2012 Week 15 NFL Picks

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jaguars

Detroit Lions (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9)

One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. This says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse struggle to cover as favorites of 6 or more, going 23-64 ATS since 2002. The Lions are currently 4-9 and need to win out to finish better than 6-10 and even if they win this week, there’s no way they’ll win out against Atlanta and Chicago. Not only are they 6 point favorites here, they are 6 point favorites on the road. I know the Cardinals aren’t very good, but you kind of have to be not very good to be dogs of 6 or more against a team that’s going to finish 6-10 or worse, so this definitely applies in this situation, even after Arizona lost 58-0 last week.

In fact, the fact that the Cardinals lost 58-0 last week makes it more likely they’ll cover this week. Teams are undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in this situation. Teams are 41-21 ATS since 2002 off a loss of 35+. They’re definitely undervalued as the line has moved from -3 to -6.5 in the past week, which is a complete overreaction. I know the Cardinals suck, but didn’t we know that last week? A 3.5 point line movement is ridiculous. No one deserves to be 6.5 point home dogs to the Lions.

Further illustrating that the Cardinals don’t deserve to be 6.5 point home dogs here, we’re getting significant line value with them. The Lions actually rank 14th in net points per drive at 0.09 because they’ve had a lot of close losses, while the Cardinals rank 28th at -0.43, even after their huge loss last week. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per game per team) and move the line in Arizona’s favor 2.5 points for home field, we get that Detroit should be -3, which is where this line was last week, which is more reasonable. After all, of the Lions 4 wins, only one came by more than 4 points.

So we’ve established they’re undervalued, let’s move on to overlooked. The Lions are coming off a close loss as big dogs against the division rival Packers and next have to face the Falcons and Bears. Why would they care about the crappy Cardinals, especially off that huge loss? There are a bunch of trends corresponding to this situation.

Teams are 20-32 ATS as non-divisional favorites off a loss by 7 or less as divisional dogs of 6+ since 1989. Teams are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ off of being road dogs of 6+ since 1989. Teams are 70-106 ATS as road favorite before being home dogs since 1989. Teams are 5-16 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs in 2+ straight since 1989. Arizona is also in the sandwich situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. This is a huge breather spot for them in a tough stretch of their schedule.

So we’ve established they’re undervalued and will be overlooked. How about embarrassed? Well, they’ll definitely be embarrassed off of that loss. It’s just common sense and that does affect you on the football field. That aforementioned 41-21 ATS trend demonstrates this. These guys are professionals playing for jobs and money and respect and whatever. This game reminds me of the Jets covering as 9 point home dogs against Houston after getting shutout at home by the 49ers the week before in a 34-0 loss. We’re also getting a chance to fade a very heavy public lean in Detroit and the public always loses money in the long run.

All the trends say Arizona is the right side and they’re in an unbelievably good spot. Ordinarily, I would make Arizona a 5 unit pick of the week or even a 6 unit co-pick of the year (only used once this year, New England +3 at Baltimore, a 30-29 New England loss and cover). On paper, I love the Cardinals so much. However, I just can’t trust Arizona’s quarterbacks for that much. It also kind of worries me that the Lions have already covered once as 6 point road favorites in Jacksonville earlier this year, but I think the Cardinals are a better team than the Blaine Gabbert led Jaguars (they have a better defense and almost beat Atlanta a few weeks ago) and they’re in a much better spot. It’s a 4 unit co-pick of the week on Arizona.

Public lean: Detroit (90% range)

Detroit Lions 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chargers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)

I picked the Chargers to win at home against the Ravens and Bengals respectively in week 12 and 13 because, among other reasons, they always start playing really well at this point in the season, even when their season has been lost. Well, they couldn’t quite close the deal in either of those games, though they made it close and probably should have beaten the Ravens, but Ray Rice converted an improbable (and maybe poorly called) 4th and 29. Because of this, I stayed away from them in Pittsburgh last week, even though all the trends said they’d cover. Well, what did they do? They not only covered as 7.5 point dogs, but dominated the game, even leading 27-3 at one point.

