2012 Week 12 NFL Picks

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bears, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3)

Jay Cutler might be the most undervalued player in the NFL. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, the Bears are 14-5 and score 26.8 points per game. When he doesn’t, they are 1-6 and average just 13.1 points per game. That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack.

I thought they’d survive without him against the 49ers because Jason Campbell is much better than Hanie and because Forte was healthy and because they added Brandon Marshall and because it was a one game absence rather than a morale crushing season ending injury and because the defense was allowing a touchdown fewer per game than last season, but I was totally wrong. Jason Campbell, believe it or not, is actually an experienced backup with some success in the NFL and he looked as bad as Hanie did last year on this offense.

Excluding the Houston game in which he got hurt before halftime, Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 starts, with the one loss coming on short rest on the road in Green Bay way back in week 2, which is very excusable. Before Cutler got hurt, this team led the NFL in points differential. One team every year goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye and the Bears are by far the most likely team to do so. They’ll have to win out, but with Cutler healthy, I don’t doubt that’s possible. Their biggest test the rest of the way is home for Green Bay, in a huge revenge game that could be the difference between them being the 2nd seed and the 5th seed in the NFC.

Given how good they were before Cutler got hurt, I find it kind of strange that people are doubting them. I don’t think you can really hold their last 2 games against them too much. It’s a shame because Houston and San Francisco would have provided huge benchmark games for them if he was healthy, but now I don’t think we learned a ton about them in the past 2 weeks.

However, people seem to think we have. This line was Chicago -6.5 a week ago and now it’s expected to open at -4.5, according the LV Hilton line. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Chicago -7 and using the yards per play differential method, this line should be Chicago -1.5, which averages out right around -4.5, but those numbers also take into account 1 ½ games that the Bears played without Cutler and a fluky loss in Green Bay. We’re getting line value with them. I think the Bears are an underrated bunch right now.

Those lines also fail to take into account that Percy Harvin will be out for the Vikings. Harvin missed their game against Detroit before the bye and they were still able to win and put up yards through the air and points, but that was against Detroit’s crappy secondary. Christian Ponder is still a young and inconsistent quarterback who could really, really struggle against the Bears’ elite secondary missing really his only weapon in the passing game. This line should really be around the -6.5 it was at last week.

Normally teams struggle after a Monday Night blowout loss. Teams are 12-22 ATS since 2002 off a MNF loss of 21 or more, excluding teams coming off a bye. However, the Bears’ blowout loss was a little fluky because they were missing such a big part of their team and now I think they’re actually underrated because of how poorly they’ve played in the past 2 weeks.

With Cutler back, I like them to get a statement win against the Harvin-less Vikings and win by double digits for the league leading 6th time this season (Houston, New England, and Denver all entered this week at 5, New England went up to 6 and Denver has yet to play). Fun fact: Since 1989, 16 teams have started 7-1 or better and then lost 2 straight, including now these Bears. Excluding meaningless week 17 games, teams are 10-2 ATS after losing 2 straight, including 9-1 ATS as favorites. It’s a small play on the Bears. If the line opens as 4 or less (unlikely) it’s 3 units, anything from 4 to 5.5 is 2, and anything from 6 up is one unit.

Public lean: ?

Sharps lean: MIN 5 CHI 1

Final update: This is unsurprisingly tied for the least picked game of the week on LV Hilton. Why would anyone want to make a pick on this game without knowing if Cutler would start (LV Hilton picks are due Saturday Morning)?

Final update part 2: This line opened at -6 Sunday Morning so there’s pretty much been no line movement or overreaction from last week, which costs us all line value. I still think the Bears bounce back in a big way, but it’s 1 unit.

Chicago Bears 27 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -6 (-110) 1 unit

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 12 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

I was expecting the Eagles to be favored in this one and I was going to make a big play on Carolina for several reasons. The first and most obvious is that the Eagles appear to have quit. Even if they haven’t, they have really struggled to cover as favorites in the last 2 seasons, going 5-13 ATS in this situation. This was also a sandwich game situation for them, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs.

Teams are 58-81 ATS in this spot since 2008. The logic is that good teams in that situation will see this game as an easy rest game to get back on track and not take their opponent seriously and that bad teams don’t deserve to be favorites in the first place. Philadelphia is the latter. Proving bad teams struggle as favorites, home favorites are 27-38 ATS since 2008 before being road dogs in two straight. The Eagles go to Dallas and Tampa Bay in their next 2.

