2012 Week 6 NFL Picks

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3)

There’s still no line posted for this for some reason, even though Robert Griffin is widely expected to play, but I’m going to do this write up anyway. Last week, the line was Washington -2 for this game, so I’d be surprised if we got anything lower than Washington -1 or PK. Given that Minnesota is probably going to be a dog in this one, I’m probably going to make a big play on Minnesota.

Washington, assuming they are favored here, are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs (they go to New York to play the Giants next week). Teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2008. Minnesota, meanwhile, is dogs before being favorites (they host Arizona next week). Teams are 75-44 ATS in that spot since 2011.

We’re also getting line value with the Vikings. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9. If you divide that by .15, you get 6 and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get a “real” line of -3, meaning we’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the Vikings. In fact, I think the Vikings are still underrated.

Unlike surprise teams like St. Louis and Arizona, Minnesota is absolutely for real. They are 5th in the league in yards per play differential. Last year, in the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game. Despite their 3-13 record, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins, despite injuries to several key players.

Now Ponder is healthy and improved, behind a better offensive line. The coaching staff is finally using Percy Harvin properly and he’s emerged as one of the better receivers in the league. Meanwhile, their defense is much improved thanks to the return of Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, as well as young players playing better. After ranking 20th in the league in yards per play allowed last year, their young defense has broken out and now ranks 2nd. They’re for real and this might be one of the last chances we get to get them cheap and with line value.

As long as Washington is favored or this is a pick, this is going to be a significant play on Minnesota. If Minnesota is favored, it’ll be a smaller pick and maybe even a 1 unit pick. For some reason, this line is Minnesota -2.5 in Las Vegas Hilton, which is why the Sharps Lean 12 to 5 in favor of Minnesota, but that would be a 4.5 line movement from last week and I don’t see that happening, especially since Atlanta was just -3 last week. Stay tuned for a final pick. I hope we get an actual line soon.

Public lean: ?

Sharp lean: WAS 12 MIN 5

Final update: This line finally was posted late Saturday Night at even. Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing the public lean on such short notice, so I can’t fade the public, but I still feel confident in Minnesota, even though it will be for only 2 units instead of 3 because we’ve lost line value. This spread moved 2 points from last week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Minnesota PK (-110) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Texans

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0)

I feel pretty much exactly the same way about this one as I did about San Francisco/NY Giants. With the favorite, we are getting line value and the opportunity to fade a public underdog. However, with the dog, we’re getting a team that normally does well in this situation. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differential is .7. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for home field advantage and you get a “real” line of Houston -7.5, meaning we’re getting 4 points of line value with the hosts. In spite of that, Green Bay is a public dog because no one believes they’re as bad as their record. As much as I love betting against the public, I especially love betting against public dogs.

I want to talk about the Packers and their surprising 2-3 record. I don’t think they are as bad as their record would suggest. They’ve had bad luck between the replacement officials and the ChuckStrong train. They could be 4-1 right now. I also don’t think they’re as good as the public thinks and nearly as good as they’ve been over the past couple of years. Their major issues are offensively. Their offensive line is a mess. They can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers really does seem to miss Greg Jennings, who is out once again for this one. Without the offense they had last year, their defense, which actually has held up alright this year, needs to be relied on more and it’s still not an elite unit capable of that.

However, as I mentioned, we’re getting some good spots with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is 10-5 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a dog of 3+. He’s 13-9 ATS off a loss, but if you don’t including 2008, his first year as a starter, he’s 9-4 ATS. He’s also 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog off a loss as a favorite. If you include 2006 and 2007, the Packers’ first two years under Mike McCarthy, they are 5-0 ATS in that situation. Meanwhile, teams are 75-44 ATS as dogs before being favorites and the Packers go to St. Louis next week. I also worry about the impact of the loss of Brian Cushing on the Texans’ defense.

This one is actually tougher for me to pick than San Francisco/NY Giants because we aren’t getting as much line value with the hosts, but we’re also getting fewer points with the road team. There’s less of a chance for a cover if the Packers lose. If I did zero unit picks, this would be one, but I’m once again going with the hosts, like I did in San Francisco/NY Giants, for similar reasons. The combination of betting against a public dog and getting significant line value is too much.

