2012 Week 2 NFL Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

I had the Bills as one of my underrated teams going into the season, thinking that they’d be that team this year that makes the playoffs on the combination of a strong running game, strong defense, decent quarterback play, and an easy schedule. Well, it turns out that only works if your quarterback isn’t horrific and your defense doesn’t give up after going on 21-0 early as the opposing team’s offense scores twice with a short field off turnovers and then returns a kickoff for a touchdown.

At least I got the running game part right. Fred Jackson is out for this one, so the Bills won’t have their one-two punch, but CJ Spiller has proven he can be the one-two punch all by himself. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Last week, he managed 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. Remember, he was the 9th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The passing game and the defense weren’t good in the opener, but I think the latter will be better in this one. The Bills may have surrendered 48 points, but 14 of those were on a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown. Of the remaining 34, 14 were allowed early in the game on a short field and after those two scores and the punt return touchdown, the Bills’ defense just gave up.

That they gave up is a concern, but if they can have better luck early in this one, the defense won’t do that and they have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive line, so they should have a good game. Last week, because of their offense’s ineptude, they were on the field the 12th most of any team in the league in terms of time of possession and only allowed the 11th most yards. That’s not as horrific of a defensive performance as the 48 points would suggest.

The passing game is a major concern. All Fitzpatrick has to do, given their good running game and defense, is not make mistakes, but he threw 3 turnovers last week. He had that nice start to last season, but in his last 10 games, he’s completed 216 of 372 (58.1%) for 2288 yards (6.2 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. He didn’t have a good preseason either and he can’t blame a rib injury this time. I don’t know if he just doesn’t care as much now that he’s gotten paid or if his strong start to last season was a fluke or if opposing defensive coordinators have just caught on to Chan Gailey’s scheme or if it’s all 3, but Fitzpatrick is awful and probably will need to be replaced this offseason.

The Chiefs are similarly built. They can run the ball with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they have a good defense. I know they surrendered 40 to the Falcons last week, but they were missing their top cornerback and their top pass rusher and the Falcons might have a top-5 offense this year. Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers will be back this week and the Bills are far from a top-5 offense, so they should be able to have a good defensive game. This will allow them to execute the conservative offense they weren’t really able to in the opener because of their defensive play. This will make life easy for Matt Cassel, who turned the ball over 3 times last week because he was playing from behind for most of the game.

Theoretically, these teams are built the same way. Both can run the football and play good defense and make life easy for their quarterbacks, especially against easier opponents and both teams do have easier opponents this week. However, Cassel has proven that when things are made easy for him, he can avoid turnovers. Fitzpatrick seems to just like to force things even when he doesn’t have to.

Kansas City will probably win the turnover battle and the game here in Buffalo, but it’s not a huge bet because I hate betting on a team winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are just so tough to predict not just on a yearly basis, but on the weekly basis in the NFL and that’s really the one edge Kansas City should have this week over Buffalo. If they can’t win the turnover battle, Buffalo should win this one at home by a small margin. One note, this line is listed at +3 (+100) at some places and +3.5 (-120) at some places. If you can pay for the extra half point, do it. If Buffalo wins, it’ll probably be only by a field goal.

Public lean: Kansas City (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (+100) 2 units

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Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Rams

Washington Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)

I had the Rams as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The idea with picking underrated and overrated teams before the season was to bet on them (or against them for overrated teams) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. In 7 games involving these teams week 1, I went 5-2 ATS so I will be continuing that this week as I post recommendations for you to bet on nfl football, unless I have been proven wrong on a team.

I haven’t exactly been proven wrong on the Rams. They played about as well as I thought they would against the Lions, as I nailed my 5 unit pick (+7.5). It took a late Lions’ comeback to beat the Rams in Detroit, which is definitely an accomplishment for this team after the season they had last year. However, there are two concerns with them.

