2012 Week 15 NFL Picks

Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, Commanders

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely than not that Robert Griffin plays. Normally, when a quarterback is a game time decision, he plays.

It’s only when a quarterback is ruled out in the week prior that he doesn’t play and this is such a huge game for the Redskins if they want to make the playoffs, I can’t see him sitting out. The fact that lines are already starting to trickle in is a good sign, especially since Washington is favored by 1 (they were favored by 2.5 a week ago). That suggests that the odds makers are fairly sure Griffin will play.

I’m going to make this pick as if I’m fairly sure Griffin will play, for that reason. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are just -13 in points differential and they rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.03. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. These teams are basically equal and if you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cleveland should be favored by those 2.5 points.

However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA. Washington ranks 10th in DVOA, which takes things into account things like strength of schedule, and 11th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th in regular and 20th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland is also in a bad spot as home dogs off a win as home favorites, a situation teams are 52-72 ATS in since 1989, the only trend that is relevant in this one.

Furthermore, I just don’t want to bet against Griffin right now and I don’t think the Browns are ready to win straight up against a team like the Redskins yet. They’ve hung with some good teams, but they need to win straight up to cover here. It’s only a small play because of the uncertainty of Griffin and it would rank near the bottom in any confidence pools, but the Redskins are the pick.

Public lean: ?

Final update: Griffin was surprisingly ruled out today and Kirk Cousins will start tomorrow. This line is now Cleveland -2. I like betting on good teams starting backup quarterbacks as they tend to give 110% to compensate and opponents tend to overlook them. Remember the Steelers beating the Ravens with Charlie Batch?

The Browns also have bigger things to worry about as they have trips to Denver and Pittsburgh next on the agenda. Favorites are 35-72 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown dogs and 7-20 ATS before being touchdown dogs in two straight. Teams are also 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Redskins go to Philadelphia next week, when they should have Griffin back. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008.

It’d be a bigger play, but I feel like the 4.5 point line movement from last week (the Redskins were -2.5) is not enough to compensate for Griffin’s loss, especially considering the Browns looked pretty impressive last week, blowing out the Chiefs. Griffin might be the league’s most valuable player outside of Brady and Manning this year and the Redskins supporting cast isn’t very good. It’d be a big play at +4 or more, but not at +2. The Redskins should be the right side though.

Final update II: Now at +4, I like the Redskins a lot more.

Washington Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-110) 3 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)

The Buccaneers lost last week as big home favorites against the Eagles, essentially eliminating themselves from playoff contention, but they are still better than their record. They haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points, but 4 of their 6 wins have come by double digits. As a result, they are 11th in net points per drive at 0.25. They are also 14th in DVOA and 15th in weighted DVOA.

The Saints, meanwhile, rank 19th in net points per drive at -0.13. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to New Orleans’ side for home field, you get that the Buccaneers should be 1.5 point favorites here. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Saints rank 22nd, as well as 21st in weighted.

The Buccaneers may have lost last week, but they were in a really bad spot. They were in a sandwich game in between an emotional loss to the Broncos and this big divisional matchup. However, this week, the Saints are the one in that spot. Last week, they lost as dogs in New York against the Giants and next week, they have to go to Dallas, where they will be dogs. In between, they have this game, in which they are favored. Teams are 59-85 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Teams are 15-18 ATS in this spot as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is why I didn’t take the Eagles last week. I thought even if the Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles, they could still cover on pure talent. However, the Saints are favorites of less than a touchdown here this week and teams are 44-67 ATS in that spot. They might not overlook the Buccaneers, though, because it’s a divisional game sandwiched in between two non-divisional games. Teams are 12-17 ATS in that spot since 2008, 22-26 ATS since 2002, which isn’t much of a trend.

However, that trend does feed into one another. Teams are 32-55 ATS as favorites off back-to-back-to-back losses as dogs before being dogs since 1989. This is an extreme sandwich situation. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are dogs before being favorites, as they host the Rams next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs are 116-59 ATS since 2008. It’s also worth noting that teams are 30-17 ATS as dogs off a close (1-3 points) loss as touchdown favorites. The Buccaneers overlooked the Eagles last week in preparation for this game and they’ll be extra focused this week.

