2017 Week 16 NFL Picks

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals: 2017 Week 16 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-12) at Arizona Cardinals (6-8)

This is one of the cases where I wish I had taken the early line last week, as the Cardinals were ridiculous 7-point favorites over the Giants last week on the early line. The line has since moved to 3.5. The Giants played decent last week in a close home loss to the Eagles, while the Cardinals lost by 5 in Washington, but those aren’t the kind of results that typically trigger significant line movements like that. Perhaps the odds makers just realized they had made a big mistake with the original line.

Even at 3.5, I still like the Giants a little bit, as I have the Cardinals only favored by a point. They’ve benched quarterback Blaine Gabbert, just a couple weeks after weirdly talking him up as a potential quarterback of the future, and will turn back to veteran Drew Stanton, who is arguably worse. He hasn’t completed more than 50% of his passes or averaged more than 6 yards per attempt since 2014 and has more interceptions than touchdowns in his career. He’s also playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, with 4 of their 5 week 1 starters out for the season upfront, and he doesn’t have a running game to support him, with both David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out for the season as well.

Defensively, they are a solid unit, but not as good as they were earlier in the season, before safety Tyvon Branch and outside linebacker Markus Golden got hurt. The Giants arguably have the better defense in this one, in addition to having the better quarterback. That will depend in large part on whether or not safety Landon Collins plays through his ankle injury this week, but I think the Giants are worth a small bet at 3.5 even with his status uncertain. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less and the Cardinals have just 3 wins by more than a field goal all season.

Arizona Cardinals 17 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: 2017 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)

The Buccaneers are just 4-10, in the middle of a disappointing injury riddled season that started with strong playoff hopes, but they’ve competitive in most of their games and they have been better than their record suggests. Just 4 of their 10 losses have come by 7 points or more and they rank 12th in first down rate differential at 0.92%, as they have 15 more first downs than they’ve allowed. Their big issue has been their inability to create big plays (just 4 plays of 40 yards or more, 2nd fewest in the league), but that tends to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so I don’t hold that against them too much.

Last week, the Buccaneers kept it close with the Falcons, losing by 3 in a game they won the first down rate battle by 6.65%. That was despite the fact that the Buccaneers were without outside linebacker Lavonte David and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, two of their best defensive players, who could both return from 1-game absences after getting in some limited practices this week. The Buccaneers could easily keep it close this week in another tough divisional matchup against the Panthers, especially if one or both of McCoy and David are out there.

The Panthers have a strong record of 10-4, but they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out, as they have just 3 wins by more than 8 points and are 7-1 in games decided by 8 points or fewer. They’re also going to be without linebacker Thomas Davis and right guard Trai Turner this week, a pair of important players. Given that and how many close games these two teams have played this season, I have this line calculated at Carolina -7, even factoring in the uncertainty with David and McCoy.

The Panthers are also in a tough spot, with a huge divisional game on deck in Atlanta, a game that could have implications in both the NFC South and the NFC Wild Card races. Divisional home favorites are just 26-62 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, which the Panthers definitely will be next week. On top of that, double digit favorites are just 58-78 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs. The Buccaneers have a tough game next week too, as they host the Saints, a game in which they are 8.5-point underdogs on the early line. Teams are just 25-50 ATS before being home underdogs of 7+, as it’s tough to be fully focused with a tough home game on deck.

I like their spot a little bit better than Carolina’s tough, especially with the Panthers coming off back-to-back tough wins over the Vikings and Packers. They could definitely be a little flat this week. I also like the line value we’re getting with the Buccaneers a lot, as they are 10.5-point underdogs. This is just a small bet because of the uncertainty with McCoy and David, but the Buccaneers should be the smart play this week. If this line stays put and both McCoy and David play, I will consider raising this bet.

Sunday Update: Both McCoy and David are active, but this line dropped to 10, so I will not be raising this bet.