Finally, it appears they’ve gone on their late season run and I can say with as much confidence as I can about a team that’s burned me before this season that the Chargers have a good chance to now win out with games against the Panthers, Jets, and Raiders. They should continue that momentum from last week. They are now 22-10 ATS in week 14 or later, including 7-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons, even though they’ve had nothing to play for. At home, they are 12-5 ATS.

We’re also getting line value with the Chargers. They rank 18th in net points per drive at -0.08, while the Panthers rank 23rd at -0.38. If you take the difference and multiply that by 11 and add 2.5 points for home field, you get a real line of San Diego -6. In spite of that, they are not a publicly backed favorite as the public is on Carolina. I hate publicly backed dogs, so that’s another reason to take San Diego. They’re also in a bad spot as non-conference road dogs of 3 or more are 10-20 ATS since 1989 off a divisional win as home dogs of 3 or more.

This would be a bigger play on the Chargers if not for a few things. One, I’ve obviously been burned with them before. It’s hard to trust them. Maybe now that they got their one big win as big dogs they’ll go back to the way they were before and struggle to win in a new dynamic in a game they’re supposed to win or at least keep close.

The second reason is that a good trend is on Carolina’s side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and they host the Raiders next week. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and the Chargers go to New York to play the Jets next week. When all 3 games (current, next, opponent’s next) are non-divisional, that trend is 35-15 ATS since 2008.

Third, while net points per drive says we’re getting line value with the Chargers, DVOA paints a different picture. The Panthers rank 16th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Chargers rank 23rd and 22nd respectively. DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like schedule. This makes sense as the Panthers are in the much tougher NFC (AFC teams are 6-12 ATS against NFC teams as favorites this season) and also are in one of the tougher divisions, the NFC South, while the Chargers are in the weak AFC West. The AFC West is 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS against the NFC South this year, 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS excluding the Broncos. Still, the Chargers are the pick.

Public lean: Carolina (60% range)

San Diego Chargers 27 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 2 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

After the Steelers’ loss last week, I was expecting them to be dogs here, especially after the Cowboys big win as dogs last week. There was no early line last week because Ben Roethlisberger’s status was still in doubt so I didn’t know really what to expect in terms of this line. I was expecting them to be dogs, though dogs of less than 3, but I still was expecting to take them for a big play for a variety of reasons.

The first is that the Cowboys have really struggled as home favorites since they opened the new Cowboy Stadium in 2009, going 9-18 ATS. They’ve already lost to the Redskins and Bears in this situation this year and barely beat the Buccaneers and the crappy Eagles and Browns. Meanwhile, the Steelers are very good in the Mike Tomlin era off a loss as favorites, as well coached teams generally do. They are 13-7 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as dogs.

Meanwhile, teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011 and the Steelers host the Bengals next week and will be favored. The Cowboys also suck after week 13 in the Tony Romo era, going 11-20 ATS in week 14 or later. They won in this spot last week, but they were playing purely with emotion after what happened the day before with Josh Brent and Jerry Brown. Now that they’ve had a week for it to settle in, they could really struggle like the Colts did after they beat the Packers and like the Chiefs did last week. The Steelers are also healthier than they were last week with LaMarr Woodley returning and David DeCastro making his season debut. The Cowboys could be missing top receiver Dez Bryant.

However, it appears the Steelers are favored by 1.5, which changes things. The Cowboys are now home dogs, a situation they are actually 2-1 ATS in since 2009. The Steelers are 5-15 ATS as non-divisional road dogs in the Mike Tomlin era. The Cowboys are also now the ones who are dogs before being favorites as they are dogs here, but they are expected to be home favorites for the Saints next week. The line value has also shifted in their favor because the real line is a pick em, based on the net points per drive method. That does hold up to DVOA, as well. Finally, the Steelers are publicly backed (though not a huge public lean) and the public always loses money in the long run.

I’m still taking the Steelers. They are still good off a loss as favorites, even as favorites. The Cowboys still struggle to cover at home. They may be good as home dogs, but it’s a limited sample size. They also still struggle in December and they could be in a bad spot now that the Josh Brent and Jerry Brown situation has settled in. They may be missing Dez Bryant as well.