The Packers will give this game everything, but so will the Texans, who won’t be sleewalking 2 weeks in a row. In fact, they were probably sleepwalking last week because they were more focused on this benchmark game than the Jets. Teams are 7-14 ATS before playing the Packers since their Super Bowl victory. Finally, I really believe the Packers will be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. There’s one every year and it’s hard to believe right now that San Francisco, Baltimore, or New England could be that team. A loss here, dropping them to 2-4 in a loaded NFC, would go a long way towards that end result.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharp lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): GB 21 HOU 6

Final update: Sharps like Green Bay, but I’m still not sure.

Houston Texans 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

The Detroit Lions sit at 1-3 and have yet to cover a spread. As someone who called them overrated to start the season and subsequently went against them in each of their first 4 games, I’m pretty happy about that. However, right now I think they might be a little bit underrated. They’ve had a lot of injury issues in the first few games and now with Louis Delmas expected to return, they should have their whole defense back, though you can argue that doesn’t matter a ton because they allowed the 10th most points per game in 2011. In 2012, however, they are allowing the 7th most.

In spite of that and their 1-3 record, they do rank 13th in the league in yards per play differential, including 16th in yards per play allowed. How are they 16th in yards per play allowed, but 26th in points per game allowed? Well, there are some factors. One is that one of their games went to overtime, though if you take out points allowed in overtime, they’re still allowing 27.7 points per game (a .75 point per game improvement), which would rank 25th.

Another major issue they’re having is special teams. They allowed 4 kickoff or punt return touchdowns, which is responsible for 7 points per game. Take those out of the picture and they’re actually allowing 20.7 points per game in regulation which would rank 12th in the NFL. Of course, that’s assuming that their opponents would not have scored at all on any of their drives after the kickoff or punt, which is incorrect.

We also need to look at their per drive defensive statistics. Including extra points, the Lions are allowing about 2.1 points per drive this season, so really, those 4 return touchdowns allowed have cost them a total of 19.6 total points or 4.9 points per game. Still, if you take those out of the picture, they are allowing 22.8 points per game in regulation, which would be 18th. However, they’ve also allowed 2 touchdowns on a pick six and a fumble recovery touchdown, which, using the same method as above, allows an extra 2.4 points per game, which leaves their defense responsible for 20.4 points per game, which would be tied for 11th. This is all very “crude” math. Other things are at play like field position, but you get the idea. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as the points per game would suggest.

Now the question is, will they continue to allow so many non-defensive touchdowns? Well the two touchdowns off of turnovers have gone on just 6 giveaways. That’s one per every 3 turnovers. Average is one per every 12 turnovers and the numbers suggest it’s more luck than skill if your opponent returns a takeaway for 6, depending on things like where on the field the turnover takes place and how many players (on each side) are in the area.

But how about their special teams issues? Well, it’s really tough to say that’s not skill, but it’s probably not as hard of a fix as say fixing a bad pass rush or something. Plus, let’s say they continue to be horrific on special teams and break the NFL record for both kickoff return touchdowns allowed and punt return touchdowns allowed. Did you know how many that would be? 5. Yes, if they allowed 3 kickoff returns for touchdown and 3 punt returns for touchdown the rest of the way, they will hold both records.

Even if they did that, that would still be just .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game, an improvement of .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game over their first 4 games, meaning they can be the worst special teams team ever and still see a 100% improvement in that area going forward. If they simply tie both records of futility, that would be .33 special teams touchdowns allowed per game going forward, a 200% improvement.

So all things the same, they should see a noticeable improvement in points per game allowed going forward. However, all things aren’t really the same. They’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing offenses so far, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Minnesota. In fact, Philadelphia this week might be the toughest offense they’ve faced so far. I think we should expect them to allow somewhere around the 24.2 points per game they allowed last year. They’re still not a good defensive team.

Meanwhile, while they haven’t faced tough offenses, they have faced some tough defenses. With the exception of Tennessee, who really isn’t doing anything right, everyone they’ve faced this year is playing tough defense. Their offense is just 13th in the league in yards per play. Unfortunately for them this week, Philadelphia ranks 7th in opponent’s yards per play (San Francisco is 3rd, Minnesota is 2nd, and St. Louis is 11th), so they have another tough test, but going forward, we should see an offensive improvement.

And that takes me to another underrated team, the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re another team whose yards per play differential is much better than their record and points differential as they rank 8th in this category. The reason for that takes a much shorter explanation than Detroit’s. The issue is, unsurprisingly to anyone following the league this year, their turnover differential. They rank tied for last in the NFC with a turnover differential of -7.

However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to use yards per play differential. It’s not perfect, but it doesn’t take into account something that’s incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis.

