2017 Week 2 NFL Picks

Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Rams: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (0-1) at Los Angeles Rams (1-0)

The Rams had an impressive week 1 performance, dismantling the Indianapolis Colts in a 46-9 victory. They had a first down rate differential of +13.97%, 2nd best in the NFL last week, and scored 16 points just with their defense (two pick sixes and a safety). Now they get defensive tackle Aaron Donald back from his holdout, which should be a big boost to this defense, even if he’s rusty and on a pitch count in his first game back. As a result, some people are talking about the Rams as a surprise team this season and this line has moved to compensate, going from a pick ‘em on the early line last week to now -3 in favor of the Rams, the 2nd biggest line movement of the week.

I typically like to fade big line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single game and this is no exception. As good as the Rams looked last week, they were facing an Indianapolis team that is arguably the worst in the NFL without all of the players they are missing, including quarterback Andrew Luck. On paper, they Rams still have one of the least talented teams in the league. That could change if Jared Goff continues to develop, Sammy Watkins continues to stay healthy, and this defense continues to significantly outperform their talented level under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. That’s certainly a possibility, but I am not sold on this team yet.

Even if I didn’t think the line movement was an overreaction, I would still disagree with this line, which suggests that these two teams are more or less even. When I looked at week 2’s early lines last week, Washington PK in Los Angeles was one that stood out to me even then. Now we’re getting a full field goal with the visitors. That doesn’t just give us line value with the Redskins, but it also puts the Rams in a tough spot, as favorites are 58-86 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Coming off of a huge win, with another game in 4 games, the Rams could get caught by surprise a little here, which would really hurt them against a superior opponent.

Not only are the Rams a little overrated right now, but I think the Redskins are underrated too. The common assessment of the Redskins seems to be that they’re not as good as last season because they lost a pair of 1000+ yard receivers in free agency (DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon), but they also added a 1000+ yard receiver (Terrelle Pryor), they have Jordan Reed and Josh Doctson healthy for now, and they could get a breakout year from slot receiver Jamison Crowder, so I don’t think this receiving corps is much worse than it was last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, they’re arguably better, with DJ Swearinger, Zach Brown, and Jonathan Allen added this off-season. They might not make the playoffs, but I don’t think they’re much worse than last season and they should be right in the mix for a playoff spot again. They lost week 1 by double digits at home, but they were playing an underrated Philadelphia team that could end up being one of the better teams in the league, so I don’t hold that against them as much as the general public might. The Redskins are a smart bet both against the spread and on the money line.

Washington Redskins 23 Los Angeles Rams 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)

The Titans and Jaguars were both high on my underrated list coming into the season. The Jaguars got their season off on the right foot with a 29-7 victory in Houston, while the Titans lost at home 26-16 to the Raiders, but I think the Titans are the significantly better of these two teams. They finished last season 6th in first down rate differential and significantly improved their two biggest needs this off-season with the additions of wide receivers Eric Decker and Corey Davis and cornerbacks Logan Ryan and Adoree Jackson. Their week 1 loss came against a tough opponent in a game they were in throughout, so I’m not too worried about them.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, beat an overrated Houston team in a game in which they won the turnover battle by 4 and returned a fumble for a touchdown, something that they’re not going to be able to count on every week. Turnover margins are very inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis because they are the result of such a small percentage of snaps. The Jaguars are a perfect example of that, as they had a -16 turnover margin last season (3rd worst in the NFL) and now lead the league in that figure. Even though the Jaguars beat the Texans by 22, they only won the first down rate battle by 0.22% and surrendered 4 more first downs than they gained (23-19).

Even worse, they lost #1 receiver Allen Robinson for the season with a torn ACL, which is a huge blow to an already weak passing game. They’ll still be a competitive opponent going forward because of their defense and they could compete for a playoff spot in the weak AFC if they can continue running the ball well, but the Titans are a significantly better and more well-rounded team. That’s especially true if talented Jacksonville cornerback Jalen Ramsey does not play. He did not practice all week with an ankle injury and is considered highly questionable for this one. Even if he does play, he could easily be less than 100%, which would hurt this defense.

