2012 Week 16 NFL Picks

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Panthers, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (5-9)

One of my favorite trends is the six and six trend, which says that teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. So far this year, teams that are currently 5-9 or worse are 2-5 ATS as favorites of 6 or more this season. The Eagles failed to cover week 1 as 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland. The Lions failed to cover as 6 point home favorites against the Rams week 1, then again as 7 point home favorites against the Colts a few weeks back, and then once again in Arizona last week as 7 point road favorites last week. The Raiders failed to cover as home favorites of 6 against the Jaguars earlier this year. The Bills and Browns covered as 6 point home favorites against the Jaguars and Browns respectively recently.

I didn’t go against the Eagles week 1 because there was really no way to know they’d be this bad. I went against the Lions week 1, but for different reasons. I went against the Raiders even that early in the year because they were 1-4 at the time. I went against the Lions last week in Arizona, but not against them at home against Indianapolis because the line was -4.5 when I took it. I went against both the Bills and Browns seeing them as obvious six and six candidates, but that didn’t work out.

It doesn’t always work out, but that’s a pretty powerful trend and it’s definitely in play here. The Panthers are at 5-9 and they are not just 6 point favorites, but 8.5 point favorites, just the 4th time since 1989 that a 5 or fewer win team has been favored by this much this late in the season since 1989 (1-1-1 ATS in the previous 3 instances). Unless the Panthers can win here (likely) and in New Orleans next week (unlikely), they’re an obvious six and six candidate.

They may also be caught looking forward to that New Orleans game next week, which is pretty much their Super Bowl. They probably won’t get up for crappy Oakland, an unfamiliar non-conference opponent. Non-conference favorites are 34-63 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002. Oakland has a more important game next week in San Diego, a divisional rival, but they’re less likely to not get up because they are dogs here. Non-conference dogs are 71-88 ATS before being divisional dogs (including 45-52 ATS before being divisional road dogs), which isn’t that bad.

This is a significant play, but there are some reasons why it’s not a bigger play. The Panthers aren’t an ordinary 5-9 team. Because they’ve just lost 2 games by more than 6 points, they are 21st in net points per drive at -0.20. They’re even better in DVOA, ranking 13th in regular and 11th in weighted and they are playing really solid football of late, winning 3 of 4, only losing to the Chiefs the day after the Jovan Belcher incident. If you take the difference between their net points per drive and the Raiders’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that this line is right where it should be at 8.5, before even taking DVOA into account.

The 2nd reason is I’ve been burned a lot with the Raiders as they’ve covered a lot of games in situations they should have covered. They do have a tendency to not show up on occasion and here on the East Coast, where West Coast teams tend to struggle at 1 PM (the Raiders are 1-3 ATS there this year), in between two divisional games, that might happen. However, this is just too many points and it’s worth noting that the public is all over the Panthers and they always lose money in the long run. Worst case scenario, I like the Raiders’ chances of a backdoor cover.

Public lean: Carolina (80% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 11 OAK 5

Final thoughts: No change.

Carolina Panthers 24 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +8.5 (-110) 3 units

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St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Rams

St. Louis Rams (6-7-1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

The Buccaneers got destroyed in New Orleans last week, losing 41-0. I generally like taking teams off a blowout loss. Teams in this situation tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed. The most recent case of this was the Cardinals’ blowing out the Lions as huge home dogs last week after that 52-0 loss in Arizona the week before.

However, I only like doing this when the team is a dog. Here as a favorite, it’s a different dynamic for the Buccaneers. They’re supposed to bounce back and win. They’re not going to be overlooked and they certainly aren’t undervalued, especially as publicly backed favorites and anyone who reads these picks frequently knows I love to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run.

The Buccaneers certainly may be embarrassed (though you’d think they would have been embarrassed last week after losing at home to the lowly Eagles, but that didn’t work out), but it’s not enough for me to take them solely for that reason. Since 2002, dogs are 63-33 ATS off a 31+ loss, while favorites are just 15-13 ATS.

Given that, I actually like the Rams this week. They also lost last week, though not in as embarrassing a fashion. However, as a result, this line didn’t move in either direction despite the Buccaneers’ huge loss. I’m not too worried by the Rams’ loss. They are now 0-2 ATS this year as favorites, but they remain a pristine 9-3 ATS as dogs, as they are here.

At first glance, we are getting line value with the Buccaneers. They rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.02, while the Rams rank 26th at -0.43. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Tampa Bay should be 7 point favorites. However, the Buccaneers rank 21st in regular and weighted DVOA, while the Rams rank 19th and 18th respectively, which pretty much defeats all that line value.

