2012 Week 1 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Patriots, Titans

New England Patriots (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

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The Titans are one of my favorite sleeper teams. Defensively, they had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year and while they lost Cortland Finnegan, the combination of an improved pass rush (with Derrick Morgan finally healthy and Kamerion Wimbley coming in), their depth at cornerback (new starter Alterraun Verner played very well last season), and the continued maturation of their young defense (6 of 11 starters last year had been drafted in 2009 or later) will make up for that.

Offensively, they will continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and their run blocking should be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson should be back to his old self, while Kenny Britt returns from injury. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando. Britt, meanwhile, missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games.

In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board. Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action). Basically, I feel the same way about the Titans that I did at this point last year about the Lions, who proved me right.

The Titans are clearly underrated as 6 point home underdogs (with negative juice at -105). That translates to a line of -12 in New England (3 points each way for home field). For reference, Buffalo was just -11 in New England week 17 of last year and they finished 6-10. Meanwhile, the Patriots were -7 in Washington last year towards the end of the season and they finished 5-11 (and failed to cover). The Titans were 9-7 last year and might have a top-10 offense and defense this year. Even if you don’t agree with me that the Titans will be good, you have to agree that they’ll be better than 5-11 or 6-10. There’s serious line value here.

On top of all this, the Patriots were Super Bowl runner ups last year. Those teams are 3-15 ATS week 1 the following season. The Steelers got blown out in Baltimore last year in this same situation. The Patriots, believe it or not, are actually only 5-5 ATS in the Belichick/Brady era week 1 (9-1 SU), so they won’t be immune to this “curse.” Another thing I like to see, the Titans opened -7 and immediately almost all of the action went on New England, about 90%, and yet the line dropped. That’s a tell tale sign of a trap line. The odds makers really want you to bet New England. As a general rule, it’s a good idea not to do what the odds makers want you to. If the Titans had Kenny Britt (he’ll miss this game with suspension) and it wasn’t Jake Locker’s 1st career start, I’d make the Titans co-pick of the week. Instead, it’ll be a smaller, but still fairly large bet.

Tennessee Titans 27 New England Patriots 24 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans +6 (-105) 4 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bengals, Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

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Anyone who followed me during the offseason knows I picked 5 underrated and overrated teams with the intention of trying to get ahead of the odds makers. I will and have been basically just been betting on the underrated teams and against the overrated teams blindly until I’m proven wrong or the odds makers catch up. Unfortunately, I kind of got screwed over this week because two of my underrated teams and two of my overrated teams are playing each other. This game is the latter.

The Bengals made a 5 game improvement last season to go from 4 wins to 9 wins. If history holds, they’ll regress this year as teams that make that kind of improvement regress an average of 2.4 wins per season since the beginning of the 16 game NFL season. Andy Dalton had a rough preseason and really struggled in games against playoff teams last season, during which he went 0-8. He should regress this season now that teams know how to scheme against the Bengals’ system. Andy Dalton had a decent rookie year because of the great job Jay Gruden did as offensive coordinator, but there’s only so long a system can keep a player looking better than he is because you can figure out how to scheme against systems. There’s a reason he struggled so much down the stretch and against better teams. I compare it to Colt McCoy, who looked alright as a rookie, but not only didn’t take that next step in his 2nd year, but also regressed noticeably. Dalton, like McCoy, definitely does not have history on his side as he tries to make the leap to “franchise quarterback.” Only 9 of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL today weren’t 1st round picks. In each of the last 2 years, only 4 of 12 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs weren’t 1st round picks.

The Bengals were also hit hard by injuries this preseason as offensive lineman Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton are both expected to miss the season, with Wharton already on IR. The Bengals injury list is even longer this week as Dre Kirkpatrick and Jason Allen won’t play, Bernard Scott won’t play and Carlos Dunlap and Robert Geathers might not play. Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals won’t be able to run the ball this week.

