2017 NFL Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

The Chiefs are one of the teams I underestimated going into the season. I knew they got significantly better down the stretch last season when Justin Houston returned from injury and talented rookies Chris Jones and Tyreek Hill started seeing more playing time, but their victory over the Patriots showed just how much better, especially when you add impressive 3rd round rookie Kareem Hunt into the mix. However, while the Chiefs got the win, they lost something more important when safety Eric Berry tore his achilles in the 4th quarter, ending his season.

Berry is one of the top safeties in the league and was having the game of his life covering Rob Gronkowski before the injury, so that’s a crushing blow for this defense. Getting the upset win was nice, but Berry’s absence is likely to cost them more than a win the rest of the way and puts a damper on the outlook on this whole team. However, if you ask the casual betting public, the only thing that was important was the win, as they are still on the Chiefs despite the fact that this line has actually shifted from -4 in favor of the Chiefs over the Eagles on the early line last week to -5 this week. The line has even moved up to 5.5 and 6 in some places.

That line shift occurred not only in spite of the Berry injury, but also in spite of the Eagles having an impressive week 1 as well, winning by double digits on the road against a capable Redskins team. The Eagles were near the top of my underrated teams list coming into the season, with Carson Wentz going into his 2nd year in the league, stud right tackle Lane Johnson no longer suspended (they went 5-1 with him and 2-8 without him last season), and the Eagles’ record in close games likely to regress to the mean (1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season). They look good so far and should compete for the NFC East with the Cowboys. They lost cornerback Ronald Darby for 4-6 weeks with a dislocated ankle, which hurts because the recently acquired ex-Bill was their top cornerback, but that’s not nearly as big of a loss as Berry.

Even if the Chiefs still had Berry, I’d say these two teams were about even and this line should be around 3 in favor of the hometown Chiefs. Without Berry, this should be closer to 1 or a pick ‘em, so we’re getting a lot of line value with the Eagles. I locked this in at 5 earlier in the week, but you can get it at 6 now in some places. Either way, we’re getting a ton of value with the visiting team here and the Eagles are my Pick of the Week. There is great value with the money line too, as the Eagles are a 2:1 underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +200

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

The Colts had an embarrassing week 1, losing 46-9 in Los Angeles to a Rams team that won 4 games last season. They only managed 10 first downs to the Rams’ 19 and moved the chains at a 13.97% worse rate than their opponents. It’s clear this is not the same team without all of the players they are missing with injuries, most notably quarterback Andrew Luck, but also center Ryan Kelly, cornerback Vontae Davis, and safety Clayton Geathers. All four of those players will miss this week as well.

The Cardinals also had a nightmare week 1 too, though in a different way. They only lost by 12 in Detroit, but lost star running back David Johnson and left tackle DJ Humphries for an extended period of time with injury. The Cardinals jumped out to a 10-0 lead and led 17-9 in the third quarter, but were outscored 26-6 the rest of the way against an overrated Detroit team that is also missing it’s left tackle and won just one game by more than a touchdown in 2016. The injuries, especially the injury to Johnson, were a big factor in the Cardinals’ declining performance throughout the game.

Johnson and Humphries are not the only Cardinals who will be out this week, as left guard Mike Iupati, tight end Jermaine Gresham, and wide receiver John Brown are also expected to miss this game after playing week 1, while middle linebacker Deone Bucannon remains out after off-season surgery. The Cardinals probably get defensive end Robert Nkemdiche back this week, but he’s hardly the reinforcements they need. The Cardinals also lost 5 defensive starters in free agency this off-season, including stud defensive end Calais Campbell and talented safeties DJ Swearinger and Tony Jefferson, so this team is a far cry from their 2016 version.

Despite both of these teams’ rough first weeks, this line has shifted from 3.5 in favor of the Cardinals to 7 since the early line last week, the biggest line movement in any game from last week to this week. Missing as much as they currently are, the Cardinals shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, but the casual betting public sees the Colts as unbettable right now, which is why the public money keeps pouring in on the Cardinals despite the line movement. The public always loses money in the long run, so I’m always weary of heavy public favorites like this. I don’t think the casual public understands how bad the Cardinals are right now given all of their injuries.

The casual public is also likely underestimating the effect of the Colts’ quarterback change from Scott Tolzien to Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has only been with the team for a couple weeks, acquired from the Patriots before final cuts, but he’s undoubtedly more talented than Scott Tolzien (who now has 9 career interceptions to just 2 career touchdowns) and he should be a significant upgrade, even on a limited playbook. He also gives them dual threat ability as a passer and runner than Tolzien did not give them and should do a much better job of getting the ball to what is still an above average receiving corps.