This would be a bigger play if this wasn’t a divisional matchup and if the Saints weren’t so good at home. They are 12-3 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons, but only 3-3 ATS there this year without Sean Payton. I think we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot. It’s a small play on the Buccaneers, though I’m definitely glad to be getting more than a field goal.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-110) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Chicago Bears  (8-5)

I’ve called the Packers overrated before. This was because they were really banged up with injuries and as a result, they weren’t really playing as well as people thought they are. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, has also missed time. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who has sucked in the last two weeks in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews has also missed time, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and leaving them with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Charles Woodson has also missed time.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out for the year and Woodson has also missed time. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 healthy and playing near his 2010 level this year. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.8 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #11 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +7. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 7 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and the Lions twice. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins.

The Packers rank just 12th in net points per drive at 0.17, as a result. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 9th at 0.40. If you take the difference between those two figures, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that line should be Chicago -5. That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as the Bears rank 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Packers rank 5th and 7th respectively. Nothing in there says the Bears should be 3 point home dogs.

We’re getting significant line value with the Bears, especially since this line has moved significantly in the past week. This line was Chicago -1 last week and now it’s at Green Bay -3. In spite of this, the public is all over the Packers and I love fading the public, especially on heavy public leans and especially on heavy public leans after big line movements. Chicago being home dogs has put them in a good spot trends wise. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Going off that, home dogs are 55-32 ATS before being road favorites since 2002. The Bears go to Arizona next week.

The reason this line shifted 4 points in the past week is because the Bears lost in Minnesota. People assume that was because of the Bears’ injuries (more on those later) and that they can’t possibly compete with the Packers this week because of that. Well, I’m not so shocked the Bears lost in Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-1 there, including a win over the 49ers. Besides, the Bears’ defense wasn’t why they lost. Their defense really only gave up one good scoring drive. The other two touchdowns the Vikings scored were either on a pick six or directly off a long touchdown return. Their offense was why they lost, not their defense. Their offense has generally been solid this season, so I see that as a bit of a fluke.

All this being said, these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise. Clay Matthews is expected to return for the Packers, as is TJ Lang. Jordy Nelson and Charles Woodson are still out, so they’re not 100% yet, but I’ve said they could be very dangerous if they can be healthy and Matthews’ return is huge, even if he’ll be limited in his snap count. He’s really their only good pass rusher and I wouldn’t have given them much chance to take advantage of the Bears’ weak offensive line without him.

The Bears, meanwhile, are missing not just Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings, but they will also be without Henry Melton in this one. They didn’t seem to miss Urlacher and Jennings against Minnesota, but the Packers are a much better offense and Melton’s absence will also be huge. It’s also worth noting that the Bears have had a lot of issues beating teams of the Packers’ caliber this year. They are 1-5 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 4, including 1-5 SU. In other situations, they are 5-1-1 ATS and 7-0 SU.

At the end of the day, I think the Bears are the right side, but I’m not that confident in it. However, I love fading heavy public leans, especially after a big line shift for no real reason. Besides, every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. In order for that to happen, either the Seahawks or Bears have to win out and the Packers and 49ers have to lose once. This is the game the Packers are most likely to lose and like Seahawks/49ers next week, it will kill birds with one stone, if that is to happen once again. It’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

Public lean: Green Bay (80% range)

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3 (-110) 2 units

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Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens: Week 15 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4)

Before losing to the Steelers at home a few weeks ago, the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight home wins, dating back to 2010. Given that, it’s kind of weird to see them as home dogs here. It’s also kind of funny to see how far this team has fallen in the last two weeks thanks to two losses. I had been saying they weren’t as good as their record all season, but the way the public has soured on this team in just 2 weeks is a little bit of an overreaction.

It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people have called them overrated so many times that we’ve forgotten they’re not a bad team. This line was Denver -1.5 a week ago and two weeks ago, they probably would have been favored. In spite of this, the public is pounding the Broncos. I love fading the public because the public always loses money in the long run.

Good teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Ravens are no exception. In fact, on the rare occasions they’ve lost two in a row in the Joe Flacco/John Harbaugh era, they’ve almost always covered in the following game. That’s happened just 4 times since the start of the 2008 season and they’ve covered in the following game at a record of 3-1 ATS. It’s obviously a very small sample size, but it’s important to note that this team has only twice lost 3 in a row since 2008 and never since weeks 4-6 of the 2009 season.