In fact, unless they’re favored at home week 15 against Cincinnati or week 16 at home against Washington, Philadelphia might not be favored the rest of the way (5 games). Favorites before being dogs in 5 or more straight are 11-24 ATS since 2008. Favorites after being dogs in 3 straight are also 39-53 ATS since 2008, a situation Philadelphia is in. All of these are ways of showing that bad teams struggle to cover as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Panthers would have been dogs before being favorites, going to Kansas City next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot in the last 2 years. Combining that trend with the sandwich game trend, teams are 111-56 ATS as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs since 2008. On top of all of this, the Panthers are coming a home loss in overtime, a situation teams are 45-29 ATS in since 2002, including 19-10 ATS off a loss as home dogs.

However, when this line opened mid week (there was some speculation that Vick might return), the Eagles opened as 2.5 point dogs, which ruined what could have been a big play. That’s a ridiculous 5.5 point line movement from where this line was last week (Philadelphia -3). I know the Eagles are horrible and going into this one without LeSean McCoy, but that kind of line movement is reserved for a franchise type quarterback getting hurt.

It’s a bit of an overreaction and costs us all line value. Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be Carolina -1.5 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Philadelphia -8. Those two average at about the Philadelphia -3 we were at before. Of course, those numbers don’t truly take into account how terrible this team is, especially now that they seem to have quit on Head Coach Andy Reid and new quarterback Nick Foles (there are rumors that Reid was afraid to bench Vick earlier in the season for fear he’d completely lose the team). However, there’s definitely no line value with the Panthers at all here.

I still like the Panthers to win and cover, but the line movement (accompanied by a slight public lean on Carolina in a week where the odds makers seem due for a big week after a rough 3 week stretch), makes things more complicated. It also knocks out a ton of good trends. The Panthers are still coming off a loss as home dogs in overtime and one more trend does open up. Contrary to what’s maybe logical, road dogs with 2 wins or fewer do actually tend to cover. In week 9 or later, teams with 2 wins or fewer are actually 10-4 ATS since 1989, meaning they’re generally road favorites for a very good reason. It’s a small lean on the Panthers as long as the line is 3 or fewer.

Public lean: Carolina (60% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 8 PHI 2

Final update: No surprise this was the 3rd least picked game of the week by the sharps. Why would anyone want to pick either of these teams? No change here.

Carolina Panthers 19 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: Week 12 NFL Pick

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St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to take the home team. Since 2007, no division covers more often at home than the NFC West, going 106-79 ATS at home, and conversely no team fails to cover more often on the road, going 74-102 ATS. Given that, it’s reasonable to think that when these teams get together and play a divisional contest, the home team generally covers and they do, going 38-26 ATS since 2007. NFC West divisional games have also gone under the total 40 times out of 64 since 2007, so I like the under as well.

However, this week it might not be a good idea to take Arizona, the home favorite. This is a sandwich game for them, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs. Teams are 58-81 ATS in this spot since 2008. The logic is that good teams in that situation will see this game as an easy rest game to get back on track and not take their opponent seriously and that bad teams don’t deserve to be favorites in the first place. Arizona is the latter.

They might not overlook divisional St. Louis and in fact, when the middle game is divisional and the two “bread” games are non-divisional, the trend is just 12-16 ATS since 2008, 22-25 ATS going back to 2002 to get a larger sample size. However, that wouldn’t be why they would fail to cover because they are a bad team and bad teams shouldn’t be favored. Home favorites are 27-38 ATS since 2008 before being road dogs in two straight and the Cardinals go to the Jets and Seahawks in their next 2.

In fact, unless they’re favored at home week 15 against Detroit, Arizona might not be favored the rest of the way (5 games). Favorites before being dogs in 5 or more straight are 11-24 ATS since 2008. Favorites after being dogs in 4 straight are also 22-31 ATS since 2008, a situation Arizona is in. All of these are ways of showing that bad teams struggle to cover as favorites.

We aren’t really getting any line value at first glance. Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be St. Louis -2 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Arizona -4.5 and when you average those out, you get right around the Arizona -1.5 this line really is at. However, that doesn’t take into account that Arizona has no momentum and has been playing terribly ever since Kevin Kolb got hurt. John Skelton has been benched for Ryan Lindley, a 6th round rookie who might even be worse and he’s favored by 1.5 points. That’s the definition of a bad team being favored.

