2012 Week 2 NFL Picks

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Steelers

New York Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

If I had remembered how bad the Steelers were on the road last year, I probably would not have picked them in Denver. Seriously, look at this, lose by 28 in Baltimore, win by 3 in Indianapolis, lose by 7 in Houston, win by 12 in Arizona, win by 7 in Cincinnati, win by 4 in Kansas City, lose by 17 in San Francisco, win by 4 in Cleveland. 3 good teams beat them, 3 bad teams hung with them, the only impressive wins were by 12 in Arizona and by 7 in Cincinnati and even those weren’t that impressive, and then of course there was the overtime playoff loss to the Broncos. This team was -22 on the road last year and +120 at home.

The good news for the Steelers, they return home this week. They also return James Harrison from injury and get back Ryan Clark, who can’t play in thin mountain air because of a genetic condition. That will help this defense, as will the fact that they won’t be playing against a no huddle offense in thin mountain air. It also didn’t help that last week was just their first game back. They looked gassed for most of the Broncos’ game, especially once the Broncos went true no huddle. This week, they won’t see a lot of no huddle and they’ll be playing back at home and at sea level. This is a very talented defense; last week just seemed to be a bad situation for them. Remember, they were the #1 scoring defense in 2011 despite key injuries and despite a league low 15 turnovers, something that almost certainly won’t happen again this year.

This week, they also won’t be playing an offensive juggernaut like the Broncos were. The Jets may have looked like an offensive juggernaut last week, exploding for 48 points after failing to score a touchdown with either their first or second team offense all preseason. However, that’s a little misleading. 14 of those points were scored by their defense or special teams and they definitely benefitted from consistently great field position, starting their 9 drives on the 35.1 yard line on average, a big part of the reason why they were able to score 4 touchdowns and kick 2 field goals. They actually only had 384 yards, the 11th highest total on the week.

On top of all that, the Bills’ defense just seemed to quit after they got down big early. The Jets got up 21-0 early on the strength of a 61 yard touchdown drive, a 52 yard touchdown drive, and a punt return touchdown and the Bills just seemingly gave up after that. That’s why I call their offensive performance a defensive aided offensive performance. The defense gave them great field position all night, especially early, and allowed the Jets to work with short fields against a Bills defense that had given up after getting down big early. Their offense scored 34 points and had 384 yards largely because of that. I’m not trying to completely sell the offense short. They played a very good game and surprised a lot of people, but they had a lot of help from the defense, who was able to capitalize on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s terrible game. Their offense problems aren’t totally solved and they’re going to have trouble beating real teams with real quarterbacks, which the Steelers definitely are.

The other issue is just offensive consistency. Mark Sanchez has had good games in the past, but one of his biggest issues has been consistency. It’s for that reason that his career QB rating is pretty mediocre, 74.2. He’s completed 55.6% of his career passes for an average of 6.8 YPA and 58 touchdowns to 52 interceptions. He doesn’t magically become a better quarterback just because he had a good game. It also doesn’t help that his top receiver is a 2nd round rookie, Stephen Hill, who, by his very nature as a rookie, will also be inconsistent this season. Was their offense impressive last week? Yes. Do I expect it to continue? No, especially not against the Steelers’ defense.

Unless the Steelers’ offense completely implodes like the Bills’ did last week, the Jets offense will have a harder time scoring points this week, especially against one of the top defenses in the league. I don’t expect the Steelers’ offense to implode, especially since the Jets could be without their top defensive player, Darrelle Revis, who suffered a concussion last week and will need to be cleared before game time if he wants to play.

The Jets’ performance last week and, to a lesser extent, the Steelers’ performance last week has skewed this line a lot. Before last week, this line probably would have been something like -9 in favor of the Steelers. Instead, it’s -5.5. That suggests that the Jets are only 2.5 points worse than the Steelers (add 3 for home field advantage) and I don’t think that’s true, especially with Revis’ status in doubt. There’s a lot of line value here. The Steelers should bounce back at home, with 2 defensive starters returning, with a better matchup for their defense (no thin air, very little no huddle), while the Jets’ offensive performance last week was defensive aided and probably a fluke.

