2012 Week 14 NFL Picks

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) at Chicago Bears (8-4)

The Bears lost last week in upset fashion, but they still have a very good chance to be this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye because the 49ers also lost. If they win 1 more game over their final 4 games than the 49ers do, they will almost definitely be the NFC’s #2 seed this year and they are really the only candidate remaining to fulfill that trend, something that’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

The Seahawks are also a candidate, but they would have to win out, something that could be tough considering the impending suspensions of their cornerbacks. The Bears can easily win out as they are expected to be favorites in every game the rest of the way, including next week at home for Green Bay, which will be by far their toughest game the rest of the way. The 49ers, meanwhile, have to go to New England and Seattle, and will be dogs in at least one, maybe both of those games.

For this reason, I’m not betting against the Bears as small or medium sized favorites the rest of the way. They’re just 3 point favorites here and that definitely counts. Besides, that line is way too small anyway. The Bears rank 8th in net points per drive at 0.46, while the Vikings rank 21st at -0.18. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and push it 3 points in Minnesota’s direction to account for Minnesota’s home field, you get a real line of Chicago -4. That also checks out with DVOA, as these two teams rank 6th and 19th respectively.

That also doesn’t take into account that Jay Cutler is healthy for the Bears. That figure might be skewed by the 1 ½ games that Cutler missed. Excluding the Houston game, in which he got hurt before halftime, the Bears are actually 13-2 straight up in Jay Cutler’s last 15 starts with one of those losses being a very excusable one in Green Bay on a short week. In the last 2 seasons, when he starts, again excluding that Houston game, the Bears are 15-5 and score 27.5 points per game. When he doesn’t, including that Houston game, they are 1-7 and average just 12.3 points per game.

That isn’t all him. For instance, Matt Forte missed a few of those games as well and Caleb Hanie, who started 5 of those games in his absence, is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Still, it shows he has a huge value to this team. He doesn’t put up flashy stats and his body language can be off putting, but the numbers don’t lie. They don’t have a ton of offensive talent. Brandon Marshall is great, but they don’t have another receiver and their offensive line is atrocious. Cutler has done a great job of leading drives in spite of this and he is actually very tough to sack.

That also doesn’t take into account that Harvin is hurt for the Vikings and that the Vikings have no momentum right now. Christian Ponder has been terrible lately, going 96 of 174 (55.2%) for 879 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in his last 6 games. Having Harvin out certainly doesn’t help. The Vikings, while they rank 19th in DVOA, rank 23rd in weighted DVOA, which puts more weight on more recent games, and have really been playing like a bottom-5 team for the last 5-6 weeks.

The Bears have some injuries, as well, as Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings expected to miss this game as well. Urlacher’s injury isn’t a huge deal because he’s overrated at this point in his career and Jennings’ won’t matter, at least in this game, because Christian Ponder is too limited to take advantage. Adrian Peterson will go bonkers on an overrated (22nd in YPC allowed) and Urlacher-less Bears’ run defense because that’s like his thing, but Christian Ponder will struggle against the Bears’ #3 pass defense, even without Jennings. They’ve still got plenty of talented defensive backs and good depth and Ponder just isn’t very good.

As we saw last week, Peterson alone can’t carry this team to victory. In fact, as good as Peterson is, this team is only 1-4 when Ponder completes fewer than 60% of his passes this season. Conversely, they’re actually 3-2 on the rare occasions when Peterson has been held to less than 5 YPC. They need a good game from Ponder here to pull off the home upset and I don’t think they’ll get it.

One trend is on Chicago’s side. Teams are 26-12 ATS off a home loss in overtime, exclude road dogs, since 2002. When the team is road favorites like the Bears are here, the ATS record is 14-5. Besides, while the Bears have admittedly had some issues with higher quality opponents, they’ve blown out almost every average or worse team they’ve faced this season. They beat Indianapolis by 20, St. Louis by 17, Dallas by 16, Jacksonville by 38, Detroit by 6 (they had them shutout for 59 ½ minutes, before the Lions got a late backdoor cover 13-7), Carolina by 1 (the one true exception), Tennessee by 31, and then these Vikings by 18 two weeks ago. This should be another blowout win for the Bears.