So both teams are underrated, but which one do I like? Well, a week ago, I probably would have said Detroit as this line was -6 and Philadelphia’s game all seem to be close, with the exception of that game in Arizona. However, since then, this line has moved to -3.5, a complete overreaction considering the Eagles didn’t look all that bad last week (they covered the spread) and the Lions didn’t play. For the record, the real line here is Philadelphia -5.5, so we’re getting line value with the Eagles now.

The line has also done a good deal of moving this week, as Detroit is a publicly backed underdog, which is driving the line down. I like betting against publicly backed underdogs and getting line value, so it’s a very small play on the hosts. I don’t have a good feel for this one though and it would be a zero unit play if I did those.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): DET 24 PHI 8

Final update: Sharps like Detroit, but I’m still unsure.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Falcons, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (1-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-0)

Matt Ryan is 27-5 in his career at home, including 22-10 ATS and the Falcons are 5-0. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 1-3, coming off a blowout loss to the Broncos (before the bye) and have to travel to Atlanta and play a 1 PM ET game as a West Coast team. The Raiders, in particular, are 6-14 ATS in this situation in their since 2003. The Falcons should easily be able to cover the 9 point spread right?

Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are pounding the Falcons this week. I like to fade the public as much as I can anyway, but we’re also getting some line value with the Raiders. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .6. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field advantage, which would get us to a line of Atlanta -7, meaning we have 2 points of line value with the Raiders.

Why is this? Are the Raiders underrated. I don’t think so. A preseason overrated pick of mine, the Raiders have lived up to the billing and are 27th in terms of yards per play. Instead, it’s the Falcons who appear to be overrated. Despite their 5-0 record, they have a negative yards per play differential. That might sound ridiculous, until you consider that this team could easily be 3-2 if it wasn’t for Carolina’s horrendous end game management, Billy Cundiff’s existence, and Robert Griffin’s injury. A 3-2 with a negative yards per play differential isn’t uncommon. They’ve needed a little bit of luck to stay undefeated.

On top of that, they’ve been very reliant on the turnover, part of the reason why their yards per play differential doesn’t match up with their points differential and their record. The Falcons lead the league with a +10 turnover differential. However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to use yards to help me identify the underrated and overrated teams.

That being said, Atlanta is the pick here. I think the public has it right. Atlanta is a 9 point favorite going into a bye. 7+ favorites going into a bye are 42-17 ATS since 2002 in the regular season. Teams tend to be extra focused going into a bye and crush teams they’re supposed to crush. It’s just not a big play. Atlanta is also my survivor pick of the week on a week where there aren’t a lot of good choices. Teams in that aforementioned situation are a whopping 56-3 straight up. Atlanta isn’t losing here.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: OAK 7 ATL 14

Final update: No change.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Oakland Raiders 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF)

Pick against spread: Atlanta -9 (-110) 2 units

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New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Giants

New York Giants (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-1)

The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the league. At least that’s what yards per play differential says and it’s not even really close. They are gaining 1.9 yards per play more than they are allowing and they rank in the top-5 in both yards per play and yards per play allowed, something no other team in the league can say. In fact, no other team has a yards per play differential higher than 1.0. The Giants, meanwhile, are even at 0.0 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide the difference by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field advantage. Given that, the 49ers should be -15.5 point favorites this week.

If that sounds absolutely ridiculous to you, you’re not alone. That sounds absolutely ridiculous to me too and I love that formula. This is one of those instances where it’s necessary to use a human element. In the last 2 weeks, the 49ers have outgained their opponents by 2.7 yards per play and 3.5 yards per play respectively, translating, not surprisingly, to a 34-0 win and a 45-3 win.

Before the last two weeks, however, the 49ers were outside of the top-5 in yards per play differential. They weren’t bad or anything, but they didn’t look nearly as impressive as they do now. What they’ve done the last 2 weeks is incredibly impressive. I don’t want to take anything away from them. But I don’t think it’s fair to put so much stock into 2 games against crappy teams that a team goes from being good to being miles and miles away better than everyone else and deserving of being 15.5 point home favorites against a worthy opponent. I do think we’re getting some line value with the 49ers, but not 9 points worth. Remember, the 49ers have yet to beat a team who currently has a winning record.

However, the public seems to think we’re getting line value with the Giants and they have made the Giants public underdogs. In spite of that, this line keeps climbing, which is indicative of a trap line. Between the line value and the likely trap line, you’d think this would be an easy pick for me, but it’s not because there are some very good trends on the Giants’ side.