The Steelers, on the other hand, might be healthier than they’ve been all season. This will be the first time all season that Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley will play in the same game. Ike Taylor may be out, which hurts, but this is still the healthiest they’ve been all season sadly. The real line doesn’t take that into account, so we still may be getting line value with the Steelers. While the Steelers struggle as non-divisional road dogs, they are 1-1 ATS in that situation off a loss. This is a must win off a loss, so I can’t see them overlooking the Cowboys like they might in another situation. Teams are 99-62 ATS since 2002 as non-conference favorites before being divisional favorites.

Finally, while the Steelers aren’t dogs, the line is still below 3 and since I would have loved the Steelers as dogs, it doesn’t make sense to just take the Cowboys because the Steelers are now favorites of less than 3. It’s just not a significant play anymore. This reminds me of Giants/Cowboys a few weeks ago, when I wanted to take the Giants for a big play, expecting them to be dogs, but they ended up being road favorites. I still took them anyway for a small play and they covered.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (60% range)

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110) 2 units

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10)

I picked the Chiefs as 6.5 point dogs last week in Cleveland because they were in such a good spot, but I made sure not to make it a huge play because I wasn’t sure how they’d respond once they had a week for the Jovan Belcher situation to settle in. In hindsight, I probably should have avoided the game entirely like I did the week before. However, 2 weeks after the incident, I don’t think that situation is relevant to purely picking games. Obviously, it’s still a relevant situation, but I don’t think it will affect them in any possible significant negative or positive ways on the field.

That’s good because I really like the Chiefs again this week. Their loss last week in Cleveland actually opened up a good situation for them this week. Road dogs are 86-50 ATS off a road loss since 2008. The Raiders, on the other hand, are in a bad situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS in what I call the sandwich situation since 2008, favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. For good teams, this game is a breather. For bad teams, well, they shouldn’t be favored. Bad teams have issues covering as favorites, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

Further proving that, the Raiders, who haven’t had a winning season since the 2002 season, are 9-28 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2003 season, their first in a long line of non-winning seasons. Meanwhile, teams are 16-26 ATS as favorites off 4 straight losses as dogs since 1989. The real line for this game, using the net points per drive method, is Oakland -3, which is what this line is (and it holds up to DVOA), but the fact remains: bad teams cannot be trusted to consistently cover.

One more trend works in Kansas City’s favor. Teams are 52-25 ATS as divisional road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites. The Chiefs lost as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago, but teams rarely sweep the season series in a divisional matchup when the talent level is equal and I think it is between these two teams. The Chiefs loss as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago also points back to what I was just talking about: that bad teams cannot be counted on to consistently cover as favorites.

I’ve been hesitant to bet heavily on the Chiefs in the past when all the trends were on their side because they’re such a mistake prone team. However, the Raiders are equally mistake prone. They really have no business being favored. The Chiefs can make a bunch of mistakes and still win this game because the Raiders probably will do the same thing too. I also like that the Raiders are a heavy public lean. The public always loses money in the long run. It’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Oakland (70% range)

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 4 units

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San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3)

Normally, I like betting against big line movements because they tend to be overreactions based off 1 week. Last week, this line was -3 and now it’s -5, which is a pretty significant line movement. However, that’s reasonable in this case. Teams normally carry the momentum of a big MNF win into the next week. Teams are 28-11 ATS off a MNF win of 21+ since 2002.

Besides, all the line movement did was move the line to where it should be. These are the top 2 teams in the NFL, in my opinion, but everything suggests that the Patriots, right now, are the league’s best team. They are +198 in points differential. The 49ers are next closest at +132. The Patriots rank 1st in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA and all 3 by a fairly good margin.

The Patriots are at 1.17 in net points per drive, while the 49ers, who are 2nd, are at 0.95. If you take the difference between those, multiply by 11 (the amount of average drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field (I’ve started using 2.5 instead of 3 because home field advantage has been slightly less significant over the past 5-10 years), you get that New England should be 5 point favorites, which is right where this line is.