Geathers’ and Dunlap’s potential absences hurt because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. If Geathers and Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to start next to Michael Johnson, the least effective member of their pass rush rotation last year with 7 sacks, but just 6 quarterback hits and 15 quarterback pressures, good for a 6.5% rate on 433 pass rush snaps. Those two would probably also have to play most of the game, something they’re just not used to.

Dunlap, the more likely of the two to miss, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%. He’d obviously be a huge loss and right not it sounds like he’ll be out. Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

The Ravens are banged up too as they’re missing Terrell Suggs likely for the season on defense. They also lost two other defensive starters, Cory Redding and Jarrett Johnson, key members of their run defense. The Ravens have depth in the front 7, but guys like Paul Kruger, Pernell McPhee, Arthur Jones, and Albert McClellan will have to play more than they did last year and it’s always a projection to expect them to keep up their levels of play as they get more playing time. Meanwhile, Courtney Upshaw, their 2nd round rookie, will have to play more than they would have liked. On top of all that, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are aging.

Inferior defensive play will put more pressure on the Ravens’ offense, especially Joe Flacco and company. Joe Flacco looked great in the preseason, with Torrey Smith appearing to be the #1 receiver that Flacco has really lacked his whole career. I almost changed the Ravens’ projection after seeing them in the preseason, but I didn’t because I didn’t want to put too much stock in the preseason. They are, however, really one of those teams that fell out of the playoffs in my preseason predictions out of circumstance. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they played well and made the playoffs, despite their losses on defense, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they missed the playoffs.

Because they fell out of circumstance, I feel more comfortable going with the Ravens than the Bengals in this one. I don’t trust the overrated Andy Dalton to beat the Ravens, considering he’s never beaten a playoff team and the Ravens were undefeated at home last year (9-0), as inconsistent as they were on the road. It’s not a very big bet though.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -6 (-110) 2 units

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Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Texans

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

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If you’ve been following all of my picks, you’d know I love betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The competition Tannehill faced in the Big 12 is nothing like the 4th ranked scoring defense of the Texans’ he’ll face this week.

That will be especially true for Tannehill because he’s incredibly raw and because he doesn’t have much to work with in the receiving corps at all. Legedu Naanee, Brian Hartline, and Davone Bess will be his top 3 wide receivers, with Anthony Fasano and Charles Clay at tight end. Things aren’t much better on the offensive line. At right tackle is a 2nd round rookie Jonathan Martin, who might take a little bit to adjust to the NFL, while left tackle Jake Long has a bad knee. He’ll probably play, but he might not be quite his normal self. Center Mike Pouncey was decent last year and could take another step forward in his 2nd season, while left guard Richie Incognito is also decent.

Right guard is the biggest problem. John Jerry was supposed to be the solution at right guard for them, but, already a poor fit for their zone blocking scheme, Jerry showed up out of shape this offseason and lost his starting job to Artis Hicks, a 34 year old who struggled in limited action as a backup in Cleveland last season. Hicks is now on IR, meaning Jerry will start by default, but the Dolphins might sign Jake Scott, who is still unsigned this close to the start of the season, and he could end up starting for them. That’s how bad things are. They’ll be able to run the ball alright as long as Reggie Bush is healthy, with two young backs Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller behind him on the depth chart, but the Dolphins will still have trouble moving the ball against a Houston defense that allowed the 4th fewest points in the league last year. Tannehill completed 52.6% of his passes for an average of 5.3 YPA in the preseason. That’s the kind of game he’s probably going to have here.

Miami’s defense was pretty good last year, but they probably won’t be as good this year. They’ll be transitioning from a 3-4 scheme to a 4-3 scheme, which several key players, including Paul Soliai, Jared Odrick, and possibly even Cameron Wake don’t fit as well. It might have been a case of “if it’s not broken, don’t fix it” defensively for the Dolphins. They also lost Vontae Davis and he was one of the top cornerbacks in the league last year. Free agent acquisition Richard Marshall is one of the league’s most underrated cornerbacks and Sean Smith could have a bounce back year, so maybe they won’t miss Davis, but I expect a worse defensive performance by the Dolphins this year. Houston, meanwhile, has Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Matt Schaub all healthy in the same game, something that just didn’t happen much last year. Before Schaub got hurt last year, they averaged 27.3 points per game and that was with Andre Johnson and Arian Foster missing significant time during that stretch.