They lost two starters on the offensive line to injury, center Scott Wells and left tackle Rodger Saffold against the Rams. Part of my reasoning for an improved Rams team was an improved offensive line, with Scott Wells coming in and Rodger Saffold coming back from injury. That can’t really happen if both are hurt. The other thing was that Steven Jackson looked pretty done. History suggests he should have one more good year in him, but that’s no guarantee and he was just held to 53 yards on 21 carries by a Lions run defense that ranked 28th in the league in 2011. If he is done, three things will need to happen. The coaching staff will need to reduce his role. He will have to accept this reduced role without being upset. And rookies Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson will have to prove themselves capable of larger roles. That’s easier said than done, but if they can do that, they should still be able to run the conservative offense they’ll need to run to win games.

The good news is that Saffold is expected to be back for this game. He’s always been good when healthy and held his own against a strong Lions pass rush last week before going down and should be able to do the same this week against a strong Redskins pass rush. However, without Wells, they now have 3 holes on the offensive line (left guard, center, right tackle), so Bradford will be under some pressure in this one. That could also hurt their running game, which they really need to get back on track. They have a good defense and if they run the ball and make life easy for Sam Bradford, they can win some games. I haven’t quite even up on Steven Jackson yet though.

The Redskins held the Saints’ running game in check last week, but only because the Saints had to abandon the run early. This was the 18th ranked run defense in 2011 and they return a similar group of personnel, so they can be run on if the Redskins’ offense doesn’t force the Rams to abandon the run. The Redskins can also be thrown on. Their secondary and their defense is general is going to be a weakness. Even though the Saints’ offense was on the field for a league low 20:50 minutes last week, they still scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal and had 358 yards of offense.

So the big question is can Robert Griffin do what he did last week? I’m going to say no, for two reasons. The first is that he’s a rookie. He’s going to have some ups and downs. Even the best rookies do. Last week was definitely an up, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be that good again this week, especially against a better defense. St. Louis kept Detroit in check last week on the road. Now they’re at home, where they are a better team. In 2010, their last good season, they were 5-3 at home, as opposed to 2-6 on the road.

I’m taking the Rams for a pretty sizable bet for several reasons. I still think the Rams are underrated, despite a solid showing last week, while Washington might be a little bit overrated. They had a very good performance last week, but the Saints aren’t the normal Saints and Griffin, by his nature as a rookie, will be inconsistent. He could look more like a rookie this week against a tougher Rams defense.

The Redskins’ defense, meanwhile, is a concern. Their defense wasn’t great last year, ranking 21st in scoring. Some of that had to do with the offense’s poor play, leading to the defense having to see the field more than average, but the Saints proved last week that the Redskins have some problems defensively as they put up a lot of yards in the little time they actually saw the field. If the Redskins’ defense is on the field around 30 minutes this week, Bradford and company should be able to move the ball against them and keep this a close game.

I think this will be a close game either way and I feel like the line should be something like -2 or -3 in favor of St. Louis (3 points for home field advantage), so there’s definitely line value. As long as I’m getting more than 3 points with St. Louis, I’m making a pretty sizeable bet. I don’t think Washington has proven enough yet to be worth being road favorites or more than 3, especially against an underrated Rams team.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

St. Louis Rams 23 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Panthers, Saints

New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-1)

I thought the Saints would be alright even after the offseason they just had. Their defensive losses weren’t huge (Will Smith was even reinstated for the opener and Jonathan Vilma is incredibly overrated) and the loss of the coaches would mostly effect the offense, where Drew Brees would function well as a stabilizing force. They certainly didn’t look alright in the opener, losing to home, where they won all 9 games last year, and while they may be better later in the season, once they have a few more games under their belt without Sean Payton, they won’t look like the normal Saints early in the season.

So can the Saints beat the Panthers in Carolina if they’re not the normal Saints? Well, they certainly could. This is still a talented team. There is a major question though as this team goes on the road. They’re a great home team, but they have trouble on the road, especially outside and especially over the past 2 years, as they are 7-11 ATS on the road and 12-5 ATS at home.

