2012 Week 10 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation through 8 games, the first time a team has done that since 1929 and that team folded after the season. Actually, they were also the first team to do that through 7 games since 1929 as well. However, they aren’t the worst team in the NFL. They don’t rank dead last in either rate of sustaining drives differential or yards per play differential (that distinction belongs to Jacksonville). They rank 24th and 31st respectively in those two statistics and that’s including sometime that the inferior Brady Quinn spent at quarterback.

The reason that those two important statistics say they’re slightly better than their record is their turnover differential. Through just 8 games, they are -20 in turnovers. Even if they tied the NFL single season record of -30 (record is -28 since merger), their turnover differential would be -10 in their final 8 games, two times better than it was in their first eight games. Besides, turnover differentials tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis, as you can see here. Turnovers aside, they’re not completely horrific.

We are getting line value with them even if you don’t take into account that Brady Quinn spent some time at quarterback. Cassel is the better quarterback and, at the very least, his interception rate will go back to his career average. If you average out those two real line calculations, you get -12 and this line is -12.5. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss, coming off a loss in San Diego this week. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot. Meanwhile, as well as the Steelers are playing, they’re still not a team built to blow people out and cover a 12 point spread like this without Troy Polamlau, with whom they allow about a touchdown less per game than without over the past few years.

We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean with Kansas City. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

That being said, it’s only a one unit play. Kansas City is too horrible to put more than that on them. They seem to have a knack for being blown out and it’s not just this season. Dating back to 2010, they’ve lost 14 games by 16 or more games, out of 23 total losses. Even from 2010-2011, a stretch in which they went 17-16, they still lost 9 or more by a blowout score. That could happen again here, but I do like the dog. The Steelers are also my survivor pick.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: KC 5 PIT 1

Final update: Sharps lean is exactly what I expected. People don’t like Pittsburgh, but no one really wants to take Kansas City either.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +12.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Broncos, Panthers

Denver Broncos (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-6)

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They should coast to a great record and at least the #3 seed in the AFC.

That being said, this game won’t be a walk in the park for them. The Panthers are an underrated bunch right now. Despite their record (2-6), they have only 1 loss by more than a touchdown and that was on Thursday Night Football against the Giants. I don’t put too much stock into what happens on Thursday Nights because it’s so tough to prepare to play a team on 3 days rest, so I don’t really hold that against Carolina too much, especially since that was week 3 and they’ve been competitive every week since.

Even weighting that loss to the Giants equal to the rest of their games, we are still getting line value with the Panthers. Using the yards per play differential method, we get Denver -1 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, we get Denver -5. If we average those out, we get Denver -3, which is 1.5 points lower than where this spread currently is. Also remember, while Denver has played a very tough schedule thus far, Carolina comes from by far the tougher of the two conferences. The AFC is just 13-23 against the NFC this year.

Carolina is also in a good spot as home dogs off a win as road dogs; they won as road dogs in Washington last weekend. Teams are 27-19 ATS in this spot since 2008 and if we go all the way back to 1989, that trend becomes 122-82 ATS. Meanwhile, they are probably dogs before being favorites. The early line for their game against Tampa Bay next week is Carolina -1.5, though that could change. Teams are 89-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, though that trend does shrink to 65-47 ATS since 2008 when the current game is non-divisional and their next game is divisional. Carolina could overlook non-conference Denver for Tampa Bay, I guess, but Denver is much more likely to overlook “crappy” non-conference Carolina.

Denver is also in a good spot as road favorites off a win as road favorites. Teams, in general, tend to cover in their 2nd straight road game. It’s most powerful when dealing with road dogs off a road loss, but road favorites off a win as road favorites is a trend too and Denver won as road favorites in Cincinnati last week. Teams are 48-29 ATS since 2002 in that spot. However, Denver is a massive public lean, the biggest of the week.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I think I’d be crazy to bet on Denver this week, given the circumstances, especially with some trends in Carolina’s favor. If there’s a sharps lean on this game, I might consider boosting it to a 3 unit significant play and make a play on the money line too.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 16 CAR 8

Final update: Didn’t see that coming. I’m not boosting this to 3 units, but I’m not dropping any units either. Denver is the biggest public lean of the week.