I mentioned how well the 49ers have done the last two weeks. Well, that may have made them overvalued and overconfident. Teams are 18-34 ATS since 1989 after back-to-back wins of 24 or more. The Giants, meanwhile, are in a “nobody believes in us” spot, which they normally do well in. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 38-21 ATS as underdogs.

Since Coughlin took over in 2004, they are also very good on the road and in the 1st half of the season. Since 2004, they are 48-25 ATS on the road, as opposed to just 34-37 ATS at home. As road dogs, they are 31-16 ATS. In that same time period, they are 45-18 straight up and 39-24 ATS from weeks 1-8 and 35-39 straight up and 39-35 ATS after week 8. They’re also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites. Teams tend to be extra focused on that spot, going 73-48 ATS since 2011.

At the end of the day, I’m taking the 49ers because the combination of line value and a potential trap line, while betting against a public underdog is too good to pass on. However, it’s not a big play at all. The Giants thrive in this exact situation (and have 2 other trends in their favor), even if the 49ers do appear to be the significantly better team.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Francisco covers)

Sharps lean: SF 16 NYG 10

Final update: Sharps like San Francisco, but I still can’t put more than a unit on either side.

San Francisco 49ers 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: San Francisco -6.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers

Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2)

From 2003-2010, Peyton Manning was 14-2 ATS as an underdog. This year he is 0-3. Does that mean he’s done or not the same player? Not necessarily. His QB rating is actually 6 points higher than his career average and his completion percentage (66.0%), his YPA (7.7), and his TD/INT ratio (11/3) are all better or equal to his career averages.

This week, we get another chance to bet on him as an underdog, and I’m going to take it for the 3rd straight time (I didn’t take it in Atlanta week 2 because of how good Matt Ryan is at home). I can’t really explain why he’s 0-3 ATS as a dog this year. He’s not playing poorly. His team isn’t either, ranking 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (more on that later). I just expect it to eventually correct itself. Manning on Monday Night Football is another good betting spot, as he’s 10-5 ATS on Monday Nights, even including that week 2 loss to Atlanta.

Now onto that aforementioned 4th ranked yards per play differential, they have the edge by .9 yards per play over San Diego, who is actually negative. Divide that by .15 to get 6 and add 3 points for home field and you get a “real” line of Denver -3. Not only are we getting Peyton Manning as a dog, but we’re getting Peyton Manning as a dog in a situation where he deserves to be the favorite.

I haven’t been impressed at all by San Diego’s “strong start.” Not only are they negative in yards per play differential, they haven’t really beaten anyone. Much like last year, this normally slow starting team (10-13 in weeks 1-6 and 38-20 afterwards from 2007-2010) has a good early record because they’ve beaten up on crappy teams. Is anyone impressed by their wins over Oakland (1-3), Tennessee (2-4), and Kansas City (1-4)? How about their home blowout loss to the Falcons (5-0) or their loss in New Orleans (1-4)? The Broncos, meanwhile, have a brutal schedule (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, Oakland, New England) and have still yet to lose by more than 10.

The Broncos are also have a few trends on their side. Road dogs are 60-40 ATS since 2008 off a loss as road dogs. Meanwhile, teams are 73-48 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as dogs. The Broncos host the Saints next week. The Broncos do have a bye in between, which weakens the trend a bit, but dogs before a bye who will be favorites after the bye are 52-33 ATS since 1989, so there’s still a trend.

I hate betting on publicly backed underdogs, which is what Denver is this week and we’ve lost some line value because this opened at -3, but the large amount of action on Denver has brought it down to -1, which is another bad sign. The odds makers seem to not mind if people bet on Denver, or maybe even they want them to. That being said, I love Denver this week.

The combination of getting points with Peyton Manning and the better team, on Monday Night Football, with powerful situational trends in their favor is too much to pass on. This is a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 18 SD 9

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 San Diego Chargers 17 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-110) 0 units

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Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

The Chiefs are more than a field goal underdog here against a Tampa Bay team that isn’t very good and yet the public still likes Tampa Bay this week. This is because the public sees Kansas City as a joke. As much as I love to fade the public in general, I especially disagree with the public assessment of Kansas City this week. They rank 21st in the league in yards per play differential, as opposed to dead last where Tampa Bay ranks.

