2012 Week 8 NFL Picks

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans

Washington Redskins (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

In a couple other of my picks this week, I said it would be reckless to pick a heavily public backed dog this week with one exception. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money.

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

Well, this game is that one exception and it’s only because there is so much working for Washington in this one. For starters, they’ve been awfully unlucky this season. All 4 of their losses have come by a touchdown or less and 3 in three of them the Redskins had a significant contributor go down with injury who is now healthy. Against St. Louis, they lost top cornerback Josh Wilson. Against Washington, they lost top offensive lineman Trent Williams. Against Atlanta, they lost quarterback Robert Griffin.

All 3 of those guys are healthy now. They’re also missing several other players with injury like Brian Orakpo, Adam Carriker, Fred Davis, Jammal Brown, and Pierre Garcon, but they’ve played pretty well without those 4 all season. This week, they could be without London Fletcher for the first time in forever, but their defense isn’t the reason they’re playing well. They’re already allowing 28.6 points per game.

They also are expected to finally get Brandon Meriweather back from injury, which will help their horrific safety corps. They should be able to keep this one close even if they lose. So I like that we’re getting more than 4 points with them, even though both measures of real line suggest there’s no real line value either way as both calculate a real line of Pittsburgh -5.

2 big trends are in Washington’s favor too. Road dogs off of a road loss are 93-58 ATS since 2007 and Washington lost in New York last week. Meanwhile, dogs before being favorites are 84-46 ATS since 2011. Washington hosts Carolina next week. On top of those two trends, the NFC is clearly the superior conference right now. They are 19-9 in head-to-head competition with the AFC, including 17-11 ATS and 7-0 ATS as dogs. Pittsburgh isn’t playing like their normal selves right now so they don’t deserve to be more than 3 point favorites over any average or better team from the NFC.

Speaking of the Steelers not playing like their normal selves right now, a lot of that has to do with Troy Polamalu’s absence. Since 2009, the Steelers are 8-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allow 21.4 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game. He’s already been ruled out for this week. Much is being made about the Steelers’ win over the Bengals in Cincinnati as a reason for why they are “back,” but I’m not very impressed with a 7 point win over a Bengals team that’s lost 3 straight, including to the Browns. The Bengals have never beaten a playoff team in the Andy Dalton era and this year, they’ve only beaten the Browns, Jaguars, and these Bengals (in that game that Williams got hurt).

They’ll still an average team, maybe slightly better until Polamalu returns. They’re also expected to be without right tackle Marcus Gilbert again, which hurts because replacement Mike Adams has really struggled. Both backs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman could be out again and replacement Jonathan Dwyer has been really up and down this year. I hate betting on a heavily public dog in general, especially this week, which is why it’s a small play, but I like the Redskins.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Pittsburgh covers)

Sharps lean: WAS 14 PIT 8

Final update: No change.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Washington +4.5 (-110) 2 units

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Week 8 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

In NFC West matchups, the rule of thumb is to pick the home team. Since 2007, no other division comes close to covering at home at a rate as high as the NFC West, which is 103-74 ATS at in that time period. San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona are all teams that are good at home and bad on the road generally. Given that, it makes sense that inside the division, the home team generally covers in NFC West divisional contests and that’s exactly what happens.

In that same time period, the home team in an NFC West divisional matchup covers at a record of 38-24 ATS. As well as the 49ers played last year, they still managed to go 1-2 ATS on the road in the division, 0-2-1 ATS depending on the lines (some had Seattle +2 rather than +1.5). They lost straight up in Arizona, beat St. Louis by just a touchdown, and beat Seattle by just 2, all of which were games they were favored in. There’s not a lot of data on this type of situation, but home dogs of 7+ in the NFC West have covered 2 of the 3 instances in that time period. Home dogs of 7+ cover at a high rate anyway, regardless, going 99-78 ATS since 2002.

Besides, the Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games anyway. This makes sense because they have a good defense, as much as their offense struggles. Dating back to last year, they’ve only lost 4 games by more than 7, out of 11 total losses, including only once at home, 32-20 to the Steelers. This week’s game is even more likely to be close because the 49ers are a more defensive oriented team as well. Some places have this line at 6.5 (-110), but pay extra for the +7 if you can because you might need it. +7 is at -120 right now.

Besides, this spread seems a little weird. Last week, San Francisco was anywhere from -7 to -8.5 at home for Seattle and they didn’t even cover, winning by just 7. Now they’re -7 in Arizona? Arizona beat Seattle and both teams have the same record. I’ll agree that Seattle is the better team right now, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that, especially considering the home/road disparity in NFC divisional games.

Meanwhile, Arizona was +7 in Minnesota and pushed and now they’re +7 at home for San Francisco? Minnesota beat San Francisco and has the same record as them. Once again, I’ll agree the 49ers are the better team, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that. Neither do the measures for calculating line value either. The yards per play differential method gives us a line of San Francisco -9.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives of a line of San Francisco -3. If you average those two out, you get lower than -7 and that’s not even taking into account that Alex Smith isn’t playing well right now and that they’re unlikely to continue rushing for 5.9 YPC, because no one does that. That’s the main reason behind their #1 ranking in yards per play.

