2012 Week 11 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, 49ers, Bears

Chicago Bears (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (6-2)

I can’t make a final pick on this one because there are too many unknowns with injuries and with the line in general (it’s not yet posted). However, I can do a reasonable preview based on what we do know. Here’s what we know. We know Jay Cutler has been ruled out and will not play for the Bears. Instead, Jason Campbell will start in his absence. We know Alex Smith has been cleared to practice and is expected to be cleared to play before Monday Night so he’s expected to start for the 49ers.

We know if all things were normal, this line would be around San Francisco -5 because that’s what it was at last week and both teams have had disappointing games since. Given all that, assuming Cutler doesn’t play, Smith plays, and the line moves the appropriate amount to compensate, I like the Bears. I would have taken them in normal circumstances at -5. I can’t understand Chicago, who leads the league in points differential, being more than 3 point road dogs against anyone while fully healthy. Even with Cutler out, this should be a close game and we can expect the line to be somewhere around -7 at least, so the points are very tempting.

Campbell is a decent quarterback and one of the better backups in the league. He led the Raiders to an 11-7 record in games he played over a 2 year stretch. In the games he missed, the Raiders went 5-9, even though Carson Palmer made 9 of those starts. This year, they are 3-6 without him and with Palmer. He didn’t look great against Houston, but then again neither did Cutler. Houston has an incredible defense. San Francisco does too, so he’s hardly going to put up big points, but he will at least have a week of starters reps under his belt and he won’t need to put up big points to cover.

The Bears run the ball, play great defense, and have great special teams and even with Alex Smith healthy, the 49ers won’t be doing a whole lot of scoring either. Smith is obviously a better quarterback than Campbell, but it’s not such a lopsided comparison that the 49ers warrant being possibly touchdown favorites or more in a game where everything else seems really even. Good teams tend to cover without their starting quarterback, especially in their first game without him because they’re overlooked, undervalued, and angry. The Bears were unable to do that last year, going 1-5 without Cutler, but this year will be different for several reasons.

One, when Cutler went down last year, it was known almost immediately to be season ending. The Bears pretty much quit after he went down. This time, he’ll probably only miss this game, so they will have more of a “holding down the fort for Cutler” mentality rather than “Cutler’s out, we’re fucked” mentality. Two, Jason Campbell is so much more competent than Caleb Hanie and eventually Josh McCown, the two starting quarterbacks who combined to make those 6 starts last year. Three, their supporting cast is better. They’ve added Brandon Marshall. They have returned Matt Forte (remember, he got hurt at the same time Cutler did last year). They’re also allowing about a touchdown less per game defensively than last year.

Both teams are in good spots this week after disappointing performances last week. Lovie Smith, since taking over as Bears’ Head Coach, is 6-3 ATS as dogs before being favorites. Dogs before being favorites are 95-50 ATS since 2011 and Chicago hosts Minnesota next week, a game they’ll be favored in even if Cutler can’t return for that one.

The 49ers, meanwhile, had a tie game last week, which makes things a little tougher. However, teams are 13-6 ATS off of overtime as double digit favorites, regardless of the outcome. Almost losing, or in the 49ers’ case, not winning, seems to send the same sort of wake up call to a team as actually losing. Further illustrating that, teams are 32-24 ATS off a win of 3 or fewer as double digit favorites and 27-18 ATS off a loss as double digit favorites.

Lose or barely win, it’s a wakeup call. Jim Harbaugh, like all great coaches, is excellent off a loss, going 5-1 ATS. In fact, off a mere ATS loss, he’s 6-1 ATS. It is worth noting that teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie, though it is a small sample size. The 49ers may be tired after playing 75 minutes last week, but this one is on Monday Night, so maybe not.

At the end of the day though, I like the Bears for a significant play as long as Cutler doesn’t play and this line is 6 or higher (6 is a key number). Even without Cutler, the Bears should be able to keep this close. They have a great supporting cast and will give 110% to hold down the fort in Cutler’s absence. I also think they have a good chance to win if history is any indication.

Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Chicago is the only one who is even close right now and they pretty much need this win to do so given that Atlanta is 8-1 and has a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. In a game that could decide the #2 seed in the NFC, I like the Bears to win, but I’m more confident they’ll cover, as long as the spread is where I think it will be. Minus 6-7 will be 3 units and anything above 7 will be 4 or 5 units. I’ll post a final pick once the line is posted.

Public lean: Chicago (50% range)

Sharps lean: SF 15 CHI 4

Final update: The sharps like San Francisco, but keep in mind, the LV Hilton line is -4. It’s at -7 in the few online sportsbooks its up at. I’ll make this pick assuming -7 just to get it out of the way and make any changes tonight if I need to. It’s going to be 3 units on the Bears. 7 is way too many points. The Bears will play 110% to compensate for Cutler and make this a grind it out game. I have a tough time seeing either team win by more than 7 barring several defensive/special teams touchdowns.

Final update Part 2: Alex Smith was surprising ruled out Monday Morning and even though this line opened on Sunday at -7 expecting Smith to play, it plummeted down to -3.5 today. I’m very glad I was able to get Chicago +7 now, but if you couldn’t, I still like Chicago +3.5, but only for 2 units. There’s no way Smith is worth 3.5 points. I obviously still like the money line, even though it’s smaller now.

Chicago Bears 16 San Francisco 49ers 13 Upset Pick +240

Pick against spread: Chicago +7 (-110) 3 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Houston Texans (8-1)

This week, when the Jacksonville Jaguars go to Houston to play the Texans it will be the latest a 1-win team has played a 1-loss team since 1990, when the Patriots played the Bills, also during week 11, How long ago was that? Well, here’s a clue. The Patriots were the 1-win team and the Bills were the 1-loss team. The Bills won 14-0, finished the season 13-3 and went on to lose their 1st of 4 straight Super Bowls. The Patriots did not win another game, finishing 1-15.

The Texans are 15.5 point favorites here at home. I hate laying this many points in general and it seems that the public agrees with me because, even as miserable as Jacksonville is, there is pretty even action on this one. However, the Jaguars deserve to be dogs of this many. In fact, this line might not even be high enough. The Jaguars are absolutely horrible, especially without Maurice Jones-Drew, who was a massive part of their offense, and with Rashad Jennings averages less than 3 YPC in his absence.

They rank dead last in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. In yards per play differential, they are at -1.1. No one else is worse than -0.9. In rate of sustaining drives they are -14.8%, no one else is worse than -9.5%. They’re worse than even the Chiefs.  I’ve always said, if the Chiefs can avoid losing the turnover battle, they can be competitive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have avoided losing the turnover battle. They are just -3 on the season, as Blaine Gabbert’s overly conservative style of play is not one that causes him to turn the ball over a ton. They still have not been close to being competitive, as they have a league worst -119 points differential.

Using those two aforementioned statistics, yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, we can compute real line. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Houston -13.5, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method (which Houston leads the league in) gives us a real line of Houston -20.5. If you average them out you get a real line of Houston -17, 1.5 points higher than this line should be.

Besides, this big line seems to have scared people off of taking the favorite. I’ve picked a lot of dogs this week because most of the favorites have heavy public leans and the odds makers still need to make back their money from 2 weeks ago, but some favorites need to cover so I like being able to take a non-heavy publicly backed favorite like Houston, a real rarity this week. There’s still a slight lean on Houston, but the odds makers still win either way because of the juice. I like Houston to get their 5th win of the season by 20 or more and Jacksonville to lose their 6th game of the season by 17 or more, for a small play. Houston is 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites this season, while the rest of the league is 3-7 ATS.

Public lean: Houston (50% range)

Sharps lean: JAX 6 HOU 1

Final update: No change.

Houston Texans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Houston -15.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4) at Carolina Panthers (2-7)

The Buccaneers have really turned it around lately and are now road favorites in Carolina, pretty crazy considering they were road dogs in Oakland a couple weeks ago, 6 point dogs in Minnesota the week before that, home dogs for the Saints the week before that, and then just 4 point home favorites against the Chiefs the week before that.