Given the difference between these two teams’ differential, the “real” line (calculated by taking the difference, dividing by .15 and adding 3 points either for home field) should be -5.5 in favor of Kansas City, meaning we’re getting a whopping 10 points of line value. Even if that sounds ridiculous (and it kind of does to me), know that in order for this line to be valid, Tampa Bay would either have to rank 17th in yards per play differential or Kansas City would have to rank -0.2 yards per play worse than dead last. We’re getting line value with Kansas City, even if you don’t agree it’s 10 points worth.

The reason Kansas City’s yards per play differential is so much better than their record and points differential is turnovers. The Chiefs have a ridiculous -15 turnover differential just 5 games into the season, meaning they’re losing the turnover battle by an average of 3 per game. They’re on pace to be -48 in turnovers, which would surpass the NFL record by 18, a record that’s stood since 1965. They’re not going to continue on this pace. Even if they break that record and finish with say a turnover differential of -31, that’s an average of -1.6 per game the rest of the way, which is only half as bad as what they’ve done through 5 games. Basically, even if the Chiefs break a 47 year old record, they’ll still be noticeably improved going forward. That’s why they’re undervalued.

I don’t even think they’ll break that record. They could, but they probably won’t. Turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here.

One area where the Chiefs have been especially bad in so far is fumbles. They’ve lost 10 fumbles this year, but they’ve only fumbled 13 times total, which isn’t as bad. Historically numbers will show that recovering fumbles once they’re on the ground is more luck than skill and this tends to even out over time. Even if they continue to fumble 2.6 times per game going forward, which is probably not going to happen, you can expect them to only lose 1.3 per game, rather than the 2 per game they’ve lost thus far. That will make a noticeable difference in their turnover differential.

Another area they’ve been bad in so far is interceptions as they lead the league with 9. This is more skill than fumbles, so it’s not as likely to continue, but maybe a quarterback switch from Matt Cassel to Brady Quinn will have a positive impact. As bad as Quinn has been in his career, his interception rate of 2.5% is pretty average. Through 5 games, Matt Cassel was at 5.1%. If Quinn can even be his career average, it would be more than a 2 times improvement over what we’ve seen from them through 5 games.

The other issue they’ve had is forcing turnovers. They’ve forced just 4 this season, including just 1 fumble. However, they have forced 7 fumbles, but have only managed to recover 1 (ironically it was on special teams). If they continue to force fumbles at this rate, they can be expected to recover roughly .7 fumbles per game, which is an improvement of 350% and a half fumble per game over what they’ve done through 5 games.

They’re also just forcing .6 interceptions per game, but remember who their competition has been: Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Joe Flacco. With the exception of Fitzpatrick, none of those quarterbacks throw many interceptions anyway. Last year, they combined to throw an interception on 2.8% of their throws, including a career outlier year by Philip Rivers in interception rate. Facing Kansas City this year, they’ve thrown an interception on 2.2% of their throws. That’s not so awful on Kansas City’s. This week, they face Josh Freeman, whose career interception rate is 3.5%, including 4.0% last year.

If their interception rate cuts in half going forward and they force the same amount of fumbles and fumble with the same frequency going forward, they can be expected to force 6.6 interceptions (unchanged rate), recover 7.7 opponents’ fumbles, lose 14.3 of their own fumbles, and throw 9.9 interceptions going forward, a turnover differential of -11 in their final 11 games, or -1 per game, or a 300% improvement.

That’s not unrealistic. In fact, that’s assuming they don’t play any better, doing things like fumbling less overall, forcing more fumbles, etc., which they could. In fact, history might suggest they will (see the link I posted earlier and the link I will post again soon). It’s also not taking into account what should be a higher rate of forcing interceptions as their competition gets easier. This is a really in depth look into why I don’t put a ton of stock into turnovers. Again, here is the general.

Turnovers aside, Kansas City hasn’t been nearly as bad as people think this year. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is horrendous. I don’t think that’s a secret or anything, but they are dead last in yards per play differential and we’re getting a lot of line value with Kansas City no matter how you look at it. Kansas City is also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites with their next game being at home against Oakland. Teams are 73-48 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as dogs. The Chiefs do have a bye in between, which weakens the trend a bit, but dogs before a bye who will be favorites after the bye are 52-33 ATS since 1989, so there’s still a trend.

Meanwhile, non-conference dogs of 3+ before being divisional dogs are 23-46 ATS since 2002 and Tampa Bay faces New Orleans next week. Tampa Bay is in a good spot as non-divisional favorites after a bye. Teams are 89-62 ATS in that situation since 2002, but since 1989 (I had to go back there to get enough data), teams are just 15-20 ATS in that situation when their next game is one in which they will be divisional dogs. I considered this to be a co-pick of the week and a 5 unit play. Instead, I’m going with 4 units because Tampa Bay is coming off a bye, but that shouldn’t be a huge factor.

