2012 Week 12 NFL Picks

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Giants, Packers

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4)

What’s wrong with the Giants? That’s what everyone is asking. Well, they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the last 8 games of the season, including these last 2 losses. Eli Manning has been the main problem of late and not just in the 2 losses. Dating back to their two close wins over Washington and Dallas, Manning is 80 of 139 for 869 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games.

Manning reportedly had a case of tired arm, which does explain why he’s struggled by his standards, but tired arm isn’t some rare thing. It’s something guys often have to deal with over the course of the season. The Giants have had a bye, but I can’t say for sure that Manning will completely turn things around and the same for the Giants as a whole, given the Giants’ history in the 2nd half in the Coughlin/Manning era.

I’ve mentioned the huge disparity in records, but Eli’s play generally drops off in the 2nd half. In the 1st half of the season, he completes 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions. In the 2nd half, he completes 57.2% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 86 touchdowns, and 79 interceptions. I don’t think the bye is going to solve their problems. They especially struggle as home favorites after week 8, going 10-20 ATS since 2004.

The Packers, meanwhile, are incredibly banged up. They’re missing 3 of their starting linebackers, Nick Perry, Desmond Bishop, and Clay Matthews. Matthews is the most important injury because he’s their only consistent pass rusher. DJ Smith, who was filling in for Bishop in the middle, is also hurt. Stud starting safety Charles Woodson is also out, as is #1 receiver Greg Jennings and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

In spite of all this, they are on a 5 game winning streak. I do think they’re a little overrated. They rank just 8th in rate of sustaining drives differential and 15th in yards per play differential, but the Giants are a little overrated too and the Packers thrive in this situation, as dogs. Aaron Rodgers is 11-5 ATS in his career getting points, which makes sense. Besides, they are dogs before being favorites as they host the Vikings next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The line is exactly where it should be. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value says this line should be Giants -3.5, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Giants -1.5, which averages out exactly where the line is, -2.5. However, the Packers have the momentum and the Giants don’t. They always struggle in the 2nd half of the season and I love getting Rodgers as a dog. It’s a significant play on the Packers. It would be 4 units if the public wasn’t pounding Green Bay as a public dog.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: GB 12 NYG 11

Final update: No change.

Green Bay Packers 31 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Green Bay +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems to be the public sentiment this week as the public is pounding Baltimore as small road favorites, but I’ll tell you why San Diego is a smart bet this week.

The first reason is pretty simple and it’s just that the public loves Baltimore. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it’s smart to bet against public leans, especially heavy public leans. If you were to do that over the course of a season, you’d probably win money every year (the only way you wouldn’t would be the juice).This week, I think, it’s especially smart to do so because the odds makers haven’t had a good 3 weeks. They should be due for a big week.

It goes deeper than that too. This is right around the point every season when the Chargers start playing incredibly well. In his career, Philip Rivers is 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they’re still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover last week in Denver. As underdogs, as they are here, Rivers is 12-4 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-0 ATS as home dogs. It’s rare that the Chargers have been home dogs in the Philip Rivers era, this is only the 5th time, but they are 3-1 ATS in the first 4 instances, including a late season (week 15) blowout win over these Ravens last year (34-14). More on that game later. The Chargers are also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites (they host Cincinnati next week). Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. As good as they are at home (16 straight wins), they generally struggle as road favorites, going 1-5 ATS as non-divisional home favorites in the last 2 seasons. Last year, they lost to 4 non-playoff teams on the road, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, and these Chargers, in a game that was situation wise very similar to this one. I put a big play on the 6-7 Chargers against the 10-3 Ravens last year and I’m going to do it again this year. This year, they barely beat the lowly Chiefs in Kansas City. They also generally struggle on the West Coast (2-10 ATS in franchise history).

Besides, if you think about it, what’s their motivation here? They have a 2 game lead on the division after their win over Pittsburgh last week and next week they play the Steelers again. If they beat the Steelers next week, they’ll have at least a 2 game lead on the division and the tiebreaker even if they lose this game. This game means nothing. Teams, for whatever reason, tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, going a ridiculous 18-40 ATS since 2002 (no other team has a trend like that). The Ravens are 3-6 ATS after beating them in that time period. They probably won’t get up for this game and will underachieve against a Chargers team that always gets hot at this time and who beat them in this exact situation last year.

