2012 Week 11 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington (3-6)

This line has shifted 2 points since last week because of Michael Vick’s injury (-1.5 last week to -3.5 this week), which makes no sense because Michael Vick sucks. Nick Foles went 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in relief of Vick last week. He didn’t look as good as those numbers, but he was facing a solid defense and didn’t get any first team reps all season.

This week, he gets a full week of reps with the first team and to face the Redskins’ 27th ranked pass defense. He should be able to have a strong game against them, something I don’t know if Vick could have done. Vick only led the Eagles to 13 points against the Saints’ last ranked pass defense so I don’t understand this line shifting 2 points because of Vick getting hurt.

We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles now that the line has shifted. The Eagles rank 18th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Redskins rank 20th in yards per play differential and 15th in rate of sustaining drives differential. These two teams are about even. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says that Washington should be -2.5 at home (3 points for home field), while the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be -3.

This is also the exact type of game Andy Reid thrives in. He’s best when being doubted (the public is all over Washington), when he’s a road dog, when he’s coming off a losing streak, and in the latter part of the season. Since the Eagles hired him way back in 1999, he’s 8-5 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak and 4-1 ATS on a 4+ game losing streak (last week was the first time he failed to cover in this situation). I didn’t like them last week because of Vick, but now with Foles, they might actually be better off and they’re certainly going to be more undervalued and more likely to be overlooked.

Also last week, the Eagles were home dogs and Andy Reid is about .500 as home dogs in his career. However, as road dogs, he’s 37-20 ATS, including 16-8 ATS in the division. He’s also 65-42 ATS after week 10, including 22-10 ATS as road dogs after week 10. Another spot that the Eagles weren’t in last week, they’re now dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 23-11 ATS as divisional dogs before being non-divisional favorites (they host Carolina next week). Besides, Andy Reid needs this game to keep his job. If Foles impresses down the stretch, the Eagles will keep him around to develop the quarterback he drafted, his specialty.

Meanwhile, the Redskins are divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to Dallas next week. Teams are 14-47 ATS in this spot since 2002, an incredibly powerful trend. That game is also just 4 days after this one, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites. I also like that the Redskins are pretty heavily bet by the public. Not only does it mean no one believes in the Eagles (when they play best), the public always loses money in the long run. It’s a big play on Nick Foles and the Eagles.

Public lean: Washington (70% range)

Sharps lean: PHI 8 WAS 2

Final update: No change.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Jets at St. Louis Rams: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jets, Rams

New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I really like the Jets this week. The Jets are one of two teams I have not picked to cover once this year, along with the Bengals. Yes, their fans hate me. It may seem weird that this is the week I’m going with the Jets because they seem to be at their lowest point, given all that’s happened in the last week.

However, the Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? With the team now at 3-6, with all their locker room dirty laundry being aired to the media over the past week, coming off a two straight losses of 21 or more, the Jets are now at their lowest point.

Speaking off 2 straight losses of 21 or more, teams are 35-16 ATS since 2002 coming off back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, embarrassing, and playing for pride in that spot. The Jets are definitely embarrassed and playing for pride. They’re also undervalued and likely to be overlooked. This line has shifted from St. Louis -2 to -3.5 and the 3-5 Rams are now favorites of more than a field goal.

This is an unfamiliar situation for the Rams. How unfamiliar? Well, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. Teams are 46-67 ATS as favorites of more than 3 after being dogs in 4 straight. This is also just the 8th time they’ve been favored since the start of the 2009 season. Since 2002, they are just 24-38 ATS as favorites.

Meanwhile, since 1989, home favorites are 97-162 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight. The Rams probably won’t be in this unfamiliar situation again until at least 4 weeks from now when they host Minnesota, if at all the rest of the season. 2 of their next 3 are on the road and their only home game is against San Francisco, when they almost definitely won’t be favored. Meanwhile, they’re simply not good enough to be road favorites anywhere, even in Buffalo week 14.

All of these trends are basically saying that bad teams don’t do well as favorites. Well, this one also says that. Since 2008, teams are 57-81 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. For good teams, a game like this would represent a breather game, a chance to get an “easy” win after a loss to a tough opponent before facing another tough opponent. For bad teams, it represents a game they probably shouldn’t be favored in. Over that time period, when the game they’re favored in is non-divisional and the other two are divisional (@ San Francisco, vs. NY Jets, @ Arizona), teams are 6-11 ATS. If we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, that trend becomes 23-39 ATS.

