2012 Week 6 NFL Picks

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks: Week 6 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)

As you may know, the Seahawks have a huge home/road disparity. Since 2007, they are 29-14 ATS at home and 15-29 ATS on the road. Because of this, I love betting on their games and frequently make significant plays on them at home and against them on the road. For the first 4 weeks of the season, I was 4-0 on their games using mainly just the home/road disparity and all 4 were significant plays.

Last week, the Seahawks won in Carolina and I lost my bet, as I failed to put enough value into the Panthers’ injuries (Jon Beason, Chris Gamble) and into the fact that the Seahawks were in their 2nd straight road game. Before last week, dogs in their 2nd straight road game were 122-86 ATS since 2008. As bad as the Seahawks are on the road, they were 4-4 ATS in that situation coming into last week. Still, betting on them at home and against them on the road is generally a good idea.

This week, they are 4 point home dogs. As home dogs of 3 or more, this team is 14-4 ATS since 2007, including 2-0 this year, pulling two home upsets over the Cowboys and the Packers. Home dogs, in general, are 18-11 ATS this year, which is something. We’re also getting line value with the Seahawks. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is 0.4, in favor of Seattle, which should translate to a line of 5.5 in favor of Seattle, and that’s not even taking into account how good they are at home. We’re getting at least 9.5 points of line value with the Seahawks.

The reason the Seahawks have the superior yards per play differential is because the Patriots’ is actually negative. A 24th ranked defense in terms of yards per play allowed has a lot to do with this. They allowed 28 to the Bills and though they only allowed 21 to the Broncos, a lot of that had to do with how little the Broncos were on the field. The Broncos’ defense could not get the Patriots’ offense off the field and the Patriots dominated the time of possession battle roughly 35 minutes to 25 minutes.

The Seahawks, however, lead the league in yards per play allowed. They’ve frustrated Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, and Cam Newton immensely this year, so the Patriots, at the very least, won’t dominate the time of possession battle. This will likely expose their defense. For the record, teams that run 80 plays or more in a non-overtime game are 75-97 ATS since 1989 in their next game.

There are two reasons why the Patriots’ yards per play differential is significantly inferior to their record and points differential. The first one is that they’ve become a running team. Running plays tend to get fewer yards per, but tend to translate to more consistent drives. This is one of the few flaws of yards per play. Teams that run more will look inferior to teams that pass more, even though that might not be the case. The Patriots have actually run on 191 plays, as opposed to 185 passes this year. However, the same can be said about Seattle, who has run 172 times to 125 passes, so this is not relevant this week.

The other reason is because they are dominating the turnover battle, forcing 14 takeaways to 4 giveaways. However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here.

I almost want to make an exception for the Patriots because they’ve done this for so long and because they’re so well coached and so well quarterbacked, but I really don’t think their defense can rely on takeaways like this going forward. Their offense might continue to limit turnovers. I’m not expecting Tom Brady to start suddenly turning the ball over at a high rate, but their defense won’t continue to average 2.8 takeaways per game from here on out.

Most notably, the high number of fumbles they’ve forced and recovered this year is unlikely to continue. They’re forcing and recovering 1.6 fumbles per game right now. That’s a record pace. They’ve recovered 8 of the 10 fumbles they’ve forced, which is also unlikely to continue. Even, if they continue to force fumbles at this rate, they can still only expect to recover 1 per game (5 over 5 games).

In spite of all this, the public is pounding New England likely because of how unstoppable their offense has looked in the past few weeks. That’s true. They have been pretty unstoppable, but the Seahawks probably have a better chance than anyone else they’ve faced of doing so. I love going against the public, particularly on big public leans, and that’s just another reason to love Seattle this week. This is a big play.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

Sharps lean: NE 15 SEA 10

Final update: Slight sharp lean on New England, but I still like Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks 23 New England Patriots 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Seattle +4 (-110) 4 units

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: Week 6 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3)

Last week, I was very hesitant to make a big play on the Texans, even though I felt they were the significant superior team, because the Jets had so many things working in their favor. They were coming off an embarrassing home shutout and had to spend the week listening to how, at 2-2, they were done. Houston, meanwhile, sat at 4-0, so that game meant nothing to them, especially with Green Bay next on the schedule. The Jets managed to cover thanks to a kickoff return touchdown. The Jets threw everything they had at the Texans and the Texans were sleep walking, but they still did not win.