Honestly, I don’t really have a strong opinion on this. Could the Saints come out like the Packers did on Thursdsay night, kill any talk of a down year and an 0-2 start to the season and demolish a divisional rival? Sure, they could. Drew Brees is 20-12 ATS off a loss as a member of the Saints and this is a key game. He is the type of quarterback who wins key games. Could the Saints also be more dysfunctional than we thought (or as dysfunctional as they looked in the opener) and come out and struggle to beat a Carolina team that is underrated off a loss to an underrated Bucs team? Sure they could. After all, the Panthers covered as home dogs against the Saints last year and almost won, losing by just 3 and I think we can all agree, this version of the Saints is inferior.

I want to go with the Panthers because the Saints are clearly the public lean and I love “fading” the public and the Panthers almost beat the Saints last year, but something tells me, after seeing the Packers play last night, that this will be a huge statement game for the Saints, and that they aren’t as bad as they looked last week, so I’m going with Drew Brees and his 20-12 ATS record as a Saint after a loss to bounce back this week.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

New Orleans Saints 31 Carolina Panthers 27

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3 (-105) 1 unit

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans

Houston Texans (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

Blaine Gabbert looked serviceable in the opener against the Vikings, completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

Houston this week, unfortunately, has both a great pass rush and a great secondary, so this will be a major test for the 2nd year quarterback. He won’t get a lot of help from his offensive line. Minnesota’s got a great pass rush, but part of the reason why Gabbert was under pressure so much was the play of his offensive line, specifically right tackle. Cameron Bradfield got the start, but left with an ankle injury, allowing Guy Whimper, who was awful last year as a starter, to come in. He was awful, making Brian Robison look like a Pro Bowl defensive end.

Bradfield wasn’t much better before he got hurt and Robison pressured Gabbert on 9 throws. Whoever starts there this week will have a tough time trying to contain the Texans’ pass rush, especially if it’s Whimper, which it looks like it will be. Also likely to miss this week’s game with injury is left guard Eben Britton. Britton moved from right tackle to left guard when Will Rackley got hurt and if he can’t go, it’ll be up to either undrafted rookie Mike Brewster or Troy Kropog, recently signed, to start at left guard. Either way, it’s a problem area. Gabbert will be under pressure all night and if he reverts to his old habits, he could really struggle, especially against Houston’s secondary. Even if he continues to show poise in the pocket, the Jaguars will probably still have trouble moving the ball against a tough Houston defense.

The Jaguars also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Daryl Smith and Derek Cox did not suit up for the opener and might not play again this week. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missed 1 game and maybe more. In the opener, replacements Aaron Ross and Kyle Bosworth predictably struggled. If the Jaguars couldn’t stop the Vikings, they’re going to have a lot of trouble stopping the Texans.

This matchup seems pretty straight forward. Jacksonville had a nice little game in an eventual losing effort to a mediocre Vikings team, but they’re simply too overmatched to beat or even hang with the Texans, especially being as banged up as they are now. The Texans might be the most complete team in the league.  It’s not a very big bet though because I hate betting on road favorites of 7+. Road favorites of 7+ are 77-98 ATS since 2002, which is not quite significant enough to deter me from betting on the Texans in what should be a blow out game, but it is significant enough to prevent me from making this a big bet.

Weird things can happen in games between significantly superior teams and significantly inferior teams when the significantly inferior team is at home. Just think back to the Philadelphia at Cleveland game last week. Same situation and for the same reason I made it a small bet on Philadelphia, even though I felt it should be a blowout. It wasn’t and I wasn’t hurt too much.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Houston Texans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Houston -7.5 (-105) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Falcons

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0)

If it wasn’t for Green Bay/Chicago, this would be the game of the week. Actually, scratch that, Green Bay/Chicago was an incredibly ugly game that should have been the game of the week, but wasn’t because teams only had 3 days to prepare and played much worse than they normally do. I hate this new one game on Thursday every week thing. Thursday Night games are often awful, ugly, hard to watch games and in the case of Green Bay/Chicago, it cost us a chance to see two great teams fight for the division on normal rest.

