franchise player Dashon Goldson signs. However, they were so good last year and it’ll almost be impossible for them to recreate, especially since so many players had the best seasons of their career. NaVorro Bowman, Ray McDonald, Dashon Goldson, Carlos Rogers, Aldon Smith, Tarell Brown and Ahmad Brooks all had breakout years, while Justin Smith, Isaac Sopoaga, and Donte Whitner each had arguably the best season of their careers. The only player who didn’t have a breakout or career year was Patrick Willis, who is awesome no matter what. If a few of those guys don’t do that again, it’ll be noticeable.

They also had minimal injuries defensively. Patrick Willis missed a few games, but aside from that, they had all 11 starters on the field all year. That almost never happens. They don’t have very much proven depth at all. Basically, everything went right for the 49ers’ defense last year. They got all the turnovers, had breakout years, and didn’t get hurt. If that doesn’t happen again, they won’t play as well.

Defensive line

Justin Smith made a legitimate case for defensive player of the year last year. His 47.5 rating on ProFootballFocus was 2^nd only to Von Miller and if you include playoffs, no defense player had a higher rating than him. He had 7 sacks, 14 quarterback hits, and 48 quarterback pressures, while grading out well above average against the run. Last year was arguably the best season of his career, but it’s not like he’s been bad other years. He’s a very, very good player and the only issue is his age, 33 in September.

While Smith graded out first among 3-4 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus, his bookend Ray McDonald graded out 3^rd, seemingly coming out of nowhere. It was a little head scratching when the 49ers resigned him to a fairly large deal last offseason, even though he had never been a starter, but that move is looking genius right now. Unlike Smith, however, he is still a one year wonder and he’s a candidate to be one of the players who has an inferior season in 2012.

Smith and McDonald combine with nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga to make what looks, on paper, like one of the best defensive lines in the league. Sopoaga also had his best year last year, with a 5.5 rating. As is a theme throughout the defense, depth is lacking and unproven. Ricky Jean-Francois is their top backup both inside and out. He played pretty well in 275 snaps last year (173 inside and 102 outside), but has never been a starter.

Grade: A

Linebackers

As good as their defensive line is, their linebackers might be equally good or even better, at least on paper. Patrick Willis needs no explanation. He was a Pro Bowler without Jim Harbaugh and he’s still one with him. He missed a few games last year, but Larry Grant played admirably in his absence. Grant might be their best reserve so middle linebacker is one spot where they don’t lack depth.

On the outside, Aldon Smith made a strong case for rookie of the year last year. He had 15 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures in a part time role, despite only playing 506 snaps. He’ll be an every down player this year, but considering he still managed nearly as many pass rush attempts as an every down player (355 of his 506 snaps were rushing the passer), I can’t see his pass rush totals going up much as his pass rushing ratio (a sack/hit/pressure on 18.0% of plays) appears unsustainable by any football player. He’ll need to improve as a run stopper and in coverage if he wants to take the next step as a football player.

Parys Haralson, who split time with Smith last season, will be their top reserve this season. He’s solid in coverage and against the run, but offers almost no pass rush. If either of the starting outside linebackers go down with an injury, their pass rush will suffer. Aside from Smith, Haralson, and Ahmad Brooks, no outside linebacker played a snap for them last season. Brooks will start opposite Smith. He finally put everything together last year after flashing talent for the past few years. He had 6 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 37 quarterback pressures.

Grade: A

Secondary

While the front 7 for the 49ers is amazing and probably the best in the league, the secondary is not nearly as talented and their strong play last season was in large part due to their front 7’s strong play in front of them. Carlos Rogers, a former 1^st round pick bust, signed a one year deal with the cornerback needy 49ers last offseason and immediately stepped up as their #1 cornerback, allowing 56 completions on 106 attempts for 761 yards (7.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 8 penalties, and 2 penalties, ranking 9^th at his position with a 9.4. However, he’s a one year wonder on the wrong side of 30 who just got a significant contract. He could easily have a down year this year.

Opposite him, Tarell Brown is a marginal starter who surprised in his 1^st year as a starter last year. He’s young so he could continue improving this year, but at the same time, he could regress as well. In the nickel, 2011 3^rd round pick Chris Culliver beat criticism that he was a tweener and that the 49ers reached for him and emerged as a solid slot cornerback. They also signed Perrish Cox for added depth. He’s young and impressing in camp, but missed all of last season with legal problems and struggled mightily the last time he was a starter, back when he was with the Broncos.

At safety, the 49ers expect to have Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner. Goldson is, as of this writing, an unsigned franchise player, but there have been no indications that they won’t come to terms with him on some sort of deal before Training Camp. Goldson made the Pro Bowl last year on the strength of 6 interceptions and he’s also above average against the run. However, he was frequently torched in coverage, allowing 29 completions on 43 attempts (67.4%) for 458 yards (10.7 YPA), 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 2 deflections, and 4 penalties.

His interceptions can largely be credited to the front 7 creating consistent pressure. He’s not good in coverage, but he’s opportunistic and has good ball skills. However, as I’ve already mentioned, turnovers can vary yearly for no apparent reason. Whitner, meanwhile, is also poor in coverage and good against the run. There’s been some rumors that CJ Spillman, who barely played last year, will platoon with Whitner this season and come in during obvious passing situations. Spillman is their top reserve after they lost Reggie Smith and Madieu Williams this offseason and while he’s impressing in camp, he played just 14 snaps last year so he’s hardly proven depth.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Not much explanation needed here. Harbaugh rebuilt Stanford’s football program, turning them from 1 win in 2006 to a perennial BCS bowl contender in 4 years and then won the NFL’s Head Coach of the Year Award last year, taking a perennial non-playoff team to the NFC Championship game and turning Alex Smith from a bust into a legitimate starting quarterback. He hasn’t been in the league very long, but he’s clearly one of the best.

Grade: A

Overall

Veteran quarterback in his 9^th year in the NFL, with more interceptions than touchdowns in his career to this point and an offensive genius Head Coach, leads team to 13 wins and a 2 seed on the strength of his 18 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and 3366 passing yards, the league’s 3^rd ranked scoring defense, and a +18 turnover differential (34 takeaways, 16 giveaways). After a bye, he knocks off a recent Super Bowl winning quarterback in the 2^nd round before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in the Conference Championship.

Guess who?

…

Jake Plummer.

Plummer and the Broncos went 8-8 the following season. Because of the variability of turnovers on a yearly basis, I expect the 49ers to be worse both offensively and defensively this year. Their +28 turnover ratio is not replicable and turnovers have a direct relation with wins. Since 2002, teams with 35 or takeaways have had had 10.58 fewer takeaways and 2 fewer wins in their next season. Teams with 35 or more had 27.5 in their next season and teams with 20 or fewer had 25.8 in their next season.

On the flip side, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games the following season. The teams who’ve had 35 or more turnovers since 2002 have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 averaged by the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers.

Meanwhile, teams with differential of +15 have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Further proving that takeaways and turnovers vary on a yearly basis is the fact that the teams with differentials higher than +15 and teams with differential lower than -15 have almost the same differential in their next season, a difference of .7. The 49ers probably won’t come close to the record +28 turnover differential they had last year and that will show this year.

They also have much tougher schedule. They have to go to New Orleans, New England, and Green Bay and should consider themselves lucky to go 1-2 in those games. They have an easy divisional schedule, but it’s very tough to run the table in a division. They didn’t even do that last year. Expect 4 or 5 wins in the division, which basically puts them at 5-4 in the division/3 tough road games. They’ll have to go 5-2 in their other 7 games to even get double digits wins.

Their other 7 games home for Detroit, at Minnesota, at NY Jets (1 PM ET start), home for Buffalo, home for the Giants, home for Chicago. That’s not the toughest schedule, but it’s not an easy one either. As I said, every year since 2003, one team goes from a 1^st round bye to out of the playoffs, which means that one of New England, Green Bay, Baltimore, and San Francisco will almost definitely not make the playoffs. San Francisco is certainly a candidate. They’re also a candidate to be this year’s plummeter, a team that wins 6+ fewer games than the year before.