The Colts are also in a good bounce back spot after that horrible defeat, while the Cardinals could overlook the Colts with a much tougher game next week at home against Dallas on Monday Night Football. Teams are 53-28 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ or more (16-8 ATS since 2012), as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a huge loss. You can definitely argue the Colts will be all three of those things this week. Meanwhile, road favorites like the Cardinals are just 17-32 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs, which the Cardinals are expected to be next week against the Cowboys. With a major tougher game on deck, the Cardinals might not have been completely focused in preparation throughout the week and that could show on the field. I’m not super excited about betting on the Colts, but we’re getting too much value here to not make a small bet.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

When I saw this line was -3 in favor of the Bengals last week, I thought about locking in the pick a week in advance. Three points is usually the standard adjustment for homefield advantage, so that line suggested these two teams were about even. I had Cincinnati 4 wins better than the Texans in my season previews and several spots ahead of them in my rankings, so -3 would have been a great value. Non-divisional home favorites also tend to cover on Thursday nights because it’s tough for an inferior team to travel on a short week and face a relatively unfamiliar opponent. Teams are 27-13 ATS all-time as non-divisional home favorites on Thursday Night when both teams are on short weeks (excluding week 1 and games with teams coming off byes).

This line has since moved to 5, so I am kicking myself for not locking it in at 3. Both teams looked bad last week, with the Bengals getting shutout at home by Ravens and the Texans getting sacked 10 times in a home loss to the Jaguars, but the oddsmakers clearly thought Houston’s performance was much more concerning, hence the line movement. I agree the Bengals have a much better chance of making week 1 look like a fluke than the Texans, but we still lose significant value with that line movement.

We are still getting some value with the Bengals though. I thought they were the clearly better team coming into the season and now Cincinnati gets cornerback Adam Jones back from suspension and possibly safety Shawn Williams and wide receiver John Ross back from injury, while Texans will likely be without middle linebacker Brian Cushing, right guard Jeff Allen, and their top-3 tight ends due to injury. That’s in addition to #2 wide receiver Will Fuller still being out with a broken collarbone and left tackle Duane Brown continuing to hold out.

Another wrinkle in this matchup is the Texans benching quarterback Tom Savage for first round rookie Deshaun Watson at halftime of last week’s loss. Watson was expected to take over for Savage at some point this season, but the Texans probably didn’t want to have to turn to him after just two quarters, so it’s fair to question his readiness, especially since he has to go on the road on a short week and face an above average defense. His second half performance last week was uninspiring and his mobility could be limited after suffering an ankle injury towards the end of the game last week.

That could prove to be a significant injury because his mobility is probably his best asset at this point, especially given how little time this offensive line figures to give him in the pocket. Without Brown and Allen, arguably their best two offensive lineman, the Texans probably have the worst offensive line in football. They also don’t have anything resembling a capable #2 receiving option after DeAndre Hopkins and will likely have to start a practice squad player at tight end. All this inexperience on the road on a short week could prove to be a major problem against a more established Cincinnati team and it’s really unclear how they plan on moving the ball.

The Bengals are getting healthier and should bounce back and win this game pretty easily, but 30% of games are decided by 4 points or less, so it’s tough to be really confident in Cincinnati as 5 point favorites, especially since the Texans’ defensive line should dominate the Bengals’ weak offensive line and could single handedly keep them in this game if they can give Andy Dalton trouble in the pocket. I still give the Bengals’ offensive line a better chance against Houston’s defensive line than I give the Texans’ offensive line against Cincinnati’s defensive line though. This is a low confidence pick which could become a medium confidence pick if the lines moves in a favorable direction.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

CLE +7.5 @ BAL (I’d take +7 too)

PHI +5 @ KC (I’d take this one down to +4)

WAS +3 @ LAR

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Houston Texans 9

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -5

Confidence: Low

2017 Week 1 NFL Pick Results

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2017

Straight Up: 9-6

Against the Spread: 7-8

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 2-1

Medium Confidence: 1-2

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 4-3

Low Confidence: 2-1

No Confidence: 1-4

Upset Picks: 1-2

Since 2013

Straight Up: 685-394-4 (63.43%)

Against the Spread: 559-496-28 (52.91%)

Pick of the Week: 41-28-2 (59.15%)

High Confidence: 61-49-3 (55.31%)

Medium Confidence: 167-121-5 (57.85%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 269-198-10 (57.44%)

Low Confidence: 147-146-9 (50.17%)

No Confidence: 143-152-9 (48.52%)

Upset Picks: 89-113 (44.06%)

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

This line favors the hometown Vikings by a field goal, suggesting these two teams are more or less equal. I have the Saints with two fewer wins than the Vikings in my season preview (10 vs. 8) and I have the Saints a few spots below the Vikings in my rankings, so I think we’re getting some line value with the home team. The Vikings finished last season 8-8, but improved both their offensive line and their running game in significant ways this off-season and should have better injury luck than last season. Those two things should add a couple wins to their total if Sam Bradford can have another solid season under center.