Anyway, this game is on Monday Night Football, so both teams will be fully prepared and then some. Both teams made huge statement games in their first week back offensively, Peyton Manning by proving that even 4 neck surgeries and an address change couldn’t slow him down, completing 19 of 26 for 253 yards and 2 scores and hanging 31 on the Steelers, while Matt Ryan proved that all the hype about a potential breakout year for him in his 5th year in the league was not just hype as he completed 23 of 31 for 299 yards and 3 scores.

Neither of these teams plays very good defense either. Denver had a strong defensive performance in the opener, but they were the league’s 24th ranked scoring defense in 2011 with essentially the same group of guys. Some of that was on the offenses struggles putting a ton of pressure on the defense and Peyton Manning’s presence will help, but they also ranked 18th in the league last year in terms of points per play allowed. Unless free agent acquisition Tracy Porter can continue to be the shutdown cornerback he was in the opener, the Broncos will be an average defensive team most likely this year, and Porter’s history suggests that his performance last week was probably the best we’re going to see from him this year.

Atlanta, meanwhile, was the league’s 18th ranked scoring defense last year. They did make a significant addition this offseason, bringing in Asante Samuel from Philadelphia to shore up a weakness and that was the cornerback spot opposite Brent Grimes. However, Grimes is now done for the year with a torn Achilles, which obviously hurts them because he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league when healthy and they had some trouble stopping a mediocre Kansas City offense in the opener even before Grimes went down. In Grimes’ place, Dunta Robinson will step into the starting lineup. He’s been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league over the past few years and he’s the reason why they brought in Samuel.

So we know a lot of points are going to be scored, but who wins? As enticing as it is to be able to bet on Peyton Manning as an underdog, 10-4 ATS in this situation since 2006, it’s even more enticing to bet on Matt Ryan at home where he’s 21-8 ATS in his career (25-5 SU). It’s important to remember that the Falcons’ strong offensive day last week came on the road, while the Broncos’ came at home. The Broncos have a huge home field advantage this year with the combination of the thin air and Peyton Manning’s no huddle offense; defenses are just going to get tired and Manning will be able to tear them apart late, like he did against Pittsburgh (9 of 12 for 155 yards and 2 scores). He won’t have that same advantage in Atlanta, so while I like both sides to score a lot of points, it’s a small lean on the home team in this one. This is also another opportunity to “fade” the public, something I love to do. It’s not entirely by design, but I’ve actually faded the public in every pick but 2 so far this week. I also like betting against public underdogs, which Denver is.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Atlanta covers)

Atlanta Falcons 34 Denver Broncos 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (-115) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0)

Both of these teams were in my overrated group heading into the season. The idea with the overrated/underrated teams was to bet the underrated teams and against the overrated teams until the odds makers caught up or I was proven wrong. Detroit didn’t prove me wrong as they barely eked out a come from behind win at home against the Rams, helping me nail my pick of the week, but the 49ers proved me wrong last week, pulling the upset victory in Green Bay. In fact, of all of my preseason predictions, that may be the one I end up being most wrong on. This doesn’t bother me too much, as I was 5-2 last week on games involved underrated or overrated teams, but it does force me to make adjustments.

I don’t think it’s really fair to say that the 49ers are on overrated team anymore, but it is fair to say that about the Lions. In order to improve on their win total, the Lions would have to improve their win total for the 4th straight season. In the up and down NFL, that rarely happens. Their running back depth chart is basically the same as their inactive list. They finished last season 5-7, including playoffs. They had a distraction filled offseason and they needed an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 points or more to even win 10 games last year, because of how bad their defense is. It’s not any better this season and if the offense doesn’t bail them out at a record rate again, they could regress.