They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites as they are expected to be favored when the Giants come to town next week. Teams are 105-62 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons, including 17-6 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. That being said, when we go back to 2002 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 52-47 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites, which isn’t significant at all. There’s also a decent chance that, depending on what happens this week, they will actually be home dogs next week for a good Giants team. The early lines have them as favorites, but that might not hold up. While home dogs tend to cover before being home favorites, they are just 31-46 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again.

That’s kind of a theme for this game, uncertainty. I don’t really have a strong feel for this game as a result. The Ravens did win 16 in a row at home at one point, but they weren’t exactly blowing teams out and they weren’t exactly playing a tough schedule. This is demonstrated by the fact that the Ravens were just 7-8-1 ATS in those 16 games and they never once were home dogs like they are here.

They’re also in a very bad spot here off of a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-46 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 8-14 ATS as home dogs, as the Ravens are here. We are getting a tiny bit of line value with the Broncos, as the real line based off net points per drive is Denver -1, which holds up to DVOA. However, that’s pretty insignificant. I don’t have a real feel for this game, but gun to my head, the Broncos should be the right side, as long as the line doesn’t go above 3. If we get more than a field goal with the Ravens, I might have to take them. That’s how close this is. Put this last in any confidence pools.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans

Indianapolis Colts (9-4) at Houston Texans (11-2)

The Texans were calling last week’s game in New England their biggest game in franchise history and rightfully so. This is a very young franchise that has played just 2 playoff games in its history and going to New England as an 11-1 #1 seed in week 14 on Monday Night Football is almost as big as it gets. The Texans got destroyed, losing 42-14, which had to be demoralizing. Teams tend to struggle off a Monday Night Football blowout anyway. It’s just not enough time to regroup. Teams are 23-38 ATS since 2002 off a Monday Night Football of 17+, including 2-11 ATS in a divisional game off a road loss.

Meanwhile, for the Colts, this is their biggest game of the Andrew Luck era. The Texans are still the class of the AFC South and still are tied for the league’s best record at 11-2. Because of the Texans’ loss last week, the Colts now control their own destiny for the AFC South. Granted, to do that, they’d have to beat the Texans twice in three games, which seems very improbable, but don’t try to tell them that. This is a gigantic game for them. They’ll be extra focused as they don’t have anything to worry about next week, with only a trip to Kansas City on the schedule.

The Colts have the major trends advantage. I already mentioned the teams off a MNF blowout one, but there are more. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons. Going of that, double digits dogs, like the Colts are here, are 46-29 ATS since 2002 before being favorites, including 14-7 ATS as divisional double digit dogs before being non-divisional favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 39-16 ATS. Also since 1989, teams are 16-7 ATS as double digit dogs before being away favorites, which the Colts will be in Kansas City next week.

All that being said, I still feel the Colts are overrated. Of their 9 wins, only 1 has come by more than a touchdown. Meanwhile, 3 of their 4 losses have come by 20 or more. As a result, they have a -37 points differential that is significantly worse than their 9-4 record. For reference, the 5-8 Dolphins are at -36. They’ve also played a joke schedule. They are playing a last place schedule in the weaker of the two conferences. They play in arguably the worst division in football and they have yet to play Houston, the only other competent team in their division, thanks to a scheduling quirk. They have had to face the tough NFC North, but also the crappy AFC East, which is probably the 2nd worst division in the NFL, so that kind of balances out.

As a result of this, they rank 22nd in net points per drive at -0.30 and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which take things like schedule into account. They rank 28th and 26th respectively in those two statistics. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 6th in net points per drive at 0.55. In DVOA, they are also worse than they are in net points per drive. After all, they haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule either. They rank 8th in both.

We can safely say that any real line computed from net points per drive will hold up to DVOA. If we take the difference between these two teams’ net points per drives and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team) and add 2.5 points for home field advantage, we get a real line of Houston -12. That means we have line value with the Texans, before even taking into account that Houston has had the slightly tougher schedule, playing a 1st place schedule, instead of a last place schedule.