You could argue that they don’t deserve to be road favorites, at least not in Carolina, against an underrated Panthers team that is playing much better defense since their bye and who has only lost 2 games by more than a touchdown all year. The yards per play differential method says Carolina should be 5 point favorites, though the rate of sustaining drives differential method says Tampa Bay should be 2.5 point favorites (Carolina is one of the reasons I created the new stat). Still, if you average those out, you don’t get that Tampa Bay should be road favorites here. The Panthers are also home dogs after a loss as home dogs, a situation teams are 57-39 ATS in since 2002.

That being said, I don’t want to get in the way of Tampa Bay right now. If you showed me tape of this team before the bye, I wouldn’t recognize them. Josh Freeman is 90 of 154 for 1467 yards, 13 touchdowns, and an interception in his last 5 games, going 4-1, with the only loss being a winnable one that went down to the last play.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly and opening thinks up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL.

This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.4% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 20 of 42 for 838 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions. On the year, Freeman is completing 56.8% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He ranks 7th in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of established veteran quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Tony Romo, as well as young hot shots like Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck.

Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David. Even before the bye, they did not lose a single game by more than a touchdown. Their +51 points differential is tied for 5th in the loaded NFC with the Giants, one point behind the Packers, and tied for 9th in the NFL, with Green Bay and Baltimore in striking distance. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, who are a league leading 7-2 ATS on the season.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (80%)

Sharps lean: CAR 14 TB 11

Final update: No change.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2 (-110) 1 unit

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Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Browns, Cowboys

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or defensive) and overrates teams that get a lot of big plays, but frequently have drives stall.

Rate of sustaining drives differential is a stat I created myself to fix that aforementioned problem that measures team’s offensive and defensive efficiency on a per set of downs basis, meaning how often can you convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs or a score and how often can you prevent your opponent from doing so. It underrates teams that get a lot of big plays, so those two work together perfectly. I do this in order to find line value and overrated and underrated teams.

Well, when doing this on this game, I found out that this line is exactly where it should be. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Dallas -7, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Dallas -9. Average those two out and you get Dallas -8, which is exactly where this line is. Furthermore, the other way I like to handicap games is by using situational trends. However, the only two I could find for this game cancel each other out.

First, non-divisional home favorites are 54-37 ATS since 2002 after winning as divisional road favorites. The Cowboys won in Philadelphia as road favorites last week and now are favored at home for Cleveland. However, favorites just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, including 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites. The Cowboys host the Redskins next week on Thursday Night in their annual Thanksgiving game.

That being said, I do like the Browns for 3 reasons. The first is that I love to bet against the public. The public always loses in the long run and if you were to bet the opposite of them for a full season, you’d most likely always make money (you definitely would if not for the juice). I don’t follow it that strictly, but it’s something I use in handicapping. Two, the Cowboys struggle as home favorites, excluding Thanksgiving games, going 7-14 ATS at home as favorites since the start of the 2009 season, again with the exclusion of Thanksgiving games, when they normally fare well.

Finally, the Browns are better than their record. They have 7 losses, but none of them have been by more than 14 points, including just 1 by more than 10. As dogs of more than 4, they are 2-1-1 ATS, only failing to cover in a 14 point loss to the Giants as 8.5 point dogs. They actually held a 14-0 lead early in that one and lead up until right before halftime in a game that was closer than the final score.

Meanwhile, against Baltimore a few weeks ago, they lost by 10, but actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but their 5 scores were all field goals, thanks to terrible play calling, while the Ravens got 3 touchdowns and a field goal. The only game they lost by more than 7 that wasn’t closer than the final score was week 3, a 24-14 loss to the Bills. They should be able to hang within 8 of the Cowboys in this one, but the key word is should.

I’d make this a bigger play if I was confident they wouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot, blow an early lead, implode in field goal range and lose this game by 10-14 when really they deserved to lose by 3-7. Dallas is also my survivor pick of the week as I can’t really see them losing to the Browns here in Dallas. Tony Romo is 20-3 in November and the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. It was close between them and Denver this week, but I gave the tiebreaker to Dallas because Denver is a better team and will be more valuable in the future (4 games against Kansas City, Oakland, and these Browns).

Sharps lean: CLE 18 DAL 4

Final update: Sharps love Cleveland. I get it, but I don’t trust Pat Shurmur enough to make this a significant play. Besides, Joe Haden, the Browns’ top defensive player, is expected to be a game time decision.