The Ravens are overrated anyway. They’re only +61 in points differential and most of that came from two wins against Cincinnati and crappy Oakland. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they haven’t had a particularly tough schedule. They could have easily lost to Pittsburgh last week if Charlie Batch had stepped in for Leftwich when he got clearly hurt. They are just 9th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

They allow more yards per game than they gain. Against Pittsburgh, they were outgained by over 100 yards and even against Oakland, a huge win, they got outgained. They’re doing really well with turnovers. Only New England (+20) has a better turnover differential than their +12, but that’s not sustainable and their wins have been close enough that it’s definitely something to worry about. They’re also only 4-6 ATS against the spread.

As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Chargers. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be San Diego -3 and using the yards per play differential method, this should be a pick em. Neither one says that the Ravens should be road favorites here and I agree, trends aside. With trends factored in, the Chargers seem like the clear choice, especially with the public heavy on Baltimore in a week where the odds makers need to make their money back. We might even see another 34-14 type game.

It’s a big play on the Chargers. I’m not worried at all that they’ve quit on Norv Turner. As bad of a Head Coach as he is, they have never fully quit on him and just given up on a season. Philip Rivers is a huge supporter of his Head Coach and this bunch will play hard to save his job, like they always do late in the season. They’re not getting run out of the building. The last game they played where they didn’t keep it even close was week 3. They’re still playing hard.

Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Baltimore (80% range)

Sharps lean: SD 14 BAL 4

Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lines up with one of my picks of the week, a very good sign.

San Diego Chargers 27 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule out them losing out. The Lions at 4-6 are the favorite this year and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this year (only happened once in the last decade).  However, looking at the Bengals’ remaining schedule, they’re only definitely going to be favored in one more game, this one at home for Oakland. At Philadelphia and home for Dallas are other options, but if they lost this week, they could conceivably, but improbably, lose out.

Will they lose at home this week to the Raiders? I won’t say it’s impossible. Teams are 36-16 ATS off back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, and the Raiders have lost 55-20 and 38-17 in their last two games. Teams tend to be embarrassed, playing for pride, undervalued, and overlooked by their opponent in this spot. That trend is actually a perfect 4-0 ATS and SU this year and has led to such upsets as Tennessee over Detroit, Tennessee over Pittsburgh, Buffalo over Arizona, and last week’s NY Jets over St. Louis. This line has shifted 2.5 points in the last week (from -5.5 to -8), so the Raiders are definitely undervalued. In spite of this, the public is still on the Bengals, important since the odds makers desperately need to make money back after a bad 3 week stretch, though it’s not a huge lean.

The Raiders are also dogs before being favorites. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. They host the crappy Browns next week, so they’ll be completely focused for the Bengals this week in a pride game. I can’t say the Bengals will be completely focused for them, however. The Raiders certainly don’t scare anyone right now and the Bengals have to go to San Diego next week, where they will almost definitely be underdogs. Teams are 111-56 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will be dogs the following week, including 34-13 ATS when all three games (the current game, their next game, and their opponent’s next game) are all non-divisional. This game simply means different things to these two teams.

Besides, the Bengals tend to disappoint as favorites. Since 2007, they are 6-14 ATS as home favorites. Even in the last two years, when young Andy Dalton has had a ton of success against non-playoff teams (9-0 last year against non-playoff teams, 4-2 this year against teams currently outside of the playoffs), they are just 2-4 ATS as home favorites. In total in the Marvin Lewis era (going back to 2003), they are 14-25 ATS as home favorites, including just 3-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

We’re also getting some line value with the Bengals. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says this line should be Cincinnati -5.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Cincinnati -7, both of which are lower than this -8 line. 8 points seems like too many points even if the Raiders didn’t have a significant trends advantage.

The Raiders should cover this spread and there’s a decent chance they could even win this game. This would be a bigger play on the Raiders if it wasn’t for 3 things. First, the Raiders have burned me twice in the last 2 weeks, though I never really let this scare me off, any team can cover at any time and the Raiders are undervalued and possibly very embarrassed. I say possibly because there’s a chance they may have quit on their Head Coach, which is the 2nd reason, but they have a 1st year Head Coach so it’s unlikely they’ve already quit. Third, and most significantly, the Raiders have to travel as a West Coast team to the Eastern time zone for a 1 PM start. Teams tend to struggle in this spot. The Raiders are just 7-14 ATS in this situation since 2002. It’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: OAK 9 CIN 2

Final update: All 3 of my co-picks of the week line up with heavy sharps lean. I always have my best weeks when that happens.