Basically, the Dolphins aren’t going to be very good, especially in the debut of the raw Tannehill. The Texans, meanwhile, are one of the league’s best teams and should blow the Dolphins out in Houston. This isn’t a very big bet because it’s such a big line, as it should be, but I would be surprised if this was even a close game. Houston is also my survivor pick of the week, for anyone who does those things.

Houston Texans 27 Miami Dolphins 9 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Houston -12 (-110) 1 unit

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Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Saints

Washington Redskins (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

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Welcome to the NFL Robert Griffin. For your first test, you have to go to the Superdome and play Drew Brees and the Saints where they didn’t lose all of last season (9-0 SU and ATS!!!). The Saints have obviously been hurt this offseason by BountyGate and possibly, to a lesser extent, by Drew Brees’ extended contract negotiations, which caused him to miss valuable pre-Training Camp practice time and possibly hurt locker room morale. However, the BountyGate losses they suffered are not huge. Jonathan Vilma was one of the worst middle linebackers in the league last year and looked pretty washed up. Free agent additions David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton will more than make up for his loss and will turn linebacker, a position of weakness for the Saints in 2011, into a strength. They also added Brodrick Bunkley, the league’s top run stuffing defensive tackle last season.

The bigger loss will be Will Smith at defensive end. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate. New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. Even with Smith missing 4 games with suspension, they should be a more efficient pass rushing team this season and they should be able to get some pressure against a Washington offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year and didn’t look any better in the preseason.

The Saints’ biggest loss was Head Coach Sean Payton, but they still have Drew Brees and, for what’s it worth, the Saints 1st team offense didn’t seem to miss a beat in the preseason. If anyone can come out the other side of the offseason they just had and still compete, it’s the Saints. Drew Brees is like an assistant head coach and they’re not changing things up much so they should still be more than fine offensively. They’re an incredibly talented team, possibly even more so than last year, and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick had it not been for the off the field issues they had in the offseason. I think they’re a bit underrated right now. They’re just -7  here. For reference, the Falcons were -7 coming into New Orleans week 16 last year. They finished 10-6. The Lions, same record, were -10 in the playoffs in New Orleans.

The Redskins are also underrated right now, but I don’t think they deserve to be just +7. Robert Griffin doesn’t have a great offensive line, but he’s got plenty of offensive weapons in the receiving corps and Mike Shanahan teams have always been able to run the ball, no matter who is starting at running back. Griffin’s rushing ability will also help open things up for whichever back starts this game. Defensively, the secondary is a problem, but they have a much underrated front 7 with two great pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, one of the best middle linebackers of all time in London Fletcher, a budding young linebacker in Perry Riley, and two solid defensive linemen in Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen. They won 5 games last year despite awful quarterback play. They should be a solid .500 team this year. Griffin’s presence will make a huge difference, just like Cam Newton did with the Panthers last year (Griffin’s got the superior supporting cast).

However, it may take Griffin a little bit to become acclimated to the NFL. One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. Griffin didn’t face particularly tough defenses in the Big 12, nor did he have to run a very tough offense and, while I don’t have too many concerns about his long term success, he might struggle out of the gate, especially in New Orleans against a Saints team that might be awfully pissed off after the offseason. Besides, I’m not betting against the Saints in New Orleans.

Update: Player suspensions in the bounty scandal overturned. Even if the players returning don’t have a positive effect on the game for the Saints, it’s a huge morale boost for the team. I’m adding an extra unit.

New Orleans Saints 34 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans Saints -7 (-115) 3 units

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Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

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One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The Browns’ Brandon Weeden is 28 years old, but he’ll still have to make the transition from collegiate level defenses to NFL level defenses. The Eagles’ stout defense is going to be far tougher than anything he ever faced in the Big 12.