There are other reasons to believe they’ll be both a faller (from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs) and a plummeter (win 6+ fewer games). For one, they were part of the 5 in last year. Since 2003, teams that make the playoffs after having previously missed the playoffs actually fail to make the playoffs 62.5% of the time the following season. For reference, any given team has a 62.5% chance of missing the playoffs in a given year as only 12 of 32 make the playoffs.

Since 2003, of the 16 teams who have gone from out of the playoffs to a 1st round bye, 7 did the opposite thing the following season. Those teams also won, on average, -3.2 fewer games the following year. Meanwhile, teams that win 6+ more games than the year before win, on average, 3.88 fewer games the following season. So many things have to go right for a team to improve by that much and so many things have to go wrong for a team to get that much worse.

Last year, San Francisco had a record +28 turnover differential, which we’ve proven is both unsustainable and unpredictable on a yearly basis. They only had one defensive starter (Patrick Willis) miss any games defensively. They also had career years from 10 of 11 defensive starters (exception: Patrick Willis). If their turnover differential goes towards zero, and a few guys on defense miss significant time, and several guys regress defensively (all totally reasonable things), this team could easily miss the playoffs and win 6+ fewer games.

Projection: 7-9 2nd in NFC West

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New York Giants 2012 NFL Season Preview

June 30, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Giants

Offense

Last year, the New York Giants won the Super Bowl. However, can you argue that they were the worst regular season team to ever win the Super Bowl. They were the first team to win the Super Bowl despite single digit wins (9) and they even had a negative points differential (-6), one of only 2 playoff teams last season to have one (Denver). They barely made the playoffs and had to win their final 2 games to do so.

At 7-7 heading into week 16, it said far more likely that Tom Coughlin would be fired than that he would win his 2^nd Super Bowl. In fact, had Miles Austin not dropped a wide open touchdown in the Giants/Cowboys week 14 clash, the Giants wouldn’t have even made the playoffs. You can say the same thing about a borderline “gave himself up” call in the Giants’ game against the Cardinals earlier in the season that led to a Victor Cruz touchdown.

Of course, in the playoffs, everything changed. Eli turned into ELIte, throwing to a great group of receivers, their running game finally got going after ranking dead last in the regular season, and they got just enough guys back from injury defensively that their amazing pass rush was able to shine. Some think they have turned a corner and are now the elite team that they weren’t during the regular season, as the Packers did after winning the Super Bowl the season before.

I disagree. I think this was just a team that got hot at the right time, as they did the last time they won the Super Bowl. They didn’t turn the corner and become an elite team last time. Sure, they went 12-4 in the 2008 season, the season after winning the Super Bowl, but their Super Bowl was followed by 4 straight seasons without a playoff win. It wasn’t like the Packers setting the world on fire and going 15-1 last year. They’ve proven countless times that they are not an elite team, just an above average team that can get hot at the right time. I think they’ll more closely resemble the above average team they were last year in the regular season, and in the regular seasons previous, than the elite team that won the Super Bowl last postseason.

In a loaded NFC and a loaded NFC East, that could be trouble. No defending Super Bowl champion has won a playoff game since the Patriots won back to back Super Bowls in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. I don’t think the Giants are going to be the ones to break that streak. In fact, considering they barely made the playoffs last year, and that they’re in an improved division overall (Eagles ended last year really well, Cowboys upgraded their secondary, Redskins got RGIII), they might not make the playoffs at all this season. Every year, 5 teams that made the playoffs the year before miss the playoffs the following season. The Giants could easily be one of the 5 out this season.

Quarterback

Eli Manning had an amazing season last year. He threw for 4933 yards in the regular season and played extremely well in the playoffs, carrying the team in a way he had never done before. He definitely proved himself to be an elite quarterback. However, after the Giants won the Super Bowl, I still argued I’d rather have Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, or Drew Brees because of their consistent excellence.

Eli was on their level last year, but before last year, his career high in yards was 4021. Before last year, he might not even have been a top-10 quarterback. I need to see him do it once more before I’ll put him in that top, top tier with the 3 guys just mentioned (for the record, brother Peyton is in that tier too if fully healthy). Still, the Giants are in very, very good hands with Eli. He’s at worst the 4^th best quarterback in the league and you can do a lot, lot worse than that.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

The Giants have always been a good running team, so it was a real surprise when they ranked dead last in yards (1427) and YPC (3.5) last season. That’s why Eli carried this team in ways he had never before. He didn’t really have a great running game to lean on. In the postseason, they got things together, a big part of why they were able to win it all.

The Giants return starter Ahmad Bradshaw, but they lost Brandon Jacobs and while his replacement David Wilson, their 1^st round pick, is much more talented than the aged Jacobs, he isn’t the short yardage bruiser that Jacobs was. They could miss that. To replace Jacobs as a short yardage back, the Giants have had DJ Ware bulk up from around 225 pounds to 240 this offseason. He’ll see very limited work in specialized situations.

Bradshaw and Wilson, meanwhile, are very, very similar football players. In fact, in my scouting report of Wilson, I actually gave him a Bradshaw comparison, this of course being before the Giants took him. For that reason, I actually didn’t like the Wilson selection because you typically want complimentary players in a running back tandem. Still, Wilson is a talented back who will help their running game get back on track.

After rushing for 1235 yards on 278 carries in 2010 (4.5 YPC), Bradshaw rushed for 659 yards on 171 carries (3.9 YPC) last season thanks, in large part, to injuries, which caused him to miss 4 games and be limited in several others. Bradshaw has hardly been the picture of good health in the past in his career, aside from the 2010 season, so Wilson will come in handy as they attempt to get back to being a good running football team.

Grade: B

Wide receivers

Eli Manning was definitely helped out by a great receiving corps last season, led by the trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham. In the Super Bowl, Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick told his defense to make Manningham be the one to have to beat them. That backfired as he did with an amazing catch against the sideline on what would eventually be the game winning touchdown drive late in the 4^th quarter.

Manningham is gone, after signing in San Francisco, but Manningham actually only had 39 catches for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns as their 3^rd receiver last year so it’s not like he’s irreplaceable. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz were the key guys as they had 76/1192/7 and 82/1536/9 respectively and both are back this season.

Nicks is the more sure thing between the two as he was a highly ranked prospect coming out of college and has two years of great production as opposed to just one for Victor Cruz, who came out of literally nowhere to finish 3^rd in the league in receiving and pace the team in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns last year. Nicks was the better receiver of the two in the playoffs, with 28 catches for 444 yards and 4 touchdowns, as opposed to 21 catches for 269 yards and 1 touchdown for Cruz. Barring any further setbacks with his foot injury (he should be good for week 1), I expect Nicks to lead the team in receiving this year, though don’t count out the Giants having two 1000 yard receivers once again.

The 3^rd receiver this year is expected to be Rueben Randle as he fills in for Manningham. Like Manningham, Randle will play outside opposite Nicks in 3-wide receiver sets, with Cruz playing in the slot where he’s most dangerous. Randle will compete with veterans Domenik Hikon and Ramses Barden, as well as 2011 3^rd round pick Jerrel Jernigan, but the Giants used a 2^nd round pick on Randle in this past 2012 NFL Draft and considering he was seen as a steal there and one of the draft’s most NFL ready receivers, he should win that job.

Tight end, however, could be a problem for the Giants this year. Their Super Bowl victory was not without losses as they lost both Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum to torn ACLs. Those were their top 2 tight ends at an already thin position. Ballard was not expected to be able to play at all this season, so they cut him. He was then claimed on waivers by none other than the New England Patriots, which pissed off Head Coach Tom Coughlin. Beckum, meanwhile, might be able to play at some point this year but he’s pretty unproven with 26 career catches.

With those two out, the Giants signed Martellus Bennett and used a 4^th round pick on Adrien Robinson. When they signed Bennett, I thought there was some real upside with him. Bennett was underutilized as a receiver in Dallas behind Jason Witten, but was talented enough as a receiver to go in the 2^nd round in 2008 and he’s one of the league’s best blocking tight ends. On top of that, Manning has always gotten the most out of mediocre receivers like Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard at tight end before. However, Bennett showed up to camp at 291 pounds and while he insists that’s all muscle, that won’t help him separate from defenders. Robinson, meanwhile, is an athletic freak and a strong blocker, but he caught just 12 passes in his senior season at Cincinnati last year so the 2012 4th round pick is a major project who won’t contribute much this season.

