2012 Week 1 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Broncos, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

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Hey Peyton Manning, welcome back to the NFL. Here on your left we have Mr. Woodley and on your right we have Mr. Harrison and what’s that hairy thing in the distance, why it’s Troy Polamalu. In all seriousness, Peyton Manning could not have asked for a tougher week 1 test. The Steelers were the league’s best scoring defense last year (14.2 points per game) and they did that despite a league low 15 turnovers. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

They also had several key injuries on defense last year. Both outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley missed time, which forced Jason Worilds to step into the starting lineup and Lawrence Timmons to move from inside linebacker to outside linebacker. Worilds did fine, though he certainly wasn’t as good as Woodley or Harrison would have been, but Timmons was awful. Clearly not a natural pass rusher, he had just 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback pressure on 114 pass rush snaps in 4 starts, a pathetic 2.6% rate.

Timmons was ProFootballFocus’ highest rated middle linebacker in 2010, so him being inside for all 16 games will definitely help their defense. The only real losses they had defensively were to marginal starting cornerback William Gay, washed up middle linebacker James Farrior, and injured defensive lineman Aaron Smith. If you can believe it, the Steelers’ defense might actually be better this season than last and even if it isn’t, they look poised for their SEVENTH top-3 scoring defense since 2004.

Things aren’t quite as good on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers hopes for an improved offensive line took a huge blow when rookie David DeCastro tore his MCL and when fellow rookie Mike Adams struggled in the preseason and lost his starting job to incumbent Max Starks. Willie Colon represents an upgrade at left guard as long as he’s healthy (the former right tackle has played in 1 game in the last 2 seasons), but other than that, this is the same offensive line that surrendered 5 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures to the Broncos in the playoffs last year. Doom and Gloom will give them trouble. The good news is that Ben Roethlisberger isn’t dealing with the lower leg problems he was dealing with last year, which will allow him to evade more sacks and probably help him improve upon a 22 for 40 for 289 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception performance.

The 2nd offensive issue has to do with Mike Wallace’s holdout. Wallace missed most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in which is never a good thing. Even if he didn’t get out of shape like Chris Johnson did last year, missing all that practice time will hurt him. Luckily, Antonio Brown was here all offseason and Wallace is still fast enough to be a pretty damn effective deep decoy, freeing Brown up to work one-on-one with a defensive back, which is a tough cover for the defender. Remember, Brown had 677 receiving yards to Wallace’s 393 in their last 8 games last year.

The final offensive issue is at running back. Rashard Mendenhall may or may not play just over 8 months removed from a torn ACL, but if he does play, he won’t be effective. Maybe Adrian Peterson can come back from a torn ACL that quickly and be fine, but Mendenhall won’t be his normal self. They’d be smart to hold him out of this one, especially since they themselves first predicted he’d miss the first 6 weeks of the season and then the first 3. Isaac Redman was supposed to be his replacement, but he’s dealing with groin and hip problems that made him look pretty slow in the preseason. He’ll probably get the start, but Jonathan Dwyer, who is finally in shape and had a great preseason, might be their best option on early downs, even though he only has 22 career carries.

The Steelers should be still able to put points on the board because Denver’s defense isn’t very good. People like to say this is an 8 win team adding a future Hall of Fame quarterback. That’s true on the surface, but when you look deeper, this team played as well as a 5 or 6 win team last year, when you look at their point differential and their Pythagorean Expectation. They won a lot of close games and whether you believe that was luck or some kind of divine Tebow magic, it probably won’t happen again this year. They had the league’s 24th ranked scoring defense and 25th ranked scoring offense.

The pass rush for the Broncos is strong with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, but if Ben Roethlisberger can evade the pass rush like he normally does, he should be able to shred up a pretty poor back 7. Champ Bailey is the only above average back 7 player (not counting Miller because he rarely drops into coverage) and he’s heading into his age 34 season so he’s no sure thing anymore. Peyton Manning will make the offense better, but there won’t be a ton he can do about the defense. The Broncos ranked 18th in points per play allowed last year, so even if they’re on the field less with the offense moving better, they’ll still surrender yards and points.