Denver Broncos 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +4.5 (-110) 2 units

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Houston Texans at Chicago Bears: Week 10 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (7-1) at Chicago Bears (7-1)

I’ve called Chicago the best team in the NFL on several occasions. It’s close, but they are the team I’d least want to play right now. Atlanta may be undefeated, but they’ve had a very easy schedule and aren’t blowing guys out like the Bears are, winning 5 of 8 by a touchdown or less, including games that should have been blowouts like home for Carolina, Oakland, and Dallas.

Chicago hasn’t had the toughest schedule either, but they are blowing teams out. Of their 7 wins, 5 have come by 10 or more (actually all 5 came by 16 or more). Of the two that didn’t, the outcome of only one was ever in down. They held a shutout against Detroit until 30 seconds left in the game when the Lions got a garbage time touchdown to make it 13-7 and a single digit win, but the outcome was never really in doubt. The Falcons have had at least 4 games where that was the case (Carolina, Dallas, Washington, and Oakland all could have ended in losses for Atlanta, I don’t really count Denver, as Atlanta established a big early lead).

Jay Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 games, which would be 12 in a row if you exclude their Thursday Night loss in Green Bay. Obviously, you can’t ignore that game, but it was a while ago, it was on short rest, and it was on the road against a tough opponent, so I don’t put much stock into it. They run the ball well. They play incredible defense, even though you can’t expect them to continue to score defensively at this rate the rest of the way because no one ever has.

However, with guys like Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright, they have so many talented defensive players. They’re 2nd in the league in points per game allowed. Offensively, they can run the ball and Jay Cutler is playing well. The Cutler/Marshall combination is deadly. The only issue is the offensive line, but Jay Cutler is historically so hard to sack, so they should be fine.

Of course, with two games against Houston and San Francisco on schedule in the next 2 weeks for the Bears, we’ll definitely have an answer of whether or not this is the Super Bowl favorite pretty soon. In a way, Houston and Chicago have had similar seasons. Both haven’t had the toughest schedule, but both are blowing out the teams they’ve faced. Both have points differentials above +100 (Houston +100, Chicago +113).

Both are defensive oriented teams that can run the ball and both have quarterbacks that may not be on that elite level, but can get it done. They’re not in the Alex Smith game manager category, but they’re not Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. Both teams have lost to the Packers, though the Bears’ loss to the Packers, as I mentioned earlier, is more excusable. The Texans played them more recently, at home, and lost by more, losing by 18 rather than 13.

The Texans do rank higher in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, ranking 5th and 2nd respectively, while Chicago ranks 13th and 4th respectively. As you can imagine, that suggests we are getting a little bit of line value with the Texans. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us Chicago -2 and yards per play differential gives us Houston -1 and when you average those out, you get a little bit less than the -1 in favor of Chicago this line currently is at.

That being said, there are 2 things to keep in mind with those numbers. The first is that those numbers treat every game equally. If not for that fluky loss to the Packers week 2, the Bears would rank better than the Texans in at least one of those statistics. Again, I’m not saying to ignore that game completely, but given the circumstances of the game and everything that’s happened since, I don’t think we should put too much stock into that.

The second is that, while neither has had a tough schedule, Chicago does come from the tougher conference. The NFC is 23-13 against the AFC this year. These two teams might be the best two teams in the NFL and they’re almost definitely in the top-3 right now, but I think Chicago is a little bit better right now and that this line should be at least -3 (3 points for home field). At -1, I think we’re getting line value with the Bears.

There aren’t a lot of relevant trends in play here. The Texans are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 89-50 ATS in since 2011, including 26-16 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008 (they host Jacksonville next week). However, when that next game is divisional, like it is for Houston, that record slips to 10-10 ATS since 2002, and 23-27 ATS since 1989. Given, that I’m going to stick with my claim that the Bears are the NFL’s best, take the superior home favorite of less than a field goal, and the Bears to win this game for a significant play.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Sharps lean: HOU 20 CHI 4

Final update: I’m going to disagree with the sharps here, something I’ll do on several occasions this week. I think Chicago is the better team.

Chicago Bears 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -1 (-110) 3 units

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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Titans

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-4)

Jake Locker returns this week for the Titans. It’s amazing. It’s almost as if his shoulder magically healed as soon as veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck had a bad game. Locker has more upside definitely and is the right quarterback for this team right now, because they’re not going anywhere fast and need to get the young former 1st rounder some experience. However, I don’t know if he’s really an upgrade over Hasselbeck short term. Hasselbeck was doing pretty well up until last week and overall this year, he completed 62.7% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Locker has yet to show himself to be better than that.