It also doesn’t take into account that St. Louis is getting healthier on the offensive line. Rodger Saffold returned two weeks ago and solidified the left tackle position. Scott Wells, a Pro-Bowl caliber center, returns this week, which will move Robert Turner, who has actually played well in his absence, to left guard. Assuming Wells is truly healthy and Turner continues to play well at left guard, this line really only has a problem at right tackle, which will make life a lot easier for Sam Bradford. Danny Amendola is out for this one, but things are looking up for the Rams injury wise.

I liked St. Louis better when Arizona was publicly backed, because I don’t like betting against non-publicly backed favorites this week because the odds makers have had a rough 3 weeks and seem due for a big week. Non-publicly faded dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run. When a favorite not publicly backed covers, they get a favorite who covers and they make money (odds makers always win with equal action because of juice).

Because of that and the fact that this is an NFC West divisional matchup, it’s a small play on the Rams. Rather than putting 2 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 3 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 25 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Arizona (50% range)

Sharps lean: STL 13 ARI 3

Final update: Sharps love St. Louis, but I think I’m going to leave the units where they are.

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +115 3 units

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 37 (-110) 1 unit

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 12 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

The Falcons may be 9-1 and the Buccaneers may be 6-4, but the Buccaneers are playing better football right now. They’ve had 5 wins by a touchdown or less against sub .500 teams, including 4 at home. Denver is the only team better than .500 they beat and that was back week 2 before Denver got hot. Despite their 9-1 record, they are just +77 in points differential, 6th in the league (New England, Houston, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago). The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are +57, but in the last 6 weeks, they are +66 to Atlanta’s +29. The Falcons have lost to the Saints and they could easily lose to Tampa Bay this weekend. As I mentioned when they played the Saints, there’s only so long you can play inferior opponent’s close before one of them beats you.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been on fire since the bye, winning 5 of 6, with the one loss coming down to the final play against the Saints. If you showed me tape of this team before the bye, I wouldn’t recognize them. Josh Freeman is 115 of 190 for 1715 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his last 6 games. He has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.0% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 21 of 48 for 862 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly (42 catches for 863 yards and 7 touchdowns) and opening thinks up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David. Even before the bye, they have not lost by more than a touchdown all season. Only the Patriots, Seahawks, and Falcons can also say that.

As you can imagine, we’re getting some line value with the Buccaneers, even before you take into account momentum. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Tampa Bay -3 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Atlanta -2. Tampa Bay should really be the ones favored here at home and yet the Falcons are by -1.5. In spite of that, the public is pounding the Falcons, a bad sign because the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and are due for a big week.

The Falcons also could be caught looking forward to a rematch with the Saints next week on Thursday Night. Favorites are just 24-37 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, including 15-24 ATS before being divisional favorites, which the Falcons should be when they host the Saints in Atlanta. It’s a significant play on Tampa Bay. Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Sharps lean: ATL 16 TB 9

Final update: Sharps like Atlanta, but they also seem to like Tampa Bay too. This is the most bet game of the week by the 44 sharps, with 25 of them having it in their top-5 in LV Hilton one way or another on a 16 game week. I feel fine taking Tampa Bay still. Asante Samuel could be out for the Falcons, which would be a big loss to their secondary in a game where points will be aplenty.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Atlanta Falcons 24 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Browns, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)

Charlie Batch will start this one for the Steelers. He should have started against the Ravens to begin with. He’s always been a solid backup quarterback who can win games when Ben Roethlisberger is hurt (5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS since joining the Steelers). I think he’s a better quarterback than Byron Leftwich. He’s also a better fit for Todd Haley’s quick throw, timing based offense.

He certainly should have come into the game when Byron Leftwich got hurt. Leftwich’s injury made him even more limited as a quarterback and as a result they lost. Batch probably would have been able to convert that 7-0 lead into a victory given how their defense was playing. Either way, the Steelers are definitely in better hands with Charlie Batch under center this week.

Even with Leftwich playing hurt, the Steelers almost knocked off the Ravens, only losing by 3. They outgained them by over 100 yards, but lost the turnover battle 2-0 and allowed a special teams touchdown. Even with the mere 3 point loss, the Steelers improved to 10-4 ATS without Ben Roethlisberger since he took over as the starter in week 3 of 2004.

