2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews

Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Bears

QB Jay Cutler (Chicago)

Jay Cutler only played in 10 games last year and had 13 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 2319 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3710 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. However, 3 good things happened for Cutler this offseason. They added his old #1 receiver Brandon Marshall to a receiving corps led in snaps played by Roy Williams, who is still unsigned. They also added Alshon Jeffery to that corps in the 2nd round.

Thirdly, Mike Martz is gone so Cutler will be moving to a scheme he fits better. Further helping him is that they brought his former quarterbacks coach from Denver. He should exceeded those extrapolated yards and touchdowns, but also those extrapolated interceptions, just because he has a career 3.4% interception percentage, roughly 17 every 500 throws.

Projection: 3820 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 150 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (239 pts standard/287 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Matt Forte (Chicago)

7/26/12: Forte has signed and will not hold out. He was on pace for a career high 2145 yards from scrimmage before getting hurt last year through 11 games and through 8, he was actually on pace for the 2nd most yards from scrimmage of all times. Michael Bush will steal some goal line carries, but when has he not had a back stealing goal line carries from him? Other than that, Bush will be a pure backup who will be lucky to get 1 carry for each of Forte’s 2. He’s a sneaky good value in the end of the 1st, beginning of the 2nd round in a year where good running backs are tough to find.

Like Ray Rice, there’s the threat of Forte holding out into Training Camp and becoming rusty. The Bears have also added Michael Bush through free agency so Forte should go back down to the 238 carries or so he had in 2010, rather than the 271 he was on pace for last season. Still, Forte is a top-10 back coming off of injury.

Projection: 250 carries 1150 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 60 catches 540 receiving yards (223 pts standard/283 pts PPR)

RB Michael Bush (Chicago)

Michael Bush is a backup and nothing else, just like Chester Taylor and Marion Barber before him. He’ll be lucky if he gets 1 carry to every one of Forte’s 2. This is all, of course, unless Forte holds out into the season or the Bears trade him. Stay tuned.

Projection: 110 carries 470 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 25 catches 200 receiving yards (97 pts standard/122 pts PPR)

WR Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

From 2007-2008 in Denver with Jay Cutler, Marshall had 102 catches for 1325 yards and 7 touchdowns and 104 catches for 1265 yards and 6 touchdowns. From 2010-2011 in Miami with crap at quarterback, Marshall had 86 catches for 1014 yards and 3 touchdowns and 81 catches for 1214 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now that he won’t face league discipline after an alleged off the field incident, he’s a player with good upside and minimal downside.

Projection: 95 catches 1200 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (162 pts standard/257 pts PPR)

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Green Bay Packers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay)

In his last 27 games, including the playoffs, Rodgers has thrown for 72 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and 7912 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 43 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 4689 yards. He’s also rushed for 1136 yards and 12 touchdowns in 4 years. Yeah, he’s the top fantasy quarterback. Your biggest concern with him if he’s your fantasy quarterback is that the Packers have such a good season that he doesn’t have to play weeks 16-17.

Projection: 4580 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (375 pts standard, 455 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Cedric Benson (Green Bay)

8/27/12: Cedric Benson is reportedly really impressing the Packers, to the point where James Starks might not even make the roster, in favor of a less injury prone, albeit less talented option like Brandon Saine. Benson will be the clear lead back on an explosive offense, albeit one that doesn’t run much, while Alex Green will serve solely as a change of pace back.

8/13/12: The Packers have signed Cedric Benson. He’ll get the opportunity to run behind a great offensive line and he’ll have plenty of room to run with the Packers’ passing game spreading things out. Heading into his age 30 season, he’s got little to no explosion, but he can run through holes and he should get the bulk of the Packers’ early down work as he was signed in response to James Starks’ disappointing Training Camp, preseason, and his recent turf toe injury. He’s also shown surprisingly durability with 956 touches over the past 3 seasons, 5th in the league over that time period behind only Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and Steven Jackson. On top of all that, he’ll get the goal line work on one of the league’s most explosive offenses. He’s the Packers’ running back to own.

Projection: 160 carries 720 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 20 catches 140 receiving yards (128 pts standard/148 pts PPR)

RB Alex Green (Green Bay)

8/13/12: Benson’s signing doesn’t hurt Green as much as it did Starks, as Green is a different kind of back, a speed, change of pace, passing catching back. However, a more crowded backfield is never a good thing for a back and it looks like Green’s role will be almost purely 3rd down and change of pace unless there are injuries.

8/7/12: Alex Green is finally healthy and impressing in Training Camp. He’ll be a change of pace back to James Starks, but Starks is oft injured. Green has the ability to pass catch and break off long runs and is a major sleeper. The only issue with him is he’s never had more than 146 carries in a season either in college or in the NFL and he’s coming off a torn ACL.

Green was actually the Packers 3rd round pick in 2011, but he missed all of last season with a torn ACL, an injury he’s not 100% recovered from, and 2011 undrafted free agent Brandon Saine is listed above him on the depth chart. Green’s specialty is catching the football, something he’ll have a lot of opportunities to do on Green Bay’s explosive offense, but he’ll probably only see the field on 3rd downs in a specialized role.