What Locker does inherit, however, is a team in a good situation, contrary to popular belief. The Titans got destroyed last week, but it was kind of a fluky loss. They got down big before they knew what hit them thanks to special teams blunders and turnovers, allowing 28 points off a pick six, a blocked punt, a fumble, and a long punt return.

Teams off a big loss like that do pretty well the following week. Dogs are 55-27 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more as a dog. Teams tend to be embarrassed, undervalued, and playing for pride off a loss like that and that should be especially true for the Titans since owner Bud Adams flipped out after the loss and basically said anyone could lose their job. Meanwhile, this line has shifted one point, from -5 to -6, after Tennessee’s loss, a sign that they’re undervalued even though, in reality, it was several fluky blunders that doomed them, not anything to do with their talent level. This line movement also happened in spite of Miami losing as road favorites in Indianapolis.

Speaking of Miami losing as road favorites in Indianapolis, teams are 24-35 ATS as home favorites of 3+ off a loss as road favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, Miami hosts divisional Buffalo on Thursday Night next week, something that could distract them. Favorites just 23-35 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites.

We are getting some line value with the Dolphins. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of -9.5 and when you average those out, it’s higher than the -6 this line is in actuality. The Titans have gotten blown out an awful lot this year and have the league’s worst points differential, worse than Kansas City, worse than divisional Jacksonville, worse than anyone. However, that’s more of just a reason why this isn’t a big play than why I’m not taking Tennessee. I like the spot the Titans are in and I don’t think Miami is a team that’s built to consistently blow people out.

Public lean: Miami (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: TEN 8 MIA 3

Final update: No change.

Miami Dolphins 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles

Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)

Last week, I enjoyed a relatively successful week. I hit 4 of my 6 big plays and went 9-5 overall, but it could have been a lot better. I hit my first 4 big plays and if I had hit my last 2, I would have enjoyed my best week ever, rather than just a strong week. I also was undefeated straight up until the Giants lost to the Steelers and I was actually thinking that maybe I could go undefeated 14-0 straight up, in which case I would have been kicking myself for not parlaying all the money lines and making a serious chunk of change. Instead I finished 11-3 and I was kicking myself for another reason.

I lost my last 2 plays, Dallas +4 and Philadelphia +3. The first one was the most agonizing as the Cowboys outplayed the Falcons and had a strong chance to cover blown by Orlando Scandrick making a series of boneheaded moves. The 2nd one didn’t feel good either. The Eagles weren’t nearly as close as the Cowboys were to covering, but the game went a similar way for them. Lots of yards and first downs, but only 13 points. The 447 yards they totaled were the 9th most since 1989 that a team has had and still scored 13 or less.

Angry from those two games, I tweeted (@stevenlourie) “Probably gonna start making Philadelphia and Dallas unbettable. They suck in a way statistics can’t quite capture.” I followed that up by tweeting, “Of course I tweet that right before I realize Eagles and Cowboys play next week. That game should be…something…” I hate overreacting to one week like that, but it was so true, so it wasn’t really an overreaction. I use statistics heavily when making these picks and I had been burned on several occasions with both of these teams, especially Philadelphia.

However, breaking down the game and finding the applicable trends early this week, I began to really like the Cowboys. I felt they were the least “sucky” of the two teams. They did have the statistical advantage (real line for this one is PK for the yards per play differential method and Philadelphia –1 for the rate of sustaining drives differential method). While these two teams do both suck in a way that statistics can’t measure, I thought maybe that would cancel out when they play each other and the statistics will be spot on.

The Cowboys held the edge in the trends as well. At +1, they were road dogs off a road loss. Road dogs off a road loss are 78-47 ATS since 2008. Dogs before being favorites are 89-50 ATS since 2011. Meanwhile, on Philadelphia’s side, they were divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs (in Washington next week). Teams are 14-47 ATS in that spot since 2002. They were divisional favorites off a 14+ MNF loss. Teams are 2-10 ATS in that spot since 2002. Finally, teams are 57-82 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs.

Well, what happened? The action started pouring in on Dallas and the line shifted. Philadelphia is now +1.5 at home and all of trends I referenced are moot. Maybe it was a blessing in disguise because I shouldn’t have been considering laying significant money on either of these teams in a game where literally anything can happen (and I mean anything). Maybe the Cowboys will prove I should have bet on them even as favorites.