Weeden also has several major flaws, which is a big part of the reason why he wasn’t a top-10 pick. He tends to take unnecessary risks with the football and can get flustered when the pocket collapses. These are hardly rare attributes for rookie quarterbacks to have, but the issue with Weeden is, unlike most rookie quarterbacks, he doesn’t have 2-3 years to work through those flaws. If he were 22 or 23, sure he would have gone in the top-10, probably even a little bit ahead of Tannehill, but he’s 28, 29 this season. He’s actually older than Aaron Rodgers.

That’s why he fell to 22 to the Browns, where he wasn’t even the Browns’ 1st choice. They wanted Trent Richardson, Kendall Wright, and then Brandon Weeden, taking Weeden in the early 2nd round or late 1st after trading up, but when Wright went 20 to the Titans surprisingly, they just took Weeden. That tells me that the Browns didn’t see him as a polished prospect either. He won’t look like a polished prospect this year and especially not in his first game and against such tough competition.

Weeden has obviously physical advantages over incumbent Colt McCoy, but one of the things McCoy was really good at was avoiding turnovers. The Browns had just 19 turnovers last year. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. It’s not hard to see how the Browns will turn the ball over more this season and that will limit how much the newcomers will improve things. They’ll be better than the 30th ranked offense they were last year, but not a lot better and they will probably really struggle early in the year as Weeden gets adjusted to the NFL and fellow 1st rounder Trent Richardson gets healthy.

Weeden also won’t have a lot of help. Because they were unable to get Wright, their receiving corps remains very thin. Greg Little could have a breakout year if everything goes right, but Little was one of the worst in the league last year in yards per targets (partially McCoy’s fault) and after him, everything is an even bigger question mark. Mohamed Massaquoi, a mediocre receiver, will start opposite him while their depth behind the two starters are two rookies, Travis Benjamin, a raw 4th rounder, and Josh Gordon, a 2nd round pick in the Supplemental draft who hasn’t played in a game that counts in almost 2 calendar years. Tight end Ben Watson, meanwhile, is a declining player. The Browns add two other rookies to their offense, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and running back Trent Richardson, but the former was just a 2nd rounder so he might not be that great early on and the latter is less than a month removed from his 2nd knee surgery of the offseason so, even if he plays, it won’t be a full workload and he won’t be his normal self. This is a very young and inexperienced offense playing a great defense.

The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football. Joe Thomas is an excellent left tackle for the Browns, but they’ll give him a tough test and they should be able to exploit the holes the Browns have at other spots on the line. Aside from Thomas, only center Alex Mack is a solid starter on this offensive line, assuming Schwartz predictably struggles out of the gate as a rookie. Weeden will be under pressure all night and, as I mentioned, that’s something he has trouble with.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better.

It’s for that and several other reasons why I think the Eagles will be very good this year. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis. They Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. This year, they may be even more talented. They would have been in my underrated group in my season preview if they weren’t such a popular “sleeper” pick that there’s basically no line value with them anymore. They’re -9 here on the road with juice and were one of just 8 teams to have an over/under set at 10 or more wins.

The Browns defense has no chance of stopping the Eagles’ offense. They ranked 5th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21st against the run with 4.4 YPC. They did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

However, they have been ravaged by injuries this offseason, losing Phil Taylor, Chris Gocong, and James-Michael Johnson, while Scott Fujita will miss this game with suspension, meaning they’ll be without 3 of their top 4 linebackers, forcing undrafted rookie LJ Fort to start at linebacker. Taylor’s absence will force 3rd round rookie John Hughes to start at defensive tackle. Hughes was a major reach in the 3rd round. He didn’t even think he had a chance to go before the 4th round and didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft (rounds 4-7). The good news is that it looks like Joe Haden will not be suspended for this one, but the Eagles can just easily pick on opposite cornerback Sheldon Brown, who is heading into his age 33 season. The Browns have one good defensive back (Haden), one good linebacker (D’Qwell Jackson), and one good defensive lineman (Jabaal Sheard) and that’s about it. That won’t be nearly enough to stop the Eagles, who averaged 24.8 points per game last year, despite those 38 turnovers.