There’s also the question of how much better Peyton Manning will make the offense. He’ll definitely be an upgrade over Tim Tebow. Even the biggest Tebow fan has to admit that. However, there are a lot of reasons to believe he won’t be his normal self, especially early in the season. He’s 36 years old. His neck has been operated on 4 times in the last 2 years. He hasn’t played NFL football that counts in almost 2 years. He is going to be forced to adjust to a new city, a new team, new teammates, and a completely new playbook for the first time in his career.

He no longer will be able to play half of his games in a dome, but rather he’ll have to play half of his games at high elevations. In 2008, when he missed Training Camp and the Preseason, he completed just 62.2% of his passes, averaged 6.8 YPA, and threw 12 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in his first 8 games, as his team went 4-4.

He was also beginning to noticeably decline in 2010, with his lowest QB rating since 2002 (91.9), his lowest completion percentage since 2007 (66.3%), for his YPA since his rookie year in 1998 (6.9), his worst TD:INT ratio since 2002 (33:17), and his worst win-loss record since 2001 (10-6). He displayed weaker arm strength, both noticeably, and as evidenced by his 6.9 YPA and his 36.8% accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) on balls that go 20+ yards through the air, 26th out of 37 eligible quarterbacks. For reference, that statistic stood at 42.4% in 2009 and 43.6% in 2010. And that was 4 neck surgeries and 2 years ago with a much more familiar supporting cast.

He’s also not working with the best supporting cast. They were the league’s best running team last year, but that will change without Tim Tebow. Willis McGahee is now heading into his age 31 season and could be getting close to being done, especially without Tebow opening things up on the ground for him, and they don’t have a true #2 back.

Receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas have plenty of promise, but they’re also inexperienced. He should be able to get the most out of them, especially Decker, but it’s not like he’s throwing to Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark or even Pierre Garcon. At best, Decker is comparable to Austin Collie (his #3 receiver in 2010) and he’ll probably lead this team in receiving. There’s also the issue of their 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pass blocking efficiency. Peyton Manning will make them look better than they are as they go from protecting the blindside of the quarterback who holds the ball the longest to the one with one of the quickest releases. However, it’s still not a great offensive line.

I really think the Broncos are being overrated, especially early in the season, because it’s “Peyton Manning joining a 8 win team,” when in reality, this wasn’t exactly an 8 win team and Peyton Manning won’t exactly be Peyton Manning, especially early. Meanwhile, the Steelers figure to be one of the best teams in the league again this year and provide a very tough test defensively for Peyton Manning. Manning’s early schedule is brutal (vs. Pittsburgh, @ Atlanta, vs. Houston, vs. Oakland, @ New England) and I look forward to betting against him often early in the year, as I will here, taking the Steelers in a minor “upset.” I also like getting Ben Roethlisberger as an underdog, as he’s 15-10 ATS in that situation in his career. Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting 4 on the money line because 1 point games are rare. It’s not worth the extra -20 juice to get the +1.5.

Update: James Harrison will surprisingly miss this game. This doesn’t change my pick though. The Steelers still have a loaded defense and Jason Worilds played pretty well in his absence last season.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +110 (4 units)

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions Week 1 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

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For those if you who didn’t follow me in the offseason, I did a lot of work in an effort to find the 5 most underrated and 5 most overrated teams going into the season. The idea is simple. Every year, 5 teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before make the playoffs, including one team with 5 or fewer wins the previous year and roughly 25% of teams who won 6 or fewer games the previous year. Likewise, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 or fewer wins. One team goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs and vice versa. In fact, on average, a team’s record changes by 3 wins in either direction each season. I termed this change “points of parity.” 1.8 teams change by 7+ points of parity, 4.4 teams have 6+ points of parity, 7 have 5+ points of parity, 11.3 have 4+ points of parity, 15.5 have 3+, etc. For more on this in a 7 part series, click here.