Not only is there line value, but the Jets’ are a publicly backed underdog, which I love betting against, especially with the line dropping even as money goes on the Jets, which is one of the signs of a trap line. The odds makers seem to be playing off public overreaction, which I’m not going to fall into. On top of all this, Mike Tomlin is 15-9 ATS off a loss since taking over in 2007, while the Steelers’ in general are 23-15 ATS off a loss since 2004, when Ben Roethlisberger took over as starting quarterback (1-0 without him, 22-15 ATS with him), and they have covered in their last 8 such instances. The Steelers are one of my favorite plays of the week.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Pittsburgh covers)

Update: I’m not quite as confident in this pick as I was before. James Harrison was surprisingly ruled out for the 2nd straight week, while Troy Polamalu did not practice Friday. The latter is their single most important defensive player. The Jets, however, will also be without their most important defensive player as Darrelle Revis has been ruled out. Their chances of winning without him are pretty slim.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -6 (-105) 2 units

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Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Titans

Tennessee Titans (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-0)

Never bet on the Chargers early in the season. Prior to last year, when the Chargers went 4-1 early against a cupcake schedule, the Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-6 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last year, they’re actually 3-7 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era. Well, almost never. I bet on the Chargers last week because they were playing what I thought was an overrated Raiders team and I turned out to be right with that pick.

Still, the Chargers didn’t look good. If it wasn’t for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper, they could have lost to a Raider team that I think is one of the worst in the league. That win reminded me of their 4-1 start last season. The Chargers were able to beat up on a cupcake schedule last year early, beating Minnesota by 7, Kansas City by 3, Miami by 10, and Denver (prebow) by 5. However, once they started playing real teams, things got a lot harder for them and they actually went on a 6 game losing streak.

The Titans are a real team. I picked them to make the playoffs before the season and I’m not changing that prediction. They had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year, despite having 6 of 11 starters in their 3rd year or younger. That continued growth and maturity, as well as their cornerback depth, and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley and potential breakout of Derrick Morgan as much needed pass rushers would cancel out the loss of Cortland Finnegan.

Offensively, I felt they should continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and I felt their run blocking would be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, I felt Chris Johnson would be back to his old self. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando.

They also have Kenny Britt returning from injury. Britt missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games. In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board.

Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action). Basically, I felt the same way about the Titans that I did at that point last year about the Lions, who proved me right.

And you know what, none of that has really changed. The Titans just ran into the wrong team at the wrong time playing the Patriots last week. The Patriots might be the best team in the league. Jake Locker played well before leaving with injury and he should be back for this one, with Kenny Britt also returning to give them an added boost in the receiving corps. Locker should have another good game now that he has one start under his belt.

Defensively, there’s no shame in giving up 30+ points to the Patriots. Everyone does it pretty much. It doesn’t mean they have a bad defense. They should have a bounce back week this week against the Chargers. The Chargers still have Philip Rivers, but they’re incredibly banged up offensively. They’ll be probably be without top running back Ryan Matthews again, leaving Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley to split carries. Neither of them did anything against the Raiders last week.

They’re also without Vincent Brown, their best receiver in Training Camp before his injury, leaving Philip Rivers with the overpaid Robert Meachem, who has a career high 45 catches despite playing 4 years with Drew Brees, and Malcom Floyd, an inconsistent receiver in his age 31 season who has caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games, missing 9 games over the past 2 years. Antonio Gates will be his favorite target, unless the 32 year old, who has also missed 9 games over the past 2 years, gets hurt.

Finally, they’ll be without left tackle Jared Gaither once again, leaving undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the blind side again on a line already with major weaknesses at left guard and right tackle. Philip Rivers is an elite quarterback, but this might just be too much for him to handle. After all, despite being set up with great field position by 3 Raider special teams miscues, the Chargers managed just 22 points and got in the end zone just once against a Raider defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and lost several key players this offseason. The Titans defense should be able to keep them in check.