I know the Rams didn’t actually lose in San Francisco last week, but it doesn’t seem to matter. Dogs before and after being favorites are 83-118 ATS regardless of the outcome of the first game (26-37 ATS off a win). That tie does make things a little tougher, but not that tough. Teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie and regardless of the outcome of last week’s game, the Rams would be in a bad spot this week.

I already mentioned the sandwich/breather game trend, but here are some more. Teams are 45-66 ATS off a win as double digit dogs, 23-36 ATS off a win as divisional double digit dogs. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-15 ATS since 1989. Home favorites are 10-24 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-17 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

If the Rams had won last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. If the Rams had lost last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. And having tied in overtime last week, well they’re still in a bad spot, albeit one with a really small sample size. After playing 75 minutes and taking the 49ers to the brink, the Rams are probably not going to focused for the lowly Jets this week, especially with another divisional road game next on the schedule.

The Jets are also in one more good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 80-47 ATS in this spot since 2008. Finally, the Rams are a pretty strong public lean and the public always loses in the long run. There are a few reasons why this isn’t a 5-unit co-pick of the week along with Pittsburgh. For one, the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. Two, we’re actually getting line value with the Rams as the yards per play differential method says they should be 6.5 point favorites and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says they should be 4 point favorites and that’s not taking into account that the Rams now have Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold healthy, two things that really helped against San Francisco. They’re now 5-1 ATS with Amendola this year and 0-3 ATS without him.

Three, there’s always a chance the Jets are looking forward to a Thanksgiving game with the Patriots immediately after this one, but they simply can’t afford to lose another game if they want to maintain any hope of making the playoffs and I can’t imagine them looking past the Rams having been embarrassed in their last 2 games. They’re playing for pride and always do well at their lowest point, while the Rams are in an unfamiliar spot as favorites could easily overlook this lowly non-conference opponent off a grueling game against San Francisco with another divisional matchup on schedule next. It’s a 4-unit pick.

Public lean: NY Jets (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 17 NYJ 3

Final update: Sharps do have this at -3, but that probably isn’t the reason why there’s a huge sharps lean on the Rams. I’m going to disagree with them though.

New York Jets 20 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, as is often the case with the public on heavy leans, I think they’re going to be wrong. There is a simple answer to that question: they’ll beat them the same way they normally beat teams without Ben Roethlisberger.

Since he took over as starter full time during week 3 of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger has missed 13 games. The Steelers are 8-5 in those 13 games, a winning percentage of 62%. When he does play, they have a winning percentage of 70%. It’s a difference, but not a huge difference and that’s just at first glance. If we exclude overtime losses, the Steelers are 8-2 in games without Ben Roethlisberger as they’ve lost 3 of those 5 games in overtime. Going off that, none of those 5 losses has come by more than 6 points, including 3 losses that would have still covered this 3.5 point spread.

It’s true that they have lost 4 times to the Ravens without Ben Roethlisberger (why does he always miss these games?!), but by a combined 15 points, including 3 games decided by just a field goal. In the Joe Flacco era, both of the Ravens’ games against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers have been decided by 3 points, two final scores that would equal a Pittsburgh cover if they were to happen this week and these aren’t the same Ravens as they have been in the past (more on that later).

Overall without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. This year’s defense might not be quite the same as their defenses have been in the past. After all, they’ve had a top-3 scoring defense in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They are missing Troy Polamalu. However, that being said, they rank 7th in opponent’s scoring and 1st in opponent’s yardage, so it’s not like their defense is playing badly. In fact, they’re playing very well. Besides, in the two seasons they did not have a top-3 defense, they still covered in both instances without Ben Roethlisberger.

It’s not just defense that’s winning them these games without Roethlisberger. The whole team seems to play better. They’re a prideful bunch and never roll over easy without Roethlisberger. Mike Tomlin (under whom they are 6-2 ATS without Roethlisberger) will have them playing for pride with everyone doubting them against a Ravens team that did beat them twice last year. They’ll definitely want revenge for those losses, in addition to wanting to shut up the critics.

Given all that, it’s ridiculous that the Steelers are +3.5 here at home. A week ago, this line was -5.5. Roethlisberger is good, but he’s certainly not worth 9 points. And even if Roethlisberger hadn’t gotten hurt and this line had stayed -5.5, I would have picked the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -7 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -4.5 and if you average those, you do get slightly higher than -5.5. Obviously, those two formulas don’t do a ton of good in a game where one team is missing a Pro-Bowl quarterback, but at the same time, this line should not have moved 9 full points.