DVOA supports this at least and may even suggest this line should be higher. While the Patriots are clear #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA, the 49ers are 4th in both. There’s nothing wrong with this line movement, especially considering how good teams are off a MNF blowout. It’s also good that the Patriots still aren’t a huge public lean or anything because the 49ers are certainly a respectable team in the public’s eye. I hate picking heavy public leans.

I really don’t want to bet against the Patriots right now anyway. The Patriots are not a smart team to bet against after week 9. In the last 3 seasons between weeks 10 and 17, they are 21-0, outscoring opponents by an average of 20 points per game, with the average final score being 38-18. Even taking the spread into account, they are 14-7 ATS.

Going off of that, Tom Brady is deadly at home in December. The last time he lost a December home game was 2002, his 2nd season in the league and not so coincidentally, the only season in his career as a starter in which he didn’t make the playoffs. That’s his only career December home loss. In fact, in his career, he has a record of 25-2 at home between weeks 13 and 17.

The only two losses were that aforementioned 2002 loss to the Jets and a 2005 loss to the Dolphins, which was actually in January. The fact that it was in January may or may not matter, but the fact remains, when the temperature gets cold, he’s always gotten red hot. If you add in home playoff games, that record grows to 37-6. It’s supposed to snow for this game and the 49ers haven’t played in snow in the Jim Harbaugh era.

They are playing especially well lately, on both sides of the ball, thanks to the addition of Aqib Talib and emergence of Alfonzo Dennard at cornerback. This has allowed Kyle Arrington to move to the slot and Devin McCourty to move to safety, where they’re better fits. They’re allowing just 18.3 points per game since adding Talib. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 57.8% of their passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over those 4 games. They can run the football (7th in the league in rushing yards) and they’re at least decent defensively. They’re so much more complete than they have been in recent years.

The 49ers are in a good spot because they are dogs and the early lines for next week says that they will be favorites in Seattle. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. However, that early line is only -1 and they could easily not be favorites given how Seattle is playing and how the Patriots are playing right now.

If they are dogs, that actually puts them in a bad spot this week. Teams are 44-69 ATS as non-divisional road dogs before being divisional road dogs since 2002. They’re not going to overlook the Patriots or anything, but after this game they actually have a game that’s probably more important. They might be a little bit less focused in the week prior for this game than the Patriots, who have nothing to worry about until the playoffs as they finish up with Jacksonville and Miami.

The Patriots will be extra focused and they are in a great spot this week. Favorites are 33-17 ATS before being double digit road favorites since 2002 and the Patriots are projected early to be 14 point favorites in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, teams are 100-56 ATS since 1989 before being double digit favorites in their next two games and they will probably be double digit favorites at home for Miami week 17 as well. It’s a significant play on the Patriots.

Public lean: New England (60% range)

New England Patriots 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: New England -5 (-110) 3 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bengals, Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)

After the Eagles’ 31-6 loss in Washington week 11, I assumed the Eagles had quit. They were losers of 6 straight, including 4 or more by 13 or more. It was Andy Reid’s first 6 game losing streak of his career and a team that had always gotten better as the season wore on and always played well when their backs were against the wall was no longer doing that. I picked them against Washington because all the trends said they should cover the spread, but they got blown out. News broke that Andy Reid was hesitant to bench Michael Vick for Nick Foles earlier in the year for fear that most of the veterans would quit on the team and it looked like, after Foles’ first career start, that had happened.

I was hesitant to bet heavily against the Eagles the following week against Carolina because I felt it was such an overreaction line and because I thought maybe the Eagles would give a damn on national TV as home dogs against a 2 win Panthers team. I even picked them the following week for a small play against the Cowboys because all the trends said so and because I felt that they’d once again give a damn in a nationally televised game as big underdogs against a division rival, but I refused to take them last week in a non-televised game in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers, who they shouldn’t really care about. I knew there was a strong chance they would go back to not caring, though I didn’t make a big play on Tampa Bay either.

The Eagles not only covered the 7.5 point spread in Tampa Bay, but beat the formerly 6-6 Buccaneers, a team who hasn’t lost by more than 8 points all season, who should be better than their record. With the exception of Nick Foles first NFL start, the Eagles are actually playing legitimately decent football right now. That loss to Washington is excusable now as it was just Foles’ first NFL start. In 3 games since, he’s 70 of 105 (66.7%) for 751 yards (7.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He’s faced the 16th, 25th, and 30th ranked defense over those 3 games, but that’s still impressive.