This week, the Steelers get another familiar foe, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are in a really bad spot this week after coming so close, but losing to the Cowboys in overtime last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. They’ll be exhausted this week for a still tough Steeler team. Since the divisions realigned in 2002, the Browns have won 2 games against the Steelers (out of 21) and have only once been favored or dogs of 1 (they didn’t cover).

Even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers should be able to improve to 20-2 against the Browns as the Browns aren’t a noticeably improved team this year as opposed to the past decade and the Steelers always still play tough without Roethlisberger. Besides, Brandon Weeden will probably be a sitting duck this week against Dick LeBeau’s complex defensive scheme. Dick LeBeau is 17-1 all time against rookie starting quarterbacks, including a blowout victory this season over Robert Griffin III. Weeden is no RGIII.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Steelers is because this is a sandwich game for them. Teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs and before being dogs since 2008. The Steelers lost against Baltimore last week, now are favorites, and then go to Baltimore next week. When all 3 games are divisional, teams are 0-3 ATS in that time period (it doesn’t happen very often) and if we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, the trend is 13-22 ATS.

The logic behind that is that the Steelers have just played a tough game, lost, and now have another tough game next week. They might overlook the lowly Browns and see this as an easy win to get themselves back on the right track before a tough game and get caught off guard. That being said, they are only 1 point favorites and it’s unlikely they overlook the Browns given that they are still playing without their starting quarterback. Besides, Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss, including 5-3 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs, since taking over in 2007. It’s 3 units on the Steelers and it would have been 4 or 5 if they were dogs and they weren’t publicly backed (as I’ve mentioned, the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and are due for a big week).

Public lean: Pittsburgh (70% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 6 CLE 5

Final update: No change.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1 (-110) 3 units

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Saints

San Francisco 49ers (7-2) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Colin Kaepernick will start this one for the 49ers. Kaepernick was incredibly impressive against a tough Bears defense on Monday Night, going 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 scores in a 32-7 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears. Against St. Louis after Alex Smith got hurt, he was also impressive going 11 of 17 for 117 yards, leading the 49ers back from down to tie the game. He’s apparently done enough to impress Jim Harbaugh as it appears he has “Wally Pipped” Smith and will be the starter from here on out.

With Kaepernick in, the 49ers have become a lot of people’s Super Bowl favorite. Alex Smith did a decent job, but there was always a feeling that he was a limiting factor on a team that was loaded with talent elsewhere. I don’t disagree. Smith was the limiting factor on this team. They have the defense, the running game, the offensive line. They rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential.

Kaepernick makes the run even more dangerous because teams have to respect the deep ball now and because they also have to respect Kaepernick’s own running ability. They have an incredibly complex playbook, but Kaepernick allows them to use more of it with his athletic gifts and it didn’t appear he had any issues with the mental part of it either, which was formerly Alex Smith’s biggest advantage.

I’m just not 100% sold on Kaepernick yet. He’s yet to face a team that’s known he was coming. The Rams probably didn’t do a whole lot of preparing for Kaepernick before their game against the 49ers because they didn’t know Smith would get hurt. The Bears might have done more preparation, but remember, Alex Smith wasn’t ruled out until Monday. There was actually a general sense that Smith would start until he was ruled out. The odds makers even posted a line on Saturday Night assuming Smith would start and then had to lower it Monday when they found out Kaepernick was going to start.

The Saints, this week, know he’s coming. Jim Harbaugh did his best to keep it a secret that Kaepernick was his guy, but in this 24/7 news cycle world, that’s almost impossible. The Saints have been preparing for a Kaepernick-lead team all or most of the week and now have a game and a half of NFL game tape of him. They won’t take him lightly, which the Bears and Rams might have, after seeing what he did to a tough Bears defense. This is also Kaepernick’s first road game and playing in New Orleans is no picnic, even if they’ve had better years.

Finally, I just don’t like to overreact to one game too much. The 49ers were 6th in my Power Rankings a week ago, which seemed very reasonable, making them a fringe contender. Kaepernick was great, but it was just one game. I’m not ready to make them a Super Bowl favorite after 1 week, though I acknowledge they could potentially be very dangerous and the first team I’m really, really sold on if Kaepernick keeps it up and continues to play at a high level.