Projection: 100 carries 470 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 26 catches 210 receiving yards (92 pts standard/118 pts PPR)

WR Greg Jennings (Green Bay)

Greg Jennings managed 67 catches for 949 yards and 9 touchdowns last year in 13 games, good for 82 catches for 1168 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he stays healthy for 16 games this year, something he had done in the 3 previous years, he should not only match those numbers, but surpass them. His 14.2 YPC last year was way lower than average and if he does catch a career high 82 balls this year, definitely a possibility the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, he should have a career high in yards as well.

Projection: 82 catches 1310 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (197 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

WR Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

In 13 games with Greg Jennings healthy last year, Nelson had 51 catches for 957 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 63 catches for 1178 yards and 12 touchdowns, but that’s assuming you think he can keep up 18.6 YPC. For someone with a career 15.1 YPC even with last year factored in, that seems a little crazy.

The stats didn’t show it last year, but Jennings is Rodgers’ favorite target, not Nelson. In the 13 games they played together, Jennings was targeted 96 times, Nelson 58 times. Their receiving stats should reflect that this season barring injuries. That being said, Nelson is still talented enough to go over 1000 yards with Rodgers throwing him the ball.

Projection: 63 catches 1030 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (175 pts standard/238 pts PPR)

TE Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)

Is this the year Jermichael Finley finally puts it all together? He’s definitely flashed at times, including 21 catches for 301 yards and a score in 4 games in 2010, and a strong end to the 2009 season. However, he’s very inconsistent. All that being said, if he just cuts his drops in half (12 to 6) he’ll have a major improvement on 2011, when he caught 55 passes for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns (not too shabby). There’s definitely plenty of upside here.

Projection: 63 catches 880 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (136 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

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Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Michael Vick (Philadelphia)

I’m projecting a down year across the board for Vick once again. He proved last year that his performance against Washington in 2010 was a fluke. I expect him to regress back to close to typical Atlanta passing stats, where he never went over 3000 yards passing, only once threw more than 16 touchdowns and averaged 13 interceptions per game from 2004-2006. He’ll be slightly better because of Andy Reid’s offense and a great receiving corps.

He’s also a year older, which won’t help him, especially as a runner. Legs are normally the first thing to go on an athlete. And if he stops being as big of a threat to run, he becomes easier to defend as a passer. And this is before I mention all the injuries he suffers yearly. Basically, I don’t see him aging well and I wouldn’t recommend him as a fantasy starter.

Projection: 3150 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 520 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (238 pts standard/272 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia)

Andy Reid openly admitted he overused McCoy last season as the 208 pound speedster had a career high 321 touches. He shouldn’t have as many this year, but there is some talk that Reid was smokescreening by saying he’d cut McCoy’s touches. With YPCs of 5.2 and 4.8 over the past two years, he should still have a bunch of rushing yards either way.

He won’t score 20 times again, even without a decrease in touches. I don’t expect Michael Vick to rush for just 1 touchdown again, which will take a few touchdowns away from McCoy, who managed just 9 in 2010. Still, with his pass catching ability, his high YPC, and the explosive offense he plays on, he is once again a top-3 fantasy back.

Projection: 260 carries 1300 rushing yards 15 total touchdowns 60 catches 450 receiving yards (265 pts standard/325 pts PPR)

WR Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)

Maclin was on his way to a career high season last year before getting hurt and still managed 63 catches for 859 yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games. Over 16 games, that’s 78 catches for 1057 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now fully healthy (something he wasn’t last year even when he played) on what should be an overall improved Philadelphia offense, he could match or exceed those numbers this season.

Projection: 79 catches 1090 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (149 pts standard/228 pts PPR)

WR DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

Jackson had 47 catches for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns in 14 games in 2010 and 58 catches for 961 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games last season. A lot of his “struggles” last year can be attributed to him not having a long term contract, which he has now so he should have somewhat of a bounce back season this year, even if his “down season” last year wasn’t even that bad statistically. You do have to consider with Jackson that hasn’t played a full 16 game season since his rookie year.

Projection: 59 catches 1010 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/190 pts PPR)

TE Brent Celek (Philadelphia)

Last season, Celek caught 62 passes for 811 yards and 5 touchdowns, but you have to remember that he caught 42 passes for 511 yards and 4 touchdowns in Michael Vick’s 1st full season as a starter. With a healthy Maclin and a content DeSean Jackson, Vick will likely throw to his wideouts more than tight end Brent Celek, which should drop Celek’s production somewhere midway between 2010 and 2011.

Projection: 55 catches 690 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (93 pts standard/148 pts PPR)

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Washington Redskins Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

Cam Newton’s rookie season has fantasy players very excited about Robert Griffin and rightfully so. Griffin won’t rush for the 14 touchdowns Newton rushed for because, well no one does that. As I said under Cam Newton’s write up, the all-time leader in quarterback rushing touchdowns is Steve Young with 43. In his career. And he never had more than 7 in a single season.

He might not rush for as many yards either, but he’s a more refined passer at this stage of his career than Newton was so he could have better passing numbers, especially in Mike Shanahan’s passer friendly offense. They passed 591 times in 2011 with Rexohn Grossbeck. At the very least, I think Griffin will threw fewer interceptions than Newton’s 17. Griffin is a solid low-end QB1 at worst with good upside.