In spite of this, the public is still on the Colts, which makes them a public underdog. I love fading the public every chance I get, but I especially love fading them when they back a dog. The public always loses money in the long run. Despite the fact that the Colts are publicly backed, this line, which looks weird if you only consider records, is getting even bigger. It opened around 8 or 8.5 and now it’s at 10. That’s reverse line action and is normally the sign of a trap line. Trap lines are much more common when the public is on a favorite, but in theory it can happen when the public is on a dog.

I think the odds makers have known the Colts are overrated for a long time. They’re not stupid. They know all the net points per drive stuff and all this stuff I mention. That’s why they were +9.5 in New England, where they got blown out as public dogs. That’s why they opened -3 for the Bills at home and then dropped down to -2.5 even though the public was all over the Colts. They easily could have lost that game if not for a special teams touchdown and even a 7 point home win over the Bills is nothing to brag about.

The following week, we had a similar situation to the one here, with the Colts being a public dog and the line moving in the opposite direction as they opened as 5 point dogs against a 4-win Detroit team, but ended up being 7 point dogs when the lines closed, in spite of all the public action on the Colts. And they were down 12 in that game to the crappy Lions, before mounting an improbable comeback. Last week, they opened as 5.5 home favorites against the crappy Titans. That went down to 4.5 before the end of the week even though the Colts were the most heavily backed public team of the week and the Colts did not cover, beating the crappy Titans by just 4 and even trailing by multiple scores early in the game.

All the trends say the Colts are the right side, but I just can’t take them. They’ve only beaten one good team all season, the Packers in that ChuckStrong game early in the season and that was at home. They’ve gotten blown out by the only two good teams they’ve faced on the road, losing by 20 in Chicago and 35 in New England.

They really struggle on the road in general, with only 3 road wins against the crappy Jaguars, the crappy Lions, after a huge comeback, and the crappy Titans, in overtime by 6. Meanwhile, they’ve lost by 20 in Chicago, 35 in New England, even the freaking Jets blew them out by 26. I really don’t think they can hang with the Texans on the road. Even with all the trends in their favor, this looks like a blowout waiting to happen and the odds makers actions support that. They’re certainly expecting a blowout and they’re not a bad group of people to have agree with you. I can’t put a big play on the Texans, but they should be the right side.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

Houston Texans 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against spread: Houston -10 (-110) 2 units

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Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams: Week 15 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)

The Vikings won last week as home dogs against the Bears, but I’m still not sure about them. Christian Ponder once again had a terrible game, completing 11 of 17 for 91 yards and an interception. In his last 7 games, he’s 107 of 191 (56.0%) for 970 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Adrian Peterson is awesome, but you can’t win in the NFL without at least decent quarterback play.

Illustrating this, they are 2-4 this year when Ponder completes 60% or fewer of his passes and 4-2 when Adrian Peterson rushes for 5.0 yards per carry or less. Against Green Bay, Peterson went off for 210 yards and they still lost 23-14. Last week, they beat the Bears by 7, but not because of their offense. Their defense returned one Jay Cutler interception for a touchdown and another one to the goal line, setting the Vikings up with an easy touchdown. Their offense only really led one good drive all game and Peterson did almost all of the work. Unless Ponder can start playing at least serviceably, they’re going to struggle to consistently lead good drives.

That win last week pushed the Vikings at 6-1 SU at home, as opposed to 1-5 SU on the road, and that one home loss was against Tampa Bay on a Thursday Night, when weird things happen. At home, they are 5-2 ATS and they are 1-5 ATS on the road. Maybe it shouldn’t be so surprising that they upset the Bears last week, especially in kind of a fluky way. They’re a good home team. Winning on the road is another issue. That same Bears team blew them out on the road 2 weeks prior.

They’re also in a bad spot as non-divisional road dogs off a win as divisional home dogs. Teams are 33-52 ATS in this spot since 1989. After such a huge divisional win last week, they could easily be flat for St. Louis. Going off that, the Vikings are in the middle of a very tough stretch right now. Since week 10, they’ve faced the Lions, the Bears, the Packers, and the Bears. Now they have the Rams before finishing up with the Texans and the Packers. They’ve played 4 straight games against divisional foes and then after this they have an 11-2 Houston squad and the division leading Packers. Think they might be in a bit of a breather game situation against the Rams?

