2012 Week 4 NFL Picks

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Texans, Titans

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (3-0)

In my power rankings this week, I poked holes in pretty much every other team in the league. I can’t do that with the Texans. They are without a flaw. Winning in Denver in the high altitude against a talented team and a no huddle offense is damn impressive and 3 games into the season, this is the Super Bowl favorite and the most complete team in the league.

The only two quasi-holes you can poke in this team are these. Can they stay healthy? And can Matt Schaub win it all on his first career trip to the postseason? Neither of those things are going to be factors this week. It’s not the playoffs yet and the only injury they have is depth receiver Lestar Jean, who is out after having knee surgery. All of the key players are still healthy.

As for the Titans, last week, they looked much more like the Titan team I put in the playoffs at the beginning of the season. Jake Locker looked much more comfortable with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt at full strength, going 29 of 42 for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, although part of that might be Detroit’s crappy secondary. The Titans do rank 18th in yards per play differential, but I’m not putting them back in the playoffs or anything yet.

Chris Johnson is still hilariously bad, even against the type of poor run defense he would have gashed last season, and the young defense is still missing Cortland Finnegan and Colin McCarthy. The latter is expected back from injury sometime soon, but he won’t play in this one. Also possibly not playing in this one is Kenny Britt, who hasn’t practiced all week with an ankle problem. That obviously hurts Locker as he faces the toughest defense he’s played yet.

The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -9 in favor of the Texans. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. We’re getting 3 points of line value with the Titans and that doesn’t even take into account that Tennessee looked much better last week. This line was also -10 a week ago when the Titans looked like one of the worst teams in the league. I don’t know why it would shift 2 points in the other direction now that the Titans look passable, even though Houston’s win was impressive.

That being said, the Titans are in a tough situation this week. Dogs coming off a close (1-3 points) win as home dogs are 19-31 ATS since 2002. Teams tend not to be focused after a close, emotional upset win at home, which makes sense. Also Britt’s possible and likely absence does hurt them a lot. It’s one of the reasons, I believe, that they looked so much better last week, along with the return of Nate Washington to full strength.

I’m really torn on this one. There’s a reason I saved it for last. Houston is the best team in the league, but as we saw with the 49ers last week, teams that get anointed as the best team in the league by the media tend to fall flat the next week. That happened with the Patriots after week 1 too. The Titans are also coming off their best performance yet and are healthier than they’ve been all season, even with Britt possibly out. We also get line value with the Titans and the chance to fade the public.

However, Tennessee is in a tough spot and Britt’s absence does matter a lot with Locker facing almost definitely the toughest defense he’s ever faced as a starter. Also, while they looked much better last week, they still only managed to win by 3 and their defense once again looked really bad. And let’s not forget, in their first 2 games, they weren’t competitive at all.

I was going to just take the points and fade the public because of how well underdogs are doing this year (29-18 ATS) and how poorly the public is doing this year. Road dogs of 10+ and home dogs of 7+ are a combined 4-2 ATS this year. However, those two losses were both against the Texans, who really look like the real deal, unlike San Francisco and New England when they were anointed. The Texans have also covered in another bad situation this year, as road favorites (6-13 ATS this year) and against no slouch of a team, playing the Broncos in Denver. I’m not betting against them.

Public lean: Houston (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): TEN 5 HOU 5

Final Update: Sharps are also torn as I am and as afraid of this game as I am. The fact that so few sharps are picking Tennessee (sharps tend to love dogs and big dogs especially) makes me feel a little bit more confident in Houston, who is probably the best team in the league, but if I did 0 unit picks, this would be one of them.

Houston Texans 31 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Houston -12 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 4 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

Looks like the Chargers aren’t over their early season woes. They beat two crappy teams in week 1 and 2, but much like last year, they got destroyed once they played a real opponent. Last year they started 4-1, beating crappy teams, most of them by small margins, but lost 6 straight once the schedule got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-8 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era and they’re just 3-9 ATS on the road during that time period.

This week, they are road favorites in Kansas City. Road favorites are just 6-13 ATS this year and 7-12 straight up, but I think that might be a fluke and that it probably had something to do with the replacement refs. If the replacement refs were still being used, I think Kansas City would have a big trend on this side, but they aren’t.