What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. Unfortunately, I got screwed over, at least for the first week of the season. Two of my underrated teams (Chicago and Indianapolis) are playing each other this week, as are two of my overrated teams (Baltimore and Cincinnati).

This game I lucked out with as it has one of my underrated teams facing one of my overrated teams. If you’ve been following me this offseason, you know why I think the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated, but I’ll repeat myself here for anyone who hasn’t been following. For Detroit, in order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

For St. Louis, they improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The fact that this line is so low, -7.5, solidifies my belief that the Rams are underrated and the Lions are overrated.  I believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 80% of the money is on Detroit, yet the line has dropped from -9 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7.5. They really want us to bet Detroit. The odds makers seem to agree that St. Louis is underrated and Detroit is overrated and that these two teams are more evenly matched than you’d think and they’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

I’m not saying St. Louis is better than Detroit. I have St. Louis winning 9 games with an easier schedule and Detroit winning 7 with a harder schedule, but it could easily be the other way around if the schedules were switched. Still, there’s a lot of line value and I think at the end of the year, we’re going to look back at this line and wonder why it wasn’t Detroit -3 (which, because Detroit is at home, would suggest they’re evenly matched).

Detroit obviously has the better passing game, but that’s about it. As good as Detroit’s defensive line is, St. Louis’ defensive line is comparable with 2nd year player Robert Quinn, who excelled in a situational role last year, stepping into the starting lineup opposite Chris Long, one of the game’s best pass rushers. Inside, they have Kendall Langford, a solid starter and free agent acquisition, and 1st round rookie Michael Brockers, though the latter is out for this game with a high ankle sprain.

As bad as St. Louis’ offensive line was last year, they should be better this year. They get Rodger Saffold back from injury on the left side and add Scott Wells at center, leaving left guard and right tackle as the only two holes. It’s not great, but it’s not as bad as it seems and the new quick throw offense that the Rams are putting in, similar to the one Bradford played well in as a rookie, will make life easier for Bradford and the offensive line. Their offensive line is comparable to Detroit’s decent offensive line, which has an aging Jeff Backus at left tackle, a mediocre Gosder Cherilus at right tackle, and an interior offensive line that struggles to open up holes on the ground.

Whatever huge advantage Detroit has at quarterback and wide receiver is nullified by St. Louis obvious advantages on the ground and in the secondary. The Rams secondary was ravaged by injuries last year, but adds Cortland Finnegan, one of the league’s top cornerbacks, through free agency, as well as two promising rookies in Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, and returns former starter Bradley Fletcher back from injury. Detroit’s secondary was torched all throughout last year and will continue to be torched this season, especially now that starter Eric Wright is gone and replaced with either 3rd round rookie Bill Bentley, or veteran Drayton Florence, cut by the Broncos earlier this week. Also likely gone for this game are safety Louis Delmas and cornerback Chris Houston with injury, leaving them without a capable starter in the secondary.

On the ground, Detroit is without Jahvid Best (injury) and Mikel Leshoure (suspension), leaving Kevin Smith, a mediocre runner who has a career 3.9 YPC, to start against an improved Rams run defense, even without Michael Brockers. Steven Jackson, meanwhile, remains the workhorse for the Rams until he gets hurt and he should have a huge game against a Detroit run defense that ranked 30th, allowing 5.0 YPC last season. That, along with the defense holding the Lions’ offense in check, will make life easier for Sam Bradford as he tries to move the ball against a very poor secondary, which he should be able to do, even without much talent at wide receiver. The running game will also force the defensive line to respect the run and will help the offensive line pass block a talented Detroit pass rush.