The reason Pittsburgh deserved to be around -5.5 or -6 with Roethlisberger is that the Ravens are overrated. Before last week, this team had not won a single game by 10 or more since week 1 and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, 2 weeks ago at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. Before last week, this team hadn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 27th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 17th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows. Because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well.

Even in last week’s blowout win over the Ravens, they got outgained. They rank just 8th in yards per play differential and 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now and would have deserved to be dogs of 6 or so in Pittsburgh with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers’ side. They certainly don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in Pittsburgh with the Steelers missing Roethlisberger. For reference, they were -3.5 in Cleveland two weeks ago and had trouble covering the spread. You can’t tell me the Steelers are equal to the Browns now.

Aside from that, the Steelers are in a good spot, part of why I would have taken them even had Roethlisberger not gotten hurt and had the line stayed put. Teams are 10-3 ATS after a home overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 32-24 ATS off a home win of 3 or fewer as double digit dogs. Almost losing as big favorites tends to serve as just as good of a wakeup call as actually losing. Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss and 25-18 ATS off a game in which the Steelers failed to cover. He’s also 5-3 ATS in divisional revenge games and, as I mentioned, the Ravens beat the Steelers twice last year.

In addition to all of those trends, two kick in now that Pittsburgh is a dog. Dogs before being favorites are 92-52 ATS since 2011. The Steelers go to Cleveland next week. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin is 3-1 ATS as dogs against the Ravens.  I really like the Steelers this week. At the very worst, they should be able to keep this within a field goal again so getting the 3.5 is key. I have a feeling the Steelers pull out the straight up win, however. Everyone is doubting them and they’re traditionally good even without Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, the Ravens are overrated.

Public lean: Baltimore (90% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 17 BAL 6

Final update: Glad to see that the sharps agree with my pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) 5 units

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6)

Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but the public is pounding the home favorite. Buffalo is not only infrequently favored, but they’re also incredibly infrequently publicly backed as favorites.

So what went wrong for the Dolphins? Well, first they lost in Indianapolis to the Colts by 3. That’s not embarrassing at all. The Colts stand at 6-3 and even hanging within a field goal of them in Indianapolis is pretty impressive. However, last week, the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans in embarrassing fashion, 37-3. That’s shifted this line from Miami being road favorites to Buffalo being favored.

However, that loss wasn’t as embarrassing as it looked. They got killed in the turnover battle 4-0, setting up Tennessee in great field position, giving them the ability to score 37 points despite just 9 completions and fewer than 300 yards of offense. That being said, this line does hold up to the test of the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential metrics. The former says this line should be Buffalo -1.5 and the latter says this line should be Buffalo -1, which is right around where this line actually is.

What last week’s fluky loss does do is put Miami in a great spot to cover this week. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams tend to be embarrassed and undervalued in this spot and the Dolphins are at least one of those things. They may also be undervalued. Teams are 21-11 ATS since 1989 coming off a game in which they allowed 32 or more points and fewer than 10 completions. This makes sense as those tend to be fluky losses. They may also be dogs before being favorites as they host Seattle (a notoriously bad road team) next week. Teams are 92-52 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons.

Buffalo is also in a bunch of bad spots, starting with the classic sandwich game spot. Teams are 57-82 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs and before being dogs. This works for one of two reasons depending on the type of team favored. For good teams, the sandwich game gives them an opportunity for an “easy” win to get on the right page after a tough loss before playing another tough team. They tend to overlook their opponents. For bad teams, well they shouldn’t be favored. Buffalo is clearly one of the latter teams.

They’re also in a bad spot after coming so close to knocking off divisional rival New England as huge dogs last week. Favorites are 22-30 ATS off a loss as divisional double digit dogs since 1989 and divisional favorites after a loss as divisional dogs are 96-112 ATS since 1989. Neither of those trends is particularly strong, but if you combine them, you get that teams are 5-12 ATS as divisional favorites off a loss as double digit divisional dogs. Meanwhile, favorites on Thursday Nights are 0-4 ATS off a divisional loss as dogs.

I like Miami for a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 413 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 413 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time. I also like the under, as usual, on Thursday Night. The under is 71-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)

Miami Dolphins 23 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Miami +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 10 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 Results

ATS: 7-7 +5 units/+$370

SU: 8-5-1

Upset Picks: 1-1 +20

Over/Under: 1-1 -10

Total: +$380

Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 73-68-5 +19 units/+$255

SU: 93-52-1

Upset Picks: 26-24 +$2160

Over/Under: 6-4-1 +160

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +2675

Survivor: 8-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Public Results ATS*: 70-74-2 -2 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

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