Plus, just look at the spread last year. San Francisco was 10-2 and Arizona was 5-7 and the spread was just 3 and the Cardinals still covered and won. The 49ers aren’t as good of a team as they were last year because they aren’t winning the turnover battle like they were last year. This line is ridiculous. Normally I’d think this line was too good to be true, but the public likes San Francisco and the line still isn’t moving.

I know I mentioned early this week that I think favorites will have a good week this week, in order to help bring the dogs/favorites record eventually to within 10 games of .500, which it’s been in each of the last 10 years at least (right now it’s at 63-39 in favor of dogs). That doesn’t mean dogs should not be bet at all. It’s perfectly fine to take a dog if the favorite is publicly backed like the 49ers are this week. I really like Arizona this week. I also like the under this week. This should be a close, low scoring game between two of the top-4 scoring defenses in the league. Besides, the under hits at a record of 78-46 in NFC West divisional games since 2007.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 12 SF 6

Final update: Line in Las Vegas Hilton is 6.5, but still the lean is on Arizona. I really like Arizona at +7. Pay extra for the extra half point if you can. If you can’t, it’s a smaller play.

San Francisco 49ers 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7 (-120) 4 units

Total: Under 38 (-110) 1 unit

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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 8 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

The Falcons are 6-0 and they’re underdogs. Easy money right? That seems to be what the public thinks as most of the action is on the undefeated dog. However, that’s not necessarily always the case with undefeated dogs. Believe it or not, there’s no trend associated with undefeated teams as dogs this late in the season. Undefeated dogs after week 7 are 3-2 ATS, after week 6 are 3-3 ATS, and after week 5 are 7-7 ATS. The odds makers don’t make it that easy on you.

The reason that Atlanta is a dog this week is because in all his years as Head Coach of the Eagles, Andy Reid has never lost off a regular season bye. He’s a perfect 14-0 straight up, including 11-3 ATS. If we expand that to the playoffs, he’s 14-4 ATS and 17-1 SU with that one loss coming in the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Last year, when they finished 8-8, they blew out the Cowboys 34-7 after their bye, despite having a 2-4 record coming in. That was their biggest victory of the season. I don’t know what the hell Andy Reid does during a bye, but whatever it is, it works. Whether you like the Eagles or not, you have to agree if they ever can get their act together and play like their talent level, they’d be a dangerous team. Well, this week, that should be the case.

Besides, while the Falcons are 6-0, they aren’t exactly playing well of late. They’ve won their last 3 games by a combined 12 points against teams that are a combined 6-13 on the year and they could have lost each of them had one or two things gone a different way. Against Carolina, the Panthers led into the late 4th quarter, but botched their end game badly. Against Washington, the Redskins were even with the Falcons until Robert Griffin got hurt. He was replaced by 4th round rookie Kirk Cousins, who promptly throw 2 interceptions. The Redskins also missed a very makeable field goal in that game. Against Oakland, Carson Palmer threw an unnecessary late pick six in a 3 point Falcons win.

Besides, it’s not like they’ve played a tough schedule or anything. They have the league’s worst strength of schedule. The two toughest teams they’ve faced are Denver and San Diego and the Denver game was in Atlanta. Philadelphia is probably the toughest road team they’ve faced thus far this year, even not off a bye. Besides, it’s supposed to be wet and rainy in Philadelphia this weekend and the Falcons have never proven to be a good team outside in the elements in the Matt Ryan era. I don’t expect that to change now that they’re become a more pass reliant team.

Easy schedule aside, Atlanta is still not playing as well as their record. They rank just 6th in the league in rate of sustaining drives differential at 7.5% and 21st in the league in yards per play differential with a -0.3. The reason for this, aside from some close games, has been their reliance on turnovers. They rank 3rd in the league with a +10 turnover differential. However, historically, turnover differentials average out to be the same on a weekly basis regardless of what your previous turnover differential was. It’s not something you can rely on week in and week out to win you games. They almost lost at home to Oakland because they lost the turnover battle. For more on that, click here.

Philadelphia is in the opposite situation. Because of their -9 turnover differential, tied for 2nd worst in the league, they actually rank better in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives than their record would suggest, ranking 13th in yards per play differential and 11th in rate of sustaining drives differential, despite a .500 record.

We can use these two stats to calculate a real line. The real line with the points per play differential method is Philadelphia -6.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. I like to use both because one overestimates teams that get a lot of big plays (or allow a lot of big plays) and the other underestimates those teams, but using those methods, at the very least, this line doesn’t seem so ridiculous, not even taking Andy Reid’s record off a bye into account. At the most, we may actually have some line value with the Eagles so long as the line remains below 3.

Each team has a prominent trend working for them. Teams off a close home loss (1-3 points) as favorites are 84-64 ATS the following week since 2002. That works for Philadelphia and it’s even stronger off a bye, 17-5 ATS since 1989. The Falcons, meanwhile, are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 84-46 ATS in since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in that situation, but the Eagles will also be extra focused off a bye.