The one thing I’m really worried about is Chris Johnson, especially since the Chargers’ run defense just did a great job on Darren McFadden last week. However, I’m not quite ready to give up on him and a lot of his problems are on the offensive line. The Titans replaced right guard LeRoy Harris with Jake Matthews late in the game and he played a little bit better. Matthews will continue to start this week, so maybe that will help. Playing anyone other than the Patriots’ great run defense will also help, no matter how good a job the Chargers did on McFadden last week.

I also believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 85% of the money is on San Diego, yet the line has dropped from -7 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -6 with juice. They really want us to bet San Diego. The odds makers seem to agree that Tennessee is overrated and San Diego is still the same old September Chargers. They’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

This is my pick of the week. The Titans looked bad last week because of who they played, but they’re still a solid team. The Chargers meanwhile, should never be bet on as favorites early in the season, especially not against a solid team. The Titans defense should continue to make the Chargers’ offense struggle, while Jake Locker and company should be able to move the ball against a Chargers defense that ranked 22nd in scoring last year and is overrated now because they held an overrated Raiders’ offense to 14 points when they were missing arguably their top receiver Denarius Moore. Covering Locker to Kenny Britt and the rest of these weapons will be a lot harder than covering Carson Palmer to Darrius Heyward-Bey and Rod Streater.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 27 San Diego 23 Upset Pick +230

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 5 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 2 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Baltimore got a blow out win last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Cincinnati. Cincinnati was one of my overrated teams as well, so the Ravens remain overrated because they blew out an overrated opponent. Cincinnati didn’t beat a single playoff team last year and has been hit by the injury bug as hard as maybe any team in football.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

Some interpret that game as the Ravens being better than people thought. I’m sticking with my original prediction that the Bengals are just worse than we thought. As for the Ravens, they seem to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone. The latter is very important for this game. Yes, they blew out Cincinnati at home, but until they prove they can be consistent and win on the road, something they didn’t do last year, I’m going to continue to pick against them in those situations.

Last year, this team was 4-5 on the road, as opposed to 9-0 at home. They lost to Tennessee by 13, Jacksonville by 5, Seattle by 5, San Diego by 20, and New England by 3, while beating St. Louis by 30, Pittsburgh by 3, Cleveland by 10, and Cincinnati by 8. Only their near win in New England and their win in Pittsburgh were impressive road performances (maybe the blowout win over St. Louis, but they won just 2 games).

They also fell flat after big performances, losing to Seattle and Tennessee after beating Pittsburgh twice. They were just 3-5 SU on the road coming off a win last year. Normally, that wouldn’t trouble me, but they’re 13-17 SU in that situation since Harbaugh/Flacco came in back in 2008. It’s really weird for a team that’s 37-7 SU in all other situations.

This week, they’re coming off a big win, a coming out party of sorts on Monday Night Football, week 1, a blowout win over a divisional foe. However, they did the same thing last year week 1 and lost by 13 in Tennessee the next week. This year, they go to Philadelphia week 2. They are a much better team than Tennessee was last year.

Let’s go on to Philadelphia. I had them as slightly underrated going into the season. I had them making a big improvement over last season, but apparently so did everyone else. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis.

The Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. Since 2002, 42 teams have 35 or more turnovers and 36 have had 20 or fewer. The 42 teams who’ve had 35 or more turnovers have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 that the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers had the following season.

This year, they may be even more talented. However, the odds makers set their over/under at 10, one of only 9 teams with an over/under of 10 or more and the only non-playoff team in 2011. Because of that, they lost most of their “underratedness” and their week 1 line against Cleveland, -7.5 in Cleveland, was completely reasonable. There was no line value there.