Either way, I’m back to making these two teams unbettable this week. This is my lowest confident pick of the week and if I did zero unit picks, this would be one. I’m going to take the Eagles because I like getting Andy Reid as a dog. He’s 48-30 ATS as a dog since he took over in 1999, though just 11-10 ATS as a home dog. In a must win game where either coach could get fired at the end of the season if they lose here, I trust Reid and his 9 lives as a Head Coach more.

We’re also getting a chance to fade the public by taking Philadelphia, as Dallas is a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

Rather than putting 1 unit on the spread, I’m putting it on the money line (+110) because it’s not worth the extra 20 cents to get protection against a 1 point Dallas loss, but remember, this pick goes last in any confidence pool and would be a zero unit pick if I did them. Literally anything can happen in this one. I’m actually looking forward to it.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 13 PHI 1

Final update: Sharps seem to like Dallas, but I still have no clue.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Dallas Cowboys 19 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, 49ers, Rams

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to always take the home team. Since 2007, the NFC West is 104-77 in general at home and they have not only the best ATS winning percentage of any division in football in that time period, they also have the winning home/road winning ATS percentage disparity of any division in football in that time period.

Because of that, it means sense that went they meet for divisional matchups, the home team generally wins and that’s in fact the case. In divisional matchups, the home team is 38-25 ATS since 2007, including 23-12 ATS as home favorites and 7-1 ATS as double digit favorites, which the 49ers are here. The 49ers are also in a good spot as double digit home favorites off of a bye. Teams are 15-7 ATS in this spot since 2002.

The Rams, however, are in a good spot too as double digit divisional dogs are 47-27 ATS before being favorites, including 38-16 ATS before being non-divisional favorites. The Rams host the Jets next weekend and are expected to be favored at home. The Rams are coming off a 45-7 loss to the Patriots. Dogs are 77-49 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 28+ or more as a dog. As double digit dogs, those teams are 17-8 ATS. I know they’re coming off a bye, but dogs coming off a loss of 28+ and a bye are 9-4 ATS as dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, there’s a pretty heavy public lean on San Francisco.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

We’re also getting some line value with the Rams. Both the rate of sustaining drives differential metric and yards per play differential metric says this line should be -13.5. This line is -11.5. That might seem like the complete opposite of line value for the Rams, but remember their improving injury situation. Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold are both question, but expected to play.

Amendola is by far Bradford’s best receiver. Before he got hurt, he was accounting for close to 40% of their receiving yardage by himself. It’s no coincidence that the Rams, 4-1 ATS with him, went 1-2 ATS without him and didn’t win a single game, going from 3-2 to 3-5. Even in the game he got hurt, against Arizona, his absence was noticeable. After he left, Bradford completed just 2 of his final 9 passes. They still won because they had a lead when he got hurt and because Arizona sucks, but they really missed him in his 3 ½ game absence.

Saffold, meanwhile, is his left tackle and while he’s been without him for most of the year and had some success without him, he’s still a significant upgrade over the guys they’ve been trotting out to play left tackle. He’ll help an offensive line that has ranked 29th in pass block efficiency through 8 games this season. Bradford has done a good job of playing well in spite of injuries all around, something he didn’t do last year and something you can attribute to better coaching and a higher level of maturity, but getting Amendola and Saffold is only going to help him.

He should appear noticeably improved with those 2 healthy. Maybe not this week because San Francisco’s defense is so good, but he should still be able to cover the 11.5, when otherwise I would take the 49ers. It’s not a big play or anything though. I also like the under in this one. The under is 40-23 since 2007 in NFC West divisional games. Both of these teams have a higher ranked defense than offense and in their combined 16 games, the under is 10-5-1 this year.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean: STL 10 SF 6

Final update: No change.

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis +11.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 38.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: Week 10 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4)

Like Indianapolis +1 at Jacksonville, this game is one I really wished I would have made a play on last week. Like Jacksonville, Minnesota was a favorite last week in the early line for this game, -2.5, but now they are +2.5 here at home, a massive line movement. If they had been favorites here, we would have had three powerful trends working against Minnesota. For one, they would be divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to Chicago in their next game. Teams are 14-47 ATS in this spot since 2002.