Public lean:  Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: TB 12 KC 5

Final update: Sharps are afraid to bet this game in general as it’s the 2nd least picked game of the week, but I don’t have much of a problem picking the Chiefs as more than a field goal underdog. Besides, Aqib Talib has been suspended for the Buccaneers, which really hurts a pass defense that already ranks dead last in the league.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: Kansas City +4.5 (-110) 4 units

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Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bills, Cardinals

Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1)

Last week, I called the Arizona Cardinals one of the worst 4-0 teams ever. With Kevin Kolb as their quarterback, no offensive line, and no running game, last week’s offensive catastrophe was inevitable and I don’t think it’s the last one. There’s a reason I frequently ranked them lower than their record and picked against them. For as good as their defense is, their offense is equally bad. They actually rank just 28th in the league in yards per play differential, thanks to a last place ranking in yards per play. They’ll still be in the playoff race with a nice head start, but expect this team to finish somewhere around .500 once again this year. In general, I suggest continuing to ride the correction as a bettor.

However, their opponent this week is the Bills, who have looked awfully awful over the past 2 weeks. Since jumping out to a 21-7 lead against New England, they have been outscored by a total of 90-10 by New England and San Francisco, who beat them 45-3 last week. Their defense, which they invested so many resources into this offseason, has allowed 45 or more points in 3 of their 5 contests this year.

I, like many people, expected an improved defense from them thanks to offseason acquisitions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, as well as the return of defensive tackle Kyle Williams, a defensive player of the year candidate in 2010 before getting hurt last year. However, Williams and Anderson have been huge free agency busts, and the latter is probably done for the year with a knee injury. Meanwhile, their back 7 has been horrendous.

Playing the Cardinals might be exactly what they need though, given the Cardinals’ offensive issues. They allowed just 31 points combined week 2 and week 3 against Kansas City’s and Cleveland’s miserable offenses, so they are capable of shutting teams down if their opponents aren’t very good. Both of those games were easy wins for the Bills, though it’s worth noting that neither team had a defense like Arizona’s.

Buffalo is also missing several offensive lineman, including two week 1 starters and two guys who were supposed to step into the starting lineup for them. Recently signed off the streets, Reggie Wells could be their starting right guard, a huge problem against a tough defensive front like Arizona’s. Ryan Fitzpatrick has always struggled under pressure. A big part of the reason why this team declined last year was injuries to their offensive line.

We are getting some line value with Buffalo. Buffalo ranks just 1 spot below Arizona in yards per play differential, with a difference of .1, which translates to a real line of Arizona -3.5. This line is Arizona -5. It’s not a huge difference at all, but it’s worth noting that before the Bills’ loss to the 49ers, they ranked much better in that category.

They just lost the yards per play battle in San Francisco by 3.5 yards per play, which is pathetic, but if you don’t want to put too much stock into one bad game against a very good opponent, you could actually argue the Bills have a good deal of line value this week since Arizona has been around the bottom of the league in that stat all season. The odds makers seem to be putting a great deal of value into that game as, despite the fact that Arizona imploded offensively last week, this line has actually shifted a point in favor of Arizona since last week. Last week, this line was -4. Still, the public is betting Arizona because of how bad the Bills have looked in the past couple of weeks.

Speaking of how bad the Bills have looked in the past few weeks, teams that lose back-to-back games by 20+ are 33-16 ATS the following week. Those teams tend to be undervalued and desperate. I already covered how the Bills are undervalued, but at 2-3, if they have any hopes of making the playoffs, the Bills need a win here to stop the bleeding against a team that’s vulnerable. Arizona, meanwhile, might be more focused on a trip to Minnesota next week. At 4-1, this isn’t a must win game or anything for them at all. Buffalo is also playing for respect as they’ve currently replaced the Jets as the laughing stock of the league.

The Bills are also in another good spot as road dogs after a loss as road dogs. Teams in this situation are 60-40 ATS since 2008. They’re also dogs before being favorites as they host Tennessee last week. Teams in that situation are 73-48 ATS since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Finally, even if Arizona does win, it probably won’t be by very many.