The Eagles finished last season on an impressive 4-0 run and turned into the team that no one wanted to have to face in the playoffs, outscoring teams 125-46 over that stretch. Of course, they didn’t have very tough competition during that stretch (@Miami, vs. NY Jets, @ Dallas, vs. Washington), but they don’t have tough competition here either and should be able to blow out the Browns in Weeden’s debut. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because I hate betting on road favorite of more than a touchdown (they tend to only cover about 40% of the time historically). It should be an easy blowout though.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against spread: Philadelphia Eagles -9 (-115) 2 units

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

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I have the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency. If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. However, I’m just not that comfortable betting on the Chargers here. They’re incredibly banged up offensively. They’ll be without top running back Ryan Matthews, leaving decrepit running back Ronnie Brown to start, in his age 31 season, after averaging 3.2 YPC last year.

They’re also without Vincent Brown, their best receiver in Training Camp before his injury, leaving Philip Rivers with the overpaid Robert Meachem, who has a career high 45 catches despite playing 4 years with Drew Brees, and Malcom Floyd, an inconsistent receiver in his age 31 season who has caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games, missing 9 games over the past 2 years. Antonio Gates will be his favorite target, unless the 32 year old, who has also missed 9 games over the past 2 years, gets hurt.

Finally, they’ll be without left tackle Jared Gaither, leaving undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the blindside on a line already with major weaknesses at left guard and right tackle. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback who should bounce back from a down year last year (he had 14 touchdowns to 6 interceptions in his final 8 games, a sign of a turnaround) and he’s done well with limited help in the past before, but this might just be asking too much of him.

There’s also the issue of the Chargers’ early season struggles, especially on the road. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 2-9 ATS on the road during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era. The Raiders crowd will be amped up getting a Monday Night Football home game, a rarity for a franchise that has had a rough past decade or so (9 straight years without the playoffs).

All that being said, I’m taking the Chargers. I’m just not particularly confident about it. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. That’s not particularly impressive, but all the Chargers need to do is win here as small underdogs and I think they should be able to do that against an opponent who, like their early opponents last year, isn’t very good. Rather than putting 1 unit on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting 2 on the money line because 1 point games are rare. It’s not worth the extra -15 juice to get the +1.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 24 (+105) 2 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bears, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

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For those of you who followed me in the offseason, you’ll know that I did a lot of work to identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams to get ahead of the odds makers, bet them until they caught up or the teams proved him wrong, and make some money. Unfortunately, I got kind of screwed over week 1 or two of my overrated teams and two of my underrated teams are playing each other.

This game features the former. The Bears were 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game in 2010 and last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down. Brandon Marshall comes in to bolster their receiving corps and Mike Martz leaves as offensive coordinator, which is addition by subtraction because they never fit his scheme. Their offensive line is still a mess, but the Giants won the Super Bowl last year with the league’s worst offensive line in pass blocking efficiency. Jay Cutler has proven in the right scheme (not Martz’ where he had to drop back 7 steps on every play), that he can be very tough to sack (in his final year in Denver, he was sacked on 6.0% of pressured snaps, the lowest percent for any quarterback in the last 4 years). The defense will be solid as always, even with their linebackers aging, with strong defensive line and secondary play.

Meanwhile, the Colts have an over/under of 5.5 coming into the season. When an over/under win total is 6 or lower, the over hits about 2 of 3 three times. I wish I liked more of the lower over/under totals this year for prop bets, but I do like the Colts. Andrew Luck doesn’t have much of a supporting cast, but he should prove to be a franchise quarterback from the word go and with an easy schedule, they should be able to at least match the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Besides, since the start of a 16 game season, teams that regress 8 wins win on average 5.0 more the following season. Obviously losing Peyton Manning hurts, but Andrew Luck and maybe a few breakout players will make them better than people think.