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Offensive line

The offensive line was absolutely miserable for the Giants last year. I’m amazed they managed to win the Super Bowl in spite of it because they didn’t really get much better in the playoffs. Eli Manning was only sacked 28 times, but that’s because he, like his brother, gets the football out very quickly (he was sacked 11 times in 4 playoff games on top of that though). They were ProFootballFocus’ worst rated pass blocking offensive line and 4^th worst rated run blocking offensive line. In the playoffs and regular season combined, they allowed 250 quarterback pressures. On 840 pass plays, that’s one every 3.4 pass attempts.

Their worst offensive lineman was David Diehl. Diehl played 10 games at left guard and 6 games at left tackle and managed to rank among the worst at the position at both. As a tackle, he ranked 64^th out of 76 with a -22.0 (in 6 games), allowing 4 sacks, 6 quarterback pressures, and 20 quarterback pressures, while committing 2 penalties. In 10 games at guard, he ranked 76^th out of 77 with a -26.1, allowing 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 28 quarterback pressures, while committing 3 penalties. Including playoffs, in 20 games, he allowed 13 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, 61 quarterback pressures, and committed 6 penalties. His -58.1 overall rating was the worst among any player at any position.

Diehl has been moved to right tackle this season. He’ll compete with James Brewer, their 2011 4^th round pick, for the right to start there and he might move back to left guard and start there if he can’t win the right tackle job. Diehl and Brewer are competing for Kareem McKenzie’s old job. McKenzie was almost as bad as Diehl, allowing 9 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, 58 quarterback pressures, and committing 4 penalties in 20 games at right tackle. He, not surprisingly, remains unsigned on the open market as of this writing and may have to retire at 33 years of age.

Things were better aside from Diehl and McKenzie, but still not great. Chris Snee was their right guard once again, allowing 6 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, good for a -18.7 rating in 20 games. He’ll start there once again. Opposite him, Kevin Boothe is penciled in as the starting left guard with Diehl at right tackle, though he could lose his job to Diehl if Diehl can’t win the right tackle job. Boothe played all over the line last season, including center, and had a -19.0 rating overall with 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, 21 quarterback pressures, and 2 penalties, though he was a putrid run blocker. The Giants would still be better off with Boothe as their starting left guard and Diehl serving Boothe’s old role as a versatile 6^th offensive lineman.

When healthy, David Baas played center last year. A natural guard, Baas looked out of position at center last year, as he too graded out well below average with a -11.3 rating. He allowed 3 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures. Some expected them to take a natural center like Peter Konz in the 1^st round and move Baas to guard, but they didn’t do that. In fact, they didn’t put much emphasis on the offensive line at all in the draft, which was surprising considering how poorly they played last season. They used a 4^th round pick on the versatile Brandon Mosley and a 6^th round pick on the raw, but athletic Matt McCants, but neither will have much of an impact this season. At best, they’re going to be their 7^th and 8^th offensive linemen.

The only offensive lineman who wasn’t absolutely miserable for the Giants upfront last season was William Beatty, who was actually pretty average with a -1.2 rating. The left tackle allowed 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures in limited action, but he had trouble staying healthy. That’s been an issue for him throughout his career. A full season of him on the left side will really help, but if he can’t stay healthy, they’ll probably use Diehl there, which would be a nightmare again. Giants fans can hope Beatty stays healthy all year and that Brewer plays well in his 1^st year as a starter and that some other veterans bounce back or maybe even that a rookie steps up, but overall things are really bleak in front of Eli Manning. The offensive line could also stifle their talented running backs once again.

Grade: C

Defense

The Giants had major issues at linebacker and with injuries in their secondary, but their pass rush was so good that no one really noticed, especially not in the postseason when their defense was just as big a part of why they won it all than Eli Manning and the offense. Heading into 2012, the Giants have a healthier secondary and added some talent at linebacker behind their amazing defensive line.

Defensive line

The Giants get after the quarterback like no one quite can. Postseason included, they had 59 sacks, 64 quarterback hits, and 211 quarterback pressures. They frequently went with 4 defensive ends on the defensive line with Jason Pierre Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Dave Tollefson, with their #4 defensive end Tollefson actually playing 575 snaps on the season (including postseason). Meanwhile, linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka blitzed more than almost any 4-3 linebacker in the league, doing so 328 times, as opposed to 251 times where he dropped into coverage.

Tollefson is gone, but he actually played horribly. He graded out with a -20.5 overall and managed just 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 355 pass rush snaps (5.6%). Converted linebacker Adrian Tracy (a defensive end in college) may take his old role or the Giants could use Kiwanuka, who has been a defensive end before in the NFL, on the defensive line more often in 2012.

Jason Pierre Paul was their leader with a 39.1 rating, producing 17 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 39 quarterback pressures on 736 pass rush snaps (9.8%). He also played the run better than every defensive end except 3 and graded out 6^th overall. No other defensive end had ratings of 15+ as both a pass rusher and a run stuffer and he also batted down 10 passes, something that bothered Tom Brady a lot in the Super Bowl. He’s incredibly well rounded.

Justin Tuck wasn’t quite as good as JPP, but he spent most of the 1^st half of the season injured and really caught fire late in the year in the playoffs. Tuck was ProFootballFocus’ 9^th ranked defensive end in 2010 so if he’s healthy this year, the Giants’ pass rush will be near impossible to stop even in base packages with JPP and Tuck lined up outside opposite each other.

Umenyiora and Tollefson would line up on the defensive line along with those two in sub packages. I already mentioned Tollefson’s struggles, but he’s gone. Umenyiora, meanwhile, is back after getting a pay raise this offseason. Umenyiora has been complaining about not being a starter and about his contract for years, but an extra 2-3 million dollars seems to have shut him up, definitely a good thing because of how talented he is. He’s terrible against the run (which is why he’s no longer a starter), but he had 13 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures on 382 pass rush snaps, which gave him a 12.8% rate that actually led the team.

At defensive tackle, the Giants also have two talented defensive lineman who can get to the quarterback. They don’t play much in sub packages, but Chris Canty and Linval Joseph graded out with a 9.8 and a 8.1 respectively and while they were above average both against the run and as pass rushers, they were both better as pass rushers. Canty had 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 22 quarterback pressures, while Joseph had 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures.

Rocky Bernard was their top reserve last year and he was just resigned. He’ll compete with 2011 2^nd round pick Marvin Austin, who missed last year with injury, and free agent acquisition Shaun Rogers for positioning on the depth chart and he might not even make the roster. He was solid last year though, but there’s definitely more upside with Austin. However, anyway you look at it, this is an incredible defensive line that might be even better this year with a healthy Tuck and the addition of Austin. In my opinion, this is the top defensive line in the league.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Things aren’t nearly as good in the back 7, but good defenses are built in the trenches. I’ve already mentioned Mathias Kiwanuka. He’s their most talented linebacker. Not only is he a good blitzer, but he also was the 5^th rated 4-3 outside linebacker against the run. He’s terrible in coverage as a former defensive lineman, but they don’t ask him to do that much. Overall, he had a 10.3 rating last year, but, as I’ve mentioned, he may play more defensive lineman this year.

The Giants traded for Keith Rivers to provide depth both inside and outside. He didn’t play at all for the Bengals last year with a wrist injury, but he was a solid starter before last year and he can help in coverage. He’ll also compete for the starting middle linebacker job with Chase Blackburn. Backups Greg Jones and Mark Herzlich will also be in that competition. Jones was a 6^th round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, while Herzlich was undrafted, but the team is high on both of them.

Blackburn is currently the favorite for the starting middle linebacker job. He played well down the stretch last year and even had a game changing interception of Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, but there’s a reason why he was available in November. He’s a career journeyman and a mediocre talent who could easily struggle if counted on to start this year. Luckily, they have other options should that happen, but not anyone that great. Rounding out the linebacking group is Michael Boley, an average starter who graded out as such on ProFootballFocus with a -0.4. Like Kiwanuka, he is terrible in coverage.