It’s very tough to maintain that type of intensity week in and week out in the NFL. In fact, I expect them to be flat this week. This is a bad spot for them, even not considering how much effort they put into the Houston game, only to lose. Favorites off a loss as a dog before being dogs are 53-77 ATS since 2008. They play New England next week, the division leader and a hated rival, so they could easily overlook the “lowly’ Colts.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts, are in the opposite spot. Dogs before being favorites are 75-44 ATS since 2011. They host Cleveland next week. The Colts played with a ton of intensity last week as well, coming back from down 18 at halftime as 7 point underdogs to beat the Packers. Reggie Wayne had the game of his life and got the game ball, which he gave to Head Coach Chuck Pagano, who is currently hospitalized undergoing treatment for leukemia. Given what they’re playing for, I give them a much better chance of keeping up that level of intensity than the Jets.

We’re also getting points with the better team as the Colts rank .4 yards per play better than the Jets in yards per play differential, which translate to a “real” line of -0.5 in favor of the Jets, meaning we’re getting 3 points of line value with the Colts and that’s not taking into account the Jets’ injury situation. I don’t think this line really captures how awful the Jets are without Darrelle Revis and all of the other players missing with injury. Their game on Monday Night was not indicative of this team’s talent level, for reasons I already mentioned.

One NFL executive compared the Revis injury to any other team losing its starting quarterback and he was so right. Without Revis, they can’t do any of the things to normally make them good defensively and for a defensive minded team, that’s absolutely devastating. Without him, they can’t blitz as much as they normally do, which really hurts a team that already ranked 4th worst in the league in pass rush efficiency.

It also hurts their run defense some because they have to play their linebackers and safeties deeper in coverage, rather than stacking the box with Rex Ryan’s signature 46 scheme, as they often do. Normally a good run defense team, this team ranks 29th in the league against the run and don’t expect that to improve without Revis. They’re also missing their top-2 nose tackles, Sione Pouha and Kenrick Ellis, so they’re expected to start undrafted rookie Damon Harrison at nose tackle. And, of course, Revis’ absence also hurts the overall pass defense. They currently rank 10th against the pass, but with no Revis, no pass rush, and poor safety play, expect that rank to fall in future weeks.

Offensively, they were already a mess. Mark Sanchez’ 48% completion percentage is the worst through 5 games by any starting quarterback since JaMarcus Russell in 2009. Sanchez will likely get at least one of his receivers, Dustin Keller, back from injury this week and maybe Stephen Hill as well, but it’s unclear if that will help. They also rank 30th in the league running the ball as neither Shonn Greene nor Bilal Powell can get anything going. Meanwhile, the offensive line isn’t doing any favors to either their run or pass attack, ranking 27th in pass block efficiency and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked run blocking group. If you started over the season today, they might have the worst record in the league going forward.

Given that, I can’t put any money on them as favorites of more than a field goal in any situation. In this situation, however, I really like Indianapolis. They’re playing in their Head Coach’s honor and they’re dogs before being favorites. The Jets, meanwhile, are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs. This would have been a 5 unit co-pick of the week if I wasn’t worried about betting a publicly backed underdog (Indianapolis), but it’s still a big play.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 22 IND 6

Final update: This one surprised me, but the LV Hilton line is Jets -3, so maybe that makes a difference. I just can’t understand taking the Jets as more than 3 point favorites right now. They put everything into their game last week and they’re generally abysmal thanks to all of their injuries. We’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot.

Indianapolis Colts 26 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: Week 6 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (0-5)

Last week I noted that, assuming Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Washington don’t make the playoffs and Baltimore does, the Bengals were 12-0 against non-playoff teams since Andy Dalton took over week 1 last year, and 0-10 against playoff teams. For that reason, I didn’t make a big play on Miami, even though I felt they were the right side, because it wasn’t a huge spread. Miami ended up winning. Unless Miami is a playoff team, that spotless record seems to be gone.