This week, I think there is some line value. At the very least, these two teams are probably about even, so this line should be -3 or higher and that’s not taking into account Baltimore’s consistency and road issues from last season. The final score from last week’s game is a little misleading and skews this line a little, as does Baltimore’s blowout win over the secretly lowly Bengals. Yes, the Eagles did barely beat the Browns by 1 in Cleveland, but they outgained them 456 to 210.

So what happened? Well, the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5 to 4, which was a common problem for them last year and one that will have to get cleaned up. The other issue was just what the Browns did with those turnovers, as opposed to what the Eagles’ did. The Browns returned their 5 takeaways for 88 yards, while the Eagles managed just 13 yards on their 4 takeaways. Preventing the other team from getting a big gain or a score once they have the turnover is way more skill than luck. Even if the Eagles lose the turnover battle again this week, they could still win if they outgain the Ravens, so long as they don’t get killed with turnovers.

They may turn the ball over a couple of times, but so could the Ravens. The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league. It wasn’t just the Browns’ offense making them look good. The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year. He really played well against the Browns.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better and that carries over into last week.

With DRC and Asomugha both playing like shutdown cornerbacks, they should be able to put the clamps on the Ravens’ new found explosive offense. They’ll certainly find it a lot tougher to move the ball in Philadelphia against the Eagles than they did at home against a Bengals team missing two key cornerbacks and their top pass rusher.

As for the Ravens’ defense, they’re still good, but they did allow 322 yards of offense to the Bengals, which is a cause for concern. Terrell Suggs is out and Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding, two key parts of their run defense last year, are gone. Young players have to play more than they’re used to and they didn’t play very well against the Bengals. On top of that, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are aging. Unless the Eagles get killed in the turnover battle like they did so many times last year, they should be able to win this game at home and, as I mentioned earlier, turnover differentials can be very inconsistent on a year to year basis.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts: Week 2 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Chicago. Chicago is also one of my underrated teams. In fact, I think they might be the best team in football. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.

There’s no shame in losing to the Bears in Chicago, even in blowout fashion. That doesn’t mean the Colts are going to have a terrible season. They’ll probably still get at least the 6 wins the Panthers got last year. Andrew Luck is the real deal; he just had a very tough test to start his career. They won’t make the playoffs or anything and Dwight Freeney is expected out for this contest, but, at the very least they’re not worse than the Vikings, who needed a late comeback to even beat the Jaguars in Minnesota. In Indianapolis, this line should be about -3 or -4 (3 points for home field advantage. Instead it’s +1.5. Ordinarily, I would think this could be a trap line, but the action is pretty equal on both sides. There’s just considerable line value with the Colts.

The Vikings don’t really deserve to be road dogs over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finished with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Vikings aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 1.5, which would translate to -7.5 in Minnesota. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.

On top of that, this could be a seen as a breather contest for the Vikings, seeing as they have to go home and play the 49ers next week. The trend isn’t as strong as it is for sandwich games (favorites before AND after being dogs), but favorites before being dogs are 90-109 ATS since 2010 and 173-223 ATS since 2008. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams are typically flatter in easier games before tougher games.

This is one of my favorite plays of the week. I’m pretty confident that Luck will get his first NFL win here at home against a Minnesota defense that just made Blaine Gabbert look like a functional NFL quarterback. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread +1.5 (-110) and one on the money line at +110, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games account for about 2% of games in the NFL, so it’s just not worth the extra +20 to protection against a 1 point Minnesota win.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)

Indianapolis Colts 27 Minnesota Vikings 20 Upset Pick +110 5 units

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bengals, Browns

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Cincinnati got blown out last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Baltimore, so everyone seems to be giving them a bit of a pass. However, I have Baltimore as one of my overrated teams, so we have an overrated team in Cincinnati remaining overrated because people are overrating their week 1 strength of opponent. Baltimore seems to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, failed to beat a single playoff team last year, going 0-8 in such games and if Baltimore makes the playoffs this year, his record would be 0-9 through his first season and a game against playoff teams. Fortunately, Cleveland is almost definitely not a playoff team. The Bengals also have suffered several major injuries. Leon Hall, predictably, is not 100% back from a torn Achilles suffered about 10 months ago and was uncharacteristically torched in the Baltimore game. They also put two starters on the offensive line, Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton, on IR. On top of that, top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap and two of their cornerbacks, Jason Allen and Dre Kirkpatrick, missed last week and could miss again this week.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