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Cornerbacks

The Giants had tons of injuries in the secondary last year as it seemed like they had a different defensive back go on IR every week. The two most prominent injuries were to Terrell Thomas and Prince Amukamara. Thomas was supposed to be a starter, but missed the entire season with a torn ACL. The 27 year old is talented and the Giants don’t seem too worried about his long term future as they guaranteed him 11 million this offseason as a free agent, but he was missed last year. Amukamara, meanwhile, struggled with injuries all year after being selected 19^th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Thomas, barring any setbacks injury wise, will start opposite Corey Webster. Aaron Ross, who started in place of Thomas, is gone, but he wasn’t that good and Thomas, when healthy, is much better. In 2010, Thomas had a -1.4 rating and a 12.8 rating in 2009. Webster, meanwhile, was above average with a 4.9 rating last year. Neither of those two are #1 shutdown cornerbacks and the Giants ranked just 13^th against the pass in 2010 with 6.8 YPA with Webster and Thomas as the starters, but it’s better than the 22^nd (7.5 YPA) they ranked in 2011 without Thomas. With the awesome play of their defensive line, they should be average to above average against the pass in 2011.

Behind those two starters, Prince Amukmara should be the 3^rd cornerback in his 2^nd year in the league. He’ll hopefully have better health. The Giants also added Jayron Hosley in the 3^rd round of the 2012 NFL Draft and he could be their 4^th cornerback. At safety, Kenny Phillips is one of the most underrated players in the league while Antrel Rolle is one of the most overrated.

Phillips was their best rated defensive back with a 9.6. Meanwhile, Rolle had a -21.5 rating on the season, including a -19.8 at safety, worst at his position. That was largely because of his struggles in coverage as he allowed 73 catches on 99 attempts (73.7%) for 841 yards (8.5 YPA), 4 touchdowns, 2 interception, 1 deflection, and 4 penalties.

He’s a versatile player who can play both safety spots and lined up on the slot at times last year when they really needed cornerback depth, but he’s incredibly poor in coverage and has been for years. With improved depth at cornerback, he can focus more on being just a safety. Because of this, their #3 safety won’t see quite as much action as the 1125 snaps that Deon Grant saw last year, but they do like to use 3 safeties often so their new #3 safety, 2011 6^th round pick Tyler Sash, will see the field quite often.

All in all, they should do reasonably well against the pass this year. Thanks in large part to their front 4’s play, they should rank at least in the middle of the pack against the pass. They ranked 23^rd against the run with 4.5 YPC allowed, thanks in large part to poor linebacker play, but I expect them to be improved slightly in that aspect this year given all of their talent on the defensive line. Overall, their scoring defense was 25^th with 25.0 points per game allowed. They should be a little better than that this year, but not nearly the 14.0 points per game they allowed in the postseason. This is still far from a top-10 defense.

Head Coach

It’s funny how things work out. Tom Coughlin might have been fired had the Giants missed the playoffs last year, but now with 2 Super Bowl rings, he might have job security for life. He’s 66 in August, the oldest Head Coach in the league, but he says he wants to coach into his early 70s and he’s certainly one of the league’s better ones. I wouldn’t have disagreed with him being fired had they missed the playoffs last year because he would have only won a playoff game in 1 of his 8 seasons and because of how poorly his teams do in the 2^nd half of seasons (47-17 in the 1^st half, 27-37 in the 2^nd half). However, now you have to respect the two rings. One might be a fluke, but you can’t say two is.

Grade: A-

Overall

People might think they turned the corner as a team after how they played in the postseason last year, but Eli Manning is 31. He’s not some unproven, untapped potential like Aaron Rodgers was. If you look at his career, the two Super Bowl runs are the flukes. Since the start of the 2005 season, he’s averaged 9.7 wins per season and only has won playoff games in 2 of 7 seasons. This year, I think we’ll see the Giants resemble the above average team they normally are and not the elite team they were late last season. They have too many holes.

Unfortunately, they play in a stacked division. Philadelphia is incredibly talented and finally put it all together in the final 4 weeks of last season. They look poised to win the division. Washington added Robert Griffin to what was already an at least decent supporting cast and could be a real sleeper team this year as every year one team who previously had 5 or fewer wins makes the playoffs. Even Dallas, as much as they are perennial disappointments, upgraded their biggest weakness, their secondary, in a big way with arguably the free agent market’s top cornerback and the draft’s top cornerback in Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne respectively.

They won 9 games last year, which could have easily been 7 or 8. They had a negative points differential. They play in a tough conference, a stacked division, have a tough schedule and the entire league gunning for them as defending Super Bowl Champions. My prediction is that the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants will MISS THE PLAYOFFS this year.

Take a look at the schedule. In a tough division, they’ll be lucky to get 4-2 and will probably end up with 3-3 or 2-4. I mean they were barely 3-3 last year. Outside of the division, they host Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New Orleans. Tampa Bay and Cleveland should be fairly easy, but Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New Orleans will all be very tough. They should get about 3-2 out of those 5 games, which leaves them at 6-5 or so through the 11 games mentioned so far. Their remaining 5 games send them to Carolina, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Baltimore. Carolina and Cincinnati are easier, but San Francisco and Baltimore are both tough places to win and Atlanta rarely loses at home. They could definitely go 8-8 or 9-7.

Their schedule is actually set up for them to have one of their patented late season collapses as the easier games are in the 1^st half of the schedule. They started out at home for Dallas and Tampa Bay, go to Carolina and Philadelphia, then return for Cleveland, go to San Francisco, then host Washington, and go to Dallas. The 2^nd half, meanwhile, features Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and New Orleans, as well as trips to Atlanta and Baltimore, and another game against Philadelphia. The only really tough games in the 1^st half of their schedule are a trip to Philadelphia and a trip to San Francisco. This could be another 6-2/2-6 or so 1^st half/2^nd half split for them.

Projection: 8-8 2nd in NFC East

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Philadelphia Eagles 2012 NFL Season Preview

June 27, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Eagles

Offense

Dream Team (Vince Young’s voice). Those 2 words might have been more damaging to the Eagles than anything else, as weird as it may sounds. They came into 2011 with massive expectations, yet failed to make the playoffs thanks to a 4-8 start. Everything that could have possibly gone wrong did go wrong. Lack of talent at linebacker made their new wide 9 scheme incredibly weak against the run. New defensive coordinator Juan Castillo was clueless as to how to get the most out of a talented secondary. Offensively, the Eagles turned the ball over 38 times, good for 2^nd most in the NFL. The Eagles also went 2-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer.

The good news for the Eagles, they finished last season on an impressive 4-0 run and turned into the team that no one wanted to have to face in the playoffs, outscoring teams 125-46 over that stretch. Juan Castillo made adjustments defensively that should carry into this season, when they will have a more talented bunch defensively, especially at linebacker.

Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002.

Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. This year, they may be even more talented. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a 1^st round bye, since 2003. The Eagles are definitely a candidate to do so, even in a tough NFC. They’re certainly plenty talented.

Quarterback

Believe or not, Michael Vick might be what’s keeping this team from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Despite having a ton of offensive supporting talent, he completed just 59.8% of his passes and just 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. He’s always capable of the big play, as shown by his 7.8 YPA, and Andy Reid has made him look better than he is over the past two seasons. However, he’s only once gone over 60% completion, only twice gone over 7.2 YPA, and only once had a TD:INT ratio of 2:1 or higher in his career. He’s also fumble prone.

Of course, he’s known for his rushing ability, and he’s a major threat on the ground, but he just turned 32 years old and, as you can see with running backs and wide receivers, that’s around the age when athletic abilities start to decline steadily. Given his reliance on his legs, not just to pick up yards on the ground, but to open things up in the passing game, he might not age very well.

He’s not a bad quarterback at all. I just think he’s always been overrated. He’s only ever won 2 playoff games in his career and he’s now going into his 10^th season. One other major problem with him is that he’s never out there for all 16 games, only doing so once in his career. He’s missed 7 games in the last 2 seasons and you have to figure he’ll miss another 2 or 3 this year.

In his absence, Mike Kafka is the favorite to start. Kafka is unproven and hasn’t really impressed much in limited action since being drafted in the 4^th round in 2010. He’s 11 for 16 for 107 yards, no touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his career. He spent this offseason trying to improve his arm strength and he’s reportedly been wowing in offseason practice, so we’ll have to see. Eagles fans shouldn’t feel comfortable with Kafka likely having to start a couple games, which is why I think the Eagles should trade for a proven guy like Colt McCoy, before Training Camp.