This line is low enough at 1.5 that the Titans really only have to win straight up (only about 4% of games are decided by 1 point). It also helps the Titans that the Jaguars have to travel to London to face the Ravens next week. Teams are 10-20 ATS all-time before having to fly over to London for the week, which makes sense considering how taxing London trips can be for team’s schedules (hence why teams usually go on bye afterwards). The Titans are a smart bet here.

Tennessee Titans 19 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -1.5

Confidence: Medium

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

Coming into the season, I had the Ravens winning just 6 games. They pulled the week 1 upset in Cincinnati last week, shutting out the Bengals in a 20-0 victory, but the Bengals are having major offensive problems after losing their top-2 offensive linemen in free agency, not scoring a single touchdown so far through 2 games (including this week’s Thursday night game). The Ravens have a strong secondary, but are very inexperienced in the front 7, with first-time starters at 4 of 7 spots, so I don’t expect them to be that dominant defensively all season.

That will expose their offense, which has been weak over the past couple seasons and is arguably as weak as it’s ever been right now, thanks to free agent departures and injuries. They’ve lost 3 starting offensive linemen (Alex Lewis, Jeremy Zuttah, Ricky Wagner), 2 of their top-3 receivers (Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta), and their most promising running back (Kenneth Dixon) from last season. They added veterans like Jeremy Maclin, Austin Howard, and Danny Woodhead to plug holes in free agency, but none of those players are spectacular and Woodhead is already out for an extended period of time with injury. Injuries have seriously thinned depth on both sides of the ball for the Ravens, as they now have a league-high 12 players on injured reserve.

Despite that, they’re favored by more than a touchdown (7.5) here at home against the Browns. That’s not just because the Ravens are an overrated team, but also because the general public still thinks the Browns are as bad as they were last season. They’re far from a playoff team, but I think they’re noticeably improved on both sides of the ball from a year ago and aren’t that much less talented than the Ravens. They’ve drastically improved their offensive line and have taken a big step forward defensively, even if they still have issues on that side of the ball. We’re getting great value with the visitors here.

The Ravens don’t really blow teams out anyway because they tend to play low scoring games. They have just 3 wins by more than a touchdown over the past 2+ seasons. One of those wins came last season in Baltimore against the Browns, but these two teams are not the same as the last time they met. The Ravens are also in a tough spot having to travel to London to play the Jaguars next week. Teams are 10-20 ATS all-time before having to fly over to London for the week, which makes sense considering how taxing London trips can be for team’s schedules (hence why teams usually go on bye afterwards). The Browns have a very good chance to keep this one close throughout and have an outside shot at winning outright. This is one of my favorite plays of the week.

Baltimore Ravens 16 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +7.5

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

The Chiefs are one of the teams I underestimated going into the season. I knew they got significantly better down the stretch last season when Justin Houston returned from injury and talented rookies Chris Jones and Tyreek Hill started seeing more playing time, but their victory over the Patriots showed just how much better, especially when you add impressive 3rd round rookie Kareem Hunt into the mix. However, while the Chiefs got the win, they lost something more important when safety Eric Berry tore his achilles in the 4th quarter, ending his season.

Berry is one of the top safeties in the league and was having the game of his life covering Rob Gronkowski before the injury, so that’s a crushing blow for this defense. Getting the upset win was nice, but Berry’s absence is likely to cost them more than a win the rest of the way and puts a damper on the outlook on this whole team. However, if you ask the casual betting public, the only thing that was important was the win, as they are still on the Chiefs despite the fact that this line has actually shifted from -4 in favor of the Chiefs over the Eagles on the early line last week to -5 this week. The line has even moved up to 5.5 and 6 in some places.