The Rams are my pick of the week. For one, I picked Detroit as one of my overrated teams before the season and St. Louis as one of my underrated teams before the season. Two, I love doing the opposite of what the odds makers want, which is clearly to bet Detroit in this one. Three, I feel these teams are evenly matched and therefore there’s a lot of line value, even at -7.5 in Detroit. I’m taking St. Louis to win and cover, though I’m much more confident about the latter than the former.

St. Louis Rams 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+290)

Pick against spread: St. Louis +7.5 (-120) 5 units

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

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I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams, with Wilson doing so here for the Seahawks. The one major difference between Wilson and the 4 other guys on that list is that he was not a 1st round pick. The history of non-1st round picks starting week 1 since 1994 is not pretty. There have been only 4 to do so before Wilson. They all listed below.

Chris Weinke 2001- 4th round pick, 54.3%, 5.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns to 19 interceptions

Quincy Carter 2001- 2nd round pick, 51.1%, 6.1 YPA, and 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions

Kyle Orton 2005- 4th round pick, 51.6%, 5.1 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

Andy Dalton 2011- 2nd round pick, 58.1%, 6.6 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

There’s a reason why non-1st round pick quarterbacks start so infrequently as rookies. This makes a lot of sense. Rookie quarterbacks in general struggle more than the rest of the league and non-1st round picks don’t exactly have a history of success in the NFL, especially recently. Wilson will be one of just 9 non-1st round pick starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season.

NFL drafting is generally a crapshoot. However, the one thing NFL teams seem to be pretty foolproof at doing is not letting starting quarterbacks fall out of the 1st round of the draft. Obviously, not all 1st round pick quarterbacks work out, but it’s almost impossible to find a starting quarterback after the 1st round. If you possess the baseline tools to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, you’re going to go in the 1st round, even if your accuracy or footwork or mechanics needs a lot of work. Almost always, if a quarterback falls out of the 1st round, it’s because there’s something majorly wrong with him, something preventing him from being a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Could Russell Wilson follow in Andy Dalton’s footsteps and buck the trend? I wouldn’t rule it out, but I’m not going to predict it. Wilson had a strong preseason, which is how he won this job, completing 63.5% of passes for 8.5 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 1 interception. However, only one of his games came against a 1st team defense and the preseason is generally meaningless because both offenses and defenses are using such vanilla schemes. Expecting Wilson to defy history because of how he fared in a few preseason games is ridiculous.

That being said, Wilson is better than John Skelton, Arizona’s quarterback. John Skelton had an awful preseason, completing 56.0% of his passes for an average of 5.2 YPA and 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions. This is more meaningful than Wilson’s numbers because it’s basically what we’ve seen from Skelton in his career. In his career, he’s completed 52.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions (in case you were wondering, Skelton was a 4th round pick). He led the Cardinals to a 6-2 record in 8 games last year, but largely because his defense allowed 19.0 points per game in those 8. Skelton led the Cardinals to 1.29 points per drive last season, which would have ranked 28th in the league last year. He’s not the answer at quarterback for the Cardinals (neither is Kevin Kolb), but he probably won’t have that much worse of a season than Wilson.

Skelton is also working with the far better receiving corps, while Wilson has a slight edge on the offensive line (though neither is very good). The Seahawks will have the edge on the ground if Marshawn Lynch can play, but if he can’t (he’s currently suffering from back spasms), then, all of a sudden, Arizona’s duo of Chris Wells and Ryan Williams, running behind an actually decent run blocking offensive line (for as awful as their pass protection is, Arizona was actually ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked run blocking offensive line last year), gets the edge over Robert Turbin and Leon Washington for the Seahawks. Defensively, things are pretty evenly matched. Seattle had the edge last season, allowing just 19.7 points per game to Arizona’s 21.8, but Arizona allowed 18.3 points per game in their final 9 games last year, as their young defense finally came into its own. Seattle also lost David Hawthorne this offseason and had several players have career years last year, something that might not happen again.