Public lean: Chicago (60% range)

Sharps lean: MIN 21 CHI 10

Final thoughts: The other sharps lean I’m totally disagreeing with. I can’t see Chicago losing this football game.

Chicago Bears 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against spread: Chicago -3 (-110) 3 units

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Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: Week 14 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Cleveland Browns (4-8)

One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. It says that teams who finish 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS against the spread since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. That makes sense. Bad teams like that don’t deserve to be favorites of that much against anyone. The issue with it is a lot of the instances are situations where you don’t expect the team to be finish 6-10 or worse. For example, the Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland week 1 and failed to cover. They will be part of that six and six group when the season is over, but there was no way to know then that the Eagles would be this bad. Same thing with the Lions, who were 6 point favorites against the Rams week 1.

However, whenever you have a situation where a team that will almost definitely finish 6-10 or worse is favored by 6 or more, it’s an obvious fade situation. The Raiders were favored by 6 earlier this year against Jacksonville when they had a record of 1-4 and they won by just 3, failing to cover. Last week, the Jets, Bills, and Lions were all candidates and only the Bills covered. This week, the Browns are 4-8 and will almost definitely be 6-10 or worse at season’s end. Even if they win this game, they’ll be dogs in their final 3 games and will need to pull at least 2 upsets to finish 7-9, and they might not even win this game.

Speaking of the fact that the Browns will be dogs in their final 3 games, teams are 42-63 ATS as favorites of 6 or more before being dogs in their next 3+ games. That makes sense. Once again, as is the case with the six and six rule, bad teams should never be favored by 6 or more and teams that will be dogs in 3 straight are often bad teams.

We are getting line value with the Browns. Using the net points per drive method, this line should be Cleveland -11.5. Cleveland is 20th in net points per drive at -0.15, while Kansas City is dead last at -0.91. If you take the difference and multiply that by 11 (the amount of drives per game, on average) and then add 3 points for home field, you get that 11.5 number.

This is because the Browns have a much better points differential then their 4-8 record at -36. That’s a result of the fact that they really haven’t gotten blown out this season. Only 3 of their 8 losses have come by more than a touchdown and of those 2 losses, they were competitive in each. They lead the Giants 14-0 early, before losing by 14 and they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but had to settle for 5 field goals, while the Ravens had 3 touchdowns and a field goal in a 25-15 Ravens win.

However, they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out either. Of their 4 wins, only one came by more than 6 points and this line is 6.5. Almost all of their games have been close so this one should close as well, so I really like getting the points, even as bad as the Chiefs are, especially because of the six and six rule. That -11.5 line doesn’t make sense when you apply a human element to it, understand where it came from, and why it’s not appropriate in this situation. It also doesn’t hold up to DVOA, which is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. The Chiefs are dead last in that as well, 31st in weighted, but the Browns rank 26th and 24th in weighted, which doesn’t hold up to their 20th place rank in net points per drive.

This would be a bigger play if I knew what to expect with the Chiefs. They won last week just one day after the Jovan Belcher murder/suicide as big dogs. However, there’s no guarantee that will continue this week now that they’ve had a week to sit back and reflect. These types of things tend to go differently depending on the team. The Colts won as big dogs in the week after Chuck Pagano left for treatment, but then got blown out the following week against the Jets, before then going on an impressive run.

The Redskins, meanwhile, lost as big favorites immediately after the death of Sean Taylor, before going on an impressive run and improbably making the playoffs. There’s no way to know how the Chiefs will react this week. They might continue on this run or they might have a huge letdown game like the Colts did. Under normal circumstances, this would be a 4 or 5 unit pick, but these aren’t normal circumstances. Even still, it’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Cleveland (60% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 26 KC 8

Final thoughts: One of two heavy sharps leans this week I’m going to totally disagree with. Sharps have been terrible in the last few weeks anyway.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +245

Pick against spread: Kansas City +6.5 (-110) 3 units

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: Week 14 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4)

This is a really interesting game. Earlier this week, I wrote about some of the parity related things that happen every single year and how those could be used to help predict games the rest of the way. The Lions are by far the likeliest candidate to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Only the Saints and Lions are 2011 playoff teams with 5 or wins right now and the Saints would have to lose out to finish 5-11, highly unlikely. The Lions, however, stand at 4-8 and will only be favored in one more game the rest of the way so chalk gets them to 5-11 and fulfills the requirement.