That line shift occurred not only in spite of the Berry injury, but also in spite of the Eagles having an impressive week 1 as well, winning by double digits on the road against a capable Redskins team. The Eagles were near the top of my underrated teams list coming into the season, with Carson Wentz going into his 2nd year in the league, stud right tackle Lane Johnson no longer suspended (they went 5-1 with him and 2-8 without him last season), and the Eagles’ record in close games likely to regress to the mean (1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less last season). They look good so far and should compete for the NFC East with the Cowboys. They lost cornerback Ronald Darby for 4-6 weeks with a dislocated ankle, which hurts because the recently acquired ex-Bill was their top cornerback, but that’s not nearly as big of a loss as Berry.

Even if the Chiefs still had Berry, I’d say these two teams were about even and this line should be around 3 in favor of the hometown Chiefs. Without Berry, this should be closer to 1 or a pick ‘em, so we’re getting a lot of line value with the Eagles. I locked this in at 5 earlier in the week, but you can get it at 6 now in some places. Either way, we’re getting a ton of value with the visiting team here and the Eagles are my Pick of the Week. There is great value with the money line too, as the Eagles are a 2:1 underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +200

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

The Colts had an embarrassing week 1, losing 46-9 in Los Angeles to a Rams team that won 4 games last season. They only managed 10 first downs to the Rams’ 19 and moved the chains at a 13.97% worse rate than their opponents. It’s clear this is not the same team without all of the players they are missing with injuries, most notably quarterback Andrew Luck, but also center Ryan Kelly, cornerback Vontae Davis, and safety Clayton Geathers. All four of those players will miss this week as well.

The Cardinals also had a nightmare week 1 too, though in a different way. They only lost by 12 in Detroit, but lost star running back David Johnson and left tackle DJ Humphries for an extended period of time with injury. The Cardinals jumped out to a 10-0 lead and led 17-9 in the third quarter, but were outscored 26-6 the rest of the way against an overrated Detroit team that is also missing it’s left tackle and won just one game by more than a touchdown in 2016. The injuries, especially the injury to Johnson, were a big factor in the Cardinals’ declining performance throughout the game.

Johnson and Humphries are not the only Cardinals who will be out this week, as left guard Mike Iupati, tight end Jermaine Gresham, and wide receiver John Brown are also expected to miss this game after playing week 1, while middle linebacker Deone Bucannon remains out after off-season surgery. The Cardinals probably get defensive end Robert Nkemdiche back this week, but he’s hardly the reinforcements they need. The Cardinals also lost 5 defensive starters in free agency this off-season, including stud defensive end Calais Campbell and talented safeties DJ Swearinger and Tony Jefferson, so this team is a far cry from their 2016 version.

Despite both of these teams’ rough first weeks, this line has shifted from 3.5 in favor of the Cardinals to 7 since the early line last week, the biggest line movement in any game from last week to this week. Missing as much as they currently are, the Cardinals shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown on the road against anyone, but the casual betting public sees the Colts as unbettable right now, which is why the public money keeps pouring in on the Cardinals despite the line movement. The public always loses money in the long run, so I’m always weary of heavy public favorites like this. I don’t think the casual public understands how bad the Cardinals are right now given all of their injuries.

The casual public is also likely underestimating the effect of the Colts’ quarterback change from Scott Tolzien to Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has only been with the team for a couple weeks, acquired from the Patriots before final cuts, but he’s undoubtedly more talented than Scott Tolzien (who now has 9 career interceptions to just 2 career touchdowns) and he should be a significant upgrade, even on a limited playbook. He also gives them dual threat ability as a passer and runner than Tolzien did not give them and should do a much better job of getting the ball to what is still an above average receiving corps.

The Colts are also in a good bounce back spot after that horrible defeat, while the Cardinals could overlook the Colts with a much tougher game next week at home against Dallas on Monday Night Football. Teams are 53-28 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ or more (16-8 ATS since 2012), as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a huge loss. You can definitely argue the Colts will be all three of those things this week. Meanwhile, road favorites like the Cardinals are just 17-32 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs, which the Cardinals are expected to be next week against the Cowboys. With a major tougher game on deck, the Cardinals might not have been completely focused in preparation throughout the week and that could show on the field. I’m not super excited about betting on the Colts, but we’re getting too much value here to not make a small bet.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (0-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)

