2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Packers

This is one of three rematch games this week. It has several obvious differences from Baltimore/Denver and New England/Houston. Both of those games were blowouts. Both of those games were fairly recent. These two teams played way back in week 1 and San Francisco won 30-22. And both of those games are once again expected to be blowouts, as the line on both is huge. This might be the most intriguing game of the weekend.

Because these two teams played so long ago, it’s tough to extrapolate what happened in that game to this one. Green Bay probably was healthier then as they’ve lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga to injury since, but they’re now the healthiest they’ve been in a long while with all 4 of their top receivers healthy at once, as well as defensive keys Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. In spite of injuries, they have still won 10 of their last 12, including 2 over playoff qualifying Minnesota and an impressive blowout in Houston. Because of all their injuries this season, they’re a deeper team than they were earlier in the year. Key players like Randall Cobb, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward barely played in the week 1 matchup.

San Francisco is also less healthy than they were week 1. Justin Smith tore his triceps against New England and they’ve really missed him. Justin, not Aldon, is the most irreplaceable defensive player on the 49ers’ defense. He’s the one who draws all the double teams, giving Aldon lots of one on one opportunities, where he’s close to unstoppable.

Among all the top pass rushers in the league, no one saw single blocking as often as Aldon Smith. However, he struggled when he was the one doubled in Justin’s absence, failing to record a single sack. It’s no coincidence that the Patriots scored 34 in the 2nd half against their defense after scoring just 3 in the first half. Justin Smith left early in the 2nd half of that game. They then went on to be blown out by the Seahawks the following week, before struggling against Arizona week 17, allowing the what was just the Cardinals’ 3rd passing touchdown since week 5.

Smith returns this week, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be. He’s a very tough player, but some doctors opined that his injury would take 12 weeks to heal and it’s barely been 4. Of course, because his greatest value is taking on double teams, if the Packers still fear him enough to double team him, his presence in the lineup will be valuable, even as a decoy. If they choose to make Justin prove it first, the 49ers could be in real trouble defensively with their center piece playing hurt. It’s a question mark, but the situation obviously favors the Packers and their elite offense.

The Packers may have an elite offense, but their defense certainly didn’t look elite against the 49ers week 1, allowing the 49ers to score 30 points and Alex Smith to complete 20 of 26 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. Colin Kaepernick is an upgrade over him, but I wouldn’t be so sure he’ll exceed those numbers or even match them. Smith didn’t make many tough throws. The Packers blew coverages all game, something they didn’t really do the rest of the season. In fact, they were the NFL’s 11th ranked scoring defense and 8th ranked passing defense this season. They may have just not been taking the 49ers seriously in what was clearly a statement game for the 49ers.

They should present Kaepernick with a tough matchup, especially at home in his first NFL start. Quarterbacks are just 4-10 ATS as home favorite making their postseason debut since 2002. If their defense were at full strength, they definitely would have the supporting cast to overcome that, but I don’t know about Smith. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are three quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings in a postseason where 8 quarterbacks came in without a single playoff win. I think they have a tremendous advantage over everyone else and I fully expect them to make up 3 of the NFL’s final 4. Kaepernick’s inexperience will definitely favor the Packers.

I also think the Packers’ playing last week favors them. Momentum is huge in the playoffs. They have it, just like they did in 2010. In 2011, they came into the playoffs with Rodgers having just 1 win in his last 3 games (he didn’t play week 17) and then he sat another week. This year, I think they’re in a much better position for a deep playoff run.

There are some trends that also favor the Packers. Teams are 52-27 ATS as road dogs since 2002 trying to avenge a same season home loss as favorites. Going off that, Aaron Rodgers is 13-6 ATS as a dog in his career. He’s also only lost to the same team twice in the same season in his career, winning 3 of 4 same season revenge games, ironically losing twice to Brett Favre and the Vikings in 2009. I really like the Packers in this one. I thought about dropping the units because Green Bay is a publicly backed underdog, but I decided against it because I think it’s with good reason. Green Bay is my pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (-110) 5 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Both the Patriots and Broncos are both around 9.5 point favorites against the Texans and Ravens respectively. Both teams blew out their current opponent late in the same season. I took the points with the Texans because I thought the line was too big, but I’m not going to do the same thing here for several reasons. The Texans and Patriots play a same site rematch. Non-divisional teams are 26-12 ATS in a same site revenge game since 1989, but 14-20 ATS when the site is different.