Projection: 3800 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 440 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns (272 pts standard/312 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Roy Helu (Washington)

8/31/12: Helu would seem to be 3rd on the Redskins’ running back depth chart as of right now. Not only did he play in their final preseason game, but he didn’t see much action early in the game with the 2nd team. The Redskins have expressed their doubt in him as a lead back and see him more as a change of pace back, though for what it’s worth, he’s the best pass catching back remaining on the roster now that Hightower got cut. He could also get a few starts knowing Shanahan, but I’d rank him 3rd of the Washington running backs right now.

8/21/12: Helu is hurt and the coaching staff views him as just a change of pace back, for right now at least. He’s only worth a late round flier in deep leagues and only if you don’t mind dealing with the fact that Shanahan could give the starting job back to Royster or Hightower, once he’s given it to Helu, without warning.

I have fucking no clue what Mike Shanahan is going to do with his backs. Draft any of these guys at your own risk. However, if any of them are still available late, I’d grab him just in case. You never know.

Projection: 120 carries 540 rushing yards 3 total touchdowns 25 catches 200 receiving yards (92 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

RB Evan Royster (Washington)

8/31/12: Royster also gets a stock up with Hightower being released simply because there’s less cooks in the kitchen, but Royster did play in the finale with the 2nd and 3rd team, so it doesn’t look like he won’t be the week 1 starter, but he could easily get a bunch of starts this season. He’s worth a late round flier, if you don’t mind week to week uncertainty.

8/27/12: Mike Shanahan hates fantasy football. Alfred Morris could get the week 1 start. Don’t draft any Washington running back until late. He changes his mind with running backs on a weekly basis with no prior notice. I’m willing to bet that one running back not currently on the Redskins roster will get at least one start for them this season.

8/20/12: If you’re going to own one of Washington’s running backs, Royster is the one. Tim Hightower is still not 100% back from his torn ACL and might not be ready for the opener, while Roy Helu is also hurt and viewed as only a chance of pace back. Just note that Mike Shanahan is incredibly frustrating for fantasy owners. Hightower could easily take his job once he returns and he may decide to change his mind on Helu and make him the starter.

See above.

Projection: 130 carries 590 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 19 catches 150 receiving yards (98 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

8/31/12: Alfred Morris is the biggest beneficiary from the Hightower release. Morris was the only one of the Redskins’ 3 remaining running backs to be held out of the preseason finale this week. This is notable because Shanahan, like many other coaches, held out all of his starters. It looks like Morris was being preserved for a week 1 start. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee anything more than that with Mike Shanahan, but if you put a gun to my head and made me pick one of the Redskins’ 3 running backs, Morris would be the one.

8/27/12: Mike Shanahan hates fantasy football. Alfred Morris could get the week 1 start. Don’t draft any Washington running back until late. He changes his mind with running backs on a weekly basis with no prior notice. I’m willing to bet that one running back not currently on the Redskins roster will get at least one start for them this season.

See above.

Projection: 140 carries 620 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 17 catches 120 receiving yards (104 pts standard/121 pts PPR)

WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Garcon was overpaid in free agency, but he did have 70 catches for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns last season with Curtis Painter throwing him the ball. I don’t know if he’s capable of producing at a high level without Reggie Wayne opposite him, but he should have his first 1000 yard season with Robert Griffin throwing him the ball.

Projection: 70 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/212 pts PPR)

WR Leonard Hankerson (Washington)

8/13/12: Hankerson looks like the favorite to start opposite Pierre Garcon in Washington, with Moss working out of the slot. The 2011 3rd round pick was a favorite of mine in the 2011 NFL Draft season and he showed his abilities by catching 8 passes for 106 yards in his only start last year, before getting hurt and missing the rest of the season. There’s always a chance that Pierre Garcon struggles to transition to a new team, as so many receivers do, so Hankerson has plenty of upside late.

Projection: 55 catches 800 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (122 pts standard/177 pts PPR)

TE Fred Davis (Washington)

Davis is very underrated. He had 59 catches for 796 yards and 3 touchdowns in 12 games last year, good for 79 catches for 1061 yards and 4 touchdowns over 16 games. He also has an upgrade at quarterback, though he does have much better receiving talent around him. Still, he’s an underrated tight end who should score more this year on a better offense. The biggest concern is he’s a failed drug test away from a season long suspension, but I wouldn’t worry too much.

Projection: 72 catches 950 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (125 pts standard/197 pts PPR)

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New York Giants Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Eli Manning (NY Giants)

This might seem a little low for the Super Bowl MVP, but Eli has never been an elite fantasy quarterback. The Giants will probably pass less this year after they added a first round running back in David Wilson to compliment Ahmad Bradshaw. Also, I don’t expect Manning to maintain a completely uncharacteristic 8.4 YPA from last season. Before that, his career high was 7.9 and he’s only twice gone over 7.4. In fact, I don’t expect Eli to even approach the near 5000 yards he had last year. Before last year, his career high was 4021 yards. Expect a regression towards the norm for ELIte.