The Chargers were road favorites in Oakland week 1 and won, proving to be an exception to what was the rule in the first 3 weeks of the season, but they barely did it despite Oakland losing their long snapper and messing up 3 separate punts, which the Chargers managed to turn into just 9 points. The Chiefs are a comparable team to the Raiders, maybe a little better. The Chiefs are also in a good situation coming off a close road win. Dogs coming off a close win as road dogs are 19-12 ATS since 2002.

This would be a strong lean if we still had replacement refs, but I like the Chiefs this week. The Chargers are not to be trusted in September, especially on the road and especially as favorites. It just wouldn’t an NFL season if people weren’t calling for Norv Turner’s job at the end of September and given what happened last week, they would almost definitely be doing so if the Chargers lost year in Kansas City. The Chiefs seem to have gotten their act together after a rough start to the season, much like they did last year, and this game should resemble the Chiefs’ close win over the Chargers in Kansas City last year.

On top of that, the public is betting San Diego pretty heavily and I like to fade the public when I can. One note, rather than putting 2 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’ll put all 3 on the money line. 1 point games happen about 2% of the time and it’s not worth the extra 10 cents for protection against something that has a 1% chance of hurting me.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): KC 12 SD 8

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +100 3 units

Pick against spread: Kansas City +1 (-110) 0 units

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Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Commanders

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

The Buccaneers are one of the few teams I’ve had as underrated before the season that’s actually become overrated 3 weeks into it. The Buccaneers have hung tough, on the scoreboard, with the Giants and Cowboys and beat the Panthers, but they’re not playing that well. They rank dead last in the league in yards per play differential, with a -2.0. No other team has one worse than -1.0. They’ve had a tough schedule, but they’ve looked completely inept on both sides of the ball. They’re winning the turnover battle (+4), but you can’t rely on that going forward. They’ve also lost starting defensive end Adrian Clayborn for the season.

Speaking of yards per play differential, the Redskins are that team with the -1.0, ranking 31st only ahead of Tampa Bay. Robert Griffin is the real deal, but whatever little help he had to begin with is getting hurt. Brian Orakpo’s and Adam Carriker’s absence on defense has led to them getting torched defensively by the Rams and the Bengals in the last two games and Trent Williams’ and Pierre Garcon’s injuries have left Griffin running for his life and without his top receiver.

Orakpo and Carriker are done for the year and both Williams and Garcon are expected to miss this week. However, the good news for the Redskins is that the Buccaneers pass defense is atrocious. They were the league’s 31st ranked pass defense last year and they rank 29th this year. Offseason additions of Eric Wright and Mark Barron haven’t really helped, and injuries have destroyed their pass rush.

Already missing Da’Quan Bowers likely for the season, the Buccaneers lost Adrian Clayborn for the year last week. Michael Bennett and Gerald McCoy can get the quarterback on that defensive line, but that’s it. Taking Clayborn’s place this week will be Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, a career journeyman who has never done anything of note. Even though Griffin’s offensive line is horrendous, he should still be able to buy himself enough time with his mobility to get the ball to his receivers. Even without Garcon, this group of receivers should have an advantage against Tampa Bay’s defensive backs. Like they have in every game, the Redskins, who rank 1st in the league in scoring, should light up the scoreboard this week.

However, like they have in every game, the Redskins will struggle to play defense. They rank 30th in the league, allowing 33.7 points per game, .7 more than they score, and dead last in opponent’s yards per play, despite playing Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford in the last 2 weeks. Fortunately, the Buccaneers rank dead last in yards per play so they don’t have the personnel to take advantage of this easy matchup.

At the end of the day, the Buccaneers are terrible on both sides of the ball, while the Redskins struggle defensively, but can score points because Robert Griffin is incredibly talented, even with lack of help. I’ve gone into detail about these two teams’ yards per play differentials. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 1 yard per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -3.5 in favor of the Redskins. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. 6 points of line value is nothing to sneeze at. I hate taking publicly backed dogs, especially when there are no applicable trends, but it’s a small play on the Redskins in this one.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): TB 11 WAS 3

Final update: Only game I really disagree with the sharps on (I side with the sharps on 12 of 15 this week, which makes me feel really confident). I don’t think much of Tampa Bay and at least Washington has a quarterback. I’ll go against the sharps here.

Washington Redskins 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Washington +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Week 4 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys ended last season by getting destroyed defensively by, among others, the New York Giants. They lost 4 of their last 5 to blow the division and finish at 8-8, while they watched the Giants go on to eventually hoist the Super Bowl trophy. Given that, it’s no surprise that they spent as many resources as they did on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. It really seems to have paid off as they rank 1st in the league in yards per play allowed. Guys like Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne are playing really well, while several youngsters have stepped up.