Carolina Panthers 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +10.5

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (8-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

The Seahawks were embarrassed at home last week by the Rams 42-7 in a big divisional game. As a result, this line has shifted from Dallas -3 to Dallas -5. It’s understandable, but I think it’s an overreaction, considering the Seahawks were without their stud linebackers KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner for most of that game. Both of them are not listed on the injury report this week, a huge boost for this team as they try to bounce back in a pivotal game.

Teams tend to bounce back off of blowout losses anyway, going 54-31 ATS since 2002 after a loss by 35 or more. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed after getting blown out. The Seahawks might not necessarily be overlooked, but they are definitely underrated as 5-point underdogs and the they have done especially well off of a loss in the Pete Carroll era, going 23-13 ATS, including 5-1 ATS off of a double digit loss.

Even if this line was still 3, I would still take the Seahawks. They are without cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Kam Chancellor for the season, but their secondary has held up pretty well, as guys like Byron Maxwell, Justin Coleman, Shaq Griffin, and Bradley McDougald have stepped up. Remember, this team is only a few weeks away from beating the Carson Wentz led Eagles, even without Sherman and Chancellor. With Wright and Wagner back in the lineup, they should have a strong defensive performance this week.

The Cowboys get Ezekiel Elliott back this week, but they could be without left tackle Tyron Smith, who was very limited in practice this week after leaving last week’s game with a knee injury. The media will likely focus on Elliott’s return, but the absence of Smith could be even bigger, given how much quarterback Dak Prescott struggled without his talented blind side protector when he missed time earlier in the season. The Cowboys actually ran the ball pretty well in Elliott’s absence, but they don’t have anyone that comes close to replacing Smith at left tackle. Even if Smith plays, it’ll likely be at less than 100%.

Given that, I have these two teams about even, at best, so the Cowboys shouldn’t be favored by anymore than a field goal. I actually have this line at Dallas -2 because of their lack of homefield advantage in recent years.  They are 35-28 on the road since 2010 (36-27 ATS), with a scoring differential of +0.30 points per game, as opposed to 32-33 at home (23-42 ATS), with a scoring differential of +1.26 points per game. The Cowboys have a national fan base and tend to draw fans wherever they go, so they are at less of an advantage when they play at home. I like the Seahawks a lot this week.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +190

Pick against the spread: Seattle +5

Confidence: High

Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-9)

Since blowing a 20-10 4th quarter lead against the Steelers in week 13, the Bengals have lost back-to-back games against the Bears and Vikings by a combined 53 points. However, they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries over those last two games, particularly on defense, where they have been without stud linebacker Vontaze Burfict. Now healthier, I like the Bengals’ chances of bouncing back this week. Teams tend to bounce back after back-to-back blowout losses anyway, going 47-32 ATS since 2002 after two straight losses by 21 or more points.

It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed after back-to-back bad showings. I can’t 100% guarantee that the Bengals will be overlooked or embarrassed this week, but they definitely appear underrated. This line was Detroit -1 a week ago, but now it’s Detroit -3.5, despite Burfict’s return. Two weeks ago, I think this line would have been Cincinnati -3, after their near win in Pittsburgh. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so that’s a huge swing.

Even at Cincinnati -3, I might take the Bengals. The Lions are 8-6 and went 9-7 last season, but they didn’t beat a single playoff team in 2016 and have just one win against a team with a winning record in 2017. In addition to having a weak strength of victory, they also have a weak margin of victory, with their average win over the past 2 seasons coming by 7.12 points and 7 of 17 wins coming by a field goal or less, very relevant considering this line is 3.5. They just rank 27th in first down rate differential at -3.87%, after finishing last season 28th. The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 24th in that metric at -1.90%, despite two terrible performances in a row.