Dallas Cowboys 21 Cleveland Browns 16 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cleveland +8 (-110) 2 units

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3)

In my Power Rankings this week I joked, “Why does it feel like the Chargers are going to lose to Denver, fall to 4-6, and then go on their annual late season run, finish 8-8 or 9-7, miss the playoffs barely, and save Norv Turner’s and AJ Smith’s jobs? Oh, that’s right, that happens every year.” Well, I’m not so sure that their annual late season run can’t start this week.

It’s more likely that they drop this one and then go on their run, just because Denver is on a roll right now and their schedule gets easy after this one (home for Baltimore, and Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, home for Carolina, at the Jets, home for Oakland), but you can rule out them winning this one or at least being competitive.

The Chargers are road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 80-47 ATS in since 2008. Norv Turner is also 5-1 ATS in same season divisional revenge games, though it’s worth noting that teams are just 9-16 ATS trying to avenge a same season loss in which they blew a 14 point or larger halftime lead. Philip Rivers, meanwhile, is 30-19 ATS in week 11 or later, including 11-4 ATS as dogs.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are home favorites after back-to-back wins as road favorites, a situation teams are 54-37 ATS in since 1989. We’re also getting some line value with them as the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Denver -13 (they rank #1 in yards per play differential) and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Denver -4.

If we average those out, we were getting a little bit of little value with Denver (Denver -8.5), who is absolutely rolling right now. It’s weird to say, but Tracy Porter getting sick was the turning point for their season. Obviously, I wish the best for Porter in his recovery from him mysterious illness, but as well as Peyton Manning is playing, they wouldn’t be a complete team if it weren’t for Chris Harris and Tony Carter stepping up and playing phenomenal in their secondary and that wouldn’t have happened if Porter were playing.

They haven’t lost since Porter went out. Harris and Porter are both former undrafted cornerbacks who were afterthoughts on the depth chart that Jack Del Rio has playing out of their minds. Carter is allowing 11 of 32 for 115 yards, 2 interceptions, 4 deflections, and 1 penalty and is unfortunately not even on the Pro-Bowl ballot. He’s also scored twice defensively. Chris Harris, meanwhile, is allowing 23 of 40 for 255 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing just 1 penalty. He also has 3 sacks and is playing the run very well.

They rank 6th in pass defense, 2nd in run defense and lead the league in yards per play differential. In rate of sustaining drives, they’re 9th. Peyton Manning is completing 69.7% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all above his career averages. Their only issue is that they’re -4 in turnovers, but they’re improving in that area, though Willis McGahee’s fumbling problem is an issue.

I’m scared to bet against Manning, but I’m also worried this could be the week that San Diego turns it on. I’m taking the Chargers just to fade the public and because if the Chargers are down 10-14 late driving for the backdoor cover, I’d rather have them than Denver, though it’s close because I really like Denver’s defense, especially since they started giving Tony Carter more playing time.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Sharps lean: SD 11 DEN 5

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: San Diego +8 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (8-1)

The Falcons are 9.5 point favorites here at home, but they’ve struggled to blow teams out this year, winning 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 against teams who, like the Cardinals, currently have a sub .500 record. 4 of those 5 close games were at home and they represent all 4 of the Falcons’ home games this season.

Arizona is in a couple of good spots. They’re dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 95-50 ATS in since 2011. They are double digit dogs (I know they’re technically not, but close enough, it’s -10 in some places) before being favorites, a situation teams are 46-27 ATS in since 2002, including 16-4 ATS as non-divisional double digit dogs before being divisional favorites (they host St. Louis next week). They’re also coming off a bye having lost 5 or more in a row, a situation teams are 20-8 ATS in since 1989.

We’re also getting line value with the Cardinals. Using the yards per play differential method, we get a real line of Atlanta -5.5 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential metric, we get a real line of -10, which averages out to be a significantly smaller line than this is (2 points is pretty significant). All this being said, I like the Falcons this week for two reasons.

The first is that I really don’t like the way the Cardinals are going right now. They’ve lost 5 in a row and John Skelton, who will start once again this week, is, believe it or not, actually a downgrade over Kevin Kolb. Both of their top-2 backs are hurt and their offensive line is a complete joke and on pace to break Houston’s record of 78 sacks allowed set in 2002, their first season in existence.