Though they’ve faced the Seahawks and Buccaneers in 2 of their 3 games, they also did a solid job defensively on the Giants in the opener, holding them to 5.0 yards per play and 17 points. What’s even more impressive is that they’re doing this without Jay Ratliff, one of their best defensive players. He’s not expected to be able to go in this one either, but they might not need him much if they keep playing like they have.

While their defense has been excellent, their offense has been surprisingly middle of the pack. They’re normally one of the better offensive teams in the league and if they can get it together offensively and the defense continues to play well, they’re going to be a scary team. The biggest reason for their offensive issues is how many penalties they’ve committed. They lead the league with 22 offensive penalties. What’s even more concerning is that these penalties are mostly simple procedural penalties. I’d say they should be able to turn it around, but this isn’t a new issue for them. They were the 5th most penalized team in the league last year. Still, I don’t expect it to be THIS bad all year for them so there’s some room for improvement offensively and even with their offensive issues, they rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank right in the middle of the pack with an even yards per play differential. Their defense is also very good, as it normally is, but the offense is really sputtering. They had a huge performance week 1 against the lowly Colts, but they’ve struggled in the last two weeks against the Packers and the Rams. This was a top-5 offense last year before injuries struck so they should improve things eventually. They do have talent offensively; they’re just not playing up to it. Facing a tough defense this week though, this might not be the week to turn things around, especially with Matt Forte questionable.

I’ve gone into detail about these two teams’ yards per play differentials. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 1.3 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -11.5 in favor of the Cowboys. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. 8 points of line value is nothing to sneeze at. On top of that, the Bears are a public underdog and as much as I love the fade the public, I love to fade public underdogs even more.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CHI 7 DAL 3

Update: Sharps are not only afraid to bet this game, but they pick Chicago when they do. Anthony Spencer is expected to be out for the Cowboys, while Matt Forte is expected to play for the Bears. I’m dropping a unit.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against spread: Dallas -3.5 (+100) 1 unit

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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: Week 4 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-3) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Saints and Packers are a combined 1-5 three weeks in the season. Raise your hand if you saw that coming. I strangely see no hands. This is a huge, must win game for both teams, and given that we should expect huge performances from both quarterbacks. You know it’s really not sitting well with both of these quarterbacks that they are where they are right now. Aaron Rodgers has lost more games than he did all last regular season and Brees has lost the same amount.

Given that, it’s pretty tough to know what to expect from this game. However, I do think it’s more likely than Aaron Rodgers and company has a huge offensive game than Drew Brees and company. For one, Brees’ struggles are explainable. He’s without Head Coach Sean Payton and he looks eerily similar to the quarterback he was in San Diego, before his injury of course, and before meeting up with Sean Payton. Aaron Rodgers’ struggles are less explainable. Greg Jennings’ hasn’t been 100% so that may have something to do with it, but he should be healthier in this one.

More likely, it’s just a fluke and what better way to snap out of your slump than to face New Orleans’ 30th ranked passing defense which just made Matt Cassel look passable. They also struggle against the run, which is why they rank tied for 30th in the league in yards per play allowed. They just let Jamaal Charles go off on them and they rank 31st against the run, so the Packers will be able to establish Cedric Benson. Another possible explanation for Rodgers’ struggles is just the strength of schedule, playing San Francisco, Chicago, and Seattle all of whom have great defenses. The Saints have far from one, so expect a vintage Rodgers performance.

I’m not as sure that we’re getting a vintage Brees performance. Green Bay’s defense has actually been pretty solid this year after that opening day embarrassing, but strength of schedule is obviously a factor there. Alex Smith, Jay Cutler (on a Thursday Night), and Russell Wilson are much of a next, at least not compared to Drew Brees, but there’s no guarantee he’ll ever be able to overcome the loss of Payton and look like his 2009-2011 self. Ordinarily, I would just grab the points, especially since it’s a big line, because Drew Brees is 30-20 ATS as a dog, but this is obviously a very different circumstance. There’s no public lean either way so I’ll just take the hosts for a very small play.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New Orleans covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): NO 5 GB 2

Update: Sharps agree with me they have no clue what to think of this game. Only 7 of the sharps have this game in their top 5, least of any game. Part of me likes the Packers to bounce back much more than the Saints. Part of me just wants to grab the point, fade the public, and go with the slight sharps lean. I’m sticking with my original pick, but if I did 0 unit picks, this would be one of them.