Even though I don’t like to overreact to one game and I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, I still like the 49ers this week and there are 4 reasons why what I mentioned early doesn’t really matter. First, the Saints’ defense is atrocious. Kaepernick might not be as good as he looked on Monday Night, but that probably wouldn’t even matter. No team allows more yards per play than they do and only the Titans allow a higher rate of sustaining drives (what percentage of sets of downs you convert for another 1st or a score).

Because of this, we’re getting good line value with the 49ers, which is the 2nd reason I like the 49ers. The yards per play differential method of computing real line gives us a real line of San Francisco -8.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of San Francisco -6. This line is at just -1, which is actually down from -2.5, where it was a week ago. As good as the 49ers looked on Monday Night, this line has still shifted in favor of New Orleans in the past week, because they blew out crappy Oakland.

Even with the line movement, the public is still on New Orleans, which is the third reason I like the 49ers. The odds makers have had a rough 3 weeks and are due for a big week. Betting on a publicly backed team this week is risky this week, especially a publicly backed dog. Public dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run.

The 49ers may be a bit overrated based off of one game of Kaepernick right now, but the Saints are incredibly overrated and overvalued by the public. The Saints are very, very good in the red zone converting for a touchdown 71% of the time, best in the league and even defensively they aren’t terrible in the red zone (53%, 17th in the league), so that takes away some of the line value, since neither method really puts much emphasis on red zone efficiency. However, it’s not like the 49ers are a bad red zone team, converting 59% of the time, 9th in the league, and allowing their opponents to convert 53% of the time, 16th in the league. We are major getting line value with the 49ers any way you look at it.

The 4th reason is that they’re in a very strong spot coming off a Monday Night Football blowout. Excluding teams coming off a bye, teams are 27-11 ATS since 2002 after a Monday Night Football win by 21 more and the 49ers won by 25. I’m not 100% sold on Kaepernick, but the 49ers have serious line value on their side, a powerful trend on their side, and they are a favorite not backed by the public. I would have taken them even if it were Smith starting this one, though maybe for fewer units. Still, for that reason, I’m going to take them for a significant play even in New Orleans, where Drew Brees is 5-1 ATS as a dog.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

Sharps lean: NO 10 SF 3

Final update: Sharps do like New Orleans, but I disagree. That 27-11 ATS trend is pretty powerful and the Saints are overrated right now.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -1 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: Week 12 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

I’ve called Indianapolis a perpetually underrated team all year. Starting week 2, they were home dogs for Minnesota, 3 point home favorites for Jacksonville, touchdown home dogs for the Packers, 3.5 point road dogs against the Jets, 1 point home favorites for Cleveland, 3.5 point road dogs against the Titans, home dogs for Miami, 3.5 road favorites for Jacksonville, and then as a 6-3 team they were 9 point dogs in New England last week.

They’ve had some games in there where they didn’t cover, but given how well they’ve played, those lines look pretty ridiculous and not just in hindsight. The only time in there I didn’t bet on them was as 3.5 point road favorites in Jacksonville (what seemed like a reasonable line) and they have covered 6 out of 9 lines, including 4 straight (all wins) before running into red hot New England last week.

This week, they continue to be underrated as they are just 3 point home favorites for the Bills, which suggests that these two teams are equal (3 points for home field advantage). I just don’t think that’s true. Yes, they were blown out last week, but before that they were a hot young team and the blowout loss could be a good sign for them this year. Teams are 37-19 ATS since 2002 off a loss of 35 or more as dogs. Those teams tend to be angry, overlooked, and undervalued.

There really hasn’t been much of a line movement despite that huge loss, for some reason, as it’s gone from -4 to -3 (though 3 is a very, very key number), but they’re still undervalued. The fact remains that they were undervalued a week ago as well. It’s ridiculous that this line was -4 a week ago. As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Colts. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Indianapolis -2.5. When you average those out, you get a line significantly higher than this -3.

That being said, it’s not going to be a big play on Indianapolis because they’re actually in a really bad spot, blowout loss last week aside. Since 2008, teams are 58-81 ATS as favorites after a loss as dogs before being dogs, the so called sandwich game trend. The Colts obviously lost as dogs last week and now they’re favorites before going to Detroit, where they will be dogs, next week. For what it’s worth, teams coming off a blowout loss of 35 or more are 1-2 ATS in that time period, 10-15 ATS off a loss by 21 or more.