Second, since Mike Smith took over in 2008, this team has been excellent at rebounding off a loss. Good teams with good coaches tend to do this and Mike Smith might do it better than anyone (I guarantee you if his name were anything other than Mike Smith, he’d be known as one of the top Head Coaches in the NFL). He is 17-3 ATS off a loss, including 6-0 ATS off an upset loss.

The Falcons haven’t blown a bunch of teams out this year, but they certainly have the personnel and capability to do so. I think they get that blowout win this week in a statement game for a team that always bounces back well off a loss and that needs to shut a few people up by blowing out a team that should blow out. They’re also great outside of the division at home as Matt Ryan is 16-6 ATS as non-divisional home favorites, though just 5-3 ATS as touchdown favorites and 1-1 ATS as double digit favorites. I like the Falcons for a small play. I hate laying this many points in general, and there is a lot of conflicting stuff in this one, but the Falcons seem due for a statement home win against a crappy opponent.

Public lean: Atlanta (70% range)

Sharps lean: ARZ 8 ATL 2

Final update: One of the toughest games this week as there’s stuff going on for both sides. Injuries will play a key role as well as Julio Jones is a game time decision and both Sean Weatherspoon and Calais Campbell, arguably each team’s best defensive player, are not expected to play. I’m sticking with my original pick, but it would be very low in any confidence pool and a zero unit pick if I did them.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Arizona Cardinals 12

Pick against spread: Atlanta -9.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: Week 11 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5)

I don’t think it’s possible to talk about the Packers without first talking about how bad their injury situation has gotten. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting rush linebacker Nick Perry on injured reserve. Jordy Nelson returns for this one, but Greg Jennings remains out. Defensively, key players Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews have already been ruled out for this one.

In a way, this injury situation is worse than it was in 2010. In 2010, the sheer volume of injuries they had was ridiculous, but they were able to keep key players like Jennings, Matthews, and Woodson healthy all year. They never lost a player as talented and important as anyone in that trio. Matthews’ injury will be the key one since that’s the most recent one. Without him and Perry, they don’t have much chance of getting any pressure on Matt Stafford this week. Those are their starting rush linebackers and their defensive line is once again getting minimal pressure on the quarterback. They already ranked 31st in the league in pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(hurries)/pass rush snaps), only ahead of the Saints, so losing Matthews, who is 4th at his position in pass rush efficiency, they’re in real trouble.

They were able to rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring in 2010 despite injuries because Matthews, Woodson, and Bishop stayed healthy and because BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Nick Collins, and Tramon Williams all played at a Pro-Bowl level. Jenkins left as a free agent and wasn’t really replaced. Collins had to retire because of injuries. Raji is having a 2nd straight down year. Only Williams is playing close to the level he was playing at in 2010. They’ve added a couple nice young players to the mix like Casey Hayward, but this is nowhere near the defense it was in 2010 so the situations aren’t comparable. They’re not as good as they were in 2010 and they’re certainly not as good as they were last year in the regular season.

Last year, they didn’t exactly play great defense either, but they were able to make up for it with a combination of an incredible turnover differential and one of the best offensive outputs of all time. After going +24 in turnovers last year and forcing 38 takeaways, this year they are just +4 with 12 takeaways through 9 games. After scoring 35.0 points per game last year, they are at just 26.6 per game this year, thanks to injuries to receivers, most notably Jennings, as well as struggles on the ground and on the offensive line, which will only get worse with Bulaga out. That might still seem like a lot of points, and it is, but compared to last year and with the team still having issues defensively, it’s enough to knock them out of the ranks as an elite team. They’re not bad at all. I just think they’re overrated.

For instance, they are 3.5 point favorites here in Detroit. Normally teams dominate as road favorites out of a bye, going 43-15 ATS in this situation since 2002, including 21-3 ATS in the division. However, the Packers don’t deserve to be road favorites against a good Detroit team this week and as we saw with the Chargers in Cleveland a few weeks ago, if you don’t deserve to be road favorites, that trend doesn’t do you a ton of good.