Projection: 4160 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (253 pts standard/311 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NY Giants)

The Giants spent a first round pick on a back this year, which shows they’re committed to getting back to the run in 2012. David Wilson is more talented than Brandon Jacobs, but he won’t steal all the goal line carries. Wilson is also only just a rookie, which, if you look at what rookie first round pick backs have done in history, suggests he won’t have a huge impact, at least as a rookie.

Bradshaw is still the guy at least this year. And you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter. All 5 of those guys had arguably the best season of their careers in the season immediately after their team drafted a back early.

Projections: 230 carries 1010 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 38 catches 300 receiving yards (185 pts standard/223 pts PPR)

RB David Wilson (NY Giants)

8/13/12: David Wilson is getting mixed reviews in camp. On one hand, he looks incredibly explosive as a runner, but he’s also struggling with his blitz pickup and the Giants, known for easing in rookies, won’t trust him in obvious pass downs. He’ll still get a good portion of the early down work behind Ahmad Bradshaw and he remains just an injury to one of the league’s most injuries prone backs away for being a legitimate RB2, but I’m moving him down slightly.

Rookie running backs tend to struggle anyway, but David Wilson isn’t even his team’s starter yet. He’ll get carries behind Ahmad Bradshaw as the Giants try to run the ball more this season, but he’ll have to wait his turn for a starting job. He’s some fantasy value, but minimal upside barring an injury to Bradshaw.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 22 catches 170 receiving yards (116 pts standard/138 pts PPR)

WR Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

8/7/12: I moved Nicks down a little bit when he got hurt, but he’s practicing already and looks fine. He won’t miss any time, so I moved him back up.

5/27/12: Nicks could be in a race to play week 1 with a broken foot. I won’t knock him down too much, but it’s worth noting.

I’ll take Hakeem Nicks over Victor Cruz. Nicks has a proven history of success as he has 79 catches for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1192 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He’s also bigger so he should have more touchdowns than Cruz, who had more touchdowns between the two last season. Hicks was also significantly better in the playoffs, 28/444/4, than Cruz, 21/269/1.

Projection: 80 catches 1070 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (167 pts standard/247 pts PPR)

WR Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

I’d be wary of buying high on Cruz. He did nothing before his breakout year last year and his 18.7 YPC is going to be hard to maintain. Nicks and Cruz had equal amounts of targets last year, Nicks with 133 and Cruz with 131. If that happens again this year, they’ll probably have more similar stats. I also like Nicks to have the edge in touchdowns.

Projection: 64 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/206 pts PPR)

WR Rueben Randle (NY Giants)

Randle will come in on 3-wide receiver sets and move Cruz to the slot and he’ll see a good amount of the field. The Giants have been very impressed with him in practice so far and they used a high pick on him. Mario Manningham managed 39 catches for 523 yards and 4 touchdowns in 12 games in a similar role last year. He has some fantasy value.

Projection: 45 catches 620 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (92 pts standard/137 pts PPR)

TE Martellus Bennett (NY Giants)

Bennett was a great blocker in Dallas, but never did anything in the passing game behind Jason Witten. However, he did have 49 catches in his last season at Texas A&M and Eli Manning has made Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard look like better pass catchers than they actually were before. There’s some value with him in very deep leagues.

Projection: 40 catches 600 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (84 pts standard/124 pts PPR)

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Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

He takes a lot of heat in real life, but Romo is a great fantasy quarterback, possibly underrated, in fact. With the exception of 2010 when he played just 6 games, he’s averaged 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and he’s gone over 4100 yards in his last three 16 game seasons.

Projection: 4320 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (280 pts standard/338 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray is a very talented back and he should be the lead back because they only have the injury prone and disappointing Felix Jones behind him. There was even some talk that Jones would be traded or cut this offseason. However, Murray got hurt down the stretch last year, something that happened to him often at Oklahoma in college. It’s tough to project him among the league leaders in carries for that reason. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys have only rushed for an average of 10 touchdowns per season in the last 3 years, including just 5 last year.

Projection: 240 carries 1080 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 35 catches 250 receiving yards (175 pts standard/210 pts PPR)

RB Felix Jones (Dallas)

There’s really no point in owning Felix Jones unless DeMarco Murray gets hurt. Murray took over for Jones when he got hurt last year and didn’t look back. Even when Jones came back, Murray had 59 carries to Jones’ 11 in 3 games before Murray got hurt. Jones has had every chance to be the lead back and has never been able to hold down the job. Luckily, Murray is injury prone, but even then, Jones could split carries with Phillip Tanner or he might get hurt himself.

Projection: 80 carries 360 rushing yards 2 total touchdowns 27 catches 200 receiving yards (68 pts standard/95 pts PPR)

WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

8/20/12: Austin is battling hamstring problems still and Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Bryant, who is having a strong offseason on the field, could be due for a huge season in his 3rd year in the league, typically a breakout year for receivers. He’s the clear #1 option in one of the best passing attacks in the league.

Dez Bryant caught 63 balls for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games last year. He’s now in his 3rd year, a frequent breakout year for receivers, and should have his best year yet, especially if he plays 16 games for the first time in his career.

Projection: 72 catches 1100 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (170 pts standard/242 pts PPR)

WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

8/20/12: Miles Austin has missed all of the Preseason with hamstring problems. He should be fine for week 1, but hamstring problems tend to linger and he missed 6 games and caught just 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns last year because of hamstring problems. He’s got upside, but let him be someone else’s problem.