Besides, I think it would be reckless to pick a publicly backed underdog this week. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

You can follow the odds makers’ thought process here. They want favorites to cover, but know the public generally bets favorites and they still want to make money. However, they know if they make a 6-0 team like the Falcons a dog, people are going to go for that because “they’re undefeated and all they have to do is win,” but the odds makers also know how good Reid is off a bye so they’re confident they can get their money while a favorite still simultaneously wins. It’s a trap line. I love the Eagles this week. As long as this line is lower than 3, it’s a pick of the week. It might be a close game, but I’m very confident they will win. For the record, I’m 10-3-1 ATS on picks of the week and co-picks of the week this year.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PHI 29 ATL 5

Final update: In total agreement here. Always a good sign. In general, my big plays have matched up with the sharps.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 5 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 8 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

As I like to mention every week, the rule of thumb on Thursday Night is to take the home team. Home teams are 68-49 ATS in the history of Thursday Night football. It makes sense. On a short week, all the time to prepare, practice, and rest is incredibly valuable and when you have to travel on a short week, that takes away some of that time and puts you at an obvious disadvantage.

As I often point out, however, this effect is usually nullified when the road team is a favorite. Road favorites generally tend to be more veteran, experienced teams and more veteran, experienced teams also tend to have an advantage in preparation on a short week, for obvious reasons. This effect tends to nullify the effect of having to travel for road favorites. As a result, road favorites are 23-22 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football. What this does do is give us an even stronger trend with home favorites. Home favorites are 45-26 ATS on Thursday Night.

The one exception to that tends to be divisional home favorites. This also makes some sense. Part of the reason why travelling on a short week hurts you is because it cuts into your time to prepare for the opposing team. Well, if the opposing team is a familiar division foe, this doesn’t have as much of an effect. Divisional home favorites are just 17-16 ATS on Thursdays and divisional road favorites are 8-10 ATS.

This week, we are getting a non-divisional home favorite on Thursday Night, which happens to be the strongest trend of all. You’re the better team. Your opponent has to travel. And your opponent is unfamiliar with you and doesn’t have as much time to prepare for you as you have to prepare for them. Teams in this spot are 28-10 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football.

However, I’m not as excited to be able to use this trend as I thought it would be. The issue is that Minnesota, while they are home favorites, is also a young team. Both of these teams are young. Given that I believe the advantage favorites have on Thursday Nights stems from them being experienced and veteran and more prepared to deal with a short week, it hurts that Minnesota is a young team. We don’t really know how they’ll react to a short week, even against an equally young opponent.

Minnesota is, in fact, the better team here, so this line of -6.5 is reasonable. Actually, it’s kind of eerie how reasonable it is. I use two methods of determining line value. I use yards per play differential (yards per play minus yards per play allowed) and rate of sustaining drives differential (how often on any given set of downs you achieve a first down or a score minus how often you opponent does so).

I think these two work together well. Yards per play differential overvalues teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives and undervalues methodical offenses (and vice versa for the defense), while the rate of sustaining drives metric overvalues teams that are the exact opposite, methodical, but lack explosion.

Minnesota’s yards per play differential is 0.4, while Tampa Bay’s is -0.2. That translates to a “real” line of -7 (take the difference between the two differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 for homefield). Meanwhile, Minnesota’s rate of sustaining drives differential is 2.8%, while Tampa Bay’s is -2.0%. Take the difference, divide this time by 1.5, and add 3 for homefield, and you get a real line of -6. Average those two and you get -6.5, so there’s not really any line value either way. If there is one way, it’s towards Minnesota slightly, because Tampa Bay is missing arguably their top pass rusher Adrian Clayborn and their top cornerback Aqib Talib, while Minnesota isn’t missing anyone of note.

Two other things work against Tampa Bay. One is how close and down to the wire their game was last week. They didn’t go to overtime with the Saints, but they almost did. Teams are 3-14 ATS on Thursdays after an overtime game. Part of that is being exhausted from playing an extra period and then having to play again in 3 days, but some of that is the mental exhaustion of playing such a close game. The physical exhaustion won’t be as big of an issue this week because it didn’t actually go to overtime, but they could be in a bad spot mentally off such a close loss to a divisional opponent.

The other is just the rate of which underdogs have been covering this year. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. In this one, there’s not a significant public lean either way and I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week, starting with this game, even if it isn’t a big play. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh’s declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

I’m afraid to put more than 2 units on Minnesota because they are young, but Minnesota should be the right side. I also, as always, like the under on Thursday Night. Unprepared teams, which teams who play on Thursday Night are, tend to see the negative effects more offensively than defensively. The under is 51-70 on Thursday Night all time. I especially like the under this week because both teams are young.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Minnesota Vikings 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Minnesota -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 7 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks

Week 7 Results

ATS: 5-6-2 -2 units/-$340

SU: 9-4

Upset Picks: 1-4 -235

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: -$375

Public Results ATS*: 5-7-1 +5 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 50-49-5 +11 units/-$125

SU: 63-41

Upset Picks: 19-21 +$1050

Over/Under: 4-1-1 +290

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +1315

Survivor: 5-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI)

Public Results ATS*: 45-57-2 -30 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

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