There’s no way they deserve to be just 7 point underdogs in San Francisco. That suggests that San Francisco is just 4 points better than the Lions, which I don’t think is true. The one thing that I acknowledged could completely derail my 49ers prediction would be Alex Smith improbably breaking out as a true franchise quarterback at age 28, with the addition of new weapons and a full offseason in Jim Harbaugh’s scheme. That’s because the premise behind calling the 49ers an overrated team was largely based on my observation that teams cannot consistently win in the NFL without a true franchise quarterback. You can have a good year, or even a great year, but it’s hard to be consistent on a year to year basis purely on running the football, playing good defense, and winning the turnover battle (See Baltimore pre-Flacco and Chicago pre-Cutler).

It’s still inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback, but one thing is for sure, the Packers made him look like one, blowing coverages left and right, failing to stop the run, and only pressuring him on 7 of 33 drop backs. It’ll still be inconclusive whether or not Smith is a true franchise quarterback after this one because the Lions also have a terrible defense, ranking 23rd in scoring last year.

They were the league’s 28th ranked run defense in 2011, so despite a strong showing in run defense in the opener, I don’t expect them to be able to contain the 49ers’ two headed attack of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. This will make life very easy for Smith, who will also be facing a Lions’ pass defense that made Sam Bradford look pretty good in the opener (17 of 25 for 198 yards and a score).

They’ll probably be able to get more pressure on Smith than the Packers did, but their secondary is even worse, even with Chris Houston returning from injury. They’ll still be without Louis Delmas and now rookie Bill Bentley with injury, leaving Jacob Lacey, who struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year, to start opposite Houston. Meanwhile, Drayton Florence, who was recently a final cut of the Broncos, will man the slot. With Delmas out, veteran journeyman Erik Coleman will start next to incumbent 2011 starter Amari Spievey, who really struggled last year. The 49ers should be able to move the ball.

Because of that and their ball control offense, they should be able to keep Matt Stafford and company on the sidelines for the majority of the game, like they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Lions are like a poor man’s version of the Packers, assuming the Packers’ defense doesn’t improve. The 49ers beat the Packers in Lambeau last week, so they should be able to beat the Lions at home. The 49ers won’t stop Stafford and this passing game, like they didn’t stop Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game, but they’ll limit them and dominate the other areas of the game, much like last week. Also like last week, they should be able to put a complete halt on a Lions running game that isn’t very good to begin with, much like the Packers’.

I’m going with the 49ers here as 7 point favorites in a matchup of two of my preseason overrated teams. The 49ers looked much, much better than the Lions did last week and they match up very well with the one dimensional Lions. The reason this isn’t a big bet is twofold. For one, the 49ers don’t have the type of offense built to blow people out, while the Lions have the type of offense that can mount a late backdoor cover drive against a sizeable spread. The 2nd reason is “handshake gate.” Jim Schwartz is kind of crazy and took Harbaugh’s rough handshake very personally after these two teams met last year. If he can somehow use that as motivation for his team, they’ll have the motivation edge in this one.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

San Francisco 49ers 27 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Patriots

Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (0-1)

Kevin Kolb looked good in relief of an injured John Skelton last week, leading the game winning drive to beat the Seahawks, but the Seahawks are a mediocre to average team that always seems to flop on the road. The Patriots in Foxboro are going to obviously be a much tougher challenge. The offense has taken on new dimensions with the addition of Brandon Lloyd as a deep threat, the promotion of the more explosive Stevan Ridley at running back, and the re-addition of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator; they didn’t even need Wes Welker in the opener.

Welker barely did anything. They have so many weapons that it didn’t even matter. They can still have a great game even if one of their top 4 receivers doesn’t do anything. Tom Brady looks as good as ever and the offensive line, a concern heading into the game, held up just enough to allow everyone else enough time to keep open and Tom Brady to find them.

Defensively, they seem to be much improved from last season. Last year, like the Packers, they gave up a bunch of yards like the Packers did, but did alright defensively because they forced a bunch of turnovers. Forcing a bunch of turnovers is not something that’s reliable on a yearly basis, but unlike the Packers, the Patriots’ defense seems to have gotten even better, particularly in the front 7; their secondary may still have some questions, but they have a big, physical offensive front with Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love, Rod Ninkovich, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo and adequate depth.