Green Bay Packers 34 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets: Week 4 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)

Remember how the Jets’ chance to make the playoffs was on the conservative offense, good defense, don’t make mistakes, easy schedule model? Yeah, that doesn’t work if you can’t play good defense and without Darrelle Revis, they’re going to have a hard time doing so many of the things they normally do on defense. They also don’t run the ball particularly well with mediocre back Shonn Greene now ceding carries to an unproven Bilal Powell and Mark Sanchez is as he’s always been.

Revis’ injury is huge. It can’t be understated. Revis’ presence as someone who can shut down one side of the field is huge because it allows the Jets to use all sorts of exotic blitz packages. They already rank just 27th in the league in pass rush efficiency so I don’t expect them to get very much pressure at all on Alex Smith behind an improved San Francisco offensive line. Calvin Pace looks pretty done, Aaron Maybin is proving last year was a fluke, and rookie Quinton Coples hasn’t done anything yet.

Smith has proven that if you give him time, he can move the chains through the air and with Kyle Wilson and Ellis Lankster playing significant roles in the secondary, he should be able to do that with some ease this week. He’ll be helped by what should be a strong game from Frank Gore as the Jets, normally a good run defense, rank just 26th against the run in this early season.

So San Francisco’s offense vs. the Jets’ defense, advantage San Francisco, Jets’ offense versus 49ers’ defense, well let’s just say it won’t be pretty. The Vikings moved the ball well on the 49ers’ defense last week, but the Vikings are an underrated bunch and San Francisco was in an obvious let down situation so that doesn’t surprise me that much. This is still the same defense that shut down the Packers and Lions in their first 2 games and the same defense that ranked 2nd in opponent’s scoring last year. It’s arguable that their defense is even better this year because they’re not as reliant on forcing turnovers.

Well coached teams normally rebound off of upset losses. There isn’t much data with the 49ers in that situation because they’ve only had one upset loss (two if you count the NFC Championship game last year), but the 49ers have covered easily in both instances. They’re all 4-0 ATS off a loss in the Harbaugh era. Expect that to continue into the future and to play a factor this week. The Jets’ offense doesn’t have much of a chance against a pissed off 49ers defense and the Revis injury destroys so much of what they do defensively.

There aren’t any true trends in play here, other than the Harbaugh off a loss one, but the 49ers should win this one with ease. On paper, the Jets don’t even come close to matching up with the 49ers without Revis. Four things do worry me. One, this is a 1 PM ET time start for the 49ers on the East Coast, which is normally a disadvantage. However, the 49ers were a perfect 4-0 in this situation last year and since they had a road game last week, they haven’t returned to San Francisco. Harbaugh has them practicing in Youngstown, Ohio in the East Coast time zone so there’s not going to be much of an issue of jetlag for them.

The 2nd reason is that the Jets are a home dog and home dogs are 13-6 ATS and 12-7 SU this year, though I think that’s probably a fluke and probably had something to do with the replacement refs. The third reason is just that the public is betting the 49ers heavily and the public is just 4-12 on heavy leans this year. The fourth reason is that the media has written the Jets off this week, so that’s provided a 2-1 team with plenty of bulletin board material. Also the general media is normally wrong, with goes right along with the public normally being wrong. Still, I like the 49ers. It’s not a huge play or anything, but they should be the right side.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): SF 11 NYJ 7

Update: Feeling a little bit more confident now that I know the sharps like San Francisco too. This one had me nervous because it felt like a trap line, but I’m sticking with the 2 units.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -4.5 (-110) 2 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)

Andy Dalton has done a great job of beating up on bad defenses in the last couple of weeks, completing 43 of 58 for 646 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions against Washington and Cleveland. He did that last year as well as he was 9-0 against non-playoff teams, but assuming Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs and Baltimore makes it, he has yet to beat a single playoff team in his career (0-9). It should be a concern for the Bengals.

However, it shouldn’t be much of a concern this week because Jacksonville isn’t a playoff team either. Their defense isn’t very good and while it was better last week with their secondary healthier, they are still missing Daryl Smith, arguably their best defensive player. The other candidate for their best defensive player is Jeremy Mincey, at least he’s supposed to be. He’s managed just 7 total quarterback pressures on 112 pass rush snaps and has yet to get a sack. He’s a one year wonder because he came out of nowhere last year, so it’s a concern. Andy Dalton and company should have no problem moving the ball against them.

