2017 Week 1 NFL Picks

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

The Panthers had the best record in the league in 2015, but then they had the biggest dropoff in the league in terms of win total in 2016, falling 9 games from 15-1 to 6-10. There are a number of reasons why they dropped off, but a big one was their inability to win close games. With 6 losses by a 3 points or fewer, they could have easily been 9-7 or 10-6 if a few plays had gone their way. They also lost cornerback Josh Norman in free agency the previous off-season and Cam Newton did not live up to his career best 2015 season. In addition, middle linebacker Luke Kuechly and center Ryan Kalil missed significant time with injury.

Norman isn’t coming back and Newton’s is unlikely to live up to 2015, but Kuechly and Kalil are healthy, their young secondary could take a step forward, they added two much needed offensive playmakers in the first two rounds of the draft in Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, and they should get better offensive line play, with Matt Kalil upgrading the left tackle spot and right guard Trai Turner likely to bounce back from a down 2016 season. This team probably won’t reach their 2015 level, but should still be one of the better teams in the NFC and compete with the Falcons for the NFC South title.

Given that, this line is too low. The 49ers are one of the worst teams in football and are missing top defensive back Jimmie Ward with injury. They are also in a tough spot given that they have to turn around and face the Seahawks in Seattle next week. The 49ers will almost definitely be double digit underdogs in that games and teams are 43-68 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 10+ points. I’d confidently lay the 5 points with the Panthers. This line should be higher than the touchdown the Falcons are favored by in Chicago.

Carolina Panthers 27 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina -5

Confidence: High

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

I thought about taking the Rams as 3.5 point home underdogs in this game in early August because I was concerned about Andrew Luck’s early season availability and I am kicking myself that I didn’t, now that Luck has been ruled out for at least the first week of the season, as he recovers from off-season shoulder surgery. Luck’s injury shifted this line in a big way, as the Rams are now favored by 4.5 points at home. That’s more points than they’re projected to be favored by all season, suggesting the oddsmakers see the Colts without Andrew Luck as being even worse than the 49ers, who are projected as 3.5 point underdogs in their week 17 trip to Los Angeles.

The Colts are certainly up there (or down there) with the worst teams in the league without Luck, not just because they have a weak supporting cast, but because the dropoff from Luck to journeyman backup Scott Tolzien is one of the biggest starter to backup quarterback dropoffs in the league. The Colts also aren’t just missing Luck, as they also start the season without center Ryan Kelly, top cornerback Vontae Davis, and safety/linebacker Clayton Geathers. However, the Rams have a huge absence that doesn’t seem to be getting enough attention, as defensive tackle Aaron Donald, arguably the best defensive player in the league, is still holding out for a better contract and will not play this week, significantly hurting this defense.

Even with a new offensive coaching staff, a new #1 wide receiver (Sammy Watkins), and a new left tackle (Andrew Whitworth), the Rams’ offense should still struggle this season, unless Jared Goff can take a huge leap forward from last season, so the Rams need Donald on that defensive line if they are going to be competitive this season. Maybe outside of the Jets, it’s hard to justify the Rams without Donald being favored by 4.5 points over anyone, especially considering about 30% of games are decided by 4 points or fewer. I wouldn’t be confident in Indianapolis at all, but they’re the better choice here in against the spread pick ‘em leagues.

Los Angeles Rams 17 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +4.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

This line is at 3 in favor of the hometown Cincinnati Bengals, which suggests these two teams are more or less even, but I have the Bengals with 3 more wins than the Ravens in my season preview. The Ravens finished with the better record last season, finishing 8-8, while the Bengals finished 6-9-1, but the Bengals had the advantage in first down rate differential, finishing 12th (1.03%), while the Ravens finished 25th (-1.37%). The Bengals’ record was largely the result of going 1-5-1 in games decided by a touchdown. They finished the season with one more offensive touchdown than they allowed, while the Ravens finished -8 in that category.

The Bengals lost their top two offensive linemen in free agency, with left Andrew Whitworth signing with the Rams and right guard Kevin Zeitler signing with the Browns, which obviously hurts, but they have both AJ Green and Tyler Eifert back healthy at the same time, which was a rarity last season. Add in their top-2 draft picks, wide receiver John Ross and running back Joe Mixon, and the Bengals have considerably more offensive talent around Dalton than they did last season. They have some issues, but could easily compete for their 6th trip to the playoffs in 7 seasons in a weak AFC.

The Ravens, on the other hand, lost 3 starters on the offensive line this off-season, including right tackle Ricky Wagner, who was one of the best in the game at his position. They also are without 2 of 3 their top-3 receivers from last season and lost their most promising running back, Kenneth Dixon, for the season with injury. Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead were added in free agency, but both are veterans coming off serious injuries and injuries have already thinned their depth on both sides of the ball significantly, with 11 players already on injured reserve.

Their offense finished last season 27th in first down rate and figures to be one of the worst in the league again in 2017, while their defense is unlikely to be as good as we are used to from them. Their secondary is strong, with Tony Jefferson and Brandon Carr coming in as free agents and Marlon Humphrey being added in the draft, but they lost their best cornerback from 2016, Tavon Young, to injury and have very little experience in the front 7, after losing 3 starters upfront this off-season. This looks like a down year for the Ravens.