The yards per play differential method of computing the real line gives us a real line of Detroit -4.5, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing real line says this should be a pick em. Neither of them say that Green Bay deserves to be road favorites. In fact, if you average them out, they say that Detroit should at least be favored by a couple of points here at home.

Detroit is also in a nice spot. Divisional home dogs are 11-5 ATS off a loss as divisional road favorites since 2002, 49-35 ATS since 1989. Given how much the public is pounding Green Bay (the public always loses in the long run), I like Detroit for a couple of units. I am a little scared to go against Rodgers, who can always go into eff you mode like he did against Houston.

Public lean: Green Bay (90% range)

Sharps lean: GB 15 DET 11

Final update: No change.

Detroit Lions 31 Green Bay Packers 30 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Detroit +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

Almost every year, we have one team go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Right now, every playoff team from last year has at least 4 wins. That means one of two things. We’re not going to have a team like that this year (only happened 1 other time in the last decade) or either Detroit, New Orleans, or Cincinnati is about to go 1-6 in their next 7 games.

I’m sticking with the latter for now and I think the Bengals are going to be that team. The Bengals still do not impress me, ranking just 20th in rate of sustaining drives differential, with an even yards per play differential. They’ll probably only be favored in 2 of their remaining 7 games, so it’s possible. That would mean that the Bengals will have to get upset by either the Chiefs or the Raiders in the next 2 weeks.

Can they lose here to the Chiefs? As weird as it may sound, they can. Neither of these teams is really in a good spot. The Bengals beat the Giants as home dogs last week, which opens up 3 trends. One, road teams are 7-15 ATS off a win over the defending champs since 2002. Two, away favorites are 74-97 ATS after being home dogs since 1989. Three, teams are 55-71 ATS off of a win as home dogs since 2008. Meanwhile, road favorites off of 3+ straight home games are 23-41 ATS since 1989.

For the Chiefs, home dogs before being home dogs are 29-42 ATS since 2008. They host the Broncos next week. Home dogs are 6-16 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points) as double digit road dogs. Meanwhile, excluding road dogs, teams are 18-45 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-13 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. However, teams are just 5-5 ATS off a Monday Night game in this spot since 1989. That trend is much more relevant with a team coming off a Sunday game.

Neither team is in a good spot, but we are getting line value with the Chiefs. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Kansas City -2.5 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Cincinnati -3, both of which are less than this line of Cincinnati -3.5. The Chiefs, as bad as they’ve been this year, can be competitive if they can avoid losing the turnover battle like they did last week. If they can do that again this week, they can definitely win and turnovers are inconsistent enough for that to happen. On top of all that, the public is pounding Cincinnati and the public always loses in the long run.

The Bengals aren’t good enough to be road dogs really anywhere as the calculations of real line show. Besides, since 2007, the Bengals are just 10-22 ATS as favorites. Since Marvin Lewis took over in 2003, the Bengals are just 11-24 ATS as favorites of more than 3. The Chiefs are in one good spot as a 1-win team off a loss as dogs by a touchdown or less. Teams are 65-43 ATS in that spot since 2002. I think the Chiefs have a chance to win here (and keep open the possibility that the Bengals go 5-11) and I like the money line of +165. I also don’t trust the Bengals in this spot and as favorites, especially as road favorites, so it’s a small play on the spread.

Public lean: Cincinnati (80% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 12 KC 3

Final update: No change.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Raiders, Saints

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last in both of those metrics. The Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t much better, but they rank 24th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They rank better in both of those statistics than the Saints and somehow they’re still home dogs.

Using those statistics to compute real line, we get that Oakland should be 3.5 point favorites using the yards per play differential method and 4.5 points favorites using the rate of sustaining drives differential method. Instead, Oakland is +5.5. That’s 9 or 10 points of line value, which is an absolutely ridiculous amount to get at this point in the season.

Besides, New Orleans has never been good on the road as favorites outside of their division, even when they were good. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 3-7 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. In his last 13 games as road favorites of 4 or more, Brees is just 4-9 ATS. Their struggles outside of their dome are well documented. Since the start of the 2008 season, Brees completes 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA and 119 touchdowns to 43 interceptions indoors, as opposed to 66.5% completion, 7.5 YPA, and 53 touchdowns to 30 interceptions outside.