Meanwhile, the Bills are dogs before being favorites as they host the Jaguars next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 years. When you combine that trend and the sandwich game trend, you get that teams are 111-56 ATS as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs since 2008, including 34-13 ATS when all 3 games (the current game, your next game, and your opponent’s next game) all are non-divisional. The Bills are also rested off a Thursday game. Teams are 116-96 ATS on a Sunday coming off a Thursday game.

This game simply means different things to these two teams. For the Bills, this is a potential statement game with no distractions on the horizon. For the Colts, this is a chance to get an “easy” win to get things right before facing a tough opponent again next week. The fact that the Colts are coming off a blowout loss might make it less likely they overlook these Bills (not to mention all the ChuckStrong stuff) and they are definitely undervalued by this line, but it’s only a play small on the Colts, especially with the public all over them. The odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and seem due for a big week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (70% range)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 IND 7

Final update: No change.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3 (-110) 2 units

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs

Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS as divisional home dogs after being non-divisional home dogs. When you go back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, that trend is just 28-27 ATS.

Meanwhile, fading touchdown road dogs is generally a good idea, which makes sense. It’s really hard, no matter who you are, of winning by a touchdown or more on the road. Touchdown plus road favorites are 80-99 ATS since 2002, but only 31-33 ATS in the division. You’d think it would be stronger in the division because it’s tough to go into a divisional opponent and blow them out because they know you so well, making up for some of the talent gap, but that’s not the case. In fact, since 1989, double digit road favorites in the division are 25-27 ATS.

We are getting some line value with the Chiefs. The yards per play differential method (which the Broncos lead) gives us a real line of Denver -12.5, but the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Denver -4, which averages out to be noticeably less than the -10.5 this line really is. At the same time, this line has made a major shift in the last week as it was at -7 a week ago and still the public is pounding the Broncos, noteworthy because the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and need to make money back, which they always do eventually. Bad teams in a divisional matchup always seem to do well in the 2nd half of the season anyway as dogs with 1 win or fewer are 64-35 ATS as divisional dogs after week 9 since 1989.

That being said, I can’t take the Chiefs here. The Broncos have all the momentum, which eats away at the Chiefs’ line value, maybe entirely and the Chiefs have decided to go back to Brady Quinn at quarterback, who is absolutely horrible, worse than Matt Cassel’s. Cassel’s issue was turnovers, but when he avoids them, he’s serviceable. Quinn rarely turns the ball over and has still never been serviceable. In his career, he completes 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA and 10 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. I hate laying this many points on the road, but the Broncos should be the right side. The Broncos are also my survivor pick, as much as I hate taking road teams in survivor. I would be stunned if the Broncos lost this one and for some reason I still haven’t used them.

Public lean: Denver (80% range)

Sharps lean: KC 5 DEN 1

Final update: This is tied for the least picked game of the week in LV Hilton. That’s no surprise. No one wants to lay double digits on the road, but no one wants to take the Chiefs either. I feel the same way.

Denver Broncos 31 Kansas City Chiefs 9 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL)

Pick against spread: Denver -10.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6)

As I mentioned in the Tennessee/Jacksonville write up, one situation I love betting on is road favorites after a bye. It’s strong for divisional matchups, as teams are 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye since 2002, but that trend is still 22-12 ATS for non-divisional matchups and 44-15 ATS overall, so it’s not like it’s not a huge factor in this game.

Whenever, I use that trend, I always check to make sure the team does deserve to be road favorites. Betting road favorites off a bye is great, but if you’re betting on a team that doesn’t deserve to be road favorites, it’s not so good. In order to do this, I use the two methods of computing line value. The rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Seattle -2 and the yards per play differential method says this line should be Seattle -1.5. We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Dolphins +3, especially considering this line shifted 3 whole points in the past week just because Miami lost as dogs by 5 in Buffalo, but we do have confirmation that the Seahawks are deserving road favorites, so that powerful trend can be used, at least in usual cases.

However, this is not a usual case. Because these are the Seahawks, there is one other layer we have to look at. The Seahawks suck on the road. No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past several years than the Seahawks, who are 32-14 ATS at home and 16-30 ATS on the road since 2007. In past picks, I’ve even mentioned that because the Seattle outscore opponents by an average of 4 points per game at home and get outscored by 8 points per game on the road, lines in their games should use 6 points for home field advantage, rather than 3, which would no longer make the Seahawks deserve road favorites.