I had the Bengals as an overrated team coming into the season because of their struggles against good teams and now they appear to be overrated once again. Look at who they’ve beaten, Washington (2-3), Cleveland (0-5), and Jacksonville (1-4). The latter two are the two worst teams in these Power Rankings and they only beat Cleveland in Cincinnati by 7.

They’re now a dark horse team in the running to be the team that goes from out of the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer, which is where I had them before the season. After this a game in Cleveland this week, potentially a trap game, the Bengals face Pittsburgh, Denver, the Giants, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore, all of whom could easily make the playoffs. After Cleveland, their only remaining easy opponents are Oakland and Kansas City.

Fortunately, the Bengals do have yet another game against an expected non-playoff team here this week. They aren’t 12-0 against non-playoff teams and expected non-playoff teams anymore, but 12-1 isn’t bad. That being said, they could be caught looking forward to next week’s contest against Pittsburgh. Andy Dalton knows he’s never beaten a playoff team. This whole team knows that. Pittsburgh has been regarded as the class of the division for so many years, so that’s going to be a huge benchmark game for them.

Given that, they could overlook the 0-5 Browns. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are just 30-67 ATS since 2002. Meanwhile, home dogs are 18-11 ATS this season, so that’s something. The Bengals are also just 10-21 ATS as favorites since 2007. You’d think that would be improved with their dominance over bad teams over the past year, but they are just 4-4 ATS in that situation since 2011, so it’s pretty inconclusive.

Speaking of the 0-5 Browns, teams that are 0-5 or worse are 78-53 ATS as a dog since 2002. This makes some sense. No one wants to bet a winless team this far into the season so the odds makers can inflate the spread a little bit and be sure that the public will still bet against the winless team. That seems to be what’s happening here as most of the action is on Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, we are getting a little bit of line value in this one because the true line (calculated by taking the difference in yards per play differential, dividing by .15 and adding 3 points either way for home field advantage) is -1.5. That doesn’t even take into account that Cincinnati has had an awfully easy schedule, while the Browns have had to play the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens, 3 teams who could easily be playoff teams at the end of the year. With the exception of last week’s loss to the Giants, they hung within 6 of their other two opponents. Meanwhile, that loss to the Giants was a lot closer than the final score would suggest. They’re not as bad as their record would suggest and Cincinnati isn’t as good as their record would suggest.

I know the Browns could be without D’Qwell Jackson and Ahytba Rubin in this one, but they are getting back Joe Haden, so those should cancel out on the defensive side of the ball. It’s not a huge play because I hate making big plays on winless teams to win, but Cleveland does feel like the right side this week, like Miami did last week, and with Cincinnati coming off a loss to an expected non-playoff team and with a huge divisional game against Pittsburgh next on Cincinnati’s schedule, I feel more confident taking Cleveland than I did taking Miami last week.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: CIN 24 CLE 8

Final update: The LV Hilton line is PK, so I kind of understand why people are picking Cincinnati. I’m not changing this one.

Cleveland Browns 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Cleveland +2.5 (-110) 2 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans: Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

Week 3, the Steelers traveled to play a significantly inferior team, missing two of their top defenders, and yet were still heavily bet by the public as road favorites. They lost outright and a lot of people lost a lot of money. 3 weeks later, the Steelers have had a bye, a 2 point win at home over an Eagles team that once again lost the turnover battle, and the Steelers are in the same exact situation. Apparently the public hasn’t learned because Pittsburgh is once again being heavily bet by the public (and you know how much I love to bet against heavy public leans).

The Steelers absolutely suck on the road against bad teams outside of the division under Mike Tomlin. They are 3-12 ATS as 3+ road favorites outside of the division since Tomlin took over in 2007. They just don’t really seem to care about these games. On top of the Oakland loss, the Steelers won by just 4 in Kansas City against Tyler Palko last year and by just 3 in Indianapolis against Curtis Painter and the eventually 2-14 Colts last year, so don’t tell me the Titans can’t cover this game because they’re not talented enough. None of those teams were either.

