2016 NFL Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-6)

The Steelers got a big home win last week against the New York Giants, but this could be a letdown game for them in Buffalo. The Steelers are just 10-22 ATS as non-divisional road favorites in the Mike Tomlin era (since 2007) and have already fallen flat this season in Philadelphia and Miami in that spot. In fact, the Steelers have just 3 road wins this season and two of them came against the Browns and the Colts without Andrew Luck. We’re getting good line value with the Bills as field goal home underdogs (I would have made it an even line), so the Bills are worth a bet if you can get them at that number. The money line is a good bet in either scenario though.

Buffalo Bills 23 Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the Spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (8-4) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)

Despite 6-6 record, the Titans enter this game 7th in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a +12 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +60 point differential (which would be 4th best in the NFL). They have 38 offensive touchdowns on the season, as opposed to 27 allowed by their defense, a +11 differential that is only behind New England and Dallas (both at +14). The Broncos are a solid opponent, especially with quarterback Trevor Siemian back under center, but this line favors the Broncos by a point on the road. Tennessee is an underrated team that should be at least 3 or 4 point home favorites in this game.

The Broncos are also in a tough spot here with arguably their biggest regular season game on deck, a home clash against the New England Patriots, a game in which the Broncos will almost definitely be home underdogs. Road favorites are 51-71 ATS since 2002 before being home underdogs, as big upcoming home games can be a major distraction for teams. The Broncos are only 1 point favorites here, but I think they could easily overlook an underrated Tennessee team with New England on deck. The Titans could be without defensive end Jurrell Casey, but the Broncos could be without middle linebacker Brandon Marshall. Both teams are otherwise healthy, so those two injuries more or less cancel each other out, with Tennessee getting an advantage if Casey can play. I like the Titans a good amount this week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Denver Broncos 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +1

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-7-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-12)

The Browns are 0-12 and probably the worst team in the league right now, but they have a pretty decent shot at getting their first win of the season this week, for three reasons. For one, they’re coming off of their bye week. Bye weeks have proven very valuable for winless teams in the past. Since 1989, 19 teams have gone into their bye week with a record of 0-5 or worse. Of those 19 teams, 11 have won their first game off of the bye week and 16 of them have covered against the spread, 16-2-1 ATS.

The second reason why the Browns have a shot this week is the return of Robert Griffin. Griffin has proven to be very frail throughout his career, but he’s undoubtedly the most talented quarterback on the roster and he spent the whole off-season as the starter. I have no idea if he’s 100% in his first week off the injury, but his return should be valuable for this team, as they’ve played 4 other quarterbacks in his absence. The third reason is the Bengals aren’t a very imposing opponent without wide receiver AJ Green and running back Giovani Bernard, both of whom are out with injury.

The Bengals got a big home win last week against the Eagles, but the Eagles were missing their top-2 skill position players and have not played well at all offensively since losing right tackle Lane Johnson with a suspension. The Bengals also were in a great spot last week, as they had this upcoming “easy” game on the schedule, but this week they’re in a very tough spot with a home clash against the Pittsburgh Steelers on deck. Road favorites are 51-71 ATS since 2002 before being home underdogs. The Bengals’ 18 point win over the Eagles last week shifted this line from 3.5 on the early line last week all the way to 6, so I like the Browns’ chances of at least keeping this game close and covering the spread, even if they don’t win their first game of the season. The money line isn’t a bad bet either this week.

Cleveland Browns 24 Cincinnati Bengals 23 Upset Pick +210

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (6-6)

Typically, the Seahawks are unstoppable in the second half of the season, going 33-10-1 ATS since Pete Carroll’s first season in 2011 in games 9-16 of the regular season. This year, they got off to a strong start, covering in games 9 and 10, but then they got embarrassed in their 11th game of the season, losing 14-5 as 5.5 point favorites in Tampa Bay. They bounced back in a huge way last week, blowing out a banged up Carolina team 40-7, but that game might have been a case of winning the battle losing the war, as the Seahawks have lost safety Earl Thomas, one of the best in the game, for the season with a broken leg. It’s not that the Seahawks can’t win the Super Bowl without Thomas, especially in a year where all of the top teams have glaring flaws, but it certainly becomes a lot more difficult of a task for the Seahawks and it takes a lot of the air out of last week’s big win.

Despite that, this line has actually shifted from 2.5 in favor of Seattle to 3 in the past week. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but it’s pretty significant considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. We’re getting good value with the Packers at home, just the fourth time in Aaron Rodgers’ career that he’s been a home underdog (2-1 ATS). The Packers are also in a great spot, going to Chicago next week to face the lowly Bears. Home underdogs are 79-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, which the Packers almost certainly will be next week. The Seahawks have an easy game against the Rams on deck, but it’s in 4 days, which is tough. Favorites are just 57-83 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Normally I bet on the Seahawks in the second half of the season, but I like the Packers a lot if you can get them as field goal underdogs.