He’s an injury risk after only playing in 10 games last year, in which he caught 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, before last year in his previous 17 games with Tony Romo, Austin has 109 catches for 1725 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 103 catches for 1624 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s clearly the #2 receiver to Dez Bryant now, but there’s definitely buy low value with him.

Projection: 63 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

8/31/12: Jason Witten will reportedly be a game time decision for week 1 as he tries to come back from a lacerated spleen suffered a couple of weeks ago. This is much better news than his original prognosis, which was doubtful for week 1. At the very least, this news should mean that he’ll be in the starting lineup week 2.

An incredibly consistent producer, Witten has between 64 catches for 754 yards and 96 catches for 1145 yards in every season since 2004 and is averaging 5.16 catches for 59.07 yards and 0.31 touchdowns per game in that time period. Over 15 games, that’s 77 catches for 886 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s not a bad year at all. You can safely draft him as your TE1 in fantasy. Even if he misses one game, tight end is a deep enough position that you can pick someone up off waivers for just one game and get decent production.

8/20/12: Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Unfortunately, the timetable for his return is very murky with this type of injury. He’ll have to remain idle for about a week and hope it heals and that he’ll avoid surgery. Reports says that’s the most likely scenario, but even if that scenario, he’d be questionable for week 1. Witten is incredibly tough and hasn’t missed a game since 2003, but I’m still cutting his original projected numbers to estimate that he plays 14 games instead of 16.

Jason Witten is as consistent as they come. He hasn’t missed a game since 2003 and he’s had between 79 and 96 catches and 942 yards and 1145 yards in each of the last 5 years. Believe it or not, he’s still only 30.

Projection: 77 catches 900 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (120 pts standard/197 pts PPR)

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Oakland Raiders Fantasy Football Projections

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QB Carson Palmer (Oakland)

Excluding the Kansas City game, where he was still getting into the flow of things and wasn’t even supposed to play, Palmer played 9 games last year. He threw for 2637 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Over 16 games, that’s 4688 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. Some think he could improve on those numbers as he has another year in the system, but I have a hard time believing he improves on his 8.4 YPA from last year, especially since his career high before that was 7.8 and his career average is 7.1. He also turns 33 in December. That TD/INT ratio could improve, but remember, he led the league in interceptions in 2010.

Projection: 4120 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 21 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (214 pts standard/258 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

8/27/12: I’m still down on McFadden, but I’m moving him up because he’s looked really good this preseason. He’s not worth a 1st round pick though. He’s way too injury prone. He’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 227 carries and has only once gone over 113 carries in 4 seasons. He’s their everything back, but he’s almost a sure bet to miss 3-4+ games, at least.

Darren McFadden has only once gone over 113 carries in 4 seasons. There’s upside here, but there’s also downside. He’s a talented back who averages 4.8 YPC over his career and he’ll have no competition for the lead back job if he’s healthy, I just don’t trust him to be healthy.

Projection: 200 carries 960 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 41 catches 350 receiving yards (179 pts standard/220 pts PPR)

RB Taiwan Jones (Oakland)

8/27/12: Jones won the backup job after a strong preseason. McFadden is almost certain to miss 3-4+ games and Jones will probably get 15+ touches in those games. He’s incredibly fast and talented. If you do draft McFadden, make sure you take this talented handcuff late.

Like Mike Goodson, Jones is a name to know because of how injury prone McFadden is. Neither of them have much value until McFadden goes down, but he will and in that case, both will be ownable.

Projection: 120 carries 540 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 20 catches 180 receiving yards (96 pts standard/116 pts PPR)

WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

8/20/12: Moore has missed all of the Preseason and most of Training Camp with a hamstring problem, which he’s been dealing with for 2 months. Hamstring injuries tend to linger and Moore missed time with injuries last season too so he probably won’t play all 16 games this season. I’ve cut his projected stats to account for a decrease in projected games played from 16 to 14 and lowered his YPC because hamstring injuries can sap explosion.

In 6 games with Carson Palmer, not including the Kansas City game, Moore caught 19 passes for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 51 catches for 1083 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. He’s having a great offseason and Carson Palmer loves throwing to him so in his 2nd season, Moore could have a huge year assuming he plays in all 16 games, or at least comes close.

Projection: 48 catches 860 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (128 pts standard/176 pts PPR)

WR Darrius Heyward Bey (Oakland)

Darrius Heyward Bey proved he was more than fast last season, catching 64 passes for 975 yards and 4 touchdowns. His production was about the same with and without Carson Palmer so he should match those numbers this year.

Projection: 66 catches 960 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (132 pts standard/198 pts PPR)

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San Diego Chargers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chargers

QB Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Philip Rivers inexplicably regressed last season and had one of his worst seasons as a starter and certainly an inferior season to his past 3. I like his chances to bounce back, but at the same time, he’s also lost Vincent Jackson, his top receiver. Then again, he did fine without Jackson in 2010 when he was holding out so he should be fine.