Oakland Raiders 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +330

Pick against spread: Oakland +8 (-110) 4 units

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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Texans

Houston Texans (9-1) at Detroit Lions (5-5)

Every year the Lions have a Thanksgiving home game and every year they struggle. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 Thanksgiving home games. Even last year when they were good and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they didn’t play well on Thanksgiving, losing 27-15 against the Green Bay Packers. Most of these losses haven’t even been close: 20-12 in 2002, 41-9 in 2004 (2003 was the year they won), 27-7 in 2005, 27-10 in 2006, 37-26 in 2007, 47-10 in 2008, 34-12 in 2009, 45-24 in 2010, and then of course the game last year.

However, this year they are in a good spot on Thanksgiving. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 15-4 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites (the Lions host the Colts next week), though when you go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 21-15 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. Still, it’s a good spot for the Lions.

We’re also getting some line value with the Lions. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of calculating line value (which Houston leads the league in), says this line should be Houston -4.5, but the yards per play differential method says that Detroit should actually be favored by 2.5 points. Average those out and you get that this line should be around Houston -1. This line was closer to that earlier this week, but heavy action on the Texans has driven it all the way up to Houston -3.5. Given that the odds makers have lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks and they’re bound to make it up, it’s not a smart idea to take heavy public leans this week, though I guess it’s good to see the line moving in the correct direction. There’s no opposite line movement here.

The Texans are in a good spot too though. Teams are 10-3 ATS off an overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. It seems that almost suffering a major upset has the same impact as actually suffering a major upset (teams do really well after suffering a major upset as well). It’s a big wakeup call and I expect the Texans to be 100% this week. Remember the Patriots after their overtime win against the Jets (45-7) and even the 49ers last week after their tie with the Rams? The Texans are that caliber of a team. The Lions, meanwhile, are just 7-12 ATS since 2001 after playing the Packers, which is something that could have an impact on this game.

There’s a lot of conflicting stuff going on in this one and it would be a zero unit pick if I did them, but gun to my head, I’d take Houston in this one, though it’d be low in any confidence pools. The reason is that, almost every year one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Detroit is at 4-6 right now, while the rest of last year’s playoff teams are all 5-5 or better.

I’m probably going to bet against all 3 of last year’s playoff teams with 5 wins or fewer this week, especially Detroit because they look like the favorite to do so (their remaining schedule is brutal: vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, @ Arizona, vs. Atlanta, and vs. Chicago). With a 3.5 point spread, it’s conceivable the Lions could cover and not win (about 25% of the time when 3.5 point dogs lose, they still cover), which is why I would have preferred this line at -2, where it was earlier this week, but I don’t think Detroit wins this one, especially considering their history on Thanksgiving. It’s a very small play on Houston. I also like the under as the under is 72-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Houston Texans 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 50.5 (-110) 1 unit

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: Week 12 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6)

The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the “next man up” thing offensively better than the Patriots. Remember when Aaron Hernandez went down and people thought it was a big deal?

Tom Brady’s favorite receiver has always been the open one. They’ll be fine without Gronkowski for a few weeks. They still have Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez (returning from injury this week), Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman. That’s probably a better receiving corps than they had when they won their 3 Super Bowls. Tom Brady has never needed great receivers and no team makes week to week adjustments for injuries better than the Patriots.

They’re averaging 35.8 points per game this season, the 2nd most in NFL history (16 games seasons), right behind…yep, the 2007 Patriots. They’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points and won 7 games by a combined 137, leading the league with a +133 points differential. In a way, they’re playing as well as they did in 2007, without having the pressure of being undefeated thanks to some close losses. Defensively, Aqib Talib has stabilized things in the secondary, even if only a little. Coming off a 59 point performance against the Colts, I would not want to bet against them, especially since some people are doubting them in the wake of Gronkowski’s recent injury. They thrive off that kind of thing.

Despite their offensive outburst last week, this line hasn’t moved. It was at -7 last week and it’s at -7 again this week, probably because of the Gronkowski injury. I know the Jets won too, but before that they were regarded as one of the worst teams in the NFL. One win over a 3-6 Rams team doesn’t change that. Plus, teams typically fare well the week after scoring a ton of points as teams are 23-14 ATS as favorites since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. It’s worth noting this line opened at -5.5, but a ton of action on the favorite drove it up to -7. I hate picking a heavily backed favorite given that the odds makers have been struggling of late and seem due for a big week, but at least the line movement is going in the right direction.