Speaking of those Rams, they’re actually playing some nice football lately. Since their bye, they’ve covered in 4 of 5, with that one non-cover coming against the Jets, in a game that the Jets had all the trends on their side. They tied the 49ers, beat the 49ers, and got road wins as dogs in Buffalo and Arizona as dogs. Improved health on their offensive line is to thank and this week they get even healthier as Danny Amendola is expected to return.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings using the net points per drive method as that says this line should be a pick em. The Vikings are 20th in net points per drive at -0.14, while the Rams are 25th at -0.40. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and factor in 2.5 points for home field, we get that this line should be a true pick em. However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA, which has the Vikings just one spot better than the Rams, who are 19th, and it certainly doesn’t hold up to weighted DVOA, which weights more heavily recent games. The Rams rank 19th in that one as well, but the Vikings are 23rd.

Finally, I also really like that the public is all over Minnesota off of that win against the Bears. I love fading the public on heavy leans, especially heavy leans on dogs. The public always loses money in the long run. This is a breather game for a Vikings team that struggles to move the ball aerially and to play on the road against an underrated and finally healthy Rams team. I like the Rams for a significant play. They’re also my survivor pick in a bad week for survivor picks.

Public lean: Minnesota (70% range)

St. Louis Rams 20 Minnesota Vikings 12 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA)

Pick against spread: St. Louis -2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: Week 15 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (11-2)

Every year in the Tom Coughlin era, the Giants have a 2nd half slide. Since he took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 29-40 in the second 8 games of the season. This year has been no different as they started 6-2, but thanks to a 2-3 stretch, they are now 8-5, not bad, but not as good as it once looked.

It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 94 touchdowns to 81 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

They blew out the Saints last week, but I wouldn’t be so sure that everything is fine, especially given their 2nd half history. They blew out the Packers 3 weeks ago and then responded by losing as favorites in Washington the next week. That loss actually pushed their record off a 2nd half win by 14 or more to 3-6 SU since 2004. Their huge win over the Saints was a little fluky too. If not for over 400 return yards, the first time a team has done that since 2000, they could have lost. After all, they were outgained and the rest of the teams’ stats looked fairly similar.

What that win did do was get people believing in them again. Most of the guys on ESPN are picking them to win this one and the Giants, as mere 1 point dogs against an 11-2 team, are a very heavy public lean. Not only do I love fading the public (especially when they back a dog and especially when they back a dog this heavily), Giants fans will tell you, it’s not a good thing that people believe in this team. That tends to be when they disappoint and they’re deadly when people are doubting them.

This week they have to go to Atlanta, who isn’t as good as their record, but they’re still a good team. It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people called them overrated so many times that people don’t think they’re even a good team. They’re not 11-2 good, but I have trouble believing that they deserve to be mere 1 point home favorites against anyone. Maybe New England, but no one else. The real line is at Atlanta -1, based on the net points per drive method, which holds up to DVOA, but that still seems a little ridiculous. They’re also dogs and there have only been 2 instances in the last 23 years of a team being home dogs with 2 or fewer losses in week 13 or later.

Another big reason this line seems ridiculous to me is because of Matt Ryan’s dominance at home. He’s a ridiculous 31-5 at home in his career. At times I’ve wondered if they have become a better road team than home team this season, as all 3 of their wins by more than 10 points have come on the road, and because they’ve struggled to beat inferior teams like Arizona, Oakland, Carolina, and Dallas at home. But they are still 6-0 SU at home this season and even though they haven’t always covered the spread at home this year, Matt Ryan is still 23-12 ATS as home in his career.

If not for their 2008-2011 history, I’d be concerned that, in spite of their 6-0 home record, they’d lose this one because they haven’t really played anyone at home and they’ve barely beaten some bad teams. However, because of their history at home, I like them to win this game. They’re especially good as non-divisional home favorites, going 13-6 ATS (18-2 SU) as non-divisional home favorites in the Matt Ryan era.

Another situation they’ve been really good in since 2008, when Mike Smith and Matt Ryan came in, is off a loss. Well coached teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Falcons are just that. In fact, if Mike Smith’s name were anything other than Mike Smith, he’d probably be talked about as one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL. He’s a ridiculous 17-4 ATS off a loss.