Plus, unlike when the Texans and Patriots played the first time, it wasn’t a complete blowout. It might sound counterintuitive, but the bigger the regular season blowout, the more likely a team covers in the rematch, especially in the playoffs. This is because it creates an added motivational edge for the team who got blown and it typically skews the line heavily in favor of the favorite based off just one game.

Going off that, I don’t think the Texans’ play in New England was indicative of the type of team they are. They just had a very bad game. The Ravens, meanwhile, were just as bad as they looked in a 34-17 home loss to the Broncos. They went 10-6 and could have easily gone 8-8 if not for Ben Roethlisberger’s injury (or even Byron Leftwich’s injury) and Ray Rice’s ridiculous 4th and 29 conversion. They had a ridiculous 5 wins by 3 or fewer points. They only outgained opponents by 25 yards this season and, coming into the playoffs, they hadn’t beaten a single playoff team since losing Lardarius Webb early in the season (0-4).

Last week, Ray Lewis returned and they beat Indianapolis, but what Lewis adds to this team at this point in his career is mostly intangible (the Ravens still struggles against the run last week) and Indianapolis was the worst team in the playoffs, with just 3 wins against teams with a .500 or better record and two wins by more than a touchdown. And Indianapolis was still only outgained by 20.

Now they have to go to Denver and play a significantly better team than them who beat them by 17 in a result that should have surprised no one (that’s the difference, the Houston blowout loss was a surprise at the time because they’re a better team than Baltimore). And that was in Baltimore. Now they have to go to Denver and play in the high altitude, where the Broncos lost just once this season.

The Ravens aren’t a very good road team anyway. Despite outscoring teams by an average of 10.9 points per game at home over the last 2 seasons, they are being outscored by -0.7 points per game on the road. Joe Flacco’s statistics are the most noticeable difference. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions at home. On the road, he’s completed 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. As a result, they average 28.7 points per game at home and 19.0 per game on the road during that time period.

I think Denver is a little overrated. People like to completely dismiss their first 5 games because Peyton Manning was still getting into form, which makes some sense, but if you do that, they’ve only played two .500 teams all season. I don’t think they’re the Super Bowl favorite and I question how they’ll match up with someone like the Patriots or an NFC team in the Super Bowl. However, they should be able to get a blowout here. During their 11 game winning streak, none of the games were really even close and as easy as the schedule was, Baltimore isn’t much better. They’re also overrated and were blown out at home against the Broncos earlier this year. Denver is the pick, however obvious it might seem.

Denver Broncos 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Denver -9.5 (-110) 2 units

Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Patriots, Texans

The Patriots blew out the Texans in Foxborough a few weeks ago so they’ll definitely blow them out again right? Well that seems to be what everyone thinks as, in spite of this ridiculous spread, the public is all over the Patriots. How ridiculous is this spread? Well, two weeks ago in the Patriots’ last game, they were favored by 10.5 over the Dolphins. Now they’re favored by 9.5 over the Texans? The Texans are 1 point better than the 7-9 Dolphins? Huh?

I love fading the public whenever it makes sense. The public always loses money in the long run. Odds makers are rich for a reason. Once again, I disagree with the public here. Just because the Patriots blew out the Texans last time, doesn’t mean they’ll do so again. This is a different game. In fact, the Texans may even have an edge because the Patriots might be overlooking the Texans a little bit here because of that game (and an impending showdown with the Broncos). Meanwhile, the Texans will use that as extra motivation.

Here’s an example: Boston sports writer Dan Shaughnessy joked that the Patriots were getting two bye weeks in a row, which Arian Foster turned into his Twitter avatar. Side note: I’m a Patriots fan, I was going to take Houston +9.5 anyway because it should be the right side, but when I found about what Shaughnessy said and Foster’s reaction to it, I was terrified (as a fan, for New England’s sake) because Shaughnessy always jinxes New England area sports teams. He’s not the only one. NBC’s Tony Dungy said that the Texans didn’t have a chance.