Speaking of New Orleans being road favorites, teams are 75-97 ATS as road favorites after being home dogs since 1989. The Saints were home dogs against the Falcons last week. Meanwhile, teams are 68-104 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs since 1989. The Saints go home and will be dogs against San Francisco next week. Furthermore, teams are 12-28 ATS as non-conference favorites off a divisional upset win before being dogs. Teams are 16-5 ATS after ending a perfect season during week 9 or later, but I still think overall the Saints are in a bad spot this week, in addition to being overrated and a poor team on the road, outside of the division, and outside of their dome.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a great spot. It may not seem like it after their 35 point loss in Baltimore last week, but that’s exactly why they’re in a good spot. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams coming off a blowout like that tend to be overlooked, undervalued, embarrassed and playing for respect.

I think they’ll definitely be the latter of those 2 things. That speaks for itself. I think the Saints will also overlook this lowly non-conference opponent sandwiched in between games against Atlanta and San Francisco, two of the premier teams in their conference (after that they go to Atlanta and the Giants and then host Tampa Bay). Road favorites are 20-39 ATS before being dogs in 3 straight. I also think the Raiders are undervalued as this line has moved from -3 to -5.5 in the last week, giving us even more line value.

The only thing I’m worried about other than that 16-5 trend that I mentioned earlier is that the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year, but the Raiders don’t have to win to cover here. Plus, on top of all the things I’ve already mentioned, the public is pounding the Saints. The public always loses money in the long run. I like them to cover the 5.5 for a big play.

Public lean: New Orleans (90% range)

Sharps lean: NO 14 OAK 10

Final update: No change.

Oakland Raiders 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Oakland Raiders +5.5 (-110) 4 units

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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)

The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against the Titans in Tennessee to being -3 in Jacksonville and +7 at home for Green Bay. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, including 5-1 since Chuck Pagano left the team for treatment. They’ve won 4 straight and their only loss since Pagano’s announcement was in New York against the Jets, when they were understandably flat right after their first emotional ChuckStrong victory.

They are once again underrated this week as 9 point dogs in New England. For reference, the Bills were -12 in New England last week and covered. That says Colts are just 3 points better than the Bills at most because the Patriots didn’t even cover last week. Huh? Using the yards per play differential method, the Patriots should just be 3 point favorites and even using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, the Patriots should just be 8 point favorites, even though the Patriots rank 2nd in that statistic.

The Colts shouldn’t be getting this many points against anyone, even though the Patriots do have Aqib Talib making his debut this week. The Colts also return Robert Mathis from injury this week. Mathis, their top pass rusher, has been pretty much out since week 4 (he played very sparingly week 9). They’ve been playing really well ever since they returned several starters defensively (Cory Redding, Dwight Freeney, Pat Angerer). Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers are out, but their defense is still healthier than it’s been in recent weeks and Darius Butler’s strong performance at cornerback is helping cancel out the loss of Davis and Powers.

Besides, the Patriots tend to struggle when laying this many points at home. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is pretty incredible considering they’ve been a covering machine in general in the past 2 ½ years. In all other situations, they are a whopping 21-8 ATS. They’ve already failed to cover in all 3 of these instances this season, barely beating the Jets and Bills and losing to the Cardinals, 3 teams that are all significantly worse than the Colts. This game reminds me a lot of when the Giants came to New England as 9 point dogs week 9 last year and won.

The Colts are also in a trio of good spots. First, they’re well rested coming off a Thursday Night Game. On Sunday, teams are 115-95 ATS off a Thursday Night game. Second, they’re dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-11 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. Next week, they host the lowly Bills. Third, the Patriots play the Jets on Thanksgiving next Thursday. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites (which the Patriots will be).

The Colts should be able to keep this one close and even if they don’t, there’s some backdoor potential with the Colts because of how bad the Patriots’ pass defense is, even with Talib. If the Colts are down 10-14 driving for a backdoor cover late this week, I’d rather have them than the Patriots, especially as bad as the Patriots’ pass defense is in the 4th quarter. I also don’t want to bet against this ChuckStrong momentum.

Sharps lean: NE 9 IND 5

Final update: No change.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

New England Patriots 31 Indianapolis Colts 27

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +9 (-110) 4 units

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