I mentioned I wouldn’t want to bet against the Patriots right now. Well, it’s generally not a good idea to bet on them in a regular season game in week 10 or later. In the last 3 years, they have not dropped a single regular season game in week 10 or later, going 18-0, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game and going 12-6 ATS. On average, they cover the spread by 12 points per game over that time period (including ATS losses). Those games have also gone over the total a ridiculous 16 out of 18 times, so I like the over here as well, even on Thursday Night.

Also, while the Patriots tend to struggle at home as favorites of more than a touchdown (6-11 ATS in the last 3 seasons), they are a covering machine in all other situations going 21-8 ATS. They were big home favorites in their last 2 games (1-1 ATS), but now they are on the road. It might seem weird to say that the Patriots are more likely to cover as big road favorites than big home favorites, but it’s true. Besides, look at their road wins this year. They beat Tennessee 34-13, Buffalo 52-28, and St. Louis 45-7 (on a neutral surface).

They’ll also have plenty of motivation in this one as the Jets almost beat them last time. Belichick hasn’t forgotten. The Patriots are 9-4 ATS trying to avenge an overtime game in the Belichick era, including 2-0 ATS in same season. They’re also 6-2 ATS avenging a same season win by less than a touchdown. They won’t let themselves be caught off guard by the Jets twice in the same season. All signs point to this being another blowout win for a Patriots team that already has a whopping 4 wins by 21 or more this season. I hate betting on huge public leans and betting against line value, but it’s a small play on the Patriots.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: New England -7 (-110) 2 units

Total: Over 48 (-110) 1 unit

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys

Washington Redskins (4-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

People really seem to have soured on the Cowboys after their near loss to the Browns last week. This line was at Dallas -6 last week and now it’s at -3 and the public is still pounding the underdog. The fact that the public is pounding the underdog is very important because the public has lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks with 2 losing weeks, including a massive losing week in week 9. They’ll eventually make that money back, so I wouldn’t want to bet a public dog this week. Public dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run.

I also think the line movement is a huge overreaction. Yes, the Cowboys barely beat the Browns, but so has everyone who has played them. Cincinnati beat them by just a touchdown in Cincinnati and then lost to them in the rematch in Cleveland. The Colts only beat them by 4 in Indianapolis and could have easily lost if Josh Gordon didn’t drop an easy touchdown. The Giants trailed 14-0 to them early and beat them by 14 in a game that was a lot closer than the finally score.

They went down to the final play with the Ravens in Baltimore and, then in the rematch in Cleveland, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, who were coming off a bye. The problem was their 5 scores were all field goals and the Ravens scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal. Still, that game was not as close as the final score. They’re not getting run out of the stadium by anyone, so I don’t understand why this line moved 3 points just because the Cowboys played them close. I know the Redskins also blew out the Eagles in the last week, but is that really that impressive? The Eagles suck. The Cowboys blew them out too and in Philadelphia. I love betting against overreactions.

Besides the fact that the Browns always play teams close, the Cowboys’ near loss last week wasn’t that surprising. The Cowboys struggle as home favorites expect for on Thanksgiving (more on that later) and teams tend to struggle as favorites before being divisional favorites on Thursday Night. It’s very, very possible they just overlooked the Browns because they had this game 4 days later. They won’t overlook the Redskins.

As you can expect, we’re getting some line value with the Cowboys. It’s not a ton, but using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, we get a real line of Dallas -4 and using the yards per play differential method, we get a real line of Dallas -3. The Cowboys are the better team, but this line says they’re even (3 points for home field advantage).

Speaking of home field advantage, Tony Romo has never lost a November home game, including 5 Thanksgiving home games. He’s only once failed to cover at home on Thanksgiving (4-1 ATS). The Cowboys tend to struggle as home favorites in general (9-16 ATS since 2009, including last week), but in November and on Thanksgiving in general, they typically do really well. I also don’t really trust Robert Griffin on the road on a short week. As talented as he is, it’s really tough for young teams to travel on a short week. I like the Cowboys for a significant play. I also like the under because the under is 72-53 on Thursdays since 1989.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -3 (-110) 3 units

Total: Under 48 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 11 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks

Week 11 Results

ATS: 5-9 -8 units/$-1010

SU: 7-7

Upset Picks: 1-6 -$835

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: -$1745

Public Results ATS*: 6-8 +5 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 78-77-5 +11 units/-$755

SU: 100-59-1

Upset Picks: 27-30 +$1325

Over/Under: 7-4-1 +260

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +$930

Survivor: 9-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, DAL)

Public Results ATS*: 76-82-2 +3 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.