The Packers, meanwhile, are the most likely candidate to be this year’s team that goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Keep in mind, that’s happened every year in at least the same decade, while the trend mentioned in the first paragraph has happened in every season except one in at least the last decade. The Packers are the only team who had a first round bye last year with 4 or more losses currently. The Packers also need to miss the playoffs for this to be the 18th straight year with 5 new playoff teams because there’s essentially 7 returning playoff teams already locked into playoff spots.

They will need to go 2-2 or worse over their final 4 games to miss the playoffs and a team like Tampa Bay, Dallas, or Minnesota will need to win out. Tampa Bay looks by far the most likely to do so as that would require just winning in New Orleans, not as daunting as it once was, and winning in Atlanta week 17, when they will likely be resting starters. The Packers will be dogs in just one of their final 4 games, at Chicago next week, so they’ll have to lose once as favorites if they are going to miss the playoffs.

All that being said, we can’t really use much of that to predict any outcome here, based off just that. If Detroit wins here, it would go a long way towards knocking Green Bay out of the playoffs, but that would mean they’d also have to lose in Arizona next week if they’re going to finish with 5 wins or fewer, which I guess could happen if they’re flat off a huge win in essentially their Super Bowl, but the Cardinals really, really suck.

Technically, I guess we can say that if we throw out the assumption that a 2011 playoff team will win 5 or fewer games this season, Detroit seems like the logical choice. That would be only the 2nd time in over a decade that’s happened, but history says it’s more likely that something like that happens than all 4 teams who had first round byes last year returning to the playoffs this year.

Green Bay could also easily lose week 17 in Minnesota anyway, so they don’t necessarily have to lose here to fulfill that requirement. Besides, if they did, it would make it much more likely they’d pull an upset next week as Rodgers is deadly as dogs off a loss. Besides, Detroit is having major issues closing games, so I don’t know I trust them to win anyway, especially in Green Bay.

This team has lost a ridiculous 4 of their 8 losses by 4 or fewer points and they are 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That could even out in the long run, as it typically does. Teams that lose a game by a touchdown or less win the following game 48% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. A perfect example is that Matt Stafford and the Lions were actually 5-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. I just don’t know if I trust them to straight up win here.

However, that doesn’t mean they can’t cover this 6.5 point spread though, in fact, it makes it more likely that they will. They haven’t really been blown out by anyone. None of their losses have come by more than 10 points and only 1 has come by more than 8 points. Because of this, their -15 points differential is much better than their 4-8 record. I don’t know if I trust them to win a huge game like this on the road, but they could definitely keep it close once again, much like they did the last time these two teams met.

Going off that points differential, the Lions actually rank 14th in net points per drive, actually only one spot lower than Green Bay. If we use net points per drive to compute real line, we get a line of Green Bay -3. Even though Green Bay ranks much better in DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like strength of schedule) than net points per drive, ranking 5th, I still feel like this line is too high.

Green Bay is an overrated team right now. The odds makers know they can inflate the line on them based on reputation and people will still bet them. It should come as no surprise that the Packers are getting pounded by the public. I love to fade the public, especially on heavy public leans, when it feels appropriate and this is one of those weeks.

The Packers are really not healthy right now. If they can get healthy by the playoffs, I admit they’ll be a very scary team, but right now, they’re just not the team they once were. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks have left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, might miss this one too. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who sucked last week in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews is expected out once again, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Matthews’ injury is the killer as they don’t have another pass rusher with him and Perry out. Charles Woodson could return this week, but if he does, he’s expected to be limited in his first game back after missing over a month.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out and Woodson will again be limited at best. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 currently healthy and playing near his 2010 level. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.7 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #12 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +6. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 6 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and these Lions, who lost by just 4 a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins. That’s why I say the Packers are overrated right now and why I think they have a good chance to miss the playoffs. They can definitely win here, but it will probably be another close game.

The trends are not in Green Bay’s favor either. Detroit is also dogs before and after being favorites coming off a loss, a situation teams are 52-22 ATS in since 2008. Teams tend to be extra focused for a tough opponent coming off an upset loss, knowing that there’s an easy game on the horizon. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs. Detroit is dogs here and will be favorites in Arizona next week, while Green Bay is favorites and will next be dogs in Chicago.