The other concern for the Bengals is their defense. They’ve been torched by every quarterback they’ve faced, even Brandon Weeden, and they rank tied for 30th allowing 34.0 points per game. They also rank 30th in yards per play allowed. While the Jaguars are getting healthier defensively, the Bengals aren’t really. They’ve gotten top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap back and cornerback Jason Allen returned last week too, but he reinjured himself and is unlikely to play in this one.

They’ve also lost starting linebacker Thomas Howard for the season, they’re still without 1st round pick Dre Kirkpatrick, and #1 cornerback Leon Hall is unlikely to play. Hall didn’t play last week either. He’s dealing with leg problems on the same side that he tore his Achilles just 10 months ago. It’s definitely possible he came back too soon. Without Allen, Hall, and Kirkpatrick, the Bengals will rely on a trio of Nate Clements, Terence Newman, and Adam Jones at cornerback, which would have been fine if this was 2006, but it’s not. They don’t have good safeties either so Blaine Gabbert should be able to move the ball on this 28th ranked pass defense.

The one positive defensively for the Bengals last week was their pass rush. Carlos Dunlap returned and he and Michael Johnson combined for 14 total pressures, including 4 sacks. Dunlap is a great pass rusher, but that game by Johnson was inconsistent with what he normally does so it’s very likely that will be by far the best game of his season. It definitely helped that they were facing Washington’s offensive line, which struggles to begin with and then lost stud left tackle Trent Williams early in the game. The Jaguars’ offensive line ranks dead last in pass block efficiency, but they return 2 starters, left guard Eben Britton and right tackle Cameron Bradfield, from injury in this one, which should help. If Gabbert can get time, he should be able to move the ball on this pathetic secondary. He’ll also be aided by what should be a strong performance from Maurice Jones-Drew because the Bengals rank dead last against the run.

If you’re reading the above analysis and thinking, these two teams aren’t that unevenly matched, you’re definitely on to something. The difference between Cincinnati’s and Jacksonville’s yards per play differential is .6. An old gambling formula tells you to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. That suggests that this line should be -1 in favor of the Bengals, instead of -2.5, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that these two teams are going in opposite directions injury wise, so there’s a little bit of line value with the host here.

This was a tough one. On one hand, Andy Dalton has never lost to a non-playoff team in his career going 11-0 if you assume Washington and Cleveland miss the playoffs. Jacksonville is in that bunch. On the other hand, their defense is a mess and they’ve won their last 2 games by just 7 points apiece, including a home contest against the lowly Browns. There’s some line value with the host and the public, by the way, is pounding the Bengals. The public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year and Cincinnati +2.5 here is one of the heaviest leans I’ve seen all year. It has all the making of a trap line.

The general public is sitting at home thinking, “Cincinnati +2.5? All they need to do is beat the Jaguars by 3? Free money.” When in reality, Cincinnati’s defense is so bad that they can lose to anyone at any time, especially on the road. Home dogs are also 13-6 ATS this year and 12-7 SU, though that might have had something to do with the replacement refs. If we had replacement refs in this one, it would be a significant bet, but instead, it’s a smaller bet just to fade the public on a heavy lean. It’s also worth noting the Bengals are just 5-13 ATS as favorites since 2007.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CIN 8 JAC 11

Update: Nate Clements is also expected out for the Bengals leaving them with Terence Newman, Adam Jones, and recently called up from the practice squad Chris Lewis-Harris. Also, I’m glad to see the sharps like Jacksonville as well. I’m not adding any more units because Jacksonville sucks, but I’m feeling more confident now.

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Week 4 NFL pick

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New England Patriots (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Patriots are under .500 for the first time since week 1 2003, snapping an NFL record for consecutive weeks under .500. Of course, they went on to go 14-2 that year and win the Super Bowl. The Patriots also haven’t lost 3 straight since 2002, the last time they missed the playoffs, so they’ll put that streak on the line as well tonight. Do I think they snap that streak as well? Well, anything’s possible, but I’m not going to bet it.