Despite that, I am not jumping on Cincinnati -3 for a couple reasons. For one, Cincinnati is missing a few starters on defense to start the season, with top linebacker Vontaze Burfict suspended for 3 weeks, cornerback Adam Jones suspended for 1 week, and safety Shawn Williams nursing an arm injury. On top of that, the Bengals have to turn around and play another game in 4 days when they host the Texans on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are just 58-84 ATS before Thursday Night games since 2008, including 2-4 ATS in week 1. The Bengals may have split their focus a little bit this week with two games coming up in 5 days, which could hurt them in this game. They’re a risky pick this week, even if they still do have a slight edge in talent.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Baltimore Ravens 16

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -3

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

Despite losing last season’s Super Bowl in heartbreaking fashion, the Falcons still have a lot of reason to be hopeful. They enter the season with their core intact, with little off-season roster turnover, and are among the most talented teams in the league. Their offense might not be quite as efficient as they were last season, when they finished with a first down rate of 43.94%, 3.20% higher than any other team in the league, but their young defense stepped it up in the second half of last season and should finish better than last season’s 27th in first down rate allowed, especially with top cornerback Desmond Trufant returning from a pectoral injury that ended his season after 9 games in 2016.

Unfortunately for them, the track record of Super Bowl losers is not great. A Super Bowl loser hasn’t made it back to the Super Bowl since the 1994 Bills and a Super Bowl loser hasn’t won the Super Bowl since the 1973 Dolphins. On top of that, Super Bowl losers are just 2-15 ATS in week 1 games since 2000. Whether it’s mental or physical or a little bit of both, there seems to be some sort of hangover effect of going that far, playing all those games, and coming up just short. The Falcons should still have a strong season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out of the gates a little slow.

Their opponent this week is no pushover either, despite being touchdown underdogs. The Bears went 3-13 in 2016, but are a prime candidate to make a leap forward in wins. Their record last season was largely the result of a poor record in close games (1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less), a league worst -20 turnover margin, and the most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. Turnover margins, records in close games, and injuries tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis and if the Bears can stay healthier, pull out a couple more close victories, and play more turnover neutral football, they could easily make a significant jump in wins. They finished last season 13th in first down rate differential. Their passing offense and secondary leave a lot to be desired, but they have a strong run game and front 7. They could easily make this a much closer game than people are expecting, especially if the Falcons come out flat. It’s worth taking the touchdown with the Bears.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

These teams finished with the two best records in the AFC last season and earned the AFC’s top-2 seeds, but the Chiefs were not as good as their 12-4 record suggested. Six of their 12 wins came by 8 points or fewer and many of them were decided by a turnover or a return touchdown going in the Chiefs’ favor. They finished last season with a +7 return touchdown margin and a +16 turnover margin, both best in the NFL. Unfortunately, turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. On average, a team that has a +15 turnover margin or better posts a turnover margin on average 12 points worse the following season and wins an average of 3 fewer games. If they don’t win the turnover battle as much, it’ll be tough for them to match the 5 defensive touchdowns they had last season.

If the Chiefs want to match or come close to last year’s 12 wins, they’ll have to win the first down battle more consistently because they won’t be able to rely on takeaways and return touchdowns as much. Unfortunately, the Chiefs had 37 fewer first downs than their opponents last season, scored just one more offensive touchdown than their opponents, and finished 24th in first down rate differential. Their opponents picked up first downs at a 1.04% higher rate than they did. There’s a reason why the Steelers were able to come into Kansas City and beat them in their first playoff game after the bye.

The Patriots, meanwhile, had 57 more first downs and 24 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents last season and finished 2nd in first down rate differential, en route to winning their 5th Super Bowl. Many believe the Patriots will repeat this season, as they were able to win last year without Rob Gronkowski, who returns from injury, and they add wide receiver Brandin Cooks and cornerback Stephon Gilmore this off-season. The Patriots took a hit when they lost #2 receiver Julian Edelman for the season and have also lost Rob Ninkovich (retirement), Shea McClellin, Cyrus Jones, and Derek Rivers over the past few weeks, leaving them thin at the slot cornerback and edge rusher positions.

The Patriots are still one of the best teams in the league though and the Chiefs enter this game with their own injury issues, losing running back Spencer Ware for the season and edge rusher Tamba Hali for at least the first half of the season. New England has the obvious talent edge and defending Super Bowl champs have had a good week 1 track record in recent years (8-1-1 ATS at home on Thursday night over the last 10 instances). This line is pretty steep at 9, so I can’t take the Patriots with confidence, but they should be able to open the season with a double digit victory.

New England Patriots 31 Kansas City Chiefs 20

Pick against the spread: New England -9

Confidence: Low

2013-2016 NFL Pick Results

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2016

Straight Up: 170-95-2 (64.04%)

Against the Spread: 130-127-10 (50.56%)

Pick of the Week: 11-6-0 (64.71%)

High Confidence: 12-17-2 (41.94%)

Medium Confidence: 42-26-4 (61.11%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 65-49-6 (56.67%)

Low Confidence: 35-40-2 (46.75%)

No Confidence: 30-38-2 (44.29%)

Upset Picks: 26-25 (50.98%)

Since 2013

Straight Up: 676-388-4 (63.48%)

Against the Spread: 552-488-28 (53.00%)

Pick of the Week: 40-28-2 (58.57%)

High Confidence: 59-48-3 (54.50%)

Medium Confidence: 166-119-5 (58.10%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 265-195-10 (57.45%)

Low Confidence: 145-145-9 (50.00%)

No Confidence: 142-148-9 (49.00%)

Upset Picks: 88-111 (44.22%)