They can get pressure against anyone, pressuring Locker on 14 of 36 dropbacks, against a Tennessee offensive line that surrendered the 2nd fewest sacks in the league last year, and they are fierce against the run, holding to 20 yards rushing on 16 attempts, with 11 of those coming on 2 quarterback scrambles.

This doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals. The Cardinals found no running home against a tough Seahawks run defense last week, rushing for 43 yards on 20 carries and this week shouldn’t be much difference. Meanwhile, they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, so the Patriots should be able to get pressure on Kevin Kolb early and often, which is a very bad thing for the Cardinals.

Even though Kolb looked decent in very limited action last week, leading a game winning drive, it doesn’t change the fact that Kolb has very poor pocket presence. Kolb took a sack on 26.1% of pressured dropbacks last year, 3rd worst among eligible quarterbacks, and in 2010 he was 6th, taking one on 23.2% of pressured drop backs. Even with the Patriots’ less than stellar secondary, Kolb should have trouble consistently moving the ball against the Patriots’, unsupported by a running game, and since the Patriots’ offense can put pressure on the opposing offense better than maybe any team in the league, he could be forced into several turnovers.

This should be a very easy win for the Patriots, especially since the Cardinals are travelling across the country to play 1 PM ET start as a West Coast team, a situation teams tend to struggle in. The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league and the Cardinals are one of the worst. This isn’t a very big bet, because this is a huge line, but all signs point to this being a blowout. This is also my choice for survivor pick of the week, for anyone who does that type of thing (last week, it was Houston).

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

New England Patriots 38 Arizona Cardinals 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New England Patriots -14 (-110) 1 unit

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Giants

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

I had the Buccaneers as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. In 2010, everything went right for this team. They had an easy schedule and went 9-1 against sub .500 teams (1-5 against everyone else). They turned the ball over just 19 times and after regressing 6 wins from 2008 to 2009, predictably bounced back. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season. The Buccaneers did that and more, going from 3 to 10 wins.

However, in 2011, they predictably declined. Like teams that regress by a big win total, teams that improve by a big win total also tend to go the other direction in the following season. Teams that improve 7 games win an average of 4.5 fewer games the following season. The Buccaneers are very familiar with this principle, going from 9 wins in 2008 to 3 in 2009 to 10 in 2010. It was easy to see how they’d do it. They turned the ball over less than 20 times in 2010, which is an unsustainable stat for a team without a true elite quarterback. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. They also had a much tougher schedule and proved in 2010 that they couldn’t beat tough competition.

The Buccaneers ended up regressing more than 4.5 wins. They regressed 6 wins and turned the ball over a whopping 40 times, going 4-12 and losing their last 10 after quitting on Head Coach Raheem Morris. They went from playing 6 games against teams that were .500 or better than 11 and didn’t improve, going 2-9 in those 11 games. There is definitely reason to be optimistic for the Buccaneers this season. Teams that regress 6 wins win an average of 3.0 more games the following season and teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and have won 1.61 more games. Raheem Morris is gone and is replaced with a much more disciplinarian Head Coach in Greg Schiano and the team finally spent money in the offseason. Though they overpaid each one of them, there’s no doubt that the trio of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, and Eric Wright, overall, will have a positive impact on this team in 2012.

Their young defense should be better with another year of experience and they could get a bounce back year from Aqib Talib. They also get Gerald McCoy back from injury. McCoy is an incredibly valuable player when healthy. When he’s been in the lineup over the past 2 years, they’re 11-8 and allow 22.1 points per game. When he’s not, they’re 3-12 and allow 30.2 points per game. That’s obviously not all him, as those numbers are skewed because he missed most of his time last season when they had a tougher schedule and committed more turnovers. However, the 3rd pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is still a great player and they really missed him when he got hurt last season.