These teams are actually pretty evenly matched. I think Seattle is the better team, but it’s going to be a close, low scoring game either way in Russell Wilson’s debut (remember how much rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle and those were mostly 1st rounders). This line should be something like -2 or -3, in favor of Arizona, the home team, (3 points is for home field advantage). Instead, it’s the opposite, -3 in favor of the road team. Seattle is a notoriously bad road team, going 11-31 SU and 14-27 ATS on the road since 2007. In fact, NFC West divisional games are typically won by the home team. This makes sense as the NFC West typically features evenly matched teams that are better at home than on the road. NFC West teams are 87-81 SU at home over the past 5 seasons and 47-117 SU on the road. Over that time period, NFC West teams are 23-35 ATS on the road in the division.

I’m taking Arizona here and it’s one of my favorite plays of the week. I think Seattle, as a team, is being overrated right now because of Russell Wilson’s strong preseason, when, in reality, history says he’ll struggle this season and I expect that to be especially true early in the season. We’re getting a lot of line value here. I don’t like Seattle, a bad road team, as road favorites against a fairly evenly matched team (especially, potentially with the Seahakws minus Lynch) in a division when divisional matchups tend to be won by the home team (both SU and ATS).

Arizona Cardinals 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick (+125)

Pick against spread: Arizona +3 (-120) 3 units

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Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)

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Tampa Bay is one of my underrated teams. In case you haven’t been following throughout the offseason, what I attempted to do this year was identify 5 underrated and 5 overrated teams going into the season and then bet them pretty much blindly for the first few weeks of the season until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. I think the Buccaneers are somewhere in between the 10 win team they were in 2010 and the 4 win team they were in 2011.

In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

The Panthers, meanwhile, are a little bit overrated right now. I agree they’ll improve their 6 wins from last season (especially since their Pythagorean Expectation was about 7.5 wins last season), but I don’t think they’re quite a playoff team yet. Cam Newton could have a bit of a sophomore slump. He won’t be bad or anything, but this was the league’s #5 scoring offense that year. He can regress while still leading a good offense, just not the elite one they had last year. It’ll be up to the defense to compensate and I don’t think they can. The addition of rookie Luke Kuechly and the return of Jon Beason from injury in their linebacking corps will help, but they’re still weak on the defensive line and in the secondary, which are more important.

The Panthers will probably be about a 7 or 8 win team this year. I think they’re a year away. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, figure to be right in that same area, between the 4 they won last year and the 10 they won in 2010. These teams are pretty evenly matched, with Carolina having the better offense and Tampa Bay having the better defense. For that reason, this line should be Tampa Bay -3 because it’s in Tampa Bay, but it’s the opposite, Carolina -3. There’s a lot of line value with Tampa Bay, an underrated team, and I like them to win a close game between evenly matched teams at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick (+115)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +3 (-130) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers Week 1 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)

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Anyone who has been following the website during the offseason knows I’m not particularly optimistic about the 2012 49ers. I have them as my team that goes from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs (there’s one every season) and my team that sees a win decrease of 6+ games (also one every season). They had 10 turnovers last year, an NFL record. Unfortunately, turnovers and takeaways are fairly inconsistent on a yearly basis. Teams that have fewer than 20 turnovers win, on average, 2.69 fewer games the next season. Those teams average 26.3 turnovers per year the following year. Meanwhile, teams that have 35 or more turnovers average 28.3 turnovers the following year.

The same is true for takeaways. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers and 2 fewer wins in their next season. The 49ers forced 38, for a turnover differential of +28, best in the league over the past decade. Teams with differential of +15 or higher have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Teams with differentials of +15 or higher have a differential of, on average, +2.1 the following season. Teams with differentials of -15 or lower have a differential of +1.4 the following season. Teams with 20 takeaways or less average 25.8 takeaways the following season, while teams with 35 or more average 27.5 the following season.