With the exception of that weird game against Philadelphia, the Cardinals have won every game this season by 3 points or fewer. This is nothing new for them. Last season, all 8 of their wins were by a touchdown or less, including a ridiculous 5 wins by 4 or fewer. Of their 3 wins by more than 4 last year, only Carolina week 1 was decided in regulation. In 2010, 3 of their 5 wins were by 4 or fewer. Since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, this team has won a total of 4 games by more than 4 points in regulation. As a result, they are just 1-3 ATS as favorites of more than a field goal in that time period.

This should be a low scoring, close game so even if Arizona wins, I feel safe getting 5 points. Besides, teams who score 3 or fewer points are just 2-6 ATS the following week since 1989 as favorites of more than a field goal when their opponent is also coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points. This makes complete sense because no team deserves to be laying more than a field goal if they have major offensive issues, no matter who they are playing.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 ARI 7

Final update: No change.

Buffalo Bills 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Buffalo +5 (-110) 3 units

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Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Ravens

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

Since their impressive win over the Patriots week 3, the Ravens have fallen flat in back-to-back games against inferior opponents, winning by just 6 at home against Cleveland and winning by just 3 in Kansas City last week. Does this mean they’re not as good as they once looked? Not necessarily. They won 12 games and were within a “Billy Cundiff” of sending the AFC Championship game to overtime, but they still lost to Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, and Seattle, all inferior teams they should have beaten. They also had 3 and 6 point home wins respectively against Arizona and Cleveland. They just seem to play down to the level of their competition, but that doesn’t make them a bad team.

While the play down to the level of their competition, they also play up to the level of their competition. With the exception of the aforementioned loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, they were 7-0 against playoff teams last year. This year, they’ve played two likely playoff teams, New England and Philadelphia, splitting the pair, but it’s worth noting that their close loss to the Eagles was on the road. They’ve lost just one home game to a playoff team in the last 2 seasons, a 3 point home loss to the Steelers in 2010. Assuming the Patriots make the playoffs this year, they are 8-1 at home against eventual playoff teams in the last 2 plus seasons, so they should bounce back against a quality opponent this week.

I would say the Ravens’ struggles in the past 2 weeks make them underrated, but Dallas might be equally underrated. When last we saw them, they were getting blown out on Monday Night Football, but they were playing a very good opponent and hung pretty even in the yards per play differential category. They lost because they lost the turnover battle 5 to 1 and because 2 of their 5 turnovers were returned for 6. There’s not really a skill in returning turnovers for touchdowns. The numbers show it’s more luck than anything. It’s more about where you are when you get the turnover.

Besides, turnover differentials even out on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to look at yards per play differentials. Yards tend to be more consistent on a week to week basis.

The Cowboys actually rank 2nd in the league in this category, though that is slightly skewed because it doesn’t take into account penalty yardage, something that’s not inconsistent on a week to week basis and an issue the Cowboys have had for over a year. They are, however, also healthier now as Jay Ratliff will make his season debut and Anthony Spencer will return from injury. Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 3rd. Only .1 yard per play separates these two teams, so the “real” line should be Baltimore -2.5. It’s at -3.5, so it’s pretty insignificant line value, so it’s tough to call either team overrated or underrated. Besides, the Cowboys’ penalty issue should, at the very least, make up the difference.

So there’s no line value either way. How about the public? What are they doing this week? The public seems to be more down on Dallas after their Monday Night performance than Baltimore as Baltimore is being pretty heavily publicly bet. I normally like to fade the public, but this is one instance where I agree with them. Baltimore always rises to the occasions with these tough tests and they have won their last 14 overall at home, dating back to that Pittsburgh loss. It’s a small play on the hosts.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 24 BAL 9

Final update: This is one of the biggest sharps lean of the week. I understand the appeal with Dallas coming off an embarrassing loss and a bye, but Baltimore is underrated as well after two less than stellar performances and they always play well at home, especially against tough competition. I considering dropping a unit, but I am keeping this at 2.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 2 units

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St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Rams

St. Louis Rams (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Rams appear to be the public’s new hot young team. After an impressive defensive effort and a 14 point home win over the previously undefeated Cardinals, the Rams now stand at 3-2 and are over .500 for the first time since 2006. They are the publicly backed dogs in this game. I love to bet against the public anyway, but there are several reasons why I feel the public is really wrong here and this is coming from someone who had the Rams as a 9 win team before the season.