The Buccaneers are also likely to overlook them with a big divisional matchup up next. Teams are 59-93 ATS before being touchdown divisional dogs since 2008 and the Buccaneers go to Atlanta next week. The Rams have an equally big game next week in Seattle, but they’re less likely to overlook the Buccaneers as dogs.

Favorites are 13-29 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown divisional dogs, while dogs are 45-64 ATS. Going back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 37-63 ATS as favorites and 91-127 ATS as dogs. Neither one is good, but I prefer the dog, especially as good as the Rams have been as dogs this season. The Buccaneers also tend to be very streaky and right now they are definitely streaking in the wrong direction. It’s also possible they might have just quit as they did late last season, though that’s unlikely under disciplinarian 1st year Head Coach Greg Schiano. It’s not a significant play though.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 8 TB 4

Final thoughts: No change.

St. Louis Rams 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3 (-110) 2 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bengals, Steelers

Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

Apparently the roof is falling in Pittsburgh. They’ve gone from favored by 4.5 to favored by 3 (passing two key numbers) and the public is still on Cincinnati. Why? Because they lost in overtime in Dallas in a game that was meaningless for them because they still control their own destiny? Because they lost another game as non-divisional road favorites (5-16 ATS under Mike Tomlin, which has generally been an overall successful tenure)?

While they’ve generally struggled outside of the division as road favorites, they always seem to win these divisional games. They’re 52-33 ATS in the division since 2000, including 19-7 ATS against these Bengals. Speaking of these Bengals, they’ve had a lot of issues against playoff caliber opponents. Andy Dalton was 0-8 against playoff teams last year and he’s just 2-4 against playoff contending teams this season. In all other games over the past 2 seasons, he’s 15-2.

In those 14 games, Dalton is a combined 291 of 498 (58.4%) for 3217 yards (6.5 YPA), 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. In the other 17 games, he’s 331 of 532 (62.2%) for 3751 yards (6.5 YPA), 28 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. He’s never beaten the Ravens and Steelers and he’s been terrible in those 6 games, going 108 of 208 (51.9%) for 1236 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s never even covered in those 6 games.

We are getting line value with the Bengals, as they rank 7th in net points per drive at 0.49, while the Steelers rank 13th at 0.10. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cincinnati should actually be favored by 2. That holds up to DVOA, in which the Bengals rank 12th in regular and 7th in weighted, while the Steelers rank 17th in regular and 15th in weighted.

However, it’s worth noting that the Steelers are probably healthier now than they’ve been all year, even with Ike Taylor out. LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Ben Roethlisberger are all healthy at the time same for the first time all season. That was the case last week, but they just didn’t seem to care about that game nearly as much as Dallas. This week, I’m expecting one of their best performances of the year.

Teams do tend to struggle off a road overtime loss. If you exclude road dogs (because road dogs tend to cover off a road loss, in general), teams are 21-47 ATS off a road overtime loss since 2002, including 11-24 ATS as home favorites. However, at the end of the day, I’d have to see Andy Dalton beat a quality opponent in a big game to believe it. The Steelers are underrated and the Bengals are a public dog, and I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run, especially public dogs. Besides, at the end of the day, I trust Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to win an important game much more than I trust the Bengals and as long as I’m getting field goal protection, it’s a significant play.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 17 PIT 10

Final thoughts: Even though it’s not a heavy lean, it’s worth noting it’s at -4 in the Supercontest. I like Pittsburgh a lot at -3. I’ll believe Andy Dalton can beat a quality team in a big game when I see it.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3 (-110) 3 units

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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)

The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and that’s it. They got blown out in Chicago, New York, New England and last week, to a lesser extent, in Houston. Meanwhile, they have just 1 win by more than a touchdown, winning by 17 in Jacksonville. They’ve played close games with the likes of Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Cleveland.

As a result, they rank much worse in net points per drive than their record would suggest and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which takes the Colts’ cupcake schedule into account. They rank 24th in net points per game at -0.32. In DVOA, they are 28th and 26th in weighted DVOA. The Chiefs rank dead last in everything and have a net points per drive of -0.97, but we’re still getting line value with them. If you take the difference between their net points per drive and the Colts’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 to the Chiefs’ side for home field, you get that this line should be Indianapolis -4.5, before even taking into account that the Colts are even worse in DVOA than net points per drive.

This makes sense. This line is -7 and as bad as the Chiefs are, the Colts have only beaten one team by more than a touchdown on that was on Thursday Night, when weird things tend to happen. Recently, the spread has really caught up to the Colts. After starting out 6-3 ATS, they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games, including a big loss in New England and near losses to the Lions and the Titans. The Colts’ two only covers in that stretch were that comeback win against the Lions and a home game against the Bills, which they won by 7 on a return touchdown.