It says a lot that Rivers can still deservingly go to the Pro Bowl in 2011, even though he had such a disappointing season that people wondered all year whether or not he was hurt. In his last 6 games in 2011, he had 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 1601 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 4269 yards. He should be fine. I conservatively averaged his numbers from his last 2 seasons to get my projections.

Projection: 4670 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (275 pts standard/333 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

8/13/12: Mathews has broken his collarbone and will miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his week 1 and week 2 status in doubt, dampening the outlook for a player who looked poised to have a breakout year. He still remains a 1st round pick in fantasy circles, though, and he may be undervalued, going now in the late 2nd on average. Before the injury, he was going off the board 7th overall.

Yes, he will miss a game or two, but you had to figure he would when making projections for him. When in the lineup, he could easily lead all backs in fantasy points per game as the Chargers’ “everything” back. If he can play 14 or 15 games and not sustain another injury, he could still finish the year as a top-5 back. There’s no guarantees he won’t get hurt again, especially with his history, but collarbone injuries are not lingering injuries. Unfortunately, there’s not a good handcuff for him as Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and LeRon McClain, 3 mediocre backs, will split carries if he misses any time, making all 3 fantasy irrelevant.

I love Ryan Mathews this year. Allow me to explain. He’ll be the clear lead back for the first time in his career. The Chargers don’t have a good #2 back like they had with Mike Tolbert over the past 2 years, as well as Darren Sproles in 2010. Mathews will only have fullback Le’Ron McClain and Curtis Brinkley, who has 32 career carries, to compete with for carries.

In his 3rd year, the former 12th overall pick should rank among the league leaders in carries for the first time as long as he stays healthy. The Chargers have talked him up all offseason and said that he’s ready to be a feature back, which Norv Turner’s offenses normally have. For a back with a career 4.7 YPC, that could put him among the league leaders in rushing yards. He also plays on an explosive offense, which should be even better this year as Philip Rivers bounces back from one of his worst career seasons.

Mathews has never gone over 7 touchdowns in a season, but Mike Tolbert had 21 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. And, again, he’s gone. Finally, Mathews is a threat in the passing game. Last year, he caught 50 passes for 455 yards, numbers that should be up as Rivers’ bounces back and Mathews sees more of the field. Between Mathews and Tolbert, Chargers running backs caught 104 passes last year. Rivers loves throwing to his backs.

Projection: 260 carries 1170 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 52 catches 440 receiving yards (227 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

WR Malcom Floyd (San Diego)

8/20/12: Floyd also becomes up with Brown going down. Floyd’s starting job was never in danger, but with Brown out, Floyd becomes the obvious candidate to be San Diego’s #1 wide receiver. He’s not as physically talented as Meachem, but he’s got better chemistry with the quarterback. The biggest issue is that he’s missed 9 games over the past 2 seasons, he’s heading into his age 31 season, and he’s caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games over the past 2 seasons. He wasn’t able to take advantage of the chance to be a #1 receiver in 2010 either.

There’s definitely upside here with Floyd. In 23 games over the last 2 seasons, he’s caught 80 balls for 1573 yards and 11 touchdowns. I just don’t trust him to get through a 16 game season healthy. He’s also been very inconsistent with 14 games of 3 catches or fewer over the past 2 years. He’s not worth the headaches, especially in PPR leagues.

Projection: 48 catches 850 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (121 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

WR Robert Meachem (San Diego)

8/20/12: Meachem obviously gets a stock up with Brown going down as Brown was a major threat to his job. The fact that Meachem has struggled in Training Camp and has never caught more than 45 passes in a season, despite having Drew Brees as his quarterback, remains, but he should be a starter for the entire season on one of the more explosive offenses in the league. He’ll probably be utilized more in San Diego (if the utilization is in the best interest of the Chargers’ offense is yet to be determined), so he could have a career year because of the pure volume of targets coming his way.

The Chargers coaching staff is talking up Meachem, but that’s just because they gave him so much money. Meachem has been a career disappointment in New Orleans since being taken in the first round and has never gone over 45 catches in a season. Why would he get better now that he has an inferior quarterback and a bunch of guaranteed money in his back pocket? He’ll be overdrafted.

Projection: 48 catches 800 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (116 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/20/12: Brown is probably done for the year. I’ve gone into detail on Floyd’s and Meachem’s short comings. Eddie Royal, the slot receiver, is also injury prone and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008. Gates was their #1 receiver in 2010, the last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson, catching 50 passes for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games before getting hurt, on pace for a ridiculous 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s having a great offseason and is finally healthy and while he’s 32 and might miss a couple games with injuries, he’ll probably be the Chargers’ leading per game receiver when healthy.

I struggle with Antonio Gates. On one hand, he’s had 114 catches for 1560 yards and 17 touchdowns in 23 games over the past 2 years despite never being fully healthy and he’s now healthier than he’s been in the last 2 years. That’s 79 catches for 1085 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. He also caught 50 balls for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in a mere 10 games in 2010 with Vincent Jackson holding out and Rivers could look to him early and often, especially in the red zone, with Jackson gone.

On the other hand, he’s 32 in June and his days of playing all 16 games are behind him. Basically, what you’re getting with Antonio Gates is elite tight end production for around 14 games. Is that worth a 3rd or 4th round pick? In a deep tight end year where you can find a marginal replacement for him on waivers for any games he misses, I say yes.