This team could easily lose 10 or more games this season. This isn’t some new prediction. I made it before the season and I’m sticking with it. Given that, they don’t deserve to be favorites of more than 6 against any one, not even the Browns, who I think are the league’s worst team, especially now without Joe Haden, their top defensive players. Teams that finish with 6 wins or fewer cover at roughly a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. This is a very powerful trend if you can accurately predict how teams will finish.

On top of that, there are other situational trends in play, ones that don’t take any forecasting. The Bengals are coming off a huge loss on MNF, losing by 31 on MNF. Teams that do this are typically flat the following week. It makes sense. Not only are you on a short week, but you are coming off a deflating loss. Since 2002, teams are 14-23 ATS coming off losses of 21+ on MNF, 3-12 ATS if they are favored the next week, as Cincinnati is.

On top of that, this is what’s known as a sandwich game. After this, the Bengals travel to Washington, where they will almost certainly be underdogs. Teams that are favorites before and after being underdogs are 37-54 ATS since 2010. This makes sense. Teams can’t bring the same level of intensity every week in the NFL. It just doesn’t happen; that’s why upsets happen. Teams typically are flatter than normal coming off a tough game and going into a tough game. The Bengals may see this is an easy breather and a chance to get their confidence back, which is not the right way to approach any game in the NFL. Anyone can lose at any time.

Meanwhile, the Bengals tend to fall flat as favorites anyway, going 5-13 ATS in this situation since 2007. One trend that works in the Browns’ favor, teams are 48-30 ATS after a loss of 3 or fewer at home as underdogs since 2002. This makes some sense. It seems to give confidence to teams if they are able to hang close in a game where they were expected to get blown out at home, but it doesn’t have the same adjusting affect on the spread that an actual win would produce.

I also believe this is what’s called a trap line. Trap lines are when odds makers want the public to bet one way or another so they make a “too good to be true” line. Typically when odds makers want you to do something, it’s a good idea not to do it. The two signs of a trap line are a suspiciously low line and a line that drops even though the majority of the public is betting it. Right now, about 75% of the money is on Cincinnati, yet the line has dropped from -7.5 when it opened (already suspiciously low) to -7 with juice. They really want us to bet Cincinnati. The odds makers seem to agree that Cincinnati is overrated and they know no one is going to want to bet the Browns as mere touchdown underdogs. They’re not a bad group of guys to have agree with you. They’re not stupid. That’s why they make money every single year.

Even still, there is line value here. Cincinnati is still being overrated by the odds makers even with the “too good to be true line.” Cincinnati is not the type of team that deserves to be favored by more than a touchdown over anyone. I think at the end of the year, we’ll wonder why this wasn’t something like Cincinnati -4 (3 points for home field advantage). Besides, all the trends are in Cleveland’s favor. I would make this my pick of the week, but Cleveland is really terrible, so instead, this will just be a significant bet. Brandon Weeden probably won’t be quite as bad as he was last week now that he has one start under his belt. I’m also picking Cincinnati to win outright here at home, but this is going to be a close, ugly, and unwatchable game, unless you have money on it, which I recommend you do.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Cincinnati Bengals 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7 (-115) 4 units

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

This is the game of the week right here. I’ve been high on the Bears all offseason, naming them as one of my underrated teams. In fact, I thought they were the 2nd best team in the NFC, but couldn’t have them winning the division because the Packers were just so good. Well, the Packers aren’t looking so good anymore. Aaron Rodgers has, believe it or not, dropped 3 of his last 4 starts, including two straight at home.