Besides, this is an obvious sandwich situation for the Colts. They just lost to the Texans and have to play them again next week. They’re also basically locked into the 5 seed in the AFC. Why would they get up for the crappy Chiefs? Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs again. They’ll see this as an easy breather game. Teams are 23-39 ATS in that spot in a non-divisional game in between two divisional games. Going off that, teams are 27-47 ATS as road favorites of 3 or more before being home dogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 5-13 ATS in a non-divisional game before being a divisional game.

Ugh, when I was watching the Chiefs not manage a single first down in the first half against the league’s worst defense last week, I decided not to pick them for a significant play to cover another game the rest of the way. Brady Quinn is just too terrible, especially missing Dwayne Bowe, his only good receiver. However, when this line moved from +6 to +7, I talked myself into taking them for a significant play.

This is just not a good spot at all for an overrated Colts team and the public is still all over them (I love fading heavy public leans). And besides, whenever I make teams unbettable and refuse to pick them for a significant play even in a great situation, they seem to cover the following week. Anyone can cover on any given Sunday in the NFL (that’s the whole point of the spread). Brady Quinn is 2-0 ATS in his last two home games and the Chiefs are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games. The Colts, however, are my survivor pick this week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (90% range)

Sharps lean: IND 13 KC 5

Final thoughts: Worth noting this is at +6.5 in LV Hilton. I wouldn’t make it a significant play at +6.5, but getting the full touchdown is too good to pass on. We also have reverse line movement as this has moved from +7 to +6, which is good to see because it means sharps in general are on the Chiefs, but I’m not budging from 3 units at +7. I need the full touchdown and I don’t want to put anything more on the Chiefs. This is the one 3+ unit pick I’m nervous about.

Indianapolis Colts 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7 (-110) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints

New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However, after two straight wins, they are at 8-6 and in control of their own destiny, which means that once again, they’ll have a chance to choke this December, starting with this game against the Saints.

I’m only half kidding when I say this. The Cowboys are not good as front runners. That’s why they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites and why they always choke late in December. Here, they are home favorites and of course it’s also December. Tony Romo is 12-20 ATS in week 14 or later in his career, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites. They were able pull off two upsets to get themselves back into the playoff race, but now that they’re home favorites and something is actually expected of them as they control their own destiny for a playoff spot 2 weeks later, they probably won’t get it done.

Speaking of that win last week, they might be a little overconfident off of it. Teams are 13-29 ATS since 1989 as home favorites off a home win of 1-6 points as dogs. It’s always important to remember where teams were the week before and not overreact to one game. The Cowboys certainly didn’t play great against the Steelers, who are now 5-16 ATS as non-divisional road favorites under Mike Tomlin (including losses in Oakland and Tennessee this year). The Steelers also probably weren’t taking that game that seriously as they still control their own destiny for a playoff spot with a loss. Plus, here’s an interesting trend, teams are 20-41 ATS off a win against the Steelers since 2002.

The Cowboys might also have one eye on next week. I know the Cowboys have to beat both the Saints and the Redskins, so they won’t completely overlook the Saints here, but which game do you think they’ll be more focused for, a home game against a 6-8 team or a road rematch against a divisional rival who dominated them at home a few weeks ago? For the Saints, this is their Super Bowl, a chance to play spoiler. All they have left is a home game against the Panthers. There’s a trend for that. Dogs before being favorites are 108-67 ATS since 2011, including 118-61 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Besides, as the Saints showed last week with their blowout win over the Buccaneers, they’re not to be overlooked. In fact, numbers say the Saints are a better team than the Cowboys. The Saints rank 12th in net points per drive at 0.14, while the Cowboys rank 18th at -0.06, while this line says these two teams are equal, because 2.5 points is standard for home field, not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles.

If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that this should be a pick em, again not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles. DVOA backs this up as the Saints rank 15th in DVOA and 14th in weighted DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 16th and 17th respectively. We’re getting points with the better team in the better situation. It’s a big play on the Saints.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Sharps lean: NO 19 DAL 15

Final thoughts: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Buffalo Bills (5-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)

The Bills got blown out last week, losing 50-17 “at home” in Toronto to the Seahawks. As a result, they rank 28th in points per drive at -0.58. The Dolphins, on the other hand, rank 17th at -0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Miami should be favored here by 8.5, rather than the 4.5 they actually are.