Going off of that, road dogs are 14-7 ATS before being road favorites since 2011, 16-8 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs. Finally, teams are 15-47 ATS as divisional home favorite before being divisional road dogs, 4-26 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. All of this is very, very hard to ignore. I won’t pick Detroit to pull the upset, but I’m very confident this will be a close game.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: DET 11 GB 7

Final thoughts: I’m taking the money line too. I don’t know exactly which team will win, but I love the value with the money line in a game I think will be a real tossup. All the trends say Detroit and who knows, maybe they’ll actually close out a close game this week. Even if they don’t, I love their chances of keeping it close.

Detroit Lions 30 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +250

Pick against spread: Detroit +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants: Week 14 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (5-7) at New York Giants (7-5)

Earlier this week, I outlined why the Redskins should be considered the favorites to win the NFC East. The Redskins, presumably, have the tiebreaker, by virtue of their better divisional record. They are a game back right now, but they are almost definitely going favored in each of their last four games, while the Giants will be favored in just two of their final 4.

If the Redskins can win just 3 of 4 (games against Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Dallas look very winnable), that will force the Giants to have to win at least 3 of 4 as well and with games against New Orleans, Baltimore, and Atlanta in 3 of their final 4, that’s going to be very tough. I’m hardly counting them out, but the Redskins should be considered the favorites.

That’s pretty crazy considering the Redskins would have basically been eliminated had they lost last week to the Giants. They would have been 3 games up, holding the tiebreaker (by virtue of sweeping the season series), with 4 games to go. That would have made Washington’s magic number for elimination 1, meaning the Redskins would have been eliminated unless they won out and the Giants lost out, highly unlikely. How did the Giants get from that point (favorites in a game which would have basically eliminated the Redskins) to this point or even how did they get from that awesome 6-2 start to this point?

Well, the easy answer is they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 28-40 in the second 8 games of the season. It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 90 touchdowns to 79 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

The Giants are actually favored here, one of two games they are expected to be favored in the rest of the way. However, that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win. In fact, they really struggle as home favorites, especially bigger home favorites like this and in the 2nd half of the season. Eli Manning is 5-15 ATS as home favorites of more than 3 since 2004 in week 9 or later.

The Saints, meanwhile, are in a great spot. Drew Brees is 8-3 ATS in his career with the Saints as dogs off a loss. He failed to cover in this situation last week, but the fact that he lost last week opens up another trend. Teams are 85-48 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008. That should help to combat the fact that Brees isn’t normally the same quarterback outside of his dome. Brees is 2-0 ATS in that spot since joining the Saints.

Besides, after arguably the worst performance of his NFL career, he’s going to want to bounce back. The great ones always do. On top of this, the Saints are dogs before being favorites, as they host Tampa Bay next week. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs, which the Giants will be as they pay a visit to the Falcons.

I considered this to be a pure 5-unit pick of the week, but I decided to make it a 4 unit co-pick of the week for several reasons. One, the Giants might have another one of those eff you games like they had against the Packers. They were favorites against the Packers, but played like dogs because the Packers were public dogs. The Saints are public dogs this week, something I hate betting on anyway, but it doesn’t have the same feel as the Packers game.

Not of lot of people believe in New Orleans right now and people generally feel the Giants will still win the NFC East. If anything, the Saints are going to have the eff you performance this week. Also, the real line for this game is Giants -8.5 using net points per drive differential and it holds up moderately well against DVOA. Still, the Saints should be the right side, both for the reasons I mentioned earlier and because the Giants basically have to lose the NFC East and miss the playoffs if we’re going to have an 18th straight year of 5 new playoff teams. There are essentially 7 returning playoff teams already locked into playoff spots this year.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

Sharps lean: NO 6 NYG 5

Final thoughts: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: New Orleans +4.5 (-110) 4 units

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: Week 14 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (4-8) at Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

Last week, I bet against the Colts because I felt they were an overrated team and the Lions were an underrated team. I felt the Colts were overrated because they’ve had a very easy schedule and they’ve actually had a -43 points differential despite their then 7-4 record. They’ve won just 1 game by more than a touchdown, but they’ve lost 3 by more than 20. The Lions were the exact opposite, as their points differential of -13 was much better than their then 4-7 record and they also had the much tougher schedule.