On top of that, the Dolphins are rested as well, coming off a Thursday Night game. Teams are 116-96 ATS off a Thursday Night game on a Sunday since 1989. This game is also a 1 PM start on the East Coast, normally a bad situation for West Coast teams. The Seahawks are an especially bad 4-15 ATS on the East Coast at 1 PM. Since 2007, they aren’t awful as road favorites, going 4-5 ATS, but if you go back to just 2005, that becomes 6-11 ATS.

The last time they were road favorites off a bye, they failed to cover and in the division too, one of the three ATS losses in that situation since 2002. Further damning the Seahawks, they are even worse on the road off a bye, 2-6 ATS since 2002, and not off another road game, 11-22 ATS. The Dolphins are in a bad spot too though as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional home dogs, a situation teams are 11-22 ATS in since 2002. They could be caught looking forward to New England next week.

Overall, there’s a ton going on here. The Seahawks are deserving road favorites off a bye by traditional methods, but they’re a terrible road team, especially at 1 PM ET on the East Coast and the Dolphins are pretty rested as well and have a little bit of line value even before you factor in the Seahawks road troubles. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also in a bad spot and could be caught looking forward to New England next week, though if the 4-6 Dolphins have any playoff ambitions, they pretty much need to win here, so maybe they won’t overlook them.

The public is also heavy on Seattle and because the odds makers need to make money back off a rough 3 week stretch, I’m going to make that the tiebreaker and take Miami, but it would be a zero unit pick if I did them and low in confidence pools. I wish we were getting 3.5 though. This one feels like it will be a push. Actually, if there were some way I could get 5:1 odds this game would be decided by exactly 3 points, I’d probably take that.

Public lean: Seattle (80% range)

Sharps lean: SEA 8 MIA 6

Final update: No change.

Seattle Seahawks 19 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-110) 1 unit

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves to be favorites, but here the Titans do. Using the yards per play differential method computing of line value, the Titans should be 1.5 point favorites and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method says the Titans should be 1 point favorites. We’re getting a bit of line value with the Jaguars, but not enough to combat that trend.

The Titans aren’t a very good team at 4-6, with a -91 points differential. Only Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City have a points differential worse than them. However, even sub .500 teams are 9-4 ATS as road favorites since 2002. And the Jaguars are so bad that the Titans do deserve to be road favorites. They are -1.1 in yards per play differential. No one else is worse than -0.9. They are -15.2% in rate of sustaining drives differential. No one else is worse than -9.5%. The Titans are the -9.5% team, and they are coming off a fluky win (teams that score 28 or more points as dogs despite 300 or fewer yards go 43-64 ATS in their next game) but they still deserve to be road favorites. The Jaguars don’t deserve to be favorites against anyone.

Chad Henne is now the Jaguars’ starting quarterback. He looked great against Houston, certainly better Blaine Gabbert ever was, going 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s notorious for being inconsistent. This is still the same quarterback that got benched for Matt Moore in Miami and who completed 9 of 20 for 71 yards against Oakland’s terrible secondary, blowing a big lead, a few weeks ago. I’m not worried too much about him as an “X-factor” or anything like that.

The Jaguars are also in a terrible spot coming off that near win against the Texans last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. It’s going to be very, very tough for this crappy 1-9 team to get up after losing the biggest game of their season against a huge division rival and the best team in the NFL record wise. Furthermore, teams are 5-15 ATS since 2002 off a divisional overtime loss as dogs.

The Titans should be able to win this one pretty easily so it’s a significant play on the road favorite. That 22-3 ATS trend is hard to ignore, especially in conjunction with an 18-46 ATS trend and a 5-15 ATS trend. I also really like that this isn’t a huge public lean on Tennessee because the odds makers do need to make back some money after a rough 3 week stretch. I just wish we had field goal protection.

Public lean: Tennessee (60% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 20 JAX 4

Final update: This is the biggest sharps lean of the week and I’m glad it’s on one of my 4-unit co-picks of the week. The LV Hilton spread is Tennessee -3 and if I had that, I’d put 5 units on it and make it a true pick of the week, but I have it at -3.5, so it’s 4.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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