Meanwhile, the 49ers also improved 7 games last year and teams that do that win, on average, 4.5 fewer games the next season. Along the same lines, since 2003, of the 16 teams who have gone from out of the playoffs to a 1st round bye (like the 49ers did last year), 7 did the opposite thing the following season, and those teams won an average of 3.2 fewer games the following season. The 49ers also had tremendous luck with injuries last year, only losing Patrick Willis for 3 games. Defensively, they had 9 or 10 of 11 starters have career years. If guys get hurt at a more normal rate this year and say 5 of 10 guys regress slightly, it’ll be noticeable on the field and in the win total.

On top of that, I’ve followed the NFL long enough to know that teams without legitimate franchise quarterbacks don’t have staying power. You can have a good season or even a great season one year when everything else goes right, but you’ll never have the consistent success of the teams with elite quarterbacks. The 49ers are either a one year wonder or a team that’s going to take a step back this year. I lean towards the latter because I really respect Jim Harbaugh and Trent Baalke but they have to do something about the quarterback position eventually and, either way, they’ll regress this season.

The Packers also had more than 35 takeaways, fewer than 20 turnovers, and a turnover differential of higher than +15. Here’s why it won’t affect them as much. Defensively, they may have fewer turnovers, but they added 3 talented rookie defensive players in the first 2 rounds of the draft, and could get potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams, key players on a Packers defense that allowed the 2nd fewest points in the league in 2010, when they went to the Super Bowl.

Offensively, they have an elite franchise quarterback. Teams with elite franchise quarterbacks tend to be more immune from big shifts in turnover numbers. Peyton Manning and the Colts had 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times, while Tom Brady and the Patriots had 20 or fewer 3 times. Of those 8 combined times, 5 times the team had 20 or fewer turnovers the following season. Of the 3 times that didn’t happen, one is yet to be determined, because the Patriots did it last year, one was the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady for the season week 1, and the other was the 2008 Colts, who had a mere 21. Aaron Rodgers may throw more turnovers than the mere 6 he threw last year, but if he does, it’ll probably be something along the lines of the 11 he threw in 2010 or the 13 Tom Brady threw last year after throwing just 4 in 2010. The 49ers don’t have that luxury at quarterback.

Yes, the Packers may regress a little bit, but you can regress 2 or 3 games when you win 15 games and still be fine. Teams that improve 5 games in a season regress about 2.4 games the following season. The Packers don’t have every warning flag going off saying “Major regression!!! Major regression!!!” like the 49ers. They’ll be a 12 or 13 win team, which is what they’re averaged over the last 3 years (12.0) and compete for another Super Bowl. They’re a much better team than the 49ers, but this line (-5) doesn’t suggest it. What you see below are some Vegas odds from weeks 1-3 last season.

Detroit (+1) at Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (+9) at Houston

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Cleveland

Tennessee (+3) at Jacksonville

Seattle (+5.5) at San Francisco

Chicago (+7) at New Orleans

Houston (-3) at Miami

Dallas (-3) at San Francisco

San Diego (+7) at New England

St. Louis (+4.5) at NY Giants

Philadelphia (-3) at Atlanta

San Francisco (+3) at Cincinnati

NY Giants (+9) at Philadelphia

Kansas City (+15) at San Diego

Baltimore (-4) at St. Louis

Green Bay (-4) at Chicago

Those look comical to us now, but they were once legitimate lines. If you had predicted beforehand that teams like Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and Cincinnati would exceed expectations and teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia would do the opposite, that’s 15 wins (and one push) for you in 3 weeks easily. I identified San Francisco as an overrated team and will be betting against them pretty heavily until they stop being overrated or prove me wrong.

Even if the 49ers prove everything I wrote above wrong, I still like the Packers in this situation. If these two teams faced off last year, when everything was going right for the 49ers, I would have picked the Packers to win and cover against this line. San Francisco barely beat New Orleans at home. Green Bay is a superior and similar style team compared to New Orleans and this game is in Green Bay. As good as the 49ers’ defense is, the Saints still hung 32 points on them in San Francisco.