For one, their opponents, the Arizona Cardinals, were overrated. They were and still are the league’s 28th ranked team in terms of yards per play differential, thanks to a dead last ranking in offensive yards per play. With Kevin Kolb under center, no running game, and no offensive line, the Cardinals’ offensive catastrophe was inevitable. As good as the Cardinals’ defense is, their offense is equally bad. The Rams have a good defense and it’s one of the reasons I liked them before the season, but they’re not as good as they looked last Thursday Night.

Speaking of Thursday Night, weird things happen on Thursday Night. With 3 days to prepare, it’s often ugly football and has some weird results because one team, often the “superior team” is completely unprepared. I don’t put a ton of stock into the results of these games in general so I don’t put a ton of stock into the Rams’ defensive shutdown of an incredibly poor Cardinals offense, especially since these games tend to be lower scoring anyway (this week’s game between Pittsburgh and Tennessee was the first time the total went over on Thursday Night this year).

So their defense is good, but not as good as they looked last Thursday Night, what about the offense? Well, one of the reasons I liked the Rams coming into the season, in addition to a strong defense, was because I was expecting them to have better health offensively. Injuries decimated their offensive line last year, as well as Sam Bradford’s favorite receiver Danny Amendola. So what’s happened this year? Well, injuries have decimated their offensive line, as well as Sam Bradford’s favorite receiver Danny Amendola.

Left tackle Rodger Saffold is out for at least another week. Center Scott Wells is done for the year. Rokevious Watkins, who stepped in at left guard when Robert Turner moved to center, is also out. The Rams are starting 3 guys on their offensive front who either weren’t starters to begin the year or have had to change positions. Left tackle, center, and right guard were their strong positions on the line coming into the year. 2 of those 3 starters are out, leaving Harvey Dahl as the only competent starter on a line otherwise comprised of journeyman. As a result, their offensive line ranks 30th in the league in pass block efficiency.

Meanwhile, the Amendola injury really stings. Without him, they simply have no playmakers in the receiving corps. Even though he missed most of last week with injury, he still accounts for close to 40% of their receiving yards on the season. His absence was noticeable last week. After he left, Bradford completed just 2 of his final 9 passes.

This offense looked awfully similar to the one that ranked dead last in the league in points per game last year and it makes sense considering it’s pretty much the same personnel. Some of that was just Arizona’s defense and an improved and matured Sam Bradford, as well as better coaching, will protect this team from being that bad, but this offense takes a major hit without Amendola and I don’t think this line fully takes that into account (more on that later).

One other major difference between this year’s offense and last year’s offense is Steven Jackson. The now 29-year-old back is averaging just 3.5 YPC, as opposed to the 4.4 YPC he averaged last season. Considering his age and career usage, this is a concern and I don’t expect the injuries to their offensive line and receiving corps to have a positive impact on this. In fact, it’ll probably be negative because he’s now the only one defenses really need to game plan for and they can sell out on the run.

The Dolphins, this week, are the league’s #1 ranked run defense and it’s not even close as no one is within a half yard of their 2.7 YPC average. No lead back has gained more than 3.0 YPC in any game against them so far, very impressive considering they’ve faced, among others, Arian Foster and Darren McFadden. It’s just not a good matchup for the Rams.

Back to this line, injuries not even taken into account, the Rams rank 22nd in the league in yards per play differential. The difference between their yards per play differential and the Dolphins’ is .7 in favor of Miami, which translates to a “real line” of -7.5 in favor of Miami. Given that, we have at least 3.5 points of line value with the Dolphins and that’s if you don’t take Amendola’s injury into account. I think it should be taken into account a good deal and this line has only moved a half point since last week despite the fact that both teams pulled upsets last week, so I don’t think it has really taken that injury into account.

On to the other team that pulled an upset last week, I believe the Dolphins are the team that should be the public’s hot young team. The Dolphins are 2-3 right now, but they could easily be 3-2 or 4-1 having lost two straight games in overtime before last week’s upset win in Cincinnati. Since their week 1 blowout loss in Houston, which doesn’t look so bad now, they’ve blown out Oakland, lost twice in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins, and beaten the Bengals.

The league’s 6th ranked scoring defense in 2011, they’ve picked up right where they left off led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Cameron Wake. They can run the ball and Ryan Tannehill seems to have settled in to life as a starting quarterback in the NFL. They rank 10th in the league in yards per play differential. I wish there were some applicable trends and that we were getting field goal protection with the Dolphins, but I do feel they are the right side for a small play.

Public lean: St. Louis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 12 STL 7

Final update: No change.

Miami Dolphins 20 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Miami -4 (-110) 2 units

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