Two, the Vikings would have been favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. This is the classic sandwich game situation, coming off a loss to Seattle and going into Chicago in their next game. Teams are 57-82 ATS in this spot since 2002. Three, the Lions would have been road dogs trying to avenge a same season home upset loss. Teams are 50-25 ATS since 2002.

The Lions are still in a few good spots, this week, though not as good as if the Vikings would have been favored. Home dogs are 53-71 ATS before a bye since 2002, which is a situation the Vikings are in, including 10-19 ATS if they’re going to be touchdown dogs after the bye. Meanwhile, teams that have yet to have their bye are 4-13 ATS since 1989 as home dogs. That doesn’t happen often, but it makes sense. Teams are exhausted from playing 9 games in 9 weeks and teams that are home dogs tend to be inferior teams. Being exhausted and inferior is a bad combination. Finally, road favorites are 48-29 ATS off a win as road favorites. The Lions won in Jacksonville last week. It’s not as strong, but the trends are with Detroit.

Furthermore, unlike in the Jacksonville/Indianapolis game, this line movement is legitimate, or at least more legitimate, not one where I would be really scared to still take the Lions despite all the action being on them and despite the huge line movement and despite the odds makers getting slaughtered last week (2-12) and needing a bounce back week. That’s why I didn’t make a play on Indianapolis last night. I seemed like a set up.

The reason this line movement is more legitimate is that it’s injury related. Percy Harvin is out for the Vikings and, aside from Adrian Peterson, he’s their only offensive weapon. He’s also an asset on special teams and scored on a return against the Lions in the Vikings’ win over them early this year. Without Harvin, life just gets harder for Christian Ponder and it’s pretty hard for him to begin with.

In his last 4 games, Christian Ponder completed 73 of 126 (57.9%) for 724 yards (5.7 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all less than stellar team performances (0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 SU). Unsurprisingly, he had his worst game last week, going 11 of 22 for 63 yards and a pick, when Harvin didn’t play the whole game and was playing hurt. The only reason it was even close against Seattle was because Adrian Peterson went nuts, but as talented as he is, he can’t do it by himself.

That promising start 4-1 with wins over San Francisco and Detroit seems like a thing of the past. That’s another reason why this line movement is legitimate, that and the fact that Detroit is suddenly soaring. Ever since their bye,  they are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS and have been playing especially well since Nate Burleson got hurt, allowing young receivers Titus Young and Ryan Broyles to get more playing time.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings. The rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Minnesota -1, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Minnesota -2.5. However, that doesn’t take into account Ponder’s struggles, Harvin’s absence, and the Lions’ rejuvenance since the bye. I think this line of Detroit -2.5 is perfectly reasonable and the trends are with Detroit as well. Detroit +2.5 would have been a significant bet, so as long as this line is -3 or smaller, I’m taking the Lions. That’s being said, it’s a small play because this seems like a very bad week to bet on a huge public lean given that the odds makers got killed last week.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Minnesota covers)

Sharps lean: DET 22 MIN 3

Final update: Sharps love Detroit more than anyone this week. The Vikings are reeling ans losing Harvin is really like losing a quarterback to most teams. I’ll add a unit.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5 (-110) 2 units

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San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)

The Buccaneers are surging thanks to Doug Martin’s improved play and the improved chemistry between Josh Freeman and new free agent deep threat acquisition Vincent Jackson. Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 14.6% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 18 of 37 for 753 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

On the year, Freeman is completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He ranks 9th in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of established veteran quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo, as well as young hot shots like Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck, and he’s just 1 spot behind Drew Brees. Even better, he’s hot right now, completing 100 of 173 (57.8%) for 1556 yards (9.0 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 5 games, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 3. Jackson, meanwhile, is 7th in the league in receiving yards per game, leads the league in yards per catch, 2nd in yards per pass route run, 8th in quarterback rating when thrown to, 10th in drop rate, and 2nd in deep pass catch rate.

The Freeman to Jackson connection has opened up things underneath for Mike Williams, who is having a bounce back season, and of course for Doug “muscle hamster” Martin (worst nickname I’ve ever heard) who is having a breakout rookie year. They’ve won 3 of 4 since the bye and sit at 4-4 with a +41 points differential that ranks 6th in the loaded NFC (for reference, it’d be 4th in the AFC). They rank 12th in yards per play differential and 14th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

The Chargers, meanwhile, continue to fail to impress. They snapped a 3 game losing streak last week, but they did it against Kansas City in a game that would have been embarrassingly close if the Chargers didn’t get two defensive touchdowns in a few minutes of game time. They can’t count on that every week. Their last win against a team other than the Chiefs was week 2 when they beat the Titans, which isn’t much better. And their only other win was against Oakland in a game they could have lost if not for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper, which led to 2 botched snaps and a blocked punt in an 8 point game. Again, not much better.