Grade: B

Running Backs

One great thing Michael Vick has done for the Eagles has been how he’s opened things up for LeSean McCoy, as defenses have to fear Vick taking off himself. In the last 2 seasons, McCoy has carried the ball 375 times for 1954 yards (5.2 YPC) and 21 touchdowns in 24 games with Michael Vick and 105 times for 435 yards (4.1) and 3 touchdowns in 6 games without him. This isn’t to say McCoy isn’t talented. He really is. But there’s no denying that having a healthy Michael Vick under center helps McCoy, the way Vince Young helped Chris Johnson in Tennessee and Tim Tebow helped Willis McGahee last season in Denver.

On to McCoy himself, he got a 45 million dollar extension over 5 years this offseason and deserves every penny of it. He’s got the potential to be like Brian Westbrook, only healthier and maybe even more talented. He’s so good that he even makes Andy Reid actually run the football. In addition to what he does on the ground, he’s caught 116 passes for 907 yards and 5 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He’s the whole package.

If you can nitpick the Eagles’ running backs at all, it’s their depth. As is often the case with a team that has a legitimate feature back, they have minimal depth behind him, because it’s not really needed, so if injuries strike, they could be in trouble. If anything were to happen to McCoy, they would likely split carries between Dion Lewis and Chris Polk. Lewis was a 5^th round pick in 2011, while Polk was an undrafted free agent this year, though it was a major surprise when he fell out of the draft. The Eagles reportedly had a 4^th round grade on him. Lewis, meanwhile, rushed for 102 yards on 23 carries last year in one start when McCoy was out last year, but he’s still not a proven commodity.

Grade: A

Wide receivers

The Eagles have two incredibly talented wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, but neither managed 1000 yards last year for different reasons. Jackson was unhappy with his contract situation all year and he let it affect him on the field. Now that he’s been paid, that shouldn’t be a problem, though it’s worth noting that he is a pretty mercurial player so it could be something else bothering him this year and affecting his game.

Maclin, meanwhile, dealt with injury problems all year. He got off to a slow start because he missed a lot of time in the offseason with a mysterious illness and then once he finally got going again, he got hurt, missed 3 games and was less than 100% for several others. However, both were still close to 1000 yards, with 961 for Jackson and 859 for Maclin.

Jackson has a pair of 1000 yard seasons in his career and while Maclin doesn’t have one, he was on pace for one last season before missing 3 games even with all of the problems he was having. He’s having a very strong offseason, with Eagles coaches going as far as to name him as someone who could make his 1^st Pro Bowl this year. Maclin and Jackson could easily both have 1000 yard seasons.

Their depth at the position is very good as well. Jason Avant is one of the best slot receivers in the league with 52 catches for 679 yards and a touchdown last season, after 51/573/1 in 2010 and 41/587/3 in 2009. Riley Cooper had 13 catches for 240 yards and 1 touchdown in 3 starts in place of Maclin last year, solid stats, but he could be pushed for the #4 job in Training Camp by 6^th round rookie Marvin McNutt, widely considered a steal in the 6^th round. McNutt is having a strong offseason reportedly.

Tight end Brent Celek is a good pass catcher as well. After a down year in 2010, Celek caught 62 passes for 811 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. Some of that production increase has to do with the struggles of the receivers on the outside, but he likely won’t repeat the mere 42 catches for 511 yards and 4 touchdowns he had in 2010. Due to struggles on the offensive line, Celek had to stay back and block more than usual in 2010, which he won’t have to do anymore now that their offensive line has been improved (more on that later). Remember, he did have 76 catches for 971 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2009, so he should have another strong year.

Add in LeSean McCoy’s pass catching abilities and Michael Vick has tons of weapons around him. That’s why I say Vick is what’s holding them back a little bit. He’s a solid quarterback, but if they had a true top-10 quarterback, this would be an offense almost on the level of the Packers or Patriots or Saints or Lions. Still, they have an above average offense. I’ll go into more detail on that after I talk about their offensive line, another strong group.

Grade: A

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Offensive line

I mentioned the Eagles had a very poor offensive line in 2010, but that’s not the case anymore. Why? Well, they added a few players, but the biggest difference between 2010 and 2011 was the scheme and the coaching of legendary offensive line coach Howard Mudd. In 2010, they allowed 49 sacks. In 2011, they allowed 32 and they were ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd ranked run blocking team. There were 3 additions upfront between 2010 and 2011, but they were hardly proven players before they came to Mudd’s system.

The biggest example of that was left guard Evan Mathis. Mathis was a relative no name in the 2010 offseason. He was signed to a 1 million dollar contract over 1 year by the Eagles after 22 starts in his career in Cincinnati as a borderline starter. However, he ended up being ProFootballFocus’ top rated guard last season with a 34.6 rating.

This offseason he was in much more demand as a free agent before resigning with the Eagles for 25 million over 5 years. He doesn’t have the cleanest injury history in the past and he’s a one year wonder, but with Howard Mudd as the offensive line coach, he should have a very good year once again, barring a major injury.

Their other two additions up front last offseason were two rookies, Jason Kelce and Danny Watkins. Neither one had nearly as good of a season as Mathis. Watkins graded out with a -8.4, while Kelce graded out with a -14.6, worst among all centers in the league. Watkins was a 1^st round pick in 2011 so he could definitely bounce back this year. Kelce, meanwhile, was thought much more lowly going in the 6^th round so he might not bounce back. Center could be a position of need for the Eagles this offseason.

On the outside, the Eagles had two returning players from the 2010 season and both were much, much better with Mudd. Todd Herremans really impressed in his first season at right tackle, after spending most of his career at guard. Protecting the left handed Vick’s blindside, Herremans graded out with a 2.4 rating, with 4 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, 37 quarterback pressures, and 7 penalties.

The biggest single improvement on the offensive line from 2010 to 2011 was Jason Peters. Peters, a very overrated player in Buffalo, had really struggled in his 1^st couple of years in Philadelphia after the Eagles gave up a 1^st round pick for him in the 2009 NFL Draft. However, last year, he finally made good on his upside and athletic gifts, grading out as the top offensive tackle overall with a 27.6 rating. He allowed just 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, 17 quarterback pressures, and committed 7 penalties.

Unfortunately, Peters tore his Achilles this offseason. He will miss the entirety of the 2012 season, a major, major loss for the Eagles. They signed Demetress Bell (once Demetrius Bell), who was one of the top offensive tackles available this offseason, but it was a weak offensive tackle free agent class so that doesn’t mean much. He’s a very talented player when healthy, but he has missed 8 or more games 3 in of his 4 seasons in the NFL.

In 401 snaps (roughly 6 ½ games) last season, he allowed just 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 7 quarterback pressures on the blindside at left tackle in Buffalo, which is very impressive. Now in Mudd’s system, he could have a very good season, but that’s assuming he can stay healthy. If he can’t, King Dunlap, would play at left tackle. Mudd is a very good offensive line coach (in case you couldn’t tell from me saying that like 12 times), but he’s not a miracle worker so they’re probably in trouble if Dunlap has to play a lot.

I know the left side isn’t the blindside in Philadelphia with Michael Vick, but it will still be a position of weakness. Besides, Vick always seems to miss a few games and Mike Kafka is right handed. If Bell and Vick miss the same game, Kafka will have his blindside protected by King Dunlap, which won’t help an already unproven and inexperienced quarterback. All this being said, they have a very solid group up front and (for the 15^th time) they’ll very well coached.

They ranked 8^th in points per game last year with 24.8 points per game last year and that was despite down years from Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson and despite 38 turnovers, a number that should be lower this season. Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, and Detroit all averaged 29.6 or more points per game last year, but no one else averaged more than 25.4. The Eagles, who averaged 24.8 points per game last year, could average in the 26 range this year. They could easily have a borderline top-5 offense this year, but they aren’t that top 4 level because they lack an elite quarterback.

Grade: B+

Defense

While they ranked 8^th offensively last year, they also ranked 10^th defensively allowing 20.5 points per game. They had a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense last year even with everything going wrong. With better luck, this is a very good team. The talent is there. Defensively, they should be even better this season.

Juan Castillo was in his 1^st season as defensive coordinator last year, after spending his entire career working with the offensive line. He was in over his head for most of the season, but figured things out later in the season. In their final 4 games, they allowed just 11.5 points per game, thanks to schematic changes which I’ll get into later. They also have a very good defensive line coach in Jim Washburn, part of the reason why they had 50 sacks last year, tied for most in the league, including 17 in their final 4 games.