The Saints, meanwhile, traded away one of their top offensive players Brandin Cooks this off-season for a first round pick, which they eventually used on offensive tackle Ryan Ramcyzk, who will have to make the week 1 start in place of left tackle Terron Armstead, who is also one of the Saints’ best offensive players and will miss the start of the season after off-season shoulder surgery. In addition, they are without wide receiver Willie Snead for the first 3 games of the season with suspension, cornerback Delvin Breaux for the first half of the season with injury, and defensive tackle Nick Fairley for the season with a career threatening heart condition.

They finished last season 10th in first down rate differential despite a 7-9 record, but are not the same team as last season and could get a lot of worse if quarterback Drew Brees shows his age in his age 38 season. There isn’t enough here for me to put money on the Vikings as field goal favorites, especially since they are a heavy public lean this week for some reason, but they should be the right side. I think there’s also a strong possibility of a push in this game, especially if Brees leads a garbage time touchdown down 10 late in the 4th quarter.

Minnesota Vikings 27 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

The Chargers have won a combined 9 games over the past 2 seasons, but they have had so much bad luck in terms of injuries and close losses. They’ve ranked 26th and 31st over the past 2 seasons respectively in adjusted games lost to injury and are a ridiculous 4-16 in games decided by a touchdown or less over that time period. That type of bad luck tends to even out in the long run though and the Chargers have ranked 14th and 7th in first down rate differential over the past 2 seasons, so they definitely have hope going into 2017.

The Chargers have already had some injuries and enter this game without their top-2 draft picks (Mike Williams and Forrest Lamp) and starting middle linebacker Denzel Perryman. However, getting wide receiver Keenan Allen and cornerback Jason Verrett back from mostly lost seasons in 2016 is still going to have a huge impact on this team, as those are two of their best players. Even without them last season, the Chargers still managed the move the chains at a noticeably better rate than their opponents (+1.58%). Now with those two back, a new head coach in place in Anthony Lynn, and hopefully some better luck in close games coming along with him, the Chargers have a good chance to make the post-season in 2017.

Despite that, this line favors the home team Broncos by 3.5 points, suggesting they are better than the Chargers, which is not accurate. The Broncos still have major problems on offense and are not the same defense as they were when they won the Super Bowl, especially without defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who joined the Rams this off-season. The Broncos have lost 5 starters from their defense over the past 2 off-seasons (Malik Jackson, Sylvester Williams, Danny Trevathan, DeMarcus Ware, and TJ Ward) and 2015 1st round pick Shane Ray, who was supposed to replace the retiring Ware, will miss at least the first half of the season with injury.

They still have a good defense, but they won’t finish 2nd in first down rate allowed like they did last season, so their offense will have to play better, after finishing 30th in first down rate in 2016. With 2016 1st round pick quarterback Paxton Lynch still unable to beat out the mediocre Trevor Siemian for the starting job and with talented left tackle Russell Okung now on the Chargers, that seems unlikely. I have the Chargers as 2 wins higher than the Broncos in my season previews and I would take them as 3.5 point underdogs in a heartbeat, considering 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Chargers are also worth a bet as field goal favorites and they are one of my favorite picks of the week. The money line is also worth a bet as the Chargers have a good chance to win this straight up.

Los Angeles Chargers 23 Denver Broncos 20 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +3.5

Confidence: High

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

This line favors the Titans by 2.5 points, suggesting the Raiders are a little bit better than the Titans. I think that’s backward. The Raiders won 12 games last season, while the Titans won just 9, but I think the Titans enter the season as the better team. They finished last season 6th in first down rate and scored 10 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents, the 2nd best margin among non-playoff teams behind the Cardinals and the 6th best in the NFL overall. They missed the playoffs because of close losses and return touchdowns (-8 in that metric), but those tend to be fluky. They also addressed their only weaknesses this off-season, shoring up their secondary and receiving corps, and enter the season as arguably the most complete team in the NFL.