Meanwhile, they rank 18th in yards per play differential and 11th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Using those statistics to compute real line, we get -4.5 for the yards per play method and -2.5 for the rate of sustaining drives method. And that doesn’t even take into account that the Buccaneers have the momentum and come from a stronger conference (and have played a tougher schedule). The NFC is 23-13 against the AFC this year. In actuality, the line is at -2.5, so we’re getting better value with the Buccaneers.

In addition to being the better value, the Buccaneers are in the better spot. Technically, neither of these teams is in a good spot. Both are playing non-conference games before being divisional dogs. Teams are 43-68 ATS as non-divisional dogs before being divisional dogs, 11-29 ATS as non-conference dogs before being divisional dogs since 2002. That applies to San Diego, who goes to Denver next week. Meanwhile, teams are 32-60 ATS as non-conference favorite before being divisional dogs since 2002. That applies to Tampa Bay, who goes to Carolina next week.

That being said, using common sense, San Diego is clearly in the worse spot for three reasons. One, a game against Denver, who leads the division and who beat them in embarrassing comeback fashion earlier this year, is more likely to distract the Chargers than a game against Carolina, who is 2-6 and who the Buccaneers already beat this year, for the Buccaneers. Two, the Chargers will definitely be dogs in Denver next week, but you can’t say the same about Tampa Bay. The early line has them at just +1 in Carolina right now and that could easily flip to -1 or higher this week.

Three, the Chargers have to travel to Tampa Bay to play this game on the East Coast at 1 PM ET as a West Coast team, a situation teams generally struggle in. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers especially struggle, going 1-5 ATS in this spot. They’re also just 8-18 ATS on the road under Norv Turner before week 11, including 2-13 ATS outside of the division. The Buccaneers are the better team in the better spot and they’re laying less than a field goal at home. We also don’t have to worry about heavy public leans here because the action is pretty split. I really like the Buccaneers this week.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: TB 13 SD 7

Final update: No change. Still one of my two favorite picks this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bengals, Giants

New York Giants (6-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)

If it wasn’t for Hurricane Sandy, I would have picked against the Giants last week. I thought they were in a really bad spot at home for the Steelers, but because the Steelers had to travel on the day of the game because of the Hurricane, I couldn’t pick them. It was one of the few games I picked incorrectly last week and fortunately it was a really low confidence pick. I just didn’t know how the storm, which had different effects on each of the two teams, would affect the outcome of the football game.

The reason I thought the Giants were in a bad spot is because they struggle at home, especially as favorites of 3 or more and because they really struggle in the 2nd half of the season, going 53-19 in their first 8 games and 27-38 in their second 8 games under Tom Coughlin since he took over in 2004. Eli Manning is struggling of late, by his standards.

He’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his last 2 games and his completion percentage in his last 2 games is under 50%. Dating back to week 7 against Washington, he’s thrown just 1 touchdown in his last 3 games (that memorable game winner against Washington), and 4 interceptions. Over in those 3 games, he’s 51 of 93 (54.8%) for 654 yards (7.0 YPA), 1 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Meanwhile, his extrapolated season numbers, 61.0% completion, 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, resemble 2005-2010 Eli much more than they do 2011 ELIte. He’s such a big part of this team’s success so it’s no surprise that they’ve struggled of late, barely putting away two inferior opponents as losing at home to the Steelers.

The Giants schedule is such that they could have yet another late season struggle this year with games against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore, and Green Bay outside of the division, along with 3 divisional rivals, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Washington, that always play them tough. Fortunately for them, they have a pretty commanding divisional lead right now, so they’re not really in danger of missing the playoffs unless something goes horribly wrong.

Also fortunately for them, that won’t really matter this week as this is probably their easiest remaining game on their schedule, especially since they’re going into a bye. Much like home favorites of 6+, road favorites do well going into a bye as well. Not as well, but if you exclude road favorites of 7+ (a situation teams generally struggle to cover in), road favorites heading into a bye are 28-15 ATS since 2002.