Defensive line

I mentioned the 50 sacks. They have plenty of talent, but as is the case with Howard Mudd on the offensive side, you need to mention Jim Washburn when you talk about this defensive line. He’s had success everywhere he’s gone and no one else has used the wide 9 scheme as effectively as him. They could even have more sacks this season.

They used a 1^st round pick on Fletcher Cox and a 2^nd round pick on Vinny Curry, two good rush passers who are good fits for their scheme. Both should have situational roles this season. They also have Brandon Graham coming back from injury. The 13^th overall pick in 2010, Graham hasn’t done much so far in his career thanks to injuries and weight issues, but he’s reportedly having a very good offseason and given that he could be cut with another bad year, it appears the light is finally on with him.

Those 3 players will be all good rotational players, but it starts with their starters, obviously, even though they use so much rotation. Their pass rush starts outside with defensive ends Jason Babin and Trent Cole. Babin and Cole combined for 29 sacks on their own last season, by far the most of any teammates. In fact, that was more sacks than the Titans or Buccaneers had as an entire team last season and the same amount that the Bills, Packers, Colts, and Chiefs had.

Babin was a 1^st round pick bust going into the 2010 season, but Jim Washburn has turned him into one of the best pass rushers in the league. In Tennessee in 2010, where Washburn was the defensive line coach, Babin had 12.5 sacks and last year he had 18 sacks. He also had 12 quarterback hits and 37 quarterback pressures on 427 pass rushes (15.7%). He might not be quite that good this season, but he’s still a very good pass rusher and an incredible fit in Jim Washburn’s scheme so he should have another very strong season.

Cole, meanwhile, has been good with and without Washburn in his career. He’s not a big name, but he’s one of the most underrated players in the league. He has 9+ sacks in each of the last 5 seasons and 10+ in 4 of the last 5 seasons. Over that time period, he has 55 sacks. In his last 6 seasons, he has 63 sacks. Last season, he had 11 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 44 quarterback pressures on 375 pass rush snaps. His 17.9% sack/hit/pressure rate was actually better than Babin’s. That was actually tops in the league last year and considering he ranks 7^th over the last 3 years with a 12.3% ratio, that’s not a fluke. For reference, Babin is 3^rd with a 12.6% ratio. This duo will be very productive again in 2011, barring injury.

They have another productive pass rusher at defensive tackle in Cullen Jenkins. Jenkins had 6 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures on 400 pass rush snaps, 9.8%. His 8.0% ratio is 4^th at his position over the last 3 years. The Eagles have 3 players who are among the best pass rushers at their respective positions and a defensive line coach who specializes at getting to the quarterback. They’ll have an amazing pass rush once again this season.

The 4^th starter on the defensive line is Mike Patterson. Patterson had a good season last year as well. It wasn’t on the level of Babin, Cole, or Jenkins, but he finished with a 7.0 rating, especially impressive since it looked like he might not play at all after having a seizure in Training Camp. He had brain surgery this offseason to remove an AVM, but he should be ready for Training Camp. He’s a tough guy and a good player.

Their top reserve at defensive tackle last year was Derek Landri, a very underrated player. Landri, despite only playing 355 snaps, graded out with a whopping 22.0 rating on ProFootballFocus. He was very good against the run and had 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 190 pass rush snaps (10.5%). Jenkins, Patterson, Cox, and Landri will rotate at defensive tackle, while Babin, Cole, Curry, and Graham will do the same at defensive end. There’s talent everywhere and they’ll have one of, if not the best pass rushes in the league because of it.

One thing this defense line was weak against last year was the run. They ranked 19^th with 4.4 YPC allowed. The wide 9 scheme is weak against the run naturally, but the addition of Fletcher Cox should help. They also got better against the run as the season went on. In addition, they added talent at linebacker this offseason, a major position of weakness last season, which will also help against the run.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The biggest addition at linebacker this offseason was DeMeco Ryans. Ryans was never a good fit in Houston’s 3-4 last season so they traded him to Philadelphia. Back in a 4-3, he should regain his Pro Bowl form. He missed 10 games with injury in 2010, but in 2009, his last full season in a 4-3, he had a 7.9 rating and in 2008 he had a 9.9. That’s the type of play the Eagles can expect from him this year, which makes him one of the better middle linebackers in the league. That’ll be much better than the Jamar Chaney/Casey Matthews combo they had there last year. Both of those two had ratings below -10.

Another new starter in the linebacking corps is 2^nd round rookie Mychal Kendricks. He may just be a rookie, but he too should be an upgrade. The only returning starter in the bunch is Jamar Chaney, who is expected to beat out incumbent Brian Rolle on the weak side. That will be Chaney’s 3^rd different position in his 3 year career. He had a -10.0 rating last year at strong side and middle linebacker, but he was a little bit better as a rookie. Still, he should be the weak link of the linebacking group. Overall, this is an upgraded group over last season.

Grade: B-

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Defensive backs

Cornerback could technically be seen as upgraded group over last season as well. Yes, they lost Asante Samuel, one of the top coverage cornerbacks in the league last year. However, Nnamdi Asomugha, who managed a -7.2 rating last year, played much better down the stretch last season once Castillo stopped using him as a zone coverage cornerback. He’s much better in man coverage so he could have a bounce back year this year. I don’t need to tell you how important that would be to this defense as he’s one of the best cover cornerbacks in the league when he’s right.

Opposite him, Dominique Rodgers Cromartie will move into the starting lineup in place of Asante Samuel. Cromartie was miscast in the slot last year and he’s a much better fit on the outside. He should be able to play pretty well on the outside this year, especially since he’ll be motivated in a contract year. When motivated, he can be an above average cornerback. He was a Pro Bowler in 2009. The motivation has just always been lacking since, in part because he’s been on some bad teams. On a better team, in a contract year, he could have a strong year.

On the slot, two more natural fits will compete for the job. Joselio Hanson will compete with 4^th round rookie Brandon Boykin. Boykin was a steal in the 4^th round and could have gone in the 1^st or 2^nd round if he wasn’t 5-9. His lack of height won’t be nearly as big of a deal in the slot and he has very good pure coverage abilities. Hanson, meanwhile, played alright as their 4^th cornerback last year. Either way, their cornerbacks make more sense this season. There aren’t any guys playing out of place, even if the loss of Asante Samuel hurts talent wise. Besides, this team was 1^st against the pass in the last 4 games last season. Their amazing pass rush obviously helps.

Things are a little bleaker at safety, but they could be better than last year. Nate Allen will be one starter. The 2010 2^nd round pick struggled last year thanks to injuries, but he’s better now and could have a breakout year in his 3^rd year in the league. Meanwhile, at the other safety spot, 2011 2^nd round pick Jaiquawn Jarrett lost his starting job last year as a rookie to veteran Kurt Coleman. Coleman will probably start the season as the starter this year, unless Jarrett has an amazing camp. He’s a pretty mediocre player though, so they’ll really be hoping Jarrett can step up. That being said, they have a good secondary on what should be a good defense overall. They were 10^th last year and should be improved this year with added talent and better things going on schematically.

Grade: B

Head Coach

People like to make fun of him because of his weight and his weaknesses in timeout and clock management, but Andy Reid is one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL, even if everyone is always calling for him to be fired. Reid is 126-81 in his career and is the longest tenured Head Coach in the NFL. He’s only had 2 losing seasons in 12 years.

He made Donovan McNabb look better than he was for years. It’s no coincidence McNabb’s career fell off a cliff once the Eagles traded him. Now, he’s making Michael Vick look like a better passer than he is. Meanwhile, he’s made AJ Feeley and Kevin Kolb look enticing enough that teams gave away 2^nd round picks for the two backups, only to watch them struggle in their new homes.

Reid has always had very good assistant coaches and this year is no different. I’ve already gone on and on about Howard Mudd and Jim Washburn, but they really are among the best position coaches in the NFL. Juan Castillo is no Jim Johnson defensively, but he seemed to finally figure things out late last year. Before that, he was a good offensive line coach, which is why Reid kept him on staff, albeit in a different and possibly head scratching role.