This is the exact situation the Patriots thrive in. Tom Brady is 25-12 ATS off a loss in his career (including a cover last week, which was not a BS cover because the Patriots led ATS the entire night), and 10-1 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points), which was also a situation in play last week. I try to watch as little of the talking heads on television as I possibly can, but whenever it’s been unavoidable (like during the Thursday Night telecast this week), one of the main topics was “how can the Patriots get it together?” You know the Patriots are using that as bulletin board material, just like their 1-2 record.

Plus, I also find that question pretty stupid. It’s not like the Patriots are in disarray or anything. They’ve lost 2 straight games by a combined 2 points to two teams that are a combined 6-1. Extra motivated by all the doubt and facing an easier team, the Patriots should bounce back this week. They’ve gotten off to slow starts in their last 2 years, starting 1-1 in 2010 and 2-1 and 5-3 last year, before eventually going on 13-1 and 8-0 runs respectively, 13-2 and 10-1 if you include playoffs. This is the most consistent franchise in the NFL over the last decade and as weird as this season has been, I think the weirdest thing that could happen would be this team falling to 1-3 against an old punching bag and looking poised to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2002, especially since Tom Brady isn’t even playing badly or anything (66.9% completion, 7.5 YPA, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception).

Speaking of the old punching bag Bills, I call them that because they’re not really a punching bag any more. They stand at 2-1 and they have a solid defense, a solid running game, a fantastic offensive line, and a quarterback who can move the chains if you give him time. However, they’re really built to win games against bad teams where they can establish their game plan.

Considering their game plans starts with a strong defense that allows their conservative offense to function, this week could be a rude awakening for them. Tom Brady is playing just fine and just scored 29 points on the Ravens, even in a loss. They will probably not be able to run as much as they normally do (and both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are questionable), which will put more pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick than you would like, bad news for a quarterback who leads the league in interceptions over the last calendar year.

The one matchup concern I have is how good Buffalo’s offensive line is. They rank 1st in the league in pass block efficiency, which is no fluke because they did the same thing last year. The Patriots secondary is not very good and if you give him time, any quarterback can tear it up, at least in theory. I say in theory because, while Fitzpatrick had a great game the first time these two met last year (27 of 40 for 369 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions), he really struggled in their next meeting, going 29 of 46 for 307 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The Patriots are great at game planning so it’s possible they just figured out Chan Gailey’s scheme and made Fitzpatrick look like the system quarterback he is.

The Bills might not be a punching bag any more, but their 3 games have come against very easy opponents. In fact, you can argue that all 3 teams they’ve played are worse than each of the 3 teams the Patriots have played (Tennessee/NY Jets is debatable). The pissed off Patriots should be able to make them look like a punching bag this week. The only reason this isn’t a pick of the week is because the public is pounding the Patriots (though the line movement is going in the right direction) and the public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year. Also home dogs are 13-6 ATS this season, including 12-7 straight up, but I think that had more to do with the replacement refs than anything. I also don’t like that I don’t have field goal protection because there could be a backdoor cover, but I expect the Patriots to come out on fire and put the Bills away early to shut up their critics. Them starting 1-3 would just be too weird.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): BUF 6 NE 10

Update: This was feeling like a bit of a trap line, so I’m glad to see the sharps like New England too. I’m not dropping any units.

New England Patriots 34 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5 (-110) 3 units

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants

New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

Wow, the public has really soured on Philadelphia. A week ago they were heavily bet as road favorites and now one week later, the public is pounding the Giants in this one with the Eagles being just 1 point favorites at home. Dogs after losing as road favorites are 23-11 ATS since 2008. I know the Eagles aren’t technically dogs, but being 1 point home favorites and having the public betting heavily against you is about as close to being dogs as you can be. By the way, when you add in teams that were 1 point favorites to that aforementioned stat, it’s 24-12, so not much difference. Besides, the public is getting killed this year, especially on bets like this, as the public is 4-12 on heavy leans, which is what this is in favor of the Giants. I like to fade heavy leans as much as I can.

The Eagles have gotten killed with turnovers in their first 3 games, with a league worst -6 turnover ratio. However, that tends to even out on a week to week basis. Going back to 2002, looking at teams with every turnover differential from -5 to +5 in a single game, they all average a turnover differential of about +0 in their next game. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and they rank 4th in the league in yards per play differential, a much more consistent stat. I expect them to eventually get their act together and finish as one of the best teams in the league.