It hasn’t really been his fault. His defense is way too reliant on turnovers and can’t stop anyone without them. In their last 3 games where they failed to force a turnover, they’ve lost. It’s very tough to predict turnover totals on a yearly basis. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers in their next season. The Packers can’t expect to force the 38 turnovers they did last year. They’ll have to get better defensively.

I thought the addition of 3 key contributors through the draft and potential bounce back years from BJ Raji and Tramon Williams would allow this team to bounce back; after all Dom Caper is one of the better defensive coordinators in the game and they had the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense in 2010, but I guess not. They made Alex Smith look like Joe Montana in the opener, blowing numerous coverages, failing to stuff the run, and only pressuring Smith on 7 dropbacks, fewest in the NFL last week. If they can’t improve defensively, their offense won’t be able to get onto the field to do what they do best and the Packers could fairly well be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. They can’t afford to go down 0-2 at home to start the season.

Unfortunately, things don’t get any easier here for the Packers. The Bears might be the best team in the NFL and if they aren’t, they are certainly up there. They can compete with the Packers, at the very least. They blew out an underrated Colts team last week to start this season. In 2010, they went 11-5 and made it to the NFC Championship game. In 2011, they started out 7-3 before injuries struck to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Cutler and Forte are back. Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are in and both had great debuts. And their offensive line doesn’t look as overmatched as they did under Mike Martz, allowing Cutler to be pressured on just 11 of 37 drop backs. And then, of course, they still have one of the league’s better defenses.

The Bears were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. The idea was to bet them until I was proven wrong or the odds makers caught up. The good news is that the odds makers don’t seem to have caught up, chalking last week’s win up to their strength of opponent, even though I think the Colts are also underrated. This line is -6 in Lambeau. At the very least, given the way the Packers played last week, this line should be -3, to indicate these teams are about even, so there’s line value here. And don’t worry about betting against Aaron Rodgers after a loss. He’s just 4-5 ATS in his career as a favorite after losing as a favorite. Besides, while I expect the Packers to come out with incredible urgency to try to avoid an 0-2 start, I expect the Bears to come out with a similar level of urgency in a statement game and a chance to put the Packers at a huge disadvantage early.

Jay Cutler and company should be able to move the ball with ease against this Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers and company should be able to do the same against the Bears’ defense, as good as they are, because Rodgers has proven that you can’t really stop him. You can just limit him. Even last week, he was 30 of 44 for 303 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick against the 49ers’ vaunted defense. That’s not a bad week statistically. The Packers will move the ball here. However, the Bears are a much more well rounded team, like the 49ers were last week. One injury of note for the Packers, Greg Jennings is unlikely to play. The Packers have a deep receiving corps, so that loss might not be huge, but he is their #1 receiver so his absence can’t be ignored.

I’m taking the Bears to win and cover as 6 point underdogs, though I’m a lot more confident about the latter than the former. This figures to be an evenly matched game, so even if the Bears do lose, it probably won’t be by very much. This is a tight rivalry historically. Before 2 contests last year, the last 6 matchups between these two have been decided by 7 points or less. What happened last year? Well, in their 1st matchup, the Bears lost by 10, but should have lost by 3 if not for a phantom penalty bringing back a Devin Hester return for a touchdown. I can only assume the refs had Packers -4 in that one. In their 2nd matchup, Cutler and Forte were both out, but the Bears still managed to keep it within 14 even though the Packers were 13-1 heading into that contest and the Bears had lost their 2 best offensive players and 4 straight. That says a lot about how seriously they take this rivalry, as do the Packers, so this one will be close either way most likely, now that the two sides are more evenly matched.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Chicago covers)

Chicago Bears 31 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +240

Pick against spread: Chicago +6 (-105) 4 units

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Week 1 NFL Pick Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 1 Results

ATS: 8-8 -4 units/-$655

SU: 9-7

Upset Picks: 3-4 -$250

Survivor: 1-0 (HOU)

Public Results*: 7-9 -6 units

2012 results to date

N/A yet

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

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