The Raiders, meanwhile, required a lot of luck to go 12-4, even though they lost Derek Carr with injury week 16. Eight of their 12 victories came by 7 points or fewer, including a 5-0 record in games decided by a field goal or less, and their point differential of +31 was just behind non-playoff teams in the Eagles and Ravens (both at +36). That’s despite the fact that they finished with a league best +16 turnover margin. Turnovers tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, so the Raiders won’t be able to count on that as much in 2017. Before Carr went down, this team ranked just 12th in first down rate differential and likely would not have gone on a long playoff run either way.

They’re a young team that added more talent this off-season, so they should still be considered the favorites in the AFC West, especially with the Chiefs losing All-Pro safety Eric Berry for the season, but I have the Titans a few spots ahead of them in my rankings and I have them with one more win in my season previews (11 vs. 10). They are one of my favorite sleeper teams this season and this gives me an opportunity to take them before their price gets too high. As long as this line is lower than a field goal, it’s worth putting money on the home team. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and I like the Titans’ chances of winning by a field goal or more.

Tennessee Titans 27 Oakland Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

This is one of the games where I just don’t have a strong lean either way. The Steelers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL, while the Browns are one of the worst, but this line is right about where it’s supposed to be at 9.5. I thought about going against the Steelers, who are a heavy public favorite despite not travelling well last season, but the Steelers always play well in Cleveland with Ben Roethlisberger (10-2 straight up, 7-4-1 ATS) and I think they’re the right side in pick ‘em leagues as long as the line is less than 10.

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -9.5

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

Ordinarily, I don’t like picking bad teams as big favorites, as teams that finish 6-10 or worse historically only cover the spread at about a 30% rate as favorite of more than 6 points. The Bills seem to be rebuilding, after trading away their top cornerback and top wide receiver before the start of the season, and could easily finish the season 6-10 or worse, but it’s also very early in the season and I think this line (-8) is justifiable against a team like the Jets.

The Jets were one of the worst teams in the league last season, finishing 29th in first down rate differential, and then they spent all off-season shedding expensive veterans in favor of unproven young players. On paper, they look like one of the worst teams in recent memory. I wouldn’t be confident in the Bills, who have major issues in the receiving corps and in the defensive back 7, but they should be able to put the Jets away pretty easily.

Buffalo Bills 20 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -8

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

The Lions made the playoffs last season, but they were arguably the worst team in the league to qualify for the post-season. Their 9-7 record was tied for worst among playoff teams and all 9 wins came against non-playoff teams, making them the only post-season qualifier to not defeat another post-season qualifier. Despite those wins coming against weak opponents, the Lions still only won one game by more than a touchdown all season. They finished 28th in first down rate differential, worst among playoff teams, and only made the post-season because they pulled out some close victories against bad teams. In the post-season, they were predictably destroyed in Seattle by the Seahawks in a 26-6 loss.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, did not make the playoffs, but were a much better team, even going into Seattle late in the season and winning straight up as massive underdogs. They finished 7-8-1, but their special teams swung more than a few games. They missed a game winning field goal against New England. They allowed a long punt return to set up the winning score against the Rams. They had a blocked punt and a number of missed field goals in the tie against the Seahawks. They allowed a kickoff return touchdown in a 6-point loss to the Vikings. And against Miami, in a 3-point loss, special teams cost them 7 points on 3 plays with a missed field goal, a missed extra point, and a blocked extra point that was returned for 2 points.

They could have been 12-4 if not for those screw ups and they finished the season #1 in first down rate differential, for the 2nd season in a row. On top of that, their +56 point differential was 7th in the NFL and best among non-playoff teams. They should have better luck in close games in 2017, but they also had a tough off-season. They lost 5 starters on defense, including defensive end Calais Campbell and safeties Tony Jefferson and DJ Swearinger, all of whom were among the best in the league at their position in 2016. They also enter the season without linebacker Deone Bucannon and possibly without left guard Mike Iupati thanks to injury.

They did a good job of finding cheap replacements this off-season, but they are still significantly less talented than last season and they are one of the oldest teams in the league. They may end up winning more games than last season, but they are unlikely to be as effective overall and could be very vulnerable defensive early in the season without Bucannon. The Lions are also without a key player, with left tackle Taylor Decker set to miss the start of the season after having shoulder injury, and the Cardinals should be the right side, but we aren’t getting a ton of line value with them as 2 point road favorites.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2

Confidence: Low