The Colts were 7-4, because of a 6-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out over time. That’s what Pythagorean Expectation is based on. Teams who win a game by a touchdown or less will win their next game just 52% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t feel, with a few exceptions, that certain teams are good or bad in close games. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have won close games so consistently in their career that they have to be exceptions and Matt Ryan might be on the verge of joining them, but I’m not ready to put the rookie Luck in that group.

Well what happened? The pick was working out pretty well for a while. The Lions led by 12 with about 3 minutes left. The Colts got one touchdown and they were able to get the ball back and score another one to pull off a miraculous comeback, winning 35-33 on the final play of the game and destroying what looked like at least a push (Detroit -5). The real line for that game, based on points per drive, was at Detroit -9 and the public action was still on Indianapolis. In spite of that, the line was climbing. Everything about it seemed like a trap line, but the Colts still busted it.

I’m still not really willing to admit that Luck is in that Manning/Brady group, but even if he is, even if he has some sort of special ability to win close games, I really like the Titans here as dogs of more than 4. There are other reasons why, which I’ll get into later, but at the very least, I don’t have to worry about any sort of Luck magic throwing this one off. The Colts have 3 wins by more than 4 points all season. One was in overtime, one was on the strength of a special teams touchdown (7 points), and the other one was against the Blaine Gabbert led Jaguars. Only that 7 point win against the Bills was a home game. They can win yet another close game and I can still win against the spread.

We are actually getting some line value with the Colts. I like to use net points per drive to compute real line. Net points per drive is offensive points per drive minus offensive points allowed per drive and it grades teams on a per drive basis. You can take the difference between the two teams’ net points per drives and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 3 points for home field advantage.

This suggests that the Colts should be 8 point favorites. While the Colts’ points differential is much worse than their record, the same can also be said about the Titans, though to a lesser extent. The Titans are 4-8, which isn’t great, but not as bad as their -111 points differential, which is the 4th worst in the league, only ahead of Kansas City, Jacksonville, and Oakland. The Titans have a whopping 5 losses by 21 or more this season, and only one win by more than a field goal. The Colts haven’t really been blowing teams out, but the Titans have been getting blown out by almost everyone. That’s one of the concerns I have with the Titans.

However, that 8 point line doesn’t hold up to DVOA. I like to look at DVOA to compare because it is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things, including strength of schedule. The Colts rank 28th in DVOA (27th in weighted) and the Titans rank 29th. This makes sense as the Colts are playing a last place schedule, while the Titans are playing a 2nd place schedule. The Colts have also yet to face Houston, who Tennessee has played twice.

The Colts are 23rd in net points per drive to Tennessee’s 29th, but it doesn’t look like that 8 point real line holds up against DVOA. In fact, since these teams are right next to each other in those rankings, the 5.5 point favorites the Colts actually are might even be too high. It’s interesting to note that the public is predictably pounding the Colts, but the line has dropped from -6 to -5.5 and is even at -5 in some places. Not only do I like to fade the public whenever I see it fit, as the public always loses money in the long run, this one looks like it has trap line written all over it. The odds makers want people to bet on the Colts, possibly because they also feel they’re an overrated team and you never really want to do what the odds makers want you to. There’s a reason they’re rich.

Aside from the line stuff, there are other reasons with the Titans are the play this week. When these teams played earlier this season, the Colts pulled the upset as road dogs in Tennessee, winning in overtime by 6 (one of their 3 wins by 4 or more that I mentioned earlier). Well, that actually helps the Titans this week. Teams are 51-25 ATS as road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites since 2002.

This is probably because it’s so tough to sweep a season series, especially when two teams have comparable talent levels, which is often the case between teams who alternate dogs/favorites depending on the home team in their two matchups. It might sound weird to say these teams have similar talents levels, but everything I mentioned earlier would suggest that they might be more similar talent wise than you’d think.