Grade: A-

Overall

Every year since 2003, one team goes from out of the playoffs to having a 1^st round bye. The Eagles seem to be a natural fit as that team this year. Even last year, with everything going wrong, they finished the season on a 4 game winning streak, had a strong points differential, had a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense, and were the one team that everyone hoped wouldn’t make the playoffs because they could have done some real damage.

With likely fewer turnovers this year and better luck in close games, the Eagles should improve this year. They should also play up to their talent level, which they didn’t do last year. They made some additions and might be even more talented than the so called Dream Team they were last year. 12 or so wins and a 1^st round bye is not a stretch at all.

Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29) and 9^th best overall. They played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Add 1.61 wins as they regress to the norm turnovers wise and you get an 11-12 win team. This year, they may be even more talented than that.

They certainly have a tough division and 6 tough divisional games, but very good teams beat good teams and I think the Eagles are the best team in this division. They could easily go 4-2 or 5-1 in that tough division. Outside the division, they host Baltimore, Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, and Cincinnati. Carolina and Cincinnati are easier games and while those other 3 are tough, the Eagles can still go 2-1 in those 3 games, given that they’re at home and really talented. They also go to Cleveland, Arizona, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. Pittsburgh and New Orleans will be tough games, but those other 3 are very, very winnable. 12-4 is definitely in reach for this very talented team.

Projection: 12-4 1^st in NFC East

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Seattle Seahawks 2012 NFL Season Preview

June 21, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Seahawks

Offense

The Seahawks made a valiant run at the playoffs in 2011, getting eliminated week 16 in a close loss to San Francisco, finishing 7-9 for the 2^nd year in a row. They still can take pride in the fact that they exceeded expectations and played better than the parts of the whole under Head Coach Pete Carroll. They actually finished with a positive point differential +6, 2^nd in the division, on the strength of their 7^th ranked scoring defense. Now in 2012, the Seahawks will have to improve their offense, while maintaining their strength on defense, if they expect to compete in a loaded NFC.

Quarterback

The Seahawks may be better by default offensively this year. They ranked 23^rd in the league offensively last year with 20.1 points per game. There are several questions offensively for the Seahawks, namely who will start at quarterback and which injured players will be able to contribute. However, whoever their quarterback is, he probably won’t be as bad as Tarvaris Jackson was last year. Jackson wasn’t awful, leading a 20^th ranked passing offense, in terms of YPA, but he was a big part of the reason why their offense was so stagnant last year. Jackson will compete with free agent acquisition Matt Flynn and 3^rd round rookie Russell Wilson for the starting job.

The Seahawks are saying it is an open competition and it probably is, but Matt Flynn is fully expected to win the starting job, based off of his strong offseason performance thus far and the 10 million dollar guaranteed they give him in free agency. Flynn only has 2 career starts, but he impressed in both of them. If he does struggle, the Seahawks can always go back to Tarvaris Jackson or even Russell Wilson. Either way, I don’t think they’ll have worse quarterback play than last year.

Quarterback: B-

Offensive line

The other main unknown for the Seahawks offensively is injuries. Last year, the unit hit hardest by injuries was the offensive line. Of their week 1 starting 5 upfront, only center Max Unger did not sustain a major injury. Left guard Robert Gallery missed most of the season with injuries and, at his advanced age, was cut this offseason. Meanwhile right tackle James Carpenter missed most of his rookie year last year with a knee injury. He’s still currently injured and will likely begin the season on the PUP and might not play at all this season. He struggled when he did play too, but he was just a rookie.

Replacing those two will be Paul McQuistan and Breno Giacomini at left guard and right tackle respectively. Neither played that great. Giacomini allowed just 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, but committed 9 penalties in 564 snaps. Meanwhile, McQuistan allowed 5 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties in 689 snaps. Both graded out below average as run blockers on ProFootballFocus as well. Sadly, those two might have been the biggest bright spots on an offensive front that allowed 50 sacks last year.

That number will go way down if Russell Okung can play a full 16 game slate at 100%. The 6^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, Okung has played very well when healthy and can be a legitimate franchise left tackle, but he’s dealt with multiple different injuries in his first 2 years in the league. Okung should be good to go for week 1 barring any further injuries.

The same is true about John Moffitt, their right guard. A 2011 3^rd round pick, Moffitt also dealt with injuries as a rookie. He played very poorly as a rookie as well, when healthy, allowing 3 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, 16 quarterback pressures, and committing 2 penalties in 524 snaps. He also graded out very poorly as a run blocker and only 5 guards graded out lower than he did overall, -21.5, on ProFootballFocus, including ex-teammate Robert Gallery. However, he was just a rookie.

The only starter to make it through the season was Max Unger, an average center who ranked 17^th on ProFootballFocus with a 3.3 rating. Like the quarterback position, the offensive line was a major part of why the Seahawks struggled offensively last year, but they should be better by default after allowing 50 sacks last year, thanks to lots of injuries at upfront. If Okung can stay healthy and Moffitt can improve off a poor rookie year and the newcomers can play well, this might actually be a decent offensive line.

Grade: C+

Wide receivers

Another place where injuries struck big time in 2011 was wide receiver. The Seahawks signed Sidney Rice to start opposite Mike Williams, who had a great 2010 season. Rice was coming off an injury plagued season, but his strong performance in 2009 still was enough to land him a big deal with the Seahawks. However, Rice remained injury plagued in 2011 and Mike Williams joined him. They are both penciled in as their 2 starting receivers right now, but neither are sure things to be out there week 1 and it would be pretty shocking if both made it through a 16 game slate.

If they get hurt, they’ll need two young receivers, Golden Tate, 2010 2^nd round pick, and Ricardo Lockette, a 2011 undrafted round pick, to step up. They also have veteran Ben Obomanu in the mix, but he’s not very good. Meanwhile, Doug Baldwin led the team in receiving last year as an undrafted free agent, the first undrafted free agent to do so ever. If Rice and Williams can’t stay healthy, he could do so once again. He’s a solid slot receiver.

In his first season with Seattle, after spending the beginning of his career in Oakland, Zach Miller really struggled, catching just 25 passes for 233 yards and no touchdowns. The Seahawks brought in Kellen Winslow from Tampa Bay to compliment him. Winslow has a repuation for being injury prone and he is, but he’s also played in every game over the last 3 seasons. He’s always been willing to play hurt and he does a good job. Barring some sort of injury that actually keeps him off the field, he’ll be an addition to a wide receiving corps with questions everywhere.

Grade: C

Running backs

With mediocrity at quarterback and injuries depleting their receiving corps and offensive line, it’s a wonder how the Seattle even managed to rank 23^rd offensively last year. The answer is their running game. Marshawn Lynch delivered big time in a contract year and the Seahawks paid him handsomely this offseason to reward him. Lynch was inconsistent in his career before last year so he’ll need to prove he can do it when money isn’t on the line this year. An improved offensive line will really help.

He’ll be backed up by Leon Washington, but Robert Turbin, their 4^th round pick, is an intriguing player. He’s a good enough blocker to spell Lynch on passing downs and he’s a good pass catcher as well. If Lynch goes down with any sort of injury, he’d likely be the lead back because Washington is too small to be anything more than a change of pace back effectively. Washington will also need to focus on special teams.

As bad as the Seahawks’ offense looks on paper, they most likely won’t be worse than they were last year unless Lynch has a major dropoff. Pete Carroll is a very good coach who gets the most out of his players. I believe in Matt Flynn, at least as an upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson, and that they won’t have as many injuries as they had last year. With a good defense, this team can definitely win some games this season.

Grade: B+

Defense

As I said, defense was the reason this team won 7 games last year. Their offense had all sorts of problems, but their 7^th ranked scoring defense allowed them to go 7-9, compete until the end of the season, and post a positive scoring differential. They’re not often mentioned among the best in the league, but they should be.

Defensive line

As with most good defenses, it starts up front for the Seahawks. Their defensive line doesn’t get a ton of pass rush, hence their mere 33 sacks from a year ago, but they stuff the run with the best of them. Their 3.8 yards per carry allowed were tied for 4^th best in the league. Their run defense starts with 3 players, Brandon Mebane, Alan Branch, and Red Bryant, all three of whom scored well above average against the run on ProFootballFocus (5.9, 19.2, and 9.0 respectively). Branch’s 19.2 was actually 3^rd at his position behind Sione Pouha and Brodrick Bunkley.