The Lions have good quarterback play and a strong passing game, but they can’t run the ball and they rank dead last in first down rate allowed. They are also very banged up on the offensive line right now. While the Bengals are getting healthier, the Lions will be without center Travis Swanson and right guard TJ Lang, while right tackle Ricky Wagner is highly questionable after missing last week’s game and being limited in practice all week this week. The Lions won last week at home against the Bears with a banged up offensive line, but that was a mere 10-point win, despite Mitch Trubisky throwing a trio of interceptions, including 2 in the red zone. Turnover margin is very unpredictable on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t be able to count on that in this one. I like the Bengals a lot at +3.5.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: High

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets: 2017 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (7-7) at New York Jets (5-9)

The Chargers lost last week 30-13 in Kansas City, but the game was closer than the final score suggested. The Chargers actually led 13-10 in the 3rd quarter before turning the ball over on 4 straight possessions. Turnover margins tend to be unpredictable on a week-to-week basis though (teams that have a -4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week), so I don’t expect the Chargers’ turnover problems to continue into this week. They are still +7 in turnover margin on the season anyway and they are facing a Jets team that is starting backup quarterback Bryce Petty, who has thrown at least one interception in each of his first 5 career starts.

This line dropped from 10 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week, crossing two key numbers (7 and 10), which is a huge overreaction to the Chargers’ loss in Kansas City. I am still very high on the Chargers, who still have a +56 point differential on the season, despite the 17-point loss last week. If you exclude their 2 games against the Chiefs, who seem to have their number and who won the turnover battle by 7 in their 2 games, that point differential is +87. They are just 7-7, but their other 5 losses have come by a combined 18 points, with three of them coming against the Eagles, Patriots, and Jaguars, who are among the best teams in the NFL.

In first down rate differential, they are even better, as they rank 4th in the NFL at +4.80%, despite the middling record. Making that even more impressive is the fact that they have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles. With a reasonable homefield advantage and better luck in close games, they could easily be 9-5 and in the driver’s seat in the AFC West, despite the two losses to the Chiefs. Outside of Los Angeles, the Chargers have been a great team against the spread this season, going 5-2 ATS, with one of their non-covers coming in an 8-point loss in New England as 7.5-point underdogs. That actually dates back a few years, as the Chargers had next to no homefield advantage in their final years in San Diego. Since 2015, they are 15-8 ATS on the road.

The Jets have had success at home this season, going 6-1 ATS, with the one non-cover coming in a 8-point loss as 6-point underdogs against the Panthers, a game in which the Jets led until the Panthers had two return touchdowns in the fourth quarter. This is where I think their home success runs out. Not only are the Chargers a great road team, but this isn’t the same team without quarterback Josh McCown, who is out for the season with a broken hand. McCown was having one of the best seasons of his career prior to going down and was the main reason this team was surprisingly winning some games, despite having one of the weakest rosters in the NFL.

Petty, meanwhile, is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Outside of the Browns and maybe the Colts, the Jets are the worst team in the league right now with Petty under center. I still have this line at -10, so I’ll happily take the Chargers at -6.5, especially since the Jets are in a very tough spot with a game in New England on deck. Underdogs of 6+ are 39-60 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again, as it’s very tough for inferior teams to compete against superior teams when they have a tough upcoming game. On top of that, teams are just 32-52 ATS since 2014 before being double digit underdogs. If the Jets get down big early, they could quit in this meaningless game with a bigger game on deck. This is my Pick of the Week.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 New York Jets 10

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens: 2017 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)

The Ravens are 8-6 and in the driver’s seat for a wild card spot in the AFC, but they are a little overrated. They’ve had the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL in terms of opponents strength of schedule and that doesn’t even take into account that they’ve gotten to face a number of backup quarterbacks. Of their 8 wins, only one has come against a team that currently has a winning record, the Detroit Lions, who also have next to no success against quality football teams. Four of those wins have come against teams with backup quarterbacks, the EJ Manuel led Raiders, the Tom Savage led Texans, the Matt Moore led Dolphins, and the Brett Hundley led Packers. Their other 3 wins have come against the Browns (twice) and the Bengals.