Meanwhile, the Titans are dogs before being favorites as they host the lowly Jets next week. Teams are 102-57 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons as teams tend to be extra focused as dogs with no distractions on the horizon. That trend gets even more powerful when the favorite in the matchup will next be dogs, as the Colts will be next week, when they go to Houston. Dogs are 114-57 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Going off that, divisional home favorites are 15-47 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002, including a ridiculous 4-26 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. This game simply means different things for these two teams. For the Colts, it’s a chance to catch their breath between a tough comeback and before heading to play the biggest game of their season in Houston. For the Titans, this is by far the biggest game of their season left and a big divisional revenge game. Besides, that 4-26 ATS trend is very, very hard to ignore. Add in that Indianapolis is overrated and that this may be a trap line and the Titans are one of my 3 co-picks of the week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (80% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 15 IND 11

Final thoughts: This line has dropped to -4.5 and -4 in most places. This has trap line written all over it. I’m glad I got this at +5.5. I can’t add any more units for that reason, but this might be my favorite play of the week.

Tennessee Titans 20 Indianapolis Colts 17 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee +5.5 (-110) 4 units

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: Week 14 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (9-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-9)

The Raiders actually gave a little bit of effort last week. They still lost at home to the previously 3-8 Browns in a game they trailed throughout, but that was sadly a big step up from where they were the week before. In their 3 games prior, they lost all 3 by 21 or more, which is actually incredibly rare. That’s only the 13th time that’s happened since 1989, which is why I love betting teams off back-to-back losses of 21 or more (36-17 ATS since 2002).

This week, the Raiders are actually in a really good spot. For one, divisional favorites of more than a touchdown are just 2-10 ATS this season, which I think speaks to the high level of parity in the NFL this season. The Broncos struggled and failed to cover the spread in a win in Kansas City two weeks ago in a very similar type game.

Meanwhile, teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Raiders host the Chiefs next week, a game they are expected to be favorites in. Going off that, divisional home dogs are 20-10 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 1989. The Raiders are also in their 2nd straight game as home dogs off a loss, a situation teams are 60-41 ATS in since 2002.

Speaking of that loss last week, as I mentioned, the Raiders were actually competitive. Teams that are on long losing streaks that almost broke through the week before actually cover at a high rate. Teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. All the trends say they should cover, but of course, all the trends said they would cover against Baltimore, New Orleans, and Cincinnati too and they got blown out.

This week, we’re actually getting line value with the Broncos. Using the net points per drive differential method of computing real line, this line should be Denver -13.5. The Broncos rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.62 the Raiders rank 31st in net points per drive at -0.90. If we take the difference between those two, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 3 points in the Raiders’ direction for home field advantage, we get around Denver -13.5. That line checks out with DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like schedule). The Broncos rank 2nd in both DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Raiders rank 31st and 32nd respectively in those two metrics.

However, unlike the Baltimore game, the New Orleans game, and the Cincinnati game, in which the Raiders showed no effort, this is a divisional matchup. In fact, it’s a home primetime game against not only their biggest rival, but by far the best team in the division. This is their Super Bowl. Just like the Eagles last week, they should give their best effort of the season and cover a large spread against a superior team.

Actually, where the Raiders are right now is very similar to where the Eagles were last week. The Eagles were atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 125-64, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. The Raiders were also atrocious over a 4 game stretch, getting outscored 167-77, and then were competitive as home dogs against a crappy team. Now, like the Eagles were last week, the Raiders are double digit divisional dogs in a game with all the trends on their side in a game that means much more for them than their opponent. The Broncos just want a win, while the Raiders are playing for pride.

I also like that the public likes the Broncos. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it makes sense to fade the public whenever it seems appropriate. It’s never really a bad thing to be on the same side as the odds makers. They know what they’re doing. However, like the Eagles last week, I can’t make a big play on the Raiders. They should be the right side though.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spr­ead: Oakland +10.5 (-110) 2 units

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Week 13 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks

Week 13 Results

ATS: 6-10 -10 units/$-1240

SU: 8-8

Upset Picks: 1-3 -$175

Over/Under: 1-1 -$10

Total: -$1425

Public Results ATS*: 6-10 -10 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 92-95-5 -6 units/-$2885

SU: 116-75-1

Upset Picks: 29-36 +$50

Over/Under: 9-8-1 +20

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: -$2715

Survivor: 10-3 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL, DEN, DET)

Public Results ATS*: 90-100-2 -11 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

The Final Quarter of the NFL Season

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

The NFL is a league filled with parity. Every year, there are certain examples of this parity that happens almost without fail. With 4 weeks left in the NFL season, we can use these to figure out which teams, if history is any indication, will struggle down the stretch. Note: I’m doing this probably in lieu of detailed power rankings.