Unfortunately, since none of them do much as pass rushers, they don’t get to the quarterback very much in their base package, but they don’t spend a lot of time in their base package. They like to mix things up. Last year, Raheem Brock was their nickel rusher at defensive end, coming in for Red Bryant. Once a solid pass rusher, Brock was a shell of his former self last season at an advanced age. He had 3 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures on 567 snaps last season.

The Seahawks used a 1^st round pick on Bruce Irvin to take Brock’s place this season and whether or not you think that selection was a reach, you have to agree that he’s an upgrade over Brock, who remains unsigned as of this writing. On passing downs, Irvin will form an imposing duo with Chris Clemons on the outside so they should improve on the 33 sacks they had last year, assuming Chris Clemons can produce close to the amount he has over the last two years.

Clemons has combined for 24 sacks, 18 quarterback hits, and 97 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons, all of which are among the league leaders over that time period, but he’s now 31 and currently holding out, as of this writing. If he holds out well into Training Camp or the Preseason, he could be in less than tip top shape when he returns, a la Chris Johnson and Darrelle Revis, which would be dangerous for a player already on the wrong side of 30. However, if he can stay in good shape, I see no reason why he can’t have another strong year. He’s not that old yet and players can play well into their early 30s if they can stay in shape. It’s when they don’t that’s the problem.

Another reason they should improve their pass rush is the addition of Jason Jones. Jones will be a nickel rusher on the inside and he could be potentially dangerous. He was miscast as a defensive end in Tennessee last year. He graded out as one of ProFootballFocus’ worst defensive ends last year, with 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures (recording a sack/hit/pressure on only 5.5% of pass rushing snaps). Only Jayme Mitchell had a worse pass rusher rating at his position than Jones’ -9.6.

However, he was awesome as a defensive tackle in 2010, with 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures (a sack/hit/pressure on 9.1% of his snaps). His 17.3 pass rush rating was 1^st among defensive tackles. He could have a big impact this season and, at the very least, he’ll be an upgrade over Clinton McDonald, who was their 3^rd defensive tackle last year.

McDonald was solid against the run, but offered absolutely no pass rush with 0 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures (a sack/hit/pressure on 6.0% of his snaps). He’ll still play a bit of a role this season, but it will be minimal, as it should be, with the addition of Jones. With the addition of Jones and Irvin, their pass rush should be able to be solid rushing the passer, in addition to strong against the run.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The Seahawks only major offseason loss this year was David Hawthorne. Hawthorne was an every down middle linebacker for them last season. He graded out with an 8.9 rating and got a well deserved significant contract from the New Orleans Saints this offseason. He’ll be replaced by a platoon of Barrett Rudd and 2^nd round rookie Bobby Wagner. Ruud used to be a good player, but injuries have destroyed his career. He was benched midseason by the Titans last year and his -13.6 rating ranked 4^th worst at his position. Their best hope at that position is that Wagner can breakout and become an every down player.

Outside, things are much better. KJ Wright (6.6) and LeRoy Hill (5.6) graded out well above average. Hill has a lot of troubles off the field, but he’s a solid football player on the field. Wright, meanwhile, impressed a lot as a rookie, despite being mere a 4^th round pick. He took over midseason and only played 536 snaps. Now a full time starter, he has just as good of a chance of taking the next step as a football player as he does of having a sophomore slump.

Grade: B

Secondary

The secondary is Seattle’s most talented bunch. They ranked tied 10^th against the pass, allowing 6.9 YPA, despite their subpar pass rush. With a better pass rush in 2012, their pass defense should be even better. Their only concern is that some of the players that had breakout years last year regress. If they don’t, they have one of the most talented, young secondaries in the league.

Richard Sherman was a 5^th round pick last year, but he played incredibly well as a rookie. He graded out 13^th at his position with an 8.1, allowing 39 completions on 84 attempts (46.4%) for 493 yards (5.9 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and 9 deflections. His only issue was 9 penalties, but for someone in only his 3^rd season as a cornerback (he played cornerback for just 2 years at Stanford after being converted from a wide receiver), the sky is the limit for someone who got better as last season went on.

Two other talented defensive backs are their safeties, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. 1^st and 5^th round picks respectively in the 2010 NFL Draft, they are arguably the most talented safety duo in the NFL. Both graded out top 8 among safeties last year, Chancellor coming in 5^th with an 11.5 rating and Thomas coming in 8^th with a 7.6 rating. Thomas had a strong rookie year in 2010 as well so I don’t have any concerns with him, but Chancellor’s break out year was last year so he’s still a bit of a one year wonder. However, Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor form arguably the most talented defensive back trio in the NFL and all 3 are still very young.

The 4^th starter in the secondary is Brandon Browner. Browner had a lot of good and a lot of bad in his 1^st season in the NFL after coming over from the CFL. He graded out exactly with a 0.0 rating, allowing 54 completions on 95 attempts (56.8%), but for 830 yards (8.7 YPA). He had 3 touchdowns allowed, 6 interceptions, and 15 deflections, good for 3^rd in the league, but his 15 penalties were 2^nd. He was often torched and often penalized, but he made a lot of plays on the ball and allowed a small amount of touchdowns and a 56.8% completion percentage. It’s tough to know what to expect from him in his 2^nd season as a starter, but there’s definitely upside.

The Seahawks didn’t have nearly as many injuries on defense as they had on offense, but one major one was an injury to Marcus Trufant, who was supposed to start for them at cornerback and probably be their #1 guy opposite a then unproven Brandon Browner. Trufant has never been a great cornerback, but his absence did hurt last season as they struggled for depth behind Sherman and Browner. Walter Thurmond and Roy Lewis both saw far too many snaps for comfort last season in sub packages and both, expectedly, graded out below average. Trufant is heading into his age 32 season, but should be an upgrade in nickel packages as their 3^rd cornerback.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

Pete Carroll doesn’t get his name mentioned enough with the best coaches in the NFL, but he should, especially when you look at the talent he’s developed in Seattle over his first two years. Chris Clemons was a situational player who he turned into one of the better pass rushers in the league. Alan Branch was a former 2^nd round pick bust in Arizona who is now one of the league’s best run stuffers.

KJ Wright and Richard Sherman were 4^th and 5^th round picks last year respectively, but now both are among the best at their positive. Brandon Browner was in the CFL. He got Marshawn Lynch for a 4^th round pick. Kam Chancellor was a 5^th round pick. He did a great job of holding together a team, which had below average talent on paper in the first place, through numerous injuries last year. He also did a fantastic job at the collegiate level at USC.

Grade: A-

Overall

As I’ve said before, the Seahawks have a lot of questions offensively, but they can’t be worse than they were last year offensively. Kellen Winslow is an addition to their receiving corps and a healthy Russell Okung and John Moffitt will help a lot up front, especially Okung. Either Rice or Williams could stay healthy, unlikely last year, and if not, Golden Tate or Ricardo Lockette could step up in his absence. Paul McQuistan and Breno Giacomini could also end up being upgrades up front.

Matt Flynn won’t be worse than Tarvaris Jackson and could be a lot better. He’ll have to be for them to have even an average offense and they’ll need Marshawn Lynch to continue his strong play behind a better offensive line in 2012, but their strong defense is what will continue to win them games this season. They went 7-9 last year with a positive points differential. They could easily go 7-9 or 8-8 again this year.

They don’t have a tough divisional schedule and could easily go 3-3 in those games again or even 4-2. Outside the division, they host Dallas, Green Bay, New England, Minnesota, and the Jets. They probably won’t have much of a shot against Green Bay or New England, as good as they are at home, but that Minnesota game should be a fairly easy win. They could also beat both Dallas and the Jets. Let’s say 2 or 3 wins in this bunch, which puts them at about 6-5 over the 11 games mentioned so far. Their remaining games are @ Miami, @ Buffalo, @ Detroit, @ Chicago, and @ Carolina. They aren’t a great road team, but that Miami game should be pretty winnable and maybe another one so 7 or 8 wins is pretty reasonable for them.

Update: I don’t like the decision to start Russell Wilson. For more than that, click here.

Projection: 6-10 3rd in NFC West

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2012 NFL Season Previews

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