In fact, you look at how they did against elite quarterbacks in general (not counting Ben Roethlisberger because he was hurt), they allowed 316 and 311 yards to Eli Manning, 462 yards to Drew Brees, and, if you want to count them, 293 yards to Matt Stafford and 345 yards to Tony Romo (that game went into overtime, but Romo also missed time in the game with bruised ribs, so that evens it out). The 49ers have an amazing run defense, but their pass defense can be thrown on. They ranked a solid, but not elite 10th against the pass last year, allowing 6.9 YPA and that was with all 4 starting defensive backs having career years.

Aaron Rodgers and company will be able to move the ball. They won’t be able to run, but that’s not a big part of their offense anyway. I expect the Packers to score in the 30s here and, now on the road, I don’t expect Alex Smith and company to keep up. He could easily throw a couple picks if they get down early and get a head start on that increase in turnovers. Besides, it’s not smart to bet against the Packers. They were 11-6 ATS last year (including 7-2 ATS at home), which goes right along with their 35-19 ATS record from the last 3 seasons. The 49ers were 12-4-2 ATS, but that’s because they were so underrated for the first half of the season. After ripping off a 9-0-1 ATS stretch to start the season, they finished just 3-4-1 ATS. It’s one thing to have a strong ATS record when sneaking up on people like the 49ers did last year. It’s another thing to do it as defending Super Bowl champs. The Packers won’t sneak up on anyone this year either, but they’ll still be a covering machine. This is one of my favorite picks of the week.

Green Bay Packers 31 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -5 (-110) 4 units

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)

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I might be the biggest Giants doubter left out there. I believe that this is not an elite team, but a very good team that can get hot and play like an elite team for stretches. They did that down the stretch last season, but I think this season, we’re going to see them play like they normally play, pretty well, but not good enough to be considered among the elite teams in the league. That being said, this line is absolutely ridiculous. The Giants are -3.5 at home against the Cowboys, who they beat twice in 4 weeks last season, hanging 68 points on them, while allowing just 48. This line suggests that Cowboys are just a half point better than the Giants (add 3 for home field advantage).

Part of that is just that the Cowboys are being very overrated right now, once again. They’re a frequently overrated team because of their name and their status as America’s team, but they never seem to meet expectations and I think this season will be another instance of that. Their interior offensive line still sucks. In fact, it might be worse with Nate Livings, one of the worst interior offensive lineman in the league last year, coming in at left guard and at right guard, it will be Mackenzy Bernadeau, a career backup and former 7th round pick randomly given a starter’s salary and starting job in Dallas this offseason. Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland are gone and, as strange as it might sound, they might miss those two. Phil Costa, one of the worst centers in the league last year, returns, unfortunately.

They also lack depth in the receiving corps and at running back. The former is more important in this game because Jason Witten is unlikely to play. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are likely to play, after both dealt with injuries in the preseason, but it’s very concerning that the latter’s injury was a hamstring problem. Those things tend to linger and affect your ability to play at your normal level of play even if you do play. Austin missed 6 games with hamstring problems last year and was limited to just 43 catches for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns in 10 games last year, well off his career averages. Behind Bryant, Austin, and Witten, their backup receivers have a combined 37 career catches. John Phillips, who has 22 of those, will get the start in Witten’s likely absence, which is a major downgrade, both as a pass catcher and as a run blocker. Jason Witten is frequently one of the best run blocking tight ends in the league.