Green Bay Packers 27 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (7-5) at Los Angeles Rams (4-8)

The Rams have been beaten badly in back-to-back games. First they couldn’t stop anything against the Saints, who scored 7 offensive touchdowns in a 49-21 victory. Then last week they couldn’t move the ball, not breaking 100 yards until a garbage time touchdown drive and totalling just 7 first downs in a 26-10 loss in New England. Their offense has been the problem all year as they rank dead last (by almost 2%) in first down rate. Overall, they rank 31st in first down rate differential on the season, despite a solid defense. Unfortunately for them, things do not get any easier the next couple of weeks, as they host the Falcons this week and then go to Seattle to face the Seahawks next week.

The Rams are 6.5 point underdogs here at home, but that’s not enough points to scare me off of Atlanta, who ranks 4th in first down rate differential. Next week, the Rams figure to be at least double digit underdogs in Seattle, which puts them in a very tough spot. Not only are teams 41-63 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, underdogs of 6 or more are 48-81 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more again, as it’s very tough for an inferior team to keep it close against a superior team with another tough game next on the schedule. Next week’s game is going to be the Rams’ Super Bowl, so they could easily look past the Falcons this week, especially since the game is on Thursday Night.

The Falcons, meanwhile, host the lowly 49ers next week. Favorites of 6 or more are 93-52 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again, including 33-7 ATS when their opponent will be underdogs of 6 or more again in their next game. With no real distractions on the horizon, the Falcons should be able to steamroll an inferior Rams team. The only thing preventing this from being a bigger play is Julio Jones’ uncertain status with injury. The Falcons have said they expect him to play despite a toe injury, but he hasn’t practiced all week so nothing is certain. Even if he plays, he could be nothing more than a decoy. I think it’s still worth a bet on the Falcons as long as the line is under a touchdown though.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Los Angeles Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (10-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)

Back in week 6, the Chiefs clobbered the Raiders in Oakland, 26-10, easily the Chiefs’ most impressive game of the season. The Chiefs won the first down battle 22 to 16 and won the first down rate battle by a margin of +5.80%. That was easily the best game the Chiefs have played this season though and there’s no guarantee they can play that well again. Despite a 9-3 record, the Chiefs enter this game 27th in first down rate differential and have allowed 34 more first downs than they’ve gained and 4 more offensive touchdowns than they’ve scored.

They’ve won 9 games because of five wins by a touchdown or less (including 2 in overtime), a +6 margin in return touchdowns, and a + 14 turnover margin. Unfortunately for them, there’s zero week-to-week consistency or correlation in turnover margins (and, as a result, in return touchdown margins). For this reason, I love betting against teams that have strong turnover margins, as they tend to be overrated by traditional metrics. In the past two weeks alone, the Chiefs have scored 25 points on a special teams safety, a safety return touchdown, a pick six, a pick two, and a fake punt touchdown in two games they won by a combined 4 points. A win is a win, but at some point, they’re going to have to start consistently moving the ball better than their opponents to win games.

Fortunately for them, they’re as healthy right now as they’ve been in a while. They’ve gotten their top pass rusher Justin Houston back from off-season surgery and this week will get their top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin back from a 4-game absence with a groin injury. Aside from starting defensive end Jaye Howard, they aren’t missing any key players right now, so they’re healthier than most teams in the league right now. Also fortunately for them, the Raiders are also not as good as their record, as just 3 of their 10 wins have come by more than a touchdown and their turnover margin is +12, 3rd best in the NFL. Despite a 10-2 record, they have just 8 more first downs and 3 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents and rank 17th in first down rate differential. I have them ranked slightly higher than the Chiefs and I’m taking them for a low confidence pick as 3 point road underdogs, but there’s not enough for me to put money on them because both teams enter this game overrated.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

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San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-10) at Chicago Bears (2-9)

The 49ers have lost 10 straight games, but are favored here on the road. To give you an idea of how rare that is, the 49ers are just the 5th team since 1989 to be favored despite being on a losing streak of 10+ games and just the 2nd team since 1989 to be favored on the road despite being on a losing streak of 10+ games. It’s not like most of those 10 losses were close either, as 7 out of 10 came by double digits and the average margin of defeat is 14.4 points. That being said, I couldn’t be confident enough in the Bears to put money on them unless we were getting a full field goal with them.