When I saw this line was -3 in favor of the Bengals last week, I thought about locking in the pick a week in advance. Three points is usually the standard adjustment for homefield advantage, so that line suggested these two teams were about even. I had Cincinnati 4 wins better than the Texans in my season previews and several spots ahead of them in my rankings, so -3 would have been a great value. Non-divisional home favorites also tend to cover on Thursday nights because it’s tough for an inferior team to travel on a short week and face a relatively unfamiliar opponent. Teams are 27-13 ATS all-time as non-divisional home favorites on Thursday Night when both teams are on short weeks (excluding week 1 and games with teams coming off byes).

This line has since moved to 5, so I am kicking myself for not locking it in at 3. Both teams looked bad last week, with the Bengals getting shutout at home by Ravens and the Texans getting sacked 10 times in a home loss to the Jaguars, but the oddsmakers clearly thought Houston’s performance was much more concerning, hence the line movement. I agree the Bengals have a much better chance of making week 1 look like a fluke than the Texans, but we still lose significant value with that line movement.

We are still getting some value with the Bengals though. I thought they were the clearly better team coming into the season and now Cincinnati gets cornerback Adam Jones back from suspension and possibly safety Shawn Williams and wide receiver John Ross back from injury, while Texans will likely be without middle linebacker Brian Cushing, right guard Jeff Allen, and their top-3 tight ends due to injury. That’s in addition to #2 wide receiver Will Fuller still being out with a broken collarbone and left tackle Duane Brown continuing to hold out.

Another wrinkle in this matchup is the Texans benching quarterback Tom Savage for first round rookie Deshaun Watson at halftime of last week’s loss. Watson was expected to take over for Savage at some point this season, but the Texans probably didn’t want to have to turn to him after just two quarters, so it’s fair to question his readiness, especially since he has to go on the road on a short week and face an above average defense. His second half performance last week was uninspiring and his mobility could be limited after suffering an ankle injury towards the end of the game last week.

That could prove to be a significant injury because his mobility is probably his best asset at this point, especially given how little time this offensive line figures to give him in the pocket. Without Brown and Allen, arguably their best two offensive lineman, the Texans probably have the worst offensive line in football. They also don’t have anything resembling a capable #2 receiving option after DeAndre Hopkins and will likely have to start a practice squad player at tight end. All this inexperience on the road on a short week could prove to be a major problem against a more established Cincinnati team and it’s really unclear how they plan on moving the ball.

The Bengals are getting healthier and should bounce back and win this game pretty easily, but 30% of games are decided by 4 points or less, so it’s tough to be really confident in Cincinnati as 5 point favorites, especially since the Texans’ defensive line should dominate the Bengals’ weak offensive line and could single handedly keep them in this game if they can give Andy Dalton trouble in the pocket. I still give the Bengals’ offensive line a better chance against Houston’s defensive line than I give the Texans’ offensive line against Cincinnati’s defensive line though. This is a low confidence pick which could become a medium confidence pick if the lines moves in a favorable direction.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

CLE +7.5 @ BAL (I’d take +7 too)

PHI +5 @ KC (I’d take this one down to +4)

WAS +3 @ LAR

Cincinnati Bengals 17 Houston Texans 9

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -5

Confidence: Low

2017 Week 1 NFL Pick Results

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2017

Straight Up: 9-6

Against the Spread: 7-8

Pick of the Week: 1-0

High Confidence: 2-1

Medium Confidence: 1-2

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 4-3

Low Confidence: 2-1

No Confidence: 1-4

Upset Picks: 1-2

Since 2013

Straight Up: 685-394-4 (63.43%)

Against the Spread: 559-496-28 (52.91%)

Pick of the Week: 41-28-2 (59.15%)

High Confidence: 61-49-3 (55.31%)

Medium Confidence: 167-121-5 (57.85%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 269-198-10 (57.44%)

Low Confidence: 147-146-9 (50.17%)

No Confidence: 143-152-9 (48.52%)

Upset Picks: 89-113 (44.06%)