Projection: 67 catches 1040 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/231 pts PPR)

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Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chiefs

QB Matt Cassel (Kansas City)

The Chiefs are going back to a very run heavy attack with two talented backs in 2012 and could lead the league in rushing. In 2010, when they did this, Cassel had 27 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, but managed just 3116 yards (6.9 YPA) on 450 attempts. His TD/INT ratio should improve from the 10:9 it was last year, but he also had a 16:16 ratio in 2009 so I’m not expecting 27:7 again. I’m also expecting his YPA to be around where it was last year (6.4) with only 450 or so attempts. Not a lot to get excited about here. Even if in 2010, he wasn’t anything more than a fantasy backup and that was at his best.

Projection: 2940 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 130 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (190 pts standard/232 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

7/26/12: I’m moving Hillis down with the news that the Chiefs will try to have their backs touch the ball combined 500 times, but I’m actually moving Charles up because he’s been cleared for the start of Training Camp and should get the majority of the touches. There will be a 60-40 split or so and Charles, who has averaged 6.1 YPC in his career, could get a career high in touches. There’s major upside with him in the 2nd round, provided he stays healthy and plays close to 100% of his 2010 self.

There’s buy low potential here with Jamaal Charles.  The Chiefs are going to try to replicate their 2010 offense so there will be plenty of carries to go around for both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they should split them evenly like Charles and Thomas Jones did in 2010. Charles has a career 6.1 YPC and figures to be able to make the most of those carries. Peyton Hills will get the goal line carries, but Charles should still have a solid year.

Projection: 250 carries 1250 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 40 catches 320 receiving yards (205 pts standard/245 pts PPR)

RB Peyton Hillis (Kansas City)

7/26/12: The Chiefs reportedly want running backs Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles to touch the ball a combined 500 times next season, less than I originally projected (going off the 539 times that Charles and Jones touched the ball combined in 2010). However, they’ll still run a ton so Hillis is a decent RB3, who pass catches and will get the goal line carries. He’s also got a lot of upside since Charles is coming off a torn ACL.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combined for 475 carries in 2010. Hillis and Charles could approach that this season running behind a much improved offensive line. Remember, Hillis is less than 2 years removed from rushing for 1177 yards and 11 touchdowns on 270 carries on a stagnant Cleveland offense in 2010. He may not be as talented as Charles, but he catches passes and will get all the goal line carries. An inferior Jones scored 6 times in 2010. Hillis could get in double figures in 2012.

Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (147 pts standard/177 pts PPR)

WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

8/7/12: I don’t know why Dwayne Bowe is holding out. He can’t be signed to a long term deal anyway. All he’s doing is hurting himself because other guys are impressing in his absence and other guys will have a better grasp of the offense with a new coaching staff in. Jonathan Baldwin has been a stud in his absence and will almost definitely eat into his production this season. All he’s doing is costing himself money on his next contract. He could also end up getting out of shape. He probably won’t miss any regular games, but let him be someone else’s problem this season.

Over the past 2 years, Dwayne Bowe has had 72 catches for 1162 yards and 81 catches for 1159 yards on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. However, I expect those numbers to dip a bit in 2012. The Chiefs have more options with Jonathan Baldwin going into his 2nd year and Tony Moeaki coming back from injury and they figure to run a ton, maybe even more than in 2010. He is, however, the only Kansas City receiver with any fantasy value on a conservative offense with a mediocre quarterback. He should have more than the 5 touchdowns he had last year, but less than the obviously fluky 15 he had in 2010. Aside from 2010, his career high is 7 and after that it’s 5.

Projection: 65 catches 950 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

WR Jonathan Baldwin (Kansas City)

8/7/12: Baldwin didn’t do much as a rookie last year, but he as a 1st round pick and a bad rookie year is already damning for a receiver. Baldwin has been impressing in Bowe’s absence and should be able to nail down a starting job, moving Steve Breaston to the slot. Breaston had 61 catches for 785 yards and 2 touchdowns last year with inferior quarterback play. Baldwin is more talented and definitely has upside as a late round flier. Unfortunately, he’s limited by his quarterback and Bowe’s presence.

Projection: 50 catches 700 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (100 pts standard/150 pts PPR)

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Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Broncos

QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

I’m projecting a down season for Peyton Manning for several reasons. For one, he’s going to a new team, in a new division, with a new system, and new players, new coaches, new surroundings, everything new. The continuity is gone for Peyton Manning, which is never a good thing. Two, he’s got inferior players around him, at least in comparison to the 2000s Colts or even the 2010 Colts, which had two receivers, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, who almost had 1000 yard seasons last year with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky.

Three, he was out of football all last year. In 2010, he struggled by his standards for half a season after just missing training camp. Four, he’s coming off of 4 neck surgeries in 2 years. Enough said. Five, he’s 36 and a declining player. He was a declining player even in 2010 and that was 3 neck surgeries and almost 2 years ago. His arm strength wasn’t what it used to be and I can’t imagine it’s any better now. I expect him to have a season worse than 2010, when he had 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 touchdowns, particularly because he won’t throw the ball 679 times, which he did in 2010.