I’ve been down on Atlanta a lot this year, but I love them this week. The Giants are not a good 2nd half team. They’re not good when people believe in them and I love betting against such a heavy public lean. Meanwhile, this is a statement game for an Atlanta team that always gets it done at home and always bounces back well off a loss.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Atlanta Falcons 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: Atlanta -1 (-110) 3 units

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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans

New York Jets (6-7) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)

The Titans are 4-9, which isn’t very good at all, but if you can believe it, they’re even worse than their record. Of their 9 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more and only one of their 4 wins have come by more than a field goal. As a result, they rank 29th in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA. The Jets aren’t as good as their 6-7 record either, as they are 24th in net points per drive and DVOA and 25th in weighted DVOA, but the Titans don’t deserve to be favorites here.

Using the net points per drive method, the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites here. The Titans are at -0.76 in points per drive and the Jets are at -0.38. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 to Tennessee’s side for home field, you get that the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites, rather than the Titans being that.

The Jets also have the trends on their side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in 2011 and they host the Chargers next week. That trend becomes 116-59 ATS since 2008 when their opponent will next be dogs and the Titans have a much bigger game in Green Bay next week. When all 3 games (current, next, and opponent’s next) are non-divisional, that trend is 35-15 ATS since 2008.

Speaking of that Green Bay game, teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being double digit dogs, which they should be in Green Bay next week. Going off that, the Titans are in the sandwich situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. For good teams, this is a huge breather spot. For bad teams, well they don’t deserve to be favorites and the Titans fall into that latter category. It’s also worth noting that the Jets are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) as dogs or favorites of 3 or less and 0-6 SU (2-4 ATS) as dogs of more than 3. They’re beating up on mediocre and crappy teams this season and I expect that to continue this week.

Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m going to put all 4 on the money line. I was burned doing this a few weeks ago because the Buccaneers lost by 1 as 1.5 point dogs and I took the money line instead. However, that was just the 8th time in the last 23 years that a 1.5 point or 1 point dog had lost a game by exactly 1 point. Going into that game, since 1989, there had been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams lost by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. I still say that was the smart move after some thought and I’m going to do that again here. It’s not worth the extra 20 cents on the dollar for something that will hurt me about 2% of the time, however terrible I feel when it does.

Public lean: Tennessee (50% range)

New York Jets 20 Tennessee Titans 16 Upset Pick +110 4 units

Pick against spread: NY Jets +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8)

I’ve mentioned the six and six trend here several times. Teams are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more if they finish with 6 wins or fewer. The Dolphins might be a candidate for that here as 7.5 point favorites over the Jaguars. They are currently 5-8 and need to go 2-1 in their final 3 games to finish 7-9 or better. They’re favored in 2 of their final 3 games, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win both of them and I highly doubt they win in New England week 17. If they slip up once in their next 2 games, maybe against an improved Buffalo squad next week in Miami, they’d be an obvious fit for the six and six trend.

Going off of that, it’s worth mentioning that teams who have 5 wins or fewer are 6-12 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more in week 15 or later, including 2-7 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more, as the Dolphins are here. It doesn’t really seem like the Dolphins should be favored by this much. We are actually getting some line value with the Dolphins as the real line for this game is -9. The Dolphins rank 21st in net points per drive at -0.18, while the Jaguars rank 30th at -0.79. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), you get Miami -9 and that holds up to DVOA, as Miami ranks 20th in regular and 23rd in weighted, while the Jaguars rank 31st in both.

However, the Jaguars are playing better football under Chad Henne. He’s certainly inconsistent, but even on his bad days, he’s not much worse, if any worse, than Blaine Gabbert was and on his good days he’s almost beaten the Texans in Houston and won as home dogs against the Titans. That’s certainly something that could play a factor here.

It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins have been a much better road team than home team over the past 5 years, going 12-25 ATS at home and 25-14 ATS on the road. It’s unclear how much that means since they’re 2-3 ATS at home this year and 3-4 ATS on the road, but it’s still worth noting. They’ve also failed to cover their last 11 instance as home dogs of more than 3, including twice this year.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are 5-1 ATS on the road and before a game in Buffalo a few weeks ago, their biggest road loss was by 9 in Green Bay. If they lose by 7 or less here, they cover. There’s too much uncertainty here for me to make this a huge play, but the Jaguars should be the right side in this one. If Henne weren’t so inconsistent, it’d be 4 or 5 units, but I’m still taking the Jaguars for 3.