However, DVOA refutes this. I like to use DVOA to determine whether or not that net points per drive based figure is valid because it takes into account strength of schedule and things like that. Miami ranks 18th, while Buffalo ranks 22nd, which is a much smaller gap. That gap is even smaller still in weighted DVOA, which weights more recent games more heavily, as Buffalo ranks 22nd and Miami ranks 20th.

This is because, huge loss last week aside, the Bills have been playing some decent football lately compared to the Dolphins. Last week’s loss was actually their first of 12+ since week 5. Since then, they won in Arizona, lost by 1 at home to Tennessee, lost by 12 in Houston, lost by 6 in New England, beat Miami, lost by 7 in Indianapolis, beat Jacksonville, and then lost by 3 to a decent St. Louis team, before last week’s blowout loss.

Blowout losses week 1, week 4, and 5, plus last week’s really damage their net points per drive, but 3 of them were a while ago and I think last week’s blowout loss can be blamed on the fact that they don’t seem to get up for Toronto games. I was worried about the game being in Toronto when I picked the Bills last week (+6) and made it a smaller play for that reason. In hindsight, I should have laid off it completely, but it didn’t appear to be a true neutral site because it’s so close to Buffalo. Plus, Buffalo’s mediocre 1-2 record there didn’t alarm me because this is a generally a mediocre team anyway.

However, after that blowout loss and the subsequent comments by Bills center Eric Wood, I think I’ll lay off the Bills in Toronto in the future if they ever play there again. Wood called the game a “joke,” said that “nobody wants to play there” and hopes they “don’t renew it.” Wood stood by those comments later in the week, saying “It kind of ticked me off. The way I look at it was, last week we were still in the hunt, and we’ve got a team traveling from the West Coast and we make them real comfortable. They get on a plane to play in Toronto, in a dome, without much crowd noise. You provide comfort that shouldn’t happen when you travel to Buffalo. You should have a cold, uncomfortable feeling when people come in. That’s our advantage. We go up in that dome and we let them feel really comfortable.”

Given that, I don’t put a ton of stock into that game and even still, the difference between these two teams’ weighted DVOA is negligible so that 8.5 point figure seems to be invalid. We’re not getting any line value with either side. However, Buffalo is in the much better spot this week. Teams tend to bounce back well off of a blowout losses like that. Teams are 63-33 ATS since 2002 off a 31+ point loss. Just look at Arizona last week after Seattle blew them out. Buffalo is more talented than them.

Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think that will be the case this week. They’re certainly undervalued as the line has shifted from -3.5 to -4.5 in the past week (more significant than you think because 4 is a key number) and still the public is on Miami. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run.

That’s not the only good spot the Bills are in, however. The Dolphins have a much bigger game next week in New England, while the Bills close out with a home contest against the New York McElroys. The Dolphins won’t be as focused as the Bills, especially with the Bills coming off that awful loss. Since 2000, the Dolphins are 16-26 ATS before playing their archrival the New England Patriots. Furthermore, since 2002, divisional home favorites are a ridiculous 15-48 ATS before being divisional dogs.

Going off that, teams are 43-85 ATS since 2002 before being double digit divisional dogs, including 7-21 ATS as favorites and 1-7 ATS as divisional home favorites before being double digit divisional dogs. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 9-18 ATS. On top of that, because the Bills will be favorites next week, they are dogs before being favorites, a spot teams are 108-67 ATS in since 2011, including 118-61 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Combining the last few trends, divisional home favorites are 4-27 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road dogs when their opponent will next be favorites. Look at Indianapolis’ near loss to the Colts a couple weeks back. They were in this exact same spot and barely beat the lowly Titans. If the Titans can almost beat the Colts, the Bills can definitely beat the Dolphins here.

One last note, the Dolphins have not been a good front running team over the last decade. I know they’ve had several coaching staffs and quarterbacks, but one thing always seems to remain the same, they struggle at home, especially as favorites and do well on the road, especially as dogs. Since 2004, they are 23-46 ATS at home, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites. This year, while they’ve covered 3 out of the 4 times as home dogs, they are just 1-2 ATS as home favorites. It might be different with a new coaching staff and quarterback, though there’s no evidence either way yet, but it’s worth noting and it’s not the biggest reason why I love the Bills this week. There are plenty of reasons and this is my pick of the week, as long as we’re getting 4 or more points with the Bills.

Public lean: Miami (60% range)

Sharps lean: BUF 12 MIA 2

Final thoughts: Sharps are all over the place this week, but it’s good to see that one of their few heavy leans is on the Bills, my pick of the week.

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Buffalo +4.5 (-110) 5 units

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