Projection: 4370 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (264 pts standard/322 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Willis McGahee (Denver)

8/20/12: McGahee’s top backup, Ronnie Hillman, has been dealing with hamstring problems all Preseason. Those things can linger, so it becomes less likely that Hillman overtakes McGahee, especially since Head Coach John Fox doesn’t like rookies. McGahee is still heading into his age 31 season, but he’s reportedly the clear lead back and he should get a bunch of carries and a bunch of goal line carries on an explosive offense.

There’s nothing but downside with McGahee this year after a surprise bounce back year last year. Remember, he’s a season removed from averaging 3.8 YPC as Ray Rice’s backup in Baltimore behind a better offensive line. Now he’s 31 in October. He’s getting drafted too early and Hillman is getting drafted too late as he has real sleeper value.

Projection: 200 carries 820 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 20 catches 130 receiving yards (149 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

8/20/12: Hillman is dealing with hamstring problems and on top of that, news has come out that McGahee is the clear lead back, which makes some sense since John Fox hates rookies. Hillman does have some upside, because he’s the type of pass catching back that Peyton Manning will want on the field with him and because McGahee is heading into his age 31 season, but he’s only a late round flier. He might even start the season below Knowshon Moreno on the depth chart.

Willis McGahee had a bounce back year last year with 1199 yards and 4 touchdowns on 249 carries, but a lot of that had to do with Tebow and opposing front 7s having to focus on him and his running ability. Now he’s a year older, 31 in October, and the Broncos used a 3rd round pick on a running back. McGahee could struggle this season and end up in a 50/50 timeshare with Ronnie Hillman. I actually like Hillman to lead this team in carries. McGahee will get the goal line carries, but Hillman is a better pass catcher.

Projection: 100 carries 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (84 pts standard/104 pts PPR)

WR Eric Decker (Denver)

8/7/12: Eric Decker and Peyton Manning reportedly have great chemistry in Denver, much better than him and Demaryius Thomas. This makes a lot of sense because Peyton Manning loves crisp route runners with reliable hands, rather than pure athletic freaks like Thomas. With Peyton Manning likely to show diminished arm strength this season at age 36 after 4 neck surgeries and a year out of football, Decker should lead the team in receiving and Peter King’s prediction that Decker will rank among the league leaders in receiving doesn’t sound too crazy.

Everyone assumes Demaryius Thomas will lead the Broncos in receiving, but why? Just because he had 25 catches for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 5 games last year? Well Eric Decker had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 4 games last year and that was with Brandon Lloyd opposite him.

Just because Thomas had great chemistry with Tim Tebow doesn’t mean he will have great chemistry with Peyton Manning. Thomas is still a very unproven player and Decker has shown better chemistry with more traditional pocket passers. It’s also worth noting that Peyton Manning specifically requested the Colts draft Eric Decker in the 3rd round in 2010, but the Broncos got him first. We know he thinks highly of him.

Manning has made lemonade out of apples before with his receivers. If Austin Collie can catch 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in 9 games on a more crowded receiving corps in 2010 with Manning, Decker can have a 1000 yard season. I think he’ll lead this team in receiving and exceed his draft range.

Projection: 90 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/254 pts PPR)

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

8/27/12: Like with the Caldwell entry, I don’t know why Thomas’ numbers were so low. I’m down on him, as compared to Eric Decker, but not too down.

I went into detail about Thomas under Eric Decker’s write up, but Thomas has never had any success in the NFL without Tim Tebow. He also has very little proven success in general with just 54 catches for 834 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2 seasons. He’s got a ton of talent and athleticism, but I think Decker stands a better chance to develop great chemistry with Manning as he’s a traditional drop back passer. It doesn’t hurt that Peyton Manning told the Colts to draft Eric Decker back in 2010. Thomas won’t have a bad year, but could be overdrafted.

Projection: 46 catches 820 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (124 pts standard/170 pts PPR)

TE Jacob Tamme (Denver)

8/27/12: Peyton Manning has been targeting Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen equally in the preseason. The Broncos will use a lot of 2-tight end sets this year and their two talented tight ends might just cancel each other out. Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning, good for 107 catches for 1010 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, but all that proves is Manning loves throwing to his tight ends. He always has (see Clark, Dallas). However, he’ll split his tight end targets between Tamme and Dreessen this year. Tamme will probably see more targets, but Dreessen will be the preferred goal line target and probably have more touchdowns.

I love Jacob Tamme this year. He caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning and he’s the only receiver with any previous experience with Manning. He also will play in a pretty mediocre receiving corps so Manning could target him early and often, especially with his previous familiarity with him.

Projection: 64 catches 700 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard/158 pts PPR)

TE Joel Dreessen (Denver)

8/27/12: Peyton Manning has been targeting Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen equally in the preseason. The Broncos will use a lot of 2-tight end sets this year and their two talented tight ends might just cancel each other out. Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning, good for 107 catches for 1010 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, but all that proves is Manning loves throwing to his tight ends. He always has (see Clark, Dallas). However, he’ll split his tight end targets between Tamme and Dreessen this year. Tamme will probably see more targets, but Dreessen will be the preferred goal line target and probably have more touchdowns.

Projection: 49 catches 590 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (89 pts standard/138 pts PPR)

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