There’s a trend that sums the Texans revenge factor. Since 1989, teams are 8-4 ATS in the postseason trying to avenge a same season loss of 21 or more. The Patriots famously lost in this exact same situation a few years ago to the Jets. The Texans have the extra motivation. The Patriots might be overconfident. And this spread is out of control. Going off that trend, teams are 26-12 ATS in same season, same site, non-divisional revenge games since 1989.

The Patriots also tend to struggle as big favorites. They are 7-12 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown since 2010, including that Jets loss. That’s crazy considering they are 23-9 ATS in all other situations. Whenever they have big expectations and are expected to blow teams out, they tend to disappoint a little and play closer games. Brady is also 1-7 ATS in his last 8 postseason games and 3-8 ATS all-time as a favorite of 4.5 or more in the post-season. I’m not going to pick the Patriots to lose or anything (they are 15-4 SU as favorites of more than a touchdown since 2010), but this game will be close, closer than people think. I’ll gladly take the points.

New England Patriots 27 Houston Texans 23

Pick against spread: Houston +9.5 (-110) 3 units

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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Falcons, Seahawks

Note: I normally don’t do picks this early, but Chris Clemons is expected to be out with a torn ACL. Once news of that is confirmed, this line will go up from -2.5. I like the Falcons either way, but I like them a lot more at -2.5 than -4.5, so I’m going to get this one locked in before the line moves. And if Clemons doesn’t have a torn ACL, well I was going to make this pick anyway so it’s not a loss.

Allow me to save you some time and give you all the analysis you’ll hear on ESPN or any other major sports network shows: “Matt Ryan has never won a playoff game so he can’t possibly win this game BLAH BLAH BLAH.” That’s one of the stupidest arguments because it presumes you can tell from 3 games that a generally solid quarterback somehow becomes worse in the postseason than the regular season.

Peyton Manning, though obviously a better quarterback, was in a similar situation early in his career, losing his first 3 postseason games, before winning 2 in 2003 and taking his team to the AFC Championship. Eli Manning lost his first two before leading the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2007, winning 4 in the process. Two of Ryan’s three losses came against eventual Super Bowl champs and one came on the road as a rookie. And yet people still seem to think that he can’t possibly win this game because of what happened in those first 3 games.

Everyone in the media will probably be on the Seahawks this week and an early ESPN poll shows that the public is 2/3rds on the Seahawks. I don’t have public betting action yet, but I bet the public will be all over Seattle getting points. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run and this week is certainly no exception. I especially love fading them when they’re on a dog because that creates a slighted favorite and gives them even more motivation. The Bengals and Colts were popular upset picks this week. How’d that work out?

I’ve been down on the Falcons all season. I’ve frequently said that they’re not as good as their record because of a lot of close calls with inferior teams. I still think they will lose at home to either Green Bay or San Francisco. Those teams are different monsters. But, it’s almost like the Falcons have become underrated for being overrated, that people have called the Falcons “overrated” so many times that everyone has forgotten that they’re a good football team with a great home field advantage.

Matt Ryan is 32-6 at home in his career, while the Seahawks have lost in Miami, Arizona, St. Louis, and Detroit this year, had a close call in Carolina, went to overtime with Chicago, and trailed 14-0 in Washington just last week before Robert Griffin got hurt. And that’s what people are overlooking this week (as well as the impact of Chris Clemons’ loss, contrary to popular belief rookie Bruce Irvin can’t fill his shoes as an every down end).

While the Seahawks are 12-24 ATS as non-divisional road dogs since 2005, the Falcons are 14-6 ATS as non-divisional home favorites since 2008, only losing twice (once was against the Packers in the playoffs in 2010, but no one was stopping them that year). On top of that, the Seahawks have to play this game on the East Coast at 1 PM as a West Coast team, a huge disadvantage. I expect them to get another home win against a road challenged team and for Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons to use the criticism positively and get his first postseason win.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -2.5 (-110) 4 units