Eric Wright, though he was not worth his giant contract, will be an upgrade at cornerback over Ronde Barber, who has been moved to safety. They also add rookie safety Mark Barron to an improved defensive backfield and rookie linebacker Lavonte David to one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL last year. The new coaching staff will also bring discipline to a team that missed the most tackles of any team since they started keeping the stat. Remember, this team had the 9th ranked defense in the league in 2010, allowing 19.9 points per game. They probably won’t be that good, but fewer missed tackles, additions, bounce back years, maturation of young players, an easier schedule, and fewer turnovers from the offense (which puts a ton of pressure on the defense) should help this defense be more middle of the pack.

Offensively, they have the additions of Carl Nicks and Vincent Jackson, as well as potential bounce back years from Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount, key parts of their 2010 team. They also add running back Doug Martin in the first round of the draft. Gone is Kellen Winslow, but that might be a good thing. Of Freeman’s 22 interceptions, 9 were targeted for Winslow, most in the league. Davin Joseph is also gone for the year with injury, but he’s one of the most overrated players in the league so that’s not a huge deal. Josh Freeman probably won’t have the 25 touchdowns to 6 interceptions he had in 2010, but he probably won’t have the 16 touchdowns to 22 interceptions he had last year.

In the opener, they not only proved me right, but they showed they may actually be better than what I thought. I had them right in the middle of 4 and 10 wins at 7, but if their defense continues to play like that (remember, they were the 9th ranked defense in 2010), they’re going to be much closer to 10 wins than 4. The idea with the underrated teams was to bet them until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. They didn’t prove me wrong, but I’m starting to wonder if maybe the odds makers caught up. They’re just +7 here on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs and keep in mind, they are still just 3-14 against teams that finish with a record of .500 or better, which the Giants almost definitely will.

For that reason, I’m pretty torn on this one. They may still be underrated, but not nearly as much as they were last week, when they were home underdogs for a Carolina team that won 6 games last year. However, the Giants are coming off an emotional loss and may come out flat in this one. Super Bowl champs are 2-6 ATS week 2 ever since the NFL started having defending Super Bowl champs play on Thursday Night Football (Wednesday Night Football this year because of some stupid political crap).

Now, the last 8 have all won that opener, but even teams that lose that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings. Both sides tend to be flat the following week and that could happen to the Giants this week.

However, the Giants are 7-3 ATS under Tom Coughlin as favorites after losing as a favorite. In a very similar situation last year, after having a dud week 1 performance in a multi-score loss to the Redskins, they blew out the Rams the following week as favorites. Besides, this is typically a good team in the first half of the season. They’re 40-26 ATS during the first 9 weeks of the season under Tom Coughlin, and straight up, they’re 47-18 in their first 8 games under Tom Coughlin, as opposed to 27-37 in their last 8. Plus, as I said, the Buccaneers have trouble beating .500+ teams.

So what’s my pick? I’m going with the Buccaneers to continue to prove that they’re underrated, even if they’re significantly less so than last week, and to keep this one close and within the 7 points, but to ultimately lose. The ATS trends seem to suggest that the Buccaneers will cover, even if the SU trends seem to suggest that the Giants will win outright, so that’s what I’m going with. I also am taking this opportunity to not only bet on one of my preseason underrated teams, but also to “fade” the public, something I love to do. It’s not entirely by design, but I’ve actually faded the public in every pick so far this week. It’s not a very big bet though.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

New York Giants 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-1)

No team has a bigger home/road disparity over the past few years than the Seattle Seahawks. Since 2007, they’re 11-32 SU and 14-28 ATS on the road, but 24-18 SU and 27-14 ATS at home. That’s why it was predictable that they would lose to an inferior Cardinals team on the road last week; that’s why it’s now predictable that they’ll bounce back at home against a superior Cowboys team.

Speaking of that superior Cowboys team, they got a huge win last week over the New York Giants. Since the NFL started having teams play on Thursday Night to start the season (this year it was Wednesday night because of some stupid political thing), teams that win that game are 2-6 ATS the following week. The Packers almost lost to the Panthers the following week last year and they started 13-0.