Speaking of yards per play differential, Philadelphia’s yards per play differential is 1 yard better than New York’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” That suggests that Philadelphia should actually be favored by 9.5 points. It’s more accurate to use that a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting. The Eagles’ only glaring flaw so far has been ball security, but the Giants have an equally glaring flaw and it’s their dead last ranked pass defense. Pass defense is not as inconsistent on a week to week basis as turnovers are, so the Eagles should be able to take advantage, especially now that they’re healthy in the receiving corps with Jeremy Maclin returning.

Besides, this is the type of atmosphere the Eagles thrive in. As dogs or favorites of 1, the Eagles are 49-30 ATS since 1999, which was when Andy Reid took over. Coming off a loss as a favorite, they’re 23-17 ATS. When you combine those two, they’re 7-3 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite as a dog or favorite of 1. The Giants are in a few situations they normally thrive in as well. They are 33-15 ATS on the road since 2007 and Giants are 41-27 ATS (49-19 SU) in weeks 1-9 since 2004 and they’re coming off 10 days rest. Teams are 109-89 ATS on Sunday off of Thursday Night football. However, they’re also just 1-5 off a win of 28 or more in the Coughlin era and the Eagles have owned this rivalry of late, winning in 7 of their last 8 matchups.

This really feels like the type of game the Eagles are going to win. It’s one of those things that tough to explain in numbers (though I definitely tried), but when you watch enough football you develop a 6th sense for this kind of thing. Everyone is doubting the Eagles, who, the important numbers say are the more talented, while the Giants are in a situation where they can’t play the “nobody believes in us card,” which they might do better than anyone in football. They also zig when you expect them to zag and zag when you expect them to zig and right now, everyone expects them to win. There are things working in both sides’ favor, but it’s still a significant play on the home team.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): PHI 13 NYG 8

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New York Giants 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -1 (-115) 3 units

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Denver Broncos (1-2)

I thought the Raiders were overrated coming into the season and now they’re even more overrated coming off a “surprising” win over the Steelers. Their upset win over the Steelers was not completely shocking given how much the Steelers have sucked over the last year plus on the road. They are -43 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year.

Given that they were missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last weekend, this upset was not shocking. There’s a reason I made it a very small pick even though Pittsburgh had the clear on paper advantage. The Raiders are one of 15 1-2 teams in the NFL right now. Some of them are going to make the playoffs, some of them are going to be terrible. I think this team is one of the latter. Remember, they lost 35-13 to the Dolphins just 2 weeks ago.

Their defense has been exactly as you’d expect from a defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and then who lost their top cornerback and top pass rusher this offseason. Injuries have hammered them on that side of the ball too as linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR.

Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, could also miss this game. Spencer isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Meanwhile, defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are showing their age. They allowed 36 catches on 49 attempts for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and 433 total yards even in a winning effort last week. Yeah, good luck containing Peyton Manning.

The Raiders’ offense has been better and they were able to keep up with the Steelers last week, but I don’t expect that they’ll be able to do that this week. If they allow 31 points this week, they’ll probably lose easily. The Steelers’ defensive effort was pitiful last weekend on the road, missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. The Broncos have been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season and the Raiders will be without Darrius Heyward-Bey, so they’ll really only have one reliable receiver, Denarius Moore. Champ Bailey should be able to shut him down.

While the Raiders are a little overrated, the Broncos are a little underrated. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, talk about being welcomed back to the NFL harshly for Peyton Manning. The Broncos stand at 1-2, but they rank 9th in yards per play differential and they’ve been competitive in all 3 games despite a tough schedule. They should still be very tough to beat at home with their no huddle in the high altitude, despite a loss to a Houston team that might be the best in the league, and make the playoffs propelled by a 6-2 or 7-1 home record.

With a much, much easier matchup and in his 4th game back, Peyton Manning should be able to have by far his best game, and he hasn’t been terrible at all considering the matchups, completing 60.0% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. I just don’t see any way this patchwork Raiders defense has any chance of stopping Manning and his no huddle offense in the high altitude. The Broncos should get into the 30s again and I don’t trust the Raiders to keep up. Despite 34 points last week, they average just 20.3 points play game.

One trend works against the Broncos, favorites off a loss as a dog before being dogs are 51-77 ATS since 2008. Teams tend to see those games as a breather and be flat, but this is a divisional game so it’s less likely they’ll be flat (11-16 ATS in that situation in a divisional game between two non-divisional games). Besides, at 1-2, this is a really important game for them.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): OAK 4 DEN 7

Denver Broncos 31 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Denver -7 (-110) 3 units

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