The Bears are incredibly banged up right now and might be the worst team in the league. They’re missing their top two quarterbacks (Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer), their top-3 pass catchers (Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, and Zach Miller), their best offensive lineman (Kyle Long), and three of their best defensive players (middle linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Kyle Fuller), while outside linebacker Leonard Floyd, outside linebacker Willie Young, starting guard Josh Sitton, and slot receiver Eddie Royal are all expected to be gametime calls. Even if the Bears aren’t the worst team in the league, the 49ers are still in a better spot in their second of two road games, with an easy home game against the Jets on deck (in which they will likely be favored again). The Bears, meanwhile, have to turn around and go to division leading Detroit next week. I’m taking the points, but unless the line creeps up to 3 this is just a low confidence pick. The money line might be your best bet here at +110.

Chicago Bears 23 San Francisco 49ers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Chicago +2

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (9-2)

This line at 3 in favor of the hometown Oakland Raiders seems to be confusing a lot of people, as the public is all over the favorite. That’s understandable, as the Bills are 6-5 and the Raiders are 9-2, but the Raiders have won 7 of their 9 games by a touchdown or less and have just 4 wins in regulation all season by more than a field goal. In fact, they enter this game 18th in first down rate differential, just two spots ahead of the Bills who rank 20th in that metric. With that in mind, I’m actually going to fade the public and take the points here. Not only do I love fading the public, as they always lose money in the long run, I also love betting against favorites that have to play again in a few days on Thursday Night Football, as favorites are 56-83 ATS in that spot since 2008. The Raiders could get caught looking past the Bills with a matchup with division rival Kansas City right around the corner. I wish we were getting more points and I wouldn’t recommend betting any money on it, but the Bills are the pick in pick ‘em leagues.

Oakland Raiders 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (4-7) at New England Patriots (9-2)

The Patriots enter this game 2nd in first down rate differential, despite the fact that they were missing starting quarterback Tom Brady for the first 4 games of the season, but there’s still plenty of reason to be concerned with them. Their defense hasn’t been the same since they controversially traded away linebacker Jamie Collins mid-season and now their offense will likely be without Rob Gronkowski with a back injury for the rest of the season. On top of that, their schedule has been remarkably easy since Brady’s return, with their only tough opponent being the Seahawks, who beat them in New England back in week 10.

Fortunately for them, their schedule doesn’t get any tougher this week, with the Rams coming to town. The Rams have managed to win 4 games, but rank 31st in first down rate differential and 27th in point differential (-66). Their 4 wins have come by a combined 18 points, while their 7 losses have come by a combined 84 points. While the Patriots will obviously miss Gronkowski this week, the Rams could miss defensive end Robert Quinn almost as much, as he is their top pass rusher and will miss this game with a concussion.

On top of that, the Patriots are in a better spot than the Rams. While the Rams have to turn around and host a good Atlanta team, the Patriots host the Ravens next week, a game in which they are expected to be double digit favorites once again (the early line has them at 10). Favorites of 6 or more are 93-52 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again, as good teams tend to take care of business when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. On the other side, teams are 41-91 ATS since 2012 before being road underdogs of 4.5 or more, which the Rams figure to be next week, as upcoming big home games tend to be a distraction for teams.

That being said, this line is too high at 13 for me to bet anything on the Patriots with confidence. They are a different team without Gronkowski and Collins. The Rams are also in a good spot, in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 140-105 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 111-72 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 234-248 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.83 points per game, as opposed to 331-464 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.01 points per game. New England is the pick, but it’s a low confidence pick.

New England Patriots 27 Los Angeles Rams 10

Pick against the spread: New England -13

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)

The Texans are 6-5, but their 6 wins have come by a combined 36 points, while their 5 losses have come by a combined 78 points, with none of them being closer than 7 points. As a result, they have a -42 point differential that ranks 26th in the NFL and they rank 27th in first down rate differential. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win in Philadelphia on Monday Night Football last week and, now healthier on defense than they’ve been in recent weeks, could be ready to go on a run. They enter this game 13th in rate of moving the chains differential and have more in common with the 5 teams that have beaten the Texans (New England, Minnesota, Denver, Oakland, San Diego) than the 6 teams that have lost to the Texans (Chicago, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Detroit, Jacksonville).

The Texans will also be without outside linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and John Simon with injury, leaving them very thin on the edge. The problem is we’re getting no line value with the Packers, as this line has shifted from 3.5 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week, as a result of Green Bay’s win in Philadelphia and Houston’s home loss to the Chargers. The Packers should be able to give the Texans another loss by 7+ points, but I couldn’t bet money at 6.5 with any sort of confidence. The Packers are the pick in pick ‘em polls, but this is a no confidence play.

Green Bay Packers 27 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -6.5

Confidence: None

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