So who am I going with? Well, it’s not an easy decision, but I’m going with the Bears, simply because this is Andrew Luck’s 1st NFL start and he gets an awfully tough test. I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams.

Luck is no ordinary rookie quarterback, but the Bears defense is no ordinary defense. The linebackers get all the hype, but their defensive line is very strong led by Julius Peppers and underrated defensive tackle Henry Melton and they have a very underrated secondary, led by cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. Even if Urlacher isn’t his usual self, they should be able to hold Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense in check. Remember, Luck doesn’t have a lot of help. He should make the receiving corps and offensive line look better than they are, just like he did in college, but they don’t run the ball well. On the defensive side of the ball, there’s not much he can do and a suddenly explosive Bears offense should be able to move the ball well against it, even with guys like Vontae Davis, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis. I’m taking the home team for a small bet.

Chicago Bears 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -9.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

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I identified Buffalo as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They were 5-2 last year before injuries struck and averaging 30.1 points per game. Then Fitzpatrick, who was 155 of 229 (67.7%) for 1739 yards (7.6 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions through 7 games, broke some ribs which hampered his ability to play for the rest of the season, as he finished by completing 198 of 340 (58.2%) for 2093 yards (6.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, leading the offense to 18.1 points per game.

They also lost key members of their offensive line to injury shortly after that, which is important because up until that point, they were the league’s best offensive line, allowing just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games. Fitzpatrick has proven he can make throws and move the chains when he has time, but he threw 8 interceptions to 2 touchdowns under pressure last year and his under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 53.3%, 3rd worst in the NFL. Eric Wood is back, but Demetress Bell is not, instead being replaced by 2nd round rookie Cordy Glenn. If he can hold up, Fitzpatrick should have a solid year. And I haven’t even mentioned Fred Jackson, who looked like an MVP candidate through 10 games before getting hurt.

Now, Fitzpatrick is obviously not a proven commodity. There’s a chance his 7 game stretch last year was just a fluke, but he probably isn’t as bad as he was in their final 9 games either and as long as he is solid, the Bills should be able to field a competitive team. They have two great running backs in Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, a great offensive line, and a much improved defense. Only 2 teams had fewer than the 29 sacks they had last year and 9 of those 29 sacks came in one game against Washington’s terrible offensive line. No one had more than 6 sacks and only 3 players had more than 3 sacks.

Now they add Mario Williams, one of the best pass rushers in the league, Mark Anderson, who had had 15 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 420 pass rush snaps last season, an incredible 13.6% rate. They also return Kyle Williams, ProFootballFocus’ #1 defensive tackle in 2010, to a line that already had Marcell Dareus, the 2nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He should be even better in his 2nd year in the league and all of a sudden, the Bills have one of the best defensive lines in the league and a very solid defense.

That defense should continue to stifle a Jets offense that scored just 1 touchdown all preseason and that was with their 3rd team offense against a 3rd team defense (the guy who caught it was a final cut). You can argue that Tebow’s performance was a fluke and that he’ll be better in real games in a system he fits better, but you can’t argue that Sanchez’ was and he’s still the starting quarterback. Sanchez was a very overrated quarterback over the first 2 years of his career and was exposed last season. He’s completed 55.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA and 55 touchdowns to 51 interceptions in his career and actually has a worse career QB rating than Tebow, who has the lower completion percentage, but the higher YPA and better TD/INT rate.

He might even be worse this season for two reasons. The former is his confidence. He was reportedly rattled and “floored” when the Jets traded for Tebow, according to receiver Santonio Holmes. That’s not what you want to see. The latter reason is his receiving corps. I know they were bad last season, but they look even worse this season. Santonio Holmes can’t stay healthy and 2nd round rookie Stephen Hill is incredibly raw. If there’s one area where the Bills’ defense is susceptible, it’s at cornerback with a rookie and a 2nd year player starting, but the Jets don’t have the receiving talent at all to take advantage.