On top of that, they will be missing Troy Polamalu and probably LaMarr Woodley. Both were lost last week and on a short week, the odds are really against them being healthy enough to play by Thursday Night. Polamalu has already been ruled out. Against Oakland, both Polamalu and James Harrison were out. Woodley’s loss is easily equal to the loss of Harrison (at this stage in their respective careers), while Polamalu’s injury is the one that really hurts.

Excluding last week, during which Polamalu left in the middle, the Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. Last week, the Steelers had held the Eagles scoreless on 3 drives before Polamalu went out and ended up giving up 14 points on their next 5 drives. His absence will be huge.

Besides, we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Titans. The Steelers have an even yards per play differential and that’s not taking into account their current injury situation or their general struggles on the road against inferior non-divisional teams. If you take the difference of these two team’s yards per play differentials, you get .7. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points either way to get the “real” line. Given that, this line should be -1.5 in favor of Pittsburgh, so we’re getting 4.5 points of line value with the Titans at +6, at the very least.

Besides, as strange as it may seem, the Titans are in a good spot coming off back-to-back losses by 20+. Teams in that situation are 33-16 ATS since 2002 and the Titans covered in this exact situation week 3, pulling the home upset over the superior Lions, who were also, not surprisingly, heavily publicly bet. Teams in that situation tend to be both desperate and undervalued and I believe the Titans are both.

Despite the Steelers’ injuries and a lackluster home performance, this line has moved 2 points from -4 to -6 since last week, most likely because of how bad the Titans looked in Minnesota. Meanwhile, at 1-4, this is really the Titans’ last stand. Remember, this team won 9 games last year, so they probably had high hopes for this season. Betting against an undervalued, desperate team is never a good idea.

Tennessee is also a home team on Thursday Night. Home teams are 67-48 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989. Traveling on a short week is rarely a recipe for success. Teams are just 21-23 ATS as home dogs, which makes sense because proven, veteran teams are often much better prepared for a short week like this, which cancels out any advantage of not having to travel.

However, while Pittsburgh is a proven, veteran team, if they have trouble getting up for bad, non-divisional teams on the road normally, why would they be any more likely to do so on Thursday Night, especially with a key divisional match up in Cincinnati on the schedule next. They failed to cover last year on Thursday game and that was at HOME against divisional Cleveland. Meanwhile, while home dogs typically don’t have a big advantage on Thursday Night, home dogs are 18-11 ATS this season, which is something. In this situation, St. Louis covered last week.

This is at the very least a co-pick of the week. It might be my only pick of the week, but it’s at least one of them. I haven’t made a 5+ unit play since week 3, opting to go with three 4-unit co-picks of the week in each of the last 2 weeks instead of a 5-unit pick of the week. I went 5-1 in those games and I was also 2-1 in picks of the week from weeks 1-3, so I’m feeling really confident and want to make at least one 5 unit pick this week. There may be more, but this one is one I really like.

Pittsburgh sucks in this situation and won’t be any better on a short week, especially with a key divisional game on the horizon. They’re also missing two very key defenders, which this spread doesn’t take into account and they’re not playing well overall anyway. Tennessee, meanwhile, is both undervalued and desperate in a “last stand” game at home on a Thursday Night. Finally, we’re getting significant line value and a chance to bet against a heavy public lean. There’s really nothing I don’t like about Tennessee +6 this week. I’m also putting a unit on the under because the under is 67-50 on Thursday night since 1989, including 4-0. Teams are often unprepared offensively on a short week.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Tennessee Titans 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 5 units

Over/Under: Under 42.5

Week 5 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks

Week 5 Results

ATS: 8-6 +0 units/-$150

SU: 10-4

Upset Picks: 1-1 +$425

Over/Under: 1-0-1 +$100

Total: +$375

Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 40-34-3 +18 units/+$905

SU: 46-31

Upset Picks: 13-15 +$425

Over/Under: 3-0-1 +300

Total: +1630

Survivor: 3-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF)

Public Results ATS*: 34-42-1 -25 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.