1. Every year in at least the last decade, a team has gone from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs.

This is an easy one. The Colts, winners of 2 games last year, stand at 8-4 right now and in the weak AFC, they can pretty much clinch a playoff spot with 2 more wins. They have easy games against Tennessee and Kansas City, along with tougher games against Houston, in their final 4 games. They won’t need to pull any upsets to make the playoffs, and they might even be able to make the playoffs if they get upset once down the stretch, so there isn’t much we can learn from them. Washington, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota are candidates here and we can certainly have more than one of these teams make the playoffs, but Indianapolis should fulfill this “requirement.”

2. Every year in at least the last decade, with the exception of one, a team has gone from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer.

With the exception of 2, each one of last year’s 12 playoff teams have already won 6 games or more, so that eliminates a good chunk of the candidates. New Orleans at 5-7 is technically still a candidate, but they’d have to lose out, which makes them a long shot. Even if they can’t beat Tampa Bay in New Orleans or go to New York and beat the Giants or beat the Cowboys in Dallas, I’d be stunned if they lost to the Panthers at home in the Superdome week 17.

That leaves Detroit. Detroit sits at 4-8 and could definitely go 1-3 down the stretch. They have very tough games against Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago, all of which they will be dogs in, and only a trip to Arizona offers them an opportunity to be favorites. They’re really our only option, so this teaches us to basically fade them as small or medium sized dogs against Green Bay, Atlanta, and Chicago because history suggests they won’t pull any of those 3 upsets. If they do, definitely fade them as favorites in Arizona, because Arizona just might pull that upset, again, if history is any indication.

3. Every year in at least the last decade, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye.

Really the only candidate here is the Bears. The AFC byes will almost definitely be two of Houston, New England, Baltimore, and Denver, all returning playoff teams. The Falcons, another returning playoff team, have the other bye locked up, which leaves that 2nd NFC bye as the one that will likely be taken by a non-playoff team from a year ago. The 49ers, are 8-3-1, hold the spot right now, a 4th returning playoff team, but the Bears are at 8-4 and if they can beat Green Bay in Chicago, a game in which they’ll probably be favored, they could definitely run the table and go 12-4. In that case, they would only need San Francisco to lose one of two very losable games in Seattle or New England, where they will probably be dogs, to take the 2nd bye.

Seattle is the other candidate. If they can beat San Francisco in Seattle, where they have already knocked down some of the tougher teams in the NFL this season (New England, Green Bay), they have a very good chance to run the table and get to 11-5, barring another snafu as road favorites in Buffalo. Their other two games at are home for Arizona and St. Louis and I would be stunned if they lost either of those. At 11-5, they’d still need some help getting into the playoffs, in the form of a Chicago loss and another San Francisco loss, but the possibility is still open. Potential suspensions to Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman could kill their chances though.

What does all this mean? Well, I don’t think I’m going to pick against the Bears as small or medium favorites the rest of the way and I certainly won’t pick against them as dogs. I think I’m taking them against Green Bay pretty much no matter what. I probably won’t pick against Seattle the rest of the way, just to be safe (though Browner’s and Sherman’s potential suspensions could really make me rethink that promise, as would the juicy possibility of getting Buffalo +3.5 at home for the Seahawks). I’ll also pick against San Francisco in both New England and Seattle.

4. Every year in at least the last decade, one team goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs

Here’s another reason I like the Bears to satisfy situation #3. The 49ers, Patriots, and Ravens are all pretty much locked into a playoff spot. None of those teams has more than 3 losses. The Packers at 8-4 are the only candidate that still remotely has a chance of satisfying this one. They’d have to go 2-2 or worse to do so. Losing in Chicago would definitely not be a shock, but they’ll probably be favorites in their other 3 games.

I can’t see them losing at home to Tennessee, nor can I see them losing at home to Detroit, especially since doing so would put situation 2 at risk of not happening, so the only real possibility would be a week 17 road loss in Minnesota. Minnesota played them tough this week, so it is a possibility in Minneapolis, where they are 5-1 this year, especially since Percy Harvin will probably be back for that one.