The Bills should win the battle upfront defensively with their great defensive line, in addition to winning the battle in the secondary. Sanchez is really bad under pressure. He took a sack on 23.8% of pressured snaps last year, 4th worst in the league, and his under pressure accuracy percentage of 49.0% was dead last in the league. The Jets actually have a decent offensive line, except right tackle Austin Howard, but Sanchez makes them look worse than they are. The Bills’ defensive line will also to that to them.

The Jets best chance of winning this game is if they can establish the run. The Bills shouldn’t be nearly as susceptible to the run as they were last year, when they ranked 27th in YPC, because of their improved defensive line and generally strong front 7. Besides, it’s not like the Jets have the running back talent to effectively run a conservative, run heavy offense, at least not until Tebow becomes the starting quarterback, functions as a much needed 2nd running back, and opens things up on the ground for Shonn Greene the way he did for Willis McGahee last year.

The Jets have a very good defense that should be able to keep the Bills’ offense in check, but I like the Bills to make enough plays come out victorious here. The Jets don’t have the kind of pass rush to beat Buffalo’s great offensive line and a healthy Fitzpatrick should be able to move the chains with consistency, aided by a good running game. Besides, I’m basically going to be betting on my underrated teams blindly until the spreads catch up or the teams prove me wrong. This spread is not accurate saying these two teams are evenly matched (granted, with juice).

Buffalo Bills 17 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3 (-135) 2 units

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Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

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When I looked at the week 1 games a few months ago, this one stood out to me. There was a reason. I bet the Falcons as road favorites in Chicago week 1 last year and got burned as the Falcons proved that their struggles on the road were more important than their talent edge and lost pretty easily. Obviously, I had that game in mind and I was nervous to bet the Falcons in a similar situation this year week 1, especially in Kansas City, a pretty tough place to play.

The Chiefs aren’t a great team, but they can definitely win some games and pull some upsets if you let them play their game. They have a strong defense which should be even better this season with the emergence of Justin Houston, a budding star at linebacker. The Chiefs have been starved for another pass rushing option after Tamba Hali for years and Houston worked his way into the starting lineup last season and had 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 207 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.6%. It’s no coincidence that they had 20 of their 27 sacks in the 7 games Houston started. His emergence should be able to make up for the dropdown from Brandon Carr to Stanford Routt at cornerback.

On the offensive side of the ball, they don’t have a very good quarterback, but they can run the ball with the best of them with Jamaal Charles coming back and Peyton Hillis coming in at running back behind an improved run blocking offensive line with Eric Winston coming in. They plan to have a very conservative offense and rely on their running game and defense to make Matt Cassel’s life easy. They made the playoffs with this formula in 2010, winning the division with a record of 10-6 and though I didn’t predict it (I don’t think Matt Cassel can keep up the 1.6% interception rate he had in 2010, considering his career rate is 2.9%, excluding 2010), it can definitely happen again in 2012.

However, they’re going to have a very tough time playing good defense and stopping an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. The Chiefs are missing Tamba Hali with suspension, which pretty much defeats the emergence of Houston and they could be without Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers. Those are their top 3 defensive players. Without their top pass rusher and possibly without their top cornerback and top middle linebacker, they’re going to have a tough time stopping the Falcons, even at home in Kansas City. I don’t think this line fully takes that into account as it’s only moved 2 points from 2-3 months ago to now.

That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like. Besides, in 2010, when the Chiefs made the playoffs, they didn’t do well against good competition like the Falcons almost certainly are. They went just 2-5 against teams that were .500 or better, including playoffs, and 8-2 against teams that were sub .500. One of their two wins came against the early season Chargers week 1, in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards and their 3 scores came on a long touchdown run, a pick six, and a punt return touchdown. The Chargers avenged that defeat with a 31-0 victory later in the season. The other came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were starting 3rd string quarterback Todd Bauman. Their 5 losses, meanwhile, came by a combined 88 points. I think they could see another big loss to a tough team this week.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (+100) 2 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

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I didn’t have the Vikings listed as one of my underrated teams in the league, but maybe I should have. They had incredibly bad luck during their 3-13 season last year, going 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had the point differential of a team that should have won 5 or 6 games. A full season of Christian Ponder (who didn’t take over until a few weeks into the season and then got hurt) will also help. In the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league last season. He should be improved in his 2nd year in the league and also gets a new left tackle, Matt Kalil, which will really help him.