Cincinnati started 3-1, but now stands at 3-5 4 games later. Andy Dalton has still yet to beat a playoff team. He went 0-8 against such teams last year and is either 0-3 or 0-4 against those such teams this year (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami, Denver). In those 12 games, he is a combined 257 of 451 (57.0%) for 2718 yards (6.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.

This year, his 3 wins have come against opponents who are a combined 6-20 and he’s actually lost at least once against non-playoff teams, something he didn’t do last year, so you could argue he’s regressed. Some of that can be blamed on an inferior defense however. They’re allowing 27.3 points per game, 25th in the league, after allowing 20.2 points per game, 9th in the league, last year. They’ve been especially poor against the pass, 25th in the league, so Eli Manning should be able to have a bounce back game this week, as he usually does when people are doubting him.

If Eli can make this a shoot out, Dalton doesn’t stand much of a chance. Jay Gruden is an excellent offensive coordinator who can mask Dalton’s flaws against average or bad opponents, but he’s really, really struggled against playoff caliber opponents. I don’t expect him to break through this week. As much as the Giants tend to disappoint at home, they’re great on the road, going 50-25 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era, easily the best in the league over the 8 and a half seasons he’s been their Head Coach. That includes 18-7 ATS as road favorites.

The Bengals are in a good spot here as well, as home dogs are 56-38 ATS off a loss as home dogs, and we’re also getting line value with them. The yards per play method of computing line value says this line should be Cincinnati -3.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method says this line should be NY Giants -3.5, both of which are below the actual line of -4.

The Giants are also heavily publicly backed. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

However, at the end of the day, the Giants should still be the right side. They’re great as on the road, and as road favorites specifically, and road favorites of less than 7 are great going into a bye. I don’t think this is the week Dalton breaks through and beats a playoff caliber team and the spread is small enough for that to be a reason to take the Giants. It’s not a big play though.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Sharps lean: NYG 12 CIN 7

Final update: No change.

New York Giants 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -4 (-110) 2 units

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints

Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. Their +77 points differential is just 6th in the NFL. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less.

They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

When are we ever going to see Drew Brees as a home dog again? Well, it’s actually happened 5 times before this week since he joined the Saints in 2006. The Saints covered 4 of those 5 instances. Meanwhile, dogs before being favorites are 89-50 ATS since 2011. The Saints go to Oakland next weekend. Home dogs before being road favorites, like the Saints will be next week, are 52-31 ATS since 2002.

That makes sense. If you’re good enough to be road favorites in the following week, why are you home dogs? Those teams are extra focused too with an easy game next on their schedule. That trend becomes stronger when the team is divisional home dogs before being non-divisional road favorites. Going back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 29-14 ATS in that spot. They’ll be extra focused this week. This will be their Super Bowl, not just because it’s Atlanta, but because their season is over with a loss, while they don’t care about non-conference Oakland next week.

This game will mean a lot for the Falcons too. However, small road favorites (less than 3) are 3-11 ATS after 5 or more straight wins. Typically if a team has been playing this well lately and they’re still not big road favorites, there’s a good reason for that. If we look at the metrics for calculating real line, we see that the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -1 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of -6.

Average those two out and you get -3.5 and, all of a sudden, this small line makes more sense, especially since you consider the Falcons will once again be without top linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Without him last week, they allowed 377 yards to the Cowboys 24 yards over their season average going into last week and their 4th worst total allowed of the season. The Cowboys imploded in the red zone, which is why they got just 13 points, but the Saints are much better in the red zone. They score on 72% of their red zone trips, best in the NFL.

The Falcons have also been had a bunch of “too good to be true” lines in their games this year that actually made sense when you looked at the metrics, -7.5 for Carolina, -9 for Oakland, +2.5 in Philadelphia, -3 in Washington, -4 for Dallas, etc. That’s not done on purpose. The odds makers know they’re overrated. The public seems to be falling for the trap as most of the action is on the Saints. This week especially, that’s a bad thing.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I’ve bet against the Falcons in the last 2 weeks and lost, but I’m doing it again this week. They can’t keep this up every week. One of these inferior teams will knock them off and there’s a lot of stuff going against them this week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New Orleans covers)

Sharps lean: NO 12 ATL 9

Final update: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Atlanta Falcons 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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