They have an impressive margin of victory and rank 7th in the NFL in point differential at +89, but that’s largely because of a league best +17 turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so that’s not something the Ravens are necessarily going to be able to count on going forward, especially as their competition gets harder in the post-season. They rank just 10th in first down rate differential at 1.72%, despite the easy schedule. The Ravens are still a top-6 team in the AFC and a deserving playoff team, but if they were in the much tougher NFC and faced a tougher schedule, they’d probably be the 10th or 11th best team in the conference.

The good news for them is their schedule doesn’t get any harder this week, as the host the 3-11 Indianapolis Colts. As bad as the Colts’ record is, it’s arguable they are even worse than that suggests. Their 3 wins have come against the Browns, 49ers, and Texans, 3 of the worst teams in the league, by a combined 12 points, while their 11 losses have come by a combined 155 points. Their point differential at -143 is 2nd worst in the NFL, despite the fact that they actually have a positive turnover margin at +4. They enter this game dead last in first down rate differential at -6.84% and have a league high 5 losses in which they won the turnover margin. They have also lost safety Malik Hooker, cornerback Rashaan Melvin, outside linebacker John Simon, defensive end Henry Anderson, and left guard Jack Mewhort in the last couple months, so this team is even worse than they were earlier in the year.

The Ravens are in a good spot to cover because they have another relatively easy game on deck, with the Bengals coming to town next week. Favorites of 6+ are 72-43 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business against inferior teams when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. Unfortunately, this line has strangely shot up from Baltimore -10 on the early line last week to Baltimore -13.5 this week, so we’re not getting any line value with the Ravens.

The Ravens easily could blow out the Colts like they have with several other bad teams, but their offense is mediocre, so I’m not confident that they can do that without winning the turnover battle, which is far from a guarantee. I have this line calculated at -11, so we’re actually getting some line value with the Colts. The Ravens are my pick for pick ‘em purposes because of the good spot they’re in, but I wouldn’t recommend betting either side.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Indianapolis Colts 10

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -13.5

Confidence: None

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (11-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-7)

The Packers squeaked out overtime victories over a pair of bad teams, the Buccaneers and Browns, to stay alive in the playoff race with Aaron Rodgers returning to action week 15. Unfortunately for the Packers, the schedule got tougher and Rodgers was not 100% in his return, as the Packers fell to the Panthers 31-24, ending their playoff hopes. Now with the season essentially over, the Packers have shut down Rodgers for the season and will turn back to backup Brett Hundley for the final 2 games of the season.

Rodgers isn’t the only one that is going to be missing from action in this one, as wide receiver Davante Adams is out with a concussion, while outside linebackers Nick Perry and Clay Matthews and right guard Jahri Evans are likely out after missing practice all week. The Vikings, meanwhile, have no notable injuries and have their offensive line back together healthy for the first time since week 8, with left tackle Riley Reiff, right tackle Mike Remmers, and center Pat Elflein all healthy after missing time in recent weeks.

Unfortunately, this line has swung 12 points since Minnesota was 3-point underdogs on the early line last week, so we’ve lost all line value with the Vikings. Even with all of the injuries, I have this line calculated at Minnesota -6.5. It’s a shame because I love the spot the Vikings are in. The Packers’ season is over and they have another tough divisional game next week in Detroit. The Vikings, meanwhile, need every win they can get as they compete for the #1 seed in the NFC and have another easy divisional game on deck, with the Bears coming to town.

Favorites of 6+ are 72-43 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again, while underdogs of 6+ are 39-60 ATS over that same time period before being underdogs of 6+ again. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 23-7 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be underdogs of 6+ again. Superior teams tend to take care of business with another easy game on deck, especially if their inferior opponent has another tough game on deck to potentially be a distraction. I wish we were getting a better line, but the Vikings should be the right choice for pick ‘em pool purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Green Bay Packers 13

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -9

Confidence: Low