The Jaguars also have a 2nd year quarterback in Blaine Gabbert, but he looked like much more of a lost cause last year. He might have looked alright during stretches in the preseason, but that’s the preseason so it doesn’t mean a whole lot. If I had to pick one of these two 2nd year quarterbacks to improve this season, it’d be Ponder. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson won’t help Gabbert as much as people seem to think. Blackmon is a mere rookie and rookie receivers tend to struggle, even 1st rounders.

Discounting Jones and Green, since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007.

That just proves how special Julio Jones’ and AJ Green’s rookie years were, but I don’t see that happening for Blackmon. It’s too improbable. Jones and Green also had the luxury of facing SEC defenses in college, the closest thing you’ll get to NFL caliber defenses in college, while Blackmon shredded the Big 12, which isn’t nearly as close. Robinson meanwhile, really struggled this offseason and preseason, which makes sense since at this time last year he was a final cut of the Chargers. He was the prototypical one year wonder signing and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he didn’t do anything of note this year.

Any improvement Gabbert and the passing game makes will be nullified by a decline in their running game. Maurice Jones-Drew accounted for 47.7% of the team’s yards from scrimmage last season, the most since OJ Simpson was not only a free man, but still playing football. Simpson set the record in 1974. However, the combination of his holdout and his high level of usage over the past 3 years suggests, at least, a slightly down year from MJD this year and he could definitely do his best 2011 Chris Johnson impression. Even if he doesn’t, he’ll barely play in this one as he works his way back. Rashad Jennings is a nice back, but he won’t be able to replace everything MJD did for them last year in this game.

The Vikings are also missing a stud running back as Adrian Peterson looks like he’ll be a game time decision roughly 9 months roughly from a torn ACL. Even if he does play, it’ll be as a backup to Toby Gerhart. Gerhart, like Jennings, is a nice back, but he’s not Adrian Peterson. The positive thing for the Vikings is that AP isn’t as much of their offense as MJD was for the Jaguars last year. The Vikings figure to be an improved team this year, while the Jaguars could be even worse.

In the last 6 seasons (2006-2011), only one team, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn and the 2009 Cleveland Browns, had fewer yards than the Jaguars did last year (2076). Even the Jimmy Clausen led Panthers in 2010 had more yards. Gabbert was that bad. In a passing league, that is not a recipe for winning games. Since 2006, 21 teams have averaged 6.0 YPA or worse. Of those 21 teams, 19 won 5 or fewer games, none won more than 7 and as a group they averaged 3.9 wins per season and 14.8 points per game. In order for the Jaguars to have averaged 6.1 YPA last year, on 469 attempts, they would have had to throw for 2861 yards, 682 more than they actually did. They may improve this year, but I don’t think they’ll improve that much.

And yet, this line essentially says these two are even (3 points is standard for home field advantage), which I don’t think is true. I also don’t like this matchup for the Jaguars. The Vikings’ back 7 is pretty bad in coverage, which is why they ranked 30th against the pass, allowing 8.1 YPA last year, despite 50 sacks. However, Blaine Gabbert really struggles with pressure in his face and the Vikings can pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the league.

Gabbert ranked 2nd worst in the NFL with a 52.9% accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns) and worst in the NFL taking a sack on 26.1% of his pressured drop backs. Unless he is a dramatically different quarterback in the face of pressure from last year to this year, he doesn’t figure to be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s poor back 7 in coverage. The Vikings 6th ranked run defense from 2011 should be able to stop Jennings and the Jaguars will have trouble moving the football. Ponder, meanwhile, won’t against a Jacksonville defense missing top cornerback Derek Cox and top linebacker Daryl Smith with injury.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Minnesota -4 (-105) 2 units

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