Who would take the Packers’ playoff spot? Well, there’s a trio of 6-6 teams right now, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, and Dallas. Tampa Bay is the most talented of the bunch by far, but they’d have to win out and that would mean wins in New Orleans and Atlanta. A win in Atlanta would not be farfetched as that will be week 17 and the Falcons will almost definitely be resting starters then (they might clinch home field in the NFC by week 15) and I think they can win in New Orleans. Basically what this means is I’m going against the Packers against the Bears and Vikings the rest of the way and taking Tampa Bay as dogs and small or medium favorites the rest of the way.

5. Every year in the last 17 years, there have been 5 new playoff teams.

This is another reason I think the Packers will miss the playoffs. This has happened for 17 straight years. Right now, the Colts, Seahawks, and Bears look like locks to be 3 of those 5. If the Buccaneers can take the Packers’ spot, that’s 4, with the Packers joining the Saints, Lions, and either the Steelers or Bengals on the outside looking in. That leaves one spot.

The only plausible way this can happen for an 18th straight year is if the Redskins win the NFC East and someone takes the Packers’ spot. 6 of the 8 divisions in the NFL will definitely be won by the team that won it last year. The Steelers or Bengals, two returning playoff teams, are taking one of the two wild cards in the AFC. That only leaves 5 spots for new playoff teams and if this is going to happen for the 18th straight year, they will all have to be filled by new playoff teams, including the Giants’ spot atop the NFC East.

I know the Cowboys are right in that NFC East race as well, but I just think the Redskins are a much better team. After all, they smoked the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving. These two teams do play week 17 in Washington so I guess you can say that whichever teams win week 17 is the favorite between these two, but I think the Redskins will win that one and the division.

The Giants are a much better team in the first half of the season than the second. In the first 8 games of the season, they are 53-19 and in the 2nd half, they are 28-40. The Giants have tough games against New Orleans, Baltimore, and Atlanta left, before an easy week 17 game against the Eagles. That week 17 game is their only easy win and they’ll have to win at least 2 games I think to win this division. 8-8 won’t cut it.

The Redskins stand at 6-6 and have a much easier final quarter schedule, playing the Eagles and Browns in 2 of their next 3 games, sandwiched in between a winnable game at home against the Ravens and that week 17 matchup against the Cowboys. All the Redskins have to do is win the 3 games they’ll be favored in (Browns, Eagles, and Cowboys) and have the Giants win just the 2 games they’ll be favored in (Saints, Eagles) and the Redskins will win the division at 9-7, by virtue of the 2nd tiebreaker, divisional record (5-1 to Giants’ 4-2). Chalk wins the Redskins the division. So what does this mean for picking purposes, basically I’m going fade the Giants unless they’re big dogs down the stretch and I’m going to take the Redskins unless they’re big favorites. I would do the same for the Cowboys, but I don’t trust them.

Teams to bet

1. Chicago

2. Seattle

3. Washington

4. Tampa Bay

Teams to fade

1. Green Bay

2. NY Giants

3. San Francisco

4. Detroit

Final playoff predictions

NFC

1. Atlanta 14-2 (lose to Buccaneers week 17 with rested starters)

2. Chicago 12-4 (win out)

3. San Francisco 11-4-1 (lose in either New England or Seattle)

4. Washington 9-7 (lose to Ravens, win other 3)

5. Seattle 10-6 (lose to 49ers or in Buffalo)

6. Tampa Bay 10-6 (win out)

AFC

1. Houston 14-2

2. New England 13-3

3. Denver 13-3

4. Baltimore 12-4

5. Pittsburgh 10-6

6. Indianapolis 9-7

Just for mock draft/power rankings purposes, these would be my playoff predictions in that scenario.

AFC Wild Card

3. Broncos over 6. Colts

5. Steelers over 4. Ravens

NFC Wild Card

3. 49ers over 6. Buccaneers

4. Redskins over 5. Seahawks

AFC Divisional

1. Texans over Steelers

2. Patriots over Broncos

NFC Divisional

1. Falcons over 4. Redskins

3. 49ers over 2. Bears

AFC Championship

2. Patriots over 1. Texans

3. 49ers over 1. Falcons

Super Bowl

2. Patriots over 3. 49ers

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