The Cowboys lack of depth at running back is notable because starter DeMarco Murray has injury issues dating back to his days at the University of Oklahoma. His primary backup is Felix Jones, but he’s never proven he can handle the load when given a chance to start and he’ll probably get hurt before Murray, given his history. The Cowboys added two new cornerbacks, Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr, after getting torched by the Giants last season, but only the latter will have much of a positive impact in this game. Rookie cornerbacks like Claiborne tend to take a year or so to get up to NFL speed. Even Patrick Peterson really struggled in coverage last year. Claiborne probably won’t have a very good 1st game in the NFL, which is notable because the Giants have two great receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. They won’t be able to contain both. The safety position and defensive line, especially with Jay Ratliff hurt, are also weaknesses and they still lack a complimentary pass rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware, so defense is still a problem and the Giants should be able to move the ball pretty easily.

The Giants are dealing with their own injuries at left tackle and cornerback, but it’s not a huge issue because they dealt with injuries there last year and still won the Super Bowl. The latter is not much of a concern at all. Yes, with William Beatty expected out, Sean Locklear is going to have his hands full with DeMarcus Ware, but Eli Manning, like his brother is one of the best in the league at throwing under pressure and avoiding sacks. Eli Manning’s under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 70.3% last season, which led the league. Meanwhile, his sack percentage (sacks per pressured drop back) was 12.4%, only behind Michael Vick. It’s because of this that he was able to win the Super Bowl despite having the worst offensive line in the league in terms of pass blocking efficiency. For example, Eli Manning was under pressure from DeMarcus Ware 12 times in 2 games last year with David Diehl starting in place of an injured Beatty, but only took 2 sacks. Eli will neutralize Ware again.

The injury at cornerback is slightly more concerning. Yes, Terrell Thomas missed all of last season with injury and Prince Amukamara, who is expected to miss this game with injury, didn’t have much of an impact as a rookie. Aaron Ross is gone, meaning Michael Coe will step into the starting lineup. Ross wasn’t great, so it’s not a major downgrade from what the Giants threw at the Cowboys last season, but up until the playoffs, the Giants didn’t really do a good job of stopping anyone. They allowed 25.0 points per game, including 24 per to the Cowboys in their two meetings and that was after they had their trio of defensive ends mostly healthy (Umenyiora did miss the first game). The Cowboys will be able to move the ball pretty well.

This is going to be a shootout, but the question is, can the Cowboys beat up with the Giants? I don’t think so. The Cowboys’ offensive line will be overwhelmed by the Giants pass rush and unlike Manning, Romo isn’t quite as bulletproof under pressure. His under pressure accuracy was 64.6% last year, pretty good, but not as good as Manning. His also took a sack on 20.5% of pressured snaps, 7th worst in the NFL. The Giants will get to him for a few sacks and stall a few drives and keep him pressured really for most of the evening. Both teams will be able to run the ball pretty well with good talent at running back. The Giants had the worse run defense last year, 4.5 YPC, and are now missing Chris Canty for the year, a talented starter for them last year at defensive tackle. The Cowboys allowed 4.1 YPC, but they’re also missing top defensive tackle Jay Ratliff have the worse interior offensive line so they won’t be able to fully take advantage of the Giants’ struggles against the run. Both teams will run pretty well, but neither team will distinguish itself from the other on the ground.

When it comes down to it, I like Eli Manning to outplay Tony Romo in this one once again. It’ll be a high scoring affair, but I think the Giants have the better team and they always seem to have the Cowboys’ number, beating them in 5 of their last 6 matchups. They also play much better football in the 1st half of the season, going 47-17 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Through week 9, they’re 40-25 ATS under Coughlin.

The Giants also have the situational edge as they’re playing in a “stand alone” week 1 game as defending Super Bowl Champs. Since the NFL started the traditional of having defending Super Bowl champions play in a week 1 “stand alone” game at home in 2002 (first on Monday Night Football, then Thursday Night Football, and this year on Wednesday Night Football because of some stupid political crap), the defending champ is 10-0 and covers 7 out of 10 times. Teams are normally very emotional and amped up after the pregame celebration and that translates to the field in a positive manner. I don’t think the Giants will break tradition here and I am fairly certain they will win and cover.

Prediction: New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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