Public lean: Miami (60% range)

Miami Dolphins 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8)

The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but on the road they are 3-4 ATS. That might not sound bad, until we take a closer look.

Two of those covers were in their 2nd straight road game and teams generally cover as road dogs off a road loss. The Seahawks are an even worse 16-31 ATS on the road directly after a home game since 2005, a situation they’re in this week. The other cover was a 7 point loss in San Francisco as 7.5 point dogs, which should have been a 9 point loss and non-cover, but Jim Harbaugh strangely declined a safety. They still struggled mightily offensively, scoring just 6 points and it was on a Thursday Night, when weird stuff happens.

The point remains, the Seahawks are not a good road team. They are 1-3 ATS on the road off a home game this year, with that one cover being the San Francisco game and more importantly, they are 0-3 ATS and SU as road favorites this year. Since 2005, they are 6-12 ATS as road favorites. Russell Wilson completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception at home, but 64.1% for an average of 6.8 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the road.

At first glance, we are getting line value with Seattle. The Seahawks rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.61, while the Bills rank 26th at -0.41. If you take the difference and add multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 2.5 points to Buffalo’s side for home field, you get that Seattle should be favorites of 8.5.

That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as Seattle rank 2nd in both regular and weighted and Buffalo ranks 21st in regular and 17th in weighted (more on that later). Both teams are noticeably better in DVOA than net points per drive, though Buffalo slightly more so. As well as that, Seattle’s consistent road struggles need to be taken into account. On the road, they get outscored by 6 points per game and at home they outscore teams by 7 points per game over the past 7 years. Instead of using 2.5 for home field, we should use 6.5. If we do that, the real line is at -4.5 and that doesn’t take into account that Buffalo is playing solid football right now and has a decent weighted DVOA.

Since the bye, they lost by 12 against Houston in Houston, but should have covered the 10.5 point spread if not for a missed easy field goal. The next week, they lost by 6 in New England as 11 point dogs and were actually driving for a potential game winning score late. They then won against Miami at home and lost by a special teams touchdown in Indianapolis. They followed that up by blowing out the Jaguars and losing to an also underrated Rams team at home in a game they led most of the way.

Ever since Mario Williams had that minor wrist surgery during the bye, he’s been playing so much better and they’ve consequently held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 21. As a result, they have been competitive in all 6 games. Seattle, meanwhile, is without stud cornerback Brandon Browner with a suspension. They obviously didn’t miss him against Arizona because their quarterbacks are so terrible, but Ryan Fitzpatrick can take advantage of holes in a secondary if there are some. The line doesn’t take that into account, I believe.

The Seahawks are also potentially in a bad spot as teams are 33-63 ATS as non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 2-9 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being home divisional dogs. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 3-17 ATS. The Panthers lost in Kansas City in this spot a few weeks ago. The early line for next week has the Seahawks as 1 point home dogs for the 49ers next week, which would count. They may end up being favorites when all is said and done, but you can’t deny that they might overlook “crappy,” unfamiliar, non-conference Buffalo with that game next on the schedule.

We’re also getting a major overreaction line here as the Seahawks were just -3 a week ago and now they’re -6. I’m not surprised they blew out the Cardinals at home. They’re a good home team. Did we forget they lost in Miami two weeks ago despite having a 22-3 ATS trend on their side (road favorites off a bye)? This has given us line value and, in spite of this, the public is pounding Seattle and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, the Seahawks are in a potentially very bad spot.

It’s worth noting that this game is in Toronto, not Buffalo, where the Bills play one home game per year. That may have an impact, but they’ve never really played noticeably worse there than at home, granted in a small sample size. Toronto isn’t that far away and there’s lots of Bills fans there. I’m also worried about getting in the way of Seattle right now, especially since one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye every season and the only way that happens this year is if Seattle or Chicago win out. However, +6 is just too good to pass up. I’m very grateful for that huge line movement. It gives us enough room that, even if Seattle wins, the Bills could very well cover.

Public lean: Seattle (70% range)

Seattle Seahawks 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +6 (-110) 3 units

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