Bryce Brown is running better than LeSean McCoy had all year and some of the young players like him and Foles are playing really hard now that they’re getting a chance and veterans who didn’t give a damn like Jason Babin have been let go or have been benched or gotten injured. Also let go was defensive line coach Jim Washburn and not so coincidentally, they had one of their best defensive games of the season last week. Not only are they no longer unbettable, but they might be underrated right now. If Foles keeps playing like this, Andy Reid might keep his job.

The Eagles are still irrelevant enough for the Bengals to potentially overlook them, which is a good thing for the Eagles. No one is really talking about the Eagles positively; after all, that was their first win in 2 months, but they should be. This line hasn’t shifted at all in the last week and the Bengals are still 4.5 point road favorites. The net points per drive method of computing real line says this line should actually be -7, but, remember, the Eagles were complete garbage for at least 6 weeks in a row.

As I mentioned, the Bengals will probably overlook the Eagles. After this game, they have to go to Pittsburgh and then home for the Ravens. Why would they care about a 4-9 non-conference opponent? If they lose week 16, they’re basically out of the playoffs almost no matter what and vice versa they can also lose this game and make the playoffs if they win in Pittsburgh next week.  Here’s a trend that puts that into numbers. Non-conference favorites are 32-63 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 4-15 ATS as road non-conference favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, teams are 12-31 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are in a good spot. Teams are 31-19 ATS off a close (1-3 points) road win as non-divisional touchdown dogs since 1989, including 19-9 ATS as dogs and 10-4 ATS as home dogs. I guess the momentum of a big win carries over so long as they are still dogs and the win was non-divisional (for the opposite of this, the Steelers were completely flat last week as favorites off a close road divisional win as touchdown dogs).

Normally I like to take favorites on Thursday nights as favorites. Favorites tend to cover as favorites tend to be more veteran teams and more prepared for the short week. I’m not taking the Bengals for two reasons. One, they’re on the road, which cancels that out. Two, while they are favorites, they aren’t exactly a veteran team. Andy Dalton is a 2nd year quarterback and I think it’s risky to take a 2nd year quarterback as 4.5 point road favorites on a short week, even against a rookie like Nick Foles.

He could be really unprepared in his first Thursday game and it’s not like he’s done well in primetime games so far in his career. They were blown out by the Ravens 44-13 week 1 on Monday Night football and then lost at home 24-17 to the Steelers on Sunday Night football a few weeks later. Andy Dalton is a combined 36 of 65 for 326, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks in those 2 games, though he wasn’t exactly facing friendly defenses. Finally, I also like that we’re getting a chance to fade the public with the Eagles as the Bengals are a fairly significant public lean. The public always loses money in the long run.

This would be a bigger play on the Eagles if it weren’t for a few things. One, Andy Dalton has been very good against non-playoff teams in his short career. He’s 10-4 (8-4-2 ATS) against teams with a losing record. He was a perfect 9-0 against non-playoff teams last year and this year I count he’s 6-3. However, the 4.5 point spread leaves enough of a window to play with if the Bengals do end up winning. Two, I’ve been really bad at Thursday Night games this year. It’s possible that you just can’t handicap them using traditional methods. It’s always risky taking a rookie on a Thursday night too, even at home as 4.5 point home dogs against a 2nd year quarterback who has never played on a Thursday.

Three, the Eagles are playing a Thursday Night game 3 weeks after a Monday Night game, which means they will have played 4 games in 17 days. It might not be a huge difference as the Bengals will have played 4 in 18, but the Ravens almost lost at home to the Browns in this spot earlier this year and the Seahawks really struggled to get things going offensively in San Francisco and shouldn’t have covered the 7.5 point spread in this spot earlier this year (the game Harbaugh declined the safety in). I also like the under, especially with two young quarterbacks. The under is 74-55 on Thursday Nights, including 9-3 this year if you exclude Thanksgiving.

Public lean: Cincinnati (70% range)

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +4.5 (-110) 3 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

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