Now, all 8 of the teams that won the opener have been Super Bowl champs, but it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with whether or not you’re defending Super Bowl champs. Teams that lose that game are also 2-6 ATS the following week. It’s an emotional game for both sides, for the defending Super Bowl champ because they get a big celebration and get their rings and for the opponent because they want to knock off the champs, especially after watching them celebrate and get their rings.

Besides, teams are 16-27 ATS since 2002 after knocking off the defending Super Bowl champ, regardless of week. Teams typically give everything they have when they play the Super Bowl champs and after getting an emotional win, it becomes very tough for them to sustain that energy the following week, so they’re typically flat and also typically slightly overrated coming off a huge win.

This should be true for the Cowboys. They gave the Giants everything they had last week, in an effort to not just knock off the Super Bowl champs, but to also try to establish dominance over a divisional foe who had recently had their number and just last season ended their season. It’s going to be very tough for them to sustain that kind of energy against the “lowly” Seahawks, who just lost to the Cardinals.

Besides, even though they won last week, it wasn’t quite as impressive as people are making it seem. The Giants may have been defending Super Bowl champs, but they were also the worst regular season team, in terms of win and point differential, to ever win the Super Bowl and the Cowboys only won because Tony Romo played one of the best games of his career and would not let the Cowboys destroy themselves with penalties. This week, that probably won’t happen and if they continue to commit tons of penalties, they could easily lose.

Now on to the “lowly” Seahawks. Their road/home disparity makes them a little underrated here. Their loss last week to an inferior squad was predictable, but they still have a strong defense and they still can run the ball and win if they don’t turn the ball over much, especially at home. They’re not some easy opponent that’s just going to roll over in Seattle (since 2007, they’re 12-4 ATS as home dogs of 3+). Last week, they were road favorites, normally the sign of a strong team and this week they’re home dogs, normally the sign of a week team. That seems like an overreaction based on one week.

A trend that sums this situation up nicely is this one: teams that lose as road favorites are 45-34 ATS since 1989 as home dogs the following week. This makes sense. Last week, they were good enough to be road favorites and now after just one week they’re bad enough to be home dogs? That’s an overreaction and the public is definitely overreacting to one week as almost all of the action is on the Cowboys in this one. I’m not going to overreact to one week. I’m going to pick the Seahawks to predictably bounce back at home after predictably flopping on the road against a Cowboys team that is publicly overrated and will overlook them following a huge, emotional victory.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Seattle Seahawks 24 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Seattle +3 (+115) 4 units

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Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

Before the season, I had the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency.

If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. Well I haven’t been proven wrong as the Raiders lost at home to a banged up Chargers team that normally struggles on the road early in the season. Have the odds makers caught up? Well, considering the Raiders are road favorites here in Miami, I would say no.

Miami is a very good team or anything, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be road favorites over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finish with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Raiders aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 2.5, which would translate to -8.5 in Oakland. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.

There’s also the issue of the Raiders having to play a 1 PM game on the East Coast as a West Coast teams. Teams are typically flat in this situation and the Raiders are no exception, going 6-12 ATS on the East Coast in 1 PM games since 2003. The Raiders came in to Miami in a very similar situation last year and lost 34-14 as 3 point underdogs, even though the Dolphins were 4-7 at the time and the Raiders were 7-4. This time, the Raiders are favorites, which makes Miami an even more enticing bet since Oakland is 4-14 ATS as favorites since 2006. They also haven’t been road favorites since week 14 of 2005 (a loss), which makes sense since they’ve never been qualified to be road favorites since then. They aren’t this week either.

These teams are pretty evenly matched. This line should be about -3 in favor of Miami (3 points is home field advantage), as it was last year. The Dolphins are worse offensively since last year, but the Raiders are worse defensively. Instead, it’s -2.5 in favor of Oakland, so there’s about 5.5 points of line value, which goes back to my point about Oakland being overrated. That alone would be enough for a bet on Miami, but I like betting against Oakland as favorites and on the road on the East Coast at 1 PM.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Miami Dolphins 20 Oakland Raiders 17 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-105) 3 units

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